Search results for: distribution system and optimization

Authors: Jixiang Zhang, Yanhua Wang

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A dynamic of Bertrand duopoly game is analyzed, where players use different production methods and choose their prices with bounded rationality. The equilibriums of the corresponding discrete dynamical systems are investigated. The stability conditions of Nash equilibrium under a local adjustment process are studied. The stability conditions of Nash equilibrium under a local adjustment process are studied. The stability of Nash equilibrium, as some parameters of the model are varied, gives rise to complex dynamics such as cycles of higher order and chaos. On this basis, we discover that an increase of adjustment speed of bounded rational player can make Bertrand market sink into the chaotic state. Finally, the complex dynamics, bifurcations and chaos are displayed by numerical simulation.

Keywords: Bertrand duopoly model, discrete dynamical system, heterogeneous expectations, nash equilibrium

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Authors: Zahra Khalid, Gul Muhammad Khan, Arbab Masood Ahmad

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Cartesian Genetic Programming (CGP) is explored to design an optimal circuit capable of early stage breast cancer detection. CGP is used to evolve simple multiplexer circuits for detection of malignancy in the Fine Needle Aspiration (FNA) samples of breast. The data set used is extracted from Wisconsins Breast Cancer Database (WBCD). A range of experiments were performed, each with different set of network parameters. The best evolved network detected malignancy with an accuracy of 99.14%, which is higher than that produced with most of the contemporary non-linear techniques that are computational expensive than the proposed system. The evolved network comprises of simple multiplexers and can be implemented easily in hardware without any further complications or inaccuracy, being the digital circuit.

Keywords: breast cancer detection, cartesian genetic programming, evolvable hardware, fine needle aspiration

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Authors: Chen Xi, LIU Xuebin, Kuan Sinman, LI Haofeng, Huang Hongming, Zeng Chengyu, Lao Xuerui

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Stray animals are on the rise in mainland China's cities. There are legal reasons for this, namely the lack of protection for domestic pets in mainland China, where only wildlife protection laws exist. At a social level, the ease with which families adopt pets and the lack of a social view of animal nature have led to the frequent abandonment and loss of stray animals. If left unmanaged, conflicts between humans and stray animals can also increase. This project provides an inexpensive and widely applicable management tool for urban management by collecting videos and pictures of stray animals captured by surveillance or transmitted by humans and using artificial intelligence technology (mainly using Yolov5 recognition technology) and recording and managing them in a database.

Keywords: urban planning, urban governance, artificial intelligence, convolutional neural network, machine vision

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Authors: Marcho Setiawan Handok, Samuel S. Lemma, Abdoulaye Fofana, Naseef Mansoor

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This paper is proposing a method to predict the outcome of the National Football League match with data from 2019 to 2022 and compare it with other popular models. The model uses open-source statistical data of each team, such as passing yards, rushing yards, fumbles lost, and scoring. Each statistical data has offensive and defensive. For instance, a data set of anticipated values for a specific matchup is created by comparing the offensive passing yards obtained by one team to the defensive passing yards given by the opposition. We evaluated the model’s performance by contrasting its result with those of established prediction algorithms. This research is using a neural network to predict the score of a National Football League match and then predict the winner of the game.

Keywords: game prediction, NFL, football, artificial neural network

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Authors: Temesgen Takele Kasa

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The main aim of this paper is to suggest one active slip based continuum dislocation approach to matrix dominated MMC plasticity analysis. The approach centered the free energy principles through the continuum behavior of dislocations combined with small strain continuum kinematics. The analytical derivation of this method includes the formulation of one active slip system, the thermodynamic approach of dislocations, determination of free energy, and evolution of dislocations. In addition zero and non-zero energy dissipation analysis of dislocation evolution is also formulated by using varational energy minimization method. In general, this work shows its capability to analyze the plasticity of matrix dominated MMC with inclusions. The proposed method is also found to be capable of handling plasticity of MMC.

Keywords: active slip, continuum dislocation, distortion, dominated, energy dissipation, matrix dominated, plasticity

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Authors: Shreya Saxena

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Background: Choledocholithiasis is a common complication of gallstone disease. Risk scoring systems exist to guide the need for further imaging or endoscopy in managing choledocholithiasis. We completed an audit to review the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) scoring system for prediction and management of choledocholithiasis against the current practice at a tertiary hospital to assess its utility in resource optimisation. We have now conducted a cost focused sub-analysis on patients categorized high-risk for choledocholithiasis according to the guidelines to determine any associated cost benefits. Method: Data collection from our prior audit was used to retrospectively identify thirteen patients considered high-risk for choledocholithiasis. Their ongoing management was mapped against the guidelines. Individual costs for the key investigations were obtained from our hospital financial data. Total cost for the different management pathways identified in clinical practice were calculated and compared against predicted costs associated with recommendations in the guidelines. We excluded the cost of laparoscopic cholecystectomy and considered a set figure for per day hospital admission related expenses. Results: Based on our previous audit data, we identified a77% positive predictive value for the ASGE risk stratification tool to determine patients at high-risk of choledocholithiasis. 47% (6/13) had an magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP) prior to endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP), whilst 53% (7/13) went straight for ERCP. The average length of stay in the hospital was 7 days, with an additional day and cost of £328.00 (£117 for ERCP) for patients awaiting an MRCP prior to ERCP. Per day hospital admission was valued at £838.69. When calculating total cost, we assumed all patients had admission bloods and ultrasound done as the gold standard. In doing an MRCP prior to ERCP, there was a 130% increase in cost incurred (£580.04 vs £252.04) per patient. When also considering hospital admission and the average length of stay, it was an additional £1166.69 per patient. We then calculated the exact costs incurred by the department, over a three-month period, for all patients, for key investigations or procedures done in the management of choledocholithiasis. This was compared to an estimate cost derived from the recommended pathways in the ASGE guidelines. Overall, 81% (£2048.45) saving was associated with following the guidelines compared to clinical practice. Conclusion: MRCP is the most expensive test associated with the diagnosis and management of choledocholithiasis. The ASGE guidelines recommend endoscopy without an MRCP in patients stratified as high-risk for choledocholithiasis. Our audit that focused on assessing the utility of the ASGE risk scoring system showed it to be relatively reliable for identifying high-risk patients. Our cost analysis has shown significant cost savings per patient and when considering the average length of stay associated with direct endoscopy rather than an additional MRCP. Part of this is also because of an increased average length of stay associated with waiting for an MRCP. The above data supports the ASGE guidelines for the management of high-risk for choledocholithiasis patients from a cost perspective. The only caveat is our small data set that may impact the validity of our average length of hospital stay figures and hence total cost calculations.

Keywords: cost-analysis, choledocholithiasis, risk stratification tool, general surgery

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Authors: Safaa M. Hassan; Safwat S. Gabr, Mohamed F. Sadek

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This study is proposed for the lithological and iron oxides detection in the old mine areas of El-Bahariya Depression, Western Desert, using ASTER and Landsat-8 remote sensing data. Four old iron ore occurrences, namely; El-Gedida, El-Haraa, Ghurabi, and Nasir mine areas found in the El-Bahariya area. This study aims to find new high potential areas for iron mineralization around El-Baharyia depression. Image processing methods such as principle component analysis (PCA) and band ratios (b4/b5, b5/b6, b6/b7, and 4/2, 6/7, band 6) images were used for lithological identification/mapping that includes the iron content in the investigated area. ASTER and Landsat-8 visible and short-wave infrared data found to help mapping the ferruginous sandstones, iron oxides as well as the clay minerals in and around the old mines area of El-Bahariya depression. Landsat-8 band ratio and the principle component of this study showed well distribution of the lithological units, especially ferruginous sandstones and iron zones (hematite and limonite) along with detection of probable high potential areas for iron mineralization which can be used in the future and proved the ability of Landsat-8 and ASTER data in mapping these features. Minimum Noise Fraction (MNF), Mixture Tuned Matched Filtering (MTMF), pixel purity index methods as well as Spectral Ange Mapper classifier algorithm have been successfully discriminated the hematite and limonite content within the iron zones in the study area. Various ASTER image spectra and ASD field spectra of hematite and limonite and the surrounding rocks are compared and found to be consistent in terms of the presence of absorption features at range from 1.95 to 2.3 μm for hematite and limonite. Pixel purity index algorithm and two sub-pixel spectral methods, namely Mixture Tuned Matched Filtering (MTMF) and matched filtering (MF) methods, are applied to ASTER bands to delineate iron oxides (hematite and limonite) rich zones within the rock units. The results are validated in the field by comparing image spectra of spectrally anomalous zone with the USGS resampled laboratory spectra of hematite and limonite samples using ASD measurements. A number of iron oxides rich zones in addition to the main surface exposures of the El-Gadidah Mine, are confirmed in the field. The proposed method is a successful application of spectral mapping of iron oxides deposits in the exposed rock units (i.e., ferruginous sandstone) and present approach of both ASTER and ASD hyperspectral data processing can be used to delineate iron-rich zones occurring within similar geological provinces in any parts of the world.

Keywords: Landsat-8, ASTER, lithological mapping, iron exploration, western desert

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Authors: Mohammad Moeini, Mehrdad Ghyabi, Kiarash Mohtasham Dolatshahi

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This paper investigates seismic soil-pile interaction using the Beam on Nonlinear Winkler Foundation (BNWF) approach. Three soil types are considered to cover all the possible responses, as well as nonlinear site response analysis using finite element method in OpenSees platform. Excitations at each elevation that are output of the site response analysis are used as the input excitation to the soil pile system implementing multi-support excitation method. Spectral intensities of acceleration show that the extent of the response in sand is more severe than that of clay, in addition, increasing the PGA of ground strong motion will affect the sandy soil more, in comparison with clayey medium, which is an indicator of the sensitivity of soil-pile systems in sandy soil.

Keywords: BNWF method, multi-support excitation, nonlinear site response analysis, seismic soil-pile interaction

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Authors: Massimo Ferrari, Maria Sole Pagliari

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Pollution is a classic example of economic externality: agents who produce it do not face direct costs from emissions. Therefore, there are no direct economic incentives for reducing pollution. One way to address this market failure would be directly taxing emissions. However, because emissions are global, governments might as well find it optimal to wait let foreign countries to tax emissions so that they can enjoy the benefits of lower pollution without facing its direct costs. In this paper, we first document the empirical relation between pollution and economic output with static and dynamic regression methods. We show that there is a negative relation between aggregate output and the stock of pollution (measured as the stock of CO₂ emissions). This relationship is also highly non-linear, increasing at an exponential rate. In the second part of the paper, we develop and estimate a two-country, two-sector model for the US and the euro area. With this model, we aim at analyzing how the public sector should respond to higher emissions and what are the direct costs that these policies might have. In the model, there are two types of firms, brown firms (which produce a polluting technology) and green firms. Brown firms also produce an externality, CO₂ emissions, which has detrimental effects on aggregate output. As brown firms do not face direct costs from polluting, they do not have incentives to reduce emissions. Notably, emissions in our model are global: the stock of CO₂ in the economy affects all countries, independently from where it is produced. This simplified economy captures the main trade-off between emissions and production, generating a classic market failure. According to our results, the current level of emission reduces output by between 0.4 and 0.75%. Notably, these estimates lay in the upper bound of the distribution of those delivered by studies in the early 2000s. To address market failure, governments should step in introducing taxes on emissions. With the tax, brown firms pay a cost for polluting hence facing the incentive to move to green technologies. Governments, however, might also adopt a beggar-thy-neighbour strategy. Reducing emissions is costly, as moves production away from the 'optimal' production mix of brown and green technology. Because emissions are global, a government could just wait for the other country to tackle climate change, ripping the benefits without facing any costs. We study how this strategic game unfolds and show three important results: first, cooperation is first-best optimal from a global prospective; second, countries face incentives to deviate from the cooperating equilibria; third, tariffs on imported brown goods (the only retaliation policy in case of deviation from the cooperation equilibrium) are ineffective because the exchange rate would move to compensate. We finally study monetary policy under when costs for climate change rise and show that the monetary authority should react stronger to deviations of inflation from its target.

Keywords: climate change, general equilibrium, optimal taxation, monetary policy

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Authors: Dejan Tanikić, Jelena Đoković, Saša Kalinović, Miodrag Manić, Saša Ranđelović

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This paper deals with measuring and modelling of the quality of the machined surface of the metal machining process. The average surface roughness (R_a) which represents the quality of the machined part was measured during the dry turning of the AISI 4140 steel. A large number of factors with the unknown relations among them influences this parameter, and that is why mathematical modelling is extremely complicated. Different values of cutting speed, feed rate, depth of cut (cutting regime) and workpiece hardness causes different surface roughness values. Modelling with soft computing techniques may be very useful in such cases. This paper presents the usage of the fuzzy logic-based system for determining metal machining process parameter in order to find the proper values of cutting regimes.

Keywords: fuzzy logic, metal machining, process modeling, surface roughness

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Authors: Mehdi Ghommem, Daniel Garcia, Nathan Collier, Victor Calo

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We develop a fast, user-friendly implementation of a potential flow solver based on the unsteady vortex lattice method (UVLM). The computational framework uses the Python programming language which has easy integration with the scripts requiring computationally-expensive operations written in Fortran. The mixed-language approach enables high performance in terms of solution time and high flexibility in terms of easiness of code adaptation to different system configurations and applications. This computational tool is intended to predict the unsteady aerodynamic behavior of multiple moving bodies (e.g., flapping wings, rotating blades, suspension bridges...) subject to an incoming air. We simulate different aerodynamic problems to validate and illustrate the usefulness and effectiveness of the developed computational tool.

Keywords: unsteady aerodynamics, numerical simulations, mixed-language approach, potential flow

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Authors: Keyvanl Yahya

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This paper aims to find a algorithmic structure that affords to predict and explain economic choice behaviour particularly under uncertainty (random policies) by manipulating the prevalent Actor-Critic learning method that complies with the requirements we have been entrusted ever since the field of neuroeconomics dawned on us. Whilst skimming some basics of neuroeconomics that might be relevant to our discussion, we will try to outline some of the important works which have so far been done to simulate choice making processes. Concerning neurological findings that suggest the existence of two specific functions that are executed through Basal Ganglia all the way down to sub-cortical areas, namely 'rewards' and 'beliefs', we will offer a modified version of actor/critic algorithm to shed a light on the relation between these functions and most importantly resolve what is referred to as a challenge for actor-critic algorithms, that is lack of inheritance or hierarchy which avoids the system being evolved in continuous time tasks whence the convergence might not emerge.

Keywords: neuroeconomics, choice behaviour, decision making, reinforcement learning, actor-critic algorithm

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Authors: Jingjing Li, Shifu Wang

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After the irreversible consequences of the traditional renewal mode of ‘function first and then beautification’, such as the constructive destruction, social differentiation, and cultural, ecological imbalance, the renewal of the historical urban area began to pay attention to the excavation of cultural connotation, and entered a new stage from the pursuit of ‘quantity’ growth to the promotion of ‘quality’, expecting to rejuvenate the old city through the intervention of public art. This paper interprets the cases at home and abroad, summarizes the different forms of expression and application strategies of public art in the renewal of historical urban areas, and combs the limitations of the existing practice in Guangzhou through observation. Finally, it puts forward suggestions from three aspects of the system, implementation strategy, and implementation path, respectively, and explores the path of simultaneous rejuvenation of material space and cultural space in historical urban areas under the intervention of public art.

Keywords: public art, historic city, public space, renewal activation

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Authors: Dinara Ikramova, Karin A. Hing, Simon C. F. Rawlinson

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Silicate-substituted hydroxyapatite (SiHA) has been shown to enhance bone regeneration in vivo compared with phase pure stoichiometric hydroxyapatite. Evidence suggests that substrate chemistry dependent formation of a permissive protein layer on the surface of synthetic bone graft substitute materials is key for bioactivity and cell attachment. However, little information is available on whether the substrate chemistry may affect cell migration and recruitment. The aim of this study is to investigate whether or not human Mesenchymal Stem Cells (hMSCs) exhibit a chemotactic response to SiHA porous granules and if it can be linked to either the ion exchange or protein sequestering and enrichment on the surface of the material. 150mg of SiHA granules with 80% total porosity and 20% strut porosity were incubated in 1ml of either Serum Free Media (SFM) or 10% Serum Containing Media (SCM) under static cell culture conditions (37°C, 5% CO2) in absence of cells. Protein sequestering and exchange of calcium, phosphate and silicate ions were analysed at 0.5, 1, 2, 4, 8, 16 and 24 hours with n=12 per time point. Migration of hMSCs in the presence of 150mg of SiHA granules was assessed over 24 hours using a modified transwell migration system in either SFM or SCM (n=6) with 30% serum containing media acting as a positive control. At 24 hours protein sequestering and ionic exchange were analysed, and the number of cells was quantified using a high throughput confocal microscope (IN Cell Analyser 6000). In acellular condition, both calcium and phosphate ion concentrations in media showed a decrease at 24 hours which was greater in SFM than in SCM. This suggests possible formation and precipitation of a bone like apatite on the surface of SiHA. Reduction in this activity observed in SCM indicates that the presence of serum proteins is interfering with the ion exchange at the material and media interface. Adsorbed protein levels showed fluctuation over time followed by sharp decrease at 24 hours, suggesting a possible protein rearrangement on the surface of the material. The ion analysis performed on SFM and SCM after 24-hour incubation with cells in the presence of granules showed a greater reduction in phosphate concentration in both SFM and SCM compared to phosphate levels in acellular condition. Silicate concentration in SCM increased from 1.6mM (absence of cells) to 5.1mM (presence of cells). This indicates that the cells are promoting the uptake of phosphate and release of silicate ions. No significant change was seen in levels of adsorbed proteins in the presence and absence of cells. Further analysis is required to determine whether the species of these proteins change over time. The analysis of cell migration after 24-hour incubation showed more cells migrating towards the granules, 12.7% in SFM and 8.3% in SCM, than in positive control, 4.5% in SFM and 3.6% in SCM respectively. These results suggest that SiHA has a chemotactic activity independent of serum proteins. A property which has not previously been demonstrated for a synthetic bone graft material.

Keywords: cell migration, hMSCs, SiHA, transwell migration system

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Authors: Md. Jahoor Alam

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Recent studies suggest that Glucose controls several lifesaving pathways. Glucose molecule is reported to be responsible for the production of ROS (reactive oxygen species). In the present work, a p53-MDM2-Glucose model is developed in order to study spatiotemporal properties of the p53 pathway. The systematic model is mathematically described. The model is numerically simulated using high computational facility. It is observed that the variation in glucose concentration level triggers the system at different states, namely, oscillation death (stabilized), sustain and damped oscillations which correspond to various cellular states. The transition of these states induced by glucose is phase transition-like behaviour. Further, the amplitude of p53 dynamics with the variation of glucose concentration level follows power law behaviour, As(k) ~ kϒ, where, ϒ is a constant. Further Stochastic approach is needed for understanding of realistic behaviour of the model. The present model predicts the variation of p53 states under the influence of glucose molecule which is also supported by experimental facts reported by various research articles.

Keywords: oscillation, temporal behavior, p53, glucose

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Authors: Olasunkanmi Olapeju

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A large chunk of global population are not yet connected to water borne faecal management systems that rely on flush mechanisms and sewers networks that are linked with a central treatment plant. Only about 10% of sub-Saharan African countries are connected to central sewage systems. In Nigeria, majority of the population do not only depend on on-plot sanitation systems, a huge chunk do not also have access to safe and improved toilets. Apart from the organizational challenges and technical capacity, the other major factors that account for why faecal waste management is yet unimproved in developing countries are faulty planning frameworks that fail to maintain balance between urbanization dynamics and infrastructures, and misconceptions about what modern sanitation is all about. In most cases, the quest to implement developmental patterns that integrate modern sewers based sanitation systems have huge financial and political costs. Faecal waste management in poor countries largely lacks the needed political attention and budgetary prioritization. Yet, the on-plot sanitation systems being mainly relied upon the need to be managed in a manner that is sustainable and healthy, pending when development would embrace a more sustainable off-site central sewage system. This study is aimed at investigating existing strategies for managing on-plot sanitation systems’ faecal waste in Ogun state, Nigeria, with the aim of recommending sustainable sanitation management systems. The study adopted the convergent parallel variant of the mixed-mode technique, which involves the adoption of both quantitative and qualitative method of data collection. Adopting a four-level multi-stage approach, which is inclusive of all political divisions in the study area, a total of 330 questionnaires were respectively administered in the study area. Moreover, the qualitative data adopted the purposive approach in scoping down to 33 key informants. SPSS software (Version 22.0) was employed for descriptively analysis. The study shows that about 52% of households adopt the non-recovery management (NRM) means of burying their latrines with sand sludge shrinkage with chemicals such as carbides. The dominance of the non-recovery management means seriously constrains the quest for faecal resource recovery. Essentially, the management techniques adopted by households depend largely on the technology of their sanitary containments, emptying means available, the ability of households to pay for the cost of emptying, and the social acceptability of the reusability of faecal waste, which determines faecal resource recoverability. The study suggests that there is a need for municipal authorities in the study area to urgently intervene in the sanitation sector and consider it a key element of the planning process. There is a need for a comprehensive plan that would ensure a seamless transition to the adoption of a modern sanitation management system.

Keywords: faecal, management, planning, waste, sanitation, sustainability

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Authors: Mehmet Bozca

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Singular value decomposition based optimisation of geometric design parameters of a 5-speed gearbox is studied. During the optimisation, a four-degree-of freedom torsional vibration model of the pinion gear-wheel gear system is obtained and the minimum singular value of the transfer matrix is considered as the objective functions. The computational cost of the associated singular value problems is quite low for the objective function, because it is only necessary to compute the largest and smallest singular values (µmax and µmin) that can be achieved by using selective eigenvalue solvers; the other singular values are not needed. The design parameters are optimised under several constraints that include bending stress, contact stress and constant distance between gear centres. Thus, by optimising the geometric parameters of the gearbox such as, the module, number of teeth and face width it is possible to obtain a light-weight-gearbox structure. It is concluded that the all optimised geometric design parameters also satisfy all constraints.

Keywords: Singular value, optimisation, gearbox, torsional vibration

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Authors: Yea-Chyi Lin, Shinn-Dar Wu, Chien-Ping Chung

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Tea is not only part of the daily lives of the Chinese people, but also represents an essence of their culture. A manufactured tea is prepared with other complicated steps for self-cultivation. Tea drinking promotes friendship and is etiquette in Chinese ceremony. Tea was discovered in China and introduced worldwide. Tea is generally used as herbal medicine. Paowan of tea can be used as plant composts and deodorant as well as for moisture proof-package. Tea prepared via carbon material technology resulted in the increase of its value. Carbon material technology uses graphite. With the battery anode material, tea can also become a new carbon material element. It has a fiber carbon structure that can retain the advantage of tea ontology. Therefore, this study provides a new preparation method through special sintering technology equipment with a gas counter-current system of 300°C to 400°C and 400°C to 900°C. The recovery of carbonization was up to 80% or more. This study addresses tea recycling technology and shows charred sintering method and loss from solving grinder to obtain a good fiber carbon structure.

Keywords: recycling technology, tea, carbonization, sintering technology, manufacturing

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Authors: Bella Llego

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This study aims to investigate the relationships between human resource management and entrepreneurship in the view of owner-managers and employees, and among employees with in the SME in Thailand. The research method used a qualitative method to confirm the phenomenology interest with top management position which women are regarding their career path by using purposive sampling method. The results showed that human resources management has positive relate with the corporate entrepreneurship are including the recruitment process, training worker, professional career development and reward system impact to entrepreneur’s knowledge and innovation of corporate entrepreneurship in respectively to bring a very reliable way. Then, the key informant suggested that women’s career experiences predisposed them to find an alternative route for entrepreneurship, despite having achieved top management. The understanding factors that successfully contribute to the development of women entrepreneurs from career development perspective are critical endeavours for any type of organization as well.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, firm performance, human resource management, work efficiency

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Authors: Kostas Kouvaris, Anastasia Eleftheriou, Georgios A. Sarantitis, Apostolos Chondronasios

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To achieve the objective of almost zero carbon energy solutions by 2050, the EU needs to accelerate the development of integrated, highly efficient and environmentally friendly solutions. In this direction, district heating and cooling (DHC) emerges as a viable and more efficient alternative to conventional, decentralized heating and cooling systems, enabling a combination of more efficient renewable and competitive energy supplies. In this paper, we develop a forecasting tool for near real-time local weather and thermal energy demand predictions for an entire DHC network. In this fashion, we are able to extend the functionality and to improve the energy efficiency of the DHC network by predicting and adjusting the heat load that is distributed from the heat generation plant to the connected buildings by the heat pipe network. Two case-studies are considered; one for Vransko, Slovenia and one for Montpellier, France. The data consists of i) local weather data, such as humidity, temperature, and precipitation, ii) weather forecast data, such as the outdoor temperature and iii) DHC operational parameters, such as the mass flow rate, supply and return temperature. The external temperature is found to be the most important energy-related variable for space conditioning, and thus it is used as an external parameter for the energy demand models. For the development of the forecasting tool, we use state-of-the-art deep neural networks and more specifically, recurrent networks with long-short-term memory cells, which are able to capture complex non-linear relations among temporal variables. Firstly, we develop models to forecast outdoor temperatures for the next 24 hours using local weather data for each case-study. Subsequently, we develop models to forecast thermal demand for the same period, taking under consideration past energy demand values as well as the predicted temperature values from the weather forecasting models. The contributions to the scientific and industrial community are three-fold, and the empirical results are highly encouraging. First, we are able to predict future thermal demand levels for the two locations under consideration with minimal errors. Second, we examine the impact of the outdoor temperature on the predictive ability of the models and how the accuracy of the energy demand forecasts decreases with the forecast horizon. Third, we extend the relevant literature with a new dataset of thermal demand and examine the performance and applicability of machine learning techniques to solve real-world problems. Overall, the solution proposed in this paper is in accordance with EU targets, providing an automated smart energy management system, decreasing human errors and reducing excessive energy production.

Keywords: machine learning, LSTMs, district heating and cooling system, thermal demand

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Authors: Katarina Ott, Velibor Mačkić, Mihaela Bronić, Branko Stanić

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The determinants of national budget transparency have been widely discussed in the literature, while research on determinants of local budget transparency are scarce and empirically inconclusive, particularly in the new, fiscally centralised, EU member states. To fill the gap, we combine two strands of the literature: that concerned with public administration and public finance, shedding light on the economic and financial determinants of local budget transparency, and that on the political economy of transparency (principal agent theory), covering the relationships among politicians and between politicians and voters. Our main hypothesis states that variables describing residents’ capacity have a greater impact on local budget transparency than variables indicating the institutional capacity of local government units (LGUs). Additional subhypotheses test the impact of each variable analysed on local budget transparency. We address the determinants of local budget transparency in Croatia, measured by the number of key local budget documents published on the LGUs’ websites. By using a data set of 128 cities and 428 municipalities over the 2015-2017 period and by applying panel data analysis based on Poisson and negative binomial distribution, we test our main hypothesis and sub-hypotheses empirically. We measure different characteristics of institutional and residents’ capacity for each LGU. Age, education and ideology of the mayor/municipality head, political competition indicators, number of employees, current budget revenues and direct debt per capita have been used as a measure of the institutional capacity of LGU. Residents’ capacity in each LGU has been measured through the numbers of citizens and their average age as well as by average income per capita. The most important determinant of local budget transparency is average residents' income per capita at both city and municipality level. The results are in line with most previous research results in fiscally decentralised countries. In the context of a fiscally centralised country with numerous small LGUs, most of whom have low administrative and fiscal capacity, this has a theoretical rationale in the legitimacy and principal-agent theory (opportunistic motives of the incumbent). The result is robust and significant, but because of the various other results that change between city and municipality levels (e.g. ideology and political competition), there is a need for further research (both on identifying other determinates and/or methods of analysis). Since in Croatia the fiscal capacity of a LGU depends heavily on the income of its residents, units with higher per capita incomes in many cases have also higher budget revenues allowing them to engage more employees and resources. In addition, residents’ incomes might be also positively associated with local budget transparency because of higher citizen demand for such transparency. Residents with higher incomes expect more public services and have more access to and experience in using the Internet, and will thus typically demand more budget information on the LGUs’ websites.

Keywords: budget transparency, count data, Croatia, local government, political economy

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Authors: Steven Sam, Ximena Schmidt, Hugh Dickinson, Jens Jensen

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The goal of this study is to explore the potential of data science and citizen science approaches to develop an interactive, digital, open infrastructure that pulls together African indigenous agriculture and food systems data from multiple sources, making it accessible and reusable for policy, research and practice in modern food production efforts. The World Bank has recognised that African Indigenous Knowledge (AIK) is innovative and unique among local and subsistent smallholder farmers, and it is central to sustainable food production and enhancing biodiversity and natural resources in many poor, rural societies. AIK refers to tacit knowledge held in different languages, cultures and skills passed down from generation to generation by word of mouth. AIK is a key driver of food production, preservation, and consumption for more than 80% of citizens in Africa, and can therefore assist modern efforts of reducing food insecurity and hunger. However, the documentation and dissemination of AIK remain a big challenge confronting librarians and other information professionals in Africa, and there is a risk of losing AIK owing to urban migration, modernisation, land grabbing, and the emergence of relatively small-scale commercial farming businesses. There is also a clear disconnect between the AIK and scientific knowledge and modern efforts for sustainable food production. The study combines data science and citizen science approaches through active community participation to generate and share AIK for facilitating learning and promoting knowledge that is relevant for policy intervention and sustainable food production through a curated digital platform based on FAIR principles. The study adopts key informant interviews along with participatory photo and video elicitation approach, where farmers are given digital devices (mobile phones) to record and document their every practice involving agriculture, food production, processing, and consumption by traditional means. Data collected are analysed using the UK Science and Technology Facilities Council’s proven methodology of citizen science (Zooniverse) and data science. Outcomes are presented in participatory stakeholder workshops, where the researchers outline plans for creating the platform and developing the knowledge sharing standard framework and copyrights agreement. Overall, the study shows that learning from AIK, by investigating what local communities know and have, can improve understanding of food production and consumption, in particular in times of stress or shocks affecting the food systems and communities. Thus, the platform can be useful for local populations, research, and policy-makers, and it could lead to transformative innovation in the food system, creating a fundamental shift in the way the North supports sustainable, modern food production efforts in Africa.

Keywords: Africa indigenous agriculture knowledge, citizen science, data science, sustainable food production, traditional food system

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Authors: Laura Kocsor, Laszlo Peter, Laszlo Kovacs, Zsolt Kis

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The aim of our research is to prepare rare-earth-doped lithium niobate (LiNbO3) nanocrystals, having only a few dopant ions in the focal point of an exciting laser beam. These samples will be used to achieve individual addressing of the dopant ions by light beams in a confocal microscope setup. One method for the preparation of nanocrystalline materials is to reduce the particle size by mechanical grinding. High-energy ball-milling was used in several works to produce nano lithium niobate. Previously, it was reported that dry high-energy ball-milling of lithium niobate in a shaker mill results in the partial reduction of the material, which leads to a balanced formation of bipolarons and polarons yielding gray color together with oxygen release and Li2O segregation on the open surfaces. In the present work we focus on preparing LiNbO3 nanocrystals by high-energy ball-milling using a Fritsch Pulverisette 7 planetary mill. Every ball-milling process was carried out in zirconia vial with zirconia balls of different sizes (from 3 mm to 0.1 mm), wet grinding with water, and the grinding time being less than an hour. Gradually decreasing the ball size to 0.1 mm, an average particle size of about 10 nm could be obtained determined by dynamic light scattering and verified by scanning electron microscopy. High-energy ball-milling resulted in sample darkening evidenced by optical absorption spectroscopy measurements indicating that the material underwent partial reduction. The unwanted lithium oxide loss decreases the Li/Nb ratio in the crystal, strongly influencing the spectroscopic properties of lithium niobate. Zirconia contamination was found in ground samples proved by energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy measurements; however, it cannot be explained based on the hardness properties of the materials involved in the ball-milling process. It can be understood taking into account the presence of lithium hydroxide formed the segregated lithium oxide and water during the ball-milling process, through chemically induced abrasion. The quantity of the segregated Li2O was measured by coulometric titration. During the wet milling process in the planetary mill, it was found that the lithium oxide loss increases linearly in the early phase of the milling process, then a saturation of the Li2O loss can be seen. This change goes along with the disappearance of the relatively large particles until a relatively narrow size distribution is achieved in accord with the dynamic light scattering measurements. With the 3 mm ball size and 1100 rpm rotation rate, the mean particle size achieved is 100 nm, and the total Li2O loss is about 1.2 wt.% of the original LiNbO3. Further investigations have been done to minimize the Li2O segregation during the ball-milling process. Since the Li2O loss was observed to increase with the growing total surface of the particles, the influence of ball-milling parameters on its quantity has also been studied.

Keywords: high-energy ball-milling, lithium niobate, mechanochemical reaction, nanocrystals

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Authors: Milind Anurag

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This study investigates cutting-edge truss design improvements, which are specifically adapted to satisfy the structural demands and difficulties associated with high-performance facades and roofs in modern architectural environments. With a growing emphasis on sustainability, energy efficiency, and eye-catching architectural aesthetics, the structural components that support these characteristics play an important part in attaining the right balance of form and function. The paper seeks to contribute to the evolution of truss design methods by combining data from these investigations, giving significant insights for architects, engineers, and researchers interested in the creation of high-performance building envelopes. The findings of this study are meant to inform future design standards and practices, promoting the development of structures that seamlessly integrate architectural innovation with structural robustness and environmental responsibility.

Keywords: truss design, high-performance, facades, finite element analysis, structural efficiency

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Authors: Gabriela T. Nakashima, Elias R. D. Padilla, Joao L. Barros, Gabriela B. Belini, Hiroyuki Yamamoto, Fabio M. Yamaji

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Biochar can be an alternative to use sugarcane trash. Biochar is a solid material obtained from pyrolysis, that is a biomass thermal degradation with low or no O₂ concentration. Pyrolysis transforms the carbon that is commonly found in other organic structures into a carbon with more stability that can resist microbial decomposition. Biochar has a versatility of uses such as soil fertility, carbon sequestration, energy generation, ecological restoration, and soil remediation. Biochar has a great ability to retain water and nutrients in the soil so that this material can improve the efficiency of irrigation and fertilization. The aim of this study was to characterize biochar produced from sugarcane trash in three different pyrolysis temperatures and determine the lowest temperature with the high yield and carbon content. Physical characterization of this biochar was performed to help the evaluation for the best production conditions. Sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum) trash was collected at Corredeira Farm, located in Ibaté, São Paulo State, Brazil. The farm has 800 hectares of planted area with an average yield of 87 t·ha⁻¹. The sugarcane varieties planted on the farm are: RB 855453, RB 867515, RB 855536, SP 803280, SP 813250. Sugarcane trash was dried and crushed into 50 mm pieces. Crucibles and lids were used to settle the sugarcane trash samples. The higher amount of sugarcane trash was added to the crucible to avoid the O₂ concentration. Biochar production was performed in three different pyrolysis temperatures (200°C, 325°C, 450°C) in 2 hours residence time in the muffle furnace. Gravimetric yield of biochar was obtained. Proximate analysis of biochar was done using ASTM E-872 and ABNT NBR 8112. Volatile matter and ash content were calculated by direct weight loss and fixed carbon content calculated by difference. Porosity measurement was evaluated using an automatic gas adsorption device, Autosorb-1, with CO₂ described by Nakatani. Approximately 0.5 g of biochar in 2 mm particle sizes were used for each measurement. Vacuum outgassing was performed as a pre-treatment in different conditions for each biochar temperature. The pore size distribution of micropores was determined using Horváth-Kawazoe method. Biochar presented different colors for each treatment. Biochar - 200°C presented a higher number of pieces with 10mm or more and did not present the dark black color like other treatments after 2 h residence time in muffle furnace. Also, this treatment had the higher content of volatiles and the lower amount of fixed carbon. In porosity analysis, while the temperature treatments increase, the amount of pores also increase. The increase in temperature resulted in a biochar with a better quality. The pores in biochar can help in the soil aeration, adsorption, water retention. Acknowledgment: This study was financed in part by the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior – Brazil – PROAP-CAPES, PDSE and CAPES - Finance Code 001.

Keywords: proximate analysis, pyrolysis, soil amendment, sugarcane straw

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Authors: Hannes Koester

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Driven by difficult market conditions and increasing regulations, many banks are making the strategic decision to restructure their portfolio by divesting several business segments. Using a unique dataset of 727 portfolio restructuring announcements by 161 international listed banks over the period 1999 to 2015, we investigate the impact of restructuring measurements on the stock performance as well as on the banks’ profitability and risk. Employing the event study methodology, we detect positive stock market reactions on the announcement of restructuring measurements. These positive stock market reactions indicate that shareholders reward banks’ specialization activities. However, the results of the system GMM regressions show a negative relation between restructuring measurements and banks’ return on assets and a positive relation towards the individual and systemic risk of banks. These empirical results indicate that there is no guarantee that portfolio restructurings will result in a more profitable and less risky institution.

Keywords: bank performance, bank risk, divestiture, restructuring, systemic risk

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Authors: Abdoulnabi Tavangari, Nasim Salehzadeh

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We presume a cylindrical medium that is under a uniform loading and there is a penny shaped crack located in the center of cylinder. In the crack growth analysis, the Stress Intensity Factor (SIF) is a fundamental prerequisite. In the present study, according to the RITZ method and by considering a cylindrical coordinate system as the main coordinate and a local polar coordinate, the mode-I SIF of threedimensional penny-shaped crack is obtained. In this method the unknown coefficients will be obtained with minimizing the potential energy that is including the strain energy and the external force work. By using the hook's law, stress fields will be obtained and then by using the Irvine equations, the amount of SIF will be obtained near the edge of the crack. This question has been solved for extreme medium in the Tada handbook and the result of the present research has been compared with that.

Keywords: three-dimensional cracks, penny-shaped crack, stress intensity factor, fracture mechanics, Ritz method

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Authors: Mojtaba Eshraghi Arani

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Ship financing is the vital element in the development of shipping industry because while the ship constitutes the owners’ main asset, she is considered a reliable security in the financiers’ viewpoint as well. However, it is most probable that a financier who has accepted a ship as security will face many creditors who are privileged and rank before him for collecting, out of the ship, the money that they are owed. In fact, according to the current rule of maritime law, which was established by “Convention Internationale pour l’Unification de Certaines Règles Relatives aux Privilèges et Hypothèques Maritimes, Brussels, 10 April 1926”, the mortgages, hypotheques, and other charges on vessels rank after several secured claims referred to as “maritime liens”. Such maritime liens are an exhaustive list of claims including but not limited to “expenses incurred in the common interest of the creditors to preserve the vessel or to procure its sale and the distribution of the proceeds of sale”, “tonnage dues, light or harbour dues, and other public taxes and charges of the same character”, “claims arising out of the contract of engagement of the master, crew and other persons hired on board”, “remuneration for assistance and salvage”, “the contribution of the vessel in general average”, “indemnities for collision or other damage caused to works forming part of harbours, docks, etc,” “indemnities for personal injury to passengers or crew or for loss of or damage to cargo”, “claims resulting form contracts entered into or acts done by the master”. The same rule survived with only some minor change in the categories of maritime liens in the substitute conventions 1967 and 1993. The status que in maritime law have always been considered as a major obstacle to the development of shipping market and has inevitably led to increase in the interest rates and other related costs of ship financing. It seems that the national and international policy makers have yet to change their mind being worried about the deviation from the old marine traditions. However, it is crystal clear that the continuation of status que will harm, to a great extent, the shipowners and, consequently, the international merchants as a whole. It is argued in this article that the raison d'être for many categories of maritime liens cease to exist anymore, in view of which, the international community has to recognize only a minimum category of maritime liens which are created in the common interests of all creditors; to this effect, only two category of “compensation due for the salvage of ship” and “extraordinary expenses indispensable for the preservation of the ship” can be declared as taking priority over the mortgagee rights, in anology with the Geneva Convention on the International Recognition of Rights in Aircrafts (1948). A qualitative method with the concept of interpretation of data collection has been used in this manuscript. The source of the data is the analysis of international conventions and domestic laws.

Keywords: ship finance, mortgage, maritime liens, brussels convenion, geneva convention 1948

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Authors: Stacia E. H. Sitohang, S.Mn., Socrates Rudy Sirait

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The first movie theater in Indonesia was established in December 1900. The movie industry started with international movie penetration. After a while, local movie producers started to rise and created local Indonesian movies. The industry is growing through ups and downs in Indonesia. In 2008, Visinema was founded in Jakarta, Indonesia, by AnggaDwimasSasongko, one of the most respected movie director in Indonesia. After getting achievements and recognition, Visinema chose to grow the company horizontally as opposed to only grow vertically and gain another similar achievement. Visinemachose to build the ecosystem that enables them to obtain many more opportunities and generatebusiness sustainability. The company proceed as an agile company. They created several business subsidiaries to support the company’s Intellectual Property (IP) development. This research was done through interview with the key persons in the company and questionnaire to get market insights regarding Visinema. The is able to transform their IP that initially started from movies to different kinds of business model. Interestingly, Angga chose to use the start up approach to create Visinema. In 2019, the company successfully gained Series A funding from Intudo Ventures and got other various investment schemes to support the business. In early 2020, Covid-19 pandemic negatively impacted many industries in Indonesia, especially the entertainment and leisure businesses. Fortunately, Visinema did not face any significant problem regarding survival during the pandemic, there were nolay-offs nor work hour reductions. Instead, they were thinking of much bigger opportunities and problems. While other companies suffer during the pandemic, Visinema created the first focused Transactional Video On Demand (TVOD) in Indonesia named Bioskop Online. The platform was created to keep the company innovating and adapting with the new online market as the result of the Covid-19 pandemic. Other than a digital platform, Visinemainvested heavily in animation to target kids and family business. They believed that penetrating the technology and animation market is going to be the biggest opportunity in Visinema’s road map. Besides huge opportunities, Visinema is also facing problems. The first is company brand positioning. Angga, as the founder, felt the need to detach his name from the brand image of Visinema to create system sustainability and scalability. Second, the company has to create a strategy to refocus in a particular business area to maintain and improve the competitive advantages. The third problem, IP piracy is a huge structural problem in Indonesia, the company considers IP thieves as their biggest competitors as opposed to other production company. As the recommendation, we suggest a set of branding and management strategy to detach the founder’s name from Visinema’s brand and improve the competitive advantages. We also suggest Visinema invest in system building to prevent IP piracy in the entertainment industry, which later can be another business subsidiary of Visinema.

Keywords: business ecosystem, agile, sustainability, scalability, start Up, intellectual property, digital platform

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Authors: Abdelghani Leghouchi

Abstract:

This study aims to predict the consequences associated with the propagation of the flood wave that may occur after the failure of the Taksebt dam and suggest an efficient emergency action plan (EAP) for mitigation purposes. To achieve the objectives of this study, the hydrodynamic model HEC-RAS 2D was used for the flood routing of the dam break wave, which gave an estimate of the hydraulic characteristics downstream the Taksebt dam. Geospatial analysis of the simulation results conducted in a Geographic information system (GIS) environment showed that many residential areas are considered to be in danger in case of the Taksebt dam break event. Based on the obtained results, an emergency actions plan was suggested to moderate the causalities in the downstream area at risk. Overall, the present study showed that the integration of 2D hydraulic modeling and GIS provides great capabilities in providing realistic view of the dam break wave propagation that enhances assessing the associated risks and proposing appropriate mitigation measures.

Keywords: taksebt dam, dam break, wave propagation time, HEC-RAS 2D

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