Search results for: Markov Chains

Authors: Kamalendu Pal

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Supply chains are the spinal cord of trade and commerce. Their logistics use different transport corridors on regular basis for operational purpose. The international supply chain transport corridors include different infrastructure elements (e.g. weighbridge, package handling equipment, border clearance authorities, and so on) in supply chains. This paper presents the use of multi-agent systems (MAS) to model and simulate some aspects of transportation corridors, and in particular the area of weighbridge resource optimization for operational profit generation purpose. An underlying multi-agent model provides a means of modeling the relationships among stakeholders in order to enable coordination in a transport corridor environment. Simulations of the costs of container unloading, reloading, and waiting time for queuing up tracks have been carried out using data sets. Results of the simulation provide the potential guidance in making decisions about optimal service resource allocation in a trade corridor.

Keywords: multi-agent systems, simulation, supply chain, transport corridor, weighbridge

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Authors: Süleyman Günes

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The crucial effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have on social and economic systems in Turkey as well as all over the world. It has impacted logistic providers and worldwide supply chains. Unexpected risks played a central role in creating vulnerabilities for logistics service operations during the pandemic terms. This study aims to research and design qualitative and quantitive contributions to logistic services. The COVID-19 pandemic brought unavoidable risks to the logistics industry in Turkey. The Logistic Service Providers (LSPs) have learned how to ensure uncertainties and risks triggered by main and adverse effects. The risks that LSPs encounter during the COVID-19 pandemic have been investigated and unveiled, and identified uncertainties and risks. The cause-effect structures were displayed by the qualitative and quantitive studies. The results suggest that supply chains and demand changes triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic while it influenced financial failure and forecast horizon with operational performances.

Keywords: logistic service providers, COVID-19, development, financial failure

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Authors: Ahmed Al-Adaileh

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Renewable energy sources, domestic storage systems, controllable loads and machine learning technologies will be key components of future smart homes management systems. An energy management scheme that uses a Deep Learning (DL) approach to support the smart home management systems, which consist of a standalone photovoltaic system, storage unit, heating ventilation air-conditioning system and a set of conventional and smart appliances, is presented. The objective of the proposed scheme is to apply DL-based machine learning to predict various running parameters within a smart home's environment to achieve maximum comfort levels for occupants, reduced electricity bills, and less dependency on the public grid. The problem is using Reinforcement learning, where decisions are taken based on applying the Continuous-time Markov Decision Process. The main contribution of this research is the proposed framework that applies DL to enhance the system's supervised dataset to offer unlimited chances to effectively support smart home systems. A case study involving a set of conventional and smart appliances with dedicated processing units in an inhabited building can demonstrate the validity of the proposed framework. A visualization graph can show "before" and "after" results.

Keywords: smart homes systems, machine learning, deep learning, Markov Decision Process

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Authors: Ofosuhene O. Apenteng, Noor Azina Ismail

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Over the last several years, concern has developed over how to minimize the spread of HIV/AIDS epidemic in many countries. AIDS epidemic has tremendously stimulated the development of mathematical models of infectious diseases. The transmission dynamics of HIV infection that eventually developed AIDS has taken a pivotal role of much on building mathematical models. From the initial HIV and AIDS models introduced in the 80s, various improvements have been taken into account as how to model HIV/AIDS frameworks. In this paper, we present the impact of migration on the spread of HIV/AIDS. Epidemic model is considered by a system of nonlinear differential equations to supplement the statistical method approach. The model is calibrated using HIV incidence data from Malaysia between 1986 and 2011. Bayesian inference based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to validate the model by fitting it to the data and to estimate the unknown parameters for the model. The results suggest that the migrants stay for a long time contributes to the spread of HIV. The model also indicates that susceptible individual becomes infected and moved to HIV compartment at a rate that is more significant than the removal rate from HIV compartment to AIDS compartment. The disease-free steady state is unstable since the basic reproduction number is 1.627309. This is a big concern and not a good indicator from the public heath point of view since the aim is to stabilize the epidemic at the disease equilibrium.

Keywords: epidemic model, HIV, MCMC, parameter estimation

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Authors: Zerroug Abdelhamid, Danielle Chassoux

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Various models are given to simulate homogeneous or heterogeneous cancerous tumors and extract in each case the boundary. The fractal dimension is then estimated by least squares method and compared to some previous methods.

Keywords: simulation, cancerous tumor, Markov fields, fractal dimension, extraction, recovering

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Authors: Abdulkarem Qasem Dammag, Basema Qasim Dammag, Jian Dai

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Change in Land use and Land cover (LU/LC) has a profound impact on the area's natural, economic, and ecological development, and the search for drivers of land cover change is one of the fundamental issues of LU/LC change. The study aimed to assess the temporal and Spatio-temporal dynamics of LU/LC in the past and to predict the future using Landsat images by exploring the characteristics of different LU/LC types. Spatio-temporal patterns of LU/LC change in Ibb Governorate, Yemen, were analyzed based on RS and GIS from 1990, 2005, and 2020. A socioeconomic survey and key informant interviews were used to assess potential drivers of LU/LC. The results showed that from 1990 to 2020, the total area of vegetation land decreased by 5.3%, while the area of barren land, grassland, built-up area, and waterbody increased by 2.7%, 1.6%, 1.04%, and 0.06%, respectively. Based on socio-economic surveys and key informant interviews, natural factors had a significant and long-term impact on land change. In contrast, site construction and socio-economic factors were the main driving forces affecting land change in a short time scale. The analysis results have been linked to the CA-Markov Land Use simulation and forecasting model for the years 2035 and 2050. The simulation results revealed from the period 2020 to 2050, the trend of dynamic changes in land use, where the total area of barren land decreased by 7.0% and grassland by 0.2%, while the vegetation land, built-up area, and waterbody increased by 4.6%, 2.6%, and 0.1 %, respectively. Overall, these findings provide LULC's past and future trends and identify drivers, which can play an important role in sustainable land use planning and management by balancing and coordinating urban growth and land use and can also be used at the regional level in different levels to provide as a reference. In addition, the results provide scientific guidance to government departments and local decision-makers in future land-use planning through dynamic monitoring of LU/LC change.

Keywords: LU/LC change, CA-Markov model, driving forces, change detection, LU/LC change simulation

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Authors: Penina Orenstein

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In today’s world, particularly with COVID-19 a constant worldwide threat, organizations need greater visibility over their supply chains more than ever before, in order to find areas for improvement and greater efficiency, reduce the chances of disruption and stay competitive. The concept of supply chain mapping is one where every process and route is mapped in detail between each vendor and supplier. The simplest method of mapping involves sourcing publicly available data including news and financial information concerning relationships between suppliers. An additional layer of information would be disclosed by large, direct suppliers about their production and logistics sites. While this method has the advantage of not requiring any input from suppliers, it also doesn’t allow for much transparency beyond the first supplier tier and may generate irrelevant data—noise—that must be filtered out to find the actionable data. The primary goal of this research is to build data maps of supply chains by focusing on a layered approach. Using these maps, the secondary goal is to address the question as to whether the supply chain is re-engineered to make improvements, for example, to lower the carbon footprint. Using a drill-down approach, the end result is a comprehensive map detailing the linkages between tier-one, tier-two, and tier-three suppliers super-imposed on a geographical map. The driving force behind this idea is to be able to trace individual parts to the exact site where they’re manufactured. In this way, companies can ensure sustainability practices from the production of raw materials through the finished goods. The approach allows companies to identify and anticipate vulnerabilities in their supply chain. It unlocks predictive analytics capabilities and enables them to act proactively. The research is particularly compelling because it unites network science theory with empirical data and presents the results in a visual, intuitive manner.

Keywords: data mining, supply chain, empirical research, data mapping

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Authors: Marianna I. Triantou, Konstantina I. Stathi, Petroula A. Tarantili

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In the present study, the incorporation of graphene into blends of acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene terpolymer with polypropylene (ABS/PP) was investigated focusing on the improvement of their thermomechanical characteristics and the effect on their rheological behavior. The blends were prepared by melt mixing in a twin-screw extruder and were characterized by measuring the MFI as well as by performing DSC, TGA and mechanical tests. The addition of graphene to ABS/PP blends tends to increase their melt viscosity, due to the confinement of polymer chains motion. Also, graphene causes an increment of the crystallization temperature (Tc), especially in blends with higher PP content, because of the reduction of surface energy of PP nucleation, which is a consequence of the attachment of PP chains to the surface of graphene through the intermolecular CH-π interaction. Moreover, the above nanofiller improves the thermal stability of PP and increases the residue of thermal degradation at all the investigated compositions of blends, due to the thermal isolation effect and the mass transport barrier effect. Regarding the mechanical properties, the addition of graphene improves the elastic modulus, because of its intrinsic mechanical characteristics and its rigidity, and this effect is particularly strong in the case of pure PP.

Keywords: acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene terpolymer, blends, graphene, polypropylene

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Authors: Hiroyuki Aoki, Toru Asada, Tomomi Tanii

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The properties of a spin-cast film of a polymer material are different from those in the bulk material because the polymer chains are frozen in an un-equilibrium state due to the rapid evaporation of the solvent. However, there has been little information on the un-equilibrated conformation and dynamics in a spin-cast film at the single chain level. The real-space observation of individual chains would provide direct information to discuss the morphology and dynamics of single polymer chains. The recent development of super-resolution fluorescence microscopy methods allows the conformational analysis of single polymer chain. In the current study, the conformation of a polymer chain in a spin-cast film by the super-resolution microscopy. Poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) with the molecular weight of 2.2 x 10^6 was spin-cast onto a glass substrate from toluene and chloroform. For the super-resolution fluorescence imaging, a small amount of the PMMA labeled by rhodamine spiroamide dye was added. The radius of gyration (Rg) was evaluated from the super-resolution fluorescence image of each PMMA chain. The mean-square-root of Rg was 48.7 and 54.0 nm in the spin-cast films prepared from the toluene and chloroform solutions, respectively. On the other hand, the chain dimension in a bulk state (a thermally annealed 10- μm-thick sample) was observed to be 43.1 nm. This indicates that the PMMA chain in the spin-cast film takes an expanded conformation compared to the unperturbed chain and that the chain dimension is dependent on the solvent quality. In a good solvent, the PMMA chain has an expanded conformation by the excluded volume effect. The polymer chain is frozen before the relaxation from an un-equilibrated expanded conformation to an unperturbed one by the rapid solvent evaporation.

Keywords: chain conformation, polymer thin film, spin-coating, super-resolution optical microscopy

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Authors: Golnar Behzadi, Michael O'Sullivan, Tava Olsen, Abraham Zhang

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By definition, increasing supply chain resilience improves the supply chain’s ability to return to normal, or to an even more desirable situation, quickly and efficiently after being hit by a disruption. This is especially critical in agribusiness supply chains where the products are perishable and have a short life-cycle. In this paper, we propose a resilience metric to capture and improve the recovery process in terms of both performance and time, of an agribusiness supply chain following either supply or demand-side disruption. We build a model that determines optimal supply chain recovery planning decisions and selects the best resilient strategies that minimize the loss of profit during the recovery time window. The model is formulated as a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer linear programming problem and solved with a branch-and-cut algorithm. The results show that the optimal recovery schedule is highly dependent on the duration of the time-window allowed for recovery. In addition, the profit loss during recovery is reduced by utilizing the proposed resilient actions.

Keywords: agribusiness supply chain, recovery, resilience metric, risk management

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Authors: Ameen Alawneh

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The cost of material management across the supply chain represents a major contributor to the overall cost of goods in many companies both manufacturing and service sectors. This fact combined with the fierce competition make supply chains more efficient and cost effective. It also requires the companies to improve the quality of the products and services, increase the effectiveness of supply chain operations, focus on customer needs, reduce wastes and costs across the supply chain. As a heavy industry, steel manufacturing companies in particular are nowadays required to be more environmentally conscious due to their contribution to air, soil, and water pollution that results from emissions and wastes across their supply chains. Steel companies are increasingly looking for methods to reduce or cost cut in the operations and provide extra value to their customers to stay competitive under the current low margins. In this research we develop a green framework model for the sustainability of a steel company supply chain using Mixed integer Linear programming.

Keywords: Supply chain, Mixed Integer linear programming, heavy industry, water pollution

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Authors: Seyedvahid Najafi, Viliam Makis

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In recent years, maintenance optimization has attracted special attention due to the growth of industrial systems complexity. Maintenance costs are high for many systems, and preventive maintenance is effective when it increases operations' reliability and safety at a reduced cost. The novelty of this research is to consider general repair in the modeling of multi-unit series systems and solve the maintenance problem for such systems using the semi-Markov decision process (SMDP) framework. We propose an opportunistic maintenance policy for a series system composed of two main units. Unit 1, which is more expensive than unit 2, is subjected to condition monitoring, and its deterioration is modeled using a gamma process. Unit 1 hazard rate is estimated by the proportional hazards model (PHM), and two hazard rate control limits are considered as the thresholds of maintenance interventions for unit 1. Maintenance is performed on unit 2, considering an age control limit. The objective is to find the optimal control limits and minimize the long-run expected average cost per unit time. The proposed algorithm is applied to a numerical example to compare the effectiveness of the proposed policy (policy Ⅰ) with policy Ⅱ, which is similar to policy Ⅰ, but instead of general repair, replacement is performed. Results show that policy Ⅰ leads to lower average cost compared with policy Ⅱ. 

Keywords: condition-based maintenance, proportional hazards model, semi-Markov decision process, two-unit series systems

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Authors: Pubudu K. Hitigala Kaluarachchilage, Champike Attanayake, Sasith Rajasooriya, Chris P. Tsokos

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Operating system (OS) security is a key component of computer security. Assessing and improving OSs strength to resist against vulnerabilities and attacks is a mandatory requirement given the rate of new vulnerabilities discovered and attacks occurring. Frequency and the number of different kinds of vulnerabilities found in an OS can be considered an index of its information security level. In the present study five mostly used OSs, Microsoft Windows (windows 7, windows 8 and windows 10), Apple’s Mac and Linux are assessed for their discovered vulnerabilities and the risk associated with each. Each discovered and reported vulnerability has an exploitability score assigned in CVSS score of the national vulnerability database. In this study the risk from vulnerabilities in each of the five Operating Systems is compared. Risk Indexes used are developed based on the Markov model to evaluate the risk of each vulnerability. Statistical methodology and underlying mathematical approach is described. Initially, parametric procedures are conducted and measured. There were, however, violations of some statistical assumptions observed. Therefore the need for non-parametric approaches was recognized. 6838 vulnerabilities recorded were considered in the analysis. According to the risk associated with all the vulnerabilities considered, it was found that there is a statistically significant difference among average risk levels for some operating systems, indicating that according to our method some operating systems have been more risk vulnerable than others given the assumptions and limitations. Relevant test results revealing a statistically significant difference in the Risk levels of different OSs are presented.

Keywords: cybersecurity, Markov chain, non-parametric analysis, vulnerability, operating system

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Authors: Yohanes Kristianto

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The objective of this paper is to compose a sustainable supply chain that integrates product, process and networks design. An integrated life cycle assessment and techno-economic optimization is proposed that might deliver more economically feasible operations, minimizes environmental impacts and maximizes social contributions. Closed loop economy of the supply chain is achieved by reusing waste to be raw material of final products. Societal benefit is given by the supply chain by absorbing waste as source of raw material and opening new work opportunities. A case study of ethanol supply chain from rice straws is considered. The modeling results show that optimization within the scope of LCA is capable of minimizing both CO₂ emissions and energy and utility consumptions and thus enhancing raw materials utilization. Furthermore, the supply chain is capable of contributing to local economy through jobs creation. While the model is quite comprehensive, the future research recommendation on energy integration and global sustainability is proposed.

Keywords: life cycle assessment, techno-economic optimization, sustainable supply chains, closed loop economy

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Authors: Vivek Anand, Rainer Naegele

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Industry 4.0 envisages 'smart' manufacturing and services, taking the automation of the 3rd Industrial Revolution to the autonomy of the 4th Industrial Revolution. Powered by innovations in technology and business models, this disruptive transformation is revitalising industry by integrating silos across and beyond value chains. Motivated by the challenges faced by SMEs and Startups in understanding and adopting Industry 4.0, this paper aims to analyse the concept of Growth Poles and evaluate the possibility of its application to Innovation Clusters that strive to propel Industry 4.0 adoption and capacity building. The proposed paper applies qualitative research methodologies including focus groups and survey questionnaires to identify the various factors that affect formation and development of Innovation Clusters. Employing content analysis, the interaction between SMEs and other ecosystem players in such clusters is studied. A strong collaborative culture is a key driver of digital transformation and technology adoption across sectors, value chains and supply chains; and will position these cluster-based growth poles at the forefront of industrial renaissance. Motivated by this argument, and based on the results of the qualitative research, a roadmap will be proposed to position Innovation Clusters as Growth Poles and effective ecosystems to support Industry 4.0 adoption in a region in the medium to long term. This paper will contribute to the current understanding of the role of Innovation Clusters in capacity building. Relevant management and policy implications stem from the analysis. Furthermore, the findings will be helpful for academicians and policymakers alike, who can leverage an ‘innovation cluster policy’ to enable Industry 4.0 Growth Poles in their regions.

Keywords: digital transformation, fourth industrial revolution, growth poles, industry 4.0, innovation clusters, innovation policy, SMEs and startups

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Authors: A. S. Grewal, R. S. Sangwan, Dharambir, Vikas Dhanda

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The purpose of this paper is to develop and analyze two reliability models for a system of non-identical firearms – one is standard firearm (called as original unit) and the other is a country-made firearm (called as duplicate /substandard unit). There is a single server who comes immediately to do inspection and repair whenever needed. On the failure of standard firearm, the server inspects the operative country-made firearm to see whether the unit is capable of performing the desired function well or not. If country-made firearm is not capable to do so, the operation of the system is stopped and server starts repair of the standard firearms immediately. However, no inspection is done at the failure of the country-made firearm as the country-made firearm alone is capable of performing the given task well. In model I, priority to repair the standard firearm is given in case system fails completely and country-made firearm is already under repair, whereas in model II there is no such priority. The failure and repair times of each unit are assumed to be independent and uncorrelated random variables. The distributions of failure time of the units are taken as negative exponential while that of repair and inspection times are general. By using semi-Markov process and regenerative point technique some econo-reliability measures are obtained. Graphs are plotted to compare the MTSF (mean time to system failure), availability and profit of the models for a particular case.

Keywords: non-identical firearms, inspection, priority to repair, semi-Markov process, regenerative point

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Authors: Maryam Ghoreishi, Christian Larsen

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In this paper, we investigate the effect of stochastic inputs on problem of joint optimal pricing and lot-sizing decisions where the inventory cycle is divided into advance and spot sales periods. During the advance sales period, customer can make reservations while customer with reservations can cancel their order. However, during the spot sales period customers receive the order as soon as the order is placed, but they cannot make any reservation or cancellation during that period. We assume that the inter arrival times during the advance sales and spot sales period are exponentially distributed where the arrival rate is decreasing function of price. Moreover, we assume that the number of cancelled reservations is binomially distributed. In addition, we assume that deterioration process follows an exponential distribution. We investigate two cases. First, we consider two-state case where we find the optimal price during the spot sales period and the optimal price during the advance sales period. Next, we develop a generalized case where we extend two-state case also to allow dynamic prices during the spot sales period. We apply the Markov decision theory in order to find the optimal solutions. In addition, for the generalized case, we apply the policy iteration algorithm in order to find the optimal prices, the optimal lot-size and maximum advance sales amount.

Keywords: inventory control, pricing, Markov decision theory, advance sales system

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Authors: Jingya Liu, Yue Wu, Jiabin Luo

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This work investigates an intermodal transportation system for delivering goods from a Regional Distribution Centre to supermarkets on the Isle of Wight (IOW) via the port of Southampton or Portsmouth in the UK. We consider this integrated logistics chain as a 3-echelon transportation system. In such a system, there are two types of transport methods used to deliver goods across the Solent Channel: one is accompanied transport, which is used by most supermarkets on the IOW, such as Spar, Lidl and Co-operative food; the other is unaccompanied transport, which is used by Aldi. Five transport scenarios are studied based on different transport modes and ferry routes. The aim is to determine an optimal delivery plan for supermarkets of different business scales on IOW, in order to minimise the total running cost, fuel consumptions and carbon emissions. The problem is modelled as a vehicle routing problem with time windows and solved by genetic algorithm. The computing results suggested that accompanied transport is more cost efficient for small and medium business-scale supermarket chains on IOW, while unaccompanied transport has the potential to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of large business scale supermarket chains.

Keywords: genetic algorithm, intermodal transport system, Isle of Wight, optimization, supermarket

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Authors: Wenjin Zhu, Ian E. Jacobs, Henning Sirringhaus

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We have demonstrated a model system for the controlled incorporation of tie-chains into semicrystalline conjugated polymers using blends of different molecular weights that leads to a significant increase in electrical conductivity. Through careful assessment of the microstructural evolution upon tie chain incorporation we have demonstrated that no major changes in phase morphology or structural order in the crystalline domains occur and that the observed enhancement in electrical conductivity can only be explained consistently by tie chains facilitating the transport across grain boundaries between the crystalline domains. Here we studied the thermoelectric properties of aligned, ion exchange-doped ribbon phase PBTTT with blends of different molecular weight components. We demonstrate that in blended films higher electrical conductivities (up to 4810.1 S/cm), Seebeck coefficients and thermoelectric power factors of up to 172.6 μW m-1 K-2 can be achieved than in films with single component molecular weights. We investigate the underpinning thermoelectric transport physics, including structural and spectroscopic characterization, to better understand how controlled tie chain incorporation can be used to enhance the thermoelectric performance of aligned conjugated polymers.

Keywords: organic electronics, thermoelectrics, conjugated polymers, tie chain

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Authors: Pukhtoon Yar

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Peshawar City is experiencing a rapid spatial urban growth primarily as a result of high rate of urbanization along with economic development. This paper was designed to understand the impacts of urbanization on agriculture land use change by particularly focusing on land use change trajectories from the past (1991-2014). We used Landsat imageries (30 meters) for1991along with Spot images (2.5 meters) for year 2014. . The ground truthing of the satellite data was performed by collecting information from Peshawar Development Authority, revenue department, real estate agents and interviews with the officials of city administration. The temporal satellite images were processed by applying supervised maximum likelihood classification technique in ArcGIS 9.3. The procedure resulted into five main classes of land use i.e. built-up area, farmland, barren land, cultivable-wasteland and water bodies. The analysis revealed that, in Peshawar City the built-up environment has been doubled from 8.1 percent in 1991 to over 18.2 percent in 2014 by predominantly encroaching land producing food. Furthermore, the CA-Markov Model predicted that the area under impervious surfaces would continue to flourish during the next three decades. This rapid increase in built-up area is accredited to the lack of proper land use planning and management, which has caused chaotic urban sprawl with detrimental social and environmental consequences.

Keywords: Urban Expansion, Land use, GIS, Remote Sensing, Markov Model, Peshawar City

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Authors: Ipek Kivanc, Demet Ozgur-Unluakin

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Over the past years, technological innovations and advancements have played an important role in the industrial world. Due to technological improvements, the degree of complexity of the systems has increased. Hence, all systems are getting more uncertain that emerges from increased complexity, resulting in more cost. It is challenging to cope with this situation. So, implementing efficient planning of maintenance activities in such systems are getting more essential. Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) are powerful tools for stochastic sequential decision problems under uncertainty. Although maintenance optimization in a dynamic environment can be modeled as such a sequential decision problem, POMDPs are not widely used for tackling maintenance problems. However, they can be well-suited frameworks for obtaining optimal maintenance policies. In the classical representation of the POMDP framework, the system is denoted by a single node which has multiple states. The main drawback of this classical approach is that the state space grows exponentially with the number of state variables. On the other side, factored representation of POMDPs enables to simplify the complexity of the states by taking advantage of the factored structure already available in the nature of the problem. The main idea of factored POMDPs is that they can be compactly modeled through dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs), which are graphical representations for stochastic processes, by exploiting the structure of this representation. This study aims to demonstrate how maintenance planning of dynamic systems can be modeled with factored POMDPs. An empirical maintenance planning problem of a dynamic system consisting of four partially observable components deteriorating in time is designed. To solve the empirical model, we resort to Symbolic Perseus solver which is one of the state-of-the-art factored POMDP solvers enabling approximate solutions. We generate some more predefined policies based on corrective or proactive maintenance strategies. We execute the policies on the empirical problem for many replications and compare their performances under various scenarios. The results show that the computed policies from the POMDP model are superior to the others. Acknowledgment: This work is supported by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TÜBİTAK) under grant no: 117M587.

Keywords: factored representation, maintenance, multi-component system, partially observable Markov decision processes

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Authors: Paola Leon, Hugo Garcia, Adan Leon, Samuel Munoz

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The enhanced oil recovery by steam injection was considered a process that only generated physical recovery mechanisms. However, there is evidence of the occurrence of a series of chemical reactions, which are called aquathermolysis, which generates hydrogen sulfide, carbon dioxide, methane, and lower molecular weight hydrocarbons. These reactions can be favored by the addition of a catalyst during steam injection; in this way, it is possible to generate the original oil in situ upgrading through the production increase of molecules of lower molecular weight. This additional effect could increase the oil recovery factor and reduce costs in transport and refining stages. Therefore, this research has focused on the experimental evaluation of the catalytic aquathermolysis on a Colombian heavy oil with 12,8°API. The effects of three different catalysts, reaction time, and temperature were evaluated in a batch microreactor. The changes in the Colombian heavy oil were quantified through nuclear magnetic resonance 1H-NMR. The relaxation times interpretation and the absorption intensity allowed to identify the distribution of the functional groups in the base oil and upgraded oils. Additionally, the average number of aliphatic carbons in alkyl chains, the number of substituted rings, and the aromaticity factor were established as average structural parameters in order to simplify the samples' compositional analysis. The first experimental stage proved that each catalyst develops a different reaction mechanism. The aromaticity factor has an increasing order of the salts used: Mo > Fe > Ni. However, the upgraded oil obtained with iron naphthenate tends to form a higher content of mono-aromatic and lower content of poly-aromatic compounds. On the other hand, the results obtained from the second phase of experiments suggest that the upgraded oils have a smaller difference in the length of alkyl chains in the range of 240º to 270°C. This parameter has lower values at 300°C, which indicates that the alkylation or cleavage reactions of alkyl chains govern at higher reaction temperatures. The presence of condensation reactions is supported by the behavior of the aromaticity factor and the bridge carbons production between aromatic rings (RCH₂). Finally, it is observed that there is a greater dispersion in the aliphatic hydrogens, which indicates that the alkyl chains have a greater reactivity compared to the aromatic structures.

Keywords: catalyst, upgrading, aquathermolysis, steam

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Authors: Saad M. Darwish, Magda M. Madbouly, Murad B. Khorsheed

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Sign Languages (SL) are the most accomplished forms of gestural communication. Therefore, their automatic analysis is a real challenge, which is interestingly implied to their lexical and syntactic organization levels. Hidden Markov models (HMM’s) have been used prominently and successfully in speech recognition and, more recently, in handwriting recognition. Consequently, they seem ideal for visual recognition of complex, structured hand gestures such as are found in sign language. In this paper, several results concerning static hand gesture recognition using an algorithm based on Type-2 Fuzzy HMM (T2FHMM) are presented. The features used as observables in the training as well as in the recognition phases are based on Singular Value Decomposition (SVD). SVD is an extension of Eigen decomposition to suit non-square matrices to reduce multi attribute hand gesture data to feature vectors. SVD optimally exposes the geometric structure of a matrix. In our approach, we replace the basic HMM arithmetic operators by some adequate Type-2 fuzzy operators that permits us to relax the additive constraint of probability measures. Therefore, T2FHMMs are able to handle both random and fuzzy uncertainties existing universally in the sequential data. Experimental results show that T2FHMMs can effectively handle noise and dialect uncertainties in hand signals besides a better classification performance than the classical HMMs. The recognition rate of the proposed system is 100% for uniform hand images and 86.21% for cluttered hand images.

Keywords: hand gesture recognition, hand detection, type-2 fuzzy logic, hidden Markov Model

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Authors: Georg Brunnthaller, Sandra Stein, Wilfried Sihn

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Logistics service providers are facing increasing volatility concerning future transport demand. Short-term planning horizons and planning uncertainties lead to reduced capacity utilisation and increasing empty mileage. To overcome these challenges, a model is proposed to continuously pre-plan future transport capacity in order to redesign and adjust the intermodal fleet accordingly. It is expected that the model will enable logistics service providers to organise more economically and ecologically sustainable transport chains in a more flexible way. To further describe such planning aspects, this paper gives a structured literature review on transport planning problems. The focus is on strategic and tactical planning levels, comprising relevant fleet-sizing-, network-design- and choice-of-carriers-problems. Models and their developed solution techniques are presented and the literature review is concluded with an outlook to our future research objectives

Keywords: choice of transport mode, fleet-sizing, freight transport planning, multimodal, review, service network design

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Authors: Nicodemus Tiendem, Arrey Mbayong Napoleon

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The heightening of competition and the quest for market share has left business persons and research communities re-examining and reinventing their competitive practices. A case in point is Porter’s generic strategy which has received a lot of criticism lately regarding its inability to maintain a company’s competitive power. This is because it focuses more on the organisation and ignores her external partners, who have a strong bearing on the company’s performance. This paper, therefore, sought to examine Porter’s generic strategies alongside supply chain quality management practices in terms of their effectiveness in building the competitive power of manufacturing companies in Cameroon. This was done with the use of primary data captured from a survey study across the supply chains of 20 manufacturing companies in Cameroon using a five-point Likert scale questionnaire. For each company, four 1st tier suppliers and four 1st tier distributors were carefully chosen to participate in the study alongside the companies themselves. In each case, attention was directed to persons involved in the supply chains of the companies. This gave a total of 180 entities comprising the supply chains of the 20 manufacturing companies involved in the study, making a total of 900 participants. The data was analysed using three multiple regression models to assess the effect of Porter’s generic strategy and supply chain quality management on the marketing performance of the companies. The findings proved that in such a competitive atmosphere, supply chain quality management is a better tool for marketing performance over Porter’s generic strategies and hence building the competitive power of the companies at all levels of the study. Although the study made use of convenience sampling, where sample selectivity biases the results, the findings aligned with many other recent developments in line with building the competitive power of manufacturing companies and thereby made the findings suitable for generalisation.

Keywords: supply chain quality management, Porter’s generic strategies, competitive power, marketing performance, manufacturing companies, Cameroon

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Authors: Georg Brunnthaller, Sandra Stein, Wilfried Sihn

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Transportation service providers are facing increasing volatility concerning future transport demand. Short-term planning horizons and planning uncertainties lead to reduced capacity utilization and increasing empty mileage. To overcome these challenges, a model is proposed to continuously pre-plan future transportation capacity in order to redesign and adjust the intermodal fleet accordingly. It is expected that the model will enable logistics service providers to organize more economically and ecologically sustainable transport chains in a more flexible way. To further describe these planning aspects, this paper gives an overview on transportation planning problems in a structured way. The focus is on strategic and tactical planning levels, comprising relevant fleet-sizing, service-network-design and choice-of-carriers-problems. Models and their developed solution techniques are presented, and the literature review is concluded with an outlook to our future research directions.

Keywords: freight transportation planning, multimodal, fleet-sizing, service network design, choice of transportation mode, review

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Authors: M. Ndeley

Abstract:

The performance of global manufacturing supply chains depends on the interaction of production and transport processes. Currently, the scheduling of these processes is done separately without considering mutual requirements, which leads to no optimal solutions. An integrated scheduling of both processes enables the improvement of supply chain performance. The integrated production and transport scheduling problem (PTSP) is NP-hard, so that heuristic methods are necessary to efficiently solve large problem instances as in the case of global manufacturing supply chains. This paper presents a heuristic scheduling approach which handles the integration of flexible production processes with intermodal transport, incorporating flexible land transport. The method is based on a graph that allows a reformulation of the PTSP as a shortest path problem for each job, which can be solved in polynomial time. The proposed method is applied to a supply chain scenario with a manufacturing facility in South Africa and shipments of finished product to customers within the Country. The obtained results show that the approach is suitable for the scheduling of large-scale problems and can be flexibly adapted to different scenarios.

Keywords: production and transport scheduling problem, graph based scheduling, integrated scheduling

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Authors: Tomasz Rokicki, Piotr Bórawski, Aneta Bełdycka-Bórawska, András Szeberényi

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The aim of the article was to present ways to counteract disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic occurring in the supply chain of enterprises from the automotive industry. The specific objectives are to determine changes in the automotive industry during the pandemic, to show the types of disruptions in supply chains, and how to counteract these unfavorable situations. Enterprises from the automotive industry operating in Poland were deliberately selected for research. Using the purposive sampling method, ten companies from the automotive industry were selected for qualitative research. In-depth research was carried out in selected enterprises using a personal interview. At the beginning of the pandemic, lockdowns and unpredictability were a problem. The key was to protect employees and introduce appropriate procedures. In the later stages of the pandemic, there were restrictions on the timeliness of deliveries and extension of delivery times. There were problems with the shortage of materials, and the costs of products and transport increased. In automotive companies, counteracting the effects of the pandemic consisted of ensuring the safety of employees, maintaining constant contact and communication with branches and headquarters, as well as with suppliers and contractors. Therefore, appropriate communication, cooperation, and flexibility were important.

Keywords: disruptions, automotive industry, supply chain disruption, cooperation in supply chain

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Authors: Edokpa Idemudia Waziri, Salisu S. Umar

Abstract:

The Hotellng’s T^2 is a well-known statistic for detecting a shift in the mean vector of a multivariate normal distribution. Control charts based on T have been widely used in statistical process control for monitoring a multivariate process. Although it is a powerful tool, the T statistic is deficient when the shift to be detected in the mean vector of a multivariate process is small and consistent. The Multivariate Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (MEWMA) control chart is one of the control statistics used to overcome the drawback of the Hotellng’s T statistic. In this paper, the probability distribution of the Average Run Length (ARL) of the MEWMA control chart when the quality characteristics exhibit substantial cross correlation and when the process is in-control and out-of-control was derived using the Markov Chain algorithm. The derivation of the probability functions and the moments of the run length distribution were also obtained and they were consistent with some existing results for the in-control and out-of-control situation. By simulation process, the procedure identified a class of ARL for the MEWMA control when the process is in-control and out-of-control. From our study, it was observed that the MEWMA scheme is quite adequate for detecting a small shift and a good way to improve the quality of goods and services in a multivariate situation. It was also observed that as the in-control average run length ARL0¬ or the number of variables (p) increases, the optimum value of the ARL0pt increases asymptotically and as the magnitude of the shift σ increases, the optimal ARLopt decreases. Finally, we use the example from the literature to illustrate our method and demonstrate its efficiency.

Keywords: average run length, markov chain, multivariate exponentially weighted moving average, optimal smoothing parameter

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Authors: Charles Mazhazhate

Abstract:

This study interrogates and analyses the intricate kin- and- kith network patterns of corruption and mismanagement of resources prevalent in public sector supply chains bedeviling the developing economies of Sub-Saharan Africa with particular reference to Zimbabwe. This is forcing governments to resort to harsh fiscal policies that see their citizens paying high taxes against a backdrop of incomes below the poverty datum line, and this negatively affects their quality of life. The corporate world is also affected by the various tax-regime instituted. Mismanagement of resources and corrupt practices are rampant in state-owned enterprises to the extent that institutional policies, procedures, and practices are often flouted for the benefit of a clique of individuals. This interwoven in kith and kin blood human relations in organizations where appointments to critical positions are based on ascribed status. People no longer place value in their systems to make them work thereby violating corporate governance principles. Greediness and ‘unholy friendship connections’ are instrumental in fueling the employment of people who know each other from their discrete backgrounds. Such employments or socio-metric unions are meant to protect those at the top by giving them intelligent information through spying on what other subordinates are doing inside and outside the organization. This practice has led to the underperforming of organizations as those employees with connections and their upper echelons favorites connive to abuse resources for their own benefit. Even if culprits are known, no draconian measures are employed as a deterrence measure. Public value along public sector supply chains is lost. The study used a descriptive case study research design on fifty organizations in Zimbabwe mainly state-owned enterprises. Both qualitative and quantitative instrumentations were used. Both Snowball and random sampling techniques were used. The study found out that in all the fifty SOEs, there were employees in key positions related to top management, with tentacles feeding into the law enforcement agents, judiciary, security systems, and the executive. Such employees in public seem not to know each other with but would be involved in dirty scams and then share the proceeds with top people behind the scenes. The study also established that the same employees do not have the necessary competencies, qualifications, abilities, and capabilities to be in those positions. This culture is now strong that it is difficult to bust. The study recommends recruitment of all employees through an independent employment bureau to ensure strategic fit.

Keywords: corruption, state owned enterprises, strategic fit, public sector supply chains, efficiency

Procedia PDF Downloads 163