Search results for: stock prediction

Authors: Dariush Jafari, Seyed Ali Jafari

Abstract:

The recommended limit for cadmium concentration in potable water is less than 0.005 mg/L. A continuous biosorption process using indigenous red seaweed, Gracilaria corticata, was performed to remove cadmium from the potable water. The process was conducted under fixed conditions and the breakthrough curves were achieved for three consecutive sorption-desorption cycles. A modeling based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) was employed to fit the experimental breakthrough data. In addition, a simplified semi empirical model, Thomas, was employed for this purpose. It was found that ANN well described the experimental data (R2>0.99) while the Thomas prediction were a bit less successful with R2>0.97. The adjusted design parameters using the nonlinear form of Thomas model was in a good agreement with the experimentally obtained ones. The results approve the capability of ANN to predict the cadmium concentration in potable water.

Keywords: ANN, biosorption, cadmium, packed-bed, potable water

Procedia PDF Downloads 424

Authors: Kelvin Mwaba, Nicole Strickland

Abstract:

Background and Objectives: Overexploitation and illegal fishing have been identified as the primary cause of the global decline in the fish stock. While commercial companies and small-scale fishing sectors are strictly regulated in South Africa, recreational anglers are not. The underlying assumption seems to be that recreational anglers can self-regulate. The aim of the present study was to investigate the relationship that recreational anglers have with nature and how this relationship can predict unlawful fishing practices. Methods: Using a survey design, 99 self-identified recreational anglers were recruited through convenient sampling. The anglers were accessed from fishing tackle shops around False Bay in the Western Cape province of South Africa. Data was collected using a self-administered questionnaire that consisted of pro-environmental behavior survey and the Nature Relatedness Scale. Results: Data analyses indicated that significant differences with regard to nature relatedness on the basis of participants’ age and level of education. Older and more educated anglers scored higher on nature relatedness than younger and less educated anglers. Logistic regression analysis showed that nature relatedness was a significant predictor of pro-environmental behaviors (R²= 0.061). Discussion and Conclusion: The findings of the present study provide support regarding the importance of encouraging healthy and sustainable relationships between humans and nature. Combating harmful fishing practices can achieve through understanding and promoting human care for nature among anglers and others involved in fishing.

Keywords: pro-environmental, behavior, anglers, South Africa

Procedia PDF Downloads 365

Authors: Ning Chang, Zelong Yuan, Yunpeng Wang, Jianchun Wang

Abstract:

Large eddy simulation (LES) has been extensively used in the investigation of turbulence. LES calculates the grid-resolved large-scale motions and leaves small scales modeled by sublfilterscale (SFS) models. Among the existing SFS models, the deconvolution model has been used successfully in the LES of the engineering flows and geophysical flows. Despite the wide application of deconvolution models, the effects of subfilter scale dynamics and filter anisotropy on the accuracy of SFS modeling have not been investigated in depth. The results of LES are highly sensitive to the selection of filters and the anisotropy of the grid, which has been overlooked in previous research. In the current study, two critical aspects of LES are investigated. Firstly, we analyze the influence of sub-filter scale (SFS) dynamics on the accuracy of direct deconvolution models (DDM) at varying filter-to-grid ratios (FGR) in isotropic turbulence. An array of invertible filters are employed, encompassing Gaussian, Helmholtz I and II, Butterworth, Chebyshev I and II, Cauchy, Pao, and rapidly decaying filters. The significance of FGR becomes evident, as it acts as a pivotal factor in error control for precise SFS stress prediction. When FGR is set to 1, the DDM models cannot accurately reconstruct the SFS stress due to the insufficient resolution of SFS dynamics. Notably, prediction capabilities are enhanced at an FGR of 2, resulting in accurate SFS stress reconstruction, except for cases involving Helmholtz I and II filters. A remarkable precision close to 100% is achieved at an FGR of 4 for all DDM models. Additionally, the further exploration extends to the filter anisotropy to address its impact on the SFS dynamics and LES accuracy. By employing dynamic Smagorinsky model (DSM), dynamic mixed model (DMM), and direct deconvolution model (DDM) with the anisotropic filter, aspect ratios (AR) ranging from 1 to 16 in LES filters are evaluated. The findings highlight the DDM's proficiency in accurately predicting SFS stresses under highly anisotropic filtering conditions. High correlation coefficients exceeding 90% are observed in the a priori study for the DDM's reconstructed SFS stresses, surpassing those of the DSM and DMM models. However, these correlations tend to decrease as lter anisotropy increases. In the a posteriori studies, the DDM model consistently outperforms the DSM and DMM models across various turbulence statistics, encompassing velocity spectra, probability density functions related to vorticity, SFS energy flux, velocity increments, strain-rate tensors, and SFS stress. It is observed that as filter anisotropy intensify, the results of DSM and DMM become worse, while the DDM continues to deliver satisfactory results across all filter-anisotropy scenarios. The findings emphasize the DDM framework's potential as a valuable tool for advancing the development of sophisticated SFS models for LES of turbulence.

Keywords: deconvolution model, large eddy simulation, subfilter scale modeling, turbulence

Procedia PDF Downloads 72

Authors: Supria Sarkar, Vasit Sagan, Sourav Bhadra, Meghnath Pokharel, Felix B.Fritschi

Abstract:

Soybean and their derivatives are very important agricultural commodities around the world because of their wide applicability in human food, animal feed, biofuel, and industries. However, the significance of soybean production depends on the quality of the soybean seeds rather than the yield alone. Seed composition is widely dependent on plant physiological properties, aerobic and anaerobic environmental conditions, nutrient content, and plant phenological characteristics, which can be captured by high temporal resolution remote sensing datasets. Planet scope (PS) satellite images have high potential in sequential information of crop growth due to their frequent revisit throughout the world. In this study, we estimate soybean seed composition while the plants are in the field by utilizing PlanetScope (PS) satellite images and different machine learning algorithms. Several experimental fields were established with varying genotypes and different seed compositions were measured from the samples as ground truth data. The PS images were processed to extract 462 hand-crafted vegetative and textural features. Four machine learning algorithms, i.e., partial least squares (PLSR), random forest (RFR), gradient boosting machine (GBM), support vector machine (SVM), and two recurrent neural network architectures, i.e., long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) were used in this study to predict oil, protein, sucrose, ash, starch, and fiber of soybean seed samples. The GRU and LSTM architectures had two separate branches, one for vegetative features and the other for textures features, which were later concatenated together to predict seed composition. The results show that sucrose, ash, protein, and oil yielded comparable prediction results. Machine learning algorithms that best predicted the six seed composition traits differed. GRU worked well for oil (R-Squared: of 0.53) and protein (R-Squared: 0.36), whereas SVR and PLSR showed the best result for sucrose (R-Squared: 0.74) and ash (R-Squared: 0.60), respectively. Although, the RFR and GBM provided comparable performance, the models tended to extremely overfit. Among the features, vegetative features were found as the most important variables compared to texture features. It is suggested to utilize many vegetation indices for machine learning training and select the best ones by using feature selection methods. Overall, the study reveals the feasibility and efficiency of PS images and machine learning for plot-level seed composition estimation. However, special care should be given while designing the plot size in the experiments to avoid mixed pixel issues.

Keywords: agriculture, computer vision, data science, geospatial technology

Procedia PDF Downloads 131

Authors: Dingyang Hu, Dan Liu

Abstract:

DNN (Deep Neural Network) deep learning models are widely used in classification, prediction, and other task scenarios. To address the difficulties of generic adversarial perturbation generation for deep learning models under black-box conditions, a generic adversarial ingestion generation method based on a saliency map (CJsp) is proposed to obtain salient image regions by counting the factors that influence the input features of an image on the output results. This method can be understood as a saliency map attack algorithm to obtain false classification results by reducing the weights of salient feature points. Experiments also demonstrate that this method can obtain a high success rate of migration attacks and is a batch adversarial sample generation method.

Keywords: adversarial sample, gradient, probability, black box

Procedia PDF Downloads 96

Authors: C. Milind Caspar, Valtonia Octavio Massingue, K. Maneesh Reddy, K. V. Ramesh

Abstract:

Gas holdup data were obtained from measured pressure drop values in a gas-liquid upflow bubble column in the presence of string of hemispheres promoter internal. The parameters that influenced the gas holdup are gas velocity, liquid velocity, promoter rod diameter, pitch and base diameter of hemisphere. Tap water was used as liquid phase and nitrogen as gas phase. About 26 percent in gas holdup was obtained due to the insertion of promoter in in the present study in comparison with empty conduit. Pitch and rod diameter have not shown any influence on gas holdup whereas gas holdup was strongly influenced by gas velocity, liquid velocity and hemisphere base diameter. Correlation equation was obtained for the prediction of gas holdup by least squares regression analysis.

Keywords: bubble column, gas-holdup, two-phase flow, turbulent promoter

Procedia PDF Downloads 103

Authors: Young-Hyun Seo, Hosuk Shin, Eun-Hak Lee, Seung-Young Kho

Abstract:

This study analyzed and visualized the rental and return data of the public bike sharing system in Seoul, Ttareungyi, from September 2015 to October 2017. With the surge of system users, the number of times of collection and distribution in 2017 increased by three times compared to 2016. The city plans to deploy about 20,000 public bicycles by the end of 2017 to expand the system. Based on about 3.3 million historical data, we calculated the average trip time and the number of trips from one station to another station. The mobility patterns between stations are graphically displayed using R and Tableau. Demand for public bike sharing system is heavily influenced by day and weather. As a result of plotting the number of rentals and returns of some stations on weekdays and weekends at intervals of one hour, there was a difference in rental patterns. As a result of analysis of the rental and return patterns by time of day, there were a lot of returns at the morning peak and more rentals at the afternoon peak at the center of the city. It means that stock of bikes varies largely in the time zone and public bikes should be rebalanced timely. The result of this study can be applied as a primary data to construct the demand forecasting function of the station when establishing the rebalancing strategy of the public bicycle.

Keywords: demand forecasting, mobility patterns, public bike sharing system, visualization

Procedia PDF Downloads 188

Authors: Alireza Fallahfard, Ludwig Vinches, Stephane Halle

Abstract:

In the workplace, the exposure level of airborne contaminants should be evaluated due to health and safety issues. It can be done by numerical models or experimental measurements, but the numerical approach can be useful when it is challenging to perform experiments. One of the simplest models is the well-mixed room (WMR) model, which has shown its usefulness to predict inhalation exposure in many situations. However, since the WMR is limited to gases and vapors, it cannot be used to predict exposure to aerosols. The main objective is to modify the WMR model to expand its application to exposure scenarios involving aerosols. To reach this objective, the standard WMR model has been modified to consider the deposition of particles by gravitational settling and Brownian and turbulent deposition. Three deposition models were implemented in the model. The time-dependent concentrations of airborne particles predicted by the model were compared to experimental results conducted in a 0.512 m3 chamber. Polystyrene particles of 1, 2, and 3 µm in aerodynamic diameter were generated with a nebulizer under two air changes per hour (ACH). The well-mixed condition and chamber ACH were determined by the tracer gas decay method. The mean friction velocity on the chamber surfaces as one of the input variables for the deposition models was determined by computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation. For the experimental procedure, the particles were generated until reaching the steady-state condition (emission period). Then generation stopped, and concentration measurements continued until reaching the background concentration (decay period). The results of the tracer gas decay tests revealed that the ACHs of the chamber were: 1.4 and 3.0, and the well-mixed condition was achieved. The CFD results showed the average mean friction velocity and their standard deviations for the lowest and highest ACH were (8.87 ± 0.36) ×10-2 m/s and (8.88 ± 0.38) ×10-2 m/s, respectively. The numerical results indicated the difference between the predicted deposition rates by the three deposition models was less than 2%. The experimental and numerical aerosol concentrations were compared in the emission period and decay period. In both periods, the prediction accuracy of the modified model improved in comparison with the classic WMR model. However, there is still a difference between the actual value and the predicted value. In the emission period, the modified WMR results closely follow the experimental data. However, the model significantly overestimates the experimental results during the decay period. This finding is mainly due to an underestimation of the deposition rate in the model and uncertainty related to measurement devices and particle size distribution. Comparing the experimental and numerical deposition rates revealed that the actual particle deposition rate is significant, but the deposition mechanisms considered in the model were ten times lower than the experimental value. Thus, particle deposition was significant and will affect the airborne concentration in occupational settings, and it should be considered in the airborne exposure prediction model. The role of other removal mechanisms should be investigated.

Keywords: aerosol, CFD, exposure assessment, occupational settings, well-mixed room model, zonal model

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Authors: Piyush Samant, Ravinder Agarwal

Abstract:

Complementary and Alternative Medicine (CAM) techniques are quite popular and effective for chronic diseases. Iridology is more than 150 years old CAM technique which analyzes the patterns, tissue weakness, color, shape, structure, etc. for disease diagnosis. The objective of this paper is to validate the use of iridology for the diagnosis of the diabetes. The suggested model was applied in a systemic disease with ocular effects. 200 subject data of 100 each diabetic and non-diabetic were evaluated. Complete procedure was kept very simple and free from the involvement of any iridologist. From the normalized iris, the region of interest was cropped. All 63 features were extracted using statistical, texture analysis, and two-dimensional discrete wavelet transformation. A comparison of accuracies of six different classifiers has been presented. The result shows 89.66% accuracy by the random forest classifier.

Keywords: complementary and alternative medicine, classification, iridology, iris, feature extraction, disease prediction

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Authors: Jian-Jun Shu

Abstract:

The statistical properties of CRMs are explored by estimating similar-word set occurrence distribution. It is observed that CRMs tend to have a fat-tail distribution for similar-word set occurrence. Thus, the fat-tail test with two fatness coefficients is proposed to distinguish CRMs from non-CRMs, especially from exons. For the first fatness coefficient, the separation accuracy between CRMs and exons is increased as compared with the existing content-based CRM prediction method – fluffy-tail test. For the second fatness coefficient, the computing time is reduced as compared with fluffy-tail test, making it very suitable for long sequences and large data-base analysis in the post-genome time. Moreover, these indexes may be used to predict the CRMs which have not yet been observed experimentally. This can serve as a valuable filtering process for experiment.

Keywords: statistical approach, transcription factor binding sites, cis-regulatory modules, DNA sequences

Procedia PDF Downloads 286

Authors: C. A. Roberts, S. L. Mascaro, J. R. Gerrish, J. L. Horner

Abstract:

Management-intensive Grazing (MiG) is a practice that rotates livestock through paddocks in a way that best matches the nutrient requirements of the animal to the yield and quality of the pasture. In the USA, MiG has been taught to livestock producers throughout the state of Missouri in 2- and 3-day workshops called “Missouri Grazing Schools.” The economic impact of these schools was quantified using IMPLAN software. The model included hectares of adoption, animal performance, carrying capacity, and input costs. To date, MiG, as taught in the Missouri Grazing Schools, has been implemented on more than 70,000 hectares in Missouri. The economic impact of these schools is presently $125 million USD per year added to the state economy. This magnitude of impact is the result not only of widespread adoption but also because of increased livestock carrying capacity; in Missouri, a capacity increase of 25 to 30% has been well documented. Additional impacts have been MiG improving forage quality and reducing the cost of feed and fertilizer. The environmental impact of MiG in the state of Missouri is currently being estimated. Environmental impact takes into account the reduction in the application of commercial fertilizers; in MiG systems, nitrogen is supplied by N fixation from legumes, and much of the P and K is recycled naturally by well-distributed manure. The environmental impact also estimates carbon sequestration and methane production; MiG can increase carbon sequestration and reduce methane production in comparison to default grazing practices and feedlot operations in the USA.

Keywords: agricultural education, forage quality, management-intensive grazing, nutrient cycling, stock density, sustainable agriculture

Procedia PDF Downloads 198

Authors: Aniket S. Joshi, Aditya R. Mane, Arjun Tukaram

Abstract:

In the 21st century, in the era of e-world, people are continuously getting updated by daily information such as weather conditions, news, stock exchange market updates, new projects, cricket updates, sports and other such applications. In the busy situation, they want this information on the little use of keyboard, time. Today in order to get such information user have to repeat same mouse and keyboard actions which includes time and inconvenience. In India due to rural background many people are not much familiar about the use of computer and internet also. Also in small clinics, small offices, and hotels and in the airport there should be a system which retrieves daily information with the minimum use of keyboard and mouse actions. We plan to design application based project that can easily retrieve information with minimum use of keyboard and mouse actions and make our task more convenient and easier. This can be possible with an image processing application which takes real time hand gestures which will get matched by system and retrieve information. Once selected the functions with hand gestures, the system will report action information to user. In this project we use real time hand gesture movements to select required option which is stored on the screen in the form of RSS Feeds. Gesture will select the required option and the information will be popped and we got the information. A real time hand gesture makes the application handier and easier to use.

Keywords: hand detection, hand tracking, hand gesture recognition, HSV color model, Blob detection

Procedia PDF Downloads 283

Authors: Mahesh Chudasama, Harit Raval

Abstract:

Conical sections and shells of metal plates manufactured by 3-roller conical bending process are widely used in the industries. The process is completed by first bending the metal plates statically and then dynamic roller bending sequentially. It is required to have an analytical model to get maximum bending force, for optimum design of the machine, for static bending stage. Analytical models assuming various stress conditions are considered and these analytical models are compared considering various parameters and reported in this paper. It is concluded from the study that for higher bottom roller inclination, the shear stress affects greatly to the static bending force whereas for lower bottom roller inclination it can be neglected.

Keywords: roller-bending, static-bending, stress-conditions, analytical-modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 246

Authors: İsmail İnce

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to determine index and mechanical properties of pyroclastic rock in a practical way by means of electrical resistivity method. For this purpose, electrical resistivity, uniaxial compressive strength, point load strength, P-wave velocity, density and porosity values of 10 different pyroclastic rocks were measured in the laboratory. A simple regression analysis was made among the index-mechanical properties of the samples compatible with electrical resistivity values. A strong exponentially relation was found between index-mechanical properties and electrical resistivity values. The electrical resistivity method can be used to assess the engineering properties of the rock from which it is difficult to obtain regular shaped samples as a non-destructive method.

Keywords: electrical resistivity, index-mechanical properties, pyroclastic rocks, regression analysis

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Authors: Naseem Uddin

Abstract:

Impinging jets are used in variety of engineering and industrial applications. This paper is based on numerical simulations of heat transfer by turbulent impinging jet with velocity field excitations using different Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes Equations models. Also Detached Eddy Simulations are conducted to investigate the differences in the prediction capabilities of these two simulation approaches. In this paper the excited jet is simulated in non-commercial CFD code OpenFOAM with the goal to understand the influence of dynamics of impinging jet on heat transfer. The jet’s frequencies are altered keeping in view the preferred mode of the jet. The Reynolds number based on mean velocity and diameter is 23,000 and jet’s outlet-to-target wall distance is 2. It is found that heat transfer at the target wall can be influenced by judicious selection of amplitude and frequencies.

Keywords: excitation, impinging jet, natural frequency, turbulence models

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Authors: Priyal Motwani, Garvit Goel

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In this study, we have studied and analysed the transaction data of investors of a mutual fund investment company based in India. Based on the data available, we have identified the top four biases that affect the investors of the emerging market economies through regression analysis and three uniquely defined ratios. We found that the four most prominent biases that affected the investment making decisions in India are– Chauffer Knowledge, investors tend to make ambitious decisions about sectors they know little about; Bandwagon effect – the response of the market indices to macroeconomic events are more profound and seem to last longer compared to western markets; base-rate neglect – judgement about stocks are too much based on the most recent development ignoring the long-term fundamentals of the stock; availability bias – lack of proper communication channels of market information lead people to be too reliant on limited information they already have. After segregating the investors into six groups, the results have further been studied to identify a correlation among the demographics, gender and unique cultural identity of the derived groups and the corresponding prevalent biases. On the basis of the results obtained from the derived groups, our study recommends six methods, specific to each group, to educate the investors about the prevalent biases and their role in investment decision making.

Keywords: Bandwagon effect, behavioural biases, Chauffeur knowledge, demographics, investor literacy, mutual funds

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Authors: Y. Galerkin, A. Rekstin, K. Soldatova

Abstract:

Universal modeling method well proven for industrial compressors was applied for design of the high flow rate supersonic stage. Results were checked by ANSYS CFX and NUMECA Fine Turbo calculations. The impeller appeared to be very effective at transonic flow velocities. Stator elements efficiency is acceptable at design Mach numbers too. Their loss coefficient versus inlet flow angle performances correlates well with Universal modeling prediction. The impeller demonstrated ability of satisfactory operation at design flow rate. Supersonic flow behavior in the impeller inducer at the shroud blade to blade surface Φdes deserves additional study.

Keywords: centrifugal compressor stage, supersonic impeller, inlet flow angle, loss coefficient, return channel, shock wave, vane diffuser

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Authors: Tayeb Aissaoui, Inas M. AlNashef

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In recent years, green solvents named deep eutectic solvents (DESs) have been found to possess significant properties and to be applicable in several technologies. Choline chloride (ChCl) mixed with urea at a ratio of 1:2 and 80 °C was the first discovered DES. In this article, chemical structure and combination mechanism of ChCl: urea based DES were investigated. Moreover, the implementation of this DES in water removal from natural gas was reported. Dehydration of natural gas by ChCl:urea shows significant absorption efficiency compared to triethylene glycol. All above operations were retrieved from COSMOthermX software. This article confirms the potential application of DESs in gas industry.

Keywords: COSMO-RS, deep eutectic solvents, dehydration, natural gas, structure, organic salt

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Authors: Maryam Amiri, Leyli Mohammad-Khanli

Abstract:

Cloud computing is becoming increasingly popular and more business applications are moving to cloud. In this regard, services that provide similar functional properties are increasing. So, the ability to select a service with the best non-functional properties, corresponding to the user preference, is necessary for the user. This paper presents an Evaluation Framework of Service Trustworthiness (EFST) that evaluates the trustworthiness of equivalent services without need to additional invocations of them. EFST extracts user preference automatically. Then, it assesses trustworthiness of services in two dimensions of qualitative and quantitative metrics based on the experiences of past usage of services. Finally, EFST determines the overall trustworthiness of services using Fuzzy Inference System (FIS). The results of experiments and simulations show that EFST is able to predict the missing values of Quality of Service (QoS) better than other competing approaches. Also, it propels users to select the most appropriate services.

Keywords: user preference, cloud service, trustworthiness, QoS metrics, prediction

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Authors: Tarek Litim, Ouahiba Taamallah

Abstract:

The present paper is an investigation of the effect of burnishing on the surface integrity of a component made of 15NiCr6 steel. This work shows a statistical study based on regression, and Taguchi's design has allowed the development of mathematical models to predict the output responses as a function of the technological parameters studied. The response surface methodology (RSM) showed a simultaneous influence of the burnishing parameters and observe the optimal processing parameters. ANOVA analysis of the results resulted in the validation of the prediction model with a determination coefficient R=90.60% and 92.41% for roughness and hardness, respectively. Furthermore, a multi-objective optimization allowed to identify a regime characterized by P=10kgf, i=3passes, and f=0.074mm/rev, which favours minimum roughness and maximum hardness. The result was validated by the desirability of D= (0.99 and 0.95) for roughness and hardness, respectively.

Keywords: 15NiCr6 steel, burnishing, surface integrity, Taguchi, RSM, ANOVA

Procedia PDF Downloads 187

Authors: Tariq Mansoor, Lubos Hes, Vladimir Bajzik

Abstract:

Socks comfort has great significance in our daily life. This significance even increased when we have undergone a work of low or high activity. It causes the sweating of our body with different rates. In this study, plain socks with differential fibre composition were wetted to saturated level. Then after successive intervals of conditioning, these socks are characterized by thermal resistance in dry and wet states. Theoretical thermal resistance is predicted by using combined filling coefficients and thermal conductivity of wet polymers instead of dry polymer (fibre) in different models. By this modification, different mathematical models could predict thermal resistance at different moisture levels. Furthermore, predicted thermal resistance by different models has reasonable correlation range between (0.84 -0.98) with experimental results in both dry (lab conditions moisture) and wet states. "This work is supported by Technical University of Liberec under SGC-2019. Project number is 21314".

Keywords: thermal resistance, mathematical model, plain socks, moisture loss rate

Procedia PDF Downloads 193

Authors: Richard Ren

Abstract:

Air pollution is a serious danger to international well-being and economies - it will kill an estimated 7 million people every year, costing world economies $2.6 trillion by 2060 due to sick days, healthcare costs, and reduced productivity. In the United States alone, 60,000 premature deaths are caused by poor air quality. For this reason, there is a crucial need to develop effective methods to forecast air quality, which can mitigate air pollution’s detrimental public health effects and associated costs by helping people plan ahead and avoid exposure. The goal of this study is to propose an artificial intelligence framework for predicting future air quality based on timing variables (i.e. season, weekday/weekend), future weather forecasts, as well as past pollutant and air quality measurements. The proposed framework utilizes multiple machine learning algorithms (logistic regression, random forest, neural network) with different specifications and averages the results of the three top-performing models to eliminate inaccuracies, weaknesses, and biases from any one individual model. Over time, the proposed framework uses new data to self-adjust model parameters and increase prediction accuracy. To demonstrate its applicability, a prototype of this framework was created to forecast air quality in Los Angeles, California using datasets from the RP4 weather data repository and EPA pollutant measurement data. The results showed good agreement between the framework’s predictions and real-life observations, with an overall 92% model accuracy. The combined model is able to predict more accurately than any of the individual models, and it is able to reliably forecast season-based variations in air quality levels. Top air quality predictor variables were identified through the measurement of mean decrease in accuracy. This study proposed and demonstrated the efficacy of a comprehensive air quality prediction framework leveraging multiple machine learning algorithms to overcome individual algorithm shortcomings. Future enhancements should focus on expanding and testing a greater variety of modeling techniques within the proposed framework, testing the framework in different locations, and developing a platform to automatically publish future predictions in the form of a web or mobile application. Accurate predictions from this artificial intelligence framework can in turn be used to save and improve lives by allowing individuals to protect their health and allowing governments to implement effective pollution control measures.Air pollution is a serious danger to international wellbeing and economies - it will kill an estimated 7 million people every year, costing world economies $2.6 trillion by 2060 due to sick days, healthcare costs, and reduced productivity. In the United States alone, 60,000 premature deaths are caused by poor air quality. For this reason, there is a crucial need to develop effective methods to forecast air quality, which can mitigate air pollution’s detrimental public health effects and associated costs by helping people plan ahead and avoid exposure. The goal of this study is to propose an artificial intelligence framework for predicting future air quality based on timing variables (i.e. season, weekday/weekend), future weather forecasts, as well as past pollutant and air quality measurements. The proposed framework utilizes multiple machine learning algorithms (logistic regression, random forest, neural network) with different specifications and averages the results of the three top-performing models to eliminate inaccuracies, weaknesses, and biases from any one individual model. Over time, the proposed framework uses new data to self-adjust model parameters and increase prediction accuracy. To demonstrate its applicability, a prototype of this framework was created to forecast air quality in Los Angeles, California using datasets from the RP4 weather data repository and EPA pollutant measurement data. The results showed good agreement between the framework’s predictions and real-life observations, with an overall 92% model accuracy. The combined model is able to predict more accurately than any of the individual models, and it is able to reliably forecast season-based variations in air quality levels. Top air quality predictor variables were identified through the measurement of mean decrease in accuracy. This study proposed and demonstrated the efficacy of a comprehensive air quality prediction framework leveraging multiple machine learning algorithms to overcome individual algorithm shortcomings. Future enhancements should focus on expanding and testing a greater variety of modeling techniques within the proposed framework, testing the framework in different locations, and developing a platform to automatically publish future predictions in the form of a web or mobile application. Accurate predictions from this artificial intelligence framework can in turn be used to save and improve lives by allowing individuals to protect their health and allowing governments to implement effective pollution control measures.Air pollution is a serious danger to international wellbeing and economies - it will kill an estimated 7 million people every year, costing world economies $2.6 trillion by 2060 due to sick days, healthcare costs, and reduced productivity. In the United States alone, 60,000 premature deaths are caused by poor air quality. For this reason, there is a crucial need to develop effective methods to forecast air quality, which can mitigate air pollution’s detrimental public health effects and associated costs by helping people plan ahead and avoid exposure. The goal of this study is to propose an artificial intelligence framework for predicting future air quality based on timing variables (i.e. season, weekday/weekend), future weather forecasts, as well as past pollutant and air quality measurements. The proposed framework utilizes multiple machine learning algorithms (logistic regression, random forest, neural network) with different specifications and averages the results of the three top-performing models to eliminate inaccuracies, weaknesses, and biases from any one individual model. Over time, the proposed framework uses new data to self-adjust model parameters and increase prediction accuracy. To demonstrate its applicability, a prototype of this framework was created to forecast air quality in Los Angeles, California using datasets from the RP4 weather data repository and EPA pollutant measurement data. The results showed good agreement between the framework’s predictions and real-life observations, with an overall 92% model accuracy. The combined model is able to predict more accurately than any of the individual models, and it is able to reliably forecast season-based variations in air quality levels. Top air quality predictor variables were identified through the measurement of mean decrease in accuracy. This study proposed and demonstrated the efficacy of a comprehensive air quality prediction framework leveraging multiple machine learning algorithms to overcome individual algorithm shortcomings. Future enhancements should focus on expanding and testing a greater variety of modeling techniques within the proposed framework, testing the framework in different locations, and developing a platform to automatically publish future predictions in the form of a web or mobile application. Accurate predictions from this artificial intelligence framework can in turn be used to save and improve lives by allowing individuals to protect their health and allowing governments to implement effective pollution control measures.

Keywords: air quality prediction, air pollution, artificial intelligence, machine learning algorithms

Procedia PDF Downloads 122

Authors: Elizabeth Snyman-Van Deventer

Abstract:

Numerous corporate scandals, which included investment scams, corporate malfeasance, unethical conduct and conflicts of interest, contributed to the collapse of WorldCom, Global Crossing, Xerox, Tyco, Enron, Sprint, AbbVie and Imclone and led to alarmed investors abandoning public securities markets and the tumbling of U.S stock markets. These companies suffered significant financial losses due to substantial and fraudulent misstatements and other illegal, corrupt or unethical practices. Executives were convicted of fraud and sentenced to prison. The corporate financial scandals, governance failures, and the ensuing public outcries led to mandatory legislation, e.g. the Sarbanes-Oxley Act in the USA. In European corporate scandals such as Parmalat, Royal Dutch Ahold, Vivendi, Adecco and Elan, the boards missed financial misrepresentations. In South Africa, Steinhoff is the most well-known example of corporate collapse, but now we can also add Tongaat Hulett. It seems as if fraud and corruption may be the major sources of these corporate collapses. In most instances, there is either the active involvement of the directors and managers in these fraudulent or corrupt practices, or there is a negligent or even intentional failure to act by directors to prevent these activities. However, besides directors and managers, auditors and lawyers failed in most of these companies to fulfil their professional duties. In most of these major collapses, the ethics of especially auditors and directors could be questioned. This paper will first provide a brief overview of corporate collapses. Secondly, the reasons for these collapses, with a focus on unethical conduct, will be discussed.

Keywords: professional duties, corporate collapses, ethical conduct, legal ethics, directors, auditors

Procedia PDF Downloads 56

Authors: Imen Latrous

Abstract:

Family firm is the most common form of business organization in the world. Many family businesses rely heavily on their own capital to finance their expansion. This dependence on internal funds for their investment may be deliberate to maintain the family dominant position or involuntary as family firms have limited access to external funds. Our understanding of family firm’s choice to fund their own growth using existing capital is somewhat limited. The aim of this paper is to study whether the presence of a controlling family in the company either mitigates or exacerbates external financing constraints. The impact of family ownership on investment–cash flow sensitivity is ultimately an empirical question. We use a sample of 406 Canadian firms listed in Toronto Stock exchange (TSX) over the period 2005–2014 in order to explore this relationship. We distinguish between three elements in the definition of family firms, specifically ownership, control and management, to explore the issue whether family firms are more efficient organisational form. Our research contributes to the extant literature on family ownership in several ways. First, as our understanding of family firm’s investment cash flow sensitivity is somewhat limited in recession times, we explore the effect of family firms on the relation between investment and cash flow during the recent 2007-2009 financial crisis. We also analyse this relationship difference between family firms and non family firms before and during financial crisis. Finally, our paper addresses the endogeneity problem of family ownership and investment-cash flow sensitivity.

Keywords: family firms, investment–cash flow sensitivity, financial crisis, corporate governance

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Authors: Damiaa Saad Khudor

Abstract:

The paper describes an investigation for the thermal design of a fluidized bed cooler and prediction of heat transfer rate among the media categories. It is devoted to the thermal design of such equipment and their application in the industrial fields. It outlines the strategy for the fluidization heat transfer mode and its implementation in industry. The thermal design for fluidized bed cooler is used to furnish a complete design for a fluidized bed cooler of Sodium Bicarbonate. The total thermal load distribution between the air-solid and water-solid along the cooler is calculated according to the thermal equilibrium. The step by step technique was used to accomplish the thermal design of the fluidized bed cooler. It predicts the load, air, solid and water temperature along the trough. The thermal design for fluidized bed cooler revealed to the installation of a heat exchanger consists of (65) horizontal tubes with (33.4) mm diameter and (4) m length inside the bed trough.

Keywords: fluidization, powder technology, thermal design, heat exchangers

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Authors: Ender Su, Kai Wen Wong, I-Ling Ju, Ya-Ling Wang

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In this study, the systemic risk change of Taiwan’s banking sector is analyzed during the financial crisis. The risk expose of each financial institutions to the whole Taiwan banking systemic risk or vice versa under financial distress are measured by conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) and conditional coherent expected shortfall (CoES). The CoVaR and CoES are estimated by using vector quantile autoregression (MVMQ-CaViaR) with the daily stock returns of each banks included domestic and foreign banks in Taiwan. The daily in-sample data covered the period from 05/20/2002 to 07/31/2007 and the out-of-sample period until 12/31/2013 spanning the 2008 U.S. subprime crisis, 2010 Greek debt crisis, and post risk duration. All banks in Taiwan are categorised into several groups according to their size of market capital, leverage and domestic/foreign to find out what the extent of changes of the systemic risk as the risk changes between the individuals in the bank groups and vice versa. The final results can provide a guidance to financial supervisory commission of Taiwan to gauge the downside risk in the system of financial institutions and determine the minimum capital requirement hold by financial institutions due to the sensibility changes in CoVaR and CoES of each banks.

Keywords: bank financial distress, vector quantile autoregression, CoVaR, CoES

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Authors: Zhi-Jun Lu, Qi Lu, Meng Wu, Qian Xiang, Jun Gu

Abstract:

The analysis of perforated steel members is a 3D problem in nature, therefore the traditional analytical expressions for the ultimate load of thin-walled steel sections cannot be used for the perforated steel member design. In this study, finite element method (FEM) and artificial neural network (ANN) were used to simulate the process of stub column tests based on specific codes. Results show that compared with those of the FEM model, the ultimate load predictions obtained from ANN technique were much closer to those obtained from the physical experiments. The ANN model for the solving the hard problem of complex steel perforated sections is very promising.

Keywords: artificial neural network (ANN), finite element method (FEM), perforated sections, thin-walled Steel, ultimate load

Procedia PDF Downloads 347

Authors: Fangting Gao

Abstract:

With the accelerated pace of industrialization and urbanization, the economic level has been significantly improved, and at the same time, the air quality situation has also become a focus of attention, which not only affects people's health but also has certain impacts on the economy and ecology. As the capital city of China, the air quality situation in Beijing has attracted much attention. In this paper, based on the day-by-day PM2.5, PM10, CO, NO₂, SO₂ and O₃ conditions in Beijing from 2018 to 2022, the characterization of pollutants is launched, and the seasonal decomposition and prediction of the main pollutants, PM2.5, PM10 and O3, are performed in STL. The results of the study show that (1) the overall air quality of Beijing has significantly improved from 2018 to 2022, and the main pollutants are PM2.5, PM10, and O₃; (2) the seasonal intensities of the main pollutants are higher, and they are influenced by seasonal factors; and (3) it is predicted that the O₃ concentration will have a trend of slowly increasing from 2023 to 2026, and the PM10 and PM2.5 pollution situation slowly improves.

Keywords: air pollutants, Beijing, characteristic analysis, STL

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Authors: Warda Khan, Remo Lachmann, Adarsh S. Garakahally

Abstract:

The increasing complexity of software and its applicability in a wide range of industries, e.g., automotive, call for enhanced quality assurance techniques. Test automation is one option to tackle the prevailing challenges by supporting test engineers with fast, parallel, and repetitive test executions. A high degree of test automation allows for a shift from mundane (manual) testing tasks to a more analytical assessment of the software under test. However, a high initial investment of test resources is required to establish test automation, which is, in most cases, a limitation to the time constraints provided for quality assurance of complex software systems. Hence, a computer-aided creation of automated test cases is crucial to increase the benefit of test automation. This paper proposes the application of machine learning for the generation of automated test cases. It is based on supervised learning to analyze test specifications and existing test implementations. The analysis facilitates the identification of patterns between test steps and their implementation with test automation components. For the test case generation, this approach exploits historical data of test automation projects. The identified patterns are the foundation to predict the implementation of unknown test case specifications. Based on this support, a test engineer solely has to review and parameterize the test automation components instead of writing them manually, resulting in a significant time reduction for establishing test automation. Compared to other generation approaches, this ML-based solution can handle different writing styles, authors, application domains, and even languages. Furthermore, test automation tools require expert knowledge by means of programming skills, whereas this approach only requires historical data to generate test cases. The proposed solution is evaluated using various multi-label evaluation criteria (EC) and two small-sized real-world systems. The most prominent EC is ‘Subset Accuracy’. The promising results show an accuracy of at least 86% for test cases, where a 1:1 relationship (Multi-Class) between test step specification and test automation component exists. For complex multi-label problems, i.e., one test step can be implemented by several components, the prediction accuracy is still at 60%. It is better than the current state-of-the-art results. It is expected the prediction quality to increase for larger systems with respective historical data. Consequently, this technique facilitates the time reduction for establishing test automation and is thereby independent of the application domain and project. As a work in progress, the next steps are to investigate incremental and active learning as additions to increase the usability of this approach, e.g., in case labelled historical data is scarce.

Keywords: machine learning, multi-class, multi-label, supervised learning, test automation

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Authors: A. Hocine, A. Ghouaoula, S. M. Medjdoub, M. Cherifi

Abstract:

The present paper proposed a meso–macro model describing the mechanical behaviour composite laminates of staking sequence [+θ/-θ]s under tensil loading. The behaviour of a layer is ex-pressed through elasticity coupled to damage. The elastic strain is due to the elasticity of the layer and can be modeled by using the classical laminate theory, and the laminate is considered as an orthotropic material. This means that no coupling effect between strain and curvature is considered. In the present work, the damage is associated to cracking of the matrix and parallel to the fibers and it being taken into account by the changes in the stiffness of the layers. The anisotropic damage is completely described by a single scalar variable and its evolution law is specified from the principle of maximum dissipation. The stress/strain relationship is investigated in plane stress loading.

Keywords: damage, behavior modeling, meso-macro model, composite laminate, membrane loading

Procedia PDF Downloads 471