Search results for: Paul O'Brien

Authors: Lozano Paul

Abstract:

Coupled Membrane Separation Technology (CMST), including Cross Flow Microfiltration (CFM) and Reverse Osmosis (RO), are used to concentrate microalgae biomass or/and to extract and concentrate water-soluble metabolites produced during micro-algae production cycle, as well as water recycling. Micro-algae biomass was produced using different feeding mixtures of ingredients: pure chemical origin compounds and natural/ecological water-extracted components from available local plants. Micro-algae was grown either in conventional plastic bags (100L/unit) or in small-scale innovative bioreactors (75L). Biomass was concentrated as CFM retentate using a P19-60 ceramic membrane (0.2μm pore size), and water-soluble micro-algae metabolites left in the CFM filtrate were concentrated by RO. Large volumes of water (micro-algae culture media) of were recycled by the CMTS for another biomass production cycle.

Keywords: extraction, membrane process, microalgae, natural compound

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Authors: S. Maddi Muhammed, Paul Davis, John Geraghty, Mabruk Derbesh

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This study discusses the probability of using electronic management in higher education institutions in Libya. This could be as sampled by creating an electronic gate at the faculties of Engineering and Computing "Information Technology" at Zaytuna University or any other university in Libya. As we all know, the competitive advantage amongst universities is based on their ability to use information technology efficiently and broadly. Universities today value information technology as part of the quality control and assurance and a ranking criterion for a range of services including e-learning and e-Registration. This could be done by developing email systems, electronic or virtual libraries, electronic cards, and other services provided to all students, faculty or staff. This paper discusses a range of important topics that explain how to apply the gate "E" with the faculties at Zaytuna University, Bani Walid colleges in Libya.

Keywords: e-management, educational institutions (EI), Libya, Zaytuna, information technology

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Authors: Paul Okonkwo, Howard Smith

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A study to estimate the size of the cabin and major aircraft components as well as detect and avoid interference between internally placed components and the external surface, during the conceptual design synthesis and optimisation to explore the design space of a BWB, was conducted. Sizing of components follows the Bradley cabin sizing and rubber engine scaling procedures to size the cabin and engine respectively. The interference detection and avoidance algorithm relies on the ability of the Class Shape Transform parameterisation technique to generate polynomial functions of the surfaces of a BWB aircraft configuration from the sizes of the cabin and internal objects using few variables. Interference detection is essential in packaging of non-conventional configuration like the BWB because of the non-uniform airfoil-shaped sections and resultant varying internal space. The unique configuration increases the need for a methodology to prevent objects from being placed in locations that do not sufficiently enclose them within the geometry.

Keywords: packaging, optimisation, BWB, parameterisation, aircraft conceptual design

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Authors: Felix Damilola Ajibade, Opeyemi O. Enoch, Taiwo Paul Fajusigbe

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This paper is centered on conducting an inquiry into the stability of the F* iterative algorithm to the fixed point of a strongly pseudo-contractive mapping in the framework of uniformly convex Banach spaces. To achieve the desired result, certain existing inequalities in convex Banach spaces were utilized, as well as the stability criteria of Harder and Hicks. Other necessary conditions for the stability of the F* algorithm on strong pseudo-contractive mapping were also obtained. Through a numerical approach, we prove that the F* iterative algorithm is H-stable for strongly pseudo-contractive mapping. Finally, the solution of the mixed-type Volterra-Fredholm functional non-linear integral equation is estimated using our results.

Keywords: stability, F* -iterative algorithm, pseudo-contractive mappings, uniformly convex Banach space, mixed-type Volterra-Fredholm integral equation

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Authors: F. G Okibe, C. E Gimba, V. O Ajibola, I. G Ndukwe, E. D. Paul

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A full factorial experimental design technique at two levels and four factors (24) was used to optimize the adsorption at 615 nm of Xylene Cyanol ff in aqueous solutions onto activated carbon prepared from brachystegia eurycoma seed hulls by chemical carbonization method. The effect of pH (3 and 5), initial dye concentration (20 and 60 mg/l), adsorbent dosage (0.01 and 0.05 g), and contact time (30 and 60 min) on removal efficiency of the adsorbent for the dye were investigated at 298K. From the analysis of variance, response surface and cube plot, adsorbent dosage was observed to be the most significant factor affecting the adsorption process. However, from the interaction between the variables studied, the optimum removal efficiency was 96.80 % achieved with adsorbent dosage of 0.05 g, contact time 45 minutes, pH 3, and initial dye concentration 60 mg/l.

Keywords: factorial experimental design, adsorption, optimization, brachystegia eurycoma, xylene cyanol ff

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Authors: Stepan Grebeniuk, Ersi Hodo, Henri Ruotsalainen, Paul Tavolato

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Substation security plays an important role in the power delivery system. During the past years, there has been an increase in number of attacks on automation networks of the substations. In spite of that, there hasn’t been enough focus dedicated to the protection of such networks. Aiming to design a specialized anomaly detection system based on machine learning, in this paper we will discuss the IEC 60870-5-104 protocol that is used for communication between substation and control station and focus on the simulation of the substation traffic. Firstly, we will simulate the communication between substation slave and server. Secondly, we will compare the system's normal behavior and its behavior under the attack, in order to extract the right features which will be needed for building an anomaly detection system. Lastly, based on the features we will suggest the anomaly detection system for the asynchronous protocol IEC 60870-5-104.

Keywords: Anomaly detection, IEC-60870-5-104, Machine learning, Man-in-the-Middle attacks, Substation security

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Authors: Paul Henshall, Philip Eames, Roger Moss, Stan Shire, Farid Arya, Trevor Hyde

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Encapsulating the absorber of a flat plate solar thermal collector in vacuum by an enclosure that can be evacuated can result in a significant increase in collector performance and achievable operating temperatures. This is a result of the thermal insulation effectiveness of the vacuum layer surrounding the absorber, as less heat is lost during collector operation. This work describes experimental thermal insulation characterization tests of prototype vacuum flat plate solar thermal collectors that demonstrate the improvement in absorber heat loss coefficients. Furthermore, this work describes the selection and sizing of a getter, suitable for maintaining the vacuum inside the enclosure for the lifetime of the collector, which can be activated at low temperatures.

Keywords: vacuum, thermal, flat-plate solar collector, insulation

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Authors: Dilip K. Paul

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The most popular mesoporous molecular sieves, Mobil Composition of Matter (MCM) are keenly studied by researchers because of these materials possess amorphous silica wall and have a long range of ordered framework with uniform mesopores. These materials also possess large surface area, which can be up to more than 1000 m2g−1. Herein the investigation is focused upon the synthesis and characterization of chromium and aluminum doped MCM-41 using XRD and FTIR. Acid-base properties of Cr-Al-MCM 41 was investigated by molecularly sensitive transmission FT-IR spectroscopy by adsorbing pyridine. In addition, these MCM nanomaterial was used to catalyze C-C bond formation from acetaldehyde adsorption. The assignment of all infrared peaks during adsorption of pyridine provided detail information on the presence of acid-base sites which in turn helped us to explain the roles of these in the condensation reaction of aldehyde. Reaction mechanisms of C-C bond formation is therefore explored to shed some light on this elusive reaction detail.

Keywords: mesoporous nanomaterial, MCM 41, FTIR studies, acid-base studies

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Authors: Delio I. Castaneda, Paul Toulson

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The purpose of this study was to investigate the knowledge sharing effectiveness of two types of knowledge, tacit and explicit, depending on two channels: face to face or digital. Participants were 217 knowledge workers in New Zealand and researchers who attended a knowledge management conference in the United Kingdom. In the study, it was found that digital tools are effective to share explicit knowledge. In addition, digital tools that facilitated dialogue were effective to share tacit knowledge. It was also found that face to face communication was an effective way to share tacit and explicit knowledge. Results of this study contribute to clarify in what cases digital tools are effective to share tacit knowledge. Additionally, even though explicit knowledge can be easily shared using digital tools, this type of knowledge is also possible to be shared through dialogue. Result of this study may support practitioners to redesign programs and activities based on knowledge sharing to make strategies more effective.

Keywords: digital knowledge, explicit knowledge, knowledge sharing, tacit knowledge

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Authors: Olusegun Paul Adesanya, Oluwatomilade Olominu, Olusegun Idowu

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This study investigates new dangers that West African migrants travelling through the Sahara Desert to Europe contend with. COVID-19 has left an unprecedented impact on all aspects of global politics, migration inclusive. In turn, limitations to migration have drastically increased, especially the stricter visa application measures set by European countries. This intensified attempts at crisscrossing the desert to Europe. In turn, several migrants used the Sahara as the highway to Europe. While some persons successfully travelled through the desert-scape, several others were unsuccessful. Notwithstanding the negative experiences of previous migrants, several other nationals across the region have plans to travel through the desert to Europe. As such, this study employs a mixed method of research reliant on qualitative and quantitative methods of data gathering and analysis. The study holds that there are new dangers to the aspirations of West Africans travelling to Europe through the Sahara and the Mediterranean Sea.

Keywords: migrants, Sahara Desert, West Africa, crisscrossing, dangers, irregular migration

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Authors: Alsu F. Saifitdinova, Alexey S. Komissarov, Svetlana A. Galkina, Elena I. Koshel, Maria M. Kulak, Stephen J. O'Brien, Elena R. Gaginskaya

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The mystery of sex determination is one of the most ancient and still not solved until the end so far. In many species, sex determination is genetic and often accompanied by the presence of dimorphic sex chromosomes in the karyotype. Genomic sequencing gave the information about the gene content of sex chromosomes which allowed to reveal their origin from ordinary autosomes and to trace their evolutionary history. Female-specific W chromosome in birds as well as mammalian male-specific Y chromosome is characterized by the degeneration of gene content and the accumulation of repetitive DNA. Tandem repeats complicate the analysis of genomic data. Despite the best efforts chicken W chromosome assembly includes only 1.2 Mb from expected 55 Mb. Supplementing the information on the sex chromosome composition not only helps to complete the assembly of genomes but also moves us in the direction of understanding of the sex-determination systems evolution. A whole-genome survey to the assembly Gallus_gallus WASHUC 2.60 was applied for repeats search in assembled genome and performed search and assembly of high copy number repeats in unassembled reads of SRR867748 short reads datasets. For cytogenetic analysis conventional methods of fluorescent in situ hybridization was used for previously cloned W specific satellites and specifically designed directly labeled synthetic oligonucleotide DNA probe was used for bioinformatically identified repetitive sequence. Hybridization was performed with mitotic chicken chromosomes and manually isolated giant meiotic lampbrush chromosomes from growing oocytes. A novel chicken W specific satellite (GGAAA)n which is not co-localizes with any previously described classes of W specific repeats was identified and mapped with high resolution. In the composition of autosomes this repeat units was found as a part of upstream regions of gonad specific protein coding sequences. These findings may contribute to the understanding of the role of tandem repeats in sex specific differentiation regulation in birds and sex chromosome evolution. This work was supported by the postdoctoral fellowships from St. Petersburg State University (#1.50.1623.2013 and #1.50.1043.2014), the grant for Leading Scientific Schools (#3553.2014.4) and the grant from Russian foundation for basic researches (#15-04-05684). The equipment and software of Research Resource Center “Chromas” and Theodosius Dobzhansky Center for Genome Bioinformatics of Saint Petersburg State University were used.

Keywords: birds, lampbrush chromosomes, sex chromosomes, tandem repeats

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Authors: Paul Bigala, Samuel Oladipo, Steven Adebowale

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This study examines factors influencing knowledge of HIV/AIDS Prevention Practices and Transmission (KHAPPT) among young undergraduate students (15-24 years). Knowledge composite index was computed for 820 randomly selected students. Chi-square, ANOVA, and multinomial logistic regression were used for the analyses (α=.05). The overall mean knowledge score was 16.5±3.4 out of a possible score of 28. About 83% of the students have undergone HIV test, 21.0% have high KHAPPT, 18% said there is cure for the disease, 23% believed that asking for condom is embarrassing and 11.7% said it is safe to share unsterilized sharp objects with friends or family members. The likelihood of high KHAPPT was higher among students who have had HIV test (OR=3.314; C.I=1.787-6.145, p<0.001) even when other variables were used as control. The identified predictors of high KHAPPT were; ever had HIV test, faculty, and ever used any HIV/AIDS prevention services. North-West University Mafikeng should intensify efforts on the HIV/AIDS awareness program on the campus.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS knowledge, undergraduate students, HIV testing, Mafikeng

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Authors: Luisa Unda, Kamran Ahmed, Paul Mather

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We examine the effect of board characteristics on the performance and asset quality of credit unions in Australia, using a large sample covering the period 2004-2012. Credit unions are unique in that they are customer-owned financial institutions and directors are democratically elected by members, which is distinctly different from other financial institutions, such as commercial banks. We find that board remuneration, board expertise, and attendance at board meetings have significantly positive impacts on credit union performance and asset quality, while board members who hold multiple directorships (busy directors), have a significant negative impact on credit union performance. Financial performance also improves with larger boards and long-tenured directors in credit unions. All of these relations hold after we control for alternative measures of performance, credit union characteristics and endogeneity problem.

Keywords: credit unions, corporate governance, board of directors, financial performance, Australia, asset quality

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Authors: Devender Mandala, Paul Watts

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Cis-Nucleosides mainly lamivudine (3TC) and emtricitabine (FTC) are an important tool in the treatment of Human immune deficiency virus (HIV), Hepatitis B virus (HBV) and Human T-Lymotropoic virus (HTLV). Lamivudine and emtricitabine are potent nucleoside analog reverse transcriptase inhibitors (nRTI). These two drugs are synthesized by a four-stage process from the starting materials: menthyl glyoxylate hydrate and 1,4-dithane-2,5-diol to produce the 5-hydroxy oxathiolane which upon acetylation with acetic anhydride to yield 5-acetoxy oxathiolane. Then glycosylation of this acetyl product with silyl protected nucleoside to produce the intermediate. The reduction of this intermediates can provide the final targets. Although there are several different methods reported for the synthesis of lamivudine and emtricitabine as a single enantiomer, we required an efficient route, which was suitable for large-scale synthesis to support the development of these compounds. In this process, we successfully prepared the intermediates of lamivudine and emtricitabine without using any solvents and catalyst, thus promoting the green synthesis. All the synthesized compound were confirmed by TLC, GC, Mass, NMR and 13C NMR spectroscopy.

Keywords: emtricitabine, green synthesis, lamivudine, nucleoside

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Authors: Brenden M. Shutt, Lubjana Beshaj, Paul L. Goethals, Ambrose Kam

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Communication security is of particular interest to military data networks. A relatively novel approach to network security is blockchain, a cryptographically secured distribution ledger with a decentralized consensus mechanism for data transaction processing. Recent advances in blockchain technology have proposed new techniques for both data validation and trust management, as well as different frameworks for managing dataflow. The purpose of this work is to test the feasibility of different blockchain architectures as applied to military command and control networks. Various architectures are tested through discrete-event simulation and the feasibility is determined based upon a blockchain design’s ability to maintain long-term stable performance at industry standards of throughput, network latency, and security. This work proposes a consortium blockchain architecture with a computationally inexpensive consensus mechanism, one that leverages a Proof-of-Identity (PoI) concept and a reputation management mechanism.

Keywords: blockchain, consensus mechanism, discrete-event simulation, fog computing

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Authors: Analise Borg, Paul Micallef

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Over the past few years, the online multimedia collection has grown at a fast pace. Several companies showed interest to study the different ways to organize the amount of audio information without the need of human intervention to generate metadata. In the past few years, many applications have emerged on the market which are capable of identifying a piece of music in a short time. Different audio effects and degradation make it much harder to identify the unknown piece. In this paper, an audio fingerprinting system which makes use of a non-parametric based algorithm is presented. Parametric analysis is also performed using Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs). The feature extraction methods employed are the Mel Spectrum Coefficients and the MPEG-7 basic descriptors. Bin numbers replaced the extracted feature coefficients during the non-parametric modelling. The results show that non-parametric analysis offer potential results as the ones mentioned in the literature.

Keywords: audio fingerprinting, mapping algorithm, Gaussian Mixture Models, MFCC, MPEG-7

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Authors: Mayuri Roy Choudhury, Deepti Paul

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Many states in the United States are aiming for high renewable energy targets by the year 2045. In order to achieve this goal, they must do transition to Electrical Vehicles (EVS). We first applied the Multi-Level perspective framework to describe the inter-disciplinary complexities associated with the transition to EVs. Thereafter we addressed these complexities by creating an inter-disciplinary policy framework that uses data science algorithms to create evidence-based policies in favor of EVs. Our policy framework uses a systems level approach as it addresses transitions to EVs from a technology, economic, business and social perspective. By Systems-Level we mean approaching a problem from a multi-disciplinary perspective. Our systems-level approach could be a beneficial decision-making tool to a diverse number of stakeholders such as engineers, entrepreneurs, researchers, and policymakers. In addition, it will add value to the literature of electrical vehicles, sustainable energy, energy economics, and management as well as efficient policymaking.

Keywords: transition, electrical vehicles, systems-level, algorithms

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Authors: Nkiru I. Ibeakuzie, Paul D. J. Watson, John F. Pescatore

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In roadway construction, the cost of soil-cement stabilization per unit area is significantly influenced by the binder content, hence the need to optimise cement usage. This research work will characterize the influence of soil fractal geometry on properties of cement-stabilized soil, and strive to determine a correlation between mechanical proprieties of cement-stabilized soil and the mass fractal dimension Dₘ indicated by particle size distribution (PSD) of aggregate mixtures. Since strength development in cemented soil relies not only on cement content but also on soil PSD, this study will investigate the possibility of reducing cement content by changing the PSD of soil, without compromising on strength, reduced permeability, and compressibility. A series of soil aggregate mixes will be prepared in the laboratory. The mass fractal dimension Dₘ of each mix will be determined from sieve analysis data prior to stabilization with cement. Stabilized soil samples will be tested for strength, permeability, and compressibility.

Keywords: fractal dimension, particle size distribution, cement stabilization, cement content

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Authors: Rami Al Jafar, Paul Elliott, Konstantinos K. Tsilidis, Abbas Dehghan

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Although Ramadan fasting is a ritual that is practiced every year by millions of Muslims, studies on Ramadan fasting are still scarce. To the best of our knowledge, none of the previous studies comprehensively explored the effect on the metabolic profile. In London Ramadan Fasting Study, blood samples were collected from 81 participants before and 10-14 days after Ramadan. Blood samples were analysed using nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy which covers 249 metabolites. Mixed-effects models were used to analyse collected data and assess the effect of Ramadan fasting on the metabolic profile. Our observational study involved 85 individuals with a mean age of 45.2 years, and 53.1% of them were males. After Ramadan, forty metabolites were affected significantly by Ramadan fasting. Most of these metabolites were metabolites ratios (24), and the rest were three Glycolysis, three ketone bodies, nine Lipoprotein subclasses and one inflammation marker. This study suggests that Ramadan fasting is significantly associated with changes in the metabolic profile. However, the changes are assumed to be temporary, and the long-term effect of these changes is unknown.

Keywords: metabolic profile, Ramadan fasting, metabolites, intermittent fasting

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Authors: Paul Nadasdy

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In 2020, oral communication classes at many universities in Japan switched to online and hybrid lessons because of the coronavirus pandemic. Teachers had to adapt their practices immediately and deal with the challenges of the online environment. Even for experienced teachers, this still presented a problem as many had not conducted online classes before. Simultaneously, for many students, this type of learning was completely alien to them, and they had to adapt to the challenges faced by communicating in English online. This study collected data from 418 first grade students in the first semester of English communication classes at a technical university in Tokyo, Japan. Zoom software was used throughout the learning period. Though there were many challenges in the setting up and implementation of Zoom classes at the university, the results indicated that the students enjoyed the format and made the most of the circumstances. This proved the robustness of the course that was taught in regular lessons and the adaptability of teachers and students to challenges in a very short timeframe.

Keywords: zoom, hybrid lessons, communicative english, online teaching

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Authors: Khaled Ibrahim, Mathew Parackal, Damien Mather, Paul Hansen

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The integration between marketing and technology has given brands unprecedented opportunities to reach accurate customer data and competence to change customers' behaviour. Technology has generated a transformation within brands from traditional branding to algorithmic branding. However, brands have utilised customer data in non-cognitive programmatic targeting. This algorithmic persuasion may be effective in reaching the targeted audience. But it may encounter a moral conflict simultaneously, as it might not consider our social principles. Moral branding is a critical topic; particularly, with the increasing interest in commercial settings to teaching machines human morals, e.g., autonomous vehicles and chatbots; however, it is understudied in the marketing literature. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate the recent moral branding literature. Furthermore, applying human-like mind theory as initial framing to this paper explores a more comprehensive concept involving human morals, machine behaviour, and branding.

Keywords: brand machines, conceptual framework, moral branding, moral machines

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Authors: Paul Onyegbule, Harjit Singh

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Vacuum glazing is an innovative transparent thermal insulator that has application in high performance window, especially in renewable energy. Different materials as well as sealing methods have been adopted to seal windows with different temperatures. The impact of temperatures on sealing layers has been found to have significant effects on the microstructure of the seal. This paper seeks to investigate the effects of sealing materials specifically glass powder and flux compound (borax) for vacuum glazing. The findings of the experiment conducted show that the sealing material was rigid with some leakage around the edge, and we found that this could be stopped by enhancing the uniformity of the seal within the periphery. Also, we found that due to the intense tensile stress from the oven surface temperature of the seal at 200 ⁰C, a crack was observed at the side of the glass. Based on the above findings, this study concludes that a glass powder with a lower melting temperature of below 250 ⁰C with the addition of an adhesive (borax flux) should be used for future vacuum seals.

Keywords: double glazed windows, U-value, heat loss, borax powder, edge seal

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Authors: Paul Anyaogu, E. U. M. Igbo

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This study examines the public view on child street hawking in Aba Urban, Abia State, Nigeria, its causes and effect on the child participant and society at large. The study tends to investigate the influence of socioeconomic status on child street hawking. The current situation reflects a chronic urban poverty, which disposed of parents/guardians to send their children and wards of school age to income yielding activities. A social survey research design was employed to select the respondents. A total of 1,108 questionnaires were administered to the respondents of 18 years and above and 1,038 were retrieved. Also, 24 in-depth interviews were conducted in the study area. The findings revealed that child street hawking is on the increase and a serious threat to social cohesion and national security. The study also revealed that poverty is a major cause of child street hawking. The study recommends that government should create job opportunities for urban dwellers, as well as provide social amenities and also put up poverty alleviation/eradication programmes for the people.

Keywords: Aba Urban, child street hawking, dangers, disposition, poverty

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Authors: Thinh Ngo, Paul Rad, Brian Kelley

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Noise estimation is essential in today wireless systems for power control, adaptive modulation, interference suppression and quality of service. Deep learning (DL) has already been applied in the physical layer for modulation and signal classifications. Unacceptably low accuracy of less than 50% is found to undermine traditional application of DL classification for SNR prediction. In this paper, we use divide-and-conquer algorithm and classifier fusion method to simplify SNR classification and therefore enhances DL learning and prediction. Specifically, multiple CNNs are used for classification rather than a single CNN. Each CNN performs a binary classification of a single SNR with two labels: less than, greater than or equal. Together, multiple CNNs are combined to effectively classify over a range of SNR values from −20 ≤ SNR ≤ 32 dB.We use pre-trained CNNs to predict SNR over a wide range of joint channel parameters including multiple Doppler shifts (0, 60, 120 Hz), power-delay profiles, and signal-modulation types (QPSK,16QAM,64-QAM). The approach achieves individual SNR prediction accuracy of 92%, composite accuracy of 70% and prediction convergence one order of magnitude faster than that of traditional estimation.

Keywords: classification, CNN, deep learning, prediction, SNR

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Authors: Shoeb A. Adeel, Shashant Anand, Vivek Paul, Dinesh, Suraj, Roshan

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The paper presents a study of micro air vehicles (MAVs) with wingspans of 20 Cm with two different airfoil configurations. MAVs have vast potential applications in both military and civilian areas. These MAVs are fully autonomous and supply real-time data. The paper focuses on two different designs of the MAVs one being N22 airfoil and the other a flat plate with similar dimension. As designed, the MAV would fly in a low Reynolds-number regime at airspeeds of 15 & 20 m/sec. Propulsion would be provided by an electric motor with an advanced lithium. Because of the close coupling between vehicle elements, system integration would be a significant challenge, requiring tight packaging and multifunction components to meet mass limitations and Centre of Gravity (C.G) balancing. These MAVs are feasible and within a couple of years of technology development in key areas including sensors, propulsion, Aerodynamics, and packaging these would be easily available to the users at affordable prices. The paper finally compares the flight performance of the two configurations.

Keywords: airfoil, CFD, MAV, flight performance, endurance, climb, lift, drag

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Authors: Ichihan Tai, Bill Olson, Paul Blessner

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Traditional early warning systems that alarm against crisis are generally based on structured or numerical data; therefore, a system that can make predictions based on unstructured textual data, an uncorrelated data source, is a great complement to the traditional early warning systems. The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX), commonly referred to as the fear index, measures the cost of insurance against market crash, and spikes in the event of crisis. In this study, news data is consumed for prediction of whether there will be a market-wide crisis by predicting the movement of the fear index, and the historical references to similar events are presented in an unsupervised manner. Topic modeling-based prediction and representation are made based on daily news data between 1990 and 2015 from The Wall Street Journal against VIX index data from CBOE.

Keywords: early warning system, knowledge management, market prediction, topic modeling.

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Authors: Paul Gurr, Maik Moser

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In Europe, some countries recently abolished air passenger taxes (APT), while others issued or consider issuing an APT. From a fiscal perspective, APT can benefit the environment, while generating a vast amount of tax revenue with relatively low administration costs. However, they may have significant negative effects on the economy. Focusing on the German air passenger tax issued 2011, this work estimates the elasticity of tourism outflows using data on passenger departures from German airports between 2010 and 2016 aggregated by destination country. The results are obtained by estimating a model of the demand for outbound tourism. In line with theory, the regression results indicate a negative relationship between taxes and departures from Germany. Furthermore, on average, an increase of the air passenger tax rate results in a relatively higher decrease of passenger departures. The elasticity of tourism outflows can be used to estimate tax revenue changes and hence evaluate possible policy actions. Neglecting environmental reasons, the results suggest that tax revenue might be maximized by reducing the air passenger tax rate. Besides Germany, this work is also important for countries which have or consider implementing APT.

Keywords: air passenger tax, Germany, Outbound tourism, panel data

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Authors: Marzie Shahini, Alireza Bagheri Sabbagh, Rasoul Mirghaderi, Paul C. Davidson

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The focus of this paper is to incorporating the slotted bolted connection into the cold-formed steel (CFS) beams with aim of increasing inelastic bending capacity through bolt slip. An extensive finite element analysis was conducted on the through plate CFS bolted connections which are equipped with the slotted hole. The studied parameters in this paper included the following: CFS beam section geometry, the value of slip force, CFS beam thickness. The numerical results indicate that CFS slotted bolted connection exhibit higher inelastic capacity in terms of ductility compare to connection with standards holes. Moreover, the effect of slip force was analysed by comparing the moment-rotation curves of different models with different slip force value. As a result, as the slip force became lower, there was a tendency for the plastic strain to extend from the CFS member to the connection region.

Keywords: slip-critical bolted connection, inelastic capacity, slotted holes, cold-formed steel, bolt slippage, slip force

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Authors: Paul Idoko Ukanu, Sunday Abba, Balogun Sadiya

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The study of the finger prints patterns among the Igala ethnic groups was done in order to see their association gender. A cross sectional study was conducted and a total of 602 subjects participated in this study, 322 females and 280 males, which were mainly secondary school students between the age ranges of 13-19 years. The subjects fingerprint pattern was obtained by allowing them place the tip of each finger on the stamp pad, which is then imprinted on the questionnaire, this was done for both the left and right hand. Female had higher arch, whorl and loop finger print pattern in most of the right fingers than the males, the differences were statistically significant for the right index, right ring finger and right little finger, but were statistically insignificant for right thumb and right middle finger as p = 0.207 and 0.726, respectively. The result also revealed that males had higher arch finger print pattern in the right index and right little finger than the females, which was statistically significant (p = 0.001), and also a high whorl finger print pattern than the females in the right middle and ring finger.

Keywords: arch, loop, whorl, fingers

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Authors: Gubhinder Kundhi, Paul Rilstone

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Refined procedures for higher-order asymptotic theory for non-linear models are developed. These include a new method for deriving stochastic expansions of arbitrary order, new methods for evaluating the moments of polynomials of sample averages, a new method for deriving the approximate moments of the stochastic expansions; an application of these techniques to gather improved inferences with the weak instruments problem is considered. It is well established that Instrumental Variable (IV) estimators in the presence of weak instruments can be poorly behaved, in particular, be quite biased in finite samples. In our application, finite sample approximations to the distributions of these estimators are obtained using Edgeworth and Saddlepoint expansions. Departures from normality of the distributions of these estimators are analyzed using higher order analytical corrections in these expansions. In a Monte-Carlo experiment, the performance of these expansions is compared to the first order approximation and other methods commonly used in finite samples such as the bootstrap.

Keywords: edgeworth expansions, higher order asymptotics, saddlepoint expansions, weak instruments

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