Search results for: community-based flood risk management

Authors: Shaidatul Azdawiyah Abdul Talib, Wan Mohd Razi Idris, Liew Ju Neng, Tukimat Lihan, Muhammad Zamir Abdul Rasid

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Climate change has received great attention worldwide due to the impact of weather causing extreme events. Rainfall and temperature are crucial weather components associated with climate change. In Malaysia, increasing temperatures and changes in rainfall distribution patterns lead to drought and flood events involving agricultural areas, especially rice fields. Muda Agricultural Development Authority (MADA) is the largest rice growing area among the 10 granary areas in Malaysia and has faced floods and droughts in the past due to changing climate. Changes in rainfall and temperature patter affect rice yield. Therefore, trend analysis is important to identify changes in temperature and rainfall patterns as it gives an initial overview for further analysis. Six locations across the MADA area were selected based on the availability of meteorological station (MetMalaysia) data. Historical data (1991 to 2020) collected from MetMalaysia and future climate projection by multi-model ensemble of climate model from CMIP5 (CNRM-CM5, GFDL-CM3, MRI-CGCM3, NorESM1-M and IPSL-CM5A-LR) have been analyzed using Mann-Kendall test to detect the time series trend, together with standardized precipitation anomaly, rainfall anomaly index, precipitation concentration index and temperature anomaly. Future projection data were analyzed based on 3 different periods; early century (2020 – 2046), middle century (2047 – 2073) and late-century (2074 – 2099). Results indicate that the MADA area does encounter extremely wet and dry conditions, leading to drought and flood events in the past. The Mann-Kendall (MK) trend analysis test discovered a significant increasing trend (p < 0.05) in annual rainfall (z = 0.40; s = 15.12) and temperature (z = 0.61; s = 0.04) during the historical period. Similarly, for both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, a significant increasing trend (p < 0.05) was found for rainfall (RCP 4.5: z = 0.15; s = 2.55; RCP 8.5: z = 0.41; s = 8.05;) and temperature (RCP 4.5: z = 0.84; s = 0.02; RCP 8.5: z = 0.94; s = 0.05). Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, the average temperature is projected to increase up to 1.6 °C in early century, 2.0 °C in the middle century and 2.4 °C in the late century. In contrast, under RCP 8.5 scenario, the average temperature is projected to increase up to 1.8 °C in the early century, 3.1 °C in the middle century and 4.3 °C in late century. Drought is projected to occur in 2038 and 2043 (early century); 2052 and 2069 (middle century); and 2095, 2097 to 2099 (late century) under RCP 4.5 scenario. As for RCP 8.5 scenario, drought is projected to occur in 2021, 2031 and 2034 (early century); and 2069 (middle century). No drought is projected to occur in the late century under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Thus, this information can be used for the analysis of the impact of climate change scenarios on rice growth and yield besides other crops found in MADA area. Additionally, this study, it would be helpful for researchers and decision-makers in developing applicable adaptation and mitigation strategies to reduce the impact of climate change.

Keywords: climate projection, drought, flood, rainfall, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5, temperature

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Authors: Julio Jesus Salazar, Max Jesus De Lama

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The challenges of water management are aggravated by global change, which implies high complexity and associated uncertainty; water management is difficult because water networks cross domains (natural, societal, and political), scales (space, time, jurisdictional, institutional, knowledge, etc.) and levels (area: patches to global; knowledge: a specific case to generalized principles). In this context, we need to apply natural and non-natural measures to manage water and soil. The Basin Management Methodology considers multifunctional measures of natural water retention and erosion control and soil formation to protect water resources and address the challenges related to the recovery or conservation of the ecosystem, as well as natural characteristics of water bodies, to improve the quantitative status of water bodies and reduce vulnerability to floods and droughts. This method of water management focuses on the positive impacts of the chemical and ecological status of water bodies, restoration of the functioning of the ecosystem and its natural services; thus, contributing to both adaptation and mitigation of climate change. This methodology was applied in 7 interventions in the sub-basin of the Shullcas River in Huancayo-Junín-Peru, obtaining great benefits in the framework of the participation of alliances of actors and integrated planning scenarios. To implement the methodology in the sub-basin of the Shullcas River, a process called Climate Smart Territories (CST) was used; with which the variables were characterized in a highly complex space. The diagnosis was then worked using risk management and adaptation to climate change. Finally, it was concluded with the selection of alternatives and projects of this type. Therefore, the CST approach and process face the challenges of climate change through integrated, systematic, interdisciplinary and collective responses at different scales that fit the needs of ecosystems and their services that are vital to human well-being. This methodology is now replicated at the level of the Mantaro river basin, improving with other initiatives that lead to the model of a resilient basin.

Keywords: climate-smart territories, climate change, ecosystem services, natural measures, Climate Smart Territories (CST) approach

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Authors: Pacharaporn Lekyan

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The purpose of this study is to explore the conflict management affecting the workplace and analyze the ability of the prediction of leadership of the headman and the methods to handle the conflict in an organization. The quantitative research and developed the questionnaire in order to collect information from the respondents from 200 samples from leader or manager who worked in frozen food factories in Thailand. The result analysis shows about the problem of the relationship between conflict management factors, leadership, and the confliction in organization. The emotion of the leader in the organization is not the only factor that can affect conflict management but also the emotion of surrounding people which this factor can happen all the time and shows that four out of five factors of interpersonal conflict management have affected on emotion intelligence and also shows that the behaviors of leadership have an influence on conflict management.

Keywords: conflict management, emotional intelligence, leadership, factories' employee

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Authors: Johnson Adafin, James O. B. Rotimi, Suzanne Wilkinson, Abimbola O. Windapo

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An aspect of client expenditure management that requires attention is the level of accuracy achievable in design-stage elemental cost planning. This has been a major concern for construction clients and practitioners in New Zealand (NZ). Pre-tender estimating inaccuracies are significantly influenced by the level of risk information available to estimators. Proper cost planning activities should ensure the production of a project’s likely construction costs (initial and final), and subsequent cost control activities should prevent unpleasant consequences of cost overruns, disputes and project abandonment. If risks were properly identified and priced at the design stage, observed variance between design-stage elemental cost plans (ECPs) and final tender sums (FTS) (initial contract sums) could be reduced. This study investigates the variations between design-stage ECPs and FTS of construction projects, with a view to identifying risk factors that are responsible for the observed variance. Data were sourced through interviews, and risk factors were identified by using thematic analysis. Access was obtained to project files from the records of study participants (consultant quantity surveyors), and document analysis was employed in complementing the responses from the interviews. Study findings revealed the discrepancies between ECPs and FTS in the region of -14% and +16%. It is opined in this study that the identified risk factors were responsible for the variability observed. The values obtained from the analysis would enable greater accuracy in the forecast of FTS by Quantity Surveyors. Further, whilst inherent risks in construction project developments are observed globally, these findings have important ramifications for construction projects by expanding existing knowledge on what is needed for reasonable budgetary performance and successful delivery of construction projects. The findings contribute significantly to the study by providing quantitative confirmation to justify the theoretical conclusions generated in the literature from around the world. This therefore adds to and consolidates existing knowledge.

Keywords: accuracy, design-stage, elemental cost plan, final tender sum

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Authors: Joel Carlos Vieira Reinhardt, Mariana de Freitas Dewes, Odair Lelis Gonçalez

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This paper proposes a method to implement a strategic framework for the quality management system that considers the analysis of prospective scenarios in the determination of policy, mission, vision, objectives, processes, monitoring, and goals. Semantic categorization of qualitative testimonial research on employee perception shows it was possible to implement an effective change in the organizations at the Department of Aerospace Science and Technology through the focus on the organization's needs management, producing a rupture with the historical managerial practice.

Keywords: management of company needs, mission, prospective scenarios, quality management, quality policy, vision

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Authors: Olga A. Momot, Boris I. Synzynys, Alla A. Oudalova

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Obninsk is situated in the Kaluga region 100 km southwest of Moscow on the left bank of the Protva River. Several enterprises utilizing nuclear energy are operating in the town. A special attention in the region where radiation-hazardous facilities are located has traditionally been paid to radioactive gas and aerosol releases into the atmosphere; liquid waste discharges into the Protva river and groundwater pollution. Municipal intakes involve 34 wells arranged 15 km apart in a sequence north-south along the foot of the left slope of the Protva river valley. Northern and southern water intakes are upstream and downstream of the town, respectively. They belong to river valley intakes with mixed feeding, i.e. precipitation infiltration is responsible for a smaller part of groundwater, and a greater amount is being formed by overflowing from Protva. Water intakes are maintained by the Protva river runoff, the volume of which depends on the precipitation fallen out and watershed area. Groundwater contamination with tritium was first detected in a sanitary-protective zone of the Institute of Physics and Power Engineering (SRC-IPPE) by Roshydromet researchers when realizing the “Program of radiological monitoring in the territory of nuclear industry enterprises”. A comprehensive survey of the SRC-IPPE’s industrial site and adjacent territories has revealed that research nuclear reactors and accelerators where tritium targets are applied as well as radioactive waste storages could be considered as potential sources of technogenic tritium. All the above sources are located within the sanitary controlled area of intakes. Tritium activity in water of springs and wells near the SRC-IPPE is about 17.4 – 3200 Bq/l. The observed values of tritium activity are below the intervention levels (7600 Bq/l for inorganic compounds and 3300 Bq/l for organically bound tritium). The risk has being assessed to estimate possible effect of considered tritium concentrations on human health. Data on tritium concentrations in pipe-line drinking water were used for calculations. The activity of 3H amounted to 10.6 Bq/l and corresponded to the risk of such water consumption of ~ 3·10-7 year-1. The risk value given in magnitude is close to the individual annual death risk for population living near a NPP – 1.6·10-8 year-1 and at the same time corresponds to the level of tolerable risk (10-6) and falls within “risk optimization”, i.e. in the sphere for planning the economically sound measures on exposure risk reduction. To estimate the chemical risk, physical and chemical analysis was made of waters from all springs and wells near the SRC-IPPE. Chemical risk from groundwater contamination was estimated according to the EPA US guidance. The risk of carcinogenic diseases at a drinking water consumption amounts to 5·10-5. According to the classification accepted the health risk in case of spring water consumption is inadmissible. The compared assessments of risk associated with tritium exposure, on the one hand, and the dangerous chemical (e.g. heavy metals) contamination of Obninsk drinking water, on the other hand, have confirmed that just these chemical pollutants are responsible for health risk.

Keywords: radiation-hazardous facilities, water intakes, tritium, heavy metal, health risk

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Authors: M. C. Pardo-Ferreira, J. C. Rubio-Romero, M. Martínez-Rojas

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Resilience Engineering is a new paradigm of safety management that proposes to change the way of managing the safety to focus on the things that go well instead of the things that go wrong. Many complex and high-risk sectors such as air traffic control, health care, nuclear power plants, railways or emergencies, have applied this new vision of safety and have obtained very positive results. In the construction sector, safety management continues to be a problem as indicated by the statistics of occupational injuries worldwide. Therefore, it is important to improve safety management in this sector. For this reason, it is proposed to apply Resilience Engineering to the construction sector. The Construction Phase Health and Safety Plan emerges as a key element for the planning of safety management. One of the key tools of Resilience Engineering is the Resilience Assessment Grid that allows measuring the four essential abilities (respond, monitor, learn and anticipate) for resilient performance. The purpose of this paper is to develop a questionnaire based on the Resilience Assessment Grid, specifically on the ability to learn, to assess whether a Construction Phase Health and Safety Plans helps companies in a construction site to implement this ability. The research process was divided into four stages: (i) initial design of a questionnaire, (ii) validation of the content of the questionnaire, (iii) redesign of the questionnaire and (iii) application of the Delphi method. The questionnaire obtained could be used as a tool to help construction companies to evolve from Safety-I to Safety-II. In this way, companies could begin to develop the ability to learn, which will serve as a basis for the development of the other abilities necessary for resilient performance. The following steps in this research are intended to develop other questions that allow evaluating the rest of abilities for resilient performance such as monitoring, learning and anticipating.

Keywords: resilience engineering, construction sector, resilience assessment grid, construction phase health and safety plan

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Authors: Hamed Zolfaghari, Mojtaba Kord

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Project planners and controllers are frequently faced with the challenge of inadequate software for the preparation of automatic project progress reports based on actual project information updates. They usually make dashboards in Microsoft Excel, which is local and not applicable online. Another shortcoming is that it is not linked to planning software such as Microsoft Project, which lacks the database required for data storage. This study aimed to propose a model for the preparation of reports on automatic online project progress based on actual project information updates by the integration of Primavera P6, SQL database, and Power BI for a construction project. The designed model could be applicable to project planners and controller agents by enabling them to prepare project reports automatically and immediately after updating the project schedule using actual information. To develop the model, the data were entered into P6, and the information was stored on the SQL database. The proposed model could prepare a wide range of reports, such as earned value management, HR reports, and financial, physical, and risk reports automatically on the Power BI application. Furthermore, the reports could be published and shared online.

Keywords: primavera P6, SQL, Power BI, EVM, integration management

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Authors: Yolanda Indah Permatasari, Sudarsono Hardjosoekarto

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Public private partnership (PPP) scheme was considered as an alternative source of funding for infrastructure provision. However, the performance of PPP scheme and interest of private sector to participate in the provision of infrastructure was still practically low. This phenomenon motivates the research to reconstruct the form of collaborative governance at the policy level from the perspective of transaction cost of the PPP scheme. Soft-system methodology (SSM)-based action research was used as this research methodology. The result of this study concludes that the emergence of transaction cost sources at the policy level is caused by the absence of a law that governs infrastructure investment, especially the implementation of PPP scheme. This absence is causing the imbalance in risk allocation and risk mitigation between the public and private sector. Thus, this research recommended the formulation of infrastructure investment law that aims to minimize asymmetry information, to anticipate the principal-principal problems, and to provide legal basis that ensures risk certainty and guarantee fair risk allocation between public and private sector.

Keywords: public governance, public private partnership, soft system methodology, transaction cost

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Authors: Sonia Tamanna, Akramul Hassan, Mohammad Shakil Mahmood, Farzana Ansari, Gowhar Rashid, Mir Fahim Faisal, M. Zakir Hossain Howlader

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Background: Preeclampsia (PE), a pregnancy-specific hypertensive disorder, significantly impacts maternal and fetal health. It is particularly prevalent in underdeveloped countries and is linked to preterm delivery and fetal growth. The renin-angiotensin system (RAS) plays a crucial role in ensuring a successful pregnancy outcome, with Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme 2 (ACE2) being a key component. ACE2 converts ANG II to Ang-(1-7), offering protection against ANG II-induced stress and inflammation while regulating blood pressure and osmotic balance during pregnancy. The reduced maternal plasma angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) seen in preeclampsia might contribute to its pathogenesis. However, there has been a dearth of comprehensive research into the association between ACE2 gene polymorphism and preeclampsia. In the South Asian population, hypertension is strongly linked to two SNPs: rs2285666 and rs879922. This genotype was therefore considered, and the possible association of maternal and fetal ACE2 gene polymorphism with preeclampsia within the Bangladeshi population was evaluated. Method: DNA was extracted from peripheral white blood cells (WBCs) using the organic method, and SNP genotyping was done via PCR-RFLP. Odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated using logistic regression to determine relative risk. Result: A comprehensive case-control study was conducted on 51 PE patients and their infants, along with 56 control subjects and their infants. Maternal single nuvleotide polymorphisms (SNP) (rs2285666) analysis revealed a strong association between the TT genotype and preeclampsia, with a four-fold increased risk in mothers (P=0.024, OR=4.00, 95% CI=1.36-11.37) compared to their ancestral genotype CC. However, the CT genotype (rs2285666) showed no significant difference (P=0.46, OR=1.54, 95% CI=0.57-4.14). Notably, no significant correlation was found in infants, regardless of their gender. For rs879922, no significant association was observed in both mothers and infants. This pioneering study suggests that mothers carrying the ACE2 gene variant rs2285666 (TT allele) may be at higher risk for preeclampsia, potentially influencing hypertension characteristics, whereas rs879922 does not appear to be associated with developing preeclampsia. Conclusion: This study sheds light on the role of ACE2 gene polymorphism, particularly the rs2285666 TT allele, in maternal susceptibility to preeclampsia. However, rs879922 does not appear to be linked to the risk of PE. This research contributes to our understanding of the genetic underpinnings of preeclampsia, offering insights into potential avenues for prevention and management.

Keywords: ACE2, PCR-RFLP, preeclampsia, single nuvleotide polymorphisms (SNPs)

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Authors: Otto Kakhidze, Hoda Alkhzaimi, Adam Ramey, Nasir Memon

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This paper provides an alternative, cyber security based a conceptual framework for the ethics of automated warfare. The large body of work produced on fully or partially autonomous warfare systems tends to overlook malicious security factors as in the possibility of technical attacks on these systems when it comes to the moral and legal decision-making. The argument provides a risk-oriented justification to why technical malicious risks cannot be dismissed in legal, ethical and policy considerations when warfare models are being implemented and deployed. The assumptions of the paper are supported by providing a broader model that contains the perspective of technological vulnerabilities through the lenses of the Game Theory, Just War Theory as well as standard and non-standard defense ethics. The paper argues that a conventional risk-benefit analysis without considering ethical factors is insufficient for making legal and policy decisions on automated warfare. This approach will provide the substructure for security and defense experts as well as legal scholars, ethicists and decision theorists to work towards common justificatory grounds that will accommodate the technical security concerns that have been overlooked in the current legal and policy models.

Keywords: automated warfare, ethics of automation, inherent hijacking, security vulnerabilities, risk, uncertainty

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Authors: T. Elrazaz

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This paper examines accrual and real earnings management by publicly listed targets around mergers and acquisitions. Prior literature shows that earnings management around mergers and acquisitions can have a significant economic impact because of the associated wealth transfers among stakeholders. More importantly, acting on behalf of their shareholders or pursuing their self-interests, managers of both targets and acquirers may be equally motivated to manipulate earnings prior to an acquisition to generate higher gains for their shareholders or themselves. Building on the grounds of information asymmetry, agency conflicts, stewardship theory, and the revelation principle, this study addresses the question of whether takeover targets employ accrual and real earnings management in the periods prior to the announcement of Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A). Additionally, this study examines whether acquirers are able to detect targets’ earnings management, and in response, adjust the acquisition premium paid in order not to face the risk of overpayment. This study uses an aggregate accruals approach in estimating accrual earnings management as proxied by estimated abnormal accruals. Additionally, real earnings management is proxied for by employing widely used models in accounting and finance literature. The results of this study indicate that takeover targets manipulate their earnings using accruals in the second year with an earnings release prior to the announcement of the M&A. Moreover, in partitioning the sample of targets according to the method of payment used in the deal, the results are restricted only to targets of stock-financed deals. These results are consistent with the argument that targets of cash-only or mixed-payment deals do not have the same strong motivations to manage their earnings as their stock-financed deals counterparts do additionally supporting the findings of prior studies that the method of payment in takeovers is value relevant. The findings of this study also indicate that takeover targets manipulate earnings upwards through cutting discretionary expenses the year prior to the acquisition while they do not do so by manipulating sales or production costs. Moreover, in partitioning the sample of targets according to the method of payment used in the deal, the results are restricted only to targets of stock-financed deals, providing further robustness to the results derived under the accrual-based models. Finally, this study finds evidence suggesting that acquirers are fully aware of the accrual-based techniques employed by takeover targets and can unveil such manipulation practices. These results are robust to alternative accrual and real earnings management proxies, as well as controlling for the method of payment in the deal.

Keywords: accrual earnings management, acquisition premium, real earnings management, takeover targets

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Authors: Nafe Moradkhani, Frederick Benaben, Benoit Montreuil, Ali Vatankhah Barenji, Dima Nazzal

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In the context of the global pandemic, the practical management of the 2020 presidential election in the USA was a strong concern. To anticipate and prepare for this election accurately, one of the main challenges was to confront (i) forecasts of voter turnout, (ii) capacities of the facilities and, (iii) potential configuration options of resources. The approach chosen to conduct this anticipative study consists of collecting data about forecasts and using simulation models to work simultaneously on resource allocation and facility configuration of polling places in Fulton County, Georgia’s largest county. A polling place is a dedicated facility where voters cast their ballots in elections using different devices. This article presents the results of the simulations of such places facing pre-identified potential risks. These results are oriented towards the efficiency of these places according to different criteria (health, trust, comfort). Then a dynamic framework is introduced to describe risks as physical forces perturbing the efficiency of the observed system. Finally, the main benefits and contributions resulting from this simulation campaign are presented.

Keywords: performance, decision support, simulation, artificial intelligence, risk management, election, pandemics, information system

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Authors: Surendar Vaddepalli

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Management education plays a crucial role to enable industry to cope with emerging challenges. It has spread in the last fifteen-twenty years in India and gained popularity as it was aimed at imbibing versatility and multi-tasking abilities in student community. Several management institutions started looking at upgrading their competencies in terms of faculty, research and industry interaction. The competitive business environment has been one of the drivers that paved the way for growing demand for management graduates in the employment market. Industry expects their executives to be engaged in a constant learning process. The ever-increasing demand for managers has led to establish more management institutions; however, the growth was not in line with the expectations from the industry. While top Business Schools are continuously changing the contents and delivery methodologies, academic standards of most of the other Business Schools are not up to the mark and quality of service provided by these institutes has opened various issues for discussion. On this back ground it is important to address the concerns of Indian management education experiencing with time and we have to rethink about the management education and efforts should be made to create a dynamic environment. This paper ties to study the current trends and tries to find out need for value based management education in India to rejuvenate it.

Keywords: management education, management, value based management education, business school, India

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Authors: S. K. Appiah, E. N. Aidoo, D. Asamoah Owusu, M. W. Nuonabuor

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Urbanization remains one of the unique predominant factors which is linked to the destruction of urban environment and its associated cases of soil contamination by heavy metals through the natural and anthropogenic activities. These activities are important sources of toxic heavy metals such as arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), copper (Cu), iron (Fe), manganese (Mn), and lead (Pb), nickel (Ni) and zinc (Zn). Often, these heavy metals lead to increased levels in some areas due to the impact of atmospheric deposition caused by their proximity to industrial plants or the indiscriminately burning of substances. Information gathered on potentially hazardous levels of these heavy metals in soils leads to establish serious health and urban agriculture implications. However, characterization of spatial variations of soil contamination by heavy metals in Ghana is limited. Kumasi is a Metropolitan city in Ghana, West Africa and is challenged with the recent spate of deteriorating soil quality due to rapid economic development and other human activities such as “Galamsey”, illegal mining operations within the metropolis. The paper seeks to use both univariate and multivariate geostatistical techniques to assess the spatial distribution of heavy metals in soils and the potential risk associated with ingestion of sources of soil contamination in the Metropolis. Geostatistical tools have the ability to detect changes in correlation structure and how a good knowledge of the study area can help to explain the different scales of variation detected. To achieve this task, point referenced data on heavy metals measured from topsoil samples in a previous study, were collected at various locations. Linear models of regionalisation and coregionalisation were fitted to all experimental semivariograms to describe the spatial dependence between the topsoil heavy metals at different spatial scales, which led to ordinary kriging and cokriging at unsampled locations and production of risk maps of soil contamination by these heavy metals. Results obtained from both the univariate and multivariate semivariogram models showed strong spatial dependence with range of autocorrelations ranging from 100 to 300 meters. The risk maps produced show strong spatial heterogeneity for almost all the soil heavy metals with extremely risk of contamination found close to areas with commercial and industrial activities. Hence, ongoing pollution interventions should be geared towards these highly risk areas for efficient management of soil contamination to avert further pollution in the metropolis.

Keywords: coregionalization, heavy metals, multivariate geostatistical analysis, soil contamination, spatial distribution

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Authors: Chantal Hendriks, Harry Gibson, Anna Trett, Penny Hancock, Catherine Moyes

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The use of modern inputs for crop protection, such as insecticides, is strongly underestimated in Sub-Saharan Africa. Several studies measured toxic concentrations of insecticides in fruits, vegetables and fish that were cultivated in Sub-Saharan Africa. The use of agricultural insecticides has impact on human and environmental health, but it also has the potential to impact on insecticide resistance in malaria transmitting mosquitos. To analyse associations between historic use of agricultural insecticides and the distribution of insecticide resistance through space and time, the use and environmental fate of agricultural insecticides needs to be mapped through the same time period. However, data on the use and environmental fate of agricultural insecticides in Africa are limited and therefore risk maps on the spatiotemporal occurrence of agricultural insecticides are created using environmental data. Environmental data on crop density and crop type were used to select the areas that most likely receive insecticides. These areas were verified by a literature review and expert knowledge. Pesticide fate models were compared to select most dominant processes that are involved in the environmental fate of insecticides and that can be mapped at a continental scale. The selected processes include: surface runoff, erosion, infiltration, volatilization and the storing and filtering capacity of soils. The processes indicate the risk for insecticide accumulation in soil, water, sediment and air. A compilation of all available data for traces of insecticides in the environment was used to validate the maps. The risk maps can result in space and time specific measures that reduce the risk of insecticide exposure to non-target organisms.

Keywords: crop protection, pesticide fate, tropics, insecticide resistance

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Authors: Amani Waheed, Adel Mishriky, Rasha Farouk, Essam Abdallah, Sarah Hussein

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Background: Occupational stress plays a crucial role in professional drivers' health. They are exposed to high workloads, low physical activity, high demand and low decisions as well as poor lifestyle factors including poor diet, sedentary work, and smoking. Dyslipidemia is a well-established modifiable cardiovascular risk factor. Occupational stress and other forms of chronic stress have been associated with raised levels of atherogenic lipids. Although stress management has some evidence in improving lipid profile, the association between occupational stress and dyslipidemia is not clear. Objectives: To assess the relational between occupational stress and lipid profile among professional drivers. Methodology: A cross-sectional study conducted at a large company in Ismailia City, Egypt, where, 131 professional drivers divided into 44 car drivers, 43 bus drivers, and 44 truck drivers were eligible after applying exclusion criteria. Occupational stress index (OSI), non-occupational risk factors of dyslipidemia were assessed using interview structured questionnaire. Blood pressure, body mass index (BMI) and lipid profile were measured. Results: The mean of total OSI score was 79.98 ± 6.14. The total OSI score is highest among truck drivers (82.16 ± 4.62), then bus drivers (80.26 ± 6.02) and lowest among car drivers (77.55 ± 6.79) with statistically significant. Eighty percent had Dyslipidemia. The duration of driving hours per day, exposure to passive smoking and increased BMI were the risk factors. No statistical significance between Total OSI score and dyslipidemia. Using, logistic regression analysis, occupational stress, duration of driving hours per day, and BMI were positive significant predictors for dyslipidemia. Conclusion: Professional drivers are exposed to occupational stress. A high proportion of drivers have dyslipidemia. Total OSI score doesn't have statistically significant relation with dyslipidemia.

Keywords: body mass index, dyslipidaemia, occupational stress, professional drivers

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Authors: Ferhat Demir

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Even if strategic management is highly critical for all types of organizations, only a few maturity models have been proposed in business literature for the area of strategic management activities. This paper updates previous studies and presents a new conceptual model for assessing the maturity of strategic management in any organization. Strategic management maturity model (S-3M) is basically composed of 6 maturity levels with 7 dimensions. The biggest contribution of S-3M is to put innovation into agenda of strategic management. The main objective of this study is to propose a model to align innovation with business strategies. This paper suggests that innovation (breakthrough new products/services and business models) is the only way of creating sustainable growth and strategy studies cannot ignore this aspect. Maturity models should embrace innovation to respond dynamic business environment and rapidly changing customer behaviours.

Keywords: strategic management, innovation, business model, maturity model

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Authors: Szilvia Vincze, Zoltán Bács

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It has become increasingly important for institutions of higher education as well to use available resources as effectively as possible for the implementation of the institution’s strategic plans and, at the same time, to ensure a stable future. This is the responsibility of the management and administration of the institution. Having access to complete and comprehensive information is indispensable for making dynamic and well-founded decisions that consider the realization of objectives to be primary and that manage possibly emerging risks, etc. The present paper introduces the role of Management Information Systems (MIS) at the University of Debrecen, one of the largest institutions of higher education in Hungary, and also discusses the utilization of this and associated information systems in management functions.

Keywords: management information system (MIS), higher education, Hungary, strategy formulation

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Authors: Oksana Domkina

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According to the modern economic theory, human capital became one of the main production factors and the most promising direction of investment, as such investment provides opportunity of obtaining high and long-term economic and social effects. Informational technology (IT) sector is the representative of this new economy which is most dependent on human capital as the main competitive factor. So the question for this sector is not whether investment in development of personal should be made, but what are the most effective ways of executing it and who has to pay for the education: Worker, company or government. In this paper we examine the IT sector, describe the labor market of IT workers and its development, and analyze the risks that IT companies may face if they invest in the development of their workers and what factors influence it. The main problem and difficulty of quantitative estimation of risk of investment in human capital of a company and its forecasting is human factor. Human behavior is often unpredictable and complex, so it requires specific approaches and methods of assessment. To build a comprehensive method of estimation of the risk of investment in human capital of a company considering human factor, we decided to use the method of analytic hierarchy process (AHP), that initially was created and developed. We separated three main group of factors: Risks related to the worker, related to the company, and external factors. To receive data for our research, we conducted a survey among the HR departments of Ukrainian IT companies used them as experts for the AHP method. Received results showed that IT companies mostly invest in the development of their workers, although several hire only already qualified personnel. According to the results, the most significant risks are the risk of ineffective training and the risk of non-investment that are both related to the firm. The analysis of risk factors related to the employee showed that, the factors of personal reasons, motivation, and work performance have almost the same weights of importance. Regarding internal factors of the company, there is a high role of the factor of compensation and benefits, factors of interesting projects, team, and career opportunities. As for the external environment, one of the most dangerous factor of risk is competitor activities, meanwhile the political and economical situation factor also has a relatively high weight, which is easy to explain by the influence of severe crisis in Ukraine during 2014-2015. The presented method allows to take into consideration all main factors that affect the risk of investment in human capital of a company. This gives a base for further research in this field and allows for a creation of a practical framework for making decisions regarding the personnel development strategy and specific employees' development plans for the HR departments.

Keywords: risks, personnel development, investment in development, factors of risk, risk of investment in development, IT, analytic hierarchy process, AHP

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Authors: James Hilton Williams

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Recent tsunami events, including the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami, Japan, and the 2015 Illapel Tsunami, Chile, have highlighted the potential for tsunami impacts on the built environment. International research in the tsunami impacts domain has been largely focused toward impacts on buildings and casualty estimations, while only limited attention has been placed on the impacts on infrastructure which is critical for the recovery of impacted communities. New Zealand, with 75% of the population within 10 km of the coast, has a large amount of coastal infrastructure exposed to local, regional and distant tsunami sources. To effectively manage tsunami risk for New Zealand critical infrastructure, including energy, transportation, and communications, the vulnerability of infrastructure networks and components must first be determined. This research develops infrastructure asset vulnerability, functionality and repair- cost functions based on international post-event tsunami impact assessment data from technologically similar countries, including Japan and Chile, and adapts these to New Zealand. These functions are then utilized within a New Zealand based impact framework, allowing for cost benefit analyses, effective tsunami risk management strategies and mitigation options for exposed critical infrastructure to be determined, which can also be applied internationally.

Keywords: impact assessment, infrastructure, tsunami impacts, vulnerability functions

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Authors: Naser Kazemi Eilaki, Carolyn Ahmer, Ilona Heldal, Bjarne Christian Hagen

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Older people and people with disabilities are recognized as at-risk groups when it comes to egress and travel from hazard zone to safe places. One's disability can negatively influence her or his escape time, and this becomes even more important when people from this target group live alone. This research deals with the fire safety of mentioned people's buildings by means of probabilistic methods. For this purpose, fire safety is addressed by modeling the egress of our target group from a hazardous zone to a safe zone. A common type of detached house with a prevalent plan has been chosen for safety analysis, and a limit state function has been developed according to the time-line evacuation model, which is based on a two-zone and smoke development model. An analytical computer model (B-Risk) is used to consider smoke development. Since most of the involved parameters in the fire development model pose uncertainty, an appropriate probability distribution function has been considered for each one of the variables with indeterministic nature. To achieve safety and reliability for the at-risk groups, the fire safety index method has been chosen to define the probability of failure (causalities) and safety index (beta index). An improved harmony search meta-heuristic optimization algorithm has been used to define the beta index. Sensitivity analysis has been done to define the most important and effective parameters for the fire safety of the at-risk group. Results showed an area of openings and intervals to egress exits are more important in buildings, and the safety of people would improve with increasing dimensions of occupant space (building). Fire growth is more critical compared to other parameters in the home without a detector and fire distinguishing system, but in a home equipped with these facilities, it is less important. Type of disabilities has a great effect on the safety level of people who live in the same home layout, and people with visual impairment encounter more risk of capturing compared to visual and movement disabilities.

Keywords: fire safety, at-risk groups, zone model, egress time, uncertainty

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Authors: Mohammed Aljoma

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In this paper, a developed prototype for the scheduling of repetitive activities in height-rise buildings was presented. The activities that describe the behavior of the most of activities in multi-storey buildings are scheduled using the developed approach. The prototype combines three methods to attain the optimized planning. The methods include Critical Path Method (CPM), Gantt and Line of Balance (LOB). The developed prototype; POTER is used to schedule repetitive and non-repetitive activities with respect to all constraints that can be automatically generated using a generic database. The prototype uses the method of genetic algorithms for optimizing the planning process. As a result, this approach enables contracting organizations to evaluate various planning solutions that are calculated, tested and classified by POTER to attain an optimal time-cost equilibrium according to their own criteria of time or coast.

Keywords: planning scheduling, genetic algorithms, repetitive activity, construction management, planning, scheduling, risk management, project duration

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Authors: Amel Oueslati, Olfa Benouda

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New Value at Risk (VaR) estimation is proposed and investigated. The well-known two stages Garch-EVT approach uses conditional volatility to generate one step ahead forecasts of VaR. With daily data for twelve stocks that decompose the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index, this paper incorporates the volume in the first stage volatility estimation. Afterwards, the forecasting ability of this conditional volatility concerning the VaR estimation is compared to that of a basic volatility model without considering any trading component. The results are significant and bring out the importance of the trading volume in the VaR measure.

Keywords: Garch-EVT, value at risk, volume, volatility

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Authors: Alma Shehu, Majlinda Vasjari, Sonila Duka, Loreta Vallja, Nevila Broli

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Humans consume drinking water from several sources, including tap water, bottled water, natural springs, filtered tap water, etc. The quality of drinking water is crucial for human survival given the fact that the consumption of contaminated drinking water is related to many diseases and deaths all over the world. This study represents the investigation of the quality and health risks of different types of drinking waters being consumed by the population in Albania, arising from heavy metals content. Investigated water included industrialized water, tap water, and spring water. In total, 20 samples were analyzed for the content of Pb, Cd, Cr, Ni, Cu, Fe, Zn, Al, and Mn. Determination of each metal concentration in selected samples was conducted by atomic absorption spectroscopy method with electrothermal atomization, GFAAS. Water quality was evaluated by comparing the obtained metals concentrations with the recommended maximum limits, according to the European Directive (98/83/EC) and Guidelines for Drinking Water Quality (WHO, 2017). Metal Index (MI) was used to assess the overall water quality due to heavy metals content. Health risk assessment was conducted based on the recommendations of the USEPA (1996), human health risk assessment, via ingestion. Results of this investigation showed that Al, Ni, Fe, and Cu were the metals found in higher concentrations while Cd exhibited the lowest concentration. Among the analyzed metals, Al (one sample) and Ni (in five samples) exceeded the maximum allowed limit. Based on the pollution metal index, it was concluded that the overall quality of Glina bottled water can be considered as toxic to humans, while the quality of bottled water (Trebeshina) was classified as moderately toxic. Values of health risk quotient (HQ) varied between 1x10⁻⁶-1.3x10⁻¹, following the order Ni > Cd > Pb > Cu > Al > Fe > Zn > Mn. All the values were lower than 1, which suggests that the analyzed samples exhibit no health risk for humans.

Keywords: drinking water, health risk assessment, heavy metals, pollution index

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Authors: Meng-Huan Wu, Wei-Er Wang, Tsu-Nai Wang, Wei-Jian Hsu, Vincent Chin-Hung Chen

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Objective: Studies have reported a strong link between asthma and bipolar disorder. We conducted a 17-year community-based large cohort study to examine the relationship between asthma, early smoking initiation, and bipolar disorder during adolescence and early adulthood. Methods: A total of 162,766 participants aged 11–16 years were categorized into asthma and non-asthma groups at baseline and compared within the observation period. Covariates during late childhood or adolescence included parental education, cigarette smoking by family members of participants, and participant’s gender, age, alcohol consumption, smoking, and exercise habits. Data for urbanicity, prednisone use, allergic comorbidity, and Charlson comorbidity index were acquired from the National Health Insurance Research Database. The Cox proportional-hazards model was used to evaluate the association between asthma and bipolar disorder. Results: Our findings revealed that asthma increased the risk of bipolar disorder after adjustment for key confounders in the Cox proportional hazard regression model (adjusted HR: 1.31, 95% CI: 1.12-1.53). Hospitalizations or visits to the emergency department for asthma exhibited a dose–response effect on bipolar disorder (adjusted HR: 1.59, 95% CI: 1.22-2.06). Patients with asthma with onset before 20 years of age who smoked during late childhood or adolescence had the greatest risk for bipolar disorder (adjusted HR: 3.10, 95% CI: 1.29-7.44). Conclusions: Patients newly diagnosed with asthma had a 1.3 times higher risk of developing bipolar disorder. Smoking during late childhood or adolescence increases the risk of developing bipolar disorder in patients with asthma.

Keywords: adolescence, asthma, smoking, bipolar disorder, early adulthood

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Authors: Vladyslav Povoroznyuk, Tetiana Orlуk, Nataliia Dzerovych

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Introduction: Back pain is an extremely common health care problem worldwide. Many studies show a link between an obesity and risk of lower back pain. The aim is to study correlation and peculiarities of vertebral pain in women of different age depending on their anthropometric indicators. Materials: 1886 women aged 25-89 years were examined. The patients were divided into groups according to age (25-44, 45-59, 60-74, 75-89 years old) and body mass index (BMI: to 18.4 kg/m2 (underweight), 18.5-24.9 kg/m2 (normal), 25-30 kg/m2 (overweight) and more than 30.1 kg/m2 (obese). Methods: The presence and intensity of pain was evaluated in the thoracic and lumbar spine using a visual analogue scale (VAS). BMI is calculated by the standard formula based on body weight and height measurements. Statistical analysis was performed using parametric and nonparametric methods. Significant changes were considered as p <0.05. Results: The intensity of pain in the thoracic spine was significantly higher in the underweight women in the age groups of 25-44 years (p = 0.04) and 60-74 years (p=0.005). The intensity of pain in the lumbar spine was significantly higher in the women of 45-59 years (p = 0.001) and 60-74 years (p = 0.0003) with obesity. In the women of 45-74 years BMI was significantly positively correlated with the level of pain in the lumbar spine. Obesity significantly increases the relative risk of pain in the lumbar region (RR=0.07 (95% CI: 1.03-1.12; p=0.002)), while underweight significantly increases the risk of pain in the thoracic region (RR=1.21 (95% CI: 1.00-1.46; p=0.05)). Conclusion: In women, vertebral pain syndrome may be related to the anthropometric characteristics (e.g., BMI). Underweight may indirectly influence the development of pain in the thoracic spine and increase the risk of pain in this part by 1.21 times. Obesity influences the development of pain in the lumbar spine increasing the risk by 1.07 times.

Keywords: body mass index, age, pain in thoracic and lumbar spine, women

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Authors: Zeleke Ayalew Alemu

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Indian Ocean and the Nile River play significant roles in shaping the hydrological and ecological systems of the regions they traverse. This study explores the interlinkages and impacts of the Indian Ocean on the Nile River, highlighting key factors such as water flow, nutrient distribution, climate patterns, and biodiversity. The Indian Ocean serves as a major source of moisture for the Nile River, contributing to its annual flood cycle and sustaining the river's ecosystem. The Indian Ocean's monsoon winds influence the amount of rainfall received in East Africa, which directly impacts the Nile's water levels. These monsoonal patterns create a vital connection between the Indian Ocean and the Nile, affecting agricultural productivity, freshwater availability, and overall river health. The Indian Ocean also influences the nutrient levels in the Nile River. Coastal upwelling driven by oceanic currents brings nutrient-rich waters from the depths of the ocean to the surface. These nutrients are transported by ocean currents towards the Red Sea and subsequently enter the Nile. This influx of nutrients supports the growth of plankton, which forms the basis of the river's food web and sustains various aquatic species. Additionally, the Indian Ocean's climate patterns, such as El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole events, exert influence on the Nile River basin. El Niño, for example, can result in drought conditions, reduced precipitation, and altered river flows, impacting agricultural activities and water resource management along the Nile. The Indian Ocean Dipole events can influence the rainfall distribution in East Africa, further impacting the Nile's water levels and ecosystem dynamics. The Indian Ocean's biodiversity is interconnected with the Nile River's ecological system. Many species that inhabit the Indian Ocean, such as migratory birds and marine mammals, migrate along the Nile River basin, utilizing its resources for feeding and breeding purposes. The health of the Indian Ocean's ecosystem thus indirectly affects the biodiversity and ecological balance of the Nile River. Indian Ocean plays a crucial role in shaping the dynamics of the Nile River. Its influence on water flow, nutrient distribution, climate patterns, and biodiversity highlights the complex interdependencies between these two important water bodies. Understanding the interconnectedness and impacts of the Indian Ocean on the Nile is essential for effective water resource management and conservation efforts in the region.

Keywords: water, management, environment, planning

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Authors: Eftekhari M. H., Mozaffari-Khosravi H., Shidfar F.

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Background: Many Iranian adolescent girls are iron deficient, but it is unclear whether the iron deficiency is associated with other nutritional risk indicators. Objective: we aimed to investigate the association between iron deficiency and weight status (measured as BMI) among a reprehensive sample of teenage girls. Methods: A cross-sectional study was performed in a region of southern I.R.Iran. One hundred eighty-seven iron-deficient participants (aged between 11 to 14) were selected by systematic random sampling among all students in grades 1 to 3 from high schools for girls. We assayed hemoglobin, hematocrit, serum ferritin, iron and total iron binding capacity and measured weight and height. Body mass index was calculated according to age and gender-specific BMI growth charts for children 2 to 20 years of age. Results: 13% were at risk for being overweight and 8.3% were overweight. The severity of iron deficiency increased as BMI increased from normal to at risk for overweight and overweight. Iron deficiency anemia was most prevalent among overweight adolescents than at risk for overweight and normal weight adolescents (28%, 18%, and 13%, respectively). Conclusions: The results of this study showed an inverse association of BMI with serum ferritin. Overweight adolescents demonstrated an increased prevalence of anemia. Because of the potentially harmful effects of iron deficiency, obese adolescents should be routinely screened and treated as necessary.

Keywords: adolescent, over weight, iron deficiency, Iran

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Authors: N. R. P Withana, E. Auch

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The purpose of this study was to investigate perceptions of climate change risk to forest ecosystems and forest-based communities as well as perceived effectiveness of adaptation strategies for climate change as well as challenges for adaptation. Data was gathered using a pre-tested semi-structured questionnaire. Simple random selection technique was applied. For the majority of issues, the responses were obtained on multi-point Likert scales, and the scores provided were, in turn, used to estimate the means and other useful estimates. A composite knowledge index developed using correct responses to a set of self-rated statements were used to evaluate the issues. The mean of the knowledge index was 0.64. Also all respondents recorded values of the knowledge index above 0.25. Increase forest fire was perceived by respondents as the greatest risk to forest eco-system. Decrease access to water supplies was perceived as the greatest risk to livelihoods of forest based communities. The most effective adaptation strategy relevant to climate change risks to forest eco-systems and forest based communities livelihoods in Kathmandu valley in Nepal as perceived by the respondents was reforestation and afforestation. As well, lack of public awareness was perceived as the major limitation for climate change adaptation. However, perceived risks as well as effective adaptation strategies showed an inconsistent association with knowledge indicators and social-cultural variables. The results provide useful information to any party who involve with climate change issues in Nepal, since such attempts would be more effective once the people’s perceptions on these aspects are taken into account.

Keywords: climate change, risk perceptions, forest ecosystems, forest-based communities

Procedia PDF Downloads 398