Search results for: flexible satellite

Authors: Nikhil Padhye

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Recently a new phenomenon for bonding of polymeric films in solid-state, at ambient temperatures well below the glass transition temperature of the polymer, has been reported. This is achieved by bulk plastic compression of polymeric films held in contact. Here we analyze the process of cold-rolling of polymeric films via finite element simulations and illustrate a flexible and modular experimental rolling-apparatus that can achieve bonding of polymeric films through cold-rolling. Firstly, the classical theory of rolling a rigid-plastic thin-strip is utilized to estimate various deformation fields such as strain-rates, velocities, loads etc. in rolling the polymeric films at the specified feed-rates and desired levels of thickness-reduction(s). Predicted magnitudes of slow strain-rates, particularly at ambient temperatures during rolling, and moderate levels of plastic deformation (at which Bauschinger effect can be neglected for the particular class of polymeric materials studied here), greatly simplifies the task of material modeling and allows us to deploy a computationally efficient, yet accurate, finite deformation rate-independent elastic-plastic material behavior model (with inclusion of isotropic-hardening) for analyzing the rolling of these polymeric films. The interfacial behavior between the roller and polymer surfaces is modeled using Coulombic friction; consistent with the rate-independent behavior. The finite deformation elastic-plastic material behavior based on (i) the additive decomposition of stretching tensor (D = De + Dp, i.e. a hypoelastic formulation) with incrementally objective time integration and, (ii) multiplicative decomposition of deformation gradient (F = FeFp) into elastic and plastic parts, are programmed and carried out for cold-rolling within ABAQUS Explicit. Predictions from both the formulations, i.e., hypoelastic and multiplicative decomposition, exhibit a close match. We find that no specialized hyperlastic/visco-plastic model is required to describe the behavior of the blend of polymeric films, under the conditions described here, thereby speeding up the computation process .

Keywords: Polymer Plasticity, Bonding, Deformation Induced Mobility, Rolling

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Authors: Omer Burak Iskender, Keck Voon Ling, Vincent Dubanchet, Luca Simonini

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This paper presents Guidance and Control (G&C) strategy to approach and synchronize with potentially rotating targets. The proposed strategy generates and tracks a safe trajectory for space servicing missions, including tasks like approaching, inspecting, and capturing. The main objective of this paper is to validate the G&C laws using a Hardware-In-the-Loop (HIL) setup with realistic rendezvous and docking equipment. Throughout this work, the assumption of full relative state feedback is relaxed by onboard sensors that bring realistic errors and delays and, while the proposed closed loop approach demonstrates the robustness to the above mentioned challenge. Moreover, G&C blocks are unified via the Model Predictive Control (MPC) paradigm, and the coupling between translational motion and rotational motion is addressed via dual quaternion based kinematic description. In this work, G&C is formulated as a convex optimization problem where constraints such as thruster limits and the output constraints are explicitly handled. Furthermore, the Monte-Carlo method is used to evaluate the robustness of the proposed method to the initial condition errors, the uncertainty of the target's motion and attitude, and actuator errors. A capture scenario is tested with the robotic test bench that has onboard sensors which estimate the position and orientation of a drifting satellite through camera imagery. Finally, the approach is compared with currently used robust H-infinity controllers and guidance profile provided by the industrial partner. The HIL experiments demonstrate that the proposed strategy is a potential candidate for future space servicing missions because 1) the algorithm is real-time implementable as convex programming offers deterministic convergence properties and guarantee finite time solution, 2) critical physical and output constraints are respected, 3) robustness to sensor errors and uncertainties in the system is proven, 4) couples translational motion with rotational motion.

Keywords: dual quaternion, model predictive control, real-time experimental test, rendezvous and docking, spacecraft autonomy, space servicing

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Authors: Zhang Dongqing

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Concern for students' mental health and the application of intelligent advanced technologies are driving changes in teaching models. The traditional teacher-centered classroom is beginning to transform into a student-centered smart interactive learning environment. Nowadays, smart classrooms are compatible with constructivist learning. This theory emphasizes the role of teachers in the teaching process as helpers and facilitators of knowledge construction, and students learn by interacting with them. The spatial design of classrooms is closely related to the teaching model and should also be developed in the direction of smart classroom design. The goal is to explore the impact of smart classroom layout on student-centered teaching environment and teacher-student interaction under the guidance of constructivist learning theory, by combining the design process and feedback analysis of the smart transformation project on the campus of Tongji University in Shanghai. During the research process, the theoretical basis of constructivist learning was consolidated through literature research and case analysis. The integration and visual field analysis of the traditional and transformed indoor floor plans were conducted using space syntax tools. Finally, questionnaire surveys and interviews were used to collect data. The main conclusions are as followed: flexible spatial layouts can promote students' learning effects and mental health; the interactivity of smart classroom layouts is different and needs to be combined with different teaching models; the public areas of teaching buildings can also improve the interactive learning atmosphere by adding discussion space. This article provides a data-based research basis for improving students' learning effects and mental health, and provides a reference for future smart classroom design.

Keywords: spatial layout, smart classroom, space syntax, renovation, educational environment

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Authors: Giang Ngo Tinh Nguyen

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Agriculture plays an important role in the economy of Vietnam and coffee is one of most crucial agricultural commodities for exporting but the current farming methods and processing infrastructure could not keep up with the development of the sector. There are many catastrophic impacts on the environment such as deforestation; soil degradation that leads to a decrease in the quality of coffee beans. Therefore, improving supply chain to develop the cultivation of sustainable coffee is one of the most important strategies to boost the coffee industry and create a competitive advantage for Vietnamese coffee in the worldwide market. If all stakeholders in the supply chain network unite together; the sustainable production of coffee will be scaled up and the future of coffee industry will be firmly secured. Buon Ma Thuot city, Dak Lak province is the principal growing region for Vietnamese coffee which accounted for a third of total coffee area in Vietnam. It plays a strategically crucial role in the development of sustainable Vietnamese coffee. Thus, the research is to improve the supply chain of sustainable Vietnamese coffee production in Buon Ma Thuot city, Dak Lak province, Vietnam for the purpose of increasing the yields and export availability as well as helping coffee farmers to be more flexible in an ever-changing market situation. It will help to affirm Vietnamese coffee brand when entering international market; improve the livelihood of farmers and conserve the environment of this area. Besides, after analyzing the data, a logistic regression model is established to explain the relationship between the dependent variable and independent variables to help sustainable coffee organizations forecast the probability of farmer will be having a sustainable certificate with their current situation and help them choose promising candidates to develop sustainable programs. It investigates opinions of local farmers through quantitative surveys. Qualitative interviews are also used to interview local collectors and staff of Trung Nguyen manufacturing company to have an overview of the situation.

Keywords: supply chain management, sustainable agricultural development, sustainable coffee, Vietnamese coffee

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Authors: Mohamed Abdelkareem

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Remote sensing data contributed on predicting the prospective areas of water resources. Integration of microwave and multispectral data along with climatic, hydrologic, and geological data has been used here. In this article, Sentinel-2, Landsat-8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), and Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) Phased Array Type L‐band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR) data were utilized to identify the geological, hydrologic and structural features of Wadi Asyuti which represents a defunct tributary of the Nile basin, in the eastern Sahara. The image transformation of Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 data allowed characterizing the different varieties of rock units. Integration of microwave remotely-sensed data and GIS techniques provided information on physical characteristics of catchments and rainfall zones that are of a crucial role for mapping groundwater prospective zones. A fused Landsat-8 OLI and ALOS/PALSAR data improved the structural elements that difficult to reveal using optical data. Lineament extraction and interpretation indicated that the area is clearly shaped by the NE-SW graben that is cut by NW-SE trend. Such structures allowed the accumulation of thick sediments in the downstream area. Processing of recent OLI data acquired on March 15, 2014, verified the flood potential maps and offered the opportunity to extract the extent of the flooding zone of the recent flash flood event (March 9, 2014), as well as revealed infiltration characteristics. Several layers including geology, slope, topography, drainage density, lineament density, soil characteristics, rainfall, and morphometric characteristics were combined after assigning a weight for each using a GIS-based knowledge-driven approach. The results revealed that the predicted groundwater potential zones (GPZs) can be arranged into six distinctive groups, depending on their probability for groundwater, namely very low, low, moderate, high very, high, and excellent. Field and well data validated the delineated zones.

Keywords: GIS, remote sensing, groundwater, Egypt

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Authors: Nateepat Srivarom, Weng Jingnong, Serm Chinnarat

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Precise Point Positioning (PPP) technique is use to improve accuracy by using precise satellite orbit and clock correction data, but this technique is complicated methods and high costs. Currently, there are several online processing service providers which offer simplified calculation. In the first part of this research, we compare the efficiency and precision of four software. There are three popular online processing service providers: Australian Online GPS Processing Service (AUSPOS), CSRS-Precise Point Positioning and CenterPoint RTX post processing by Trimble and 1 offline software, RTKLIB, which collected data from 10 the International GNSS Service (IGS) stations for 10 days. The results indicated that AUSPOS has the least distance root mean square (DRMS) value of 0.0029 which is good enough to be calculated for monitoring the movement of tectonic plates. The second, we use AUSPOS to process the data of geodetic network of Thailand. In December 26, 2004, the earthquake occurred a 9.3 MW at the north of Sumatra that highly affected all nearby countries, including Thailand. Earthquake effects have led to errors of the coordinate system of Thailand. The Royal Thai Survey Department (RTSD) is primarily responsible for monitoring of the crustal movement of the country. The difference of the geodetic network movement is not the same network and relatively large. This result is needed for survey to continue to improve GPS coordinates system in every year. Therefore, in this research we chose the AUSPOS to calculate the magnitude and direction of movement, to improve coordinates adjustment of the geodetic network consisting of 19 pins in Thailand during October 2013 to November 2017. Finally, results are displayed on the simulation map by using the ArcMap program with the Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) method. The pin with the maximum movement is pin no. 3239 (Tak) in the northern part of Thailand. This pin moved in the south-western direction to 11.04 cm. Meanwhile, the directional movement of the other pins in the south gradually changed from south-west to south-east, i.e., in the direction noticed before the earthquake. The magnitude of the movement is in the range of 4 - 7 cm, implying small impact of the earthquake. However, the GPS network should be continuously surveyed in order to secure accuracy of the geodetic network of Thailand.

Keywords: precise point positioning, online processing service, geodetic network, inverse distance weighting

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Authors: M. D. Antoine

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Despite the widespread use of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) for autistic children, little is known about the communication flow between the different parties involved in autism care (e.g., parents/caregivers, conventional providers, alternative practitioners). This study aimed to describe how communication occurs through the first year following an autism spectrum disorder (ASD) diagnosis to identify challenges and potential barriers to communication within the healthcare system in Ottawa, Canada. From an ecological perspective, we collected qualitative data through 12 semi-structured interviews with six parents/caregivers, three conventional providers (e.g., family doctor, neurodevelopmental pediatrician, psychologist), and three alternative practitioners (e.g., naturopath, occupational therapist, speech and language pathologist) operating in Ottawa. We interpreted the data using thematic analysis. Findings revealed communication challenges between the parents/caregivers and conventional providers while they experience better communication flow with fewer challenges in alternative care settings. However, parents/caregivers are the only links between the health professionals of both streams. From the five contexts examined: organizational, interpersonal, media, cultural, and political-legal, we found four themes (provider knowledge, care integration, flexible care, and time constraints) underlining specific barriers to communication flow between the parties involved in the care of autistic children. The increasing interest in alternative medicine is forcing changes in the healthcare system. Communications occur outside the norms making openings for better communication and information-sharing increasingly essential. Within the identified themes in the current study, the necessity for better communication between all parties involved in the care of autistic children is evident. More ASD and CAM-related training for providers would support effective parent/caregiver-provider communication. The findings of the current study contribute to a better understanding of the role of communication in the care management of autism, which has implications for effective autism care.

Keywords: alternative medicine, autism care management, autism spectrum disorder, conventional medicine, parent-provider communication

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Authors: Jhoga Parth, T. Nasar, K. V. Anand

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An idealized definition of shoreline is that it is the zone of coincidence of three spheres such as atmosphere, lithosphere, and hydrosphere. Despite its apparent simplicity, this definition in practice a challenge to apply. In reality, the shoreline location deviates continually through time, because of various dynamic factors such as wave characteristics, currents, coastal orientation and the bathymetry, which makes the shoreline volatile. This necessitates us to monitor the shoreline in a temporal basis. If shoreline’s nature is understood at particular coastal stretch, it need not be the same trend at the other location, though belonging to the same sea front. Shoreline change is hence a local phenomenon and has to be studied with great intensity considering as many factors involved as possible. Erosion and accretion of sediment are such natures of a shoreline, which needs to be quantified by comparing with its predeceasing variations and understood before implementing any coastal projects. In recent years, advent of Global Positioning System (GPS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) acts as an emerging tool to quantify the intra and inter annual sediment rate getting accreted or deposited compared to other conventional methods in regards with time was taken and man power. Remote sensing data, on the other hand, paves way to acquire historical sets of data where field data is unavailable with a higher resolution. Short term and long term period shoreline change can be accurately tracked and monitored using a software residing in GIS - Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) developed by United States Geological Survey (USGS). In the present study, using DSAS, End Point Rate (EPR) is calculated analyze the intra-annual changes, and Linear Rate Regression (LRR) is adopted to study inter annual changes of shoreline. The shoreline changes are quantified for the scenario during the construction of breakwater in Ponnani river inlet along Kerala coast, India. Ponnani is a major fishing and landing center located 10°47’12.81”N and 75°54’38.62”E in Malappuram district of Kerala, India. The rate of erosion and accretion is explored using satellite and field data. The full paper contains the rate of change of shoreline, and its analysis would provide us understanding the behavior of the inlet at the study area during the construction of the training walls.

Keywords: DSAS, end point rate, field measurements, geo-informatics, shoreline variation

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Authors: Adan Valdez, Shawn Gallaher, James Morison, Jordan Aragon

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Global climate change has impacted atmospheric temperatures contributing to rising sea levels, decreasing sea ice, and increased freshening of high latitude oceans. This freshening has contributed to increased stratification inhibiting local mixing and nutrient transport and modifying regional circulations in polar oceans. In recent years, the Western Arctic has seen an increase in freshwater volume at an average rate of 397+-116 km3/year. The majority of the freshwater volume resides in the Beaufort Gyre surface lens driven by anticyclonic wind forcing, sea ice melt, and Arctic river runoff. The total climatological freshwater content is typically defined as water fresher than 34.8. The near-isothermal nature of Arctic seawater and non-linearities in the equation of state for near-freezing waters result in a salinity driven pycnocline as opposed to the temperature driven density structure seen in the lower latitudes. In this study, we investigate the relationship between freshwater content and remotely sensed dynamic ocean topography (DOT). In-situ measurements of freshwater content are useful in providing information on the freshening rate of the Beaufort Gyre; however, their collection is costly and time consuming. NASA’s Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System (ATLAS) derived dynamic ocean topography (DOT), and Air Expendable CTD (AXCTD) derived Freshwater Content are used to develop a linear regression model. In-situ data for the regression model is collected across the 150° West meridian, which typically defines the centerline of the Beaufort Gyre. Two freshwater content models are determined by integrating the freshwater volume between the surface and an isopycnal corresponding to reference salinities of 28.7 and 34.8. These salinities correspond to those of the winter pycnocline and total climatological freshwater content, respectively. Using each model, we determine the strength of the linear relationship between freshwater content and satellite derived DOT. The result of this modeling study could provide a future predictive capability of freshwater volume changes in the Beaufort-Chukchi Sea using non in-situ methods. Successful employment of the ICESat-2’s DOT approximation of freshwater content could potentially reduce reliance on field deployment platforms to characterize physical ocean properties.

Keywords: ICESat-2, dynamic ocean topography, freshwater content, beaufort gyre

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Authors: Theoktisti Makridou, Konstantinos Tsaprailis, George Arvanitakis, Charalampos Kontoes

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In the literature, the data-driven approaches for mosquito abundance prediction relaying on supervised machine learning models that get trained with historical in-situ measurements. The counterpart of this approach is once the model gets trained on pointlevel (specific x,y coordinates) measurements, the predictions of the model refer again to point-level. These point-level predictions reduce the applicability of those solutions once a lot of early warning and mitigation actions applications need predictions for an area level, such as a municipality, village, etc... In this study, we apply a data-driven predictive model, which relies on public-open satellite Earth Observation and geospatial data and gets trained with historical point-level in-Situ measurements of mosquito abundance. Then we propose a methodology to extract information from a point-level predictive model to a broader area-level prediction. Our methodology relies on the randomly spatial sampling of the area of interest (similar to the Poisson hardcore process), obtaining the EO and geomorphological information for each sample, doing the point-wise prediction for each sample, and aggregating the predictions to represent the average mosquito abundance of the area. We quantify the performance of the transformation from the pointlevel to the area-level predictions, and we analyze it in order to understand which parameters have a positive or negative impact on it. The goal of this study is to propose a methodology that predicts the mosquito abundance of a given area by relying on point-level prediction and to provide qualitative insights regarding the expected performance of the area-level prediction. We applied our methodology to historical data (of Culex pipiens) of two areas of interest (Veneto region of Italy and Central Macedonia of Greece). In both cases, the results were consistent. The mean mosquito abundance of a given area can be estimated with similar accuracy to the point-level predictor, sometimes even better. The density of the samples that we use to represent one area has a positive effect on the performance in contrast to the actual number of sampling points which is not informative at all regarding the performance without the size of the area. Additionally, we saw that the distance between the sampling points and the real in-situ measurements that were used for training did not strongly affect the performance.

Keywords: mosquito abundance, supervised machine learning, culex pipiens, spatial sampling, west nile virus, earth observation data

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Authors: Jigg Pelayo, Ricardo Villar, Einstine Opiso

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The rampant and unintended spread of urban areas resulted in increasing artificial component features in the land cover types of the countryside and bringing forth the urban heat island (UHI). This paved the way to wide range of negative influences on the human health and environment which commonly relates to air pollution, drought, higher energy demand, and water shortage. Land cover type also plays a relevant role in the process of understanding the interaction between ground surfaces with the local temperature. At the moment, the depiction of the land surface temperature (LST) at city/municipality scale particularly in certain areas of Misamis Oriental, Philippines is inadequate as support to efficient mitigations and adaptations of the surface urban heat island (SUHI). Thus, this study purposely attempts to provide application on the Landsat 8 satellite data and low density Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) products in mapping out quality automated LST model and crop-level land cover classification in a local scale, through theoretical and algorithm based approach utilizing the principle of data analysis subjected to multi-dimensional image object model. The paper also aims to explore the relationship between the derived LST and land cover classification. The results of the presented model showed the ability of comprehensive data analysis and GIS functionalities with the integration of object-based image analysis (OBIA) approach on automating complex maps production processes with considerable efficiency and high accuracy. The findings may potentially lead to expanded investigation of temporal dynamics of land surface UHI. It is worthwhile to note that the environmental significance of these interactions through combined application of remote sensing, geographic information tools, mathematical morphology and data analysis can provide microclimate perception, awareness and improved decision-making for land use planning and characterization at local and neighborhood scale. As a result, it can aid in facilitating problem identification, support mitigations and adaptations more efficiently.

Keywords: LiDAR, OBIA, remote sensing, local scale

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Authors: S. M. Chabane sari S. Zargou, A.R. Senoudi, F. Benmouna

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Immobilization of nano particles (NPs) is the subject of numerous studies pertaining to the design of polymer nano composites, supported catalysts, bioactive colloidal crystals, inverse opals for novel optical materials, latex templated-hollow inorganic capsules, immunodiagnostic assays; “Pickering” emulsion polymerization for making latex particles and film-forming composites or Janus particles; chemo- and biosensors, tunable plasmonic nano structures, hybrid porous monoliths for separation science and technology, biocidal polymer/metal nano particle composite coatings, and so on. Particularly, in the recent years, the literature has witnessed an impressive progress of investigations on polymer coatings, grafts and particles as supports for anchoring nano particles. This is actually due to several factors: polymer chains are flexible and may contain a variety of functional groups that are able to efficiently immobilize nano particles and their precursors by dispersive or van der Waals, electrostatic, hydrogen or covalent bonds. We review methods to prepare polymer-immobilized nano particles through a plethora of strategies in view of developing systems for separation, sensing, extraction and catalysis. The emphasis is on methods to provide (i) polymer brushes and grafts; (ii) monoliths and porous polymer systems; (iii) natural polymers and (iv) conjugated polymers as platforms for anchoring nano particles. The latter range from soft bio macromolecular species (proteins, DNA) to metallic, C60, semiconductor and oxide nano particles; they can be attached through electrostatic interactions or covalent bonding. It is very clear that physicochemical properties of polymers (e.g. sensing and separation) are enhanced by anchored nano particles, while polymers provide excellent platforms for dispersing nano particles for e.g. high catalytic performances. We thus anticipate that the synergetic role of polymeric supports and anchored particles will increasingly be exploited in view of designing unique hybrid systems with unprecedented properties.

Keywords: gold, layer, polymer, macromolecular

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Authors: Akinwumi Omotayo, Badu-B Apraku, Joseph Olobasola, Petra Abdul Saghir, Yinka Sobowale

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In southwestern Nigeria, climate change has led to loss of at least two months of rainfall. Consequently, only one cycle of maize can now be grown because of the shorter duration of rainy season as against two cycles in the past. The Early and Extra-early maturing varieties of maize were originally developed for the semi-arid and arid zones of West and Central Africa where there are seasonal challenges of water threatening optimum performance of the traditional maize grown, which are commonly late in maturity (115 to 120 days). The early varieties of maize mature in 90 to 95 days; while the Extra-Early maize varieties reach physiological maturity in less than 90 days. It was broadly hypothesized that the extra early varieties of maize could mitigate the effects of climate change in southwestern Nigeria with higher levels of rainfall by reinstating the original two cycles of rain-fed maize crop. Trials were therefore carried out in southwestern Nigeria on the possibility of adapting the extra early maize to mitigate the effects of climate change. The trial was the Mother/Baby design. The mother trial involves the evaluation of extra-early varieties following ideal recommendations and closely supervised centrally at the University research farm and the Agricultural Development Programmes (ADPs). This requires farmers to observe and evaluate the technology and the management regime meant to precede the second stage of evaluation at several satellite farmers field managed by selected farmers. The Baby Trial is expected to provide a realistic assessment of the technology by farmers in their own environment. A stratified selection of thirty farmers for the Baby Trial ensured appropriate representation across the different categories of the farming population by age and gender. Data from the trials indicate that extra early maize can be grown in two cycles rain fed in south west Nigeria and a third and fourth cycle could be obtained with irrigation. However the long duration varieties outyielded the extra early maize in both the mother and baby trials. When harvested green, the extra early maize served as source of food between March and May when there was scarcity of food. This represents a major advantage. The study recommends that further work needs to be done to improve the yield of extra early maize to encourage farmers to adopt.

Keywords: adaptation, climate change, extra early, maize varieties, mitigation

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Authors: Yarra Sulina, Nunna Tagore Sai Priya, Ankhi Banerjee

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With the rapid growth in tourist arrivals, there has been a huge demand for the growth of infrastructure in the destinations. With the increasing preference of tourists to stay near attractions, there has been a considerable change in the land use around tourist sites. However, with the inclusion of certain regulations and guidelines provided by the authorities based on the nature of tourism activity and geographical constraints, the pattern of growth of built form is different for various tourist sites. Therefore, this study explores the patterns of growth of built-up for a decade from 2009 to 2019 through two-dimensional and three-dimensional analysis. Land use maps are created through supervised classification of satellite images obtained from LANDSAT 4-5 and LANDSAT 8 for 2009 and 2019, respectively. The overall expansion of the built-up area in the region is analyzed in relation to the distance from the city's geographical center and the tourism-related growth regions are identified which are influenced by the proximity of tourist attractions. The primary tourist sites of various destinations with different geographical characteristics and tourism activities, that have undergone a significant increase in built-up area and are occupied with tourism-related infrastructure are selected for further study. Proximity analysis of the tourism-related growth sites is carried out to delineate the influence zone of the tourist site in a destination. Further, a temporal analysis of volumetric growth of built form is carried out to understand the morphology of the tourist precincts over time. The Digital Surface Model (DSM) and Digital Terrain Model (DTM) are used to extract the building footprints along with building height. Factors such as building height, and building density are evaluated to understand the patterns of three-dimensional growth of the built area in the region. The study also explores the underlying reasons for such changes in built form around various tourist sites and predicts the impact of such growth patterns in the region. The building height and building density around tourist site creates a huge impact on the appeal of the destination. The surroundings that are incompatible with the theme of the tourist site have a negative impact on the attractiveness of the destination that leads to negative feedback by the tourists, which is not a sustainable form of development. Therefore, proper spatial measures are necessary in terms of area and volume of the built environment for a healthy and sustainable environment around the tourist sites in the destination.

Keywords: sustainable tourism, growth patterns, land-use changes, 3-dimensional analysis of built-up area

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Authors: Liyu Adhi Kasari Sulung

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Poverty has been a major problem in Indonesia. Islamic micro finance (IMF) named Baitul Maal Wat Tamwil (Bmt) plays a prominent role to eradicate this. Indonesia as the biggest muslim country has many successful applied products such as worldwide adopt group-based lending approach, flexible financing for farmers, and gold pawning. The Problems related to these models are operation risk management and internal control system (ICS). A proper ICS will help an organization in preventing the occurrence of bad financing through detecting error and irregularities in its operation. This study aims to seek a proper risk management scheme of credit system in Bmt and internal control system’s rank for every stage. Risk management variables are obtained at the first In-Depth Interview (IDI) and Focus Group Discussion (FGD) with Shariah supervisory boards, boards of directors, and operational managers. Survey was conducted covering nationwide data; West Java, South Sulawesi, and West Nusa Tenggara. Moreover, Content analysis is employed to build the relationship among these variables. Research Findings shows that risk management Characteristics in Indonesia involves ex ante, credit process, and ex post strategies to deal with risk in credit system. Ex-ante control consists of Shariah compliance, survey, group leader reference, and islamic forming orientation. Then, credit process involves saving, collateral, joint liability, loan repayment, and credit installment controlling. Finally, ex-post control includes shariah evaluation, credit evaluation, grace period and low installment provisions. In addition, internal control order sort three stages by its priority; Credit process as first rank, then ex-post control as second, and ex ante control as the last rank.

Keywords: internal control system, islamic micro finance, poverty, risk management

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Authors: B. S. Chaudhary

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The severity and frequencies of different disasters on the globe is increasing in recent years. India is also facing the disasters in the form of drought, cyclone, earthquake, landslides, and floods. One of the major causes of disasters in northern India is flood. There are great losses and extensive damage to the agricultural crops, property, human, and animal life. This is causing environmental imbalances at places. The annual global figures for losses due to floods run into over 2 billion dollar. India is a vast country with wide variations in climate and topography. Due to widespread and heavy rainfall during the monsoon months, floods of varying magnitude occur all over the country during June to September. The magnitude depends upon the intensity of rainfall, its duration and also the ground conditions at the time of rainfall. Haryana, one of the agriculturally dominated northern states is also suffering from a number of disasters such as floods, desertification, soil erosion, land degradation etc. Earthquakes are also frequently occurring but of small magnitude so are not causing much concern and damage. Most of the damage in Haryana is due to floods. Floods in Haryana have occurred in 1978, 1988, 1993, 1995, 1998, and 2010 to mention a few. The present paper deals with the Remote Sensing and GIS applications in preparing flood risk maps in parts of Haryana State India. The satellite data of various years have been used for mapping of flood affected areas. The Flooded areas have been interpreted both visually and digitally and two classes-flooded and receded water/ wet areas have been identified for each year. These have been analyzed in GIS environment to prepare the risk maps. This shows the areas of high, moderate and low risk depending on the frequency of flood witness. The floods leave a trail of suffering in the form of unhygienic conditions due to improper sanitation, water logging, filth littered in the area, degradation of materials and unsafe drinking water making the people prone to many type diseases in short and long run. Attempts have also been made to enumerate the causes of floods. The suggestions are given for mitigating the fury of floods and proper management issues related to evacuation and safe places nearby.

Keywords: flood mapping, GIS, Haryana, India, remote sensing, space technology

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Authors: Hassam Hassan Elborombaly

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The pollution generated from transportation modes, congestion and traffic heritage has led to the deterioration of historic buildings and the urban heritage in historic cities. Accordingly, this paper attempts to diagnose the transport and traffic problems in historic cities. In general and in Heritage Cities, and to investigate methods for conserving the urban heritage from negative effects of traffic congestion and of the traditional red modes of transportation. It also attempts to explore possible areas for intervention to mitigate transportation and traffic problems in the light of the principles of the sustainable transportation framework. It aims to draw conclusion and propose recommendation that would increase the efficiency and effectiveness of transportation plans in historic Cairo and consequently achieve sustainable transportation. Problems In historic cities public paths compose an irregular network enclosing large residential plots (defined as super blocks quarters or hettas). The blocks represent the basic morphology units in historic Cities. Each super block incorporates several uses (i.e. residential, non-residential, service uses and others). Local paths reach the interior of the super blocks in an organized inter core, which deals mainly with residential functions mixed with handicraft activities and is composed of several local path units; (b) the other core, which is bound by the public paths and contains a combination of residential, commercial and social activities. Objectives: 1- To provide amenity convenience and comfort for visitors and people who live and work in the area. Pedestrianizing, accessibility and safety are to be reinforced while respecting the organic urban pattern. 2- To enhance street life, vitality and activity, in order to attract people and increase economic prosperity. Research Contents • Relation between residential areas and transportation in the inner core • Analytical studies for historic areas in heritage cities • Sustainable transportation planning in heritage cities • Dynamic and flexible methodology for achieving sustainable transportation network for the Heritage Cities • Result and Recommendation

Keywords: irregular network, public paths, sustainable transportation, urban heritage

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Authors: T. B. Karu Jayasundara

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The Earth’s gravity is not uniform. The satellite imageries of the Earth’s surface from NASA reveal a number of different gravity anomaly regions all over the globe. When the moon rotates around the earth, its gravity has a major physical influence on a number of regions on the earth. This physical change can be seen by the tides. The tides make sea levels high and low in coastal regions. During high tide, the gravitational force of the Moon pulls the Earth’s gravity so that the total gravitational intensity of Earth is reduced; it is further reduced in the low gravity regions of Earth. This reduction in gravity helps keep the suspended particles such as dust in the atmosphere, sand grains in the sea water for longer. Dramatic differences can be seen from the floating dust in the low gravity regions when compared with other regions. The above phenomena can be demonstrated from experiments. The experiments have to be done in high and low gravity regions of the earth during high and low tide, which will assist in comparing the final results. One of the experiments that can be done is by using a water filled cylinder about 80 cm tall, a few particles, which have the same density and same diameter (about 1 mm) and a stop watch. The selected particles were dropped from the surface of the water in the cylinder and the time taken for the particles to reach the bottom of the cylinder was measured using the stop watch. The times of high and low tide charts can be obtained from the regional government authorities. This concept is demonstrated by the particle drop times taken at high and low tides. The result of the experiment shows that the particle settlement time is less in low tide and high in high tide. The experiment for dust particles in air can be collected on filters, which are cellulose ester membranes and using a vacuum pump. The dust on filters can be used to make slides according to the NOHSC method. Counting the dust particles on the slides can be done using a phase contrast microscope. The results show that the concentration of dust is high at high tide and low in low tide. As a result of the high tides, a high concentration of heavy minerals deposit on placer deposits and dust particles retain in the atmosphere for longer in low gravity regions. These conditions are remarkably exhibited in the lowest low gravity region of the earth, mainly in the regions of India, Sri Lanka and in the middle part of the Indian Ocean. The biggest heavy mineral placer deposits are found in coastal regions of India and Sri Lanka and heavy dust particles are found in the atmosphere of India, particularly in the Delhi region.

Keywords: gravity, minerals, tides, moon, costal, atmosphere

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Authors: Karen Jacob

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Over the last decades, there has been a rise in the use of CLIL (content and language integrated learning) methodology as a way of reinforcing FL (foreign language) acquisition. CLIL techniques have also been transferred to the formal instruction-based FL classroom where through content-based lessons and project work it can very often say that teachers are ‘clilling’ in the FL classroom. When it comes to motivating students to acquire an FL, we have to take into account that English is not your run-of-the-mill FL: English is an international language (EIL). Consequently, this means that EFL students should be able to use English as an international medium of communication. This leads to the assumption that along with FL competence, speakers of EIL will need to become competent international citizens with knowledge of other societies, both contextually and geographically, and be flexible, open-minded, respectful and sensitive towards other world groups. Rather than ‘intercultural’ competence we should be referring to ‘transcultural’ competence. This paper reports the implementation of a content- and task-based approach to EFL teaching which was applied to two groups of 15 year-olds from two schools on the Spanish island of Mallorca during the school year 2015-2016. Students worked on three units of work that aimed at ‘internationalising’ the classroom by introducing topics that would encourage them to become transculturally aware of the world in which they live. In this paper we discuss the feedback given by the teachers and students on various aspects of the approach in order to answer the following research questions: 1) To what extent were the students motivated by the content and activities of the classes?; 2) Did this motivation have a positive effect on the students’ overall results for the subject; 3) Did the participants show any signs of becoming transculturally aware. Preliminary results from qualitative data show that the students enjoyed the move away from the more traditional EFL content and, as a result, they became more competent in speaking and writing. Students also appeared to become more knowledgeable and respectful towards the ‘other’. The EFL approach described in this paper takes a more qualitative approach to research by describing what is really going on in the EFL classroom and makes a conscious effort to provide real examples of not only the acquisition of linguistic competence but also the acquisition of other important communication skills that are of utmost importance in today's international arena.

Keywords: CLIL, content- and task-based learning, internationalisation, transcultural competence

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Authors: Marta Fernandez Cabrera

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The period of economic boom generated by the housing bubble created a climate of social indifference to the problem of corruption. This resulted in the persecution and conviction for these criminal offenses being low. After the economic recession, social awareness about the problem of corruption has increased. This has led to the Spanish citizenship requiring the public authorities to try to end the problem in the most effective way possible. In order to respond to the continuous social demands that require an exemplary punishment, the legislator has made changes in crimes against the public administration in the Spanish Criminal Code. However, from the point of view of criminal law, the social change has not served to modify only the law, but also the jurisprudence. After the recession, judges are punishing more severely these conducts than in the past. Before the crisis, it was usual for criminal judges to divert relevant behavior to other areas of the legal system such as administrative law and acquit in the criminal field. Criminal judges have considered that administrative law already has mechanisms that can effectively deal with this type of behavior in order to respect the principle of subsidiarity or ultima ratio. It has also been usual for criminal judges to acquit civil servants due to the absence of requirements unrelated to the applicable offense. For example, they have required an economic damage to the public administration when the offense in the criminal code does not require it. Nevertheless, for some years, these arguments have either partially disappeared or considerably transformed. Since 2010, a jurisprudential stream has been consolidated that aims to provide a more severe response to corruption than it had received until now. This change of opinion, together with greater prosecution of these behaviors by judges and prosecutors, has led to a significant increase in the number of individuals convicted of corruption crimes. This paper has two objectives. The first one is to show that even though judges apply the law impartially, they are flexible to social changes. The second one is to identify the erroneous arguments the courts have used up until now. To carry out the present paper, it has been done a detailed analysis of the judgments of the supreme court before and after the year 2010. Therefore, the jurisprudential analysis is complemented with the statistical data on corruption available.

Keywords: corruption, public administration, social perception, ultima ratio principle

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Authors: Sofya Komarova, Frashia Ndungu, Alessia Gavazzoli, Roberta Mineo

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Modern society requires people to be flexible and to develop innovative solutions to unexpected situations. Creativity refers to the “interaction among aptitude, process, and the environment by which an individual or group produces a perceptible product that is both novel and useful as defined within a social context”. It allows humans to produce novel ideas, generate new solutions, and express themselves uniquely. Only a few scientific studies have examined group dynamics' influence on individuals' creativity. There exist some gaps in the research on creative thinking, such as the fact that collaborative effort frequently results in the enhanced production of new information and knowledge. Therefore, it is critical to evaluate creativity via social settings. The study aimed at exploring the group dynamics of young adults in small group settings and the influence of these dynamics on their creativity. The study included 30 participants aged 20 to 25 who were attending university after completing a bachelor's degree. The participants were divided into groups of three, in gender homogenous and heterogeneous groups. The groups’ creative task was tied to the Lego mosaic created for the Scintillae laboratory at the Reggio Children Foundation. Group dynamics were operationalized into patterns of behaviors classified into three major categories: 1) Social Interactions, 2) Play, and 3) Distraction. Data were collected through audio and video recording and observation. The qualitative data were converted into quantitative data using the observational coding system; then, they were analyzed, revealing correlations between behaviors using median points and averages. For each participant and group, the percentages of represented behavior signals were computed. The findings revealed a link between social interaction, creative thinking, and creative activities. Other findings revealed that the more intense the social interaction, the lower the amount of creativity demonstrated. This study bridges the research gap between group dynamics and creativity. The approach calls for further research on the relationship between creativity and social interaction.

Keywords: group dynamics, creative thinking, creative action, social interactions, group play

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Authors: Sibani Bisoyi, Ute Zschieschang, Alexander Hoyer, Hagen Klauk

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Abstract— Organic thin-film transistors (TFTs) have great potential to be used for various applications such as flexible displays or sensors. For some of these applications, the TFTs must be able to withstand temperatures in excess of 100 °C, for example to permit the integration with devices or components that require high process temperatures, or to make it possible that the devices can be subjected to the standard sterilization protocols required for biomedical applications. In this work, we have investigated how the thermal stability of low-voltage small-molecule semiconductor dinaphtho[2,3-b:2’,3’-f]thieno[3,2-b]thiophene (DNTT) TFTs is affected by the encapsulation of the TFTs and by the ambient in which the thermal stress is performed. We also studied to which extent the thermal stability of the TFTs depends on the channel length. Some of the TFTs were encapsulated with a layer of vacuum-deposited Teflon, while others were left without encapsulation, and the thermal stress was performed either in nitrogen or in air. We found that the encapsulation with Teflon has virtually no effect on the thermal stability of our TFTs. In contrast, the ambient in which the thermal stress is conducted was found to have a measurable effect, but in a surprising way: When the thermal stress is carried out in nitrogen, the mobility drops to 70% of its initial value at a temperature of 160 °C and to close to zero at 170 °C, whereas when the stress is performed in air, the mobility remains at 75% of its initial value up to a temperature of 160 °C and at 60% up to 180 °C. To understand this behavior, we studied the effect of the thermal stress on the semiconductor thin-film morphology by scanning electron microscopy. While the DNTT films remain continuous and conducting when the heating is carried out in air, the semiconductor morphology undergoes a dramatic change, including the formation of large, thick crystals of DNTT and a complete loss of percolation, when the heating is conducted in nitrogen. We also found that when the TFTs are heated to a temperature of 200 °C in air, all TFTs with a channel length greater than 50 µm are destroyed, while TFTs with a channel length of less than 50 µm survive, whereas when the TFTs are heated to the same temperature (200 °C) in nitrogen, only the TFTs with a channel smaller than 8 µm survive. This result is also linked to the thermally induced changes in the semiconductor morphology.

Keywords: organic thin-film transistors, encapsulation, thermal stability, thin-film morphology

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Authors: Yurike, Yonariza, Rudi Febriamansyah, Syafruddin Karimi

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Forest is a natural resource that has an important function as a supporting element of human life. Forest degradation enormous impact on global warming is a reality we have experienced together, that disruption of ecosystems, extreme weather conditions, disruption of water management system watersheds and the threat of natural disasters as floods, landslides and droughts, even disruption food security. Dharmasraya is a district in the province of West Sumatra, which has an area of 92.150 ha of forest, which is largely a former production forest concessions (Forest Management Rights) which is supposed to be a secondary forest. This study answers about the impact of land use in the former concession area Dharmasraya on the environment. The methodology used is the household survey, key informants, and satellite data / GIS. From the results of the study, the former concession area in Dharmasraya experienced a reduction of forest cover over time significantly. Forest concessions should be secondary forests in Dharmasraya, now turned conversion to oil palm plantations. Population pressures and growing economic pressures, resulting in more intensive harvesting. As a result of these forest disturbances caused changes in forest functions. These changes put more emphasis towards economic function by ignoring social functions or ecological function. Society prefers to maximize their benefits today and pay less attention to the protection of natural resources. This causes global warming is increasing and this is not only felt by people around Dharmasraya but also the world. Land clearing by the community through a process in slash and burn. This fire was observed by NOAA satellites and recorded by the Forest Service of West Sumatra. This demonstrates the ability of trees felled trees to absorb carbon dioxide (CO2) to be lost, even with forest fires accounted for carbon dioxide emitted into the air, and this has an impact on global warming. In addition to the change of control of land into oil palm plantations water service has been poor, people began to trouble the water and oil palm plantations are located in the watershed caused the river dried up. Through the findings of this study is expected to contribute ideas to the policy makers to pay more attention to the former concession forest management as the prevention or reduction of global warming.

Keywords: climate change, community, concession forests, environment

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Authors: Abdul Mutolib, Yonariza Mahdi, Hanung Ismono

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The existence of forests is essential to human lives on earth, but its existence is threatened by forest deforestations and degradations. Forest deforestations and degradations in Indonesia is not only caused by the illegal activity by the company or the like, even today many cases in Indonesia forest damage caused by human activities, one of which cut down forests for agriculture and plantations. In West Sumatra, community forest management are the result supported the enactment of customary land tenure, including ownership of land within the forest. Indigenous forest management have a positive benefit, which gives the community an opportunity to get livelihood and income, but if forest management practices by indigenous peoples is not done wisely, then there is the destruction of forests and cause adverse effects on the environment. Based on intensive field works in Dhamasraya District employing some data collection techniques such as key informant interviews, household surveys, secondary data analysis, and satellite image interpretation. This paper answers the following questions; how the impact of forest management by local communities on forest conditions (foccus in Forest Production and Limited Production Forest) and knowledge of the local community on the benefits of forests. The site is a Nagari Bonjol, Dharmasraya District, because most of the forest in Dharmasraya located and owned by Nagari Bonjol community. The result shows that there is damage to forests in Dharmasraya because of forest management activities by local communities. Damage to the forest area of 33,500 ha in Dharmasraya because forests are converted into oil palm and rubber plantations with monocultures. As a result of the destruction of forests, water resources are also diminishing, and the community has experienced a drought in the dry season due to forest cut down and replaced by oil palm plantations. Knowledge of the local community on the benefits of low forest, the people considered that the forest does not have better benefits and cut down and converted into oil palm or rubber plantations. Local people do not understand the benefits of ecological and environmental services that forests. From the phenomena in Dharmasraya on land ownership, need to educate the local community about the importance of protecting the forest, and need a strategy to integrate forests management to keep the ecological functions that resemble the woods and counts the economic benefits for the welfare of local communities. One alternative that can be taken is to use forest management models agroforestry smallholders in accordance with the characteristics of the local community who still consider the economic, social and environmental.

Keywords: community, customary land, farmer plantations, and forests

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Authors: Ernest C. Nwadinobi, Amanda Peart, Carl Adams

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The leading countries like the USA, UK and some of the European countries have moved their focus away from just developing the e-government platform towards just the electronic services which aim at providing access to information to its citizens or customers, but they have gone to make significant backroom changes that can accommodate this electronic service being provided to its customers or citizens. E-government has moved from just providing electronic information to citizens and customers alike to serving their needs. In developing countries like Nigeria, the enablement of e-government is being used as an anti-corruption tool. The introduction of the Bank verification number (BVN) scheme by the Central Bank of Nigeria, has helped the government in not just saving money but also protecting customer’s transaction and enhancing confidence in the banking sector. This has helped curtail the high rate of cyber and financial crime that has been part of the system. The use of BVN as an anti-corruption tool in Nigeria came at a time there was need for openness, accountability, and discipline, after years of robbing the treasury and recklessness in handling finances. As there has not been a defined method for measuring the strength or success of e-government development, in this case BVN, in Nigeria, progress will remain at the same level. The implementation strategy of the BVN in Nigeria has mostly been a quick fix, quick win solution. In fact, there is little or no indication to show evidence of a framework for e-government. Like other leading countries, there is the need for proper implementation of strategy and framework especially towards a customer orientated process, which will accommodate every administrative body of the government institution including private business rather than focusing on a non-flexible organisational structure. The development of e-government must have a strategy and framework for it to work, and this strategy must enclose every public administration and will not be limited to any individual bodies or organization. A defined framework or monitoring method must be put in place to help evaluate and benchmark government development in e-government. This framework must follow the same concept or principles. In censorious analyses of the existing methods, this paper will denote areas that must be included in the existing approach to be able to channel e-government development towards its defined strategic objectives.

Keywords: Bank Verification No (BVN), quick-fix, anti-corruption, quick-win

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Authors: Judith Margaret Tymon

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As cities struggle to incorporate informal settlements into the fabric of urban areas, the focus has often been on the provision of housing. This study explores the underlying structure of street networks, with the goal of understanding the morphogenesis of informal settlements through the lens of the access network. As the stages of development progress from infill to consolidation and eventually, to a planned in-situ settlement, the access networks retain the form of the core segments; however, a majority of street patterns are adapted to a grid design to support infrastructure in the final upgraded phase. A case study is presented to examine the street network in the informal settlement of Gobabis Namibia as it progresses from its initial stages to a planned, in-situ, and permanently upgraded development. The Informal Development Stages framework of foundation, infill, and consolidation, as developed by Dr. Jota Samper, is utilized to examine the evolution of street networks. Data is gathered from historical Google Earth satellite images for the time period between 2003 and 2022. The results demonstrate that during the foundation through infill stages, incremental changes follow similar patterns, with pathways extended, lengthened, and densified as housing is created and the settlement grows. In the final stage of consolidation, the resulting street layout is transformed to support the installation of infrastructure; however, some elements of the original street patterns remain. The core pathways remain intact to accommodate the installation of infrastructure and the creation of housing plots, defining the shape of the settlement and providing the basis of the urban form. The adaptations, growth, and consolidation of the street network are critical to the eventual formation of the spatial layout of the settlement. This study will include a comparative analysis of findings with those of recent research performed by Kamalipour, Dovey, and others regarding incremental urbanism within informal settlements. Further comparisons will also include studies of street networks of well-established urban centers that have shown links between the morphogenesis of access networks and the eventual spatial layout of the city. The findings of the study can be used to guide and inform strategies for in-situ upgrading and can contribute to the sustainable development of informal settlements.

Keywords: Gobabis Namibia, incremental urbanism, informal development stages, informal settlements, street networks

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Authors: Mohamed Rajab Peer Mohamed, Thiruvenkatasamy Kannabiran

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In the present investigation, the scour around a circular pier subjected to a steady current were studied numerically using two-dimensional MIKE21 Flow Model (FM) and Sand Transport (ST)Modulewhich is developed by Danish Hydraulic Institute (DHI), Denmark. The unstructured flexible mesh generated with rectangular flume dimension of 10 m wide, 1 m deep, and 30 m long. The grain size of the sand was d50 = 0.16 mm, sediment size, sediment gradation=1.16, pier diameter D= 30 mm and depth-averaged current velocity, U = 0.449 m/s are considered in the model. The estimated scour depth obtained from this model is validated and it is observed that the results of the model have good agreement with flume experimental results.In order to estimate the scour depth, several simulations were made for three cases viz., Case I:change in sediment transport model description in the numerical model viz, i) Engelund-Hansen model, ii) Engelund-Fredsøe model, and iii) Van Rijn model, Case II: change in current velocity for keeping constant pile diameter D=0.03 m and Case III:change in pier diameter for constant depth averaged current speed U=0.449 m/s.In case I simulations, the results indicate that the scour depth S/D is the order of 1.73 for Engelund-Hansen model, 0.64 for Engelund-Fredsøe model and 0.46 for VanRijn model. The scour depth estimates using Engelund-Hansen method compares well the experimental results.In case II, simulations show that the scour depth increases with increasing current component of the flow.In case III simulations, the results indicate that the scour depth increases with increase in pier diameter and it stabilize attains steady value when the Froude number> 2.71.All the results of the numerical simulations are clearly matches with reported values of the experimental results. Hence, this MIKE21 FM –Sand Transport model can be used as a suitable tool to estimate the scour depth for field applications. Moreover, to provide suitable scour protection methods, the maximum scour depth is to be predicted, Engelund-Hansen method can be adopted to estimate the scour depth in the steady current region.

Keywords: circular pier, MIKE21, numerical model, scour, sediment transport

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Authors: Vishal Das, Tianyi Mao, Zhicheng Geng, Carmen Flores, Diego Pelloso, Fang Wang

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Accurate sell-in and sell-out forecasting is a ubiquitous problem in the retail industry. It is an important element of any demand planning activity. As a global food and beverage company, Nestlé has hundreds of products in each geographical location that they operate in. Each product has its sell-in and sell-out time series data, which are forecasted on a weekly and monthly scale for demand and financial planning. To address this challenge, Nestlé Chilein collaboration with Amazon Machine Learning Solutions Labhas developed their in-house solution of using machine learning models for forecasting. Similar products are combined together such that there is one model for each product category. In this way, the models learn from a larger set of data, and there are fewer models to maintain. The solution is scalable to all product categories and is developed to be flexible enough to include any new product or eliminate any existing product in a product category based on requirements. We show how we can use the machine learning development environment on Amazon Web Services (AWS) to explore a set of forecasting models and create business intelligence dashboards that can be used with the existing demand planning tools in Nestlé. We explored recent deep learning networks (DNN), which show promising results for a variety of time series forecasting problems. Specifically, we used a DeepAR autoregressive model that can group similar time series together and provide robust predictions. To further enhance the accuracy of the predictions and include domain-specific knowledge, we designed an ensemble approach using DeepAR and XGBoost regression model. As part of the ensemble approach, we interlinked the sell-out and sell-in information to ensure that a future sell-out influences the current sell-in predictions. Our approach outperforms the benchmark statistical models by more than 50%. The machine learning (ML) pipeline implemented in the cloud is currently being extended for other product categories and is getting adopted by other geomarkets.

Keywords: sell-in and sell-out forecasting, demand planning, DeepAR, retail, ensemble machine learning, time-series

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Authors: Mohanapriya Subramanian, V. Raj

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Direct methanol fuel cells (DMFCs) are considered to be one of the most promising candidates for portable and stationary applications in the view of their advantages such as high energy density, easy manipulation, high efficiency and they operate with liquid fuel which could be used without requiring any fuel-processing units. Electrolyte membrane of DMFC plays a key role as a proton conductor as well as a separator between electrodes. Increasing concern over environmental protection, biopolymers gain tremendous interest owing to their eco-friendly bio-degradable nature. Pectin is a natural anionic polysaccharide which plays an essential part in regulating mechanical behavior of plant cell wall and it is extracted from outer cells of most of the plants. The aim of this study is to develop and demonstrate pectin based polymer composite membranes as methanol impermeable polymer electrolyte membranes for DMFCs. Pectin based nanocomposites membranes are prepared by solution-casting technique wherein pectin is blended with chitosan followed by the addition of optimal amount of sulphonic acid modified Titanium dioxide nanoparticle (S-TiO2). Nanocomposite membranes are characterized by Fourier Transform-Infra Red spectroscopy, Scanning electron microscopy, and Energy dispersive spectroscopy analyses. Proton conductivity and methanol permeability are determined into order to evaluate their suitability for DMFC application. Pectin-chitosan blends endow with a flexible polymeric network which is appropriate to disperse rigid S-TiO2 nanoparticles. Resulting nanocomposite membranes possess adequate thermo-mechanical stabilities as well as high charge-density per unit volume. Pectin-chitosan natural polymeric nanocomposite comprising optimal S-TiO2 exhibits good electrochemical selectivity and therefore desirable for DMFC application.

Keywords: biopolymers, fuel cells, nanocomposite, methanol crossover

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Authors: Dragos Dragomir-Stanciu, Leon Marsh

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Background As a response to the gaps identified in recent research in the provision of residential care to address co-occurring health needs, including mental health problems and complexities Gamble Aware has facilitated the possibility to provide a new service which would extend the NGTS provision of residential rehabilitation for gambling disorder with complex and co-morbid presentation. Gordon Moody, together with Adferiad have been successful in securing the tender for this service and this presentation aims to introduce FOLD, the resulting model of treatment developed for the delivery of the service. Setting As a partnership, we have come together to coproduce a model which allows us to share our clinical and industry knowledge and build on our reputations as trusted treatment providers. The presentation will outline our expertise share in development of a unified approach to recovery-oriented models of care, clinical governance, risk assessment and management and aftercare and continuous recovery. We will also introduce our innovative specialist referral portal which will offer referring partners the ability to include the service user in planning their own recovery journey. Outcomes Our collaboration has resulted in the development of the FOLD model which includes three agile and flexible treatment packages aimed at offering the most enhanced and comprehensive treatment in UK, to date, for those most affected by gambling harm. The paper will offer insight into each treatment package and all recovery model stages involved, as well as into the partnership work with NGST providers, local mental health and social care providers and lived experience organisation that will enable us to offer support to more 100 people a year who would otherwise get “lost in the system”. Conclusion FOLD offers a great opportunity to develop, implement and evaluate a new, much needed, whole-person and whole-system approach to counter gambling related harms.

Keywords: gambling treatment, partnership working, integrated care pathways, NGTS, complex needs

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