Search results for: average life time
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 26914

Search results for: average life time

25234 Family Caregiver Transitions and Health in Old Age: A Longitudinal Perspective

Authors: Cecilia Fagerstrom, Solve Elmstahl, Lena S. Wranker

Abstract:

The conditions of increased morbidity in an aging population cause the need for family care to become more common at an advanced age. The role of family caregivers may well last for a long time but may also change over time, from being caregivers to being non-caregivers or vice versa. Although demands associated with family caring change as individuals enter into, engage with, and exit from this role, the evidence regarding the impact of family caregiving transitions on the health of older carers is still limited. This study comprised individuals (n=2294, 60+years) from the southern part of Sweden included in the project Swedish National study of Aging and Care. Caregiving transitions are discussed in the categories: enter, exit, and continuing during a six-year period. Individuals who exited caregiving during the time were older than those who continued or entered into the role of caregiving. At the six-year follow-up, caregivers who were continuing or had exited caregiving were more often worried about their own health compared to baseline. Resembling findings were not found in those who entered caregiving. Family caregiving transitions of exiting, entering or continuing had no effect on the individuals’ functional, physical and mental health expect for participants who entered in caregiving. For them, entering the role of family caregiving was associated with an improvement in physical health during the six years follow up period. Conclusion: Although the health impact of different caregiving transitions in late life does not differ, individual conditions and health at baseline are important parameters to take into consideration to improve long-term health in family caregivers.

Keywords: family caregiving, health, old age, transition

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25233 Internet-Of-Things and Ergonomics, Increasing Productivity and Reducing Waste: A Case Study

Authors: V. Jaime Contreras, S. Iliana Nunez, S. Mario Sanchez

Abstract:

Inside a manufacturing facility, we can find innumerable automatic and manual operations, all of which are relevant to the production process. Some of these processes add more value to the products more than others. Manual operations tend to add value to the product since they can be found in the final assembly area o final operations of the process. In this areas, where a mistake or accident can increase the cost of waste exponentially. To reduce or mitigate these costly mistakes, one approach is to rely on automation to eliminate the operator from the production line - requires a hefty investment and development of specialized machinery. In our approach, the center of the solution is the operator through sufficient and adequate instrumentation, real-time reporting and ergonomics. Efficiency and reduced cycle time can be achieved thorough the integration of Internet-of-Things (IoT) ready technologies into assembly operations to enhance the ergonomics of the workstations. Augmented reality visual aids, RFID triggered personalized workstation dimensions and real-time data transfer and reporting can help achieve these goals. In this case study, a standard work cell will be used for real-life data acquisition and a simulation software to extend the data points beyond the test cycle. Three comparison scenarios will run in the work cell. Each scenario will introduce a dimension of the ergonomics to measure its impact independently. Furthermore, the separate test will determine the limitations of the technology and provide a reference for operating costs and investment required. With the ability, to monitor costs, productivity, cycle time and scrap/waste in real-time the ROI (return on investment) can be determined at the different levels to integration. This case study will help to show that ergonomics in the assembly lines can make significant impact when IoT technologies are introduced. Ergonomics can effectively reduce waste and increase productivity with minimal investment if compared with setting up to custom machine.

Keywords: augmented reality visual aids, ergonomics, real-time data acquisition and reporting, RFID triggered workstation dimensions

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25232 Frailty Models for Modeling Heterogeneity: Simulation Study and Application to Quebec Pension Plan

Authors: Souad Romdhane, Lotfi Belkacem

Abstract:

When referring to actuarial analysis of lifetime, only models accounting for observable risk factors have been developed. Within this context, Cox proportional hazards model (CPH model) is commonly used to assess the effects of observable covariates as gender, age, smoking habits, on the hazard rates. These covariates may fail to fully account for the true lifetime interval. This may be due to the existence of another random variable (frailty) that is still being ignored. The aim of this paper is to examine the shared frailty issue in the Cox proportional hazard model by including two different parametric forms of frailty into the hazard function. Four estimated methods are used to fit them. The performance of the parameter estimates is assessed and compared between the classical Cox model and these frailty models through a real-life data set from the Quebec Pension Plan and then using a more general simulation study. This performance is investigated in terms of the bias of point estimates and their empirical standard errors in both fixed and random effect parts. Both the simulation and the real dataset studies showed differences between classical Cox model and shared frailty model.

Keywords: life insurance-pension plan, survival analysis, risk factors, cox proportional hazards model, multivariate failure-time data, shared frailty, simulations study

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25231 Forecasting the Volatility of Geophysical Time Series with Stochastic Volatility Models

Authors: Maria C. Mariani, Md Al Masum Bhuiyan, Osei K. Tweneboah, Hector G. Huizar

Abstract:

This work is devoted to the study of modeling geophysical time series. A stochastic technique with time-varying parameters is used to forecast the volatility of data arising in geophysics. In this study, the volatility is defined as a logarithmic first-order autoregressive process. We observe that the inclusion of log-volatility into the time-varying parameter estimation significantly improves forecasting which is facilitated via maximum likelihood estimation. This allows us to conclude that the estimation algorithm for the corresponding one-step-ahead suggested volatility (with ±2 standard prediction errors) is very feasible since it possesses good convergence properties.

Keywords: Augmented Dickey Fuller Test, geophysical time series, maximum likelihood estimation, stochastic volatility model

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25230 A Multi-Modal Virtual Walkthrough of the Virtual Past and Present Based on Panoramic View, Crowd Simulation and Acoustic Heritage on Mobile Platform

Authors: Lim Chen Kim, Tan Kian Lam, Chan Yi Chee

Abstract:

This research presents a multi-modal simulation in the reconstruction of the past and the construction of present in digital cultural heritage on mobile platform. In bringing the present life, the virtual environment is generated through a presented scheme for rapid and efficient construction of 360° panoramic view. Then, acoustical heritage model and crowd model are presented and improvised into the 360° panoramic view. For the reconstruction of past life, the crowd is simulated and rendered in an old trading port. However, the keystone of this research is in a virtual walkthrough that shows the virtual present life in 2D and virtual past life in 3D, both in an environment of virtual heritage sites in George Town through mobile device. Firstly, the 2D crowd is modelled and simulated using OpenGL ES 1.1 on mobile platform. The 2D crowd is used to portray the present life in 360° panoramic view of a virtual heritage environment based on the extension of Newtonian Laws. Secondly, the 2D crowd is animated and rendered into 3D with improved variety and incorporated into the virtual past life using Unity3D Game Engine. The behaviours of the 3D models are then simulated based on the enhancement of the classical model of Boid algorithm. Finally, a demonstration system is developed and integrated with the models, techniques and algorithms of this research. The virtual walkthrough is demonstrated to a group of respondents and is evaluated through the user-centred evaluation by navigating around the demonstration system. The results of the evaluation based on the questionnaires have shown that the presented virtual walkthrough has been successfully deployed through a multi-modal simulation and such a virtual walkthrough would be particularly useful in a virtual tour and virtual museum applications.

Keywords: Boid Algorithm, Crowd Simulation, Mobile Platform, Newtonian Laws, Virtual Heritage

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25229 Assesment of Quality of Life among Iranian Male Amateur Athletes via WHOQOL-Brief

Authors: Shirko Ahmadi, Ahmad Fallahi, Marco C. Uchida, Gustavo L. Gutierrez

Abstract:

The aims of the present study are to assess and compare the health habits and quality of life (QoL) of Iranian amateur athletes in different sports. A total of 120 male amateur athletes between 17 and 31 years, engaged in 16 kinds of sports which include team (n=44), individual (n=40) and combat sports (n=36) from sports clubs in the west cities of Iran; and also those not involved in any competition in the past. Additionally, this is a cross-sectional, descriptive observational study, which the subjects completed the WHOQOL-brief questionnaire to evaluate QoL. The questionnaire is composed of 26 questions in four domains (physical health, psychological, social and environmental domains), that was applied in the Persian language. Information on the frequency and duration of training sessions were also collected. The Shapiro-Wilk test was used to verify normal distribution, followed by the chi-squared test for proportions and simple analysis of variance for comparisons between groups of sports. Pearson’s correlation was used to assess the relationships between the variables analyzed. According to the findings, those from individual sports obtained highest points in the all domains of QoL; physical domains (87.1 ± 8.1 point), psychological domains (87.6 ± 9.6 point), social domains (89.7 ± 9.2 point), environmental domains (75.5± 10.7 point) and overall QoL score (84.9 ± 9.4 point). Generally, social domains were the highest QoL index (84.3 ± 7.2 points), and environmental domains were the lowest QoL index (68.1 ± 10.8 points), in all of the sports. No correlations were found between QoL domains and time engaged in the sport (r = 0.01; p = 0.93), number of weekly training sessions (r = 0.09; p = 0.37) and session duration (r = -0.06; p= 0.58). Comparison of QoL results with those of the general population revealed higher levels in the physical and psychological components of amateur athletes. In the present study, engaging in sports was associated with higher QoL levels in amateur athletes, particularly in the physical and psychological domains. Moreover, correlations were found between the overall score and domains of QoL.

Keywords: amateur, domains, Iranian, quality of life

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25228 A Review on the Adoption and Acculturation of Digital Technologies among Farmers of Haryana State

Authors: Manisha Ohlan, Manju Dahiya

Abstract:

The present study was conducted in Karnal, Rohtak, and Jhajjar districts of Haryana state, covering 360 respondents. Results showed that 42.78 percent of the respondents had above average knowledge at the preparation stage followed by 48.33 percent of the respondents who had high knowledge at the production stage, and 37.22 percent of the respondents had average knowledge at the processing stage regarding the usage of digital technologies. Nearly half of the respondents (47.50%) agreed with the usage of digital technologies, followed by strongly agreed (19.45%) and strongly disagreed (14.45%). A significant and positive relationship was found between independent variables and knowledge and of digital technologies at 5 percent level of significance. Therefore, the null hypothesis cannot be rejected. All the dependent variables, including knowledge and attitude, had a significant and positive relationship with z value at 5 percent level of significance, which showed that it is between -1.96 to +1.96; therefore, the data falls between the acceptance region, that’s why the null hypothesis is accepted.

Keywords: knowledge, attitude, digital technologies, significant, positive relationship

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25227 The Role of Physical Activity on Some Factors Affecting Cardiovascular Disease

Authors: M. J. Pourvaghar, M. E. Bahram, Sh. Khoshemehry

Abstract:

Hyperlipidemia or an increase in blood lipids is a condition that has been rising, especially during the last decade, with the advancement of the life-span of the car, as an important disease. In fact, it is one of the complications of industrial life and semi-industrial. Hyperlipidemia alone is not a disease, but it is recognized as an important risk factor for coronary artery disease. The methodology of this review article is the use of research to provide the best solution for physical activity and exercise in relation to lowering blood lipids and lowering blood pressure. Also, factors that contribute to improving the health status of humans should be introduced. Research findings in this article show that physical activity with a specific duration and severity can keep a person away from the cardiovascular disease. The result shows that regular physical activity with low intensity and long periods of time is essential for human health. Physical mobility reduces blood pressure, reduces the harmful fats and does not cause cardiovascular disease. More than half of the patients suffering from cardiovascular problems are afflicted with blood lipids. On the other hand, high blood pressure is one of the serious health hazards in the world today, which causes a large number of cardiovascular problems and mortality in the world. Undoubtedly, the second most common risk factor for heart disease is high blood pressure after cigarette smoking.

Keywords: blood pressure, cardiovascular, hyperlipidemia, risk factor

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25226 Spatial Climate Changes in the Province of Macerata, Central Italy, Analyzed by GIS Software

Authors: Matteo Gentilucci, Marco Materazzi, Gilberto Pambianchi

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Climate change is an increasingly central issue in the world, because it affects many of human activities. In this context regional studies are of great importance because they sometimes differ from the general trend. This research focuses on a small area of central Italy which overlooks the Adriatic Sea, the province of Macerata. The aim is to analyze space-based climate changes, for precipitation and temperatures, in the last 3 climatological standard normals (1961-1990; 1971-2000; 1981-2010) through GIS software. The data collected from 30 weather stations for temperature and 61 rain gauges for precipitation were subject to quality controls: validation and homogenization. These data were fundamental for the spatialization of the variables (temperature and precipitation) through geostatistical techniques. To assess the best geostatistical technique for interpolation, the results of cross correlation were used. The co-kriging method with altitude as independent variable produced the best cross validation results for all time periods, among the methods analysed, with 'root mean square error standardized' close to 1, 'mean standardized error' close to 0, 'average standard error' and 'root mean square error' with similar values. The maps resulting from the analysis were compared by subtraction between rasters, producing 3 maps of annual variation and three other maps for each month of the year (1961/1990-1971/2000; 1971/2000-1981/2010; 1961/1990-1981/2010). The results show an increase in average annual temperature of about 0.1°C between 1961-1990 and 1971-2000 and 0.6 °C between 1961-1990 and 1981-2010. Instead annual precipitation shows an opposite trend, with an average difference from 1961-1990 to 1971-2000 of about 35 mm and from 1961-1990 to 1981-2010 of about 60 mm. Furthermore, the differences in the areas have been highlighted with area graphs and summarized in several tables as descriptive analysis. In fact for temperature between 1961-1990 and 1971-2000 the most areally represented frequency is 0.08°C (77.04 Km² on a total of about 2800 km²) with a kurtosis of 3.95 and a skewness of 2.19. Instead, the differences for temperatures from 1961-1990 to 1981-2010 show a most areally represented frequency of 0.83 °C, with -0.45 as kurtosis and 0.92 as skewness (36.9 km²). Therefore it can be said that distribution is more pointed for 1961/1990-1971/2000 and smoother but more intense in the growth for 1961/1990-1981/2010. In contrast, precipitation shows a very similar shape of distribution, although with different intensities, for both variations periods (first period 1961/1990-1971/2000 and second one 1961/1990-1981/2010) with similar values of kurtosis (1st = 1.93; 2nd = 1.34), skewness (1st = 1.81; 2nd = 1.62 for the second) and area of the most represented frequency (1st = 60.72 km²; 2nd = 52.80 km²). In conclusion, this methodology of analysis allows the assessment of small scale climate change for each month of the year and could be further investigated in relation to regional atmospheric dynamics.

Keywords: climate change, GIS, interpolation, co-kriging

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25225 Interrogating the Theoretical Basis of the Freedom Charter in South Africa

Authors: Sibonginkosi Mazibuko

Abstract:

The “adoption” of the Freedom Charter in 1955 at Kliptown south of Johannesburg, South Africa represented a desire to create a society that is based on common citizenship, and democracy. The architects of the Charter had a vision of a society that lived in peace with itself. Today, the Charter is still promoted as the best thing that ever happened to a society ravaged by racism, dispossession, oppression and exploitation – a society divided in all aspects of its life. This paper moves from the understanding that land is fundamental to all life. It interrogates the Charter’s claim on land. At a time when the colonised world sought to free themselves from the chains of colonialism and Africans throughout the continent demanded Africa for the Africans, the Freedom Charter claimed South Africa for all who lived in it. To the extent that this paper problematizes the philosophical underpinnings of the Charter, it uses the methodology of dialectic materialism to understand the theoretical basis of the Freedom Charter. The paper argues that the understanding, desire and the vision of the Freedom Charter were, as they are today, irreconcilable. To that effect and in pursuit of narrow class interests, the Charter justified land dispossession and unsustainable living conditions for the dispossessed majority. The paper then concludes that, by misrepresenting the critically fundamental land question, the Charter tried to reconcile the dispossessed with their dispossession and thus reflected coloniality and whiteness long before colonialism and settler-colonialism came to an end in South Africa.

Keywords: colonialism, contradictions, freedom charter, South Africa

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25224 Clinical Staff Perceptions of the Quality of End-of-Life Care in an Acute Private Hospital: A Mixed Methods Design

Authors: Rosemary Saunders, Courtney Glass, Karla Seaman, Karen Gullick, Julie Andrew, Anne Wilkinson, Ashwini Davray

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Current literature demonstrates that most Australians receive end-of-life care in a hospital setting, despite most hoping to die within their own home. The necessity for high quality end-of-life care has been emphasised by the Australian Commission on Safety and Quality in Health Care and the National Safety and Quality in Health Services Standards depict the requirement for comprehensive care at the end of life (Action 5.20), reinforcing the obligation for continual organisational assessment to determine if these standards are suitably achieved. Limited research exploring clinical staff perspectives of end-of-life care delivery has been conducted within an Australian private health context. This study aimed to investigate clinical staff member perceptions of end-of-life care delivery at a private hospital in Western Australia. The study comprised of a multi-faceted mixed-methods methodology, part of a larger study. Data was obtained from clinical staff utilising surveys and focus groups. A total of 133 questionnaires were completed by clinical staff, including registered nurses (61.4%), enrolled nurses (22.7%), allied health professionals (9.9%), non-palliative care consultants (3.8%) and junior doctors (2.2%). A total of 14.7% of respondents were palliative care ward staff members. Additionally, seven staff focus groups were conducted with physicians (n=3), nurses (n=26) and allied health professionals including social workers (n=1), dietitians (n=2), physiotherapists (n=5) and speech pathologists (n=3). Key findings from the surveys highlighted that the majority of staff agreed it was part of their role to talk to doctors about the care of patients who they thought may be dying, and recognised the importance of communication, appropriate training and support for clinical staff to provide quality end-of-life care. Thematic analysis of the qualitative data generated three key themes: creating the setting which highlighted the importance of adequate resourcing and conducive physical environments for end-of-life care and to support staff and families; planning and care delivery which emphasised the necessity for collaboration between staff, families and patients to develop care plans and treatment directives; and collaborating in end-of-life care, with effective communication and teamwork leading to achievable care delivery expectations. These findings contribute to health professionals better understanding of end-of-life care provision and the importance of collaborating with patients and families in care delivery. It is crucial that health care providers implement strategies to overcome gaps in care, so quality end-of-life care is provided. Findings from this study have been translated into practice, with the development and implementation of resources, training opportunities, support networks and guidelines for the delivery of quality end-of-life care.

Keywords: clinical staff, end-of-life care, mixed-methods, private hospital.

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25223 A Regression Model for Predicting Sugar Crystal Size in a Fed-Batch Vacuum Evaporative Crystallizer

Authors: Sunday B. Alabi, Edikan P. Felix, Aniediong M. Umo

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Crystal size distribution is of great importance in the sugar factories. It determines the market value of granulated sugar and also influences the cost of production of sugar crystals. Typically, sugar is produced using fed-batch vacuum evaporative crystallizer. The crystallization quality is examined by crystal size distribution at the end of the process which is quantified by two parameters: the average crystal size of the distribution in the mean aperture (MA) and the width of the distribution of the coefficient of variation (CV). Lack of real-time measurement of the sugar crystal size hinders its feedback control and eventual optimisation of the crystallization process. An attractive alternative is to use a soft sensor (model-based method) for online estimation of the sugar crystal size. Unfortunately, the available models for sugar crystallization process are not suitable as they do not contain variables that can be measured easily online. The main contribution of this paper is the development of a regression model for estimating the sugar crystal size as a function of input variables which are easy to measure online. This has the potential to provide real-time estimates of crystal size for its effective feedback control. Using 7 input variables namely: initial crystal size (Lo), temperature (T), vacuum pressure (P), feed flowrate (Ff), steam flowrate (Fs), initial super-saturation (S0) and crystallization time (t), preliminary studies were carried out using Minitab 14 statistical software. Based on the existing sugar crystallizer models, and the typical ranges of these 7 input variables, 128 datasets were obtained from a 2-level factorial experimental design. These datasets were used to obtain a simple but online-implementable 6-input crystal size model. It seems the initial crystal size (Lₒ) does not play a significant role. The goodness of the resulting regression model was evaluated. The coefficient of determination, R² was obtained as 0.994, and the maximum absolute relative error (MARE) was obtained as 4.6%. The high R² (~1.0) and the reasonably low MARE values are an indication that the model is able to predict sugar crystal size accurately as a function of the 6 easy-to-measure online variables. Thus, the model can be used as a soft sensor to provide real-time estimates of sugar crystal size during sugar crystallization process in a fed-batch vacuum evaporative crystallizer.

Keywords: crystal size, regression model, soft sensor, sugar, vacuum evaporative crystallizer

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25222 The Theology of a Muslim Artist: Tawfiq al-Hakim

Authors: Abdul Rahman Chamseddine

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Tawfiq al-Hakim remains one of the most prominent playwrights in his native in Egypt, and in the broader Arab world. His works, at the time of their release, drew international attention and acclaim. His first 1933 masterpiece Ahl al-Kahf (The People of the Cave) especially, garnered fame and recognition in both Europe and the Arab world. Borrowing its title from the Qur’anic Sura, al-Hakim’s play relays the untold story of the life of those 'three saints' after they wake up from their prolonged sleep. The playwright’s selection of topics upon which to base his works displays a deep appreciation of Arabic and Islamic heritage. Al-Hakim was clearly influenced by Islam, to such a degree that he wrote the biography of the Prophet Muhammad in 1936 very early in his career. Knowing that Al-Hakim was preceded by many poets and creative writers in writing the Prophet Muhammad’s biography. Notably like Al-Barudi, Ahmad Shawqi, Haykal, Al-‘Aqqad, and Taha Husayn who have had their own ways in expressing their views of the Prophet Muhammad. The attempt to understand the concern of all those renaissance men and others in the person of the Prophet would be indispensable in this study. This project will examine the reasons behind al-Hakim’s choice to draw upon these particular texts, embedded as they are in the context of Arabic and Islamic heritage, and how the use of traditional texts serves his contemporary goals. The project will also analyze the image of Islam in al-Hakim’s imagination. Elsewhere, he envisions letters or conversations between God and himself, which offers a window into understanding the powerful impact of the Divine on Tawfiq al-Hakim, one that informs his literature and merits further scholarly attention. His works occupying a major rank in Arabic literature, does not reveal Al-Hakim solely but the unquestioned assumptions operative in the life of his community, its mental make-up and its attitudes. Furthermore, studying the reception of works that touch on sensitive issues, like writing a letter to God, in Al-Hakim’s historical context would be of a great significance in the process of comprehending the mentality of the Muslim community at that time.

Keywords: Arabic language, Arabic literature, Arabic theology, modern Arabic literature

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25221 The Association between Attachment Styles, Satisfaction of Life, Alexithymia, and Psychological Resilience: The Mediational Role of Self-Esteem

Authors: Zahide Tepeli Temiz, Itir Tari Comert

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Attachment patterns based on early emotional interactions between infant and primary caregiver continue to be influential in adult life, in terms of mental health and behaviors of individuals. Several studies reveal that infant-caregiver relationships have impressed the affect regulation, coping with stressful and negative situations, general satisfaction of life, and self image in adulthood, besides the attachment styles. The present study aims to examine the relationships between university students’ attachment style and their self-esteem, alexithymic features, satisfaction of life, and level of resilience. In line with this aim, the hypothesis of the prediction of attachment styles (anxious and avoidant) over life satisfaction, self-esteem, alexithymia, and psychological resilience was tested. Additionally, in this study Structural Equational Modeling was conducted to investigate the mediational role of self-esteem in the relationship between attachment styles and alexithymia, life satisfaction, and resilience. This model was examined with path analysis. The sample of the research consists of 425 university students who take education from several region of Turkey. The participants who sign the informed consent completed the Demographic Information Form, Experiences in Close Relationships-Revised, Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale, The Satisfaction with Life Scale, Toronto Alexithymia Scale, and Resilience Scale for Adults. According to results, anxious, and avoidant dimensions of insecure attachment predicted the self-esteem score and alexithymia in positive direction. On the other hand, these dimensions of attachment predicted life satisfaction in negative direction. The results of linear regression analysis indicated that anxious and avoidant attachment styles didn’t predict the resilience. This result doesn’t support the theory and research indicating the relationship between attachment style and psychological resilience. The results of path analysis revealed the mediational role self esteem in the relation between anxious, and avoidant attachment styles and life satisfaction. In addition, SEM analysis indicated the indirect effect of attachment styles over alexithymia and resilience besides their direct effect. These findings support the hypothesis of this research relation to mediating role of self-esteem. Attachment theorists suggest that early attachment experiences, including supportive and responsive family interactions, have an effect on resilience to harmful situations in adult life, ability to identify, describe, and regulate emotions and also general satisfaction with life. Several studies examining the relationship between attachment styles and life satisfaction, alexithymia, and psychological resilience draw attention to mediational role of self-esteem. Results of this study support the theory of attachment patterns with the mediation of self-image influence the emotional, cognitive, and behavioral regulation of person throughout the adulthood. Therefore, it is thought that any intervention intended for recovery in attachment relationship will increase the self-esteem, life satisfaction, and resilience level, on the one side, decrease the alexithymic features, on the other side.

Keywords: alexithymia, anxious attachment, avoidant attachment, life satisfaction, path analysis, resilience, self-esteem, structural equation

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25220 Anticancer Activity of Milk Fat Rich in Conjugated Linoleic Acid Against Ehrlich Ascites Carcinoma Cells in Female Swiss Albino Mice

Authors: Diea Gamal Abo El-Hassan, Salwa Ahmed Aly, Abdelrahman Mahmoud Abdelgwad

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The major conjugated linoleic acid (CLA) isomers have anticancer effect, especially breast cancer cells, inhibits cell growth and induces cell death. Also, CLA has several health benefits in vivo, including antiatherogenesis, antiobesity, and modulation of immune function. The present study aimed to assess the safety and anticancer effects of milk fat CLA against in vivo Ehrlich ascites carcinoma (EAC) in female Swiss albino mice. This was based on acute toxicity study, detection of the tumor growth, life span of EAC bearing hosts, and simultaneous alterations in the hematological, biochemical, and histopathological profiles. Materials and Methods: One hundred and fifty adult female mice were equally divided into five groups. Groups (1-2) were normal controls, and Groups (3-5) were tumor transplanted mice (TTM) inoculated intraperitoneally with EAC cells (2×106 /0.2 mL). Group (3) was (TTM positive control). Group (4) TTM fed orally on balanced diet supplemented with milk fat CLA (40 mg CLA/kg body weight). Group (5) TTM fed orally on balanced diet supplemented with the same level of CLA 28 days before tumor cells inoculation. Blood samples and specimens from liver and kidney were collected from each group. The effect of milk fat CLA on the growth of tumor, life span of TTM, and simultaneous alterations in the hematological, biochemical, and histopathological profiles were examined. Results: For CLA treated TTM, significant decrease in tumor weight, ascetic volume, viable Ehrlich cells accompanied with increase in life span were observed. Hematological and biochemical profiles reverted to more or less normal levels and histopathology showed minimal effects. Conclusion: The present study proved the safety and anticancer efficiency of milk fat CLA and provides a scientific basis for its medicinal use as anticancer attributable to the additive or synergistic effects of its isomers.

Keywords: anticancer activity, conjugated linoleic acid, Ehrlich ascites carcinoma, % increase in life span, mean survival time, tumor transplanted mice.

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25219 Development of Fire Douse Vehicle

Authors: Nikhil Verma, Akshay Kant Mishra, Rishabh Rastogi, Bikarama Prasad Yadav

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Emerging fire incidents are the protuberant contributor out turning into life loss, property damage and importantly firefighters. It insinuates that a firefighting and rescue operation of the existing equipment or apparatus and their proficiency is limited, particularly in annihilating firefighting environments. The proposed methodology will help in developing a technology which can be useful in minimizing the risks and losses due to fire. In this paper, design and development of combat mini vehicle comprising of multi-purpose nozzle system is proposed which can target diverse fires simultaneously at distinct time and location. Basically, the system is semi-automated type protection system which can be manoeuvred by controller. Designing of robust vehicle based on semi-automated protection type system is consummated using SolidWorks platform. Concept of developing a robust vehicle will help to fight fires in multiple directions reducing the time required to douse multiple fires.

Keywords: fire douse vehicle, multiple fires, multi-purpose nozzle, semi-automated system

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25218 Controllable Modification of Glass-Crystal Composites with Ion-Exchange Technique

Authors: Andrey A. Lipovskii, Alexey V. Redkov, Vyacheslav V. Rusan, Dmitry K. Tagantsev, Valentina V. Zhurikhina

Abstract:

The presented research is related to the development of recently proposed technique of the formation of composite materials, like optical glass-ceramics, with predetermined structure and properties of the crystalline component. The technique is based on the control of the size and concentration of the crystalline grains using the phenomenon of glass-ceramics decrystallization (vitrification) induced by ion-exchange. This phenomenon was discovered and explained in the beginning of the 2000s, while related theoretical description was given in 2016 only. In general, the developed theory enables one to model the process and optimize the conditions of ion-exchange processing of glass-ceramics, which provide given properties of crystalline component, in particular, profile of the average size of the crystalline grains. The optimization is possible if one knows two dimensionless parameters of the theoretical model. One of them (β) is the value which is directly related to the solubility of crystalline component of the glass-ceramics in the glass matrix, and another (γ) is equal to the ratio of characteristic times of ion-exchange diffusion and crystalline grain dissolution. The presented study is dedicated to the development of experimental technique and simulation which allow determining these parameters. It is shown that these parameters can be deduced from the data on the space distributions of diffusant concentrations and average size of crystalline grains in the glass-ceramics samples subjected to ion-exchange treatment. Measurements at least at two temperatures and two processing times at each temperature are necessary. The composite material used was a silica-based glass-ceramics with crystalline grains of Li2OSiO2. Cubical samples of the glass-ceramics (6x6x6 mm3) underwent the ion exchange process in NaNO3 salt melt at 520 oC (for 16 and 48 h), 540 oC (for 8 and 24 h), 560 oC (for 4 and 12 h), and 580 oC (for 2 and 8 h). The ion exchange processing resulted in the glass-ceramics vitrification in the subsurface layers where ion-exchange diffusion took place. Slabs about 1 mm thick were cut from the central part of the samples and their big facets were polished. These slabs were used to find profiles of diffusant concentrations and average size of the crystalline grains. The concentration profiles were determined from refractive index profiles measured with Max-Zender interferometer, and profiles of the average size of the crystalline grains were determined with micro-Raman spectroscopy. Numerical simulation were based on the developed theoretical model of the glass-ceramics decrystallization induced by ion exchange. The simulation of the processes was carried out for different values of β and γ parameters under all above-mentioned ion exchange conditions. As a result, the temperature dependences of the parameters, which provided a reliable coincidence of the simulation and experimental data, were found. This ensured the adequate modeling of the process of the glass-ceramics decrystallization in 520-580 oC temperature interval. Developed approach provides a powerful tool for fine tuning of the glass-ceramics structure, namely, concentration and average size of crystalline grains.

Keywords: diffusion, glass-ceramics, ion exchange, vitrification

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25217 A Fast Optimizer for Large-scale Fulfillment Planning based on Genetic Algorithm

Authors: Choonoh Lee, Seyeon Park, Dongyun Kang, Jaehyeong Choi, Soojee Kim, Younggeun Kim

Abstract:

Market Kurly is the first South Korean online grocery retailer that guarantees same-day, overnight shipping. More than 1.6 million customers place an average of 4.7 million orders and add 3 to 14 products into a cart per month. The company has sold almost 30,000 kinds of various products in the past 6 months, including food items, cosmetics, kitchenware, toys for kids/pets, and even flowers. The company is operating and expanding multiple dry, cold, and frozen fulfillment centers in order to store and ship these products. Due to the scale and complexity of the fulfillment, pick-pack-ship processes are planned and operated in batches, and thus, the planning that decides the batch of the customers’ orders is a critical factor in overall productivity. This paper introduces a metaheuristic optimization method that reduces the complexity of batch processing in a fulfillment center. The method is an iterative genetic algorithm with heuristic creation and evolution strategies; it aims to group similar orders into pick-pack-ship batches to minimize the total number of distinct products. With a well-designed approach to create initial genes, the method produces streamlined plans, up to 13.5% less complex than the actual plans carried out in the company’s fulfillment centers in the previous months. Furthermore, our digital-twin simulations show that the optimized plans can reduce 3% of operation time for packing, which is the most complex and time-consuming task in the process. The optimization method implements a multithreading design on the Spring framework to support the company’s warehouse management systems in near real-time, finding a solution for 4,000 orders within 5 to 7 seconds on an AWS c5.2xlarge instance.

Keywords: fulfillment planning, genetic algorithm, online grocery retail, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 82
25216 Life Cycle Assessment in Road Pavements: A Literature Review and the Potential Use in Brazil

Authors: B. V. Santos, M. T. M. Carvalho, J. H. S. Rêgo

Abstract:

The article presents a literature review on recent advances related to studies of the environmental impact of road pavements, with reference to the concepts of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). An introduction with the main motivations for the development of the research is presented, with a current overview of the Brazilian transport infrastructure and the projections for the road mode for the coming years, and the possibility of using the referred methodology by the road sector in Brazil. The article explores the origin of LCA in road pavements and the details linked to its implementation from the perspective of the four main phases of the study (goal and scope definition, inventory analysis, impact assessment, and interpretation). Finally, the main advances and deficiencies observed in the selected studies are gathered, with the proposition of research fields that can be explored in future national or international studies of LCA of road pavements.

Keywords: Brazil, life cycle assessment, road pavements, sustainable

Procedia PDF Downloads 78
25215 Using Hybrid Method for Inactivation of Microorganism and Enzymes in a Berry Juice

Authors: Golnoosh Torabian, P. Valtchev, F. Dehghani

Abstract:

The need for efficient nutraceutical products has been dramatically changing the approach of the industrial processes. The development of novel mild processes is highly demanded for the production of such products; especially when both quality and safety need to be guaranteed during their long shelf life. Within this research, for the first time, we investigated the effect of supercritical carbon dioxide treatment for the inactivation of microbes and enzymes in a berry juice possessing therapeutic effect. We demonstrated that a complete inactivation of microbes can be achieved at optimized conditions of treatment. However, the bottle neck of the process was represented by the unpromising inactivation of the degradative enzyme by supercritical carbon dioxide treatment. However, complete enzyme inactivation was achieved by applying two strategies: the first was optimizing juicing method by adding a mechanical step and the second strategy was addition of natural inhibitors to the juice. Overall these results demonstrate that our hybrid process has a significant effect on the inactivation of microorganism and enzymes in the fresh juice. The developed process opens the possibility for the evolution of new products with optimal nutritional and sensorial characteristics, as well as offering a competitive cost and an environmentally friendly alternative for pasteurization and extension of shelf life in a wide range of natural therapeutic products.

Keywords: hybrid method, berry juice, pasteurization, enzymes inactivation

Procedia PDF Downloads 191
25214 Melatonin Improved Vase Quality by Delaying Oxidation Reaction and Supplying More Energies in Cut Peony (Paeonia Lactiflora cv. Sarah)

Authors: Tai Chen, Caihuan Tian, Xiuxia Ren, Jingqi Xue, Xiuxin Zhang

Abstract:

The herbaceous peony has become increasingly popular worldwide in recent years, especially as a cut flower with great economic value. However, peony has a very short vase life, only 3-5 d usually, which seriously affects its commodity value. In this study, we used the cut peony (Paeonia lactiflora cv. Sarah) as a material and found that melatonin treatment significantly improved its postharvest performance. In the control group, its vase life was 4.8 d, accompanied by petal dropping at last; melatonin treatment (40 μM) increased this time to 6.9 d without petal dropping at the end. Further study showed that melatonin treatment significantly increased the activity of antioxidant enzymes as well as reduced sugar content in petals, whereas the starch content in petals decreased. These results indicated that melatonin treatment may delay the oxidation reaction caused by aging, which also provides extra energy for maintaining flowering. Through full-length transcriptome sequencing, a total of 2819 differentially expressed genes (DEGs) between control and melatonin treatment groups were identified. KEGG enrichment analysis showed that these DEGs were mainly involved in three pathways, including melatonin synthesis, starch and sucrose conversion, and plant disease resistance. After the RT-qPCR verification, we identified three DEGs, named PlBAM3, PlWRKY22 and PlTIP1, and they should play major roles in melatonin-improved postharvest performance. One possible reason is that PlBAM3 caused maltose production (by starch degradation), maintained the proline biosynthesis, and then alleviated oxidative stress. Another reason is that both PlBAM3 and PlWRKY22 are key drought resistance regulators, which have the ability to alleviate osmotic stress and improve water absorption, which may also help to improve the postharvest quality of cut peony. In addition, PlTIP1 is involved in the sugar signal pathway, indicating sugar may also as a signal substance during this process. Our work may give new ideas for developing new ways to prolong the vase life of cut peony and improve its commodity value eventually.

Keywords: cut peony, melatonin, vase life, oxidation reaction, energy supply, differentially expressed genes

Procedia PDF Downloads 50
25213 Assessment of Cafe Design Criteria in a Consumerist Society: An Approach on Place Attachment

Authors: Azadeh Razzagh Shoar, Hassan Sadeghi Naeini

Abstract:

There is little doubt that concepts such as space and place have become more common considering that human beings have grown more apart and more than having contact with each other, they are in contact with objects, spaces, and places. Cafés, as a third place which is neither home nor workplace, have attracted these authors’ interests, who are industrial and interior designers. There has been much research on providing suitable cafés, customer behavior, and criteria for spatial sense. However, little research has been carried out on consumerism, desire for variety, and their relationship with changing places, and specifically cafes in term of interior design. In fact, customer’s sense of place has mostly been overlooked. In this case study, authors conducted to challenge the desire for variety and consumerism as well as investigating the addictive factors in cafés. From the designers’ point of view and by collecting data through observing and interviewing café managers, this study investigates and analyzes the customers in two cafes located in a commercial building in northern Tehran (a part of city with above average economic conditions). Since these two cafés are at the same level in terms of interior and spatial design, the question is raised as to why customers patronize the newly built café despite their loyalty to the older café. This study aims to investigate and find the criteria based on the sense of space (café) in a consumerist society, a world where consumption is a myth. Going to cafés in a larger scale than a product can show a selection and finally who you are, where you go, which brand of coffee you prefer, and what time of the day you would like to have your coffee. The results show that since people spend time in cafés more than any other third place, the interaction they have with their environment is more than anything else, and they are consumers of time and place more than coffee or any other product. Also, if there is a sense of consumerism and variety, it is mostly for the place rather than coffee and other products. To satisfy this sense, individuals go to a new place (the new café). It can be easily observed that this sense overshadows the sense of efficiency, design, facilities and all important factor for a café.

Keywords: place, cafe, consumerist society, consumerism, desire for variety

Procedia PDF Downloads 162
25212 Chemical Synthesis and Microwave Sintering of SnO2-Based Nanoparticles for Varistor Films

Authors: Glauco M. M. M. Lustosa, João Paulo C. Costa, Leinig Antônio Perazolli, Maria Aparecida Zaghete

Abstract:

SnO2 has electrical conductivity due to the excess of electrons and structural defects, being its electrical behavior highly dependent on sintering temperature and chemical composition. The addition of metals modifiers into the crystalline structure can improve and controlling the behavior of some semiconductor oxides that can therefore develop different applications such as varistors (ceramic with non-ohmic behavior between current and voltage, i.e. conductive during normal operation and resistive during overvoltage). The polymeric precursor method, based on the complexation reaction between metal ion and policarboxylic acid and then polymerized with ethylene glycol, was used to obtain nanopowders ceramic. The metal immobilization reduces its segregation during the decomposition of the polyester resulting in a crystalline oxide with high chemical homogeneity. The preparation of films from ceramics nanoparticles using electrophoretic deposition method (EPD) brings prospects for a new generation of smaller size devices with easy integration technology. EPD allows to control time and current and therefore it can have control of the thickness, surface roughness and the film density, quickly and with low production costs. The sintering process is key to control size and grain boundary density of the film. In this step, there is the diffusion of metals that promote densification and control of intrinsic defects or change these defects which will form and modify the potential barrier in the grain boundary. The use of microwave oven for sintering is an advantageous process due to the fast and homogeneous heating rate, promoting the diffusion and densification without irregular grain growth. This research was done a comparative study of sintering temperature by use of zinc as modifier agent to verify the influence on sintering step aiming to promote densification and grain growth, which influences the potential barrier formation and then changed the electrical behavior. SnO2-nanoparticles were obtained with 1 %mol of ZnO + 0.05 %mol of Nb2O5 (SZN), deposited as film through EPD (voltage 2 kV, time of 10 min) on Si/Pt substrate. Sintering was made in a microwave oven at 800, 900 and 1000 °C. For complete coverage of the substrate by nanoparticles with low surface roughness and uniform thickness was added 0.02 g of solid iodine in alcoholic suspension SnO2 to increase particle surface charge. They were also used magneto in EPD system that improved the deposition rate forming a compact film. Using a scanning electron microscope of high resolution (SEM_FEG) it was observed nanoparticles with average size between 10-20 nm, after sintering the average size was 150 to 200 nm and thickness of 5 µm. Also, it was verified that the temperature at 1000 °C was the most efficient in sintering. The best sintering time was also recorded and determined as 40 minutes. After sintering, the films were recovered with Cr3+ ions layer by EPD, then the films were again thermally treated. The electrical characterizations (nonlinear coefficient of 11.4, voltage rupture of ~60 V and leakage current = 4.8x10−6 A), allow considering the new methodology suitable for prepare SnO2-based varistor applied for development of electrical protection devices for low voltage.

Keywords: chemical synthesis, electrophoretic deposition, microwave sintering, tin dioxide

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25211 Evaluating Evaporation and Seepage Losses in Lakes Using Sentinel Images and the Water Balance Equation

Authors: Abdelrahman Elsehsah

Abstract:

The main objective of this study is to assess changes in the water capacity of Aswan High Dam Lake (AHDL) caused by evaporation and seepage losses. To achieve this objective, a comprehensive methodology was employed. The methodology involves acquiring Sentinel-3 imagery and extracting the surface area of the lake using remote sensing techniques. Using water areas calculated from sentinel images, collected field data, and the lake’s water balance equation, monthly evaporation and seepage losses were estimated for the years 2021 and 2022. Based on the water balance method results, the average monthly evaporation losses for the year 2021 were estimated to be around 1.41 billion cubic meters (Bm3), which closely matches the estimates provided by the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation (MWRI) annual reports (approximately 1.37 Bm3 in the same year). This means that the water balance method slightly overestimated the monthly evaporation losses by about 2.92%. Similarly, the average monthly seepage losses for the year 2022 were estimated to be around 0.005 Bm3, while the MWRI reports indicated approximately 0.0046 Bm3. By another means, the water balance method overestimated the monthly seepage losses by about 8.70%. Furthermore, the study found that the average monthly evaporation rate within AHDL was 210.88 mm/month, which closely aligns with the computed value of approximately 204.9 mm/month by AHDA. These findings indicated that the applied water balance method, utilizing remote sensing and field data, is a reliable tool for estimating monthly evaporation and seepage losses as well as monthly evaporation rates in AHDL.

Keywords: Aswan high dam lake, remote sensing, water balance equation, seepage loss, evaporation loss

Procedia PDF Downloads 33
25210 A Post-Occupancy Evaluation of Urban Landscape Greenway– A Case Study of the Taiyuan Greenway in Taichung City

Authors: A. Yu-Chen Chien, B. Ying-Ju Su

Abstract:

Greenway is a type of linear park which links the planar parklands and connects the open spaces. In the urban environment, except for providing open spaces with recreational function as well as effectively improve the appearance of the surrounding environment, greenway and parkland also creates benefits to the social and psychological aspects of human. In 2014, the statistics of The Ministry of Home Affairs show that citizens in Taichung enjoy the green area at an average of 4.27 square kilometers per person. How to use the existing green space system effectively and enhance the quality of leisure life thus become the major issues today. The study here points out that greenway and parkland and other open spaces are closely related to the daily life of urban residents. Whether the operation could be executed in accordance with the design is our major concern. To explore the issue, we implemented the Post-Occupancy Evaluation of Taiyuan Greenway in Taichung City. In 1956, Taichung city carried out the urban plan according to Howard’s concept about “Garden City” and built the Taiyuan greenway to restrain the urban expansion. 50-year past, due to the population growth and new demands, the government started to reconstruct the program. It is a three stage modification project of “The Townspace Renaissance project in Taiwan” since 2009, of which the greenway construction is the main point. In this research, we mainly focus on the third stage of this program to investigate the user’s preference and degree of satisfaction based on the Post-Occupancy Evaluation about the finished, unfinished, and undergoing construction sectors as well as facilities. We collected and analyzed the data based on the questionnaires and explored the possible facts that might have affected the degree of satisfaction about the greenway modification project based on the chi-square test. We hope to inspect the purpose of the demonstration projects and provide reference to the Taichung government for the modification planning and the greenway design in the future.

Keywords: greenway, landscape greenway, post-occupancy evaluation, Taichung city

Procedia PDF Downloads 329
25209 O2 Saturation Comparison Between Breast Milk Feeding and Tube Feeding in Very Low Birth Weight Neonates

Authors: Ashraf Mohammadzadeh, Ahmad Shah Farhat, Azin Vaezi, Aradokht Vaezi

Abstract:

Background & Aim: Preterm infants born at less than 34 weeks postconceptional age are not as neurologically mature as their term counterparts and thus have difficulty coordinating sucking, swallowing and breathing. As a result, they are traditionally gavage fed until they are able to oral feed successfully. The aim of study was to evaluate comparative effect of orogastric and breast feeding on oxygen saturation in very low birth weight infant (<1500gm). Patients and Methods: In this clinical trial all babies admitted in the Neonatal Research Center of Imamreza Hospital, Mashhad during a 4 months period were elected. Criteria for entrance to study included birth weight ≤ 1500 grams, exclusive breastfeeding, having no special problem after 48 hours, receivinge only routine care and intake of milk was 100cc/kg/day. Each neonate received two rounds of orogastric and breast feeding in the morning and in the afternoon, during which mean oxygen saturation was measured by pulse-oxymetry. During the study the heart rate and temperature of the neonates were monitored, and in case of hypothermia, bradycardia(less than 100 per minute) or apnea the feeding was discontinued and the study was repeated the following day. Data analysis was carried out using SPSS. Results: Fifty neonates were studied. The average birth weight was 1267.20±165.42 grams and average gestational age was 31.81±1.92 and female/male ratio was 1.2. There was no significant statistical difference in arterial oxygen saturation in orogastric and breast feeding in the morning and in the afternoon. (p=0.16 in the morning and p=0.6 in the afternoon). There was no complication of apnea, hypothermia or bradycardia. Conclusion: There was no significant statistical difference between the two methods in arterial oxygen saturation. It seems that oral feeding (which is a natural route) and skin contact between the mother and neonate causes a strong emotional bonding between the two and brings about better social adaptation for the neonate. Also shorter period of stay in hospital is more preferred, and breast feeding should be started at the earliest possible time after birth.

Keywords: Very low birth weight (V.L.B.W), O2 Saturation, Breast Feeding, Tube Feeding

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25208 Oestrogen Replacement In Post-Oophorectomy Women

Authors: Joana Gato, Ahmed Abotabekh, Panayoti Bachkangi

Abstract:

Introduction: Oestrogen is an essential gonadal hormone that plays a vital role in the reproductive system of women1. The average age of menopause in the UK is 512. Women who go through premature menopause should be offered Hormone replacement therapy (HRT). Similarly, women who undergo surgical menopause should be offered HRT, unless contraindicated, depending on the indication of their surgery2,3. Aim: To assess if the patients in our department are counselled regarding HRT after surgical treatment and if HRT was prescribed. Methodology: A retrospective audit in a busy district hospital, examining all the patients who had a hysterectomy. The audit examined if HRT was discussed pre-operatively, prescribed on discharge and if a follow up was arranged. For women with contraindication to HRT, the audit assessed if the reasons were discussed pre-operatively and communicated to the Inclusion criteria: woman having a total or subtotal hysterectomy, with or without bilateral salpingo-ophorectomy (BSO), between April and September 2022. Exclusion criteria: woman having a vaginal hysterectomy. Results: 40 patients in total had hysterectomy; 27 (68%) were under the age of 51. 15 out of 27 patients bad BSO. 9 women were prescribed HRT, but 8 were offered HRT immediately, and 1 of them were offered a follow up. Of women who underwent surgical menopause, 7 were not given any HRT. The HRT choice was diverse, however, the majority was prescribed oral HRT. 40% of women undergoing surgical menopause did not have a discussion about HRT prior to their surgery. In postmenopausal women (n=13; 33%), still two were given HRT for preexisting menopausal symptoms. Discussion: Only 59% of the pre-menopausal patients had oophorectomy, therefore undergoing surgical menopause. Of these, 44% were not given any HRT, and 40% had no discussion about HRT prior to surgery. Interestingly, the majority of these women have no obvious contraindication to HRT. The choice of HRT was diverse, but the majority was commenced on oral HRT. Our unit is still working towards meeting all the NICE guidance standards of offering HRT and information prior to surgery to women planning to undergo surgical menopause. Conclusion: Starting HRT at the onset of menopause has been shown to improve quality of life and reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease and osteoporotic fractures4. Our unit still has scope for improvement to comply with the current NICE guidance. All pre-menopausal women undergoing surgical menopause should have a discussion regarding HRT prior to surgery and be offered it if there are no contraindications. This discussion should be clearly documented in the notes. At the time of this report, some of the patients have not yet had a follow up, which we recognize as a limitation to our audit.

Keywords: hormone replacement therapy, menopause, premature ovarian insufficiency, surgical management

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25207 Statistical Comparison of Ensemble Based Storm Surge Forecasting Models

Authors: Amin Salighehdar, Ziwen Ye, Mingzhe Liu, Ionut Florescu, Alan F. Blumberg

Abstract:

Storm surge is an abnormal water level caused by a storm. Accurate prediction of a storm surge is a challenging problem. Researchers developed various ensemble modeling techniques to combine several individual forecasts to produce an overall presumably better forecast. There exist some simple ensemble modeling techniques in literature. For instance, Model Output Statistics (MOS), and running mean-bias removal are widely used techniques in storm surge prediction domain. However, these methods have some drawbacks. For instance, MOS is based on multiple linear regression and it needs a long period of training data. To overcome the shortcomings of these simple methods, researchers propose some advanced methods. For instance, ENSURF (Ensemble SURge Forecast) is a multi-model application for sea level forecast. This application creates a better forecast of sea level using a combination of several instances of the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). An ensemble dressing method is based on identifying best member forecast and using it for prediction. Our contribution in this paper can be summarized as follows. First, we investigate whether the ensemble models perform better than any single forecast. Therefore, we need to identify the single best forecast. We present a methodology based on a simple Bayesian selection method to select the best single forecast. Second, we present several new and simple ways to construct ensemble models. We use correlation and standard deviation as weights in combining different forecast models. Third, we use these ensembles and compare with several existing models in literature to forecast storm surge level. We then investigate whether developing a complex ensemble model is indeed needed. To achieve this goal, we use a simple average (one of the simplest and widely used ensemble model) as benchmark. Predicting the peak level of Surge during a storm as well as the precise time at which this peak level takes place is crucial, thus we develop a statistical platform to compare the performance of various ensemble methods. This statistical analysis is based on root mean square error of the ensemble forecast during the testing period and on the magnitude and timing of the forecasted peak surge compared to the actual time and peak. In this work, we analyze four hurricanes: hurricanes Irene and Lee in 2011, hurricane Sandy in 2012, and hurricane Joaquin in 2015. Since hurricane Irene developed at the end of August 2011 and hurricane Lee started just after Irene at the beginning of September 2011, in this study we consider them as a single contiguous hurricane event. The data set used for this study is generated by the New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System (NYHOPS). We find that even the simplest possible way of creating an ensemble produces results superior to any single forecast. We also show that the ensemble models we propose generally have better performance compared to the simple average ensemble technique.

Keywords: Bayesian learning, ensemble model, statistical analysis, storm surge prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 307
25206 Industrial Waste Multi-Metal Ion Exchange

Authors: Thomas S. Abia II

Abstract:

Intel Chandler Site has internally developed its first-of-kind (FOK) facility-scale wastewater treatment system to achieve multi-metal ion exchange. The process was carried out using a serial process train of carbon filtration, pH / ORP adjustment, and cationic exchange purification to treat dilute metal wastewater (DMW) discharged from a substrate packaging factory. Spanning a trial period of 10 months, a total of 3,271 samples were collected and statistically analyzed (average baseline + standard deviation) to evaluate the performance of a 95-gpm, multi-reactor continuous copper ion exchange treatment system that was consequently retrofitted for manganese ion exchange to meet environmental regulations. The system is also equipped with an inline acid and hot caustic regeneration system to rejuvenate exhausted IX resins and occasionally remove surface crud. Data generated from lab-scale studies was transferred to system operating modifications following multiple trial-and-error experiments. Despite the DMW treatment system failing to meet internal performance specifications for manganese output, it was observed to remove the cation notwithstanding the prevalence of copper in the waste stream. Accordingly, the average manganese output declined from 6.5 + 5.6 mg¹L⁻¹ at pre-pilot to 1.1 + 1.2 mg¹L⁻¹ post-pilot (83% baseline reduction). This milestone was achieved regardless of the average influent manganese to DMW increasing from 1.0 + 13.7 mg¹L⁻¹ at pre-pilot to 2.1 + 0.2 mg¹L⁻¹ post-pilot (110% baseline uptick). Likewise, the pre-trial and post-trial average influent copper values to DMW were 22.4 + 10.2 mg¹L⁻¹ and 32.1 + 39.1 mg¹L⁻¹, respectively (43% baseline increase). As a result, the pre-trial and post-trial average copper output values were 0.1 + 0.5 mg¹L⁻¹ and 0.4 + 1.2 mg¹L⁻¹, respectively (300% baseline uptick). Conclusively, the operating pH range upstream of treatment (between 3.5 and 5) was shown to be the largest single point of influence for optimizing manganese uptake during multi-metal ion exchange. However, the high variability of the influent copper-to-manganese ratio was observed to adversely impact the system functionality. The journal herein intends to discuss the operating parameters such as pH and oxidation-reduction potential (ORP) that were shown to influence the functional versatility of the ion exchange system significantly. The literature also proposes to discuss limitations of the treatment system such as influent copper-to-manganese ratio variations, operational configuration, waste by-product management, and system recovery requirements to provide a balanced assessment of the multi-metal ion exchange process. The take-away from this literature is intended to analyze the overall feasibility of ion exchange for metals manufacturing facilities that lack the capability to expand hardware due to real estate restrictions, aggressive schedules, or budgetary constraints.

Keywords: copper, industrial wastewater treatment, multi-metal ion exchange, manganese

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25205 Sensitivity, Specificity and Efficiency Real-Time PCR Using SYBR Green Method to Determine Porcine and Bovine DNA Using Specific Primer Cytochrome B Gene

Authors: Ahlam Inayatullah Badrul Munir, M. Husaini A. Rahman, Mohd Sukri Hassan

Abstract:

Real-time PCR is a molecular biology technique that is currently being widely used for halal services to differentiating between porcine and bovine DNA. The useful of technique become very important for student or workers (who works in the laboratory) to learn how the technique could be run smoothly without fail. Same concept with conventional PCR, real-time PCR also needed DNA template, primer, enzyme polymerase, dNTP, and buffer. The difference is in real-time PCR, have additional component namely fluorescent dye. The most common use of fluorescent dye in real-time PCR is SYBR green. The purpose of this study was to find out how sensitive, specific and efficient real-time PCR technique was combined with SYBR green method and specific primers of CYT b. The results showed that real-time PCR technique using SYBR Green, capable of detecting porcine and bovine DNA concentrations up to 0.0001 µl/ng. The level of efficiency for both types of DNA was 91% (90-110). Not only that in specific primer CYT b bovine primer could detect only bovine DNA, and porcine primer could detect only porcine primer. So, from the study could be concluded that real-time PCR technique that was combined with specific primer CYT b and SYBR green method, was sensitive, specific and efficient to detect porcine and bovine DNA.

Keywords: sensitivity, specificity, efficiency, real-time PCR, SYBR green, Cytochrome b, porcine DNA, bovine DNA

Procedia PDF Downloads 314