Search results for: traffic prediction

Authors: Muksalmina

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Transportation plays an important role in people's daily activities but is often marred by traffic accidents. In Indonesia, traffic accidents are the third leading cause of death after coronary heart disease and tuberculosis, according to the World Health Organization (2013). Several roads in East Aceh District are strategic access points for economic growth in the Aceh region. There were 446 traffic accidents in 2023, which is the highest case in the last five years. This study aims to analyze black spot locations on national roads in East Aceh District and evaluate road safety deficiencies in the area. The research methodology began by selecting the locations with the highest accident rates based on data from East Aceh Police from 2019-2023. Next, Average Daily Traffic (ADT) was measured by projecting population growth data. The analysis of road safety deficiencies included measurements of road geometrics, traffic signs and markings, and traffic volumes at black spot locations. The study results showed deficiencies in lane width, shoulder width, and inadequate road safety facilities at several locations. Recommendations for improvements include increasing lane and shoulder widths and adding signs and markings to improve safety. This study is expected to serve as a reference for the government and relevant stakeholders in improving traffic safety in East Aceh District.

Keywords: black spot, traffic accident, severity index, road safety

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Authors: Ghazwan Al-Haji

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Traffic safety has become a major concern in Southeast Asia due to the increasing number of road accidents resulting in fatalities and injuries. Southeast Asia has one of the highest road traffic fatality rates in the world, in terms of both population and number of cars, nearly six times higher than the EU region. One of the reasons for this concerning trend is the increasing share of motorcycles as a form of transportation throughout Southeast Asia. The purpose of this study is to benchmark traffic safety situations and statistics in six countries in Asia and the EU, which Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Italy, Portugal and Sweden. The research will assess the priorities and causes of road accidents in the target nations. Further, the study will analyze the existing practices and promote best practices that can be implemented toward safer roads in Asian target countries. In order to achieve this goal, the study categorizes various factors contributing to traffic accidents and best practices into 4 pillars (Safer Behavior, Safer Roads, Safer Vehicles and Road Safety Management). The result of the study consists of a list of recommendations that can be applied by policymakers to promote safer roads in Asia towards 2030. The study is co-financed by the EU project ASIASAFE.

Keywords: traffic safety, ASIASAFE, Southeast Asia, EU project

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Authors: Jamal Almatawah, Hamad Matar, Abdulsalam Altemeemi

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The World Health Organization (WHO) has recognized environmental noise as harmful pollution that causes adverse psychosocial and physiologic effects on human health. The motor vehicle is considered to be one of the main source of noise pollution. It is a universal phenomenon, and it has grown to the point that it has become a major concern for both the public and policymakers. The aim of this paper, therefore, is to investigate the Traffic noise levels and the contributing factors that affect its level, such as traffic volume, heavy-vehicle Speed and other metrological factors in Ishbiliyah as a sample of a residential area in Kuwait. Three types of roads were selected in Ishbiliyah expressway, major arterial and collector street. The other source of noise that interferes the traffic noise has also been considered in this study. Traffic noise level is measured and analyzed using the Bruel & Kjaer outdoor sound level meter 2250-L (2250 Light). The Count-Cam2 Video Camera has been used to collect the peak and off-peak traffic count. Ambient Weather WM-5 Handheld Weather Station is used for metrological factors such as temperature, humidity and wind speed. Also, the spot speed was obtained using the radar speed: Decatur Genesis model GHD-KPH. All the measurement has been detected at the same time (simultaneously). The results showed that the traffic noise level is over the allowable limit on all types of roads. The average equivalent noise level (LAeq) for the Expressway, Major arterial and Collector Street was 74.3 dB(A), 70.47 dB(A) and 60.84 dB(A), respectively. In addition, a Positive Correlation coefficient between the traffic noise versus traffic volume and between traffic noise versus 85th percentile speed was obtained. However, there was no significant relation and Metrological factors. Abnormal vehicle noise due to poor maintenance or user-enhanced exhaust noise was found to be one of the highest factors that affected the overall traffic noise reading.

Keywords: traffic noise, residential area, pollution, vehicle noise

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Authors: C. B. Masera, M. Imprialou, L. Budd, C. Morton

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Even though signalised intersections are necessary for urban road traffic management, they can act as bottlenecks and disrupt traffic operations. Interrupted traffic flow causes congestion, delays, stop-and-go conditions (i.e. excessive acceleration/deceleration) and longer journey times. Vehicle and infrastructure connectivity offers the potential to provide improved new services with additional functions of assisting drivers. This paper focuses on one of the applications of vehicle-to-infrastructure communication namely Green Light Optimal Speed Advisory (GLOSA). To assess the effectiveness of GLOSA in the urban road network, an integrated microscopic traffic simulation framework is built into VISSIM software. Vehicle movements and vehicle-infrastructure communications are simulated through the interface of External Driver Model. A control algorithm is developed for recommending an optimal speed that is continuously updated in every time step for all vehicles approaching a signal-controlled point. This algorithm allows vehicles to pass a traffic signal without stopping or to minimise stopping times at a red phase. This study is performed with all connected vehicles at 100% penetration rate. Conventional vehicles are also simulated in the same network as a reference. A straight road segment composed of two opposite directions with two traffic lights per lane is studied. The simulation is implemented under 150 vehicles per hour and 200 per hour traffic volume conditions to identify how different traffic densities influence the benefits of GLOSA. The results indicate that traffic flow is improved by the application of GLOSA. According to this study, vehicles passed through the traffic lights more smoothly, and waiting times were reduced by up to 28 seconds. Average delays decreased for the entire network by 86.46% and 83.84% under traffic densities of 150 vehicles per hour per lane and 200 vehicles per hour per lane, respectively.

Keywords: connected vehicles, GLOSA, intelligent transport systems, vehicle-to-infrastructure communication

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Authors: Attiq Ur Rahman Dogar, Sohaib Ishaq

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Pakistan had experienced rapid motorization in the last decade. Due to the soft leasing schemes of banks and increase in average household income, even the middle class can now afford cars. The public transit system is inadequate and sparse. Due to these reasons, traffic demand on urban arterials has increased manifold. Poor urban transit planning and aging transportation systems have resulted in traffic congestion. The focus of this study is to improve traffic flow on a section of N-5 passing through the Rawalpindi downtown. Present efforts aim to carry out the analysis of traffic conditions on this section and to investigate the impact of traffic signal co-ordination on travel time. In addition to signal co-ordination, we also examined the effect of different infrastructure improvements on the travel time. After the economic analysis of alternatives and discussions, the improvement plan for Rawalpindi downtown urban arterial section is proposed for implementation.

Keywords: signal coordination, infrastructure intervention, infrastructure improvement, cycle length, fuel consumption cost, travel time cost, economic analysis, travel time, Rawalpindi, Pakistan, traffic signals

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Authors: Chaitanya Varma, Arpan Mehar

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The present study demonstrates the procedure to analyse speed data collected on various four-lane divided sections in India. Field data for the study was collected at different straight and curved sections on rural highways with the help of radar speed gun and video camera. The data collected at the sections were analysed and parameters pertain to speed distributions were estimated. The different statistical distribution was analysed on vehicle type speed data and for mixed traffic speed data. It was found that vehicle type speed data was either follows the normal distribution or Log-normal distribution, whereas the mixed traffic speed data follows more than one type of statistical distribution. The most common fit observed on mixed traffic speed data were Beta distribution and Weibull distribution. The separate operating speed model based on traffic and roadway geometric parameters were proposed in the present study. The operating speed model with traffic parameters and curve geometry parameters were established. Two different operating speed models were proposed with variables 1/R and Ln(R) and were found to be realistic with a different range of curve radius. The models developed in the present study are simple and realistic and can be used for forecasting operating speed on four-lane highways.

Keywords: highway, mixed traffic flow, modeling, operating speed

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Authors: Anum Ali, Kashaf ad Dooja, Asif Saleem

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The future smart cities trend will be towards Internet of Things (IoT); IoT creates dynamic connections in a ubiquitous manner. Smart cities offer ease and flexibility for daily life matters. By using small devices that are connected to cloud servers based on IoT, network traffic between these devices is growing exponentially, whose security is a concerned issue, since ratio of cyber attack may make the network traffic vulnerable. This paper discusses the latest machine learning approaches in related work further to tackle the increasing rate of cyber attacks, machine learning algorithm is applied to IoT-based network traffic data. The proposed algorithm train itself on data and identify different sections of devices interaction by using supervised learning which is considered as a classifier related to a specific IoT device class. The simulation results clearly identify the attacks and produce fewer false detections.

Keywords: IoT, traffic security, deep learning, classification

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Authors: Liu Canqi, Zeng Junsheng

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This study identifies two typical bottlenecks that occur when a vehicle cannot change lanes: car following and car stopping. The ideas of traffic field and traffic mass are presented in this work. When there are other vehicles in front of the target vehicle within a particular distance, a force is created that affects the target vehicle's driving speed. The characteristics of the driver and the vehicle collectively determine the traffic mass; the driving speed of the vehicle and external variables have no bearing on this. From a physical level, this study examines the vehicle's bottleneck when following a car, identifies the outside factors that have an impact on how it drives, takes into account that the vehicle will transform kinetic energy into potential energy during deceleration, and builds a calculation model for traffic mass. The energy-time conversion coefficient is created from an economic standpoint utilizing the social average wage level and the average cost of motor fuel. Vissim simulation program measures the vehicle's deceleration distance and delays under the Wiedemann car-following model. The difference between the measured value of deceleration delay acquired by simulation and the theoretical value calculated by the model is compared using the conversion calculation model of traffic mass and deceleration delay. The experimental data demonstrate that the model is reliable since the error rate between the theoretical calculation value of the deceleration delay obtained by the model and the measured value of simulation results is less than 10%. The article's conclusion is that the traffic field has an impact on moving cars on the road and that physical and socioeconomic factors should be taken into account while studying vehicle-following behavior. The deceleration delay value of a vehicle's driving and traffic mass have a socioeconomic relationship that can be utilized to calculate the energy-time conversion coefficient when dealing with the bottleneck of cars stopping and starting.

Keywords: traffic field, social economics, traffic mass, bottleneck, deceleration delay

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Authors: Bo Yang, Christopher Monterola

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Urban intersection control without the use of the traffic light has the potential to vastly improve the efficiency of the urban traffic flow. For most proposals in the literature, such lightless intersection control depends on the mass market commercialization of highly intelligent autonomous vehicles (AV), which limits the prospects of near future implementation. We present an efficient lightless intersection traffic control scheme that only requires Level 1 AV as defined by NHTSA. The technological barriers of such lightless intersection control are thus very low. Our algorithm can also accommodate a mixture of AVs and conventional vehicles. We also carry out large scale numerical analysis to illustrate the feasibility, safety and robustness, comfort level, and control efficiency of our intersection control scheme.

Keywords: intersection control, autonomous vehicles, traffic modelling, intelligent transport system

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Authors: Mohammad Zavid Parvez, Manoranjan Paul

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A seizure prediction method is proposed by extracting global features using phase correlation between adjacent epochs for detecting relative changes and local features using fluctuation/deviation within an epoch for determining fine changes of different EEG signals. A classifier and a regularization technique are applied for the reduction of false alarms and improvement of the overall prediction accuracy. The experiments show that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art methods and provides high prediction accuracy (i.e., 97.70%) with low false alarm using EEG signals in different brain locations from a benchmark data set.

Keywords: Epilepsy, seizure, phase correlation, fluctuation, deviation.

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Authors: Oscar Norman Nekesa, Yoshitaka Kajita

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Tom Mboya Street is a vital urban corridor within the spectrum of Nairobi city, it experiences high volumes of pedestrian and vehicular traffic. Despite past intervention measures to lessen this catastrophe, rates have remained high. This highlights significant safety concerns that need urgent attention. This study investigates the correlation and pedestrian accident predictability with significant independent variables using multiple linear regression to model to develop effective mobility management strategies for accident mitigation. The methodology involves collecting and analyzing data on pedestrian accidents and various related independent variables. Data sources include the National Transport and Safety Authority (NTSA), Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, and Nairobi City County records, covering five years. This study aims to investigate that traffic volumes (pedestrian and vehicle), Vehicular speed, human factors, illegal parking, policy issues, urban-land use, built environment, traffic signals conditions, inadequate lighting, and insufficient traffic control measures significantly have predictability with the rate of pedestrian accidents. Explanatory variables related to road design and geometry are significant in predictor models for the Tom Mboya Road link but less influential in junction along the 5 km stretch road models. The most impactful variable across all models was vehicular traffic flow. The study recommends infrastructural improvements, enhanced enforcement, and public awareness campaigns to reduce accidents and improve urban mobility. These insights can inform policy-making and urban planning to enhance pedestrian safety along the dense packed Tom Mboya Street and similar urban settings. The findings will inform evidence-based interventions to enhance pedestrian safety and improve urban mobility.

Keywords: multiple linear regression, urban mobility, traffic management, Nairobi, Tom Mboya street, infrastructure conditions., pedestrian safety, correlation and prediction

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Authors: Aneesh Babu, S. P. Anusha

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A dynamic signal control system combines traditional traffic lights with an array of sensors to intelligently control vehicle and pedestrian traffic. The present study focus on evaluating the performance of dynamic signal control systems for mixed traffic conditions. Data collected from four different approaches to a typical four-legged signalized intersection at Trivandrum city in the Kerala state of India is used for the study. Performance of three other dynamic signal control methods, namely (i) Non-sequential method (ii) Webster design for consecutive signal cycle using flow as input, and (iii) dynamic signal control using RFID delay as input, were evaluated. The evaluation of the dynamic signal control systems was carried out using a calibrated VISSIM microsimulation model. Python programming was used to integrate the dynamic signal control algorithm through the COM interface in VISSIM. The intersection delay obtained from different dynamic signal control methods was compared with the delay obtained from fixed signal control. Based on the study results, it was observed that the intersection delay was reduced significantly by using dynamic signal control methods. The dynamic signal control method using delay from RFID sensors resulted in a higher percentage reduction in delay and hence is a suitable choice for implementation under mixed traffic conditions. The developed dynamic signal control strategies can be implemented in ITS applications under mixed traffic conditions.

Keywords: dynamic signal control, intersection delay, mixed traffic conditions, RFID sensors

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Authors: Okyu Kwon, Dongho Kang, Byungsik Kim, Seungkwon Jung

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We propose a technique to measure the impact of loss of traffic function in a particular area to surrounding areas. The proposed method is applied to the city of Seoul, which is the capital of South Korea, with a population of about ten million. Based on the actual road network in Seoul, we construct an abstract road network between 1kmx1km grid cells. The link weight of the abstract road network is re-adjusted considering traffic volume measured at several survey points. On the modified abstract road network, we evaluate the traffic vulnerability by calculating a network measure of betweenness centrality (BC) for every single grid cells. This study analyzes traffic impacts caused by road dysfunction due to heavy rainfall in urban areas. We could see the change of the BC value in all other grid cells by calculating the BC value once again when the specific grid cell lost its traffic function, that is, when the node disappeared on the grid-based road network. The results show that it is appropriate to use the sum of the BC variation of other cells as the influence index of each lattice cell on traffic. This research was supported by a grant (2017-MOIS31-004) from Fundamental Technology Development Program for Extreme Disaster Response funded by Korean Ministry of Interior and Safety (MOIS).

Keywords: vulnerability, road network, beweenness centrality, heavy rainfall, road impact

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Authors: Jeena R. S., Sukesh Kumar A.

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Stroke is one of the major reasons of adult disability and morbidity in many of the developing countries like India. Early diagnosis of stroke is essential for timely prevention and cure. Various conventional statistical methods and computational intelligent models have been developed for predicting the risk and outcome of stroke. This research work focuses on a multilevel approach for predicting the occurrence of stroke based on various risk factors and invasive techniques like retinal imaging. This risk prediction model can aid in clinical decision making and help patients to have an improved and reliable risk prediction.

Keywords: prediction, retinal imaging, risk factors, stroke

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Authors: Xiaoyun Zhao, Rami Darwish, Anna Pernestål

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Automated vehicles (AVs) have the potential to enhance road capacity, improving road safety and traffic efficiency. Research and development on AVs have been going on for many years. However, when the complicated traffic rules and real situations interacted, AVs fail to make decisions on contradicting situations, and are not able to have control in all conditions due to highly dynamic driving scenarios. This limits AVs’ usage and restricts the full potential benefits that they can bring. Furthermore, regulations, infrastructure development, and public acceptance cannot keep up at the same pace as technology breakthroughs. Facing these challenges, this paper proposes automated vehicle traffic control tower (AVTCT) acting as a safe, efficient and integrated solution for AV control. It introduces a concept of AVTCT for control, management, decision-making, communication and interaction with various aspects in transportation. With the prototype demonstrations and simulations, AVTCT has the potential to overcome the control challenges with AVs and can facilitate AV reaching their full potential. Possible functionalities, benefits as well as challenges of AVTCT are discussed, which set the foundation for the conceptual model, simulation and real application of AVTCT.

Keywords: automated vehicle, connectivity and automation, intelligent transport system, traffic control, traffic safety

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Authors: K. D. Sharma, M. Parida, S. S. Jain, Anju Saini, V. K. Katiyar

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Air quality models form one of the most important components of an urban air quality management plan. Various statistical modeling techniques (regression, multiple regression and time series analysis) have been used to predict air pollution concentrations in the urban environment. These models calculate pollution concentrations due to observed traffic, meteorological and pollution data after an appropriate relationship has been obtained empirically between these parameters. Artificial neural network (ANN) is increasingly used as an alternative tool for modeling the pollutants from vehicular traffic particularly in urban areas. In the present paper, an attempt has been made to model traffic air pollution, specifically CO concentration using neural networks. In case of CO concentration, two scenarios were considered. First, with only classified traffic volume input and the second with both classified traffic volume and meteorological variables. The results showed that CO concentration can be predicted with good accuracy using artificial neural network (ANN).

Keywords: air quality management, artificial neural network, meteorological variables, statistical modeling

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Authors: Ujjal Chattaraj, M. Raviteja, Chaitanya Aemala

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Over the years vehicular traffic has been given priority over pedestrian traffic. With the increase of population in cities, pedestrian traffic is increasing day by day. Pedestrian safety has become a matter of concern for the Traffic Engineers. Pedestrian comfort is primary important for the Engineers who design different pedestrian facilities. Pedestrian comfort and safety can be measured in terms of different level of service (LOS) of the facilities. In this study video data on pedestrian movement have been collected from different railway foot over bridges (FOB) in India. The level of service of those facilities has been analyzed. A cellular automata based model has been formulated to mimic the route choice behaviour of the pedestrians on the foot over bridges.

Keywords: cellular automata model, foot over bridge, level of service, pedestrian

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Authors: Edwin Hidayat, Redi Yulianto, Disi Hanafiah

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On the one hand, parameters which are used for determining the number of lane on the new road construction are average annual average daily traffic (AADT) and peak hour factor (K-factor). On the other hand, the value of K-factor listed in the guidelines and manual for road planning in Indonesia is a value of adoption or adaptation from foreign guidelines or manuals. Thus, the value is less suitable for Indonesian condition due to differences in road conditions, vehicle type, and driving behavior. The purpose of this study is to provide an example on how to determine k-factor values at a road segment with particular conditions in north coast road, West Java. The methodology is started with collecting traffic volume data for 24 hours over 365 days using PLATO (Automated Traffic Counter) with the approach of video image processing. Then, the traffic volume data is divided into per hour and analyzed by comparing the peak traffic volume in the 30th hour (or other) with the AADT in the same year. The analysis has resulted that for the 30th peak hour the K-factor is 0.97. This value can be used for planning road geometry or evaluating the road capacity performance for the 4/2D interurban road.

Keywords: road geometry, K-factor, annual average daily traffic, north coast road

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Authors: Vinko Viducic, Jelena Žanic Mikulicic, Maja Racic, Kristina Sladojevic

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The research presented in this paper has been focused on analyzing the impact of traffic on the sustainable development of tourism in Croatia's Dubrovacko-Neretvanska County by the year 2020, based on the figures and trends reported in 2014 and using the relevant variables that characterise the synergy of traffic and tourism in, speaking from the geographic viewpoint, the most problematic county in the Republic of Croatia. The basic hypothesis has been confirmed through scientifically obtained research results, through the quantification of the model's variables and the direct growth rates of the designed model. On the basis of scientific insights into the sustainable development of traffic and tourism in Dubrovacko-Neretvanska County, it is possible to propose a new information model for traffic at the service of the sustainable development of tourism in the County for the period 2014-2020.

Keywords: environment protection, hotel industry, private sector, quantification

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Authors: Amara Rafik, Mostefa Belhadj Aissa

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Radar data is one of the many data sources used by ATM Air Traffic Management systems. These data come from air navigation radar antennas. These radars intercept signals emitted by the various aircraft crossing the controlled airspace and calculate the position of these aircraft and retransmit their positions to the Air Traffic Management System. For greater reliability, these radars are positioned in such a way as to allow their coverage areas to overlap. An aircraft will therefore be detected by at least one of these radars. However, the position coordinates of the same aircraft and sent by these different radars are not necessarily identical. Therefore, the ATM system must calculate a single position (radar track) which will ultimately be sent to the control position and displayed on the air traffic controller's monitor. There are several techniques for calculating the radar track. Furthermore, the geographical nature of the problem requires the use of a Geographic Information System (GIS), i.e. a geographical database on the one hand and geographical processing. The objective of this work is to propose a GIS for traffic simulation which reconstructs the evolution over time of aircraft positions from a multi-source radar data set and by applying these different techniques.

Keywords: ATM, GIS, radar data, simulation

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Authors: Kayijuka Idrissa

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This work investigates a mathematical study for traffic flow and traffic density in Kigali city roads and the data collected from the national police of Rwanda in 2012. While working on this topic, some mathematical models were used in order to analyze and compare traffic variables. This work has been carried out on Kigali roads specifically at roundabouts from Kigali Business Center (KBC) to Prince House as our study sites. In this project, we used some mathematical tools to analyze the data collected and to understand the relationship between traffic variables. We applied the Poisson distribution method to analyze and to know the number of accidents occurred in this section of the road which is from KBC to Prince House. The results show that the accidents that occurred in 2012 were at very high rates due to the fact that this section has a very narrow single lane on each side which leads to high congestion of vehicles, and consequently, accidents occur very frequently. Using the data of speeds and densities collected from this section of road, we found that the increment of the density results in a decrement of the speed of the vehicle. At the point where the density is equal to the jam density the speed becomes zero. The approach is promising in capturing sudden changes on flow patterns and is open to be utilized in a series of intelligent management strategies and especially in noncurrent congestion effect detection and control.

Keywords: statistical methods, traffic flow, Poisson distribution, car moving technics

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Authors: Srinivas Peri, Siva Abhishek Sirivella, Tejaswini Kallakuri, Uzair Ahmad

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Effective traffic management and infrastructure planning are crucial for the development of smart cities and intelligent transportation systems. This study addresses the challenge of data scarcity by generating realistic synthetic traffic data using the PeMS-Bay dataset, improving the accuracy and reliability of predictive modeling. Advanced synthetic data generation techniques, including TimeGAN, GaussianCopula, and PAR Synthesizer, are employed to produce synthetic data that replicates the statistical and structural characteristics of real-world traffic. Future integration of Spatial-Temporal Generative Adversarial Networks (ST-GAN) is planned to capture both spatial and temporal correlations, further improving data quality and realism. The performance of each synthetic data generation model is evaluated against real-world data to identify the best models for accurately replicating traffic patterns. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks are utilized to model and predict complex temporal dependencies within traffic patterns. This comprehensive approach aims to pinpoint areas with low vehicle counts, uncover underlying traffic issues, and inform targeted infrastructure interventions. By combining GAN-based synthetic data generation with LSTM-based traffic modeling, this study supports data-driven decision-making that enhances urban mobility, safety, and the overall efficiency of city planning initiatives.

Keywords: GAN, long short-term memory, synthetic data generation, traffic management

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Authors: Chun-Lin Zhang, Min Wan

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With the upgrade development of the tourism industry from the simple sightseeing tour to the leisure and vacation, people's travel idea has undergone a fundamental change. More and more people begin to pursue liberal and personal tourism, so self-driving tourism has become the main form of current tourism activities. With the self-driving tourism representing the general trend, the importance of convenient tourism transportation and perfect road traffic signs have become more and more prominent. A clear urban road traffic signs can help visitors quickly identify the direction and distance to the tourism destination. The purpose of this article is analyzing the planning of urban road traffic signs which can bring positive impact on the participation in the recreation involved of self-driving tourists. The content of this article is divided into three parts. Based on the literature review and theoretical analysis, the first part constructs a structural variance model. The model is from three dimensions: the attention of the self-driving tourists to the urban traffic signs along the road, the perception of the self-driving tourists to the road traffic signs itself, the perceptions of the self-driving tourists to the tourism destination information on the traffic signs. Through this model, the paper aims to explore the influence of the urban road traffic signs to the leisure psychological involvement and leisure behavior involvement of the self-driving tourists. The second part aims to verify through the hypothesis model the questionnaire survey and come to preliminary conclusions. The preliminary conclusions are as follows: firstly, the color, shape, size, setting mode and occurrence frequency of urban road traffic sign have significant influence on the leisure psychological involvement and leisure behavior involvement of the self-driving tourists. Secondly, the influence on the leisure behavior involvement is obviously higher than the influence on the leisure psychological involvement. Thirdly, the information about the tourism destination marked on the urban road traffic signs has not obviously influence on the leisure psychological involvement, but it has distinct influence on the leisure behavior involvement of self-driving tourists. The third part puts forward that the planning of urban road traffic signs should focus on the angle of the impact of road traffic signs on people's psychology and behavior. On the basis of the above conclusions, the paper researches the color, shape, size, setting mode and information labeling of urban road traffic signs so that they can preferably satisfy the demand of the leisure involvement of self-driving tourists.

Keywords: leisure involvement, self-driving tourism, structural equation, urban road traffic signs

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Authors: Sanja Šurdonja, Aleksandra Deluka-Tibljaš, Mirna Klobučar, Irena Ištoka Otković

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Roundabouts are a common choice in the case of reconstruction of an intersection, whether it is to improve the capacity of the intersection or traffic safety, especially in urban conditions. The regulation for the design of roundabouts is often related to driving culture, the tradition of using this type of intersection, etc. Individual values in the regulation are usually recommended in a wide range (this is the case in Croatian regulation), and the final design of a roundabout largely depends on the designer's experience and his/her choice of design elements. Therefore, before-after analyses are a good way to monitor the performance of roundabouts and possibly improve the recommendations of the regulation. This paper presents a comprehensive before-after analysis of a roundabout on the country road network near Rijeka, Croatia. The analysis is based on a thorough collection of traffic data (operating speeds and traffic load) and design elements data, both before and after the reconstruction into a roundabout. At the chosen location, the roundabout solution aimed to improve capacity and traffic safety. Therefore, the paper analyzed the collected data to see if the roundabout achieved the expected effect. A traffic microsimulation model (VISSIM) of the roundabout was created based on the real collected data, and the influence of the increase of traffic load and different traffic structures, as well as of the selected design elements on the capacity of the roundabout, were analyzed. Also, through the analysis of operating speeds and potential conflicts by application of the Surrogate Safety Assessment Model (SSAM), the traffic safety effect of the roundabout was analyzed. The results of this research show the practical value of before-after analysis as an indicator of roundabout effectiveness at a specific location. The application of a microsimulation model provides a practical method for analyzing intersection functionality from a capacity and safety perspective in present and changed traffic and design conditions.

Keywords: before-after analysis, operating speed, capacity, design.

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Authors: Saeed Sayyad Hagh Shomar

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Traffic congestion pricing – as a strategy in travel demand management in urban areas to reduce traffic congestion, air pollution and noise pollution – has drawn many attentions towards itself. Unlike the satisfying findings in this method, there are still problems in determining the best functional congestion pricing scheme with regard to the situation. The so-called problems in this process will result in further complications and even the scheme failure. That is why having proper knowledge of the significance of congestion pricing schemes and the effective factors in choosing them can lead to the success of this strategy. In this study, first, a variety of traffic congestion pricing schemes and their components are introduced; then, their functional usage is discussed. Next, by analyzing and comparing the barriers, limitations and advantages, the selection criteria of pricing schemes are described. The results, accordingly, show that the selection of the best scheme depends on various parameters. Finally, based on examining the effective parameters, it is concluded that the implementation of area-based schemes (cordon and zonal) has been more successful in non-diversion of traffic. That is considering the topology of the cities and the fact that traffic congestion is often created in the city centers, area-based schemes would be notably functional and appropriate.

Keywords: congestion pricing, demand management, flat toll, variable toll

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Authors: Muhammad Awais Shafique, Eiji Hato, Hideki Yaginuma

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Recently GPS data is used in a lot of studies to automatically reconstruct travel patterns for trip survey. The aim is to minimize the use of questionnaire surveys and travel diaries so as to reduce their negative effects. In this paper data acquired from GPS and accelerometer embedded in smart phones is utilized to predict the mode of transportation used by the phone carrier. For prediction, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) are employed. Moreover a unique method to improve the prediction results from these algorithms is also proposed. Results suggest that the prediction accuracy of AdaBoost after improvement is relatively better than the rest.

Keywords: accelerometer, AdaBoost, GPS, mode prediction, support vector machine

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Authors: Han Bai, Tong Zhang, Lemei Yu, Doudou Xie, Liang Zhao

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Road transition design on freeway tunnel entrance and exit is one vital factor in realizing smooth transition and improving traveling safety for vehicles. The goal of this research is to develop a horizontal road transition design tool that considers the transition technology of traffic capacity consistency to explore its accommodation mechanism. The influencing factors of capacity are synthesized and a modified capacity calculation model focusing on the influence of road width and lateral clearance is developed based on the VISSIM simulation to calculate the width of road transition sections. To keep the traffic capacity consistency, the right side of the transition section of the tunnel entrance and exit is divided into three parts: front arc, an intermediate transition section, and end arc; an optimization design on each transition part is conducted to improve the capacity stability and horizontal alignment transition. A case study on the Panlong Tunnel in Ji-Qing freeway illustrates the application of the tool.

Keywords: traffic safety, road transition, freeway tunnel, traffic capacity

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Authors: Ting (Grace) Lin, Jianhong (Cecilia) Xia, Todd Robinson

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Accessibility analysis, examining people’s ability to access facilities and destinations, is a fundamental assessment for transport planning, policy making, and social exclusion research. Dynamic accessibility which measures accessibility in real-time traffic environment has been an advanced accessibility indicator in transport research. It is also a useful indicator to help travelers to understand travel time daily variability, assists traffic engineers to monitor traffic congestions, and finally develop effective strategies in order to mitigate traffic congestions. This research involved real-time traffic information by collecting travel time data with 15-minute interval via the TomTom^® API. A framework for measuring dynamic accessibility was then developed based on the gravity theory and accessibility dichotomy theory through space and time interpolation. Finally, the dynamic accessibility can be derived at any given time and location under dynamic accessibility spatial analysis framework.

Keywords: dynamic accessibility, hot spot, transport research, TomTom® API

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Authors: Carl van Walraven, Meltem Tuna

Abstract:

Background: Network meta-analysis (NMA) quantifies the relative efficacy of 3 or more interventions from studies containing a subgroup of interventions. This study applied the analytical approach of NMA to quantify the relative accuracy of prediction models with distinct inclusion criteria that are evaluated on a common population (‘concurrent external validation’). Methods: We simulated binary events in 5000 patients using a known risk function. We biased the risk function and modified its precision by pre-specified amounts to create 15 prediction models with varying accuracy and distinct patient applicability. Prediction model accuracy was measured using the Scaled Brier Score (SBS). Overall prediction model accuracy was measured using fixed-effects methods that accounted for model applicability patterns. Prediction model accuracy was summarized as the Network Relative Model Accuracy (NeRMA) Score which ranges from -∞ through 0 (accuracy of random guessing) to 1 (accuracy of most accurate model in concurrent external validation). Results: The unbiased prediction model had the highest SBS. The NeRMA score correctly ranked all simulated prediction models by the extent of bias from the known risk function. A SAS macro and R-function was created to implement the NeRMA Score. Conclusions: The NeRMA Score makes it possible to quantify the accuracy of binomial prediction models having distinct inclusion criteria in a concurrent external validation.

Keywords: prediction model accuracy, scaled brier score, fixed effects methods, concurrent external validation

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Authors: Arvinder Kaur, Deepti Chopra

Abstract:

Software Entropy Metrics for bug prediction have been validated on various software systems by different researchers. In our previous research, we have validated that Software Entropy Metrics calculated for Mozilla subsystem’s predict the future bugs reasonably well. In this study, the Software Entropy metrics are calculated for a subsystem of Android and it is noticed that these metrics are not suitable for bug prediction. The results are compared with a subsystem of Mozilla and a comparison is made between the two software systems to determine the reasons why Software Entropy metrics are not applicable for Android.

Keywords: android, bug prediction, mining software repositories, software entropy

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