Search results for: predictive modeling

Authors: Christian Angerer, Markus Lienkamp

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Electric vehicles offer a high variety of possible drivetrain topologies with up to 4 motors. Multi-motor-designs can have several advantages regarding traction, vehicle dynamics, safety and even efficiency. With a rising number of motors, the whole drivetrain becomes more complex. All permutations of gearings, drivetrain-layouts, motor-types and –sizes lead up in a very large solution space. Single elements of this solution space can be analyzed by simulation methods. In addition to longitudinal vehicle behavior, which most optimization-approaches are restricted to, also lateral dynamics are important for vehicle dynamics, stability and efficiency. In order to compete large solution spaces and to find an optimal result, genetic algorithm based optimization is state-of-the-art. As lateral dynamics simulation is way more CPU-intensive, optimization takes much more time than in case of longitudinal-only simulation. Therefore, this paper shows an approach how to create meta-models from a 14-degree of freedom vehicle model in order to enable a numerically efficient drivetrain-layout optimization process under consideration of lateral dynamics. Different meta-modelling approaches such as neural networks or DoE are implemented and comparatively discussed.

Keywords: driving dynamics, drivetrain layout, genetic optimization, meta-modeling, lateral dynamicx

Procedia PDF Downloads 414

Authors: Davood Barari Tari

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In order to investigate the correlation of rice traits in different nitrogen management methods by modeling programming, an experiment was laid out in rice paddy field in an experimental field at Caspian Coastal Sea region from 2013 to 2014. Variety used was Shiroudi as a high yielding variety. Nitrogen management was in two methods. Amount of nitrogen at four levels (30, 60, 90, and 120 Kg N ha-1 and control) and nitrogen-splitting at four levels (T1: 50% in base + 50% in maximum tillering stage, T2= 33.33% basal +33.33% in maximum tillering stage +33.33% in panicle initiation stage, T3=25% basal+37.5% in maximum tillering stage +37.5% in panicle initiation stage, T4: 25% in basal + 25% in maximum tillering stage + 50% in panicle initiation stage). Results showed that nitrogen traits, total grain number, filled spikelets, panicle number per m2 had a significant correlation with grain yield. Results related to calibrated and validation of rice model methods indicated that correlation between rice yield and yield components was accurate. The correlation between panicle length and grain yield was minimum. Physiological indices was simulated with low accuracy. According to results, investigation of the correlation between rice traits in physiological, morphological and phenological characters and yield by modeling and simulation methods are very useful.

Keywords: rice, physiology, modelling, simulation, yield traits

Procedia PDF Downloads 341

Authors: Shilpesh R. Rajpurohit, Harshit K. Dave

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Fused deposition modeling (FDM) gains popularity in recent times, due to its capability to create prototype as well as functional end use product directly from CAD file. Parts fabricated using FDM process have mechanical properties comparable with those of injection-molded parts. However, performance of the FDM part is severally affected by the poor mechanical properties of the part due to nature of layered structure of printed part. Mechanical properties of the part can be improved by proper selection of process variables. In the present study, a comparative study between unidirectional and bidirectional raster angle has been carried out at a combination of different layer height and raster width. Unidirectional raster angle varied at five different levels, and bidirectional raster angle has been varied at three different levels. Fabrication of tensile specimen and tensile testing of specimen has been conducted according to ASTM D638 standard. From the results, it can be observed that higher tensile strength has been obtained at 0° raster angle followed by 45°/45° raster angle, while lower tensile strength has been obtained at 90° raster angle. Analysis of fractured surface revealed that failure takes place along with raster deposition direction for unidirectional and zigzag failure can be observed for bidirectional raster angle.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, fused deposition modeling, unidirectional, bidirectional, raster angle, tensile strength

Procedia PDF Downloads 183

Authors: Vasudha Hegde, Narendra Chaulagain, H. M. Ravikumar, Sonu Mishra, Siva Yellampalli

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Acoustic sensors are extensively used in recent days not only for sensing and condition monitoring applications but also for small scale energy harvesting applications to power wireless sensor networks (WSN) due to their inherent advantages. The natural frequency of the structure plays a major role in energy harvesting applications since the sensor key element has to operate at resonant frequency. In this paper, circular diaphragm based MEMS acoustic sensor is modelled by Lumped Element Model (LEM) and the natural frequency is compared with the simulated model using Finite Element Method (FEM) tool COMSOL Multiphysics. The sensor has the circular diaphragm of 3000 µm radius and thickness of 30 µm to withstand the high SPL (Sound Pressure Level) and also to withstand the various fabrication steps. A Piezoelectric ZnO layer of thickness of 1 µm sandwiched between two aluminium electrodes of thickness 0.5 µm and is coated on the diaphragm. Further, a channel with radius 3000 µm radius and length 270 µm is connected at the bottom of the diaphragm. The natural frequency of the structure by LEM method is approximately 16.6 kHz which is closely matching with that of simulated structure with suitable approximations.

Keywords: acoustic sensor, diaphragm based, lumped element modeling (LEM), natural frequency, piezoelectric

Procedia PDF Downloads 439

Authors: Jaimala Ghambir, Tilak Thakur, Puneet Chawla

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As per the statistical data, the Doubly-fed Induction Generator (DFIG) based wind turbine with variable speed and variable pitch control is the most common wind turbine in the growing wind market. This machine is usually used on the grid connected wind energy conversion system to satisfy grid code requirements such as grid stability, fault ride through (FRT), power quality improvement, grid synchronization and power control etc. Though the requirements are not fulfilled directly by the machine, the control strategy is used in both the stator as well as rotor side along with power electronic converters to fulfil the requirements stated above. To satisfy the grid code requirements of wind turbine, usually grid side converter is playing a major role. So in order to improve the operation capacity of wind turbine under critical situation, the intensive study of both machine side converter control and grid side converter control is necessary In this paper DFIG is modeled using power components as variables and the performance of the DFIG system is analysed under grid voltage fluctuations. The voltage fluctuations are made by lowering and raising the voltage values in the utility grid intentionally for the purpose of simulation keeping in view of different grid disturbances.

Keywords: DFIG, dynamic modeling, DPC, sag, swell, voltage fluctuations, FRT

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Authors: Hassiba Benguergoura, Kamal Chanane, Sâad Moulay

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Pervaporation (PV), a membrane-based separation technology, has gained much attention because of its energy saving capability and low-cost, especially for separation of azeotropic or close-boiling liquid mixtures. There are two crucial issues for industrial application of pervaporation process. The first is developing membrane material and tailoring membrane structure to obtain high pervaporation performances. The second is modeling pervaporation transport to better understand of the above-mentioned structure–pervaporation relationship. Many models were proposed to predict the mass transfer process, among them, solution-diffusion model is most widely used in describing pervaporation transport including preferential sorption, diffusion and evaporation steps. For modeling pervaporation transport, the permeation flux, which depends on the solubility and diffusivity of components in the membrane, should be obtained first. Traditionally, the solubility was calculated according to the Flory–Huggins theory. Separation of the benzene (Bz)/cyclohexane (Cx) mixture is industrially significant. Numerous papers have been focused on the Bz/Cx system to assess the PV properties of membrane materials. Membranes with both high permeability and selectivity are desirable for practical application. Several new polymers have been prepared to get both high permeability and selectivity. Styrene-butadiene rubbers (SBR), dense membranes cross-linked by chloromethylation were used in the separation of benzene/cyclohexane mixtures. The impact of chloromethylation reaction as a new method of cross-linking SBR on the pervaporation performance have been reported. In contrast to the vulcanization with sulfur, the cross-linking takes places on styrene units of polymeric chains via a methylene bridge. The partial pervaporative (PV) fluxes of benzene/cyclohexane mixtures in styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) were predicted using Fick's first law. The predicted partial fluxes and the PV separation factor agreed well with the experimental data by integrating Fick's law over the benzene concentration. The effects of feed concentration and operating temperature on the predicted permeation flux by this proposed model are investigated. The predicted permeation fluxes are in good agreement with experimental data at lower benzene concentration in feed, but at higher benzene concentration, the model overestimated permeation flux. The predicted and experimental permeation fluxes all increase with operating temperature increasing. Solvent sorption levels for benzene/ cyclohexane mixtures in a SBR membrane were determined experimentally. The results showed that the solvent sorption levels were strongly affected by the feed composition. The Flory- Huggins equation generates higher R-square coefficient for the sorption selectivity.

Keywords: benzene, cyclohexane, pervaporation, permeation, sorption modeling, SBR

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Authors: L. Grinis

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Turbulent flow in complex geometries receives considerable attention due to its importance in many engineering applications. It has been the subject of interest for many researchers. Some of these interests include the design of storm water channels. The design of these channels requires testing through physical models. The main practical limitation of physical models is the so called “scale effect”, that is, the fact that in many cases only primary physical mechanisms can be correctly represented, while secondary mechanisms are often distorted. These observations form the basis of our study, which centered on problems associated with the design of storm water channels near the Dead Sea, in Israel. To help reach a final design decision we used different physical models. Our research showed good coincidence with the results of laboratory tests and theoretical calculations, and allowed us to study different effects of fluid flow in an open channel. We determined that problems of this nature cannot be solved only by means of theoretical calculation and computer simulation. This study demonstrates the use of physical models to help resolve very complicated problems of fluid flow through baffles and similar structures. The study applies these models and observations to different construction and multiphase water flows, among them, those that include sand and stone particles, a significant attempt to bring to the testing laboratory a closer association with reality.

Keywords: open channel, physical modeling, baffles, turbulent flow

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Authors: Dena Alhaloul

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The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is characterized by diverse cultures, economies, and social structures. Fertility rates in MENA have seen significant changes over time, with variations among countries and subregions. Understanding fertility patterns in this region is essential due to its impact on demographic dynamics, healthcare, labor markets, and social policies. Rising or declining fertility rates have far-reaching consequences for the region's socioeconomic development. The main thrust of this study is to comprehensively examine fertility rates in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. It aims to understand the distribution, determinants, and temporal trends of fertility rates in MENA countries. The study seeks to provide insights into the factors influencing fertility decisions, assess how fertility rates have evolved over time, and potentially develop statistical models to characterize these trends. As for the methodology of the study, the study uses descriptive statistics to summarize and visualize fertility rate data. It also uses regression analyses to identify determinants of fertility rates as well as statistical modeling to characterize temporal trends in fertility rates. The conclusion of this study The research will contribute to a deeper understanding of fertility dynamics in the MENA region, shedding light on the distribution of fertility rates, their determinants, and historical trends.

Keywords: fertility, distribution, modeling, regression

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Authors: Sina Dehghani, Zhikang Rong

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Historically, a variety of approaches have been taken to forecast commodity prices due to the significant implications of these values on the global economy. An accurate forecasting tool for a valuable commodity would significantly benefit investors and governmental agencies. Silver, in particular, has grown significantly as a commodity in recent years due to its use in healthcare and technology. This manuscript aims to utilize the Geometric Brownian Motion predictive model to forecast silver commodity prices over multiple 3-year periods. The results of the study indicate that the model has several limitations, particularly its inability to work effectively over longer periods of time, but still was extremely effective over shorter time frames. This study sets a baseline for silver commodity forecasting with GBM, and the model could be further strengthened with refinement.

Keywords: geometric Brownian motion, commodity, risk management, volatility, stochastic behavior, price forecasting

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Authors: Jing Jiang, Wenhuan XU, Lei Zhang, Shiyi Zhang, Tongli Wang

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Climate data quality significantly affects the reliability of ecological modeling. In the Asia Pacific (AP) region, low-quality climate data hinders ecological modeling. ClimateAP, a software developed in 2017, generates high-quality climate data for the AP region, benefiting researchers in forestry and agriculture. However, its adoption remains limited. This study aims to confirm the validity of biologically relevant variable data generated by ClimateAP during the normal climate period through comparison with the currently available gridded data. Climate data from 2,366 weather stations were used to evaluate the prediction accuracy of ClimateAP in comparison with the commonly used gridded data from WorldClim1.4. Univariate regressions were applied to 48 monthly biologically relevant variables, and the relationship between the observational data and the predictions made by ClimateAP and WorldClim was evaluated using Adjusted R-Squared and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). Locations were categorized into mountainous and flat landforms, considering elevation, slope, ruggedness, and Topographic Position Index. Univariate regressions were then applied to all biologically relevant variables for each landform category. Random Forest (RF) models were implemented for the climatic niche modeling of Cunninghamia lanceolata. A comparative analysis of the prediction accuracies of RF models constructed with distinct climate data sources was conducted to evaluate their relative effectiveness. Biologically relevant variables were obtained from three unpublished Chinese meteorological datasets. ClimateAPv3.0 and WorldClim predictions were obtained from weather station coordinates and WorldClim1.4 rasters, respectively, for the normal climate period of 1961-1990. Occurrence data for Cunninghamia lanceolata came from integrated biodiversity databases with 3,745 unique points. ClimateAP explains a minimum of 94.74%, 97.77%, 96.89%, and 94.40% of monthly maximum, minimum, average temperature, and precipitation variances, respectively. It outperforms WorldClim in 37 biologically relevant variables with lower RMSE values. ClimateAP achieves higher R-squared values for the 12 monthly minimum temperature variables and consistently higher Adjusted R-squared values across all landforms for precipitation. ClimateAP's temperature data yields lower Adjusted R-squared values than gridded data in high-elevation, rugged, and mountainous areas but achieves higher values in mid-slope drainages, plains, open slopes, and upper slopes. Using ClimateAP improves the prediction accuracy of tree occurrence from 77.90% to 82.77%. The biologically relevant climate data produced by ClimateAP is validated based on evaluations using observations from weather stations. The use of ClimateAP leads to an improvement in data quality, especially in non-mountainous regions. The results also suggest that using biologically relevant variables generated by ClimateAP can slightly enhance climatic niche modeling for tree species, offering a better understanding of tree species adaptation and resilience compared to using gridded data.

Keywords: climate data validation, data quality, Asia pacific climate, climatic niche modeling, random forest models, tree species

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Authors: Rituparna Nath, Shawn J. Marshall

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Glaciers are one of the main sensitive climatic indicators, as they respond strongly to small climatic shifts. We develop a flow line model of glacier dynamics to simulate the past and future extent of glaciers in the Canadian Rocky Mountains, with the aim of coupling this model within larger scale regional climate models of glacier response to climate change. This paper will focus on glacier-climate modeling and reconstructions of glacier volume from the Little Ice Age (LIA) to present for Athabasca Glacier, Alberta, Canada. Glacier thickness, volume and mass change will be constructed using flow line modelling and examination of different climate scenarios that are able to give good reconstructions of LIA ice extent. With the availability of SPOT 5 imagery, Digital elevation models and GIS Arc Hydro tool, ice catchment properties-glacier width and LIA moraines have been extracted using automated procedures. Simulation of glacier mass change will inform estimates of meltwater run off over the historical period and model calibration from the LIA reconstruction will aid in future projections of the effects of climate change on glacier recession. Furthermore, the model developed will be effective for further future studies with ensembles of glaciers.

Keywords: flow line modeling, Athabasca Glacier, glacier mass balance, Remote Sensing, Arc hydro tool, little ice age

Procedia PDF Downloads 267

Authors: Marcela Karmazínová, Michal Štrba, Miln Pilgr

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The paper deals with the problems of the actual behavior, failure mechanism and load-carrying capacity of the special bolt connection developed and intended for the assembly connections of truss main girders of perspective railway temporary steel bridges. Within the framework of this problem solution, several types of structural details of assembly joints have been considered as the conceptual structural design. Based on the preliminary evaluation of advantages or disadvantages of these ones, in principle two basic structural configurations so-called “tooth” and “splice-plate” connections have been selected for the subsequent detailed investigation. This investigation is mainly based on the experimental verification of the actual behavior, strain and failure mechanism and corresponding strength of the connection, and on its numerical modeling using FEM. This paper is focused only on the cyclic loading (fatigue) tests results of “splice-plate” connections and their evaluation, which have already been finished. Simultaneously with the fatigue tests, the static loading tests have been realized too, but these ones, as well as FEM numerical modeling, are not the subject of this paper.

Keywords: Bolt assembly connection, cyclic loading, failure mechanisms, fatigue strength, steel structure, structural detail category, temporary railway bridge

Procedia PDF Downloads 443

Authors: Haileyesus Tessema Alemneh, Abiyu Enyew Molla, Oluwole Daniel Makinde

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Introduction: Faba bean is one of the most important grown plants worldwide for humans and animals. Several biotic and abiotic elements have limited the output of faba beans, irrespective of their diverse significance. Many faba bean pathogens have been reported so far, of which the most important yield-limiting disease is chocolate spot disease (Botrytis fabae). The dynamics of disease transmission and decision-making processes for intervention programs for disease control are now better understood through the use of mathematical modeling. Currently, a lot of mathematical modeling researchers are interested in plant disease modeling. Objective: In this paper, a deterministic mathematical model for chocolate spot disease (CSD) on faba bean plant with an optimal control model was developed and analyzed to examine the best strategy for controlling CSD. Methodology: Three control interventions, quarantine (u2), chemical control (u3), and prevention (u1), are employed that would establish the optimal control model. The optimality system, characterization of controls, the adjoint variables, and the Hamiltonian are all generated employing Pontryagin’s maximum principle. A cost-effective approach is chosen from a set of possible integrated strategies using the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). The forward-backward sweep iterative approach is used to run numerical simulations. Results: The Hamiltonian, the optimality system, the characterization of the controls, and the adjoint variables were established. The numerical results demonstrate that each integrated strategy can reduce the diseases within the specified period. However, due to limited resources, an integrated strategy of prevention and uprooting was found to be the best cost-effective strategy to combat CSD. Conclusion: Therefore, attention should be given to the integrated cost-effective and environmentally eco-friendly strategy by stakeholders and policymakers to control CSD and disseminate the integrated intervention to the farmers in order to fight the spread of CSD in the Faba bean population and produce the expected yield from the field.

Keywords: CSD, optimal control theory, Pontryagin’s maximum principle, numerical simulation, cost-effectiveness analysis

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Authors: Sina Kazemi, Farshid Torabi, Todd Peterson

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Drilling in shale formations is frequently time-consuming, challenging, and fraught with mechanical failures such as stuck pipes or hole packing off when the cutting removal rate is not sufficient to clean the bottom hole. Crossing the heavy oil shale and sand reservoirs with active shale and microfractures is generally associated with severe fluid losses causing a reduction in the rate of the cuttings removal. These circumstances compromise a well’s integrity and result in a lower rate of penetration (ROP). This study presents collective results of field studies and theoretical analysis conducted on data from South Pars and North Dome in an Iran-Qatar offshore field. Solutions to complications related to drilling in shale formations are proposed through systemically analyzing and applying modeling techniques to select field mud logging data. Field data measurements during actual drilling operations indicate that in a shale formation where the return flow of polymer mud was almost lost in the upper dolomite layer, the performance of hole cleaning and ROP progressively change when higher string rotations are initiated. Likewise, it was observed that this effect minimized the force of rotational torque and improved well integrity in the subsequent casing running. Given similar geologic conditions and drilling operations in reservoirs targeting shale as the producing zone like the Bakken formation within the Williston Basin and Lloydminster, Saskatchewan, a drill bench dynamic modeling simulation was used to simulate borehole cleaning efficiency and mud optimization. The results obtained by altering RPM (string revolution per minute) at the same pump rate and optimized mud properties exhibit a positive correlation with field measurements. The field investigation and developed model in this report show that increasing the speed of string revolution as far as geomechanics and drilling bit conditions permit can minimize the risk of mechanically stuck pipes while reaching a higher than expected ROP in shale formations. Data obtained from modeling and field data analysis, optimized drilling parameters, and hole cleaning procedures are suggested for minimizing the risk of a hole packing off and enhancing well integrity in shale reservoirs. Whereas optimization of ROP at a lower pump rate maintains the wellbore stability, it saves time for the operator while reducing carbon emissions and fatigue of mud motors and power supply engines.

Keywords: ROP, circulating density, drilling parameters, return flow, shale reservoir, well integrity

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Authors: Nicolae Daniel Stoica, Ion Mierlus Mazilu

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This work is one of numerical research and aims to address the issue of the design of new buildings in a 3D location of existing buildings. In today's continuous development and congestion of urban centers is a big question about the influence of the new buildings on an already existent vicinity site. Thus, in this study, we tried to focus on how existent buildings may be affected by any newly constructed buildings and in how far this influence is really decreased. The problem of modeling the influence of interaction between buildings is not simple in any area in the world, and neither in Romania. Unfortunately, most often the designers not done calculations that can determine how close to reality these 3D influences nor the simplified method and the more superior methods. In the most literature making a "shield" (the pilots or molded walls) is absolutely sufficient to stop the influence between the buildings, and so often the soil under the structure is ignored in the calculation models. The main causes for which the soil is neglected in the analysis are related to the complexity modeling of interaction between soil and structure. In this paper, based on a new simple but efficient methodology we tried to determine for a lot of study cases the influence, in terms of assessing the interaction land structure on the behavior of structures that influence a new building on an existing one. The study covers additional subsidence that may occur during the execution of new works and after its completion. It also highlighted the efforts diagrams and deflections in the soil for both the original case and the final stage. This is necessary to see to what extent the expected impact of the new building on existing areas.

Keywords: soil, structure, interaction, piles, earthquakes

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Authors: Fredrick Ishengoma, Leonard Mselle, Hector Mongi

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The growing number of mobile phone subscribers in Tanzania offers the government a new channel for the delivery of information and government services to citizens, thus mobile Government (m-Government). In Tanzania, m-Government services usage is in the early stages, and factors that influence its adoption are yet to be known. This study seeks to identify and understand the critical success factors (CSFs) that influence citizens’ behavioural intention (BI) to adopt m-Government services in Tanzania. The study employed the mobile services acceptance model (MSAM) and extends it with external factors relevant in the Tanzanian context. A survey questionnaire was used to collect primary data from users of m-Government services in Dar es salaam and Dodoma cities, and 253 responses were received. Data were analyzed by IBM-SPSS AMOS 23.0 software using structural equation modeling (SEM). The findings of the study indicate that perceived usefulness, trust, perceived mobility, power distance, quality of service, awareness, perceived cost, personal initiatives, and characteristics significantly influence the BI to adopt m-Government services. However, perceived ease of use was found statistically insignificant to predict BI. Furthermore, the interplay between CSFs, discussion on theoretical and practical implications that follow from the results are presented.

Keywords: adoption, critical success factors, structural equation modeling, m-Government, MSAM, Tanzania

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Authors: M. Bevilacqua, F. E. Ciarapica, G. Marcucci

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Supply Chain Resilience has been broadly studied during the last decade, focusing the research on many aspects of Supply Chain performance. Consequently, different definitions of Supply Chain Resilience have been developed by the research community, drawing inspiration also from other fields of study such as ecology, sociology, psychology, economy et al. This way, the definitions so far developed in the extant literature are therefore very heterogeneous, and many authors have pointed out a lack of consensus in this field of analysis. The aim of this research is to find common points between these definitions, through the development of a framework of study: the Resilience Triangle. The Resilience Triangle is a tool developed in the field of civil engineering, with the objective of modeling the loss of resilience of a given structure during and after the occurrence of a disruption such as an earthquake. The Resilience Triangle is a simple yet powerful tool: in our opinion, it can summarize all the features that authors have captured in the Supply Chain Resilience definitions over the years. This research intends to recapitulate within this framework all these heterogeneities in Supply Chain Resilience research. After collecting a various number of Supply Chain Resilience definitions present in the extant literature, the methodology approach provides a taxonomy step with the scope of collecting and analyzing all the data gathered. The next step provides the comparison of the data obtained with the plotting of a disruption profile, in order to contextualize the Resilience Triangle in the Supply Chain context. The tool and the results developed in this research will allow to lay the foundation for future Supply Chain Resilience modeling and measurement work.

Keywords: supply chain resilience, resilience definition, supply chain resilience triangle

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Authors: P. Kazymbet, G. Abildinova, K.Makhambetov, M. Bakhtin, D. Rybalkina, K. Zhumadilov

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Conducted cytogenetic research in workers Stepnogorsk Mining-Chemical Combine (Akmola region) with the study of 26341 chromosomal metaphase. Using a regression analysis with program DataFit, version 5.0, dependence between exposure dose and the following cytogenetic exponents has been studied: frequency of aberrant cells, frequency of chromosomal aberrations, frequency of the amounts of dicentric chromosomes, and centric rings. Experimental data on calibration curves "dose-effect" enabled the development of a mathematical model, allowing on data of the frequency of aberrant cells, chromosome aberrations, the amounts of dicentric chromosomes and centric rings calculate the absorbed dose at the time of the study. In the dose range of 0.1 Gy to 5.0 Gy dependence cytogenetic parameters on the dose had the following equation: Y = 0,0067е^0,3307х (R2 = 0,8206) – for frequency of chromosomal aberrations; Y = 0,0057е^0,3161х (R2 = 0,8832) –for frequency of cells with chromosomal aberrations; Y =5 Е-0,5е^0,6383 (R2 = 0,6321) – or frequency of the amounts of dicentric chromosomes and centric rings on cells. On the basis of cytogenetic parameters and regression equations calculated absorbed dose in workers of uranium production at the time of the study did not exceed 0.3 Gy.

Keywords: Stepnogorsk, mathematical modeling, cytogenetic, dicentric chromosomes

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Authors: J. Skibinski, P. Caban, T. Wejrzanowski, K. J. Kurzydlowski

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In the present study, numerical simulations of heat and mass transfer during gallium nitride growth process in Metal Organic Vapor Phase Epitaxy reactor AIX-200/4RF-S is addressed. Existing knowledge about phenomena occurring in the MOVPE process allows to produce high quality nitride based semiconductors. However, process parameters of MOVPE reactors can vary in certain ranges. Main goal of this study is optimization of the process and improvement of the quality of obtained crystal. In order to investigate this subject a series of computer simulations have been performed. Numerical simulations of heat and mass transfer in GaN epitaxial growth process have been performed to determine growth rate for various mass flow rates and pressures of reagents. According to the fact that it’s impossible to determine experimentally the exact distribution of heat and mass transfer inside the reactor during the process, modeling is the only solution to understand the process precisely. Main heat transfer mechanisms during MOVPE process are convection and radiation. Correlation of modeling results with the experiment allows to determine optimal process parameters for obtaining crystals of highest quality.

Keywords: Finite Volume Method, semiconductors, epitaxial growth, metalorganic vapor phase epitaxy, gallium nitride

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Authors: Anjian Chen, Joseph C. Chen

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This paper studies a case where the targeted surface roughness of fused deposition modeling (FDM) additive manufacturing process is improved. The process is designing to reduce or eliminate the defects and improve the process capability index Cp and Cpk for an FDM additive manufacturing process. The baseline Cp is 0.274 and Cpk is 0.654. This research utilizes the Taguchi methodology, to eliminate defects and improve the process. The Taguchi method is used to optimize the additive manufacturing process and printing parameters that affect the targeted surface roughness of FDM additive manufacturing. The Taguchi L9 orthogonal array is used to organize the parameters' (four controllable parameters and one non-controllable parameter) effectiveness on the FDM additive manufacturing process. The four controllable parameters are nozzle temperature [°C], layer thickness [mm], nozzle speed [mm/s], and extruder speed [%]. The non-controllable parameter is the environmental temperature [°C]. After the optimization of the parameters, a confirmation print was printed to prove that the results can reduce the amount of defects and improve the process capability index Cp from 0.274 to 1.605 and the Cpk from 0.654 to 1.233 for the FDM additive manufacturing process. The final results confirmed that the Taguchi methodology is sufficient to improve the surface roughness of FDM additive manufacturing process.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, fused deposition modeling, surface roughness, six-sigma, Taguchi method, 3D printing

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Authors: Ng Liang Shen, Ngahzaifa Abdul Ghani

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This research aimed at developing an early warning system for pre-diabetic and diabetics by analyzing simple and easily determinable signs and symptoms of diabetes among the people living in Malaysia using Particle Swarm Optimized Artificial. With the skyrocketing prevalence of Type 2 diabetes in Malaysia, the system can be used to encourage affected people to seek further medical attention to prevent the onset of diabetes or start managing it early enough to avoid the associated complications. The study sought to find out the best predictive variables of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus, developed a system to diagnose diabetes from the variables using Artificial Neural Networks and tested the system on accuracy to find out the patent generated from diabetes diagnosis result in machine learning algorithms even at primary or advanced stages.

Keywords: diabetes diagnosis, Artificial Neural Networks, artificial intelligence, soft computing, medical diagnosis

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

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This talk presents a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. We establish that the joint posterior distribution of the model parameters and future values is well defined. The associated MCMC algorithm for parameter estimation and forecasting converges to the posterior distribution quickly. We also present a combining forecasts technique to produce more accurate out-of-sample forecasts by using a weighted sequence of fitted QAR models. A moving window method to check the quality of the estimated conditional quantiles is developed. We verify our methodology using simulation studies and then apply it to currency exchange rate data. An application of the method to the USD to GBP daily currency exchange rates will also be discussed. The results obtained show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology.

Keywords: combining forecasts, MCMC, quantile modelling, quantile forecasting, predictive density functions

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Authors: Sanja Podunavac-Kuzmanović, Denis Kučević, Strahinja Kovačević, Milica Karadžić, Lidija Jevrić

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The present study describes the application of chemometric methods in analysis of milk samples which were collected in a conventional dairy farm and an organic dairy farm in AP Vojvodina, Republic of Serbia. The chemometric analysis included the application of univariate regression modeling and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) method. The ANOVA was used in order to determine the differences in fatty acids content in the milk samples from conventional and organic farm. The results of the ANOVA testing indicate that there is a highly statistically significant difference between the content of fatty acid (saturated fatty acid vs. unsaturated fatty acids) in different dairy farming. Besides, the linear univariate models have been obtained as a result of modeling the linear relationships between the milk fat content and saturated fatty acids content, and the linear relationships between the milk fat content and unsaturated fatty acids content. The models obtained on the basis of the milk samples which originate from the organic farming are statistically better than the models based on the milk samples from conventional farming.

Keywords: hemometrics, milk, organic farming, quality control

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Authors: Ioannis Andrianakis, Vasileios Gkatas, Nikos Eleftheriadis, Alexios Ellinidis, Ermioni Avramidou

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The paper discusses the main aspects involved in the development of a supply chain management system using the newly developed PredictionSCMS software as a basis for the discussion. The discussion is focused on three topics: the first is demand forecasting, where we present the predictive algorithms implemented and discuss related concepts such as the calculation of the safety stock, the effect of out-of-stock days etc. The second topic concerns the design of a supply chain, where the core parameters involved in the process are given, together with a methodology of incorporating these parameters in a meaningful order creation strategy. Finally, the paper discusses some critical events that can happen during the operation of a supply chain management system and how the developed software notifies the end user about their occurrence.

Keywords: demand forecasting, machine learning, risk management, supply chain design

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Authors: Nieto Bernal Wilson, Carmona Suarez Edgar

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The organizations have structured and unstructured information in different formats, sources, and systems. Part of these come from ERP under OLTP processing that support the information system, however these organizations in OLAP processing level, presented some deficiencies, part of this problematic lies in that does not exist interesting into extract knowledge from their data sources, as also the absence of operational capabilities to tackle with these kind of projects.  Data Warehouse and its applications are considered as non-proprietary tools, which are of great interest to business intelligence, since they are repositories basis for creating models or patterns (behavior of customers, suppliers, products, social networks and genomics) and facilitate corporate decision making and research. The following paper present a structured methodology, simple, inspired from the agile development models as Scrum, XP and AUP. Also the models object relational, spatial data models, and the base line of data modeling under UML and Big data, from this way sought to deliver an agile methodology for the developing of data warehouses, simple and of easy application. The methodology naturally take into account the application of process for the respectively information analysis, visualization and data mining, particularly for patterns generation and derived models from the objects facts structured.

Keywords: data warehouse, model data, big data, object fact, object relational fact, process developed data warehouse

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Authors: Sai Hung Cheung, Zhe Shao

Abstract:

Recent earthquake-induced tsunamis in Padang, 2004 and Tohoku, 2011 brought huge losses of lives and properties. Maintaining vertical evacuation systems is the most crucial strategy to effectively reduce casualty during the tsunami event. Thus, it is of our great interest to quantify the risk to structural dynamic systems due to earthquake-induced tsunamis. Despite continuous advancement in computational simulation of the tsunami and wave-structure interaction modeling, it still remains computationally challenging to evaluate the reliability (or its complement failure probability) of a structural dynamic system when uncertainties related to the system and its modeling are taken into account. The failure of the structure in a tsunami-wave-structural system is defined as any response quantities of the system exceeding specified thresholds during the time when the structure is subjected to dynamic wave impact due to earthquake-induced tsunamis. In this paper, an approach based on a novel integration of the Subset Simulation algorithm and a recently proposed moving least squares response surface approach for stochastic sampling is proposed. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is discussed by comparing its results with those obtained from the Subset Simulation algorithm without using the response surface approach.

Keywords: response surface model, subset simulation, structural reliability, Tsunami risk

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Authors: James Moir

Abstract:

The mainstay of Big Data is prediction in that it allows practitioners, researchers, and policy analysts to predict trends based upon the analysis of large and varied sources of data. These can range from changing social and political opinions, patterns in crimes, and consumer behaviour. Big Data has therefore shifted the criterion of success in science from causal explanations to predictive modelling and simulation. The 19th-century science sought to capture phenomena and seek to show the appearance of it through causal mechanisms while 20th-century science attempted to save the appearance and relinquish causal explanations. Now 21st-century science in the form of Big Data is concerned with the prediction of appearances and nothing more. However, this pulls social science back in the direction of a more rule- or law-governed reality model of science and away from a consideration of the internal nature of rules in relation to various practices. In effect Big Data offers us no more than a world of surface appearance and in doing so it makes disappear any context-specific conceptual sensitivity.

Keywords: big data, appearance, disappearance, surface, epistemology

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Authors: M. Pellerone, S. G. Razza, L. Miano, A. Miccichè, M. Adamo

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The teacher’s attitude plays a decisive role in promoting the development of the non-native or disabled student and counteracting hypothetical negative attitudes and prejudice towards those who are “different”.The objective of the present research is to measure the relationship between teachers’ prejudices towards disabled and/or immigrant students as predictors of teaching-learning strategies. A cross-sectional study involved 200 Italian female teachers who completed an anamnestic questionnaire, the Assessment Teaching Scale, the Italian Modern and Classical Prejudices Scale towards people with ID, and the Pettigrew and Meertens’ Blatant Subtle Prejudice Scale. Confirming research hypotheses, data underlines the predictive role of prejudice on teaching strategies, and in particular on the socio-emotional and communicative-relational dimensions. Results underline that general training appears necessary, especially for younger generations of teachers.

Keywords: disabled students, immigrant students, instructional competence, prejudice, teachers

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Authors: Siddharth Sarma, Ayush Majumdar, Nidhi Sabu, Mufaddal Jiruwaala, Shilpa Paygude

Abstract:

Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) are digital representations of the Earth’s topography, which include information about the elevation, slope, aspect, and other terrain attributes. DEMs play a crucial role in various applications, including terrain analysis, urban planning, and environmental modeling. In this paper, TerraEnhance is proposed, a distinct approach for high-resolution DEM generation using Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) combined with Real-ESRGANs. By learning from a dataset of low-resolution DEMs, the GANs are trained to upscale the data by 10 times, resulting in significantly enhanced DEMs with improved resolution and finer details. The integration of Real-ESRGANs further enhances visual quality, leading to more accurate representations of the terrain. A post-processing layer is introduced, employing high-pass filtering to refine the generated DEMs, preserving important details while reducing noise and artifacts. The results demonstrate that TerraEnhance outperforms existing methods, producing high-fidelity DEMs with intricate terrain features and exceptional accuracy. These advancements make TerraEnhance suitable for various applications, such as terrain analysis and precise environmental modeling.

Keywords: DEM, ESRGAN, image upscaling, super resolution, computer vision

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Authors: Mehdi Montakhabrazlighi, Ercan Balikci

Abstract:

The neural network (NN) method is applied to alloy development of single crystal Ni-base Superalloys with low density and improved mechanical strength. A set of 1200 dataset which includes chemical composition of the alloys, applied stress and temperature as inputs and density and time to rupture as outputs is used for training and testing the network. Thermodynamic phase diagram modeling of the screened alloys is performed with Thermocalc software to model the equilibrium phases and also microsegregation in solidification processing. The model is first trained by 80% of the data and the 20% rest is used to test it. Comparing the predicted values and the experimental ones showed that a well-trained network is capable of accurately predicting the density and time to rupture strength of the Ni-base superalloys. Modeling results is used to determine the effect of alloying elements, stress, temperature and gamma-prime phase volume fraction on rupture strength of the Ni-base superalloys. This approach is in line with the materials genome initiative and integrated computed materials engineering approaches promoted recently with the aim of reducing the cost and time for development of new alloys for critical aerospace components. This work has been funded by TUBITAK under grant number 112M783.

Keywords: neural network, rupture strength, superalloy, thermocalc

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