Search results for: rational ball curve
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1754

Search results for: rational ball curve

464 Deliberative Democracy: As an Approach for Analyzing Gezi Movement Public Forums

Authors: Çisem Gündüz Arabacı

Abstract:

Deliberation has been seen one of the most important components of democratic ideals especially since liberal democratic attributions have been under fire. Deliberative democracy advocates that people should participate in collective decision-making processes by other mechanisms rather than conventional ones in order to reach legitimate decisions. Deliberative democratic theory makes emphasis on deliberative communication between people and encourages them not to merely express their political opinions (through surveys and referendum) but to form those opinions through public debates. This paper focuses on deliberative democratic visions of Gezi Park Public Forums by taking deliberative democracy as theoretical basis and examining Gezi Park Public Forums in the light of core elements of deliberative democracy. Gezi Movement started on 28 May 2013 in İstanbul as a reaction to local government's revision plans for Taksim Gezi Park, spread throughout the country and created new zones in public sphere which are called Public Park Forums. During the summer of 2013, especially in İstanbul but also in other cities, people gathered in public parks, discussed and took collective decisions concerning actions which they will take. It is worth to mention that since 3 and half years some Public Park Forums are still continuing their meetings regularly in city of İzmir. This paper analyzes four 'Public Park Forums' in İzmir which are called Bornova Public Forum; Karşıyaka Public Forum, Foça Public Forum and Güzelyalı Public Forum. These Forums are under investigation in terms of their understanding of democracy and the values that support that understanding. Participant observation and in-depth interview methods are being used as research methods. Core element of deliberative democracy are being collected under three main category: common interest versus private interest, membership, rational argument and these values are being questioning within one of each Forum in order to draw an overall picture and also make comparison between them. Discourse analysis is being used in order to examine empirical data and paper aims to reveal how participants of public forums perceive deliberative democratic values and whether they give weight to these values.

Keywords: deliberative democracy, Gezi Park movement, public forums, social movement

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463 The Presence of Investor Overconfidence in the South African Exchange Traded Fund Market

Authors: Damien Kunjal, Faeezah Peerbhai

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Despite the increasing popularity of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), ETF investment choices may not always be rational. Excess trading volume, misevaluations of securities, and excess return volatility present in financial markets can be attributed to the influence of the overconfidence bias. Whilst previous research has explored the overconfidence bias in stock markets; this study focuses on trading in ETF markets. Therefore, the objective of this study is to investigate the presence of investor overconfidence in the South African ETF market. Using vector autoregressive models, the lead-lag relationship between market turnover and the market return is examined for the market of South African ETFs tracking domestic benchmarks and for the market of South African ETFs tracking international benchmarks over the period November 2000 till August 2019. Consistent with the overconfidence hypothesis, a positive relationship between current market turnover and lagged market return is found for both markets, even after controlling for market volatility and cross-sectional dispersion. This relationship holds for both market and individual ETF turnover suggesting that investors are overconfident when trading in South African ETFs tracking domestic benchmarks and South African ETFs tracking international benchmarks since trading activity depends on past market returns. Additionally, using the global recession as a structural break, this study finds that investor overconfidence is more pronounced after the global recession suggesting that investors perceive ETFs as risk-reducing assets due to their diversification benefits. Overall, the results of this study indicate that the overconfidence bias has a significant influence on ETF investment choices, therefore, suggesting that the South African ETF market is inefficient since investors’ decisions are based on their biases. As a result, the effect of investor overconfidence can account for the difference between the fair value of ETFs and its current market price. This finding has implications for policymakers whose responsibility is to promote the efficiency of the South African ETF market as well as ETF investors and traders who trade in the South African ETF market.

Keywords: exchange-traded fund, market return, market turnover, overconfidence, trading activity

Procedia PDF Downloads 151
462 Big Data in Telecom Industry: Effective Predictive Techniques on Call Detail Records

Authors: Sara ElElimy, Samir Moustafa

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Mobile network operators start to face many challenges in the digital era, especially with high demands from customers. Since mobile network operators are considered a source of big data, traditional techniques are not effective with new era of big data, Internet of things (IoT) and 5G; as a result, handling effectively different big datasets becomes a vital task for operators with the continuous growth of data and moving from long term evolution (LTE) to 5G. So, there is an urgent need for effective Big data analytics to predict future demands, traffic, and network performance to full fill the requirements of the fifth generation of mobile network technology. In this paper, we introduce data science techniques using machine learning and deep learning algorithms: the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), Bayesian-based curve fitting, and recurrent neural network (RNN) are employed for a data-driven application to mobile network operators. The main framework included in models are identification parameters of each model, estimation, prediction, and final data-driven application of this prediction from business and network performance applications. These models are applied to Telecom Italia Big Data challenge call detail records (CDRs) datasets. The performance of these models is found out using a specific well-known evaluation criteria shows that ARIMA (machine learning-based model) is more accurate as a predictive model in such a dataset than the RNN (deep learning model).

Keywords: big data analytics, machine learning, CDRs, 5G

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461 A Study of the Frequency of Individual Support for the Pupils With Developmental Disabilities or Suspected Developmental Disabilities in Regular Japanese School Classes - From a Questionnaire Survey of Teachers

Authors: Maho Komura

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The purpose of this study was to determine from a questionnaire survey of teachers the status of implementation of individualized support for the pupils with suspected developmental disabilities in regular elementary school classes in Japan. In inclusive education, the goal is for all pupils to learn in the same place as much as possible by receiving the individualized support they need. However, in the Japanese school culture, strong "homogeneity" sometimes surfaces, and it is pointed out that it is difficult to provide individualized support from the viewpoint of formal equality. Therefore, we decided to conduct this study in order to examine whether there is a difference in the frequency of implementation depending on the content of individualized support and to consider the direction of future individualized support. The subjects of the survey were 196 public elementary school teachers who had been in charge of regular classes within the past five years. In the survey, individualized support was defined as individualized consideration including rational consideration, and did not include support for the entire class or all pupils enrolled in the class (e.g., reducing the amount of homework for pupils who have trouble learning, changing classroom rules, etc.). (e.g., reducing the amount of homework for pupils with learning difficulties, allowing pupils with behavioral concerns to use the library or infirmary when they are unstable). The respondents were asked to choose one answer from four options, ranging from "very much" to "not at all," regarding the degree to which they implemented the nine individual support items that were set up with reference to previous studies. As a result, it became clear that the majority of teachers had pupils with developmental disabilities or pupils who require consideration in terms of learning and behavior, and that the majority of teachers had experience in providing individualized support to these pupils. Investigating the content of the individualized support that had been implemented, it became clear that the frequency with which it was implemented varied depending on the individualized support. Individualized support that allowed pupils to perform the same learning tasks was implemented more frequently, but individualized support that allowed different learning tasks or use of places other than the classroom was implemented less frequently. It was suggested that flexible support methods tailored to each pupil may not have been considered.

Keywords: inclusive education, ndividualized support, regular class, elementary school

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460 Transdermal Therapeutic System of Lercanıdipine Hydrochloride: Fabrication and in Vivo Evaluation

Authors: Jiji Jose, R. Narayanacharyulu, Molly Mathew, Jisha Prems

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Introduction: Lercanidipine hydrochloride (LD), an effective calcium channel blocker, widely used for the treatment of chronic stable angina and hypertension seems to be potential transdermal therapeutic system candidate, mainly due to its low oral bio availability, short half life and high first-pass metabolism. Objective: To develop transdermal therapeutic systems for LD and to evaluate its in vivo performance in rabbits. Methodology: Transdermal patches of LD were formulated using the polymer blend of eudragit RL100 (ERL) and polyvinyl pyrolidone (PVP) by casting method Propylene glycol (PG) and tween 80 were used as plasticizer and permeation enhancer respectively. The pharmaco kinetic parameters of LD after the administration of transdermal patches was compared with that of oral administration. The study was carried out in a two way crossover design in male New Zealand albino rabbits. Results: The formulation with ERL: PVP ratio 1:4 with 15% w/w PG as plasticizer and 4% w/w tween 80 as permeation enhancer showed the best drug release results. The pharmacokinetic parameters such as Cmax, tmax, mean residence time (MRT) and area under the curve (AUC 0-∞) were significantly different following transdermal administration compared to oral administration. The terminal half life of transdermally administered LD was found to similar that of oral administration. A sustained drug release over a period of 24 hrs was observed after transdermal administration. Conclusion: The fabricated transdermal delivery system have the potential to provide controlled and extended drug release, better bio availability and thus, this may improve the patient compliance.

Keywords: transdermal therapeutic system, lercanidipine hydrochloride, eudragit, skinpermeation

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459 Assessing Effects of an Intervention on Bottle-Weaning and Reducing Daily Milk Intake from Bottles in Toddlers Using Two-Part Random Effects Models

Authors: Yungtai Lo

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Two-part random effects models have been used to fit semi-continuous longitudinal data where the response variable has a point mass at 0 and a continuous right-skewed distribution for positive values. We review methods proposed in the literature for analyzing data with excess zeros. A two-part logit-log-normal random effects model, a two-part logit-truncated normal random effects model, a two-part logit-gamma random effects model, and a two-part logit-skew normal random effects model were used to examine effects of a bottle-weaning intervention on reducing bottle use and daily milk intake from bottles in toddlers aged 11 to 13 months in a randomized controlled trial. We show in all four two-part models that the intervention promoted bottle-weaning and reduced daily milk intake from bottles in toddlers drinking from a bottle. We also show that there are no differences in model fit using either the logit link function or the probit link function for modeling the probability of bottle-weaning in all four models. Furthermore, prediction accuracy of the logit or probit link function is not sensitive to the distribution assumption on daily milk intake from bottles in toddlers not off bottles.

Keywords: two-part model, semi-continuous variable, truncated normal, gamma regression, skew normal, Pearson residual, receiver operating characteristic curve

Procedia PDF Downloads 335
458 The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Legislations and Laws

Authors: Keroles Akram Saed Ghatas

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The near future will bring significant changes in modern organizations and management due to the growing role of intangible assets and knowledge workers. The area of copyright, intellectual property, digital (intangible) assets and media redistribution appears to be one of the greatest challenges facing business and society in general and management sciences and organizations in particular. The proposed article examines the views and perceptions of fairness in digital media sharing among Harvard Law School's LL.M.s. Students, based on 50 qualitative interviews and 100 surveys. The researcher took an ethnographic approach to her research and entered the Harvard LL.M. in 2016. at, a Face book group that allows people to connect naturally and attend in-person and private events more easily. After listening to numerous students, the researcher conducted a quantitative survey among 100 respondents to assess respondents' perceptions of fairness in digital file sharing in various contexts (based on media price, its availability, regional licenses, copyright holder status, etc.). to understand better . .). Based on the survey results, the researcher conducted long-term, open-ended and loosely structured ethnographic interviews (50 interviews) to further deepen the understanding of the results. The most important finding of the study is that Harvard lawyers generally support digital piracy in certain contexts, despite having the best possible legal and professional knowledge. Interestingly, they are also more accepting of working for the government than the private sector. The results of this study provide a better understanding of how “fairness” is perceived by the younger generation of lawyers and pave the way for a more rational application of licensing laws.

Keywords: cognitive impairments, communication disorders, death penalty, executive function communication disorders, cognitive disorders, capital murder, executive function death penalty, egyptian law absence, justice, political cases piracy, digital sharing, perception of fairness, legal profession

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457 Numerical and Experimental Analysis of Stiffened Aluminum Panels under Compression

Authors: Ismail Cengiz, Faruk Elaldi

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Within the scope of the study presented in this paper, load carrying capacity and buckling behavior of a stiffened aluminum panel designed by adopting current ‘buckle-resistant’ design application and ‘Post –Buckling’ design approach were investigated experimentally and numerically. The test specimen that is stabilized by Z-type stiffeners and manufactured from aluminum 2024 T3 Clad material was test under compression load. Buckling behavior was observed by means of 3 – dimensional digital image correlation (DIC) and strain gauge pairs. The experimental study was followed by developing an efficient and reliable finite element model whose ability to predict behavior of the stiffened panel used for compression test is verified by compering experimental and numerical results in terms of load – shortening curve, strain-load curves and buckling mode shapes. While finite element model was being constructed, non-linear behaviors associated with material and geometry was considered. Finally, applicability of aluminum stiffened panel in airframe design against to composite structures was evaluated thorough the concept of ‘Structural Efficiency’. This study reveals that considerable amount of weight saving could be gained if the concept of ‘post-buckling design’ is preferred to the already conventionally used ‘buckle resistant design’ concept in aircraft industry without scarifying any of structural integrity under load spectrum.

Keywords: post-buckling, stiffened panel, non-linear finite element method, aluminum, structural efficiency

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456 A Study of Topical and Similarity of Sebum Layer Using Interactive Technology in Image Narratives

Authors: Chao Wang

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Under rapid innovation of information technology, the media plays a very important role in the dissemination of information, and it has a totally different analogy generations face. However, the involvement of narrative images provides more possibilities of narrative text. "Images" through the process of aperture, a camera shutter and developable photosensitive processes are manufactured, recorded and stamped on paper, displayed on a computer screen-concretely saved. They exist in different forms of files, data, or evidence as the ultimate looks of events. By the interface of media and network platforms and special visual field of the viewer, class body space exists and extends out as thin as sebum layer, extremely soft and delicate with real full tension. The physical space of sebum layer of confuses the fact that physical objects exist, needs to be established under a perceived consensus. As at the scene, the existing concepts and boundaries of physical perceptions are blurred. Sebum layer physical simulation shapes the “Topical-Similarity" immersing, leading the contemporary social practice communities, groups, network users with a kind of illusion without the presence, i.e. a non-real illusion. From the investigation and discussion of literatures, digital movies editing manufacture and produce the variability characteristics of time (for example, slices, rupture, set, and reset) are analyzed. Interactive eBook has an unique interaction in "Waiting-Greeting" and "Expectation-Response" that makes the operation of image narrative structure more interpretations functionally. The works of digital editing and interactive technology are combined and further analyze concept and results. After digitization of Interventional Imaging and interactive technology, real events exist linked and the media handing cannot be cut relationship through movies, interactive art, practical case discussion and analysis. Audience needs more rational thinking about images carried by the authenticity of the text.

Keywords: sebum layer, topical and similarity, interactive technology, image narrative

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455 The Factors Constitute the Interaction between Teachers and Students: An Empirical Study at the Notion of Framing

Authors: Tien-Hui Chiang

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The code theory, proposed by Basil Bernstein, indicates that framing can be viewed as the core element in constituting the phenomenon of cultural reproduction because it is able to regulate the transmission of pedagogical information. Strong framing increases the social relation boundary between a teacher and pupils, which obstructs information transmission, so that in order to improve underachieving students’ academic performances, teachers need to reduce to strength of framing. Weak framing enables them to transform academic knowledge into commonsense knowledge in daily life language. This study posits that most teachers would deliver strong framing due to their belief mainly confined within the aspect of instrumental rationality that deprives their critical minds. This situation could make them view the normal distribution bell curve of students’ academic performances as a natural outcome. In order to examine the interplay between framing, instrumental rationality and pedagogical action, questionnaires were completed by over 5,000 primary school teachers in Henan province, China, who were stratified sample. The statistical results show that most teachers employed psychological concepts to measure students’ academic performances and, in turn, educational inequity was legitimatized as a natural outcome in the efficiency-led approach. Such efficiency-led minds made them perform as the agent practicing the mechanism of social control and in turn sustaining the phenomenon of cultural reproduction.

Keywords: code, cultural reproduction, framing, instrumental rationality, social relation and interaction

Procedia PDF Downloads 138
454 Humanity's Still Sub-Quantum Core-Self Intelligence

Authors: Andrew Shugyo Daijo Bonnici

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Core-Self Intelligence (CSI) is an absolutely still, non-verbal, non-cerebral intelligence. Our still core-self intelligence is felt at our body's center point of gravity, just an inch below our navel, deep within our lower abdomen. The still sub-quantum depth of core-Self remains untouched by the conditioning influences of family, society, culture, religion, and spiritual views that shape our personalities and ego-self identities. As core-Self intelligence is inborn and unconditioned, it exists within all human beings regardless of age, race, color, creed, mental acuity, or national origin. Our core-self intelligence functions as a wise and compassionate guide that advances our health and well-being, our mental clarity and emotional resiliency, our fearless peace and behavioral wisdom, and our ever-deepening compassion for self and others. Although our core-Self, with its absolutely still non-judgmental intelligence, operates far beneath the functioning of our ego-self identity and our thinking mind, it effectively coexists with our passing thoughts, all of our figuring and thinking, our logical and rational way of knowing, the ebb and flow of our feelings, and the natural or triggered emergence of our emotions. When we allow our whole inner somatic awareness to gently sink into the intelligent center point of gravity within our lower abdomen, the felt arising of our core- Self’s inborn stillness has a serene and relaxing effect on our ego-self and thinking mind. It naturally slows down the speedy passage of our involuntary thoughts, diminishes our ego-self's defensive and reactive functioning, and decreases narcissistic reflections on I, me, and mine. All of these healthy cognitive benefits advance our innate wisdom and compassion, facilitate our personal and interpersonal growth, and liberate the ever-fresh wonder and curiosity of our beginner's heartmind. In conclusion, by studying, exploring, and researching our core-Self intelligence, psychologists and psychotherapists can unlock new avenues for advancing the farther reaches of our mental, emotional, and spiritual health and well-being, our innate behavioral wisdom and boundless empathy, our lucid compassion for self and others, and our unwavering confidence in the still guiding light of our core-Self that exists at the abdominal center point of all human beings.

Keywords: intelligence, transpersonal, beginner’s heartmind, compassionate wisdom

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453 Study of Circulatory MiR-122 and MiR-130a Expression among Chronic Hepatitis C Egyptian Patients

Authors: Hend K. Moosa, Eman A. Rashwan, Ezzat M. Hassan, Amany A. Ghazy, Amel G. Sheredy

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The stability of microRNA (miR) in the circulation can show a great progress toward the discovery of non-invasive diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers in many diseases. In the present study, circulatory miR-122 and miR-130a were analysed in chronic hepatitis C Egyptian patients in predicting the clinical outcome of interferon treatment. In addition, their expression levels were correlated to viral RNA levels, necro-inflammatory markers (AST, ALT) and to each other. This study was conducted on 51 subjects where 36 were chronic HCV patients in which they were divided into naive and interferon treated HCV patients (responders and non-responders) and 15 matched healthy controls. Serum quantification of miR-122 and miR-130a were performed by quantitative Real-time Polymerase Chain Reaction (qRT-PCR). The results showed a significant upregulation of miR-122 in non-responder patients (P=0.049). By receiver operating characteristic analysis curve, miR-122 revealed 65% sensitivity and 92.3% specificity in predicting non-responsiveness of patients to IFN treatment, while miR-130a showed a sensitivity of 100% and specificity of 53.85%. Remarkably, there was a significant positive correlation between miR-122 and miR-130a in naive HCV patients (r=0.714, p=0.003). However, there was no significant correlation between serum miR-122, miR-130a expression levels and necro-inflammatory markers (AST, ALT). To conclude, miR-122 and miR-130a have a significant association with viral RNA levels and accordingly, they may have a synergistic power in promoting viral replication. Interestingly, miR-122 and miR-130a have a predictive power in predicting clinical outcome of IFN treatment which can be further studied in currently used drugs in order to reduce the socio-economic burden of potentially non-responders.

Keywords: hepatitis C, microRNA, miR-122, miR-130a

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452 A Significant Clinical Role for the Capitalbio™ DNA Microarray in the Diagnosis of Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis in Patients with Tuberculous Spondylitis Simultaneous with Pulmonary Tuberculosis in High Prevalence Settings in China

Authors: Wenjie Wu, Peng Cheng, Zehua Zhang, Fei Luo, Feng Wu, Min Zhong, Jianzhong Xu

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Background: There has been limited research into the therapeutic efficacy of rapid diagnosis of spinal tuberculosis complicated with pulmonary tuberculosis. We attempted to discover whether the utilization of a DNA microarray assay to detect multidrug-resistant spinal tuberculosis complicated with pulmonary tuberculosis can improve clinical outcomes. Methods: A prospective study was conducted from February 2006 to September 2015. One hundred and forty-three consecutive culture–confirmed, clinically and imaging diagnosed MDR-TB patients with spinal tuberculosis complicated by pulmonary tuberculosis were enrolled into the study. The initial time to treatment for MDR-TB, the method of infection control, radiological indicators of spinal tubercular infectious foci, culture conversion, and adverse drug reactions were compared with the standard culture methods. Results: Of the total of 143 MDR-TB patients, 68 (47.6%) were diagnosed by conventional culture methods and 75 (52.4%) following the implementation of detection using the DNA microarray. Patients in the microarray group began rational use of the second-line drugs schedule more speedily than sufferers in the culture group (17.3 vs. 74.1 days). Among patients were admitted to a general tuberculosis ward, those from the microarray group spent less time in the ward than those from the culture group (7.8 vs. 49.2 days). In those patients with six months follow-up (n=134), patients in the microarray group had a higher rate of sputum negativity conversion at six months (89% vs. 73%). In the microarray group, the rate of drug adverse reactions was significantly lower (22.2% vs. 67.7%). At the same time, they had a more obvious reduction of the area with spinal tuberculous lesions in radiological examinations (77% vs. 108%). Conclusions: The application of the CapitalBio™ DNA Microarray assay caused noteworthy clinical advances including an earlier time to begin MDR-TB treatment, increased sputum culture conversion, improved infection control measures and better radiographical results

Keywords: tuberculosis, multidrug-resistant, tuberculous spondylitis, DNA microarray, clinical outcomes

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451 Vertical Uplift Capacity of a Group of Equally Spaced Helical Screw Anchors in Sand

Authors: Sanjeev Mukherjee, Satyendra Mittal

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This paper presents the experimental investigations on the behaviour of a group of single, double and triple helical screw anchors embedded vertically at the same level in sand. The tests were carried out on one, two, three and four numbers of anchors in sand for different depths of embedment keeping shallow and deep mode of behaviour in mind. The testing program included 48 tests conducted on three model anchors installed in sand whose density kept constant throughout the tests. It was observed that the ultimate pullout load varied significantly with the installation depth of the anchor and the number of anchors. The apparent coefficient of friction (f*) between anchor and soil was also calculated based on the test results. It was found that the apparent coefficient of friction varies between 1.02 and 4.76 for 1, 2, 3, and 4 numbers of single, double and triple helical screw anchors. Plate load tests conducted on model soil showed that the value of ф increases from 35o for virgin soil to 48o for soil with four double screw helical anchors. The graphs of ultimate pullout capacity of a group of two, three and four no. of anchors with respect to one anchor were plotted and design equations have been proposed correlating them. Based on these findings, it has been concluded that the load-displacement relationships for all groups can be reduced to a common curve. A 3-D finite element model, PLAXIS, was used to confirm the results obtained from laboratory tests and the agreement is excellent.

Keywords: apparent coefficient of friction, helical screw anchor, installation depth, plate load test

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450 Simulation and Controller Tunning in a Photo-Bioreactor Applying by Taguchi Method

Authors: Hosein Ghahremani, MohammadReza Khoshchehre, Pejman Hakemi

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This study involves numerical simulations of a vertical plate-type photo-bioreactor to investigate the performance of Microalgae Spirulina and Control and optimization of parameters for the digital controller by Taguchi method that MATLAB software and Qualitek-4 has been made. Since the addition of parameters such as temperature, dissolved carbon dioxide, biomass, and ... Some new physical parameters such as light intensity and physiological conditions like photosynthetic efficiency and light inhibitors are involved in biological processes, control is facing many challenges. Not only facilitate the commercial production photo-bioreactor Microalgae as feed for aquaculture and food supplements are efficient systems but also as a possible platform for the production of active molecules such as antibiotics or innovative anti-tumor agents, carbon dioxide removal and removal of heavy metals from wastewater is used. Digital controller is designed for controlling the light bioreactor until Microalgae growth rate and carbon dioxide concentration inside the bioreactor is investigated. The optimal values of the controller parameters of the S/N and ANOVA analysis software Qualitek-4 obtained With Reaction curve, Cohen-Con and Ziegler-Nichols method were compared. The sum of the squared error obtained for each of the control methods mentioned, the Taguchi method as the best method for controlling the light intensity was selected photo-bioreactor. This method compared to control methods listed the higher stability and a shorter interval to be answered.

Keywords: photo-bioreactor, control and optimization, Light intensity, Taguchi method

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449 Price Effect Estimation of Tobacco on Low-wage Male Smokers: A Causal Mediation Analysis

Authors: Kawsar Ahmed, Hong Wang

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The study's goal was to estimate the causal mediation impact of tobacco tax before and after price hikes among low-income male smokers, with a particular emphasis on the effect estimating pathways framework for continuous and dichotomous variables. From July to December 2021, a cross-sectional investigation of observational data (n=739) was collected from Bangladeshi low-wage smokers. The Quasi-Bayesian technique, binomial probit model, and sensitivity analysis using a simulation of the computational tools R mediation package had been used to estimate the effect. After a price rise for tobacco products, the average number of cigarettes or bidis sticks taken decreased from 6.7 to 4.56. Tobacco product rising prices have a direct effect on low-income people's decisions to quit or lessen their daily smoking habits of Average Causal Mediation Effect (ACME) [effect=2.31, 95 % confidence interval (C.I.) = (4.71-0.00), p<0.01], Average Direct Effect (ADE) [effect=8.6, 95 percent (C.I.) = (6.8-0.11), p<0.001], and overall significant effects (p<0.001). Tobacco smoking choice is described by the mediated proportion of income effect, which is 26.1% less of following price rise. The curve of ACME and ADE is based on observational figures of the coefficients of determination that asses the model of hypothesis as the substantial consequence after price rises in the sensitivity analysis. To reduce smoking product behaviors, price increases through taxation have a positive causal mediation with income that affects the decision to limit tobacco use and promote low-income men's healthcare policy.

Keywords: causal mediation analysis, directed acyclic graphs, tobacco price policy, sensitivity analysis, pathway estimation

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448 Monitoring Synthesis of Biodiesel through Online Density Measurements

Authors: Arnaldo G. de Oliveira, Jr, Matthieu Tubino

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The transesterification process of triglycerides with alcohols that occurs during the biodiesel synthesis causes continuous changes in several physical properties of the reaction mixture, such as refractive index, viscosity and density. Amongst them, density can be an useful parameter to monitor the reaction, in order to predict the composition of the reacting mixture and to verify the conversion of the oil into biodiesel. In this context, a system was constructed in order to continuously determine changes in the density of the reacting mixture containing soybean oil, methanol and sodium methoxide (30 % w/w solution in methanol), stirred at 620 rpm at room temperature (about 27 °C). A polyethylene pipe network connected to a peristaltic pump was used in order to collect the mixture and pump it through a coil fixed on the plate of an analytical balance. The collected mass values were used to trace a curve correlating the mass of the system to the reaction time. The density variation profile versus the time clearly shows three different steps: 1) the dispersion of methanol in oil causes a decrease in the system mass due to the lower alcohol density followed by stabilization; 2) the addition of the catalyst (sodium methoxide) causes a larger decrease in mass compared to the first step (dispersion of methanol in oil) because of the oil conversion into biodiesel; 3) the final stabilization, denoting the end of the reaction. This density variation profile provides information that was used to predict the composition of the mixture over the time and the reaction rate. The precise knowledge of the duration of the synthesis means saving time and resources on a scale production system. This kind of monitoring provides several interesting features such as continuous measurements without collecting aliquots.

Keywords: biodiesel, density measurements, online continuous monitoring, synthesis

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447 Estimation of Rock Strength from Diamond Drilling

Authors: Hing Hao Chan, Thomas Richard, Masood Mostofi

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The mining industry relies on an estimate of rock strength at several stages of a mine life cycle: mining (excavating, blasting, tunnelling) and processing (crushing and grinding), both very energy-intensive activities. An effective comminution design that can yield significant dividends often requires a reliable estimate of the material rock strength. Common laboratory tests such as rod, ball mill, and uniaxial compressive strength share common shortcomings such as time, sample preparation, bias in plug selection cost, repeatability, and sample amount to ensure reliable estimates. In this paper, the authors present a methodology to derive an estimate of the rock strength from drilling data recorded while coring with a diamond core head. The work presented in this paper builds on a phenomenological model of the bit-rock interface proposed by Franca et al. (2015) and is inspired by the now well-established use of the scratch test with PDC (Polycrystalline Diamond Compact) cutter to derive the rock uniaxial compressive strength. The first part of the paper introduces the phenomenological model of the bit-rock interface for a diamond core head that relates the forces acting on the drill bit (torque, axial thrust) to the bit kinematic variables (rate of penetration and angular velocity) and introduces the intrinsic specific energy or the energy required to drill a unit volume of rock for an ideally sharp drilling tool (meaning ideally sharp diamonds and no contact between the bit matrix and rock debris) that is found well correlated to the rock uniaxial compressive strength for PDC and roller cone bits. The second part describes the laboratory drill rig, the experimental procedure that is tailored to minimize the effect of diamond polishing over the duration of the experiments, and the step-by-step methodology to derive the intrinsic specific energy from the recorded data. The third section presents the results and shows that the intrinsic specific energy correlates well to the uniaxial compressive strength for the 11 tested rock materials (7 sedimentary and 4 igneous rocks). The last section discusses best drilling practices and a method to estimate the rock strength from field drilling data considering the compliance of the drill string and frictional losses along the borehole. The approach is illustrated with a case study from drilling data recorded while drilling an exploration well in Australia.

Keywords: bit-rock interaction, drilling experiment, impregnated diamond drilling, uniaxial compressive strength

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446 Effect of Nicotine on the Reinforcing Effects of Cocaine in a Nonhuman Primate Model of Drug Use

Authors: Mia I. Allen, Bernard N. Johnson, Gagan Deep, Yixin Su, Sangeeta Singth, Ashish Kumar, , Michael A. Nader

Abstract:

With no FDA-approved treatments for cocaine use disorders (CUD), research has focused on the behavioral and neuropharmacological effects of cocaine in animal models, with the goal of identifying novel interventions. While the majority of people with CUD also use tobacco/nicotine, the majority of preclinical cocaine research does not include the co-use of nicotine. The present study examined nicotine and cocaine co-use under several conditions of intravenous drug self-administration in monkeys. In Experiment 1, male rhesus monkeys (N=3) self-administered cocaine (0.001-0.1 mg/kg/injection) alone and cocaine+nicotine (0.01-0.03 mg/kg/injection) under a progressive-ratio schedule of reinforcement. When nicotine was added to cocaine, there was a significant leftward shift and significant increase in peak break point. In Experiment 2, socially housed female and male cynomolgus monkeys (N=14) self-administered cocaine under a concurrent drug-vs-food choice schedule. Combining nicotine significantly decreased cocaine choice ED50 values (i.e., shifted the cocaine dose-response curve to the left) in females but not in males. There was no evidence of social rank differences. In delay discounting studies, the co-use of nicotine and cocaine required significantly larger delays to the preferred drug reinforcer to reallocate choice compared with cocaine alone. Overall, these results suggest drug interactions of nicotine and cocaine co-use is not simply a function of potency but rather a fundamentally distinctive condition that should be utilized to better understand the neuropharmacology of CUD and the evaluation of potential treatments.

Keywords: polydrug use, animal models, nonhuman primates, behavioral pharmacology, drug self-administration

Procedia PDF Downloads 75
445 Prediction of Pounding between Two SDOF Systems by Using Link Element Based On Mathematic Relations and Suggestion of New Equation for Impact Damping Ratio

Authors: Seyed M. Khatami, H. Naderpour, R. Vahdani, R. C. Barros

Abstract:

Many previous studies have been carried out to calculate the impact force and the dissipated energy between two neighboring buildings during seismic excitation, when they collide with each other. Numerical studies are an important part of impact, which several researchers have tried to simulate the impact by using different formulas. Estimation of the impact force and the dissipated energy depends significantly on some parameters of impact. Mass of bodies, stiffness of spring, coefficient of restitution, damping ratio of dashpot and impact velocity are some known and unknown parameters to simulate the impact and measure dissipated energy during collision. Collision is usually shown by force-displacement hysteresis curve. The enclosed area of the hysteresis loop explains the dissipated energy during impact. In this paper, the effect of using different types of impact models is investigated in order to calculate the impact force. To increase the accuracy of impact model and to optimize the results of simulations, a new damping equation is assumed and is validated to get the best results of impact force and dissipated energy, which can show the accuracy of suggested equation of motion in comparison with other formulas. This relation is called "n-m". Based on mathematical relation, an initial value is selected for the mentioned coefficients and kinetic energy loss is calculated. After each simulation, kinetic energy loss and energy dissipation are compared with each other. If they are equal, selected parameters are true and, if not, the constant of parameters are modified and a new analysis is performed. Finally, two unknown parameters are suggested to estimate the impact force and calculate the dissipated energy.

Keywords: impact force, dissipated energy, kinetic energy loss, damping relation

Procedia PDF Downloads 539
444 Efficient Human Motion Detection Feature Set by Using Local Phase Quantization Method

Authors: Arwa Alzughaibi

Abstract:

Human Motion detection is a challenging task due to a number of factors including variable appearance, posture and a wide range of illumination conditions and background. So, the first need of such a model is a reliable feature set that can discriminate between a human and a non-human form with a fair amount of confidence even under difficult conditions. By having richer representations, the classification task becomes easier and improved results can be achieved. The Aim of this paper is to investigate the reliable and accurate human motion detection models that are able to detect the human motions accurately under varying illumination levels and backgrounds. Different sets of features are tried and tested including Histogram of Oriented Gradients (HOG), Deformable Parts Model (DPM), Local Decorrelated Channel Feature (LDCF) and Aggregate Channel Feature (ACF). However, we propose an efficient and reliable human motion detection approach by combining Histogram of oriented gradients (HOG) and local phase quantization (LPQ) as the feature set, and implementing search pruning algorithm based on optical flow to reduce the number of false positive. Experimental results show the effectiveness of combining local phase quantization descriptor and the histogram of gradient to perform perfectly well for a large range of illumination conditions and backgrounds than the state-of-the-art human detectors. Areaunder th ROC Curve (AUC) of the proposed method achieved 0.781 for UCF dataset and 0.826 for CDW dataset which indicates that it performs comparably better than HOG, DPM, LDCF and ACF methods.

Keywords: human motion detection, histograms of oriented gradient, local phase quantization, local phase quantization

Procedia PDF Downloads 244
443 Development and Validation of High-Performance Liquid Chromatography Method for the Determination and Pharmacokinetic Study of Linagliptin in Rat Plasma

Authors: Hoda Mahgoub, Abeer Hanafy

Abstract:

Linagliptin (LNG) belongs to dipeptidyl-peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitor class. DPP-4 inhibitors represent a new therapeutic approach for the treatment of type 2 diabetes in adults. The aim of this work was to develop and validate an accurate and reproducible HPLC method for the determination of LNG with high sensitivity in rat plasma. The method involved separation of both LNG and pindolol (internal standard) at ambient temperature on a Zorbax Eclipse XDB C18 column and a mobile phase composed of 75% methanol: 25% formic acid 0.1% pH 4.1 at a flow rate of 1.0 mL.min-1. UV detection was performed at 254nm. The method was validated in compliance with ICH guidelines and found to be linear in the range of 5–1000ng.mL-1. The limit of quantification (LOQ) was found to be 5ng.mL-1 based on 100µL of plasma. The variations for intra- and inter-assay precision were less than 10%, and the accuracy values were ranged between 93.3% and 102.5%. The extraction recovery (R%) was more than 83%. The method involved a single extraction step of a very small plasma volume (100µL). The assay was successfully applied to an in-vivo pharmacokinetic study of LNG in rats that were administered a single oral dose of 10mg.kg-1 LNG. The maximum concentration (Cmax) was found to be 927.5 ± 23.9ng.mL-1. The area under the plasma concentration-time curve (AUC0-72) was 18285.02 ± 605.76h.ng.mL-1. In conclusion, the good accuracy and low LOQ of the bioanalytical HPLC method were suitable for monitoring the full pharmacokinetic profile of LNG in rats. The main advantages of the method were the sensitivity, small sample volume, single-step extraction procedure and the short time of analysis.

Keywords: HPLC, linagliptin, pharmacokinetic study, rat plasma

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442 Bench Tests of Two-Stroke Opposed Piston Aircraft Diesel Engine under Propeller Characteristics Conditions

Authors: A. Majczak, G. Baranski, K. Pietrykowski

Abstract:

Due to the growing popularity of light aircraft, it has become necessary to develop aircraft engines for this type of construction. One of engine system, designed to increase efficiency and reduce weight, is the engine with opposed pistons. In such an engine, the combustion chamber is formed by two pistons moving in one cylinder. Therefore, this type of engines run in a two-stroke cycle, so they have many advantages such as high power and torque, high efficiency, or a favorable power-to-weight ratio. Tests of one of the available aircraft engines with opposing piston system fueled with diesel oil were carried out on an engine dynamometer equipped with an eddy current brake and the necessary measuring and testing equipment. In order to get to know the basic parameters of the engine, the tests were carried out under partial load conditions for the following torque values: 40, 60, 80, 100 Nm. The rotational speed was changed from 1600 to 2500 rpm. Measurements were also taken for designated points of propeller characteristics. During the tests, the engine torque, engine power, fuel consumption, intake manifold pressure, and oil pressure were recorded. On the basis of the measurements carried out for particular loads, the power curve, hourly and specific fuel consumption curves were determined. Characteristics of charge pressure as a function of rotational speed as well as power, torque, hourly and specific fuel consumption curves for propeller characteristics were also prepared. The obtained characteristics make it possible to select the optimal points of engine operation.

Keywords: aircraft, diesel, engine testing, opposed piston

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441 Effect of Zirconium (Zr) Amount on Mechanical and Metallurgical Behavior of ZE41A Magnesium Alloy

Authors: Emrah Yaliniz, Ali Kalkanli

Abstract:

ZE41A magnesium alloy has been extensively used in aerospace industry, especially for use in rotorcraft transmission casings. Due to the improved mechanical properties, the latest generation of magnesium casting alloy EV31A-T6 (Elektron 21® specified in AMS 4429) is seen as a potential replacement for ZE41A in terms of strength. Therefore, the necessity of enhancement has been arisen for ZE41A in order to avoid fully replacement. The main element affecting the strength of ZE41A is Zirconium (Zr), which acts as a grain refiner. The specified range of Zr element for ZE41A alloy is between 0.4 wt % and 1.0 wt % (unless otherwise stated by weight percentage after this point) as stated in AMS 4439. This paper investigates the effects of Zr amount on tensile and metallurgical properties of ZE41A magnesium alloy. The Zr alloying amount for the research has been chosen as 0.5 % and 1 %, which are standard amounts in a commercial alloy (average of 0.4-0.6%) and maximum percent in the standard, separately. 1 % Zr amount has been achieved via Zirmax (66.7 Mg-33.3 Zr) master alloy addition. The ultimate tensile strength of ZE41A with 1% Zr has been increased up to about 220-225 MPa in comparison to 200 MPa given in AMS 4439. The reason for the increase in strength with the addition of Zirmax is based on the decrease in grain size, which was measured about 30 µm. Optical microscope, scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and X-ray Diffraction (XRD) were used to detect the change in the microstructural futures via alloying. The zirconium rich coring at the center of the grains was observed in addition to the grain boundary intermetallic phases and bulk Mg-rich matrix. The solidification characteristics were also identified by using the cooling curve obtained from the sand casting mold during cooling of the alloys.

Keywords: aerospace, grain refinement, magnesium, sand casting, ZE41A

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440 CT Medical Images Denoising Based on New Wavelet Thresholding Compared with Curvelet and Contourlet

Authors: Amir Moslemi, Amir movafeghi, Shahab Moradi

Abstract:

One of the most important challenging factors in medical images is nominated as noise.Image denoising refers to the improvement of a digital medical image that has been infected by Additive White Gaussian Noise (AWGN). The digital medical image or video can be affected by different types of noises. They are impulse noise, Poisson noise and AWGN. Computed tomography (CT) images are subjected to low quality due to the noise. The quality of CT images is dependent on the absorbed dose to patients directly in such a way that increase in absorbed radiation, consequently absorbed dose to patients (ADP), enhances the CT images quality. In this manner, noise reduction techniques on the purpose of images quality enhancement exposing no excess radiation to patients is one the challenging problems for CT images processing. In this work, noise reduction in CT images was performed using two different directional 2 dimensional (2D) transformations; i.e., Curvelet and Contourlet and Discrete wavelet transform(DWT) thresholding methods of BayesShrink and AdaptShrink, compared to each other and we proposed a new threshold in wavelet domain for not only noise reduction but also edge retaining, consequently the proposed method retains the modified coefficients significantly that result in good visual quality. Data evaluations were accomplished by using two criterions; namely, peak signal to noise ratio (PSNR) and Structure similarity (Ssim).

Keywords: computed tomography (CT), noise reduction, curve-let, contour-let, signal to noise peak-peak ratio (PSNR), structure similarity (Ssim), absorbed dose to patient (ADP)

Procedia PDF Downloads 428
439 A Validated High-Performance Liquid Chromatography-UV Method for Determination of Malondialdehyde-Application to Study in Chronic Ciprofloxacin Treated Rats

Authors: Anil P. Dewani, Ravindra L. Bakal, Anil V. Chandewar

Abstract:

Present work demonstrates the applicability of high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) with UV detection for the determination of malondialdehyde as malondialdehyde-thiobarbituric acid complex (MDA-TBA) in-vivo in rats. The HPLC-UV method for MDA-TBA was achieved by isocratic mode on a reverse-phase C18 column (250mm×4.6mm) at a flow rate of 1.0mLmin−1 followed by UV detection at 278 nm. The chromatographic conditions were optimized by varying the concentration and pH followed by changes in percentage of organic phase optimal mobile phase consisted of mixture of water (0.2% Triethylamine pH adjusted to 2.3 by ortho-phosphoric acid) and acetonitrile in ratio (80:20 % v/v). The retention time of MDA-TBA complex was 3.7 min. The developed method was sensitive as limit of detection and quantification (LOD and LOQ) for MDA-TBA complex were (standard deviation and slope of calibration curve) 110 ng/ml and 363 ng/ml respectively. The method was linear for MDA spiked in plasma and subjected to derivatization at concentrations ranging from 100 to 1000 ng/ml. The precision of developed method measured in terms of relative standard deviations for intra-day and inter-day studies was 1.6–5.0% and 1.9–3.6% respectively. The HPLC method was applied for monitoring MDA levels in rats subjected to chronic treatment of ciprofloxacin (CFL) (5mg/kg/day) for 21 days. Results were compared by findings in control group rats. Mean peak areas of both study groups was subjected for statistical treatment to unpaired student t-test to find p-values. The p value was < 0.001 indicating significant results and suggesting increased MDA levels in rats subjected to chronic treatment of CFL of 21 days.

Keywords: MDA, TBA, ciprofloxacin, HPLC-UV

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438 A Molecular Dynamics Study on Intermittent Plasticity and Dislocation Avalanche Emissions in FCC and BCC Crystals

Authors: Javier Varillas, Jorge Alcalá

Abstract:

We investigate dislocation avalanche phenomena in face-centered cubic (FCC) and body-centered cubic (BCC) crystals using massive, large-scale molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. The analysis is focused on the intermittent development of dense dislocation arrangements subjected to uniaxial tensile straining under displacement control. We employ a novel computational scheme that allows us to inject an entangled dislocation structure in periodic MD domains. We assess the emission of plastic bursts (or dislocation avalanches) in terms of the sharp stress drops detected in the stress-strain curve. The plastic activity corresponds to the sporadic operation of specific dislocation glide processes exhibiting quiescent periods between successive avalanche events. We find that the plastic intermittences in our simulations do not overlap in time under sufficiently low strain rates as dissipation operates faster than driving, where the dense dislocation networks evolve through the emission of dislocation avalanche events whose carried slip adheres to self-organized power-law distributions. These findings enable the extension of the slip distributions obtained from strict displacement-controlled micropillar compression experiments towards smaller values of slip size. Our results furnish further understanding upon the development of entangled dislocation networks in metal plasticity, including specific mechanisms of dislocation propagation and annihilation, along with the evolution of specific dislocation populations through dislocation density analyses.

Keywords: dislocations, intermittent plasticity, molecular dynamics, slip distributions

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437 Filtering Momentum Life Cycles, Price Acceleration Signals and Trend Reversals for Stocks, Credit Derivatives and Bonds

Authors: Periklis Brakatsoulas

Abstract:

Recent empirical research shows a growing interest in investment decision-making under market anomalies that contradict the rational paradigm. Momentum is undoubtedly one of the most robust anomalies in the empirical asset pricing research and remains surprisingly lucrative ever since first documented. Although predominantly phenomena identified across equities, momentum premia are now evident across various asset classes. Yet few many attempts are made so far to provide traders a diversified portfolio of strategies across different assets and markets. Moreover, literature focuses on patterns from past returns rather than mechanisms to signal future price directions prior to momentum runs. The aim of this paper is to develop a diversified portfolio approach to price distortion signals using daily position data on stocks, credit derivatives, and bonds. An algorithm allocates assets periodically, and new investment tactics take over upon price momentum signals and across different ranking groups. We focus on momentum life cycles, trend reversals, and price acceleration signals. The main effort here concentrates on the density, time span and maturity of momentum phenomena to identify consistent patterns over time and measure the predictive power of buy-sell signals generated by these anomalies. To tackle this, we propose a two-stage modelling process. First, we generate forecasts on core macroeconomic drivers. Secondly, satellite models generate market risk forecasts using the core driver projections generated at the first stage as input. Moreover, using a combination of the ARFIMA and FIGARCH models, we examine the dependence of consecutive observations across time and portfolio assets since long memory behavior in volatilities of one market appears to trigger persistent volatility patterns across other markets. We believe that this is the first work that employs evidence of volatility transmissions among derivatives, equities, and bonds to identify momentum life cycle patterns.

Keywords: forecasting, long memory, momentum, returns

Procedia PDF Downloads 91
436 Evaluation of the Diagnostic Potential of IL-2 after Specific Antigen Stimulation with PE35 (Rv3872) and PPE68 (Rv3873) for the Discrimination of Active and Latent Tuberculosis

Authors: Shima Mahmoudi, Babak Pourakbari, Setareh Mamishi, Mostafa Teymuri, Majid Marjani

Abstract:

Although cytokine analysis has greatly contributed to the understanding of tuberculosis (TB) pathogenesis, data on cytokine profiles that might distinguish progression from latency of TB infection are scarce. Since PE/PPE proteins are known to induce strong humoral and cellular immune responses, the aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic potential of interleukin-2 (IL-2) as biomarker after specific antigen stimulation with PE35 and PPE68 for the discrimination of active and latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI). The production of IL-2 was measured in the antigen-stimulated whole-blood supernatants following stimulation with recombinant PE35 and PPE68. All the patients with active TB and LTBI had positive QuantiFERON-TB Gold in Tube test. The level of IL-2 following stimulation with recombinant PE35 and PPE68 were significantly higher in LTBI group than in patients with active TB infection or control group. The discrimination performance (assessed by the area under ROC curve) for IL-2 following stimulation with recombinant PE35 and PPE68 between LTBI and patients with active TB were 0.837 (95%CI: 0.72-0.97) and 0.75 (95%CI: 0.63-0.89), respectively. Applying the 12.4 pg/mL cut-off for IL-2 induced by PE35 in the present study population resulted in sensitivity of 78%, specificity of 78%, PPV of 78% and NPV of 100%. In addition, a sensitivity of 81%, specificity of 70%, PPV of 67% and 87% of NPV was reported based on the 4.4 pg/mL cut-off for IL-2 induced by PPE68. In conclusion, peptides of the antigen PE35 and PPE68, absent from commonly used BCG strains, stimulated strong IL-2- positive T cell responses in patients with LTBI. This study confirms IL-2 induced by PE35 and PPE68 as a sensitive and specific biomarker and highlights IL-2 as new promising adjunct markers for discriminating of LTBI and Active TB infection.

Keywords: IL-2, PE35, PPE68, tuberculosis

Procedia PDF Downloads 397
435 Establishment of a Nomogram Prediction Model for Postpartum Hemorrhage during Vaginal Delivery

Authors: Yinglisong, Jingge Chen, Jingxuan Chen, Yan Wang, Hui Huang, Jing Zhnag, Qianqian Zhang, Zhenzhen Zhang, Ji Zhang

Abstract:

Purpose: The study aims to establish a nomogram prediction model for postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) in vaginal delivery. Patients and Methods: Clinical data were retrospectively collected from vaginal delivery patients admitted to a hospital in Zhengzhou, China, from June 1, 2022 - October 31, 2022. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to filter out independent risk factors. A nomogram model was established for PPH in vaginal delivery based on the risk factors coefficient. Bootstrapping was used for internal validation. To assess discrimination and calibration, receiver operator characteristics (ROC) and calibration curves were generated in the derivation and validation groups. Results: A total of 1340 cases of vaginal delivery were enrolled, with 81 (6.04%) having PPH. Logistic regression indicated that history of uterine surgery, induction of labor, duration of first labor, neonatal weight, WBC value (during the first stage of labor), and cervical lacerations were all independent risk factors of hemorrhage (P <0.05). The area-under-curve (AUC) of ROC curves of the derivation group and the validation group were 0.817 and 0.821, respectively, indicating good discrimination. Two calibration curves showed that nomogram prediction and practical results were highly consistent (P = 0.105, P = 0.113). Conclusion: The developed individualized risk prediction nomogram model can assist midwives in recognizing and diagnosing high-risk groups of PPH and initiating early warning to reduce PPH incidence.

Keywords: vaginal delivery, postpartum hemorrhage, risk factor, nomogram

Procedia PDF Downloads 58