Search results for: supply chain delivery models

Authors: Zina Benouaret, Djamil Aissani

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In this work, we introduce the qualitative and quantitative concept of the strong stability method in the risk process modeling two lines of business of the same insurance company or an insurance and re-insurance companies that divide between them both claims and premiums with a certain proportion. The approach proposed is based on the identification of the ruin probability associate to the model considered, with a stationary distribution of a Markov random process called a reversed process. Our objective, after clarifying the condition and the perturbation domain of parameters, is to obtain the stability inequality of the ruin probability which is applied to estimate the approximation error of a model with disturbance parameters by the considered model. In the stability bound obtained, all constants are explicitly written.

Keywords: Markov chain, risk models, ruin probabilities, strong stability analysis

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Authors: Seid Yimer Abate, Ding-Chi Huang, Yu-Tai Tao

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In this study, charge extraction characteristics at the perovskite/TiO2 interface in the conventional perovskite solar cell is studied by interface engineering. Self-assembled monolayers of phosphonic acids with different chain length and terminal functional group were used to modify mesoporous TiO2 surface to modulate the surface property and interfacial energy barrier to investigate their effect on charge extraction and transport from the perovskite to the mp-TiO2 and then the electrode. The chain length introduces a tunnelling distance and the end group modulate the energy level alignment at the mp-TiO2 and perovskite interface. The work function of these SAM-modified mp-TiO2 varied from −3.89 eV to −4.61 eV, with that of the pristine mp-TiO2 at −4.19 eV. A correlation of charge extraction and transport with respect to the modification was attempted. The study serves as a guide to engineer ETL interfaces with simple SAMs to improve the charge extraction, carrier balance and device long term stability. In this study, a maximum PCE of ~16.09% with insignificant hysteresis was obtained, which is 17% higher than the standard device.

Keywords: Energy level alignment, Interface engineering, Perovskite solar cells, Phosphonic acid monolayer, Tunnelling distance

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Authors: Yannick Verbelen, Sam De Winne, Niek Blondeel, Ann Peeters, An Braeken, Abdellah Touhafi

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The growing popularity of solid state thermoelectric devices in cooling applications has sparked an increasing diversity of thermoelectric coolers (TECs) on the market, commonly known as “Peltier modules”. They can also be used as generators, converting a temperature difference into electric power, and opportunities are plentiful to make use of these devices as thermoelectric generators (TEGs) to supply energy to low power, autonomous embedded electronic applications. Their adoption as energy harvesters in this new domain of usage is obstructed by the complex thermoelectric models commonly associated with TEGs. Low cost TECs for the consumer market lack the required parameters to use the models because they are not intended for this mode of operation, thereby urging an alternative method to obtain electric power estimations in specific operating conditions. The design of the test setup implemented in this paper is specifically targeted at benchmarking commercial, off-the-shelf TECs for use as energy harvesters in domestic environments: applications with limited temperature differences and space available. The usefulness is demonstrated by testing and comparing single and multi stage TECs with different sizes. The effect of a boost converter stage on the thermoelectric end-to-end efficiency is also discussed.

Keywords: thermoelectric cooler, TEC, complementary balanced energy harvesting, step-up converter, DC/DC converter, energy harvesting, thermal harvesting

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Authors: Emilienne Lardy, Eric Ballot, Mariam Lafkihi

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Efficient urban logistics requires a comprehensive understanding of traffic dynamics, particularly as it pertains to kinetic parameters influencing energy consumption and trip duration estimations. While real-time traffic information is increasingly accessible, current high-precision forecasting services embedded in route planning often function as opaque 'black boxes' for users. These services, typically relying on AI-processed counting data, fall short in accommodating open design parameters essential for management studies, notably within Supply Chain Management. This work revisits the modelling of traffic conditions in the context of city logistics, emphasizing its significance from the user’s point of view, with two focuses. Firstly, the focus is not on the vehicle flow but on the vehicles themselves and the impact of the traffic conditions on their driving behaviour. This means opening the range of studied indicators beyond vehicle speed, to describe extensively the kinetic and dynamic aspects of the driving behaviour. To achieve this, we leverage the Art. Kinema parameters are designed to characterize driving cycles. Secondly, this study examines how the driving context (i.e., exogenous factors to the traffic flow) determines the mentioned driving behaviour. Specifically, we explore how accurately the kinetic behaviour of a vehicle can be predicted based on a limited set of exogenous factors, such as time, day, road type, orientation, slope, and weather conditions. To answer this question, statistical analysis was conducted on real-world driving data, which includes high-frequency measurements of vehicle speed. A Factor Analysis and a Generalized Linear Model have been established to link kinetic parameters with independent categorical contextual variables. The results include an assessment of the adjustment quality and the robustness of the models, as well as an overview of the model’s outputs.

Keywords: factor analysis, generalised linear model, real world driving data, traffic congestion, urban logistics, vehicle kinematics

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Authors: Oluwatosin Samuel Adeoye

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Ekiti State is an agrarian state located in south western part of Nigeria. The injected power to the Ado-Ekiti and the entire state are 25MW and 37.6 MW respectively. The estimated power demand for Ado Ekiti and Ekiti state were 29.01MW and 224.116MW respectively. The distributed power to the consumers is characterized with shortcomings which include: in-adequate supply, poor voltage regulation, improper usage, illiteracy and wastage. The power generation in Nigeria is presently 1680.60MW which does not match the estimated power demand of 15,000MW with a population of over 170 million citizens. This paper evaluates the energy utilization in Ado Ekiti metropolis, the wastage and its economic implication as well as effective means of its management. The use of direct interviews, administration of questionnaires, measurements of current and voltage with clamp multimeter, and simple mathematical approach were used for the purpose of evaluation. Recommendations were made with the view of reducing energy waste from mean value of 10.84% to 2% in order to reduce the cost implication such that the huge financial waste can be injected to other parts of the economy as well as the management of energy in Ekiti state.

Keywords: consumers, demand, energy, management, power supply, waste

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Authors: Indira K., Valsamma Joseph, I. S. Bright

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Introduction :Biofuels could replace fossil fuels and reduce our carbon footprint on the planet by technological advancements needed for sustainable and economic fuel production. Micro algae have proven to be a promising source to meet the current energy demand because of high lipid content and production of high biomass rapidly. Marine diatoms, which are key contributors in the biofuel sector and also play a significant role in primary productivity and ecology with high biodiversity and genetic and chemical diversity, are less well understood than other microalgae for producing hydrocarbons. Method :The marine diatom samples selected for hydrocarbon analysis were a total of eleven, out of which 9 samples were from the culture collection of NCAAH, and the remaining two of them were isolated by serial dilution method to get a pure culture from a mixed culture of microalgae obtained from the various cruise stations (350&357) FORV Sagar Sampada along the west coast of India. These diatoms were mass cultured in F/2 media, and the biomass harvested. The crude extract was obtained from the biomass by homogenising with n-hexane, and the hydrocarbons was further obtained by passing the crude extract through 500mg Bonna Agela SPE column and the quantitative analysis was done by GCHRMS analysis using HP-5 column and Helium gas was used as a carrier gas(1ml/min). The injector port temperature was 2400C, the detector temperature was 2500C, and the oven was initially kept at 600C for 1 minute and increased to 2200C at the rate of 60C per minute, and the analysis of a mixture of long chain hydrocarbons was done .Results:In the qualitative analysis done, the most potent hydrocarbon was found to be Psammodictyon Panduriforme (NCAAH-9) with a hydrocarbon mass of 37.27mg/g of the biomass and 2.1% of the total biomass 0f 1.395g and the other potent producer is Biddulphia(NCAAH 6) with hydrocarbon mass of 25.4mg/g of biomass and percentage of hydrocarbon is 1.03%. In the quantitative analysis by GCHRMS, the long chain hydrocarbons found in most of the marine diatoms were undecane, hexadecane, octadecane 3ethyl 5,2 ethyl butyl, Eicosane7hexyl, hexacosane, heptacosane, heneicosane, octadecane 3 methyl, triacontane. The exact mass of the long chain hydrocarbons in all the marine diatom samples was found to be Nonadecane 12C191H40, Tritriacontane,13-decyl-13-heptyl 12C501H102, Octadecane,3ethyl-5-(2-ethylbutyl 12C261H54, tetratetracontane 12C441H89, Eicosane, 7-hexyl 12C261H54. Conclusion:All the marine diatoms screened produced long chain hydrocarbons which can be used as diesel fuel with good cetane value example, hexadecane, undecane. All the long chain hydrocarbons can further undergo catalytic cracking to produce short chain alkanes which can give good octane values and can be used as gasoline. Optimisation of hydrocarbon production with the most potent marine diatom yielded long chain hydrocarbons of good fuel quality.

Keywords: biofuel, hydrocarbons, marine diatoms, screening

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Authors: Nurudeen Oluwasola Lasisi, Abdulkareem Afolabi Ibrahim

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Newcastle disease is an infection of domestic poultry and other bird species with virulent Newcastle disease virus (NDV). In this paper, we study the dynamics of modeling the Newcastle disease virus (NDV) using a novel quarantine-adjusted incidence. We do a comparison of Vaccination, linear incident rate, and novel quarantine adjusted incident rate in the models. The dynamics of the models yield disease free and endemic equilibrium states. The effective reproduction numbers of the models are computed in order to measure the relative impact for the individual bird or combined intervention for effective disease control. We showed the local and global stability of endemic equilibrium states of the models, and we found that stability of endemic equilibrium states of models are globally asymptotically stable if the effective reproduction numbers of the models equations are greater than a unit.

Keywords: effective reproduction number, endemic state, mathematical model, Newcastle disease virus, novel quarantine-adjusted incidence, stability analysis

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Authors: Ahmed El-Banbi

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Several PVT models exist to represent how PVT properties are handled in sub-surface and surface engineering calculations for oil and gas production. The most commonly used models include black oil, modified black oil (MBO), and compositional models. These models are used in calculations that allow engineers to optimize and forecast well and reservoir performance (e.g., reservoir simulation calculations, material balance, nodal analysis, surface facilities, etc.). The choice of which model is dependent on fluid type and the production process (e.g., depletion, water injection, gas injection, etc.). Based on close to 2,000 reservoir fluid samples collected from different basins and locations, this paper presents some conclusions on the occurrence of reservoir fluids. It also reviews the common methods used to classify reservoir fluid types. Based on new criteria related to the production behavior of different fluids and economic considerations, an updated classification of reservoir fluid types is presented in the paper. Recommendations on the use of different PVT models to simulate the behavior of different reservoir fluid types are discussed. Each PVT model requirement is highlighted. Available methods for the calculation of PVT properties from each model are also discussed. Practical recommendations and tips on how to control the calculations to achieve the most accurate results are given.

Keywords: PVT models, fluid types, PVT properties, fluids classification

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Authors: Meng-Fei Cheng, Wei-Lun Chen, Han-Chang Ma, Chi-Che Tsai

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Recent K–12 Taiwan Science Education Curriculum Guideline emphasize the essential role of modeling curriculum in science learning; however, few modeling curricula have been designed and adopted in current science teaching. Therefore, this study aims to develop modeling curriculum on electric circuits to investigate any learning difficulties students have with modeling curriculum and further enhance modeling teaching. This study was conducted with 44 10th-grade students in Central Taiwan. Data collection included a students’ understanding of models in science (SUMS) survey that explored the students' epistemology of scientific models and modeling and a complex circuit problem to investigate the students’ modeling abilities. Data analysis included the following: (1) Paired sample t-tests were used to examine the improvement of students’ modeling abilities and conceptual understanding before and after the curriculum was taught. (2) Paired sample t-tests were also utilized to determine the students’ modeling abilities before and after the modeling activities, and a Pearson correlation was used to understand the relationship between students’ modeling abilities during the activities and on the posttest. (3) ANOVA analysis was used during different stages of the modeling curriculum to investigate the differences between the students’ who developed microscopic models and macroscopic models after the modeling curriculum was taught. (4) Independent sample t-tests were employed to determine whether the students who changed their models had significantly different understandings of scientific models than the students who did not change their models. The results revealed the following: (1) After the modeling curriculum was taught, the students had made significant progress in both their understanding of the science concept and their modeling abilities. In terms of science concepts, this modeling curriculum helped the students overcome the misconception that electric currents reduce after flowing through light bulbs. In terms of modeling abilities, this modeling curriculum helped students employ macroscopic or microscopic models to explain their observed phenomena. (2) Encouraging the students to explain scientific phenomena in different context prompts during the modeling process allowed them to convert their models to microscopic models, but it did not help them continuously employ microscopic models throughout the whole curriculum. The students finally consistently employed microscopic models when they had help visualizing the microscopic models. (3) During the modeling process, the students who revised their own models better understood that models can be changed than the students who did not revise their own models. Also, the students who revised their models to explain different scientific phenomena tended to regard models as explanatory tools. In short, this study explored different strategies to facilitate students’ modeling processes as well as their difficulties with the modeling process. The findings can be used to design and teach modeling curricula and help students enhance their modeling abilities.

Keywords: electric circuits, modeling curriculum, science learning, scientific model

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Authors: R. Hellmuth

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The method of factory planning has changed a lot, especially when it is about planning the factory building itself. Factory planning has the task of designing products, plants, processes, organization, areas, and the building of a factory. Regular restructuring is becoming more important in order to maintain the competitiveness of a factory. Restrictions in new areas, shorter life cycles of product and production technology as well as a VUCA world (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity) lead to more frequent restructuring measures within a factory. A digital factory model is the planning basis for rebuilding measures and becomes an indispensable tool. Furthermore, digital building models are increasingly being used in factories to support facility management and manufacturing processes. The main research question of this paper is, therefore: What kind of digital factory model is suitable for the different areas of application during the operation of a factory? First, different types of digital factory models are investigated, and their properties and usabilities for use cases are analysed. Within the scope of investigation are point cloud models, building information models, photogrammetry models, and these enriched with sensor data are examined. It is investigated which digital models allow a simple integration of sensor data and where the differences are. Subsequently, possible application areas of digital factory models are determined by means of a survey and the respective digital factory models are assigned to the application areas. Finally, an application case from maintenance is selected and implemented with the help of the appropriate digital factory model. It is shown how a completely digitalized maintenance process can be supported by a digital factory model by providing information. Among other purposes, the digital factory model is used for indoor navigation, information provision, and display of sensor data. In summary, the paper shows a structuring of digital factory models that concentrates on the geometric representation of a factory building and its technical facilities. A practical application case is shown and implemented. Thus, the systematic selection of digital factory models with the corresponding application cases is evaluated.

Keywords: building information modeling, digital factory model, factory planning, maintenance

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Authors: Yoko Yamada, Chizumi Yamada

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Narrative psychology is based on the dialogical relationship between self and other. The dialogue can consist of divided, competitive, or opposite communication between self and other. We constructed models of coexistent dialogue in which self and other were positioned side by side and communicated sympathetically. We propose new mediation models for narrative relationships. The mediation models are based on triadic relationships that incorporate a medium or a mediator along with self and other. We constructed three types of mediation model. In the first type, called the “Joint Attention Model”, self and other are positioned side by side and share attention with the medium. In the second type, the “Triangle Model”, an agent mediates between self and other. In the third type, the “Caring Model”, a caregiver stands beside the communication between self and other. We apply the three models to the illness narratives of medical professionals and patients. As these groups have different views and experiences of disease or illness, triadic mediation facilitates the ability to see things from the other person’s perspective and to bridge differences in people’s experiences and feelings. These models would be useful for medical education in various situations, such as in considering the relationships between senior and junior doctors and between old and young patients.

Keywords: illness narrative, mediation, psychology, model, medical education

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Authors: Mareike Dornhoefer, Madjid Fathi

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Water supply and water quality are key problems of mankind at the moment and - due to increasing population - in the future. Management disciplines like water, environment and quality management therefore need to closely interact, to establish a high level of water quality and to guarantee water supply in all parts of the world. Groundwater remediation is one aspect in this process. From a knowledge management perspective it is only possible to solve complex ecological or environmental problems if different factors, expert knowledge of various stakeholders and formal regulations regarding water, waste or chemical management are interconnected in form of a knowledge base. In general knowledge management focuses the processes of gathering and representing existing and new knowledge in a way, which allows for inference or deduction of knowledge for e.g. a situation where a problem solution or decision support are required. A knowledge base is no sole data repository, but a key element in a knowledge based system, thus providing or allowing for inference mechanisms to deduct further knowledge from existing facts. In consequence this knowledge provides decision support. The given paper introduces an environmental knowledge system in water management. The proposed environmental knowledge system is part of a research concept called Green Knowledge Management. It applies semantic technologies or concepts such as ontology or linked open data to interconnect different data and information sources about environmental aspects, in this case, water quality, as well as background material enriching an established knowledge base. Examples for the aforementioned ecological or environmental factors threatening water quality are among others industrial pollution (e.g. leakage of chemicals), environmental changes (e.g. rise in temperature) or floods, where all kinds of waste are merged and transferred into natural water environments. Water quality is usually determined with the help of measuring different indicators (e.g. chemical or biological), which are gathered with the help of laboratory testing, continuous monitoring equipment or other measuring processes. During all of these processes data are gathered and stored in different databases. Meanwhile the knowledge base needs to be established through interconnecting data of these different data sources and enriching its semantics. Experts may add their knowledge or experiences of previous incidents or influencing factors. In consequence querying or inference mechanisms are applied for the deduction of coherence between indicators, predictive developments or environmental threats. Relevant processes or steps of action may be modeled in form of a rule based approach. Overall the environmental knowledge system supports the interconnection of information and adding semantics to create environmental knowledge about water environment, supply chain as well as quality. The proposed concept itself is a holistic approach, which links to associated disciplines like environmental and quality management. Quality indicators and quality management steps need to be considered e.g. for the process and inference layers of the environmental knowledge system, thus integrating the aforementioned management disciplines in one water management application.

Keywords: water quality, environmental knowledge system, green knowledge management, semantic technologies, quality management

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Authors: Leila Asadollahi

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Dry powder inhalers (DPIs) have come a long way since their creation, starting with the Spinhaler Fisons in 1967. For optimal performance, it is important to consider the interplay between formulation, device, and patient. DPIs have shown great potential in treating systemic disorders, as evidenced by their success in clinical practices. Ongoing clinical trials and market availability of DPI products for systemic disease treatment are also examined. Furthermore, the current COVID-19 pandemic has sparked increased interest in dry powder inhalation as a potential avenue for vaccines and antiviral drugs, prompting further exploration of its applications. To achieve optimal treatment outcomes for respiratory diseases, a thorough understanding of the various types of DPIs currently available is crucial. These include single-dose, multiple-unit dose, and multi-dose DPIs. This informative article delves into the administration of drugs via inhalation, examining its diverse routes of administration. Additionally, it illuminates the exciting advancements in inhalation delivery systems and investigates the latest therapeutic approaches for the treatment of respiratory ailments. Additionally, the article discusses the historical development of DPIs and the need for improved designs to enhance efficacy and patient adherence. The potential of DPIs in treating systemic diseases is also examined. Overall, this review provides valuable insights into the advancements, challenges, and future prospects of inhalation drug delivery systems, highlighting the potential they hold for respiratory and systemic disorders. The review aims to provide valuable insights into the advancements, challenges, and future prospects of inhalation drug delivery systems, highlighting the potential they hold for respiratory and systemic disorders.

Keywords: dry powder inhalers (DPIs), respiratory diseases, systemic disorders, pulmonary drug delivery

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Authors: Eyhab El-Kharashi, Maher El-Dessouki

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The paper is dedicated to precise assessment of the induction motor output energy during the unbalanced operation. Since many years ago and until now the voltage complex unbalance factor (CVUF) is used only to assess the output energy of the induction motor while this output energy for asymmetry supply voltage does not depend on the value of unbalanced voltage only but also on the machine parameters. The paper illustrates the variation of the two unbalance factors, complex voltage unbalance factor (CVUF) and impedance unbalance factor (IUF), with positive sequence voltage component, reveals that degree and manner of unbalance in supply voltage. From this point of view the paper delineates the current unbalance factor (CUF) to exactly reflect the output energy during unbalanced operation. The paper proceeds to illustrate the importance of using this factor in the multi-machine system to precise prediction of the output energy during the unbalanced operation. The use of the proposed unbalance factor (CUF) avoids the accumulation of the error due to more than one machine in the system which is expected if only the complex voltage unbalance factor (CVUF) is used.

Keywords: induction motor, electromagnetic torque, voltage unbalance, energy conversion

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Authors: Gelu Varghese, Khizer Saeed

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Biodiesel is as a mixture of mono-alkyl esters of long chain fatty acids derived from vegetable oils or animal fats. Recent studies in the literature suggest that end property of biodiesel such as its oxidative stability (OS) is highly influenced by the structure and composition of its alkyl esters than by environmental conditions. The structure and composition of these long chain fatty acid components have been also associated with trends in Cetane number, heat of combustion, cold flow properties viscosity, and lubricity. In the present work, detailed investigation has been carried out to decouple and correlate the fatty acid structure indices of biodiesel such as degree of unsaturation, chain length, double bond orientation, and composition with its oxidative stability. Measurements were taken using the EN14214 established Rancimat oxidative stability test method (EN141120). Firstly, effects of the degree of unsaturation, chain length and bond orientation were tested for the pure fatty acids to establish their oxidative stability. Results for pure Fatty acid show that Saturated FAs are more stable than unsaturated ones to oxidation; superior oxidative stability can be achieved by blending biodiesel fuels with relatively high in saturated fatty acid contents. A lower oxidative stability is noticed when a greater quantity of double bonds is present in the methyl ester. A strong inverse relationship with the number of double bonds and the Rancimat IP values can be identified. Trans isomer Methyl elaidate shows superior stability to oxidation than its cis isomer methyl oleate (7.2 vs. 2.3). Secondly, the effects of the variation in the composition of the biodiesel were investigated and established. Finally, biodiesels with varying structure and composition were investigated and correlated.

Keywords: biodiesel, fame, oxidative stability, fatty acid structure, acid composition

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Authors: A. A. A. Aboalnour, Ahmed M. Amasaib, Mohammed-Almujtaba A. Mohammed-Farah, Abdelhakam, A. Noreldien

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This paper presents a design and study of Parabolic Trough Solar Collector (PTC). Mathematical models were used in this work to find the direct and reflected solar radiation from the air layer on the surface of the earth per hour based on the total daily solar radiation on a horizontal surface. Also mathematical models had been used to calculate the radiation of the tilted surfaces. Most of the ingredients used in this project as previews data required on several solar energy applications, thermal simulation, and solar power systems. In addition, mathematical models had been used to study the flow of the fluid inside the tube (receiver), and study the effect of direct and reflected solar radiation on the pressure, temperature, speed, kinetic energy and forces of fluid inside the tube. Finally, the mathematical models had been used to study the (PTC) performances and estimate its thermal efficiency.

Keywords: CFD, experimental, mathematical models, parabolic trough, radiation

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Authors: Alireza Vafaei Sadr, Vida Abedi, Jiang Li, Ramin Zand

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Missing data is a common challenge in medical research and can lead to biased or incomplete results. When the data bias leaks into models, it further exacerbates health disparities; biased algorithms can lead to misclassification and reduced resource allocation and monitoring as part of prevention strategies for certain minorities and vulnerable segments of patient populations, which in turn further reduce data footprint from the same population – thus, a vicious cycle. This study compares the performance of six imputation techniques grouped into Linear and Non-Linear models on two different realworld electronic health records (EHRs) datasets, representing 17864 patient records. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) are used as performance metrics, and the results show that the Linear models outperformed the Non-Linear models in terms of both metrics. These results suggest that sometimes Linear models might be an optimal choice for imputation in laboratory variables in terms of imputation efficiency and uncertainty of predicted values.

Keywords: EHR, machine learning, imputation, laboratory variables, algorithmic bias

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Authors: Craig M. Allen

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Twenty two African entrepreneurs with Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in a single social network centered around a non-Muslim population in a smaller African country, selected an Islamic financing structure, a form of Murabaha, based solely on market rationale. These entrepreneurs had all won procurement contracts from major purchasers of goods within their country and faced difficulty arranging traditional bank financing to support their supply-chain needs. The Murabaha-based structure satisfied their market-driven demand and provided an attractive alternative to the traditional bank-offered lending products. The Murabaha-styled trade-financing structure was not promoted with any religious implications, but solely as a market solution to the existing problems associated with bank-related financing. This indicates the strong market forces that draw SMEs to financing structures that are traditionally considered within the framework of Islamic finance.

Keywords: Africa, entrepreneurs, Islamic finance, market acceptance, Murabaha, SMEs

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Authors: Julio Macedo

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Several methodologies are now available to conceive the improvements of a process so that it becomes competitive as for example total quality, process reengineering, six sigma, define measure analysis improvement control method. These improvements are of different nature and can be external to the process represented by an optimization model or a discrete simulation model. In addition, the process stakeholders are several and have different desired performances for the process. Hence, the methodologies above do not have a tool to aid in the conception of the required improvements. In order to fill this void we suggest the use of intelligent reference models. A reference model is a set of qualitative differential equations and an objective function that minimizes the gap between the current and the desired performance indexes of the process. The reference models are intelligent so when they receive the current state of the problematic process and the desired performance indexes they generate the required improvements for the problematic process. The reference models are fuzzy cognitive maps added with an objective function and trained using the improvements implemented by the high performance firms. Experiments done in a set of students show the reference models allow them to conceive more improvements than students that do not use these models.

Keywords: continuous improvement, fuzzy cognitive maps, process competitiveness, qualitative simulation, system dynamics

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Authors: Juliana V. Pereira, Adriana S. M. Batista, Jefferson P. Nascimento, Clascídia A. Furtado, Luiz O. Faria

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Exposure to ionizing radiation has been found to induce changes in poly(vinylidene fluoride) (PVDF) homopolymers. The high dose gamma irradiation process induces the formation of C=C and C=O bonds in its [CH₂-CF₂]_n main chain. The irradiation also provokes crosslinking and chain scission. All these radio-induced defects lead to changes in the PVDF crystalline structure. As a consequence, it is common to observe a decrease in the melting temperature (T_M) and melting latent heat (L_M) and some changes in its ferroelectric features. We have investigated the possibility of preparing nanocomposites of PVDF with graphene oxide (GO) through the radio-induction of molecular bonds. In this work, we discuss how the gamma radiation interacts with the nanocomposite crystalline structure.

Keywords: gamma irradiation, graphene oxide, nanocomposites, PVDF

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Authors: Diyono Harun

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Indonesia aims to reduce carbon emissions from energy generation by reaching 23% and 31% of the national energy supply from renewable energy sources (RES) in 2025 and 2030. The potential for RES in Indonesia is enormous, but not all province has the same potential for RES. Yogyakarta, one of the most travel-destinated provinces in Indonesia, has less potential than its neighbour, Central Java. Consequently, Yogyakarta must meet its electricity demand by importing electricity from Central Java if this province only wants to use electricity from RES. Thus, achieving the objective is balancing the electricity supply between an importer (Yogyakarta) and an exporter province (Central Java). This research aims to explore the RES potential and the current capacity of RES for electricity generation in both provinces. The results show that the present capacity of RES meets the annual domestic electricity demand in both provinces only with an extension of the RES potential. The renewable energy mixes in this research also can lower CO2 emissions compared to gas-fired power plants. This research eventually provides insights into exploring and using the domestic RES potentials between two areas with different RES capacities.

Keywords: energy mix, renewable energy sources, domestic electricity, electricity generation

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Authors: Mihika Shivkumar, Krishna Kumar, C. Perisamy

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3D printing is a method of manufacturing wherein materials, such as plastic or metal, are deposited in layers one on top of the other to produce a three dimensional object. 3D printing is most commonly associated with creating engineering prototypes. However, its applications in the field of human health care have been frequently disregarded. Medical applications for 3D printing are expanding rapidly and are envisaged to revolutionize health care. Medical applications for 3D printing, both present and its potential, can be categorized broadly, including: creation of customized prosthetics tissue and organ fabrication; creation of implants, and anatomical models and pharmaceutical research regarding drug dosage forms. This piece breaks down bioprinting in the healthcare sector. It focuses on the better subtle elements of every particular point, including how 3D printing functions in the present, its impediments, and future applications in the health care sector.

Keywords: bio-printing, prototype, drug delivery, organ regeneration

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Authors: Suriya

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Rapid socio-economic development and urbanization have led to an increasingly serious air pollution problem in Ulaanbaatar (UB), the capital of Mongolia. PM₂.₅ pollution has become the most pressing aspect of UB air pollution. Therefore, monitoring and predicting PM₂.₅ concentration in UB is of great significance for the health of the local people and environmental management. As of yet, very few studies have used models to predict PM₂.₅ concentrations in UB. Using data from 0:00 on June 1, 2018, to 23:00 on April 30, 2020, we proposed two deep learning models based on Bayesian-optimized LSTM (Bayes-LSTM) and CNN-LSTM. We utilized hourly observed data, including Himawari8 (H8) aerosol optical depth (AOD), meteorology, and PM₂.₅ concentration, as input for the prediction of PM₂.₅ concentrations. The correlation strengths between meteorology, AOD, and PM₂.₅ were analyzed using the gray correlation analysis method; the comparison of the performance improvement of the model by using the AOD input value was tested, and the performance of these models was evaluated using mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE). The prediction accuracies of Bayes-LSTM and CNN-LSTM deep learning models were both improved when AOD was included as an input parameter. Improvement of the prediction accuracy of the CNN-LSTM model was particularly enhanced in the non-heating season; in the heating season, the prediction accuracy of the Bayes-LSTM model slightly improved, while the prediction accuracy of the CNN-LSTM model slightly decreased. We propose two novel deep learning models for PM₂.₅ concentration prediction in UB, Bayes-LSTM, and CNN-LSTM deep learning models. Pioneering the use of AOD data from H8 and demonstrating the inclusion of AOD input data improves the performance of our two proposed deep learning models.

Keywords: deep learning, AOD, PM2.5, prediction, Ulaanbaatar

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Authors: Y. N. Phang, E. F. Loh

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Many researchers have suggested the use of zero inflated Poisson (ZIP) and zero inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models in modeling over-dispersed medical count data with extra variations caused by extra zeros and unobserved heterogeneity. The studies indicate that ZIP and ZINB always provide better fit than using the normal Poisson and negative binomial models in modeling over-dispersed medical count data. In this study, we proposed the use of Zero Inflated Inverse Trinomial (ZIIT), Zero Inflated Poisson Inverse Gaussian (ZIPIG) and zero inflated strict arcsine models in modeling over-dispersed medical count data. These proposed models are not widely used by many researchers especially in the medical field. The results show that these three suggested models can serve as alternative models in modeling over-dispersed medical count data. This is supported by the application of these suggested models to a real life medical data set. Inverse trinomial, Poisson inverse Gaussian, and strict arcsine are discrete distributions with cubic variance function of mean. Therefore, ZIIT, ZIPIG and ZISA are able to accommodate data with excess zeros and very heavy tailed. They are recommended to be used in modeling over-dispersed medical count data when ZIP and ZINB are inadequate.

Keywords: zero inflated, inverse trinomial distribution, Poisson inverse Gaussian distribution, strict arcsine distribution, Pearson’s goodness of fit

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Authors: Jihye Jeon

Abstract:

This paper analyzes the conceptual framework of three statistical methods, multiple regression, path analysis, and structural equation models. When establishing research model of the statistical modeling of complex social phenomenon, it is important to know the strengths and limitations of three statistical models. This study explored the character, strength, and limitation of each modeling and suggested some strategies for accurate explaining or predicting the causal relationships among variables. Especially, on the studying of depression or mental health, the common mistakes of research modeling were discussed.

Keywords: multiple regression, path analysis, structural equation models, statistical modeling, social and psychological phenomenon

Procedia PDF Downloads 641

Authors: Elias Ogutu Azariah Tembe, Hussain Abdullah Habib Al-Salamin

Abstract:

There is decagram of strategic decisions of operations and production/service management (POSM) within operational research (OR) which must collate, namely: design, inventory, quality, location, process and capacity, layout, scheduling, maintain ace, and supply chain. This paper presents an architectural configuration conceptual framework of a decagram of sets decisions in a form of mathematical complete graph and abelian graph. Mathematically, a complete graph is undirected (UDG), and directed (DG) a relationship where every pair of vertices are connected, collated, confluent, and holomorphic. There has not been any study conducted which, however, prioritizes the holomorphic sets which of POMS within OR field of study. The study utilizes OR structured technique known as The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) analysis for organizing, sorting and prioritizing (ranking) the sets within the decagram of POMS according to their attribution (propensity), and provides an analysis how the prioritization has real-world application within the 21st century.

Keywords: holomorphic, decagram, decagon, confluent, complete graph, AHP analysis, SCM, HRM, OR, OM, abelian graph

Procedia PDF Downloads 400

Authors: Sima Najafzadehkhoei, George Vega Yon

Abstract:

We propose an approach utilizing Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to calibrate Agent-Based Models (ABMs) efficiently. This application targets Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) models, a foundational framework in epidemiology. By leveraging machine learning, our approach replicates parameter values from observed trajectory curves, significantly improving accuracy over traditional methods. The method allows us to use simulated data to train the models. We explored two approaches: one in which we have all the information about the number of susceptible, infected, and recovered agents, and another in which we only use the number of infected cases. The method can be extended to other types of ABMs, for which calibration can be computationally expensive.

Keywords: ABM, calibration, CNN, LSTM, epidemiology

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Authors: Daniel Murrant, Andrew Quinn, Lee Chapman

Abstract:

A growing population has led to increasing global water and energy demand. This demand, combined with the effects of climate change and an increasing need to maintain and protect the natural environment, represents a potentially severe threat to many national infrastructure systems. This has resulted in a considerable quantity of published material on the interdependencies that exist between the supply of water and the thermal generation of electricity, often known as the water-energy nexus. Focusing specifically on the UK, there is a growing concern that the future availability of water may at times constrain thermal electricity generation, and therefore hinder the UK in meeting its increasing demand for a secure, and affordable supply of low carbon electricity. To provide further information on the threat the water-energy nexus may pose to the UK’s energy system, this paper models the regional water demand of UK thermal electricity generation in 2030 and 2050. It uses the strategically important Energy Systems Modelling Environment model developed by the Energy Technologies Institute. Unlike previous research, this paper was able to use abstraction and consumption factors specific to UK power stations. It finds that by 2050 the South East, Yorkshire and Humber, the West Midlands and North West regions are those with the greatest freshwater demand and therefore most likely to suffer from a lack of resource. However, it finds that by 2050 it is the East, South West and East Midlands regions with the greatest total water (fresh, estuarine and seawater) demand and the most likely to be constrained by environmental standards.

Keywords: climate change, power station cooling, UK water-energy nexus, water abstraction, water resources

Procedia PDF Downloads 290

Authors: Fathilahbinti Ali, Jamarosliza Jamaluddin, Arun Kumar Upadhyay

Abstract:

Poly(lactic acid) (PLA) is a biodegradable polymer which has good mechanical properties, however, its brittleness limits its usage especially in packaging materials. Therefore, in this work, PLA based polyurethane films were prepared by synthesizing with different types of isocyanates; methylene diisocyanate (MDI) and hexamethylene diisocyanates (HDI). For this purpose, PLA based polyurethane must have good strength and flexibility. Therefore, polycaprolactone which has better flexibility were prepared with PLA. An effective way to endow polylactic acid with toughness is through chain-extension reaction of the polylactic acid pre-polymer with polycaprolactone used as chain extender. Polyurethane prepared from MDI showed brittle behaviour, while, polyurethane prepared from HDI showed flexibility at same concentrations.

Keywords: biodegradable polymer, flexible, poly(lactic acid), polyurethane

Procedia PDF Downloads 345

Authors: Lo Kar Yin, Law Ka Mei

Abstract:

Architectural, engineering, construction and operations (AECO) industry practitioners have been well adapting to the dynamic construction market from the fundamental training of its discipline. As further triggered by the pandemic since 2019, great steps are taken in virtual environment and the best collaboration is strived with project teams without boundaries. With adoption of Building Information Modeling-based approach and qualitative analysis, this paper is to review quantity take-off and cost estimation process through modeling techniques in liaison with suppliers, fabricators, subcontractors, contractors, designers, consultants and services providers in the construction industry value chain for automatic project cost budgeting, project cost control and cost evaluation on design options of in-situ reinforced-concrete construction and Modular Integrated Construction (MiC) at design stage, variation of works and cash flow/spending analysis at construction stage as far as practicable, with a view to sharing the findings for enhancing mutual trust and co-operation among AECO industry practitioners. It is to foster development through a common prototype of design and build project delivery method in NEC Engineering and Construction Contract (ECC) Options A and C.

Keywords: building information modeling, cost estimation, quantity take-off, modeling techniques

Procedia PDF Downloads 179