Search results for: cumulative exposure model

Authors: Hassan Youssef Mohamed

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In this paper, we show new wave equations, and by using the equations, we concluded that the strong force and the weak force are not fundamental, but they are quantum effects for electromagnetism. This result is different from the current scientific understanding about strong and weak interactions at all. So, we introduce three evidences for our theory. First, we prove the asymptotic freedom phenomenon in the strong force by using our model. Second, we derive the nuclear shell model as an approximation of our model. Third, we prove that the leptons do not participate in the strong interactions, and we prove the short ranges of weak and strong interactions. So, our model is consistent with the current understanding of physics. Finally, we introduce the electron-positron model as the basic ingredients for protons, neutrons, and all matters, so we can study all particles interactions and nuclear interaction as many-body problems of electrons and positrons. Also, we prove the violation of parity conservation in weak interaction as evidence of our theory in the weak interaction. Also, we calculate the average of the binding energy per nucleon.

Keywords: new wave equations, the strong force, the grand unification theory, hydrogen atom, weak force, the nuclear shell model, the asymptotic freedom, electron-positron model, the violation of parity conservation, the binding energy

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Authors: I. A Tijani, Y. F Wu, C.W. Lim

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Concrete Damaged Plasticity Model (CDPM) is capable of modeling the stress-strain behavior of confined concrete. Nevertheless, the accuracy of the model largely depends on its parameters. To date, most research works mainly focus on the identification and modification of the parameters for fiber reinforced polymer (FRP) confined concrete prior to damage. And, it has been established that the FRP-strengthened concrete behaves differently to FRP-repaired concrete. This paper presents a modified plastic damage model within the context of the CDPM in ABAQUS for modelling of a uniformly FRP-confined repaired concrete under monotonic loading. The proposed model includes infliction damage, elastic stiffness, yield criterion and strain hardening rule. The distinct feature of damaged concrete is elastic stiffness reduction; this is included in the model. Meanwhile, the test results were obtained from a physical testing of repaired concrete. The dilation model is expressed as a function of the lateral stiffness of the FRP-jacket. The finite element predictions are shown to be in close agreement with the obtained test results of the repaired concrete. It was observed from the study that with necessary modifications, finite element method is capable of modeling FRP-repaired concrete structures.

Keywords: Concrete, FRP, Damage, Repairing, Plasticity, and Finite element method

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Authors: A. S. Mousa, F. Shoman

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We present a discrete game theoretical model with homogeneous individuals who make simultaneous decisions. In this model the strategy space of all individuals is a discrete and dichotomous set which consists of two strategies. We fully characterize the coherent, split and mixed strategies that form Nash equilibria and we determine the corresponding Nash domains for all individuals. We find all strategic thresholds in which individuals can change their mind if small perturbations in the parameters of the model occurs.

Keywords: coherent strategy, split strategy, pure strategy, mixed strategy, Nash equilibrium, game theory

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Authors: Hyun-Kyu Cho, Jun-Su Kim, Choon-Geun Huh, Geon Lee Young-Chul Park

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In this study, the relationship between flow properties and fluid projection distance look into connection for shape variations of foam monitor. A numerical analysis technique for fluid analysis of a foam monitor was developed for the prediction. Shape of foam monitor the flow path of fluid flow according to the shape, The fluid losses were calculated from flow analysis result.. The modified model used the length increase model of the flow path, and straight line of the model. Inlet pressure was 7 [bar] and external was atmosphere codition. am. The results showed that the length increase model of the flow path and straight line of the model was improved in the nozzle projection distance.

Keywords: injection performance, finite element method, foam monitor, Projection distance

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Authors: Bello Gonzalez, Setten Van M., Brouwer M.

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The chicken small intestine represents a dynamic and complex organ in which the enzymatic digestion and absorption of nutrients take place. The development of an in vitro fermentation chicken small intestinal model could be used as an alternative to explore the interaction between the microbiota and nutrient metabolism and to enhance the efficacy of targeting interventions to improve animal health. In the present study we have developed an in vitro fermentation chicken ileum microbiota model for unrevealing the complex interaction of ileum microbial community under physiological conditions. A two-vessel continuous fermentation process simulating in real-time the physiological conditions of the ileum content (pH, temperature, microaerophilic/anoxic conditions, and peristaltic movements) has been standardized as a proof of concept. As inoculum, we use a pool of ileum microbial community obtained from chicken broilers at the age of day 14. The development and validation of the model provide insight into the initial characterization of the ileum microbial community and its dynamics over time-related to nutrient assimilation and fermentation. Samples can be collected at different time points and can be used to determine the microbial compositional structure, dynamics, and diversity over time. The results of studies using this in vitro model will serve as the foundation for the development of a whole small intestine in vitro fermentation chicken gastrointestinal model to complement our already established in vitro fermentation chicken caeca model. The insight gained from this model could provide us with some information about the nutritional strategies to restore and maintain chicken gut homeostasis. Moreover, the in vitro fermentation model will also allow us to study relationships between gut microbiota composition and its dynamics over time associated with nutrients, antimicrobial compounds, and disease modelling.

Keywords: broilers, in vitro model, ileum microbiota, fermentation

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Authors: Sikiru Ademola Adewale, Joe Thomas, Bolanle Hafiz Matti, Tosin Ige

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This project demonstrates the implementation and use of an encoder-decoder model to perform a many-to-many mapping of video data to text captions. The many-to-many mapping occurs via an input temporal sequence of video frames to an output sequence of words to form a caption sentence. Data preprocessing, model construction, and model training are discussed. Caption correctness is evaluated using 2-gram BLEU scores across the different splits of the dataset. Specific examples of output captions were shown to demonstrate model generality over the video temporal dimension. Predicted captions were shown to generalize over video action, even in instances where the video scene changed dramatically. Model architecture changes are discussed to improve sentence grammar and correctness.

Keywords: decoder, encoder, many-to-many mapping, video captioning, 2-gram BLEU

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Authors: Zenaida Chitu, Roxana Bojariu, Liliana Velea, Roxana Burcea

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A number of studies show that extreme air temperature affects mortality related to cardiovascular diseases, particularly among elderly people. In Romania, the summer thermal discomfort expressed by Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) is highest in the Southern part of the country, where Bucharest, the largest Romanian urban agglomeration, is also located. The urban characteristics such as high building density and reduced green areas enhance the increase of the air temperature during summer. In Bucharest, as in many other large cities, the effect of heat urban island is present and determines an increase of air temperature compared to surrounding areas. This increase is particularly important during heat wave periods in summer. In this context, the researchers performed a temperature-mortality analysis based on daily deaths related to cardiovascular diseases, recorded between 2010 and 2019 in Bucharest. The temperature-mortality relationship was modeled by applying distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) that includes a bi-dimensional cross-basis function and flexible natural cubic spline functions with three internal knots in the 10th, 75th and 90th percentiles of the temperature distribution, for modelling both exposure-response and lagged-response dimensions. Firstly, this study applied this analysis for the present climate. Extrapolation of the exposure-response associations beyond the observed data allowed us to estimate future effects on mortality due to temperature changes under climate change scenarios and specific assumptions. We used future projections of air temperature from five numerical experiments with regional climate models included in the EURO-CORDEX initiative under the relatively moderate (RCP 4.5) and pessimistic (RCP 8.5) concentration scenarios. The results of this analysis show for RCP 8.5 an ensemble-averaged increase with 6.1% of heat-attributable mortality fraction in future in comparison with present climate (2090-2100 vs. 2010-219), corresponding to an increase of 640 deaths/year, while mortality fraction due to the cold conditions will be reduced by 2.76%, corresponding to a decrease by 288 deaths/year. When mortality data is stratified according to the age, the ensemble-averaged increase of heat-attributable mortality fraction for elderly people (> 75 years) in the future is even higher (6.5 %). These findings reveal the necessity to carefully plan urban development in Bucharest to face the public health challenges raised by the climate change. Paper Details: This work is financed by the project URCLIM which is part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, and funded by Ministry of Environment, Romania with co-funding by the European Union (Grant 690462). A part of this work performed by one of the authors has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme from the project EXHAUSTION under grant agreement No 820655.

Keywords: cardiovascular diseases, climate change, extreme air temperature, mortality

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Authors: A. Bayaga

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This research provides a technical account of estimating Transition Probability using Time-homogeneous Markov Jump Process applying by South African HIV/AIDS data from the Statistics South Africa. It employs Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) model to explore the possible influence of Transition Probability of mortality cases in which case the data was based on actual Statistics South Africa. This was conducted via an integrated demographic and epidemiological model of South African HIV/AIDS epidemic. The model was fitted to age-specific HIV prevalence data and recorded death data using MLE model. Though the previous model results suggest HIV in South Africa has declined and AIDS mortality rates have declined since 2002 – 2013, in contrast, our results differ evidently with the generally accepted HIV models (Spectrum/EPP and ASSA2008) in South Africa. However, there is the need for supplementary research to be conducted to enhance the demographic parameters in the model and as well apply it to each of the nine (9) provinces of South Africa.

Keywords: AIDS mortality rates, epidemiological model, time-homogeneous markov jump process, transition probability, statistics South Africa

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Authors: Morteza Giti

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As online shopping is becoming increasingly popular, computing customer lifetime value for better knowing the customers is also gaining more importance. Two distinct factors that can affect the value of a customer in the context of online shopping is the number of returned orders and payment method. Returned orders are those which have been shipped but not collected by the customer and are returned to the store. Payment method refers to the way that customers choose to pay for the price of the order which are usually two: Pre-pay and Cash-on-delivery. In this paper, a novel model called RFMSP is presented to calculated the customer lifetime value, taking these two parameters into account. The RFMSP model is based on the common RFM model while adding two extra parameter. The S represents the order status and the P indicates the payment method. As a case study for this model, the purchase history of customers in an online shop is used to compute the customer lifetime value over a period of twenty months.

Keywords: RFMSP model, AHP, customer lifetime value, k-means clustering, e-commerce

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Authors: A. Sharma, S. S. Sandhu, A.Shahi, A. Kumar

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In this study, the effects of geometric configurations of butt joints i.e. double V groove, double U groove and UV groove of AISI 304L of thickness 12 mm by using Gas Tungsten Arc Welding (GTAW) are investigated. The magnitude of transverse shrinkage stress and distortion generated during welding under the unrestrained conditions of butt joints is the main objective of the study. The effect of groove design on impact strength and metallurgical properties are also studied. The Finite element analysis for the groove design is done and compared the actual experimentation. The experimental results and the FEM results were compared and reveal a very good correlation for distortion and weld groove design for multipass joint with a standard analogy of 80%. In the case of VV groove design it was found that the transverse stress and cumulative deflection have the lowest value. It was found that the UV groove design had the maximum ultimate and yield tensile strength, VV groove had the highest impact strength. Vicker’s hardness value of all the groove design was measured. Micro structural studies were carried out using conventional microscopic tools which revealed a lot of useful information for correlating the microstructure with mechanical properties.

Keywords: weld groove design, distortion, AISI 304 L, butt joint, FEM, GTAW

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Authors: Umashankar Morya, Somnath Basu

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Metalloids like arsenic are often present as contaminants in industrial effluents. Removal of the same is essential before the safe discharge of the wastewater into the environment. Otherwise, these pollutants tend to percolate into aquifers over a period of time and contaminate drinking water sources. Several adsorbents, including metal powders, carbon nanotubes and zeolites, are being used for this purpose, with varying degrees of success. However, most of these solutions are not only costly but also not always readily available. This restricts their use, especially among financially weaker communities. Slag generated globally from primary steelmaking operations exceeds 200 billion kg every year. Some of it is utilized for applications like road construction, filler in reinforced concrete, railway track ballast and recycled into iron ore agglomeration processes. However, these usually involve low-value addition, and a significant amount of the slag still ends up in a landfill. However, there is a strong possibility that the constituents in the steelmaking slag may immobilize metalloid contaminants present in wastewater through a combination of adsorption and precipitation of insoluble product(s). Preliminary experiments have already indicated that exposure to basic oxygen steelmaking slag does reduce pollutant concentration in wastewater. In addition, the slag is relatively inexpensive and available in large quantities and in several countries across the world. Investigations on the mechanism of interactions at the water-solid interfaces have been in progress for some time. However, at the same time, there are concerns about the possibility of leaching of metal ions from the slag particles in concentrations greater than what exists in the water bodies where the “treated” wastewater would eventually be discharged. The effect of such leached ions on the aquatic flora and fauna is yet uncertain. This has prompted the present investigation, which focuses on the leaching of metal ions from steelmaking slag particles in contact with wastewater, and the influence of these ions on the removal of contaminant species. Experiments were carried out to quantify the leaching behavior of different ionic species upon exposure of the slag particles to simulated wastewater, both with and without specific metalloid contaminants.

Keywords: slag, water, metalloid, heavy metal, wastewater

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Authors: B. Engel, H. Hassan

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Rotary draw bending is a method which is being used in tube forming. In the tube bending process, the neutral axis moves towards the inner arc and the wall thickness distribution changes for tube’s cross section. Thinning takes place in the outer arc of the tube (extrados) due to the stretching of the material, whereas thickening occurs in the inner arc of the tube (intrados) due to the comparison of the material. The calculations of the wall thickness distribution, neutral axis shifting, and strain distribution have not been accurate enough, so far. The previous model (the geometrical model) describes the neutral axis shifting and wall thickness distribution. The geometrical of the tube, bending radius and bending angle are considered in the geometrical model, while the influence of the material properties of the tube forming are ignored. The advanced model is a modification of the previous model using material properties that depends on the correction factor. The correction factor is a purely empirically determined factor. The advanced model was compared with the Finite element simulation (FE simulation) using a different bending factor (Bf=bending radius/ diameter of the tube), wall thickness (Wf=diameter of the tube/ wall thickness), and material properties (strain hardening exponent). Finite element model of rotary draw bending has been performed in PAM-TUBE program (version: 2012). Results from the advanced model resemble the FE simulation and the experimental test.

Keywords: rotary draw bending, material properties, neutral axis shifting, wall thickness distribution

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Authors: Sayed M. Ahmed, Sawsan S. Darwish, Mahmoud A. Adam, Nagib A. Elmarzugi, Mohammad A. Al-Dosari, Nadia A. Al-Mouallimi

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Historical stone surfaces and architectural heritage especially which located in open areas may undergo unwanted changes due to the exposure to many physical and chemical deterioration factors, air pollution, soluble salts, Rh/temperature, and biodeterioration are the main causes of decay of stone building materials. The development and application of self-cleaning treatments on historical and architectural stone surfaces could be a significant improvement in conservation, protection, and maintenance of cultural heritage. In this paper, nanometric titanium dioxide has become a promising photocatalytic material owing to its ability to catalyze the complete degradation of many organic contaminants and represent an appealing way to create self-cleaning surfaces, thus limiting maintenance costs, and to promote the degradation of polluting agents. The obtained nano-TiO2 coatings were applied on travertine (Marble and limestone often used in historical and monumental buildings). The efficacy of the treatments has been evaluated after coating and artificial thermal aging, through capillary water absorption, Ultraviolet-light exposure to evaluate photo-induced and the hydrophobic effects of the coated surface, while the surface morphology before and after treatment was examined by scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The changes of molecular structure occurring in treated samples were spectroscopy studied by FTIR-ATR, and Colorimetric measurements have been performed to evaluate the optical appearance. All the results get together with the apparent effect that coated TiO2 nanoparticles is an innovative method, which enhanced the durability of stone surfaces toward UV aging, improved their resistance to relative humidity and temperature, self-cleaning photo-induced effects are well evident, and no alteration of the original features.

Keywords: architectural calcareous stone monuments, coating, photocatalysis TiO2, self-cleaning, thermal aging

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Authors: Guorong Sui, Xingwei Jia, Fei Tong, Xiumin Gao

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Camera calibration is a fundamental issue of high precision noncontact measurement. And it is necessary to analyze and study the reliability and application range of its linear model which is often used in the camera calibration. According to the imaging features of monocular cameras, a camera model which is based on the image pixel coordinates and three dimensional space coordinates is built. Using our own customized template, the image pixel coordinate is obtained by the subpixel corner detection method. Without considering the aberration of the optical system, the feature extraction and linearity analysis of the line segment in the template are performed. Moreover, the experiment is repeated 11 times by constantly varying the measuring distance. At last, the linearity of the camera is achieved by fitting 11 groups of data. The camera model measurement results show that the relative error does not exceed 1%, and the repeated measurement error is not more than 0.1 mm magnitude. Meanwhile, it is found that the model has some measurement differences in the different region and object distance. The experiment results show this linear model is simple and practical, and have good linearity within a certain object distance. These experiment results provide a powerful basis for establishment of the linear model of camera. These works will have potential value to the actual engineering measurement.

Keywords: camera linear model, geometric imaging relationship, image pixel coordinates, three dimensional space coordinates, sub-pixel corner detection

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Authors: Ofosuhene O. Apenteng, Noor Azina Ismail

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Over the last several years, concern has developed over how to minimize the spread of HIV/AIDS epidemic in many countries. AIDS epidemic has tremendously stimulated the development of mathematical models of infectious diseases. The transmission dynamics of HIV infection that eventually developed AIDS has taken a pivotal role of much on building mathematical models. From the initial HIV and AIDS models introduced in the 80s, various improvements have been taken into account as how to model HIV/AIDS frameworks. In this paper, we present the impact of migration on the spread of HIV/AIDS. Epidemic model is considered by a system of nonlinear differential equations to supplement the statistical method approach. The model is calibrated using HIV incidence data from Malaysia between 1986 and 2011. Bayesian inference based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to validate the model by fitting it to the data and to estimate the unknown parameters for the model. The results suggest that the migrants stay for a long time contributes to the spread of HIV. The model also indicates that susceptible individual becomes infected and moved to HIV compartment at a rate that is more significant than the removal rate from HIV compartment to AIDS compartment. The disease-free steady state is unstable since the basic reproduction number is 1.627309. This is a big concern and not a good indicator from the public heath point of view since the aim is to stabilize the epidemic at the disease equilibrium.

Keywords: epidemic model, HIV, MCMC, parameter estimation

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Authors: Naragain Phumchusri, Kittitach Pongpairoj

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Overbooking is a very useful revenue management technique that could help reduce costs caused by either undersales or oversales. In this paper, we propose an overbooking model for two types of cars that can minimize the total cost for car rental service. With two types of cars, there is an upgrade possibility for lower type to upper type. This makes the model more complex than one type of cars scenario. We have found that convexity can be proved in this case. Sensitivity analysis of the parameters is conducted to observe the effects of relevant parameters on the optimal solution. Model simplification is proposed using multiple linear regression analysis, which can help estimate the optimal overbooking level using appropriate independent variables. The results show that the overbooking level from multiple linear regression model is relatively close to the optimal solution (with the adjusted R-squared value of at least 72.8%). To evaluate the performance of the proposed model, the total cost was compared with the case where the decision maker uses a naïve method for the overbooking level. It was found that the total cost from optimal solution is only 0.5 to 1 percent (on average) lower than the cost from regression model, while it is approximately 67% lower than the cost obtained by the naïve method. It indicates that our proposed simplification method using regression analysis can effectively perform in estimating the overbooking level.

Keywords: overbooking, car rental industry, revenue management, stochastic model

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Authors: W. Hasan, H. Farhat, A. Alhilo, L. Tamimi

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Oil in water (O/W) emulsions are utilized extensively for cooling and lubricating cutting tools during parts machining. A robust Lattice Boltzmann (LBM) thermal-surfactants model, which provides a useful platform for exploring complex emulsions’ characteristics under variety of flow conditions, is used here for the study of the fluid behavior during conventional tools cooling. The transient thermal capabilities of the model are employed for simulating the effects of the flow conditions of O/W emulsions on the cooling of cutting tools. The model results show that the temperature outcome is slightly affected by reversing the direction of upper plate (workpiece). On the other hand, an important increase in effective viscosity is seen which supports better lubrication during the work.

Keywords: hybrid lattice Boltzmann method, Gunstensen model, thermal, surfactant-covered droplet, Marangoni stress

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Authors: Mohammadreza Mohebbi, Masoumeh Sanagou

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The ability to predict clinical outcomes is of great importance to physicians and clinicians. A number of different methods have been used in an effort to accurately predict these outcomes. These methods include the development of scoring systems based on multivariate statistical modelling, and models involving the use of classification and regression trees. The process usually consists of two consecutive phases, namely model development and external validation. The model development phase consists of building a multivariate model and evaluating its predictive performance by examining calibration and discrimination, and internal validation. External validation tests the predictive performance of a model by assessing its calibration and discrimination in different but plausibly related patients. A motivate example focuses on prediction modeling using a sample of patients undergone coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) has been used for illustrative purpose and a set of primary considerations for evaluating prediction model studies using specific quality indicators as criteria to help stakeholders evaluate the quality of a prediction model study has been proposed.

Keywords: clinical prediction models, clinical decision rule, prognosis, external validation, model calibration, biostatistics

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Authors: Mohammad Reza Dahmardeh Ghaleno, Mohammad Nohtani, Saeedeh Khaledi

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Hydrological models are applied to simulation and prediction floods in watersheds. WetSpa is a distributed, continuous and physically model with daily or hourly time step that explains of precipitation, runoff and evapotranspiration processes for both simple and complex contexts. This model uses a modified rational method for runoff calculation. In this model, runoff is routed along the flow path using Diffusion-Wave Equation which depend on the slope, velocity and flow route characteristics. Garmabrood watershed located in Mazandaran province in Iran and passing over coordinates 53° 10´ 55" to 53° 38´ 20" E and 36° 06´ 45" to 36° 25´ 30"N. The area of the catchment is about 1133 km2 and elevations in the catchment range from 213 to 3136 m at the outlet, with average slope of 25.77 %. Results of the simulations show a good agreement between calculated and measured hydrographs at the outlet of the basin. Drawing upon Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency Coefficient for calibration periodic model estimated daily hydrographs and maximum flow rate with an accuracy up to 61% and 83.17 % respectively.

Keywords: watershed simulation, WetSpa, runoff, flood prediction

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Authors: Madina Hamiane

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Modelling and simulation of an analogy function generator is presented based on a polynomial expansion model. The proposed function generator model is based on a 10th order polynomial approximation of any of the required functions. The polynomial approximations of these functions can then be implemented using basic CMOS circuit blocks. In this paper, a circuit model is proposed that can simultaneously generate many different mathematical functions. The circuit model is designed and simulated with HSPICE and its performance is demonstrated through the simulation of a number of non-linear functions.

Keywords: modelling and simulation, analog function generator, polynomial approximation, CMOS transistors

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Authors: Mohanad Al-Behadili, Djamila Ouelhadj

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In this paper, a specific type of vehicle routing problem under stochastic demand (SVRP) is considered. This problem is of great importance because it models for many of the real world vehicle routing applications. This paper used a robust optimisation model to solve the problem along with the novel Simulation-Particle Swarm Optimisation (Sim-PSO) approach. The proposed Sim-PSO approach is based on the hybridization of the Monte Carlo simulation technique with the PSO algorithm. A comparative study between the proposed model and the Sim-PSO approach against other solution methods in the literature has been given in this paper. This comparison including the Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) to show the ability of the model and solution method in solving the complicated SVRP. The experimental results show that the proposed model and Sim-PSO approach has a significant impact on the obtained solution by providing better quality solutions comparing with well-known algorithms in the literature.

Keywords: stochastic vehicle routing problem, robust optimisation model, Monte Carlo simulation, particle swarm optimisation

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Authors: Y. Landkocz, C. Lepers, P.J. Martin, B. Fougère, F. Roy Saint-Georges. A. Verdin, F. Cazier, F. Ledoux, D. Courcot, F. Sichel, P. Gosset, P. Shirali, S. Billet

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In 2013, the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) classified air pollution and fine particles as carcinogenic to humans. Causal relationships exist between elevated ambient levels of airborne particles and increase of mortality and morbidity including pulmonary diseases, like lung cancer. However, due to a double complexity of both physicochemical Particulate Matter (PM) properties and tumor mechanistic processes, mechanisms of action remain not fully elucidated. Furthermore, because of several common properties between air pollution PM and tobacco smoke, like the same route of exposure and chemical composition, potential mechanisms of synergy could exist. Therefore, smoking could be an aggravating factor of the particles toxicity. In order to identify some mechanisms of action of particles according to their size, two samples of PM were collected: PM0.03 2.5 and PM0.33 2.5 in the urban-industrial area of Dunkerque. The overall cytotoxicity of the fine particles was determined on human bronchial cells (BEAS-2B). Toxicological study focused then on the metabolic activation of the organic compounds coated onto PM and some genetic and epigenetic changes induced on a co-culture model of BEAS-2B and alveolar macrophages isolated from bronchoalveolar lavages performed in smokers and non-smokers. The results showed (i) the contribution of the ultrafine fraction of atmospheric particles to genotoxic (eg. DNA double-strand breaks) and epigenetic mechanisms (eg. promoter methylation) involved in tumor processes, and (ii) the influence of smoking on the cellular response. Three main conclusions can be discussed. First, our results showed the ability of the particles to induce deleterious effects potentially involved in the stages of initiation and promotion of carcinogenesis. The second conclusion is that smoking affects the nature of the induced genotoxic effects. Finally, the in vitro developed cell model, using bronchial epithelial cells and alveolar macrophages can take into account quite realistically, some of the existing cell interactions existing in the lung.

Keywords: air pollution, fine and ultrafine particles, genotoxic and epigenetic alterations, smoking

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Authors: Edda E. Falcone, Cinzia Federico, Sergio Bellomo, Lorenzo Brusca, Manfredi Longo, Walter D’Alessandro

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Although trace metals are an essential element for living beings, they can become toxic at high concentrations. Their potential toxicity is related not only to the total content in the environment but mostly upon their bioavailability. Volcanoes are important natural metal emitters and they can deeply affect the quality of air, water and soils, as well as the human health. Trace metals tend to accumulate in the tissues of living organisms, depending on the metal contents in food, air and water and on the exposure time. Birds are considered as bioindicators of interest, because their feathers directly reflects the metals uptake from the blood. Birds are exposed to the atmospheric pollution through the contact with rainfall, dust, and aerosol, and they accumulate metals over the whole life cycle. We report on the first data combining the rainfall metal content in three different areas of Mt Etna, variably fumigated by the volcanic plume, and the metal contents in the feathers of pigeons, collected in the same areas. Rainfall samples were collected from three rain gauges placed at different elevation on the Eastern flank of the volcano, the most exposed to airborne plume, filtered, treated with HNO₃ Suprapur-grade and analyzed for Fe, Cr, Co, Ni, Se, Zn, Cu, Sr, Ba, Cd and As by ICP-MS technique, and major ions by ion chromatography. Feathers were collected from single individuals, in the same areas where the rain gauges were installed. Additionally, some samples were collected in an urban area, poorly interested by the volcanic plume. The samples were rinsed in MilliQ water and acetone, dried at 50°C until constant weight and digested in a mixture of 2:1 HNO₃ (65%) - H₂O₂ (30%) Suprapur-grade for 25-50 mg of sample, in a bath at near-to-boiling temperature. The solutions were diluted up to 20 ml prior to be analyzed by ICP-MS. The rainfall samples most contaminated by the plume were collected at close distance from the summit craters (less than 6 km), and show lower pH values and higher concentrations for all analyzed metals relative to those from the sites at lower elevation. Analyzed samples are enriched in both metals directly emitted by the volcanic plume and transported by acidic gases (SO₂, HCl, HF), and metals leached from the airborne volcanic ash. Feathers show different patterns in the different sites related to the exposure to natural or anthropogenic pollutants. They show abundance ratios similar to rainfall for lithophile elements (Ba, Sr), whereas are enriched in Zn and Se, known for their antioxidant properties, probably as adaptive response to oxidative stress induced by toxic metal exposure. The pigeons revealed a clear heterogeneity of metal uptake in the different parts of the volcano, as an effect of volcanic plume impact. Additionally, some physiological processes can modify the fate of some metals after uptake and this offer some insights for translational studies.

Keywords: bioindicators, environmental pollution, feathers, trace metals, volcanic plume

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Authors: Vinko Vidučić, Ljiljana Vidučić, Damir Boras

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The goals of the research include the determination of the characteristics of SMEs finance in Croatia, as well as the determination of indirect growth rates of the information model of the entrepreneurs` perception of business environment. The research results show that cost of finance and access to finance are most important constraining factor in setting up and running the business of small entrepreneurs in Croatia. Furthermore, small entrepreneurs in Croatia are significantly dissatisfied with the administrative barriers although relatively to a lesser extent than was the case in the pre-crisis time. High collateral requirement represents the main characteristic of bank lending concerning SMEs followed by long credit elaboration process. Formulated information model has defined the individual impact of indirect growth rates of the remaining variables on the model’s specific variable.

Keywords: business environment, information model, indirect growth rates, SME finance

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Authors: Septiawan A. Saputro, Purnami Widyaningsih, Sutanto Sastraredja

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Measles is a disease which can spread caused by a virus and has been a priority’s Ministry of Health in Indonesia to be solved. Each infected person can be recovered and get immunity so that the spread of the disease can be constructed with susceptible infected recovered (SIR). To prevent the spread of measles transmission, the Ministry of Health holds vaccinations program. The aims of the research are to derive susceptible vaccinated infected recovered (SVIR) model, to determine the patterns of disease spread with SVIR model, and also to apply the SVIR model on the spread of measles in Indonesia. Based on the article, it can be concluded that the spread model of measles with vaccinations, that is SVIR model. It is a first-order differential equation system. The patterns of disease spread is determined by solution of the model. Based on that model Indonesia will be a measles-free nation in 2186 with the average of vaccinations scope about 88% and the average score of vaccinations failure about 4.9%. If it is simulated as Ministry of Health new programs with the average of vaccinations scope about 95% and the average score of vaccinations failure about 3%, then Indonesia will be a measles-free nation in 2184. Even with the average of vaccinations scope about 100% and no failure of vaccinations, Indonesia will be a measles-free nation in 2183. Indonesia’s target as a measles-free nation in 2020 has not been reached.

Keywords: measles, vaccination, susceptible infected recovered (SIR), susceptible vaccinated infected recovered (SVIR)

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Authors: A. Elmikaty, Z. Thanawarothon, L. Mezeix

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This paper presents a finite element model to simulate the teeth failure of non-circular composite chainring. Model consists of the chainring and a part of the chain. To reduce the size of the model, only the first 11 rollers are simulated. In order to validate the model, it is firstly applied to a circular aluminum chainring and evolution of the stress in the teeth is compared with the literature. Then, effect of the non-circular shape is studied through three different loading positions. Strength of non-circular composite chainring and failure scenario is investigated. Moreover, two composite lay-ups are proposed to observe the influence of the stacking. Results show that composite material can be used but the lay-up has a large influence on the strength. Finally, loading position does not have influence on the first composite failure that always occurs in the first tooth.

Keywords: CFRP, composite failure, FEA, non-circular chainring

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Authors: Siriraks Khawchaimaha, Sangwian Boonto

Abstract:

Sport Authority of Thailand (SAT) is the state enterprise, promotes and supports all sports kind both professional and athletes for competitions, and administer under government policy and government officers and therefore, all financial supports whether cash inflows and cash outflows are strictly committed to government budget and limited to the planned projects at least 12 to 16 months ahead of reality, as results of ineffective in sport events, administration and competitions. In order to retain in the sports challenges around the world, SAT need to has its own sports business services model by each stadium, region and athletes’ competencies. Based on the HMK model of Khawchaimaha, S. (2007), this research study is formalized into each 10 regional stadiums to details into the characteristics root of fans, athletes, coaches, equipments and facilities, and stadiums. The research designed is firstly the evaluation of external factors: hardware whereby competition or practice of stadiums, playground, facilities, and equipments. Secondly, to understand the software of the organization structure, staffs and management, administrative model, rules and practices. In addition, budget allocation and budget administration with operating plan and expenditure plan. As results for the third step, issues and limitations which require action plan for further development and support, or to cease that unskilled sports kind. The final step, based on the HMK model and modeling canvas by Alexander O and Yves P (2010) are those of template generating Sports Business Services Model for each 10 SAT’s regional stadiums.

Keywords: HMK model, not for profit organization, sport business model, sport services model

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Authors: Mehrnaz Farzingohar, Mehran Yasemi, Ahmad Savari

Abstract:

The oil products are imported and exported via Rajaee’s tanker terminal. Within loading and discharging in several cases the oil is released into the berths and made oil spills. The spills are distributed within short time and seriously affected Rajaee port’s environment and even extended areas. The trajectory and fate of oil spills investigated by modeling and parted by three risk levels base on the modeling results. First GNOME (General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment) applied to trajectory the liquid oil. Second, ALOHA (Areal Location Of Hazardous Atmosphere) air quality model, is integrated to predict the oil evaporation path within the air. Base on the identified zones the high risk areas are signed by colored dots which their densities calculated and clarified on a map which displayed the harm places. Wind and water circulation moved the pollution to the East of Rajaee Port that accumulated about 12 km of coastline. Approximately 20 km of north east of Qeshm Island shore is covered by the three levels of risky areas. Since the main wind direction is SSW the pollution pushed to the east and the highest risk zones formed on the crests edges hence the low risk appeared on the concavities. This assessment help the management and emergency systems to monitor the exposure places base on the priority factors and find the best approaches to protect the environment.

Keywords: oil spill, modeling, pollution, risk assessment

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Authors: Nayab Kanwal, Noor Us Saher

Abstract:

The management and utilization of food resources is becoming a big issue due to rapid urbanization, wastage and non-sustainable use of food, especially in developing countries. Therefore, the use of seafood as alternative sources is strongly promoted worldwide. Marine pollution strongly affects marine organisms, which ultimately decreases their export quality. The monitoring of contamination in marine organisms is a good indicator of the environmental quality as well as seafood quality. Monitoring the accumulation of chemical elements within various tissues of organisms has become a useful tool to survey current or chronic levels of heavy metal exposure within an environment. In this perspective, this study was carried out to compare the previous and current levels (Year 2012 and 2014) of heavy metals (Cd, Pb, Cr, Cu and Zn) in crabs marketed in Karachi and to estimate the toxicological risk associated with their intake. The accumulation of metals in marine organisms, both essential (Cu and Zn) and toxic (Pb, Cd and Cr), natural and anthropogenic, is an actual food safety issue. Significant (p>0.05) variations in metal concentrations were found in all crab species between the two years, with most of the metals showing high accumulation in 2012. For toxicological risk assessment, EWI (Estimated weekly intake), Target Hazard quotient (THQ) and cancer risk (CR) were also assessed and high EWI, Non- cancer risk (THQ < 1) showed that there is no serious threat associated with the consumption of shellfish species on Karachi coast. The Cancer risk showed the highest risk from Cd and Pb pollution if consumed in excess. We summarize key environmental health research on health effects associated with exposure to contaminated seafood. It could be concluded that considering the Pakistan coast, these edible species may be sensitive and vulnerable to the adverse effects of environmental contaminants; more attention should be paid to the Pb and Cd metal bioaccumulation and to toxicological risks to seafood and consumers.

Keywords: cancer risk, edible crabs, heavy metals pollution, risk assessment

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Authors: Andrea ČopíKová

Abstract:

Competency Based Management is a new approach to management, which solves organization’s challenges with complexity and with the aim to find and solve organization’s problems and learn how to avoid these in future. They teach the organizations to create, apart from the state of stability – that is temporary, vital organization, which is permanently able to utilize and profit from internal and external opportunities. The aim of this paper is to propose a process of competency model design, based on which a competency model for a financial department manager in a production company will be created. Competency models are very useful tool in many personnel processes in any organization. They are used for acquiring and selection of employees, designing training and development activities, employees’ evaluation, and they can be used as a guide for a career planning and as a tool for succession planning especially for managerial positions. When creating a competency model the method AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and quantitative pair-wise comparison (Saaty’s method) will be used; these methods belong among the most used methods for the determination of weights, and it is used in the AHP procedure. The introduction part of the paper consists of the research results pertaining to the use of competency model in practice and then the issue of competency and competency models is explained. The application part describes in detail proposed methodology for the creation of competency models, based on which the competency model for the position of financial department manager in a foreign manufacturing company, will be created. In the conclusion of the paper, the final competency model will be shown for above mentioned position. The competency model divides selected competencies into three groups that are managerial, interpersonal and functional. The model describes in detail individual levels of competencies, their target value (required level) and the level of importance.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, competency, competency model, quantitative pairwise comparison

Procedia PDF Downloads 243