Search results for: least square estimates

Authors: Dalin Si, Azizan Aziz, Bertrand Lasternas

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To encourage building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market and reduce building peak demand, this study aims to develop models that predict day-ahead hourly electricity consumption and demand using artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM). All prediction models are built in Python, with tool Scikit-learn and Pybrain. The input data for both consumption and demand prediction are time stamp, outdoor dry bulb temperature, relative humidity, air handling unit (AHU), supply air temperature and solar radiation. Solar radiation, which is unavailable a day-ahead, is predicted at first, and then this estimation is used as an input to predict consumption and demand. Models to predict consumption and demand are trained in both SVM and ANN, and depend on cooling or heating, weekdays or weekends. The results show that ANN is the better option for both consumption and demand prediction. It can achieve 15.50% to 20.03% coefficient of variance of root mean square error (CVRMSE) for consumption prediction and 22.89% to 32.42% CVRMSE for demand prediction, respectively. To conclude, the presented models have potential to help building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market, but they are not robust when used in demand response control.

Keywords: building energy prediction, data mining, demand response, electricity market

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Authors: Armenia Nazar, Sally M. J. Anggelya, Rose Dinda

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Hypertension prevalence in Indonesian has increased from time to time since 2013, especially in women. This cross-sectional analysis study was made to observe the incidence of hypertension on the reproductive women (20-49 years old) with several risk factors who use contraceptive pills. Data was collected from June - October 2016 in the Andalas Public Health Center, East Padang District, Indonesia. An amount of 167 respondents who were taken using consecutive sampling technique were participate in this study. Data of social demography, contraceptive used, duration of use, hypertension risk factors (age, family history, central obesity, body mass index, physical activity, and stress) were collected and analyzed statistically using Chi-Square analysis. Significant was taken at p < 0.05. Results showed that the woman with contraceptive pill was tent to get hypertension (OR = 3,90 and p < 0,001). In addition, woman with a family history OR of 6,77 (p = 0,09), mild physical activity OR of 3,67 (p = 0,33), moderate physical activity OR of 3,33 (p = 0,16), and stressed OR of 5.11 (p = 0.18). These indicated that the contraceptive pill user is 3.9 times more risk to develop hypertension than non-users, especially one with a family history of hypertension. Other risk factors were not associated with hypertension risk in these sex productive women.

Keywords: hypertension, oral contraceptive, sex productive woman, risk factors

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Authors: V. Pourmostaghimi, M. Zadshakoyan

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Efficiency and productivity of the finish hard turning can be enhanced impressively by utilizing accurate predictive models for cutting tool wear. However, the ability of genetic programming in presenting an accurate analytical model is a notable characteristic which makes it more applicable than other predictive modeling methods. In this paper, the genetic equation for modeling of tool flank wear is developed with the use of the experimentally measured flank wear values and genetic programming during finish turning of hardened AISI D2. Series of tests were conducted over a range of cutting parameters and the values of tool flank wear were measured. On the basis of obtained results, genetic model presenting connection between cutting parameters and tool flank wear were extracted. The accuracy of the genetically obtained model was assessed by using two statistical measures, which were root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (R²). Evaluation results revealed that presented genetic model predicted flank wear over the study area accurately (R² = 0.9902 and RMSE = 0.0102). These results allow concluding that the proposed genetic equation corresponds well with experimental data and can be implemented in real industrial applications.

Keywords: cutting parameters, flank wear, genetic programming, hard turning

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Authors: Illyas Md Isa, Maryam Musfirah Che Sobry, Mohamad Syahrizal Ahmad, Nurashikin Abd Azis

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A single-walled carbon nanotube (SWCNT) that has been modified with magnesium layered hydroxide 3-(4-methoxyphenyl)propionic acid nanocomposite was proposed for the determination of uric acid and bisphenol A by square wave voltammetry. The results obtained denote that MLH-MPP nanocomposites enhance the sensitivity of the voltammetry detection responses. The best performance is shown by the modified carbon nanotube paste electrode (CNTPE) with the composition of single-walled carbon nanotube: magnesium layered hydroxide 3-(4-methoxyphenyl)propionic acid nanocomposite at 100:15 (% w/w). The linear range where the sensor works well is within the concentration 1.0 10-7 – 1.0 10-4 and 3.0 10-7 – 1.0 10-4 for uric acid and bisphenol A respectively with the limit of detection of 1.0 10-7 M for both organics. The interferences of uric acid and bisphenol A with other organic were studied and most of them did not interfere. The results shown for each experimental parameter on the proposed CNTPE showed that it has high sensitivity, good selectivity, repeatability and reproducibility. Therefore, the modified CNTPE can be used for the determination of uric acid and bisphenol A in real samples such as blood, plastic bottles and foods.

Keywords: bisphenol A, magnesium layered hydroxide 3-(4-methoxyphenyl)propionic acid nanocomposite, Nanocomposite, uric acid

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Authors: Yi-Chu Liu, Hsiu-Huei Hung, Li-Hui Yang, Ming-Jyh Chen

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introduction: To promote environmental sustainability, the hospital formed a corporate volunteer team in 2016 to build the Green Experiential Education Center. Our green creation center utilizes attic space to achieve sustainability objectives such as energy efficiency and carbon reduction. Other than executing sustainable plans, the center emphasizes experiential education. We invite our community to actively participate in building a sustainable, economically viable environment. Since 2020, the China Medical University Hospital has provided medical care to the Tgbin community in Taichung City's Heping District. The tribe, primarily composed of Atayal people, the elderly comprise 18% of the total population, and these families' per capita income is relatively low compared to Taiwanese citizens elsewhere. Purpose / Methods: With the experiences at the Green Experiential Education Center, CMUH team identifies the following objectives: Create an aquaponic system to supply vulnerable local households with food. Create a solar renewable energy system to meet the electricity needs of vulnerable local households. Promote the purchase of green electricity certificates to reduce the hospital's carbon emissions and generate additional revenue for the local community. Materials and Methods: In March 2020, we visited the community and installed The aquaponic system in January 2021. CMUH spent 150,000NT (approximately 5000US dollars) in March 2021 to build a 100-square-meter aquaponic system. The production of vegetables and fish caught determines the number of vulnerable families that can be supported. The aquaponics system is a kind of Low energy consumption and environmentally friendly production method, and can simultaneously achieve energy saving, water saving, and fertilizer saving .In September 2023, CMUH will complete a solar renewable energy system. The system will cover an area of 308 square meters and costs approximately NT$240,000 (approximately US$8,000). The installation of electricity meters will enable statistical analysis of power generation. And complete the Taiwan National Renewable Energy Certificate application process. The green electricity certificate will be obtained based on the monthly power generation from the solar renewable energy system. Results: I Food availability and access are crucial considering the remote location and aging population. By creating a fish and vegetable symbiosis system, the vegetables and catches produced will enable economically disadvantaged families to lower food costs. In 2021 and 2022, the aquaponic system produced 52 kilograms of vegetables and 75 kilograms of catch. The production ensures the daily needs of 8 disadvantaged families. Conclusions: The hospital serves as a fortress for public health and the ideal setting for corporate social responsibility. China Medical University Hospital and the Green Experiential Education Center work to strengthen ties with rural communities and offer top-notch specialty medical care. We are committed to assisting people in escaping poverty and hunger as part of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.

Keywords: environmental education, sustainability, energy conservation, carbon emissions, rural area development

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Authors: Lakhdar Rahmani, Benhanifia Kada, Brahim Mebarki

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The present paper aims to investigate the natural convection of nanofluid (water-cu) inside a hexagonal enclosure shape embedded with a square obstacle in the presence of hot and cold side walls. The governing equations were solved in a non-uniform unstructured grid by employing the Galerkin finite element method using the software COMSOL Multiphysics. The objective of this study is to analyze the influence of Rayleigh number (103 < Ra < 105), the position of the obstacle, which is located in three different positions (center, bottom, and top side ), and the effect of Nanoparticles volume concentration (0 < Ø < 0.2) on the thermal behavior inside the enclosure, The results are reported as contours of isotherms, streamlines, and average Nusselt numbers. The obtained results illustrate that the increase in the Rayleigh number (Ra) and the Nanoparticles concentration ( Ø ) leads to an increase in the Nusselt number (Nu average ) that signifies the rate of heat transfer in the studied enclosure, in addition to the best performance observed with the position of obstacle that is located at the middle of the enclosure, where has a high effect in improving the heat transfer along the enclosure comparatively with the rest different positions.

Keywords: natural convection, nanofluid (water-Cu), hexagonal enclosure, Nusselt numbers, Rayleigh number

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Authors: Mulata Haile Nega, Derebew Fikadu Berhe, Vera Ribeiro Marques

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There is no epidemiologic data on this gene polymorphism in several countries. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the genotype and allele frequencies of the gene variant in three countries. This study involved healthy individuals from Colombia, Mozambique, and Portugal. Genomic DNA was isolated from blood samples using the Qiamp DNA Extraction Kit (Qiagen). The isolated DNA was genotyped using Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) - Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism. Microstat and GraphPad quick cal software were used for the Chi-square test and evaluation of Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, respectively. A total of 181 individuals’ blood sample was analyzed. Overall, TT (74.0%) genotype was the highest, and CC (7.8%) was the lowest. Country wise genotypic frequencies were Colombia 47(70.2%) TT, 12(17.9%) TC and 8(11.9%) CC; Mozambique 47(88.7%) TT, 5(9.4%) TC, and 1(1.9%) CC; and Portugal 40(65.6%) TT, 16(26.2%) TC, and 5(8.2%) CC. The reference (T) allele was highest among Mozambicans (93.4%) compared to Colombians (79.1%) and Portuguese (78.7%). Mozambicans showed statistically significant genotypic and allelic frequency differences compared to Colombians (p<0.01) and Portuguese (p <0.01). Overall and country-wise, the CC genotype was less frequent and relatively high for Colombians and Portuguese populations. This finding may imply statins risk-benefit variability associated with CC genotype among these populations that needs further understanding.

Keywords: c.521T>C, polymorphism, SLCO1B1, SNP, statins

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Authors: Sadia Imran, Zenab Naseem

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Dengue fever is one of the most alarming mosquito-borne viral diseases. Dengue virus has been distributed over the years exponentially throughout the world be it tropical or sub-tropical regions of the world, particularly in the last ten years. Changing topography, climate change in terms of erratic seasonal trends, rainfall, untimely monsoon early or late and longer or shorter incidences of either summer or winter. Globalization, frequent travel throughout the world and viral evolution has lead to more severe forms of Dengue. Global incidence of dengue infections per year have ranged between 50 million and 200 million; however, recent estimates using cartographic approaches suggest this number is closer to almost 400 million. In recent years, Pakistan experienced a deadly outbreak of the disease. The reason could be that they have the maximum exposure outdoors. Public organizations have observed that changing climate, especially lower average summer temperature, and increased vegetation have created tropical-like conditions in the city, which are suitable for Dengue virus growth. We will conduct a time-series analysis to study the interrelationship between dengue incidence and diurnal ranges of temperature and humidity in Pakistan, Lahore being the main focus of our study. We have used annual data from 2005 to 2015. We have investigated the relationship between climatic variables and dengue incidence. We used time series analysis to describe temporal trends. The result shows rising trends of Dengue over the past 10 years along with the rise in temperature & rainfall in Lahore. Hence this seconds the popular statement that the world is suffering due to Climate change and Global warming at different levels. Disease outbreak is one of the most alarming indications of mankind heading towards destruction and we need to think of mitigating measures to control epidemic from spreading and enveloping the cities, countries and regions.

Keywords: Dengue, epidemic, globalization, climate change

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Authors: Jui-Chen Huang, Shou-Hsiung Cheng

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This study examined their willingness to use telecare for people who have had experience falling in the last three months in Taiwan. This study adopted convenience sampling and a structural questionnaire to collect data. It was based on the definition and the constructs related to the Health Belief Model (HBM). HBM is comprised of seven constructs: perceived benefits (PBs), perceived disease threat (PDT), perceived barriers of taking action (PBTA), external cues to action (ECUE), internal cues to action (ICUE), attitude toward using (ATT), and behavioral intention to use (BI). This study adopted Fuzzy Neural Network (FNN) to put forward an effective method. It shows the dependence of ATT on PB, PDT, PBTA, ECUE, and ICUE. The training and testing data RMSE (root mean square error) are 0.028 and 0.166 in the FNN, respectively. The training and testing data RMSE are 0.828 and 0.578 in the regression model, respectively. On the other hand, as to the dependence of ATT on BI, as presented in the FNN, the training and testing data RMSE are 0.050 and 0.109, respectively. The training and testing data RMSE are 0.529 and 0.571 in the regression model, respectively. The results show that the FNN method is better than the regression analysis. It is an effective and viable good way.

Keywords: fall, fuzzy neural network, health belief model, telecare, willingness

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Authors: M. A. Ojo, O. A. Ojo, A. I. Odine, A. Ogaji

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The study examined marginal productivity analysis of small scale yam and cassava farmers in Kogi State, Nigeria. Data used for the study were obtained from primary source using a multi-stage sampling technique with structured questionnaires administered to 150 randomly selected yam and cassava farmers from three Local Government Areas of the State. Description statistics, data envelopment analysis and Cobb-Douglas production function were used to analyze the data. The DEA result on the overall technical efficiency of the farmers showed that 40% of the sampled yam and cassava farmers in the study area were operating at frontier and optimum level of production with mean technical efficiency of 1.00. This implies that 60% of the yam and cassava farmers in the study area can still improve their level of efficiency through better utilization of available resources, given the current state of technology. The results of the Cobb-Douglas analysis of factors affecting the output of yam and cassava farmers showed that labour, planting materials, fertilizer and capital inputs positively and significantly affected the output of the yam and cassava farmers in the study area. The study further revealed that yam and cassava farms in the study area operated under increasing returns to scale. This result of marginal productivity analysis further showed that relatively efficient farms were more marginally productive in resource utilization This study also shows that estimating production functions without separating the farms to efficient and inefficient farms bias the parameter values obtained from such production function. It is therefore recommended that yam and cassava farmers in the study area should form cooperative societies so as to enable them have access to productive inputs that will enable them expand. Also, since using a single equation model for production function produces a bias parameter estimates as confirmed above, farms should, therefore, be decomposed into efficient and inefficient ones before production function estimation is done.

Keywords: marginal productivity, DEA, production function, Kogi state

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Authors: R. A. Moronfolu, I. M. Ndaks, O. E. Ifekoya

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This study investigated Gender Stereotypes in Leadership Behaviour and its consequent effect on Job Performance of Sports Council Personnel in Lagos State. The descriptive research method was adapted in conducting the study, while eighty sports personnel of Lagos State sports council, Lagos, Nigeria were drawn as respondents using the stratified random sampling technique. A self-structured questionnaire titled “ Gender- Leader Performance Questionnaire (GLPQ) ”was used for data collection. The GLPQ was face validated by three experts in sports management and was subjected to a pilot test using the test retest method for reliability. A total of eighty copies of the validated GLPQ were administered on selected respondents and retrieved on the spot. The descriptive statistics of frequency counts and percentages were used in describing the demographic data collected, while the inferential statistics of Chi-square (X2) and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) were used in drawing inferences at a level of significance of 0.05. It was observed that gender stereotypes and behaviours of leaders in Lagos State Sports Council, significantly differ. In addition, gender stereotypes and leadership behavior were observed to significantly influence the job performance of sports council personnel in Lagos State.

Keywords: gender, leadership, stereotype, performance

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Authors: Phimsupha Kokchang, Divine Ifransca Wijaya

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The energy transition is crucial for mitigating climate change and achieving sustainable development and resilience. As the energy transition advances, generation Z is entering the economic world and will soon be responsible for taking care of the environment. This study aims to investigate the factors influencing generation Z’s pro-environmental behavior to support the energy transition. The theory of planned behavior approach was combined with the pro-environmental behavior concept to examine generation Z’s support toward the energy transition through participating in activism, using energy from renewable sources, opting for energy-efficient utilities or vehicles, and influencing others. Data were collected through an online questionnaire of 400 respondents aged 18-26 living in Jakarta, Indonesia. Partial least square structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) using SmartPLS 3.0 software was used to analyze the reliability and validity of the measurement model. The results show that attitude, subjective norms, and perceived behavior control positively correlate with generation Z’s pro-environmental behavior to support the energy transition. This finding could enhance understanding and provide insights to formulate effective strategies and policies to increase generation Z’s support towards the energy transition. This study contributes to the energy transition discussion as it is included in the Sustainable Development Goals, as well as pro-environmental behavior and theory of planned behavior literature.

Keywords: energy transition, pro-environmental behavior, theory of planned behavior, generation Z

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Authors: Alhaji M. H. Conteh, Xiangbin Yan, Alfred V. Gborie

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The goal of this study was to increase the awareness of the description and assessments of rice acreage response and to offer mechanisms for agricultural policy scrutiny. The Ordinary Least Square (OLS) technique was utilized to determine the coefficients of acreage response models for the rice varieties. The magnitudes of the coefficients (λ) of both the ROK lagged and NERICA lagged acreages were found positive and highly significant, which indicates that farmers’ adjustment rate was very low. Regarding lagged actual price for both the ROK and NERICE rice varieties, the short-run price elasticities were lower than long-run, which is suggesting a long-term adjustment of the acreage, is under the crop. However, the apparent recommendations for policy transformation are to open farm gate prices and to decrease government’s involvement in agricultural sector especially in the acquisition of agricultural inputs. Impending research have to be centred on how this might be better realized. Necessary conditions should be made available to the private sector by means of minimizing price volatility. In accordance with structural reforms, it is necessary to convey output prices to farmers with minimum distortion. There is a need to eradicate price subsidies and control, which generate distortion in the market in addition to huge financial costs.

Keywords: acreage response, rate of adjustment, rice varieties, Sierra Leone

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Authors: Nizar Ahmad

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Peace without community participation will remain a vision, so, this study presents the contribution and efforts made by community base organization in views of local conflict affect population in Pakhtun society. A four conflict affected villages of Malakad Division were selected and a sample size of 278 household respondents were determined through online survey system software out of total 982 households. A Chi-square test was applied to ascertain association between various communication base organizations factors with state of peace in the area. It was found that provision of humanitarian aid, rehabilitation of displaced population, rebuilding of trust in government and peace festivals by communication organization had significant association with state of peace in the area. In contrast provision of training, peace education monitoring and reporting of human rights violation in war zone by local organization was non-significantly related to the state of peace in the area. Community base organization play an active role in building peace in the area but lack capacity, linkages with external actors and outside support. National and international organization actors working in the area of peace and conflict resolution need to focus on the capacity, networking and peace initiatives of local organizations working in fragile context.

Keywords: community base peacebuilding, conflict resolution, terrorism, violence

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Authors: Raka Aldy Nugraha, Kiwah Andanni, Aditya Indra Pratama, Aswin Guntara

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Background: Torus palatinus is a bony protuberance in the hard palate. Sex and race are considered as influencing factors for the development of torus palatinus. Hence, the objective of this study was to determine the prevalence and characteristics of torus palatinus and its correlation with sex and ethnicity among Western Indonesian Population. Methods: We conducted a descriptive and analytical study employing cross-sectional design in 274 new students of Universitas Indonesia. Data were collected by using consecutive sampling method through questionnaire-filling and direct oral examination. Subject with racial background other than indigenous Indonesian Mongol were excluded from this study. Data were statistically analyzed using chi square test for categorical variables whereas logistic regression model was employed to assess the correlation between variables of interest with prevalence of torus palatinus. Results: Torus palatinus were found in 212 subjects (77.4%), mostly small in size (< 3 mm) and single in number, with percentage of 50.5% and 90.6%, respectively. The prevalence of torus palatinus were significantly higher in women (OR 2.88; 95% CI: 1.53-5.39; p = 0.001), dominated by medium-sized and single tori. There was no significant correlation between ethnicity and the occurrence of torus palatinus among Western Indonesian population. Conclusion: Torus palatinus was prevalent among Western Indonesian population. It showed significant positive correlation with sex, but not with ethnicity.

Keywords: characteristic, ethnicity, Indonesia, mongoloid, prevalence, sex, Torus palatinus

Procedia PDF Downloads 268

Authors: Özgür Emi̇nağaoğlu, Hayal Akyildirim Beğen, Şevval Sali̇oğlu, Emrah Yüksel

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This study was carried out in order to determine the scientific name, common name, local names, location, botanical characteristics, used parts, intended use, local usage patterns, usage in the literature of plant species used for medicinal and aromatic purposes in Ardanuç (Artvin, Türkiye) between 2020-2023 years. The research area is located in the A9 square according to Davis’s grid system and is phytogeographically located in the colchic subsection of the Euxine part of the Euro-Siberian flora area of the Holarctic region. As a result of the studies, it has been determined that 167 plant species belonging to 79 families are used for medicinal and aromatic purposes. The families that contain the most taxa in the research area are, respectively, Rosaceae (19 taxa), Asterecaeae (15 taxa), and Lamiaceae (14 taxa). It has been determined that the medicinal, aromatic plants of the Ardanuç region are mostly used in the treatment of diseases (59%), and the plants are mostly used in the treatment of diabetes (37%). It was determined that the most applied method in the internal use of plants was decoction (48%). As a result of the research, the most commonly used plants in different diseases are Sambucus nigra, Plantago lanceolata, Satureja hortensis, Hypericum perforatum, Juniperus communis. These plants are used in the treatment of many diseases, such as colds, cancer, anemia and diabetes.

Keywords: Ardanuç, Artvin, Medicinal and Aromatic plant, Türkiye

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Authors: Angelo Lerro, Manuela Battipede, Piero Gili, Alberto Brandl

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Redundancy requirements for UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) are hardly faced due to the generally restricted amount of available space and allowable weight for the aircraft systems, limiting their exploitation. Essential equipment as the Air Data, Attitude and Heading Reference Systems (ADAHRS) require several external probes to measure significant data as the Angle of Attack or the Sideslip Angle. Previous research focused on the analysis of a patented technology named Smart-ADAHRS (Smart Air Data, Attitude and Heading Reference System) as an alternative method to obtain reliable and accurate estimates of the aerodynamic angles. This solution is based on an innovative sensor fusion algorithm implementing soft computing techniques and it allows to obtain a simplified inertial and air data system reducing external devices. In fact, only one external source of dynamic and static pressures is needed. This paper focuses on the benefits which would be gained by the implementation of this system in UAV applications. A simplification of the entire ADAHRS architecture will bring to reduce the overall cost together with improved safety performance. Smart-ADAHRS has currently reached Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 6. Real flight tests took place on ultralight aircraft equipped with a suitable Flight Test Instrumentation (FTI). The output of the algorithm using the flight test measurements demonstrates the capability for this fusion algorithm to embed in a single device multiple physical and virtual sensors. Any source of dynamic and static pressure can be integrated with this system gaining a significant improvement in terms of versatility.

Keywords: aerodynamic angles, air data system, flight test, neural network, unmanned aerial vehicle, virtual sensor

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Authors: Raif Parlakkaya, Huseyin Cetin, Duygu Irdiren

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By the development of World Wide Web, the usage rate of Internet has rapidly grown globally; and provided a basis for the emergence of electronic business. As well as other sectors, the banking sector has adopted the use of internet with the developments in information and communication technologies. Due to the public disclosure and transparency principle of Corporate Governance, the importance of information disclosure of banks on their web sites has increased significantly. For the purpose of this study, a Bank Disclosure Attribute Index (BDAI) in Turkey has been constructed through classifying the information disclosure on banks’ web sites into general, financial, investors and corporate governance attributes. All 47 banks in Turkish Banking System have been evaluated according to the index with the aim of providing a comparison between banks. By Chi Square Test, Pearson Correlation, T-Test, and ANOVA statistical tools, it has been concluded that the majority of banks in Turkey have shared information on their web sites adequately with respect to their total index score. Although there is a positive correlation between various types of information on banks’ web sites, there is no uniformity among them. Also, no significant difference between various types of information disclosure and bank types has been observed. Compared with the total index score averages of the five largest banks in Turkey, there are some banks that need to improve the content of their web sites.

Keywords: internet banking, websites evaluation, customer adoption, Turkey

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Authors: Lawong Damian Bernsah

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Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs) are most predominant among the poor and rural populations and are endemic in 149 countries. These diseases are the most prevalent and responsible for infecting 1.4 billion people worldwide. There are 17 neglected tropical diseases recognized by WHO that constitute the fourth largest disease health and economic burden of all communicable diseases. Five of these 17 diseases are considered for the cost analysis of this paper: lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, trachoma, schistosomiasis, and soil transmitted helminth infections. WHO has proposed a roadmap for eradication and elimination by 2020 and treatments have been donated through the London Declaration by pharmaceutical manufacturers. The paper estimates the cost of NTD control programme and elimination for each NTD disease and total in Nigeria. This is necessary as it forms the bases upon which programme budget and expenditure could be based. Again, given the opportunity cost the resources for NTD face it is necessary to estimate the cost so as to provide bases for comparison. Cost of NTDs control and elimination programme is estimated using the population at risk for each NTD diseases and for the total. The population at risk is gotten from the national master plan for the 2015 - 2020, while the cost per person was gotten for similar studies conducted in similar settings and ranges from US$0.1 to US$0.5 for Mass Administration of Medicine (MAM) and between US$1 to US$1.5 for each NTD disease. The combined cost for all the NTDs was estimated to be US$634.88 million for the period 2015-2020 and US$1.9 billion for each NTD disease for the same period. For the purpose of sensitivity analysis and for robustness of the analysis the cost per person was varied and all were still high. Given that health expenditure for Nigeria (% of GDP) averages 3.5% for the period 1995-2014, it is very clear that efforts have to be made to improve allocation to the health sector in general which is hoped could trickle to NTDs control and elimination. Thus, the government and the donor partners would need to step-up budgetary allocation and also to be aware of the costs of NTD control and elimination programme since they have alternative uses. Key Words: Neglected Tropical Disease, Cost Analysis, NTD Programme Control and Elimination, Cost per Person

Keywords: Neglected Tropical Disease, Cost Analysis, Neglected Tropical Disease Programme Control and Elimination, Cost per Person

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Authors: Salah A. Aly, Mohammed A. Ibrahim, Mostafa M. khttab

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The amount of construction and demolition (C&D) waste has increased considerably over the last few decades. From the viewpoint of environmental preservation and effective utilization of resources, crushing C&D concrete waste to produce coarse aggregate (CA) with different replacement percentage for the production of new concrete is one common means for achieving a more environment-friendly concrete. In the study presented herein, the investigation was conducted in two phases. In the first phase, the selection of the materials was carried out and the physical, mechanical and chemical characteristics of these materials were evaluated. Different concrete mixes were designed. The investigation parameter was Recycled Concrete Aggregate (RCA) ratios. The mechanical properties of all mixes were evaluated based on compressive strength and workability results. Accordingly, two mixes have been chosen to be used in the next phase. In the second phase, the study of the structural behavior of the concrete beams was developed. Sixteen beams were casted to investigate the effect of RCA ratios, the shear span to depth ratios and the effect of different locations and reinforcement of openings on the shear behavior of the tested specimens. All these beams were designed to fail in shear. Test results of the compressive strength of concrete indicated that, replacement of natural aggregate by up to 50% recycled concrete aggregates in mixtures with 350 Kg/m3 cement content led to increase of concrete compressive strength. Moreover, the tensile strength and the modulus of elasticity of the specimens with RCA have very close values to those with natural aggregates. The ultimate shear strength of beams with RCA is very close to those with natural aggregates indicating the possibility of using RCA as partial replacement to produce structural concrete elements. The validity of both the Egyptian Code for the design and implementation of Concrete Structures (ECCS) 203-2007 and American Concrete Institute (ACI) 318-2011Codes for estimating the shear strength of the tested RCA beams was investigated. It was found that the codes procedures gives conservative estimates for shear strength.

Keywords: construction and demolition (C&D) waste, coarse aggregate (CA), recycled coarse aggregates (RCA), opening

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Authors: Rufus Temidayo Akinnubi, M. O. Adeniyi

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Existing diurnal air temperature models simulate night time air temperature over Nigeria with high biases. An improved parameterization is presented for modeling the diurnal pattern of air temperature (Ta) which is applicable in the calculation of turbulent heat fluxes in Global climate models, based on Nigeria Micrometeorological Experimental site (NIMEX) surface layer observations. Five diurnal Ta models for estimating hourly Ta from daily maximum, daily minimum, and daily mean air temperature were validated using root-mean-square error (RMSE), Mean Error Bias (MBE) and scatter graphs. The original Fourier series model showed better performance for unstable air temperature parameterizations while the stable Ta was strongly overestimated with a large error. The model was improved with the inclusion of the atmospheric cooling rate that accounts for the temperature inversion that occurs during the nocturnal boundary layer condition. The MBE and RMSE estimated by the modified Fourier series model reduced by 4.45 oC and 3.12 oC during the transitional period from dry to wet stable atmospheric conditions. The modified Fourier series model gave good estimation of the diurnal weather patterns of Ta when compared with other existing models for a tropical environment.

Keywords: air temperature, mean bias error, Fourier series analysis, surface energy balance,

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Authors: Anthony J. Kondracki, Bonzo Reddick, Jennifer L. Barkin

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Background: Many pregnancies in the United States are affected each year with the most common sexually transmitted infections (STIs), including Chlamydia trachomatis (CT), Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG), and Treponema pallidum (TP, syphilis), and the rate of congenital syphilis has reached a 20-year high. We sought to estimate the prevalence of CT, NG, and TP in pregnancy and the risk of preterm birth (PTB) (<37 weeks gestation) and low birthweight (LBW) (<2500g) deliveries according to utilization of prenatal care (PNC) during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: This study was based on the 2020 National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) Natality File restricted to singleton births (N=3,512,858). We estimated the prevalence of CT, NG, TP, PTBand LBW across timing and the number of prenatal care (PNC) visits attended. In multivariable logistic regression models, adjusted odds ratios of PTB and LBW were assessed according to STIs and PNC status. E-values, based on effect size estimates and the lower bound of the 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the association, examined the potential impact of unmeasured confounding. Results: CT (1.8%) was most prevalent in pregnancy, followed by NG (0.3%) and TP (0.1%). The strongest predictors of PTB and LBW were maternal NG (12.2% and 12.1%, respectively), late initiation/no PNC (8.5% and 7.6%, respectively), and ≤10 prenatal visits (13.1% and 10.3%, respectively). The odds of PTB and LBW were 2.5- to 3-fold greater for each STI in women who received ≤10 compared to >10 prenatal visits. E-values demonstrated the minimum strength of potential unmeasured confounding necessary to explain away observed associations. Conclusions: Timely initiation and receipt of recommended number of prenatal visits benefits screening and treatment of all women for STIs, including NG to substantially reduce infant morbidity and mortality related to PTB and LBW among infants born during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic, sexually transmitted infections, preterm birth, low birthweight, prenatal care

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Authors: Etienne Sugewe

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Purpose: The establishment of a positive HIV serologic status of an individual could have been an inhibitory factor to prevent risk behaviours in people living with HIV/AIDS. We conducted a cross-sectional study in order to assess the prevalence and predictors of risk behaviors among HIV-positive people in Douala-Cameroon. Methods: We used pre-checked questionnaires to systematically collect data from four HIV treatment centers in Douala. This was done to some of them during the distribution of drugs and to others during their classical rendezvous between the months of May and July 2012. The Chi-Square and Student t-test were used for cross tabulation of variables; multiple regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of risky sexual behaviours. Results: Of the 330 persons interviewed, sixty percent were reported to have had sexual intercourse after the diagnosis of HIV. We obtained 37% HIV-positive partners, and 63% had HIV- negative partners or partners with unknown status. Among our patients, 45% of the subjects with regular partners reported to have had anal or vaginal sex. Those whose score on the knowledge about HIV/AIDS was < 50% and where 90% of them were less susceptible to the condom during intercourse (p: 0.01). About 74% of patients on ARV were less susceptible to the use of condoms during sexual intercourse (p: 0.03). Conclusion: Risk sexual behaviours among people living with HIV/AIDS are common and potentially expose their partners. For HIV-positive partners, these habits pose a real risk of suprainfection by other strains of HIV. The need to increase awareness and education among people living with HIV is therefore highly recommended.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS, behaviours, HIV positive, Douala, 2012

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Authors: Hadjadj Abdechafik, Kious Mecheri, Ameur Aissa

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The objective of this study is to develop a process of treatment of the vibratory signals generated during a horizontal high speed milling process without applying any coolant in order to establish a monitoring system able to improve the machining performance. Thus, many tests were carried out on the horizontal high speed centre (PCI Météor 10), in given cutting conditions, by using a milling cutter with only one insert and measured its frontal wear from its new state that is considered as a reference state until a worn state that is considered as unsuitable for the tool to be used. The results obtained show that the first harmonic follow well the evolution of frontal wear, on another hand a wavelet transform is used for signal processing and is found to be useful for observing the evolution of the wavelet approximations through the cutting tool life. The power and the Root Mean Square (RMS) values of the wavelet transformed signal gave the best results and can be used for tool wear estimation. All this features can constitute the suitable indicators for an effective detection of tool wear and then used for the input parameters of an online monitoring system. Although we noted the remarkable influence of the machining cycle on the quality of measurements by the introduction of a bias on the signal, this phenomenon appears in particular in horizontal milling and in the majority of studies is ignored.

Keywords: flank wear, vibration, milling, signal processing, monitoring

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Authors: Masoud Abbasalipour

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In this study, the impact of family status on individuals, involving factors such as parents' literacy level, family size, individuals' blood group, and susceptibility to addiction, was investigated. Statistical tests were employed to scrutinize the relationships among these specified factors. The statistical population of the study consisted of 338 samples divided into two groups: individuals with addiction and those without addiction in the city of Amol. The addicted group was selected from individuals visiting the substance abuse treatment center in Amol, and the non-addicted group was randomly selected from individuals in urban and rural areas. The Chi-square test was used to examine the presence or absence of relationships among the variables, and Kramer's V test was employed to determine the strength of the relationship between them. Excel software facilitated the initial entry of data, and SPSS software was utilized for the desired statistical tests. The research results indicated a significant relationship between the variable of parents' education level and individuals' addiction. The analysis showed that the education level of their parents was significantly lower compared to non-addicted individuals. However, the variables of the number of family members and blood group did not significantly impact individuals' susceptibility to addiction.

Keywords: addiction, blood group, parents' literacy level, family status

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Authors: Xiaoqin Wang, Li Yin

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Background and purpose: In many practices, one estimates causal effects arising from a complex stochastic process, where a sequence of treatments are assigned to influence a certain outcome of interest, and there exist time-dependent covariates between treatments. When covariates are plentiful and/or continuous, statistical modeling is needed to reduce the huge dimensionality of the problem and allow for the estimation of causal effects. Recently, Wang and Yin (Annals of statistics, 2020) derived a new general formula, which expresses these causal effects in terms of the point effects of treatments in single-point causal inference. As a result, it is possible to conduct the modeling via point effects. The purpose of the work is to study the modeling of these causal effects via point effects. Challenges and solutions: The time-dependent covariates often have influences from earlier treatments as well as on subsequent treatments. Consequently, the standard parameters – i.e., the mean of the outcome given all treatments and covariates-- are essentially all different (null paradox). Furthermore, the dimension of the parameters is huge (curse of dimensionality). Therefore, it can be difficult to conduct the modeling in terms of standard parameters. Instead of standard parameters, we have use point effects of treatments to develop likelihood-based parametric approach to the modeling of these causal effects and are able to model the causal effects of a sequence of treatments by modeling a small number of point effects of individual treatment Achievements: We are able to conduct the modeling of the causal effects from a sequence of treatments in the familiar framework of single-point causal inference. The simulation shows that our method achieves not only an unbiased estimate for the causal effect but also the nominal level of type I error and a low level of type II error for the hypothesis testing. We have applied this method to a longitudinal study of COVID-19 mortality among Scandinavian countries and found that the Swedish approach performed far worse than the other countries' approach for COVID-19 mortality and the poor performance was largely due to its early measure during the initial period of the pandemic.

Keywords: causal effect, point effect, statistical modelling, sequential causal inference

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Authors: Itziar Gonzalez, Pilar Carreras, Alberto Pinto, Roque Ruben Andres

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Acoustophoretic separation of plasma from blood is based on a collection process of the blood cells, driven by an acoustic radiation force. The number of cells, their concentration, and the sample hydrodynamics are involved in these processes. However, their influence on the acoustic blood response has not yet been reported in the literature. Addressing it, this paper presents an experimental study of blood samples exposed to ultrasonic standing waves at different hematocrit levels and hydrodynamic conditions. The experiments were performed in a glass capillary (700µm-square cross section) actuated by a piezoelectric ceramic at 1MHz, hosting 2D orthogonal half-wavelength resonances transverse to the channel length, with a single-pressure-node along its central axis where cells collected driven by the acoustic radiation force. Four blood dilutions in PBS of 1:20, 1:10, 1:5, and 1:2 were tested at eight flow rate conditions Q=0:120µL/min. The 1:5 dilution (H=9%) demonstrated to be optimal for the plasmapheresis at any of the flow rates analyzed, requiring the shortest times to achieve plasma free of cells. The study opens new possibilities to optimize processes of plasmapheresis processes by ultrasounds at different hematocrit conditions in future personalized diagnoses/treatments involving blood samples.

Keywords: ultrasounds, microfluidics, flow rate, acoustophoresis, polymeric resonators

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Authors: Mostafa Osman, Ata El-Kareim Shoeib

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The main objective of this paper is study the influence of carbon nano-tubes fibers and nano silica fibers on the characteristic compressive strength and flexural strength on concrete and cement mortar. Twelve tested specimens were tested with square section its dimensions (40*40*160) mm, divided into four groups. The first and second group studied the effect of carbon nano-tubes (CNTs) fiber with different percentage equal to 0.0, 0.11 %, 0.22 %, and 0.33 % by weight of cement and effect of nano-silica (nS) fibers with different percentages equal to 0.0, 1.0 %, 2.0 %, and 3.0 % by weight of cement on the cement mortar. The third and fourth groups studied the effect of CNTs fiber with different percentage equal to 0.0 %, 0.11 %, and 0.22 % by weight of cement, and effect of nS fibers with different percentages were equal to 0.0 %, 1.0%, and 2.0 % by weight of cement on the concrete. The compressive strength and flexural strength at 7, 28, and 90 days is determined. From analysis of tested results concluded that the nano-fiber is more effective when used with cement mortar than that of used with concrete because of increasing the surface area, decreasing the pore and the collection of nano-fiber. And also by adding nano-fiber the improvement of flexural strength of concrete and cement mortar is more than improvement of compressive strength.

Keywords: carbon nano-tubes (CNTs) fibres, nano-silica (nS) fibres, compressive strength, flexural strength

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Authors: Aoqi Zhang, Changgil Lee Lee, Seunghee Park

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A non-contact nondestructive technique using laser-induced ultrasonic wave generation method was applied to visualize corrosion damage at aluminum alloy plate structures. The ultrasonic waves were generated by a Nd:YAG pulse laser, and a galvanometer-based laser scanner was used to scan specific area at a target structure. At the same time, wave responses were measured at a piezoelectric sensor which was attached on the target structure. The visualization of structural damage was achieved by calculating logarithmic values of root mean square (RMS). Damage-sensitive feature was defined as the scattering characteristics of the waves that encounter corrosion damage. The corroded damage was artificially formed by hydrochloric acid. To observe the effect of the location where the corrosion was formed, the both sides of the plate were scanned with same scanning area. Also, the effect on the depth of the corrosion was considered as well as the effect on the size of the corrosion. The results indicated that the damages were successfully visualized for almost cases, whether the damages were formed at the front or back side. However, the damage could not be clearly detected because the depth of the corrosion was shallow. In the future works, it needs to develop signal processing algorithm to more clearly visualize the damage by improving signal-to-noise ratio.

Keywords: non-destructive testing, corrosion, pulsed laser scanning, ultrasonic waves, plate structure

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Authors: James Ladzekpo

Abstract:

Background: The urgent need to identify new pharmacological targets for diabetes treatment and prevention has been amplified by the disease's extensive impact on individuals and healthcare systems. A deeper insight into the biological underpinnings of diabetes is crucial for the creation of therapeutic strategies aimed at these biological processes. Current predictive models based on genetic variations fall short of accurately forecasting diabetes. Objectives: Our study aims to pinpoint key epigenetic factors that predispose individuals to diabetes. These factors will inform the development of an advanced predictive model that estimates diabetes risk from genetic profiles, utilizing state-of-the-art statistical and data mining methods. Methodology: We have implemented a recursive feature elimination with cross-validation using the support vector machine (SVM) approach for refined feature selection. Building on this, we developed six machine learning models, including logistic regression, k-Nearest Neighbors (k-NN), Naive Bayes, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network, to evaluate their performance. Findings: The Gradient Boosting Classifier excelled, achieving a median recall of 92.17% and outstanding metrics such as area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) with a median of 68%, alongside median accuracy and precision scores of 76%. Through our machine learning analysis, we identified 31 genes significantly associated with diabetes traits, highlighting their potential as biomarkers and targets for diabetes management strategies. Conclusion: Particularly noteworthy were the Gradient Boosting Classifier and Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network, which demonstrated potential in diabetes outcome prediction. We recommend future investigations to incorporate larger cohorts and a wider array of predictive variables to enhance the models' predictive capabilities.

Keywords: diabetes, machine learning, prediction, biomarkers

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