Search results for: city cost function
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 13539

Search results for: city cost function

759 Bedouin Dispersion in Israel: Between Sustainable Development and Social Non-Recognition

Authors: Tamir Michal

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The subject of Bedouin dispersion has accompanied the State of Israel from the day of its establishment. From a legal point of view, this subject has offered a launchpad for creative judicial decisions. Thus, for example, the first court decision in Israel to recognize affirmative action (Avitan), dealt with a petition submitted by a Jew appealing the refusal of the State to recognize the Petitioner’s entitlement to the long-term lease of a plot designated for Bedouins. The Supreme Court dismissed the petition, holding that there existed a public interest in assisting Bedouin to establish permanent urban settlements, an interest which justifies giving them preference by selling them plots at subsidized prices. In another case (The Forum for Coexistence in the Negev) the Supreme Court extended equitable relief for the purpose of constructing a bridge, even though the construction infringed the Law, in order to allow the children of dispersed Bedouin to reach school. Against this background, the recent verdict, delivered during the Protective Edge military campaign, which dismissed a petition aimed at forcing the State to spread out Protective Structures in Bedouin villages in the Negev against the risk of being hit from missiles launched from Gaza (Abu Afash) is disappointing. Even if, in arguendo, no selective discrimination was involved in the State’s decision not to provide such protection, the decision, and its affirmation by the Court, is problematic when examined through the prism of the Theory of Recognition. The article analyses the issue by tools of theory of Recognition, according to which people develop their identities through mutual relations of recognition in different fields. In the social context, the path to recognition is cognitive respect, which is provided by means of legal rights. By seeing other participants in Society as bearers of rights and obligations, the individual develops an understanding of his legal condition as reflected in the attitude to others. Consequently, even if the Court’s decision may be justified on strict legal grounds, the fact that Jewish settlements were protected during the military operation, whereas Bedouin villages were not, is a setback in the struggle to make the Bedouin citizens with equal rights in Israeli society. As the Court held, ‘Beyond their protective function, the Migunit [Protective Structures] may make a moral and psychological contribution that should not be undervalued’. This contribution is one that the Bedouin did not receive in the Abu Afash verdict. The basic thesis is that the Court’s verdict analyzed above clearly demonstrates that the reliance on classical liberal instruments (e.g., equality) cannot secure full appreciation of all aspects of Bedouin life, and hence it can in fact prejudice them. Therefore, elements of the recognition theory should be added, in order to find the channel for cognitive dignity, thereby advancing the Bedouins’ ability to perceive themselves as equal human beings in the Israeli society.

Keywords: bedouin dispersion, cognitive respect, recognition theory, sustainable development

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758 Food Security in Germany: Inclusion of the Private Sector through Law Reform Faces Challenges

Authors: Agnetha Schuchardt, Jennifer Hartmann, Laura Schulte, Roman Peperhove, Lars Gerhold

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If critical infrastructures fail, even for a short period of time, it can have significant negative consequences for the affected population. This is especially true for the food sector that is strongly interlinked with other sectors like the power supply. A blackout could lead to several cities being without food supply for numerous days, simply because cash register systems do no longer work properly. Following the public opinion, securing the food supply in emergencies is considered a task of the state, however, in the German context, the key players are private enterprises and private households. Both are not aware of their responsibility and both cannot be forced to take any preventive measures prior to an emergency. This problem became evident to officials and politicians so that the law covering food security was revised in order to include private stakeholders into mitigation processes. The paper will present a scientific review of governmental and regulatory literature. The focus is the inclusion of the food industry through a law reform and the challenges that still exist. Together with legal experts, an analysis of regulations will be presented that explains the development of the law reform concerning food security and emergency storage in Germany. The main findings are that the existing public food emergency storage is out-dated, insufficient and too expensive. The state is required to protect food as a critical infrastructure but does not have the capacities to live up to this role. Through a law reform in 2017, new structures should to established. The innovation was to include the private sector into the civil defense concept since it has the required knowledge and experience. But the food industry is still reluctant. Preventive measures do not serve economic purposes – on the contrary, they cost money. The paper will discuss respective examples like equipping supermarkets with emergency power supply or self-sufficient cash register systems and why the state is not willing to cover the costs of these measures, but neither is the economy. The biggest problem with the new law is that private enterprises can only be forced to support food security if the state of emergency has occurred already and not one minute earlier. The paper will cover two main results: the literature review and an expert workshop that will be conducted in summer 2018 with stakeholders from different parts of the food supply chain as well as officials of the public food emergency concept. The results from this participative process will be presented and recommendations will be offered that show how the private economy could be better included into a modern food emergency concept (e. g. tax reductions for stockpiling).

Keywords: critical infrastructure, disaster control, emergency food storage, food security, private economy, resilience

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757 Eggshell Waste Bioprocessing for Sustainable Acid Phosphatase Production and Minimizing Environmental Hazards

Authors: Soad Abubakr Abdelgalil, Gaber Attia Abo-Zaid, Mohamed Mohamed Yousri Kaddah

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Background: The Environmental Protection Agency has listed eggshell waste as the 15th most significant food industry pollution hazard. The utilization of eggshell waste as a source of renewable energy has been a hot topic in recent years. Therefore, finding a sustainable solution for the recycling and valorization of eggshell waste by investigating its potential to produce acid phosphatase (ACP) and organic acids by the newly-discovered B. sonorensis was the target of the current investigation. Results: The most potent ACP-producing B. sonorensis strain ACP2 was identified as a local bacterial strain obtained from the effluent of paper and pulp industries on basis of molecular and morphological characterization. The use of consecutive statistical experimental approaches of Plackett-Burman Design (PBD), and Orthogonal Central Composite Design (OCCD), followed by pH-uncontrolled cultivation conditions in a 7 L bench-top bioreactor, revealed an innovative medium formulation that substantially improved ACP production, reaching 216 U L⁻¹ with ACP yield coefficient Yp/x of 18.2 and a specific growth rate (µ) of 0.1 h⁻¹. The metals Ag+, Sn+, and Cr+ were the most efficiently released from eggshells during the solubilization process by B. sonorensis. The uncontrolled pH culture condition is the most suited and favored setting for improving the ACP and organic acids production simultaneously. Quantitative and qualitative analyses of produced organic acids were carried out using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). Lactic acid, citric acid, and hydroxybenzoic acid isomer were the most common organic acids produced throughout the cultivation process. The findings of thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), differential scan calorimeter (DSC), scanning electron microscope (SEM), energy-dispersive spectroscopy (EDS), Fourier-Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR), and X-Ray Diffraction (XRD) analysis emphasize the significant influence of organic acids and ACP activity on the solubilization of eggshells particles. Conclusions: This study emphasized robust microbial engineering approaches for the large-scale production of a newly discovered acid phosphatase accompanied by organic acids production from B. sonorensis. The biovalorization of the eggshell waste and the production of cost-effective ACP and organic acids were integrated into the current study, and this was done through the implementation of a unique and innovative medium formulation design for eggshell waste management, as well as scaling up ACP production on a bench-top scale.

Keywords: chicken eggshells waste, bioremediation, statistical experimental design, batch fermentation

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756 The Prevalence of Soil Transmitted Helminths among Newly Arrived Expatriate Labors in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

Authors: Mohammad Al-Refai, Majed Wakid

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Introduction: Soil-transmitted diseases (STD) are caused by intestinal worms that are transmitted via various routes into the human body resulting in various clinical manifestations. The intestinal worms causing these infections are known as soil transmitted helminths (STH), including Hook worms, Ascaris lumbricoides (A. lumbricoides), Trichuris trichiura (T. trichiura), and Strongyloides sterocoralis (S. sterocoralis). Objectives: The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of STH among newly arrived expatriate labors in Jeddah city, Saudi Arabia, using three different techniques (direct smears, sedimentation concentration, and real-time PCR). Methods: A total of 188 stool specimens were collected and investigated at the parasitology laboratory in the Special Infectious Agents Unit at King Fahd Medical Research Center, King Abdulaziz University in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Microscopic examination of wet mount preparations using normal saline and Lugols Iodine was carried out, followed by the formal ether sedimentation method. In addition, real-time PCR was used as a molecular tool to detect several STH and hookworm speciation. Results: Out of 188 stool specimens analyzed, in addition to STH parasite, several other types were detected. 9 samples (4.79%) were positive for Entamoeba coli, 7 samples (3.72%) for T. trichiura, 6 samples (3.19%) for Necator americanus, 4 samples (2.13%) for S. sterocoralis, 4 samples (2.13%) for A. lumbricoides, 4 samples (2.13%) for E. histolytica, 3 samples (1.60%) for Blastocystis hominis, 2 samples (1.06%) for Ancylostoma duodenale, 2 samples (1.06%) for Giardia lamblia, 1 sample (0.53%) for Iodamoeba buetschlii, 1 sample (0.53%) for Hymenolepis nana, 1 sample (0.53%) for Endolimax nana, and 1 sample (0.53%) for Heterophyes heterophyes. Out of the 35 infected cases, 26 revealed single infection, 8 with double infections, and only one triple infection of different STH species and other intestinal parasites. Higher rates of STH infections were detected among housemaids (11 cases) followed by drivers (7 cases) when compared to other occupations. According to educational level, illiterate participants represent the majority of infected workers (12 cases). The majority of workers' positive cases were from the Philippines. In comparison between laboratory techniques, out of the 188 samples screened for STH, real-time PCR was able to detect the DNA in (19/188) samples followed by Ritchie sedimentation technique (18/188), and direct wet smear (7/188). Conclusion: STH infections are a major public health issue to healthcare systems around the world. Communities must be educated on hygiene practices and the severity of such parasites to human health. As far as drivers and housemaids come to close contact with families, including children and elderlies. This may put family members at risk of developing serious side effects related to STH, especially as the majority of workers were illiterate, lacking the basic hygiene knowledge and practices. We recommend the official authority in Jeddah and around the kingdom of Saudi Arabia to revise the standard screening tests for newly arrived workers and enforce regular follow-up inspections to minimize the chances of the spread of STH from expatriate workers to the public.

Keywords: expatriate labors, Jeddah, prevalence, soil transmitted helminths

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755 Electrophoretic Light Scattering Based on Total Internal Reflection as a Promising Diagnostic Method

Authors: Ekaterina A. Savchenko, Elena N. Velichko, Evgenii T. Aksenov

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The development of pathological processes, such as cardiovascular and oncological diseases, are accompanied by changes in molecular parameters in cells, tissues, and serum. The study of the behavior of protein molecules in solutions is of primarily importance for diagnosis of such diseases. Various physical and chemical methods are used to study molecular systems. With the advent of the laser and advances in electronics, optical methods, such as scanning electron microscopy, sedimentation analysis, nephelometry, static and dynamic light scattering, have become the most universal, informative and accurate tools for estimating the parameters of nanoscale objects. The electrophoretic light scattering is the most effective technique. It has a high potential in the study of biological solutions and their properties. This technique allows one to investigate the processes of aggregation and dissociation of different macromolecules and obtain information on their shapes, sizes and molecular weights. Electrophoretic light scattering is an analytical method for registration of the motion of microscopic particles under the influence of an electric field by means of quasi-elastic light scattering in a homogeneous solution with a subsequent registration of the spectral or correlation characteristics of the light scattered from a moving object. We modified the technique by using the regime of total internal reflection with the aim of increasing its sensitivity and reducing the volume of the sample to be investigated, which opens the prospects of automating simultaneous multiparameter measurements. In addition, the method of total internal reflection allows one to study biological fluids on the level of single molecules, which also makes it possible to increase the sensitivity and the informativeness of the results because the data obtained from an individual molecule is not averaged over an ensemble, which is important in the study of bimolecular fluids. To our best knowledge the study of electrophoretic light scattering in the regime of total internal reflection is proposed for the first time, latex microspheres 1 μm in size were used as test objects. In this study, the total internal reflection regime was realized on a quartz prism where the free electrophoresis regime was set. A semiconductor laser with a wavelength of 655 nm was used as a radiation source, and the light scattering signal was registered by a pin-diode. Then the signal from a photodetector was transmitted to a digital oscilloscope and to a computer. The autocorrelation functions and the fast Fourier transform in the regime of Brownian motion and under the action of the field were calculated to obtain the parameters of the object investigated. The main result of the study was the dependence of the autocorrelation function on the concentration of microspheres and the applied field magnitude. The effect of heating became more pronounced with increasing sample concentrations and electric field. The results obtained in our study demonstrated the applicability of the method for the examination of liquid solutions, including biological fluids.

Keywords: light scattering, electrophoretic light scattering, electrophoresis, total internal reflection

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754 Monitoring Future Climate Changes Pattern over Major Cities in Ghana Using Coupled Modeled Intercomparison Project Phase 5, Support Vector Machine, and Random Forest Modeling

Authors: Stephen Dankwa, Zheng Wenfeng, Xiaolu Li

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Climate change is recently gaining the attention of many countries across the world. Climate change, which is also known as global warming, referring to the increasing in average surface temperature has been a concern to the Environmental Protection Agency of Ghana. Recently, Ghana has become vulnerable to the effect of the climate change as a result of the dependence of the majority of the population on agriculture. The clearing down of trees to grow crops and burning of charcoal in the country has been a contributing factor to the rise in temperature nowadays in the country as a result of releasing of carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases into the air. Recently, petroleum stations across the cities have been on fire due to this climate changes and which have position Ghana in a way not able to withstand this climate event. As a result, the significant of this research paper is to project how the rise in the average surface temperature will be like at the end of the mid-21st century when agriculture and deforestation are allowed to continue for some time in the country. This study uses the Coupled Modeled Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) experiment RCP 8.5 model output data to monitor the future climate changes from 2041-2050, at the end of the mid-21st century over the ten (10) major cities (Accra, Bolgatanga, Cape Coast, Koforidua, Kumasi, Sekondi-Takoradi, Sunyani, Ho, Tamale, Wa) in Ghana. In the models, Support Vector Machine and Random forest, where the cities as a function of heat wave metrics (minimum temperature, maximum temperature, mean temperature, heat wave duration and number of heat waves) assisted to provide more than 50% accuracy to predict and monitor the pattern of the surface air temperature. The findings identified were that the near-surface air temperature will rise between 1°C-2°C (degrees Celsius) over the coastal cities (Accra, Cape Coast, Sekondi-Takoradi). The temperature over Kumasi, Ho and Sunyani by the end of 2050 will rise by 1°C. In Koforidua, it will rise between 1°C-2°C. The temperature will rise in Bolgatanga, Tamale and Wa by 0.5°C by 2050. This indicates how the coastal and the southern part of the country are becoming hotter compared with the north, even though the northern part is the hottest. During heat waves from 2041-2050, Bolgatanga, Tamale, and Wa will experience the highest mean daily air temperature between 34°C-36°C. Kumasi, Koforidua, and Sunyani will experience about 34°C. The coastal cities (Accra, Cape Coast, Sekondi-Takoradi) will experience below 32°C. Even though, the coastal cities will experience the lowest mean temperature, they will have the highest number of heat waves about 62. Majority of the heat waves will last between 2 to 10 days with the maximum 30 days. The surface temperature will continue to rise by the end of the mid-21st century (2041-2050) over the major cities in Ghana and so needs to be addressed to the Environmental Protection Agency in Ghana in order to mitigate this problem.

Keywords: climate changes, CMIP5, Ghana, heat waves, random forest, SVM

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753 Reagentless Detection of Urea Based on ZnO-CuO Composite Thin Film

Authors: Neha Batra Bali, Monika Tomar, Vinay Gupta

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A reagentless biosensor for detection of urea based on ZnO-CuO composite thin film is presented in following work. Biosensors have immense potential for varied applications ranging from environmental to clinical testing, health care, and cell analysis. Immense growth in the field of biosensors is due to the huge requirement in today’s world to develop techniques which are both cost effective and accurate for prevention of disease manifestation. The human body comprises of numerous biomolecules which in their optimum levels are essential for functioning. However mismanaged levels of these biomolecules result in major health issues. Urea is one of the key biomolecules of interest. Its estimation is of paramount significance not only for healthcare sector but also from environmental perspectives. If level of urea in human blood/serum is abnormal, i.e., above or below physiological range (15-40mg/dl)), it may lead to diseases like renal failure, hepatic failure, nephritic syndrome, cachexia, urinary tract obstruction, dehydration, shock, burns and gastrointestinal, etc. Various metal nanoparticles, conducting polymer, metal oxide thin films, etc. have been exploited to act as matrix to immobilize urease to fabricate urea biosensor. Amongst them, Zinc Oxide (ZnO), a semiconductor metal oxide with a wide band gap is of immense interest as an efficient matrix in biosensors by virtue of its natural abundance, biocompatibility, good electron communication feature and high isoelectric point (9.5). In spite of being such an attractive candidate, ZnO does not possess a redox couple of its own which necessitates the use of electroactive mediators for electron transfer between the enzyme and the electrode, thereby causing hindrance in realization of integrated and implantable biosensor. In the present work, an effort has been made to fabricate a matrix based on ZnO-CuO composite prepared by pulsed laser deposition (PLD) technique in order to incorporate redox properties in ZnO matrix and to utilize the same for reagentless biosensing applications. The prepared bioelectrode Urs/(ZnO-CuO)/ITO/glass exhibits high sensitivity (70µAmM⁻¹cm⁻²) for detection of urea (5-200 mg/dl) with high stability (shelf life ˃ 10 weeks) and good selectivity (interference ˂ 4%). The enhanced sensing response obtained for composite matrix is attributed to the efficient electron exchange between ZnO-CuO matrix and immobilized enzymes, and subsequently fast transfer of generated electrons to the electrode via matrix. The response is encouraging for fabricating reagentless urea biosensor based on ZnO-CuO matrix.

Keywords: biosensor, reagentless, urea, ZnO-CuO composite

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752 Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain Method for Corn and Soybean Price Forecasting in North Carolina Markets

Authors: Selin Guney, Andres Riquelme

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Among the main purposes of optimal and efficient forecasts of agricultural commodity prices is to guide the firms to advance the economic decision making process such as planning business operations and marketing decisions. Governments are also the beneficiaries and suppliers of agricultural price forecasts. They use this information to establish a proper agricultural policy, and hence, the forecasts affect social welfare and systematic errors in forecasts could lead to a misallocation of scarce resources. Various empirical approaches have been applied to forecast commodity prices that have used different methodologies. Most commonly-used approaches to forecast commodity sectors depend on classical time series models that assume values of the response variables are precise which is quite often not true in reality. Recently, this literature has mostly evolved to a consideration of fuzzy time series models that provide more flexibility in terms of the classical time series models assumptions such as stationarity, and large sample size requirement. Besides, fuzzy modeling approach allows decision making with estimated values under incomplete information or uncertainty. A number of fuzzy time series models have been developed and implemented over the last decades; however, most of them are not appropriate for forecasting repeated and nonconsecutive transitions in the data. The modeling scheme used in this paper eliminates this problem by introducing Markov modeling approach that takes into account both the repeated and nonconsecutive transitions. Also, the determination of length of interval is crucial in terms of the accuracy of forecasts. The problem of determining the length of interval arbitrarily is overcome and a methodology to determine the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series to improve forecast accuracy is proposed. The specific purpose of this paper is to propose and investigate the potential of a new forecasting model that integrates methodologies for determining the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series and Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain model. Moreover, the accuracy of the forecasting performance of proposed integrated model is compared to different univariate time series models and the superiority of proposed method over competing methods in respect of modelling and forecasting on the basis of forecast evaluation criteria is demonstrated. The application is to daily corn and soybean prices observed at three commercially important North Carolina markets; Candor, Cofield and Roaring River for corn and Fayetteville, Cofield and Greenville City for soybeans respectively. One main conclusion from this paper is that using fuzzy logic improves the forecast performance and accuracy; the effectiveness and potential benefits of the proposed model is confirmed with small selection criteria value such MAPE. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of integrating fuzzy logic and nonarbitrary determination of length of interval for the reliability and accuracy of price forecasts. The empirical results represent a significant contribution to our understanding of the applicability of fuzzy modeling in commodity price forecasts.

Keywords: commodity, forecast, fuzzy, Markov

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751 Development of an EEG-Based Real-Time Emotion Recognition System on Edge AI

Authors: James Rigor Camacho, Wansu Lim

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Over the last few years, the development of new wearable and processing technologies has accelerated in order to harness physiological data such as electroencephalograms (EEGs) for EEG-based applications. EEG has been demonstrated to be a source of emotion recognition signals with the highest classification accuracy among physiological signals. However, when emotion recognition systems are used for real-time classification, the training unit is frequently left to run offline or in the cloud rather than working locally on the edge. That strategy has hampered research, and the full potential of using an edge AI device has yet to be realized. Edge AI devices are computers with high performance that can process complex algorithms. It is capable of collecting, processing, and storing data on its own. It can also analyze and apply complicated algorithms like localization, detection, and recognition on a real-time application, making it a powerful embedded device. The NVIDIA Jetson series, specifically the Jetson Nano device, was used in the implementation. The cEEGrid, which is integrated to the open-source brain computer-interface platform (OpenBCI), is used to collect EEG signals. An EEG-based real-time emotion recognition system on Edge AI is proposed in this paper. To perform graphical spectrogram categorization of EEG signals and to predict emotional states based on input data properties, machine learning-based classifiers were used. Until the emotional state was identified, the EEG signals were analyzed using the K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) technique, which is a supervised learning system. In EEG signal processing, after each EEG signal has been received in real-time and translated from time to frequency domain, the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) technique is utilized to observe the frequency bands in each EEG signal. To appropriately show the variance of each EEG frequency band, power density, standard deviation, and mean are calculated and employed. The next stage is to identify the features that have been chosen to predict emotion in EEG data using the K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) technique. Arousal and valence datasets are used to train the parameters defined by the KNN technique.Because classification and recognition of specific classes, as well as emotion prediction, are conducted both online and locally on the edge, the KNN technique increased the performance of the emotion recognition system on the NVIDIA Jetson Nano. Finally, this implementation aims to bridge the research gap on cost-effective and efficient real-time emotion recognition using a resource constrained hardware device, like the NVIDIA Jetson Nano. On the cutting edge of AI, EEG-based emotion identification can be employed in applications that can rapidly expand the research and implementation industry's use.

Keywords: edge AI device, EEG, emotion recognition system, supervised learning algorithm, sensors

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750 Patterns of Libido, Sexual Activity and Sexual Performance in Female Migraineurs

Authors: John Farr Rothrock

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Although migraine traditionally has been assumed to convey a relative decrease in libido, sexual activity and sexual performance, recent data have suggested that the female migraine population is far from homogenous in this regard. We sought to determine the levels of libido, sexual activity and sexual performance in the female migraine patient population both generally and according to clinical phenotype. In this single-blind study, a consecutive series of sexually active new female patients ages 25-55 initially presenting to a university-based headache clinic and having a >1 year history of migraine were asked to complete anonymously a survey assessing their sexual histories generally and as they related to their headache disorder and the 19-item Female Sexual Function Index (FSFI). To serve as 2 separate control groups, 100 sexually active females with no history of migraine and 100 female migraineurs from the general (non-clinic) population but matched for age, marital status, educational background and socioeconomic status completed a similar survey. Over a period of 3 months, 188 consecutive migraine patients were invited to participate. Twenty declined, and 28 of the remaining 160 potential subjects failed to meet the inclusion criterion utilized for “sexually active” (ie, heterosexual intercourse at a frequency of > once per month in each of the preceding 6 months). In all groups younger age (p<.005), higher educational level attained (p<.05) and higher socioeconomic status (p<.025) correlated with a higher monthly frequency of intercourse and a higher likelihood of intercourse resulting in orgasm. Relative to the 100 control subjects with no history of migraine, the two migraine groups (total n=232) reported a lower monthly frequency of intercourse and recorded a lower FSFI score (both p<.025), but the contribution to this difference came primarily from the chronic migraine (CM) subgroup (n=92). Patients with low frequency episodic migraine (LFEM) and mid frequency episodic migraine (MFEM) reported a higher FSFI score, higher monthly frequency of intercourse, higher likelihood of intercourse resulting in orgasm and higher likelihood of multiple active sex partners than controls. All migraine subgroups reported a decreased likelihood of engaging in intercourse during an active migraine attack, but relative to the CM subgroup (8/92=9%), a higher proportion of patients in the LFEM (12/49=25%), MFEM (14/67=21%) and high frequency episodic migraine (HFEM: 6/14=43%) subgroups reported utilizing intercourse - and orgasm specifically - as a means of potentially terminating a migraine attack. In the clinic vs no-clinic groups there were no significant differences in the dependent variables assessed. Research subjects with LFEM and MFEM may report a level of libido, frequency of intercourse and likelihood of orgasm-associated intercourse that exceeds what is reported by age-matched controls free of migraine. Many patients with LFEM, MFEM and HFEM appear to utilize intercourse/orgasm as a means to potentially terminate an acute migraine attack.

Keywords: migraine, female, libido, sexual activity, phenotype

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749 Physicochemical-Mechanical, Thermal and Rheological Properties Analysis of Pili Tree (Canarium Ovatum) Resin as Aircraft Integral Fuel Tank Sealant

Authors: Mark Kennedy, E. Bantugon, Noruane A. Daileg

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Leaks arising from aircraft fuel tanks is a protracted problem for the aircraft manufacturers, operators, and maintenance crews. It principally arises from stress, structural defects, or degraded sealants as the aircraft age. It can be ignited by different sources, which can result in catastrophic flight and consequences, exhibiting a major drain both on time and budget. In order to mitigate and eliminate this kind of problem, the researcher produced an experimental sealant having a base material of natural tree resin, the Pili Tree Resin. Aside from producing an experimental sealant, the main objective of this research is to analyze its physical, chemical, mechanical, thermal, and rheological properties, which is beneficial and effective for specific aircraft parts, particularly the integral fuel tank. The experimental method of research was utilized in this study since it is a product invention. This study comprises two parts, specifically the Optimization Process and the Characterization Process. In the Optimization Process, the experimental sealant was subjected to the Flammability Test, an important test and consideration according to 14 Code of Federal Regulation Appendix N, Part 25 - Fuel Tank Flammability Exposure and Reliability Analysis, to get the most suitable formulation. Followed by the Characterization Process, where the formulated experimental sealant has undergone thirty-eight (38) different standard testing including Organoleptic, Instrumental Color Measurement Test, Smoothness of Appearance Test, Miscibility Test, Boiling Point Test, Flash Point Test, Curing Time, Adhesive Test, Toxicity Test, Shore A Hardness Test, Compressive Strength, Shear Strength, Static Bending Strength, Tensile Strength, Peel Strength Test, Knife Test, Adhesion by Tape Test, Leakage Test), Drip Test, Thermogravimetry-Differential Thermal Analysis (TG-DTA), Differential Scanning Calorimetry, Calorific Value, Viscosity Test, Creep Test, and Anti-Sag Resistance Test to determine and analyze the five (5) material properties of the sealant. The numerical values of the mentioned tests are determined using product application, testing, and calculation. These values are then used to calculate the efficiency of the experimental sealant. Accordingly, this efficiency is the means of comparison between the experimental and commercial sealant. Based on the results of the different standard testing conducted, the experimental sealant exceeded all the data results of the commercial sealant. This result shows that the physicochemical-mechanical, thermal, and rheological properties of the experimental sealant are far more effective as an aircraft integral fuel tank sealant alternative in comparison to the commercial sealant. Therefore, Pili Tree possesses a new role and function: a source of ingredients in sealant production.

Keywords: Aircraft Integral Fuel Tank, Physicochemi-mechanical, Pili Tree Resin, Properties, Rheological, Sealant, Thermal

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748 Patterns and Predictors of Intended Service Use among Frail Older Adults in Urban China

Authors: Yuanyuan Fu

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Background and Purpose: Along with the change of society and economy, the traditional home function of old people has gradually weakened in the contemporary China. Acknowledging these situations, to better meet old people’s needs on formal services and improve the quality of later life, this study seeks to identify patterns of intended service use among frail old people living in the communities and examined determinants that explain heterogeneous variations in old people’s intended service use patterns. Additionally, this study also tested the relationship between culture value and intended service use patterns and the mediating role of enabling factors in terms of culture value and intended service use patterns. Methods:Participants were recruited from Haidian District, Beijing, China in 2015. The multi-stage sampling method was adopted to select sub-districts, communities and old people aged 70 years old or older. After screening, 577 old people with limitations in daily life, were successfully interviewed. After data cleaning, 550 samples were included for data analysis. This study establishes a conceptual framework based on the Anderson Model (including predisposing factors, enabling factors and need factors), and further developed it by adding culture value factors (including attitudes towards filial piety and attitudes towards social face). Using a latent class analysis (LCA), this study classifies overall patterns of old people’s formal service utilization. Fourteen types of formal services were taken into account, including housework, voluntary support, transportation, home-delivered meals, and home-delivery medical care, elderly’s canteen and day-care center/respite care and so on. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to examine the direct effect of culture value on service use pattern, and the mediating effect of the enabling factors. Results: The LCA classified a hierarchical structure of service use patterns: multiple intended service use (N=69, 23%), selective intended service use (N=129, 23%), and light intended service use (N=352, 64%). Through SEM, after controlling predisposing factors and need factors, the results showed the significant direct effect of culture value on older people’s intended service use patterns. Enabling factors had a partial mediation effect on the relationship between culture value and the patterns. Conclusions and Implications: Differentiation of formal services may be important for meeting frail old people’s service needs and distributing program resources by identifying target populations for intervention, which may make reference to specific interventions to better support frail old people. Additionally, culture value had a unique direct effect on the intended service use patterns of frail old people in China, enriching our theoretical understanding of sources of culture value and their impacts. The findings also highlighted the mediation effects of enabling factors on the relationship between culture value factors and intended service use patterns. This study suggests that researchers and service providers should pay more attention to the important role of culture value factors in contributing to intended service use patterns and also be more sensitive to the mediating effect of enabling factors when discussing the relationship between culture value and the patterns.

Keywords: frail old people, intended service use pattern, culture value, enabling factors, contemporary China, latent class analysis

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747 Sugar-Induced Stabilization Effect of Protein Structure

Authors: Mitsuhiro Hirai, Satoshi Ajito, Nobutaka Shimizu, Noriyuki Igarashi, Hiroki Iwase, Shinichi Takata

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Sugars and polyols are known to be bioprotectants preventing such as protein denaturation and enzyme deactivation and widely used as a nontoxic additive in various industrial and medical products. The mechanism of their protective actions has been explained by specific bindings between biological components and additives, changes in solvent viscosities, and surface tension and free energy changes upon transfer of those components into additive solutions. On the other hand, some organisms having tolerances against extreme environment produce stress proteins and/or accumulate sugars in cells, which is called cryptobiosis. In particular, trehalose has been drawing attention relevant to cryptobiosis under external stress such as high or low temperature, drying, osmotic pressure, and so on. The function of cryptobiosis by trehalose has been explained relevant to the restriction of the intra-and/or-inter-molecular movement by vitrification or from the replacement of water molecule by trehalose. Previous results suggest that the structure and interaction between sugar and water are a key determinant for understanding cryptobiosis. Recently, we have shown direct evidence that the protein hydration (solvation) and structural stability against chemical and thermal denaturation significantly depend on sugar species and glycerol. Sugar and glycerol molecules tend to be preferentially or weakly excluded from the protein surface and preserved the native protein hydration shell. Due to the protective action of the protein hydration shell by those molecules, the protein structure is stabilized against chemical (guanidinium chloride) and thermal denaturation. The protective action depends on sugar species. To understand the above trend and difference in detail, it is essentially important to clarify the characteristics of solutions containing those additives. In this study, by using wide-angle X-ray scattering technique covering a wide spatial region (~3-120 Å), we have clarified structures of sugar solutions with the concentration from 5% w/w to 65% w/w. The sugars measured in the present study were monosaccharides (glucose, fructose, mannose) and disaccharides (sucrose, trehalose, maltose). Due to observed scattering data with a wide spatial resolution, we have succeeded in obtaining information on the internal structure of individual sugar molecules and on the correlation between them. Every sugar gradually shortened the average inter-molecular distance as the concentration increased. The inter-molecular interaction between sugar molecules was essentially showed an exclusive tendency for every sugar, which appeared as the presence of a repulsive correlation hole. This trend was more weakly seen for trehalose compared to other sugars. The intermolecular distance and spread of individual molecule clearly showed the dependence of sugar species. We will discuss the relation between the characteristic of sugar solution and its protective action of biological materials.

Keywords: hydration, protein, sugar, X-ray scattering

Procedia PDF Downloads 150
746 Current Applications of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Chest Radiology

Authors: Angelis P. Barlampas

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Learning Objectives: The purpose of this study is to inform briefly the reader about the applications of AI in chest radiology. Background: Currently, there are 190 FDA-approved radiology AI applications, with 42 (22%) pertaining specifically to thoracic radiology. Imaging findings OR Procedure details Aids of AI in chest radiology1: Detects and segments pulmonary nodules. Subtracts bone to provide an unobstructed view of the underlying lung parenchyma and provides further information on nodule characteristics, such as nodule location, nodule two-dimensional size or three dimensional (3D) volume, change in nodule size over time, attenuation data (i.e., mean, minimum, and/or maximum Hounsfield units [HU]), morphological assessments, or combinations of the above. Reclassifies indeterminate pulmonary nodules into low or high risk with higher accuracy than conventional risk models. Detects pleural effusion . Differentiates tension pneumothorax from nontension pneumothorax. Detects cardiomegaly, calcification, consolidation, mediastinal widening, atelectasis, fibrosis and pneumoperitoneum. Localises automatically vertebrae segments, labels ribs and detects rib fractures. Measures the distance from the tube tip to the carina and localizes both endotracheal tubes and central vascular lines. Detects consolidation and progression of parenchymal diseases such as pulmonary fibrosis or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).Can evaluate lobar volumes. Identifies and labels pulmonary bronchi and vasculature and quantifies air-trapping. Offers emphysema evaluation. Provides functional respiratory imaging, whereby high-resolution CT images are post-processed to quantify airflow by lung region and may be used to quantify key biomarkers such as airway resistance, air-trapping, ventilation mapping, lung and lobar volume, and blood vessel and airway volume. Assesses the lung parenchyma by way of density evaluation. Provides percentages of tissues within defined attenuation (HU) ranges besides furnishing automated lung segmentation and lung volume information. Improves image quality for noisy images with built-in denoising function. Detects emphysema, a common condition seen in patients with history of smoking and hyperdense or opacified regions, thereby aiding in the diagnosis of certain pathologies, such as COVID-19 pneumonia. It aids in cardiac segmentation and calcium detection, aorta segmentation and diameter measurements, and vertebral body segmentation and density measurements. Conclusion: The future is yet to come, but AI already is a helpful tool for the daily practice in radiology. It is assumed, that the continuing progression of the computerized systems and the improvements in software algorithms , will redder AI into the second hand of the radiologist.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, chest imaging, nodule detection, automated diagnoses

Procedia PDF Downloads 67
745 A Methodology of Using Fuzzy Logics and Data Analytics to Estimate the Life Cycle Indicators of Solar Photovoltaics

Authors: Thor Alexis Sazon, Alexander Guzman-Urbina, Yasuhiro Fukushima

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This study outlines the method of how to develop a surrogate life cycle model based on fuzzy logic using three fuzzy inference methods: (1) the conventional Fuzzy Inference System (FIS), (2) the hybrid system of Data Analytics and Fuzzy Inference (DAFIS), which uses data clustering for defining the membership functions, and (3) the Adaptive-Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), a combination of fuzzy inference and artificial neural network. These methods were demonstrated with a case study where the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of solar photovoltaic (PV) were estimated using Solar Irradiation, Module Efficiency, and Performance Ratio as inputs. The effects of using different fuzzy inference types, either Sugeno- or Mamdani-type, and of changing the number of input membership functions to the error between the calibration data and the model-generated outputs were also illustrated. The solution spaces of the three methods were consequently examined with a sensitivity analysis. ANFIS exhibited the lowest error while DAFIS gave slightly lower errors compared to FIS. Increasing the number of input membership functions helped with error reduction in some cases but, at times, resulted in the opposite. Sugeno-type models gave errors that are slightly lower than those of the Mamdani-type. While ANFIS is superior in terms of error minimization, it could generate solutions that are questionable, i.e. the negative GWP values of the Solar PV system when the inputs were all at the upper end of their range. This shows that the applicability of the ANFIS models highly depends on the range of cases at which it was calibrated. FIS and DAFIS generated more intuitive trends in the sensitivity runs. DAFIS demonstrated an optimal design point wherein increasing the input values does not improve the GWP and LCOE anymore. In the absence of data that could be used for calibration, conventional FIS presents a knowledge-based model that could be used for prediction. In the PV case study, conventional FIS generated errors that are just slightly higher than those of DAFIS. The inherent complexity of a Life Cycle study often hinders its widespread use in the industry and policy-making sectors. While the methodology does not guarantee a more accurate result compared to those generated by the Life Cycle Methodology, it does provide a relatively simpler way of generating knowledge- and data-based estimates that could be used during the initial design of a system.

Keywords: solar photovoltaic, fuzzy logic, inference system, artificial neural networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 159
744 The Home as Memory Palace: Three Case Studies of Artistic Representations of the Relationship between Individual and Collective Memory and the Home

Authors: Laura M. F. Bertens

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The houses we inhabit are important containers of memory. As homes, they take on meaning for those who live inside, and memories of family life become intimately tied up with rooms, windows, and gardens. Each new family creates a new layer of meaning, resulting in a palimpsest of family memory. These houses function quite literally as memory palaces, as a walk through a childhood home will show; each room conjures up images of past events. Over time, these personal memories become woven together with the cultural memory of countries and generations. The importance of the home is a central theme in art, and several contemporary artists have a special interest in the relationship between memory and the home. This paper analyses three case studies in order to get a deeper understanding of the ways in which the home functions and feels like a memory palace, both on an individual and on a collective, cultural level. Close reading of the artworks is performed on the theoretical intersection between Art History and Cultural Memory Studies. The first case study concerns works from the exhibition Mnemosyne by the artist duo Anne and Patrick Poirier. These works combine interests in architecture, archaeology, and psychology. Models of cities and fantastical architectural designs resemble physical structures (such as the brain), architectural metaphors used in representing the concept of memory (such as the memory palace), and archaeological remains, essential to our shared cultural memories. Secondly, works by Do Ho Suh will help us understand the relationship between the home and memory on a far more personal level; outlines of rooms from his former homes, made of colourful, transparent fabric and combined into new structures, provide an insight into the way these spaces retain individual memories. The spaces have been emptied out, and only the husks remain. Although the remnants of walls, light switches, doors, electricity outlets, etc. are standard, mass-produced elements found in many homes and devoid of inherent meaning, together they remind us of the emotional significance attached to the muscle memory of spaces we once inhabited. The third case study concerns an exhibition in a house put up for sale on the Dutch real estate website Funda. The house was built in 1933 by a Jewish family fleeing from Germany, and the father and son were later deported and killed. The artists Anne van As and CA Wertheim have used the history and memories of the house as a starting point for an exhibition called (T)huis, a combination of the Dutch words for home and house. This case study illustrates the way houses become containers of memories; each new family ‘resets’ the meaning of a house, but traces of earlier memories remain. The exhibition allows us to explore the transition of individual memories into shared cultural memory, in this case of WWII. Taken together, the analyses provide a deeper understanding of different facets of the relationship between the home and memory, both individual and collective, and the ways in which art can represent these.

Keywords: Anne and Patrick Poirier, cultural memory, Do Ho Suh, home, memory palace

Procedia PDF Downloads 155
743 Elastoplastic Modified Stillinger Weber-Potential Based Discretized Virtual Internal Bond and Its Application to the Dynamic Fracture Propagation

Authors: Dina Kon Mushid, Kabutakapua Kakanda, Dibu Dave Mbako

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The failure of material usually involves elastoplastic deformation and fracturing. Continuum mechanics can effectively deal with plastic deformation by using a yield function and the flow rule. At the same time, it has some limitations in dealing with the fracture problem since it is a theory based on the continuous field hypothesis. The lattice model can simulate the fracture problem very well, but it is inadequate for dealing with plastic deformation. Based on the discretized virtual internal bond model (DVIB), this paper proposes a lattice model that can account for plasticity. DVIB is a lattice method that considers material to comprise bond cells. Each bond cell may have any geometry with a finite number of bonds. The two-body or multi-body potential can characterize the strain energy of a bond cell. The two-body potential leads to the fixed Poisson ratio, while the multi-body potential can overcome the limitation of the fixed Poisson ratio. In the present paper, the modified Stillinger-Weber (SW), a multi-body potential, is employed to characterize the bond cell energy. The SW potential is composed of two parts. One part is the two-body potential that describes the interatomic interactions between particles. Another is the three-body potential that represents the bond angle interactions between particles. Because the SW interaction can represent the bond stretch and bond angle contribution, the SW potential-based DVIB (SW-DVIB) can represent the various Poisson ratios. To embed the plasticity in the SW-DVIB, the plasticity is considered in the two-body part of the SW potential. It is done by reducing the bond stiffness to a lower level once the bond reaches the yielding point. While before the bond reaches the yielding point, the bond is elastic. When the bond deformation exceeds the yielding point, the bond stiffness is softened to a lower value. When unloaded, irreversible deformation occurs. With the bond length increasing to a critical value, termed the failure bond length, the bond fails. The critical failure bond length is related to the cell size and the macro fracture energy. By this means, the fracture energy is conserved so that the cell size sensitivity problem is relieved to a great extent. In addition, the plasticity and the fracture are also unified at the bond level. To make the DVIB able to simulate different Poisson ratios, the three-body part of the SW potential is kept elasto-brittle. The bond angle can bear the moment before the bond angle increment is smaller than a critical value. By this method, the SW-DVIB can simulate the plastic deformation and the fracturing process of material with various Poisson ratios. The elastoplastic SW-DVIB is used to simulate the plastic deformation of a material, the plastic fracturing process, and the tunnel plastic deformation. It has been shown that the current SW-DVIB method is straightforward in simulating both elastoplastic deformation and plastic fracture.

Keywords: lattice model, discretized virtual internal bond, elastoplastic deformation, fracture, modified stillinger-weber potential

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742 Fatigue Influence on the Residual Stress State in Shot Peened Duplex Stainless Steel

Authors: P. D. Pedrosa, J. M. A. Rebello, M. P. Cindra Fonseca

Abstract:

Duplex stainless steels (DSS) exhibit a biphasic microstructure consisting of austenite and delta ferrite. Their high resistance to oxidation, and corrosion, even in H2S containing environments, allied to low cost when compared to conventional stainless steel, are some properties which make this material very attractive for several industrial applications. However, several of these industrial applications imposes cyclic loading to the equipments and in consequence fatigue damage needs to be a concern. A well-known way of improving the fatigue life of a component is by introducing compressive residual stress in its surface. Shot peening is an industrial working process which brings the material directly beneath component surface in a high mechanical compressive state, so inhibiting fatigue crack initiation. However, one must take into account the fact that the cyclic loading itself can reduce and even suppress these residual stresses, thus having undesirable consequences in the process of improving fatigue life by the introduction of compressive residual stresses. In the present work, shot peening was used to introduce residual stresses in several DSS samples. These were thereafter submitted to three different fatigue regimes: low, medium and high cycle fatigue. The evolution of the residual stress during loading were then examined on both surface and subsurface of the samples. It was used the DSS UNS S31803, with microstructure composed of 49% austenite and 51% ferrite. The treatment of shot peening was accomplished by the application of blasting in two Almen intensities of 0.25 and 0.39A. The residual stresses were measured by X-ray diffraction using the double exposure method and a portable equipment with CrK radiation and the (211) diffracting plane for the austenite phase and the (220) plane for the ferrite phase. It is known that residual stresses may arise when two regions of the same material experienced different degrees of plastic deformation. When these regions are separated in respect to each other on a scale that is large compared to the material's microstructure they are called macro stresses. In contrast, microstresses can largely vary over distances which are small comparable to the scale of the material's microstructure and must balance zero between the phases present. In the present work, special attention will be paid to the measurement of residual microstresses. Residual stress measurements were carried out in test pieces submitted to low, medium and high-cycle fatigue, in both longitudinal and transverse direction of the test pieces. It was found that after shot peening, the residual microstress is tensile in the austenite and compressive in the ferrite phases. It was hypothesized that the hardening behavior of the austenite after shot peening was probably due to its higher nitrogen content. Fatigue cycling can effectively change this stress state but this effect was found to be dependent of the shot peening intensity was well as the fatigue range.

Keywords: residual stresses, fatigue, duplex steel, shot peening

Procedia PDF Downloads 221
741 Investigation and Comprehensive Benefit Analysis of 11 Typical Polar-Based Agroforestry Models Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process in Anhui Province, Eastern China

Authors: Zhihua Cao, Hongfei Zhao, Zhongneng Wu

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The development of polar-based agroforestry was necessary due to the influence of the timber market environment in China, which can promote the coordinated development of forestry and agriculture, and gain remarkable ecological, economic and social benefits. The main agroforestry models of the main poplar planting area in Huaibei plain and along the Yangtze River plain were carried out. 11 typical management models of poplar were selected to sum up: pure poplar forest, poplar-rape-soybean, poplar-wheat-soybean, poplar-rape-cotton, poplar-wheat, poplar-chicken, poplar-duck, poplar-sheep, poplar-Agaricus blazei, poplar-oil peony, poplar-fish, represented by M0-M10, respectively. 12 indexes related with economic, ecological and social benefits (annual average cost, net income, ratio of output to investment, payback period of investment, land utilization ratio, utilization ratio of light energy, improvement and system stability of ecological and production environment, product richness, labor capacity, cultural quality of labor force, sustainability) were screened out to carry on the comprehensive evaluation and analysis to 11 kinds of typical agroforestry models based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The results showed that the economic benefit of each agroforestry model was in the order of: M8 > M6 > M9 > M7 > M5 > M10 > M4 > M1 > M2 > M3 > M0. The economic benefit of poplar-A. blazei model was the highest (332, 800 RMB / hm²), followed by poplar-duck and poplar-oil peony model (109, 820RMB /hm², 5, 7226 RMB /hm²). The order of comprehensive benefit was: M8 > M4 > M9 > M6 > M1 > M2 > M3 > M7 > M5 > M10 > M0. The economic benefit and comprehensive benefit of each agroforestry model were higher than that of pure poplar forest. The comprehensive benefit of poplar-A. blazei model was the highest, and that of poplar-wheat model ranked second, while its economic benefit was not high. Next were poplar-oil peony and poplar-duck models. It was suggested that the model of poplar-wheat should be adopted in the plain along the Yangtze River, and the whole cycle mode of poplar-grain, popalr-A. blazei, or poplar-oil peony should be adopted in Huaibei plain, northern Anhui. Furthermore, wheat, rape, and soybean are the main crops before the stand was closed; the agroforestry model of edible fungus or Chinese herbal medicine can be carried out when the stand was closed in order to maximize the comprehensive benefit. The purpose of this paper is to provide a reference for forest farmers in the selection of poplar agroforestry model in the future and to provide the basic data for the sustainable and efficient study of poplar agroforestry in Anhui province, eastern China.

Keywords: agroforestry, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), comprehensive benefit, model, poplar

Procedia PDF Downloads 159
740 Classification of ECG Signal Based on Mixture of Linear and Non-Linear Features

Authors: Mohammad Karimi Moridani, Mohammad Abdi Zadeh, Zahra Shahiazar Mazraeh

Abstract:

In recent years, the use of intelligent systems in biomedical engineering has increased dramatically, especially in the diagnosis of various diseases. Also, due to the relatively simple recording of the electrocardiogram signal (ECG), this signal is a good tool to show the function of the heart and diseases associated with it. The aim of this paper is to design an intelligent system for automatically detecting a normal electrocardiogram signal from abnormal one. Using this diagnostic system, it is possible to identify a person's heart condition in a very short time and with high accuracy. The data used in this article are from the Physionet database, available in 2016 for use by researchers to provide the best method for detecting normal signals from abnormalities. Data is of both genders and the data recording time varies between several seconds to several minutes. All data is also labeled normal or abnormal. Due to the low positional accuracy and ECG signal time limit and the similarity of the signal in some diseases with the normal signal, the heart rate variability (HRV) signal was used. Measuring and analyzing the heart rate variability with time to evaluate the activity of the heart and differentiating different types of heart failure from one another is of interest to the experts. In the preprocessing stage, after noise cancelation by the adaptive Kalman filter and extracting the R wave by the Pan and Tampkinz algorithm, R-R intervals were extracted and the HRV signal was generated. In the process of processing this paper, a new idea was presented that, in addition to using the statistical characteristics of the signal to create a return map and extraction of nonlinear characteristics of the HRV signal due to the nonlinear nature of the signal. Finally, the artificial neural networks widely used in the field of ECG signal processing as well as distinctive features were used to classify the normal signals from abnormal ones. To evaluate the efficiency of proposed classifiers in this paper, the area under curve ROC was used. The results of the simulation in the MATLAB environment showed that the AUC of the MLP and SVM neural network was 0.893 and 0.947, respectively. As well as, the results of the proposed algorithm in this paper indicated that the more use of nonlinear characteristics in normal signal classification of the patient showed better performance. Today, research is aimed at quantitatively analyzing the linear and non-linear or descriptive and random nature of the heart rate variability signal, because it has been shown that the amount of these properties can be used to indicate the health status of the individual's heart. The study of nonlinear behavior and dynamics of the heart's neural control system in the short and long-term provides new information on how the cardiovascular system functions, and has led to the development of research in this field. Given that the ECG signal contains important information and is one of the common tools used by physicians to diagnose heart disease, but due to the limited accuracy of time and the fact that some information about this signal is hidden from the viewpoint of physicians, the design of the intelligent system proposed in this paper can help physicians with greater speed and accuracy in the diagnosis of normal and patient individuals and can be used as a complementary system in the treatment centers.

Keywords: neart rate variability, signal processing, linear and non-linear features, classification methods, ROC Curve

Procedia PDF Downloads 257
739 Understanding New Zealand’s 19th Century Timber Churches: Techniques in Extracting and Applying Underlying Procedural Rules

Authors: Samuel McLennan, Tane Moleta, Andre Brown, Marc Aurel Schnabel

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The development of Ecclesiastical buildings within New Zealand has produced some unique design characteristics that take influence from both international styles and local building methods. What this research looks at is how procedural modelling can be used to define such common characteristics and understand how they are shared and developed within different examples of a similar architectural style. This will be achieved through the creation of procedural digital reconstructions of the various timber Gothic Churches built during the 19th century in the city of Wellington, New Zealand. ‘Procedural modelling’ is a digital modelling technique that has been growing in popularity, particularly within the game and film industry, as well as other fields such as industrial design and architecture. Such a design method entails the creation of a parametric ‘ruleset’ that can be easily adjusted to produce many variations of geometry, rather than a single geometry as is typically found in traditional CAD software. Key precedents within this area of digital heritage includes work by Haegler, Müller, and Gool, Nicholas Webb and Andre Brown, and most notably Mark Burry. What these precedents all share is how the forms of the reconstructed architecture have been generated using computational rules and an understanding of the architects’ geometric reasoning. This is also true within this research as Gothic architecture makes use of only a select range of forms (such as the pointed arch) that can be accurately replicated using the same standard geometric techniques originally used by the architect. The methodology of this research involves firstly establishing a sample group of similar buildings, documenting the existing samples, researching any lost samples to find evidence such as architectural plans, photos, and written descriptions, and then culminating all the findings into a single 3D procedural asset within the software ‘Houdini’. The end result will be an adjustable digital model that contains all the architectural components of the sample group, such as the various naves, buttresses, and windows. These components can then be selected and arranged to create visualisations of the sample group. Because timber gothic churches in New Zealand share many details between designs, the created collection of architectural components can also be used to approximate similar designs not included in the sample group, such as designs found beyond the Wellington Region. This creates an initial library of architectural components that can be further expanded on to encapsulate as wide of a sample size as desired. Such a methodology greatly improves upon the efficiency and adjustability of digital modelling compared to current practices found in digital heritage reconstruction. It also gives greater accuracy to speculative design, as a lack of evidence for lost structures can be approximated using components from still existing or better-documented examples. This research will also bring attention to the cultural significance these types of buildings have within the local area, addressing the public’s general unawareness of architectural history that is identified in the Wellington based research ‘Moving Images in Digital Heritage’ by Serdar Aydin et al.

Keywords: digital forensics, digital heritage, gothic architecture, Houdini, procedural modelling

Procedia PDF Downloads 124
738 The Seller’s Sense: Buying-Selling Perspective Affects the Sensitivity to Expected-Value Differences

Authors: Taher Abofol, Eldad Yechiam, Thorsten Pachur

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In four studies, we examined whether seller and buyers differ not only in subjective price levels for objects (i.e., the endowment effect) but also in their relative accuracy given objects varying in expected value. If, as has been proposed, sellers stand to accrue a more substantial loss than buyers do, then their pricing decisions should be more sensitive to expected-value differences between objects. This is implied by loss aversion due to the steeper slope of prospect theory’s value function for losses than for gains, as well as by loss attention account, which posits that losses increase the attention invested in a task. Both accounts suggest that losses increased sensitivity to relative values of different objects, which should result in better alignment of pricing decisions to the objective value of objects on the part of sellers. Under loss attention, this characteristic should only emerge under certain boundary conditions. In Study 1 a published dataset was reanalyzed, in which 152 participants indicated buying or selling prices for monetary lotteries with different expected values. Relative EV sensitivity was calculated for participants as the Spearman rank correlation between their pricing decisions for each of the lotteries and the lotteries' expected values. An ANOVA revealed a main effect of perspective (sellers versus buyers), F(1,150) = 85.3, p < .0001 with greater EV sensitivity for sellers. Study 2 examined the prediction (implied by loss attention) that the positive effect of losses on performance emerges particularly under conditions of time constraints. A published dataset was reanalyzed, where 84 participants were asked to provide selling and buying prices for monetary lotteries in three deliberations time conditions (5, 10, 15 seconds). As in Study 1, an ANOVA revealed greater EV sensitivity for sellers than for buyers, F(1,82) = 9.34, p = .003. Importantly, there was also an interaction of perspective by deliberation time. Post-hoc tests revealed that there were main effects of perspective both in the condition with 5s deliberation time, and in the condition with 10s deliberation time, but not in the 15s condition. Thus, sellers’ EV-sensitivity advantage disappeared with extended deliberation. Study 3 replicated the design of study 1 but administered the task three times to test if the effect decays with repeated presentation. The results showed that the difference between buyers and sellers’ EV sensitivity was replicated in repeated task presentations. Study 4 examined the loss attention prediction that EV-sensitivity differences can be eliminated by manipulations that reduce the differential attention investment of sellers and buyers. This was carried out by randomly mixing selling and buying trials for each participant. The results revealed no differences in EV sensitivity between selling and buying trials. The pattern of results is consistent with an attentional resource-based account of the differences between sellers and buyers. Thus, asking people to price, an object from a seller's perspective rather than the buyer's improves the relative accuracy of pricing decisions; subtle changes in the framing of one’s perspective in a trading negotiation may improve price accuracy.

Keywords: decision making, endowment effect, pricing, loss aversion, loss attention

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737 The Scenario Analysis of Shale Gas Development in China by Applying Natural Gas Pipeline Optimization Model

Authors: Meng Xu, Alexis K. H. Lau, Ming Xu, Bill Barron, Narges Shahraki

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As an emerging unconventional energy, shale gas has been an economically viable step towards a cleaner energy future in U.S. China also has shale resources that are estimated to be potentially the largest in the world. In addition, China has enormous unmet for a clean alternative to substitute coal. Nonetheless, the geological complexity of China’s shale basins and issues of water scarcity potentially impose serious constraints on shale gas development in China. Further, even if China could replicate to a significant degree the U.S. shale gas boom, China faces the problem of transporting the gas efficiently overland with its limited pipeline network throughput capacity and coverage. The aim of this study is to identify the potential bottlenecks in China’s gas transmission network, as well as to examine the shale gas development affecting particular supply locations and demand centers. We examine this through application of three scenarios with projecting domestic shale gas supply by 2020: optimistic, medium and conservative shale gas supply, taking references from the International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) projections and China’s shale gas development plans. Separately we project the gas demand at provincial level, since shale gas will have more significant impact regionally than nationally. To quantitatively assess each shale gas development scenario, we formulated a gas pipeline optimization model. We used ArcGIS to generate the connectivity parameters and pipeline segment length. Other parameters are collected from provincial “twelfth-five year” plans and “China Oil and Gas Pipeline Atlas”. The multi-objective optimization model uses GAMs and Matlab. It aims to minimize the demands that are unable to be met, while simultaneously seeking to minimize total gas supply and transmission costs. The results indicate that, even if the primary objective is to meet the projected gas demand rather than cost minimization, there’s a shortfall of 9% in meeting total demand under the medium scenario. Comparing the results between the optimistic and medium supply of shale gas scenarios, almost half of the shale gas produced in Sichuan province and Chongqing won’t be able to be transmitted out by pipeline. On the demand side, the Henan province and Shanghai gas demand gap could be filled as much as 82% and 39% respectively, with increased shale gas supply. To conclude, the pipeline network in China is currently not sufficient in meeting the projected natural gas demand in 2020 under medium and optimistic scenarios, indicating the need for substantial pipeline capacity expansion for some of the existing network, and the importance of constructing new pipelines from particular supply to demand sites. If the pipeline constraint is overcame, Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Henan’s gas demand gap could potentially be filled, and China could thereby reduce almost 25% its dependency on LNG imports under the optimistic scenario.

Keywords: energy policy, energy systematic analysis, scenario analysis, shale gas in China

Procedia PDF Downloads 280
736 The Implementation of Human Resource Information System in the Public Sector: An Exploratory Study of Perceived Benefits and Challenges

Authors: Aneeqa Suhail, Shabana Naveed

Abstract:

The public sector (in both developed and developing countries) has gone through various waves of radical reforms in recent decades. In Pakistan, under the influence of New Public Management(NPM) Reforms; best practices of private sector are introduced in the public sector to modernize public organizations. Human Resource Information System (HRIS) has been popular in the private sector and proven to be a successful system, therefore it is being adopted in the public sector too. However, implementation of private business practices in public organizations us very challenging due to differences in context. This implementation gets further critical in Pakistan due to a centralizing tendency and lack of autonomy in public organizations. Adoption of HRIS by public organizations in Pakistan raises several questions: What challenges are faced by public organizations in implementation of HRIS? Are benefits of HRIS such as efficiency, process integration and cost reduction achieved? How is the previous system improved with this change and what are the impacts? Yet, it is an under-researched topic, especially in public enterprises. This study contributes to the existing body of knowledge by empirically exploring benefits and challenges of implementation of HRIS in public organizations. The research adopts a case study approach and uses qualitative data based on in-depth interviews conducted at various levels in the hierarchy including top management, departmental heads and employees. The unit of analysis is LESCO, the Lahore Electric Supply Company, a state-owned entity that generates, transmits and distributes electricity to 4 big cities in Punjab, Pakistan. The findings of the study show that LESCO has not achieved the benefits of HRIS as established in literature. The implementation process remained quite slow and costly. Various functions of HR are still in isolation and integration is a big challenge for the organization. Although the data is automated, the previous system of manually record maintenance and paperwork is still in work, resulting in the presence of parallel practices. The findings also identified resistance to change from top management and labor workforce, lack of commitment and technical knowledge, and costly vendors as major barriers that affect the effective implementation of HRIS. The paper suggests some potential actions to overcome these barriers and to enhance effective implementation of HR-technology. The findings are explained in light of an institutional logics perspective. HRIS’ new logic of automated and integrated HR system is in sharp contrast with the prevailing logic of process-oriented manual data maintenance, leading to resistance to change and deadlock.

Keywords: human resource information system, technological changes, state-owned enterprise, implementation challenges

Procedia PDF Downloads 142
735 Benefits of The ALIAmide Palmitoyl-Glucosamine Co-Micronized with Curcumin for Osteoarthritis Pain: A Preclinical Study

Authors: Enrico Gugliandolo, Salvatore Cuzzocrea, Rosalia Crupi

Abstract:

Osteoarthritis (OA) is one of the most common chronic pain conditions in dogs and cats. OA pain is currently viewed as a mixed phenomenon involving both inflammatory and neuropathic mechanisms at the peripheral (joint) and central (spinal and supraspinal) levels. Oxidative stress has been implicated in OA pain. Although nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs are commonly prescribed for OA pain, they should be used with caution in pets because of adverse effects in the long term and controversial efficacy on neuropathic pain. An unmet need remains for safe and effective long-term treatments for OA pain. Palmitoyl-glucosamine (PGA) is an analogue of the ALIAamide palmitoylethanolamide, i.e., a body’s own endocannabinoid-like compound playing a sentinel role in nociception. PGA, especially in the micronized formulation, was shown safe and effective in OA pain. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of a co-micronized formulation of PGA with the natural antioxidant curcumin (PGA-cur) on OA pain. Ten Sprague-Dawley male rats were used for each treatment group. The University of Messina Review Board for the care and use of animals authorized the study. On day 0, rats were anesthetized (5.0% isoflurane in 100% O2) and received intra-articular injection of MIA (3 mg in 25 μl saline) in the right knee joint, with the left being injected an equal volume of saline. Starting the third day after MIA injection, treatments were administered orally three times per week for 21 days, at the following doses: PGA 20 mg/kg, curcumin 10 mg/kg, PGA-cur (2:1 ratio) 30 mg/kg. On day 0 and 3, 7, 14 and 21 days post-injection, mechanical allodynia was measured using a dynamic plantar Von Frey hair aesthesiometer and expressed as paw withdrawal threshold (PWT) and latency (PWL). Motor functional recovery of the rear limb was evaluated on the same time points by walking track analysis using the sciatic functional index. On day 21 post-MIA injection, the concentration of the following inflammatory and nociceptive mediators was measured in serum using commercial ELISA kits: tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α), interleukin-1 beta (IL-1β), nerve growth factor (NGF) and matrix metalloproteinase-1-3-9 (MMP-1, MMP-3, MMP-9). The results were analyzed by ANOVA followed by Bonferroni post-hoc test for multiple comparisons. Micronized PGA reduced neuropathic pain, as shown by the significant higher PWT and PWL values compared to vehicle group (p < 0.0001 for all the evaluated time points). The effect of PGA-cur was superior at all time points (p < 0.005). PGA-cur restored motor function already on day 14 (p < 0.005), while micronized PGA was effective a week later (D21). MIA-induced increase in the serum levels of all the investigated mediators was inhibited by PGA-cur (p < 0.01). PGA was also effective, except on IL-1 and MMP-3. Curcumin alone was inactive in all the experiments at any time point. The encouraging results suggest that PGA-cur may represent a valuable option in OA pain management and warrant further confirmation in well-powered clinical trials.

Keywords: ALIAmides, curcumin, osteoarthritis, palmitoyl-glucosamine

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734 Integrated Manufacture of Polymer and Conductive Tracks for Functional Objects Fabrication

Authors: Barbara Urasinska-Wojcik, Neil Chilton, Peter Todd, Christopher Elsworthy, Gregory J. Gibbons

Abstract:

The recent increase in the application of Additive Manufacturing (AM) of products has resulted in new demands on capability. The ability to integrate both form and function within printed objects is the next frontier in the 3D printing area. To move beyond prototyping into low volume production, we demonstrate a UK-designed and built AM hybrid system that combines polymer based structural deposition with digital deposition of electrically conductive elements. This hybrid manufacturing system is based on a multi-planar build approach to improve on many of the limitations associated with AM, such as poor surface finish, low geometric tolerance, and poor robustness. Specifically, the approach involves a multi-planar Material Extrusion (ME) process in which separated build stations with up to 5 axes of motion replace traditional horizontally-sliced layer modeling. The construction of multi-material architectures also involved using multiple print systems in order to combine both ME and digital deposition of conductive material. To demonstrate multi-material 3D printing, three thermoplastics, acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), polyamide 6,6/6 copolymers (CoPA) and polyamide 12 (PA) were used to print specimens, on top of which our high viscosity Ag-particulate ink was printed in a non-contact process, during which drop characteristics such as shape, velocity, and volume were assessed using a drop watching system. Spectroscopic analysis of these 3D printed materials in the IR region helped to determine the optimum in-situ curing system for implementation into the AM system to achieve improved adhesion and surface refinement. Thermal Analyses were performed to determine the printed materials glass transition temperature (Tg), stability and degradation behavior to find the optimum annealing conditions post printing. Electrical analysis of printed conductive tracks on polymer surfaces during mechanical testing (static tensile and 3-point bending and dynamic fatigue) was performed to assess the robustness of the electrical circuits. The tracks on CoPA, ABS, and PA exhibited low electrical resistance, and in case of PA resistance values of tracks remained unchanged across hundreds of repeated tensile cycles up to 0.5% strain amplitude. Our developed AM printer has the ability to fabricate fully functional objects in one build, including complex electronics. It enables product designers and manufacturers to produce functional saleable electronic products from a small format modular platform. It will make 3D printing better, faster and stronger.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, conductive tracks, hybrid 3D printer, integrated manufacture

Procedia PDF Downloads 162
733 Implementation of Deep Neural Networks for Pavement Condition Index Prediction

Authors: M. Sirhan, S. Bekhor, A. Sidess

Abstract:

In-service pavements deteriorate with time due to traffic wheel loads, environment, and climate conditions. Pavement deterioration leads to a reduction in their serviceability and structural behavior. Consequently, proper maintenance and rehabilitation (M&R) are necessary actions to keep the in-service pavement network at the desired level of serviceability. Due to resource and financial constraints, the pavement management system (PMS) prioritizes roads most in need of maintenance and rehabilitation action. It recommends a suitable action for each pavement based on the performance and surface condition of each road in the network. The pavement performance and condition are usually quantified and evaluated by different types of roughness-based and stress-based indices. Examples of such indices are Pavement Serviceability Index (PSI), Pavement Serviceability Ratio (PSR), Mean Panel Rating (MPR), Pavement Condition Rating (PCR), Ride Number (RN), Profile Index (PI), International Roughness Index (IRI), and Pavement Condition Index (PCI). PCI is commonly used in PMS as an indicator of the extent of the distresses on the pavement surface. PCI values range between 0 and 100; where 0 and 100 represent a highly deteriorated pavement and a newly constructed pavement, respectively. The PCI value is a function of distress type, severity, and density (measured as a percentage of the total pavement area). PCI is usually calculated iteratively using the 'Paver' program developed by the US Army Corps. The use of soft computing techniques, especially Artificial Neural Network (ANN), has become increasingly popular in the modeling of engineering problems. ANN techniques have successfully modeled the performance of the in-service pavements, due to its efficiency in predicting and solving non-linear relationships and dealing with an uncertain large amount of data. Typical regression models, which require a pre-defined relationship, can be replaced by ANN, which was found to be an appropriate tool for predicting the different pavement performance indices versus different factors as well. Subsequently, the objective of the presented study is to develop and train an ANN model that predicts the PCI values. The model’s input consists of percentage areas of 11 different damage types; alligator cracking, swelling, rutting, block cracking, longitudinal/transverse cracking, edge cracking, shoving, raveling, potholes, patching, and lane drop off, at three severity levels (low, medium, high) for each. The developed model was trained using 536,000 samples and tested on 134,000 samples. The samples were collected and prepared by The National Transport Infrastructure Company. The predicted results yielded satisfactory compliance with field measurements. The proposed model predicted PCI values with relatively low standard deviations, suggesting that it could be incorporated into the PMS for PCI determination. It is worth mentioning that the most influencing variables for PCI prediction are damages related to alligator cracking, swelling, rutting, and potholes.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, computer programming, pavement condition index, pavement management, performance prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 131
732 Chemical Technology Approach for Obtaining Carbon Structures Containing Reinforced Ceramic Materials Based on Alumina

Authors: T. Kuchukhidze, N. Jalagonia, T. Archuadze, G. Bokuchava

Abstract:

The growing scientific-technological progress in modern civilization causes actuality of producing construction materials which can successfully work in conditions of high temperature, radiation, pressure, speed, and chemically aggressive environment. Such extreme conditions can withstand very few types of materials and among them, ceramic materials are in the first place. Corundum ceramics is the most useful material for creation of constructive nodes and products of various purposes for its low cost, easy accessibility to raw materials and good combination of physical-chemical properties. However, ceramic composite materials have one disadvantage; they are less plastics and have lower toughness. In order to increase the plasticity, the ceramics are reinforced by various dopants, that reduces the growth of the cracks. It is shown, that adding of even small amount of carbon fibers and carbon nanotubes (CNT) as reinforcing material significantly improves mechanical properties of the products, keeping at the same time advantages of alundum ceramics. Graphene in composite material acts in the same way as inorganic dopants (MgO, ZrO2, SiC and others) and performs the role of aluminum oxide inhibitor, as it creates shell, that gives possibility to reduce sintering temperature and at the same time it acts as damper, because scattering of a shock wave takes place on carbon structures. Application of different structural modification of carbon (graphene, nanotube and others) as reinforced material, gives possibility to create multi-purpose highly requested composite materials based on alundum ceramics. In the present work offers simplified technology for obtaining of aluminum oxide ceramics, reinforced with carbon nanostructures, during which chemical modification with doping carbon nanostructures will be implemented in the process of synthesis of final powdery composite – Alumina. In charge doping carbon nanostructures connected to matrix substance with C-O-Al bonds, that provide their homogeneous spatial distribution. In ceramic obtained as a result of consolidation of such powders carbon fragments equally distributed in the entire matrix of aluminum oxide, that cause increase of bending strength and crack-resistance. The proposed way to prepare the charge simplifies the technological process, decreases energy consumption, synthesis duration and therefore requires less financial expenses. In the implementation of this work, modern instrumental methods were used: electronic and optical microscopy, X-ray structural and granulometric analysis, UV, IR, and Raman spectroscopy.

Keywords: ceramic materials, α-Al₂O₃, carbon nanostructures, composites, characterization, hot-pressing

Procedia PDF Downloads 116
731 Microfungi on Sandy Beaches: Potential Threats for People Enjoying Lakeside Recreation

Authors: Tomasz Balabanski, Anna Biedunkiewicz

Abstract:

Research on basic bacteriological and physicochemical parameters conducted by state institutions (Provincial Sanitary and Epidemiological Station and District Sanitary and Epidemiological Station) are limited to bathing waters under constant sanitary and epidemiological supervision. Unfortunately, no routine or monitoring tests are carried out for the presence of microfungi. This also applies to beach sand used for recreational purposes. The purpose of the planned own research was to determine the diversity of the mycobiota present on supervised and unsupervised sandy beaches, on the shores of lakes, of municipal baths used for recreation. The research material consisted of microfungi isolated from April to October 2019 from sandy beaches of supervised and unsupervised lakes located within the administrative boundaries of the city of Olsztyn (North-Eastern Poland, Europe). Four lakes, out of the fifteen available (Tyrsko, Kortowskie, Skanda, and Ukiel), whose bathing waters are subjected to routine bacteriological tests, were selected for testing. To compare the diversity of the mycobiota composition on the surface and below the sand mixing layer, samples were taken from two depths (10 cm and 50 cm), using a soil auger. Micro-fungi from sand samples were obtained by surface inoculation on an RBC medium from the 1st dilution (1:10). After incubation at 25°C for 96-144 h, the average number of CFU/dm³ was counted. Morphologically differing yeast colonies were passaged into Sabouraud agar slants with gentamicin and incubated again. For detailed laboratory analyses, culture methods (macro- and micro-cultures) and identification methods recommended in diagnostic mycological laboratories were used. The conducted research allowed obtaining 140 yeast isolates. The total average population ranged from 1.37 × 10⁻² CFU/dm³ before the bathing season (April 2019), 1.64 × 10⁻³ CFU/dm³ in the season (May-September 2019), and 1.60 × 10⁻² CFU/dm³ after the end of the season (October 2019). More microfungi were obtained from the surface layer of sand (100 isolates) than from the deeper layer (40 isolates). Reported microfungi may circulate seasonally between individual elements of the lake ecosystem. From the sand/soil from the catchment area beaches, they can get into bathing waters, stopping periodically on the coastal phyllosphere. The sand of the beaches and the phyllosphere are a kind of filter for the water reservoir. The presence of microfungi with various pathogenicity potential in these places is of major epidemiological importance. Therefore, full monitoring of not only recreational waters but also sandy beaches should be treated as an element of constant control by appropriate supervisory institutions, allowing recreational areas for public use so that the use of these places does not involve the risk of infection. Acknowledgment: 'Development Program of the University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn', POWR.03.05.00-00-Z310/17, co-financed by the European Union under the European Social Fund from the Operational Program Knowledge Education Development. Tomasz Bałabański is a recipient of a scholarship from the Programme Interdisciplinary Doctoral Studies in Biology and Biotechnology (POWR.03.05.00-00-Z310/17), which is funded by the 'European Social Fund'.

Keywords: beach, microfungi, sand, yeasts

Procedia PDF Downloads 96
730 Oil-price Volatility and Economic Prosperity in Nigeria: Empirical Evidence

Authors: Yohanna Panshak

Abstract:

The impact of macroeconomic instability on economic growth and prosperity has been at forefront in many discourses among researchers and policy makers and has generated a lot of controversies over the years. This has generated series of research efforts towards understanding the remote causes of this phenomenon; its nature, determinants and how it can be targeted and mitigated. While others have opined that the root cause of macroeconomic flux in Nigeria is attributed to Oil-Price volatility, others viewed the issue as resulting from some constellation of structural constraints both within and outside the shores of the country. Research works of scholars such as [Akpan (2009), Aliyu (2009), Olomola (2006), etc] argue that oil volatility can determine economic growth or has the potential of doing so. On the contrary, [Darby (1982), Cerralo (2005) etc] share the opinion that it can slow down growth. The earlier argument rest on the understanding that for a net balance of oil exporting economies, price upbeat directly increases real national income through higher export earnings, whereas, the latter allude to the case of net-oil importing countries (which experience price rises, increased input costs, reduced non-oil demand, low investment, fall in tax revenues and ultimately an increase in budget deficit which will further reduce welfare level). Therefore, assessing the precise impact of oil price volatility on virtually any economy is a function of whether it is an oil-exporting or importing nation. Research on oil price volatility and its outcome on the growth of the Nigerian economy are evolving and in a march towards resolving Nigeria’s macroeconomic instability as long as oil revenue still remain the mainstay and driver of socio-economic engineering. Recently, a major importer of Nigeria’s oil- United States made a historic breakthrough in more efficient source of energy for her economy with the capacity of serving significant part of the world. This undoubtedly suggests a threat to the exchange earnings of the country. The need to understand fluctuation in its major export commodity is critical. This paper leans on the Renaissance growth theory with greater focus on theoretical work of Lee (1998); a leading proponent of this school who makes a clear cut of difference between oil price changes and oil price volatility. Based on the above background, the research seeks to empirically examine the impact oil-price volatility on government expenditure using quarterly time series data spanning 1986:1 to 2014:4. Vector Auto Regression (VAR) econometric approach shall be used. The structural properties of the model shall be tested using Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron. Relevant diagnostics tests of heteroscedasticity, serial correlation and normality shall also be carried out. Policy recommendation shall be offered on the empirical findings and believes it assist policy makers not only in Nigeria but the world-over.

Keywords: oil-price, volatility, prosperity, budget, expenditure

Procedia PDF Downloads 264