Search results for: proportional hazards model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 16903

Search results for: proportional hazards model

16903 Frailty Models for Modeling Heterogeneity: Simulation Study and Application to Quebec Pension Plan

Authors: Souad Romdhane, Lotfi Belkacem

Abstract:

When referring to actuarial analysis of lifetime, only models accounting for observable risk factors have been developed. Within this context, Cox proportional hazards model (CPH model) is commonly used to assess the effects of observable covariates as gender, age, smoking habits, on the hazard rates. These covariates may fail to fully account for the true lifetime interval. This may be due to the existence of another random variable (frailty) that is still being ignored. The aim of this paper is to examine the shared frailty issue in the Cox proportional hazard model by including two different parametric forms of frailty into the hazard function. Four estimated methods are used to fit them. The performance of the parameter estimates is assessed and compared between the classical Cox model and these frailty models through a real-life data set from the Quebec Pension Plan and then using a more general simulation study. This performance is investigated in terms of the bias of point estimates and their empirical standard errors in both fixed and random effect parts. Both the simulation and the real dataset studies showed differences between classical Cox model and shared frailty model.

Keywords: life insurance-pension plan, survival analysis, risk factors, cox proportional hazards model, multivariate failure-time data, shared frailty, simulations study

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16902 A Study on the Waiting Time for the First Employment of Arts Graduates in Sri Lanka

Authors: Imali T. Jayamanne, K. P. Asoka Ramanayake

Abstract:

Transition from tertiary level education to employment is one of the challenges that many fresh university graduates face after graduation. The transition period or the waiting time to obtain the first employment varies with the socio-economic factors and the general characteristics of a graduate. Compared to other fields of study, Arts graduates in Sri Lanka, have to wait a long time to find their first employment. The objective of this study is to identify the determinants of the transition from higher education to employment of these graduates using survival models. The study is based on a survey that was conducted in the year 2016 on a stratified random sample of Arts graduates from Sri Lankan universities who had graduated in 2012. Among the 469 responses, 36 (8%) waiting times were interval censored and 13 (3%) were right censored. Waiting time for the first employment varied between zero to 51 months. Initially, the log-rank and the Gehan-Wilcoxon tests were performed to identify the significant factors. Gender, ethnicity, GCE Advanced level English grade, civil status, university, class received, degree type, sector of first employment, type of first employment and the educational qualifications required for the first employment were significant at 10%. The Cox proportional hazards model was fitted to model the waiting time for first employment with these significant factors. All factors, except ethnicity and type of employment were significant at 5%. However, since the proportional hazard assumption was violated, the lognormal Accelerated failure time (AFT) model was fitted to model the waiting time for the first employment. The same factors were significant in the AFT model as in Cox proportional model.

Keywords: AFT model, first employment, proportional hazard, survey design, waiting time

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16901 Efficient Estimation for the Cox Proportional Hazards Cure Model

Authors: Khandoker Akib Mohammad

Abstract:

While analyzing time-to-event data, it is possible that a certain fraction of subjects will never experience the event of interest, and they are said to be cured. When this feature of survival models is taken into account, the models are commonly referred to as cure models. In the presence of covariates, the conditional survival function of the population can be modelled by using the cure model, which depends on the probability of being uncured (incidence) and the conditional survival function of the uncured subjects (latency), and a combination of logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards (PH) regression is used to model the incidence and latency respectively. In this paper, we have shown the asymptotic normality of the profile likelihood estimator via asymptotic expansion of the profile likelihood and obtain the explicit form of the variance estimator with an implicit function in the profile likelihood. We have also shown the efficient score function based on projection theory and the profile likelihood score function are equal. Our contribution in this paper is that we have expressed the efficient information matrix as the variance of the profile likelihood score function. A simulation study suggests that the estimated standard errors from bootstrap samples (SMCURE package) and the profile likelihood score function (our approach) are providing similar and comparable results. The numerical result of our proposed method is also shown by using the melanoma data from SMCURE R-package, and we compare the results with the output obtained from the SMCURE package.

Keywords: Cox PH model, cure model, efficient score function, EM algorithm, implicit function, profile likelihood

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16900 Comparison of Two Maintenance Policies for a Two-Unit Series System Considering General Repair

Authors: Seyedvahid Najafi, Viliam Makis

Abstract:

In recent years, maintenance optimization has attracted special attention due to the growth of industrial systems complexity. Maintenance costs are high for many systems, and preventive maintenance is effective when it increases operations' reliability and safety at a reduced cost. The novelty of this research is to consider general repair in the modeling of multi-unit series systems and solve the maintenance problem for such systems using the semi-Markov decision process (SMDP) framework. We propose an opportunistic maintenance policy for a series system composed of two main units. Unit 1, which is more expensive than unit 2, is subjected to condition monitoring, and its deterioration is modeled using a gamma process. Unit 1 hazard rate is estimated by the proportional hazards model (PHM), and two hazard rate control limits are considered as the thresholds of maintenance interventions for unit 1. Maintenance is performed on unit 2, considering an age control limit. The objective is to find the optimal control limits and minimize the long-run expected average cost per unit time. The proposed algorithm is applied to a numerical example to compare the effectiveness of the proposed policy (policy Ⅰ) with policy Ⅱ, which is similar to policy Ⅰ, but instead of general repair, replacement is performed. Results show that policy Ⅰ leads to lower average cost compared with policy Ⅱ. 

Keywords: condition-based maintenance, proportional hazards model, semi-Markov decision process, two-unit series systems

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16899 A Pretest for Choosing between Stratified Logrank or Wilcoxon in the Two-Sample Problem with Covariate

Authors: Jhoanne Marsh C. Gatpatan, Joshua D. Naranjo

Abstract:

Logrank test and generalized Wilcoxon procedure are the two commonly used tests for comparing survival curves. Between the two, the logrank test is the appropriate test used when the proportional hazards (PH) assumption holds. Alternatively, the Wilcoxon method is used when the PH assumption fails. This is equally true when the data is stratified according to values of a covariate, with the stratified logrank as the first choice and stratified Wilcoxon as the alternative option when diagnostics show that the PH assumption is violated. Moreover, the choice between logrank and Wilcoxon tests also depends on whether survival curves tend to differ early or late in time. In this article, the relative performance of the stratified logrank against the stratified Wilcoxon over a range of treatment effect patterns is investigated. A method for using a Q–statistic to detect whether differences tend to occur early or late across strata are then proposed. Using Q as a pretest, the user will be able to choose the more powerful test under various patterns of deviations from the null hypothesis. Simulations show that the pretest is able to detect the more efficient procedure over varying patterns of treatment effect.

Keywords: covariates, pretest, proportional hazards, stratified logrank, stratified Wilcoxon

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16898 Health Hazards Among Health Care Workers and Associated Factors in Public Hospitals, Sana'a-Yemen

Authors: Makkia Ahmad Ali Al-Falahi, Abdullah Abdelaziz Muharram

Abstract:

Background: Healthcare workers (HCWs) in Yemen are exposed to a myriad of occupational health hazards, including biological, physical, ergonomic, chemical and psychosocial hazards. HCWs operate in an environment that is considered to be one of the most hazardous occupational settings. Objective: To assess the prevalence of occupational health hazards among healthcare workers and associated risk factors in public hospitals in Sana'a City, Yemen. Method: Descriptive cross-sectional design was utilized; out of 5443 totals of HCWs 396 were selected by multistage sampling technique was carried out in the public hospitals in Sana'a city, Yemen. Results: More the half (60.6%) of HCWs aged between 20-30 years, (50.8%) were males, (56.3%) were married, and (45.5%) had a diploma qualification, while (65.2%) of HCWs had less than 6 years of experience. The result showed that the highest prevalence of occupational hazards was (99%), (ergonomic hazards (93.4%), biological hazards (87.6%), psychosocial (86.65%), physical hazards (83.3%), and chemical hazards (73.5%). There were no statistically significant differences between demographic characteristics and the prevalence of occupational hazards (p >0.05). Conclusion and recommendations: The study showed the highest prevalence of occupational hazards; regarding the prevalence of biological hazards exposure to sharp-related injury, the most prevalent physical hazards were slip/trip/and fall. Ergonomic hazards had back or neck pain during work. Chemical hazards were allergic to medical gloves powder. On psychosocial hazards was suffered from verbal and physical harassment. The study concluded by raising awareness among HCWs by conducting training courses to prevent occupational hazards.

Keywords: health workers, occupational hazards, risk factors, the prevalence

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16897 Optimal Hedging of a Portfolio of European Options in an Extended Binomial Model under Proportional Transaction Costs

Authors: Norm Josephy, Lucy Kimball, Victoria Steblovskaya

Abstract:

Hedging of a portfolio of European options under proportional transaction costs is considered. Our discrete time financial market model extends the binomial market model with transaction costs to the case where the underlying stock price ratios are distributed over a bounded interval rather than over a two-point set. An optimal hedging strategy is chosen from a set of admissible non-self-financing hedging strategies. Our approach to optimal hedging of a portfolio of options is based on theoretical foundation that includes determination of a no-arbitrage option price interval as well as on properties of the non-self-financing strategies and their residuals. A computational algorithm for optimizing an investor relevant criterion over the set of admissible non-self-financing hedging strategies is developed. Applicability of our approach is demonstrated using both simulated data and real market data.

Keywords: extended binomial model, non-self-financing hedging, optimization, proportional transaction costs

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16896 Health Hazards of Performance Enhancing Drugs

Authors: Austin Oduor Otieno

Abstract:

There is an ingrained belief that the use of performance-enhancing drugs by athletes enable them to perform better. While this has been found to be truth, it also raises ethical and health issues. This paper analyzes the health hazards associated with performance enhancing drugs. It seeks to achieve this through the analysis of different academic journals as well as publications on the relationship between doping in sports and health. It concludes that there are inherent health hazards associated with the use of performance-enhancing drugs as they affect the physical and psychological health and wellbeing of a user (athlete).

Keywords: doping, health hazards, athletes, drugs

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16895 Modal Density Influence on Modal Complexity Quantification in Dynamic Systems

Authors: Fabrizio Iezzi, Claudio Valente

Abstract:

The viscous damping in dynamic systems can be proportional or non-proportional. In the first case, the mode shapes are real whereas in the second case they are complex. From an engineering point of view, the complexity of the mode shapes is important in order to quantify the non-proportional damping. Different indices exist to provide estimates of the modal complexity. These indices are or not zero, depending whether the mode shapes are not or are complex. The modal density problem arises in the experimental identification when the dynamic systems have close modal frequencies. Depending on the entity of this closeness, the mode shapes can hold fictitious imaginary quantities that affect the values of the modal complexity indices. The results are the failing in the identification of the real or complex mode shapes and then of the proportional or non-proportional damping. The paper aims to show the influence of the modal density on the values of these indices in case of both proportional and non-proportional damping. Theoretical and pseudo-experimental solutions are compared to analyze the problem according to an appropriate mechanical system.

Keywords: complex mode shapes, dynamic systems identification, modal density, non-proportional damping

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16894 Estimation of the Effect of Initial Damping Model and Hysteretic Model on Dynamic Characteristics of Structure

Authors: Shinji Ukita, Naohiro Nakamura, Yuji Miyazu

Abstract:

In considering the dynamic characteristics of structure, natural frequency and damping ratio are useful indicator. When performing dynamic design, it's necessary to select an appropriate initial damping model and hysteretic model. In the linear region, the setting of initial damping model influences the response, and in the nonlinear region, the combination of initial damping model and hysteretic model influences the response. However, the dynamic characteristics of structure in the nonlinear region remain unclear. In this paper, we studied the effect of setting of initial damping model and hysteretic model on the dynamic characteristics of structure. On initial damping model setting, Initial stiffness proportional, Tangent stiffness proportional, and Rayleigh-type were used. On hysteretic model setting, TAKEDA model and Normal-trilinear model were used. As a study method, dynamic analysis was performed using a lumped mass model of base-fixed. During analysis, the maximum acceleration of input earthquake motion was gradually increased from 1 to 600 gal. The dynamic characteristics were calculated using the ARX model. Then, the characteristics of 1st and 2nd natural frequency and 1st damping ratio were evaluated. Input earthquake motion was simulated wave that the Building Center of Japan has published. On the building model, an RC building with 30×30m planes on each floor was assumed. The story height was 3m and the maximum height was 18m. Unit weight for each floor was 1.0t/m2. The building natural period was set to 0.36sec, and the initial stiffness of each floor was calculated by assuming the 1st mode to be an inverted triangle. First, we investigated the difference of the dynamic characteristics depending on the difference of initial damping model setting. With the increase in the maximum acceleration of the input earthquake motions, the 1st and 2nd natural frequency decreased, and the 1st damping ratio increased. Then, in the natural frequency, the difference due to initial damping model setting was small, but in the damping ratio, a significant difference was observed (Initial stiffness proportional≒Rayleigh type>Tangent stiffness proportional). The acceleration and the displacement of the earthquake response were largest in the tangent stiffness proportional. In the range where the acceleration response increased, the damping ratio was constant. In the range where the acceleration response was constant, the damping ratio increased. Next, we investigated the difference of the dynamic characteristics depending on the difference of hysteretic model setting. With the increase in the maximum acceleration of the input earthquake motions, the natural frequency decreased in TAKEDA model, but in Normal-trilinear model, the natural frequency didn’t change. The damping ratio in TAKEDA model was higher than that in Normal-trilinear model, although, both in TAKEDA model and Normal-trilinear model, the damping ratio increased. In conclusion, in initial damping model setting, the tangent stiffness proportional was evaluated the most. In the hysteretic model setting, TAKEDA model was more appreciated than the Normal-trilinear model in the nonlinear region. Our results would provide useful indicator on dynamic design.

Keywords: initial damping model, damping ratio, dynamic analysis, hysteretic model, natural frequency

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16893 Predicting Survival in Cancer: How Cox Regression Model Compares to Artifial Neural Networks?

Authors: Dalia Rimawi, Walid Salameh, Amal Al-Omari, Hadeel AbdelKhaleq

Abstract:

Predication of Survival time of patients with cancer, is a core factor that influences oncologist decisions in different aspects; such as offered treatment plans, patients’ quality of life and medications development. For a long time proportional hazards Cox regression (ph. Cox) was and still the most well-known statistical method to predict survival outcome. But due to the revolution of data sciences; new predication models were employed and proved to be more flexible and provided higher accuracy in that type of studies. Artificial neural network is one of those models that is suitable to handle time to event predication. In this study we aim to compare ph Cox regression with artificial neural network method according to data handling and Accuracy of each model.

Keywords: Cox regression, neural networks, survival, cancer.

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16892 Modeling and Controlling the Rotational Degree of a Quadcopter Using Proportional Integral and Derivative Controller

Authors: Sanjay Kumar, Lillie Dewan

Abstract:

The study of complex dynamic systems has advanced through various scientific approaches with the help of computer modeling. The common design trends in aerospace system design can be applied to quadcopter design. A quadcopter is a nonlinear, under-actuated system with complex aerodynamics parameters and creates challenges that demand new, robust, and effective control approaches. The flight control stability can be improved by planning and tracking the trajectory and reducing the effect of sensors and the operational environment. This paper presents a modern design Simmechanics visual modeling approach for a mechanical model of a quadcopter with three degrees of freedom. The Simmechanics model, considering inertia, mass, and geometric properties of a dynamic system, produces multiple translation and rotation maneuvers. The proportional, integral, and derivative (PID) controller is integrated with the Simmechanics model to follow a predefined quadcopter rotational trajectory for a fixed time interval. The results presented are satisfying. The simulation of the quadcopter control performed operations successfully.

Keywords: nonlinear system, quadcopter model, simscape modelling, proportional-integral-derivative controller

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16891 Stress and Strain Analysis of Notched Bodies Subject to Non-Proportional Loadings

Authors: Ayhan Ince

Abstract:

In this paper, an analytical simplified method for calculating elasto-plastic stresses strains of notched bodies subject to non-proportional loading paths is discussed. The method was based on the Neuber notch correction, which relates the incremental elastic and elastic-plastic strain energy densities at the notch root and the material constitutive relationship. The validity of the method was presented by comparing computed results of the proposed model against finite element numerical data of notched shaft. The comparison showed that the model estimated notch-root elasto-plastic stresses strains with good accuracy using linear-elastic stresses. The prosed model provides more efficient and simple analysis method preferable to expensive experimental component tests and more complex and time consuming incremental non-linear FE analysis. The model is particularly suitable to perform fatigue life and fatigue damage estimates of notched components subjected to non-proportional loading paths.

Keywords: elasto-plastic, stress-strain, notch analysis, nonprortional loadings, cyclic plasticity, fatigue

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16890 Chemical Hazards Impact on Efficiency of Energy Storage Battery and its Possible Mitigation's

Authors: Abirham Simeneh Ayalew, Seada Hussen Adem, Frie Ayalew Yimam

Abstract:

Battery energy storage has a great role on storing energy harnessed from different alternative resources and greatly benefit the power sector by supply energy back to the system during outage and regular operation in power sectors. Most of the study shows that there is an exponential increase in the quantity of lithium - ion battery energy storage system due to their power density, economical aspects and its performance. But this lithium ion battery failures resulted in fire and explosion due to its having flammable electrolytes (chemicals) which can create those hazards. Hazards happen in these energy storage system lead to minimize battery life spans or efficiency. Identifying the real cause of these hazards and its mitigation techniques can be the solution to improve the efficiency of battery technologies and the electrode materials should have high electrical conductivity, large surface area, stable structure and low resistance. This paper asses the real causes of chemical hazards, its impact on efficiency, proposed solution for mitigating those hazards associated with efficiency improvement and summery of researchers new finding related to the field.

Keywords: battery energy storage, battery energy storage efficiency, chemical hazards, lithium ion battery

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16889 Investigation of the Effect of Pressure Changes on the Gas Proportional Detector

Authors: S. M. Golgoun, S. M. Taheri

Abstract:

Investigation of radioactive contamination of personnel working in radiation centers to identify radioactive materials and then measure the potential contamination and eliminate it has always been considered. For this purpose, various ways have been proposed so far and different devices have been designed and built. Gas sealed proportional counter has special working conditions. In this research, a gas sealed detector of proportional counter type was made and then its various parameters were investigated. Some parameters are influential on their working conditions and one of these most important parameters is the internal pressure of the proportional gas-filled detector. In this experimental research, we produced software for examination and altering high voltage, registering data, and calculating efficiency. By this, we investigated different gas pressure effects on detector efficiency and proposed optimizing working conditions of this detector. After reviewing the results, we suggested a range between 20-30 mbar pressure for this gas sealed detector.

Keywords: gas sealed, proportional detector, pressure, counter

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16888 Early-Onset Asthma and Early Smoking Increase Risk of Bipolar Disorder in Adolescents and Young Adults

Authors: Meng-Huan Wu, Wei-Er Wang, Tsu-Nai Wang, Wei-Jian Hsu, Vincent Chin-Hung Chen

Abstract:

Objective: Studies have reported a strong link between asthma and bipolar disorder. We conducted a 17-year community-based large cohort study to examine the relationship between asthma, early smoking initiation, and bipolar disorder during adolescence and early adulthood. Methods: A total of 162,766 participants aged 11–16 years were categorized into asthma and non-asthma groups at baseline and compared within the observation period. Covariates during late childhood or adolescence included parental education, cigarette smoking by family members of participants, and participant’s gender, age, alcohol consumption, smoking, and exercise habits. Data for urbanicity, prednisone use, allergic comorbidity, and Charlson comorbidity index were acquired from the National Health Insurance Research Database. The Cox proportional-hazards model was used to evaluate the association between asthma and bipolar disorder. Results: Our findings revealed that asthma increased the risk of bipolar disorder after adjustment for key confounders in the Cox proportional hazard regression model (adjusted HR: 1.31, 95% CI: 1.12-1.53). Hospitalizations or visits to the emergency department for asthma exhibited a dose–response effect on bipolar disorder (adjusted HR: 1.59, 95% CI: 1.22-2.06). Patients with asthma with onset before 20 years of age who smoked during late childhood or adolescence had the greatest risk for bipolar disorder (adjusted HR: 3.10, 95% CI: 1.29-7.44). Conclusions: Patients newly diagnosed with asthma had a 1.3 times higher risk of developing bipolar disorder. Smoking during late childhood or adolescence increases the risk of developing bipolar disorder in patients with asthma.

Keywords: adolescence, asthma, smoking, bipolar disorder, early adulthood

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16887 Joint Modeling of Longitudinal and Time-To-Event Data with Latent Variable

Authors: Xinyuan Y. Song, Kai Kang

Abstract:

Joint models for analyzing longitudinal and survival data are widely used to investigate the relationship between a failure time process and time-variant predictors. A common assumption in conventional joint models in the survival analysis literature is that all predictors are observable. However, this assumption may not always be supported because unobservable traits, namely, latent variables, which are indirectly observable and should be measured through multiple observed variables, are commonly encountered in the medical, behavioral, and financial research settings. In this study, a joint modeling approach to deal with this feature is proposed. The proposed model comprises three parts. The first part is a dynamic factor analysis model for characterizing latent variables through multiple observed indicators over time. The second part is a random coefficient trajectory model for describing the individual trajectories of latent variables. The third part is a proportional hazard model for examining the effects of time-invariant predictors and the longitudinal trajectories of time-variant latent risk factors on hazards of interest. A Bayesian approach coupled with a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to perform statistical inference. An application of the proposed joint model to a study on the Alzheimer's disease neuroimaging Initiative is presented.

Keywords: Bayesian analysis, joint model, longitudinal data, time-to-event data

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16886 A Mathematical Description of a Growing Cell Colony Based on the Mechanical Bidomain Model

Authors: Debabrata Auddya, Bradley J. Roth

Abstract:

The mechanical bidomain model is used to describe a colony of cells growing on a substrate. Analytical expressions are derived for the intracellular and extracellular displacements. Mechanotransduction events are driven by the difference between the displacements in the two spaces, corresponding to the force acting on integrins. The equation for the displacement consists of two terms: one proportional to the radius that is the same in the intracellular and extracellular spaces (the monodomain term) and one that is proportional to a modified Bessel function that is responsible for mechanotransduction (the bidomain term). The model predicts that mechanotransduction occurs within a few length constants of the colony’s edge, and an expression for the length constant contains the intracellular and extracellular shear moduli and the spring constant of the integrins coupling the two spaces. The model predictions are qualitatively consistent with experiments on human embryonic stem cell colonies, in which differentiation is localized near the edge.

Keywords: cell colony, integrin, mechanical bidomain model, stem cell, stress-strain, traction force

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16885 Investigation of Occupational Health and Safety of Bakeries in Izmir, Turkey

Authors: Pinar Ercan, Bulut Mert

Abstract:

The baking industry is prone to occupational health challenges like other industries. Workers in bakeries face many hazards in their work environment; hazards have the potential for causing injury, illness or work accidents. Most of these hazards are preventable and arise from the neglect of occupational safety measures. Some bakeries in Izmır Turkey was evaluated according to occupational health and safety. First of all, the production process was evaluated. The survey was administered to a total of 50 employees. The survey consisted of two sections. The first one comprised only demographic questions and items related to job characteristics. The remaining section was assessing the satisfaction and confidence about occupational health and safety in terms of employees consist of a 10-item questionnaire by using HSE (2010) survey with some modifications. Also, hazards, risks and control measures in the bakeries were determined. Risk assessment has been done by the use of '5x5 Risk Assessment Table' for this purpose.

Keywords: bakeries, occupational health and safety, hazards, risks, risk assessment

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16884 Multilevel Modeling of the Progression of HIV/AIDS Disease among Patients under HAART Treatment

Authors: Awol Seid Ebrie

Abstract:

HIV results as an incurable disease, AIDS. After a person is infected with virus, the virus gradually destroys all the infection fighting cells called CD4 cells and makes the individual susceptible to opportunistic infections which cause severe or fatal health problems. Several studies show that the CD4 cells count is the most determinant indicator of the effectiveness of the treatment or progression of the disease. The objective of this paper is to investigate the progression of the disease over time among patient under HAART treatment. Two main approaches of the generalized multilevel ordinal models; namely the proportional odds model and the nonproportional odds model have been applied to the HAART data. Also, the multilevel part of both models includes random intercepts and random coefficients. In general, four models are explored in the analysis and then the models are compared using the deviance information criteria. Of these models, the random coefficients nonproportional odds model is selected as the best model for the HAART data used as it has the smallest DIC value. The selected model shows that the progression of the disease increases as the time under the treatment increases. In addition, it reveals that gender, baseline clinical stage and functional status of the patient have a significant association with the progression of the disease.

Keywords: nonproportional odds model, proportional odds model, random coefficients model, random intercepts model

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16883 Cloudburst-Triggered Natural Hazards in Uttarakhand Himalaya: Mechanism, Prevention, and Mitigation

Authors: Vishwambhar Prasad Sati

Abstract:

This article examines cloudburst-triggered natural hazards mainly flashfloods and landslides in the Uttarakhand Himalaya. It further describes mechanism and implications of natural hazards and illustrates the preventive and mitigation measures. We conducted this study through collection of archival data, case study of cloudburst hit areas, and rapid field visit of the affected regions. In the second week of August 2017, about 50 people died and huge losses to property were noticed due to cloudburst-triggered flashfloods. Our study shows that although cloudburst triggered hazards in the Uttarakhand Himalaya are natural phenomena and unavoidable yet, disasters can be minimized if preventive measures are taken up appropriately. We suggested that construction of human settlements, institutions and infrastructural facilities along the seasonal streams and the perennial rivers should be avoided to prevent disasters. Further, large-scale tree plantation on the degraded land will reduce the magnitude of hazards.

Keywords: cloudburst, flash floods, landslides, fragile landscape

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16882 An Interlock Model of Friction and Superlubricity

Authors: Azadeh Malekan, Shahin Rouhani

Abstract:

Superlubricity is a phenomenon where two surfaces in contact show negligible friction;this may be because the asperities of the two surfaces do not interlock. Two rough surfaces, when pressed against each other, can get into a formation where the summits of asperities of one surface lock into the valleys of the other surface. The amount of interlock depends on the geometry of the two surfaces. We suggest the friction force may then be proportional to the amount of interlock; this explains Superlubricity as the situation where there is little interlock. Then the friction force will be directly proportional to the normal force as it is related to the work necessary to lift the upper surface in order to clear the interlock. To investigate this model, we simulate the contact of two surfaces. In order to validate our model, we first investigate Amontons‘ law. Assuming that asperities retain deformations in the time scale while the top asperity moves across the lattice spacing Amonton’s law is observed. Structural superlubricity is examined by the hypothesis that surfaces are very rigid and there is no deformation in asperities. This may happen at small normal forces. When two identical surfaces come into contact, rotating the top surface we observe a peak in friction force near the angle of orientation where the two surfaces can interlock.

Keywords: friction, amonton`s law, superlubricity, contact model

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16881 Identifying Model to Predict Deterioration of Water Mains Using Robust Analysis

Authors: Go Bong Choi, Shin Je Lee, Sung Jin Yoo, Gibaek Lee, Jong Min Lee

Abstract:

In South Korea, it is difficult to obtain data for statistical pipe assessment. In this paper, to address these issues, we find that various statistical model presented before is how data mixed with noise and are whether apply in South Korea. Three major type of model is studied and if data is presented in the paper, we add noise to data, which affects how model response changes. Moreover, we generate data from model in paper and analyse effect of noise. From this we can find robustness and applicability in Korea of each model.

Keywords: proportional hazard model, survival model, water main deterioration, ecological sciences

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16880 Relationship between Different Heart Rate Control Levels and Risk of Heart Failure Rehospitalization in Patients with Persistent Atrial Fibrillation: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Authors: Yongrong Liu, Xin Tang

Abstract:

Background: Persistent atrial fibrillation is a common arrhythmia closely related to heart failure. Heart rate control is an essential strategy for treating persistent atrial fibrillation. Still, the understanding of the relationship between different heart rate control levels and the risk of heart failure rehospitalization is limited. Objective: The objective of the study is to determine the relationship between different levels of heart rate control in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation and the risk of readmission for heart failure. Methods: We conducted a retrospective dual-centre cohort study, collecting data from patients with persistent atrial fibrillation who received outpatient treatment at two tertiary hospitals in central and western China from March 2019 to March 2020. The collected data included age, gender, body mass index (BMI), medical history, and hospitalization frequency due to heart failure. Patients were divided into three groups based on their heart rate control levels: Group I with a resting heart rate of less than 80 beats per minute, Group II with a resting heart rate between 80 and 100 beats per minute, and Group III with a resting heart rate greater than 100 beats per minute. The readmission rates due to heart failure within one year after discharge were statistically analyzed using propensity score matching in a 1:1 ratio. Differences in readmission rates among the different groups were compared using one-way ANOVA. The impact of varying levels of heart rate control on the risk of readmission for heart failure was assessed using the Cox proportional hazards model. Binary logistic regression analysis was employed to control for potential confounding factors. Results: We enrolled a total of 1136 patients with persistent atrial fibrillation. The results of the one-way ANOVA showed that there were differences in readmission rates among groups exposed to different levels of heart rate control. The readmission rates due to heart failure for each group were as follows: Group I (n=432): 31 (7.17%); Group II (n=387): 11.11%; Group III (n=317): 90 (28.50%) (F=54.3, P<0.001). After performing 1:1 propensity score matching for the different groups, 223 pairs were obtained. Analysis using the Cox proportional hazards model showed that compared to Group I, the risk of readmission for Group II was 1.372 (95% CI: 1.125-1.682, P<0.001), and for Group III was 2.053 (95% CI: 1.006-5.437, P<0.001). Furthermore, binary logistic regression analysis, including variables such as digoxin, hypertension, smoking, coronary heart disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease as independent variables, revealed that coronary heart disease and COPD also had a significant impact on readmission due to heart failure (p<0.001). Conclusion: The correlation between the heart rate control level of patients with persistent atrial fibrillation and the risk of heart failure rehospitalization is positive. Reasonable heart rate control may significantly reduce the risk of heart failure rehospitalization.

Keywords: heart rate control levels, heart failure rehospitalization, persistent atrial fibrillation, retrospective cohort study

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16879 Introduction to Various Innovative Techniques Suggested for Seismic Hazard Assessment

Authors: Deepshikha Shukla, C. H. Solanki, Mayank K. Desai

Abstract:

Amongst all the natural hazards, earthquakes have the potential for causing the greatest damages. Since the earthquake forces are random in nature and unpredictable, the quantification of the hazards becomes important in order to assess the hazards. The time and place of a future earthquake are both uncertain. Since earthquakes can neither be prevented nor be predicted, engineers have to design and construct in such a way, that the damage to life and property are minimized. Seismic hazard analysis plays an important role in earthquake design structures by providing a rational value of input parameter. In this paper, both mathematical, as well as computational methods adopted by researchers globally in the past five years, will be discussed. Some mathematical approaches involving the concepts of Poisson’s ratio, Convex Set Theory, Empirical Green’s Function, Bayesian probability estimation applied for seismic hazard and FOSM (first-order second-moment) algorithm methods will be discussed. Computational approaches and numerical model SSIFiBo developed in MATLAB to study dynamic soil-structure interaction problem is discussed in this paper. The GIS-based tool will also be discussed which is predominantly used in the assessment of seismic hazards.

Keywords: computational methods, MATLAB, seismic hazard, seismic measurements

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16878 Comparison of Proportional-Integral (P-I) and Integral-Propotional (I-P) Controllers for Speed Control in Vector Controlled Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor Drive

Authors: V. Srikanth, K. Balasubramanian, Rajath R. Bhat, A. S. Arjun, Nandhu Venugopal, Ananthu Unnikrishnan

Abstract:

Indirect vector control is known to produce high performance in Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor (PMSM) drives by decoupling flux and torque producing current components of stator current. The most commonly used controller or the vector control of AC motor is Proportional-Integral (P-I) controller. However, the P-I controller has some disadvantages such as high starting overshoot, sensitivity to controller gains and slower response to sudden disturbance. Therefore, the Integral-Proportional controller for PMSM drives to overcome the disadvantages of the P-I controller. Simulations results are presented and analyzed for both controllers and it is observed that Integral-Proportional (I-P) controllers give better responses than the traditional P-I controllers.

Keywords: PMSM, FOC, PI controller, IP controller

Procedia PDF Downloads 320
16877 Elastic and Plastic Collision Comparison Using Finite Element Method

Authors: Gustavo Rodrigues, Hans Weber, Larissa Driemeier

Abstract:

The prevision of post-impact conditions and the behavior of the bodies during the impact have been object of several collision models. The formulation from Hertz’s theory is generally used dated from the 19th century. These models consider the repulsive force as proportional to the deformation of the bodies under contact and may consider it proportional to the rate of deformation. The objective of the present work is to analyze the behavior of the bodies during impact using the Finite Element Method (FEM) with elastic and plastic material models. The main parameters to evaluate are, the contact force, the time of contact and the deformation of the bodies. An advantage of using the FEM approach is the possibility to apply a plastic deformation to the model according to the material definition: there will be used Johnson–Cook plasticity model whose parameters are obtained through empirical tests of real materials. This model allows analyzing the permanent deformation caused by impact, phenomenon observed in real world depending on the forces applied to the body. These results are compared between them and with the model-based Hertz theory.

Keywords: collision, impact models, finite element method, Hertz Theory

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16876 Investigating Underground Explosion-Like Sounds in Sarableh City and Its Possible Connection with Geological Hazards

Authors: Hosein Almasikia

Abstract:

Sarableh City is located in the west of Iran and in the seismic zone of Zagros. After the Azgole-Sarpol Zahab earthquake with a magnitude of 3.7 Richter on November 21, 2016, in some parts of Sarableh city, horrible sounds were heard by people. There is also a sound similar to the wear of the mill by some of the residents. Vibration studies and field investigations showed that these sounds have a geological origin and are emitted from the ground to the surface and may be related to geological hazards such as landslides, collapse of karstic zones, etc. In this study, an attempt has been made to investigate the possible relationship between these abnormal sounds and geological hazards.

Keywords: Sarable, Zagros, landslide, karstic zone

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16875 Stability Analysis of SEIR Epidemic Model with Treatment Function

Authors: Sasiporn Rattanasupha, Settapat Chinviriyasit

Abstract:

The treatment function adopts a continuous and differentiable function which can describe the effect of delayed treatment when the number of infected individuals increases and the medical condition is limited. In this paper, the SEIR epidemic model with treatment function is studied to investigate the dynamics of the model due to the effect of treatment. It is assumed that the treatment rate is proportional to the number of infective patients. The stability of the model is analyzed. The model is simulated to illustrate the analytical results and to investigate the effects of treatment on the spread of infection.

Keywords: basic reproduction number, local stability, SEIR epidemic model, treatment function

Procedia PDF Downloads 477
16874 Application Difference between Cox and Logistic Regression Models

Authors: Idrissa Kayijuka

Abstract:

The logistic regression and Cox regression models (proportional hazard model) at present are being employed in the analysis of prospective epidemiologic research looking into risk factors in their application on chronic diseases. However, a theoretical relationship between the two models has been studied. By definition, Cox regression model also called Cox proportional hazard model is a procedure that is used in modeling data regarding time leading up to an event where censored cases exist. Whereas the Logistic regression model is mostly applicable in cases where the independent variables consist of numerical as well as nominal values while the resultant variable is binary (dichotomous). Arguments and findings of many researchers focused on the overview of Cox and Logistic regression models and their different applications in different areas. In this work, the analysis is done on secondary data whose source is SPSS exercise data on BREAST CANCER with a sample size of 1121 women where the main objective is to show the application difference between Cox regression model and logistic regression model based on factors that cause women to die due to breast cancer. Thus we did some analysis manually i.e. on lymph nodes status, and SPSS software helped to analyze the mentioned data. This study found out that there is an application difference between Cox and Logistic regression models which is Cox regression model is used if one wishes to analyze data which also include the follow-up time whereas Logistic regression model analyzes data without follow-up-time. Also, they have measurements of association which is different: hazard ratio and odds ratio for Cox and logistic regression models respectively. A similarity between the two models is that they are both applicable in the prediction of the upshot of a categorical variable i.e. a variable that can accommodate only a restricted number of categories. In conclusion, Cox regression model differs from logistic regression by assessing a rate instead of proportion. The two models can be applied in many other researches since they are suitable methods for analyzing data but the more recommended is the Cox, regression model.

Keywords: logistic regression model, Cox regression model, survival analysis, hazard ratio

Procedia PDF Downloads 413