Search results for: minor allele frequency

Authors: A. E. Buyken, D. J. Mela, P. Dussort, I. T. Johnson, I. A. Macdonald, A. Piekarz, J. D. Stowell, F. Brouns

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Recently a number of renewed dietary guidelines have been published by various health authorities. The aim of the present work was 1) to review the processes (systematic approach/review, inclusion of public consultation) and methodological approaches used to identify and select the underpinning evidence base for the established recommendations for total carbohydrate (CHO), fiber and sugar consumption, and 2) examine how differences in the methods and processes applied may have influenced the final recommendations. A search of WHO, US, Canada, Australia and European sources identified 13 authoritative dietary guidelines with the desired detailed information. Each of these guidelines was evaluated for its scientific basis (types and grading of the evidence) and the processes by which the guidelines were developed Based on the data retrieved the following conclusions can be drawn: 1) Generally, a relatively high total CHO and fiber intake and limited intake of sugars (added or free) is recommended. 2) Even where recommendations are quite similar, the specific, justifications for quantitative/qualitative recommendations differ across authorities. 3) Differences appear to be due to inconsistencies in underlying definitions of CHO exposure and in the concurrent appraisal of CHO-providing foods and nutrients as well the choice and number of health outcomes selected for the evidence appraisal. 4) Differences in the selected articles, time frames or data aggregation method appeared to be of rather minor influence. From this assessment, the main recommendations are for: 1) more explicit quantitative justifications for numerical guidelines and communication of uncertainty; and 2) greater international harmonization, particularly with regard to underlying definitions of exposures and range of relevant nutrition-related outcomes.

Keywords: carbohydrates, dietary fibres, dietary guidelines, recommendations, sugars

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Authors: Catrin Morgan, Atholl Johnston

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Creatine supplementation should theoretically increase total muscle creatine and so enhance the generation of intramuscular phosphocreatine and subsequent ATP formation. The use of creatine as a potential ergogenic aid in sport has been an area of significant scientific research for a number of years. However the effect of creatine supplementation and swimming performance is a relatively new area of research and is the subject of this review. In swimming creatine supplementation could help maintain maximal power output, aid recovery and increase lean body mass. After investigating the underlying theory and science behind creatine supplementation, a literature review was conducted to identify the best evidence looking at the effect of creatine supplementation on swimming performance. The search identified 27 potential studies, and of these 17 were selected for review. The studies were then categorised into single sprint performance, which involves swimming a short distance race, or repeated interval performance, which involves swimming a series of sprints with intervals of rest between them. None of the studies on the effect of creatine controlled for the multiple confounding factors associated with measurement of swimming performance. The sample size in the studies was limited and this reduced the reliability of the studies and introduced the possibility of bias. The studies reviewed provided insufficient evidence to determine if creatine supplementation is beneficial to swimming performance. However, what data there was supported the use of creatine supplementation in repeated interval swimming rather than in single sprint swimming. From a review of the studies, it was calculated on average, there was a 1.37% increase in swimming performance with the use of creatine for repeated intervals and a 0.86% increase in performance for single sprint. While this may seem minor, it should be remembered that swimming races are often won by much smaller margins. In the 2012 London Olympics the Men’s 100 metres freestyle race was won by a margin of only 0.01 of a second. Therefore any potential benefit could make a dramatic difference to the final outcome of the race. Overall more research is warranted before the benefits of creatine supplementation in swimming performance can be further clarified.

Keywords: creatine supplementation, repeated interval, single sprint, swimming performance

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Authors: Rasheed Amao Busari, Ahmed Ibrahim

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The engineering properties of giant palms are crucial for the reasonable design of the processing and handling systems. The research was conducted to investigate some engineering properties of giant palm seeds in relation to their oil potential. The ripe giant palm fruit was sourced from some parts of Zaria in Kaduna State and Ado Ekiti in Ekiti State, Nigeria. The mesocarps of the fruits collected were removed to obtain the nuts, while the collected nuts were dried under ambient conditions for several days. The actual moisture content of the nuts at the time of the experiment was determined using KT100S Moisture Meter, with moisture content ranged 17.9% to 19.15%. The physical properties determined are axial dimension, geometric mean diameter, arithmetic mean diameter, sphericity, true and bulk densities, porosity, angles of repose, and coefficients of friction. The nuts were measured using a vernier caliper for physical assessment of their sizes. The axial dimensions of 100 nuts were taken and the result shows that the size ranges from 7.30 to 9.32cm for major diameter, 7.2 to 8.9 cm for intermediate diameter, and 4.2 to 6.33 for minor diameter. The mechanical properties determined were compressive force, compressive stress, and deformation both at peak and break using Instron hydraulic universal tensile testing machine. The work also revealed that giant palm seed can be classified as an oil-bearing seed. The seed gave 18% using the solvent extraction method. The results obtained from the study will help in solving the problem of equipment design, handling, and further processing of the seeds.

Keywords: giant palm seeds, engineering properties, oil potential, moisture content, and giant palm fruit

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Authors: Carlos Herrera Sierralta, Husain M. Muslim, Meshal T. Alsaiari, Daniel Fischer

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Preventing piping fatigue flow induced vibration in the Oil & Gas sector demands not only the constant development of engineering design methodologies based on available software packages, but also special piping support technologies for designing safe and reliable piping systems. The vast majority of piping vibration problems in the Oil & Gas industry are provoked by the process flow characteristics which are basically intrinsically related to the fluid properties, the type of service and its different operational scenarios. In general, the corrective actions recommended for flow induced vibration in piping systems can be grouped in two major areas: those which affect the excitation mechanisms typically associated to process variables, and those which affect the response mechanism of the pipework per se, and the pipework associated steel support structure. Where possible the first option is to try to solve the flow induced problem from the excitation mechanism perspective. However, in producing facilities the approach of changing process parameters might not always be convenient as it could lead to reduction of production rates or it may require the shutdown of the system in order to perform the required piping modification. That impediment might lead to a second option, which is to modify the response of the piping system to excitation generated by the type of process flow. In principle, the action of shifting the natural frequency of the system well above the frequency inherent to the process always favours the elimination, or considerably reduces, the level of vibration experienced by the piping system. Tightening up the clearances at the supports (ideally zero gap), and adding new static supports at the system, are typical ways of increasing the natural frequency of the piping system. However, only stiffening the piping system may not be sufficient to resolve the vibration problem, and in some cases, it might not be feasible to implement it at all, as the available piping layout could create limitations on adding supports due to thermal expansion/contraction requirements. In these cases, utilization of viscous damper supports could be recommended as these devices can allow relatively large quasi-static movement of piping while providing sufficient capabilities of dissipating the vibration. Therefore, when correctly selected and installed, viscous damper supports can provide a significant effect on the response of the piping system over a wide range of frequencies. Viscous dampers cannot be used to support sustained, static loads. This paper shows over a real case example, a methodology which allows to determine the selection of the viscous damper supports via a dynamic analysis model. By implementing this methodology, it was possible to resolve the piping vibration problem throughout redesigning adequately the existing static piping supports and by adding new viscous dampers supports. This was conducted on-stream at the oil crude pipeline in question without the necessity of reducing the production of the plant. Concluding that the application of the methodology of this paper can be applied to solve similar cases in a straightforward manner.

Keywords: dynamic analysis, flow induced vibration, piping supports, turbulent flow, slug flow, viscous damper

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Authors: Aleksandra Majchrzak, Katarzyna Baruch, Monika Sobolewska, Bartlomiej Chojnacki, Adam Pilch

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Scaled modeling is very common in the areas of science such as aerodynamics or fluid mechanics, since defining characteristic numbers enables to determine relations between objects under test and their models. In acoustics, scaled modeling is aimed mainly at investigation of room acoustics, sound insulation and sound absorption phenomena. Despite such a range of application, there is no method developed that would enable scaling acoustical perforated panels freely, maintaining their sound absorption coefficient in a desired frequency range. However, conducted theoretical and numerical analyses have proven that it is not physically possible to obtain given sound absorption coefficient in a desired frequency range by directly scaling only all of the physical dimensions of a perforated panel, according to a defined characteristic number. This paper is a continuation of the research mentioned above and presents practical evaluation of theoretical and numerical analyses. The measurements of sound absorption coefficient of perforated panels were performed in order to verify previous analyses and as a result find the relations between full-scale perforated panels and their models which will enable to scale them properly. The measurements were conducted in a one-to-eight model of a reverberation chamber of Technical Acoustics Laboratory, AGH. Obtained results verify theses proposed after theoretical and numerical analyses. Finding the relations between full-scale and modeled perforated panels will allow to produce measurement samples equivalent to the original ones. As a consequence, it will make the process of designing acoustical perforated panels easier and will also lower the costs of prototypes production. Having this knowledge, it will be possible to emulate in a constructed model panels used, or to be used, in a full-scale room more precisely and as a result imitate or predict the acoustics of a modeled space more accurately.

Keywords: characteristic numbers, dimensional analysis, model study, scaled modeling, sound absorption coefficient

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Authors: Ayaka A. Matsuo, Gweyneth Victoria I. Maranan, Shawn Mikel Hobayan

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In this study, we delve into the application of mahogany fruits as biochar for soil amendment, aiming to evaluate their effectiveness in improving soil quality and influencing the growth parameters of okra plants through a comprehensive analysis employing various multivariate tests. In a more straightforward approach, our results show that biochar derived from isn't just a minor player but emerges as a key contributor to our study. This finding holds profound implications, as it highlights the material significance of biochar derived from Mahogany (Swietenia macrophylla) fruits, leaves, and branches in shaping the outcomes. The importance of this discovery lies in its contribution to an enhanced comprehension of the overall effects of biochar on the variables explored in our investigation. Notably, the positive changes observed in height, number of leaves, and width of leaves in okra plants further support the premise that the incorporation of biochar improves soil quality. These findings provide valuable insights for agricultural practices, suggesting that biochar derived from Mahogany (Swietenia macrophylla) fruits, leaves, and branches holds promise as a sustainable soil amendment with positive implications for plant growth. The statistical results from multivariate tests serve to solidify the conclusion that biochar plays a pivotal role in driving the observed outcomes in our study. In essence, this research not only sheds light on the potential of mahogany fruit-derived biochar but also emphasizes its significance in fostering healthier soil conditions and, consequently, enhanced plant growth.

Keywords: soil amendment, biochar, mahogany, soil health

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Authors: Patrizia Bonaventura, Magda Di Renzo

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This project aims to measure and assess the voice quality in children with autism. Few previous studies exist which have analyzed the voice quality of individuals with autism: abnormal voice characteristics have been found, like a high pitch, great pitch range, and sing-song quality. Existing studies did not focus specifically on Italian-speaking children’s voices and provided analysis of a few acoustic parameters. The present study aimed to gather more data and to perform acoustic analysis of the voice of children with autism in order to identify patterns of abnormal voice features that might shed some light on the causes of the dysphonia and possibly be used to create a pediatric assessment tool for early identification of autism. The participants were five native Italian-speaking boys with autism between the age of 4 years and 10 years (mean 6.8 ± SD 1.4). The children had a diagnosis of autism, were verbal, and had no other comorbid conditions (like Down syndrome or ADHD). The voices of the autistic children were recorded in the production of sustained vowels [ah] and [ih] and of sentences from the Italian version of the CAPE-V voice assessment test. The following voice parameters, representative of normal quality, were analyzed by acoustic spectrography through Praat: Speaking Fundamental Frequency, F0 range, average intensity, and dynamic range. The results showed that the pitch parameters (Speaking Fundamental Frequency and F0 range), as well as the intensity parameters (average intensity and dynamic range), were significantly different from the relative normal reference thresholds. Also, variability among children was found, so confirming a tendency revealed in previous studies of individual variation in these aspects of voice quality. The results indicate a general pattern of abnormal voice quality characterized by a high pitch and large variations in pitch and intensity. These acoustic voice characteristics found in Italian-speaking autistic children match those found in children speaking other languages, indicating that autism symptoms affecting voice quality might be independent of the native language of the children.

Keywords: autism, voice disorders, speech science, acoustic analysis of voice

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Authors: Dalvir Kataria, Khushminder Kaur Chahal, Amit Kumar

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The carrot seed essential oil was obtained by hydrodistillation. Hexane, dichloromethane, and methanol solvents were used for extraction of carrot seed by Soxhlet extraction methods. The major and minor compounds identified in carrot seed essential oil were carotol (52.73), daucol (5.10), daucene (5.68), (E)-β-farnesene (5.40), β-cubebene (3.19), longifolenaldehyde (3.23), β-elimene (3.23), (E)-caryophyllene (1.22), β-bisabolene (2.95) etc. The chemical composition of hexane, dichloromethane, and methanol extracts was different. Carotol was the common compound present. Major compounds isolated were from the carrot seed essential oil by column chromatography. Chemical transformations of carotol (2) with mercuric acetate/sodium borohydride, dry hydrochloric acid gas, acetonitrile/sulfuric acid, selenium dioxide/t-butyl hydrogen peroxide, N-bromosuccinimide, hydrogen iodide, and phenol were carried out. The derivatives of carotol were designed to explore the significance of some structural modifications in relation to antioxidant activities. The structures of major compounds and derivatives were confirmed on the basis of FT-IR, 1HNMR and 13CNMR spectroscopy. Antioxidant activity of carrot seed essential oil, various extracts and isolated compounds were tested by in vitro models involving 2, 2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH•), hydroxyl (OH•), nitric oxide (NO•), superoxide radical scavenging methods and ferric reducing antioxidant power assay (FRAP). Chemical transformations of major isolated compound carotol were carried out, and antioxidant activity of all compounds was undertaken. The major sesquiterpenoidcarotol isolated from carrot seed essential oil showed the highest antioxidant activity in all the methods. The methanol extract showed higher antioxidant potential as compared to carrot seed essential oil, hexane, and dichloromethane extracts.

Keywords: antioxidant, carotol, carrot, DPPH

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Authors: Fabricio Costa Silva, Samuel Xavier de Souza

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A Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver is responsible to determine position, velocity and timing information by using satellite information. To get this information's are necessary to combine an incoming and a locally generated signal. The procedure called acquisition need to found two information, the frequency and phase of the incoming signal. This is very time consuming, so there are several techniques to reduces the computational complexity, but each of then put projects issues in conflict. I this papers we present a method that can reduce the computational complexity by reducing the search space and paralleling the search.

Keywords: GPS, acquisition, low complexity, parallelism

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Authors: Shraddha Jain Sharma, Ratnalata Gupta

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Predicting stock movements in the financial market is both difficult and rewarding. Analysts and academics are increasingly using advanced approaches such as machine learning techniques to anticipate stock price patterns, thanks to the expanding capacity of computing and the recent advent of graphics processing units and tensor processing units. Stock market prediction is a type of time series prediction that is incredibly difficult to do since stock prices are influenced by a variety of financial, socioeconomic, and political factors. Furthermore, even minor mistakes in stock market price forecasts can result in significant losses for companies that employ the findings of stock market price prediction for financial analysis and investment. Soft computing techniques are increasingly being employed for stock market prediction due to their better accuracy than traditional statistical methodologies. The proposed research looks at the need for soft computing techniques in stock market prediction, the numerous soft computing approaches that are important to the field, past work in the area with their prominent features, and the significant problems or issue domain that the area involves. For constructing a predictive model, the major focus is on neural networks and fuzzy logic. The stock market is extremely unpredictable, and it is unquestionably tough to correctly predict based on certain characteristics. This study provides a complete overview of the numerous strategies investigated for high accuracy prediction, with a focus on the most important characteristics.

Keywords: stock market prediction, artificial intelligence, artificial neural networks, fuzzy logic, accuracy, deep learning, machine learning, stock price, trading volume

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Authors: Jackson Simon Lusagalika, Lai Hsin-Chih, Dai Yu-Tung

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Particles with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 meters or less are referred to as "fine particulate matter" (PM₂.₅) are easily inhaled and can go deeper into the lungs than other particles in the atmosphere, where it may have detrimental health consequences. In this study, we use a hybrid model that combined CMAQ and AERMOD as well as initial meteorological fields from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to study the impact of power plant PM₂.₅ emissions in South Taiwan since it frequently experiences higher PM₂.₅ levels. A specific date of March 3, 2022, was chosen as a result of a power outage that prompted the bulk of power plants to shut down. In some way, it is not conceivable anywhere in the world to turn off the power for the sole purpose of doing research. Therefore, this catastrophe involving a power outage and the shutdown of power plants offers a great occasion to evaluate the impact of air pollution driven by this power sector. As a result, four numerical experiments were conducted in the study using the Continuous Emission Data System (CEMS), assuming that the power plants continued to function normally after the power outage. The hybrid model results revealed that power plants have a minor impact in the study region. However, we examined the accumulation of PM₂.₅ in the study and discovered that once the vortex at 925hPa was established and moved to the north of Taiwan's coast, the study region experienced higher observed PM₂.₅ concentrations influenced by meteorological factors. This study recommends that decision-makers take into account not only control techniques, specifically emission reductions, but also the atmospheric and meteorological implications for future investigations.

Keywords: PM₂.₅ concentration, powerplants, hybrid air quality model, CEMS, Vorticity

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Authors: Tomasz Komornicki

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The possibilities of cross-border traffic depend on the degree of permeability of a given border as well as the state of the existing transport infrastructure. The aim of this paper is to identify the impact of economic transformation, EU accession, and infrastructure development on modal shifts in border traffic through the Polish eastern boundary. In the 1980s railway was still the main mode of cross-border transport in Poland. At the beginning of the 1990s, the role of the road and rail transborder passenger traffic was similar, but since 1993, the role of rail was decreasing. The general decline in rail infrastructure in Poland continued uninterruptedly until accession to the European Union. The slow opposite trend can be observed later as a result of the inflow of European funds. In the countries neighbouring Poland from the east, these processes took place with some delay, and the loss of railway position was not so drastic. Therefore, cross-border railway connections have been maintained for quite a long time since the break-up of the USSR. However, finally, cross-border rail transport proved to be completely inflexible in relation to both economic, geopolitical, and transport transformations. It has been shown that the current modal split of the passenger border traffic was shaped by the following factors: a) closure of many transborder railway lines, especially local ones; b) the signing of an agreement on minor border traffic with Ukraine; c) rapidly growing number of citizens of Ukraine working in Poland (unofficial transportation of workers by car directly to their workplaces in Poland); d) the emergence of low-cost air connections between Ukraine and Poland and the growing role of air transport in the Russia-Poland relationship. The summary points to the possibility of a renewed increase in the importance of rail transport on the eastern border of the European Union.

Keywords: modal change, border, rail transport, Poland

Procedia PDF Downloads 193

Authors: Abdelkhalek Bouchikhi, Elyes Benmokhtar, Sebastien Saletzki

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The aeronautical field is experiencing issues with RF spectrum congestion due to the constant increase in the number of flights, aircrafts and telecom systems on board. In addition, these systems are bulky in size, weight and energy consumption. The cognitive radio helps particularly solving the spectrum congestion issue by its capacity to detect idle frequency channels then, allowing an opportunistic exploitation of the RF spectrum. The present work aims to propose a new use case for aeronautical spectrum sharing and to study the performances of three different detection techniques: energy detector, matched filter and cyclostationary detector within the aeronautical use case. The spectrum in the proposed cognitive radio is allocated dynamically where each cognitive radio follows a cognitive cycle. The spectrum sensing is a crucial step. The goal of the sensing is gathering data about the surrounding environment. Cognitive radio can use different sensors: antennas, cameras, accelerometer, thermometer, etc. In IEEE 802.22 standard, for example, a primary user (PU) has always the priority to communicate. When a frequency channel witch used by the primary user is idle, the secondary user (SU) is allowed to transmit in this channel. The Distance Measuring Equipment (DME) is composed of a UHF transmitter/receiver (interrogator) in the aircraft and a UHF receiver/transmitter on the ground. While the future cognitive radio will be used jointly to alleviate the spectrum congestion issue in the aeronautical field. LDACS, for example, is a good candidate; it provides two isolated data-links: ground-to-air and air-to-ground data-links. The first contribution of the present work is a strategy allowing sharing the L-band. The adopted spectrum sharing strategy is as follow: the DME will play the role of PU which is the licensed user and the LDACS1 systems will be the SUs. The SUs could use the L-band channels opportunely as long as they do not causing harmful interference signals which affect the QoS of the DME system. Although the spectrum sensing is a key step, it helps detecting holes by determining whether the primary signal is present or not in a given frequency channel. A missing detection on primary user presence creates interference between PU and SU and will affect seriously the QoS of the legacy radio. In this study, first brief definitions, concepts and the state of the art of cognitive radio will be presented. Then, a study of three communication channel detection algorithms in a cognitive radio context is carried out. The study is made from the point of view of functions, material requirements and signal detection capability in the aeronautical field. Then, we presented a modeling of the detection problem by three different methods (energy, adapted filter, and cyclostationary) as well as an algorithmic description of these detectors is done. Then, we study and compare the performance of the algorithms. Simulations were carried out using MATLAB software. We analyzed the results based on ROCs curves for SNR between -10dB and 20dB. The three detectors have been tested with a synthetics and real world signals.

Keywords: aeronautic, communication, navigation, surveillance systems, cognitive radio, spectrum sensing, software defined radio

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Authors: Rodlyn Remina Hines

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Males and Females respond differently to life situations, including transnational living. Being in a transnational marriage relationship may put a strain on the relationship requiring partners to adjust their behaviors and expectancies of the other partner to accommodate the disruptions in the relationship. More so, when one partner is an immigrant to a new geographic location with the other in the native country, these disruptions may be intensive. This qualitative study examined gender differences in how married Ghanaian couples respond to making a life together as a couple while living across international borders. The study asked two questions: (1) What are the perceptions of males and females on transnational living? and (2) how do married males and females respond to transnational living situations? To answer these questions, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 24 married couples- with one partner living in the United States (U.S.) and the other spouse in Ghana via purposive and snowball sampling techniques. Participants were aged 26 to 59 years with an average age of 40; the average age of relationship: 10.41; and average years of living apart: 6.7. Induction and deduction hybrid analysis strategies were used to derive emerging themes. The results highlight significant gender differences in response to transnational living status and practices. The data indicate that transnational couples with the male spouse residing in the U.S. experience more relationship strains than is the case when the female partner is the immigrant. Three couples who were in divorce proceedings at the time of the interview had the male partner residing in the U.S. and the female spouse in Ghana. These gender differences also reflected spousal visitation frequency, duration of spousal reunification, amount of and frequency of spousal remittance(s), and immigration processing procedures. Finally, the data show female immigrant partners as better managers of transnational living stresses and strains than their male counterparts. Findings from this study have implications for marriage and family practitioners and immigration policy makers.

Keywords: gender differences, , ghanaian couples, ghanaian immigrants, transnational living

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Authors: Shizrah Jamal, Robia Ghafoor, Farhan Raza

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Porcelain fused to metal crown is the most versatile variety of crown that is commonly placed worldwide. Various complications have been reported in the PFM crowns with use over the period of time. These include chipping of the porcelain, recurrent caries, loss of retention, open contacts, and tooth fracture. The objective of the present study was to determine the frequency of these complications in crowns cemented over a period of five years in a tertiary care hospital and also to report the survival of these crowns. A retrospective study was conducted in Dental clinics, Aga Khan University Hospital in which 150 PFM crowns cemented over a period of five years were evaluated. Patient demographics, oral hygiene habits, para-functional habits, crown insertion and follow-up dates were recorded in a specially designed proforma. All PFM crowns fulfilling the inclusion criteria were assessed both clinically and radiographically for the presence of any complication. SPSS version 22.0 was used for statistical analysis. Frequency distribution and proportion of complications were determined. Chi-square test was used to determine the association of complications of PFM crowns with multiple variables including tooth wear, opposing dentition and betel nut chewing. Kaplan- meier survival analysis was used to determine the survival of PFM crowns over the period of five years. Level of significance was kept at 0.05. A total of 107 patients, with a mean age of 43.51 + 12.4 years, having 150 PFM crowns were evaluated. The most common complication observed was open proximal contacts (8.7%) followed by porcelain chipping (6%), decementation (5.3%), and abutment fracture (1.3%). Chi square test showed that there was no statistically significant association of PFM crown complication with tooth wear, betel nut and opposing dentition (p-value <0.05). The overall success and survival rates of PFM crowns turned out to be 78.7 and 84.7% respectively. Within the limitations of the study, it can be concluded that PFM crowns are an effective treatment modality with high success and survival rates. Since it was a single centered study; the results should be generalized with caution.

Keywords: chipping, complication, crown, survival rate

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Authors: Franziska Klauser, Manuel Schwabl, Alexander Weissinger, Christoph Schmidl, Walter Haslinger, Anne Kasper-Giebl

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Benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) is the most widely investigated representative of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAH) as well as one of the most toxic compounds in this group. Since 2013 in the European Union a limit value for BaP concentration in the ambient air is applied, which was set to a yearly average value of 1 ng m-3. Several reports show that in some regions, even where industry and traffic are of minor impact this threshold is regularly exceeded. This is taken as proof that biomass combustion for heating purposes contributes significantly to BaP pollution. Several investigations have been already carried out on the BaP emission behavior of biomass combustion furnaces, mostly focusing on a certain aspect like the influences from wood type, of operation type or of technology type. However, a superior view on emission patterns of BaP from biomass combustion and the aggregation of determined values also from recent studies is not presented so far. The combination of determined values allows a better understanding of the BaP emission behavior from biomass combustion. In this work the review conclusions are driven from the combination of outcomes from different publication. In two examples it was shown that technical progress leads to 10 to 100 fold lower BaP emission from modern furnaces compared to old technologies of equivalent type. It was also indicated that the operation with pellets or wood chips exhibits clearly lower BaP emission factors compared to operation with log wood. Although, the BaP emission level from automatic furnaces is strongly impacted by the kind of operation. This work delivers an overview on BaP emission factors from different biomass combustion appliances, from different operation modes and from the combustion of different fuel and wood types. The main impact factors are depicted, and suggestions for low BaP emission biomass combustion are derived. As one result possible investigation fields concerning BaP emissions from biomass combustion that seem to be most important to be clarified are suggested.

Keywords: benzo(a)pyrene, biomass, combustion, emission, pollution

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Authors: Carmen E. Pérez-Donado, Fernando Pérez-Muñoz, Rosa N. Chávez-Jáuregui

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Plantain contains starch as the majority component and represents a relevant source of this carbohydrate. Starches from different cultivars of plantain and bananas have been studied for industrialization purposes due to their morphological and thermal characteristics and their influence on food products. This study aimed to characterize the physical, chemical, and thermal properties of starch from three different plantains cultivated in Puerto Rico: Maricongo, Maiden, and FHIA 20. Amylose and amylopectin content, color, granular size, morphology, and thermal properties were determined. According to the content of amylose in starches, FHIA 20 starch presented minor content of the three cultivars studied. In terms of color, Maiden and FHIA 20 starch exhibited a significantly higher whiteness index comparing their values with Maricongo starch. The starches of the three cultivars had an elongated-ovoid morphology, with a smooth surface and a non-porous appearance. Regardless of similarities in their morphology, FHIA 20 showed a lower aspect ratio, which meant that their granules tended to be more elongated granules. Comparing the thermal properties of starches, it was found that the initial gelatinization temperature of the starch of the cultivars was similar. However, the final gelatinization temperatures of the starches belonging to the cultivars Maricongo (79.69°C) and Maiden (77.40°C) were similar, whereas FHIA 20 starch presented a noticeably higher final gelatinization temperature (87.95°C) and transition enthalpy. Despite source similarities, starches from plantain cultivars showed differences in their composition and thermal behavior. Therefore, this represents an opportunity to diversify their use in food-related applications.

Keywords: aspect ratio, morphology, Musa spp., starch, thermal properties

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Authors: E. S. Manuylovich, V. A. Astapenko, P. A. Golovinsky

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The dispersion relation binding the constant of propagation and frequency is calculated for silver cone. The evolution of the electric field of ultrashort pulse during its propagation in conical structure is considered. Increasing of electric field during pulse propagation to the top of the cone is observed. Reduction of the pulse duration at a certain distance is observed. The dependence of minimum pulse duration on initial chirp and cone angle is investigated.

Keywords: ultrashort pulses, surface plasmon polariton, dispersion, silver cone

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Authors: Adel Salem Bahakeem, Ahmad Jamal, Mir Md. Maruf Morshed, Elwaleed Awad Khidir

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Direct Current (DC) servo motors, or simply DC motors, play an important role in many industrial applications such as manufacturing of plastics, precise positioning of the equipment, and operating computer-controlled systems where speed of feed control, maintaining the position, and ensuring to have a constantly desired output is very critical. These parameters can be controlled with the help of control systems such as the Proportional Integral Derivative (PID) controller. The aim of the current work is to investigate the effects of Proportional (P) and Integral (I) controllers on the steady state and transient response of the DC motor. The controller gains are varied to observe their effects on the error, damping, and stability of the steady and transient motor response. The current investigation is conducted experimentally on a servo trainer CE 110 using analog PI controller CE 120 and theoretically using Simulink in MATLAB. Both experimental and theoretical work involves varying integral controller gain to obtain the response to a steady-state input, varying, individually, the proportional and integral controller gains to obtain the response to a step input function at a certain frequency, and theoretically obtaining the proportional and integral controller gains for desired values of damping ratio and response frequency. Results reveal that a proportional controller helps reduce the steady-state and transient error between the input signal and output response and makes the system more stable. In addition, it also speeds up the response of the system. On the other hand, the integral controller eliminates the error but tends to make the system unstable with induced oscillations and slow response to eliminate the error. From the current work, it is desired to achieve a stable response of the servo motor in terms of its angular velocity subjected to steady-state and transient input signals by utilizing the strengths of both P and I controllers.

Keywords: DC servo motor, proportional controller, integral controller, controller gain optimization, Simulink

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Authors: Sajjad Jafari

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Background and Aim: The use of herbal medicines has a long history. Today, due to the resistance of microorganisms to antibiotics and antimicrobial substances, herbal medicines have attracted attention due to their significant antimicrobial effects and low toxicity. This study aims to systematically review the antimicrobial effects of different plant extracts (Quercus infectoria) as possible candidates for treating infectious diseases. Material and Methods: The present study is a review study by searching reputable scientific databases such as PubMed, Google Scholar, Scopus, and Web of Science from 2000 to 2023 using the keywords Antimicrobial, Quercus infectoria, Medicinal herbal, Infectious diseases the latest information obtained. Results: In this study, 45 articles were found and reviewed. Quercus infectoria is a small tree native to Greece, Asia Minor, and Iran. Quercus is a plant genus in the family of Fagaceae. This species is generally known under the name ‘‘baloot” in Iran and is commonly used as a medicinal plant. The extracts used included water, hydro-alcoholic, ethanol, methanol. This plant had high inhibition activity and a lethal effect on gram-positive and gram-negative bacteria of ATCC strains, hospital, and resistant strains. Therefore, in addition to antibacterial effects, antiparasitic and antifungal effects. The seed of the plant was the most used and the most effective antimicrobial extract among the ethanol and methanol extracts. Conclusion: The findings of this study suggest that Quercus infectoria has significant antimicrobial effects against a wide range of microorganisms. This makes it a potential candidate for the development of new antimicrobial drugs. Further research is needed to confirm the efficacy and safety of Quercus infectoria in clinical trials.

Keywords: antimicrobial, Quercus infectoria, medicinal herbal, infectious diseases

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Authors: Mengjia Zhi, Xingmei Wei, Xiang Gao, Shiyang Liu, Zhiran Huang, Li Yang, Jing Sun

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Background: To understand the consumption trend of opioid analgesics and the consumption adequacy of opioid analgesic treatment for moderate to severe pain in China, as well as the pain control level of China with international perspective. Importance: To author’s best knowledge, this is the first study in China to measure the adequacy of opioid analgesic treatment for moderate to severe pain considering disease pattern and with the standardized pain treatment guideline. Methods: A retrospective analysis was carried out to show the consumption frequency (daily defined doses, DDDs) of opioid analgesics and its trend in China from 2006 to 2016. Adequacy of consumption measure (ACM) was used to measure the number of needed morphine equivalents and the overall adequacy of opioid analgesic treatment of moderate to severe pain in China, and compared with international data. Results: The consumption frequency of opioid analgesics (DDDs) in China increased from 13,200,000 DDDs in 2006 to 44,200,000 DDDs in 2016, and showed an increasing trend. The growth rate was faster at first, especially in 2013, then slowed down, decreased slightly in 2015. The ACM of China increased from 0.0032 in 2006 to 0.0074 in 2016, with an overall trend of growth. The ACM level of China has been always a very poor level during 2006-2016. Conclusion: The consumption of opioid analgesics for the treatment of moderate to severe pain in China has always been inadequate. There is a huge gap between China and the international level. There are many reasons behind this problem, which lie in different aspects, including medical staff, patients and the public, health systems and social & cultural aspects. It is necessary to strengthen the training and education of medical staff and the patients, to use mass media to disseminate scientific knowledge of pain management, to encourage communications between doctors and patients, to improve regulatory system for the controlled medicines and the overall health systems, and to balance the regulatory goal for avoidance of abuse, and the social goal of meeting the increasing needs of the people for better life.

Keywords: opioid analgesics, adequate consumption measure, pain control, China

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Authors: Othman E. Othman, Amira M. Nowier, Medhat El-Denary

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Camels play an important socio-economic role within the pastoral and agricultural system in the dry and semidry zones of Asia and Africa. Camels are economically important animals in Egypt where they are dual purpose animals (meat and milk). The analysis of chemical composition of camel milk showed that the total protein contents ranged from 2.4% to 5.3% and it is divided into casein and whey proteins. The casein fraction constitutes 52% to 89% of total camel milk protein and it divided into 4 fractions namely αs1, αs2, β and κ-caseins which are encoded by four tightly genes. In spite of the important role of casein genes and the effects of their genetic polymorphisms on quantitative traits and technological properties of milk, the studies for the detection of genetic polymorphism of camel milk genes are still limited. Due to this fact, this work focused - using PCR-RFP and sequencing analysis - on the identification of genetic polymorphisms and SNPs of two casein genes in Maghrabi camel breed which is a dual purpose camel breed in Egypt. The amplified fragments at 488-bp of the camel κ-CN gene were digested with AluI endonuclease. The results showed the appearance of three different genotypes in the tested animals; CC with three digested fragments at 203-, 127- and 120-bp, TT with three digested fragments at 203-, 158- and 127-bp and CT with four digested fragments at 203-, 158-, 127- and 120-bp. The frequencies of three detected genotypes were 11.0% for CC, 48.0% for TT and 41.0% for CT genotypes. The sequencing analysis of the two different alleles declared the presence of a single nucleotide polymorphism (C→T) at position 121 in the amplified fragments which is responsible for the destruction of a restriction site (AG/CT) in allele T and resulted in the presence of two different alleles C and T in tested animals. The nucleotide sequences of κ-CN alleles C and T were submitted to GenBank with the accession numbers; KU055605 and KU055606, respectively. The primers used in this study amplified 942-bp fragments spanning from exon 4 to exon 6 of camel αS1-Casein gene. The amplified fragments were digested with two different restriction enzymes; SmlI and AluI. The results of SmlI digestion did not show any restriction site whereas the digestion with AluI endonuclease revealed the presence of two restriction sites AG^CT at positions 68^69 and 631^632 yielding the presence of three digested fragments with sizes 68-, 563- and 293-bp.The nucleotide sequences of this fragment from camel αS1-Casein gene were submitted to GenBank with the accession number KU145820. In conclusion, the genetic characterization of quantitative traits genes which are associated with the production traits like milk yield and composition is considered an important step towards the genetic improvement of livestock species through the selection of superior animals depending on the favorable alleles and genotypes; marker assisted selection (MAS).

Keywords: genetic polymorphism, SNP polymorphism, Maghrabi camels, κ-Casein gene, αS1-Casein gene

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Authors: Aamna Lawrence, Ashutosh Mishra

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Tremors occur in 60% of the patients who have Multiple Sclerosis (MS), the most common demyelinating disease that affects the central and peripheral nervous system, and are the primary cause of disability in young adults. While pharmacological agents provide minimal benefits, surgical interventions like Deep Brain Stimulation and Thalamotomy are riddled with dangerous complications which make non-invasive electrical stimulation an appealing treatment of choice for dealing with tremors. Hence, we hypothesized that if the non-invasive electrical stimulation parameters (mainly frequency) can be computed by mathematically modeling the nerve fibre to take into consideration the minutest details of the axon morphologies, tremors due to demyelination can be optimally alleviated. In this computational study, we have modeled the random demyelination pattern in a nerve fibre that typically manifests in MS using the High-Density Hodgkin-Huxley model with suitable modifications to account for the myelin. The internode of the nerve fibre in our model could have up to ten demyelinated regions each having random length and myelin thickness. The arrival time of action potentials traveling the demyelinated and the normally myelinated nerve fibre between two fixed points in space was noted, and its relationship with the nerve fibre radius ranging from 5µm to 12µm was analyzed. It was interesting to note that there were no overlaps between the arrival time for action potentials traversing the demyelinated and normally myelinated nerve fibres even when a single internode of the nerve fibre was demyelinated. The study gave us an opportunity to design DC pulses whose frequency of application would be a function of the random demyelination pattern to block only the delayed tremor-causing action potentials. The DC pulses could be delivered to the peripheral nervous system non-invasively by an electrode bracelet that would suppress any shakiness beyond it thus paving the way for wearable neuro-rehabilitative technologies.

Keywords: demyelination, Hodgkin-Huxley model, non-invasive electrical stimulation, tremor

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Authors: Montree Bunruanses, Preecha Yupapin

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In this work, the quantum material called Amrita (elixir) is made from top-down gold into nanometer particles by fusing 99% gold with a laser and mixing it with drinking water using the atmospheric water (AWG) production system, which is made of water with air. The high energy laser power destroyed the four natural force bindings from gravity-weak-electromagnetic and strong coupling forces, where finally it was the purified Bose-Einstein condensate (BEC) states. With this method, gold atoms in the form of spherical single crystals with a diameter of 30-50 nanometers are obtained and used. They were modulated (activated) with a frequency generator into various matrix structures mixed with AWG water to be used in the upstream conversion (quantum reversible) process, which can be applied on humans both internally or externally by drinking or applying on the treated surfaces. Doing both space (body) and time (mind) will go back to the origin and start again from the coupling of space-time on both sides of time at fusion (strong coupling force) and push out (Big Bang) at the equilibrium point (singularity) occurs as strings and DNA with neutrinos as coupling energy. There is no distortion (purification), which is the point where time and space have not yet been determined, and there is infinite energy. Therefore, the upstream conversion is performed. It is reforming DNA to make it be purified. The use of Amrita is a method used for people who cannot meditate (quantum meditation). Various cases were applied, where the results show that the Amrita can make the body and the mind return to their pure origins and begin the downstream process with the Big Bang movement, quantum communication in all dimensions, DNA reformation, frequency filtering, crystal body forming, broadband quantum communication networks, black hole forming, quantum consciousness, body and mind healing, etc.

Keywords: quantum materials, quantum meditation, quantum reversible, Bose-Einstein condensate

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Authors: Shahid Hussain Abro, Siamak Zohari, Lena H. M. Renström, Désirée S. Jansson, Faruk Otman, Karin Ullman, Claudia Baule

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Infectious bronchitis is an acute, highly contagious respiratory, nephropathogenic and reproductive disease of poultry that is caused by infectious bronchitis virus (IBV). The present study used a large data set of structural gene sequences, including newly generated ones and sequences available in the GenBank database to further analyze the diversity and to identify selective pressures and recombination spots. There were some deletions or insertions in the analyzed regions in isolates of the Italy-02 and D274 genotypes. Whereas, there were no insertions or deletions observed in the isolates of the Massachusetts and 4/91 genotype. The hypervariable nucleotide sequence regions spanned positions 152–239, 554–582, 686–737 and 802–912 in the S1 sub-unit of the all analyzed genotypes. The nucleotide sequence data of the E gene showed that this gene was comparatively unstable and subjected to a high frequency of mutations. The M gene showed substitutions consistently distributed except for a region between nucleotide positions 250–680 that remained conserved. The lowest variation in the nucleotide sequences of ORF5a was observed in the isolates of the D274 genotype. While, ORF5b and N gene sequences showed highly conserved regions and were less subjected to variation. Genes ORF3a, ORF3b, M, ORF5a, ORF5b and N presented negative selective pressure among the analyzed isolates. However, some regions of the ORFs showed favorable selective pressure(s). The S1 and E proteins were subjected to a high rate of mutational substitutions and non-synonymous amino acids. Strong signals of recombination breakpoints and ending break point were observed in the S and N genes. Overall, the results of this study revealed that very likely the strong selective pressures in E, M and the high frequency of substitutions in the S gene can probably be considered the main determinants in the evolution of IBV.

Keywords: IBV, avian infectious bronchitis, structural genes, genotypes, genetic diversity

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Authors: Taslim Khan, Ray Hua Horng, Rajendra Singh

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This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the design, fabrication, and performance evaluation of a solar-blind Schottky photodetector based on ZnGa₂O₄ grown via MOCVD, utilizing Ni/Au as the Schottky electrode. ZnGa₂O₄, with its wide bandgap of 5.2 eV, is well-suited for high-performance solar-blind photodetection applications. The photodetector demonstrates an impressive responsivity of 280 A/W, indicating its exceptional sensitivity within the solar-blind ultraviolet band. One of the device's notable attributes is its high rejection ratio of 10⁵, which effectively filters out unwanted background signals, enhancing its reliability in various environments. The photodetector also boasts a photodetector responsivity contrast ratio (PDCR) of 10⁷, showcasing its ability to detect even minor changes in incident UV light. Additionally, the device features an outstanding detective of 10¹⁸ Jones, underscoring its capability to precisely detect faint UV signals. It exhibits a fast response time of 80 ms and an ON/OFF ratio of 10⁵, making it suitable for real-time UV sensing applications. The noise-equivalent power (NEP) of 10^-17 W/Hz further highlights its efficiency in detecting low-intensity UV signals. The photodetector also achieves a high forward-to-backward current rejection ratio of 10⁶, ensuring high selectivity. Furthermore, the device maintains an extremely low dark current of approximately 0.1 pA. These findings position the ZnGa₂O₄-based Schottky photodetector as a leading candidate for solar-blind UV detection applications. It offers a compelling combination of sensitivity, selectivity, and operational efficiency, making it a highly promising tool for environments requiring precise and reliable UV detection.

Keywords: wideband gap, solar blind photodetector, MOCVD, zinc gallate

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Authors: Eric Beyegue, Boris Azantza, Judith Laure Ngondi, Julius E. Oben

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Background: Dietary supplement may potentially help to fight obesity and other metabolic disorders such as adipogenesis, insulin resistance, and inflammation. The present study aimed to test whether supplementation with African walnuts (Aw) could have an effect on adipogenesis and others dysfunctions associated with obesity in rats. Methods: Wistar rats were fed with standard diet (SD) or high-fat high-sucrose diet (HFS) and HFS with supplemented (HFS-Aw) for eight weeks. Results: HFS diet-induced body weight gain and increased fat mass compared to SD. In addition HFS-fed rats developed fasting hyperglycaemia and insulinaemia as well as insulin resistance. Aw supplementation in HFS rats had a protective effect against adipose tissues weigh gain but slightly against body weight gain and major study related disorders. This could be mainly due to decreased food intake dependently of effect in food intake in central nervous system, which decreased in HFS rats supplemented with African walnut compared to the HFS-diet group. Interestingly, African walnut supplementation induced a slight decrease of fasting glycaemia, insulinaemia and Nitric Oxide which could partially explain its minor protective effect against diet-induced insulin resistance. Additionally a decrease in hepatic TG and transaminases levels suggesting a protective effect against liver injury. Conclusion: Taken together these data suggested that supplementation of African walnut could be used to prevent adipose weight gain and related disorders on the other hand, minimally reduced insulin resistance.

Keywords: African walnut, dietary fiber, insulin resistance, oxidative stress

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Authors: Afshan Channa, Sameeha Aleem, Harim Mohsin

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First rank symptoms (FRS) are considered to be pathognomic for Schizophrenia. However, FRS is not a distinctive feature of Schizophrenia. It has also been noticed in affective disorder, albeit not inclusive in diagnostic criteria. The presence of FRS in Mania leads to misdiagnosis of psychotic illness, further complicating the management and delay of appropriate treatment. FRS in Mania is associated with poor clinical and functional outcome. Its existence in the first episode of bipolar disorder may be a predictor of poor short-term outcome and decompensating course of illness. FRS in Mania is studied in west. However, the cultural divergence and detriments make it pertinent to study the frequency of FRS in affective disorder independently in Pakistan. Objective: The frequency of first rank symptoms in manic patients, who were under treatment at psychiatric services of tertiary care hospital. Method: The cross sectional study was done at psychiatric services of Aga Khan University Hospital, Karachi, Pakistan. One hundred and twenty manic patients were recruited from November 2014 to May 2015. The patients who were unable to comprehend Urdu or had comorbid psychiatric or organic disorder were excluded. FRS was assessed by administration of validated Urdu version of Present State Examination (PSE) tool. Result: The mean age of the patients was 37.62 + 12.51. The mean number of previous manic episode was 2.17 + 2.23. 11.2% males and 30.6% females had FRS. This association of first rank symptoms with gender in patients of mania was found to be significant with a p-value of 0.008. All-inclusive, 19.2% exhibited FRS in their course of illness. 43.5% had thought broadcasting, made feeling, impulses, action and somatic passivity. 39.1% had thought insertion, 30.4% had auditory perceptual distortion, and 17.4% had thought withdrawal. However, none displayed delusional perception. Conclusion: The study confirms the presence of FRS in mania in both male and female, irrespective of the duration of current manic illness or previous number of manic episodes. A substantial difference was established between both the genders. Being married had no protective effect on the presence of FRS.

Keywords: first rank symptoms, Mania, psychosis, present state examination

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Authors: Fang Liu, JunShuai Xue, JiaJia Yao, XueYan Yang, ZuMao Li, GuanLin Wu, HePeng Zhang, ZhiPeng Sun

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III-Nitride resonant tunneling diode (RTD) is one of the most promising candidates for multiple-valued logic (MVL) elements. Here, we report a monolithic integration of GaN resonant tunneling diodes to realize multiple negative differential resistance (NDR) regions for MVL application. GaN RTDs, composed of a 2 nm quantum well embedded in two 1 nm quantum barriers, are grown by plasma-assisted molecular beam epitaxy on free-standing c-plane GaN substrates. Negative differential resistance characteristic with a peak current density of 178 kA/cm² in conjunction with a peak-to-valley current ratio (PVCR) of 2.07 is observed. Statistical properties exhibit high consistency showing a peak current density standard deviation of almost 1%, laying the foundation for the monolithic integration. After complete electrical isolation, two diodes of the designed same area are connected in series. By solving the Poisson equation and Schrodinger equation in one dimension, the energy band structure is calculated to explain the transport mechanism of the differential negative resistance phenomenon. Resonant tunneling events in a sequence of the series-connected RTD pair (SCRTD) form multiple NDR regions with nearly equal peak current, obtaining three stable operating states corresponding to ternary logic. A frequency multiplier circuit achieved using this integration is demonstrated, attesting to the robustness of this multiple peaks feature. This article presents a monolithic integration of SCRTD with multiple NDR regions driven by the resonant tunneling mechanism, which can be applied to a multiple-valued logic field, promising a fast operation speed and a great reduction of circuit complexity and demonstrating a new solution for nitride devices to break through the limitations of binary logic.

Keywords: GaN resonant tunneling diode, multiple-valued logic system, frequency multiplier, negative differential resistance, peak-to-valley current ratio

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Authors: Monika Saha, A. T. M. Hasan Zobeyer, Nasreen Jahan

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El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the interaction between atmosphere and ocean in tropical Pacific which causes inconsistent warm/cold weather in tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Due to the impact of climate change, ENSO events are becoming stronger in recent times, and therefore it is very important to study the influence of ENSO in climate studies. Bangladesh, being in the low-lying deltaic floodplain, experiences the worst consequences due to flooding every year. To reduce the catastrophe of severe flooding events, non-structural measures such as flood forecasting can be helpful in taking adequate precautions and steps. Forecasting seasonal flood with a longer lead time of several months is a key component of flood damage control and water management. The objective of this research is to identify the possible strength of teleconnection between ENSO and river flow of Surma and examine the potential possibility of long lead flood forecasting in the wet season. Surma is one of the major rivers of Bangladesh and is a part of the Surma-Meghna river system. In this research, sea surface temperature (SST) has been considered as the ENSO index and the lead time is at least a few months which is greater than the basin response time. The teleconnection has been assessed by the correlation analysis between July-August-September (JAS) flow of Surma and SST of Nino 4 region of the corresponding months. Cumulative frequency distribution of standardized JAS flow of Surma has also been determined as part of assessing the possible teleconnection. Discharge data of Surma river from 1975 to 2015 is used in this analysis, and remarkable increased value of correlation coefficient between flow and ENSO has been observed from 1985. From the cumulative frequency distribution of the standardized JAS flow, it has been marked that in any year the JAS flow has approximately 50% probability of exceeding the long-term average JAS flow. During El Nino year (warm episode of ENSO) this probability of exceedance drops to 23% and while in La Nina year (cold episode of ENSO) it increases to 78%. Discriminant analysis which is known as 'Categoric Prediction' has been performed to identify the possibilities of long lead flood forecasting. It has helped to categorize the flow data (high, average and low) based on the classification of predicted SST (warm, normal and cold). From the discriminant analysis, it has been found that for Surma river, the probability of a high flood in the cold period is 75% and the probability of a low flood in the warm period is 33%. A synoptic parameter, forecasting index (FI) has also been calculated here to judge the forecast skill and to compare different forecasts. This study will help the concerned authorities and the stakeholders to take long-term water resources decisions and formulate policies on river basin management which will reduce possible damage of life, agriculture, and property.

Keywords: El Nino-Southern Oscillation, sea surface temperature, surma river, teleconnection, cumulative frequency distribution, discriminant analysis, forecasting index

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