Search results for: environmental model

Authors: Shane David van Zyl, A. J. Burger

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The global green energy shift has placed significant value on the production of green hydrogen and its derivatives. The study examines the impact on capital expenditure (CAPEX), operational expenditure (OPEX), levelized cost, and environmental impact, depending on the relationship between various production capacities of potable water, green hydrogen, and green ammonia. A model-based sensitivity analysis approach was used to determine the relevance of various process parameters in the production of potable water combined with green hydrogen or green ammonia production. The effects of changes on CAPEX, OPEX and levelized costs of the products were determined. Furthermore, a qualitative environmental impact analysis was done to determine the effect on the environment. The findings indicated the individual process unit contribution to the overall CAPEX and OPEX while also determining the major contributors to changes in the levelized costs of products. The results emphasize the difference in costs associated with potable water, green hydrogen, and green ammonia production, indicating the extent to which potable water production costs become insignificant in the complete process, which, therefore, can have a large social benefit through increased potable water production resulting in decreased water scarcity in the south-west African region.

Keywords: CAPEX and OPEX, desalination, green hydrogen and green ammonia, sensitivity analysis

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Authors: Mohammad Reza Shojaei, Mahdeih Mirzaeinia

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We have studied the cluster structure of even-even stable isotopes of Ge and Sr. The Schrodinger equation has been solved using the generalized parametric Nikiforov-Uvarov method with a phenomenological potential. This potential is the sum of the attractive Yukawa-like potential, a Manning-Rosen-type potential, and the repulsive Yukawa potential for interaction between the cluster and the core. We have shown that the available experimental data of the first rotational band energies can be well described by assuming a binary system of the α cluster and the core and using an analytical solution. Our results were consistent with experimental values. Hence, this model can be applied to study the other even-even isotopes

Keywords: cluser model, NU method, ge and Sr, potential central

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Authors: Ana María Rojas Chaparro, Cristian Camilo Sarmiento Chaves

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Given the growing importance of logistics as a discipline for efficient management of materials flow and information, the adoption of tools that permit to create facilities in making decisions based on a global perspective of the system studied has been essential. The article shows how from a concepts-based model is possible to organize and represent in appropriate way the reality, showing accurate and timely information, features that make this kind of models an ideal component to support an information system, recognizing that information as relevant to establish particularities that allow get a better performance about the evaluated sector.

Keywords: system, information, conceptual model, logistics

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Authors: B. Sir, M. Podhoranyi, S. Kuchar, T. Kocyan

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Rainfall-runoff models play important role in hydrological predictions. However, the model is only one part of the process for creation of flood prediction. The aim of this paper is to show the process of successful prediction for flood event (May 15–May 18 2014). The prediction was performed by rainfall runoff model HEC–HMS, one of the models computed within Floreon+ system. The paper briefly evaluates the results of automatic hydrologic prediction on the river Olše catchment and its gages Český Těšín and Věřňovice.

Keywords: flood, HEC-HMS, prediction, rainfall, runoff

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Authors: Penrug Pengsombut, Worawut Hamarn, Teerawuth Suwannasri, Kittiphong Songrukkiat, Kanatip Ratanachoo

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PTT Public Company Limited or simply PTT has played an important role in strengthening national energy security of the Kingdom of Thailand by transporting natural gas to customers in power, industrial and commercial sectors since 1981. PTT has been constructing and operating natural gas pipeline system of over 4,500-km network length both onshore and offshore laid through different area classifications i.e., marine, forest, agriculture, rural, urban, and city areas. During project development phase, an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) is conducted and submitted to the Office of Natural Resources and Environmental Policy and Planning (ONEP) for approval before project construction commencement. Knowledge and experiences gained and revealed from EIA in the past projects definitely are developed to further advance EIA study process for newly 5th Transmission Natural Gas Pipeline Project (5TP) with approximately 415 kilometers length. The preferred pipeline route is selected and justified by SMARTi map, an advance digital one-map platform with consists of multiple layers geographic and environmental information. Sensitive area impact focus (SAIF) is a practicable impact assessment methodology which appropriate for a particular long distance infrastructure project such as 5TP. An environmental modeling simulation is adopted into SAIF methodology for impact quantified in all sensitive areas whereas other area along pipeline right-of-ways is typically assessed as an impact representative. Resulting time and cost deduction is beneficial to project for early start.

Keywords: environmental impact assessment, EIA, natural gas pipeline, sensitive area impact focus, SAIF

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Authors: Fezzani Boubaker

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The modified activated sludge model (ASM1 or Mantis) is a generic structured model and a common platform for dynamic simulation of varieties of aerobic processes for optimization and upgrading of existing plants and for new facilities design. In this study, the modified ASM1 included in the GPS-X software was used to simulate the wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) of Beja treating domestic sewage mixed with baker‘s yeast factory effluent. The results of daily measurements and operating records were used to calibrate the model. A sensitivity and an automatic optimization analysis were conducted to determine the most sensitive and optimal parameters. The results indicated that the ASM1 model could simulate with good accuracy: the COD concentration of effluents from the WWTP of Beja for all months of the year 2012. In addition, it prevents the disruption observed at the output of the plant by injecting the baker‘s yeast factory effluent at high concentrations varied between 20 and 80 g/l.

Keywords: ASM1, activated sludge, baker’s yeast effluent, modelling, simulation, GPS-X 5.1 software

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Authors: A.Halim Sahelan, Mohd Halid Abu, Jamaluddin Hashim, Zulisman Maksom, Mohd Afif Md Nasir

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This study aims to assess the students' needs for the tour planning e-guide. The study is developing on the contribution and importance of the Educational Tour Planning Guide (ETP) is a multimedia courseware as one of the effective methods in teaching and learning of environmental science among the students in primary schools of the Ministry of Education, Malaysia. It is to provide the student with knowledge and experience about tourism, environmental science activities and process. E-guide to ETP also hopes to strengthen the student understanding toward the subject learns in the tourism environmental science. In order to assess the student's needs on the e-Guide to Educational Tour Planning in Environmental Science, the study has produced a similar e-Guide to ETP in the form as a courseware to be tested during the study. The study has involved several steps in order to be completed. It is such as the formulation of the problem, the review of the literature, the formulation of the study methodology, the production of the e-Guide to ETP, field survey and finally the analyses and discussion made on the data gathered during the study. The survey has involved 100 respondents among the students in standard six primary schools in Kluang Johor. Through the findings, the study indicates that the currently tested product is acceptable among the students in learning environmental science as a guide to plan for the tour. The findings also show a slight difference between the respondents who are using the e-Guide to ETP, and those who are not on the basis of the e-Guide to ETP results. Due the important for the study, the researcher hopes to be having a fair discussion and excellence, recommendation for the development of the product of the current study. This report is written also important to provide a written reference for the future related study.

Keywords: the tour planning e-guide, the Educational Tour Planning Guide, environmental science, multimedia course ware

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Authors: Ivan Sosa Gomez

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Digitalization has impacted the entire insurance value chain, and the growing movement towards P2P platforms and the collaborative economy is also beginning to have a significant impact. P2P insurance is defined as innovation, enabling policyholders to pool their capital, self-organize, and self-manage their own insurance. In this context, new InsurTech start-ups are emerging as peer-to-peer (P2P) providers, based on a model that differs from traditional insurance. As a result, although P2P platforms do not change the fundamental basis of insurance, they do enable potentially more efficient business models to be established in terms of ensuring the coverage of risk. It is therefore relevant to determine whether p2p innovation can have substantial effects on the future of the insurance sector. For this purpose, it is considered necessary to develop P2P innovation from a business perspective, as well as to build a comparison between a traditional model and a P2P model from an actuarial perspective. Objectives: The objectives are (1) to represent P2P innovation in the business model compared to the traditional insurance model and (2) to establish a comparison between a traditional model and a P2P model from an actuarial perspective. Methodology: The research design is defined as action research in terms of understanding and solving the problems of a collectivity linked to an environment, applying theory and best practices according to the approach. For this purpose, the study is carried out through the participatory variant, which involves the collaboration of the participants, given that in this design, participants are considered experts. For this purpose, prolonged immersion in the field is carried out as the main instrument for data collection. Finally, an actuarial model is developed relating to the calculation of premiums that allows for the establishment of projections of future scenarios and the generation of conclusions between the two models. Main Contributions: From an actuarial and business perspective, we aim to contribute by developing a comparison of the two models in the coverage of risk in order to determine whether P2P innovation can have substantial effects on the future of the insurance sector.

Keywords: Insurtech, innovation, business model, P2P, insurance

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Authors: Afshan Golriz

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This paper addresses the nuances in the relationship between the rural community of Volcan, Costa Rica, and the presence of multinational pineapple giant Pineapple Development Corporation (PINDECO). The paper analyzes the continuous negotiation between the need for environmental protection in the face of pineapple monoculture and the socioeconomic dependencies of the community on the company. Drawing on eight years of ethnographic work in Volcan de Buenos Aires and relying on intergenerational interviews that document oral histories, this article provides a socio-historical account of the economic and environmental impact of the presence of PINDECO in the southern zone of the country. The paper draws on interviews and in-depth participant observation, conducted by the author in intermittent periods over eight years. The research sheds light on the tensions between the village and PINDECO, as simultaneous acceptance of and opposition to the company persist by different stakeholders in the region. In doing so, this paper examines the strikingly powerful affinity toward the company and the community's regard for PINDECO as the town patriarch despite social and environmental injustices. In demonstrating these tensions, the author problematizes the practice of conducting foreign environmental research in developing countries, and more importantly, proposing changes to environmental conservation and socioeconomic structures without understanding community reliance on the presence of corporations such as PINDECO and the threats that changes to existing structures could pose to community members' livelihoods. In complicating these common western academic practices, the author takes an anti-colonial approach to environmental research, refusing the assumption that the affinity toward the company by the community of Volcan is rooted in ignorance, lack of education, or lack of interest in environmental conservation. The author instead highlights local knowledge and agency, demonstrating the many ways in which the community itself is producing knowledge and taking action. Through this paper, common assumptions regarding the agency of such communities are contested, and the grassroots environmental initiatives of Volcan, Costa Rica are brought to life.

Keywords: environmental conservation, grassroots movements, local knowledge, agricultural multinational

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Authors: Flevy Lasrado

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Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to show the relationship between the service quality dimensions and model them to propose quality improvements using interpretive structural modelling (ISM). Methodology: This paper used an interpretive structural modelling (ISM). The data was collected from the expert opinions that included a questionnaire. The detailed method of using ISM is discussed in the paper. Findings: The present research work provides an ISM based model to understand the relationships among the service quality dimensions. Practical implications or Original Value: An ISM based model has been developed for healthcare facility for improving customer satisfaction and increasing market share. Although there is lot of research on SERVQUAL model adapted to healthcare sector, no study has been done to understand the interactions among these dimensions. So the major contribution of this research work is the development of contextual relationships among identified variables through a systematic framework. The present research work provides an ISM based model to understand the relationships among the service quality dimensions.

Keywords: SERQUAL, healthcare, quality, service quality

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Authors: Nikki Berrange, Gizelle Willows

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Business rescue has become increasingly popular since its inclusion in the Companies Act of South Africa in May 2011. The Alternate Exchange (AltX) of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange has experienced a marked increase in the number of companies entering business rescue. This study sampled twenty companies listed on the AltX to determine whether Altman’s Z-score model for emerging markets (ZEM) or Taffler’s Z-score model is a more accurate model in predicting financial distress for small to medium size companies in South Africa. The study was performed over three different time horizons; one, two and three years prior to the event of financial distress, in order to determine how many companies each model predicted would be unlikely to succeed as well as the predictive ability and accuracy of the respective models. The study found that Taffler’s Z-score model had a greater ability at predicting financial distress from all three-time horizons.

Keywords: Altman’s ZEM-score, Altman’s Z-score, AltX, business rescue, Taffler’s Z-score

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Authors: G. L. C. Yap

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Modelling realized volatility with high-frequency returns is popular as it is an unbiased and efficient estimator of return volatility. A computationally simple model is fitting the logarithms of the realized volatilities with a fractionally integrated long-memory Gaussian process. The Gaussianity assumption simplifies the parameter estimation using the Whittle approximation. Nonetheless, this assumption may not be met in the finite samples and there may be a need to normalize the financial series. Based on the empirical indices S&P500 and DAX, this paper examines the performance of the linear volatility model pre-treated with normalization compared to its existing counterpart. The empirical results show that by including normalization as a pre-treatment procedure, the forecast performance outperforms the existing model in terms of statistical and economic evaluations.

Keywords: Gaussian process, long-memory, normalization, value-at-risk, volatility, Whittle estimator

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Authors: James Kinsella

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There is currently very little understanding of how the interaction between in- vestors, consumers, the firms (agents) affect a) the transmission of information, and b) the creation and transfer of value and wealth between these two groups. Employing scholarly ideas from multiple research areas (behavioural finance, emotional finance, econo-biology, and game theory) we develop a conceptual the- oretic model (the ‘bow-tie’ model) as a framework for considering this interaction. Our bow-tie model views information transfer, value and wealth creation, and transfer through the lens of “investor-consumer connection facilitated through the communicative medium of the ‘firm’ (agents)”. We confront our bow-tie model with theoretical and practical examples. Next, we utilise consumer and business confidence data alongside index data, to conduct quantitative analy- sis, to support our bow-tie concept, and to introduce the concept of “investor- consumer connection”. We highlight the importance of information persuasiveness, knowledge, and emotional categorization of characteristics in facilitating a communicative relationship between investors, consumers, and the firm (agents), forming academic and practical applications of the conceptual bow-tie model, alongside applications to wider instances, such as those seen within the Covid-19 pandemic.

Keywords: behavioral finance, emotional finance, economy-biology, social mood

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Authors: Ann Mariya Jose, Ashfina T.

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Construction and demolition waste is one of the rising concerns globally due to the amount of waste generated annually, the area taken up by landfills, and the adverse environmental impacts that follow. One of the primary causes of the rise in construction and demolition waste is a lack of facilities and knowledge for incorporating recycled materials into new construction. Bricks are a conventional material that has been used for construction for centuries, and Autoclave Aerated Concrete (AAC) blocks are a new emergent material in the market. This study evaluates the impact brick walls, and AAC block walls have on the environment using the tool One Click LCA, considering three End of Life (EoL) scenarios: the materials are landfilled, recycled, and reused in a new building. The final objective of the study is to evaluate the environmental impact caused by these two different walls on the environmental factors such as Global Warming Potential (GWP), Acidification Potential (AP), Eutrophication Potential (EP), Ozone Depletion Potential (ODP), and Photochemical Ozone Creation Potential (POCP). The findings revealed that the GWP caused by landfilling is 16 times higher in bricks and 22 times higher in AAC blocks when compared to the reuse of materials. The study recommends the effective use of AAC blocks in construction and reuse of the same to reduce the overall emissions to the environment.

Keywords: construction and demolition waste, environmental impact, life cycle impact assessment, material recycling

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Authors: Syahruddin Sumardi, Indra Fajar Alamsyah, Junaidah Hashim

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This study attempts to explore and presents a proposed recruitment model in Islamic university which aligned with holistic role. It is a conceptual paper in nature. In turn, this study is designed to utilize exploratory approach. Literature and document review that related to this topic are used as the methods to analyse the content found. Recruitment for any organization is fundamental to achieve its goal effectively. Staffing in universities is vital due to the importance role of lecturers. Currently, Islamic universities still adopt the common process of recruitment for their academic staffs. Whereas, they have own characteristics which are embedded in their institutions. Furthermore, the FCWC (Foundation, Capability, Worldview and Commitment) model of recruitment proposes to suit the holistic character of Islamic university. Further studies are required to empirically validate the concept through systematic investigations. Additionally, measuring this model by a designed means is appreciated. The model provides the map and alternative tool of recruitment for Islamic universities to determine the process of recruitment which can appropriate their institutions. In addition, it also allows stakeholders and policy makers to consider regarding Islamic values that should inculcate in the Islamic higher learning institutions. This study initiates a foundational contribution for an early sequence of research.

Keywords: academic staff, Islamic values, recruitment model, university

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Authors: Trianasari, Gede Adi Yuniarta

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The tourism industry has been widely recognized as one of the world’s largest industries and is expected to have continuous growth. While it has positive impacts especially on the job markets and economic aspect, this industry also brings serious environmental impacts that may not be neglected. As such, the tourism industry is faced with increasing demands and challenges to deal with the environmental issues. Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) is a way to show the firms’ concern on the societal and environmental aspects. In line with the increasing pressure on such responsibilities, a growing number of firms have involved in CSR activities. In Bali, the majority of both chained and locally owned hotels have shown their efforts on CSR practices. However, little is known about what and how they perform or implement such program especially within the environmental aspect. The importance of understanding what they focus on lays in the identification of areas that have received sufficient treatment and those that require more attention. Furthermore, also, it is especially essential considering that Bali is one of the worldly known destinations that have been facing numerous crucial issues on environment that may threaten the sustainability of the island and its people. This paper reports on the results of a study exploring the practices of CSR in hotels in Bali. Data were collected from 49 hotel managers and human resource managers in Bali across four major tourist areas, using semi structured interview method. The analysis was conducted qualitatively. The results showed that all hotels under study have implemented CSR activities in which environment was found to be the second key aspect, following the activities directly related to community aspect. Moreover, there were five major types of environmental action identified: beach cleaning, replantation, marine conservation, turtle conservation, mangrove, and garbage management. These findings suggest that hotels in Bali under study have shown their concern on the environment, however, less attention was given on attempt to reduce the environmental impacts of their operations. Mapping the types of environmental related CSR activities enhances the knowledge of and gives lights into the CSR literature especially from the perspective of Eastern practice.

Keywords: CSR, exploratory study, sustainable tourism, tourist object

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Authors: Rawaa El Ayoubi

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Many researchers, academics and practitioners have developed leadership theories during the 20th century. This substantial effort has built more leadership theories, generating considerable organisational research on leadership models in contemporary literature. This paper explores the stages and drivers of leadership theory evolution based on the researcher’s personal conclusions and review of leadership theories. The purpose of this paper is to create a Leadership Process Model (LPM) that can provide guidance in dealing with the key challenges within the organisation. This integrative model of organisational leadership is based on inner meaning, leader values and vision. It further addresses the relationships between leadership theory, practice and development, exploring why challenges exist within the field of leadership theory and how these challenges can be mitigated.

Keywords: leadership challenges, leadership process model, leadership |theories, organisational leadership, paradigm development

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Authors: A. Shebani, C. Pislaru

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Wear of materials is an everyday experience and has been observed and studied for long time. The prediction of wear is a fundamental problem in the industrial field, mainly correlated to the planning of maintenance interventions and economy. Pin-on-disc test is the most common test which is used to study the wear behaviour. In this paper, the pin-on-disc (AEROTECH UNIDEX 11) is used for the investigation of the effects of normal load and hardness of material on the wear under dry and sliding conditions. In the pin-on-disc rig, two specimens were used; one, a pin which is made of steel with a tip, is positioned perpendicular to the disc, where the disc is made of aluminium. The pin wear and disc wear were measured by using the following instruments: The Talysurf instrument, a digital microscope, and the alicona instrument; where the Talysurf profilometer was used to measure the pin/disc wear scar depth, and the alicona was used to measure the volume loss for pin and disc. After that, the Archard model, American Society for Testing and Materials model (ASTM), and neural network model were used for pin/disc wear modelling and the simulation results are implemented by using the Matlab program. This paper focuses on how the alicona can be considered as a powerful tool for wear measurements and how the neural network is an effective algorithm for wear estimation.

Keywords: wear modelling, Archard Model, ASTM Model, Neural Networks Model, Pin-on-disc Test, Talysurf, digital microscope, Alicona

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Authors: M. Graus, K. Westhoff, X. Xu

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The climate change causes a change in all aspects of society. While the expansion of renewable energies proceeds, industry could not be convinced based on general studies about the potential of demand side management to reinforce smart grid considerations in their operational business. In this article, a procedure model for a case-specific data-driven decision support for industrial energy management based on a holistic data analytics approach is presented. The model is executed on the example of the strategic decision problem, to integrate the aspect of renewable energies into industrial energy management. This question is induced due to considerations of changing the electricity contract model from a standard rate to volatile energy prices corresponding to the energy spot market which is increasingly more affected by renewable energies. The procedure model corresponds to a data analytics process consisting on a data model, analysis, simulation and optimization step. This procedure will help to quantify the potentials of sustainable production concepts based on the data from a factory. The model is validated with data from a printer in analogy to a simple production machine. The overall goal is to establish smart grid principles for industry via the transformation from knowledge-driven to data-driven decisions within manufacturing companies.

Keywords: data analytics, green production, industrial energy management, optimization, renewable energies, simulation

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Authors: Mehri Bagherkazemi, Naser Hafezi Moghaddas

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This study investigates the environmental impact of the disposal site located in Shahrood city, focusing on the geological characteristics of the region. Shahrood's disposal site primarily consists of limestone bedrock, overlaid by substantial alluvial deposits. The area's highly permeable soil is anticipated to have a significant influence on groundwater pollution. Spanning 52 hectares, the Shahrood disposal site is situated in the eastern sector of the city. Historically, waste disposal took place on the surface, but recent practices involve on-site trenching. This research involved the collection of soil and water samples near the disposal site, with subsequent analysis of 11 soil samples and 3 water samples. The soil's particle size distribution was determined, and comprehensive analyses were conducted for 35 elements in the soil and 42 elements in water. The study combines the results of these tests with field investigations to evaluate the landfill's impact on the surrounding soil and groundwater contamination.

Keywords: environmental geology, environmental impact assessment, disposal site, heavy metals contamination

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Authors: H. D. Ibrahim, H. C. Chinwenyi, T. Danjuma

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An option is defined as a financial contract that provides the holder the right but not the obligation to buy or sell a specified quantity of an underlying asset in the future at a fixed price (called a strike price) on or before the expiration date of the option. This paper examined two approaches for derivation of Partial Differential Equation (PDE) options price valuation formula for the Heston stochastic volatility model. We obtained various PDE option price valuation formulas using the riskless portfolio method and the application of Feynman-Kac theorem respectively. From the results obtained, we see that the two derived PDEs for Heston model are distinct and non-unique. This establishes the fact of incompleteness in the model for option price valuation.

Keywords: Black-Scholes partial differential equations, Ito process, option price valuation, partial differential equations

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Authors: Nahid Banihashemi

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An emerging important area of the life sciences is systems biology, which involves understanding the integrated behavior of large numbers of components interacting via non-linear reaction terms. A centrally important problem in this area is an understanding of the co-metabolism of protein and carbohydrate, as it has been clearly demonstrated that the ratio of these metabolites in diet is a major determinant of obesity and related chronic disease. In this regard, we have considered a systems biology model for the co-metabolism of carbon and nitrogen in colonies of the fungus Mucor mucedo. Oscillations are an important diagnostic of underlying dynamical processes of this model. The maintenance of specific patterns of oscillation and its relation to the robustness of this system are the important issues which have been targeted in this paper. In this regard, parametric sensitivity approach as a theoretical approach has been considered for the analysis of the robustness of this model. As a result, the parameters of the model which produce the largest sensitivities have been identified. Furthermore, the largest changes that can be made in each parameter of the model without losing the oscillations in biomass production have been computed. The results are obtained from the implementation of parametric sensitivity analysis in Matlab.

Keywords: system biology, parametric sensitivity analysis, robustness, carbon and nitrogen co-metabolism, Mucor mucedo

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Authors: Isik Cetintav, Cenk Misirli, Yilmaz Can

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This work investigates upsetting of the tri-metallic cylindrical billets both experimentally and analytically with a reduction ratio 30%. Steel, brass, and copper are used for the outer and outmost rings and aluminum for the inner core. Two different models have been designed to show material flow and the cavity took place over the two interfaces during forming after this reduction ratio. Each model has an outmost ring material as steel. Model 1 has an outer ring between the outmost ring and the solid core material as copper and Model 2 has a material as brass. Solid core is aluminum for each model. Billets were upset in press machine by using parallel flat dies. Upsetting load was recorded and compared for models and single billets. To extend the tests and compare with experimental procedure to a wider range of inner core and outer ring geometries, finite element model was performed. ABAQUS software was used for the simulations. The aim is to show how contact between outmost ring, outer ring and the inner core are carried on throughout the upsetting process. Results have shown that, with changing in height, between outmost ring, outer ring and inner core, the Model 1 and Model 2 had very good interaction, and the contact surfaces of models had various interface behaviour. It is also observed that tri-metallic materials have lower weight but better mechanical properties than single materials. This can give an idea for using and producing these new materials for different purposes.

Keywords: tri-metallic, upsetting, copper, brass, steel, aluminum

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Authors: Hilya Mudrika Arini, Nur Aini Masruroh, Budi Hartono

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There are more than 20 terrorist threats from 2002 to 2012 in Indonesia. Despite of this fact, preventive solution through studies in the field of national security in Indonesia has not been conducted comprehensively. This study aims to provide a preventive solution by developing prediction model of the terrorist threat in Indonesia by using Bayesian network. There are eight stages to build the model, started from literature review, build and verify Bayesian belief network to what-if scenario. In order to build the model, four experts from different perspectives are utilized. This study finds several significant findings. First, news and the readiness of terrorist group are the most influent factor. Second, according to several scenarios of the news portion, it can be concluded that the higher positive news proportion, the higher probability of terrorist threat will occur. Therefore, the preventive solution to reduce the terrorist threat in Indonesia based on the model is by keeping the positive news portion to a maximum of 38%.

Keywords: Bayesian network, decision analysis, national security system, text mining

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Authors: Tomas Makaras

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Sticklebacks (Gasterosteiformes) are increasingly used in ecological and evolutionary research and become well-established role as model species for biologists. However, ecotoxicology studies concerning behavioural effects in sticklebacks regarding stress responses, mainly induced by chemical mixtures, have hardly been addressed. Moreover, although many authors in their studies emphasised the similarity between three-spined and nine-spined stickleback in morphological, neuroanatomical and behavioural adaptations to environmental changes, several comparative studies have revealed considerable differences between these species in and their susceptibility and resistance to variousstressors in laboratory experiments. The hypothesis of this study was that three-spined and nine-spined stickleback species will demonstrate apparent differences in response patterns and sensitivity to metal-based chemicals stimuli. For this purpose, we investigated the swimming behaviour (including mortality rate based on 96-h LC50 values) of two ecologically similar three-spined (Gasterosteusaculeatus) and nine-spined sticklebacks (Pungitiuspungitius) to short-term (up to 24 h) metal mixture (MIX) exposure. We evaluated the relevance and efficacy of behavioural responses of test species in the early toxicity assessment of chemical mixtures. Fish exposed to six (Zn, Pb, Cd, Cu, Ni and Cr) metals in the mixture were either singled out by the Water Framework Directive as priority or as relevant substances in surface water, which was prepared according to the environmental quality standards (EQSs) of these metals set for inland waters in the European Union (EU) (Directive 2013/39/EU). Based on acute toxicity results, G. aculeatus found to be slightly (1.4-fold) more tolerant of MIX impact than those of P. pungitius specimens. The performed behavioural analysis showed the main effect on the interaction between time, species and treatment variables. Although both species exposed to MIX revealed a decreasing tendency in swimming activity, these species’ responsiveness to MIX was somewhat different. Substantial changes in the activity of G. aculeatus were established after 3-h exposure to MIX solutions, which was 1.43-fold lower, while in the case of P. pungitius, 1.96-fold higher than established 96-h LC50 values for each species. This study demonstrated species-specific differences in response sensitivity to metal-based water pollution, indicating behavioural insensitivity of P. pungitiuscompared to G. aculeatus. While many studies highlight the usefulness and suitability of nine-spined sticklebacks for evolutionary and ecological research, attested by their increasing popularity in these fields, great caution must be exercised when using them as model species in ecotoxicological research to probe metal contamination. Meanwhile, G. aculeatus showed to be a promising bioindicator species in the environmental ecotoxicology field.

Keywords: acute toxicity, comparative behaviour, metal mixture, swimming activity

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Authors: Swati Rajput

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Environmental psychology explains that the person is a social agent that seeks to extract meaning from their built and natural environment to behave in a particular manner. It also shows the attachment or detachment of people to their environment. Assessing environmental psychology of people is imperative for planners and policy makers for urban planning. The paper investigates the environmental psychology of people living in nine districts of Delhi by calculating and assessing their Environmental Emotional Quotient (EEQ). Emotional Quotient deals with the ability to sense, understand, attach and respond according to the power of emotions. An Environmental Emotional Quotient has been formulated based upon the inventory administered to them. The respondents were asked questions related to their view and emotions about the green spaces, water resource conservation, air and environmental quality. An effort has been made to assess the feeling of belongingness among the residents. Their views were assessed on green spaces, reuse, and recycling of resources and their participation level. They were also been assessed upon health awareness level by considering both preventive and curative segments of health care. It was found that only 12 percent of the people is emotionally attached to their surroundings in the city. The emotional attachment reduces as we move away from the house to housing complex to neighbouring areas and rest of the city. In fact, the emotional quotient goes lower to lowest from house to other ends of the city. It falls abruptly after the radius of 1 km from the residence. The result also shows that nearly 54% respondents accept that there is environment pollution in their area. Around 47.8% respondents in the survey consider that diseases occur because of green cover depiction in their area. Major diseases are to airborne diseases like asthma and bronchitis. Seasonal disease prevalent, which specially occurred from last 3-4 years are malaria, dengue and chikengunya. Survey also shows that only 31 % of respondents visit government hospitals while 69% respondents visit private hospitals or small clinics for healthcare services. The paper suggests the need for environmental sensitive policies and need for green insurance in mega cities like Delhi.

Keywords: environmental psychology, environmental emotional quotient, preventive health care and curative health care, sustainable living

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Authors: Ji-Hyok Kim, Il-Gyong Paek, Yong-Jun Kim

Abstract:

We propose a numerical model based on drift-diffusion theory and lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) to analyze the electro-hydrodynamic behavior in low-pressure direct current (DC) glow discharge plasmas. We apply the drift-diffusion theory for 4-species and employ the standard lattice Boltzmann model (SLBM) for the electron, the finite difference-lattice Boltzmann model (FD-LBM) for heavy particles, and the finite difference model (FDM) for the electric potential, respectively. Our results are compared with those of other methods, and emphasize the necessity of a two-dimensional analysis for glow discharge.

Keywords: glow discharge, lattice Boltzmann method, numerical analysis, plasma simulation, electro-hydrodynamic

Procedia PDF Downloads 110

Authors: Georgia Pozoukidou

Abstract:

TELUM software is a land use model designed specifically to help metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) prepare their transportation improvement programs and fulfill their numerous planning responsibilities. In this context obtaining, preparing, and validating socioeconomic forecasts are becoming fundamental tasks for an MPO in order to ensure that consistent population and employment data are provided to travel demand models. Chittenden County Metropolitan Planning Organization of Vermont State was used as a case study to test the applicability of TELUM land use model. The technical insights and lessons learned from the land use model application have transferable value for all MPOs faced with land use forecasting development and transportation modelling.

Keywords: calibration data requirements, land use models, land use planning, metropolitan planning organizations

Procedia PDF Downloads 286

Authors: M. Z. Raqab, Debasis Kundu, M. A. Meraou

Abstract:

In this paper, we have analyzed maximum precipitation data during a particular period of time obtained from different stations in the Global Historical Climatological Network of the USA. One important point to mention is that some stations are shut down on certain days for some reason or the other. Hence, the maximum values are recorded by excluding those readings. It is assumed that the number of stations that operate follows zero-truncated Poisson random variables, and the daily precipitation follows a lognormal random variable. We call this model a compound truncated Poisson lognormal model. The proposed model has three unknown parameters, and it can take a variety of shapes. The maximum likelihood estimators can be obtained quite conveniently using Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. Approximate maximum likelihood estimators are also derived. The associated confidence intervals also can be obtained from the observed Fisher information matrix. Simulation results have been performed to check the performance of the EM algorithm, and it is observed that the EM algorithm works quite well in this case. When we analyze the precipitation data set using the proposed model, it is observed that the proposed model provides a better fit than some of the existing models.

Keywords: compound Poisson lognormal distribution, EM algorithm, maximum likelihood estimation, approximate maximum likelihood estimation, Fisher information, skew distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 106

Authors: Mais Khader, Xingjie Wei

Abstract:

This research sheds light on female entrepreneurs by providing new insights on the survival predictions of companies led by females in the UK. This study aims to build a predictive machine learning model of the survival of female-led & co-led small & medium enterprises (SMEs) in the UK over the period 2000-2020. The predictive model built utilised a combination of financial and non-financial features related to both companies and their directors to predict SMEs' survival. These features were studied in terms of their contribution to the resultant predictive model. Five machine learning models are used in the modelling: Decision tree, AdaBoost, Naïve Bayes, Logistic regression and SVM. The AdaBoost model had the highest performance of the five models, with an accuracy of 73% and an AUC of 80%. The results show high feature importance in predicting companies' survival for company size, management experience, financial performance, industry, region, and females' percentage in management.

Keywords: company survival, entrepreneurship, females, machine learning, SMEs

Procedia PDF Downloads 96