Search results for: housing price prediction

Authors: Shahrzad Zolfagharnassab, Abdul Rashid Mohamed Shariff, Siti Khairunniza Bejo

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Conventional methods for nutrient soil mapping are based on laboratory tests of samples that are obtained from surveys. The time and cost involved in gathering and analyzing soil samples are the reasons that researchers use Predictive Soil Mapping (PSM). PSM can be defined as the development of a numerical or statistical model of the relationship among environmental variables and soil properties, which is then applied to a geographic database to create a predictive map. Kriging is a group of geostatistical techniques to spatially interpolate point values at an unobserved location from observations of values at nearby locations. The main problem with using kriging as an interpolator is that it is excessively data-dependent and requires a large number of closely spaced data points. Hence, there is a need to minimize the number of data points without sacrificing the accuracy of the results. In this paper, an Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) scheme was used to predict macronutrient values at un-sampled points. ANN has become a popular tool for prediction as it eliminates certain difficulties in soil property prediction, such as non-linear relationships and non-normality. Back-propagation multilayer feed-forward network structures were used to predict nitrogen, phosphorous and potassium values in the soil of the study area. A limited number of samples were used in the training, validation and testing phases of ANN (pattern reconstruction structures) to classify soil properties and the trained network was used for prediction. The soil analysis results of samples collected from the soil survey of block C of Sawah Sempadan, Tanjung Karang rice irrigation project at Selangor of Malaysia were used. Soil maps were produced by the Kriging method using 236 samples (or values) that were a combination of actual values (obtained from real samples) and virtual values (neural network predicted values). For each macronutrient element, three types of maps were generated with 118 actual and 118 virtual values, 59 actual and 177 virtual values, and 30 actual and 206 virtual values, respectively. To evaluate the performance of the proposed method, for each macronutrient element, a base map using 236 actual samples and test maps using 118, 59 and 30 actual samples respectively produced by the Kriging method. A set of parameters was defined to measure the similarity of the maps that were generated with the proposed method, termed the sample reduction method. The results show that the maps that were generated through the sample reduction method were more accurate than the corresponding base maps produced through a smaller number of real samples. For example, nitrogen maps that were produced from 118, 59 and 30 real samples have 78%, 62%, 41% similarity, respectively with the base map (236 samples) and the sample reduction method increased similarity to 87%, 77%, 71%, respectively. Hence, this method can reduce the number of real samples and substitute ANN predictive samples to achieve the specified level of accuracy.

Keywords: artificial neural network, kriging, macro nutrient, pattern recognition, precision farming, soil mapping

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Authors: S. Mousavian, F. Mousavian, V. Nikkhah Rashidabad

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Cubic equations of state like Redlich–Kwong (RK) EOS have been proved to be very reliable tools in the prediction of phase behavior. Despite their good performance in compositional calculations, they usually suffer from weaknesses in the predictions of saturated liquid density. In this research, RK equation was modified. The result of this study shows that modified equation has good agreement with experimental data.

Keywords: equation of state, modification, ammonia, genetic algorithm

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Authors: Wan-Yu Liu, Tiffany April Lin, Yu-Chieh Tang, Yi-Lin Wang, Chieh-Hui Li

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As the national income in Taiwan has been raised, the life style of the public has also been changed, so that the tourism industry gradually moves from a service industry to an experience economy. The Lihpaoland is one of the most popular theme parks in Taiwan. However, the related works on performance of service quality of the park have been lacking since its re-operation in 2012. Therefore, this study investigates the quality of software/hardware facilities and services of the Lihpaoland, and aims to achieve the following three goals: 1) analyzing how various sample data of tourists leads to different results for service quality of LihpaoLand; 2) analyzing how tourists respond to the service tangibility, service reliability, service responsiveness, service guarantee, and service empathy of LihpaoLand; 3) according to the theoretical and empirical results, proposing how to improve the overall facilities and services of LihpaoLand, and hoping to provide suggestions to the LihpaoLand or other related businesses to make decision. The survey was conducted on the tourists to the LihpaoLand using convenience sampling, and 400 questionnaires were collected successfully. Analysis results show that tourists paid much attention to maintenance of amusement facilities and safety of the park, and were satisfied with them, which are great advantages of the park. However, transportation around the LihpaoLand was inadequate, and the price of the Fullon hotel (which is the hotel closest to the LihpaoLand) were not accepted by tourists – more promotion events are recommended. Additionally, the shows are not diversified, and should be improved with the highest priority. Tourists did not pay attention to service personnel’s clothing and the ticket price, but they were not satisfied with them. Hence, this study recommends to design more distinctive costumes and conduct ticket promotions. Accordingly, the suggestions made in this study for LihpaoLand are stated as follows: 1) Diversified amusement facilities should be provided to satisfy the needs at different ages. 2) Cheep but tasty catering and more distinctive souvenirs should be offered. 3) Diversified propaganda schemes should be strengthened to increase number of tourists. 4) Quality and professional of the service staff should be enhanced to acquire public praise and tourists revisiting. 5) Ticket promotions in peak seasons, low seasons, and special events should be conducted. 6) Proper traffic flows should be planned and combined with technologies to reduce waiting time of tourists. 7) The features of theme landscape in LihpaoLand should be strengthened to increase willingness of the tourists with special preferences to visit the park. 8) Ticket discounts or premier points card promotions should be adopted to reward the tourists with high loyalty.

Keywords: service quality, customers’ satisfaction, theme park, Taiwan

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Authors: Noppadol Sritragool

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The objectives of this research were to investigate the decision of passengers who choose to fry with low cost airlines and to study marketing factors which have the influence to the decision to choose each low cost airlines. This paper was a quantitative research technique. A total of 400 low cost airlines’ passengers were interviewed via English questionnaire to collect the respondents’ opinions. The findings revealed that respondents were male and female at a similar proportion. The majority had at least an undergraduate degree, have a lower management level jobs, and had income in the range of 25,000 -35,000 baht per month.. In addition, the findings also revealed that the first three marketing factors influencing the decision of the respondents to choose low-cost airlines were low price, direct flight, and online system.

Keywords: decision to choose, marketing factors, low-cost airlines

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Authors: E. Zippelius

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Urban design aims to provide a stage for public life that, when once brought to life, is right away subject to subtle but continuous transformation. This paper explores such transformations and searches for ways how public life can be reinforced in the case of a housing settlement for the displaced in Nicosia, Cyprus. First, a sound basis of theoretical knowledge is established through literature review, notably the theory of the Production of Space by Henri Lefebvre, exploring its potential and defining key criteria for the following empirical analysis. The analysis is pinpointing the differences between spatial practice, representation of space and spaces of representation as well as their interaction, alliance, or even conflict. In doing so uncertainties, chances and challenges are unraveled that will be consequently linked to practice and action and lead to the formulation of a design strategy. A strategy, though, that does not long for achieving an absolute, finite certainty but understands the three dimensions of space formulated by Lefebvre as equal and space as continuously produced, hence, unfinished.

Keywords: production of space, public space, urban life, urban transformation

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Authors: Muhamad Aris Burhanudin, Angga Firmansyas, Bagus Jaya Santosa

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Earthquakes are natural hazard that can trigger the most dangerous hazard, tsunami. 26 December 2004, a giant earthquake occurred in north-west Andalas Island. It made giant tsunami which crushed Sumatra, Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, Malaysia and Singapore. More than twenty thousand people dead. The occurrence of earthquake and tsunami can not be avoided. But this hazard can be mitigated by earthquake forecasting. Early preparation is the key factor to reduce its damages and consequences. We aim to investigate quantitatively on pattern of earthquake. Then, we can know the trend. We study about earthquake which has happened in Andalas island, Indonesia one last decade. Andalas is island which has high seismicity, more than a thousand event occur in a year. It is because Andalas island is in tectonic subduction zone of Hindia sea plate and Eurasia plate. A tsunami forecasting is needed to mitigation action. Thus, a Tsunami Forecasting Method is presented in this work. Neutral Network has used widely in many research to estimate earthquake and it is convinced that by using Backpropagation Method, earthquake can be predicted. At first, ANN is trained to predict Tsunami 26 December 2004 by using earthquake data before it. Then after we get trained ANN, we apply to predict the next earthquake. Not all earthquake will trigger Tsunami, there are some characteristics of earthquake that can cause Tsunami. Wrong decision can cause other problem in the society. Then, we need a method to reduce possibility of wrong decision. Fuzzy TOPSIS is a statistical method that is widely used to be decision seconder referring to given parameters. Fuzzy TOPSIS method can make the best decision whether it cause Tsunami or not. This work combines earthquake prediction using neural network method and using Fuzzy TOPSIS to determine the decision that the earthquake triggers Tsunami wave or not. Neural Network model is capable to capture non-linear relationship and Fuzzy TOPSIS is capable to determine the best decision better than other statistical method in tsunami prediction.

Keywords: earthquake, fuzzy TOPSIS, neural network, tsunami

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Authors: Gideon Abagna Azunre

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Informal urbanism is perhaps the most ubiquitous urban phenomenon in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and Ghana specifically. Estimates suggest that about two-fifths of urban dwellers (37.9%) in Ghana live in informal settlements, while two-thirds of the working labour force are within the informal economy. This makes Ghana invariably an ‘informal country.’ Informal urbanism involves economic and housing activities that are – in law or in practice – not covered (or insufficiently covered) by formal regulations. Many urban folks rely on informal urbanism as a survival strategy due to limited formal waged employment opportunities or rising home prices in the open market. In an era of globalizing neoliberalism, this struggle to survive in cities resonates with several people globally. For years now, there have been intense debates on the utility of informal urbanism – both its economic and housing dimensions – in developing sustainable cities. While some scholars believe that informal urbanism is beneficial to the sustainable city development agenda, others argue that it generates unbearable negative consequences and it symbolizes lawlessness and squalor. Consequently, the main aim of this research was to dig below the surface of the narratives to locate the role of informal urbanism in the quest for sustainable cities. The research geographically focused on Ghana and its burgeoning informal sector. Also, both primary and secondary data were utilized for the analysis; Secondary data entailed a synthesis of the fragmented literature on informal urbanism in Ghana, while primary data entailed interviews with informal stakeholders (such as informal settlement dwellers), city authorities, and planners. These two data sets were weaved together to discover the nexus between informal urbanism and the tripartite dimensions of sustainable cities – economic, social, and environmental. The results from the research showed a two-pronged relationship between informal urbanism and the three dimensions of sustainable city development. In other words, informal urbanism was identified to both positively and negatively affect the drive for sustainable cities. On the one hand, it provides employment (particularly to women), supplies households’ basic needs (shelter, health, water, and waste management), and enhances civic engagement. However, on the other hand, it perpetuates social and gender inequalities, insecurity, congestion, and pollution. The research revealed that a ‘black and white’ interpretation and policy approach is incapable of capturing the complexities of informal urbanism. Therefore, trying to eradicate or remove it from the urbanscape because it exhibits some negative consequences means cities will lose their positive contributions. The inverse also holds true. A careful balancing act is necessary to maximize the benefits and minimize the costs. Overall, the research presented a de-colonial theorization of informal urbanism and thus followed post-colonial scholars’ clarion call to African cities to embrace the paradox of informality and find ways to integrate it into the city-building process.

Keywords: informal urbanism, sustainable city development, economic sustainability, social sustainability, environmental sustainability, Ghana

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Authors: Sanela Slavkovic, Congor Nad, Spela Golubovic

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Background: The diagnosis of multiple sclerosis (MS) is a major life challenge and has repercussions on all aspects of the daily functioning of those attained by it – personal activities, social participation, and quality of life. Regular follow-up of only the neurological status is not informative enough so that it could provide data on the sort of support and rehabilitation that is required. Objective: The aim of this study was to establish the current level of functioning of persons attained by MS and the factors that influence it. Methods: The study was conducted in Serbia, on a sample of 108 persons with relapse-remitting form of MS, aged 20 to 53 (mean 39.86 years; SD 8.20 years). All participants were fully ambulatory. Methods applied in the study include Expanded Disability Status Scale-EDSS and World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule, WHODAS 2.0 (36-item version, self-administered). Results: Participants were found to experience the most problems in the domains of Participation, Mobility, Life activities and Cognition. The least difficulties were found in the domain of Self-care. Symptom duration was the only control variable with a significant partial contribution to the prediction of the WHODAS scale score (β=0.30, p < 0.05). The total EDSS score correlated with the total WHODAS 2.0 score (r=0.34, p=0.00). Statistically significant differences in the domain of EDSS 0-5.5 were found within categories (0-1.5; 2-3.5; 4-5.5). The more pronounced a participant’s EDSS score was, although not indicative of large changes in the neurological status, the more apparent the changes in the functional domain, i.e. in all areas covered by WHODAS 2.0. Pyramidal (β=0.34, p < 0.05) and Bowel and bladder (β=0.24, p < 0.05) functional systems were found to have a significant partial contribution to the prediction of the WHODAS score. Conclusion: Measuring functioning and disability is important in the follow-up of persons suffering from MS in order to plan rehabilitation and define areas in which additional support is needed.

Keywords: disability, functionality, multiple sclerosis, rehabilitation

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Authors: Etienne Gaborit, Dorothy Durnford, Daniel Deacu, Marco Carrera, Nathalie Gauthier, Camille Garnaud, Vincent Fortin

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A new experimental streamflow forecasting system was recently implemented at the Environment and Climate Change Canada’s (ECCC) Canadian Centre for Meteorological and Environmental Prediction (CCMEP). It relies on CaLDAS (Canadian Land Data Assimilation System) for the assimilation of surface variables, and on a surface prediction system that feeds a routing component. The surface energy and water budgets are simulated with the SVS (Soil, Vegetation, and Snow) Land-Surface Scheme (LSS) at 2.5-km grid spacing over Canada. The routing component is based on the Watroute routing scheme at 1-km grid spacing for the Great Lakes and Nelson River watersheds. The system is run in two distinct phases: an analysis part and a forecast part. During the analysis part, CaLDAS outputs are used to force the routing system, which performs streamflow assimilation. In forecast mode, the surface component is forced with the Canadian GEM atmospheric forecasts and is initialized with a CaLDAS analysis. Streamflow performances of this new system are presented over 2019. Performances are compared to the current ECCC’s operational streamflow forecasting system, which is different from the new experimental system in many aspects. These new streamflow forecasts are also compared to persistence. Overall, the new streamflow forecasting system presents promising results, highlighting the need for an elaborated assimilation phase before performing the forecasts. However, the system is still experimental and is continuously being improved. Some major recent improvements are presented here and include, for example, the assimilation of snow cover data from remote sensing, a backward propagation of assimilated flow observations, a new numerical scheme for the routing component, and a new reservoir model.

Keywords: assimilation system, distributed physical model, offline hydro-meteorological chain, short-term streamflow forecasts

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Authors: Xiaomin Zhong, Alexander Pate, Ya-Ting Yang, Ali Fahmi, Darren M. Ashcroft, Ben Goldacre, Brian Mackenna, Amir Mehrkar, Sebastian C. J. Bacon, Jon Massey, Louis Fisher, Peter Inglesby, Kieran Hand, Tjeerd van Staa, Victoria Palin

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Background: This study aimed to predict risks of potentially inappropriate antibiotic type and repeat prescribing and assess changes during COVID-19. Methods: With the approval of NHS England, we used the OpenSAFELY platform to access the TPP SystmOne electronic health record (EHR) system and selected patients prescribed antibiotics from 2019 to 2021. Multinomial logistic regression models predicted the patient’s probability of receiving an inappropriate antibiotic type or repeating the antibiotic course for each common infection. Findings: The population included 9.1 million patients with 29.2 million antibiotic prescriptions. 29.1% of prescriptions were identified as repeat prescribing. Those with same-day incident infection coded in the EHR had considerably lower rates of repeat prescribing (18.0%), and 8.6% had a potentially inappropriate type. No major changes in the rates of repeat antibiotic prescribing during COVID-19 were found. In the ten risk prediction models, good levels of calibration and moderate levels of discrimination were found. Important predictors included age, prior antibiotic prescribing, and region. Patients varied in their predicted risks. For sore throat, the range from 2.5 to 97.5th percentile was 2.7 to 23.5% (inappropriate type) and 6.0 to 27.2% (repeat prescription). For otitis externa, these numbers were 25.9 to 63.9% and 8.5 to 37.1%, respectively. Interpretation: Our study found no evidence of changes in the level of inappropriate or repeat antibiotic prescribing after the start of COVID-19. Repeat antibiotic prescribing was frequent and varied according to regional and patient characteristics. There is a need for treatment guidelines to be developed around antibiotic failure and clinicians provided with individualised patient information.

Keywords: antibiotics, infection, COVID-19 pandemic, antibiotic stewardship, primary care

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Authors: S. Burgalat, L. Teilhac, A. Brand, E. Chastel, M. Jumeline

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The paper presents actual benefits and drawbacks of a multidirectional autonomous hovercraft conceived with limited resources and designed for indoor exploration. Recent developments in the field have led to the apparition of very powerful automotive systems capable of very high calculation and exploration in complex unknown environments. They usually propose very complex algorithms, high precision/cost sensors and sometimes have heavy calculation consumption with complex data fusion. These systems are usually powerful but have a certain price, and the benefits may not be worth the cost, especially considering their hardware limitations and their power consumption. The present approach is to build a compromise between cost, power consumption and results preciseness.

Keywords: hovercraft, indoor exploration, autonomous, multidirectional, wireless control

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Authors: Etidel Labidi

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Energy efficiency improvement is one of the means to reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions. Recently, some developed countries have implemented the tradable white certificate scheme (TWC) as a new policy instrument based on market approach to support energy efficiency improvements. The major focus of this paper is to compare the White Certificates (TWC) scheme as an innovative policy instrument for energy efficiency improvement to other policy instruments: energy taxes and regulations setting a minimum level of energy efficiency. On the basis of our theoretical discussion and numerical simulation, we show that the white certificates system is the most interesting policy instrument for saving energy because it generates the most important level of energy savings and the least increase in energy service price.

Keywords: energy savings, energy efficiency, energy policy, white certificates

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Authors: Pradyumna Mohanty

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The paper aims to explore whether accounting information of Indian companies in the Steel sector are value relevant or not. Ohlson’s model which usually takes into consideration book value per share (BV) and earnings per share (EARN) has been used and the same has been expanded to include two more variables such as cash flow from operations (CFO) and return on equity (ROE). The data were collected from CMIE-Prowess data base in respect of BSE-listed steel companies and the time frame spans from 2010 to 2014. OLS regression has been used to test the value relevance of these accounting numbers. Results indicate that both CFO and BV are having significant influence on the stock price in two out of five years of study. But, BV is emerging as the most significant and highly value relevant of all the four variables during the entire period of study.

Keywords: value relevance, accounting information, book value per share, earnings per share

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Authors: Hong-Nam Choi, Hyeong-Wook Song, Sungwan Hong, Hong-Kyu Kim

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In Korea, elements that decide the quality of residential environment are not only diverse, but show deviation as well. However, people do not consider these elements and instead, they try to settle the uniformed style of residential environment, which focuses on the construction development of apartment housing and business based plans. Recently, block-unit redevelopment is becoming the standout alternative plan of standardize redevelopment projects, but constructions become inefficient because of indefinite planning criteria. In conclusion, the following research is about analyzing and categorizing the development method and legal ground of redevelopment project district, plan determinant and applicable standard. The purpose of this study is to become a basis in compatible analysis of planning standards that will happen in the future.

Keywords: shape restrictions, improvement of regulation, diversity of residential environment, classification of redevelopment project, planning criteria of redevelopment, special architectural district (SAD)

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Authors: Dongping Fang, Lian Duan, Xiaojing Yuan, Mike Xu, Allyn Klunder, Kevin Tan, Suiting Cao, Yeqing Ji

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Accurate prediction of a medical condition with straight clinical evidence is a long-sought topic in the medical management and health insurance field. Although great progress has been made with machine learning algorithms, the medical community is still, to a certain degree, suspicious about the model's accuracy and interpretability. This paper presents an innovative hierarchical attention deep learning model to achieve good prediction and clear interpretability that can be easily understood by medical professionals. This deep learning model uses a hierarchical attention structure that matches naturally with the medical history data structure and reflects the member’s encounter (date of service) sequence. The model attention structure consists of 3 levels: (1) attention on the medical code types (diagnosis codes, procedure codes, lab test results, and prescription drugs), (2) attention on the sequential medical encounters within a type, (3) attention on the medical codes within an encounter and type. This model is applied to predict the occurrence of stage 3 chronic kidney disease (CKD3), using three years’ medical history of Medicare Advantage (MA) members from a top health insurance company. The model takes members’ medical events, both claims and electronic medical record (EMR) data, as input, makes a prediction of CKD3 and calculates the contribution from individual events to the predicted outcome. The model outcome can be easily explained with the clinical evidence identified by the model algorithm. Here are examples: Member A had 36 medical encounters in the past three years: multiple office visits, lab tests and medications. The model predicts member A has a high risk of CKD3 with the following well-contributed clinical events - multiple high ‘Creatinine in Serum or Plasma’ tests and multiple low kidneys functioning ‘Glomerular filtration rate’ tests. Among the abnormal lab tests, more recent results contributed more to the prediction. The model also indicates regular office visits, no abnormal findings of medical examinations, and taking proper medications decreased the CKD3 risk. Member B had 104 medical encounters in the past 3 years and was predicted to have a low risk of CKD3, because the model didn’t identify diagnoses, procedures, or medications related to kidney disease, and many lab test results, including ‘Glomerular filtration rate’ were within the normal range. The model accurately predicts members A and B and provides interpretable clinical evidence that is validated by clinicians. Without extra effort, the interpretation is generated directly from the model and presented together with the occurrence date. Our model uses the medical data in its most raw format without any further data aggregation, transformation, or mapping. This greatly simplifies the data preparation process, mitigates the chance for error and eliminates post-modeling work needed for traditional model explanation. To our knowledge, this is the first paper on an interpretable deep-learning model using a 3-level attention structure, sourcing both EMR and claim data, including all 4 types of medical data, on the entire Medicare population of a big insurance company, and more importantly, directly generating model interpretation to support user decision. In the future, we plan to enrich the model input by adding patients’ demographics and information from free-texted physician notes.

Keywords: deep learning, interpretability, attention, big data, medical conditions

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Authors: Abhishek S. Shete

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There is nothing new in the use of alcohol made from root crops as a motor fuel. Alcohol is an excellent alternative motor fuel for petrol engines. The reason alcohol fuel has not been fully exploited is that, up until now; gasoline has been cheap, available, and easy to produce. However, nowadays, crude oil is getting scarce, and the historic price difference between alcohol and gasoline is getting narrower. Alcohol fuel can be an important part of the solution for Rwanda because there is tremendous scope to use bulk production of sweet potato into alcohol. The total sweet potato production in both seasons is found to be 1.607.296 tones/year. The average productivity of sweet potato in the country irrespective of seasons is found to be 8.9 tones/ha. If all of the available agricultural surplus were converted to ethanol, alcohol would supply less than 5% of motor fuel needs.

Keywords: root crops, sweet potato, surplus, alcohol

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Authors: Panaya Sudta, Wanchalerm Patanacharoenwong, Prachya Bumrungkun

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As With the evolution of smart grids, ensuring the reliability and efficiency of electrical systems in smart cities has become crucial. This paper proposes a distinct approach that combines advanced machine learning techniques to accurately predict electrical failures and address voltage reliability issues. This approach aims to improve the accuracy and efficiency of reliability evaluations in smart cities. The aim of this research is to develop a comprehensive predictive model that accurately predicts electrical failures and voltage reliability in smart cities. This model integrates RFM analysis, K-means clustering, and LSTM networks to achieve this objective. The research utilizes RFM analysis, traditionally used in customer value assessment, to categorize and analyze electrical components based on their failure recency, frequency, and monetary impact. K-means clustering is employed to segment electrical components into distinct groups with similar characteristics and failure patterns. LSTM networks are used to capture the temporal dependencies and patterns in customer data. This integration of RFM, K-means, and LSTM results in a robust predictive tool for electrical failures and voltage reliability. The proposed model has been tested and validated on diverse electrical utility datasets. The results show a significant improvement in prediction accuracy and reliability compared to traditional methods, achieving an accuracy of 92.78% and an F1-score of 0.83. This research contributes to the proactive maintenance and optimization of electrical infrastructures in smart cities. It also enhances overall energy management and sustainability. The integration of advanced machine learning techniques in the predictive model demonstrates the potential for transforming the landscape of electrical system management within smart cities. The research utilizes diverse electrical utility datasets to develop and validate the predictive model. RFM analysis, K-means clustering, and LSTM networks are applied to these datasets to analyze and predict electrical failures and voltage reliability. The research addresses the question of how accurately electrical failures and voltage reliability can be predicted in smart cities. It also investigates the effectiveness of integrating RFM analysis, K-means clustering, and LSTM networks in achieving this goal. The proposed approach presents a distinct, efficient, and effective solution for predicting and mitigating electrical failures and voltage issues in smart cities. It significantly improves prediction accuracy and reliability compared to traditional methods. This advancement contributes to the proactive maintenance and optimization of electrical infrastructures, overall energy management, and sustainability in smart cities.

Keywords: electrical state prediction, smart grids, data-driven method, long short-term memory, RFM, k-means, machine learning

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Authors: Dalia Elsheakh, Hala Elsadek

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The objective of this paper is to propose a competitive microwave security system that can be applied with reasonable price at museums in Egypt, considering the priceless elements in 23 Egyptian museums countrywide and the lack of good recent security systems even in big ones. The system main goal is to detect valuable targets to ensure their presence in the pre-defined positions in order to protect them from being stolen. The system is based on real time microwave scanning for the required space volume through transmitting RF waves at consecutive angles and detecting the back scattered waves from required objects to detect their existence at pre-specified locations.

Keywords: microwave security system, object locating system, real time locating system (RTLS), antenna array, array electronic scanning

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Authors: Reeta Devi, Hitender Kumar Tyagi, Dinesh Kumar

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In present scenario, cardiovascular problems are growing challenge for researchers and physiologists. As heart disease have no geographic, gender or socioeconomic specific reasons; detecting cardiac irregularities at early stage followed by quick and correct treatment is very important. Electrocardiogram is the finest tool for continuous monitoring of heart activity. Heart rate variability (HRV) is used to measure naturally occurring oscillations between consecutive cardiac cycles. Analysis of this variability is carried out using time domain, frequency domain and non-linear parameters. This paper presents HRV analysis of the online dataset for normal sinus rhythm (taken as healthy subject) and sudden cardiac death (SCD subject) using all three methods computing values for parameters like standard deviation of node to node intervals (SDNN), square root of mean of the sequences of difference between adjacent RR intervals (RMSSD), mean of R to R intervals (mean RR) in time domain, very low-frequency (VLF), low-frequency (LF), high frequency (HF) and ratio of low to high frequency (LF/HF ratio) in frequency domain and Poincare plot for non linear analysis. To differentiate HRV of healthy subject from subject died with SCD, k –nearest neighbor (k-NN) classifier has been used because of its high accuracy. Results show highly reduced values for all stated parameters for SCD subjects as compared to healthy ones. As the dataset used for SCD patients is recording of their ECG signal one hour prior to their death, it is therefore, verified with an accuracy of 95% that proposed algorithm can identify mortality risk of a patient one hour before its death. The identification of a patient’s mortality risk at such an early stage may prevent him/her meeting sudden death if in-time and right treatment is given by the doctor.

Keywords: early stage prediction, heart rate variability, linear and non-linear analysis, sudden cardiac death

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Authors: Anu Soikkeli

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Early 20th century functionalism aimed at generalising living and rationalising construction, thus laying the foundation for the standardisation of construction components and products. From the 1930s onwards, all measurement and quality instructions for building products, different types of building components, descriptions of working methods complying with advisable building practises, planning, measurement and calculation guidelines, terminology, etc. were called standards. Standardisation was regarded as a necessary prerequisite for the mass production of housing. This article examines the early stages of standardisation in Finland in the 1940s and 1950s, as reflected on the working history of an individual architect, Erkki Koiso-Kanttila (1914-2006). In 1950 Koiso-Kanttila was appointed the Head of Design of the Finnish Association of Architects’ Building Standards Committee, a position which he held until 1958. His main responsibilities were the development of the RT Building Information File and compiling of the files.

Keywords: architecture, post WWII period, reconstruction, standardisation

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Authors: Susana Marques

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Research on how store environment cues influence consumers’ store choice decision criteria, such as store operations, product quality, monetary price, store image and sales promotion, is sparse. Especially absent research on the simultaneous impact of multiple store environment cues. The authors propose a comprehensive store choice model that includes: three types of store environment cues as exogenous constructs; various store choice criteria as possible mediating constructs, and store patronage intentions as an endogenous construct. On the basis of testing with a sample of 561 customers of hypermarkets, the model is partially supported. This study used structural equation modelling to test the proposed model.

Keywords: store choice, store patronage, structural equation modelling, retailing

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Authors: Ali Safdari-Vaighani

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Pricing financial contracts on several underlying assets received more and more interest as a demand for complex derivatives. The option pricing under asset price involving jump diffusion processes leads to the partial integral differential equation (PIDEs), which is an extension of the Black-Scholes PDE with a new integral term. The aim of this paper is to show how basket option prices in the jump diffusion models, mainly on the Merton model, can be computed using RBF based approximation methods. For a test problem, the RBF-PU method is applied for numerical solution of partial integral differential equation arising from the two-asset European vanilla put options. The numerical result shows the accuracy and efficiency of the presented method.

Keywords: basket option, jump diffusion, ‎radial basis function, RBF-PUM

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Authors: C. Slim

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Traditional techniques for analyzing time series are based on the notion of stationarity of phenomena under study, but in reality most economic and financial series do not verify this hypothesis, which implies the implementation of specific tools for the detection of such behavior. In this paper, we study nonstationary non-seasonal time series tests in a non-exhaustive manner. We formalize the problem of nonstationary processes with numerical simulations and take stock of their statistical characteristics. The theoretical aspects of some of the most common unit root tests will be discussed. We detail the specification of the tests, showing the advantages and disadvantages of each. The empirical study focuses on the application of these tests to the exchange rate (USD/TND) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Tunisia, in order to compare the Power of these tests with the characteristics of the series.

Keywords: stationarity, unit root tests, economic time series, ADF tests

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Authors: A. Amidah Amrawaty, M. Saleh S. Ali, Darmawan Salman

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The aim of this study was to identify local and non local knowledge in Bali cattle development, to analyze the contestation between local and non-local knowledge. The paradigm used was constructivism paradigm with a qualitative approach. descriptive type of research using case study method. The study was conducted in four villages subjected to Agropolitan Program, i.e. Palakka, Tompo, Galung and Anabanua in Barru District, province of South Sulawesi. The results indicated that the local knowledge of the farmers were: a) knowledge of animal housing, b) knowledge of the prevention and control disease, c) knowledge of the feed, d) knowledge of breed selection, e) knowledge of sharing arrangement, f) knowledge of marketing, Generally, there are three patterns of knowledge contestation namely coexistence, ‘zero sum game’ and hybridization but in this research only coexistence and zero sum game patterns took place, while the pattern of hybridization did not occur.

Keywords: contestation, local knowledge, non-local knowledge, developing of Bali cattle

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Authors: M. Sirhan, S. Bekhor, A. Sidess

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In-service pavements deteriorate with time due to traffic wheel loads, environment, and climate conditions. Pavement deterioration leads to a reduction in their serviceability and structural behavior. Consequently, proper maintenance and rehabilitation (M&R) are necessary actions to keep the in-service pavement network at the desired level of serviceability. Due to resource and financial constraints, the pavement management system (PMS) prioritizes roads most in need of maintenance and rehabilitation action. It recommends a suitable action for each pavement based on the performance and surface condition of each road in the network. The pavement performance and condition are usually quantified and evaluated by different types of roughness-based and stress-based indices. Examples of such indices are Pavement Serviceability Index (PSI), Pavement Serviceability Ratio (PSR), Mean Panel Rating (MPR), Pavement Condition Rating (PCR), Ride Number (RN), Profile Index (PI), International Roughness Index (IRI), and Pavement Condition Index (PCI). PCI is commonly used in PMS as an indicator of the extent of the distresses on the pavement surface. PCI values range between 0 and 100; where 0 and 100 represent a highly deteriorated pavement and a newly constructed pavement, respectively. The PCI value is a function of distress type, severity, and density (measured as a percentage of the total pavement area). PCI is usually calculated iteratively using the 'Paver' program developed by the US Army Corps. The use of soft computing techniques, especially Artificial Neural Network (ANN), has become increasingly popular in the modeling of engineering problems. ANN techniques have successfully modeled the performance of the in-service pavements, due to its efficiency in predicting and solving non-linear relationships and dealing with an uncertain large amount of data. Typical regression models, which require a pre-defined relationship, can be replaced by ANN, which was found to be an appropriate tool for predicting the different pavement performance indices versus different factors as well. Subsequently, the objective of the presented study is to develop and train an ANN model that predicts the PCI values. The model’s input consists of percentage areas of 11 different damage types; alligator cracking, swelling, rutting, block cracking, longitudinal/transverse cracking, edge cracking, shoving, raveling, potholes, patching, and lane drop off, at three severity levels (low, medium, high) for each. The developed model was trained using 536,000 samples and tested on 134,000 samples. The samples were collected and prepared by The National Transport Infrastructure Company. The predicted results yielded satisfactory compliance with field measurements. The proposed model predicted PCI values with relatively low standard deviations, suggesting that it could be incorporated into the PMS for PCI determination. It is worth mentioning that the most influencing variables for PCI prediction are damages related to alligator cracking, swelling, rutting, and potholes.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, computer programming, pavement condition index, pavement management, performance prediction

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Authors: Funda Kul, İsmail Gür

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Pension scheme providers have to price mortality risk by accurate mortality forecasting method. There are many mortality-forecasting methods constructed and used in literature. The Lee-Carter model is the first model to consider stochastic improvement trends in life expectancy. It is still precisely used. Mortality forecasting is done by mortality index in the Lee-Carter model. It is assumed that mortality index fits ARIMA time series model. In this paper, we propose and use dynamic normal inverse gaussian distribution to modeling mortality indes in the Lee-Carter model. Using population mortality data for Italy, France, and Turkey, the model is forecasting capability is investigated, and a comparative analysis with other models is ensured by some well-known benchmarking criterions.

Keywords: mortality, forecasting, lee-carter model, normal inverse gaussian distribution

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Authors: Ibraheem A. K. Mahameed

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The aim of this study is to identify the risks affecting time performance of building construction projects in the West Bank in Palestine from contractors’ viewpoint. 38 risks that might affect time performance of building construction projects were defined through a detailed literature review. These risks have been classified into 6 groups: project, managerial, consultant, financial, external, and construction items. A questionnaire survey was performed to rank the considered risks in terms of severity and frequency. The analysis of the survey indicated that the top five risks affecting time performance of building construction projects in Palestine are: award project to the lowest price, political situation, poor communication and coordination between construction parties, change orders, and financial status of contractor.

Keywords: delay, time performance, construction, building

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Authors: Christos Lampropoulos, Maria Konsta, Vicky Dradaki, Irini Dri, Konstantina Panouria, Tamta Sirbilatze, Ifigenia Apostolou, Vaggelis Lambas, Christina Kordali, Georgios Mavras

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Objectives: Malnutrition in hospitalized patients is related to increased morbidity and mortality. The purpose of our study was to compare various nutritional scores in order to detect the most suitable one for assessing the nutritional status of elderly, hospitalized patients and correlate them with mortality and extension of admission duration, due to patients’ critical condition. Methods: Sample population included 150 patients (78 men, 72 women, mean age 80±8.2). Nutritional status was assessed by Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA full, short-form), Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool (MUST) and short Nutritional Appetite Questionnaire (sNAQ). Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values and ROC curves were assessed after adjustment for the cause of current admission, a known prognostic factor according to previously applied multivariate models. Primary endpoints were mortality (from admission until 6 months afterwards) and duration of hospitalization, compared to national guidelines for closed consolidated medical expenses. Results: Concerning mortality, MNA (short-form and full) and SNAQ had similar, low sensitivity (25.8%, 25.8% and 35.5% respectively) while MUST had higher sensitivity (48.4%). In contrast, all the questionnaires had high specificity (94%-97.5%). Short-form MNA and sNAQ had the best positive predictive value (72.7% and 78.6% respectively) whereas all the questionnaires had similar negative predictive value (83.2%-87.5%). MUST had the highest ROC curve (0.83) in contrast to the rest questionnaires (0.73-0.77). With regard to extension of admission duration, all four scores had relatively low sensitivity (48.7%-56.7%), specificity (68.4%-77.6%), positive predictive value (63.1%-69.6%), negative predictive value (61%-63%) and ROC curve (0.67-0.69). Conclusion: MUST questionnaire is more advantageous in predicting mortality due to its higher sensitivity and ROC curve. None of the nutritional scores is suitable for prediction of extended hospitalization.

Keywords: duration of admission, malnutrition, nutritional assessment scores, prognostic factors for mortality

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Authors: Kozik Renata, Leśniak Agnieszka, Plebankiewicz Edyta

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Contracting authorities in the public sector are obligated to apply the principles provided for in the Polish law for the evaluation and selection of contractors. To analyze the methods of contractors, applied in practice by public clients, the notices of contract award results for construction works were analyzed. The analysis shows that the procedure selected more and more often is open to competitive bidding, where the assessment of the competence of contractors is not very precise, as well as non-competitive bidding, i.e. single source procurement. The share of procurement procedures, where the only criterion is price, is increasing. The solution to the problems existing here might be the introduction of one of the forms of pre-selection of contractors. The article also briefly discusses verification systems for companies applying for public contracts used in EU countries.

Keywords: certification, contractors selection, open tendering, public investors

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Authors: Mekdes Getu Chekol, Biniam Tedros Kahsay, Rahwa Berihu Haile

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The main objective of this study is to investigate the marketing strategy practice in the Case of St. George Brewery Factory in Addis Ababa. One of the core activities in a Business Company to stay in business is having a well-developed marketing strategy. It assessed how the marketing strategies were practiced in the company to achieve its goals aligned with segmentation, target market, positioning, and the marketing mix elements to satisfy customer requirements. Using primary and secondary data, the study is conducted by using both qualitative and quantitative approaches. The primary data was collected through open and closed-ended questionnaires. Considering the size of the population is small, the selection of the respondents was carried out by using a census. The finding shows that the company used all the 4 Ps of the marketing mix elements in its marketing strategies and provided quality products at affordable prices by promoting its products by using high and effective advertising mechanisms. The product availability and accessibility are admirable with the practices of both direct and indirect distribution channels. On the other hand, the company has identified its target customers, and the company’s market segmentation practice is geographical location. Communication effectiveness between the marketing department and other departments is very good. The adjusted R2 model explains 61.6% of the marketing strategy practice variance by product, price, promotion, and place. The remaining 38.4% of variation in the dependent variable was explained by other factors not included in this study. The result reveals that all four independent variables, product, price, promotion, and place, have a positive beta sign, proving that predictor variables have a positive effect on that of the predicting dependent variable marketing strategy practice. Even though the marketing strategies of the company are effectively practiced, there are some problems that the company faces while implementing them. These are infrastructure problems, economic problems, intensive competition in the market, shortage of raw materials, seasonality of consumption, socio-cultural problems, and the time and cost of awareness creation for the customers. Finally, the authors suggest that the company better develop a long-range view and try to implement a more structured approach to attain information about potential customers, competitor’s actions, and market intelligence within the industry. In addition, we recommend conducting the study by increasing the sample size and including different marketing factors.

Keywords: marketing strategy, market segmentation, target marketing, market positioning, marketing mix

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