Search results for: accelerated failure time model

Authors: Ruth Shapira

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Introduction: The rapid urbanization of the last century confronts planners, regulatory bodies, developers and most of all the public with seemingly unsolved conflicts regarding values, capital, and wellbeing of the built and un-built urban space. There is an out of control change of scale of the urban form and of the rhythm of the urban life which has known no significant progress in the last 2-3 decades despite the on-growing urban population. It is the objective of this paper to analyze some of these fundamental issues through the case study of a relatively small town in the center of Israel (Kiryat-Ono, 36,000 inhabitants), unfold the deep structure of qualities versus disruptors, present some cure that we have developed to bridge over and humbly suggest a practice that may bring about a sustainable new urban environment based on timeless values of the past, an approach that can be generic for similar cases. Basic Methodologies:The object, the town of Kiryat Ono, shall be experimented upon in a series of four action processes: De-composition, Re-composition, the Centering process and, finally, Controlled Structural Disintegration. Each stage will be based on facts, analysis of previous multidisciplinary interventions on various layers – and the inevitable reaction of the OBJECT, leading to the conclusion based on innovative theoretical and practical methods that we have developed and that we believe are proper for the open ended network, setting the rules for the contemporary urban society to cluster by – thus – a new urban vocabulary based on the old structure of times passed. The Study: Kiryat Ono, was founded 70 years ago as an agricultural settlement and rapidly turned into an urban entity. In spite the massive intensification, the original DNA of the old small town was still deeply embedded, mostly in the quality of the public space and in the sense of clustered communities. In the past 20 years, the recent demand for housing has been addressed to on the national level with recent master plans and urban regeneration policies mostly encouraging individual economic initiatives. Unfortunately, due to the obsolete existing planning platform the present urban renewal is characterized by pressure of developers, a dramatic change in building scale and widespread disintegration of the existing urban and social tissue.Our office was commissioned to conceptualize two master plans for the two contradictory processes of Kiryat Ono’s future: intensification and conservation. Following a comprehensive investigation into the deep structures and qualities of the existing town, we developed a new vocabulary of conservation terms thus redefying the sense of PLACE. The main challenge was to create master plans that should offer a regulatory basis to the accelerated and sporadic development providing for the public good and preserving the characteristics of the place consisting of a tool box of design guidelines that will have the ability to reorganize space along the time axis in a sustainable way. In conclusion: The system of rules that we have developed can generate endless possible patterns making sure that at each implementation fragment an event is created, and a better place is revealed. It takes time and perseverance but it seems to be the way to provide a healthy and sustainable framework for the accelerated urbanization of our chaotic present.

Keywords: sustainable urban design, intensification, emergent urban patterns, sustainable housing, compact urban neighborhoods, sustainable regeneration, restoration, complexity, uncertainty, need for change, implications of legislation on local planning

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Authors: Hong-Ming Chen

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This work considers the resolution of the Hull and White interest rate model with the jump process. A deterministic process is adopted to model the random behavior of interest rate variation as deterministic perturbations, which is depending on the time t. The Brownian motion and jumps uncertainty are denoted as the integral functions piecewise constant function w(t) and point function θ(t). It shows that the interest rate function and the yield function of the Hull and White interest rate model with jump process can be obtained by solving a nonlinear semi-infinite programming problem. A relaxed cutting plane algorithm is then proposed for solving the resulting optimization problem. The method is calibrated for the U.S. treasury securities at 3-month data and is used to analyze several effects on interest rate prices, including interest rate variability, and the negative correlation between stock returns and interest rates. The numerical results illustrate that our approach essentially generates the yield functions with minimal fitting errors and small oscillation.

Keywords: optimization, interest rate model, jump process, deterministic

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Authors: V. Nikkhah Rashidabad, M. Manteghian, M. Masoumi, S. Mousavian, D. Ashouri

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In this research, the capability of neural networks in modeling and learning complicated and nonlinear relations has been used to develop a model for the prediction of changes in the diameter of bubbles in pool boiling distilled water. The input parameters used in the development of this network include element temperature, heat flux, and retention time of bubbles. The test data obtained from the experiment of the pool boiling of distilled water, and the measurement of the bubbles form on the cylindrical element. The model was developed based on training algorithm, which is typologically of back-propagation type. Considering the correlation coefficient obtained from this model is 0.9633. This shows that this model can be trusted for the simulation and modeling of the size of bubble and thermal transfer of boiling.

Keywords: bubble diameter, heat flux, neural network, training algorithm

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Authors: Wookyong Kwon, Sangmoon Lee

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In this paper, a sampled-data model predictive tracking control method is presented for mobile robots which is modeled as constrained continuous-time linear parameter varying (LPV) systems. The presented sampled-data predictive controller is designed by linear matrix inequality approach. Based on the input delay approach, a controller design condition is derived by constructing a new Lyapunov function. Finally, a numerical example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the presented method.

Keywords: model predictive control, sampled-data control, linear parameter varying systems, LPV

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Authors: Muleya Nqobile, Winston Garira

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We presented a compartmental deterministic multi-scale model which encompass internal plant defensive mechanism and pathogen interaction, then we consider nesting the model into the epidemiological model. The objective was to improve our understanding of the transmission dynamics of within host and between host of Guignardia citricapa Kiely. The inflow of infected class was scaled down to individual level while the outflow was scaled up to average population level. Conceptual model and mathematical model were constructed to display a theoretical framework which can be used for predicting or identify disease pattern.

Keywords: epidemiological model, mathematical modelling, multi-scale modelling, immunological model

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Authors: William Albeiro Alvarez, Gloria Patricia Jaramillo, Ivan Reinaldo Sarmiento

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Understanding the behavior of individuals and the different human factors that influence the choice when faced with a complex system such as transportation is one of the most complicated aspects of measuring in the components that constitute the modeling of route choice due to that various behaviors and driving mode directly or indirectly affect the choice. During the last two decades, with the development of information and communications technologies, new data collection techniques have emerged such as GPS, geolocation with mobile phones, apps for choosing the route between origin and destination, individual service transport applications among others, where an interest has been generated to improve discrete choice models when considering the incorporation of these developments as well as psychological factors that affect decision making. This paper implements a discrete choice model that proposes and estimates a hybrid model that integrates route choice models and latent variables based on the observation on the route of a sample of public taxi drivers from the city of Medellín, Colombia in relation to its behavior, personality, socioeconomic characteristics, and driving mode. The set of choice options includes the routes generated by the individual service transport applications versus the driver's choice. The hybrid model consists of measurement equations that relate latent variables with measurement indicators and utilities with choice indicators along with structural equations that link the observable characteristics of drivers with latent variables and explanatory variables with utilities.

Keywords: behavior choice model, human factors, hybrid model, real time data

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Authors: Jemai Rabeb, Benhmidene Ali, Hidouri Khaoula, Chaouachi Bechir

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The diffusion-absorption refrigeration cycle consists of a generator bubble pump, an absorber, an evaporator and a condenser, and usually operates with ammonia/water/ hydrogen or helium as the working fluid. The aim of this paper is to study the stability problem a bubble pump. In fact instability can caused a reduction of bubble pump efficiency. To achieve this goal, we have simulated the behaviour of two-phase flow in a bubble pump by using a drift flow model. Equations of a drift flow model are formulated in the transitional regime, non-adiabatic condition and thermodynamic equilibrium between the liquid and vapour phases. Equations resolution allowed to define void fraction, and liquid and vapour velocities, as well as pressure and mixing enthalpy. Ammonia-water mixing is used as working fluid, where ammonia mass fraction in the inlet is 0.6. Present simulation is conducted out for a heating flux of 2 kW/m² to 5 kW/m² and bubble pump tube length of 1 m and 2.5 mm of inner diameter. Simulation results reveal oscillations of vapour and liquid velocities along time. Oscillations decrease with time and with heat flux. For sufficient time the steady state is established, it is characterised by constant liquid velocity and void fraction values. However, vapour velocity does not have the same behaviour, it increases for steady state too. On the other hand, pressure drop oscillations are studied.

Keywords: bubble pump, drift flow model, instability, simulation

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Authors: Lucas Paganin, Viliam Makis

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With the advent of globalization, the market competition has become a major issue for most companies. One of the main strategies to overcome this situation is the quality improvement of the product at a lower cost to meet customers’ expectations. In order to achieve the desired quality of products, it is important to control the process to meet the specifications, and to implement the optimal maintenance policy for the machines and the production lines. Thus, the overall objective is to reduce process variation and the production and maintenance costs. In this paper, an integrated model involving Statistical Process Control (SPC) and maintenance is developed to achieve this goal. Therefore, the main focus of this paper is to develop the jointly optimal maintenance and statistical process control policy minimizing the total long run expected average cost per unit time. In our model, the production process can go out of control due to either the deterioration of equipment or other assignable causes. The equipment is also subject to failures in any of the operating states due to deterioration and aging. Hence, the process mean is controlled by an Xbar control chart using equidistant sampling epochs. We assume that the machine inspection epochs are the times when the control chart signals an out-of-control condition, considering both true and false alarms. At these times, the production process will be stopped, and an investigation will be conducted not only to determine whether it is a true or false alarm, but also to identify the causes of the true alarm, whether it was caused by the change in the machine setting, by other assignable causes, or by both. If the system is out of control, the proper actions will be taken to bring it back to the in-control state. At these epochs, a maintenance action can be taken, which can be no action, or preventive replacement of the unit. When the equipment is in the failure state, a corrective maintenance action is performed, which can be minimal repair or replacement of the machine and the process is brought to the in-control state. SMDP framework is used to formulate and solve the joint control problem. Numerical example is developed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the control policy.

Keywords: maintenance, semi-Markov decision process, statistical process control, Xbar control chart

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Authors: Lei Zhu, Nan Li

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Cold stamping has been widely applied in the automotive industry for the mass production of a great range of automotive panels. Predicting the springback to ensure the dimensional accuracy of the cold-stamped components is a critical step. The main approaches for the prediction and compensation of springback in cold stamping include running Finite Element (FE) simulations and conducting experiments, which require forming process expertise and can be time-consuming and expensive for the design of cold stamping tools. Machine learning technologies have been proven and successfully applied in learning complex system behaviours using presentative samples. These technologies exhibit the promising potential to be used as supporting design tools for metal forming technologies. This study, for the first time, presents a novel application of a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) based surrogate model to predict the springback fields for variable U-shape cold bending geometries. A dataset is created based on the U-shape cold bending geometries and the corresponding FE simulations results. The dataset is then applied to train the CNN surrogate model. The result shows that the surrogate model can achieve near indistinguishable full-field predictions in real-time when compared with the FE simulation results. The application of CNN in efficient springback prediction can be adopted in industrial settings to aid both conceptual and final component designs for designers without having manufacturing knowledge.

Keywords: springback, cold stamping, convolutional neural networks, machine learning

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Authors: Biao Ma, Jikai Liu, Man Chen, Jianpeng Wu, Liyong Wang, Changsong Zheng

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Proposing an appropriate control strategy is an effective and practical way to address the overheat problems of the wet multi-plate clutch in Direct Shift Gearbox under the long-time creeping condition. To do so, the temperature variation of the wet multi-plate clutch is investigated firstly by establishing a thermal resistance model for the gearbox cooling system. To calculate the generated heat flux and predict the clutch temperature precisely, the friction torque model is optimized by introducing an improved friction coefficient, which is related to the pressure, the relative speed and the temperature. After that, the heat transfer model and the reasonable friction torque model are employed by the vehicle powertrain model to construct a comprehensive co-simulation model for the Direct Shift Gearbox (DSG) vehicle. A creeping control strategy is then proposed and, to evaluate the vehicle performance, the safety temperature (250 ℃) is particularly adopted as an important metric. During the creeping process, the temperature of two clutches is always under the safety value (250 ℃), which demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy in avoiding the thermal failures of clutches.

Keywords: creeping control strategy, direct shift gearbox, temperature variation, wet clutch

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Authors: Taha Zakaraia Abdel Wahid

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In the present study, a development of the papers is introduced. The behavior of the unsteady non-equilibrium distribution functions for a rarefied gas mixture under the effect of non-linear thermal radiation field is presented. For the best of our knowledge this is done for the first time at all. The distinction and comparisons between the unsteady perturbed and the unsteady equilibrium velocity distribution functions are illustrated. The equilibrium time for the rarefied gas mixture is determined for the first time. The non-equilibrium thermodynamic properties of the system is investigated. The results are applied to the Argon-Neon binary gas mixture, for various values of both of molar fraction parameters and radiation field intensity. 3D-Graphics illustrating the calculated variables are drawn to predict their behavior and the results are discussed.

Keywords: radiation field, binary gas mixture, exact solutions, travelling wave method, unsteady BGK model, irreversible thermodynamics

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Authors: Aysegul Sarac

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The aim of this study is to analyze the impacts of integrating agile development principles and practices, in particular to reduce project lead time in a multi-project environment. We analyze Arçelik Washing Machine R&D Center in which multiple projects are conducted by shared resources. In the first part of the study, we illustrate the current waterfall model system by using a value stream map. We define all activities starting from the first idea of the project to the customer and measure process time and lead time of projects. In the second part of the study we estimate potential improvements and select a set of these improvements to integrate agile principles. We aim to develop a future state map and analyze the impacts of integrating lean principles on project lead time. The main contribution of this study is that we analyze and integrate agile product development principles in a real multi-project system.

Keywords: agile project management, multi project system, project lead time, product development

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Authors: L. Al Ahmad, C. Latrille, D. Hainos, D. Blanc, M. Clausse

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A two-dimensional finite volume axisymmetric model is developed to predict the simultaneous heat and mass transfers during the drying of industrial sludge. The simulations were run using COMSOL-Multiphysics 3.5a. The input parameters of the numerical model were acquired from a preliminary experimental work. Results permit to establish correlations describing the evolution of the various parameters as a function of the drying temperature and the sludge water content. The selection and coupling of the equation are validated based on the drying kinetics acquired experimentally at a temperature range of 45-65 °C and absolute pressure range of 200-1000 mbar. The model, incorporating the heat and mass transfer mechanisms at different operating conditions, shows simulated values of temperature and water content. Simulated results are found concordant with the experimental values, only at the first and last drying stages where sludge shrinkage is insignificant. Simulated and experimental results show that sludge drying is favored at high temperatures and low pressure. As experimentally observed, the drying time is reduced by 68% for drying at 65 °C compared to 45 °C under 1 atm. At 65 °C, a 200-mbar absolute pressure vacuum leads to an additional reduction in drying time estimated by 61%. However, the drying rate is underestimated in the intermediate stage. This rate underestimation could be improved in the model by considering the shrinkage phenomena that occurs during sludge drying.

Keywords: industrial sludge drying, heat transfer, mass transfer, mathematical modelling

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Authors: Ram Bikram Thapa, Ganesh Lama

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The Micro Hydro is one of the successful technology in Rural Nepal. Kavre is one of the pioneer district of sustainability of Micro Hydro Projects. A total of 30 Micro Hydro projects have been constructed with producing 700 KW of energy in northern side of the Kavre district. This study shows that 67% of projects have been affected by devastating earthquake in April and May, 2015. Out of them 23% are completely damaged. Most of the structures are failure like Penstock 71%, forebay 21%, powerhouse 7% have been completely damaged and 91% Canal & 44% Intake structures have been partially damaged by the earthquake. This paper empathizes that the engineering design is the vital component for sustainability of Micro Hydro Projects. This paper recommended that technicians should be considered the safety factor of earthquake and provision of disaster recovery fund during design of Micro Hydro Projects.

Keywords: micro hydro, earthquake, structural failure, sustainability

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Authors: Wei-Ju Huang, Hung-Pin Hsu

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[Background] In congestive heart failure (CHF), it has always been the principle of clinical treatment to control the water retention mechanism in the body to prevent excessive fluid retention. Early control of sympathetic nerves, Renin-Angiotensin-Aldosterone system (RAA system, RAAS), or strengthening of Atrial Natriuretic Peptide (ANP) was the point. In RAA system, related hormones, such as angiotensin, or enzymes in the pathway, such as ACE-I, can be used with corresponding inhibitors to reduce water content.[Aim] In recent years, clinical studies have pointed out that if different mechanisms are combined, the control effect seems to be better. For example, recent studies showed that ENTRESTO, a combination of Sacubitril and Valsartan, is a good new drug for CHF. Sacubitril is a prodrug. After activation, it can inhibit neprilysin and act as a neprilysin inhibitor (ARNI) to reduce the breakdown of natriuretic peptides(ANP). Valsartan is a kind of angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB), both of which are used to treat heart failure at the same time, have excellent curative effects.[Materials and Methods] Considering the side effects of this drug, coughing and a few cases of diarrhea were observed. However, the effect of this drug on the patient's intestinal tract has not been confirmed. On the other hand, studies have pointed out that ANP supplement can improve the CHF and increase the inhibitory effect on cancer cells. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to use a special microbial detection method to prove that whether oral drugs have an effect on microorganisms.The experimental method uses Nissui Compact Dry to observe the situation in different types of microorganisms. After the drug is dissolved in water, it is implanted in a petri dish, and the presence of different microorganisms is detected through different antibody reactions to confirm whether the drug has some toxicology in the gut.[Results and Discussion]From the above experimental results, it can be known that among the effects of Sacubitril and Valsartan on the basic microbial flora of the human body, low doses had no significant effect on Escherichia coli or intestinal bacteria. If Sacubitril or Valsartan with a high concentration of 3mg/ml is used alone or under the stimulation of a high concentration of the two drugs, it has a significant inhibitory effect on Escherichia coli. However, in terms of the effect on intestinal bacteria, high concentration of Sacubitril has a more significant inhibitory effect on intestinal bacteria, while high concentration of Valsartan has a less significant inhibitory effect on intestinal bacteria. The inhibitory effect of the combination of the two drugs on intestinal bacteria is also less significant.[Conclusion]The results of this study can be used as a further reference for the possible side effects of the clinical use of Sacubitril and Valsartan on the intestinal tract of patients,

Keywords: sacubitril, valsartan, entresto, congestive heart failure (CHF)

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Authors: Tomas Berhanu Bekele

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Traffic congestion is one of the main problems related to transportation in developed as well as developing countries. Traffic control systems are based on the idea of avoiding traffic instabilities and homogenizing traffic flow in such a way that the risk of accidents is minimized and traffic flow is maximized. Lately, Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) has become an important area of research to solve such road traffic-related issues for making smart decisions. It links people, roads and vehicles together using communication technologies to increase safety and mobility. Moreover, accurate prediction of road traffic is important to manage traffic congestion. The aim of this study is to develop an ANN model for the prediction of traffic flow and to compare the ANN model with the linear regression model of traffic flow predictions. Data extraction was carried out in intervals of 15 minutes from the video player. Video of mixed traffic flow was taken and then counted during office work in order to determine the traffic volume. Vehicles were classified into six categories, namely Car, Motorcycle, Minibus, mid-bus, Bus, and Truck vehicles. The average time taken by each vehicle type to travel the trap length was measured by time displayed on a video screen.

Keywords: intelligent transport system (ITS), traffic flow prediction, artificial neural network (ANN), linear regression

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Authors: Muhammad Ahnaf Zahin, Yaw Adu-Gyamfi

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Bus transit is a crucial component of transportation networks, especially in urban areas. Any intelligent transportation system must have accurate real-time information on bus travel times since it minimizes waiting times for passengers at different stations along a route, improves service reliability, and significantly optimizes travel patterns. Bus agencies must enhance the quality of their information service to serve their passengers better and draw in more travelers since people waiting at bus stops are frequently anxious about when the bus will arrive at their starting point and when it will reach their destination. For solving this issue, different models have been developed for predicting bus travel times recently, but most of them are focused on smaller road networks due to their relatively subpar performance in high-density urban areas on a vast network. This paper develops a deep learning-based architecture using a single-step multi-station forecasting approach to predict average bus travel times for numerous routes, stops, and trips on a large-scale network using heterogeneous bus transit data collected from the GTFS database. Over one week, data was gathered from multiple bus routes in Saint Louis, Missouri. In this study, Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) neural network was followed to predict the mean vehicle travel times for different hours of the day for multiple stations along multiple routes. Historical time steps and prediction horizon were set up to 5 and 1, respectively, which means that five hours of historical average travel time data were used to predict average travel time for the following hour. The spatial and temporal information and the historical average travel times were captured from the dataset for model input parameters. As adjacency matrices for the spatial input parameters, the station distances and sequence numbers were used, and the time of day (hour) was considered for the temporal inputs. Other inputs, including volatility information such as standard deviation and variance of journey durations, were also included in the model to make it more robust. The model's performance was evaluated based on a metric called mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The observed prediction errors for various routes, trips, and stations remained consistent throughout the day. The results showed that the developed model could predict travel times more accurately during peak traffic hours, having a MAPE of around 14%, and performed less accurately during the latter part of the day. In the context of a complicated transportation network in high-density urban areas, the model showed its applicability for real-time travel time prediction of public transportation and ensured the high quality of the predictions generated by the model.

Keywords: gated recurrent unit, mean absolute percentage error, single-step forecasting, travel time prediction.

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Authors: Naser Ebadati

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introductory statement: Drilling operations in oil wells often involve significant risks due to varying azimuths, slopes, and the passage through layers with different lithological properties. As a result, maintaining well stability is crucial. Instability in wells can lead to costly well losses, interrupted drilling operations, and halted production from reservoirs. Objective: One of the key challenges in drilling operations is ensuring the stability of the wellbore, particularly in loose and low-resistance formations. These factors make the analysis and evaluation of well stability essential. Therefore, building a geo mechanical model for a hydrocarbon field or reservoir requires both a stress field model and a mechanical properties model of the geological formations. Numerous studies have focused on analyzing the stability of well walls, an issue known as well instability. This study aims to analyze the stability and the safe mud weight window for drilling in one of the oil fields in southern Iran. Methodology: In wellbore stability analysis, it is essential to consider the stress field model, which includes values and directions of the three principal stresses, and the mechanical properties model, which covers elastic properties and rock fracture characteristics. Wellbore instability arises from mechanical failure of the rock. Well stability can be maintained by adjusting the drilling mud weight. This study investigates wellbore stability using field data. The lithological characteristics of the well mainly consist of limestone, dolomite, and shale, as determined from log data. Wellbore logging was conducted throughout the well to calculate the required drilling mud pressure using the Mohr-Coulomb criterion. Findings: The results indicate that the safe and stable drilling mud window ranges between 17.13 MPa and 27.80 MPa. By comparing and calculating induced stresses, it was determined that the wellbore wall primarily exhibits shear fractures in the form of wide shear fractures and tensile fractures in the form of radial tensile fractures.

Keywords: drilling mud weight, formation evaluation, sheer strees, safe window

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Authors: Rim Chang Hyon, Song Hak Jin, Song Kwang Hyok, Jong Ki Hun

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The calibration of the articulated arm coordinate measuring machine (AACMM) is key to improving calibration accuracy and saving calibration time. To reduce the time consumed for calibration, we should choose the proper calibration gauges and develop a reasonable calibration method. In addition, we should get the exact optimal solution by accurately removing the rough errors within the experimental data. In this paper, we present a calibration method of the portable coordinate measuring arm (PCMA) using the 1.2m long bar guage with cone-holes. First, we determine the locations of the bar gauge and establish an optimal objective function for identifying the structural parameter errors. Next, we make a mathematical model of the calibration algorithm and present a new mathematical method to remove the rough errors within calibration data. Finally, we find the optimal solution to identify the kinematic parameter errors by using Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. The experimental results show that our calibration method is very effective in saving the calibration time and improving the calibration accuracy.

Keywords: AACMM, kinematic model, parameter identify, measurement accuracy, calibration

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Authors: Sabyasachi Mukhopadhyay, Joseph Ogutu, Gundula Bartzke, Hans-Peter Piepho

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Rainfall is a critical component of climate governing vegetation growth and production, forage availability and quality for herbivores. However, reliable rainfall measurements are not always available, making it necessary to predict rainfall values for particular locations through time. Predicting rainfall in space and time can be a complex and challenging task, especially where the rain gauge network is sparse and measurements are not recorded consistently for all rain gauges, leading to many missing values. Here, we develop a flexible Bayesian model for predicting rainfall in space and time and apply it to Narok County, situated in southwestern Kenya, using data collected at 23 rain gauges from 1965 to 2015. Narok County encompasses the Maasai Mara ecosystem, the northern-most section of the Mara-Serengeti ecosystem, famous for its diverse and abundant large mammal populations and spectacular migration of enormous herds of wildebeest, zebra and Thomson's gazelle. The model incorporates geographical and meteorological predictor variables, including elevation, distance to Lake Victoria and minimum temperature. We assess the efficiency of the model by comparing it empirically with the established Gaussian process, Kriging, simple linear and Bayesian linear models. We use the model to predict total monthly rainfall and its standard error for all 5 * 5 km grid cells in Narok County. Using the Monte Carlo integration method, we estimate seasonal and annual rainfall and their standard errors for 29 sub-regions in Narok. Finally, we use the predicted rainfall to predict large herbivore biomass in the Maasai Mara ecosystem on a 5 * 5 km grid for both the wet and dry seasons. We show that herbivore biomass increases with rainfall in both seasons. The model can handle data from a sparse network of observations with many missing values and performs at least as well as or better than four established and widely used models, on the Narok data set. The model produces rainfall predictions consistent with expectation and in good agreement with the blended station and satellite rainfall values. The predictions are precise enough for most practical purposes. The model is very general and applicable to other variables besides rainfall.

Keywords: non-stationary covariance function, gaussian process, ungulate biomass, MCMC, maasai mara ecosystem

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Authors: Hahido Samaras

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In many cases, especially with the pandemic playing a major role in fast-tracking the growth of the digital industry, online learning has become a necessity or even a standard educational model nowadays, reliably overcoming barriers such as location, time and cost and frequently combined with a face-to-face format (e.g., in blended learning). This being the case, it is evident that students in many parts of the world, as well as their parents, will increasingly need to become aware of the pros and cons of online versus traditional courses. This fast-growing mode of learning, accelerated during the years of the pandemic, presents an abundance of exciting options especially matched for a large number of secondary school students in remote places of the world where access to stimulating educational settings and opportunities for a variety of learning alternatives are scarce, adding advantages such as flexibility, affordability, engagement, flow and personalization of the learning experience. However, online learning can also present several challenges, such as a lack of student motivation and social interactions in natural settings, digital literacy, and technical issues, to name a few. Therefore, educational researchers will need to conduct further studies focusing on the benefits and weaknesses of online learning vs. traditional learning, while instructional designers propose ways of enhancing student motivation and engagement in virtual environments. Similarly, teachers will be required to become more and more technology-capable, at the same time developing their knowledge about their students’ particular characteristics and needs so as to match them with the affordances the technology offers. And, of course, schools, education programs, and policymakers will have to invest in powerful tools and advanced courses for online instruction. By developing digital courses that incorporate intentional opportunities for community-building and interaction in the learning environment, as well as taking care to include built-in design principles and strategies that align learning outcomes with learning assignments, activities, and assessment practices, rewarding academic experiences can derive for all students. This paper raises various issues regarding the effectiveness of online learning on students by reviewing a large number of research studies related to the usefulness and impact of online learning following the COVID-19-induced digital education shift. It also discusses what students, teachers, decision-makers, and parents have reported about this mode of learning to date. Best practices are proposed for parties involved in the development of online learning materials, particularly for secondary school students, as there is a need for educators and developers to be increasingly concerned about the impact of virtual learning environments on student learning and wellbeing.

Keywords: blended learning, online learning, secondary schools, virtual environments

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Authors: Malleshappa Japagal, Srinivas Chitragar

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The use of waste plastic in pavement is becoming important alternative worldwide for disposal of plastic as well as to improve the stability of pavement and to meet out environmental issues. However, there are still concerns on fatigue and fracture resistance of Hot Mix Asphalt with the addition of plastic waste, (HMA-Plastic mixes) and moisture damage potential. The present study was undertaken to evaluate fracture resistance of HMA-Plastic mixes using semi-circular bending (SCB) test and moisture damage potential by Indirect Tensile strength (ITS) test using retained tensile strength (TSR). In this study, a dense graded asphalt mix with 19 mm nominal maximum aggregate size was designed in the laboratory using Marshall Mix design method. Aggregates were coated with different percentages of waste plastic (0%, 2%, 3% and 4%) by weight of aggregate and performance evaluation of fracture resistance and Moisture damage was carried out. The following parameters were estimated for the mixes: J-Integral or Jc, strain energy at failure, peak load at failure, and deformation at failure. It was found that the strain energy and peak load of all the mixes decrease with an increase in notch depth, indicating that increased percentage of plastic waste gave better fracture resistance. The moisture damage potential was evaluated by Tensile strength ratio (TSR). The experimental results shown increased TRS value up to 3% addition of waste plastic in HMA mix which gives better performance hence the use of waste plastic in road construction is favorable.

Keywords: hot mix asphalt, semi circular bending, marshall mix design, tensile strength ratio

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Authors: Mariem Kchaou, Wiem Khlif, Faiez Gargouri

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Modeling business processes is an essential task when evaluating, improving, or documenting existing business processes. To be efficient in such tasks, a business process model (BPM) must have high structural quality and high performance. Evidently, evaluating the performance of a business process model is a necessary step to reduce time, cost, while assessing the structural quality aims to improve the understandability and the modifiability of the BPMN model. To achieve these objectives, a set of structural and performance measures have been proposed. Since the diversity of measures, we propose a framework that integrates both structural and performance aspects for classifying them. Our measure classification is based on business process model perspectives (e.g., informational, functional, organizational, behavioral, and temporal), and the elements (activity, event, actor, etc.) involved in computing the measures. Then, we implement this framework in a tool assisting the structural quality and the performance of a business process. The tool helps the designers to select an appropriate subset of measures associated with the corresponding perspective and to calculate and interpret their values in order to improve the structural quality and the performance of the model.

Keywords: performance, structural quality, perspectives, tool, classification framework, measures

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Authors: Sujayeva V. A., Karpova I. S., Koslataya O. V., Kolyadko M. G., Russkikh I. I., Vankovich E. A.

Abstract:

Objective: The goal of this study is to develop a method for the prevention of the progression of heart failure (HF) in patients with post-infarction cardiosclerosis who have suffered coronavirus infection. Methods: 135 patients with post-infarction cardiosclerosis were divided into 2 groups: Group I - patients who had suffered COVID-19 - 85 people, and Group II - patients who had not suffered COVID-19 - 50 people. Patients of group I, depending on the level of N-terminal fragment of natriuretic peptide (NTproBNP), were divided into 2 subgroups - subgroup A - with HF - 40 people, subgroup B - without HF - 45 people. All patients underwent a clinical examination, echocardiography, electrocardiotopography in 60 leads, computed angiography of the coronary arteries, heart magnetic resonance imaging, NTproBNP. Results: In the post-Covid period, in patients with post-infarction cardiosclerosis, remodeling of the left ventricle and right parts of the heart, deterioration of the systolic-diastolic function of both ventricles, increased pressure in the pulmonary artery, progression of coronary artery atherosclerosis, and an increase in the size of myocardial fibrosis were revealed. The consequence of these changes was the progression of heart failure. The developed method of medical prevention made it possible to improve the clinical course of coronary artery disease and prevent the progression of chronic heart failure in patients with post-infarction cardiosclerosis. Conclusions: In patients with post-infarction cardiosclerosis who initially had HF, after 1 year, according to laboratory and instrumental data, a slight decrease in its severity was revealed. In patients with post-infarction cardiosclerosis who did not have HF before COVID-19, HF developed 1 year after the coronavirus disease, which may be due to the identified process of myocardial fibrosis, which dictates the need to prevent the development of HF in patients with post-infarction cardiosclerosis, even those who did not initially have HF. The proposed method of medical prevention made it possible to improve the clinical course of coronary artery disease in patients with post-infarction cardiosclerosis after COVID-19, both in persons with and without HF, when included in the study. A method of medical prevention in people with post-infarction cardiosclerosis after COVID-19 infection, including spironolactone, loop diuretics, empagliflozin, sacubitril/valsartan, helped prevent the progression of HF.

Keywords: elderly, myocardial infarction, COVID-19, prevention

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Authors: N. C. Sarkar, A. Bhaskar, Z. Zheng

Abstract:

The driving behavior in area-based (i.e., non-lane based) traffic is induced by the presence of other individuals in the choice space from the driver’s visual perception area. The driving behavior of a subject vehicle is constrained by the potential leaders and leaders are frequently changed over time. This paper is to determine a stochastic model for a parameter of modified intelligent driver model (MIDM) in area-based traffic (as in developing countries). The parametric and non-parametric distributions are presented to fit the parameters of MIDM. The goodness of fit for each parameter is measured in two different ways such as graphically and statistically. The quantile-quantile (Q-Q) plot is used for a graphical representation of a theoretical distribution to model a parameter and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test is used for a statistical measure of fitness for a parameter with a theoretical distribution. The distributions are performed on a set of estimated parameters of MIDM. The parameters are estimated on the real vehicle trajectory data from India. The fitness of each parameter with a stochastic model is well represented. The results support the applicability of the proposed modeling for parameters of MIDM in area-based traffic flow simulation.

Keywords: area-based traffic, car-following model, micro-simulation, stochastic modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 147

Authors: Jaouadi Imen, Ben Djemaa Raoudha, Ben Abdallah Hanene

Abstract:

The access to relevant information that is adapted to users’ needs, preferences and environment is a challenge in many applications running. That causes an appearance of context-aware systems. To facilitate the development of this class of applications, it is necessary that these applications share a common context meta-model. In this article, we will present our context meta-model that is defined using the OMG Meta Object facility (MOF). This meta-model is based on the analysis and synthesis of context concepts proposed in literature.

Keywords: context, meta-model, MOF, awareness system

Procedia PDF Downloads 561

Authors: W. I. Mazyan, A. Ahmadi, M. Hoorfar

Abstract:

Objectives/Scope: This paper proposes a mathematical model for calculating the solid-gas separation efficiency in cyclones. This model provides better agreement with experimental results compared to existing mathematical models. Methods: The separation ratio efficiency, ϵsp, is evaluated by calculating the outlet to inlet count ratio. Similar to mathematical derivations in the literature, the inlet and outlet particle count were evaluated based on Eulerian approach. The model also includes the external forces acting on the particle (i.e., centrifugal and drag forces). In addition, the proposed model evaluates the exact length that the particle travels inside the cyclone for the evaluation of number of turns inside the cyclone. The separation efficiency model derivation using Stoke’s law considers the effect of the inlet tangential velocity on the separation performance. In cyclones, the inlet velocity is a very important factor in determining the performance of the cyclone separation. Therefore, the proposed model provides accurate estimation of actual cyclone separation efficiency. Results/Observations/Conclusion: The separation ratio efficiency, ϵsp, is studied to evaluate the performance of the cyclone for particles ranging from 1 microns to 10 microns. The proposed model is compared with the results in the literature. It is shown that the proposed mathematical model indicates an error of 7% between its efficiency and the efficiency obtained from the experimental results for 1 micron particles. At the same time, the proposed model gives the user the flexibility to analyze the separation efficiency at different inlet velocities. Additive Information: The proposed model determines the separation efficiency accurately and could also be used to optimize the separation efficiency of cyclones at low cost through trial and error testing, through dimensional changes to enhance separation and through increasing the particle centrifugal forces. Ultimately, the proposed model provides a powerful tool to optimize and enhance existing cyclones at low cost.

Keywords: cyclone efficiency, solid-gas separation, mathematical model, models error comparison

Procedia PDF Downloads 392

Authors: A. Rahaf, S. Liyakathunsia

Abstract:

In today’s world, unprecedented operational pressure is faced by banks that test the efficiency, effectiveness, and agility of their business processes. In a typical banking process, a person’s authorization is usually based on his signature on most all of the transactions. Signature verification is considered as one of the highly significant information needed for any bank document processing. Banks usually use Signature Verification to authenticate the identity of individuals. In this paper, a business process model has been proposed in order to increase the quality of the verification process and to reduce time and needed resources. In order to understand the current process, a survey has been conducted and distributed among bank employees. After analyzing the survey, a process model has been created using Bizagi modeler which helps in simulating the process after assigning time and cost of it. The outcomes show that the automation of signature verification process is highly recommended for a banking business process.

Keywords: business process management, process modeling, quality, Signature Verification

Procedia PDF Downloads 427

Authors: M. Pilar Valles-gonzalez, Alejandro Gonzalez Meije, Ana Pastor Muro, Maria Garcia-Martinez, Beatriz Gonzalez Caballero

Abstract:

This paper studies a failure case of a fuel pressure supply tube from an aircraft engine. Multiple fracture cases of the fuel pressure control tube from aircraft engines have been reported. The studied set was composed of the mentioned tube, a welded connecting pipe, where the fracture has been produced, and a union nut. The fracture has been produced in one most critical zones of the tube, in a region next to the supporting body of the union nut to the connector. The tube material was X6CrNiTi18-10, an austenitic stainless steel. Chemical composition was determined using an X-Ray fluorescence spectrometer (XRF) and combustion equipment. Furthermore, the material has been mechanical, by hardness test, and microstructural characterized using a stereomicroscope and an optical microscope. The results confirmed that it is within specifications. To determine the macrofractographic features, a visual examination and a stereo microscope of the tube fracture surface have been carried out. The results revealed a tube plastic macrodeformation, surface damaged, and signs of a possible corrosion process. Fracture surface was also inspected by scanning electron microscopy (FE-SEM), equipped with a microanalysis system by X-ray dispersive energy (EDX), to determine the microfractographic features in order to find out the failure mechanism involved in the fracture. Fatigue striations, which are typical from a progressive fracture by a fatigue mechanism, have been observed. The origin of the fracture has been placed in defects located on the outer wall of the tube, leading to a final overload fracture.

Keywords: aircraft engine, fatigue, FE-SEM, fractography, fracture, fuel tube, microstructure, stainless steel

Procedia PDF Downloads 155

Authors: Pascal Mwenge, Tumisang Seodigeng

Abstract:

The combination of world population and the third industrial revolution led to high demand for fuels. On the other hand, the decrease of global fossil 8fuels deposits and the environmental air pollution caused by these fuels has compounded the challenges the world faces due to its need for energy. Therefore, new forms of environmentally friendly and renewable fuels such as biodiesel are needed. The primary analytical techniques for methanolysis yield monitoring have been chromatography and spectroscopy, these methods have been proven reliable but are more demanding, costly and do not provide real-time monitoring. In this work, the in situ monitoring of biodiesel from sunflower oil using FTIR (Fourier Transform Infrared) has been studied; the study was performed using EasyMax Mettler Toledo reactor equipped with a DiComp (Diamond) probe. The quantitative monitoring of methanolysis was performed by building a quantitative model with multivariate calibration using iC Quant module from iC IR 7.0 software. 15 samples of known concentrations were used for the modelling which were taken in duplicate for model calibration and cross-validation, data were pre-processed using mean centering and variance scale, spectrum math square root and solvent subtraction. These pre-processing methods improved the performance indexes from 7.98 to 0.0096, 11.2 to 3.41, 6.32 to 2.72, 0.9416 to 0.9999, RMSEC, RMSECV, RMSEP and R2Cum, respectively. The R² value of 1 (training), 0.9918 (test), 0.9946 (cross-validation) indicated the fitness of the model built. The model was tested against univariate model; small discrepancies were observed at low concentration due to unmodelled intermediates but were quite close at concentrations above 18%. The software eliminated the complexity of the Partial Least Square (PLS) chemometrics. It was concluded that the model obtained could be used to monitor methanol of sunflower oil at industrial and lab scale.

Keywords: biodiesel, calibration, chemometrics, methanolysis, multivariate analysis, transesterification, FTIR

Procedia PDF Downloads 148