Search results for: risk factor prevention paradigm

Authors: Alev Atak

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In this paper, we aim to create a financial sentiment index by investigating the company’s voluntary information disclosures. We retrieve structured content from BIST 100 companies’ financial reports for the period 1998-2018 and extract relevant financial information for sentiment analysis through Natural Language Processing. We measure strategy-related disclosures and their cross-sectional variation and classify report content into generic sections using synonym lists divided into four main categories according to their liquidity risk profile, risk positions, intra-annual information, and exposure to risk. We use Word Error Rate and Cosin Similarity for comparing and measuring text similarity and derivation in sets of texts. In addition to performing text extraction, we will provide a range of text analysis options, such as the readability metrics, word counts using pre-determined lists (e.g., forward-looking, uncertainty, tone, etc.), and comparison with reference corpus (word, parts of speech and semantic level). Therefore, we create an adequate analytical tool and a financial dictionary to depict the importance of granular financial disclosure for investors to identify correctly the risk-taking behavior and hence make the aggregated effects traceable.

Keywords: financial sentiment, machine learning, information disclosure, risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 91

Authors: Sari F. Alkhatib, Chang Je Park, Gyuhong Roh, Daeseong Jo

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The iterative scheme which is used to treat buildup factors for stratified shields of three-layers or more is being investigated here using the layer-splitting technique. The second layer in a double-layer shield was split into two equivalent layers and the scheme was implemented on the new 'three-layer' shield configuration. The results of such manipulation for water-lead and water-iron shields combinations are presented here for 1 MeV photons. It was found that splitting the second layer introduces some deviation on the overall buildup factor. This expected deviation appeared to be higher in the case of low Z layer followed by high Z. However, the iterative scheme showed a great consistency and strong coherence with the introduced changes.

Keywords: build-up factor, iterative scheme, stratified shields, radiation protection

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Authors: Budhvin T. Withana, Sulochana Rupasinghe

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The problem of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia, two learning disabilities that affect reading and writing abilities, respectively, is a major concern for the educational system. Due to the complexity and uniqueness of the Sinhala language, these conditions are especially difficult for children who speak it. The traditional risk detection methods for Dyslexia and Dysgraphia frequently rely on subjective assessments, making it difficult to cover a wide range of risk detection and time-consuming. As a result, diagnoses may be delayed and opportunities for early intervention may be lost. The project was approached by developing a hybrid model that utilized various deep learning techniques for detecting risk of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia. Specifically, Resnet50, VGG16 and YOLOv8 were integrated to detect the handwriting issues, and their outputs were fed into an MLP model along with several other input data. The hyperparameters of the MLP model were fine-tuned using Grid Search CV, which allowed for the optimal values to be identified for the model. This approach proved to be effective in accurately predicting the risk of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia, providing a valuable tool for early detection and intervention of these conditions. The Resnet50 model achieved an accuracy of 0.9804 on the training data and 0.9653 on the validation data. The VGG16 model achieved an accuracy of 0.9991 on the training data and 0.9891 on the validation data. The MLP model achieved an impressive training accuracy of 0.99918 and a testing accuracy of 0.99223, with a loss of 0.01371. These results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid model achieved a high level of accuracy in predicting the risk of Dyslexia and Dysgraphia.

Keywords: neural networks, risk detection system, Dyslexia, Dysgraphia, deep learning, learning disabilities, data science

Procedia PDF Downloads 100

Authors: H. E. Elzain, S. Y. Chung, V. Senapathi, Kye-Hun Park

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Groundwater is considered a significant source for drinking and irrigation purposes in Miryang city, and it is attributed to a limited number of a surface water reservoirs and high seasonal variations in precipitation. Population growth in addition to the expansion of agricultural land uses and industrial development may affect the quality and management of groundwater. This research utilized multidisciplinary approaches of geostatistics such as multivariate statistics, factor analysis, cluster analysis and kriging technique in order to identify the hydrogeochemical process and characterizing the control factors of the groundwater geochemistry distribution for developing risk maps, exploiting data obtained from chemical investigation of groundwater samples under the area of study. A total of 79 samples have been collected and analyzed using atomic absorption spectrometer (AAS) for major and trace elements. Chemical maps using 2-D spatial Geographic Information System (GIS) of groundwater provided a powerful tool for detecting the possible potential sites of groundwater that involve the threat of contamination. GIS computer based map exhibited that the higher rate of contamination observed in the central and southern area with relatively less extent in the northern and southwestern parts. It could be attributed to the effect of irrigation, residual saline water, municipal sewage and livestock wastes. At wells elevation over than 85m, the scatter diagram represents that the groundwater of the research area was mainly influenced by saline water and NO3. Level of pH measurement revealed low acidic condition due to dissolved atmospheric CO2 in the soil, while the saline water had a major impact on the higher values of TDS and EC. Based on the cluster analysis results, the groundwater has been categorized into three group includes the CaHCO3 type of the fresh water, NaHCO3 type slightly influenced by sea water and Ca-Cl, Na-Cl types which are heavily affected by saline water. The most predominant water type was CaHCO3 in the study area. Contamination sources and chemical characteristics were identified from factor analysis interrelationship and cluster analysis. The chemical elements that belong to factor 1 analysis were related to the effect of sea water while the elements of factor 2 associated with agricultural fertilizers. The degree level, distribution, and location of groundwater contamination have been generated by using Kriging methods. Thus, geostatistics model provided more accurate results for identifying the source of contamination and evaluating the groundwater quality. GIS was also a creative tool to visualize and analyze the issues affecting water quality in the Miryang city.

Keywords: groundwater characteristics, GIS chemical maps, factor analysis, cluster analysis, Kriging techniques

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Authors: C. Brandt, R. Christopher, N. Damons

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Background: Soccer is one of the most common sports in the world. It is associated with a significant chance of injury either during training or during the course of an actual match. Studies on the epidemiology of soccer injuries have been widely conducted, but methodological appraisal is lacking to make evidence-based decisions. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to conduct a systematic review of common injuries in soccer and their risk factors. Methods: A systematic review was performed based on the Joanna Briggs Institute procedure for conducting systematic reviews. Databases such as SPORT Discus, Cinahl, Medline, Science Direct, PubMed, and grey literature were searched. The quality of selected studies was rated, and data extracted and tabulated. Plot data analysis was done, and incidence rates and odds ratios were calculated, with their respective 95% confidence intervals. I² statistic was used to determine the proportion of variation across studies. Results: The search yielded 62 studies, of which 21 were screened for inclusion. A total of 16 studies were included for the analysis, ten for qualitative and six for quantitative analysis. The included studies had, on average, a low risk of bias and good methodological quality. The heterogeneity amongst the pooled studies was, however, statistically significant (χ²-p value < 0.001). The pooled results indicated a high incidence of soccer injuries at an incidence rate of 6.83 per 1000 hours of play. The pooled results also showed significant evidence of risk factors and the likelihood of injury occurrence in relation to these risk factors (OR=1.12 95% CI 1.07; 1.17). Conclusion: Although multiple studies are available on the epidemiology of soccer injuries and risk factors, only a limited number of studies were of sound methodology to be included in a review. There was also significant heterogeneity amongst the studies. The incidence rate of common soccer injuries was found to be 6.83 per 1000 hours of play. This incidence rate is lower than the values reported by the majority of previous studies on the occurrence of common soccer injuries. The types of common soccer injuries found by this review support the soccer injuries pattern reported in existing literature as muscle strain and ligament sprain of varying severity, especially in the lower limbs. The risk factors that emerged from this systematic review are predominantly intrinsic risk factors. The risk factors increase the risk of traumatic and overuse injuries of the lower extremities such as hamstrings and groin strains, knee and ankle sprains, and contusion.

Keywords: incidence, prevalence, risk factors, soccer injuries

Procedia PDF Downloads 178

Authors: Vallence Ngabo M., Leonard Atuhaire, Peter Clever Rutayisire

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The main aim of this study was to establish the differences in both the determinants of stunting and the causal mechanism through which the identified determinants influence stunting amongst male and female under-fives in Uganda. Literature shows that male children below the age of five years are at a higher risk of being stunted than their female counterparts. Specifically, studies in Uganda indicate that being a male child is positively associated with stunting, while being a female is negatively associated with stunting. Data for 904 males and 829 females under-fives was extracted form UDHS-2016 survey dataset. Key variables for this study were identified and used in generating relevant models and paths. Structural equation modeling techniques were used in their generalized form (GSEM). The generalized nature necessitated specifying both the family and link functions for each response variable in the system of the model. The sex of the child (b4) was used as a grouping factor and the height for age (HAZ) scores were used to construct the status for stunting of under-fives. The estimated models and path clearly indicated that the set of underlying factors that influence male and female under-fives respectively was different and the path through which they influence stunting was different. However, some of the determinants that influenced stunting amongst male under-fives also influenced stunting amongst the female under-fives. To reduce the stunting problem to the desirable state, it is important to consider the multifaceted and complex nature of the risk factors that influence stunting amongst the under-fives but, more importantly, consider the different sex-specific factors and their causal mechanism or paths through which they influence stunting.

Keywords: stunting, underfives, sex of the child, GSEM, causal mechanism

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: Padma Chutoo, Elena Kulinskaya, Ilyas Bakbergenuly, Nicholas Steel, Dmitri Pchejetski

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Transient ischaemic attacks (TIAs) are warning signs for future strokes. TIA patients are at increased risk of stroke and cardio-vascular events after a first episode. A majority of studies on TIA focused on the occurrence of these ancillary events after a TIA. Long-term mortality after TIA received only limited attention. We undertook this study to determine the long-term hazards of all-cause mortality following a first episode of a TIA using anonymised electronic health records (EHRs). We used a retrospective case-control study using electronic primary health care records from The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database. Patients born prior to or in year 1960, resident in England, with a first diagnosis of TIA between January 1986 and January 2017 were matched to three controls on age, sex and general medical practice. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. The hazards of all-cause mortality were estimated using a time-varying Weibull-Cox survival model which included both scale and shape effects and a random frailty effect of GP practice. 20,633 cases and 58,634 controls were included. Cases aged 39 to 60 years at the first TIA event had the highest hazard ratio (HR) of mortality compared to matched controls (HR = 3.04, 95% CI (2.91 - 3.18)). The HRs for cases aged 61-70 years, 71-76 years and 77+ years were 1.98 (1.55 - 2.30), 1.79 (1.20 - 2.07) and 1.52 (1.15 - 1.97) compared to matched controls. Aspirin provided long-term survival benefits to cases. Cases aged 39-60 years on aspirin had HR of 0.93 (0.84 - 1.00), 0.90 (0.82 - 0.98) and 0.88 (0.80 - 0.96) at 5 years, 10 years and 15 years, respectively, compared to cases in the same age group who were not on antiplatelets. Similar beneficial effects of aspirin were observed in other age groups. There were no significant survival benefits with other antiplatelet options. No survival benefits of antiplatelet drugs were observed in controls. Our study highlights the excess long-term risk of death of TIA patients and cautions that TIA should not be treated as a benign condition. The study further recommends aspirin as the better option for secondary prevention for TIA patients compared to clopidogrel recommended by NICE guidelines. Management of risk factors and treatment strategies should be important challenges to reduce the burden of disease.

Keywords: dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT), General Practice, Multiple Imputation, The Health Improvement Network(THIN), hazard ratio (HR), Weibull-Cox model

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Authors: Shakila Singh

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Sexual harassment continues to be a problem both in educational institutions and workplaces with the main victims being women and the main perpetrators being men. The achievement of quality education demands to create safe learning spaces for all students and requires extensive and integrated interventions. This article draws on the data from a broader study that aims to create safer learning environments at university by addressing gender violence. It attempts to understand male students’ perspectives about their role in sexual harassment on the campus. It is a move away from interventions that place the responsibility of prevention of sexual harassment, on women. The study adopts an interpretive paradigm within a qualitative approach. The sample comprises twenty male university students who were purposively selected because they live in the campus residences. The main data generation methods included focus group discussions and individual interviews. Findings show that while many male students agree that victims of sexual harassment are mainly women, they also suggest that men are victims of sexual harassment by women. Male students have varying understandings of what constitutes sexual harassment. They position themselves as victims who feel harassed by women’s dress and behaviour. Male students also felt under pressure by sexual advances made by women that forced them to comply in order to protect their masculinity. This article argues that social norms of masculinity are powerful drivers of behaviour that play a key role in the perpetuation of sexual harassment. Male students who feel strongly against sexual harassment of female students are constrained by their masculinities in their ability to act against it. Effective interventions need to actively engage students in reflecting on and challenging social and cultural norms that contribute to violent expressions and to develop alternatives with them.

Keywords: gender violence, male students, sexual harassment, university students

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Authors: R. H. Fattepur, Sameer R. Fattepur, D. K. Sreekantha

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Dairy Farming is one of the key industries in India. India is the leading producer and also the consumer of milk, milk-based products in the world. In this paper, we have attempted to the replace the human expert system and to develop an artificial expert system prototype to increase the speed and accuracy of decision making dairy farming credit risk evaluation. Fuzzy logic is used for dealing with uncertainty, vague and acquired knowledge, fuzzy rule base method is used for representing this knowledge for building an effective expert system.

Keywords: expert system, fuzzy logic, knowledge base, dairy farming, credit risk

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Authors: Hamid Hanifi, Adel Azar, Alireza Booshehri

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In order to know about the capability level of R & D units in automotive industry, it is essential that organizations always compare themselves with standard level and higher than themselves so that to be improved continuously. In this research, with respect to the importance of this issue, we have tried to present an assessment model for R & D capabilities having reviewed on new products development in automotive industry of Iran. Iran Khodro Company was selected for the case study. To this purpose, first, having a review on the literature, about 200 indicators effective in R & D capabilities and new products development were extracted. Then, of these numbers, 29 indicators which were more important were selected by industry and academia experts and the questionnaire was distributed among statistical population. Statistical population was consisted of 410 individuals in Iran Khodro Company. We used the 410 questionnaires for exploratory factor analysis and then used the data of 308 questionnaires from the same population randomly for confirmatory factor analysis. The results of exploratory factor analysis led to categorization of dimensions in 9 secondary dimensions. Naming the dimensions was done according to a literature review and the professors’ opinion. Using structural equation modeling and AMOS software, confirmatory factor analysis was conducted and ultimate model with 9 secondary dimensions was confirmed. Meanwhile, 9 secondary dimensions of this research are as follows: 1) Research and design capability, 2) Customer and market capability, 3) Technology capability, 4) Financial resources capability, 5) Organizational chart, 6) Intellectual capital capability, 7) NPD process capability, 8) Managerial capability and 9) Strategy capability.

Keywords: research and development, new products development, structural equations, exploratory factor analysis, confirmatory factor analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 331

Authors: Mohd Rashid bin Ab Hamid, Noor Azura binti Omar, Zainol Bin Mustafa

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Purpose: The aim of this paper is to study the encouraging factors for scholarly works contribution towards among academicians at Malaysian university. Methods: This paper uses questionnaire for data collection on the respondents’ perceptional level on the institutional repository efforts in one of the university under study. Several encouraging factors have been identified and to be measured using descriptive statistics. The factors are related to content contribution, i.e. personal factor, professional factor, organizational factor and technological factor. Findings: The study found that all these four encouraging factors did have a relation to the contribution of scholarly works in the university by the academician. Research Limitations: This study used a case study and generalization to all Malaysian universities should be well taken care of. Practical implications: The library at the university should look into these four encouraging factors in order to enhance the contribution from academician towards the repository. Originality/value: This research paper provides basic information for the knowledge management officers in the university by endeavouring more efforts in order to attract more contributions.

Keywords: institutional repository, information retrieval, information storage and retrieval

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Authors: Belén Vinaixa Kinnear, Arturo Hidalgo López, Bernardo Elembo Wilasi, Pablo Fernández Pérez, Cecilia Hernández Fuentealba

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The expanded use of risk assessment in legislative and corporate decision-making has increased the role of expert judgement in giving data for security-related decision-making. Expert judgements are required in most steps of risk assessment: danger recognizable proof, hazard estimation, risk evaluation, and examination of choices. This paper presents a fault tree analysis (FTA), which implies a probabilistic failure analysis applied to leakage of oil in a subsea production system. In standard FTA, the failure probabilities of items of a framework are treated as exact values while evaluating the failure probability of the top event. There is continuously insufficiency of data for calculating the failure estimation of components within the drilling industry. Therefore, fuzzy hypothesis can be used as a solution to solve the issue. The aim of this paper is to examine the leaks from the Zafiro West subsea oil facility by using fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA). As a result, the research has given theoretical and practical contributions to maritime safety and environmental protection. It has been also an effective strategy used traditionally in identifying hazards in nuclear installations and power industries.

Keywords: expert judgment, probability assessment, fault tree analysis, risk analysis, oil pipelines, subsea production system, drilling, quantitative risk analysis, leakage failure, top event, off-shore industry

Procedia PDF Downloads 187

Authors: Souhir Chelly, Asma Ben Cheikh, Hela Ghali, Salwa Khefacha, Lamine Dhidah, Mohamed Ben Rejeb, Houyem Said Latiri

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The hospital risk management department is firstly involved in the methodological analysis of grade zero sterilization incidents. The system is based on a subsequent analysis process in compliance with the ongoing requirements of the Haute Autorité de santé (HAS) for a reactive approach to risk, allowing to identify failures and start the appropriate preventive and corrective measures. The use of the association of litigation and risk management (ALARM) method makes easier the grade zero analysis and brings to light the team or institutional, organizational, temporal, individual factors representative of undesirable effects. Two main factors come out again from this analysis, pre-disinfection step of the emergency block unsupervised instrumentalist intern was poorly done since she did not remove the battery from micro air motor. At the sterilization unit, the worker who was not supervised by the nurse did the conditioning of the motor without having checked it if it still contained the battery. The main cause is that the management of human resources was inadequate at both levels, the instrumental trainee in the block who was not supervised by his supervisor and the worker of the sterilization unit who was not supervised by the responsible nurse. There is a lack of research help, advice, and collaboration. The difficulties encountered during this type of analysis are multiple. The first is based on its necessary acceptance by the various actors of care involved, which should not perceive it as a tool leading to individual punishment, but rather as a means to improve their practices.

Keywords: ALARM (Association of Litigation and Risk Management Method), incident, risk management, sterilization

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Authors: Massimiliano Panella, Sara Bortoluzzi, Sophia Russotto, Daniele Nicolini, Carmela Rinaldi

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Osteoporosis affects more than 200 million people worldwide. About 75% of osteoporosis cases are undiagnosed or diagnosed only when a bone fracture occurs. Since osteoporosis related fractures are significant determinants of the burden of disease and health and social costs of aging populations, we believe that this is the early identification and treatment of high-risk patients should be a priority in actual healthcare systems. Screening for osteoporosis by dual energy x-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) is not cost-effective for general population. An alternative is pulse-echo ultrasound (PEUS) because of the minor costs. To this end, we developed an early detection program for osteoporosis with PEUS, and we evaluated is possible impact and sustainability. We conducted a cross-sectional study including 1,050 people in Italy. Subjects with >1 major or >2 minor risk factors for osteoporosis were invited to PEUS bone mass density (BMD) measurement at the proximal tibia. Based on BMD values, subjects were classified as healthy subjects (BMD>0.783 g/cm²) and pathological including subjects with suspected osteopenia (0.783≤BMD>0.719 g/cm²) or osteoporosis (BMD ≤ 0.719 g/cm²). The responder rate was 60.4% (634/1050). According to the risk, PEUS scan was recommended to 436 people, of whom 300 (mean age 45.2, 81% women) accepted to participate. We identified 240 (80%) healthy and 60 (20%) pathological subjects (47 osteopenic and 13 osteoporotic). We observed a significant association between high risk people and reduced bone density (p=0.043) with increased risks for female gender, older ages, and menopause (p<0.01). The yearly cost of the screening program was 8,242 euros. With actual Italian fracture incidence rates in osteoporotic patients, we can reasonably expect in 20 years that at least 6 fractures will occur in our sample. If we consider that the mean costs per fracture in Italy is today 16,785 euros, we can estimate a theoretical cost of 100,710 euros. According to literature, we can assume that the early treatment of osteoporosis could avoid 24,170 euros of such costs. If we add the actual yearly cost of the treatments to the cost of our program and we compare this final amount of 11,682 euros to the avoidable costs of fractures (24,170 euros) we can measure a possible positive benefits/costs ratio of 2.07. As a major outcome, our study let us to early identify 60 people with a significant bone loss that were not aware of their condition. This diagnostic anticipation constitutes an important element of value for the project, both for the patients, for the preventable negative outcomes caused by the fractures, and for the society in general, because of the related avoidable costs. Therefore, based on our finding, we believe that the PEUS based screening performed could be a cost-effective approach to early identify osteoporosis. However, our study has some major limitations. In fact, in our study the economic analysis is based on theoretical scenarios, thus specific studies are needed for a better estimation of the possible benefits and costs of our program.

Keywords: osteoporosis, prevention, public health, screening

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Authors: Yang Yu, Jian Wang, Jiqiang Liu, Lei Han, Xudong He, Shaohua Lv

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As the increasing network attacks become more and more complex, network situation assessment based on log analysis cannot meet the requirements to ensure network security because of the low quality of logs and alerts. This paper addresses the lack of consideration of security attributes of hosts and attacks in the network. Identity and effectiveness of Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) are hard to be proved in risk assessment based on alerts and flow matching. This paper proposes a multi-dimension threat situation assessment method based on network security attributes. First, the paper offers an improved Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS) calculation, which includes confident risk, integrity risk, availability risk and a weighted risk. Second, the paper introduces deterioration rate of properties collected by sensors in hosts and network, which aimed at assessing the time and level of DDoS attacks. Third, the paper introduces distribution of asset value in security attributes considering features of attacks and network, which aimed at assessing and show the whole situation. Experiments demonstrate that the approach reflects effectiveness and level of DDoS attacks, and the result can show the primary threat in network and security requirement of network. Through comparison and analysis, the method reflects more in security requirement and security risk situation than traditional methods based on alert and flow analyzing.

Keywords: DDoS evaluation, improved CVSS, network security attribute, threat situation assessment

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Authors: Herawanti Kumalasari, Raldi Hendro Koestoer, Hayati Sari Hasibuan

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Geographically, Indonesia is located in the arc of volcanoes that cause disaster prone one of them is landslide disaster. One of the causes of the landslide is the conversion of land from forest to agricultural land in upland areas and river border that has a steep slope. The study area is located in the highlands with fertile soil conditions, so most of the land is used as agricultural land and plantations. Land use transfer also occurs around the geothermal field in Pangalengan District, West Java Province which will threaten the sustainability of geothermal energy utilization and the safety of the community. The purpose of this research is to arrange the concept of spatial pattern arrangement in the geothermal area based on disaster mitigation. This research method using superimpose analysis. Superimpose analysis to know the basic physical condition of the planned area through the overlay of disaster risk map with the map of the plan of spatial plan pattern of Bandung Regency Spatial Plan. The results of the analysis will then be analyzed spatially. The results have shown that most of the study areas were at moderate risk level. Planning of spatial pattern of existing study area has not fully considering the spread of disaster risk that there are settlement area and the agricultural area which is in high landslide risk area. The concept of the arrangement of the spatial pattern of the study area will use zoning system which is divided into three zones namely core zone, buffer zone and development zone.

Keywords: spatial planning, geothermal, disaster risk, zoning

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Authors: Mauricio Molina

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The present research project aims to determine whether it is possible to have a statement, allowing you to have an economic model to establish clearly if the population that uses the rail system underground in the city of Medellin with an increase in productivity total factor. The present project aims to concentrate on the surroundings to the system underground for a period of 60 months in the city of Medellin. According to the review bibliographic is can establish that in it most of them cases, the cities that have with systems of transport rail are more productive. And should to its time present is an analysis that may lead to determine if effectively the use of the transport railway improves the productivity of a city and its inhabitants.

Keywords: economic growth, mobility urban, total factor productivity, rail transport

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Authors: Y. S. Yusoff, G. Streftaris, H. R Waters

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Death within 30 days is an important factor to be looked into, as there is a significant risk of deaths immediately following or soon after, Myocardial Infarction (MI) or stroke. In this paper, we will model the deaths within 30 days following a Myocardial Infarction (MI) or stroke in the UK. We will see how the probabilities of sudden deaths from MI or stroke have changed over the period 1981-2000. We will model the sudden deaths using a Generalized Linear Model (GLM), fitted using the R statistical package, under a Binomial distribution for the number of sudden deaths. We parameterize our model using the extensive and detailed data from the Framingham Heart Study, adjusted to match UK rates. The results show that there is a reduction for the sudden deaths following a MI over time but no significant improvement for sudden deaths following a stroke.

Keywords: sudden deaths, myocardial infarction, stroke, ischemic heart disease

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Authors: Zahra Ali Lawan, Ali Abdulhakim

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The stomach contents of 100 Oreochromis niloticus, sampled between April and August, 2011 in Alau Lake, northeastern Nigeria, were examined. Herbs and algae were the main contents representing 40.15%, 23.36% followed by some mud / sand components, insect parts and fish remains representing 14.60%, 13.87% and 8.03% respectively. Oreochromis niloticus was affirmed as an herbivore and a benthic feeder due to the presence of both herbs and mud/sand among its stomach content. The mean stomach fullness percentage was 70.94% and stomach emptiness was 29.06%. The average condition factor of the fishes was 1.69 with the best conditions recorded in the dry months of April and May at 1.74 and 1.94 respectively. The general trend in the condition factor for this species in this study is that relatively higher condition factors were recorded for relatively higher lengths.

Keywords: stomach contents, oreochromis niloticus, herbivores, Lake Alau

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Authors: Saleem Rao, Mohammed Al-Ghadeer, Archan Banerjee, Hossein Fariborzi

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Materials imperfection, particularly two-level-system (TLS) defects in planer superconducting quantum circuits, contributes significantly to decoherence, ultimately limiting the performance of quantum computation and sensing. Oxides at air interfaces are among the host of TLS, and different material has been used to reduce TLS losses. Passivation with an inorganic layer is not an option to reduce these interface oxides; however, they can be etched away, but their regrowth remains a problem. Here, we report the chemisorption of molecular self-assembled monolayers (SAMs) at air interfaces of superconducting co-planer waveguide (CPW) resonators that suppress the regrowth of oxides and also modify the dielectric constant of the interface. With SAMs, we observed sustained order of magnitude improvement in quality factor -better than oxide etched interfaces. Quality factor measurements at millikelvin temperature and at single photon, XPS data, and TEM images of SAM passivated air interface sustenance our claim. Compatibility of SAM with micro-/nano-fabrication processes opens new ways to improve the coherence time in cQED.

Keywords: superconducting circuits, quality-factor, self-assembled monolayer, coherence

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Authors: Naser Kazemi Eilaki, Ilona Heldal, Carolyn Ahmer, Bjarne Christian Hagen

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Elderly people and people with disabilities are recognized as at-risk groups when it comes to egress and travel from hazard zone to a safe place. One's disability can negatively influence her or his escape time, and this becomes even more important when people from this target group live alone. While earlier studies have frequently addressed quantitative measurements regarding at-risk groups' physical characteristics (e.g., their speed of travel), this paper considers the influence of at-risk groups’ characteristics on their decision and determining better escape routes. Most of evacuation models are based on mapping people's movement and their behaviour to summation times for common activity types on a timeline. Usually, timeline models estimate required safe egress time (RSET) as a sum of four timespans: detection, alarm, premovement, and movement time, and compare this with the available safe egress time (ASET) to determine what is influencing the margin of safety.This paper presents a cross-sectional study for identifying the most critical items on RSET and people's decision-making and with possibilities to include safety knowledge regarding people with physical or cognitive functional impairments. The result will contribute to increased knowledge on considering at-risk groups and disabilities for designing and developing safe escape routes. The expected results can be an asset to predict the probabilistic behavioural pattern of at-risk groups and necessary components for defining a framework for understanding how stakeholders can consider various disabilities when determining the margin of safety for a safe escape route.

Keywords: fire safety, evacuation, decision-making, at-risk groups

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Authors: Nino Damenia

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The paper discusses the risks arising in agriculture in Georgia, the possibilities of their acceptance and prevention, the threat created by the pandemic crisis, and the state programs for overcoming them. The share of agriculture in the country's GDP is 8.3%. Over the past five years, Georgia has imported $ 5.9 billion worth of agri-food products. Despite these figures, agriculture has become an important sector for the Georgian government since 2012, as evidenced by the more than 1.5 billion GEL spent from the 2012-2020 budget for agricultural development. Any field of agriculture, be it poultry, livestock, cereals, fruits, or vegetables, is very sensitive to various climatic and viral risks. Avoiding these risks requires additional investment. It is noteworthy that small farms are mainly affected by the risks, while relatively large farms face fewer problems because they are relatively prepared to face the problems and can avoid them more easily. An example of viral risk in the article is the export of hazelnuts, which has quite a lot of potential. Due to the spoilage of the crop caused by Brown Marmorated Stink Bug (BMSB), hazelnut exports have declined considerably over the years. If the volume of hazelnuts exported in 2016 was 179 378 thousand USD, due to the deficit caused by Brown Marmorated Stink Bug (BMSB) in 2018, it became 57 124 thousand USD. And after the situation was relatively settled, hazelnut seedlings were poisoned. By 2020, this figure improved to 91,088 thousand US dollars. The development of the agricultural sector and the reduction of risks require technological development, investor interest, and even more state support to enable more small farms to have the potential for greater production and sustainable development. The aim of the study is to identify the risks arising in the agricultural sector of Georgia before and after the pandemic, to evaluate them, compare them with the agriculture of some European countries, and to develop the necessary recommendations to avoid the emerging risks. The research uses methods of analysis and synthesis, observation, induction, deduction, and analysis of statistics. The paper is based on both Georgian and foreign scientific research, as well as state-published documentation on agricultural assistance programs. The research is based on the analysis of data published by the European Statistics Office, the National Statistics Office of Georgia, and many other organizations. The results of the study and the recommendations will help reduce the risks in agriculture in Georgia and, in general, to identify the existing potential and the development of the sector as a whole.

Keywords: risk, agriculture, pandemi, brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB)

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Authors: Tsai-chun Lai, Szu-ju Fu, Tzu-lin Lee, Yuh-Lien Chen

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There is much evidence that exposure to fine particulate matter (PM) from air pollution increases the risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. According to previous reports, PM in the air enters the respiratory tract, contacts the alveoli, and enters the blood circulation, leading to the progression of cardiovascular disease. PM pollution may also lead to cardiometabolic disturbances, increasing the risk of cardiovascular disease. The effects of PM on cardiac function and mitochondrial damage are currently unknown. We used mice and rat cardiomyocytes (H9c2) as animal and in vitro cell models, respectively, to simulate an air pollution environment using PM. These results indicate that the apoptosis-related factor PUMA, a regulator of apoptosis upregulated by p53, is increased in mice treated with PM. Apoptosis was aggravated in cardiomyocytes treated with PM, as measured by TUNEL assay and Annexin V/PI. Western blot results showed that CASPASE3 was significantly increased and BCL2 (B-cell lymphoid 2) was significantly decreased under PM treatment. Concurrent exposure to PM increases mitochondrial reactive oxygen species (ROS) production by MitoSOX Red staining. Furthermore, using Mitotracker staining, PM treatment significantly shortened mitochondrial length, indicating mitochondrial fission. The expression of mitochondrial fission-related proteins p-DRP1 (phosphodynamics-related protein 1) and FIS1 (mitochondrial fission 1 protein) was significantly increased. Based on these results, the exposure to PM worsens mitochondrial function and leads to cardiomyocyte apoptosis.

Keywords: particulate matter, cardiomyocyte, apoptosis, mitochondria

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Authors: Felix Olajide Ibikunle

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Introductory Statement: Sustainable participation of teenagers in sport requires deliberate and concerted plan and managerial policy rooted in the “philosophy of catch them young”. At risk, teenagers need proper integration into societal aspiration: This direction will go a long way to streamline them into the security breach and attractive nuisance free lifestyles. Basic Methodology: The population consists of children within 13-19 years old. A proportionate sampling size technique of 60% was adopted to select seven zones out of 11 geo-political zones in the Ibadan metropolis. Qualitative information and interview were used to collect needed information. Majority of the teenagers were out of school, street hawkers, motor pack, touts, and unserious vocation apprentices. These groups have the potentials of security breaches in the metropolis and beyond. Five hundred and thirty-four (534) respondents were used for the study. They were drawn from Ojoo, Akingbile, and Moniya axis = 72, Agbowo, Ajibode, and Apete axis = 74; Akobo, Basorun, and Idi-ape axis 79; Wofun, Monatan, and Iyana-Church axis = 78; Molete, Oke-ado and Oke-Bola axis = 75; Beere, Odinjo, Elekuro axis = 77; Eleyele, Ologuneru, and Alesinloye axis = 79. Major Findings: Multiple regression was used to analyze the independent variables and percentage. The respondents average age was 15.6 years old, and with 100% male. The instrument(questionnaire) used yielded; sport preference (r = 0.72); intervention (r = 0.68) and the sustainable participation (r = 0.70).The relative contributions of sport preference on participation of at risk teenagers was (F-ratio = 1.067); Intervention contribution of sport on participation of at risk teenagers = produced (F-ratio of 12.095) was significant while sustainable participation of at risk teenager produced (F-ratio = 1.062) was significant. Closing Statement: The respondents’ sport preference stimulated their participation in sport. The intervention exposed at risk-teenagers to coaching, which activated their interest and participation in sport. While sustainable participation contributed positively to evolve at risk teenagers participation in their preferred sport.

Keywords: sport, preference, intervention, teenagers, sustainable, participation and risk teenagers

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Authors: Alejandro Arnaldo Barroso Martinez

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Unlike sex, which is constituted by anatomic-physiological differences, gender is a social construction. Our thoughts and behaviors as females and males are not etched in stone by our biology but rather from how society expects us to think and behave based on our sex assignment in the womb. Social expectations, values, and roles are taken on by individuals and shape the ways considered acceptable and linked to our bodies, feelings, and interpersonal relationships. Furthermore, these evolve into dire consequences for those who do not meet these disciplinary, economic, and cultural standards. Then, the social learning of gender identity implies the individual’s psychological sense of being, and it might be highly linked to a sense of life and suicide attempts. As a result, suicide has been considered a gender issue with differences in the rates and means used by men and women worldwide. Nevertheless, there has been a misunderstanding of the meaning of being male or female in a particular context and how it becomes a risk process for suicide attempts. For this reason, the general objective of the current research is to explain how this process occurs in Cuba. From a Critical Sociology and Social Psychology, a qualitative methodology was developed through six case studies and qualitative in-depth interviews. The analysis is focused on the sequence and interplay between two dimensions of meaning: signifiers and voices. Findings show that the risk process of suicide attempts in Cuba means some patriarchal beliefs and practices as part of informal educational models and some positivist practices in mental health attention. Findings also show that community relations create a sense of belonging, and it is a protection against suicide attempts in Cuba. Those frames of signifiers and voices explain in both males and females but differently when and how they are suffering from isolation, violence, the normalization of emotional awareness, and emotional distress expression. Suicide prevention programs should take gender learning into account as a cultural process.

Keywords: social constructions, gender identity, meanings, suicide attempt

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Authors: Kreso Ivandic, Filip Dodigovic, Damir Stuhec

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The paper deals with the proposed 'Material' and 'Action-resistance factor' design methods in designing the embedded retaining walls. The parametric analysis of evaluating the differences of the output values mutually and compared with classic approach computation was performed. There is a challenge with the criteria for choosing the proposed calculation design methods in Eurocode 7 with respect to current technical regulations and regular engineering practice. The basic criterion for applying a particular design method is to ensure minimum an equal degree of reliability in relation to the current practice. The procedure of combining the relevant partial coefficients according to design methods was carried out. The use of mentioned partial coefficients should result in the same level of safety, regardless of load combinations, material characteristics and problem geometry. This proposed approach of the partial coefficients related to the material and/or action-resistance should aimed at building a bridge between calculations used so far and pure probability analysis. The measure to compare the results was to determine an equivalent safety factor for each analysis. The results show a visible wide span of equivalent values of the classic safety factors.

Keywords: action-resistance factor design, classic approach, embedded retaining wall, Eurocode 7, limit states, material factor design

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Authors: Rashmi Dyondi, Shishir K. Jha

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The purpose of the paper is to address the strategic risk issues surrounding Hindi film distribution in Mumbai for a film distributor, who acts as an entrepreneur when launching a product (movie) in the market (film territory).The paper undertakes a fundamental review of films and risk in the Hindi film industry and applies Grounded Theory technique to understand the complex phenomena of risk taking behavior of the film distributors (both independent and studios) in Mumbai. Rich in-depth interviews with distributors are coded to develop core categories through constant comparison leading to conceptualization of the phenomena of interest. This paper is a first-of-its-kind-attempt to understand risk behavior of a distributor, which is akin to entrepreneurial risk behavior under conditions of uncertainty. Unlike extensive scholarly work on dynamics of Hollywood motion picture industry, Hindi film industry is an under-researched area till now. Especially how do film distributors perceive risk is an unexplored study for the Hindi film industry. Films are unique experience products and the film distributor acts as an entrepreneur assuming high risks given the uncertainty in the motion picture business. With the entry of mighty corporate studios and astronomical film budgets posing serious business threats to the independent distributors, there is a need for an in-depth qualitative enquiry (applying grounded theory technique) for unraveling the definition of risk for the independent distributors in Mumbai vis-à-vis the corporate studios. Need for good content was a common challenge to both the groups in the present state of the industry, however corporate studios with their distinct ideologies, focus on own productions and financial power faced different set of challenges than the independents (like achieving sustainability in business). Softer issues like market goodwill and relations with producers, honesty in business dealings and transparency came out to be clear markers for success of independents in long run. The findings from the qualitative analysis stress on different elements of risk and challenges as perceived by the two groups of distributors in the Hindi film industry and provide a future research agenda for empirical investigation of determinants of box-office success of Hindi films distributed in Mumbai.

Keywords: entrepreneurial risk behavior, film distribution strategy, Hindi film industry, risk

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Authors: A. Bhatt, C. Bassi, H. Farragher, J. Musk

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Background: All medicines placed on the EU market are legally required to be accompanied by labeling and package leaflet, which provide comprehensive information, enabling its safe and appropriate use. Mock-ups with results of assessments using a target patient group must be submitted for a marketing authorisation application. Consumers need confidence in non-prescription, OTC medicines in order to manage their minor ailments and umbrella brands assist purchasing decisions by assisting easy identification within a particular therapeutic area. A number of regulatory agencies have risk management tools and guidelines to assist in developing umbrella brands for OTC medicines, however assessment and decision making is subjective and inconsistent. This study presents an evaluation in the UK following the US FDA warning concerning methaemoglobinaemia following 21 reported cases (11 children under 2 years) caused by OTC oral analgesics containing benzocaine. METHODS: A standard face to face, 25 structured task based user interview testing methodology using a standard questionnaire and rating scale in consumers aged 15-91 years, was conducted independently between June and October 2015 in their homes. Whether individuals could discriminate between the labelling, safety information and warnings on cartons and PILs between 3 different OTC medicines packs with the same umbrella name was evaluated. Each pack was presented with differing information hierarchy using, different coloured cartons, containing the 3 different active ingredients, benzocaine (oromucosal spray) and two lozenges containing 2, 4, dichlorobenzyl alcohol, amylmetacresol and hexylresorcinol respectively (for the symptomatic relief of sore throat pain). The test was designed to determine whether warnings on the carton and leaflet were prominent, accessible to alert users that one product contained benzocaine, risk of methaemoglobinaemia, and refer to the leaflet for the signs of the condition and what to do should this occur. Results: Two consumers did not locate the warnings on the side of the pack, eventually found them on the back and two suggestions to further improve accessibility of the methaemoglobinaemia warning. Using a gold pack design for the oromucosal spray, all consumers could differentiate between the 3 drugs, minimum age particulars, pharmaceutical form and the risk factor methaemoglobinaemia. The warnings for benzocaine were deemed to be clear or very clear; appearance of the 3 packs were either very well differentiated or quite well differentiated. The PIL test passed on all criteria. All consumers could use the product correctly, identify risk factors ensuring the critical information necessary for the safe use was legible and easily accessible so that confusion and errors were minimised. Conclusion: Patients with known methaemoglobinaemia are likely to be vigilant in checking for benzocaine containing products, despite similar umbrella brand names across a range of active ingredients. Despite these findings, the package design and spray format were not deemed to be sufficient to mitigate potential safety risks associated with differences in target populations and contraindications when submitted to the Regulatory Agency. Although risk management tools are increasingly being used by agencies to assist in providing objective assurance of package safety, further transparency, reduction in subjectivity and proportionate risk should be demonstrated.

Keywords: labelling, OTC, risk, user testing

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Authors: Boo-Sung Koh, Seung-Eock Kim

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In this paper, a direct design using a nonlinear inelastic analysis is suggested. Also, this paper compares the load carrying capacity obtained by a nonlinear inelastic analysis with experiment results to verify the accuracy of the results. The allowable stress design results of a railroad through a plate girder bridge and the safety factor of the nonlinear inelastic analysis were compared to examine the safety performance. As a result, the load safety factor for the nonlinear inelastic analysis was twice as high as the required safety factor under the allowable stress design standard specified in the civil engineering structure design standards for urban magnetic levitation railways, which further verified the advantages of the proposed direct design method.

Keywords: direct design, nonlinear inelastic analysis, residual stress, initial geometric imperfection

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Authors: Sharon Ost Mor, Yuval Palgi, Ddikla Segel-Karpas

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Solitude and positive solitude (PS) are used in literature interchangeably, yet they have different attributes and effects. While solitude might have devastating outcomes such as depression or health deterioration, PS has beneficial outcomes. Yet, both solitude and PS have no clear unanimous definition. Most researches focus on solitude, while the phenomenon of PS is somewhat neglected. Most research deals with young people and adults, while the current research is interested in PS concepts especially in old age. A qualitative study, with 124 participants was performed in order to understand the essence of PS in different age groups. The findings revealed seven categories related to PS, including: Quietness, religious and spiritual experience, escapism, experience in nature or abroad, controlling stress or thoughts, facilitation achievements and recreation-hobbies-routines. Moreover, three meta-themes emerged: PS is a matter of choice, it is meaningful and enjoyable. One stand alone category was found: PS preconditions. Differences between younger and older adults were found in several categories and in PS preconditions, while the meta-themes were equally mentioned by all participants. Based on the participant's reflections and descriptions a new PS paradigm was built and will be presented as well as a new definition of PS. PS was renamed as 'Soulitude' in order to emphasize its' positive nature. Conclusions: PS serves well most people, yet it has different attributes in different ages. By giving PS a unanimous definition and by understanding its' contribution for the elderly, PS might be addressed as a legitimate, stand alone phenomenon. The paradigm might serve theory as well as clinicians for further PS research.

Keywords: old-old, positive solitude, solitude, soulitude

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