Search results for: grade uncertainty

Authors: P. R. Chauhan, S. K. Tyagi

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Adsorption refrigeration technology offers a sustainable and energy-efficient cooling alternative over traditional refrigeration technologies for meeting the fast-growing cooling demands. With its ability to utilize natural refrigerants, low-grade heat sources, and modular configurations, it has the potential to revolutionize the cooling industry. Despite these benefits, the commercial viability of this technology is hampered by several fundamental limiting constraints, including its large size, low uptake capacity, and poor performance as a result of deficient heat and mass transfer characteristics. The primary cause of adequate heat and mass transfer characteristics and magnitude of exergy loss in various real processes of adsorption cooling system can be assessed by the entropy generation rate analysis, i. e. Second law of Thermodynamics. Therefore, this article presents the second law of thermodynamic-based investigation in terms of entropy generation rate (EGR) to identify the energy losses in various processes of the HPCC-based adsorption system using MATLAB R2021b software. The adsorption technology-based cooling system consists of two beds made up of silica gel and arranged in a single stage, while the water is employed as a refrigerant, coolant, and hot fluid. The variation in process-wise EGR is examined corresponding to cycle time, and a comparative analysis is also presented. Moreover, the EGR is also evaluated in the external units, such as the heat source and heat sink unit used for regeneration and heat dump, respectively. The research findings revealed that the combination of adsorber and desorber, which operates across heat reservoirs with a higher temperature gradient, shares more than half of the total amount of EGR. Moreover, the EGR caused by the heat transfer process is determined to be the highest, followed by a heat sink, heat source, and mass transfer, respectively. in case of heat transfer process, the operation of the valve is determined to be responsible for more than half (54.9%) of the overall EGR during the heat transfer. However, the combined contribution of the external units, such as the source (18.03%) and sink (21.55%), to the total EGR, is 35.59%. The analysis and findings of the present research are expected to pinpoint the source of the energy waste in HPCC based adsorption cooling systems.

Keywords: adsorption cooling cycle, heat transfer, mass transfer, entropy generation, silica gel-water

Procedia PDF Downloads 109

Authors: Atif Alenezi

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The low global oil price poses economic challenges for Saudi Arabia, as oil revenues still make up a great percentage of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). At the end of 2014, the Consultative Assembly considered a report from the Committee on Economic Affairs and Energy which highlights that the economy had not been successfully diversified. There thus exist ample reasons for modernising the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) regime, primarily to achieve and maintain prosperity and facilitate peace in the region. Therefore, this paper aims at identifying specific problems with the existing FDI regime in Saudi Arabia and subsequently some solutions to those problems. Saudi Arabia adopted its first specific legislation in 1956, which imposed significant restrictions on foreign ownership. Since then, Saudi Arabia has modernised its FDI framework with the passing of the Foreign Capital Investment Act 1979 and the Foreign Investment Law2000 and the accompanying Executive Rules 2000 and the recently adopted Implementing Regulations 2014.Nonetheless, the legislative provisions contain various gaps and the failure to address these gaps creates risks and uncertainty for investors. For instance, the important topic of mergers and acquisitions has not been addressed in the Foreign Investment Law 2000. The circumstances in which expropriation can be considered to be in the public interest have not been defined. Moreover, Saudi Arabia has not entered into many bilateral investment treaties (BITs). This has an effect on the investment climate, as foreign investors are not afforded typical rights. An analysis of the BITs which have been entered into reveals that the national treatment standard and stabilisation, umbrella or renegotiation provisions have not been included. This is problematic since the 2000 Act does not spell out the applicable standard in accordance with which foreign investors should be treated. Moreover, the most-favoured-nation (MFN) or fair and equitable treatment (FET) standards have not been put on a statutory footing. Whilst the Arbitration Act 2012 permits that investment disputes can be internationalised, restrictions have been retained. The effectiveness of international arbitration is further undermined because Saudi Arabia does not enforce non-domestic arbitral awards which contravene public policy. Furthermore, the reservation to the Convention on the Settlement of Investment Disputes allows Saudi Arabia to exclude petroleum and sovereign disputes. Interviews with foreign investors, who operate in Saudi Arabia highlight additional issues. Saudi Arabia ought not to procrastinate far-reaching structural reforms.

Keywords: FDI, Saudi, BITs, law

Procedia PDF Downloads 410

Authors: Alan Luo, Hunter N. B. Moseley

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Many macromolecular structure entries in the Protein Data Bank (PDB) have a range of regional (localized) quality issues, be it derived from x-ray crystallography, Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) spectroscopy, or other experimental approaches. However, most PDB entries are judged by global quality metrics like R-factor, R-free, and resolution for x-ray crystallography or backbone phi-psi distribution statistics and average restraint violations for NMR. Regional quality is often ignored when PDB entries are re-used for a variety of structurally based analyses. The binding of ligands, especially ligands involved in energy metabolism, is of particular interest in many structurally focused protein studies. Using a regional quality metric that provides chemically interpretable information from electron density maps, a significant number of outliers in regional structural quality was detected across x-ray crystallographic PDB entries for proteins bound to biochemically critical ligands. In this study, a series of analyses was performed to evaluate both specific and general potential factors that could promote these outliers. In particular, these potential factors were the minimum distance to a metal ion, the minimum distance to a crystal contact, and the isotropic atomic b-factor. To evaluate these potential factors, Fisher’s exact tests were performed, using regional quality criteria of outlier (top 1%, 2.5%, 5%, or 10%) versus non-outlier compared to a potential factor metric above versus below a certain outlier cutoff. The results revealed a consistent general effect from region-specific normalized b-factors but no specific effect from metal ion contact distances and only a very weak effect from crystal contact distance as compared to the b-factor results. These findings indicate that no single specific potential factor explains a majority of the outlier ligand-bound regions, implying that human error is likely as important as these other factors. Thus, all factors, including human error, should be considered when regions of low structural quality are detected. Also, the downstream re-use of protein structures for studying ligand-bound conformations should screen the regional quality of the binding sites. Doing so prevents misinterpretation due to the presence of structural uncertainty or flaws in regions of interest.

Keywords: biomacromolecular structure, coenzyme, electron density discrepancy analysis, x-ray crystallography

Procedia PDF Downloads 131

Authors: Alisha M. Ebrahim, Bijoy K. Menon, Eddy Lang, Shelagh B. Coutts, Katie Lin

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Introduction: Frontline emergency physicians require clear and evidence-based approaches to guide neuroimaging investigations for patients presenting with suspected acute stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA). Various forms of computed tomography (CT) are currently available for initial investigation, including non-contrast CT (NCCT), CT angiography head and neck (CTA), and CT perfusion (CTP). However, there is uncertainty around optimal imaging choice for cost-effectiveness, particularly for minor or resolved neurological symptoms. In addition to the cost of CTA and CTP testing, there is also a concern for increased incidental findings, which may contribute to the burden of overdiagnosis. Methods: In this cross-sectional observational study, analysis was conducted on 586 anonymized triage and diagnostic imaging (DI) reports for neuroimaging orders completed on patients presenting to adult emergency departments (EDs) with a suspected stroke or TIA from January-December 2019. The primary outcome of interest is the diagnostic yield of NCCT+CTA compared to NCCT alone for patients presenting to urban academic EDs with Canadian Emergency Department Information System (CEDIS) complaints of “symptoms of stroke” (specifically acute stroke and TIA indications). DI reports were coded into 4 pre-specified categories (endorsed by a panel of stroke experts): no abnormalities, clinically significant findings (requiring immediate or follow-up clinical action), incidental findings (not meeting prespecified criteria for clinical significance), and both significant and incidental findings. Standard descriptive statistics were performed. A two-sided p-value <0.05 was considered significant. Results: 75% of patients received NCCT+CTA imaging, 21% received NCCT alone, and 4% received NCCT+CTA+CTP. The diagnostic yield of NCCT+CTA imaging for prespecified clinically significant findings was 24%, compared to only 9% in those who received NCCT alone. The proportion of incidental findings was 30% in the NCCT only group and 32% in the NCCT+CTA group. CTP did not significantly increase the yield of significant or incidental findings. Conclusion: In this cohort of patients presenting with suspected stroke or TIA, an NCCT+CTA neuroimaging strategy had a higher diagnostic yield for clinically significant findings than NCCT alone without significantly increasing the number of incidental findings identified.

Keywords: stroke, diagnostic yield, neuroimaging, emergency department, CT

Procedia PDF Downloads 101

Authors: Faizul Azly Abd Dzubir, Muhammad F. Othman

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Conventional structural health monitoring approach for mechanical equipment uses inspection data from Non-Destructive Testing (NDT) during plant shut down window and fitness for service evaluation to estimate the integrity of the equipment that is prone to crack damage. Yet, this forecast is fraught with uncertainty because it is often based on assumptions of future operational parameters, and the prediction is not continuous or online. Advanced Diagnostic and Prognostic Technology (ADaPT) uses Acoustic Emission (AE) technology and a stochastic prognostic model to provide real-time monitoring and prediction of mechanical defects or cracks. The forecast can help the plant authority handle their cracked equipment before it ruptures, causing an unscheduled shutdown of the facility. The ADaPT employs process historical data trending, finite element analysis, fitness for service, and probabilistic statistical analysis to develop a prediction model for crack initiation and growth due to mechanical damage. The prediction model is combined with live equipment operating data for real-time prediction of the remaining life span owing to fracture. ADaPT was devised at a hot combined feed exchanger (HCFE) that had suffered creep crack damage. The ADaPT tool predicts the initiation of a crack at the top weldment area by April 2019. During the shutdown window in April 2019, a crack was discovered and repaired. Furthermore, ADaPT successfully advised the plant owner to run at full capacity and improve output by up to 7% by April 2019. ADaPT was also used on a coke drum that had extensive fatigue cracking. The initial cracks are declared safe with ADaPT, with remaining crack lifetimes extended another five (5) months, just in time for another planned facility downtime to execute repair. The prediction model, when combined with plant information data, allows plant operators to continuously monitor crack propagation caused by mechanical damage for improved maintenance planning and to avoid costly shutdowns to repair immediately.

Keywords: mechanical damage, cracks, continuous monitoring tool, remaining life, acoustic emission, prognostic model

Procedia PDF Downloads 77

Authors: Johanna Gamboa-Kroesen

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School connectedness, or the sense of belonging at school, is a critical factor in adolescent health, academic achievement, and socioemotional well-being. In educational research, the construct of the psychological sense of school membership is often referred to as school engagement, school bonding, or school attachment. While current research recognizes school connectedness as integral to a child’s mental health and academic success, many schools have yet to develop adequate interventions to promote a child’s overall sense of belonging at school. However, prior researches in music education indicates that, among other benefits, music classrooms may provide an environment where students feel they belong. While studies indicates that music learning environments, specifically performing ensemble learning environments, instill a sense of school connectedness and, more broadly, contribute to a student’s socio-emotional development, there has been inadequate research on how the actions of music teachers contribute to this phenomenon. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between school connectedness and music learning environments with middle school music students enrolled in a school-based music ensemble. In addition, the study aimed to provide a descriptive analysis of the instructional practices that music teachers use to promote an inclusive environment in their classrooms and an overall sense of belonging in their students. Using 191 student surveys of school membership, student reflective writings, 5 teacher interviews, and 10 classroom observations, this study examined the relationship between 7th and 8th-grade student-reported levels of connectedness within their school-based music ensemble and teacher instructional practice. The study found that students reported high levels of positive school membership within their music classes. Students who participate in school-based orchestra ensembles reported a positive change in emotional state during music instruction. In addition, evidence in this study found that music teachers use instructional practices to build connectedness through de-emphasizing competition and strengthening a student’s sense of relational value within their music learning experience. The findings offer implications for future music teacher instruction to create environments of inclusion, strengthen student-teacher relationships, and promote strategies that enhance student connection to school.

Keywords: music education, belonging, instructional practice, school connectedness

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Authors: M. Ali Mandegari, S. Farzad, J. F. Görgens

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Sugar is one of the main agricultural industries in South Africa and approximately livelihoods of one million South Africans are indirectly dependent on sugar industry which is economically struggling with some problems and should re-invent in order to ensure a long-term sustainability. Second generation bio-refinery is defined as a process to use waste fibrous for the production of bio-fuel, chemicals animal food, and electricity. Bio-ethanol is by far the most widely used bio-fuel for transportation worldwide and many challenges in front of bio-ethanol production were solved. Bio-refinery annexed to the existing sugar mill for production of bio-ethanol and electricity is proposed to sugar industry and is addressed in this study. Since flow-sheet development is the key element of the bio-ethanol process, in this work, a bio-refinery (bio-ethanol and electricity production) annexed to a typical South African sugar mill considering 65ton/h dry sugarcane bagasse and tops/trash as feedstock was simulated. Aspen PlusTM V8.6 was applied as simulator and realistic simulation development approach was followed to reflect the practical behavior of the plant. Latest results of other researches considering pretreatment, hydrolysis, fermentation, enzyme production, bio-ethanol production and other supplementary units such as evaporation, water treatment, boiler, and steam/electricity generation units were adopted to establish a comprehensive bio-refinery simulation. Steam explosion with SO2 was selected for pretreatment due to minimum inhibitor production and simultaneous saccharification and fermentation (SSF) configuration was adopted for enzymatic hydrolysis and fermentation of cellulose and hydrolyze. Bio-ethanol purification was simulated by two distillation columns with side stream and fuel grade bio-ethanol (99.5%) was achieved using molecular sieve in order to minimize the capital and operating costs. Also boiler and steam/power generation were completed using industrial design data. Results indicates 256.6 kg bio ethanol per ton of feedstock and 31 MW surplus power were attained from bio-refinery while the process consumes 3.5, 3.38, and 0.164 (GJ/ton per ton of feedstock) hot utility, cold utility and electricity respectively. Developed simulation is a threshold of variety analyses and developments for further studies.

Keywords: bio-refinery, bagasse, tops, trash, bio-ethanol, electricity

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Authors: Disha Bhanot, Vinish Kathuria

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This study focusses on the issue of distress sale in horticulture sector in India, which faces unique challenges, given the perishable nature of horticulture crops, seasonal production and paucity of post-harvest produce management links. Distress sale, from a farmer’s perspective may be defined as urgent sale of normal or distressed goods, at deeply discounted prices (way below the cost of production) and it is usually characterized by unfavorable conditions for the seller (farmer). The small and marginal farmers, often involved in subsistence farming, stand to lose substantially if they receive lower prices than expected prices (typically framed in relation to cost of production). Distress sale maximizes price uncertainty of produce leading to substantial income loss; and with increase in input costs of farming, the high variability in harvest price severely affects profit margin of farmers, thereby affecting their survival. The objective of this study is to model the occurrence of distress sale by tomato cultivators in the Indian state of Maharashtra, against the background of differential access to set of factors such as - capital, irrigation facilities, warehousing, storage and processing facilities, and institutional arrangements for procurement etc. Data is being collected using primary survey of over 200 farmers in key tomato growing areas of Maharashtra, asking information on the above factors in addition to seeking information on cost of cultivation, selling price, time gap between harvesting and selling, role of middleman in selling, besides other socio-economic variables. Farmers selling their produce far below the cost of production would indicate an occurrence of distress sale. Occurrence of distress sale would then be modelled as a function of farm, household and institutional characteristics. Heckman-two-stage model would be applied to find the probability/likelihood of a famer falling into distress sale as well as to ascertain how the extent of distress sale varies in presence/absence of various factors. Findings of the study would recommend suitable interventions and promotion of strategies that would help farmers better manage price uncertainties, avoid distress sale and increase profit margins, having direct implications on poverty.

Keywords: distress sale, horticulture, income loss, India, price uncertainity

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Authors: László Schmidt

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“Post hoc ergo propter hoc” means after it, therefore because of it. In other words: If event Y followed event X, then event Y must have been caused by event X. The question of causation has long been a central theme in philosophical thought, and many different theories have been put forward. However, causality is an essentially contested concept (ECC), as it has no universally accepted definition and is used differently in everyday, scientific, and legal thinking. In the field of law, the question of causality arises mainly in the context of establishing legal liability: in criminal law and in the rules of civil law on liability for damages arising either from breach of contract or from tort. In the study some philosophical theories of causality will be presented and how these theories correlate with legal causality. It’s quite interesting when philosophical abstractions meet the pragmatic demands of jurisprudence. In Hungarian criminal judicial practice the principle of equivalence of conditions is the generally accepted and applicable standard of causation, where all necessary conditions are considered equivalent and thus a cause. The idea is that without the trigger, the subsequent outcome would not have occurred; all the conditions that led to the subsequent outcome are equivalent. In the case where the trigger that led to the result is accompanied by an additional intervening cause, including an accidental one, independent of the perpetrator, the causal link is not broken, but at most the causal link becomes looser. The importance of the intervening causes in the outcome should be given due weight in the imposition of the sentence. According to court practice if the conduct of the offender sets in motion the causal process which led to the result, it does not exclude his criminal liability and does not interrupt the causal process if other factors, such as the victim's illness, may have contributed to it. The concausa does not break the chain of causation, i.e. the existence of a causal link establish the criminal liability of the offender. Courts also adjudicates that if an act is a cause of the result if the act cannot be omitted without the result being omitted. This essentially assumes a hypothetical elimination procedure, i.e. the act must be omitted in thought and then examined to see whether the result would still occur or whether it would be omitted. On the substantive side, the essential condition for establishing the offence is that the result must be demonstrably connected with the activity committed. The provision on the assessment of the facts beyond reasonable doubt must also apply to the causal link: that is to say, the uncertainty of the causal link between the conduct and the result of the offence precludes the perpetrator from being held liable for the result. Sometimes, however, the courts do not specify in the reasons for their judgments what standard of causation they apply, i.e. on what basis they establish the existence of (legal) causation.

Keywords: causation, Hungarian criminal law, responsibility, philosophy of law

Procedia PDF Downloads 42

Authors: Ju Peng Poh, Jun Yu Charles Lee, Jonathan Chew Hoe Khoo

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The emergence of digital twin technology, a digital replica of physical world, has improved the real-time access to data from sensors about the performance of buildings. This digital transformation has opened up many opportunities to improve the management of the building by using the data collected to help monitor consumption patterns and energy leakages. One example is the integration of predictive models for anomaly detection. In this paper, we use the GAM (Generalised Additive Model) for the anomaly detection of Air Handling Units (AHU) power consumption pattern. There is ample research work on the use of GAM for the prediction of power consumption at the office building and nation-wide level. However, there is limited illustration of its anomaly detection capabilities, prescriptive analytics case study, and its integration with the latest development of digital twin technology. In this paper, we applied the general GAM modelling framework on the historical data of the AHU power consumption and cooling load of the building between Jan 2018 to Aug 2019 from an education campus in Singapore to train prediction models that, in turn, yield predicted values and ranges. The historical data are seamlessly extracted from the digital twin for modelling purposes. We enhanced the utility of the GAM model by using it to power a real-time anomaly detection system based on the forward predicted ranges. The magnitude of deviation from the upper and lower bounds of the uncertainty intervals is used to inform and identify anomalous data points, all based on historical data, without explicit intervention from domain experts. Notwithstanding, the domain expert fits in through an optional feedback loop through which iterative data cleansing is performed. After an anomalously high or low level of power consumption detected, a set of rule-based conditions are evaluated in real-time to help determine the next course of action for the facilities manager. The performance of GAM is then compared with other approaches to evaluate its effectiveness. Lastly, we discuss the successfully deployment of this approach for the detection of anomalous power consumption pattern and illustrated with real-world use cases.

Keywords: anomaly detection, digital twin, generalised additive model, GAM, power consumption, supervised learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 156

Authors: Arefeh Arabaninezhad, Ali Fakher

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Since the deterministic analysis methods fail to take system uncertainties into account, probabilistic and non-probabilistic methods are suggested. Geotechnical analyses are used to determine the stress and deformation caused by construction; accordingly, many input variables which depend on ground behavior are required for geotechnical analyses. The Random Set approach is an applicable reliability analysis method when comprehensive sources of information are not available. Using Random Set method, with relatively small number of simulations compared to fully probabilistic methods, smooth extremes on system responses are obtained. Therefore random set approach has been proposed for reliability analysis in geotechnical problems. In the present study, the application of random set method in reliability analysis of deep excavations is investigated through three deep excavation projects which were monitored during the excavating process. A finite element code is utilized for numerical modeling. Two expected ranges, from different sources of information, are established for each input variable, and a specific probability assignment is defined for each range. To determine the most influential input variables and subsequently reducing the number of required finite element calculations, sensitivity analysis is carried out. Input data for finite element model are obtained by combining the upper and lower bounds of the input variables. The relevant probability share of each finite element calculation is determined considering the probability assigned to input variables present in these combinations. Horizontal displacement of the top point of excavation is considered as the main response of the system. The result of reliability analysis for each intended deep excavation is presented by constructing the Belief and Plausibility distribution function (i.e. lower and upper bounds) of system response obtained from deterministic finite element calculations. To evaluate the quality of input variables as well as applied reliability analysis method, the range of displacements extracted from models has been compared to the in situ measurements and good agreement is observed. The comparison also showed that Random Set Finite Element Method applies to estimate the horizontal displacement of the top point of deep excavation. Finally, the probability of failure or unsatisfactory performance of the system is evaluated by comparing the threshold displacement with reliability analysis results.

Keywords: deep excavation, random set finite element method, reliability analysis, uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 268

Authors: S. A. N. Danushka, T. A. Weerasinghe

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The diverse necessities of instruction could be addressed effectively with the support of new dimensions of ICT integrated learning such as blended learning –which is a combination of face-to-face and online instruction which ensures greater flexibility in student learning and congruity of course delivery. As blended learning has been the ‘new normality' in education, many experimental and quasi-experimental research studies provide ample of evidence on its successful implementation in many fields of studies, but it is hard to justify whether blended learning could work similarly in the delivery of technology-teacher development programmes (TTDPs). The present study is bound with the particular research uncertainty, and having considered existing research approaches, the study methodology was set to decide the efficient instructional strategies for flipped classroom learning in TTDPs. In a quasi-experimental pre-test and post-test design with a mix-method research approach, the major study objective was tested with two heterogeneous samples (N=135) identified in a virtual learning environment in a Sri Lankan university. Non-randomized informal ‘before-and-after without control group’ design was employed, and two data collection methods, identical pre-test and post-test and Likert-scale questionnaires were used in the study. Selected two instructional strategies, self-directed learning (SDL) and self-regulated learning (SRL), were tested in an appropriate instructional framework with two heterogeneous samples (pre-service and in-service teachers). Data were statistically analyzed, and an efficient instructional strategy was decided via t-test, ANOVA, ANCOVA. The effectiveness of the two instructional strategy implementation models was decided via multiple linear regression analysis. ANOVA (p < 0.05) shows that age, prior-educational qualifications, gender, and work-experiences do not impact on learning achievements of the two diverse groups of learners through the instructional strategy is changed. ANCOVA (p < 0.05) analysis shows that SDL is efficient for two diverse groups of technology-teachers than SRL. Multiple linear regression (p < 0.05) analysis shows that the staged self-directed learning (SSDL) model and four-phased model of motivated self-regulated learning (COPES Model) are efficient in the delivery of course content in flipped classroom learning.

Keywords: COPES model, flipped classroom learning, self-directed learning, self-regulated learning, SSDL model

Procedia PDF Downloads 200

Authors: Ammar Y. Alqahtani

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In order to minimize the negative impact on the environment, it is essential to manage the waste that generated from the premature disposal of end-of-life (EOL) products properly. Consequently, government and international organizations introduced new policies and regulations to minimize the amount of waste being sent to landfills. Moreover, the consumers’ awareness regards environment has forced original equipment manufacturers to consider being more environmentally conscious. Therefore, manufacturers have thought of different ways to deal with waste generated from EOL products viz., remanufacturing, reusing, recycling, or disposing of EOL products. The rate of depletion of virgin natural resources and their dependency on the natural resources can be reduced by manufacturers when EOL products are treated as remanufactured, reused, or recycled, as well as this will cut on the amount of harmful waste sent to landfills. However, disposal of EOL products contributes to the problem and therefore is used as a last option. Number of EOL need to be estimated in order to fulfill the components demand. Then, disassembly process needs to be performed to extract individual components and subassemblies. Smart products, built with sensors embedded and network connectivity to enable the collection and exchange of data, utilize sensors that are implanted into products during production. These sensors are used for remanufacturers to predict an optimal warranty policy and time period that should be offered to customers who purchase remanufactured components and products. Sensor-provided data can help to evaluate the overall condition of a product, as well as the remaining lives of product components, prior to perform a disassembly process. In this paper, a multi-period disassembly-to-order (DTO) model is developed that takes into consideration the different system uncertainties. The DTO model is solved using Nonlinear Programming (NLP) in multiple periods. A DTO system is considered where a variety of EOL products are purchased for disassembly. The model’s main objective is to determine the best combination of EOL products to be purchased from every supplier in each period which maximized the total profit of the system while satisfying the demand. This paper also addressed the impact of sensor embedded products on the cost of warranties. Lastly, this paper presented and analyzed a case study involving various simulation conditions to illustrate the applicability of the model.

Keywords: closed-loop supply chains, environmentally conscious manufacturing, product recovery, reverse logistics

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Authors: Guenther Schuh, Michael Riesener, Frederic Diels

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Nowadays, manufacturing companies are faced with the challenge of meeting heterogeneous customer requirements in short product life cycles with a variety of product functions. So far, some of the functional requirements remain unknown until late stages of the product development. A way to handle these uncertainties is the highly iterative product development (HIP) approach. By structuring the development project as a highly iterative process, this method provides customer oriented and marketable products. There are first approaches for combined, hybrid models comprising deterministic-normative methods like the Stage-Gate process and empirical-adaptive development methods like SCRUM on a project management level. However, almost unconsidered is the question, which development scopes can preferably be realized with either empirical-adaptive or deterministic-normative approaches. In this context, a development scope constitutes a self-contained section of the overall development objective. Therefore, this paper focuses on a methodology that deals with the uncertainty of requirements within the early development stages and the corresponding selection of the most appropriate development approach. For this purpose, internal influencing factors like a company’s technology ability, the prototype manufacturability and the potential solution space as well as external factors like the market accuracy, relevance and volatility will be analyzed and combined into an Agile-Indicator. The Agile-Indicator is derived in three steps. First of all, it is necessary to rate each internal and external factor in terms of the importance for the overall development task. Secondly, each requirement has to be evaluated for every single internal and external factor appropriate to their suitability for empirical-adaptive development. Finally, the total sums of internal and external side are composed in the Agile-Indicator. Thus, the Agile-Indicator constitutes a company-specific and application-related criterion, on which the allocation of empirical-adaptive and deterministic-normative development scopes can be made. In a last step, this indicator will be used for a specific clustering of development scopes by application of the fuzzy c-means (FCM) clustering algorithm. The FCM-method determines sub-clusters within functional clusters based on the empirical-adaptive environmental impact of the Agile-Indicator. By means of the methodology presented in this paper, it is possible to classify requirements, which are uncertainly carried out by the market, into empirical-adaptive or deterministic-normative development scopes.

Keywords: agile, highly iterative development, agile-indicator, product development

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Authors: Qian Wang, Haibo Gu

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To drive practical interpretations and applications of various policies in building the transnational education joint-ventures, middle managers learn to navigate through uncertainties and ambiguities. However, the current literature views very little about those middle managers’ experiences, perceptions, and practices. This paper takes the empirical approach and aims to uncover the middle managers’ experiences by conducting interviews, campus visits, and document analysis. Following the qualitative research method approach, the researchers gathered information from a mixture of fourteen foreign and Chinese managers. Their perceptions of the China-foreign cooperation in higher education and their perceived roles have offered important, valuable insights to this group of people’s attitudes and management performances. The diverse cultural and demographic backgrounds contributed to the significance of the study. There are four key findings. One, middle managers’ immediate micro-contexts and individual attitudes are the top two influential factors in managers’ performances. Two, the foreign middle managers showed a stronger sense of self-identity in risk-taking. Three, the Chinese middle managers preferred to see difficulties as part of their assigned responsibilities. Four, middle managers in independent universities demonstrated a stronger sense of belonging and fewer frustrations than middle managers in secondary institutes. The researchers propose that training for managers in a transnational educational setting should consider these discoveries when select fitting topics and content. In particular, middle managers should be better prepared to anticipate their everyday jobs in the micro-environment; hence, information concerning sponsor organizations’ working culture is as essential as knowing the national and local regulations, and socio-culture. Different case studies can help the managers to recognize and celebrate the diversity in transnational education. Situational stories can help them to become aware of the diverse and wide range of work contexts so that they will not feel to be left alone when facing challenges without relevant previous experience or training. Though this research is a case study based in the Chinese transnational higher education setting, the implications could be relevant and comparable to other transnational higher education situations and help to continue expanding the potential applications in this field.

Keywords: educational management, middle manager performance, transnational higher education

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Authors: Areej Isam Barham

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The implementation of Japanese lesson study approach in the mathematics classroom has been grown worldwide as a model of professional development for teachers. In Qatar, the implementation of IMPULS-QU lesson study program aimed to establish a robust organizational improvement model of professional development for mathematics teachers in Qatar schools. This study describes the implementation of a lesson study model at Al-Markhyia Independent Primary School through different stages; and discusses how the planning process, the research lesson, and the post discussion participates in providing teachers and researchers with a successful research lesson for teacher professional development. The research followed a case study approach in one mathematics classroom. Two teachers and one professional development specialist participated the planning process. One teacher conducted the research lesson study by introducing a problem solving related to the concept of the ‘Mean’ in a mathematics class, 21 students in grade 6 participated in solving the mathematic problem, 11 teachers, 4 professional development specialists, and 4 mathematics professors observed the research lesson. All previous participants except the students participated in a pre and post-lesson discussion within this research. This study followed a qualitative research approach by analyzing the collected data through different stages in the research lesson study. Observation, field notes, and semi-structured interviews conducted to collect data to achieve the research aims. One feature of this lesson study research is that this research describes the implementation for a lesson study as a new experience for one mathematics teacher and 21 students after 3 years of conducting IMPULS-QU project in Al-Markhyia school. The research describes various stages through the implementation of this lesson study model starting from the planning process and ending by the post discussion process. Findings of the study also address the impact of lesson study approach in teaching mathematics for the development of teachers from their point views. Results of the study show the benefits of using lesson study from the point views of participated teachers, theory perceptions about the essential features of lesson study, and their needs for future development. The discussion of the study addresses different features and issues related to the implementation of IMPULS-QU lesson study model in the mathematics classroom. In the light of the study, the research presents recommendations and suggestions for future professional development.

Keywords: lesson study, mathematics education, mathematics teaching experience, teacher professional development

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Authors: Adriana Diaz Triana, Wolfgang Wimmer, Sebastian Glaser, Rainer Pamminger

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SUSTAINEXT is a pioneer initiative in Extremadura, Spain under the EU Biobased industries. SUSTANEXT will scale-up and validate an industrial facility to produce botanical extracts, based on three key pillars. First, the whole valorization of bio-based feedstocks with a zero-waste and zero-emissions ambition. SUSTAINEXT will be deployed with six feedstocks. Three medicinal and aromatic plants (Rosemary, Chamomile, and Lemon verbena) will be locally sourced from disused tobacco fields with installed agri-voltaics; and three underexploited agro-industrial side streams will be further valorized (Olive, artichoke-cardoon, and pomegranate). Second, a dynamic, analytical biorefinery (DYANA) will isolate polyphenol and tri-terpenes from feedstocks in a disruptive and circular way. SUSTAINEXT explores 12 valorization routes (VRs) to extract and purify 46 functional ingredients, of which 13 are new in the market and 12 are newly produced in Europe. Third, the integrated and versatile value chain engages all actors, from feedstocks suppliers to extract users in the industries of food, animal feed, nutraceuticals, cosmetics, chemical performance, soil enhancers and fertilizers. This paper addresses SUTAINEXT activities towards zero impacts and full regulatory compliance. A comprehensive Life Cycle Thinking approach is proposed, with four complementary assessments running iteratively along the project duration (4,5 years). These are the Life Cycle Cost (LCCA), Life Cycle (LCA), Social Life Cycle (S-LCA) and Circularity (CA) assessments. The LCA will help evaluate the feedstock suitability parameters and intrinsic characteristics that quantify the feedstock´s grade for a determined use, and the feedstock´s suitability index for a specific VR. The LCA will also study the emissions, land use change, energy generation and consumption, and other environmental aspects and impacts of the VRs, to identify the most resource efficient and less impactful distribution of products from the circular biorefinery model used in SUSTAINEXT. Challenges to complete the LCA include the definition of the system boundaries, carrying out a robust inventory, and the proper allocation of impacts to the different VRs.

Keywords: biorefinery, botanical extracts, life cycle assessment, valorization routes.

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Authors: Ahmeda Ali, Mary Codd, Susan Brundage

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Importance: This research focuses on devising and improving Health Service Executive (HSE) policy and legislation and therefore improving patient trauma care and outcomes in Ireland. Objectives: The study measures components of the Trauma System in the district hospital setting of the Cavan/Monaghan Hospital Group (CMHG), HSE, Ireland, and uses the collected data to identify the strengths and weaknesses of the CMHG Trauma System organisation, to include governance, injury data, prevention and quality improvement, scene care and facility-based care, and rehabilitation. The information will be made available to local policy makers to provide objective situational analysis to assist in future trauma service planning and service provision. Design, setting and participants: From 28 April to May 28, 2016 a cross-sectional survey using World Health Organisation (WHO) Trauma System Assessment Tool (TSAT) was conducted among healthcare professionals directly involved in the level III trauma system of CMHG. Main outcomes: Identification of the strengths and weaknesses of the Trauma System of CMHG. Results: The participants who reported inadequate funding for pre hospital (62.3%) and facility based trauma care at CMHG (52.5%) were high. Thirty four (55.7%) respondents reported that a national trauma registry (TARN) exists but electronic health records are still not used in trauma care. Twenty one respondents (34.4%) reported that there are system wide protocols for determining patient destination and adequate, comprehensive legislation governing the use of ambulances was enforced, however, there is a lack of a reliable advisory service. Over 40% of the respondents reported uncertainty of the injury prevention programmes available in Ireland; as well as the allocated government funding for injury and violence prevention. Conclusions: The results of this study contributed to a comprehensive assessment of the trauma system organisation. The major findings of the study identified three fundamental areas: the inadequate funding at CMHG, the QI techniques and corrective strategies used, and the unfamiliarity of existing prevention strategies. The findings direct the need for further research to guide future development of the trauma system at CMHG (and in Ireland as a whole) in order to maximise best practice and to improve functional and life outcomes.

Keywords: trauma, education, management, system

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Authors: Hayder H. Kareem, Shunqi Pan

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The geological environment where the groundwater is collected represents the most important element that affects the behaviour of groundwater aquifer. As groundwater is a worldwide vital resource, it requires knowing the parameters that affect this source accurately so that the conceptualized mathematical models would be acceptable to the broadest ranges. Therefore, groundwater models have recently become an effective and efficient tool to investigate groundwater aquifer behaviours. Groundwater aquifer may contain aquitards, aquicludes, or interfaces within its geological formations. Aquitards and aquicludes have geological formations that forced the modellers to include those formations within the conceptualized groundwater models, while interfaces are commonly neglected from the conceptualization process because the modellers believe that the interface has no effect on aquifer behaviour. The current research highlights the impact of an interface existing in a real unconfined groundwater aquifer called Dibdibba, located in Al-Najaf City, Iraq where it has a river called the Euphrates River that passes through the eastern part of this city. Dibdibba groundwater aquifer consists of two types of soil layers separated by an interface soil layer. A groundwater model is built for Al-Najaf City to explore the impact of this interface. Calibration process is done using PEST 'Parameter ESTimation' approach and the best Dibdibba groundwater model is obtained. When the soil interface is conceptualized, results show that the groundwater tables are significantly affected by that interface through appearing dry areas of 56.24 km² and 6.16 km² in the upper and lower layers of the aquifer, respectively. The Euphrates River will also leak water into the groundwater aquifer of 7359 m³/day. While these results are changed when the soil interface is neglected where the dry area became 0.16 km², the Euphrates River leakage became 6334 m³/day. In addition, the conceptualized models (with and without interface) reveal different responses for the change in the recharge rates applied on the aquifer through the uncertainty analysis test. The aquifer of Dibdibba in Al-Najaf City shows a slight deficit in the amount of water supplied by the current pumping scheme and also notices that the Euphrates River suffers from stresses applied to the aquifer. Ultimately, this study shows a crucial need to represent the interface soil layer in model conceptualization to be the intended and future predicted behaviours more reliable for consideration purposes.

Keywords: Al-Najaf City, groundwater aquifer behaviour, groundwater modelling, interface soil layer, Visual MODFLOW

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Authors: Felipe Riveros, Ricardo Alvarez, Claudia Rahmann, Rodrigo Moreno

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Around the world, many countries have committed to a decarbonization of their electricity system. Under this global drive, converter-interfaced generators (CIG) such as wind and photovoltaic generation appear as cornerstones to achieve these energy targets. Despite its benefits, an increasing use of CIG brings several technical challenges in power systems, especially from a stability viewpoint. Among the key differences are limited short circuit current capacity, inertia-less characteristic of CIG, and response times within the electromagnetic timescale. Along with the integration of CIG into the power system, one enabling technology for the energy transition towards low-carbon power systems is battery energy storage systems (BESS). Because of the flexibility that BESS provides in power system operation, its integration allows for mitigating the variability and uncertainty of renewable energies, thus optimizing the use of existing assets and reducing operational costs. Another characteristic of BESS is that they can also support power system stability by injecting reactive power during the fault, providing short circuit currents, and delivering fast frequency response. However, most methodologies for sizing and allocating BESS in power systems are based on economic aspects and do not exploit the benefits that BESSs can offer to system stability. In this context, this paper presents a methodology for determining the optimal allocation of battery energy storage systems (BESS) in weak power systems with high levels of CIG. Unlike traditional economic approaches, this methodology incorporates stability constraints to allocate BESS, aiming to mitigate instability issues arising from weak grid conditions with low short-circuit levels. The proposed methodology offers valuable insights for power system engineers and planners seeking to maintain grid stability while harnessing the benefits of renewable energy integration. The methodology is validated in the reduced Chilean electrical system. The results show that integrating BESS into a power system with high levels of CIG with stability criteria contributes to decarbonizing and strengthening the network in a cost-effective way while sustaining system stability. This paper potentially lays the foundation for understanding the benefits of integrating BESS in electrical power systems and coordinating their placements in future converter-dominated power systems.

Keywords: battery energy storage, power system stability, system strength, weak power system

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Authors: Nyashadzashe Chiraga, Anthony Walker, Glen Bright

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The manufacturing industry is currently experiencing a paradigm shift into the Fourth Industrial Revolution in which customers are increasingly at the epicentre of production. The high degree of production customization and personalization requires a flexible manufacturing system that will rapidly respond to the dynamic and volatile changes driven by the market. They are a gap in technology that allows for the optimal flow of information and optimal manufacturing operations on the shop floor regardless of the rapid changes in the fixture and part demands. Information is the reduction of uncertainty; it gives meaning and context on the state of each cell. The amount of information needed to describe cellular manufacturing systems is investigated by two measures: the structural entropy and the operational entropy. Structural entropy is the expected amount of information needed to describe scheduled states of a manufacturing system. While operational entropy is the amount of information that describes the scheduled states of a manufacturing system, which occur during the actual manufacturing operation. Using Anylogic simulator a typical manufacturing job shop was set-up with a cellular manufacturing configuration. The cellular make-up of the configuration included; a Material handling cell, 3D Printer cell, Assembly cell, manufacturing cell and Quality control cell. The factory shop provides manufactured parts to a number of clients, and there are substantial variations in the part configurations, new part designs are continually being introduced to the system. Based on the normal expected production schedule, the schedule adherence was calculated from the structural entropy and operation entropy of varying the amounts of information communicated in simulated runs. The structural entropy denotes a system that is in control; the necessary real-time information is readily available to the decision maker at any point in time. For contractive analysis, different out of control scenarios were run, in which changes in the manufacturing environment were not effectively communicated resulting in deviations in the original predetermined schedule. The operational entropy was calculated from the actual operations. From the results obtained in the empirical study, it was seen that increasing, the efficiency of a factory communication system increases the degree of adherence of a job to the expected schedule. The performance of downstream production flow fed from the parallel upstream flow of information on the factory state was increased.

Keywords: information entropy, communication in manufacturing, mass customisation, scheduling

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Authors: Georgios A. Fragkiadakis, Antonia Psaroudaki, Theodora Mouratidou, Eirini Sfakianaki

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Research: The nutritional benefits of eating carob are many and important for the human organism, as it is a food rich in carbohydrates and low in fat and contains multiple nutrients, making it a "superfood". Within the framework of the project "Actions for the optimal utilization of the potential of carob in the Region of Crete" which is financed-supervised by the Region of Crete, a second-grade local self-government authority, with the collaboration of the University of Crete and of the Hellenic Mediterranean University, an online survey was carried out with the aim of evaluating dietary habits and views related to the consumption of carob and its products in a sample of local residents. Results and Conclusions: Of the 351 participants, 259 (73.8%) stated that they consume carob products, and 26.2% stated that they do not. Difficult access and limited availability of carob-food products (33.7%), high price (20.7%), and difficulties of use and preparation (15.2%) were cited as the main reasons for non-consumption. Other reasons, to a lesser extent, concern the taste, especially the sweet aftertaste of some products. Concerning the behavior and eating habits related to the consumption of carob products (n=259), 57.9% of the sample report that they buy carob products "sometimes"; 21.2% report "often"; 19.7% report "rarely", and a very small percentage of 1.2% report "constantly". With reference to the reasons for choosing carob products, the participants mention the main reason for their high nutritional value (51.7%), followed by 32.4% of nutritional claims and health claims, and the organoleptic characteristics (10.8%). Other positive factors are the final price of the product, the ease of use, and the respect for the local environment and producers. Some bakery products show the highest percentage of consumption among carob-food consumers, mainly in the form of rusks (86.1%) and breadsticks (70.3%). They are followed, in descending order, by bread (63.3%), toast (52.1%), and flour (50.6%). More specifically: 40.5% consume carob rusks less than once a month; 22% consume less than once a week; up to twice a week 12.4%; 6.6%, consume rusks 3 to 4 times a week, and daily 3.9%. It is worth mentioning that a high percentage of consumers of carob products recommend the consumption to their family and friends. Only a small percentage, in the range of 5%, does not recommend the consumption of carob products in their close family/social circle. The main motivating factors for the consumption of carob products are the expected effects they may have on health (74.1%) and the organoleptic characteristics with a percentage of 21.6%.

Keywords: food, consumer, preferences, carob, Crete, Greece

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Authors: Gurjeet Khurana, Surender Singh, Poonam Arora, Praveendra K. Sachan

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Introduction: Post-operative quality of recovery is the key outcome in the perspective of anesthesiologist. It is directly related to patient satisfaction. This is unsurprising, considering most aspects of a poor quality recovery after surgery will impair satisfaction with care. This study was thus undertaken to evaluate effects of Dexamethasone and Lignocaine on Quality of Recovery using QoR- 40 questionnaire and compare their effects. Material and methods: After obtaining the ethical committee approval and written informed consent, 67 patients of 18-60 years, ASA grade I and II scheduled for elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy were randomly allocated into two groups. Group I of 34 patients received 2mg/kg lignocaine diluted to 10ml with normal saline. Group 2 of 33 patients received 0.1 mg/kg I/V Dexamethasone diluted to 10ml with normal saline. QoR-40 was assessed on pre-operative day, and again QoR-40 was assessed at 24 hr post-operative day-1. Postoperative pain scores, nausea and vomiting and shoulder pain were secondary outcomes. Results: The Global QoR-40 was more than 180 at 24 hr in both the groups. The Dexamethasone group had higher Global QoR-40 than lignocaine group 187.94 v/s 182.85. Amongst dimensions of QoR-40 Dexamethasone had statistically better physical comfort, physical independence, and pain relief as compared to Lignocaine. Positive items had excellent responses in Dexamethasone group. Headache, backache and sore throat were also less severe in Dexamethasone group as compared to Lignocaine group. Dexamethasone group had lower VAS compared to lignocaine group. Similarly, there was less fentanyl consumption in dexamethasone group (364.08 ± 127.31) in postoperative period when compared to the lignocaine group (412.31 ± 147.8). Group receiving dexamethasone had 36% increase in appetite compared to lignocaine group (17.6%), which facilitated early oral feeding. Frequency of PONV was less in group-2 at different time interval as compared to group 1. Total episode of PONV were 18 in group 1 and 7 in group 2. Statistically significant difference was seen among two groups (p value= 0.007). Use of antiemetic was more in group 1 as compared to group 2 at all the times, though it was not statistically significant at different time intervals. Antiemetics were administered to 18 patients in group 1 as compared to 5 patients in group 2 postoperatively. Statistically significant difference (p value= 0.011) was seen in total antiemetic consumption. Conclusion: Our study demonstrated that pre-operative administration of a single dose of dexamethasone enhanced the quality of recovery after laparoscopic cholecystectomy as compared to Lignocaine bolus dose.

Keywords: dexamethasone, lignocaine, QoR-40 questionnaire, quality of recovery

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Authors: Mubarack Ahmed, Gabriele Gradoni, Stephen C. Creagh, Gregor Tanner

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High-frequency cables commonly connect modern devices and sensors. Interestingly, the proportion of electric components is rising fast in an attempt to achieve lighter and greener devices. Modelling the propagation of signals through these cable networks in the presence of parameter uncertainty is a daunting task. In this work, we study the response of high-frequency cable networks using both Transmission Line and Quantum Graph (QG) theories. We have successfully compared the two theories in terms of reflection spectra using measurements on real, lossy cables. We have derived a generalisation of the vertex scattering matrix to include non-uniform networks – networks of cables with different characteristic impedances and propagation constants. The QG model implicitly takes into account the pseudo-chaotic behavior, at the vertices, of the propagating electric signal. We have successfully compared the asymptotic growth of eigenvalues of the Laplacian with the predictions of Weyl law. We investigate the nearest-neighbour level-spacing distribution of the resonances and compare our results with the predictions of Random Matrix Theory (RMT). To achieve this, we will compare our graphs with the generalisation of Wigner distribution for open systems. The problem of scattering from networks of cables can also provide an analogue model for wireless communication in highly reverberant environments. In this context, we provide a preliminary analysis of the statistics of communication capacity for communication across cable networks, whose eventual aim is to enable detailed laboratory testing of information transfer rates using software defined radio. We specialise this analysis in particular for the case of MIMO (Multiple-Input Multiple-Output) protocols. We have successfully validated our QG model with both TL model and laboratory measurements. The growth of Eigenvalues compares well with Weyl’s law and the level-spacing distribution agrees so well RMT predictions. The results we achieved in the MIMO application compares favourably with the prediction of a parallel on-going research (sponsored by NEMF21.)

Keywords: eigenvalues, multiple-input multiple-output, quantum graph, random matrix theory, transmission line

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Authors: Omer Burak Iskender, Keck Voon Ling, Vincent Dubanchet, Luca Simonini

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This paper presents Guidance and Control (G&C) strategy to approach and synchronize with potentially rotating targets. The proposed strategy generates and tracks a safe trajectory for space servicing missions, including tasks like approaching, inspecting, and capturing. The main objective of this paper is to validate the G&C laws using a Hardware-In-the-Loop (HIL) setup with realistic rendezvous and docking equipment. Throughout this work, the assumption of full relative state feedback is relaxed by onboard sensors that bring realistic errors and delays and, while the proposed closed loop approach demonstrates the robustness to the above mentioned challenge. Moreover, G&C blocks are unified via the Model Predictive Control (MPC) paradigm, and the coupling between translational motion and rotational motion is addressed via dual quaternion based kinematic description. In this work, G&C is formulated as a convex optimization problem where constraints such as thruster limits and the output constraints are explicitly handled. Furthermore, the Monte-Carlo method is used to evaluate the robustness of the proposed method to the initial condition errors, the uncertainty of the target's motion and attitude, and actuator errors. A capture scenario is tested with the robotic test bench that has onboard sensors which estimate the position and orientation of a drifting satellite through camera imagery. Finally, the approach is compared with currently used robust H-infinity controllers and guidance profile provided by the industrial partner. The HIL experiments demonstrate that the proposed strategy is a potential candidate for future space servicing missions because 1) the algorithm is real-time implementable as convex programming offers deterministic convergence properties and guarantee finite time solution, 2) critical physical and output constraints are respected, 3) robustness to sensor errors and uncertainties in the system is proven, 4) couples translational motion with rotational motion.

Keywords: dual quaternion, model predictive control, real-time experimental test, rendezvous and docking, spacecraft autonomy, space servicing

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Authors: Lucksini Raveendran

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Introduction: This mixed-methods study focuses on the experiences of ethnocultural youth and families in Canada, identifying key barriers and opportunities to inform service programming and policies that can better meet their mental health needs during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond. Methods: Mental Health Commission of Canada's Headstrong initiative administered the youth survey (April – June 2020) and family survey (June – August 2020) with a total sample size of 137 and 481 respondents, respectively. Thematic analysis was conducted to identify key challenges faced, coping strategies used, and help-seeking behaviours. A similar approach was also applied to the family survey data, but instead, a representative sample was collated to analyze geographically variable and ethnically diverse subgroups. Results and analysis: Multiple challenges have impacted families, including increased feelings of loneliness and distress from border travel restrictions, especially among those navigating pregnancy alone or managing children with developmental needs, which is often understudied. Also, marginalized groups were disproportionately affected by inequitable access to communication technologies, further deepening the digital divide. Some reported living in congregated homes with regular conflicts, thus leading to increased anxiety and exposure to violence. For many families, urbanicity and ethnicity played a key role in how families reported coping with feelings of uncertainty while managing work commitments, navigating community resources, fulfilling care responsibilities, and homeschooling children of all ages. Despite these challenges, there was evidence of post-traumatic growth and building community resiliency. Conclusions and implications for policy, practice, or additional research: There is a need to foster opportunities to promote and sustain mental health, wellness, and resilience for families through social connections. Also, intersectionality must be embedded in the collection, analysis, and application of data to improve equitable access to evidence-based and recovery-oriented mental health supports among diverse families in Canada. Lastly, address future research on the long-term COVID-19 impacts of travel border restrictions on family wellness.

Keywords: mental health, youth mental health, family wellness, health equity

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Authors: Getalem E. Haylia

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The Ribb dam is one of the irrigation projects in the Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia, to irrigate the Fogera plain. Reservoir sedimentation is a major problem because it reduces the useful reservoir capacity by the accumulation of sediments coming from the watersheds. Estimates of sediment yield are needed for studies of reservoir sedimentation and planning of soil and water conservation measures. The objective of this study was to simulate the Ribb dam catchment sediment yield using SWAT model and to estimate Ribb reservoir effective life according to trap efficiency methods. The Ribb dam catchment is found in North Western part of Ethiopia highlands, and it belongs to the upper Blue Nile and Lake Tana basins. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was selected to simulate flow and sediment yield in the Ribb dam catchment. The model sensitivity, calibration, and validation analysis at Ambo Bahir site were performed with Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2). The flow data at this site was obtained by transforming the Lower Ribb gauge station (2002-2013) flow data using Area Ratio Method. The sediment load was derived based on the sediment concentration yield curve of Ambo site. Stream flow results showed that the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) was 0.81 and the coefficient of determination (R²) was 0.86 in calibration period (2004-2010) and, 0.74 and 0.77 in validation period (2011-2013), respectively. Using the same periods, the NS and R² for the sediment load calibration were 0.85 and 0.79 and, for the validation, it became 0.83 and 0.78, respectively. The simulated average daily flow rate and sediment yield generated from Ribb dam watershed were 3.38 m³/s and 1772.96 tons/km²/yr, respectively. The effective life of Ribb reservoir was estimated using the developed empirical methods of the Brune (1953), Churchill (1948) and Brown (1958) methods and found to be 30, 38 and 29 years respectively. To conclude, massive sediment comes from the steep slope agricultural areas, and approximately 98-100% of this incoming annual sediment loads have been trapped by the Ribb reservoir. In Ribb catchment, as well as reservoir systematic and thorough consideration of technical, social, environmental, and catchment managements and practices should be made to lengthen the useful life of Ribb reservoir.

Keywords: catchment, reservoir effective life, reservoir sedimentation, Ribb, sediment yield, SWAT model

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Authors: Saima Ali, Liaqat Ali, Nasir Orakzai

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Background: Hydronephrosis is the most common abnormal finding in the urinary tract on prenatal screening with Ultrasonography. The prenatal hydronephrosis is a diagnostic dilemma in differentiating between obstructive variant versus physiologic hydronephrosis. The assessment and prompt diagnosis of prenatal hydronephrosis is important because of the fact that untreated obstructive hydronephrosis usually leads to recurrent UTI, Urosepsis, deterioration of renal functions, non-functioning kidneys, and even end-stage renal disease. Objectives: To determine the etiology and outcome of postnatal treatment of children with prenatal hydronephrosis in two teaching hospitals of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) Methods: It is a multicentric descriptive study that was conducted in department of Paediatrics in Kuwait teaching hospital Peshawar and Department of Urology in Institute of Kidney Diseases Hayatabad Medical Complex Peshawar from January 2008 till December 2010. Total numbers of 64 neonates were included in the study with the mean follow-up of 14.5 months. All the diagnostic data in prenatal, postnatal data, and operative and non-operative data were collected on structured Proforma and was analyzed on SPSS version 17. Results: Out of 64 patients, 39 (60.9 %) were male while 25 were female. 52 patients had unilateral while 12 patients had bilateral hydronephrosis. Based upon prenatal USG in term of AP diameter, 37 (57 %) patients had mild hydronephrosis (5-10 mm AP diameter), 14 patients had moderate hydronephrosis (10-15 mm AP diameter) while 13 patients had gross hydronephrosis (More than 15mm). Regarding etiology, 44(76 %) patients were labeled as physiologic hydronephrosis, 11 patients (9.3%) with PUJ obstruction, 5 patients with Vesicoureteric reflux (VUR) and 4 patients with posterior urethral valves. Surgery was performed in total of 15 (23.4%) patients that included open Pyeloplasty in 11 patients, Vesicostomy followed by posterior valve fulguration in 4 patients. All the patients of VUR treated medically. The severity in the grade of prenatal hydronephrosis is significantly associated with the need for definitive urological surgery p < 0.005. Ancillary procedures like percutaneous nephrostomy (PCN) were inserted 7 patients. Conclusions: Prenatal hydronephrosis is a common ailment associated with significant morbidity. Physiological Hydronephrosis and VUR can be successfully treated with medical treatment. However obstructive PUJ obstructions and posterior urethral valves require surgical correction with a good success rate.

Keywords: prenatal hydronephrosis, Pelviureteric Junction (PUJ) Obstruction, vesicoureteric reflux, posterior urethral valve, renography

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Authors: Ipek Kivanc, Demet Ozgur-Unluakin

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Over the past years, technological innovations and advancements have played an important role in the industrial world. Due to technological improvements, the degree of complexity of the systems has increased. Hence, all systems are getting more uncertain that emerges from increased complexity, resulting in more cost. It is challenging to cope with this situation. So, implementing efficient planning of maintenance activities in such systems are getting more essential. Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) are powerful tools for stochastic sequential decision problems under uncertainty. Although maintenance optimization in a dynamic environment can be modeled as such a sequential decision problem, POMDPs are not widely used for tackling maintenance problems. However, they can be well-suited frameworks for obtaining optimal maintenance policies. In the classical representation of the POMDP framework, the system is denoted by a single node which has multiple states. The main drawback of this classical approach is that the state space grows exponentially with the number of state variables. On the other side, factored representation of POMDPs enables to simplify the complexity of the states by taking advantage of the factored structure already available in the nature of the problem. The main idea of factored POMDPs is that they can be compactly modeled through dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs), which are graphical representations for stochastic processes, by exploiting the structure of this representation. This study aims to demonstrate how maintenance planning of dynamic systems can be modeled with factored POMDPs. An empirical maintenance planning problem of a dynamic system consisting of four partially observable components deteriorating in time is designed. To solve the empirical model, we resort to Symbolic Perseus solver which is one of the state-of-the-art factored POMDP solvers enabling approximate solutions. We generate some more predefined policies based on corrective or proactive maintenance strategies. We execute the policies on the empirical problem for many replications and compare their performances under various scenarios. The results show that the computed policies from the POMDP model are superior to the others. Acknowledgment: This work is supported by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TÜBİTAK) under grant no: 117M587.

Keywords: factored representation, maintenance, multi-component system, partially observable Markov decision processes

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Authors: Faiz N. K. Yusufi, Aquil Ahmed, Jamal Ahmad

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Predicting the risk of diabetic retinopathy (DR) in Indian type 2 diabetes patients is immensely necessary. India, being the second largest country after China in terms of a number of diabetic patients, to the best of our knowledge not a single risk score for complications has ever been investigated. Diabetic retinopathy is a serious complication and is the topmost reason for visual impairment across countries. Any type or form of DR has been taken as the event of interest, be it mild, back, grade I, II, III, and IV DR. A sample was determined and randomly collected from the Rajiv Gandhi Centre for Diabetes and Endocrinology, J.N.M.C., A.M.U., Aligarh, India. Collected variables include patients data such as sex, age, height, weight, body mass index (BMI), blood sugar fasting (BSF), post prandial sugar (PP), glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), systolic blood pressure (SBP), smoking, alcohol habits, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high density lipoprotein (HDL), low density lipoprotein (LDL), very low density lipoprotein (VLDL), physical activity, duration of diabetes, diet control, history of antihypertensive drug treatment, family history of diabetes, waist circumference, hip circumference, medications, central obesity and history of DR. Cox proportional hazard regression is used to design risk scores for the prediction of retinopathy. Model calibration and discrimination are assessed from Hosmer Lemeshow and area under receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). Overfitting and underfitting of the model are checked by applying regularization techniques and best method is selected between ridge, lasso and elastic net regression. Optimal cut off point is chosen by Youden’s index. Five-year probability of DR is predicted by both survival function, and Markov chain two state model and the better technique is concluded. The risk scores developed can be applied by doctors and patients themselves for self evaluation. Furthermore, the five-year probabilities can be applied as well to forecast and maintain the condition of patients. This provides immense benefit in real application of DR prediction in T2DM.

Keywords: Cox proportional hazard regression, diabetic retinopathy, ROC curve, type 2 diabetes mellitus

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