Search results for: audit risk model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 21165

Search results for: audit risk model

21075 A Mixed Approach to Assess Information System Risk, Operational Risk, and Congolese Microfinance Institutions Performance

Authors: Alfred Kamate Siviri, Angelus Mafikiri Tsongo, Jean Robert Kala Kamdjoug

Abstract:

Digitalization and information systems well organized have been selected as relevant measures to mitigate operational risks within organizations. Unfortunately, information system comes with new threats that can cause severe damage and quick organization lockout. This study aims to measure perceived information system risks and their effects on operational risks within the microfinance institution in D.R. Congo. Also, the factors influencing the operational risk are identified, and the link between operational risk with other risks and performance is to be assessed. The study proposes a research model drawn on the combination of Resources-Based-View, dynamic capabilities, the agency theory, the Information System Security Model, and social theories of risk. Therefore, we suggest adopting a mixed methods research with the sole aim of increasing the literature that already exists on perceived operational risk assessment and its link with other risk and performance, a focus on IT risk.

Keywords: Democratic Republic Congo, information system risk, microfinance performance, operational risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 200
21074 Auditing of Building Information Modeling Application in Decoration Engineering Projects in China

Authors: Lan Luo

Abstract:

In China’s construction industry, it is a normal practice to separately subcontract the decoration engineering part from construction engineering, and Building Information Modeling (BIM) is also done separately. Application of BIM in decoration engineering should be integrated with other disciplines, but Chinese current practice makes this very difficult and complicated. Currently, there are three barriers in the auditing of BIM application in decoration engineering in China: heavy workload; scarcity of qualified professionals; and lack of literature concerning audit contents, standards, and methods. Therefore, it is significant to perform research on what (contents) should be evaluated, in which phase, and by whom (professional qualifications) in BIM application in decoration construction so that the application of BIM can be promoted in a better manner. Based on this consideration, four principles of BIM auditing are proposed: Comprehensiveness of information, accuracy of data, aesthetic attractiveness of appearance, and scheme optimization. In the model audit, three methods should be used: Collision, observation, and contrast. In addition, BIM auditing at six stages is discussed and a checklist for work items and results to be submitted is proposed. This checklist can be used for reference by decoration project participants.

Keywords: audit, evaluation, dimensions, methods, standards, BIM application in decoration engineering projects

Procedia PDF Downloads 323
21073 Evaluating Performance of Value at Risk Models for the MENA Islamic Stock Market Portfolios

Authors: Abderrazek Ben Maatoug, Ibrahim Fatnassi, Wassim Ben Ayed

Abstract:

In this paper we investigate the issue of market risk quantification for Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Islamic market equity. We use Value-at-Risk (VaR) as a measure of potential risk in Islamic stock market, for long and short position, based on Riskmetrics model and the conditional parametric ARCH class model volatility with normal, student and skewed student distribution. The sample consist of daily data for the 2006-2014 of 11 Islamic stock markets indices. We conduct Kupiec and Engle and Manganelli tests to evaluate the performance for each model. The main finding of our empirical results show that (i) the superior performance of VaR models based on the Student and skewed Student distribution, for the significance level of α=1% , for all Islamic stock market indices, and for both long and short trading positions (ii) Risk Metrics model, and VaR model based on conditional volatility with normal distribution provides the best accurate VaR estimations for both long and short trading positions for a significance level of α=5%.

Keywords: value-at-risk, risk management, islamic finance, GARCH models

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21072 The Role of the Internal Audit Unit in Detecting and Preventing Fraud at Public Universities in West Java, Indonesia

Authors: Fury Khristianty Fitriyah

Abstract:

This study aims to identify the extent of the role of the Satuan Pengawas Intern (Internal Audit Unit) in detecting and preventing fraud in public universities in West Java under the Ministry of Research, Technology and Higher Education. The research method applied was a qualitative case study approach, while the unit of analysis for this study is the Internal Audit Unit at each public university. Results of this study indicate that the Internal Audit Unit is able to detect and prevent fraud within a public university environment by means of red flags to mark accounting anomalies. These stem from inaccurate budget planning that prompts inappropriate use of funds, exacerbated by late disbursements of funds, which potentially lead to fictitious transactions, and discrepancies in recording state-owned assets into a state property management system (SIMAK BMN), which, if not conducted properly, potentially causes loss to the state.

Keywords: governance, internal control, fraud, public university

Procedia PDF Downloads 256
21071 Exploring Corporate Governance Structure in Gulf Cooperation Council Countries

Authors: Zahra A. Al Nasser, Domenico Campa

Abstract:

This paper investigates board of directors and firms’ ownership structure on non-financial companies listed in Gulf Cooperation council (GCC) countries using data from 2009 to 2013. The overall result of the study is that board size and board meeting have increased over years. Additionally, all combined committee variables have improved as well as audit committee size, audit committee meeting and audit committee experience have improved over the years. Furthermore, Oman is the only country that has not shown any statistically significant change in value of its associated variables.

Keywords: corporate governance, GCC countries, board of directors, ownership structure

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21070 Board Characteristics, Audit Committee Characteristics, and the Level of Bahraini Corporate Compliance with Mandatory IFRS Disclosure Requirements

Authors: Omar Juhmani

Abstract:

This paper examines the relation between internal corporate governance and the level of corporate compliance with mandatory IFRS disclosure requirements. The internal corporate governance is measured by board and audit committee characteristics. Using data from Bahrain Stock Exchange, the results show that board independence is positively and significantly associated with level of compliance with IFRS disclosure requirements. This suggests that internal corporate governance mechanisms are effective in the financial reporting practices by increasing the level of compliance with IFRS disclosures. Also, the results of the regression analyses indicate that two of the control variables; company size and audit firm size are significantly positively associated with the level of corporate compliance with mandatory IFRS disclosure requirements in Bahrain.

Keywords: Bahrain, board and audit committee characteristics, compliance, disclosure, IFRS

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21069 Hybrid Risk Assessment Model for Construction Based on Multicriteria Decision Making Methods

Authors: J. Tamosaitiene

Abstract:

The article focuses on the identification and classification of key risk management criteria that represent the most important sustainability aspects of the construction industry. The construction sector is one of the most important sectors in Lithuania. Nowadays, the assessment of the risk level of a construction project is especially important for the quality of construction projects, the growth of enterprises and the sector. To establish the most important criteria for successful growth of the sector, a questionnaire for experts was developed. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the expert judgement method and other multicriteria decision making (MCDM) methods were used to develop the hybrid model. The results were used to develop an integrated knowledge system for the measurement of a risk level particular to construction projects. The article presents a practical case that details the developed system, sustainable aspects, and risk assessment.

Keywords: risk, system, model, construction

Procedia PDF Downloads 143
21068 The Extent of Big Data Analysis by the External Auditors

Authors: Iyad Ismail, Fathilatul Abdul Hamid

Abstract:

This research was mainly investigated to recognize the extent of big data analysis by external auditors. This paper adopts grounded theory as a framework for conducting a series of semi-structured interviews with eighteen external auditors. The research findings comprised the availability extent of big data and big data analysis usage by the external auditors in Palestine, Gaza Strip. Considering the study's outcomes leads to a series of auditing procedures in order to improve the external auditing techniques, which leads to high-quality audit process. Also, this research is crucial for auditing firms by giving an insight into the mechanisms of auditing firms to identify the most important strategies that help in achieving competitive audit quality. These results are aims to instruct the auditing academic and professional institutions in developing techniques for external auditors in order to the big data analysis. This paper provides appropriate information for the decision-making process and a source of future information which affects technological auditing.

Keywords: big data analysis, external auditors, audit reliance, internal audit function

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21067 A Comparative Study of Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and Extreme Value Theory (EVT) Model in Modeling Value-at-Risk (VaR)

Authors: Longqing Li

Abstract:

The paper addresses the inefficiency of the classical model in measuring the Value-at-Risk (VaR) using a normal distribution or a Student’s t distribution. Specifically, the paper focuses on the one day ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) of major stock market’s daily returns in US, UK, China and Hong Kong in the most recent ten years under 95% confidence level. To improve the predictable power and search for the best performing model, the paper proposes using two leading alternatives, Extreme Value Theory (EVT) and a family of GARCH models, and compares the relative performance. The main contribution could be summarized in two aspects. First, the paper extends the GARCH family model by incorporating EGARCH and TGARCH to shed light on the difference between each in estimating one day ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR). Second, to account for the non-normality in the distribution of financial markets, the paper applies Generalized Error Distribution (GED), instead of the normal distribution, to govern the innovation term. A dynamic back-testing procedure is employed to assess the performance of each model, a family of GARCH and the conditional EVT. The conclusion is that Exponential GARCH yields the best estimate in out-of-sample one day ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasting. Moreover, the discrepancy of performance between the GARCH and the conditional EVT is indistinguishable.

Keywords: Value-at-Risk, Extreme Value Theory, conditional EVT, backtesting

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21066 Monitoring Systemic Risk in the Hedge Fund Sector

Authors: Frank Hespeler, Giuseppe Loiacono

Abstract:

We propose measures for systemic risk generated through intra-sectorial interdependencies in the hedge fund sector. These measures are based on variations in the average cross-effects of funds showing significant interdependency between their individual returns and the moments of the sector’s return distribution. The proposed measures display a high ability to identify periods of financial distress, are robust to modifications in the underlying econometric model and are consistent with intuitive interpretation of the results.

Keywords: hedge funds, systemic risk, vector autoregressive model, risk monitoring

Procedia PDF Downloads 299
21065 Optimal Secondary Prevention and Background Risk

Authors: Mohamed Anouar Razgallah

Abstract:

This paper examines in the context of a one-period model the impact of background risk on the optimal secondary prevention. We conduct our study based on various configurations of the background risk. We intend to show that in most cases the level of secondary prevention effort varied after the introduction of background risk, however, in very few cases this level remains constant.

Keywords: secondary prevention, primary prevention, background risk, ecomomics

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21064 Quality Management System Audit and Its Impact on Company's Performance

Authors: Redha Elhuni

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to find out the impact of Quality Management System (QMS) ISO/IEC 17025:2005 certification audit on company’s Performance. Libyan petroleum Institute has been certified ISO/IEC 17025:2005 for 8 years. Therefore, it is necessary to study and analyze the impact of that certification on its performance. Survey study has been done by distributing a questionnaire by handing it personally to qualified staff in the 15 accredited laboratories in the institute. The response rate was 66.6%. The statistical operations with the results of analytical study have been done to achieve the goal and objectives of the research. Finally, ISO/IEC 17025:2005 certification audit is found to have a positive effect on the institute’s performance.

Keywords: auditing process, ISO/IEC 17025:2005, quality management system, Libyan petroleum institute

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21063 An Audit of Restaging Transurethral Resection of Bladder Tumor (Re-TURBT) Quality in a District General Hospital

Authors: Rizwan Iqbal

Abstract:

Introduction: Re-TURBT has been recommended by international guidelines for patients with non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) who are deemed high-risk. Indications for re-TURBTs remain controversial and studies show mixed outcomes. It should be performed when the initial TURBT specimen lacks detrusor muscle, has tumor stage pT1 or G3/high-grade, or where resection is deemed incomplete. This ensures complete resection of tumors that have a high risk of recurrence as well as accurately identifying any tumors which have been upstaged. The aim of this audit was to evaluate the quality of re-TURBTs in a district general hospital. Method: Data were retrospectively collected from 31 patients who had re-TURBTs between April 2021 and September 2022. Data included baseline demographics, time from initial to re-TURBT, quality of operation note, presence of residual tumor, complications, and administration of chemotherapy within 24 hours of the initial TURBT. Data collection remains ongoing at the time of writing. Results: The mean age was 76 years old and 71.0% of patients were male. 32.3% of patients had their re-TURBT within six weeks and 32.3% had intravesical chemotherapy administered within 24 hours of the initial TURBT. 74.2% of initial TURBTs had detrusor muscle present in the specimen. 48.4% of patients had residual disease following re-TURBT. Just one patient had their pathology upstaged at re-TURBT. The use of the TURBT proforma on the operation note was variable, with 51.6% and 38.7% of surgeons using the proforma after the initial and re-TURBT. Conclusion: Re-TURBT improves bladder cancer staging and is necessary in patients who are deemed high-risk in order to identify any upstaging or recurrence of the disease.

Keywords: urology, bladder cancer, turbt, cancer

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21062 An Analysis of Institutional Audits: Basis for Teaching, Learning and Assessment Framework and Principles

Authors: Nabil El Kadhi, Minerva M. Bunagan

Abstract:

The dynamism in education, particularly in the area of teaching, learning and assessment has caused Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) worldwide to seek for ways to continuously improve their educational processes. HEIs use outcomes of institutional audits, assessments and accreditations, for improvement. In this study, the published institutional audit reports of HEIs in the Sultanate of Oman were analyzed to produce features of good practice; identify challenges along Teaching, Learning Assessment (TLA); and propose a framework that puts major emphasis in having a quality-assured TLA, including a set of principles that can be used as basis in succeeding an institutional visit. The TLA framework, which shows the TLA components, characteristics of the components, related expectation, including implementation tool/ strategy and pitfalls can be used by HEIs to have an adequate understanding of the scope of audit and be able to satisfy institutional audit requirements. The scope of this study can be widened by exploring the other requirements of the Institutional Audits in the Sultanate of Oman, particularly the area on Governance and Management and Student Support Services.

Keywords: accreditation, audit, teaching, learning and assessment, quality assurance

Procedia PDF Downloads 276
21061 Bayesian Value at Risk Forecast Using Realized Conditional Autoregressive Expectiel Mdodel with an Application of Cryptocurrency

Authors: Niya Chen, Jennifer Chan

Abstract:

In the financial market, risk management helps to minimize potential loss and maximize profit. There are two ways to assess risks; the first way is to calculate the risk directly based on the volatility. The most common risk measurements are Value at Risk (VaR), sharp ratio, and beta. Alternatively, we could look at the quantile of the return to assess the risk. Popular return models such as GARCH and stochastic volatility (SV) focus on modeling the mean of the return distribution via capturing the volatility dynamics; however, the quantile/expectile method will give us an idea of the distribution with the extreme return value. It will allow us to forecast VaR using return which is direct information. The advantage of using these non-parametric methods is that it is not bounded by the distribution assumptions from the parametric method. But the difference between them is that expectile uses a second-order loss function while quantile regression uses a first-order loss function. We consider several quantile functions, different volatility measures, and estimates from some volatility models. To estimate the expectile of the model, we use Realized Conditional Autoregressive Expectile (CARE) model with the bayesian method to achieve this. We would like to see if our proposed models outperform existing models in cryptocurrency, and we will test it by using Bitcoin mainly as well as Ethereum.

Keywords: expectile, CARE Model, CARR Model, quantile, cryptocurrency, Value at Risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 88
21060 Impact of Audit Committee on Earning Quality of Listed Consumer Goods Companies in Nigeria

Authors: Usman Yakubu, Muktar Haruna

Abstract:

The paper examines the impact of the audit committee on the earning quality of the listed consumer goods sector in Nigeria. The study used data collected from annual reports and accounts of the 13 sampled companies for the periods 2007 to 2018. Data were analyzed by means of descriptive statistics to provide summary statistics for the variables; also, correlation analysis was carried out using the Pearson correlation technique for the correlation between the dependent and independent variables. Regression was employed using the Generalized Least Square technique since the data has both time series and cross sectional attributes (panel data). It was found out that the audit committee had a positive and significant influence on the earning quality in the listed consumer goods companies in Nigeria. Thus, the study recommends that competency and personal integrity should be the worthwhile attributes to be considered while constituting the committee; this could enhance the quality of accounting information. In addition to that majority of the committee members should be independent directors in order to allow a high level of independency to be exercised.

Keywords: earning quality, corporate governance, audit committee, financial reporting

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21059 Corporate Governance Mechanisms, Whistle-Blowing Policy and Earnings Management Practices of Firms in Malaysia

Authors: Mujeeb Saif Mohsen Al-Absy, Ku Nor Izah Ku Ismail, Sitraselvi Chandren

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This study examines whether corporate governance (CG) mechanisms in firms that have a whistle-blowing policy (WHBLP) are more effective in constraining earnings management (EM), than those without. A sample of 288 Malaysian firms for the years 2013 to 2015, amounting to 864 firm-years were grouped into firms with and without WHBLP. Results show that for firms without WHBLP, the board chairman tenure would minimize EM activities. Meanwhile, for firms with WHBLP, board chairman independence, board chairman tenure, audit committee size, audit committee meeting and women in the audit committees are found to be associated with less EM activities. Further, it is found that ownership concentration and Big 4 auditing firms help to reduce EM activities in firms with WHBLP, while not in firms without WHBLP. Hence, functional and effective governance can be achieved by having a WHBLP, which is in line with agency and resource dependent theories. Therefore, this study suggests that firms should have a WHBLP in place, and policymakers should come up with enhanced criteria to strengthen the mechanisms of WHBLP.

Keywords: corporate governance, earnings management, whistle-blowing policy, audit committee, board of directors

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21058 Gender Mainstreaming in Kazakhstan: A University Audit as the First Stage to Inform Policy

Authors: A. S. CohenMiller, Jenifer Lewis, Gwen McEvoy, Kristy Kelly

Abstract:

This international, interdisciplinary study presents the first stage of a gender mainstreaming project within one university as a microcosm of society in Kazakhstan to make concrete policy recommendations and set up the potential for new research to monitor change over time. Local, regional, and UN representatives have noted the critical need and interest in gender related issues in Kazakhstan. Gender mainstreaming has been noted as a strategy to understand and address gender equality and equity such as within the academy in exploring and examining organizational/management issues, university decision-making and leadership, assessing the overall academic climate, discrimination issues, hiring and promotion, and student recruitment and retention. This presentation provides preliminary findings from the university gender audit, highlighting key elements for moving forward in gender mainstreaming. The full study analyzes findings from the full gender audit including interview with key stakeholders, time-use surveys, participant-observations and interviews with female students, staff and faculty, and reviews of formal organizational policies and practices.

Keywords: academia, equity, Eurasia, gender audit, gender mainstreaming, Kazakhstan, policy, time-use survey

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21057 Apricot Insurance Portfolio Risk

Authors: Kasirga Yildirak, Ismail Gur

Abstract:

We propose a model to measure hail risk of an Agricultural Insurance portfolio. Hail is one of the major catastrophic event that causes big amount of loss to an insurer. Moreover, it is very hard to predict due to its strange atmospheric characteristics. We make use of parcel based claims data on apricot damage collected by the Turkish Agricultural Insurance Pool (TARSIM). As our ultimate aim is to compute the loadings assigned to specific parcels, we build a portfolio risk model that makes use of PD and the severity of the exposures. PD is computed by Spherical-Linear and Circular –Linear regression models as the data carries coordinate information and seasonality. Severity is mapped into integer brackets so that Probability Generation Function could be employed. Individual regressions are run on each clusters estimated on different criteria. Loss distribution is constructed by Panjer Recursion technique. We also show that one risk-one crop model can easily be extended to the multi risk–multi crop model by assuming conditional independency.

Keywords: hail insurance, spherical regression, circular regression, spherical clustering

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21056 Proposal of a Model Supporting Decision-Making on Information Security Risk Treatment

Authors: Ritsuko Kawasaki, Takeshi Hiromatsu

Abstract:

Management is required to understand all information security risks within an organization, and to make decisions on which information security risks should be treated in what level by allocating how much amount of cost. However, such decision-making is not usually easy, because various measures for risk treatment must be selected with the suitable application levels. In addition, some measures may have objectives conflicting with each other. It also makes the selection difficult. Therefore, this paper provides a model which supports the selection of measures by applying multi-objective analysis to find an optimal solution. Additionally, a list of measures is also provided to make the selection easier and more effective without any leakage of measures.

Keywords: information security risk treatment, selection of risk measures, risk acceptance, multi-objective optimization

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21055 Using the Structural Equation Model to Explain the Effect of Supervisory Practices on Regulatory Density

Authors: Jill Round

Abstract:

In the economic system, the financial sector plays a crucial role as an intermediary between market participants, other financial institutions, and customers. Financial institutions such as banks have to make decisions to satisfy the demands of all the participants by keeping abreast of regulatory change. In recent years, progress has been made regarding frameworks, development of rules, standards, and processes to manage risks in the banking sector. The increasing focus of regulators and policymakers placed on risk management, corporate governance, and the organization’s culture is of special interest as it requires a well-resourced risk controlling function, compliance function, and internal audit function. In the past years, the relevance of these functions that make up the so-called Three Lines of Defense has moved from the backroom to the boardroom. The approach of the model can vary based on the various organizational characteristics. Due to the intense regulatory requirements, organizations operating in the financial sector have more mature models. In less regulated industries there is more cloudiness about what tasks are allocated where. All parties strive to achieve their objectives through the effective management of risks and serve the identical stakeholders. Today, the Three Lines of Defense model is used throughout the world. The research looks at trends and emerging issues in the professions of the Three Lines of Defense within the banking sector. The answers are believed to helping to explain the increasing regulatory requirements for the banking sector. While the number of supervisory practices increases the risk management requirements intensify and demand more regulatory compliance at the same time. The Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) is applied by making use of conducted surveys in the research field. It aims to describe (i) the theoretical model regarding the applicable linearity relationships, (ii) the causal relationship between multiple predictors (exogenous) and multiple dependent variables (endogenous), (iii) taking into consideration the unobservable variables and (iv) the measurement errors. The surveys conducted on the research field suggest that the observable variables are caused by various latent variables. The SEM consists of the 1) measurement model and the 2) structural model. There is a detectable correlation regarding the cause-effect relationship among the performed supervisory practices and the increasing scope of regulation. Supervisory practices reinforce the regulatory density. In the past, controls were placed after supervisory practices were conducted or incidents occurred. In further research, it is of interest to examine, whether risk management is proactive, reactive to incidents and supervisory practices or can be both at the same time.

Keywords: risk management, structural equation model, supervisory practice, three lines of defense

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21054 Holistic Risk Assessment Based on Continuous Data from the User’s Behavior and Environment

Authors: Cinzia Carrodano, Dimitri Konstantas

Abstract:

Risk is part of our lives. In today’s society risk is connected to our safety and safety has become a major priority in our life. Each person lives his/her life based on the evaluation of the risk he/she is ready to accept and sustain, and the level of safety he/she wishes to reach, based on highly personal criteria. The assessment of risk a person takes in a complex environment and the impact of actions of other people’actions and events on our perception of risk are alements to be considered. The concept of Holistic Risk Assessment (HRA) aims in developing a methodology and a model that will allow us to take into account elements outside the direct influence of the individual, and provide a personalized risk assessment. The concept is based on the fact that in the near future, we will be able to gather and process extremely large amounts of data about an individual and his/her environment in real time. The interaction and correlation of these data is the key element of the holistic risk assessment. In this paper, we present the HRA concept and describe the most important elements and considerations.

Keywords: continuous data, dynamic risk, holistic risk assessment, risk concept

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21053 Risk Factors for Defective Autoparts Products Using Bayesian Method in Poisson Generalized Linear Mixed Model

Authors: Pitsanu Tongkhow, Pichet Jiraprasertwong

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This research investigates risk factors for defective products in autoparts factories. Under a Bayesian framework, a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) in which the dependent variable, the number of defective products, has a Poisson distribution is adopted. Its performance is compared with the Poisson GLM under a Bayesian framework. The factors considered are production process, machines, and workers. The products coded RT50 are observed. The study found that the Poisson GLMM is more appropriate than the Poisson GLM. For the production Process factor, the highest risk of producing defective products is Process 1, for the Machine factor, the highest risk is Machine 5, and for the Worker factor, the highest risk is Worker 6.

Keywords: defective autoparts products, Bayesian framework, generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), risk factors

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21052 Analyzing the Results of Buildings Energy Audit by Using Grey Set Theory

Authors: Tooraj Karimi, Mohammadreza Sadeghi Moghadam

Abstract:

Grey set theory has the advantage of using fewer data to analyze many factors, and it is therefore more appropriate for system study rather than traditional statistical regression which require massive data, normal distribution in the data and few variant factors. So, in this paper grey clustering and entropy of coefficient vector of grey evaluations are used to analyze energy consumption in buildings of the Oil Ministry in Tehran. In fact, this article intends to analyze the results of energy audit reports and defines most favorable characteristics of system, which is energy consumption of buildings, and most favorable factors affecting these characteristics in order to modify and improve them. According to the results of the model, ‘the real Building Load Coefficient’ has been selected as the most important system characteristic and ‘uncontrolled area of the building’ has been diagnosed as the most favorable factor which has the greatest effect on energy consumption of building. Grey clustering in this study has been used for two purposes: First, all the variables of building relate to energy audit cluster in two main groups of indicators and the number of variables is reduced. Second, grey clustering with variable weights has been used to classify all buildings in three categories named ‘no standard deviation’, ‘low standard deviation’ and ‘non- standard’. Entropy of coefficient vector of Grey evaluations is calculated to investigate greyness of results. It shows that among the 38 buildings surveyed in terms of energy consumption, 3 cases are in standard group, 24 cases are in ‘low standard deviation’ group and 11 buildings are completely non-standard. In addition, clustering greyness of 13 buildings is less than 0.5 and average uncertainly of clustering results is 66%.

Keywords: energy audit, grey set theory, grey incidence matrixes, grey clustering, Iran oil ministry

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21051 A Multilevel Approach for Stroke Prediction Combining Risk Factors and Retinal Images

Authors: Jeena R. S., Sukesh Kumar A.

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Stroke is one of the major reasons of adult disability and morbidity in many of the developing countries like India. Early diagnosis of stroke is essential for timely prevention and cure. Various conventional statistical methods and computational intelligent models have been developed for predicting the risk and outcome of stroke. This research work focuses on a multilevel approach for predicting the occurrence of stroke based on various risk factors and invasive techniques like retinal imaging. This risk prediction model can aid in clinical decision making and help patients to have an improved and reliable risk prediction.

Keywords: prediction, retinal imaging, risk factors, stroke

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21050 A Mathematical Optimization Model for Locating and Fortifying Capacitated Warehouses under Risk of Failure

Authors: Tareq Oshan

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Facility location and size decisions are important to any company because they affect profitability and success. However, warehouses are exposed to various risks of failure that affect their activity. This paper presents a mixed-integer non-linear mathematical model that can be used to determine optimal warehouse locations and sizes, which warehouses to fortify, and which branches should be assigned to specific warehouses when there is a risk of warehouse failure. Every branch is assigned to a fortified primary warehouse or a nonfortified primary warehouse and a fortified backup warehouse. The standard method and an introduced method, based on the average probabilities, for linearizing this mathematical model were used. A Canadian case study was used to demonstrate the developed mathematical model, followed by some sensitivity analysis.

Keywords: supply chain network design, fortified warehouse, mixed-integer mathematical model, warehouse failure risk

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21049 Monte Carlo Estimation of Heteroscedasticity and Periodicity Effects in a Panel Data Regression Model

Authors: Nureni O. Adeboye, Dawud A. Agunbiade

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This research attempts to investigate the effects of heteroscedasticity and periodicity in a Panel Data Regression Model (PDRM) by extending previous works on balanced panel data estimation within the context of fitting PDRM for Banks audit fee. The estimation of such model was achieved through the derivation of Joint Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for homoscedasticity and zero-serial correlation, a conditional LM test for zero serial correlation given heteroscedasticity of varying degrees as well as conditional LM test for homoscedasticity given first order positive serial correlation via a two-way error component model. Monte Carlo simulations were carried out for 81 different variations, of which its design assumed a uniform distribution under a linear heteroscedasticity function. Each of the variation was iterated 1000 times and the assessment of the three estimators considered are based on Variance, Absolute bias (ABIAS), Mean square error (MSE) and the Root Mean Square (RMSE) of parameters estimates. Eighteen different models at different specified conditions were fitted, and the best-fitted model is that of within estimator when heteroscedasticity is severe at either zero or positive serial correlation value. LM test results showed that the tests have good size and power as all the three tests are significant at 5% for the specified linear form of heteroscedasticity function which established the facts that Banks operations are severely heteroscedastic in nature with little or no periodicity effects.

Keywords: audit fee lagrange multiplier test, heteroscedasticity, lagrange multiplier test, Monte-Carlo scheme, periodicity

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21048 A Literature Review on Banks’ Profitability and Risk Adjustment Decisions

Authors: Libena Cernohorska, Barbora Sutorova, Petr Teply

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There are pending discussions over an impact of global regulatory efforts on banks. In this paper we present a literature review on the profitability-risk-capital relationship in banking. Research papers dealing with this topic can be divided into two groups: the first group focusing on a capital-risk relationship and the second group analyzing a capital-profitability relationship. The first group investigates whether the imposition of stricter capital requirements reduces risk-taking incentives of banks based on a simultaneous equations model. Their model pioneered the idea that the changes in both capital and risk have endogenous and exogenous components. The results obtained by the authors indicate that changes in the capital level are positively related to the changes in asset risk. The second group of the literature concentrating solely on the relationship between the level of held capital and bank profitability is limited. Nevertheless, there are a lot of studies dealing with the banks’ profitability as such, where bank capital is very often included as an explanatory variable. Based on the literature review of dozens of relevant papers in this study, an empirical research on banks’ profitability and risk adjustment decisions under new banking rules Basel III rules can be easily undertaken.

Keywords: bank, Basel III, capital, decision making, profitability, risk, simultaneous equations model

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21047 Risk Identification of Investment Feasibility in Indonesia’s Toll Road Infrastructure Investment

Authors: Christo Februanto Putra

Abstract:

This paper presents risk identification that affects investment feasibility on toll road infrastructure in Indonesia using qualitative methods survey based on the expert practitioner in investor, contractor, and state officials. The problems on infrastructure investment in Indonesia, especially on KPBU model contract, is many risk factors in the investment plan is not calculated in detail thoroughly. Risk factor is a value used to provide an overview of the risk level assessment of an event which is a function of the probability of the occurrence and the consequences of the risks that arise. As results of the survey which is to show which risk factors impacts directly to the investment feasibility and rank them by their impacts on the investment.

Keywords: risk identification, indonesia toll road, investment feasibility

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21046 Assessing the Quality of Clinical Photographs Taken for Orthodontic Patients at Queen’s Hospital, Romford

Authors: Maya Agarwala

Abstract:

Objectives: Audit the quality of clinical photographs taken for Orthodontic patients at Queen’s hospital, Romford. Design and setting: All Orthodontic photographs are taken in the Medical Photography Department at Queen’s Hospital. Retrospective audit with data collected between January - March 2023. Gold standard: Institute of Medical Illustrators (IMI) standard 12 photographs: 6 extraoral and 6 intraoral. 100% of patients to have the standard 12 photographs meeting a satisfactory diagnostic quality. Materials and methods: 30 patients randomly selected. All photographs analysed against the IMI gold standard. Results: A total of 360 photographs were analysed. 100% of the photographs had the 12 photographic views. Of which, 93.1% met the gold standard. Of the extraoral photos: 99.4% met the gold standard, 0.6% had incorrect head positioning. Of the intraoral photographs: 87.2% met the gold standard. The most common intraoral errors were: the presence of saliva pooling (7.2%), insufficient soft tissue retraction (3.3%), incomplete occlusal surface visibility (2.2%) and mirror fogging (1.1%). Conclusion: The gold standard was not met, however the overall standard of Orthodontic photographs is high. Further training of the Medical Photography team is needed to improve the quality of photographs. Following the training, the audit will be repeated. High-quality clinical photographs are an important part of clinical record keeping.

Keywords: orthodontics, paediatric, photography, audit

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