Search results for: supervisory control and data acquisition system
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 43409

Search results for: supervisory control and data acquisition system

27269 Machine Learning and Deep Learning Approach for People Recognition and Tracking in Crowd for Safety Monitoring

Authors: A. Degale Desta, Cheng Jian

Abstract:

Deep learning application in computer vision is rapidly advancing, giving it the ability to monitor the public and quickly identify potentially anomalous behaviour from crowd scenes. Therefore, the purpose of the current work is to improve the performance of safety of people in crowd events from panic behaviour through introducing the innovative idea of Aggregation of Ensembles (AOE), which makes use of the pre-trained ConvNets and a pool of classifiers to find anomalies in video data with packed scenes. According to the theory of algorithms that applied K-means, KNN, CNN, SVD, and Faster-CNN, YOLOv5 architectures learn different levels of semantic representation from crowd videos; the proposed approach leverages an ensemble of various fine-tuned convolutional neural networks (CNN), allowing for the extraction of enriched feature sets. In addition to the above algorithms, a long short-term memory neural network to forecast future feature values and a handmade feature that takes into consideration the peculiarities of the crowd to understand human behavior. On well-known datasets of panic situations, experiments are run to assess the effectiveness and precision of the suggested method. Results reveal that, compared to state-of-the-art methodologies, the system produces better and more promising results in terms of accuracy and processing speed.

Keywords: action recognition, computer vision, crowd detecting and tracking, deep learning

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27268 Transformation of the Institutionality of International Cooperation in Ecuador from 2007 to 2017: 2017: A Case of State Identity Affirmation through Role Performance

Authors: Natalia Carolina Encalada Castillo

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As part of an intended radical policy change compared to former administrations in Ecuador, the transformation of the institutionality of international cooperation during the period of President Rafael Correa was considered as a key element for the construction of the state of 'Good Living'. This intention led to several regulatory changes in the reception of cooperation for development, and even the departure of some foreign cooperation agencies. Moreover, Ecuador launched the initiative to become a donor of cooperation towards other developing countries through the ‘South-South Cooperation’ approach. All these changes were institutionalized through the Ecuadorian System of International Cooperation as a new framework to establish rules and policies that guarantee a sovereign management of foreign aid. Therefore, this research project has been guided by two questions: What were the factors that motivated the transformation of the institutionality of international cooperation in Ecuador from 2007 to 2017? and, what were the implications of this transformation in terms of the international role of the country? This paper seeks to answer these questions through Role Theory within a Constructivist meta-theoretical perspective, considering that in this case, changes at the institutional level in the field of cooperation, responded not only to material motivations but also to interests built on the basis of a specific state identity. The latter was only possible to affirm through specific roles such as ‘sovereign recipient of cooperation’ as well as ‘donor of international cooperation’. However, the performance of these roles was problematic as they were not easily accepted by the other actors in the international arena or in the domestic level. In terms of methodology, these dynamics are analyzed in a qualitative way mainly through interpretive analysis of the discourse of high-level decision-makers from Ecuador and other cooperation actors. Complementary to this, document-based research of relevant information as well as interviews have been conducted. Finally, it is concluded that even if material factors such as infrastructure needs, trade and investment interests, as well as reinforcement of state control and monitoring of cooperation flows, motivated the institutional transformation of international cooperation in Ecuador; the essential basis of these changes was the search for a new identity for the country to be projected in the international arena. This identity started to be built but continues to be unstable. Therefore, it is important to potentiate the achievements of the new international cooperation policies, and review their weaknesses, so that non-reimbursable cooperation funds received as well as ‘South-South cooperation’ actions, contribute effectively to national objectives.

Keywords: Ecuador, international cooperation, Role Theory, state identity

Procedia PDF Downloads 212
27267 Farmers’ Use of Indigenous Knowledge System (IKS) for Selected Arable Crops Production in Ondo State

Authors: A. M. Omoare, E. O. Fakoya

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This study sought to determine the use of indigenous knowledge for selected arable crops production in Ondo Sate. A multistage sampling method was used and 112 arable crops farmers were systematically selected. Data were analyzed using both descriptive and inferential statistics. The results showed that majority of the sampled farmers were male (75.90%) About 75% were married with children. Large proportion of them (62.61%) were within the ages of 30-49 years. Most of them have spent about 10 years in farming (58.92%). The highest raw scores of use of indigenous knowledge were found in planting on mound in yam production, use of native medicine and scare-crow method in controlling birds in rice production, timely planting of locally developed resistant varieties in cassava production and soaking of maize seeds in water to determine their viability with raw scores of 313, 310, 305, 303, and 300 respectively, while the lowest raw scores was obtained in use of bell method in controlling birds in rice production with raw scores of 210. The findings established that proverbs (59.8%) and taboos (55.36%) were the most commonly used media in transmitting indigenous knowledge by arable crop farmers. The multiple regression analysis result revealed that age of the farmers and farming experience had a significant relationship with the use of indigenous knowledge of the farmers which gave R2=0.83 for semi-log function form of equation which is the land equation. The policy implication is that indigenous knowledge should provide a basis for designing modern technologies to enhance sustainable agricultural development.

Keywords: Arable Crop Production, extent of use, indigenous knowledge, farming experience

Procedia PDF Downloads 571
27266 The Consequences of Regime Change in Iraq; Formation and Continuation of Geopolitical Crises

Authors: Ali Asghar Sotoudeh

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Since the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the subsequent regime change, internal conflicts between political and ethnic-religious groups have become a hallmark of Iraqi political dynamism. The most important manifestations of these conflicts are the Kurdish-central government conflicts, as well as fundamentalism since 2003. As a result, it seems not only US presence in Iraq under the pretext of fighting terrorism and expanding democracy has not had a positive effect on controlling fundamentalism and political stability in Iraq, but it has paved the way for the formation and continuation of geopolitical crises in the form of disputes over territory and sources of power. In this regard, given the importance of the study, the main purpose of this study is to examine the process of the impact of US regime-change policy on the formation and continuation of geopolitical crises in Iraq. The central question of this study is, what effect has the US regime change policy had on Iraq's domestic political processes? Findings show that regime change and subsequent imposed federalism have widened the gaps in Iraq's sectarian-ethnic system. As a result, the geopolitical crisis in the context of the dispute over geographical territory and sources of power between ethnic-religious groups has become the most important political dynamic in Iraq since the occupation. The research method in this article is descriptive-analytical, and the data collection method is library and internet resources.

Keywords: Iraq, united states, geopolitical crisis, ethno-religious conflict, political federalism

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27265 Exploring Ways Early Childhood Teachers Integrate Information and Communication Technologies into Children's Play: Two Case Studies from the Australian Context

Authors: Caroline Labib

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This paper reports on a qualitative study exploring the approaches teachers used to integrate computers or smart tablets into their program planning. Their aim was to integrate ICT into children’s play, thereby supporting children’s learning and development. Data was collected in preschool settings in Melbourne in 2016. Interviews with teachers, observations of teacher interactions with children and copies of teachers’ planning and observation documents informed the study. The paper looks closely at findings from two early childhood settings and focuses on exploring the differing approaches two EC teachers have adopted when integrating iPad or computers into their settings. Data analysis revealed three key approaches which have been labelled: free digital play, guided digital play and teacher-led digital use. Importantly, teacher decisions were influenced by the interplay between the opportunities that the ICT tools offered, the teachers’ prior knowledge and experience about ICT and children’s learning needs and contexts. This paper is a snapshot of two early childhood settings, and further research will encompass data from six more early childhood settings in Victoria with the aim of exploring a wide range of motivating factors for early childhood teachers trying to integrate ICT into their programs.

Keywords: early childhood education (ECE), digital play, information and communication technologies (ICT), play, and teachers' interaction approaches

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27264 Maximum Likelihood Estimation Methods on a Two-Parameter Rayleigh Distribution under Progressive Type-Ii Censoring

Authors: Daniel Fundi Murithi

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Data from economic, social, clinical, and industrial studies are in some way incomplete or incorrect due to censoring. Such data may have adverse effects if used in the estimation problem. We propose the use of Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) under a progressive type-II censoring scheme to remedy this problem. In particular, maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) for the location (µ) and scale (λ) parameters of two Parameter Rayleigh distribution are realized under a progressive type-II censoring scheme using the Expectation-Maximization (EM) and the Newton-Raphson (NR) algorithms. These algorithms are used comparatively because they iteratively produce satisfactory results in the estimation problem. The progressively type-II censoring scheme is used because it allows the removal of test units before the termination of the experiment. Approximate asymptotic variances and confidence intervals for the location and scale parameters are derived/constructed. The efficiency of EM and the NR algorithms is compared given root mean squared error (RMSE), bias, and the coverage rate. The simulation study showed that in most sets of simulation cases, the estimates obtained using the Expectation-maximization algorithm had small biases, small variances, narrower/small confidence intervals width, and small root of mean squared error compared to those generated via the Newton-Raphson (NR) algorithm. Further, the analysis of a real-life data set (data from simple experimental trials) showed that the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm performs better compared to Newton-Raphson (NR) algorithm in all simulation cases under the progressive type-II censoring scheme.

Keywords: expectation-maximization algorithm, maximum likelihood estimation, Newton-Raphson method, two-parameter Rayleigh distribution, progressive type-II censoring

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27263 Hydrogeochemical Investigation of Lead-Zinc Deposits in Oshiri and Ishiagu Areas, South Eastern Nigeria

Authors: Christian Ogubuchi Ede, Moses Oghenenyoreme Eyankware

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This study assessed the concentration of heavy metals (HMs) in soil, rock, mine dump pile, and water from Oshiri and Ishiagu areas of Ebonyi State. Investigations on mobile fraction equally evaluated the geochemical condition of different HM using UV spectrophotometer for Mineralized and unmineralized rocks, dumps, and soil, while AAS was used in determining the geochemical nature of the water system. Analysis revealed very high pollution of Cd mostly in Ishiagu (Ihetutu and Amaonye) active mine zones and with subordinates enrichments of Pb, Cu, As, and Zn in Amagu and Umungbala. Oshiri recorded sparingly moderate to high contamination of Cd and Mn but out rightly high anthropogenic input. Observation showed that most of the contamination conditions were unbearable while at the control but decrease with increasing distance from the mine vicinity. The potential heavy metal risk of the environments was evaluated using the risk factors such as enrichment factor, index of Geoacumulation, Contamination Factor, and Effect Range Median. Cadmium and Zn showed moderate to extreme contamination using Geoaccumulation Index (Igeo) while Pb, Cd, and As indicated moderate to strong pollution using the Effect Range Median. Results, when compared with the allowable limits and standards, showed the concentration of the metals in the following order Cd>Zn>Pb>As>Cu>Ni (rocks), Cd>As>Pb>Zn>Cu>Ni (soil) while Cd>Zn>As>Pb> Cu (for mine dump pile. High concentrations of Zn and As were recorded more in mine pond and salt line/drain channels along active mine zones, it heightened its threat during the rainy period as it settles into river course, living behind full-scale contaminations to inhabitants depending on it for domestic uses. Pb and Cu with moderate pollution were recorded in surface/stream water source as its mobility were relatively low. Results from Ishiagu Crush rock sites and Fedeco metallurgical and auto workshop where groundwater contamination was seen infiltrating some of the wells points gave rise to values that were 4 times high than the allowable limits. Some of these metal concentrations according to WHO (2015) if left unmitigated pose adverse effects to the soil and human community.

Keywords: water, geo-accumulation, heavy metals, mine and Nigeria.

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27262 Deepfake Detection for Compressed Media

Authors: Sushil Kumar Gupta, Atharva Joshi, Ayush Sonawale, Sachin Naik, Rajshree Khande

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The usage of artificially created videos and audio by deep learning is a major problem of the current media landscape, as it pursues the goal of misinformation and distrust. In conclusion, the objective of this work targets generating a reliable deepfake detection model using deep learning that will help detect forged videos accurately. In this work, CelebDF v1, one of the largest deepfake benchmark datasets in the literature, is adopted to train and test the proposed models. The data includes authentic and synthetic videos of high quality, therefore allowing an assessment of the model’s performance against realistic distortions.

Keywords: deepfake detection, CelebDF v1, convolutional neural network (CNN), xception model, data augmentation, media manipulation

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27261 Development of Time Series Forecasting Model for Dengue Cases in Nakhon Si Thammarat, Southern Thailand

Authors: Manit Pollar

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Identifying the dengue epidemic periods early would be helpful to take necessary actions to prevent the dengue outbreaks. Providing an accurate prediction on dengue epidemic seasons will allow sufficient time to take the necessary decisions and actions to safeguard the situation for local authorities. This study aimed to develop a forecasting model on number of dengue incidences in Nakhon Si Thammarat Province, Southern Thailand using time series analysis. We develop Seasonal Autoregressive Moving Average (SARIMA) models on the monthly data collected between 2003-2011 and validated the models using data collected between January-September 2012. The result of this study revealed that the SARIMA(1,1,0)(1,2,1)12 model closely described the trends and seasons of dengue incidence and confirmed the existence of dengue fever cases in Nakhon Si Thammarat for the years between 2003-2011. The study showed that the one-step approach for predicting dengue incidences provided significantly more accurate predictions than the twelve-step approach. The model, even if based purely on statistical data analysis, can provide a useful basis for allocation of resources for disease prevention.

Keywords: SARIMA, time series model, dengue cases, Thailand

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27260 Spatial Mapping of Variations in Groundwater of Taluka Islamkot Thar Using GIS and Field Data

Authors: Imran Aziz Tunio

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Islamkot is an underdeveloped sub-district (Taluka) in the Tharparkar district Sindh province of Pakistan located between latitude 24°25'19.79"N to 24°47'59.92"N and longitude 70° 1'13.95"E to 70°32'15.11"E. The Islamkot has an arid desert climate and the region is generally devoid of perennial rivers, canals, and streams. It is highly dependent on rainfall which is not considered a reliable surface water source and groundwater is the only key source of water for many centuries. To assess groundwater’s potential, an electrical resistivity survey (ERS) was conducted in Islamkot Taluka. Groundwater investigations for 128 Vertical Electrical Sounding (VES) were collected to determine the groundwater potential and obtain qualitatively and quantitatively layered resistivity parameters. The PASI Model 16 GL-N Resistivity Meter was used by employing a Schlumberger electrode configuration, with half current electrode spacing (AB/2) ranging from 1.5 to 100 m and the potential electrode spacing (MN/2) from 0.5 to 10 m. The data was acquired with a maximum current electrode spacing of 200 m. The data processing for the delineation of dune sand aquifers involved the technique of data inversion, and the interpretation of the inversion results was aided by the use of forward modeling. The measured geo-electrical parameters were examined by Interpex IX1D software, and apparent resistivity curves and synthetic model layered parameters were mapped in the ArcGIS environment using the inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) interpolation technique. Qualitative interpretation of vertical electrical sounding (VES) data shows the number of geo-electrical layers in the area varies from three to four with different resistivity values detected. Out of 128 VES model curves, 42 nos. are 3 layered, and 86 nos. are 4 layered. The resistivity of the first subsurface layers (Loose surface sand) varied from 16.13 Ωm to 3353.3 Ωm and thickness varied from 0.046 m to 17.52m. The resistivity of the second subsurface layer (Semi-consolidated sand) varied from 1.10 Ωm to 7442.8 Ωm and thickness varied from 0.30 m to 56.27 m. The resistivity of the third subsurface layer (Consolidated sand) varied from 0.00001 Ωm to 3190.8 Ωm and thickness varied from 3.26 m to 86.66 m. The resistivity of the fourth subsurface layer (Silt and Clay) varied from 0.0013 Ωm to 16264 Ωm and thickness varied from 13.50 m to 87.68 m. The Dar Zarrouk parameters, i.e. longitudinal unit conductance S is from 0.00024 to 19.91 mho; transverse unit resistance T from 7.34 to 40080.63 Ωm2; longitudinal resistance RS is from 1.22 to 3137.10 Ωm and transverse resistivity RT from 5.84 to 3138.54 Ωm. ERS data and Dar Zarrouk parameters were mapped which revealed that the study area has groundwater potential in the subsurface.

Keywords: electrical resistivity survey, GIS & RS, groundwater potential, environmental assessment, VES

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27259 Estimating the Power Influence of an Off-Grid Photovoltaic Panel on the Indicting Rate of a Storage System (Batteries)

Authors: Osamede Asowata

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The current resurgence of interest in the use of renewable energy is driven by the need to reduce the high environmental impact of fossil-based energy. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the effect of a stationary PV panel on the charging rate of deep-cycle valve regulated lead-acid (DCVRLA) batteries. Stationary PV panels are set to a fixed tilt and orientation angle, which plays a major role in dictating the output power of a PV panel and subsequently on the charging time of a DCVRLA battery. In a basic PV system, an energy storage device that stores the power from the PV panel is necessary due to the fluctuating nature of the PV voltage caused by climatic conditions. The charging and discharging times of a DCVRLA battery were determined for a twelve month period from January through December 2012. Preliminary results, which include regression analysis (R2), conversion-time per week and work-time per day, indicate that a 36 degrees tilt angle produces a good charging rate for a latitude of 26 degrees south throughout the year.

Keywords: tilt and orientation angles, solar chargers, PV panels, storage devices, direct solar radiation.

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27258 GAILoc: Improving Fingerprinting-Based Localization System Using Generative Artificial Intelligence

Authors: Getaneh Berie Tarekegn

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A precise localization system is crucial for many artificial intelligence Internet of Things (AI-IoT) applications in the era of smart cities. Their applications include traffic monitoring, emergency alarming, environmental monitoring, location-based advertising, intelligent transportation, and smart health care. The most common method for providing continuous positioning services in outdoor environments is by using a global navigation satellite system (GNSS). Due to nonline-of-sight, multipath, and weather conditions, GNSS systems do not perform well in dense urban, urban, and suburban areas.This paper proposes a generative AI-based positioning scheme for large-scale wireless settings using fingerprinting techniques. In this article, we presented a novel semi-supervised deep convolutional generative adversarial network (S-DCGAN)-based radio map construction method for real-time device localization. We also employed a reliable signal fingerprint feature extraction method with t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE), which extracts dominant features while eliminating noise from hybrid WLAN and long-term evolution (LTE) fingerprints. The proposed scheme reduced the workload of site surveying required to build the fingerprint database by up to 78.5% and significantly improved positioning accuracy. The results show that the average positioning error of GAILoc is less than 39 cm, and more than 90% of the errors are less than 82 cm. That is, numerical results proved that, in comparison to traditional methods, the proposed SRCLoc method can significantly improve positioning performance and reduce radio map construction costs.

Keywords: location-aware services, feature extraction technique, generative adversarial network, long short-term memory, support vector machine

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27257 Radio Frequency Identification System and Its Effect on Retailing Sector

Authors: Ayşe Çoban, Orhan Çoban, Murat Birekul

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In this study, the effects of radio frequency identification system on the retailing sector were theoretically analysed. The technology of Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) is a method enabling to identify the objects individually and automatically, using radio frequency. RFID generally consists of a tag and reader. RFID tags can be programmed to receive, store, and send the information of object such as Electronic Product Code (EPC). Having read the tags placed on product by the reader, the information associated with the management of supply chain can be automatically recorded and replaced. Recently, RFID technology used in many areas has particularly important effects on the businesses that are active in the retailing sector. The most important disadvantage of this technology is that the cost of installation and operation is higher compared to its alternatives. However, it provides important advantages to the business enterprises in the application process. At present, it is especially adopted by the large sized enterprises and with chain stores in the international areas. The application results point out that RFID technology provides business enterprises with the important competitive advantage.

Keywords: RFID, retailing sector, RFID technologies, electronic product code

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27256 Pre-harvest Application of Nutrients on Quality and Storability of Litchi CV Bombai

Authors: Nazmin Akter, Tariqul Islam, Abu Sayed

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Food loss and waste have become critical global issues, with approximately one-third of the world's food production being wasted. Among the various food products, horticultural fruits and vegetables are especially susceptible to loss due to their relatively short shelf lives. Litchi (Litchi chinensis) is one of Bangladesh's most important horticultural fruits. But the problem with this fruit is its short shelf life by losing weight faster after harvest. The experiment was carried out at Hajee Mohammad Danesh Science and Technology University, Dinajpur-5200 Bangladesh during 2020-2021. The objective of this experiment was to see the impact of nutrients viz., urea (1%), calcium chloride (1%), borax (1%), and their combinations on fruit quality and shelf life of litchi cv. Bombai. The experiment was laid out in a randomized block design with 7 treatments and 3 replications. Two sprays of each treatment were applied from the last week of May to June (at 20-day intervals). The results indicated that all the treatments significantly improved the quality parameters of litchi fruits as compared to the control. In terms of physicochemical characteristics fruit weight (20.30g), fruit volume (20m ml), and pulp percent (17.14) were found maximum with minimum stone percent (11.09) with the application of urea 1% + borax 1%+ calcium chloride 1%. Maximum TSS (19.62oBrix), TSS/acidity ratio (24.57), maximum ascorbic acid (45.19 mg/100 g pulp), and minimum acidity (0.80%) were reported with the application of T6 (Urea 1% + borax 1%+ calcium chloride 1%) treatments whereas fruits treated with urea 1% + borax 1% gave maximum total sugars (26.64%) and reducing sugars (19.19%) as compared to control. In the case of storage characters, application of Urea 1% + borax 1%+ calcium chloride 1% resulted in a minimum physiological loss in weight (6.11%), (8.41%), and (10.65%) for 2 days, 4 days, and 6 days respectively. In conclusion, to obtain better quality and increased storage period of litchi fruits, two sprays of urea, borax, and calcium chloride (1%) could be used during the fruit growth and development period at fortnightly intervals.

Keywords: litchi chinensis, preharvest, quality, shelf life, postharvest

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27255 Viability of Zoning Reform in Tackling Urban Inequality in Louisville

Authors: Mojeed A. Oladele

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The original zoning system in Louisville promoted social segregation among groups and remained a tool for social exclusion that strengthened preexisting inequalities. The current residential zoning system in Louisville is predominantly single-family residential housing. Of the 75% of total land allocated for residential purposes, 55% comprises single-family housing, constituting one form of development and ruminant problems of social segregation within the city. The zoning reform initiative birthed the spatial improvement and development of additional middle housing as a more generic and inclusive housing form. The paper investigates the basis of zoning reform relative to the interconnectedness amongst the discursive objects of analysis and the extensiveness as a strategic tool of structural adjustment. Qualitative methodological assessment generated by collective planning professionals reflects the effectiveness of the new zoning design in strengthening the socio-spatial interactions within the city. The zoning reform is currently at the early stage of implementation and requires more professional/public inputs and constant iterative processes for a more promising urban planning outcome.

Keywords: zoning reform, viability, urban inequality, housing affordability, Louisville

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27254 Making Heat Pumps More Compatible with Environmental and Climatic Conditions

Authors: Erol Sahin, Nesrin Adiguzel

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In this study, the effects of air temperature and relative humidity on the operation of the heat pump were examined experimentally. The results were analyzed in an energy and exergetic way. Two heat pumps were used in the experimental system established for experimental analysis. With the first heat pump, the relative humidity and temperature of atmospheric air are reduced. The air at low humidity and temperature is given heat and water vapor to the desired extent on the channel that reaches the other heat pump. Effects of the air reaching the desired humidity and temperature in the 2nd heat pump; temperature, humidity, pressure, flow, and current are detected by meters. The measured values and the exergy yield and thermodynamic favor ratios of the system and its components were determined. In this way, the effects of temperature and relative humidity change in the heat pump and components were tried to be revealed. Relative humidity in the air caused a significant increase in the loss of exergy in the evaporator. This has shown that cooling machines experience greater exergy in areas with high relative humidity. The highest COPSM values were determined to be at 30% and 40%, which is the least relative humidity values. The results showed that heat pump exergy efficiency was affected by increased temperature and relative humidity.

Keywords: relative humidity, effects of relative humidity on heat pumps, exergy analysis, exergy analysis in heat pumps, exergy efficiency

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27253 Internal Power Recovery in Cryogenic Cooling Plants, Part II: Compressor Development

Authors: Ambra Giovannelli, Erika Maria Archilei

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The electrical power consumption related to refrigeration systems is evaluated to be in the order of 15% of the total electricity consumption worldwide. For this reason, in the last years several energy saving techniques have been suggested to reduce the power demand of refrigeration and air conditioning plants. The research work deals with the development of an innovative internal power recovery system for industrial cryogenic cooling plants. Such system is based on a Compressor-Expander Group (CEG). Both the expander and the compressor have been designed starting from automotive turbocharging components, strongly modified to take refrigerant fluid properties and specific system requirements into consideration. A preliminary choice of the machines (radial compressors and expanders) among existing components available on the market was realised according to the rules of the similarity theory. Once the expander was selected, it was strongly modified and performance verified by means of steady-state 3D CFD simulations. This paper focuses the attention on the development of the second CEG main component: the compressor. Once the preliminary selection has been done, the compressor geometry has been modified to take the new boundary conditions into account. In particular, the impeller has been machined to address the required total enthalpy increase. Such evaluation has been carried out by means of a simplified 1D model. Moreover, a vaneless diffuser has been added, modifying the shape of casing rear and front disks. To verify the performance of the modified compressor geometry and suggest improvements, a numerical fluid dynamic model has been set up and the commercial Ansys-CFX software has been used to perform steady-state 3D simulations. In this work, all the numerical results will be shown, highlighting critical aspects and suggesting further developments to increase compressor performance and flexibility.

Keywords: vapour compression systems, energy saving, refrigeration plant, organic fluids, centrifugal compressor

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27252 Microglia Activity and Induction of Mechanical Allodynia after Mincle Receptor Ligand Injection in Rat Spinal Cord

Authors: Jihoon Yang, Jeong II Choi

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Mincle is expressed in macrophages and is members of immunoreceptors induced after exposure to various stimuli and stresses. Mincle receptor activation promotes the production of these substances by increasing the transcription of inflammatory cytokines and chemokines. Cytokines, which play an important role in the initiation and maintenance of such inflammatory pain diseases, have a significant effect on sensory neurons in addition to their enhancement and inhibitory effects on immune and inflammatory cells as mediators of cell interaction. Glial cells in the central nervous system play a critical role in development and maintenance of chronic pain states. Microglia are tissue-resident macrophages in the central nervous system, and belong to a group of mononuclear phagocytes. In the central nervous system, mincle receptor is present in neurons and glial cells of the brain.This study was performed to identify the Mincle receptor in the spinal cord and to investigate the effect of Mincle receptor activation on nociception and the changes of microglia. Materials and Methods: C-type lectins(Mincle) was identified in spinal cord of Male Sprague–Dawley rats. Then, mincle receptor ligand (TDB), via an intrathecal catheter. Mechanical allodynia was measured using von Frey test to evaluate the effect of intrathecal injection of TDB. Result: The present investigation shows that the intrathecal administration of TDB in the rat produces a reliable and quantifiable mechanical hyperalgesia. In addition, The mechanical hyperalgesia after TDB injection gradually developed over time and remained until 10 days. Mincle receptor is identified in the spinal cord, mainly expressed in neuronal cells, but not in microglia or astrocyte. These results suggest that activation of mincle receptor pathway in neurons plays an important role in inducing activation of microglia and inducing mechanical allodynia.

Keywords: mincle, spinal cord, pain, microglia

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27251 Synergistic Effect of Plant Growth Promoting Bacteria and Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungi to Enhance Wheat Grain Yield, Biofortification and Soil Health: A Field Study

Authors: Radheshyam Yadav, Ramakrishna Wusirika

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Plant Growth Promoting Bacteria (PGPB) and Arbuscular Mycorrhizal (AM) Fungi are ubiquitous in soil and often very critical for crop yield and agriculture sustainability, and this has motivated the agricultural practices to support and promote PGPB and AM Fungi in agriculture. PGPB can be involved in a range of processes that affect Nitrogen (N) and Phosphorus (P) transformations in soil and thus influence nutrient availability and uptake to the plants. A field study with two wheat cultivars, HD-3086, and HD-2967 was performed in Malwa region, Bathinda of Punjab, India, to evaluate the effect of native and non-native PGPB alone and in combination with AM fungi as an inoculant on wheat grain yield, nutrient uptake and soil health parameters (dehydrogenase, urease, β‐glucosidase). Our results showed that despite an early insignificant increase in shoot length, plants treated with PGPB (Bacillus sp.) and AM Fungi led to a significant increase in shoot growth at maturity, aboveground biomass, nitrogen (45% - 40%) and phosphorus (40% - 34%) content in wheat grains relative to untreated control plants. Similarly, enhanced grain yield and nutrients uptake i.e. copper (27.15% - 36.25%) iron (43% - 53%) and zinc (44% - 47%) was recorded in PGPB and AM Fungi treated plants relative to untreated control. Overall, inoculation with native PGPB alone and in combination with AM Fungi provided benefits to enhance grain yield, wheat biofortification, and improved soil fertility, despite this effect varied depending on different PGPB isolates and wheat cultivars. These field study results provide evidence of the benefits of agricultural practices involving native PGPB and AM Fungi to the plants. These native strains and AM Fungi increased accumulations of copper, iron, and zinc in wheat grains, enhanced grain yield, and soil fertility.

Keywords: AM Fungi, biofortification, PGPB, soil microbial enzymes

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27250 A Comparative Analysis of Evacuation Behavior in Case of Cyclone Sidr, Typhoon Yolanda and the Great East Japan Earthquake

Authors: Swarnali Chakma, Akihiko Hokugo

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Research on three case studies reviewed here explains many aspects and complications of evacuation behavior during an emergency period. The scenario and phenomenon of the disaster were different, but the similarities are that after receiving the warning peoples does not take it seriously. Many individuals evacuated after taking some kind of action, for example; return to home, searching for family members, prepared valuable things etc. Based on a review of the literature, the data identified a number of factors that help explain evacuation behavior during the disaster. In the case of Japan, cultural inhibitors impact people’s behavior; for example, following the traffic rules, some people lost their time to skip because of the slow-moving car makes overcrowded traffic and some of them were washed away by the tsunami. In terms of Bangladeshi culture, women did not want to evacuate without men because staying men and women who do not know each other under the same roof together is not regular practice or comfortable. From these three case studies, it is observed that early warning plays an important role in cyclones, typhoons and earthquakes. A high level of trust from residents in the warning system is important to real evacuation. It is necessary to raise awareness of disaster and provide information on the vulnerability to cyclones, typhoons and earthquakes hazards at community levels. The local level may help decision makers and other stakeholders to make a better decision regarding an effective disaster management.

Keywords: disaster management, emergency period, evacuation, shelter, typhoon

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27249 Natural and Synthetic Antioxidant in Beef Meatball

Authors: Abul Hashem

Abstract:

The experiment was conducted to find out the effect of different levels of Moringa oleifiera leaf extract and synthetic antioxidant (Beta Hydroxyl Anisole) on fresh and preserved beef meatballs. For this purpose, ground beef samples were divided into five treatment groups. They are treated as control, synthetic antioxidant, 0.1%, 0.2% and 0.3% Moringa oleifera leaf extract as T1, T2, T3, T4 and T5, respectively. Five kinds of meatballs were made and biscuit crushed and egg albumin was mixed with beef meatballs and cooking was practiced properly. Proximate analysis, sensory tests (color, flavor, tenderness, juiciness, overall acceptability), cooking loss, pH value, free fatty acids (FFA), thiobarbituric acid values (TBARS), peroxide value(POV) and microbiological examination were determined in order to evaluate the effect of Moringa oleifiera leaf extract as natural antioxidant & antimicrobial activities in comparing to BHA (Beta Hydroxyl Anisole) at first day before freezing and for maintaining meatballs qualities on the shelf life of beef meat balls stored for 60 days under frozen condition. Freezing temperature was -20˚C. Days of intervals of experiment were on 0, 15th, 30th, and 60th days. Dry matter content of all the treatment groups differ significantly (p<0.05). On the contrary, DM content increased significantly (p<0.05) with the advancement of different days of intervals. CP content of all the treatments were increased significantly (p<0.05) among the different treatment groups. EE content at different treatment levels differ significantly (p<0.05). Ash content at different treatment levels was also differ significantly (p<0.05). FFA values, TBARS, POV were decreased significantly (p<0.05) at different treatment levels. Color, odor, tenderness, juiciness, overall acceptability, raw PH, cooked pH were increased at different treatment levels significantly (p<0.05). The cooking loss (%) at different treatment levels were differ significantly (p<0.05). TVC (logCFU/g), TCC (logCFU/g) and TYMC (logCFU/g) was decreased significantly (p<0.05) at different treatment levels comparison to control. Considering CP, tenderness, juiciness, overall acceptability, cooking loss, FFA, POV, TBARS and microbial parameters it can be concluded that Moringa oleifera leaf extract at 0.1%, 0.2% and 0.3% can be used instead of 0.1% synthetic antioxidant BHA in beef meatballs.

Keywords: antioxidant, beef meatball, BHA, moringa leaf extract, quality

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27248 Effect of Nigella sativa on Blood Pressure, Vascular Reactivity, Inflammatory Biomarkers and Nitric Oxide in L-Name-Induced Hypertensive Rats

Authors: Kamsiah Jaarin, Yusof Kamisah, Faizah Othman Nurul Akmal Muhammad, Zakiah Jubri, Qodriyah Mohd Saad, Srijit Das

Abstract:

Forty (40) normotensive adult male Sprague-Dawley rats aged three months weighing 180-200 g were divided into 4 groups with 10 rats per group: (1) normotensive control; (2) hypertensive rats; (3) hypertensive rats treated with Nigella sativa (2.5 ml/kg/day); and (4) hypertensive rats treated with nicardipine (5 mg/kg/day). After acclimatization, the hypertensive rats of the group 2, 3 and 4 were induced to be hypertensive by giving NW–nitro-L-arginine methyl ester (L-NAME; 30 mg/kg/day) in their drinking water for consecutive 7 days. After one week, rats in the group 3 were given a daily oral dose of 2.5 ml/kg/day of Nigella sativa (NS) by oral gavage. Rats in the group 4 were given nicardipine (5 mg/kg/day) via oral gavages. All rats in this study received L-NAME continuously throughout the treatment duration. The blood pressure will be measured pre-treatment and weekly for 8 weeks using power lab. Blood was taken before and at the end of study for measurement of nitric oxide. At the end of 8 weeks, the rats are sacrificed and descending thoracic aorta was disserted for measurement of vascular reactivity, and intracellular adhesion molecules (ICAM-1) and vascular cell adhesion molecules (VCAM-1). Nigella sativa reduced both systolic and diastolic BP compared to control and L-name group. The BP lowering effect of NS was comparable to nicardipine a calcium antagonist. The blood pressure lowering effect of NS was accompanied with an increasing relaxation response to nitroprusside and acetylcholine and reducing vasoconstriction response to epinephrine. L-NAME and nicardipine on the other hand, reduced plasma nitric oxide concentration. In contrast, NS increased NO concentration. However, Nigella sativa had no significant effect on aortic VCAM- 1 and ICAM-1 expression. In conclusion; Nigella sativa oil reduces both systolic and diastolic blood pressure in L-NAME treated rats. The antihypertensive effect of NS was comparable to nicardipine. The BP lowering effect may be mediated via stimulating nitric oxide release from vascular endothelium.

Keywords: Nigella sativa, ICAM, VCAM, blood pressure, vascular reactivity

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27247 Non-Invasive Viscosity Determination of Liquid Organic Hydrogen Carriers by Alteration of Temperature and Flow Velocity Using Cavity Based Permittivity Measurement

Authors: I. Wiemann, N. Weiß, E. Schlücker, M. Wensing, A. Kölpin

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Chemical storage of hydrogen by liquid organic hydrogen carriers (LOHC) is a very promising alternative to compression or cryogenics. These carriers have high energy density and allow at the same time efficient and safe storage of hydrogen under ambient conditions and without leakage losses. Another benefit of LOHC is the possibility to transport it using already available infrastructure for transport of fossil fuels. Efficient use of LOHC is related to a precise process control, which requires a number of sensors in order to measure all relevant process parameters, for example, to measure the level of hydrogen loading of the carrier. The degree of loading is relevant for the energy content of the storage carrier and represents simultaneously the modification in chemical structure of the carrier molecules. This variation can be detected in different physical properties like viscosity, permittivity or density. Thereby, each degree of loading corresponds to different viscosity values. Conventional measurements currently use invasive viscosity measurements or near-line measurements to obtain quantitative information. Avoiding invasive measurements has several severe advantages. Efforts are currently taken to provide a precise, non-invasive measurement method with equal or higher precision of the obtained results. This study investigates a method for determination of the viscosity of LOHC. Since the viscosity can retroactively derived from the degree of loading, permittivity is a target parameter as it is a suitable for determining the hydrogenation degree. This research analyses the influence of common physical properties on permittivity. The permittivity measurement system is based on a cavity resonator, an electromagnetic resonant structure, whose resonation frequency depends on its dimensions as well as the permittivity of the medium inside. For known resonator dimensions, the resonation frequency directly characterizes the permittivity. In order to determine the dependency of the permittivity on temperature and flow velocity, an experimental setup with heating device and flow test bench was designed. By varying temperature in the range of 293,15 K -393,15 K and flow velocity up to 140 mm/s, corresponding changes in the resonation frequency were measured in the hundredths of the GHz range.

Keywords: liquid organic hydrogen carriers, measurement, permittivity, viscosity., temperature, flow process

Procedia PDF Downloads 100
27246 Development of Thermal Regulating Textile Material Consisted of Macrocapsulated Phase Change Material

Authors: Surini Duthika Fernandopulle, Kalamba Arachchige Pramodya Wijesinghe

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Macrocapsules containing phase change material (PCM) PEG4000 as core and Calcium Alginate as the shell was synthesized by in-situ polymerization process, and their suitability for textile applications was studied. PCM macro-capsules were sandwiched between two polyurethane foams at regular intervals, and the sandwiched foams were subsequently covered with 100% cotton woven fabrics. According to the mathematical modelling and calculations 46 capsules were required to provide cooling for a period of 2 hours at 56ºC, so a panel of 10 cm x 10 cm area with 25 parts (having 5 capsules in each for 9 parts are 16 parts spaced for air permeability) were effectively merged into one textile material without changing the textile's original properties. First, the available cooling techniques related to textiles were considered and the best cooling techniques suiting the Sri Lankan climatic conditions were selected using a survey conducted for Sri Lankan Public based on ASHRAE-55-2010 standard and it consisted of 19 questions under 3 sections categorized as general information, thermal comfort sensation and requirement of Personal Cooling Garments (PCG). The results indicated that during daytime, majority of respondents feel warm and during nighttime also majority have responded as slightly warm. The survey also revealed that around 85% of the respondents are willing to accept a PCG. The developed panels were characterized using Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) and Thermogravimetric Analysis (TGA) tests and the findings from FTIR showed that the macrocapsules consisted of PEG 4000 as the core material and Calcium Alginate as the shell material and findings from TGA showed that the capsules had the average weight percentage for core with 61,9% and shell with 34,7%. After heating both control samples and samples incorporating PCM panels, it was discovered that only the temperature of the control sample increased after 56ºC, whereas the temperature of the sample incorporating PCM panels began to regulate the temperature at 56ºC, preventing a temperature increase beyond 56ºC.

Keywords: phase change materials, thermal regulation, textiles, macrocapsules

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27245 Dosimetric Application of α-Al2O3:C for Food Irradiation Using TA-OSL

Authors: A. Soni, D. R. Mishra, D. K. Koul

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α-Al2O3:C has been reported to have deeper traps at 600°C and 900°C respectively. These traps have been reported to accessed at relatively earlier temperatures (122 and 322 °C respectively) using thermally assisted OSL (TA-OSL). In this work, the dose response α-Al2O3:C was studied in the dose range of 10Gy to 10kGy for its application in food irradiation in low ( upto 1kGy) and medium(1 to 10kGy) dose range. The TOL (Thermo-optically stimulated luminescence) measurements were carried out on RisØ TL/OSL, TL-DA-15 system having a blue light-emitting diodes (λ=470 ±30nm) stimulation source with power level set at the 90% of the maximum stimulation intensity for the blue LEDs (40 mW/cm2). The observations were carried on commercial α-Al2O3:C phosphor. The TOL experiments were carried out with number of active channel (300) and inactive channel (1). Using these settings, the sample is subjected to linear thermal heating and constant optical stimulation. The detection filter used in all observations was a Hoya U-340 (Ip ~ 340 nm, FWHM ~ 80 nm). Irradiation of the samples was carried out using a 90Sr/90Y β-source housed in the system. A heating rate of 2 °C/s was preferred in TL measurements so as to reduce the temperature lag between the heater plate and the samples. To study the dose response of deep traps of α-Al2O3:C, samples were irradiated with various dose ranging from 10 Gy to 10 kGy. For each set of dose, three samples were irradiated. In order to record the TA-OSL, initially TL was recorded up to a temperature of 400°C, to deplete the signal due to 185°C main dosimetry TL peak in α-Al2O3:C, which is also associated with the basic OSL traps. After taking TL readout, the sample was subsequently subjected to TOL measurement. As a result, two well-defined TA-OSL peaks at 121°C and at 232°C occur in time as well as temperature domain which are different from the main dosimetric TL peak which occurs at ~ 185°C. The linearity of the integrated TOL signal has been measured as a function of absorbed dose and found to be linear upto 10kGy. Thus, it can be used for low and intermediate dose range of for its application in food irradiation. The deep energy level defects of α-Al2O3:C phosphor can be accessed using TOL section of RisØ reader system.

Keywords: α-Al2O3:C, deep traps, food irradiation, TA-OSL

Procedia PDF Downloads 299
27244 Effect on the Integrity of the DN300 Pipe and Valves in the Cooling Water System Imposed by the Pipes and Ventilation Pipes above in an Earthquake Situation

Authors: Liang Zhang, Gang Xu, Yue Wang, Chen Li, Shao Chong Zhou

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Presently, more and more nuclear power plants are facing the issue of life extension. When a nuclear power plant applies for an extension of life, its condition needs to meet the current design standards, which is not fine for all old reactors, typically for seismic design. Seismic-grade equipment in nuclear power plants are now generally placed separately from the non-seismic-grade equipment, but it was not strictly required before. Therefore, it is very important to study whether non-seismic-grade equipment will affect the seismic-grade equipment when dropped down in an earthquake situation, which is related to the safety of nuclear power plants and future life extension applications. This research was based on the cooling water system with the seismic and non-seismic grade equipment installed together, as an example to study whether the non-seismic-grade equipment such as DN50 fire pipes and ventilation pipes arranged above will damage the DN300 pipes and valves arranged below when earthquakes occur. In the study, the simulation was carried out by ANSYS / LY-DYNA, and Johnson-Cook was used as the material model and failure model. For the experiments, the relative positions of objects in the room were restored by 1: 1. In the experiment, the pipes and valves were filled with water with a pressure of 0.785 MPa. The pressure-holding performance of the pipe was used as a criterion for damage. In addition to the pressure-holding performance, the opening torque was considered as well for the valves. The research results show that when the 10-meter-long DN50 pipe was dropped from the position of 8 meters height and the 8-meter-long air pipe dropped from a position of 3.6 meters height, they do not affect the integrity of DN300 pipe below. There is no failure phenomenon in the simulation as well. After the experiment, the pressure drop in two hours for the pipe is less than 0.1%. The main body of the valve does not fail either. The opening torque change after the experiment is less than 0.5%, but the handwheel of the valve may break, which affects the opening actions. In summary, impacts of the upper pipes and ventilation pipes dropdown on the integrity of the DN300 pipes and valves below in a cooling water system of a typical second-generation nuclear power plant under an earthquake was studied. As a result, the functionality of the DN300 pipeline and the valves themselves are not significantly affected, but the handwheel of the valve or similar articles can probably be broken and need to take care.

Keywords: cooling water system, earthquake, integrity, pipe and valve

Procedia PDF Downloads 112
27243 Governance Challenges of Consolidated Destinations. The Case of Barcelona

Authors: Montserrat Crespi-Vallbona; Oscar Mascarilla-Miró

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Mature destinations have different challenges trying to attract tourism and please its citizens. Hence, they have to maintain their touristic interest to standard demand and also not to undeceive those tourists with more advanced experiences. Second, they have to be concerned for the daily life of citizens and avoid the negative effects of touristification. This balance is quite delicate and often has to do with the sensitivity and commitment of the party in the local government. However, what is a general consensus is the need for destinations to differentiate from the homogeneous rest of regions and create new content, consumable resources or marketing events to guarantee their positioning. In this sense, the main responsibility of destinations is to satisfy users, tourists and citizens. Hence, its aim has to do with holistic experiences, which collect these wide approaches. Specifically, this research aims to analyze the volume and growth of tourist houses in the central touristic neighborhoods of Barcelona (this is Ciutat Vella) as the starting point to identify the behavior of tourists regarding their interests in searching for local heritage attractiveness and community atmosphere. Then, different cases are analyzed in order to show how Barcelona struggles to keep its attractive brand for the visitors, as well as for its inhabitants. Methodologically, secondary data used in this research comes from official registered tourist houses (Catalunya Government), Open Data (Barcelona municipality), the Airbnb tourist platform, from the Incasol Data and Municipal Register of Inhabitants. Primary data are collected through in-depth interviews with neighbors, social movement managers and political representatives from Turisme de Barcelona (local DMO, Destination Management Organization). Results show what the opportunities and priorities are for key actors to design policies to find a balance between all different interests.

Keywords: touristification, tourist houses, governance, tourism demand, airbnbfication

Procedia PDF Downloads 65
27242 Coffee Consumption and Glucose Metabolism: a Systematic Review of Clinical Trials

Authors: Caio E. G. Reis, Jose G. Dórea, Teresa H. M. da Costa

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Objective: Epidemiological data shows an inverse association of coffee consumption with risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus. However, the clinical effects of coffee consumption on the glucose metabolism biomarkers remain controversial. Thus, this paper reviews clinical trials that evaluated the effects of coffee consumption on glucose metabolism. Research Design and Methods: We identified studies published until December 2014 by searching electronic databases and reference lists. We included randomized clinical trials which the intervention group received caffeinated and/or decaffeinated coffee and the control group received water or placebo treatments and measured biomarkers of glucose metabolism. The Jadad Score was applied to evaluate the quality of the studies whereas studies that scored ≥ 3 points were considered for the analyses. Results: Seven clinical trials (total of 237 subjects) were analyzed involving adult healthy, overweight and diabetic subjects. The studies were divided in short-term (1 to 3h) and long-term (2 to 16 weeks) duration. The results for short-term studies showed that caffeinated coffee consumption may increase the area under the curve for glucose response, while for long-term studies caffeinated coffee may improve the glycemic metabolism by reducing the glucose curve and increasing insulin response. These results seem to show that the benefits of coffee consumption occur in the long-term as has been shown in the reduction of type 2 diabetes mellitus risk in epidemiological studies. Nevertheless, until the relationship between long-term coffee consumption and type 2 diabetes mellitus is better understood and any mechanism involved identified, it is premature to make claims about coffee preventing type 2 diabetes mellitus. Conclusion: The findings suggest that caffeinated coffee may impairs glucose metabolism in short-term but in the long-term the studies indicate reduction of type 2 diabetes mellitus risk. More clinical trials with comparable methodology are needed to unravel this paradox.

Keywords: coffee, diabetes mellitus type 2, glucose, insulin

Procedia PDF Downloads 465
27241 Harnessing Train-Induced Airflows in Underground Metro Stations for Renewable Energy Generation: A Feasibility Study Using Bayesian Modeling and RETScreen

Authors: Lisha Tan, Yunbo Nie, Mohammad Rahnama

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This study investigates the feasibility of harnessing train-induced airflows in underground metro stations as a source of renewable energy. Field measurements were conducted at multiple SkyTrain stations to assess wind speed distributions caused by passing trains. The data revealed significant airflow velocities with multimodal characteristics driven by varying train operations. These airflow velocities represent substantial kinetic energy that can be converted into usable power. Calculations showed that wind power densities within the underground tunnels ranged from 0.97 W/m² to 3.46 W/m², based on average cubed wind speeds, indicating considerable energy content available for harvesting. A Bayesian method was utilized to model these wind speed distributions, effectively capturing the complex airflow patterns. Further analysis using RETScreen evaluated the cost-benefit and environmental impact of implementing energy harvesting systems. Preliminary results suggest that the proposed system could result in substantial energy savings, reduce CO₂ emissions, and provide a favorable payback period, highlighting the economic and environmental viability of integrating wind turbines into metro stations.

Keywords: train-induced airflows, renewable energy generation, wind power density, RETScreen

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27240 Predicting Recessions with Bivariate Dynamic Probit Model: The Czech and German Case

Authors: Lukas Reznak, Maria Reznakova

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Recession of an economy has a profound negative effect on all involved stakeholders. It follows that timely prediction of recessions has been of utmost interest both in the theoretical research and in practical macroeconomic modelling. Current mainstream of recession prediction is based on standard OLS models of continuous GDP using macroeconomic data. This approach is not suitable for two reasons: the standard continuous models are proving to be obsolete and the macroeconomic data are unreliable, often revised many years retroactively. The aim of the paper is to explore a different branch of recession forecasting research theory and verify the findings on real data of the Czech Republic and Germany. In the paper, the authors present a family of discrete choice probit models with parameters estimated by the method of maximum likelihood. In the basic form, the probits model a univariate series of recessions and expansions in the economic cycle for a given country. The majority of the paper deals with more complex model structures, namely dynamic and bivariate extensions. The dynamic structure models the autoregressive nature of recessions, taking into consideration previous economic activity to predict the development in subsequent periods. Bivariate extensions utilize information from a foreign economy by incorporating correlation of error terms and thus modelling the dependencies of the two countries. Bivariate models predict a bivariate time series of economic states in both economies and thus enhance the predictive performance. A vital enabler of timely and successful recession forecasting are reliable and readily available data. Leading indicators, namely the yield curve and the stock market indices, represent an ideal data base, as the pieces of information is available in advance and do not undergo any retroactive revisions. As importantly, the combination of yield curve and stock market indices reflect a range of macroeconomic and financial market investors’ trends which influence the economic cycle. These theoretical approaches are applied on real data of Czech Republic and Germany. Two models for each country were identified – each for in-sample and out-of-sample predictive purposes. All four followed a bivariate structure, while three contained a dynamic component.

Keywords: bivariate probit, leading indicators, recession forecasting, Czech Republic, Germany

Procedia PDF Downloads 247