Search results for: risk curve analysis

Authors: Cinzia Carrodano, Dimitri Konstantas

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Risk is part of our lives. In today’s society risk is connected to our safety and safety has become a major priority in our life. Each person lives his/her life based on the evaluation of the risk he/she is ready to accept and sustain, and the level of safety he/she wishes to reach, based on highly personal criteria. The assessment of risk a person takes in a complex environment and the impact of actions of other people’actions and events on our perception of risk are alements to be considered. The concept of Holistic Risk Assessment (HRA) aims in developing a methodology and a model that will allow us to take into account elements outside the direct influence of the individual, and provide a personalized risk assessment. The concept is based on the fact that in the near future, we will be able to gather and process extremely large amounts of data about an individual and his/her environment in real time. The interaction and correlation of these data is the key element of the holistic risk assessment. In this paper, we present the HRA concept and describe the most important elements and considerations.

Keywords: continuous data, dynamic risk, holistic risk assessment, risk concept

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Authors: Dan James

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The Medial Axis of the Main Canyon of Valles Marineris is determined geometrically with maximally inscribed discs aligned with the boundaries or rims of the Main Canyon. Inscribed discs are placed at evenly spaced longitude intervals and, using the radius function, the locus of the centre of all discs is determined, together with disc centre co-ordinates. These centre co-ordinates result in arrays of x, y co-ordinates which are curve fitted to a Sinusoidal function and residuals appropriate for nonlinear regression are evaluated using the R-squared value (R2) and the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). This evaluation demonstrates that a Sinusoidal Curve closely fits to the co-ordinate data

Keywords: medial axis, MAT, valles marineris, sinusoidal

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Authors: Ankit Tyagi, Reet Kamal Tiwari, Naveen James

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In India, landslides are the most frequently occurring disaster in the regions of the Himalayas and the Western Ghats. The steep slopes and land use in these areas are quite apprehensive. In the recent past, many landslide hazard zonation (LHZ) works have been carried out in the Himalayas. However, the preparation of LHZ maps considering temporal factors such as seismic ground shaking, seismic amplification at surface level, and rainfall are limited. Hence this study presents a comprehensive use of the multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method in landslide risk assessment. In this research, we conducted both geospatial and geotechnical analysis to minimize the danger of landslides. Geospatial analysis is performed using high-resolution satellite data to produce landslide causative factors which were given weightage using the MCDM method. The geotechnical analysis includes a slope stability check, which was done to determine the potential landslide slope. The landslide risk map can provide useful information which helps people to understand the risk of living in an area.

Keywords: landslide hazard zonation, PHA, AHP, GIS

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Authors: Szu-Hua Wang

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Urban ecosystems, as complex coupled human-environment systems, contain abundant natural resources for breeding natural assets and, at the same time, attract urban assets and consume natural resources, triggered by urban development. Land use change illustrates the interaction between human activities and environments factually. However, IPCC (2014) announces that land use change and urbanization due to human activities are the major cause of climate change, leading to serious impacts on urban ecosystem resilience and risk. For this reason, risk assessment and resilience analysis are the keys for responding to climate change on urban ecosystems. Urban spatial planning can guide urban development by land use planning, transportation planning, and environmental planning and affect land use allocation and human activities by building major constructions and protecting important national land resources simultaneously. Urban spatial planning can aggravate climate change and, on the other hand, mitigate and adapt climate change. Research on effects of spatial planning on land use change and climate change is one of intense issues currently. Therefore, this research focuses on developing frameworks for risk assessment and resilience analysis from the aspect of ecosystem based on typhoon precipitation in Taipei area. The integrated method of risk assessment and resilience analysis will be also addressed for applying spatial planning practice and sustainable development.

Keywords: ecosystem, land use change, risk analysis, resilience

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Authors: Olaniyi O. Omoyajowo

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To be successful in today’s competitive global environment, manufacturing industry must be able to respond quickly to changes in technology. These changes in technology introduce new risks and hazards. The management of risk/hazard in a manufacturing process recommends method through which the success rate of an organization can be increased. Thus, there is a continual need for manufacturing industries to invest significant amount of resources in risk management, which in turn optimizes the production output and profitability of any manufacturing industry (if implemented properly). To help improve the existing risk prevention and mitigation practices in Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) in Nigeria Manufacturing Industries (NMI), the researcher embarks on this research to develop a systematic Risk Management process.

Keywords: manufacturing management, risk, risk management, SMEs

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Authors: Ritsuko Kawasaki, Takeshi Hiromatsu

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Management is required to understand all information security risks within an organization, and to make decisions on which information security risks should be treated in what level by allocating how much amount of cost. However, such decision-making is not usually easy, because various measures for risk treatment must be selected with the suitable application levels. In addition, some measures may have objectives conflicting with each other. It also makes the selection difficult. Therefore, this paper provides a model which supports the selection of measures by applying multi-objective analysis to find an optimal solution. Additionally, a list of measures is also provided to make the selection easier and more effective without any leakage of measures.

Keywords: information security risk treatment, selection of risk measures, risk acceptance, multi-objective optimization

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Authors: Bashara Want

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One of the key factors limiting the performance of magnetic memory is that the coercivity has a distribution with finite width, and the reversal starts at the weakest link in the distribution. So one must first know the distribution of coercivities in order to learn how to reduce the width of distribution and increase the coercivity field to obtain a system with narrow width. First Order Reversal Curve (FORC) method characterizes a system with hysteresis via the distribution of local coercivities and, in addition, the local interaction field. The method is more versatile than usual conventional major hysteresis loops that give only the statistical behaviour of the magnetic system. The FORC method will be presented and discussed at the conference.

Keywords: magnetic materials, hysteresis, first-order reversal curve method, nanostructures

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Authors: Tea Poklepović, Zdravka Aljinović, Branka Marasović

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Due to the importance of yield curve and its estimation it is inevitable to have valid methods for yield curve forecasting in cases when there are scarce issues of securities and/or week trade on a secondary market. Therefore in this paper, after the estimation of weekly yield curves on Croatian financial market from October 2011 to August 2012 using Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models, yield curves are forecasted using Vector auto-regressive model and Neural networks. In general, it can be concluded that both forecasting methods have good prediction abilities where forecasting of yield curves based on Nelson Siegel estimation model give better results in sense of lower Mean Squared Error than forecasting based on Svensson model Also, in this case Neural networks provide slightly better results. Finally, it can be concluded that most appropriate way of yield curve prediction is neural networks using Nelson-Siegel estimation of yield curves.

Keywords: Nelson-Siegel Model, neural networks, Svensson Model, vector autoregressive model, yield curve

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Authors: Martin Kendra, Jaroslav Mašek, Juraj Čamaj, Matej Babin

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The railway transport is considered as a one of the most environmentally friendly mode of transport. With future prediction of increasing of freight transport there are lines facing problems with demanded capacity. Increase of the track capacity could be achieved by infrastructure constructive adjustments. The contribution shows how the travel time can be minimized and the track capacity increased by changing some of the basic infrastructure and operation parameters, for example, the minimal curve radius of the track, the number of tracks, or the usable track length at stations. Calculation of the necessary parameter changes is based on the fundamental physical laws applied to the train movement, and calculation of the occupation time is dependent on the changes of controlling the traffic between the stations.

Keywords: curve radius, maximum curve speed, track mass capacity, reconstruction

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Authors: Saadia Drissi

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The cloud computing is an innovative paradigm that introduces several changes in technology that have resulted a new ways for cloud providers to deliver their services to cloud consumers mainly in term of security risk assessment, thus, adapting a current risk assessment tools to cloud computing is a very difficult task due to its several characteristics that challenge the effectiveness of risk assessment approaches. As consequence, there is a need of risk assessment model adapted to cloud computing. This paper requires a new risk assessment model based on multi-agent system and AHP model as fundamental steps towards the development of flexible risk assessment approach regarding cloud consumers.

Keywords: cloud computing, risk assessment model, multi-agent system, AHP model, cloud consumer

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Authors: Ya-Fen Lee, Yun-Yao Chi

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The study aims to explore the relationship between risk perceptions of rockfall and revisit intention using a Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) analysis. A total of 573 valid questionnaires are collected from travelers to Taroko National Park, Taiwan. The findings show the majority of travellers have the medium perception of rockfall risk, and are willing to revisit the Taroko National Park. The revisit intention to Taroko National Park is influenced by hazardous preferences, willingness-to-pay, obstruction and attraction. The risk perception has an indirect effect on revisit intention through influencing willingness-to-pay. The study results can be a reference for mitigation the rockfall disaster.

Keywords: risk perception, rockfall, revisit intention, structural equation modelling

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Authors: Faiz N. K. Yusufi, Aquil Ahmed, Jamal Ahmad

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Predicting the risk of diabetic retinopathy (DR) in Indian type 2 diabetes patients is immensely necessary. India, being the second largest country after China in terms of a number of diabetic patients, to the best of our knowledge not a single risk score for complications has ever been investigated. Diabetic retinopathy is a serious complication and is the topmost reason for visual impairment across countries. Any type or form of DR has been taken as the event of interest, be it mild, back, grade I, II, III, and IV DR. A sample was determined and randomly collected from the Rajiv Gandhi Centre for Diabetes and Endocrinology, J.N.M.C., A.M.U., Aligarh, India. Collected variables include patients data such as sex, age, height, weight, body mass index (BMI), blood sugar fasting (BSF), post prandial sugar (PP), glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), systolic blood pressure (SBP), smoking, alcohol habits, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high density lipoprotein (HDL), low density lipoprotein (LDL), very low density lipoprotein (VLDL), physical activity, duration of diabetes, diet control, history of antihypertensive drug treatment, family history of diabetes, waist circumference, hip circumference, medications, central obesity and history of DR. Cox proportional hazard regression is used to design risk scores for the prediction of retinopathy. Model calibration and discrimination are assessed from Hosmer Lemeshow and area under receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). Overfitting and underfitting of the model are checked by applying regularization techniques and best method is selected between ridge, lasso and elastic net regression. Optimal cut off point is chosen by Youden’s index. Five-year probability of DR is predicted by both survival function, and Markov chain two state model and the better technique is concluded. The risk scores developed can be applied by doctors and patients themselves for self evaluation. Furthermore, the five-year probabilities can be applied as well to forecast and maintain the condition of patients. This provides immense benefit in real application of DR prediction in T2DM.

Keywords: Cox proportional hazard regression, diabetic retinopathy, ROC curve, type 2 diabetes mellitus

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Authors: Joseph Uche Azubike, Evelyn Ngozi Agbasi, M. I. Ogbonna

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The audit committee of the board of directors could no longer handle the enterprise's risks. Therefore, a risk management committee was created to control them. Thus, this study examined how enterprise risk management committee characteristics affected Nigerian exchange-listed banks' financial performance from 2013 to 2022. The study's hypotheses and three objectives were to determine how enterprise risk management committee size, composition, and gender diversity affect Nigerian banks' performance. An ex-post facto study design collected secondary data from bank annual reports. We used descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, and Ordinary least square regression to analyze panel data. Enterprise risk management committee size and composition had both negative and no significant effect on bank financial performance in Nigeria, whereas enterprise risk committee gender diversity has a 10% favorable effect. The report advises that adding more women with relevant knowledge to the risk committee to boost performance and allowing women to be at the lead of such risk management could improve bank performance in Nigeria since they are noted to be thorough in their tasks.

Keywords: bank, committee, enterprise, management, performance, risk

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Authors: Tio Novita Efriani

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Public sector organizations work in a complex and risky environment. Since the beginning of 2000s, the public sector has paid attention to the need for an effective risk management. The Indonesian public sector has also concerned about this issue and in 2008 it enacted the Government Regulation that gives mandate for the implementation of risk management in government organizations. This paper investigates risk management implementation in the Indonesian public sector organizations and the role of transformational leadership and internal audit activities. Data was collected via survey. A total of 202 effective responses (30% response rate) from employees in 34 government ministries were statistically analyzed by using Partial least square structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) and the software was SmartPLS 3.0. All the constructs were lower order, except for the risk management implementation construct, which was treated as a second-order construct. A two-stage approach was employed in the analysis of the higher order component. The findings revealed that transformational leadership positively influence risk management implementation. The findings also found that the core and legitimate roles of internal audit in risk management positively affect the implementation of risk management. The final finding showed that internal auditing mediates a relationship between transformational leadership and risk management implementation. These results suggest that the implementation of risk management in the Indonesian public sector was significantly supported by internal auditors and leadership. The findings confirm the importance of transformational leadership and internal audit in the public sector risk management strategies.

Keywords: Indonesian public sector, internal audit, risk management, transformational leadership

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Authors: Isabela Moreira Queiroz

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Slope stability analyses are largely carried out by deterministic methods and evaluated through a single security factor. Although it is known that the geotechnical parameters can present great dispersal, such analyses are considered fixed and known. The probabilistic methods, in turn, incorporate the variability of input key parameters (random variables), resulting in a range of values of safety factors, thus enabling the determination of the probability of failure, which is an essential parameter in the calculation of the risk (probability multiplied by the consequence of the event). Among the probabilistic methods, there are three frequently used methods in geotechnical society: FOSM (First-Order, Second-Moment), Rosenblueth (Point Estimates) and Monte Carlo. This paper presents a comparison between the results from deterministic and probabilistic analyses (FOSM method, Monte Carlo and Rosenblueth) applied to a hypothetical slope. The end was held to evaluate the behavior of the slope and consequent risk analysis, which is used to calculate the risk and analyze their mitigation and control solutions. It can be observed that the results obtained by the three probabilistic methods were quite close. It should be noticed that the calculation of the risk makes it possible to list the priority to the implementation of mitigation measures. Therefore, it is recommended to do a good assessment of the geological-geotechnical model incorporating the uncertainty in viability, design, construction, operation and closure by means of risk management. 

Keywords: probabilistic methods, risk assessment, risk management, slope stability

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Authors: Princes Ann E. Prieto, Denise F. Alpuerto, John Rafael C. Unlayao, Neil Concibido, Monet Concepcion Maguyon-Detras

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Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) has been used in the virtual Process Hazard Analysis (PHA) of the Acetone production process through the dehydrogenation of isopropyl alcohol, for which very limited process risk assessment has been published. In this study, the potential failure modes, effects, and possible causes of selected major equipment in the process were identified. During the virtual FMEA mock sessions, the risks in the process were evaluated and recommendations to reduce and/or mitigate the process risks were formulated. The risk was estimated using the calculated risk priority number (RPN) and was classified into four (4) levels according to their effects on acetone production. Results of this study were also used to rank the criticality of equipment in the process based on the calculated criticality rating (CR). Bow tie diagrams were also created for the critical hazard scenarios identified in the study.

Keywords: chemical process safety, failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA), process hazard analysis (PHA), process safety management (PSM)

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Authors: R. Berglund, T. Backström, M. Bellgran

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This study explores how management addresses psychosocial risks in seven teams of engineers and technicians in the midst of the fourth industrial revolution. The sample is from an ongoing quasi-experiment about psychosocial risk management in a manufacturing company in Sweden. Each of the seven teams belongs to one of two clusters: a positive cluster or a negative cluster. The positive cluster reports a significantly positive change in psychosocial risk levels between two time-points and the negative cluster reports a significantly negative change. The data are collected using semi-structured interviews. The results of the computer aided thematic analysis show that there are more differences than similarities when comparing the risk treatment actions taken between the two clusters. Findings show that the managers in the positive cluster use more enabling actions that foster and support formal and informal relationship building. In contrast, managers that use less enabling actions hinder the development of positive group processes and contribute negative changes in psychosocial risk levels. This exploratory study sheds some light on how management can influence significant positive and negative changes in psychosocial risk levels during a risk management process.

Keywords: group process model, risk treatment, risk management, psychosocial

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Authors: Anders Troedsson

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For us humans, risk and insecurity are intimately linked to vulnerabilities - where there is vulnerability, there is potentially risk and insecurity. Reducing vulnerability through compensatory measures means decreasing the likelihood of a certain external event be qualified as a risk/threat/assault, and thus also means increasing the individual’s sense of security. The paper suggests that a meaningful way to approach the study of risk/ insecurity is to organize thinking about the vulnerabilities that external phenomena evoke in humans as perceived by them. Such phenomena are, through a set of given vulnerabilities, potentially translated into perceptions of "insecurity." An ontological discussion about salient timespace characteristics of external phenomena as perceived by humans, including such which potentially can be qualified as risk/threat/assault, leads to the positing of two dimensions which are central for describing what in the paper is called the essence of risk/threat/assault. As is argued, such modeling helps analysis steer free of the subjective factor which is intimately connected to human perception and which mediates between phenomena “out there” potentially identified as risk/threat/assault, and their translation into an experience of security or insecurity. A proposed set of universally given vulnerabilities are scrutinized with the help of the two dimensions, resulting in a modeling effort featuring four realms of vulnerabilities which together represent a dynamic whole. This model in turn informs modeling on human security.

Keywords: human vulnerabilities, human security, immediate-inert, material-immaterial, timespace

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Authors: B. Petrović, L. Rutonjski, M. Baucal, M. Teodorović, O. Čudić, B. Basarić

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Radiotherapy treatment planning computers use CT data of the patient. For the computation of a treatment plan, treatment planning system must have an information on electron densities of tissues scanned by CT. This information is given by the conversion curve CT (CT number) to ED (electron density), or simply calibration curve. Every treatment planning system (TPS) has built in default CT to ED conversion curves, for the CTs of different manufacturers. However, it is always recommended to verify the CT to ED conversion curve before actual clinical use. Objective of this study was to check how the default curve already provided matches the curve actually measured on a specific CT, and how much it influences the calculation of a treatment planning computer. The examined CT scanners were from the same manufacturer, but four different scanners from three generations. The measurements of all calibration curves were done with the dedicated phantom CIRS 062M Electron Density Phantom. The phantom was scanned, and according to real HU values read at the CT console computer, CT to ED conversion curves were generated for different materials, for same tube voltage 140 kV. Another phantom, CIRS Thorax 002 LFC which represents an average human torso in proportion, density and two-dimensional structure, was used for verification. The treatment planning was done on CT slices of scanned CIRS LFC 002 phantom, for selected cases. Interest points were set in the lungs, and in the spinal cord, and doses recorded in TPS. The overall calculated treatment times for four scanners and default scanner did not differ more than 0.8%. Overall interest point dose in bone differed max 0.6% while for single fields was maximum 2.7% (lateral field). Overall interest point dose in lungs differed max 1.1% while for single fields was maximum 2.6% (lateral field). It is known that user should verify the CT to ED conversion curve, but often, developing countries are facing lack of QA equipment, and often use default data provided. We have concluded that the CT to ED curves obtained differ in certain points of a curve, generally in the region of higher densities. This influences the treatment planning result which is not significant, but definitely does make difference in the calculated dose.

Keywords: Computation of treatment plan, conversion curve, radiotherapy, electron density

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Authors: Adel Ali Elshaibani

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Risk management indicators augment the reporting infrastructure, particularly for the board and senior management, to identify, monitor, and manage risks. This enhancement facilitates improved decision-making throughout the banking organization. Decision tree analysis is a tool that visually outlines potential outcomes, costs, and consequences of complex decisions. It is particularly beneficial for analyzing quantitative data and making decisions based on numerical values. By calculating the expected value of each outcome, decision tree analysis can help assess the best course of action. In the context of banking, decision tree analysis can assist lenders in evaluating a customer’s creditworthiness, thereby preventing losses. However, applying these tools in developing countries may face several limitations, such as data availability, lack of technological infrastructure and resources, lack of skilled professionals, cultural factors, and cost. Moreover, decision trees can create overly complex models that do not generalize well to new data, known as overfitting. They can also be sensitive to small changes in the data, which can result in different tree structures and can become computationally expensive when dealing with large datasets. In conclusion, while risk management indicators and decision tree analysis are beneficial for decision-making in banks, their effectiveness is contingent upon how they are implemented and utilized by the board of directors, especially in the context of developing countries. It’s important to consider these limitations when planning to implement these tools in developing countries.

Keywords: risk management indicators, decision tree analysis, developing countries, board of directors, bank performance, risk management strategy, banking institutions

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Authors: Eun-Jun Yoon

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Deniable authentication protocol is a new security authentication mechanism which can enable a receiver to identify the true source of a given message, but not to prove the identity of the sender to a third party. In 2013, Kar proposed a secure ID-based deniable authentication protocol whose security is based on computational infeasibility of solving Elliptic Curve Diffie-Hellman Problem (ECDHP). Kar claimed that the proposed protocol achieves properties of deniable authentication, mutual authentication, and message confidentiality. However, this paper points out that Kar's protocol still suffers from sender spoofing attack and message modification attack unlike its claims.

Keywords: deniable authentication, elliptic curve cryptography, Diffie-Hellman problem, cryptanalysis

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Authors: Mohamed Anouar Razgallah

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This paper examines in the context of a one-period model the impact of background risk on the optimal secondary prevention. We conduct our study based on various configurations of the background risk. We intend to show that in most cases the level of secondary prevention effort varied after the introduction of background risk, however, in very few cases this level remains constant.

Keywords: secondary prevention, primary prevention, background risk, ecomomics

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Authors: Y. K. Park, B. K. Kim, J. W. Lee, S. J. Lee

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To assess the risk of the underground structures and surrounding ground, we collect basic data by the engineering method of measurement, exploration and surveys and, derive the risk through proper analysis and each assessment for urban railroad underground structures and surrounding ground including station inflow. Basic data are obtained by the fiber-optic sensors, MEMS sensors, water quantity/quality sensors, tunnel scanner, ground penetrating radar, light weight deflectometer, and are evaluated if they are more than the proper value or not. Based on these data, we analyze the risk level of urban railroad underground structures and surrounding ground. And we develop the risk management system to manage efficiently these data and to support a convenient interface environment at input/output of data.

Keywords: urban railroad, underground structures, ground subsidence, station inflow, risk

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Authors: William Wong, Zakaria Alomari, Hon Ching Lai, Zhida Li

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Modern-day information security depends on implementing Diffie-Hellman, which requires the generation of prime numbers. Because the number of primes is infinite, it is impractical to store prime numbers for use, and therefore, primality tests are indispensable in modern-day information security. A primality test is a test to determine whether a number is prime or composite. There are two types of primality tests, which are deterministic tests and probabilistic tests. Deterministic tests are adopting algorithms that provide a definite answer whether a given number is prime or composite. While in probabilistic tests, a probabilistic result would be provided, there is a degree of uncertainty. In this paper, we review three probabilistic tests: the Fermat Primality Test, the Miller-Rabin Test, and the Baillie-PSW Test, as well as one deterministic test, the Agrawal-Kayal-Saxena (AKS) Test. Furthermore, we do an analysis of these tests. All of the reviews discussed are not based on the Elliptic Curve. The analysis demonstrates that, in the majority of real-world scenarios, the Baillie- PSW test’s favorability stems from its typical operational complexity of O(log 3n) and its capacity to deliver accurate results for numbers below 2^64.

Keywords: primality tests, Fermat’s primality test, Miller-Rabin primality test, Baillie-PSW primality test, AKS primality test

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Authors: E. Akpinar, A. Erol, M.F. Cakir

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Precast reinforced concrete (RC) structures are excellent alternatives for construction world all over the globe, thanks to their rapid erection phase, ease mounting process, better quality and reasonable prices. Such structures are rather popular for industrial buildings. For the sake of economic importance of such industrial buildings as well as significance of safety, like every other type of structures, performance assessment and structural risk analysis are important. Fragility curves are powerful tools for damage projection and assessment for any sort of building as well as precast structures. In this study, a comparative review of current knowledge on fragility analysis of industrial precast RC structures were presented and findings in previous studies were compiled. Effects of different structural variables, parameters and building geometries as well as soil conditions on fragility analysis of precast structures are reviewed. It was aimed to briefly present the information in the literature about the procedure of damage probability prediction including fragility curves for such industrial facilities. It is found that determination of the aforementioned structural parameters as well as selecting analysis procedure are critically important for damage prediction of industrial precast RC structures using fragility curves.

Keywords: damage prediction, fragility curve, industrial buildings, precast reinforced concrete structures

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Authors: Soon-Mi Park, Ihn Sook Jeong

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This retrospective study was aimed to identify risk factors of intravenous (IV) infiltration for hospitalized children. The participants were 1,174 children for test and 424 children for validation, who admitted to a general hospital, received peripheral intravenous injection therapy at least once and had complete records. Data were analyzed with frequency and percentage or mean and standard deviation were calculated, and decision tree analysis was used to screen for the most important risk factors for IV infiltration for hospitalized children. The decision tree analysis showed that the most important traditional risk factors for IV infiltration were the use of ampicillin/sulbactam, IV insertion site (lower extremities), and medical department (internal medicine) both in the test sample and validation sample. The correct classification was 92.2% in the test sample and 90.1% in the validation sample. More careful attention should be made to patients who are administered ampicillin/sulbactam, have IV site in lower extremities and have internal medical problems to prevent or detect infiltration occurrence.

Keywords: decision tree analysis, intravenous infiltration, child, validation

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Authors: Rao Fu, Jie Chen, Shutian Zeng, Yiping Zhuang, Agus Sudjianto

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Generative Adversarial Net (GAN) has proved to be a powerful machine learning tool in image data analysis and generation. In this paper, we propose to use Conditional Generative Adversarial Net (CGAN) to learn and simulate time series data. The conditions include both categorical and continuous variables with different auxiliary information. Our simulation studies show that CGAN has the capability to learn different types of normal and heavy-tailed distributions, as well as dependent structures of different time series. It also has the capability to generate conditional predictive distributions consistent with training data distributions. We also provide an in-depth discussion on the rationale behind GAN and the neural networks as hierarchical splines to establish a clear connection with existing statistical methods of distribution generation. In practice, CGAN has a wide range of applications in market risk and counterparty risk analysis: it can be applied to learn historical data and generate scenarios for the calculation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES), and it can also predict the movement of the market risk factors. We present a real data analysis including a backtesting to demonstrate that CGAN can outperform Historical Simulation (HS), a popular method in market risk analysis to calculate VaR. CGAN can also be applied in economic time series modeling and forecasting. In this regard, we have included an example of hypothetical shock analysis for economic models and the generation of potential CCAR scenarios by CGAN at the end of the paper.

Keywords: conditional generative adversarial net, market and credit risk management, neural network, time series

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Authors: Rong Wang, Sandra Hasanefendic, Elizabeth von Hauff, Bart Bossink

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Technological learning and learning curve models have been continuously used to estimate the photovoltaics (PV) cost development over time for the climate mitigation targets. They can integrate a number of technological learning sources which influence the learning process. Yet the accuracy and realistic predictions for cost estimations of PV development are still difficult to achieve. This paper develops four hypothetical-alternative learning curve models by proposing different combinations of technological learning sources, including both local and global technology experience and the knowledge stock. This paper specifically focuses on the non-linear relationship between the costs and technological learning source and their dynamic interaction and uses the system dynamics approach to predict a more accurate PV cost estimation for future development. As the case study, the data from China is gathered and drawn to illustrate that the learning curve model that incorporates both the global and local experience is more accurate and realistic than the other three models for PV cost estimation. Further, absorbing and integrating the global experience into the local industry has a positive impact on PV cost reduction. Although the learning curve model incorporating knowledge stock is not realistic for current PV cost deployment in China, it still plays an effective positive role in future PV cost reduction.

Keywords: photovoltaic, system dynamics, technological learning, learning curve

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Authors: Uche A. Ibekwe

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Pension funds are pooled assets which are established to provide income for retirees. The funds are usually regulated to check excessive risk taking by fund managers. In Nigeria, the current defined contribution (DC) pension scheme appears to contain some overly stringent restrictions which might be hampering its successful implementation. Notable among these restrictions is the 25 percent maximum limit on investment in ordinary shares of quoted companies. This paper examines the extent to which these restrictions affect pension replacement rates at retirement. The study made use of both simulated and historical asset return distributions using mean-variance, regression analysis and ruin-risk analyses, the study found that the current equity investment restriction policy in Nigeria reduces replacement rates at retirement.

Keywords: equity investment, replacement rates, restrictions, ruin-risk

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Authors: Charles Amoatey

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The issue of risk in the mining industry is a global phenomenon and the Ghanaian mining industry is not exempted. The main purpose of this study is to identify the critical risk factors affecting the mining industry. The study takes an integrated view of the mining industry by examining the contribution of various risk factors to mining project failure in Ghana. A questionnaire survey was conducted to solicit the critical risk factors from key mining practitioners. About 80 respondents from 11 mining firms participated in the survey. The study identified 22 risk factors contributing to mining project failure in Ghana. The five most critical risk factors based on both probability of occurrence and impact were: (1) unstable commodity prices, (2) inflation/exchange rate, (3) land degradation, (4) high cost of living and (5) government bureaucracy for obtaining licenses. Furthermore, the study found that risk assessment in the mining sector has a direct link with mining project sustainability. Mitigation measures for addressing the identified risk factors were discussed. The key findings emphasize the need for a comprehensive risk management culture in the entire mining industry.

Keywords: risk, assessment, mining, Ghana

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