Search results for: true and fair
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1185

Search results for: true and fair

105 Articulating the Colonial Relation, a Conversation between Afropessimism and Anti-Colonialism

Authors: Thomas Compton

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As Decolonialism becomes an important topic in Political Theory, the rupture between the colonized and the colonist relation has lost attention. Focusing on the anti-colonial activist Madhi Amel, we shall consider his attention to the permanence of the colonial relation and how it preempts Frank Wilderson’s formulation of (white) culturally necessary Anti-Black violence. Both projects draw attention away from empirical accounts of oppression, instead focusing on the structural relation which precipitates them. As Amel says that we should stop thinking of the ‘underdeveloped’ as beyond the colonial relation, Wilderson says we should stop think of the Black rights that have surpassed the role of the slave. However, Amel moves beyond his idol Althusser’s Structuralism toward a formulation of the colonial relation as source of domination. Our analysis will take a Lacanian turn in considering how this non-relation was formulated as a relation how this space of negativity became a ideological opportunity for Colonial domination. Wilderson’s work shall problematise this as we conclude with his criticisms of Structural accounts for the failure to consider how Black social death exists as more than necessity but a cite of white desire. Amel, a Lebanese activist and scholar (re)discovered by Hicham Safieddine, argues colonialism is more than the theft of land, but instead a privatization of collective property and form of investment which (re)produces the status of the capitalist in spaces ‘outside’ the market. Although Amel was a true Marxist-Leninsist, who exposited the economic determinacy of the Colonial Mode of Production, we are reading this account through Alenka Zupančič’s reformulation of the ‘invisible hand job of the market’. Amel points to the signifier ‘underdeveloped’ as buttressed on a pre-colonial epistemic break, as the Western investor (debt collector) sees the (post?) colony narcissistic image. However, the colony can never become site of class conflict, as the workers are not unified but existing between two countries. In industry, they are paid in Colonial subjectivisation, the promise of market (self)pleasure, at home, they are refugees. They are not, as Wilderson states, in the permanent social death of the slave, but they are less than the white worker. This is formulated as citizen (white), non-citizen (colonized), anti-citizen (Black/slave). Here we may also think of how indentured Indians were used as instruments of colonial violence. Wilderson’s aphorism “there is no analogy to anti-Black violence” lays bare his fundamental opposition between colonial and specifically anti-Black violence. It is not only that the debt collector, landowner, or other owners of production pleasures themselves as if their hand is invisible. The absolute negativity between colony and colonized provides a new frontier for desire, the development of a colonial mode of production. An invention inside the colonial structure that is generative of class substitution. We shall explore how Amel ignores the role of the slave but how Wilderson forecloses the history African anti-colonial.

Keywords: afropessimism, fanon, marxism, postcolonialism

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104 Investigation of the Effects of Visually Disabled and Typical Development Students on Their Multiple Intelligence by Applying Abacus and Right Brain Training

Authors: Sidika Di̇lşad Kaya, Ahmet Seli̇m Kaya, Ibrahi̇m Eri̇k, Havva Yaldiz, Yalçin Kaya

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The aim of this study was to reveal the effects of right brain development on reading, comprehension, learning and concentration levels and rapid processing skills in students with low vision and students with standard development, and to explore the effects of right and left brain integration on students' academic success and the permanence of the learned knowledge. A total of 68 students with a mean age of 10.01±0.12 were included in the study, 58 of them with standard development, 9 partially visually impaired and 1 totally visually disabled student. The student with a total visual impairment could not participate in the reading speed test due to her total visual impairment. The following data were measured in the participant students before the project; Reading speed measurement in 1 minute, Reading comprehension questions, Burdon attention test, 50 questions of math quiz timed with a stopwatch. Participants were trained for 3 weeks, 5 days a week, for a total of two hours a day. In this study, right-brain developing exercises were carried out with the use of an abacus, and it was aimed to develop both mathematical and attention of students with questions prepared with numerical data taken from fairy tale activities. Among these problems, the study was supported with multiple-choice, 5W (what, where, who, why, when?), 1H (how?) questions along with true-false and fill-in-the-blank activities. By using memory cards, students' short-term memories were strengthened, photographic memory studies were conducted and their visual intelligence was supported. Auditory intelligence was supported by aiming to make calculations by using the abacus in the minds of the students with the numbers given aurally. When calculating the numbers by touching the real abacus, the development of students' tactile intelligence is enhanced. Research findings were analyzed in SPSS program, Kolmogorov Smirnov test was used for normality analysis. Since the variables did not show normal distribution, Wilcoxon test, one of the non-parametric tests, was used to compare the dependent groups. Statistical significance level was accepted as 0.05. The reading speed of the participants was 83.54±33.03 in the pre-test and 116.25±38.49 in the post-test. Narration pre-test 69.71±25.04 post-test 97.06±6.70; BURDON pretest 84.46±14.35 posttest 95.75±5.67; rapid math processing skills pretest 90.65±10.93, posttest 98.18±2.63 (P<0.05). It was determined that the pre-test and post-test averages of students with typical development and students with low vision were also significant for all four values (p<0.05). As a result of the data obtained from the participants, it is seen that the study was effective in terms of measurement parameters, and the findings were statistically significant. Therefore, it is recommended to use the method widely.

Keywords: Abacus, reading speed, multiple intelligences, right brain training, visually impaired

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103 A Formal Microlectic Framework for Biological Circularchy

Authors: Ellis D. Cooper

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“Circularchy” is supposed to be an adjustable formal framework with enough expressive power to articulate biological theory about Earthly Life in the sense of multi-scale biological autonomy constrained by non-equilibrium thermodynamics. “Formal framework” means specifically a multi-sorted first-order-theorywithequality (for each sort). Philosophically, such a theory is one kind of “microlect,” which means a “way of speaking” (or, more generally, a “way of behaving”) for overtly expressing a “mental model” of some “referent.” Other kinds of microlect include “natural microlect,” “diagrammatic microlect,” and “behavioral microlect,” with examples such as “political theory,” “Euclidean geometry,” and “dance choreography,” respectively. These are all describable in terms of a vocabulary conforming to grammar. As aspects of human culture, they are possibly reminiscent of Ernst Cassirer’s idea of “symbolic form;” as vocabularies, they are akin to Richard Rorty’s idea of “final vocabulary” for expressing a mental model of one’s life. A formal microlect is presented by stipulating sorts, variables, calculations, predicates, and postulates. Calculations (a.k.a., “terms”) may be composed to form more complicated calculations; predicates (a.k.a., “relations”) may be logically combined to form more complicated predicates; and statements (a.k.a., “sentences”) are grammatically correct expressions which are true or false. Conclusions are statements derived using logical rules of deduction from postulates, other assumed statements, or previously derived conclusions. A circularchy is a formal microlect constituted by two or more sub-microlects, each with its distinct stipulations of sorts, variables, calculations, predicates, and postulates. Within a sub-microlect some postulates or conclusions are equations which are statements that declare equality of specified calculations. An equational bond between an equation in one sub-microlect and an equation in either the same sub-microlect or in another sub-microlect is a predicate that declares equality of symbols occurring in a side of one equation with symbols occurring in a side of the other equation. Briefly, a circularchy is a network of equational bonds between sub-microlects. A circularchy is solvable if there exist solutions for all equations that satisfy all equational bonds. If a circularchy is not solvable, then a challenge would be to discover the obstruction to solvability and then conjecture what adjustments might remove the obstruction. Adjustment means changes in stipulated ingredients (sorts, etc.) of sub-microlects, or changes in equational bonds between sub-microlects, or introduction of new sub-microlects and new equational bonds. A circularchy is modular insofar as each sub-microlect is a node in a network of equation bonds. Solvability of a circularchy may be conjectured. Efforts to prove solvability may be thwarted by a counter-example or may lead to the construction of a solution. An automated theorem-proof assistant would likely be necessary for investigating a substantial circularchy, such as one purported to represent Earthly Life. Such investigations (chains of statements) would be concurrent with and no substitute for simulations (chains of numbers).

Keywords: autonomy, first-order theory, mathematics, thermodynamics

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102 Redefining Intellectual Humility in Indian Context: An Experimental Investigation

Authors: Jayashree And Gajjam

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Intellectual humility (IH) is defined as a virtuous mean between intellectual arrogance and intellectual self-diffidence by the ‘Doxastic Account of IH’ studied, researched and developed by western scholars not earlier than 2015 at the University of Edinburgh. Ancient Indian philosophical texts or the Upanisads written in the Sanskrit language during the later Vedic period (circa 600-300 BCE) have long addressed the virtue of being humble in several stories and narratives. The current research paper questions and revisits these character traits in an Indian context following an experimental method. Based on the subjective reports of more than 400 Indian teenagers and adults, it argues that while a few traits of IH (such as trustworthiness, respectfulness, intelligence, politeness, etc.) are panhuman and pancultural, a few are not. Some attributes of IH (such as proper pride, open-mindedness, awareness of own strength, etc.) may be taken for arrogance by the Indian population, while other qualities of Intellectual Diffidence such as agreeableness, surrendering can be regarded as the characteristic of IH. The paper then gives the reasoning for this discrepancy that can be traced back to the ancient Indian (Upaniṣadic) teachings that are still prevalent in many Indian families and still anchor their views on IH. The name Upanisad itself means ‘sitting down near’ (to the Guru to gain the Supreme knowledge of the Self and the Universe and setting to rest ignorance) which is equivalent to the three traits among the BIG SEVEN characterized as IH by the western scholars viz. ‘being a good listener’, ‘curious to learn’, and ‘respect to other’s opinion’. The story of Satyakama Jabala (Chandogya Upanisad 4.4-8) who seeks the truth for several years even from the bull, the fire, the swan and waterfowl, suggests nothing but the ‘need for cognition’ or ‘desire for knowledge’. Nachiketa (Katha Upanisad), a boy with a pure mind and heart, follows his father’s words and offers himself to Yama (the God of Death) where after waiting for Yama for three days and nights, he seeks the knowledge of the mysteries of life and death. Although the main aim of these Upaniṣadic stories is to give the knowledge of life and death, the Supreme reality which can be identical with traits such as ‘curious to learn’, one cannot deny that they have a lot more to offer than mere information about true knowledge e.g., ‘politeness’, ‘good listener’, ‘awareness of own limitations’, etc. The possible future scope of this research includes (1) finding other socio-cultural factors that affect the ideas on IH such as age, gender, caste, type of education, highest qualification, place of residence and source of income, etc. which may be predominant in current Indian society despite our great teachings of the Upaniṣads, and (2) to devise different measures to impart IH in Indian children, teenagers, and younger adults for the harmonious future. The current experimental research can be considered as the first step towards these goals.

Keywords: ethics and virtue epistemology, Indian philosophy, intellectual humility, upaniṣadic texts in ancient India

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101 Bank Failures: A Question of Leadership

Authors: Alison L. Miles

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Almost all major financial institutions in the world suffered losses due to the financial crisis of 2007, but the extent varied widely. The causes of the crash of 2007 are well documented and predominately focus on the role and complexity of the financial markets. The dominant theme of the literature suggests the causes of the crash were a combination of globalization, financial sector innovation, moribund regulation and short termism. While these arguments are undoubtedly true, they do not tell the whole story. A key weakness in the current analysis is the lack of consideration of those leading the banks pre and during times of crisis. This purpose of this study is to examine the possible link between the leadership styles and characteristics of the CEO, CFO and chairman and the financial institutions that failed or needed recapitalization. As such, it contributes to the literature and debate on international financial crises and systemic risk and also to the debate on risk management and regulatory reform in the banking sector. In order to first test the proposition (p1) that there are prevalent leadership characteristics or traits in financial institutions, an initial study was conducted using a sample of the top 65 largest global banks and financial institutions according to the Banker Top 1000 banks 2014. Secondary data from publically available and official documents, annual reports, treasury and parliamentary reports together with a selection of press articles and analyst meeting transcripts was collected longitudinally from the period 1998 to 2013. A computer aided key word search was used in order to identify the leadership styles and characteristics of the chairman, CEO and CFO. The results were then compared with the leadership models to form a picture of leadership in the sector during the research period. As this resulted in separate results that needed combining, SPSS data editor was used to aggregate the results across the studies using the variables ‘leadership style’ and ‘company financial performance’ together with the size of the company. In order to test the proposition (p2) that there was a prevalent leadership style in the banks that failed and the proposition (P3) that this was different to those that did not, further quantitative analysis was carried out on the leadership styles of the chair, CEO and CFO of banks that needed recapitalization, were taken over, or required government bail-out assistance during 2007-8. These included: Lehman Bros, Merrill Lynch, Royal Bank of Scotland, HBOS, Barclays, Northern Rock, Fortis and Allied Irish. The findings show that although regulatory reform has been a key mechanism of control of behavior in the banking sector, consideration of the leadership characteristics of those running the board are a key factor. They add weight to the argument that if each crisis is met with the same pattern of popular fury with the financier, increased regulation, followed by back to business as usual, the cycle of failure will always be repeated and show that through a different lens, new paradigms can be formed and future clashes avoided.

Keywords: banking, financial crisis, leadership, risk

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100 Domestic Violence Against Women (With Special Reference to India): A Human Rights Issue

Authors: N. B. Chandrakala

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Domestic violence is one of the most under-reported crimes. Problem with domestic violence is that it is not even considered as abuse in many parts of the world especially certain parts of Asia, Africa and Middle East. It is viewed as “doing the needful”. Domestic violence could be in form of emotional harassment, physical injury or psychological abuse perpetrated by one of the family members to another. It is a worldwide phenomenon mainly targeting women. The acts of violence have terrible negative impact on women. It is also an infringement of women’s rights and can be safely termed as human rights abuse. In cases pertaining to domestic violence, male adults often misuses his authority and power to control another using physical or psychological means. Violence and other forms of abuse are common in domestic violence. Sexual assaults, molestation and battering are common in these cases. Domestic violence is a human rights issue and a serious deterrent to development. Domestic violence could also take place in subtle forms like making the person feel worthless or not giving the victims any personal space or freedom. The problematic aspect is cases of domestic violence are very rarely reported. The majority of the victims are women but children are also made to suffer silently. They are abused and neglected. Their innocent minds are adversely affected with the incidents of domestic violence. According to a report by World Health Organization (WHO), sexual trafficking, female feticide, dowry death, public humiliation and physical torture are some of the most common forms of domestic violence against Indian women. Such acts belie our growth and claim as an economic superpower. It is ironic that we claim to be one of the most rapidly advancing countries in the world and yet we have done hardly anything of note against social hazards like domestic violence. Laws are not that stringent when it comes to reporting acts of domestic violence. Even if the report is filed it turns out to be a long drawn process and not every victim has that much resource to fight till the end. It is also a social taboo to make your family matters public. The big challenge in front now is to enforce it in true sense. Steps that are actually needed; tough laws against domestic violence, speedy execution and change in the mindset of society only then we can expect to have some improvement in such inhuman cases. An effective response to violence must be multi-sectoral; addressing the immediate practical needs of women experiencing abuse; providing long-term follow up and assistance; and focusing on changing those cultural norms, attitudes and legal provisions that promote the acceptance of and even encourage violence against women, and undermine women's enjoyment of their full human rights and freedoms. Hence the responses to the problem must be based on integrated approach. The effectiveness of measures and initiatives will depend on coherence and coordination associated with their design and implementation.

Keywords: domestic violence, human rights, sexual assaults, World Health Organization

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99 The Food and Nutritional Effects of Smallholders’ Participation in Milk Value Chain in Ethiopia

Authors: Geday Elias, Montaigne Etienne, Padilla Martine, Tollossa Degefa

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Smallholder farmers’ participation in agricultural value chain identified as a pathway to get out of poverty trap in Ethiopia. The smallholder dairy activities have a huge potential in poverty reduction through enhancing income, achieving food and nutritional security in the country. However, much less is known about the effects of smallholder’s participation in milk value chain on household food security and nutrition. This paper therefore, aims at evaluating the effects of smallholders’ participation in milk value chain on household food security taking in to account the four pillars of food security measurements (availability, access, utilization and stability). Using a semi-structured interview, a cross sectional farm household data collected from a randomly selected sample of 333 households (170 in Amhara and 163 in Oromia regions).Binary logit and propensity score matching( PSM) models are employed to examine the mechanisms through which smallholder’s participation in the milk value chain affects household food security where crop production, per capita calorie intakes, diet diversity score, and food insecurity access scale are used to measure food availability, access, utilization and stability respectively. Our findings reveal from 333 households, only 34.5% of smallholder farmers are participated in the milk value chain. Limited access to inputs and services, limited access to inputs markets and high transaction costs are key constraints for smallholders’ limited access to the milk value chain. To estimate the true average participation effects of milk value chain for participated households, the outcome variables (food security) of farm households who participated in milk value chain are compared with the outcome variables if the farm households had not participated. The PSM analysis reveals smallholder’s participation in milk value chain has a significant positive effect on household income, food security and nutrition. Smallholder farmers who are participated in milk chain are better by 15 quintals crops production and 73 percent of per capita calorie intakes in food availability and access respectively than smallholder farmers who are not participated in the market. Similarly, the participated households are better in dietary quality by 112 percents than non-participated households. Finally, smallholders’ who are participated in milk value chain are better in reducing household vulnerability to food insecurity by an average of 130 percent than non participated households. The results also shows income earned from milk value chain participation contributed to reduce capital’s constraints of the participated households’ by higher farm income and total household income by 5164 ETB and 14265 ETB respectively. This study therefore, confirms the potential role of smallholders’ participation in food value chain to get out of poverty trap through improving rural household income, food security and nutrition. Therefore, identified the determinants of smallholder participation in milk value chain and the participation effects on food security in the study areas are worth considering as a positive knock for policymakers and development agents to tackle the poverty trap in the study area in particular and in the country in general.

Keywords: effects, food security and nutrition, milk, participation, smallholders, value chain

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98 Anaerobic Soil Disinfestation: Feasible Alternative to Soil Chemical Fumigants

Authors: P. Serrano-Pérez, M. C. Rodríguez-Molina, C. Palo, E. Palo, A. Lacasa

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Phytophthora nicotianae is the principal causal agent of root and crown rot disease of red pepper plants in Extremadura (Western Spain). There is a need to develop a biologically-based method of soil disinfestation that facilitates profitable and sustainable production without the use of chemical fumigants. Anaerobic Soil Disinfestation (ASD), as well know as biodisinfestation, has been shown to control a wide range of soil-borne pathogens and nematodes in numerous crop production systems. This method implies soil wetting, incorporation of a easily decomposable carbon-rich organic amendment and covering with plastic film for several weeks. ASD with rapeseed cake (var. Tocatta, a glucosinolates-free variety) used as C-source was assayed in spring 2014, before the pepper crop establishment. The field experiment was conducted at the Agricultural Research Centre Finca La Orden (Southwestern Spain) and the treatments were: rapeseed cake (RCP); rapeseed cake without plastic cover (RC); control non-amendment (CP) and control non-amendment without plastic cover (C). The experimental design was a randomized complete block design with four replicates and a plot size of 5 x 5 m. On 26 March, rapeseed cake (1 kg·m-2) was incorporated into the soil with a rotovator. Biological probes with the inoculum were buried at 15 and 30-cm depth (biological probes were previously prepared with 100 g of disinfected soil inoculated with chlamydospores (chlam) of P. nicotianae P13 isolate [100 chlam·g-1 of soil] and wrapped in agryl cloth). Sprinkler irrigation was run until field capacity and the corresponding plots were covered with transparent plastic (PE 0.05 mm). On 6 May plastics were removed, the biological probes were dug out and a bioassay was established. One pepper seedling at the 2 to 4 true-leaves stage was transplanted in the soil from each biological probe. Plants were grown in a climatic chamber and disease symptoms were recorded every week during 2 months. Fragments of roots and crown of symptomatic plants were analyzed on NARPH media and soil from rizospheres was analyzed using carnation petals as baits. Results of “survival” were expressed as the percentage of soil samples where P. nicotianae was detected and results of “infectivity” were expressed as the percentage of diseased plants. No differences were detected in deep effect. Infectivity of P. nicotianae chlamydospores was successfully reduced in RCP treatment (4.2% of infectivity) compared with the controls (41.7% of infectivity). The pattern of survival was similar to infectivity observed by the bioassay: 21% of survival in RCP; 79% in CP; 83% in C and 87% in RC. Although ASD may be an effective alternative to chemical fumigants to pest management, more research is necessary to show their impact on the microbial community and chemistry of the soil.

Keywords: biodisinfestation, BSD, soil fumigant alternatives, organic amendments

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97 Current Zonal Isolation Regulation and Standards: A Compare and Contrast Review in Plug and Abandonment

Authors: Z. A. Al Marhoon, H. S. Al Ramis, C. Teodoriu

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Well-integrity is one of the major elements considered for drilling geothermal, oil, and gas wells. Well-integrity is minimizing the risk of unplanned fluid flow in the well bore throughout the well lifetime. Well integrity is maximized by applying technical concepts along with practical practices and strategic planning. These practices are usually governed by standardization and regulation entities. Practices during well construction can affect the integrity of the seal at the time of abandonment. On the other hand, achieving a perfect barrier system is impracticable due to the needed cost. This results in a needed balance between regulations requirements and practical applications. The guidelines are only effective when they are attainable in practical applications. Various governmental regulations and international standards have different guidelines on what constitutes high-quality isolation from unwanted flow. Each regulating or standardization body differ in requirements based on the abandonment objective. Some regulation account more for the environmental impact, water table contamination, and possible leaks. Other regulation might lean towards driving more economical benefits while achieving an acceptable isolation criteria. The research methodology used in this topic is derived from a literature review method combined with a compare and contrast analysis. The literature review on various zonal isolation regulations and standards has been conducted. A review includes guidelines from NORSOK (Norwegian governing entity), BSEE (USA offshore governing entity), API (American Petroleum Institute) combined with ISO (International Standardization Organization). The compare and contrast analysis is conducted by assessing the objective of each abandonment regulations and standardization. The current state of well barrier regulation is in balancing action. From one side of this balance, the environmental impact and complete zonal isolation is considered. The other side of the scale is practical application and associated cost. Some standards provide a fair amount of details concerning technical requirements and are often flexible with the needed associated cost. These guidelines cover environmental impact with laws that prevent major or disastrous environmental effects of improper sealing of wells. Usually these regulations are concerned with the near future of sealing rather than long-term. Consequently, applying these guidelines become more feasible from a cost point of view to the required plugging entities. On the other hand, other regulation have well integrity procedures and regulations that lean toward more restrictions environmentally with an increased associated cost requirements. The environmental impact is detailed and covered with its entirety, including medium to small environmental impact in barrier installing operations. Clear and precise attention to long-term leakage prevention is present in these regulations. The result of the compare and contrast analysis of the literature showed that there are various objectives that might tip the scale from one side of the balance (cost) to the other (sealing quality) especially in reference to zonal isolation. Furthermore, investing in initial well construction is a crucial part of ensuring safe final well abandonment. The safety and the cost saving at the end of the well life cycle is dependent upon a well-constructed isolation systems at the beginning of the life cycle. Long term studies on zonal isolation using various hydraulic or mechanical materials need to take place to further assess permanently abandoned wells to achieve the desired balance. Well drilling and isolation techniques will be more effective when they are operationally feasible and have reasonable associated cost to aid the local economy.

Keywords: plug and abandon, P&A regulation, P&A standards, international guidelines, gap analysis

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96 A Demonstration of How to Employ and Interpret Binary IRT Models Using the New IRT Procedure in SAS 9.4

Authors: Ryan A. Black, Stacey A. McCaffrey

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Over the past few decades, great strides have been made towards improving the science in the measurement of psychological constructs. Item Response Theory (IRT) has been the foundation upon which statistical models have been derived to increase both precision and accuracy in psychological measurement. These models are now being used widely to develop and refine tests intended to measure an individual's level of academic achievement, aptitude, and intelligence. Recently, the field of clinical psychology has adopted IRT models to measure psychopathological phenomena such as depression, anxiety, and addiction. Because advances in IRT measurement models are being made so rapidly across various fields, it has become quite challenging for psychologists and other behavioral scientists to keep abreast of the most recent developments, much less learn how to employ and decide which models are the most appropriate to use in their line of work. In the same vein, IRT measurement models vary greatly in complexity in several interrelated ways including but not limited to the number of item-specific parameters estimated in a given model, the function which links the expected response and the predictor, response option formats, as well as dimensionality. As a result, inferior methods (a.k.a. Classical Test Theory methods) continue to be employed in efforts to measure psychological constructs, despite evidence showing that IRT methods yield more precise and accurate measurement. To increase the use of IRT methods, this study endeavors to provide a comprehensive overview of binary IRT models; that is, measurement models employed on test data consisting of binary response options (e.g., correct/incorrect, true/false, agree/disagree). Specifically, this study will cover the most basic binary IRT model, known as the 1-parameter logistic (1-PL) model dating back to over 50 years ago, up until the most recent complex, 4-parameter logistic (4-PL) model. Binary IRT models will be defined mathematically and the interpretation of each parameter will be provided. Next, all four binary IRT models will be employed on two sets of data: 1. Simulated data of N=500,000 subjects who responded to four dichotomous items and 2. A pilot analysis of real-world data collected from a sample of approximately 770 subjects who responded to four self-report dichotomous items pertaining to emotional consequences to alcohol use. Real-world data were based on responses collected on items administered to subjects as part of a scale-development study (NIDA Grant No. R44 DA023322). IRT analyses conducted on both the simulated data and analyses of real-world pilot will provide a clear demonstration of how to construct, evaluate, and compare binary IRT measurement models. All analyses will be performed using the new IRT procedure in SAS 9.4. SAS code to generate simulated data and analyses will be available upon request to allow for replication of results.

Keywords: instrument development, item response theory, latent trait theory, psychometrics

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95 Fashion Utopias: The Role of Fashion Exhibitions and Fashion Archives to Defining (and Stimulating) Possible Future Fashion Landscapes

Authors: Vittorio Linfante

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Utopìa is a term that, since its first appearance in 1516, in Tommaso Moro’s work, has taken on different meanings and forms in various fields: social studies, politics, art, creativity, and design. The utopias, although of short duration and in their apparent impossibility, have been able to give a shape to the future, laying the foundations for our present and the future of the next generations. The Twentieth century was the historical period crossed by many changes, and it saw the most significant number of utopias not only social, political, and scientific but also artistic, architectural, in design, communication, and, last but not least, in fashion. Over the years, fashion has been able to interpret various utopistic impulses giving form to the most futuristic visions. From the Manifesto del Vestito by Giacomo Balla, through the functional experiments that led to the Tuta by Thayath and the Varst by Aleksandr Rodčenko and Varvara Stepanova, through the Space Age visions of Rudi Gernreich, Paco Rabanne and Pierre Cardin, and the Archizoom’s political actions and their fashion project Vestirsi è facile. Experiments that have continued to the present days through the (sometimes) excessive visions of Hussein Chalayan, Alexander McQueen, and Gareth Pugh or those that are more anchored to the market (but no fewer innovative and visionaries) by Prada, Chanel, and Raf Simmons. If, as Bauman states, it is true that we have entered in a phase of Retrotopia characterized by the inability to think about new forms of the future; it is necessary, more than ever, to redefine the role of history, of its narration and its mise en scène, within the contemporary creative process. A process that increasingly requires an in-depth knowledge of the past for the definition of a renewed discourse about design processes. A discourse in which words like archive, exhibition, curating, revival, vintage, and costume take on new meanings. The paper aims to investigate–through case studies, research, and professional projects–the renewed role of curating and preserving fashion artefacts. A renewed role that–in an era of Retrotopia–museums, exhibitions, and archives can (and must) assume, to contribute to the definition of new design paradigms, capable of overcoming the traditional categories of revival or costume in favour of a more contemporary “mash-up” approach. Mash-up in which past and present, craftsmanship and new technologies, revival and experimentation merge seamlessly. In this perspective, dresses (as well as fashion accessories) should be considered not only as finished products but as artefacts capable of talking about the past and of producing unpublished new stories at the same time. Archives, exhibitions (academic and not), and museums thus become powerful sources of inspiration for fashion: places and projects capable of generating innovation, becoming active protagonists of the contemporary fashion design processes.

Keywords: heritage, history, costume and fashion interface, performance, language, design research

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94 Regional Rates of Sand Supply to the New South Wales Coast: Southeastern Australia

Authors: Marta Ribo, Ian D. Goodwin, Thomas Mortlock, Phil O’Brien

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Coastal behavior is best investigated using a sediment budget approach, based on the identification of sediment sources and sinks. Grain size distribution over the New South Wales (NSW) continental shelf has been widely characterized since the 1970’s. Coarser sediment has generally accumulated on the outer shelf, and/or nearshore zones, with the latter related to the presence of nearshore reef and bedrocks. The central part of the NSW shelf is characterized by the presence of fine sediments distributed parallel to the coastline. This study presents new grain size distribution maps along the NSW continental shelf, built using all available NSW and Commonwealth Government holdings. All available seabed bathymetric data form prior projects, single and multibeam sonar, and aerial LiDAR surveys were integrated into a single bathymetric surface for the NSW continental shelf. Grain size information was extracted from the sediment sample data collected in more than 30 studies. The information extracted from the sediment collections varied between reports. Thus, given the inconsistency of the grain size data, a common grain size classification was her defined using the phi scale. The new sediment distribution maps produced, together with new detailed seabed bathymetric data enabled us to revise the delineation of sediment compartments to more accurately reflect the true nature of sediment movement on the inner shelf and nearshore. Accordingly, nine primary mega coastal compartments were delineated along the NSW coast and shelf. The sediment compartments are bounded by prominent nearshore headlands and reefs, and major river and estuarine inlets that act as sediment sources and/or sinks. The new sediment grain size distribution was used as an input in the morphological modelling to quantify the sediment transport patterns (and indicative rates of transport), used to investigate sand supply rates and processes from the lower shoreface to the NSW coast. The rate of sand supply to the NSW coast from deep water is a major uncertainty in projecting future coastal response to sea-level rise. Offshore transport of sand is generally expected as beaches respond to rising sea levels but an onshore supply from the lower shoreface has the potential to offset some of the impacts of sea-level rise, such as coastline recession. Sediment exchange between the lower shoreface and sub-aerial beach has been modelled across the south, central, mid-north and far-north coast of NSW. Our model approach is that high-energy storm events are the primary agents of sand transport in deep water, while non-storm conditions are responsible for re-distributing sand within the beach and surf zone.

Keywords: New South Wales coast, off-shore transport, sand supply, sediment distribution maps

Procedia PDF Downloads 223
93 How Can Food Retailing Benefit from Neuromarketing Research: The Influence of Traditional and Innovative Tools of In-Store Communication on Consumer Reactions

Authors: Jakub Berčík, Elena Horská, Ľudmila Nagyová

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Nowadays, the point of sale remains one of the few channels of communication which is not oversaturated yet and has great potential for the future. The fact that purchasing decisions are significantly affected by emotions, while up to 75 % of them are implemented at the point of sale, only demonstrates its importance. The share of impulsive purchases is about 60-75 %, depending on the particular product category. Nevertheless, habits predetermine the content of the shopping cart above all and hence in this regard the role of in-store communication is to disrupt the routine and compel the customer to try something new. This is the reason why it is essential to know how to work with this relatively young branch of marketing communication as efficiently as possible. New global trend in this discipline is evaluating the effectiveness of particular tools in the in-store communication. To increase the efficiency it is necessary to become familiar with the factors affecting the customer both consciously and unconsciously, and that is a task for neuromarketing and sensory marketing. It is generally known that the customer remembers the negative experience much longer and more intensely than the positive ones, therefore it is essential for marketers to avoid this negative experience. The final effect of POP (Point of Purchase) or POS (Point of Sale) tools is conditional not only on their quality and design, but also on the location at the point of sale which contributes to the overall positive atmosphere in the store. Therefore, in-store advertising is increasingly in the center of attention and companies are willing to spend even a third of their marketing communication budget on it. The paper deals with a comprehensive, interdisciplinary research of the impact of traditional as well as innovative tools of in-store communication on the attention and emotional state (valence and arousal) of consumers on the food market. The research integrates measurements with eye camera (Eye tracker) and electroencephalograph (EEG) in real grocery stores as well as in laboratory conditions with the purpose of recognizing attention and emotional response among respondents under the influence of selected tools of in-store communication. The object of the research includes traditional (e.g. wobblers, stoppers, floor graphics) and innovative (e.g. displays, wobblers with LED elements, interactive floor graphics) tools of in-store communication in the fresh unpackaged food segment. By using a mobile 16-channel electroencephalograph (EEG equipment) from the company EPOC, a mobile eye camera (Eye tracker) from the company Tobii and a stationary eye camera (Eye tracker) from the company Gazepoint, we observe the attention and emotional state (valence and arousal) to reveal true consumer preferences using traditional and new unusual communication tools at the point of sale of the selected foodstuffs. The paper concludes with suggesting possibilities for rational, effective and energy-efficient combination of in-store communication tools, by which the retailer can accomplish not only captivating and attractive presentation of displayed goods, but ultimately also an increase in retail sales of the store.

Keywords: electroencephalograph (EEG), emotion, eye tracker, in-store communication

Procedia PDF Downloads 385
92 Gendered Mobility: Deep Distributions in Urban Transport Systems in Delhi

Authors: Nidhi Prabha

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Transportation as a sector is one of the most significant infrastructural elements of the ‘urban.' The distinctness of an urban life in a city is marked by the dynamic movements that it enables within the city-space. Therefore it is important to study the public-transport systems that enable and foster mobility which characterizes the urban. It is also crucial to underscore the way one is examining the urban transport systems - either as an infrastructural unit in a strict physical-structural sense or as a structural unit which acts as a prism refracting multiple experiences depending on the location of the ‘commuter.' In the proposed paper, the attempt is to uncover and investigate the assumption of the neuter-commuter by looking at urban transportation in the secondary sense i.e. as a structural unit which is experienced differently by different kinds of commuters, thus making transportation deeply distributed with various social structures and locations like class or gender which map onto the transport systems. To this end, the public-transit systems operating in Urban Delhi i.e. the Delhi Metros and the Delhi Transport Corporation run public-buses are looked at as case studies. The study is premised on the knowledge and data gained from both primary and secondary sources. Primary sources include data and knowledge collected from fieldwork, the methodology for which has ranged from adopting ‘mixed-methods’ which is ‘Qualitative-then-Quantitative’ as well as borrowing ethnographic techniques. Apart from fieldwork, other primary sources looked at including Annual Reports and policy documents of the Delhi Metro Rail Corporation (DMRC) and the Delhi Transport Corporation (DTC), Union and Delhi budgets, Economic Survey of Delhi, press releases, etc. Secondary sources include the vast array of literature available on the critical nodes that inform the research like gender, transport geographies, urban-space, etc. The study indicates a deeply-distributed urban transport system wherein the various social-structural locations or different kinds of commuters map onto the way these different commuters experience mobility or movement within the city space. Mobility or movement, therefore, becomes gendered or has class-based ramifications. The neuter-commuter assumption is thus challenged. Such an understanding enables us to challenge the anonymity which the ‘urban’ otherwise claims it provides over the rural. The rural is opposed to the urban wherein urban ushers a modern way of life, breaking ties of traditional social identities. A careful study of the transport systems through the traveling patterns and choices of the commuters, however, indicate that this does not hold true as even the same ‘public-space’ of the transport systems allocates different places to different kinds of commuters. The central argument made though the research done is therefore that infrastructure like urban-transport-systems has to be studied and examined as seen beyond just a physical structure. The various experiences of daily mobility of different kinds of commuters have to be taken into account in order to design and plan more inclusive transport systems.

Keywords: gender, infrastructure, mobility, urban-transport-systems

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91 The Psychological and Subjective Well-being of Ethiopian adults: Correlates, Explanations, and Cross-Cultural Constructions

Authors: Kassahun Tilahun

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The purpose of the study was two-fold: to examine the socio-demographic and psychological predictors of well-being and formulate a socio-culturally sound approach explaining the meaning and experience of psychological well-being among Ethiopian adults. Ryan and Deci’s Self-Determination Theory was duly considered as a theoretical framework of the study. The study followed a sequential explanatory mixed method design. Both quantitative and qualitative data were obtained, via scales and open-ended questionnaires, from 438 civil servants working in Addis Ababa. 30 interviews were also conducted to gain further information. An in-depth analysis of the reliability and validity of instruments was made before employing them to the main study. The results showed that adults were better off in both their scores of psychological and subjective well-being. Besides, adults’ well-being was found to be quite a function of their gender, age, marital status, educational level and household income. Males had a healthier psychological well-being status than females, where as females were better in their subjective well-being. A significant difference in psychological well-being was also observed between emerging and young adults, in favor of the young; and between cohabitated and married adults, married being advantageous. A significant difference in subjective well-being measures was also noticed among single, cohabitated and married adults, in favor of the married adults in all measures. The finding revealed that happiness level of adults decrease as their educational status increases while the reverse is true to psychological well-being. Besides, as adults’ household income boosts, so do their psychological well-being and satisfaction in life. The regression analysis also produced significant independent contributions of household income to overall well-being of adults. As such, subjective well-being was significantly predicted by dummy variable of sex and marital status. Likewise, the agreeableness, conscientiousness, neuroticism and openness dimensions of personality were notable significant predictors of adults’ psychological well-being where as extraversion and agreeableness were significant predictors of their subjective well-being. Religiosity was also a significant predictor of adults’ psychological well-being. Besides, adults’ well-being was significantly predicted by the interaction between conscientiousness and religiosity. From goal pursuit dimensions, attainment of extrinsic life goals was a significant predictor of both psychological and subjective well-being. Importance and attainment of intrinsic life goals also significantly predicts adults’ psychological well-being. Finally, the subjective well-being of adults was significantly predicted by environmental mastery, positive relations with others, self-acceptance and overall psychological well-being scores of adults. The thematic analysis identified five major categories of themes, which are essential in explaining the psychological well-being of Ethiopian adults. These were; socio-cultural harmony, social cohesion, security, competence and accomplishment, and the self. Detailed discussion on the rational for including these themes was made and appropriate implications were proposed. Researchers are encouraged to expand the findings of this research and in turn develop a suitable approach taping the psychological well-being of adults living in countries like Ethiopia.

Keywords: psychological well-being, subjective well-being, adulthood, Ethiopia

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90 Local Energy and Flexibility Markets to Foster Demand Response Services within the Energy Community

Authors: Eduardo Rodrigues, Gisela Mendes, José M. Torres, José E. Sousa

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In the sequence of the liberalisation of the electricity sector a progressive engagement of consumers has been considered and targeted by sector regulatory policies. With the objective of promoting market competition while protecting consumers interests, by transferring some of the upstream benefits to the end users while reaching a fair distribution of system costs, different market models to value consumers’ demand flexibility at the energy community level are envisioned. Local Energy and Flexibility Markets (LEFM) involve stakeholders interested in providing or procure local flexibility for community, services and markets’ value. Under the scope of DOMINOES, a European research project supported by Horizon 2020, the local market concept developed is expected to: • Enable consumers/prosumers empowerment, by allowing them to value their demand flexibility and Distributed Energy Resources (DER); • Value local liquid flexibility to support innovative distribution grid management, e.g., local balancing and congestion management, voltage control and grid restoration; • Ease the wholesale market uptake of DER, namely small-scale flexible loads aggregation as Virtual Power Plants (VPPs), facilitating Demand Response (DR) service provision; • Optimise the management and local sharing of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in Medium Voltage (MV) and Low Voltage (LV) grids, trough energy transactions within an energy community; • Enhance the development of energy markets through innovative business models, compatible with ongoing policy developments, that promote the easy access of retailers and other service providers to the local markets, allowing them to take advantage of communities’ flexibility to optimise their portfolio and subsequently their participation in external markets. The general concept proposed foresees a flow of market actions, technical validations, subsequent deliveries of energy and/or flexibility and balance settlements. Since the market operation should be dynamic and capable of addressing different requests, either prioritising balancing and prosumer services or system’s operation, direct procurement of flexibility within the local market must also be considered. This paper aims to highlight the research on the definition of suitable DR models to be used by the Distribution System Operator (DSO), in case of technical needs, and by the retailer, mainly for portfolio optimisation and solve unbalances. The models to be proposed and implemented within relevant smart distribution grid and microgrid validation environments, are focused on day-ahead and intraday operation scenarios, for predictive management and near-real-time control respectively under the DSO’s perspective. At local level, the DSO will be able to procure flexibility in advance to tackle different grid constrains (e.g., demand peaks, forecasted voltage and current problems and maintenance works), or during the operating day-to-day, to answer unpredictable constraints (e.g., outages, frequency deviations and voltage problems). Due to the inherent risks of their active market participation retailers may resort to DR models to manage their portfolio, by optimising their market actions and solve unbalances. The interaction among the market actors involved in the DR activation and in flexibility exchange is explained by a set of sequence diagrams for the DR modes of use from the DSO and the energy provider perspectives. • DR for DSO’s predictive management – before the operating day; • DR for DSO’s real-time control – during the operating day; • DR for retailer’s day-ahead operation; • DR for retailer’s intraday operation.

Keywords: demand response, energy communities, flexible demand, local energy and flexibility markets

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89 ‘Only Amharic or Leave Quick!’: Linguistic Genocide in the Western Tigray Region of Ethiopia

Authors: Merih Welay Welesilassie

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Language is a potent instrument that does not only serve the purpose of communication but also plays a pivotal role in shaping our cultural practices and identities. The right to choose one's language is a fundamental human right that helps to safeguard the integrity of both personal and communal identities. Language holds immense significance in Ethiopia, a nation with a diverse linguistic landscape that extends beyond mere communication to delineate administrative boundaries. Consequently, depriving Ethiopians of their linguistic rights represents a multifaceted punishment, more complex than food embargoes. In the aftermath of the civil war that shook Ethiopia in November 2020, displacing millions and resulting in the loss of hundreds of thousands of lives, concerns have been raised about the preservation of the indigenous Tigrayan language and culture. This is particularly true following the annexation of western Tigray into the Amhara region and the implementation of an Amharic-only language and culture education policy. This scholarly inquiry explores the intricacies surrounding the Amhara regional state's prohibition of Tigrayans' indigenous language and culture and the subsequent adoption of a monolingual and monocultural Amhara language and culture in western Tigray. The study adopts the linguistic genocide conceptual framework as an analytical tool to gain a deeper insight into the factors that contributed to and facilitated this significant linguistic and cultural shift. The research was conducted by interviewing ten teachers selected through a snowball sampling. Additionally, document analysis was performed to support the findings. The findings revealed that the push for linguistic and cultural assimilation was driven by various political and economic factors and the desire to promote a single language and culture policy. This process, often referred to as ‘Amharanization,’ aimed to homogenize the culture and language of the society. The Amhara authorities have enacted several measures in pursuit of their objectives, including the outlawing of the Tigrigna language, punishment for speaking Tigrigna, imposition of the Amhara language and culture, mandatory relocation, and even committing heinous acts that have inflicted immense physical and emotional suffering upon members of the Tigrayan community. Upon conducting a comprehensive analysis of the contextual factors, actions, intentions, and consequences, it has been posited that there may be instances of linguistic genocide taking place in the Western Tigray region. The present study sheds light on the severe consequences that could arise because of implementing monolingual and monocultural policies in multilingual areas. Through thoroughly scrutinizing the implications of such policies, this study provides insightful recommendations and directions for future research in this critical area.

Keywords: linguistic genocide, linguistic human right, mother tongue, Western Tigray

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88 Primary-Color Emitting Photon Energy Storage Nanophosphors for Developing High Contrast Latent Fingerprints

Authors: G. Swati, D. Haranath

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Commercially available long afterglow /persistent phosphors are proprietary materials and hence the exact composition and phase responsible for their luminescent characteristics such as initial intensity and afterglow luminescence time are not known. Further to generate various emission colors, commercially available persistence phosphors are physically blended with fluorescent organic dyes such as rodhamine, kiton and methylene blue etc. Blending phosphors with organic dyes results into complete color coverage in visible spectra, however with time, such phosphors undergo thermal and photo-bleaching. This results in the loss of their true emission color. Hence, the current work is dedicated studies on inorganic based thermally and chemically stable primary color emitting nanophosphors namely SrAl2O4:Eu2+, Dy3+, (CaZn)TiO3:Pr3+, and Sr2MgSi2O7:Eu2+, Dy3+. SrAl2O4: Eu2+, Dy3+ phosphor exhibits a strong excitation in UV and visible region (280-470 nm) with a broad emission peak centered at 514 nm is the characteristic emission of parity allowed 4f65d1→4f7 transitions of Eu2+ (8S7/2→2D5/2). Sunlight excitable Sr2MgSi2O7:Eu2+,Dy3+ nanophosphors emits blue color (464 nm) with Commercial international de I’Eclairage (CIE) coordinates to be (0.15, 0.13) with a color purity of 74 % with afterglow time of > 5 hours for dark adapted human eyes. (CaZn)TiO3:Pr3+ phosphor system possess high color purity (98%) which emits intense, stable and narrow red emission at 612 nm due intra 4f transitions (1D2 → 3H4) with afterglow time of 0.5 hour. Unusual property of persistence luminescence of these nanophoshphors supersedes background effects without losing sensitive information these nanophosphors offer several advantages of visible light excitation, negligible substrate interference, high contrast bifurcation of ridge pattern, non-toxic nature revealing finger ridge details of the fingerprints. Both level 1 and level 2 features from a fingerprint can be studied which are useful for used classification, indexing, comparison and personal identification. facile methodology to extract high contrast fingerprints on non-porous and porous substrates using a chemically inert, visible light excitable, and nanosized phosphorescent label in the dark has been presented. The chemistry of non-covalent physisorption interaction between the long afterglow phosphor powder and sweat residue in fingerprints has been discussed in detail. Real-time fingerprint development on porous and non-porous substrates has also been performed. To conclude, apart from conventional dark vision applications, as prepared primary color emitting afterglow phosphors are potentional candidate for developing high contrast latent fingerprints.

Keywords: fingerprints, luminescence, persistent phosphors, rare earth

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87 Thermo-Mechanical Processing Scheme to Obtain Micro-Duplex Structure Favoring Superplasticity in an As-Cast and Homogenized Medium Alloyed Nickel Base Superalloy

Authors: K. Sahithya, I. Balasundar, Pritapant, T. Raghua

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Ni-based superalloy with a nominal composition Ni-14% Cr-11% Co-5.8% Mo-2.4% Ti-2.4% Nb-2.8% Al-0.26 % Fe-0.032% Si-0.069% C (all in wt %) is used as turbine discs in a variety of aero engines. Like any other superalloy, the primary processing of the as-cast superalloy poses a major challenge due to its complex alloy chemistry. The challenge was circumvented by characterizing the different phases present in the material, optimizing the homogenization treatment, identifying a suitable thermomechanical processing window using dynamic materials modeling. The as-cast material was subjected to homogenization at 1200°C for a soaking period of 8 hours and quenched using different media. Water quenching (WQ) after homogenization resulted in very fine spherical γꞌ precipitates of sizes 30-50 nm, whereas furnace cooling (FC) after homogenization resulted in bimodal distribution of precipitates (primary gamma prime of size 300nm and secondary gamma prime of size 5-10 nm). MC type primary carbides that are stable till the melting point of the material were found in both WQ and FC samples. Deformation behaviour of both the materials below (1000-1100°C) and above gamma prime solvus (1100-1175°C) was evaluated by subjecting the material to series of compression tests at different constant true strain rates (0.0001/sec-1/sec). An in-detail examination of the precipitate dislocation interaction mechanisms carried out using TEM revealed precipitate shearing and Orowan looping as the mechanisms governing deformation in WQ and FC, respectively. Incoherent/semi coherent gamma prime precipitates in the case of FC material facilitates better workability of the material, whereas the coherent precipitates in WQ material contributed to higher resistance to deformation of the material. Both the materials exhibited discontinuous dynamic recrystallization (DDRX) above gamma prime solvus temperature. The recrystallization kinetics was slower in the case of WQ material. Very fine grain boundary carbides ( ≤ 300 nm) retarded the recrystallisation kinetics in WQ. Coarse carbides (1-5 µm) facilitate particle stimulated nucleation in FC material. The FC material was cogged (primary hot working) 1120˚C, 0.03/sec resulting in significant grain refinement, i.e., from 3000 μm to 100 μm. The primary processed material was subjected to intensive thermomechanical deformation subsequently by reducing the temperature by 50˚C in each processing step with intermittent heterogenization treatment at selected temperatures aimed at simultaneous coarsening of the gamma prime precipitates and refinement of the gamma matrix grains. The heterogeneous annealing treatment carried out, resulted in gamma grains of 10 μm and gamma prime precipitates of 1-2 μm. Further thermo mechanical processing of the material was carried out at 1025˚C to increase the homogeneity of the obtained micro-duplex structure.

Keywords: superalloys, dynamic material modeling, nickel alloys, dynamic recrystallization, superplasticity

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86 HyDUS Project; Seeking a Wonder Material for Hydrogen Storage

Authors: Monica Jong, Antonios Banos, Tom Scott, Chris Webster, David Fletcher

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Hydrogen, as a clean alternative to methane, is relatively easy to make, either from water using electrolysis or from methane using steam reformation. However, hydrogen is much trickier to store than methane, and without effective storage, it simply won’t pass muster as a suitable methane substitute. Physical storage of hydrogen is quite inefficient. Storing hydrogen as a compressed gas at pressures up to 900 times atmospheric is volumetrically inefficient and carries safety implications, whilst storing it as a liquid requires costly and constant cryogenic cooling to minus 253°C. This is where DU steps in as a possible solution. Across the periodic table, there are many different metallic elements that will react with hydrogen to form a chemical compound known as a hydride (or metal hydride). From a chemical perspective, the ‘king’ of the hydride forming metals is palladium because it offers the highest hydrogen storage volumetric capacity. However, this material is simply too expensive and scarce to be used in a scaled-up bulk hydrogen storage solution. Depleted Uranium is the second most volumetrically efficient hydride-forming metal after palladium. The UK has accrued a significant amount of DU because of manufacturing nuclear fuel for many decades, and that is currently without real commercial use. Uranium trihydride (UH3) contains three hydrogen atoms for every uranium atom and can chemically store hydrogen at ambient pressure and temperature at more than twice the density of pure liquid hydrogen for the same volume. To release the hydrogen from the hydride, all you do is heat it up. At temperatures above 250°C, the hydride starts to thermally decompose, releasing hydrogen as a gas and leaving the Uranium as a metal again. The reversible nature of this reaction allows the hydride to be formed and unformed again and again, enabling its use as a high-density hydrogen storage material which is already available in large quantities because of its stockpiling as a ‘waste’ by-product. Whilst the tritium storage credentials of Uranium have been rigorously proven at the laboratory scale and at the fusion demonstrator JET for over 30 years, there is a need to prove the concept for depleted uranium hydrogen storage (HyDUS) at scales towards that which is needed to flexibly supply our national power grid with energy. This is exactly the purpose of the HyDUS project, a collaborative venture involving EDF as the interested energy vendor, Urenco as the owner of the waste DU, and the University of Bristol with the UKAEA as the architects of the technology. The team will embark on building and proving the world’s first pilot scale demonstrator of bulk chemical hydrogen storage using depleted Uranium. Within 24 months, the team will attempt to prove both the technical and commercial viability of this technology as a longer duration energy storage solution for the UK. The HyDUS project seeks to enable a true by-product to wonder material story for depleted Uranium, demonstrating that we can think sustainably about unlocking the potential value trapped inside nuclear waste materials.

Keywords: hydrogen, long duration storage, storage, depleted uranium, HyDUS

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85 Seismotectonics and Seismology the North of Algeria

Authors: Djeddi Mabrouk

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The slow coming together between the Afro-Eurasia plates seems to be the main cause of the active deformation in the whole of North Africa which in consequence come true in Algeria with a large zone of deformation in an enough large limited band, southern through Saharan atlas and northern through tell atlas. Maghrebin and Atlassian Chain along North Africa are the consequence of this convergence. In junction zone, we have noticed a compressive regime NW-SE with a creases-faults structure and structured overthrust. From a geological point of view the north part of Algeria is younger then Saharan platform, it’s changing so unstable and constantly in movement, it’s characterized by creases openly reversed, overthrusts and reversed faults, and undergo perpetually complex movement vertically and horizontally. On structural level the north of Algeria it's a part of erogenous alpine peri-Mediterranean and essentially the tertiary age It’s spread from east to the west of Algeria over 1200 km.This oogenesis is extended from east to west on broadband of 100 km.The alpine chain is shaped by 3 domains: tell atlas in north, high plateaus in mid and Saharan atlas in the south In extreme south we find the Saharan platform which is made of Precambrian bedrock recovered by Paleozoic practically not deformed. The Algerian north and the Saharan platform are separated by an important accident along of 2000km from Agadir (Morocco) to Gabes (Tunisian). The seismic activity is localized essentially in a coastal band in the north of Algeria shaped by tell atlas, high plateaus, Saharan atlas. Earthquakes are limited in the first 20km of the earth's crust; they are caused by movements along faults of inverted orientation NE-SW or sliding tectonic plates. The center region characterizes Strong Earthquake Activity who locates mainly in the basin of Mitidja (age Neogene).The southern periphery (Atlas Blidéen) constitutes the June, more Important seism genic sources in the city of Algiers and east (Boumerdes region). The North East Region is also part of the tellian area, but it is characterized by a different strain in other parts of northern Algeria. The deformation is slow and low to moderate seismic activity. Seismic activity is related to the tectonic-slip earthquake. The most pronounced is that of 27 October 1985 (Constantine) of seismic moment magnitude Mw = 5.9. North-West region is quite active and also artificial seismic hypocenters which do not exceed 20km. The deep seismicity is concentrated mainly a narrow strip along the edge of Quaternary and Neogene basins Intra Mountains along the coast. The most violent earthquakes in this region are the earthquake of Oran in 1790 and earthquakes Orléansville (El Asnam in 1954 and 1980).

Keywords: alpine chain, seismicity north Algeria, earthquakes in Algeria, geophysics, Earth

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84 Structure Domains Tuning Magnetic Anisotropy and Motivating Novel Electric Behaviors in LaCoO₃ Films

Authors: Dechao Meng, Yongqi Dong, Qiyuan Feng, Zhangzhang Cui, Xiang Hu, Haoliang Huang, Genhao Liang, Huanhua Wang, Hua Zhou, Hawoong Hong, Jinghua Guo, Qingyou Lu, Xiaofang Zhai, Yalin Lu

Abstract:

Great efforts have been taken to reveal the intrinsic origins of emerging ferromagnetism (FM) in strained LaCoO₃ (LCO) films. However, some macro magnetic performances of LCO are still not well understood and even controversial, such as magnetic anisotropy. Determining and understanding magnetic anisotropy might help to find the true causes of FM in turn. Perpendicular magnetic anisotropy (PMA) was the first time to be directly observed in high-quality LCO films with different thickness. The in-plane (IP) and out of plane (OOP) remnant magnetic moment ratio of 30 unit cell (u.c.) films is as large as 20. The easy axis lays in the OOP direction with an IP/OOP coercive field ratio of 10. What's more, the PMA could be simply tuned by changing the thickness. With the thickness increases, the IP/OOP magnetic moment ratio remarkably decrease with magnetic easy axis changing from OOP to IP. Such a huge and tunable PMA performance exhibit strong potentials in fundamental researches or applications. What causes PMA is the first concern. More OOP orbitals occupation may be one of the micro reasons of PMA. A cluster-like magnetic domain pattern was found in 30 u.c. with no obvious color contrasts, similar to that of LaAlO₃/SrTiO₃ films. And the nanosize domains could not be totally switched even at a large OOP magnetic field of 23 T. It indicates strong IP characters or none OOP magnetism of some clusters. The IP magnetic domains might influence the magnetic performance and help to form PMA. Meanwhile some possible nonmagnetic clusters might be the reason why the measured moments of LCO films are smaller than the calculated values 2 μB/Co, one of the biggest confusions in LCO films.What tunes PMA seems much more interesting. Totally different magnetic domain patterns were found in 180 u.c. films with cluster magnetic domains surrounded by < 110 > cross-hatch lines. These lines were regarded as structure domain walls (DWs) determined by 3D reciprocal space mapping (RSM). Two groups of in-plane features with fourfold symmetry were observed near the film diffraction peaks in (002) 3D-RSM. One is along < 110 > directions with a larger intensity, which is well match the lines on the surfaces. The other is much weaker and along < 100 > directions, which is from the normal lattice titling of films deposited on cubic substrates. The < 110 > domain features obtained from (103) and (113) 3D-RSMs exhibit similar evolution of the DWs percentages and magnetic behavior. Structure domains and domain walls are believed to tune PMA performances by transform more IP magnetic moments to OOP. Last but not the least, thick films with lots of structure domains exhibit different electrical transport behaviors. A metal-to-insulator transition (MIT) and an angular dependent negative magnetic resistivity were observed near 150 K, higher than FM transition temperature but similar to that of spin-orbital coupling related 1/4 order diffraction peaks.

Keywords: structure domain, magnetic anisotropy, magnetic domain, domain wall, 3D-RSM, strain

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83 R&D Diffusion and Productivity in a Globalized World: Country Capabilities in an MRIO Framework

Authors: S. Jimenez, R.Duarte, J.Sanchez-Choliz, I. Villanua

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There is a certain consensus in economic literature about the factors that have influenced in historical differences in growth rates observed between developed and developing countries. However, it is less clear what elements have marked different paths of growth in developed economies in recent decades. R&D has always been seen as one of the major sources of technological progress, and productivity growth, which is directly influenced by technological developments. Following recent literature, we can say that ‘innovation pushes the technological frontier forward’ as well as encourage future innovation through the creation of externalities. In other words, productivity benefits from innovation are not fully appropriated by innovators, but it also spread through the rest of the economies encouraging absorptive capacities, what have become especially important in a context of increasing fragmentation of production This paper aims to contribute to this literature in two ways, first, exploring alternative indexes of R&D flows embodied in inter-country, inter-sectorial flows of good and services (as approximation to technology spillovers) capturing structural and technological characteristic of countries and, second, analyzing the impact of direct and embodied R&D on the evolution of labor productivity at the country/sector level in recent decades. The traditional way of calculation through a multiregional input-output framework assumes that all countries have the same capabilities to absorb technology, but it is not, each one has different structural features and, this implies, different capabilities as part of literature, claim. In order to capture these differences, we propose to use a weight based on specialization structure indexes; one related with the specialization of countries in high-tech sectors and the other one based on a dispersion index. We propose these two measures because, as far as we understood, country capabilities can be captured through different ways; countries specialization in knowledge-intensive sectors, such as Chemicals or Electrical Equipment, or an intermediate technology effort across different sectors. Results suggest the increasing importance of country capabilities while increasing the trade openness. Besides, if we focus in the country rankings, we can observe that with high-tech weighted R&D embodied countries as China, Taiwan and Germany arose the top five despite not having the highest intensities of R&D expenditure, showing the importance of country capabilities. Additionally, through a fixed effects panel data model we show that, in fact, R&D embodied is important to explain labor productivity increases, in fact, even more that direct R&D investments. This is reflecting that globalization is more important than has been said until now. However, it is true that almost all analysis done in relation with that consider the effect of t-1 direct R&D intensity over economic growth. Nevertheless, from our point of view R&D evolve as a delayed flow and it is necessary some time to be able to see its effects on the economy, as some authors have already claimed. Our estimations tend to corroborate this hypothesis obtaining a gap between 4-5 years.

Keywords: economic growth, embodied, input-output, technology

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82 The Development of Modernist Chinese Architecture from the Perspective of Cultural Regionalism in Taiwan: Spatial Practice by the Fieldoffice Architects

Authors: Yilei Yu

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Modernism, emerging in the Western world of the 20th century, attempted to create a universal international style, which pulled the architectural and social systems created by classicism back to an initial pure state. However, out of the introspection of the Modernism, Regionalism attempted to restore a humanistic environment and create flexible buildings during the 1950s. Meanwhile, as the first generation of architects came back, the wind of the Regionalism blew to Taiwan. However, with the increasing of political influence and the tightening of free creative space, from the second half of the 1950s to the 1980s, the "real" Regional Architecture, which should have taken roots in Taiwan, becomes the "fake" Regional Architecture filled with the oriental charm. Through the Comparative Method, which includes description, interpretation, juxtaposition, and comparison, this study analyses the difference of the style of the Modernist Chinese Architecture between the period before the 1980s and the after. The paper aims at exploring the development of Regionalism Architecture in Taiwan, which includes three parts. First, the burgeoning period of the "modernist Chinese architecture" in Taiwan was the beginning of the Chinese Nationalist Party's coming to Taiwan to consolidate political power. The architecture of the "Ming and Qing Dynasty Palace Revival Style" dominated the architectural circles in Taiwan. These superficial "regional buildings" have nearly no combination with the local customs of Taiwan, which is difficult to evoke the social identity. Second, in the late 1970s, the second generation of architects headed by Baode Han began focusing on the research and preservation of traditional Taiwanese architecture, and creating buildings combined the terroirs of Taiwan through the imitation of styles. However, some scholars have expressed regret that very few regionalist architectural works that appeared in the 1980s can respond specifically to regional conditions and forms of construction. Instead, most of them are vocabulary-led representations. Third, during the 1990s, by the end of the period of martial law, community building gradually emerged, which made the object of Taiwan's architectural concern gradually extended to the folk and ethnic groups. In the Yilan area, there are many architects who care about the local environment, such as the Field office Architects. Compared with the hollow regionality of the passionate national spirits that emerged during the martial law period, the local practice of the architect team in Yilan can better link the real local environmental life and reflect the true regionality. In conclusion, with the local practice case of the huge construction team in Yilan area, this paper focuses on the Spatial Practice by the Field office Architects to explore the spatial representation of the space and the practical enlightenment in the process of modernist Chinese architecture development in Taiwan.

Keywords: regionalism, modernism, Chinese architecture, political landscape, spatial representation

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81 The Role of People in Continuing Airworthiness: A Case Study Based on the Royal Thai Air Force

Authors: B. Ratchaneepun, N.S. Bardell

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It is recognized that people are the main drivers in almost all the processes that affect airworthiness assurance. This is especially true in the area of aircraft maintenance, which is an essential part of continuing airworthiness. This work investigates what impact English language proficiency, the intersection of the military and Thai cultures, and the lack of initial and continuing human factors training have on the work performance of maintenance personnel in the Royal Thai Air Force (RTAF). A quantitative research method based on a cross-sectional survey was used to gather data about these three key aspects of “people” in a military airworthiness environment. 30 questions were developed addressing the crucial topics of English language proficiency, impact of culture, and human factors training. The officers and the non-commissioned officers (NCOs) who work for the Aeronautical Engineering Divisions in the RTAF comprised the survey participants. The survey data were analysed to support various hypotheses by using a t-test method. English competency in the RTAF is very important since all of the service manuals for Thai military aircraft are written in English. Without such competency, it is difficult for maintenance staff to perform tasks and correctly interpret the relevant maintenance manual instructions; any misunderstandings could lead to potential accidents. The survey results showed that the officers appreciated the importance of this more than the NCOs, who are the people actually doing the hands-on maintenance work. Military culture focuses on the success of a given mission, and leverages the power distance between the lower and higher ranks. In Thai society, a power distance also exists between younger and older citizens. In the RTAF, such a combination tends to inhibit a just reporting culture and hence hinders safety. The survey results confirmed this, showing that the older people and higher ranks involved with RTAF aircraft maintenance believe that the workplace has a positive safety culture and climate, whereas the younger people and lower ranks think the opposite. The final area of consideration concerned human factors training and non-technical skills training. The survey revealed that those participants who had previously attended such courses appreciated its value and were aware of its benefits in daily life. However, currently there is no regulation in the RTAF to mandate recurrent training to maintain such knowledge and skills. The findings from this work suggest that the people involved in assuring the continuing airworthiness of the RTAF would benefit from: (i) more rigorous requirements and standards in the recruitment, initial training and continuation training regarding English competence; (ii) the development of a strong safety culture that exploits the uniqueness of both the military culture and the Thai culture; and (iii) providing more initial and recurrent training in human factors and non-technical skills.

Keywords: aircraft maintenance, continuing airworthiness, military culture, people, Royal Thai Air Force

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80 Implementation of Green Deal Policies and Targets in Energy System Optimization Models: The TEMOA-Europe Case

Authors: Daniele Lerede, Gianvito Colucci, Matteo Nicoli, Laura Savoldi

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The European Green Deal is the first internationally agreed set of measures to contrast climate change and environmental degradation. Besides the main target of reducing emissions by at least 55% by 2030, it sets the target of accompanying European countries through an energy transition to make the European Union into a modern, resource-efficient, and competitive net-zero emissions economy by 2050, decoupling growth from the use of resources and ensuring a fair adaptation of all social categories to the transformation process. While the general purpose to allow the realization of the purposes of the Green Deal already dates back to 2019, strategies and policies keep being developed coping with recent circumstances and achievements. However, general long-term measures like the Circular Economy Action Plan, the proposals to shift from fossil natural gas to renewable and low-carbon gases, in particular biomethane and hydrogen, and to end the sale of gasoline and diesel cars by 2035, will all have significant effects on energy supply and demand evolution across the next decades. The interactions between energy supply and demand over long-term time frames are usually assessed via energy system models to derive useful insights for policymaking and to address technological choices and research and development. TEMOA-Europe is a newly developed energy system optimization model instance based on the minimization of the total cost of the system under analysis, adopting a technologically integrated, detailed, and explicit formulation and considering the evolution of the system in partial equilibrium in competitive markets with perfect foresight. TEMOA-Europe is developed on the TEMOA platform, an open-source modeling framework totally implemented in Python, therefore ensuring third-party verification even on large and complex models. TEMOA-Europe is based on a single-region representation of the European Union and EFTA countries on a time scale between 2005 and 2100, relying on a set of assumptions for socio-economic developments based on projections by the International Energy Outlook and a large technological dataset including 7 sectors: the upstream and power sectors for the production of all energy commodities and the end-use sectors, including industry, transport, residential, commercial and agriculture. TEMOA-Europe also includes an updated hydrogen module considering its production, storage, transportation, and utilization. Besides, it can rely on a wide set of innovative technologies, ranging from nuclear fusion and electricity plants equipped with CCS in the power sector to electrolysis-based steel production processes and steel in the industrial sector – with a techno-economic characterization based on public literature – to produce insightful energy scenarios and especially to cope with the very long analyzed time scale. The aim of this work is to examine in detail the scheme of measures and policies for the realization of the purposes of the Green Deal and to transform them into a set of constraints and new socio-economic development pathways. Based on them, TEMOA-Europe will be used to produce and comparatively analyze scenarios to assess the consequences of Green Deal-related measures on the future evolution of the energy mix over the whole energy system in an economic optimization environment.

Keywords: European Green Deal, energy system optimization modeling, scenario analysis, TEMOA-Europe

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79 Migratory Diaspora: The Media and the Human Element

Authors: Peter R. Alfieri

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The principal aim of this research and presentation is to give global and personal perspective of the migratory diaspora and how it is perceived by a substantial majority that relies on the media’s portrayal of migratory movements. Since its Greek origins the word “diaspora” has taken on several connotations, but none has surpassed its use in regard to the human element; because since before the dawn of history, man has had to struggle for survival. That survival was a struggle against the elements and other natural enemies, but none as tenacious and relentless as other men. Many have used the term diaspora to describe the spread of certain ethnic groups resulting in new generations in new places; but has the human diaspora been as haphazard as that of spores? The quest for survival has spawned migrations that are not quite that simple, even though it has several similarities to plant spores or dandelion seeds flying throughout the atmosphere. Man kind has constantly migrated in search of food, shelter, and safety. When they were able to find food and shelter, they would inform others who would venture to the new place. Information, whether through word of mouth, written material, or visual communications, has been a moving force in man’s life; and it spurred migrants in their quest for better environments. Today we pride ourselves in being able to communicate instantly with anyone anywhere in the world, and we are privileged to see most of what is happening in the world thanks to the highly developed modern media. Is Media a “wind/force” instrumental in propelling the diaspora throughout the world? The media has been the tool that has incentive many migratory, but unfortunately it is also the means responsible for many misconceptions regarding migrants and their hosts. Has the Media presented an unbiased view of the migrant or has it been the means that generated negative or prejudiced views of the migrant and, perhaps, the host environment? Some examples were easily seen in 19th century the United States where they advertised the following, “Help needed, Irish need not apply”. How do immigrants circumvent latent barriers that are not as obvious as the ones just mentioned? Some immigrants return home and have children that decide to emigrate. It is a perpetual cycle in the search for self-improvement. The stories that are brought back might be inspiration for the new generation of emigrants. Poverty, hunger, and political turmoil spur most migrations. The majority learn from others or through the media about certain destinations that will provide one or several opportunities to improve their existence. Many of those migrants suffer untold hardships to succeed. When they succeed, they provide a great incentive for their children to obtain an education or skill that will insure them a better life. Although the new environment may contribute greatly to a successful career, most immigrants do not forget their own struggle. They see the media’s portrayal of other migrants from all over the globe. Some try to communicate to others the true feelings of despair felt by immigrants, because they are all brothers and sisters in the perennial struggle for a better life. “HOPE” for a better life drives the immigrant toward the unknown and it has helped overcome the obstacles that present themselves challenging every newcomer. Hope and perseverance strengthen the resolve of the migrant in his struggle to survive.

Keywords: media, migration, heath, education, obstacles

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78 Providing Support On-Time: Need to Establish De-Radicalization Hotlines

Authors: Ashir Ahmed

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Peacekeeping is a collective responsibility of governments, law enforcement agencies, communities, families, and individuals. Moreover, the complex nature of peacekeeping activities requires a holistic and collaborative approach where various community sectors work together to form collective strategies that are likely to be more effective than strategies designed and delivered in isolation. Similarly, it is important to learn from past programs to evaluate the initiatives that have worked well and the areas that need further improvement. Review of recent peacekeeping initiatives suggests that there have been tremendous efforts and resources put in place to deal with the emerging threat of terrorism, radicalization and violent extremism through number of de-radicalization programs. Despite various attempts in designing and delivering successful programs for deradicalization, the threat of people being radicalized is growing more than ever before. This research reviews the prominent de-radicalization programs to draw an understanding of their strengths and weaknesses. Some of the weaknesses in the existing programs include. Inaccessibility: Limited resources, geographical location of potential participants (for offline programs), inaccessibility or inability to use various technologies (for online programs) makes it difficult for people to participate in de-radicalization programs. Timeliness: People might need to wait for a program on a set date/time to get the required information and to get their questions answered. This is particularly true for offline programs. Lack of trust: The privacy issues and lack of trust between participants and program organizers are another hurdle in the success of de-radicalization programs. The fear of sharing participants information with organizations (such as law enforcement agencies) without their consent led them not to participate in these programs. Generalizability: Majority of these programs are very generic in nature and do not cater the specific needs of an individual. Participants in these programs may feel that the contents are irrelevant to their individual situations and hence feel disconnected with purpose of the programs. To address the above-mentioned weaknesses, this research developed a framework that recommends some improvements in de-radicalization programs. One of the recommendations is to offer 24/7, secure, private and online hotline (also referred as helpline) for the people who have any question, concern or situation to discuss with someone who is qualified (a counsellor) to deal with people who are vulnerable to be radicalized. To make these hotline services viable and sustainable, the existing organizations offering support for depression, anxiety or suicidal ideation could additionally host these services. These helplines should be available via phone, the internet, social media and in-person. Since these services will be embedded within existing and well-known services, they would likely to get more visibility and promotion. The anonymous and secure conversation between a person and a counsellor would ensure that a person can discuss the issues without being afraid of information sharing with any third party – without his/her consent. The next stage of this project would include the operationalization of the framework by collaborating with other organizations to host de-radicalization hotlines and would assess the effectiveness of such initiatives.

Keywords: de-radicalization, framework, hotlines, peacekeeping

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77 Molecular Dynamics Simulation of Realistic Biochar Models with Controlled Microporosity

Authors: Audrey Ngambia, Ondrej Masek, Valentina Erastova

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Biochar is an amorphous carbon-rich material generated from the pyrolysis of biomass with multifarious properties and functionality. Biochar has shown proven applications in the treatment of flue gas and organic and inorganic pollutants in soil and water/wastewater as a result of its multiple surface functional groups and porous structures. These properties have also shown potential in energy storage and carbon capture. The availability of diverse sources of biomass to produce biochar has increased interest in it as a sustainable and environmentally friendly material. The properties and porous structures of biochar vary depending on the type of biomass and high heat treatment temperature (HHT). Biochars produced at HHT between 400°C – 800°C generally have lower H/C and O/C ratios, higher porosities, larger pore sizes and higher surface areas with temperature. While all is known experimentally, there is little knowledge on the porous role structure and functional groups play on processes occurring at the atomistic scale, which are extremely important for the optimization of biochar for application, especially in the adsorption of gases. Atomistic simulations methods have shown the potential to generate such amorphous materials; however, most of the models available are composed of only carbon atoms or graphitic sheets, which are very dense or with simple slit pores, all of which ignore the important role of heteroatoms such as O, N, S and pore morphologies. Hence, developing realistic models that integrate these parameters are important to understand their role in governing adsorption mechanisms that will aid in guiding the design and optimization of biochar materials for target applications. In this work, molecular dynamics simulations in the isobaric ensemble are used to generate realistic biochar models taking into account experimentally determined H/C, O/C, N/C, aromaticity, micropore size range, micropore volumes and true densities of biochars. A pore generation approach was developed using virtual atoms, which is a Lennard-Jones sphere of varying van der Waals radius and softness. Its interaction via a soft-core potential with the biochar matrix allows the creation of pores with rough surfaces while varying the van der Waals radius parameters gives control to the pore-size distribution. We focused on microporosity, creating average pore sizes of 0.5 - 2 nm in diameter and pore volumes in the range of 0.05 – 1 cm3/g, which corresponds to experimental gas adsorption micropore sizes of amorphous porous biochars. Realistic biochar models with surface functionalities, micropore size distribution and pore morphologies were developed, and they could aid in the study of adsorption processes in confined micropores.

Keywords: biochar, heteroatoms, micropore size, molecular dynamics simulations, surface functional groups, virtual atoms

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76 Generic Early Warning Signals for Program Student Withdrawals: A Complexity Perspective Based on Critical Transitions and Fractals

Authors: Sami Houry

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Complex systems exhibit universal characteristics as they near a tipping point. Among them are common generic early warning signals which precede critical transitions. These signals include: critical slowing down in which the rate of recovery from perturbations decreases over time; an increase in the variance of the state variable; an increase in the skewness of the state variable; an increase in the autocorrelations of the state variable; flickering between different states; and an increase in spatial correlations over time. The presence of the signals has management implications, as the identification of the signals near the tipping point could allow management to identify intervention points. Despite the applications of the generic early warning signals in various scientific fields, such as fisheries, ecology and finance, a review of literature did not identify any applications that address the program student withdrawal problem at the undergraduate distance universities. This area could benefit from the application of generic early warning signals as the program withdrawal rate amongst distance students is higher than the program withdrawal rate at face-to-face conventional universities. This research specifically assessed the generic early warning signals through an intensive case study of undergraduate program student withdrawal at a Canadian distance university. The university is non-cohort based due to its system of continuous course enrollment where students can enroll in a course at the beginning of every month. The assessment of the signals was achieved through the comparison of the incidences of generic early warning signals among students who withdrew or simply became inactive in their undergraduate program of study, the true positives, to the incidences of the generic early warning signals among graduates, the false positives. This was achieved through significance testing. Research findings showed support for the signal pertaining to the rise in flickering which is represented in the increase in the student’s non-pass rates prior to withdrawing from a program; moderate support for the signals of critical slowing down as reflected in the increase in the time a student spends in a course; and moderate support for the signals on increase in autocorrelation and increase in variance in the grade variable. The findings did not support the signal on the increase in skewness of the grade variable. The research also proposes a new signal based on the fractal-like characteristic of student behavior. The research also sought to extend knowledge by investigating whether the emergence of a program withdrawal status is self-similar or fractal-like at multiple levels of observation, specifically the program level and the course level. In other words, whether the act of withdrawal at the program level is also present at the course level. The findings moderately supported self-similarity as a potential signal. Overall, the assessment of the signals suggests that the signals, with the exception with the increase of skewness, could be utilized as a predictive management tool and potentially add one more tool, the fractal-like characteristic of withdrawal, as an additional signal in addressing the student program withdrawal problem.

Keywords: critical transitions, fractals, generic early warning signals, program student withdrawal

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