Search results for: dynamic conditional correlation

Authors: Shan Li, Qiuwen Ma

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Integrated project delivery (IPD) is a project delivery method distinguished by a shared risk/rewards mechanism and multiparty agreement. IPD has drawn increasing attention from construction industry due to its reliability to deliver high-performing buildings. However, unavailable IPD specific insurance concerns the industry participants who are interested in IPD implementation. Even though the risk management capability can be enhanced using shared risk mechanism, some risks may occur when the partners do not commit themselves into the integrated practices in a desired manner. This is because the intense collaboration and close integration can not only create added value but bring new opportunistic behaviors and disputes. The study is aimed to investigate the risks of implementing IPD using Bayesian theory. IPD risk taxonomy is presented to identify all potential risks of implementing IPD and a risk network map is developed to capture the interdependencies between IPD risks. The conditional relations between risk occurrences and the impacts of IPD risks on project performances are evaluated and simulated based on Bayesian theory. The probability of project outcomes is predicted by simulation. In addition, it is found that some risks caused by integration are most possible occurred risks. This study can help the IPD project participants identify critical risks of adopting IPD to improve project performances. In addition, it is helpful to develop IPD specific insurance when the pertinent risks can be identified.

Keywords: Bayesian theory, integrated project delivery, project risks, project performances

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Authors: Mohammad Abedi Sh. Khodamoradi

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The main aim of this research is to assess effective factors on citizens’ participations in plants clinics. Statistical society includes 153 citizens of region 15 of Tehran municipality, which in first six months of 2015 participated in educational classes held by Plant education center of Pardis and Pamchal Park located in region no.15. Sample size was calculated by Cochran formula and 10% was added to sample size in order to prevent probable problems and the final sample was n=124. Validity of questionnaire was calculated by professors of extension and education group in Oloom Tahghighat university of Tehran and reliability was 0.82 which was reported by editors. Data then was analyzed by SPSS software, and frequency table, comparing mean and correlation and regression also were assessed. Correlation was proved between age, type of activity and participation extent in plant clinics. Also participation would be increased in plant clinics due to positive and significant relation between educational factors and participation extent with improving educational factors. Moreover, there is inverse relation between literacy level and participation in level of 5%. Finally, regression analysis was used in order to predict each change which independent variable determines for dependent one.

Keywords: plants clinics, participations, Tehran, Iran

Procedia PDF Downloads 226

Authors: Xudong He, Jian Wang, Jiqiang Liu, Lei Han, Yang Yu, Shaohua Lv

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Nowadays, the threats of the internet are enormous and increasing; however, the classification of huge alert messages generated in this environment is relatively monotonous. It affects the accuracy of the network situation assessment, and also brings inconvenience to the security managers to deal with the emergency. In order to deal with potential network threats effectively and provide more effective data to improve the network situation awareness. It is essential to build a hierarchical filtering method to prevent the threats. In this paper, it establishes a model for data monitoring, which can filter systematically from the original data to get the grade of threats and be stored for using again. Firstly, it filters the vulnerable resources, open ports of host devices and services. Then use the entropy theory to calculate the performance changes of the host devices at the time of the threat occurring and filter again. At last, sort the changes of the performance value at the time of threat occurring. Use the alerts and performance data collected in the real network environment to evaluate and analyze. The comparative experimental analysis shows that the threat filtering method can effectively filter the threat alerts effectively.

Keywords: correlation analysis, hierarchical filtering, multisource data, network security

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Authors: Alakija Temitope Olufunmilayo, Akinyemi, Yagba Joy

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Hepatitis is the inflammation of the liver tissue that can cause whiteness of the eyes (Jaundice), lack of appetite, vomiting, tiredness, abdominal pain, diarrhea. Hepatitis is acute if it resolves within 6 months and chronic if it last longer than 6 months. Acute hepatitis can resolve on its own, lead to chronic hepatitis or rarely result in acute liver failure. Chronic hepatitis may lead to scarring of the liver (Cirrhosis), liver failure and liver cancer. Modelling Hepatitis B may become necessary in order to reduce its spread. So, dynamic SIR model can be used. This model consists of a system of three coupled non-linear ordinary differential equation which does not have an explicit formula solution. It is an epidemiological model used to predict the dynamics of infectious disease by categorizing the population into three possible compartments. In this study, a five-compartment dynamic model of Hepatitis B disease was proposed and developed by adding control measure of sensitizing the public called awareness. All the mathematical and statistical formulation of the model, especially the general equilibrium of the model, was derived, including the nonlinear least square estimators. The initial parameters of the model were derived using nonlinear least square embedded in R code. The result study shows that the proportion of Hepatitis B patient in the study population is 1.4 per 1,000,000 populations. The estimated Hepatitis B induced death rate is 0.0108, meaning that 1.08% of the infected individuals die of the disease. The reproduction number of Hepatitis B diseases in Nigeria is 6.0, meaning that one individual can infect more than 6.0 people. The effect of sensitizing the public on the basic reproduction number is significant as the reproduction number is reduced. The study therefore recommends that programme should be designed by government and non-governmental organization to sensitize the entire Nigeria population in order to reduce cases of Hepatitis B disease among the citizens.

Keywords: hepatitis B, modelling, non-linear ordinary differential equation, sihar model, sensitization

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Authors: Denis V. Shutin, Alexander Yu. Babin, Leonid A. Savin

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One of the ways of reducing vibroactivity of rotor systems is to apply active hybrid bearings. Their design allows correction of the rotor’s location by means of separately controlling the supply pressure of the lubricant into the friction area. In a most simple case, the control system is based on a P-regulator. Increase of the gain coefficient allows decreasing the amplitude of rotor’s vibrations. The same effect can be achieved by means of increasing the pressure in the collector of a traditional passive hybrid bearing. However, these approaches affect the dynamic characteristics of the bearing differently. Theoretical studies show that the increase of the gain coefficient of an active bearing increases the stiffness of the bearing, as well as the increase of the pressure in the collector. Nevertheless, in case of a passive bearing, the damping properties deteriorate, whereas the active hybrid bearings obtain higher damping properties, which allow effectively providing the energy dissipation of the rotor vibrations and reducing the load on the constructional elements of a machine.

Keywords: active bearings, control system, damping, hybrid bearings, stiffness

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Authors: Fernanda Conforto de Oliveira

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has a central role in global financial governance as the world’s leading crisis lender. Its practice of conditional lending – conditioning loans on the implementation of economic policy adjustments – is the primary lever by which the institution interacts with and influences the policy choices of member countries and has been a key topic of interest to scholars and public opinion. However, empirical evidence about the economic and (geo)political determinants of IMF lending behavior remains inconclusive, and no model that explains IMF policies has been identified. This research moves beyond panel analysis to focus on financial negotiations for the first IMF programs in Argentina and Brazil in the early post-war period. It seeks to understand why negotiations achieved distinct objectives: Argentinean officials cooperated and complied with IMF policies, whereas their Brazilian counterparts hesitated. Using qualitative and automated text analysis, this paper analyses the hypothesis about whether a differential IMF treatment could help to explain these distinct outcomes. This paper contributes to historical studies on IMF-Latin America relations and the broader literature in international policy economy about IMF policies.

Keywords: international monetary fund, international history, financial history, Latin American economic history, natural language processing, sentiment analysis

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Authors: Alime Cengiz, Talip Kahyaoglu

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Roasting process has the major importance to obtain desired aromatic taste of nuts. In this study, two kinds of roasting process were applied to hulled sesame seeds - vacuum oven and hot air roasting. Efficiency of Gene Expression Programming (GEP), a new soft computing technique of evolutionary algorithm that describes the cause and effect relationships in the data modelling system, and response surface methodology (RSM) were examined in the modelling of roasting processes over a range of temperature (120-180°C) for various times (30-60 min). Color attributes (L*, a*, b*, Browning Index (BI)), textural properties (hardness and fracturability) and moisture content were evaluated and modelled by RSM and GEP. The GEP-based formulations and RSM approach were compared with experimental results and evaluated according to correlation coefficients. The results showed that both GEP and RSM were found to be able to adequately learn the relation between roasting conditions and physical and textural parameters of roasted seeds. However, GEP had better prediction performance than the RSM with the high correlation coefficients (R2 >0.92) for the all quality parameters. This result indicates that the soft computing techniques have better capability for describing the physical changes occuring in sesame seeds during roasting process.

Keywords: genetic expression programming, response surface methodology, roasting, sesame seed

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Authors: M. Y. Ismail, M. Inam

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This paper presents the design and analysis of Liquid Crystal (LC) based tunable reflect array antenna with different design configurations within X-band frequency range. The effect of LC volume used for unit cell element on frequency tunability and reflection loss performance has been investigated. Moreover different slot embedded patch element configurations have been proposed for LC based tunable reflect array antenna design with enhanced performance. The detailed fabrication and measurement procedure for different LC based unit cells has been presented. The waveguide scattering parameter measured results demonstrated that by using the circular slot embedded patch elements, the frequency tunability and dynamic phase range can be increased from 180 MHz to 200 MHz and 120° to 124° respectively. Furthermore the circular slot embedded patch element can be designed at 10 GHz resonant frequency with a patch volume of 2.71 mm3 as compared to 3.47 mm3 required for rectangular patch without slot.

Keywords: liquid crystal, tunable reflect array, frequency tunability, dynamic phase range

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Authors: Dewi Hardiningtyas Sugiono

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Concerning towards the quality of air comfort and safety to pedestrians in the University area should be increased as Indonesia economics booming. Hence, the University management needs guidelines of thermal comfort to innovate a new layout building. The objectives of this study is to investigate and then to evaluate the distribution of thermal comfort which is indicated by predicted mean vote (PMV) index at the University of Brawijaya (UB), Malang. The PMV figures are used to evaluate and to redesign the UB layout. The research is started with study literature and early survey to collect all information of building layout and building shape at the University of Brawijaya. The information is used to create a 3D model in CAD software. The model is simulated by Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) software to measure the PMV factors of air temperature, relative humidity and air speed in some locations. Validation is done by comparing between PMV value from observation and PMV value from simulation. The resuls of the research shows the most sensitive of microclimatic factors is air temperature surrounding the UB building. Finally, the research is successfully figure out the UB layout and provides further actions to increase the thermal comfort.

Keywords: thermal comfort, heat index (HI), CFD, layout

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Authors: Said Benkaciali, Mourad Haddadi, Abdallah Khellaf, Kacem Gairaa, Mawloud Guermoui

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In this study, many experiments were carried out to assess the influence of the input parameters on the performance of multilayer perceptron which is one the configuration of the artificial neural networks. To estimate the daily global solar radiation on the horizontal surface, we have developed some models by using seven combinations of twelve meteorological and geographical input parameters collected from a radiometric station installed at Ghardaïa city (southern of Algeria). For selecting of best combination which provides a good accuracy, six statistical formulas (or statistical indicators) have been evaluated, such as the root mean square errors, mean absolute errors, correlation coefficient, and determination coefficient. We noted that multilayer perceptron techniques have the best performance, except when the sunshine duration parameter is not included in the input variables. The maximum of determination coefficient and correlation coefficient are equal to 98.20 and 99.11%. On the other hand, some empirical models were developed to compare their performances with those of multilayer perceptron neural networks. Results obtained show that the neural networks techniques give the best performance compared to the empirical models.

Keywords: empirical models, multilayer perceptron neural network, solar radiation, statistical formulas

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Authors: Sobhan Sobhani

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This study examined the behavioral patterns of student and their determinants according to the "symbolic interaction" sociological perspective in the form of 7 hypotheses. Behavioral patterns of students were classified in 8 categories: religious, scientific, political, artistic, sporting, national, parents and teachers. They were evaluated by student opinions by a five-point Likert rating scale. The statistical population included all male and female students of Islamic Azad University, Behabahan branch, among which 600 patients (268 females and 332 males) were selected randomly. The following statistical methods were used: frequency and percentage, mean, t-test, Pearson correlation coefficient and multi-way analysis of variance. The results obtained from statistical analysis showed that: 1-There is a significant difference between male and female students in terms of disposition to religious figures, artists, teachers and parents. 2-There is a significant difference between students of urban and rural areas in terms of assuming behavioral patterns of religious, political, scientific, artistic, national figures and teachers. 3-The most important criterion for selecting behavioral patterns of students is intellectual understanding with the pattern. 4-The most important factor influencing the behavioral patterns of male and female students is parents followed by friends. 5-Boys are affected by teachers, the Internet and satellite programs more than girls. Girls assume behavioral patterns from books more than boys. 6-There is a significant difference between students in human sciences, technical, medical and engineering disciplines in terms of selecting religious and political figures as behavioral patterns. 7-There is a significant difference between students belonging to different subcultures in terms of assuming behavioral patterns of religious, scientific and cultural figures. 8-Between the first and fourth year students in terms of selecting behavioral patterns, there is a significant difference only in selecting religious figures. 9-There is a significant negative correlation between the education level of parents and the selection of religious and political figures and teachers. 10-There is a significant negative correlation between family income and the selection of political and religious figures.

Keywords: behavioral patterns, behavioral patterns, male and female students, Islamic Azad University

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Authors: Mostafa Sefidgar, Kaamran Raahemifar, Hossein Bazmara, Madjid Soltani

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The computational methods provide condition for investigation related to the process of drug delivery, such as convection and diffusion of drug in extracellular matrices, and drug extravasation from microvascular. The information of this process clarifies the mechanisms of drug delivery from the injection site to absorption by a solid tumor. In this study, an advanced numerical method is used to solve fluid flow and solute transport equations simultaneously to show how capillary network structure induced by tumor affects drug delivery. The effect of heterogeneous capillary network induced by tumor on interstitial fluid flow and drug delivery is investigated by this multi scale method. The sprouting angiogenesis model is used for generating capillary network induced by tumor. Fluid flow governing equations are implemented to calculate blood flow through the tumor-induced capillary network and fluid flow in normal and tumor tissues. The Starling’s law is used for closing this system of equations and coupling the intravascular and extravascular flows. Finally, convection-diffusion-reaction equation is used to simulate drug delivery. The dynamic approach which changes the capillary network structure based on signals sent by hemodynamic and metabolic stimuli is used in this study for more realistic assumption. The study indicates that drug delivery to solid tumors depends on the tumor induced capillary network structure. The dynamic approach generates the irregular capillary network around the tumor and predicts a higher interstitial pressure in the tumor region. This elevated interstitial pressure with irregular capillary network leads to a heterogeneous distribution of drug in the tumor region similar to in vivo observations. The investigation indicates that the drug transport properties have a significant role against the physiological barrier of drug delivery to a solid tumor.

Keywords: solid tumor, physiological barriers to drug delivery, angiogenesis, microvascular network, solute transport

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Authors: Eva Nedeliakova, Jaroslav Masek, Juraj Camaj

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This article describes the results of research focused on quality of railway freight transport services. Improvement of these services has a crucial importance in customer considering on the future use of railway transport. Processes filling the customer demands and output quality assessment were defined as a part of the research. In this, contribution is introduced the map of quality planning and the algorithm of applied methodology. It characterises a model which takes into account characters of transportation with linking a perception services quality in ordinary and extraordinary operation. Despite the fact that rail freight transport has its solid position in the transport market, lots of carriers worldwide have been experiencing a stagnation for a couple of years. Therefore, specific results of the research have a significant importance and belong to numerous initiatives aimed to develop and support railway transport not only by creating a single railway area or reducing noise but also by promoting railway services. This contribution is focused also on the application of dynamic quality models which represent an innovative method of evaluation quality services. Through this conception, time factor, expected and perceived quality in each moment of the transportation process can be taken into account.

Keywords: quality, railway, transport, service

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Authors: Bahram Fathi, Karim Alizadeh, Azam Mohammadbagheri

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The aim of this paper is to investigate the role of oil price shocks in explaining business cycles in Iran using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach. This model incorporates both productivity and oil revenue shocks. The results indicate that productivity shocks are relatively more important to business cycles than oil shocks. The model with two shocks produces different values for volatility, but these values have the same ranking as that of the actual data for most variables. In addition, the actual data are close to the ratio of standard deviations to the output obtained from the model with two shocks. The results indicate that productivity shocks are relatively more important to business cycles than the oil shocks. The model with only a productivity shock produces the most similar figures in term of volatility magnitude to that of the actual data. Next, we use the Impulse Response Functions (IRF) to evaluate the capability of the model. The IRF shows no effect of an oil shock on the capital stocks and on labor hours, which is a feature of the model. When the log-linearized system of equations is solved numerically, investment and labor hours were not found to be functions of the oil shock. This research recommends using different techniques to compare the model’s robustness. One method by which to do this is to have all decision variables as a function of the oil shock by inducing the stationary to the model differently. Another method is to impose a bond adjustment cost. This study intends to fill that gap. To achieve this objective, we derive a DSGE model that allows for the world oil price and productivity shocks. Second, we calibrate the model to the Iran economy. Next, we compare the moments from the theoretical model with both single and multiple shocks with that obtained from the actual data to see the extent to which business cycles in Iran can be explained by total oil revenue shock. Then, we use an impulse response function to evaluate the role of world oil price shocks. Finally, I present implications of the findings and interpretations in accordance with economic theory.

Keywords: oil price, shocks, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, Iran

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Authors: Fekadu L. Bayisa, Elvan Ceyhan, Todd D. Steury

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Interaction between individuals within the same species is an important component of population dynamics. An interaction can be either static (based on spatial overlap) or dynamic (based on movement interactions). Using GPS collar data, we can quantify both static and dynamic interactions between black bears. The goal of this work is to determine the level of black bear interactions using the 95% and 50% home ranges, as well as to model black bear spatial interactions, which could be attraction, avoidance/repulsion, or a lack of interaction at all, to gain new insights and improve our understanding of ecological processes. Recent methodological developments in home range estimation, inhomogeneous multitype/cross-type summary statistics, and envelope testing methods are explored to study the nature of black bear interactions. Our findings, in general, indicate that the black bears of one type in our data set tend to cluster around another type.

Keywords: autocorrelated kernel density estimator, cross-type summary function, inhomogeneous multitype Poisson process, kernel density estimator, minimum convex polygon, pointwise and global envelope tests

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Authors: Kafeero Frank

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This study aimed at developing a frame work for open source software adoption in an institution of higher learning in Uganda, with the case of KIU as a study area. There were mainly four research questions based on; individual staff interaction with open source software forum, perceived FOSS characteristics, organizational characteristics and external characteristics as factors that affect open source software adoption. The researcher used causal-correlation research design to study effects of these variables on open source software adoption. A quantitative approach was used in this study with self-administered questionnaire on a purposively and randomly sampled sample of university ICT staff. Resultant data was analyzed using means, correlation coefficients and multivariate multiple regression analysis as statistical tools. The study reveals that individual staff interaction with open source software forum and perceived FOSS characteristics were the primary factors that significantly affect FOSS adoption while organizational and external factors were secondary with no significant effect but significant correlation to open source software adoption. It was concluded that for effective open source software adoption to occur there must be more effort on primary factors with subsequent reinforcement of secondary factors to fulfill the primary factors and adoption of open source software. Lastly recommendations were made in line with conclusions for coming up with Kyambogo University frame work for open source software adoption in institutions of higher learning. Areas of further research recommended include; Stakeholders’ analysis of open source software adoption in Uganda; Challenges and way forward. Evaluation of Kyambogo University frame work for open source software adoption in institutions of higher learning. Framework development for cloud computing adoption in Ugandan universities. Framework for FOSS development in Uganda IT industry

Keywords: open source software., organisational characteristics, external characteristics, cloud computing adoption

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Authors: Mujidat Lola Olugbode

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This study investigates the effects of internet addiction on academic performance among students in some tertiary institutions in Oyo State, Nigeria. A descriptive survey research design was adopted for the study. Two research questions and two hypotheses were answered and tested. The population of the study comprised of all students in five tertiary institutions in Oyo State, Nigeria. Simple random sampling technique was used to select 2550 participants (respondents) from the institutions used for the study, this constituted the sample for the study. The instruments used for data collection was a self-constructed questionnaire on Internet Addiction and Students Academic Performance (IAASAP). The reliability coefficient of the instrument was 0.77. Data collected were analyzed using frequency and percentages, Pearson Product Moment Correlation coefficient (PPMCC) and t-test analysis. The results showed that the students in tertiary institutions in Oyo State were occasionally addicted to internet use. The study also revealed a positive correlation between internet addiction and academic performance. The findings also showed that there was significant difference in the internet addiction between male and female Students. Based on the above findings, the researchers recommended among others that government, educators, parents, counselors, teachers should help redirect the internet use toward academics to ensure greater academic performance.

Keywords: internet, addiction, internet addiction, academic performance, tertiary institution, students

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Authors: Riham Barbar

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This paper studies the dynamic effects of charitable giving in a Ramsey model à la Becker and Foias (1994), such that heterogeneity is reduced to two types of agents: rich and poor. It is assumed that rich show a great concern for poor and enjoy giving. The introduction of charitable giving in this paper is inspired from the notion of Zakat (borrowed from the Islamic Economics) and is defined according to the warm-glow of Andreoni (1990). In this framework, we prove the existence of a steady state where only the patient agent holds capital. Furthermore, we show that local indetermincay appears. While moderate values of charitable-giving elasticity makes the appearance of endogenous fluctuations due to self-fulfilling expectations more likely, high values of this elasticity stabilizes endogenous fluctuations, by narrowing down the range of parameter values compatible with local indeterminacy and may rule out expectations-driven fluctuations if it exceeds certain threshold. Finally, cycles of period two emerge. However, charitable-giving makes it less likely for these cycles to emerge.

Keywords: charitable giving, warm-glow, bifurcations, heterogeneous agents, indeterminacy, self-fulfilling expectations, endogenous fluctuations

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Authors: Yuwaratu Syafira, Wahyu K. Y. Putra, Kusharisupeni Djokosujono

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Background/Objective: Body Mass Index (BMI) serves various purposes, including measuring the prevalence of obesity in a population, and also in formulating a patient’s diet at a hospital, and can be calculated with the equation = body weight (kg)/body height (m)². However, the BMI of an individual with difficulties in carrying their weight or standing up straight can not necessarily be measured. The aim of this study was to form a prediction model for the BMI of young adult students of Public Health Faculty of University of Indonesia. Subject/Method: This study used a cross sectional design, with a total sample of 132 respondents, consisted of 58 males and 74 females aged 21- 30. The dependent variable of this study was BMI, and the independent variables consisted of sex and anthropometric measurements, which included ulna length, arm length, tibia length, knee height, mid-upper arm circumference, and calf circumference. Anthropometric information was measured and recorded in a single sitting. Simple and multiple linear regression analysis were used to create the prediction equation for BMI. Results: The male respondents had an average BMI of 24.63 kg/m² and the female respondents had an average of 22.52 kg/m². A total of 17 variables were analysed for its correlation with BMI. Bivariate analysis showed the variable with the strongest correlation with BMI was Mid-Upper Arm Circumference/√Ulna Length (MUAC/√UL) (r = 0.926 for males and r = 0.886 for females). Furthermore, MUAC alone also has a very strong correlation with BMI (r = 0,913 for males and r = 0,877 for females). Prediction models formed from either MUAC/√UL or MUAC alone both produce highly accurate predictions of BMI. However, measuring MUAC/√UL is considered inconvenient, which may cause difficulties when applied on the field. Conclusion: The prediction model considered most ideal to estimate BMI is: Male BMI (kg/m²) = 1.109(MUAC (cm)) – 9.202 and Female BMI (kg/m²) = 0.236 + 0.825(MUAC (cm)), based on its high accuracy levels and the convenience of measuring MUAC on the field.

Keywords: body mass index, mid-upper arm circumference, prediction model, ulna length

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Authors: Rahul Srivastava, Priti Pundir, Y. R. Sood, Rajnish Shrivastava

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For the interpretation of the signatures of sweep frequency response analysis(SFRA) of transformer different types of statistical techniques serves as an effective tool for doing either phase to phase comparison or sister unit comparison. In this paper with the discussion on SFRA several statistics techniques like cross correlation coefficient (CCF), root square error (RSQ), comparative standard deviation (CSD), Absolute difference, mean square error(MSE),Min-Max ratio(MM) are presented through several case studies. These methods require sample data size and spot frequencies of SFRA signatures that are being compared. The techniques used are based on power signal processing tools that can simplify result and limits can be created for the severity of the fault occurring in the transformer due to several short circuit forces or due to ageing. The advantages of using statistics techniques for analyzing of SFRA result are being indicated through several case studies and hence the results are obtained which determines the state of the transformer.

Keywords: absolute difference (DABS), cross correlation coefficient (CCF), mean square error (MSE), min-max ratio (MM-ratio), root square error (RSQ), standard deviation (CSD), sweep frequency response analysis (SFRA)

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Authors: B. Mavhuru, N. S. Nethengwe

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Human activities on land degradation have triggered several environmental problems especially in rural areas that are underdeveloped. The main aim of this study is to analyze the contribution of different land uses to gully development and sediment load on the Nzhelele River Valley in the Limpopo Province. Data was collected using different methods such as observation, field data techniques and experiments. Satellite digital images, topographic maps, aerial photographs and the sediment load static model also assisted in determining how land use affects gully development and sediment load. For data analysis, the researcher used the following methods: Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation coefficient and statistical correlation methods. The results of the research illustrate that high land use activities create negative changes especially in areas that are highly fragile and vulnerable. Distinct impact on land use change was observed within settlement area (9.6 %) within a period of 5 years. High correlation between soil organic matter and soil moisture (R=0.96) was observed. Furthermore, a significant variation (p ≤ 0.6) between the soil organic matter and soil moisture was also observed. A very significant variation (p ≤ 0.003) was observed in bulk density and extreme significant variations (p ≤ 0.0001) were observed in organic matter and soil particle size. The sand mining and agricultural activities has contributed significantly to the amount of sediment load in the Nzhelele River. A high significant amount of total suspended sediment (55.3 %) and bed load (53.8 %) was observed within the agricultural area. The connection which associates the development of gullies to various land use activities determines the amount of sediment load. These results are consistent with other previous research and suggest that land use activities are likely to exacerbate the development of gullies and sediment load in the Nzhelele River Valley.

Keywords: drainage basin, geomorphological processes, gully development, land degradation, riparian land use and sediment load

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Authors: Zhou Mo, Dennis Chow

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In the dynamic positioning system (DPS) for vessels, the reliable information transmission between each note basically relies on the wireless protocols. From the perspective of cluster-based routing protocols for wireless sensor networks, the data fusion technology based on the sleep scheduling mechanism and remaining energy in network layer is proposed, which applies the sleep scheduling mechanism to the routing protocols, considering the remaining energy of node and location information when selecting cluster-head. The problem of uneven distribution of nodes in each cluster is solved by the Equilibrium. At the same time, Classified Forwarding Mechanism as well as Redelivery Policy strategy is adopted to avoid congestion in the transmission of huge amount of data, reduce the delay in data delivery and enhance the real-time response. In this paper, a simulation test is conducted to improve the routing protocols, which turn out to reduce the energy consumption of nodes and increase the efficiency of data delivery.

Keywords: DPS for vessel, wireless sensor network, data fusion, routing protocols

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Authors: Orkide Donma, Mustafa M. Donma

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Chronologic age (CA) of individuals is closely related to obesity and generally affects the magnitude of obesity parameters. On the other hand, close association between basal metabolic rate (BMR) and metabolic age (MA) is also a matter of concern. It is suggested that MA higher than CA is the indicator of the need to improve the metabolic rate. In this study, the aim was to assess some commonly used obesity parameters, such as obesity degree, visceral adiposity, BMR, BMR-to-weight ratio, in several groups with varying differences between MA and CA values. The study comprises adults, whose ages vary between 18 and 79 years. Four groups were constituted. Group 1, 2, 3 and 4 were composed of 55, 33, 76 and 47 adults, respectively. The individuals exhibiting -1, 0 and +1 for their MA-CA values were involved in Group 1, which was considered as the control group. Those, whose MA-CA values varying between -5 and -10 participated in Group 2. Those, whose MAs above their real ages were divided into two groups [Group 3 (MA-CA; from +5 to + 10) and Group 4 (MA-CA; from +11 to + 12)]. Body mass index (BMI) values were calculated. TANITA body composition monitor using bioelectrical impedance analysis technology was used to obtain values for obesity degree, visceral adiposity, BMR and BMR-to-weight ratio. The compiled data were evaluated statistically using a statistical package program; SPSS. Mean ± SD values were determined. Correlation analyses were performed. The statistical significance degree was accepted as p < 0.05. The increase in BMR was positively correlated with obesity degree. MAs and CAs of the groups were 39.9 ± 16.8 vs 39.9 ± 16.7 years for Group 1, 45.0 ± 15.3 vs 51.4 ± 15.7 years for Group 2, 47.2 ± 12.7 vs 40.0 ± 12.7 years for Group 3, and 53.6 ± 14.8 vs 42 ± 14.8 years for Group 4. BMI values of the groups were 24.3 ± 3.6 kg/m², 23.2 ± 1.7 kg/m², 30.3 ± 3.8 kg/m², and 40.1 ± 5.1 kg/m² for Group 1, 2, 3 and 4, respectively. Values obtained for BMR were 1599 ± 328 kcal in Group 1, 1463 ± 198 kcal in Group 2, 1652 ± 350 kcal in Group 3, and 1890 ± 360 kcal in Group 4. A correlation was observed between BMR and MA-CA values in Group 1. No correlation was detected in other groups. On the other hand, statistically significant correlations between MA-CA values and obesity degree, BMI as well as BMR/weight were found in Group 3 and in Group 4. It was concluded that upon consideration of these findings in terms of MA-CA values, BMR-to-weight ratio was found to be much more useful indicator of the severe increase in obesity development than BMR. Also, the lack of associations between MA and BMR as well as BMR-to-weight ratio emphasize the importance of consideration of MA-CA values rather than MA.

Keywords: basal metabolic rate, basal metabolic rate-to-weight-ratio, chronologic age, metabolic age, obesity degree

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Authors: Mohammed Habchi, Sidi Mohammed Mesli, Rafik Benallal, Mohammed Kotbi

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On the basis of four partial correlation functions and some geometric constraints obtained from neutron scattering experiments, a Reverse Monte Carlo (RMC) simulation has been performed in the study of the aqueous electrolyte LiCl6H2O at the glassy state. The obtained 3-dimensional model allows computing pair radial and orientational distribution functions in order to explore the structural features of the system. Unrealistic features appeared in some coordination peaks. To remedy to this, we use the Hybrid Reverse Monte Carlo (HRMC), incorporating an additional energy constraint in addition to the usual constraints derived from experiments. The energy of the system is calculated using an Environment Dependence Interaction Potential (EDIP). Ions effects is studied by comparing correlations between water molecules in the solution and in pure water at room temperature Our results show a good agreement between experimental and computed partial distribution functions (PDFs) as well as a significant improvement in orientational distribution curves.

Keywords: LiCl6H2O, glassy state, RMC, HRMC

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Authors: Edson Vengesai

Abstract:

Derivative products have become essential instruments in portfolio diversification, price discovery, and, most importantly, risk hedging. Derivatives are complex instruments; their valuation, volatility implications, and real impact on the underlying assets' behaviour are not well understood. Little is documented empirically, with conflicting conclusions on how these instruments affect firm risk exposures. Given the growing interest in using derivatives in risk management and portfolio engineering, this study examines the practical impact of derivative usage on the underlying stock price exposure and systematic risk. The paper uses data from South African listed firms. The study employs GARCH models to understand the effect of derivative uses on conditional stock volatility. The GMM models are used to estimate the effect of derivatives use on stocks' systematic risk as measured by Beta and on the total risk of stocks as measured by the standard deviation of returns. The results provide evidence on whether derivatives use is instrumental in reducing stock returns' systematic and total risk. The results are subjected to numerous controls for robustness, including financial leverage, firm size, growth opportunities, and macroeconomic effects.

Keywords: derivatives use, hedging, volatility, stock price exposure

Procedia PDF Downloads 115

Authors: Aijuka Nicholas

Abstract:

A research study was undertaken to characterize the aquifers and identify the potential groundwater recharge zones in the Kagandi district. Quantitative characterization of hydraulic conductivities of aquifers is of fundamental importance to the study of groundwater flow and contaminant transport in aquifers. A conditional approach is used to represent the spatial variability of hydraulic conductivity. Briefly, it involves using qualitative and quantitative geologic borehole-log data to generate a three-dimensional (3D) hydraulic conductivity distribution, which is then adjusted through calibration of a 3D groundwater flow model using pumping-test data and historic hydraulic data. The approach consists of several steps. The study area was divided into five sub-watersheds on the basis of artificial drainage divides. A digital terrain model (DTM) was developed using Arc GIS to determine the general drainage pattern of Kagandi watershed. Hydrologic characterization involved the determination of the various hydraulic properties of the aquifers. Potential groundwater recharge zones were identified by integrating various thematic maps pertaining to the digital elevation model, land use, and drainage pattern in Arc GIS and Sufer golden software. The study demonstrates the potential of GIS in delineating groundwater recharge zones and that the developed methodology will be applicable to other watersheds in Uganda.

Keywords: aquifers, Arc GIS, groundwater recharge, recharge zones

Procedia PDF Downloads 150

Authors: Serap Keskin Tunç, Cennet Neslihan Eroğlu, Sevinç Şahin, Selda Seçkin

Abstract:

It has been suggested that various viruses may play a role in the pathogenesis of cancerous oral lesions in the literature. The aim of this study was to investigate the presence of both possible precancerous viral markers (HPV, HHV8, HSV1, HSV2, and EBV), and p53 and Ki-67 in the dental follicles of asymptomatic impacted teeth. A hundred healthy volunteers, older than 18 years old, included in the study. Dental follicles of extracted impacted teeth were excised and fixated in 10% formaldehyde. Histopathological and immunohistochemical examinations using HPV (containing HPV 8 and HPV 11), p16 (containing HPV 16), HHV8, HSV1, HSV2, EBV, p53 and Ki-67 antibodies were carried out. Also, the immunohistochemical results were correlated with the clinicopathological feature by Chi-square test statistically No dysplasia or neoplasm was observed. 62% of the cases were positive for p16, 32% were positive for EBV, 26% were positive for HSV1, immunohistochemically. All cases were immunonegative for HPV, HSV2, and HHV8. There was statistically significant correlation between overexpression of p53 with both EBV and p16 positivity (p<0.05). Direct correlation between higher expression of Ki-67 between EBV immunopositivity was detected (p<0.05). Thus, these viruses may be suggested to show trophism to the dental follicles acting as a reservoir. In conclusion, all dental follicles of extracted impacted teeth should be examined histopathologically in order to detect and prevent possible viral oncogenesis.

Keywords: dental follicles, Ki67, p53, precancerous markers viral markers

Procedia PDF Downloads 293

Authors: Ahmed R. Z. Baghdadi,  Mona H. Gamal Eldein

Abstract:

Background: With the perceived pain and poor function experienced following knee arthroplasty, patients usually feel unsatisfied. Yet, a controversy still persists on the appropriate operative technique that doesn’t affect proprioception much. Purpose: This study compared the effects of Cruciate Retaining (CR) and Posterior Stabilized (PS) total knee arthroplasty (TKA on dynamic balance, pain and functional performance following rehabilitation. Methods: Thirty patients with CRTKA (group I), thirty with PSTKA (group II) and fifteen indicated for arthroplasty but weren’t operated on yet (group III) participated in the study. The mean age was 54.53±3.44, 55.13±3.48 and 55.33±2.32 years and BMI 35.7±3.03, 35.7±1.99 and 35.73±1.03 kg/m2 for group I, II, and III respectively. The Berg Balance Scale (BBS), WOMAC pain subscale and Timed-Up-and-Go (TUG) and Stair-Climbing (SC) tests were used for assessment. Assessments were conducted four weeks pre- and post-operatively, three, six and twelve months post-operatively with the control group being assessed at the same time intervals. The post-operative rehabilitation involved hospitalization (1st week), home-based (2nd-4th weeks), and outpatient clinic (5th-12th weeks) programs, follow-up to all groups for twelve months. Results: The Mixed design MANOVA revealed that group I had significantly lower pain scores and SC time compared with group II three, six and twelve months post-operatively. Moreover, the BBS scores increased significantly and the pain scores and TUG and SC time decreased significantly six months post-operatively compared with four weeks pre- and post-operatively and three months post-operatively in group I and II with the opposite being true four weeks post-operatively. But no significant differences in BBS scores, pain scores and TUG and SC time between six and twelve months post-operatively in group I and II. Interpretation/Conclusion: CRTKA is preferable to PSTKA, possibly due to the preserved human proprioceptors in the un-excised PCL.

Keywords: dynamic balance, functional performance, knee arthroplasty, long-term

Procedia PDF Downloads 414

Authors: Mahmoud Ghazy, Ahmed R. Z. Baghdadi

Abstract:

Background: With the perceived pain and poor function experienced following total hip Arthroplasty (THA), patients usually feel un-satisfied. Methods: Thirty patients with THA (group I) and thirty indicated for arthroplasty but weren’t operated on yet (group II) participated in the study. The mean age was 54.53±3.44 and 55.33±2.32 years and BMI 35.7±3.03 and 35.73±1.03 kg/m2 for group I and III respectively. The Berg Balance Scale (BBS), Timed Up-and-Go (TUG) and Stair-Climbing (SC) tests were used for assessment. Assessments were conducted four weeks pre- and post-operatively and three months post-operatively with the control group being assessed at the same time intervals. The post-operative rehabilitation involved hospitalization (1st week), home-based (2nd-4th weeks), and outpatient clinic (5th-12th weeks) programs. Results: group I had significantly lower TUG and SC time compared with group II four weeks and three months post-operatively. Moreover, the BBS scores increased significantly and the pain scores and TUG and SC time decreased significantly four weeks and three months post-operatively compared with four weeks pre- operatively in group. But no significant differences in BBS scores four weeks and three months post-operatively in group I compared with group II. Interpretation/Conclusion : Patients with THA still have defects in proprioception, so they needs more concentration on proprioception training.

Keywords: dynamic balance, functional performance, hip arthroplasty, total

Procedia PDF Downloads 375

Authors: Wanyi Zhu, Xia Ming, Huafeng Wang, Junda Chen, Lu Liu, Jiangwei Jiang, Guohua Liu

Abstract:

Anomaly detection is a first and imperative step needed to respond to unexpected problems and to assure high performance and security in large data center management. This paper presents an online anomaly detection system through an innovative approach of ensemble machine learning and adaptive differentiation algorithms, and applies them to performance data collected from a continuous monitoring system for multi-tier web applications running in Alibaba data centers. We evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of this algorithm with production traffic data and compare with the traditional anomaly detection approaches such as a static threshold and other deviation-based detection techniques. The experiment results show that our algorithm correctly identifies the unexpected performance variances of any running application, with an acceptable false positive rate. This proposed approach has already been deployed in real-time production environments to enhance the efficiency and stability in daily data center operations.

Keywords: Alibaba data centers, anomaly detection, big data computation, dynamic ensemble learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 205