Search results for: multivariate distribution theory

Authors: E. Gouya Bozorg

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The issue of ranking of sports teams, in particular soccer teams is of primary importance in the professional sports. However, it is still based on classical statistics and models outside of area of mathematics. Rigorous mathematics and then statistics despite the expectation held of them have not been able to effectively engage in the issue of ranking. It is something that requires serious pathology. The purpose of this study is to change the approach to get closer to mathematics proper for using in the ranking. We recommend using theoretical mathematics as a good option because it can hermeneutically obtain the theoretical concepts and criteria needful for the ranking from everyday language of a League. We have proposed a framework that puts the issue of ranking into a new space that we have applied in soccer as a case study. This is an experimental and theoretical study on the issue of ranking in a professional soccer league based on theoretical mathematics, followed by theoretical statistics. First, we showed the theoretical definition of constant number Є = 1.33 or ‘golden number’ of a soccer league. Then, we have defined the ‘efficiency of a team’ by this number and formula of μ = (Pts / (k.Є)) – 1, in which Pts is a point obtained by a team in k number of games played. Moreover, K.Є index has been used to show the theoretical median line in the league table and to compare top teams and bottom teams. Theoretical coefficient of σ= 1 / (1+ (Ptx / Ptxn)) has also been defined that in every match between the teams x, xn, with respect to the ability of a team and the points of both of them Ptx, Ptxn, and it gives a performance point resulting in a special ranking for the League. And it has been useful particularly in evaluating the performance of weaker teams. The current theory has been examined for the statistical data of 4 major European Leagues during the period of 1998-2014. Results of this study showed that the issue of ranking is dependent on appropriate theoretical indicators of a League. These indicators allowed us to find different forms of ranking of teams in a league including the ‘special table’ of a league. Furthermore, on this basis the issue of a record of team has been revised and amended. In addition, the theory of ranking can be used to compare and classify the different leagues and tournaments. Experimental results obtained from archival statistics of major professional leagues in the world in the past two decades have confirmed the theory. This topic introduces a new theory for ranking of a soccer league. Moreover, this theory can be used to compare different leagues and tournaments.

Keywords: efficiency of a team, ranking, special table, theoretical mathematic

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Authors: Javed Younas

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Fiscal challenges pervade the electricity sector in many developing countries. Low bill payment and high theft mean utility customers have little incentive to conserve. It also means electricity distribution companies have less to invest in infrastructure maintenance, modernization, and technical upgrades. The low-quality electricity services can result impair the economic benefits from connections to the electrical grid. We study the impacts of two interventions implemented in Karachi, Pakistan, with the goal of reducing distribution losses and increasing revenue recovery: infrastructure improvements that made illegal connections physically more difficult and institutional innovations designed to increase communities’ trust in and cooperation with the utility. Using differences in implementation timing across space, we estimate the interventions’ impacts before the COVID-19 pandemic and their role in mitigating the pandemic’s effects on electricity services. Results indicate that the infrastructure improvements reduced losses, as well as the electricity delivered to the distribution system, a proxy for a generation. The institutional innovations significantly impacted revenue recovery, but not losses in their initial months; however, the efforts mitigated the pandemic’s negative effect on the utility finances.

Keywords: electricity, infrastructure, losses, revenue recovery

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Authors: Mengjie Liu

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This essay mainly analyses the representation of the Apollo and Dionysus spirits in Hermann Hesse’s novel “Steppenwolf.” This analysis adopts a theoretical approach based on Fredrich Nietzsche’s theory of the two separate art worlds, dream and intoxication, which corresponds to the two art deities, Apollo and Dionysus. The essay will discuss Friedrich Nietzsche’s art and aesthetic theory of dream and intoxication in the first part. Then the essay will elaborate on the representation of the Apollo spirit and dream in “Steppenwolf” in the second section from two aspects: (1) Harry Haller’s (the main character) self-recognition and semblance with Hermina. (2) The realization of Hermina’s prophecy of the dream. Then the essay will analyze the representation of the Dionysus spirit and the intoxication in the third part by demonstrating Harry Haller’s self-forgetting and melting into the crowd. The essay will combine the two spirits in the fourth section and discuss the relationship between dream and intoxication as the stimulator (dream) and the realizing (intoxication). This essay takes Nietzsche’s theory as the basic foundation while also drawing sources from psychological analysis theories and other literature sources.

Keywords: dream, intoxication, Nietzsche, Steppenwolf

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Authors: Lin Chih-Ken

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This paper explores the A Li Shan hotel of Taiwan during the Japanese occupation period, after over a hundred years of time, it has been handed over to the hotel managing enterprise to retain the historic building and the culture. Applying the innovative marketing strategies, coordinate the local government traveling policy then combined local tea agriculture and forestry specialty integrated marketing, to create the special hotel located in the Alishan National Scenic Area with the characteristics of landscape, innovative marketing and history, to attract domestic tourism and visitors around the world. This study interview the hotel owner, managers, employees and guests, in addition to collected message feedback from reservation website, to apply Ambidexterity Marketing Theory and Resource Base Theory to analyze the main impact factors. The conclusion showed that the integration of several key factors and make good use of resource strength generate heterogeneous product characteristics to attracting wider range of visitors.

Keywords: heritage tourism, historic hotel, marketing ambidexterity, resource base theory

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Authors: Yosiya Chanta, Jantrararuk Tovaranont

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Species distribution model (SDMs) is one of the powerful tools used to create a suitability map used to predict and address ecology and conservation approaches. MaxEnt is a tool used among SDMs that is highly popular because it only uses presence data. Zanthoxylum rhetsa has more than 200 species distributed in the tropics. Most commonly found in cooler forest environments, there are 8-9 species found in Thailand. In northern Thailand, 3 varieties are commonly grown: Zanthoxylum myriacanthum, Zanthoxylum rhetsa and Zanthoxylum armatum. In the northern regions, these varieties are mainly used as a spice and as a cooking ingredient. MaxEnt has been used in this study to predict potential habitats for these Zanthoxylums in current and future times (2041and 2060). Suitable habitats are predicted using data from the EC-Earth3-Veg general circulation model with 19 climatic variables. The results indicate that the suitability of future habitats of Zanthoxylum rhetsa may expand into the lower northern part of Thailand. The habitat suitability map obtained from the MaxEnt tool shows that the Precipitation of Wettest Quarter (Bio16) is the most important climatic variable influencing the current and future spread of Zanthoxylum rhetsa.

Keywords: MaxEnt, Zanthoxylum rhets, species distribution modelling, climate change

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Authors: Dhiraj Biswas, Chaitali Ray

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A modified refined higher order zigzag theory has been developed in this paper in order to compute the accurate interlaminar stresses within hybrid laminates. Warping has significant effect on the mechanical behaviour of the laminates. To the best of author(s)’ knowledge the stress analysis of hybrid laminates is not reported in the published literature. The present paper aims to develop a new C0 continuous element based on the refined higher order zigzag theories considering warping effect in the formulation of hybrid laminates. The eight noded isoparametric plate bending element is used for the flexural analysis of laminated composite plates to study the performance of the proposed model. The transverse shear stresses are computed by using the differential equations of stress equilibrium in a simplified manner. A computer code has been developed using MATLAB software package. Several numerical examples are solved to assess the performance of the present finite element model based on the proposed higher order zigzag theory by comparing the present results with three-dimensional elasticity solutions. The present formulation is validated by comparing the results obtained from the relevant literature. An extensive parametric study has been carried out on the hybrid laminates with varying percentage of materials and angle of orientation of fibre content.

Keywords: hybrid laminate, Interlaminar stress, refined higher order zigzag theory, warping effect

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Authors: Dorra Gherib

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This article explores in depth the technological innovations by the Top Managements of banks in the Tunisian banking sector. The framework of this research is based on an amalgamation of four theories related to the decision of adopting technological innovations: The Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA), the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), and Diffusion of Innovation (DI). The result of our qualitative study highlights four variables which influence the attitude of the Top Managements towards the adoption of internet banking: Relative advantage, Perceived Ease of Use, compatibility and Perceived risk.

Keywords: top management, attitude, internet banking, TRA, TAM, TPB, DI

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Authors: Sukhvinder Kaur, Jayanta Bora, Ashok Agarwal, Sangeeta Kaul

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Background: HIV and STI transmission can be prevented if condoms are used properly, but condom tear may lead to infections even if are used consistently. Studies reveal high rates of condom breakage among Female Sex Workers (FSWs). USAID PHFI-PIPPSE is piloting a prevention model among high risk groups at Thane district of Maharashtra, India by implementing prevention and advocacy efforts for such risk behaviors. The current analysis highlights the correlates of condom breakage among FSWs from Thane. Method: A Behavioral Tracking Survey was conducted in 2014-15 among 503 FSWs through probability-based two stage random sampling from 3,660 FSWs at 100 hotspots, to understand levels of high risk behaviors, awareness and exposure to prevention programs. Bi-variate and multivariate-logistic regression methods used to assess the association of condom breakage while having sex with age, STI occurrence, anal sex with clients and alcohol consumption. Only self-reported STIs (Genital sore/ulcer, yellowish/ greenish discharge from vagina with/without foul smell, lower abdominal pain without diarrhea/dysentery or menses) were considered. Major Findings: Results depicted FSWs who reported condom breakage while having sex with any type of partner (paying clients, non-paying partners and other than main partner husband/boyfriend) had significantly high number of STIs (42.3% vs 16.9 %, P, 0.000) and had started sexual relationship in <16 years of age (31.0% vs 16.4 %, P, 0.000). Multivariate analysis after controlling the age at sex, knowledge about HIV and literacy, highlighted significantly higher odds of condom breakage among FSWs who have reported currently suffering with STI [AOR 2.91, 95% CI 1.75 - 4.83; P, 0.000]; who had anal sex with their paying client [AOR 2.59, 95% CI 1.59 - 4.19; P, 0.000]; and who consumed alcohol in the last 12 months [AOR 1.89, 95% CI 1.01 - 3.53; P, 0.047]. Conclusion: Risky behavior like anal sex with paying clients and impact of alcohol while having sex are main factors for condom breakage among young sex workers; and condom breakage leads to STIs. Hence, program interventions should address measures for prevention of condom breakage for HIV/STI prevention.

Keywords: female sex workers, condom breakage, anal sex, young sex workers

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Authors: Rachid Belhachemi, Pierre Rostan, Alexandra Rostan

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This paper develops a discrete-time option pricing model for index options. The model consists of two key ingredients. First, daily stock return innovations are driven by a continuous hidden threshold mixed skew-normal (HTSN) distribution which generates conditional non-normality that is needed to fit daily index return. The most important feature of the HTSN is the inclusion of a latent state variable with a continuum of states, unlike the traditional mixture distributions where the state variable is discrete with little number of states. The HTSN distribution belongs to the class of univariate probability distributions where parameters of the distribution capture the dependence between the variable of interest and the continuous latent state variable (the regime). The distribution has an interpretation in terms of a mixture distribution with time-varying mixing probabilities. It has been shown empirically that this distribution outperforms its main competitor, the mixed normal (MN) distribution, in terms of capturing the stylized facts known for stock returns, namely, volatility clustering, leverage effect, skewness, kurtosis and regime dependence. Second, heteroscedasticity in the model is captured by a threeexogenous-factor GARCH model (GARCHX), where the factors are taken from the principal components analysis of various world indices and presents an application to option pricing. The factors of the GARCHX model are extracted from a matrix of world indices applying principal component analysis (PCA). The empirically determined factors are uncorrelated and represent truly different common components driving the returns. Both factors and the eight parameters inherent to the HTSN distribution aim at capturing the impact of the state of the economy on price levels since distribution parameters have economic interpretations in terms of conditional volatilities and correlations of the returns with the hidden continuous state. The PCA identifies statistically independent factors affecting the random evolution of a given pool of assets -in our paper a pool of international stock indices- and sorting them by order of relative importance. The PCA computes a historical cross asset covariance matrix and identifies principal components representing independent factors. In our paper, factors are used to calibrate the HTSN-GARCHX model and are ultimately responsible for the nature of the distribution of random variables being generated. We benchmark our model to the MN-GARCHX model following the same PCA methodology and the standard Black-Scholes model. We show that our model outperforms the benchmark in terms of RMSE in dollar losses for put and call options, which in turn outperforms the analytical Black-Scholes by capturing the stylized facts known for index returns, namely, volatility clustering, leverage effect, skewness, kurtosis and regime dependence.

Keywords: continuous hidden threshold, factor models, GARCHX models, option pricing, risk-premium

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Authors: Fatima Alkhayat, Abu Hassan Ahmed

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Qatar as the one of Middle East and Gulf country is growing rapidly due to urbanization. Urbanization, population’s movement and goods transportation in addition to climatic change all together create suitable environments for remerging and/or introduction of new disease vectors species. Unfortunately, knowledge on mosquito species composition and their geographical distribution in Qatar is extremely limited. The objective of present study is to provide update information on species composition and distribution. Mosquito larval survey carried out in six sentinel sites in Qatar. The collection was made on monthly basis in period from October 2013 to May 2015 using dipping techniques and identified to species level using appropriate pictorial keys. In total about 3,085 mosquito larvae were collected and identified to species compromising three mosquito genera, Culex 87.4% (n=2697), Ochlerotatus 9.9% (n= 305) and Anopheles 2.6% (n= 81). Among Culex genera; Culex quinquefasciatus represent 87.8% (n= 2369), Cx. pipiens 8.7% (n=237), and Cx. mattinglyi 3.4% (n=91). Culex quinquefasciatus was the most commonly collected species, representing 93.5% in Alwakra (n= 2216) which was observed in November, December, March, April and May when reached the peak. 6.4% in Nuaija (n= 151) was found in February and March and reached the peak in March. 0.1% in Alkaraana (n=2) only observed in April. Cx. pipiens was observed 50.2% in Rwdat Alfaras (n=120) and 48.9% in Hazm Almurkhiya (n=117). While in Rowdat Alfaras it was observed in Oct-May and in Hazm Almurkhiya from Oct-April. Cx. mattinglyi (n= 91) was only found in Nuaija from October to December. Ochlerotatus genera account 1 species Oc. dorsalis (n=305). The majority of Oc. dorsalis were observed in March and May, 98% in Nuaija (n= 299), followed by 2% in Alkhor (n=6) which was observed in January and February. Anopheles was only represented by An. stephensi which was found 69% in Alwakra (n= 56) in November, December, April and May, while 25.9% in Hazm Almurkhiya (n=21) and found in May and November. 6.2% in Rwadat Alfaras and was observed only in November and 1.2% in Nuaija (n=1) and observed in October. Further investigation is required on the composition and distribution of mosquito for implementing a surveillance program and control of mosquito-borne diseases in Qatar.

Keywords: composition, distribution, mosquito, Qatar

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Authors: Kyere Vincent Nartey, Klaus Greve, Atiemo Sampson

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E-waste is discarded electrical electronic equipment inclusive of all components, sub-assemblies and consumables which are part of the product at the time of discarding and known to contain both hazardous and valuable fractions. E-waste is recycled within the proposed ecological restoration of the Agbogbloshie enclave using crude and rudimental recycling procedures such as open burning and manual dismantling which result in pollution and contamination of soil, water and air. Using GIS, this study was conducted to examine the spatial distribution and extent of soil contamination by heavy metals from the e-waste recycling site in Agbogbloshie. From the month of August to November 2013, 146 soil samples were collected in addition to their coordinates using GPS. Elemental analysis performed on the collected soil samples using X-Ray fluorescence revealed over 30 elements including, Ni, Cr, Zn, Cu, Pb and Mn. Using geostatistical techniques in ArcGIS 10.1 spatial assessment and distribution maps were generated. Mathematical models or equations were used to estimate the degree of contamination and pollution index. Results from soil analysis from the Agbogbloshie enclave showed that levels of measured or observed elements were significantly higher than the Canadian EPA and Dutch environmental standards.

Keywords: e-waste, geostatistics, soil contamination, spatial distribution

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Authors: Sepulveda Juan

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This article explains the elements and considerations taken into account when implementing and applying patent evaluation and scientometric study in the identifications of technology trends, and the tools that led to the implementation of a software application for patent revision. Univariate analysis helped recognize the technological leaders in the field of energy, and steered the way for a multivariate analysis of this sample, which allowed for a graphical description of the techniques of mature technologies, as well as the detection of emerging technologies. This article ends with a validation of the methodology as applied to the case of fuel cells.

Keywords: patents, scientometric, renewable energy, technology maps

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Authors: Meriem Bahij, Ahmed Nafidi, Boujemâa Achchab, Sílvio M. A. Gama, José A. O. Matos

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Stochastic modeling concerns the use of probability to model real-world situations in which uncertainty is present. Therefore, the purpose of stochastic modeling is to estimate the probability of outcomes within a forecast, i.e. to be able to predict what conditions or decisions might happen under different situations. In the present study, we present a model of a stochastic diffusion process based on the bi-Weibull distribution function (its trend is proportional to the bi-Weibull probability density function). In general, the Weibull distribution has the ability to assume the characteristics of many different types of distributions. This has made it very popular among engineers and quality practitioners, who have considered it the most commonly used distribution for studying problems such as modeling reliability data, accelerated life testing, and maintainability modeling and analysis. In this work, we start by obtaining the probabilistic characteristics of this model, as the explicit expression of the process, its trends, and its distribution by transforming the diffusion process in a Wiener process as shown in the Ricciaardi theorem. Then, we develop the statistical inference of this model using the maximum likelihood methodology. Finally, we analyse with simulated data the computational problems associated with the parameters, an issue of great importance in its application to real data with the use of the convergence analysis methods. Overall, the use of a stochastic model reflects only a pragmatic decision on the part of the modeler. According to the data that is available and the universe of models known to the modeler, this model represents the best currently available description of the phenomenon under consideration.

Keywords: diffusion process, discrete sampling, likelihood estimation method, simulation, stochastic diffusion process, trends functions, bi-parameters weibull density function

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Authors: Abderrazek Ben Maatoug, Ibrahim Fatnassi, Wassim Ben Ayed

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In this paper we investigate the issue of market risk quantification for Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Islamic market equity. We use Value-at-Risk (VaR) as a measure of potential risk in Islamic stock market, for long and short position, based on Riskmetrics model and the conditional parametric ARCH class model volatility with normal, student and skewed student distribution. The sample consist of daily data for the 2006-2014 of 11 Islamic stock markets indices. We conduct Kupiec and Engle and Manganelli tests to evaluate the performance for each model. The main finding of our empirical results show that (i) the superior performance of VaR models based on the Student and skewed Student distribution, for the significance level of α=1% , for all Islamic stock market indices, and for both long and short trading positions (ii) Risk Metrics model, and VaR model based on conditional volatility with normal distribution provides the best accurate VaR estimations for both long and short trading positions for a significance level of α=5%.

Keywords: value-at-risk, risk management, islamic finance, GARCH models

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Authors: Roba Zakariah Shaheen

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In the 21st-century Interior, design pedagogy has developed rapidly due to social and economical factors. Socially, this paper presents research findings that shows a significant relationship between educators and students in interior design education. It shows that students’ personal traits, design process, and thinking process are significantly interrelated. Constructively, this paper presented how personal traits can guide educators in the interior design education domain to develop students’ thinking process. In the same time, it demonstrated how students should use their own personal traits to create their own design process. Constructivism was the theory underneath this research, as it supports the grounded theory, which is the methodological approach of this research. Moreover, Mayer’s Briggs Type Indicator strategy was used to investigate the personality traits scientifically, as a psychological strategy that related to cognitive ability. Conclusions from this research strongly recommends that educators and students should utilize their personal traits to foster interior design education.

Keywords: interior design, pedagogy, constructivism, grounded theory, personality traits, creativity

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Authors: Boguslaw Schreyer

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In some types of wheeled robots it is important to secure starting acceleration and deceleration maxima while at the same time maintaining transversal stability. In this paper torque distribution between the front and rear wheels as well as the timing of torque application have been calculated. Both secure an optimum traction coefficient. This paper also identifies required input signals to a control unit, which controls the torque values and timing. Using a three dimensional, two mass model of a robot developed by the author a computer simulation was performed confirming the calculations presented in this paper. These calculations were also implemented and confirmed during military robot testing.

Keywords: robot dynamics, torque distribution, traction coefficient, wheeled robots

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Authors: Alessandra Turini Bolsoni-Silva, Sonia Regina Loureiro

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It is important to evaluate such variables simultaneously and differentiating types of behavior problems: internalizing, externalizing and with comorbidity of internalizing and externalizing. The objective was to compare, correlate and predict teacher educational practices (educational social skills and negative practices) and children's behaviors (social skills and behavior problems) of children with internalizing, externalizing and combined internalizing and externalizing problems, controlling variables of child (gender and education). A total of 262 children were eligible to compose the participants, considering preschool age from 3 to 5 years old (n = 109) and school age from 6 to 11 (n = 153) years old, and their teachers who were distributed, in designs case-control, non-clinical, with internalizing, externalizing problems and internalizing and externalizing comorbidity, using the Teacher's Report Form (TRF) as a criterion. The instruments were applied with the teachers, after consent from the parents/guardians: a) Teacher’s Report Form (TRF); b) Educational Social Skills Interview Guide for Teachers (RE-HSE-Pr); (c) Socially Skilled Response Questionnaire – Teachers (QRSH-Pr). The data were treated by univariate and multivariate analyses, proceeding with comparisons, correlations and predictions regarding the outcomes of children with and without behavioral problems, considering the types of problems. As main results stand out: (a) group comparison studies: in the Inter group there is emphasis on behavior problems in affection interactions, which does not happen in the other groups; as for positive practices, they discriminate against groups with externalizing and combined problems and not in internalizing ones, positive educational practices – hse are more frequent in the G-Exter and G-Inter+Exter groups; negative practices differed only in the G-Exter and G-Inter+Exter groups; b) correlation studies: it can be seen that the Inter+Exter group presents a greater number of correlations in the relationship between behavioral problems/complaints and negative practices and between children's social skills and positive practices/contexts; c) prediction studies: children's social skills predict internalizing, externalizing and combined problems; it is also verified that the negative practices are in the multivariate model for the externalizing and combined ones. This investigation collaborates in the identification of risk and protective factors for specific problems, helping in interventions for different problems.

Keywords: development, educational practices, social skills, behavior problems, teacher

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Authors: Spandan Sahu, Amiya Kumar Pati, Kishanjit Kumar Khatua

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Rivers are the backbone of human civilization as well as one of the most important components of nature. In this paper, a method for predicting lateral depth-averaged velocity distribution in a two-flow braided compound channel is proposed. Experiments were conducted to study the boundary shear stress in the tip of the two flow path. The cross-section of the channel is divided into several panels to study the flow phenomenon on both the main channel and the flood plain. It can be inferred from the study that the flow coefficients get affected by boundary shear stress. In this study, the analytical solution of Shiono and knight (SKM) for lateral distributions of depth-averaged velocity and bed shear stress has been taken into account. The SKM is based on hydraulic parameters, which signify the bed friction factor (f), lateral eddy viscosity, and depth-averaged flow. While applying the SKM to different panels, the equations are solved considering the boundary conditions between panels. The boundary shear stress data, which are obtained from experimentation, are compared with CES software, which is based on quasi-one-dimensional Reynold's Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) approach.

Keywords: boundary shear stress, lateral depth-averaged velocity, two-flow braided compound channel, velocity distribution

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Authors: Haruna Maama

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Environmental, social and governance (ESG) reporting is gaining considerable attention despite being voluntary. Meanwhile, it consumes resources to provide ESG reporting, raising a question of its value relevance. The study examined the impact of ESG reporting on the market value of listed firms in SSA. The annual and integrated reports of 276 listed sub-Sahara Africa (SSA) firms. The integrated reporting scores of the firm were analysed using a content analysis method. A multiple regression estimation technique using a GMM approach was employed for the analysis. The results revealed that ESG has a positive relationship with firms’ market value, suggesting that investors are interested in the ESG information disclosure of firms in SSA. This suggests that extensive ESG disclosures are attempts by firms to obtain the approval of powerful social, political and environmental stakeholders, especially institutional investors. Furthermore, the market value analysis evidence is consistent with signalling theory, which postulates that firms provide integrated reports as a signal to influence the behaviour of stakeholders. This finding reflects the value placed on investors' social, environmental and governance disclosures, which affirms the views that conventional investors would care about the social, environmental and governance issues of their potential or existing investee firms. Overall, the evidence is consistent with the prediction of signalling theory. In the context of this theory, integrated reporting is seen as part of firms' overall competitive strategy to influence investors' behaviour. The findings of this study make unique contributions to knowledge and practice in corporate reporting.

Keywords: environmental accounting, ESG accounting, signalling theory, sustainability reporting, sub-saharan Africa

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Authors: Wajiha Javed, Arsalan Jabbar, Nelofer Mehboob, Muhammad Tafseer, Zahid Memon

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Introduction: Researchers globally have strived to explore diverse factors that augment the continuation and uptake of family planning methods. Clients’ satisfaction is one of the core determinants facilitating continuation of family planning methods. There is a major debate yet scanty evidence to contrast public and private sectors with respect to client satisfaction. The objective of this study is to compare quality-of-care provided by public and private sectors of Pakistan through a client satisfaction lens. Methods: We used Pakistan Demographic Heath Survey 2012-13 dataset (Sindh province) on a total of 3133 Married Women of Reproductive Age (MWRA) aged 15-49 years. Source of family planning (public/private sector) was the main exposure variable. Outcome variable was client satisfaction judged by ten different dimensions of client satisfaction. Means and standard deviations were calculated for continuous variable while for categorical variable frequencies and percentages were computed. For univariate analysis, Chi-square/Fisher Exact test was used to find an association between clients’ satisfaction in public and private sectors. Ten different multivariate models were made. Variables were checked for multi-collinearity, confounding, and interaction, and then advanced logistic regression was used to explore the relationship between client satisfaction and dependent outcome after adjusting for all known confounding factors and results are presented as OR and AOR (95% CI). Results: Multivariate analyses showed that clients were less satisfied in contraceptive provision from private sector as compared to public sector (AOR 0.92,95% CI 0.63-1.68) even though the result was not statistically significant. Clients were more satisfied from private sector as compared to the public sector with respect to other determinants of quality-of-care (follow-up care (AOR 3.29, 95% CI 1.95-5.55), infection prevention (AOR 2.41, 95% CI 1.60-3.62), counseling services (AOR 2.01, 95% CI 1.27-3.18, timely treatment (AOR 3.37, 95% CI 2.20-5.15), attitude of staff (AOR 2.23, 95% CI 1.50-3.33), punctuality of staff (AOR 2.28, 95% CI 1.92-4.13), timely referring (AOR 2.34, 95% CI 1.63-3.35), staff cooperation (AOR 1.75, 95% CI 1.22-2.51) and complications handling (AOR 2.27, 95% CI 1.56-3.29).

Keywords: client satisfaction, family planning, public private partnership, quality of care

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Authors: S. Jayasinghe, R. B. N. Dissanayake

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Optimization modelling together with the Network models and Linear Programming techniques is a powerful tool in problem solving and decision making in real world applications. This study developed a mathematical model to optimize the net profit by minimizing the transportation cost. This model focuses the transportation among decentralized production plants to a centralized distribution centre and then the distribution among island wide agencies considering the customer satisfaction as a requirement. This company produces basically 9 types of food items with 82 different varieties and 4 types of non-food items with 34 different varieties. Among 6 production plants, 4 were located near the city of Mawanella and the other 2 were located in Galewala and Anuradhapura cities which are 80 km and 150 km away from Mawanella respectively. The warehouse located in the Mawanella was the main production plant and also the only distribution plant. This plant distributes manufactured products to 39 agencies island-wide. The average values and average amount of the goods for 6 consecutive months from May 2013 to October 2013 were collected and then average demand values were calculated. The following constraints are used as the necessary requirement to satisfy the optimum condition of the model; there was one source, 39 destinations and supply and demand for all the agencies are equal. Using transport cost for a kilometer, total transport cost was calculated. Then the model was formulated using distance and flow of the distribution. Network optimization and linear programming techniques were used to originate the model while excel solver is used in solving. Results showed that company requires total transport cost of Rs. 146, 943, 034.50 to fulfil the customers’ requirement for a month. This is very much less when compared with data without using the model. Model also proved that company can reduce their transportation cost by 6% when distributing to island-wide customers. Company generally satisfies their customers’ requirements by 85%. This satisfaction can be increased up to 97% by using this model. Therefore this model can be used by other similar companies in order to reduce the transportation cost.

Keywords: mathematical model, network optimization, linear programming

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Authors: Richard Joseph, Nerey Mvungi

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An electric power system includes a generating, a transmission, a distribution and consumers subsystems. An electrical power network in Tanzania keeps growing larger by the day and become more complex so that, most utilities have long wished for real-time monitoring and remote control of electrical power system elements such as substations, intelligent devices, power lines, capacitor banks, feeder switches, fault analyzers and other physical facilities. In this paper, the concept of automation of management of power systems from generation level to end user levels was determined by using Power System Simulator for Engineering (PSS/E) version 30.3.2.

Keywords: automation, distribution subsystem, generating subsystem, PSS/E, TANESCO, transmission subsystem

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Authors: Uma Kanth, Amy Cook

Abstract:

Conceptual Metaphor Theory (CMT) proposes that metaphor is fundamental to human thought. CMT utilizes embodied cognition, in that emotions are conceptualized as effects on the body because of a coupling of one’s bodily experiences and one’s somatosensory system. Time perception is a function of embodied cognition and conceptual metaphor in that one’s experience of time is inextricably dependent on one’s perception of the world around them. A hallmark of depressive disorders is the distortion in one’s perception of time, such as neurological dysfunction and psychomotor retardation, and yet, to the author’s best knowledge, previous studies have not before linked CMT, embodied cognition, and depressive disorders. Therefore, the focus of this paper is the investigation of how the applications of CMT and embodied cognition (especially regarding time perception) have promise in improving current techniques to treat depressive disorders. This paper aimed to extend, through a thorough review of literature, the theoretical basis required to further research into CMT and embodied cognition’s application in treating time distortion related symptoms of depressive disorders. Future research could include the development of brain training technologies that capitalize on the principles of CMT, with the aim of promoting cognitive remediation and cognitive activation to mitigate symptoms of depressive disorder.

Keywords: depression, conceptual metaphor theory, embodied cognition, time

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Authors: S. Thomas, D. Ho, A. Kerroux, L. Lixi, N. Rackham, S. Rosenfeld

Abstract:

In this first paper, the different concepts and designs to build a single-wing MAV are discussed. Six scratch-building prototypes using three different designs have been tested regarding sufficient lift and weight distribution, of which various configurations were explored. Samare prototypes achieved wireless control over the motor and flap whilst obtaining data from the IMU, though obtaining an increase in lift was the key issue due to insufficient thrust. The final prototype was able to demonstrate an improvement in weight distribution.

Keywords: SAMARE, micro aerial vehicle (MAV), unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), mono-copter, single-wing, mono-wing, flight control, aerofoil, lift

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Authors: Craig A. Kaplan

Abstract:

If AGI proves to be a “winner-take-all” scenario where the first company or country to develop AGI dominates, then the first AGI must also be the safest. The safest, and fastest, path to Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) may be to harness the collective intelligence of multiple AI and human agents in an AGI network. This approach has roots in seminal ideas from four of the scientists who founded the field of Artificial Intelligence: Allen Newell, Marvin Minsky, Claude Shannon, and Herbert Simon. Extrapolating key insights from these founders of AI, and combining them with the work of modern researchers, results in a fast and safe path to AGI. The seminal ideas discussed are: 1) Society of Mind (Minsky), 2) Information Theory (Shannon), 3) Problem Solving Theory (Newell & Simon), and 4) Bounded Rationality (Simon). Society of Mind describes a collective intelligence approach that can be used with AI and human agents to create an AGI network. Information theory helps address the critical issue of how an AGI system will increase its intelligence over time. Problem Solving Theory provides a universal framework that AI and human agents can use to communicate efficiently, effectively, and safely. Bounded Rationality helps us better understand not only the capabilities of SuperIntelligent AGI but also how humans can remain relevant in a world where the intelligence of AGI vastly exceeds that of its human creators. Each key idea can be combined with recent work in the fields of Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Large Language Models to accelerate the development of a working, safe, AGI system.

Keywords: AI Agents, Collective Intelligence, Minsky, Newell, Shannon, Simon, AGI, AGI Safety

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Authors: Puthsodary Tat

Abstract:

Democracy has been categorially accepted and used as foreign and domestic policy agendas for the hope of peace, economic growth and prosperity for more than 25 years in Cambodia. However, the country is now in the grip of dictatorship, human rights violations, and prospective economic sanctions. This paper examines different perceptions and experiences of democratic assistance. In this study, the author employs discourse theory, idealism and realism as a theory-based methodology for debating and assessing the implications of democratization. Discourse theory is used to establish a platform for understanding discursive formations, body of knowledge and the games of truth of democracy. Idealist approaches give rational arguments for adopting key tenets that work well on the ground. In contrast, realism allows for some sweeping critiques of utopian ideal and offers particular views on why Western hegemonic missions do not work well. From idealist views, the research finds that Cambodian people still believe that democracy is a prima facie universality for peace, growth and prosperity. From realism, democratization is on the brink of death in three reasons. Firstly, there are tensions between Western and local discourses about democratic values and norms. Secondly, democratic tenets have been undermined by the ruling party-controlled courts, corruption, structural oppression and political patronage-based institutions. The third pitfall is partly associated with foreign aid dependency and geopolitical power struggles in the region. Finally, the study offers a precise mosaic of democratic principles that may be used to avoid a future geopolitical and economic crisis.

Keywords: corruption, democracy, democratic principles, discourse theory, discursive formations, foreign aid dependency, games of truth, geopolitical and economic crisis, geopolitical power struggle, hegemonic mission, idealism, realism, utopian ideal

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Authors: Gustavo Rodrigues, Hans Weber, Larissa Driemeier

Abstract:

The prevision of post-impact conditions and the behavior of the bodies during the impact have been object of several collision models. The formulation from Hertz’s theory is generally used dated from the 19^th century. These models consider the repulsive force as proportional to the deformation of the bodies under contact and may consider it proportional to the rate of deformation. The objective of the present work is to analyze the behavior of the bodies during impact using the Finite Element Method (FEM) with elastic and plastic material models. The main parameters to evaluate are, the contact force, the time of contact and the deformation of the bodies. An advantage of using the FEM approach is the possibility to apply a plastic deformation to the model according to the material definition: there will be used Johnson–Cook plasticity model whose parameters are obtained through empirical tests of real materials. This model allows analyzing the permanent deformation caused by impact, phenomenon observed in real world depending on the forces applied to the body. These results are compared between them and with the model-based Hertz theory.

Keywords: collision, impact models, finite element method, Hertz Theory

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Authors: Chatkaew Tansakul, Saovajit Nanruksa, Surasak Chonchirdsin

Abstract:

Heavy metals in the environment can be occurred by both natural weathering process and human activity, which may present significant risks to human health and the wider environment. A number of heavy metals, i.e. Arsenic (As) and Manganese (Mn), are found with a relatively high concentration in the northern part of Thailand that was assumptively from natural parent rocks and materials. However, scarce literature is challenging to identify the accurate root cause and best available explanation. This study is, therefore, aim to gather heavy metals data in 5 provinces of the North of Thailand where PTT Exploration and Production (PTTEP) public company limited has operated for more than 20 years. A thousand heavy metal analysis is collected and interpreted in term of Enrichment Factor (EF). The trend and distribution of heavy metals in soil and sediment are analyzed by considering altogether the geochemistry of the regional soil and rock. . In addition, the relationship between land use and heavy metals distribution is investigated. In the first conclusion, heavy metal concentrations of (As) and (Mn) in the studied areas are equal to 7.0 and 588.6 ppm, respectively, which are comparable to those in regional parent materials (1 – 12 and 850 – 1,000 ppm for As and Mn respectively). Moreover, there is an insignificant escalation of the heavy metals in these studied areas over two decades.

Keywords: contaminated soil, enrichment factor, heavy metals, parent materials in North of Thailand

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Authors: Swati Arun

Abstract:

The present paper argues that Balance of Power (BOP) needs to conjugate with certain contingencies like geography. It is evident that sea powers (‘insular’ for better clarity) are not balanced (if at all) in the same way as land powers. Its apparent that artificial insularity that the US has achieved reduces the chances of balancing (constant) and helps it maintain preponderance (variable). But how precise is this approach in assessing the dynamics between China’s rise and reaction of other powers and US. The ‘evolved’ theory can be validated by putting China and US in the equation. Systemic Relation between the nations was explained through the Balance of Power theory much before the systems theory was propounded. The BOP is the crux of functionality of ‘power relation’ dynamics which has played its role in the most astounding ways leading to situations of war and peace. Whimsical; but true that, the BOP has remained a complicated and indefinable concepts since Hans. Morganthau to Kenneth Waltz. A challenge of the BOP, however remains; “ that it has too many meanings”. In the recent times it has become evident that the myriad of expectations generated by BOP has not met the practicality of the current world politics. It is for this reason; the BoP has been replaced by Preponderance Theory (PT) to explain prevailing power situation. PT does provide an empirical reasoning for the success of this theory but fails in a abstract logical reasoning required for making a theory universal. Unipolarity clarifies the current system as one where balance of power has become redundant. It seems to reach beyond the contours of BoP, where a superpower does what it must to remain one. The centrality of this arguments pivots around - an exception, every time BOP fails to operate, preponderance of power emerges. PT does not sit well with the primary logic of a theory because it works on an exception. The evolution of such a pattern and system where BOP fails and preponderance emerges is absent. The puzzle here is- if BOP really has become redundant or it needs polishing. The international power structure changed from multipolar to bipolar to unipolar. BOP was looked at to provide inevitable logic behind such changes and answer the dilemma we see today- why US is unchecked, unbalanced? But why was Britain unchecked in 19th century and why China was unbalanced in 13th century? It is the insularity of the state that makes BOP reproduce “imbalance of power”, going a level up from off-shore balancer. This luxury of a state to maintain imbalance in the region of competition or threat is the causal relation between BOP’s and geography. America has applied imbalancing- meaning disequilibrium (in its favor) to maintain the regional balance so that over time the weaker does not get stronger and pose a competition. It could do that due to the significant parity present between the US and the rest.

Keywords: balance of power, china, preponderance of power, US

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Authors: Hooman Mehdizadeh Rad, Jai Singh

Abstract:

Organic solar cells (OSCs) have been actively investigated in the last two decades due to their several merits such as simple fabrication process, low-cost manufacturing, and lightweight. In this paper, using the optical transfer matrix method (OTMM) and solving the drift-diffusion equations processes of recombination are studied in inverted and conventional bulk heterojunction (BHJ) OSCs. Two types of recombination processes are investigated: 1) recombination of free charge carriers using the Langevin theory and 2) of trapped charge carriers in the tail states with exponential energy distribution. These recombination processes are incorporated in simulating the current- voltage characteristics of both conventional and inverted BHJ OSCs. The results of this simulation produces a higher power conversion efficiency in the inverted structure in comparison with conventional structure, which agrees well with the experimental results.

Keywords: conventional organic solar cells, exponential tail state recombination, inverted organic solar cells, Langevin recombination

Procedia PDF Downloads 181