Search results for: composite forecasting
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2556

Search results for: composite forecasting

1236 Gas Flaring Utilization at KK Station

Authors: Abd Alati Ali Abushnaq, Malek Essnni, Abduraouf Eteer

Abstract:

The present study proposes a comprehensive approach to effectively utilize associated gas from the KK remote station, eliminating the practice of flaring and mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The proposed integrated system involves diverting the associated gas via a newly designed pipeline, seamlessly connecting to the existing 12-inch pipeline at the tie-in point. The proposed destination is the low-pressure system at A-100 or 3rd stage, where the associated gas will be channeled towards the NGL (natural gas liquid) plant for processing. To ensure the system's efficacy under varying gas production scenarios, the study employs two industry-standard simulation software packages, Aspen HYSYS and PIPSIM. The simulated results demonstrate the system's ability to handle the projected increase in gas production, reaching up to 38 MMSCFD. This comprehensive analysis ensures the system's robustness and adaptability to future production demands.

Keywords: associated gas, flaring mitigation, GHG emissions, pipeline diversion, NGL plant, KK remote station, production forecasting, Aspen HYSYS, PIPSIM

Procedia PDF Downloads 88
1235 Elastomeric Nanocomposites for Space Applications

Authors: Adriana Stefan, Cristina-Elisabeta Pelin, George Pelin, Maria Daniela Stelescu, Elena Manaila

Abstract:

Elastomeric composites have been known for a long time, but, to our knowledge, space and the aeronautic community has been directing a special attention to them only in the last decade. The required properties of advanced elastomeric materials used in space applications (such as O-rings) are sealing, abrasion, low-temperature flexibility, the long-term compression set properties, impact resistance and low-temperature thermal stability in different environments, such as ionized radiations. Basically, the elastomeric nanocomposites are composed of a rubber matrix and a wide and varied range of nanofillers, added with the aim of improving the physico-mechanical and elasticity modulus properties of the materials as well as their stability in different environments. The paper presents a partial synthesis of the research regarding the use of silicon carbide in nanometric form and/or organophylized montmorillonite as fillers in butyl rubber matrix. The need of composite materials arose from the fact that stand-alone polymers are ineffective in providing all the superior properties required by different applications. These drawbacks can be diminished or even eliminated by incorporating a new range of additives into the organic matrix, fillers that have important roles in modifying properties of various polymers. A composite material can provide superior and unique mechanical and physical properties because it combines the most desirable properties of its constituents while suppressing their least desirable properties. The commercial importance of polymers and the continuous increase of their use results in the continuous demand for improvement in their properties to meet the necessary conditions. To study the performance of the elastomeric nanocomposites were mechanically tested, it will be tested the qualities of tensile at low temperatures and RT and the behavior at the compression at cryogenic to room temperatures and under different environments. The morphology of specimens will be investigated by optical and scanning electronic microscopy.

Keywords: elastomeric nanocomposites, O-rings, space applications, mechanical properties

Procedia PDF Downloads 288
1234 Enhanced Photocatalytic H₂ Production from H₂S on Metal Modified Cds-Zns Semiconductors

Authors: Maali-Amel Mersel, Lajos Fodor, Otto Horvath

Abstract:

Photocatalytic H₂ production by H₂S decomposition is regarded to be an environmentally friendly process to produce carbon-free energy through direct solar energy conversion. For this purpose, sulphide-based materials, as photocatalysts, were widely used due to their excellent solar spectrum responses and high photocatalytic activity. The loading of proper co-catalysts that are based on cheap and earth-abundant materials on those semiconductors was shown to play an important role in the improvement of their efficiency. In this research, CdS-ZnS composite was studied because of its controllable band gap and excellent performance for H₂ evolution under visible light irradiation. The effects of the modification of this photocatalyst with different types of materials and the influence of the preparation parameters on its H₂ production activity were investigated. The CdS-ZnS composite with an enhanced photocatalytic activity for H₂ production was synthesized from ammine complexes. Two types of modification were used: compounds of Ni-group metals (NiS, PdS, and Pt) were applied as co-catalyst on the surface of CdS-ZnS semiconductor, while NiS, MnS, CoS, Ag₂S, and CuS were used as a dopant in the bulk of the catalyst. It was found that 0.1% of noble metals didn’t remarkably influence the photocatalytic activity, while the modification with 0.5% of NiS was shown to be more efficient in the bulk than on the surface. The modification with other types of metals results in a decrease of the rate of H₂ production, while the co-doping seems to be more promising. The preparation parameters (such as the amount of ammonia to form the ammine complexes, the order of the preparation steps together with the hydrothermal treatment) were also found to highly influence the rate of H₂ production. SEM, EDS and DRS analyses were made to reveal the structure of the most efficient photocatalysts. Moreover, the detection of the conduction band electron on the surface of the catalyst was also investigated. The excellent photoactivity of the CdS-ZnS catalysts with and without modification encourages further investigations to enhance the hydrogen generation by optimization of the reaction conditions.

Keywords: H₂S, photoactivity, photocatalytic H₂ production, CdS-ZnS

Procedia PDF Downloads 131
1233 Analysis of Rural Roads in Developing Countries Using Principal Component Analysis and Simple Average Technique in the Development of a Road Safety Performance Index

Authors: Muhammad Tufail, Jawad Hussain, Hammad Hussain, Imran Hafeez, Naveed Ahmad

Abstract:

Road safety performance index is a composite index which combines various indicators of road safety into single number. Development of a road safety performance index using appropriate safety performance indicators is essential to enhance road safety. However, a road safety performance index in developing countries has not been given as much priority as needed. The primary objective of this research is to develop a general Road Safety Performance Index (RSPI) for developing countries based on the facility as well as behavior of road user. The secondary objectives include finding the critical inputs in the RSPI and finding the better method of making the index. In this study, the RSPI is developed by selecting four main safety performance indicators i.e., protective system (seat belt, helmet etc.), road (road width, signalized intersections, number of lanes, speed limit), number of pedestrians, and number of vehicles. Data on these four safety performance indicators were collected using observation survey on a 20 km road section of the National Highway N-125 road Taxila, Pakistan. For the development of this composite index, two methods are used: a) Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and b) Equal Weighting (EW) method. PCA is used for extraction, weighting, and linear aggregation of indicators to obtain a single value. An individual index score was calculated for each road section by multiplication of weights and standardized values of each safety performance indicator. However, Simple Average technique was used for weighting and linear aggregation of indicators to develop a RSPI. The road sections are ranked according to RSPI scores using both methods. The two weighting methods are compared, and the PCA method is found to be much more reliable than the Simple Average Technique.

Keywords: indicators, aggregation, principle component analysis, weighting, index score

Procedia PDF Downloads 158
1232 Modified Graphene Oxide in Ceramic Composite

Authors: Natia Jalagonia, Jimsher Maisuradze, Karlo Barbakadze, Tinatin Kuchukhidze

Abstract:

At present intensive scientific researches of ceramics, cermets and metal alloys have been conducted for improving materials physical-mechanical characteristics. In purpose of increasing impact strength of ceramics based on alumina, simple method of graphene homogenization was developed. Homogeneous distribution of graphene (homogenization) in pressing composite became possible through the connection of functional groups of graphene oxide (-OH, -COOH, -O-O- and others) and alumina superficial OH groups with aluminum organic compounds. These two components connect with each other with -O-Al–O- bonds, and by their thermal treatment (300–500°C), graphene and alumina phase are transformed. Thus, choosing of aluminum organic compounds for modification is stipulated by the following opinion: aluminum organic compounds fragments fixed on graphene and alumina finally are transformed into an integral part of the matrix. By using of other elements as modifier on the matrix surface (Al2O3) other phases are transformed, which change sharply physical-mechanical properties of ceramic composites, for this reason, effect caused by the inclusion of graphene will be unknown. Fixing graphene fragments on alumina surface by alumoorganic compounds result in new type graphene-alumina complex, in which these two components are connected by C-O-Al bonds. Part of carbon atoms in graphene oxide are in sp3 hybrid state, so functional groups (-OH, -COOH) are located on both sides of graphene oxide layer. Aluminum organic compound reacts with graphene oxide at the room temperature, and modified graphene oxide is obtained: R2Al-O-[graphene]–COOAlR2. Remaining Al–C bonds also reacts rapidly with surface OH groups of alumina. In a result of these process, pressing powdery composite [Al2O3]-O-Al-O-[graphene]–COO–Al–O–[Al2O3] is obtained. For the purpose, graphene oxide suspension in dry toluene have added alumoorganic compound Al(iC4H9)3 in toluene with equimolecular ratio. Obtained suspension has put in the flask and removed solution in a rotary evaporate presence nitrogen atmosphere. Obtained powdery have been researched and used to consolidation of ceramic materials based on alumina. Ceramic composites are obtained in high temperature vacuum furnace with different temperature and pressure conditions. Received ceramics do not have open pores and their density reaches 99.5 % of TD. During the work, the following devices have been used: High temperature vacuum furnace OXY-GON Industries Inc (USA), device of spark-plasma synthesis, induction furnace, Electronic Scanning Microscopes Nikon Eclipse LV 150, Optical Microscope NMM-800TRF, Planetary mill Pulverisette 7 premium line, Shimadzu Dynamic Ultra Micro Hardness Tester DUH-211S, Analysette 12 Dynasizer and others.

Keywords: graphene oxide, alumo-organic, ceramic

Procedia PDF Downloads 308
1231 Adhesive Bonded Joints Characterization and Crack Propagation in Composite Materials under Cyclic Impact Fatigue and Constant Amplitude Fatigue Loadings

Authors: Andres Bautista, Alicia Porras, Juan P. Casas, Maribel Silva

Abstract:

The Colombian aeronautical industry has stimulated research in the mechanical behavior of materials under different loading conditions aircrafts are generally exposed during its operation. The Calima T-90 is the first military aircraft built in the country, used for primary flight training of Colombian Air Force Pilots, therefore, it may be exposed to adverse operating situations such as hard landings which cause impact loads on the aircraft that might produce the impact fatigue phenomenon. The Calima T-90 structure is mainly manufactured by composites materials generating assemblies and subassemblies of different components of it. The main method of bonding these components is by using adhesive joints. Each type of adhesive bond must be studied on its own since its performance depends on the conditions of the manufacturing process and operating characteristics. This study aims to characterize the typical adhesive joints of the aircraft under usual loads. To this purpose, the evaluation of the effect of adhesive thickness on the mechanical performance of the joint under quasi-static loading conditions, constant amplitude fatigue and cyclic impact fatigue using single lap-joint specimens will be performed. Additionally, using a double cantilever beam specimen, the influence of the thickness of the adhesive on the crack growth rate for mode I delamination failure, as a function of the critical energy release rate will be determined. Finally, an analysis of the fracture surface of the test specimens considering the mechanical interaction between the substrate (composite) and the adhesive, provide insights into the magnitude of the damage, the type of failure mechanism that occurs and its correlation with the way crack propagates under the proposed loading conditions.

Keywords: adhesive, composites, crack propagation, fatigue

Procedia PDF Downloads 204
1230 Forecasting Direct Normal Irradiation at Djibouti Using Artificial Neural Network

Authors: Ahmed Kayad Abdourazak, Abderafi Souad, Zejli Driss, Idriss Abdoulkader Ibrahim

Abstract:

In this paper Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is used to predict the solar irradiation in Djibouti for the first Time that is useful to the integration of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) and sites selections for new or future solar plants as part of solar energy development. An ANN algorithm was developed to establish a forward/reverse correspondence between the latitude, longitude, altitude and monthly solar irradiation. For this purpose the German Aerospace Centre (DLR) data of eight Djibouti sites were used as training and testing in a standard three layers network with the back propagation algorithm of Lavenber-Marquardt. Results have shown a very good agreement for the solar irradiation prediction in Djibouti and proves that the proposed approach can be well used as an efficient tool for prediction of solar irradiation by providing so helpful information concerning sites selection, design and planning of solar plants.

Keywords: artificial neural network, solar irradiation, concentrated solar power, Lavenberg-Marquardt

Procedia PDF Downloads 354
1229 An ANN-Based Predictive Model for Diagnosis and Forecasting of Hypertension

Authors: Obe Olumide Olayinka, Victor Balanica, Eugen Neagoe

Abstract:

The effects of hypertension are often lethal thus its early detection and prevention is very important for everybody. In this paper, a neural network (NN) model was developed and trained based on a dataset of hypertension causative parameters in order to forecast the likelihood of occurrence of hypertension in patients. Our research goal was to analyze the potential of the presented NN to predict, for a period of time, the risk of hypertension or the risk of developing this disease for patients that are or not currently hypertensive. The results of the analysis for a given patient can support doctors in taking pro-active measures for averting the occurrence of hypertension such as recommendations regarding the patient behavior in order to lower his hypertension risk. Moreover, the paper envisages a set of three example scenarios in order to determine the age when the patient becomes hypertensive, i.e. determine the threshold for hypertensive age, to analyze what happens if the threshold hypertensive age is set to a certain age and the weight of the patient if being varied, and, to set the ideal weight for the patient and analyze what happens with the threshold of hypertensive age.

Keywords: neural network, hypertension, data set, training set, supervised learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 391
1228 A Deep Learning Based Integrated Model For Spatial Flood Prediction

Authors: Vinayaka Gude Divya Sampath

Abstract:

The research introduces an integrated prediction model to assess the susceptibility of roads in a future flooding event. The model consists of deep learning algorithm for forecasting gauge height data and Flood Inundation Mapper (FIM) for spatial flooding. An optimal architecture for Long short-term memory network (LSTM) was identified for the gauge located on Tangipahoa River at Robert, LA. Dropout was applied to the model to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the predictions. The estimates are then used along with FIM to identify the spatial flooding. Further geoprocessing in ArcGIS provides the susceptibility values for different roads. The model was validated based on the devastating flood of August 2016. The paper discusses the challenges for generalization the methodology for other locations and also for various types of flooding. The developed model can be used by the transportation department and other emergency response organizations for effective disaster management.

Keywords: deep learning, disaster management, flood prediction, urban flooding

Procedia PDF Downloads 146
1227 The Impact of Shifting Trading Pattern from Long-Haul to Short-Sea to the Car Carriers’ Freight Revenues

Authors: Tianyu Wang, Nikita Karandikar

Abstract:

The uncertainty around cost, safety, and feasibility of the decarbonized shipping fuels has made it increasingly complex for the shipping companies to set pricing strategies and forecast their freight revenues going forward. The increase in the green fuel surcharges will ultimately influence the automobile’s consumer prices. The auto shipping demand (ton-miles) has been gradually shifting from long-haul to short-sea trade over the past years following the relocation of the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) manufacturing to regions such as South America and Southeast Asia. The objective of this paper is twofold: 1) to investigate the car-carriers freight revenue development over the years when the trade pattern is gradually shifting towards short-sea exports 2) to empirically identify the quantitative impact of such trade pattern shifting to mainly freight rate, but also vessel size, fleet size as well as Green House Gas (GHG) emission in Roll on-Roll Off (Ro-Ro) shipping. In this paper, a model of analyzing and forecasting ton-miles and freight revenues for the trade routes of AS-NA (Asia to North America), EU-NA (Europe to North America), and SA-NA (South America to North America) is established by deploying Automatic Identification System (AIS) data and the financial results of a selected car carrier company. More specifically, Wallenius Wilhelmsen Logistics (WALWIL), the Norwegian Ro-Ro carrier listed on Oslo Stock Exchange, is selected as the case study company in this paper. AIS-based ton-mile datasets of WALWIL vessels that are sailing into North America region from three different origins (Asia, Europe, and South America), together with WALWIL’s quarterly freight revenues as reported in trade segments, will be investigated and compared for the past five years (2018-2022). Furthermore, ordinary‐least‐square (OLS) regression is utilized to construct the ton-mile demand and freight revenue forecasting. The determinants of trade pattern shifting, such as import tariffs following the China-US trade war and fuel prices following the 0.1% Emission Control Areas (ECA) zone requirement after IMO2020 will be set as key variable inputs to the machine learning model. The model will be tested on another newly listed Norwegian Car Carrier, Hoegh Autoliner, to forecast its 2022 financial results and to validate the accuracy based on its actual results. GHG emissions on the three routes will be compared and discussed based on a constant emission per mile assumption and voyage distances. Our findings will provide important insights about 1) the trade-off evaluation between revenue reduction and energy saving with the new ton-mile pattern and 2) how the trade flow shifting would influence the future need for the vessel and fleet size.

Keywords: AIS, automobile exports, maritime big data, trade flows

Procedia PDF Downloads 121
1226 Building a Composite Approach to Employees' Motivational Needs by Combining Cognitive Needs

Authors: Alexis Akinyemi, Laurene Houtin

Abstract:

Measures of employee motivation at work are often based on the theory of self-determined motivation, which implies that human resources departments and managers seek to motivate employees in the most self-determined way possible and use strategies to achieve this goal. In practice, they often tend to assess employee motivation and then adapt management to the most important source of motivation for their employees, for example by financially rewarding an employee who is extrinsically motivated, and by rewarding an intrinsically motivated employee with congratulations and recognition. Thus, the use of motivation measures contradicts theoretical positioning: theory does not provide for the promotion of extrinsically motivated behaviour. In addition, a corpus of social psychology linked to fundamental needs makes it possible to personally address a person’s different sources of motivation (need for cognition, need for uniqueness, need for effects and need for closure). By developing a composite measure of motivation based on these needs, we provide human resources professionals, and in particular occupational psychologists, with a tool that complements the assessment of self-determined motivation, making it possible to precisely address the objective of adapting work not to the self-determination of behaviours, but to the motivational traits of employees. To develop such a model, we gathered the French versions of the cognitive needs scales (need for cognition, need for uniqueness, need for effects, need for closure) and conducted a study with 645 employees of several French companies. On the basis of the data collected, we conducted a confirmatory factor analysis to validate the model, studied the correlations between the various needs, and highlighted the different reference groups that could be used to use these needs as a basis for interviews with employees (career, recruitment, etc.). The results showed a coherent model and the expected links between the different needs. Taken together, these results make it possible to propose a valid and theoretically adjusted tool to managers who wish to adapt their management to their employees’ current motivations, whether or not these motivations are self-determined.

Keywords: motivation, personality, work commitment, cognitive needs

Procedia PDF Downloads 123
1225 Optimisation of Dyes Decolourisation by Bacillus aryabhattai

Authors: A. Paz, S. Cortés Diéguez, J. M. Cruz, A. B. Moldes, J. M. Domínguez

Abstract:

Synthetic dyes are extensively used in the paper, food, leather, cosmetics, pharmaceutical and textile industries. Wastewater resulting from their production means several environmental problems. Improper disposal of theirs effluents involves adverse impacts and not only about the colour, also on water quality (Total Organic Carbon, Biological Oxygen Demand, Chemical Oxygen Demand, suspended solids, salinity, etc.) on flora (inhibition of photosynthetic activity), fauna (toxic, carcinogenic, and mutagenic effects) and human health. The aim of this work is to optimize the decolourisation process of different types of dyes by Bacillus aryabhattai. Initially, different types of dyes (Indigo Carmine, Coomassie Brilliant Blue and Remazol Brilliant Blue R) and suitable culture media (Nutritive Broth, Luria Bertani Broth and Trypticasein Soy Broth) were selected. Then, a central composite design (CCD) was employed to optimise and analyse the significance of each abiotic parameter. Three process variables (temperature, salt concentration and agitation) were investigated in the CCD at 3 levels with 2-star points. A total of 23 experiments were carried out according to a full factorial design, consisting of 8 factorial experiments (coded to the usual ± 1 notation), 6 axial experiments (on the axis at a distance of ± α from the centre), and 9 replicates (at the centre of the experimental domain). Experiments results suggest the efficiency of this strain to remove the tested dyes on the 3 media studied, although Trypticasein Soy Broth (TSB) was the most suitable medium. Indigo Carmine and Coomassie Brilliant Blue at maximal tested concentration 150 mg/l were completely decolourised, meanwhile, an acceptable removal was observed using the more complicate dye Remazol Brilliant Blue R at a concentration of 50 mg/l.

Keywords: Bacillus aryabhattai, dyes, decolourisation, central composite design

Procedia PDF Downloads 219
1224 Optimal Tracking Control of a Hydroelectric Power Plant Incorporating Neural Forecasting for Uncertain Input Disturbances

Authors: Marlene Perez Villalpando, Kelly Joel Gurubel Tun

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose an optimal control strategy for a hydroelectric power plant subject to input disturbances like meteorological phenomena. The engineering characteristics of the system are described by a nonlinear model. The random availability of renewable sources is predicted by a high-order neural network trained with an extended Kalman filter, whereas the power generation is regulated by the optimal control law. The main advantage of the system is the stabilization of the amount of power generated in the plant. A control supervisor maintains stability and availability in hydropower reservoirs water levels for power generation. The proposed approach demonstrated a good performance to stabilize the reservoir level and the power generation along their desired trajectories in the presence of disturbances.

Keywords: hydropower, high order neural network, Kalman filter, optimal control

Procedia PDF Downloads 298
1223 Development of 3D Printed Natural Fiber Reinforced Composite Scaffolds for Maxillofacial Reconstruction

Authors: Sri Sai Ramya Bojedla, Falguni Pati

Abstract:

Nature provides the best of solutions to humans. One such incredible gift to regenerative medicine is silk. The literature has publicized a long appreciation for silk owing to its incredible physical and biological assets. Its bioactive nature, unique mechanical strength, and processing flexibility make us curious to explore further to apply it in the clinics for the welfare of mankind. In this study, Antheraea mylitta and Bombyx mori silk fibroin microfibers are developed by two economical and straightforward steps via degumming and hydrolysis for the first time, and a bioactive composite is manufactured by mixing silk fibroin microfibers at various concentrations with polycaprolactone (PCL), a biocompatible, aliphatic semi-crystalline synthetic polymer. Reconstructive surgery in any part of the body except for the maxillofacial region deals with replacing its function. But answering both the aesthetics and function is of utmost importance when it comes to facial reconstruction as it plays a critical role in the psychological and social well-being of the patient. The main concern in developing adequate bone graft substitutes or a scaffold is the noteworthy variation in each patient's bone anatomy. Additionally, the anatomical shape and size will vary based on the type of defect. The advent of additive manufacturing (AM) or 3D printing techniques to bone tissue engineering has facilitated overcoming many of the restraints of conventional fabrication techniques. The acquired patient's CT data is converted into a stereolithographic (STL)-file which is further utilized by the 3D printer to create a 3D scaffold structure in an interconnected layer-by-layer fashion. This study aims to address the limitations of currently available materials and fabrication technologies and develop a customized biomaterial implant via 3D printing technology to reconstruct complex form, function, and aesthetics of the facial anatomy. These composite scaffolds underwent structural and mechanical characterization. Atomic force microscopic (AFM) and field emission scanning electron microscopic (FESEM) images showed the uniform dispersion of the silk fibroin microfibers in the PCL matrix. With the addition of silk, there is improvement in the compressive strength of the hybrid scaffolds. The scaffolds with Antheraea mylitta silk revealed higher compressive modulus than that of Bombyx mori silk. The above results of PCL-silk scaffolds strongly recommend their utilization in bone regenerative applications. Successful completion of this research will provide a great weapon in the maxillofacial reconstructive armamentarium.

Keywords: compressive modulus, 3d printing, maxillofacial reconstruction, natural fiber reinforced composites, silk fibroin microfibers

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1222 A Review on Modeling and Optimization of Integration of Renewable Energy Resources (RER) for Minimum Energy Cost, Minimum CO₂ Emissions and Sustainable Development, in Recent Years

Authors: M. M. Wagh, V. V. Kulkarni

Abstract:

The rising economic activities, growing population and improving living standards of world have led to a steady growth in its appetite for quality and quantity of energy services. As the economy expands the electricity demand is going to grow further, increasing the challenges of the more generation and stresses on the utility grids. Appropriate energy model will help in proper utilization of the locally available renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, biomass, small hydro etc. to integrate in the available grid, reducing the investments in energy infrastructure. Further to these new technologies like smart grids, decentralized energy planning, energy management practices, energy efficiency are emerging. In this paper, the attempt has been made to study and review the recent energy planning models, energy forecasting models, and renewable energy integration models. In addition, various modeling techniques and tools are reviewed and discussed.

Keywords: energy modeling, integration of renewable energy, energy modeling tools, energy modeling techniques

Procedia PDF Downloads 345
1221 The Origin, Diffusion and a Comparison of Ordinary Differential Equations Numerical Solutions Used by SIR Model in Order to Predict SARS-CoV-2 in Nordic Countries

Authors: Gleda Kutrolli, Maksi Kutrolli, Etjon Meco

Abstract:

SARS-CoV-2 virus is currently one of the most infectious pathogens for humans. It started in China at the end of 2019 and now it is spread in all over the world. The origin and diffusion of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, is analysed based on the discussion of viral phylogeny theory. With the aim of understanding the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to modelize the spread of the virus and simulate its activity. In this paper, the prediction of coronavirus outbreak is done by using SIR model without vital dynamics, applying different numerical technique solving ordinary differential equations (ODEs). We find out that ABM and MRT methods perform better than other techniques and that the activity of the virus will decrease in April but it never cease (for some time the activity will remain low) and the next cycle will start in the middle July 2020 for Norway and Denmark, and October 2020 for Sweden, and September for Finland.

Keywords: forecasting, ordinary differential equations, SARS-COV-2 epidemic, SIR model

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1220 Theoretical and ML-Driven Identification of a Mispriced Credit Risk

Authors: Yuri Katz, Kun Liu, Arunram Atmacharan

Abstract:

Due to illiquidity, mispricing on Credit Markets is inevitable. This creates huge challenges to banks and investors as they seek to find new ways of risk valuation and portfolio management in a post-credit crisis world. Here, we analyze the difference in behavior of the spread-to-maturity in investment and high-yield categories of US corporate bonds between 2014 and 2023. Deviation from the theoretical dependency of this measure in the universe under study allows to identify multiple cases of mispriced credit risk. Remarkably, we observe mispriced bonds in both categories of credit ratings. This identification is supported by the application of the state-of-the-art machine learning model in more than 90% of cases. Noticeably, the ML-driven model-based forecasting of a category of bond’s credit ratings demonstrate an excellent out-of-sample accuracy (AUC = 98%). We believe that these results can augment conventional valuations of credit portfolios.

Keywords: credit risk, credit ratings, bond pricing, spread-to-maturity, machine learning

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1219 Preparation of Novel Silicone/Graphene-based Nanostructured Surfaces as Fouling Release Coatings

Authors: Mohamed S. Selim, Nesreen A. Fatthallah, Shimaa A. Higazy, Zhifeng Hao, Ping Jing Mo

Abstract:

As marine fouling-release (FR) surfaces, two new superhydrophobic nanocomposite series of polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) loaded with reduced graphene oxide (RGO) and graphene oxide/boehmite nanorods (GO-γ-AlOOH) nanofillers were created. The self-cleaning and antifouling capabilities were modified by controlling the nanofillers' shapes and distribution in the silicone matrix. With an average diameter of 10-20 nm and a length of 200 nm, γ-AlOOH nanorods showed a single crystallinity. RGO was made using a hydrothermal process, whereas GO-γ-AlOOH nanocomposites were made using a chemical deposition method for use as fouling-release coating materials. These nanofillers were disseminated in the silicone matrix using the solution casting method to explore the synergetic effects of graphene-based materials on the surface, mechanical, and FR characteristics. Water contact angle (WCA), scanning electron, and atomic force microscopes were used to investigate the surface's hydrophobicity and antifouling capabilities (SEM and AFM). The roughness, superhydrophobicity, and surface mechanical characteristics of coatings all increased the homogeneity of the nanocomposite dispersion. To examine the antifouling effects of the coating systems, laboratory tests were conducted for 30 days using specified bacteria.PDMS/GO-γ-AlOOH nanorod composite demonstrated superior antibacterial efficacy against several bacterial strains than PDMS/RGO nanocomposite. The high surface area and stabilizing effects of the GO-γ-AlOOH hybrid nanofillers are to blame for this. The biodegradability percentage of the PDMS/GO-γ-AlOOH nanorod composite (3 wt.%) was the lowest (1.6%), while the microbial endurability percentages for gram-positive, gram-negative, and fungi were 86.42%, 97.94%, and 85.97%, respectively. The homogeneity of the GO-γ-AlOOH (3 wt.%) dispersion, which had a WCA of 151° and a rough surface, was the most profound superhydrophobic antifouling nanostructured coating.

Keywords: superhydrophobic nanocomposite, fouling release, nanofillers, surface coating

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1218 Effect of Carbon Nanotubes on Ultraviolet and Immersion Stability of Diglycidyl Ether of Bisphenol A Epoxy Coating

Authors: Artemova Anastasiia, Shen Zexiang, Savilov Serguei

Abstract:

The marine environment is very aggressive for a number of factors, such as moisture, temperature, winds, ultraviolet radiation, chloride ion concentration, oxygen concentration, pollution, and biofouling, all contributing to marine corrosion. Protective organic coatings provide protection either by a barrier action from the layer, which is limited due to permeability to water and oxygen or from active corrosion inhibition and cathodic protection due to the pigments in the coating. Carbon nanotubes can play not only barrier effect but also passivation effect via adsorbing molecular species of oxygen, hydroxyl, chloride and sulphate anions. Multiwall carbon nanotubes composite provide very important properties such as mechanical strength, non-cytotoxicity, outstanding thermal and electrical conductivity, and very strong absorption of ultraviolet radiation. The samples of stainless steel (316L) coated by epoxy resin with carbon nanotubes-based pigments were exposed to UV irradiation (340nm), and immersion to the sodium chloride solution for 1000h and corrosion behavior in 3.5 wt% sodium chloride (NaCl) solution was investigated. Experimental results showed that corrosion current significantly decreased in the presence of carbon nanotube-based materials, especially nitrogen-doped ones, in the composite coating. Importance of the structure and composition of the pigment materials and its composition was established, and the mechanism of the protection was described. Finally, the effect of nitrogen doping on the corrosion behavior was investigated. The pigment-polymer crosslinking improves the coating performance and the corrosion rate decreases in comparison with pure epoxy coating from 5.7E-05 to 1.4E-05mm/yr for the coating without any degradation; in more than 6 times for the coating after ultraviolet degradation; and more than 16% for the coatings after immersion degradation.

Keywords: corrosion, coating, carbon nanotubes, degradation

Procedia PDF Downloads 159
1217 The Factors Predicting Credibility of News in Social Media in Thailand

Authors: Ekapon Thienthaworn

Abstract:

This research aims to study the reliability of the forecasting factor in social media by using survey research methods with questionnaires. The sampling is the group of undergraduate students in Bangkok. A multiple-step random number of 400 persons, data analysis are descriptive statistics with multivariate regression analysis. The research found the average of the overall trust at the intermediate level for reading the news in social media and the results of the multivariate regression analysis to find out the factors that forecast credibility of the media found the only content that has the power to forecast reliability of undergraduate students in Bangkok to reading the news on social media at the significance level.at 0.05.These can be factors with forecasts reliability of news in social media by a variable that has the highest influence factor of the media content and the speed is also important for reliability of the news.

Keywords: credibility of news, behaviors and attitudes, social media, web board

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1216 Time Series Modelling and Prediction of River Runoff: Case Study of Karkheh River, Iran

Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

Abstract:

Rainfall and runoff phenomenon is a chaotic and complex outcome of nature which requires sophisticated modelling and simulation methods for explanation and use. Time Series modelling allows runoff data analysis and can be used as forecasting tool. In the paper attempt is made to model river runoff data and predict the future behavioural pattern of river based on annual past observations of annual river runoff. The river runoff analysis and predict are done using ARIMA model. For evaluating the efficiency of prediction to hydrological events such as rainfall, runoff and etc., we use the statistical formulae applicable. The good agreement between predicted and observation river runoff coefficient of determination (R2) display that the ARIMA (4,1,1) is the suitable model for predicting Karkheh River runoff at Iran.

Keywords: time series modelling, ARIMA model, river runoff, Karkheh River, CLS method

Procedia PDF Downloads 341
1215 Study of Elastic-Plastic Fatigue Crack in Functionally Graded Materials

Authors: Somnath Bhattacharya, Kamal Sharma, Vaibhav Sonkar

Abstract:

Composite materials emerged in the middle of the 20th century as a promising class of engineering materials providing new prospects for modern technology. Recently, a new class of composite materials known as functionally graded materials (FGMs) has drawn considerable attention of the scientific community. In general, FGMs are defined as composite materials in which the composition or microstructure or both are locally varied so that a certain variation of the local material properties is achieved. This gradual change in composition and microstructure of material is suitable to get gradient of properties and performances. FGMs are synthesized in such a way that they possess continuous spatial variations in volume fractions of their constituents to yield a predetermined composition. These variations lead to the formation of a non-homogeneous macrostructure with continuously varying mechanical and / or thermal properties in one or more than one direction. Lightweight functionally graded composites with high strength to weight and stiffness to weight ratios have been used successfully in aircraft industry and other engineering applications like in electronics industry and in thermal barrier coatings. In the present work, elastic-plastic crack growth problems (using Ramberg-Osgood Model) in an FGM plate under cyclic load has been explored by extended finite element method. Both edge and centre crack problems have been solved by taking additionally holes, inclusions and minor cracks under plane stress conditions. Both soft and hard inclusions have been implemented in the problems. The validity of linear elastic fracture mechanics theory is limited to the brittle materials. A rectangular plate of functionally graded material of length 100 mm and height 200 mm with 100% copper-nickel alloy on left side and 100% ceramic (alumina) on right side is considered in the problem. Exponential gradation in property is imparted in x-direction. A uniform traction of 100 MPa is applied to the top edge of the rectangular domain along y direction. In some problems, domain contains major crack along with minor cracks or / and holes or / and inclusions. Major crack is located the centre of the left edge or the centre of the domain. The discontinuities, such as minor cracks, holes, and inclusions are added either singly or in combination with each other. On the basis of this study, it is found that effect of minor crack in the domain’s failure crack length is minimum whereas soft inclusions have moderate effect and the effect of holes have maximum effect. It is observed that the crack growth is more before the failure in each case when hard inclusions are present in place of soft inclusions.

Keywords: elastic-plastic, fatigue crack, functionally graded materials, extended finite element method (XFEM)

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1214 Preparation and Characterization of Poly(L-Lactic Acid)/Oligo(D-Lactic Acid) Grafted Cellulose Composites

Authors: Md. Hafezur Rahaman, Mohd. Maniruzzaman, Md. Shadiqul Islam, Md. Masud Rana

Abstract:

With the growth of environmental awareness, enormous researches are running to develop the next generation materials based on sustainability, eco-competence, and green chemistry to preserve and protect the environment. Due to biodegradability and biocompatibility, poly (L-lactic acid) (PLLA) has a great interest in ecological and medical applications. Also, cellulose is one of the most abundant biodegradable, renewable polymers found in nature. It has several advantages such as low cost, high mechanical strength, biodegradability and so on. Recently, an immense deal of attention has been paid for the scientific and technological development of α-cellulose based composite material. PLLA could be used for grafting of cellulose to improve the compatibility prior to the composite preparation. Here it is quite difficult to form a bond between lower hydrophilic molecules like PLLA and α-cellulose. Dimmers and oligomers can easily be grafted onto the surface of the cellulose by ring opening or polycondensation method due to their low molecular weight. In this research, α-cellulose extracted from jute fiber is grafted with oligo(D-lactic acid) (ODLA) via graft polycondensation reaction in presence of para-toluene sulphonic acid and potassium persulphate in toluene at 130°C for 9 hours under 380 mmHg. Here ODLA is synthesized by ring opening polymerization of D-lactides in the presence of stannous octoate (0.03 wt% of lactide) and D-lactic acids at 140°C for 10 hours. Composites of PLLA with ODLA grafted α-cellulose are prepared by solution mixing and film casting method. Confirmation of grafting was carried out through FTIR spectroscopy and SEM analysis. A strongest carbonyl peak of FTIR spectroscopy at 1728 cm⁻¹ of ODLA grafted α-cellulose confirms the grafting of ODLA onto α-cellulose which is absent in α-cellulose. It is also observed from SEM photographs that there are some white areas (spot) on ODLA grafted α-cellulose as compared to α-cellulose may indicate the grafting of ODLA and consistent with FTIR results. Analysis of the composites is carried out by FTIR, SEM, WAXD and thermal gravimetric analyzer. Most of the FTIR characteristic absorption peak of the composites shifted to higher wave number with increasing peak area may provide a confirmation that PLLA and grafted cellulose have better compatibility in composites via intermolecular hydrogen bonding and this supports previously published results. Grafted α-cellulose distributions in composites are uniform which is observed by SEM analysis. WAXD studied show that only homo-crystalline structures of PLLA present in the composites. Thermal stability of the composites is enhanced with increasing the percentages of ODLA grafted α-cellulose in composites. As a consequence, the resultant composites have a resistance toward the thermal degradation. The effects of length of the grafted chain and biodegradability of the composites will be studied in further research.

Keywords: α-cellulose, composite, graft polycondensation, oligo(D-lactic acid), poly(L-lactic acid)

Procedia PDF Downloads 117
1213 Investigation of Doping of CdSe QDs in Organic Semiconductor for Solar Cell Applications

Authors: Ganesh R. Bhand, N. B. Chaure

Abstract:

Cadmium selenide (CdSe) quantum dots (QDs) were prepared by solvothermal route. Subsequently a inorganic QDs-organic semiconductor (copper phthalocyanine) nanocomposite (i.e CuPc:CdSe nanocomposites) were produced by different concentration of QDs varied in CuPc. The nanocomposite thin films have been prepared by means of spin coating technique. The optical, structural and morphological properties of nanocomposite films have been investigated. The transmission electron microscopy (TEM) confirmed the formation of QDs having average size of  4 nm. The X-ray diffraction pattern exhibits cubic crystal structure of CdSe with reflection to (111), (220) and (311) at 25.4ᵒ, 42.2ᵒ and 49.6ᵒ respectively. The additional peak observed at lower angle at 6.9ᵒ in nanocomposite thin films are associated to CuPc. The field emission scanning electron microscopy (FESEM) observed that surface morphology varied in increasing concentration of CdSe QDs. The obtained nanocomposite show significant improvement in the thermal stability as compared to the pure CuPc indicated by thermo-gravimetric analysis (TGA) in thermograph. The effect in the Raman spectra of composites samples gives a confirm evidence of homogenous dispersion of CdSe in the CuPc matrix and their strong interaction between them to promotes charge transfer property. The success of reaction between composite was confirmed by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR). The photo physical properties were studied using UV - visible spectroscopy. The enhancement of the optical absorption in visible region for nanocomposite layer was observed with increasing the concentration of CdSe in CuPc. This composite may obtain the maximized interface between QDs and polymer for efficient charge separation and enhance the charge transport. Such nanocomposite films for potential application in fabrication of hybrid solar cell with improved power conversion efficiency.

Keywords: CdSe QDs, cupper phthalocyanine, FTIR, optical absorption

Procedia PDF Downloads 199
1212 Carbon-Based Electrochemical Detection of Pharmaceuticals from Water

Authors: M. Ardelean, F. Manea, A. Pop, J. Schoonman

Abstract:

The presence of pharmaceuticals in the environment and especially in water has gained increasing attention. They are included in emerging class of pollutants, and for most of them, legal limits have not been set-up due to their impact on human health and ecosystem was not determined and/or there is not the advanced analytical method for their quantification. In this context, the development of various advanced analytical methods for the quantification of pharmaceuticals in water is required. The electrochemical methods are known to exhibit the great potential for high-performance analytical methods but their performance is in direct relation to the electrode material and the operating techniques. In this study, two types of carbon-based electrodes materials, i.e., boron-doped diamond (BDD) and carbon nanofiber (CNF)-epoxy composite electrodes have been investigated through voltammetric techniques for the detection of naproxen in water. The comparative electrochemical behavior of naproxen (NPX) on both BDD and CNF electrodes was studied by cyclic voltammetry, and the well-defined peak corresponding to NPX oxidation was found for each electrode. NPX oxidation occurred on BDD electrode at the potential value of about +1.4 V/SCE (saturated calomel electrode) and at about +1.2 V/SCE for CNF electrode. The sensitivities for NPX detection were similar for both carbon-based electrode and thus, CNF electrode exhibited superiority in relation to the detection potential. Differential-pulsed voltammetry (DPV) and square-wave voltammetry (SWV) techniques were exploited to improve the electroanalytical performance for the NPX detection, and the best results related to the sensitivity of 9.959 µA·µM-1 were achieved using DPV. In addition, the simultaneous detection of NPX and fluoxetine -a very common antidepressive drug, also present in water, was studied using CNF electrode and very good results were obtained. The detection potential values that allowed a good separation of the detection signals together with the good sensitivities were appropriate for the simultaneous detection of both tested pharmaceuticals. These results reclaim CNF electrode as a valuable tool for the individual/simultaneous detection of pharmaceuticals in water.

Keywords: boron-doped diamond electrode, carbon nanofiber-epoxy composite electrode, emerging pollutans, pharmaceuticals

Procedia PDF Downloads 281
1211 Redefining Solar Generation Estimation: A Comprehensive Analysis of Real Utility Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) Data from Various Projects in New York

Authors: Haowei Lu, Anaya Aaron

Abstract:

Understanding historical solar generation and forecasting future solar generation from interconnected Distributed Energy Resources (DER) is crucial for utility planning and interconnection studies. The existing methodology, which relies on solar radiation, weather data, and common inverter models, is becoming less accurate. Rapid advancements in DER technologies have resulted in more diverse project sites, deviating from common patterns due to various factors such as DC/AC ratio, solar panel performance, tilt angle, and the presence of DC-coupled battery energy storage systems. In this paper, the authors review 10,000 DER projects within the system and analyze the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) data for various types to demonstrate the impact of different parameters. An updated methodology is proposed for redefining historical and future solar generation in distribution feeders.

Keywords: photovoltaic system, solar energy, fluctuations, energy storage, uncertainty

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1210 In-House Enzyme Blends from Polyporus ciliatus CBS 366.74 for Enzymatic Saccharification of Pretreated Corn Stover

Authors: Joseph A. Bentil, Anders Thygesen, Lene Langea, Moses Mensah, Anne Meyer

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The study investigated the saccharification potential of in-house enzymes produced from a white-rot basidiomycete strain, Polyporus ciliatus CBS 366.74. The in-house enzymes were produced by growing the fungus on mono and composite substrates of cocoa pod husk (CPH) and green seaweed (GS) (Ulva lactuca sp.) with and without the addition of 25mM ammonium nitrate at 4%w/v substrate concentration in submerged condition for 144 hours. The crude enzyme extracts preparations (CEE 1-5 and CEE 1-5+AN) obtained from the fungal cultivation process were sterile-filtered and used as enzyme sources for enzymatic hydrolysis of hydrothermally pretreated corn stover using a commercial cocktail enzyme, Cellic Ctec3, as benchmark. The hydrolysis was conducted at 50ᵒC with 50mM sodium acetate buffer, pH 5 based on enzyme dosages of 5 and 10 CMCase Units/g biomass at 1%w/v dry weight substrate concentration at time points of 6, 24, and 72 hours. The enzyme activity profile of the in-house enzymes varied among the growth substrates with the composite substrates (50-75% GS and AN inclusion), yielding better enzyme activities, especially endoglucanases (0.4-0.5U/mL), β-glucosidases (0.1-0.2 U/mL), and xylanases (3-10 U/mL). However, nitrogen supplementation had no significant effect on enzyme activities of crude extracts from 100% GS substituted substrates. From the enzymatic hydrolysis, it was observed that the in-house enzymes were capable of hydrolysing the pretreated corn stover at varying degrees; however, the saccharification yield was less than 10%. Consequently, theoretical glucose yield was ten times lower than Cellic Ctec3 at both dosage levels. There was no linear correlation between glucose yield and enzyme dosage for the in-house enzymes, unlike the benchmark enzyme. It is therefore recommended that the in-house enzymes are used to complement the dosage of commercial enzymes to reduce the cost of biomass saccharification.

Keywords: enzyme production, hydrolysis yield, feedstock, enzyme blend, Polyporus ciliatus

Procedia PDF Downloads 267
1209 Cascaded Neural Network for Internal Temperature Forecasting in Induction Motor

Authors: Hidir S. Nogay

Abstract:

In this study, two systems were created to predict interior temperature in induction motor. One of them consisted of a simple ANN model which has two layers, ten input parameters and one output parameter. The other one consisted of eight ANN models connected each other as cascaded. Cascaded ANN system has 17 inputs. Main reason of cascaded system being used in this study is to accomplish more accurate estimation by increasing inputs in the ANN system. Cascaded ANN system is compared with simple conventional ANN model to prove mentioned advantages. Dataset was obtained from experimental applications. Small part of the dataset was used to obtain more understandable graphs. Number of data is 329. 30% of the data was used for testing and validation. Test data and validation data were determined for each ANN model separately and reliability of each model was tested. As a result of this study, it has been understood that the cascaded ANN system produced more accurate estimates than conventional ANN model.

Keywords: cascaded neural network, internal temperature, inverter, three-phase induction motor

Procedia PDF Downloads 345
1208 Fisheries Education in Karnataka: Trends, Current Status, Performance and Prospects

Authors: A. Vinay, Mary Josephine, Shreesha. S. Rao, Dhande Kranthi Kumar, J. Nandini

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This paper looks at the development of Fisheries education in Karnataka and the supply of skilled human capital to the sector. The study tries to analyse their job occupancy patterns, Compound Growth Rate (CGR) and forecasts the fisheries graduates supply using the Holt method. In Karnataka, fisheries are one of the neglected allied sectors of agriculture in spite of having enormous scope and potential to contribute to the State's agriculture GDP. The State Government has been negligent in absorbing skilled human capital for the development of fisheries, as there are so many vacant positions in both education institutes, as well as the State fisheries department. CGR and forecasting of fisheries graduates shows a positive growth rate and increasing trend, from which we can understand that by proper utilization of skilled human capital can bring development in the fisheries sector of Karnataka.

Keywords: compound growth rate, fisheries education, holt method, skilled human capital

Procedia PDF Downloads 266
1207 Assessment of the Effectiveness of the Anti-Debris Flow Engineering Constructed to Reduce the Risk of Expected Debris Flow in the River Mletiskhevi by Computer Program RAMMS

Authors: Sopio Gogilava, Goga Chakhaia, Levan Tsulukidze, Zurab Laoshvili, Irina Khubulava, Shalva Bosikashvili, Teimuraz Gugushvili

Abstract:

Geoinformatics systems (GIS) integrated computer program RAMMS is widely used for forecasting debris flows and accordingly for the determination of anticipating risks with 85% accuracy. In view of the above, the work introduces new capabilities of the computer program RAMMS, which evaluates the effectiveness of anti-debris flow engineering construction, namely: the possibility of decreasing the expected velocity, kinetic energy, and output cone volume in the Mletiskhevi River. As a result of research has been determined that the anti-debris flow engineering construction designed to reduce the expected debris flow risk in the Mletiskhevi River is an effective environmental protection technology, that's why its introduction is promising.

Keywords: construction, debris flow, geoinformatics systems, program RAMMS

Procedia PDF Downloads 145