Search results for: half metallic ferromagnet
822 Novel Recombinant Betasatellite Associated with Vein Thickening Symptoms on Okra Plants in Saudi Arabia
Authors: Adel M. Zakri, Mohammed A. Al-Saleh, Judith. K. Brown, Ali M. Idris
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Betasatellites are small circular single stranded DNA molecules found associated with begomoviruses on field symptomatic plants. Their genome size is about half that of the helper begomovirus, ranging between 1.3 and 1.4 kb. The helper begomoviruses are usually members of the family Geminiviridae. Okra leaves showing vein thickening were collected from okra plants growing in Jazan, Saudi Arabia. Total DNA was extracted from leaves and used as a template to amplify circular DNA using rolling circle amplification (RCA) technology. Products were digested with PstI to linearize the helper viral genome(s), and associated DNA satellite(s), yielding a 2.8kbp and 1.4kbp fragment, respectively. The linearized fragments were cloned into the pGEM-5Zf (+) vector and subjected to DNA sequencing. The 2.8 kb fragment was identified as Cotton leaf curl Gezira virus genome, at 2780bp, an isolate closely related to strains reported previously from Saudi Arabia. A clone obtained from the 1.4 kb fragments he 1.4kb was blasted to GeneBank database found to be a betasatellite. The genome of betasatellite was 1357-bp in size. It was found to be a recombinant containing one fragment (877-bp) that shared 91% nt identity with Cotton leaf curl Gezira betasatellite [KM279620], and a smaller fragment [133--bp) that shared 86% nt identity with Tomato leaf curl Sudan virus [JX483708]. This satellite is thus a recombinant between a malvaceous-infecting satellite and a solanaceous-infecting begomovirus.Keywords: begomovirus, betasatellites, cotton leaf curl Gezira virus, okra plants
Procedia PDF Downloads 341821 An Interactive Voice Response Storytelling Model for Learning Entrepreneurial Mindsets in Media Dark Zones
Authors: Vineesh Amin, Ananya Agrawal
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In a prolonged period of uncertainty and disruptions in the pre-said normal order, non-cognitive skills, especially entrepreneurial mindsets, have become a pillar that can reform the educational models to inform the economy. Dreamverse Learning Lab’s IVR-based storytelling program -Call-a-Kahaani- is an evolving experiment with an aim to kindle entrepreneurial mindsets in the remotest locations of India in an accessible and engaging manner. At the heart of this experiment is the belief that at every phase in our life’s story, we have a choice which brings us closer to achieving our true potential. This interactive program is thus designed using real-time storytelling principles to empower learners, ages 24 and below, to make choices and take decisions as they become more self-aware, practice grit, try new things through stories, guided activities, and interactions, simply over a phone call. This research paper highlights the framework behind an ongoing scalable, data-oriented, low-tech program to kindle entrepreneurial mindsets in media dark zones supported by iterative design and prototyping to reach 13700+ unique learners who made 59000+ calls for 183900+min listening duration to listen to content pieces of around 3 to 4 min, with the last monitored (March 2022) record of 34% serious listenership, within one and a half years of its inception. The paper provides an in-depth account of the technical development, content creation, learning, and assessment frameworks, as well as mobilization models which have been leveraged to build this end-to-end system.Keywords: non-cognitive skills, entrepreneurial mindsets, speech interface, remote learning, storytelling
Procedia PDF Downloads 210820 Examining the Skills of Establishing Number and Space Relations of Science Students with the 'Integrative Perception Test'
Authors: Ni̇sa Yeni̇kalayci, Türkan Aybi̇ke Akarca
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The ability of correlation the number and space relations, one of the basic scientific process skills, is being used in the transformation of a two-dimensional object into a three-dimensional image or in the expression of symmetry axes of the object. With this research, it is aimed to determine the ability of science students to establish number and space relations. The research was carried out with a total of 90 students studying in the first semester of the Science Education program of a state university located in the Turkey’s Black Sea Region in the fall semester of 2017-2018 academic year. An ‘Integrative Perception Test (IPT)’ was designed by the researchers to collect the data. Within the scope of IPT, the courses and workbooks specific to the field of science were scanned and the ones without symmetrical structure from the visual items belonging to the ‘Physics - Chemistry – Biology’ sub-fields were selected and listed. During the application, it was expected that students would imagine and draw images of the missing half of the visual items that were given incomplete in the first place. The data obtained from the test in which there are 30 images or pictures in total (f Physics = 10, f Chemistry = 10, f Biology = 10) were analyzed descriptively based on the drawings created by the students as ‘complete (2 points), incomplete/wrong (1 point), empty (0 point)’. For the teaching of new concepts in small aged groups, images or pictures showing symmetrical structures and similar applications can also be used.Keywords: integrative perception, number and space relations, science education, scientific process skills
Procedia PDF Downloads 152819 Tracheal Stenting to Relieve Respiratory Distress in Patient with Advanced Esophageal Malignancy and Its Anaesthetic Management
Authors: Aarti Agarwal, Ajmal Khan
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Background and Objective: Breathing difficulty is most distressing symptom for the patient and their caregivers providing palliative care to individuals with advanced malignancy. It needs to be tackled effectively and sometimes preemptively to provide relief from respiratory obstruction. Interventional procedures like tracheal stenting are becoming increasingly popular as a part of palliation for respiratory symptoms. We present a case of esophageal tumor earlier stented by Gastroenterologist to maintain esophageal patency, but the tumor outgrew to produce tracheal infiltration and thereby causing airway obstruction. Method and Result: 62-year-old man presented with unresectable Carcinoma oesophagus with inability to swallow. A metallic stent was placed by the gastroenterologist, to maintain esophageal patency and enable patient to swallow. Two months later, the patient returned to hospital in emergency with respiratory distress. CT neck and thorax revealed tumor infiltration through posterior tracheal wall. Lower extent of the tumor was till 1 cm above the carina. Airway stenting with Tracheo bronchial stent with Y configuration was planned under general anaesthesia with airway blocks. Superior Laryngeal Nerve Block, Glossopharyngeal block and Trans tracheal infiltration of local anaesthetics were performed. The patient was sedated with Fentanyl, Midazolam and propofol infusion but was breathing spontaneously. Once the rigid bronchoscope was placed inside trachea, breathing was supported with oxygen and sevoflurane. Initially, the trachea was cleared of tumor by coring. After creating space, tracheal stent was positioned and deployed. After stent placement patient was awakened, suctioned and nebulized. His respiratory stridor relieved instantaneously and was shifted to recovery. Conclusion: Airway blocks help in decreasing the incidence and severity of coughing during airway instrumentation thereby help in proper stent placement. They also reduce the requirement of general anaesthetics and hasten the post stenting recovery. Airway stent provided immediate relief to patient from symptoms of respiratory difficulty. Decision for early tracheal stenting may be taken for a select group of patients with high propensity for local spread, thereby avoiding respiratory complications and providing better quality of life in patients with inoperable malignancy.Keywords: tracheal stent, respiratory difficulty, esophageal tumor, anaesthetic management
Procedia PDF Downloads 227818 Protein Extraction by Enzyme-Assisted Extraction followed by Alkaline Extraction from Red Seaweed Eucheuma denticulatum (Spinosum) Used in Carrageenan Production
Authors: Alireza Naseri, Susan L. Holdt, Charlotte Jacobsen
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In 2014, the global amount of carrageenan production was 60,000 ton with a value of US$ 626 million. From this number, it can be estimated that the total dried seaweed consumption for this production was at least 300,000 ton/year. The protein content of these types of seaweed is 5 – 25%. If just half of this total amount of protein could be extracted, 18,000 ton/year of a high-value protein product would be obtained. The overall aim of this study was to develop a technology that will ensure further utilization of the seaweed that is used only as raw materials for carrageenan production as single extraction at present. More specifically, proteins should be extracted from the seaweed either before or after extraction of carrageenan with focus on maintaining the quality of carrageenan as a main product. Different mechanical, chemical and enzymatic technologies were evaluated. The optimized process was implemented in lab scale and based on its results; the new experiments were done a pilot and larger scale. In order to calculate the efficiency of the new upstream multi-extraction process, protein content was tested before and after extraction. After this step, the extraction of carrageenan was done and carrageenan content and the effect of extraction on yield were evaluated. The functionality and quality of carrageenan were measured based on rheological parameters. The results showed that by using the new multi-extraction process (submitted patent); it is possible to extract almost 50% of total protein without any negative impact on the carrageenan quality. Moreover, compared to the routine carrageenan extraction process, the new multi-extraction process could increase the yield of carrageenan and the rheological properties such as gel strength in the final carrageenan had a promising improvement. The extracted protein has initially been screened as a plant protein source in typical food applications. Further work will be carried out in order to improve properties such as color, solubility, and taste.Keywords: carrageenan, extraction, protein, seaweed
Procedia PDF Downloads 284817 Influence of Social Media on Perceived Learning Outcome of Agricultural Students in Tertiary Institutions in Oyo State, Nigeria
Authors: Adedoyin Opeyemi Osokoya
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The study assesses the influence of social media on perceived learning outcome of agricultural science students in tertiary institutions in Oyo state, Nigeria. The four-stage sampling procedure was used to select participants. All students in the seven tertiary institutions that offer agriculture science as a course of study in Oyo State was the population. A university, a college of agriculture and a college of education were sampled, and a department from each was randomly selected. Twenty percent of the students’ population in the respective selected department gave a sample size of 165. Questionnaire was used to collect information on respondents’ personal characteristics and information related to access to social media. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, chi-square, correlation, and multiple regression at the 0.05 confidence level. Age and household size were 21.13 ± 2.64 years and 6 ± 2.1 persons respectively. All respondents had access to social media, majority (86.1%) owned Android phone, 57.6% and 52.7% use social media for course work and entertainment respectively, while the commonly visited sites were WhatsApp, Facebook, Google, Opera mini. Over half (53.9%) had an unfavourable attitude towards the use of social media for learning; benefits of the use of social media for learning was high (56.4%). Removal of information barrier created by distance (x̄=1.58) was the most derived benefit, while inadequate power supply (x̄=2.36), was the most severe constraints. Age (β=0.23), sex (β=0.37), ownership of Android phone (β=-1.29), attitude (β=0.37), constraints (β =-0.26) and use of social media (β=0.23) were significant predictors of influence on perceived learning outcomes.Keywords: use of social media, agricultural science students, undergraduates of tertiary institutions, Oyo State of Nigeria
Procedia PDF Downloads 140816 Achievement of Sustainable Groundwater Exploitation through the Introduction of Water-Efficient Usage Techniques in Fish Farms
Authors: Lusine Tadevosyan, Natella Mirzoyan, Anna Yeritsyan, Narek Avetisyan
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Due to high quality, the artesian groundwater is the main source of water supply for the fisheries in Ararat Valley, Armenia. From 1.6 billion m3 abstracted groundwater in 2016, half was used by fish farms. Yet, the inefficient water use, typical for low-intensity aquaculture systems in Ararat Valley, has become a key environmental issue in Armenia. In addition to excessive pure groundwater exploitation, which along with other sectors of groundwater use in this area resulted in the reduction of artesian zone by approximately 67% during last 20 years, the negative environmental impact of these productions is magnified by the discharge of large volumes of wastewater into receiving water bodies. In turn, unsustainable use of artesian groundwater in Ararat Valley along with increasingly strict policy measures on water use had a devastating impact on small and/or medium scale aquaculture: over the last two years approximately 100 fish farms have permanently seized their operations. The current project aims at the introduction of efficient and environmentally friendly fish farming practices (e.g., Recirculating Aquaculture Systems) in Ararat Valley fisheries in order to support current levels of fish production and simultaneously reduce the negative environmental pressure of aquaculture facilities in Armenia. Economic and environmental analysis of current small and medium scale operational systems and subsequently developed environmentally–friendly and economically sustainable system configurations will be presented.Keywords: aquaculture, groundwater, recirculation, sustainability
Procedia PDF Downloads 270815 Displacement Solution for a Static Vertical Rigid Movement of an Interior Circular Disc in a Transversely Isotropic Tri-Material Full-Space
Authors: D. Mehdizadeh, M. Rahimian, M. Eskandari-Ghadi
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This article is concerned with the determination of the static interaction of a vertically loaded rigid circular disc embedded at the interface of a horizontal layer sandwiched in between two different transversely isotropic half-spaces called as tri-material full-space. The axes of symmetry of different regions are assumed to be normal to the horizontal interfaces and parallel to the movement direction. With the use of a potential function method, and by implementing Hankel integral transforms in the radial direction, the government partial differential equation for the solely scalar potential function is transformed to an ordinary 4th order differential equation, and the mixed boundary conditions are transformed into a pair of integral equations called dual integral equations, which can be reduced to a Fredholm integral equation of the second kind, which is solved analytically. Then, the displacements and stresses are given in the form of improper line integrals, which is due to inverse Hankel integral transforms. It is shown that the present solutions are in exact agreement with the existing solutions for a homogeneous full-space with transversely isotropic material. To confirm the accuracy of the numerical evaluation of the integrals involved, the numerical results are compared with the solutions exists for the homogeneous full-space. Then, some different cases with different degrees of material anisotropy are compared to portray the effect of degree of anisotropy.Keywords: transversely isotropic, rigid disc, elasticity, dual integral equations, tri-material full-space
Procedia PDF Downloads 440814 Temperature Dependent Magneto-Transport Properties of MnAl Binary Alloy Thin Films
Authors: Vineet Barwal, Sajid Husain, Nanhe Kumar Gupta, Soumyarup Hait, Sujeet Chaudhary
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High perpendicular magnetic anisotropy (PMA) and low damping constant (α) in ferromagnets are one of the few necessary requirements for their potential applications in the field of spintronics. In this regards, ferromagnetic τ-phase of MnAl possesses the highest PMA (Ku > 107 erg/cc) at room temperature, high saturation magnetization (Ms~800 emu/cc) and a Curie temperature of ~395K. In this work, we have investigated the magnetotransport behaviour of this potentially useful binary system MnₓAl₁₋ₓ films were synthesized by co-sputtering (pulsed DC magnetron sputtering) on Si/SiO₂ (where SiO₂ is native oxide layer) substrate using 99.99% pure Mn and Al sputtering targets. Films of constant thickness (~25 nm) were deposited at the different growth temperature (Tₛ) viz. 30, 300, 400, 500, and 600 ºC with a deposition rate of ~5 nm/min. Prior to deposition, the chamber was pumped down to a base pressure of 2×10⁻⁷ Torr. During sputtering, the chamber was maintained at a pressure of 3.5×10⁻³ Torr with the 55 sccm Ar flow rate. Films were not capped for the purpose of electronic transport measurement, which leaves a possibility of metal oxide formation on the surface of MnAl (both Mn and Al have an affinity towards oxide formation). In-plane and out-of-plane transverse magnetoresistance (MR) measurements on films sputtered under optimized growth conditions revealed non-saturating behavior with MR values ~6% and 40% at 9T, respectively at 275 K. Resistivity shows a parabolic dependence on the field H, when the H is weak. At higher H, non-saturating positive MR that increases exponentially with the strength of magnetic field is observed, a typical character of hopping type conduction mechanism. An anomalous decrease in MR is observed on lowering the temperature. From the temperature dependence of reistivity, it is inferred that the two competing states are metallic and semiconducting, respectively and the energy scale of the phenomenon produces the most interesting effects, i.e., the metal-insulator transition and hence the maximum sensitivity to external fields, at room temperature. Theory of disordered 3D systems effectively explains the crossover temperature coefficient of resistivity from positive to negative with lowering of temperature. These preliminary findings on the MR behavior of MnAl thin films will be presented in detail. The anomalous large MR in mixed phase MnAl system is evidently useful for future spintronic applications.Keywords: magnetoresistance, perpendicular magnetic anisotropy, spintronics, thin films
Procedia PDF Downloads 124813 The Factors Affecting on Promoting Productivity from Nurses' View
Authors: Mahnaz Sanjari, Sedigheh Salemi, Mohammad Mirzabeigi
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Nowadays, the world is facing a crisis of workforce and one of the most striking examples is the shortage of nurses. Nursing workforce productivity is related by various factors such as absenteeism, professional effectiveness and quality care. This cross-sectional study was conducted in 700 nurses who work in government hospitals from 35 hospitals of 9 provinces in Iran. The study was approved by the Nursing Council and was carried out with the authorization of the Research Ethics Committee. The questionnaire included 33 questions and 4 sub categories such as human resource, education and management. The reliability was evaluated by Cronbach's alpha (α=0/85). Statistical analyzes were performed, using SPSS version 16. The result showed that nurses emphasized on "respect to nurse-to-bed ratio" and less importance item was "using less experienced nurse". In addition, another important factor in clinical productivity is "Proper physical structure and amenities","good communication with colleagues" and "having good facilities". Also, "human resources at all levels of standard", "promoting on merit" and "well defined relationship in health system" are another important factors in productivity from nurse` view. The main managerial factor is "justice between employees" and the main educational component of productivity is “updating nursing knowledge”. The results show that more than half of the participants emphasized on the management and educational factors. Productivity as one of the main part of the health care quality leads to appropriate use of human and organizational resources, reduce cost services, and organizational development.Keywords: productivity, nursing services, workforce, cost services
Procedia PDF Downloads 344812 Culturing of Bovine Pre-Compacted Morlae in TCM-199 and Baf in a Standard 5% CO2 Laboratory Incubator and in the Vagina of a Goat Doe
Authors: Daniel M. Barry
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Since more than half a century ago, attempts have been made to culture cells and embryos outside the body (in vitro or ex vivo). This was done with different culture media and in various “incubators”. In the present study two different culture media were used: a standard TCM-199 culture medium and first trimester amniotic fluid (BAF) collected sterilely from pregnant cows after slaughter. Two different culture conditions were also investigated, the standard laboratory CO2 incubator versus culturing bovine embryos in the vagina of a goat doe. Two experiments were done: Firstly the permeability of different receptacles to CO2 gas was analyzed for possible culture in the vagina. Four-well plates and straws were used to incubate TCM-199 and BAF for a period of 120 h in the presence or absence of 5% CO2 gas. The pH values were measured and recorded every 24 h. In the second experiment pre-compacted morula stage bovine embryos were cultured in the above culture media in sealed 0.25 mL straws in a standard laboratory incubator and in the vagina of a goat doe. Evaluation was done on (1) stage of development and (2) number of blastomeres after 96 h of culture. In the first experiment it was shown that the CO2 gas diffused out of the 4-well plate as well as through the wall of the straws in the absence of CO2 gas, while in the presence of CO2 the pH of both media stabilized between 7.3 and 7.5. This meant that the semen straws were permeable to CO2 gas and could therefore be used as receptacles for culturing early stage bovine embryos. In the second experiment no statistical differences (p>0.05) were found in the number of pre-compacted bovine embryos that developed to the blastocyst stage, or the hatched blastocyst stage, neither for the culture medium used, or the method of culturing in the two incubators. Neither was there any difference (p>0.05) in the number of blastomeres that developed at the blastocyst stage between the two types of incubators. The bovine embryos tended to develop more blastomeres when cultured in BAF than when cultured in TCM-199 in both the standard laboratory incubator and when using the vagina of a goat doe as an incubator.Keywords: alternative culture, bovine embryos, vagina, bovine amniotic fluid, incubator
Procedia PDF Downloads 490811 A Retrospective Study on the Age of Onset for Type 2 Diabetes Diagnosis
Authors: Mohamed A. Hammad, Dzul Azri Mohamed Noor, Syed Azhar Syed Sulaiman, Majed Ahmed Al-Mansoub, Muhammad Qamar
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There is a progressive increase in the prevalence of early onset Type 2 diabetes mellitus. Early detection of Type 2 diabetes enhances the length and/or quality of life which might result from a reduction in the severity, frequency or prevent or delay of its long-term complications. The study aims to determine the onset age for the first diagnosis of Type 2 diabetes mellitus. A retrospective study conducted in the endocrine clinic at Hospital Pulau Pinang in Penang, Malaysia, January- December 2016. Records of 519 patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus were screened to collect demographic data and determine the age of first-time diabetes mellitus diagnosis. Patients classified according to the age of diagnosis, gender, and ethnicity. The study included 519 patients with age (55.6±13.7) years, female 265 (51.1%) and male 254 (48.9%). The ethnicity distribution was Malay 191 (36.8%), Chinese 189 (36.4%) and Indian 139 (26.8%). The age of Type 2 diabetes diagnosis was (42±14.8) years. The female onset of diabetes mellitus was at age (41.5±13.7) years, while male (42.6±13.7) years. Distribution of diabetic onset by ethnicity was Malay at age (40.7±13.7) years, Chinese (43.2±13.7) years and Indian (42.3±13.7) years. Diabetic onset was classified by age as follow; ≤20 years’ cohort was 33 (6.4%) cases. Group >20- ≤40 years was 190 (36.6%) patients, and category >40- ≤60 years was 270 (52%) subjects. On the other hand, the group >60 years was 22 (4.2%) patients. The range of diagnosis was between 10 and 73 years old. Conclusion: Malay and female have an earlier onset of diabetes than Indian, Chinese and male. More than half of the patients had diabetes between 40 and 60 years old. Diabetes mellitus is becoming more common in younger age <40 years. The age at diagnosis of Type 2 diabetes mellitus has decreased with time.Keywords: age of onset, diabetes diagnosis, diabetes mellitus, Malaysia, outpatients, type 2 diabetes, retrospective study
Procedia PDF Downloads 414810 Implementation of Correlation-Based Data Analysis as a Preliminary Stage for the Prediction of Geometric Dimensions Using Machine Learning in the Forming of Car Seat Rails
Authors: Housein Deli, Loui Al-Shrouf, Hammoud Al Joumaa, Mohieddine Jelali
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When forming metallic materials, fluctuations in material properties, process conditions, and wear lead to deviations in the component geometry. Several hundred features sometimes need to be measured, especially in the case of functional and safety-relevant components. These can only be measured offline due to the large number of features and the accuracy requirements. The risk of producing components outside the tolerances is minimized but not eliminated by the statistical evaluation of process capability and control measurements. The inspection intervals are based on the acceptable risk and are at the expense of productivity but remain reactive and, in some cases, considerably delayed. Due to the considerable progress made in the field of condition monitoring and measurement technology, permanently installed sensor systems in combination with machine learning and artificial intelligence, in particular, offer the potential to independently derive forecasts for component geometry and thus eliminate the risk of defective products - actively and preventively. The reliability of forecasts depends on the quality, completeness, and timeliness of the data. Measuring all geometric characteristics is neither sensible nor technically possible. This paper, therefore, uses the example of car seat rail production to discuss the necessary first step of feature selection and reduction by correlation analysis, as otherwise, it would not be possible to forecast components in real-time and inline. Four different car seat rails with an average of 130 features were selected and measured using a coordinate measuring machine (CMM). The run of such measuring programs alone takes up to 20 minutes. In practice, this results in the risk of faulty production of at least 2000 components that have to be sorted or scrapped if the measurement results are negative. Over a period of 2 months, all measurement data (> 200 measurements/ variant) was collected and evaluated using correlation analysis. As part of this study, the number of characteristics to be measured for all 6 car seat rail variants was reduced by over 80%. Specifically, direct correlations for almost 100 characteristics were proven for an average of 125 characteristics for 4 different products. A further 10 features correlate via indirect relationships so that the number of features required for a prediction could be reduced to less than 20. A correlation factor >0.8 was assumed for all correlations.Keywords: long-term SHM, condition monitoring, machine learning, correlation analysis, component prediction, wear prediction, regressions analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 49809 Closed Urban Block versus Open Housing Estates Structures: Sustainability Surveys in Brno, Czech Republic
Authors: M. Wittmann, G. Kopacik, A. Leitmannova
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A prominent place in the spatial arrangement of Czech as well as other post-socialist, Central European cities belongs to 19th century closed urban blocks and the open concrete panel housing estates which were erected during the socialism era in the second half of 20th century. The characteristics of these two fundamentally diverse types of residential structures have, as we suppose, a different impact on the sustainable development of the urban area. The characteristics of these residential structures may influence the ecological stability of the area, its hygienic qualities, the intensity and way of using by various social groups, and also, e.g., the prices of real estates. These and many other phenomena indicate the environmental, social and economic sustainability of the urban area. The proposed research methodology assessed specific indicators of sustainability within a range from 0 to 10 points. 5 points correspond to the general standard in the area, 0 points indicates degradation, and 10 points indicate the highest contribution to sustainable development. The survey results are reflected in the overall sustainability index and in the residents’ satisfaction index. The paper analyses the residential structures in the Central European city of Brno, Czech Republic. The case studies of the urban blocks near the city centre and of the housing estate Brno - Vinohrady are compared. The results imply that a considerable positive impact on the sustainable development of the area should be ascribed to the closed urban blocks near the city centre.Keywords: City of Brno, closed urban block, open housing estate, urban structure
Procedia PDF Downloads 179808 The Role of Moroccan Salafist Radicalism in Creating Threat to Spain’s Security
Authors: Stanislaw Kosmynka
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Although the genesis of the activity of fighting salafist radicalism in Spain dates back to the 80’s, the development of extremism of this kind manifested itself only in the next decade. Its first permanently functioning structures in this country in the second half of 90’s of 20th century came from Algieria and Syria. At the same time it should be emphasized that this distinction is in many dimensions conventional, the more so because they consisted also of immigrants from other coutries of Islam, particularly from Morocco. The paper seeks to understand the radical salafist challenge for Spain in the context of some terrorist networks consisted of immigrants from Morocco. On the eve of the new millennium Moroccan jihadists played an increasingly important role. Although the activity of these groups had for many years mainly logistical and propaganda character, the bomb attack carried out on 11 March 2004 in Madrid constituted an expression of open forms of terrorism, directed against the authorities and society of Spain and reflected the narration of representatives of the trend of the global jihad. The people involved in carrying out that act of violence were to a large extent Moroccan immigrants; also in the following years among the cells of radicals in Spain Moroccans stood out many times. That is why the forms and directions of activity of these extremists in Spain, also after 11th March 2004 and in the actual context of the impact of Islamic State, are worth presenting. The paper is focused on threats to the security of Spain and the region and remains connected with the issues of mutual relations of the society of a host country with immigrant communities which to a large degree come from this part of Maghreb.Keywords: jihadi terrorism, Morocco, radical salafism, security, Spain, terrorist cells, threat
Procedia PDF Downloads 525807 Health Hazards Among Health Care Workers and Associated Factors in Public Hospitals, Sana'a-Yemen
Authors: Makkia Ahmad Ali Al-Falahi, Abdullah Abdelaziz Muharram
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Background: Healthcare workers (HCWs) in Yemen are exposed to a myriad of occupational health hazards, including biological, physical, ergonomic, chemical and psychosocial hazards. HCWs operate in an environment that is considered to be one of the most hazardous occupational settings. Objective: To assess the prevalence of occupational health hazards among healthcare workers and associated risk factors in public hospitals in Sana'a City, Yemen. Method: Descriptive cross-sectional design was utilized; out of 5443 totals of HCWs 396 were selected by multistage sampling technique was carried out in the public hospitals in Sana'a city, Yemen. Results: More the half (60.6%) of HCWs aged between 20-30 years, (50.8%) were males, (56.3%) were married, and (45.5%) had a diploma qualification, while (65.2%) of HCWs had less than 6 years of experience. The result showed that the highest prevalence of occupational hazards was (99%), (ergonomic hazards (93.4%), biological hazards (87.6%), psychosocial (86.65%), physical hazards (83.3%), and chemical hazards (73.5%). There were no statistically significant differences between demographic characteristics and the prevalence of occupational hazards (p >0.05). Conclusion and recommendations: The study showed the highest prevalence of occupational hazards; regarding the prevalence of biological hazards exposure to sharp-related injury, the most prevalent physical hazards were slip/trip/and fall. Ergonomic hazards had back or neck pain during work. Chemical hazards were allergic to medical gloves powder. On psychosocial hazards was suffered from verbal and physical harassment. The study concluded by raising awareness among HCWs by conducting training courses to prevent occupational hazards.Keywords: health workers, occupational hazards, risk factors, the prevalence
Procedia PDF Downloads 82806 Detecting Financial Bubbles Using Gap between Common Stocks and Preferred Stocks
Authors: Changju Lee, Seungmo Ku, Sondo Kim, Woojin Chang
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How to detecting financial bubble? Addressing this simple question has been the focus of a vast amount of empirical research spanning almost half a century. However, financial bubble is hard to observe and varying over the time; there needs to be more research on this area. In this paper, we used abnormal difference between common stocks price and those preferred stocks price to explain financial bubble. First, we proposed the ‘W-index’ which indicates spread between common stocks and those preferred stocks in stock market. Second, to prove that this ‘W-index’ is valid for measuring financial bubble, we showed that there is an inverse relationship between this ‘W-index’ and S&P500 rate of return. Specifically, our hypothesis is that when ‘W-index’ is comparably higher than other periods, financial bubbles are added up in stock market and vice versa; according to our hypothesis, if investors made long term investments when ‘W-index’ is high, they would have negative rate of return; however, if investors made long term investments when ‘W-index’ is low, they would have positive rate of return. By comparing correlation values and adjusted R-squared values of between W-index and S&P500 return, VIX index and S&P500 return, and TED index and S&P500 return, we showed only W-index has significant relationship between S&P500 rate of return. In addition, we figured out how long investors should hold their investment position regard the effect of financial bubble. Using this W-index, investors could measure financial bubble in the market and invest with low risk.Keywords: financial bubble detection, future return, forecasting, pairs trading, preferred stocks
Procedia PDF Downloads 368805 Design and Development of Power Sources for Plasma Actuators to Control Flow Separation
Authors: Himanshu J. Bahirat, Apoorva S. Janawlekar
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Plasma actuators are essential for aerodynamic flow separation control due to their lack of mechanical parts, lightweight, and high response frequency, which have numerous applications in hypersonic or supersonic aircraft. The working of these actuators is based on the formation of a low-temperature plasma between a pair of parallel electrodes by the application of a high-voltage AC signal across the electrodes, after which air molecules from the air surrounding the electrodes are ionized and accelerated through the electric field. The high-frequency operation is required in dielectric discharge barriers to ensure plasma stability. To carry out flow separation control in a hypersonic flow, the optimal design and construction of a power supply to generate dielectric barrier discharges is carried out in this paper. In this paper, it is aspired to construct a simplified circuit topology to emulate the dielectric barrier discharge and study its various frequency responses. The power supply can generate high voltage pulses up to 20kV at the repetitive frequency range of 20-50kHz with an input power of 500W. The power supply has been designed to be short circuit proof and can endure variable plasma load conditions. Its general outline is to charge a capacitor through a half-bridge converter and then later discharge it through a step-up transformer at a high frequency in order to generate high voltage pulses. After simulating the circuit, the PCB design and, eventually, lab tests are carried out to study its effectiveness in controlling flow separation.Keywords: aircraft propulsion, dielectric barrier discharge, flow separation control, power source
Procedia PDF Downloads 127804 Biography and Psychotherapy: Oral History Interviews with Psychotherapists
Authors: Barbara Papp
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Purpose: This article aims to rethink the relationship between the trauma and the choice of professions. By studying a homogenous sample of respondents, it seeks answers to the following question: how did personal losses that were caused by historical upheavals motivate people to enter the helping professions. By becoming helping professionals, the respondents of the survey sought to handle both historical representation and self-representation. How did psychotherapists working in the second half of the 20th century (Kádár-era in Hungary) shape their course of life? How did their family members respond to their choice of career? What forces supported or hindered them? How did they become professional helpers? Methodology: When interviewing 40 psychotherapists, the interviewer used the oral history technique. In-depth interviews were made with a focus on motivation. First, the collected material was examined using traditional content analysis tools: searching for content patterns, applying a word frequency analysis, and identifying the connections between key events and key persons. Second, a narrative psychological content analysis (NarrCat) was made. Findings: Interconnections were established between attachment, family and historical traumas and career choices. The history of the mid-20th-century period was traumatic and full of losses for the families of most of the psychotherapists concerned. Those experiences may have considerably influenced their choice of career. Working as helping therapists, they could get the opportunity to revise their losses. Conclusion: The results revealed core components that play a role in the psychotherapists’ choice of career, and also emphasized the importance of post-traumatic growth.Keywords: biography, identity, narrative psychological content analysis, psychotherapists, trauma
Procedia PDF Downloads 138803 Digital Image Correlation: Metrological Characterization in Mechanical Analysis
Authors: D. Signore, M. Ferraiuolo, P. Caramuta, O. Petrella, C. Toscano
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The Digital Image Correlation (DIC) is a newly developed optical technique that is spreading in all engineering sectors because it allows the non-destructive estimation of the entire surface deformation without any contact with the component under analysis. These characteristics make the DIC very appealing in all the cases the global deformation state is to be known without using strain gages, which are the most used measuring device. The DIC is applicable to any material subjected to distortion caused by either thermal or mechanical load, allowing to obtain high-definition mapping of displacements and deformations. That is why in the civil and the transportation industry, DIC is very useful for studying the behavior of metallic materials as well as of composite materials. DIC is also used in the medical field for the characterization of the local strain field of the vascular tissues surface subjected to uniaxial tensile loading. DIC can be carried out in the two dimension mode (2D DIC) if a single camera is used or in a three dimension mode (3D DIC) if two cameras are involved. Each point of the test surface framed by the cameras can be associated with a specific pixel of the image, and the coordinates of each point are calculated knowing the relative distance between the two cameras together with their orientation. In both arrangements, when a component is subjected to a load, several images related to different deformation states can be are acquired through the cameras. A specific software analyzes the images via the mutual correlation between the reference image (obtained without any applied load) and those acquired during the deformation giving the relative displacements. In this paper, a metrological characterization of the digital image correlation is performed on aluminum and composite targets both in static and dynamic loading conditions by comparison between DIC and strain gauges measures. In the static test, interesting results have been obtained thanks to an excellent agreement between the two measuring techniques. In addition, the deformation detected by the DIC is compliant with the result of a FEM simulation. In the dynamic test, the DIC was able to follow with a good accuracy the periodic deformation of the specimen giving results coherent with the ones given by FEM simulation. In both situations, it was seen that the DIC measurement accuracy depends on several parameters such as the optical focusing, the parameters chosen to perform the mutual correlation between the images and, finally, the reference points on image to be analyzed. In the future, the influence of these parameters will be studied, and a method to increase the accuracy of the measurements will be developed in accordance with the requirements of the industries especially of the aerospace one.Keywords: accuracy, deformation, image correlation, mechanical analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 311802 Injury Pattern of Field Hockey Players at Different Field Position during Game and Practice
Authors: Sujay Bisht
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The purpose of the study was to assess and examines the pattern of injury among the field hockey players at different field position during practice & game. It was hypothesized that the backfield might have the height rate of injury, followed by midfield. Methods: university level and national level male field hockey (N=60) are selected as a subject and requested to respond an anon questionnaire. Personal characteristics of each and individual players were also collected like (age, height, weight); field hockey professional information (level of play, year of experience, playing surface); players injury history (site, types, cause etc). The rates of injury per athlete per year were also calculated. Result: Around half of the injury occurred were to the lower limbs (49%) followed by head and face (30%), upper limbs (19%) and torso region (2%). Injuries included concussion, wounds, broken nose, ligament sprain, dislocation, fracture, and muscles strain and knee injury. The ligament sprain is the highest rate (40%) among the other types of injuries. After investigation and evaluation backfield players had the highest rate of risk of injury (1.10 injury/athletes-year) followed by midfield players (0.70 injury/athlete-year), forward players (0.45 injury/athlete-year) & goalkeeper was (0.37 injury/athlete-year). Conclusion: Due to the different field position the pattern & rate of injury were different. After evaluation, lower limbs had the highest rate of injury followed by head and face, upper limbs and torso respectively. It also revealed that not only there is a difference in the rate of injury between playing the position, but also in the types of injury sustain at a different position.Keywords: trauma, sprain, strain, astroturf, acute injury
Procedia PDF Downloads 225801 Measuring Impacts of Agroforestry on Soil Erosion with Field Devices: Quantifying Potential for Water Infiltration, Soil Conservation, and Payments for Ecosystems Services Schemes
Authors: Arthur Rouanet, Marina Gavaldao
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Throughout the second half of the 20th Century, estimates indicate that soil losses due to erosion have impacted one-third of worldwide arable lands. As such, these losses are amongst the largest threats to agriculture sustainability and production potential. Increasing tree cover is considered one of the most efficient methods to mitigate this phenomenon. The present study describes soil erosion measurements in different land cover situations in Alto Huayabamba, Peru, using the experimental plot methodology. Three parcels were studied during a one-year period (starting September 2015) with 3 different land cover scenarii evaluated: 10-year-old secondary tropical forest (P1), 3-year-old native species reforestation (P2) and bare soil (P3). Information was collected systematically after each rain to assess the average rainfall, water runoff and soil eroded. The results indicate that variance in land cover has a strong impact on the level of soil erosion. In our study, it was found that P1, P2 and P3 had erosion rates of 92 kg/ha/yr, 11 tons/ha/yr and 59,7 tons/ha/year respectively. Using a replacement cost method, the potential of limiting erosion by reforesting bare soil was estimated to be 561 $/ha/yr after three years and 687 $/ha/yr after ten years. Finally, the results of the study allow us to assess the potential soil services provided by vegetation, which could be an important building block for a payment for ecosystems services (PES) scheme. The latter has been increasingly spread all over the world through Public-Private Partnerships (PPP).Keywords: agroforestry, erosion, ecosystem services, payment for ecosystem services (PES), water conservation, public private partnership (PPP)
Procedia PDF Downloads 266800 An Architectural Study on the Railway Station Buildings in Malaysia during British Era, 1885-1957
Authors: Nor Hafizah Anuar, M. Gul Akdeniz
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This paper attempted on emphasize on the station buildings façade elements. Station buildings were essential part of the transportation that reflected the technology. Comparative analysis on architectural styles will also be made between the railway station buildings of Malaysia and any railway station buildings which have similarities. The Malay Peninsula which is strategically situated between the Straits of Malacca and the South China Sea makes it an ideal location for trade. Malacca became an important trading port whereby merchants from around the world stopover to exchange various products. The Portuguese ruled Malacca for 130 years (1511–1641) and for the next century and a half (1641–1824), the Dutch endeavoured to maintain an economic monopoly along the coasts of Malaya. Malacca came permanently under British rule under the Anglo-Dutch Treaty, 1824. Up to Malaysian independence in 1957, Malaya saw a great influx of Chinese and Indian migrants as workers to support its growing industrial needs facilitated by the British. The growing tin ore mining and rubber industry resulted as the reason of the development of the railways as urgency to transport it from one place to another. The existence of railway transportation becomes more significant when the city started to bloom and the British started to build grandeur buildings that have different functions; administrative buildings, town and city halls, railway stations, public works department, courts, and post offices.
Keywords: Malaysia, station building, architectural styles, facade elements
Procedia PDF Downloads 166799 Risk of Type 2 Diabetes among Female College Students in Saudi Arabia
Authors: Noor A. Hakim
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Several studies in the developed countries investigated the prevalence of diabetes and obesity among individuals from different socioeconomic levels and suggested lower rates among the higher socioeconomic groups. However, studies evaluating diabetes risk and prevalence of obesity among the population of middle- to high-income status in developing countries are limited. The aim of this study is to evaluate the risk of developing type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and the weight status of female students in private universities in Jeddah City, Saudi Arabia. This is a cross-sectional study of 121 female students aged ≤ 25 years old was conducted; participants were recruited from two private universities. Diabetes risk was evaluated using the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score. Anthropometric measurements were assessed, and body-mass-index (BMI) was calculated. Diabetes risk scores indicated that 35.5% of the female students had a slightly elevated risk, and 10.8% had a moderate to high risk to develop T2DM. One-third of the females (29.7%) were overweight or obese. The majority of the normal weight and underweight groups were classified to have a low risk of diabetes, 22.2% of the overweight participants were classified to have moderate to high risk, and over half of the obese participants (55.5%) were classified to be at the moderate to high-risk category. Conclusions: Given that diabetes risk is alarming among the population in Saudi Arabia, healthcare providers should utilize a simple screening tool to identify high-risk individuals and initiate diabetes preventive strategies to prevent, or delay, the onset of T2DM and improve the quality of life.Keywords: risk of type 2 diabetes, weight status, college students, socioeconomic status
Procedia PDF Downloads 179798 A Physiological Approach for Early Detection of Hemorrhage
Authors: Rabie Fadil, Parshuram Aarotale, Shubha Majumder, Bijay Guargain
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Hemorrhage is the loss of blood from the circulatory system and leading cause of battlefield and postpartum related deaths. Early detection of hemorrhage remains the most effective strategy to reduce mortality rate caused by traumatic injuries. In this study, we investigated the physiological changes via non-invasive cardiac signals at rest and under different hemorrhage conditions simulated through graded lower-body negative pressure (LBNP). Simultaneous electrocardiogram (ECG), photoplethysmogram (PPG), blood pressure (BP), impedance cardiogram (ICG), and phonocardiogram (PCG) were acquired from 10 participants (age:28 ± 6 year, weight:73 ± 11 kg, height:172 ± 8 cm). The LBNP protocol consisted of applying -20, -30, -40, -50, and -60 mmHg pressure to the lower half of the body. Beat-to-beat heart rate (HR), systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and mean aerial pressure (MAP) were extracted from ECG and blood pressure. Systolic amplitude (SA), systolic time (ST), diastolic time (DT), and left ventricle Ejection time (LVET) were extracted from PPG during each stage. Preliminary results showed that the application of -40 mmHg i.e. moderate stage simulated hemorrhage resulted significant changes in HR (85±4 bpm vs 68 ± 5bpm, p < 0.01), ST (191 ± 10 ms vs 253 ± 31 ms, p < 0.05), LVET (350 ± 14 ms vs 479 ± 47 ms, p < 0.05) and DT (551 ± 22 ms vs 683 ± 59 ms, p < 0.05) compared to rest, while no change was observed in SA (p > 0.05) as a consequence of LBNP application. These findings demonstrated the potential of cardiac signals in detecting moderate hemorrhage. In future, we will analyze all the LBNP stages and investigate the feasibility of other physiological signals to develop a predictive machine learning model for early detection of hemorrhage.Keywords: blood pressure, hemorrhage, lower-body negative pressure, LBNP, machine learning
Procedia PDF Downloads 167797 Retinal Changes in Patients with Idiopathic Inflammatory Myopathies: A Case-Control Study
Authors: Rachna Agarwal, R. Naveen, Darpan Thakre, Rohit Shahi, Maryam Abbasi, Upendra Rathore, Latika Gupta
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Aim: Retinal changes are the window to systemic vasculature. Therefore, we explored retinal changes in patients with idiopathic inflammatory myopathies (IIM) as a surrogate for vascular health. Methods: Adult and juvenile IIM patients visiting a tertiary care centre in 2021 satisfying the International Myositis Classification Criteria were enrolled for detailed ophthalmic examination in comparison with healthy controls (HC). Patients with conditions that precluded thorough posterior chamber examination were excluded. Scale variables are expressed as median (IQR). Multivariate analysis (binary logistic regression-BLR) was conducted, adjusting for age, gender, and comorbidities besides factors significant in univariate analysis. Results: 43 patients with IIM [31 females; age 36 (23-45) years; disease duration 5.5 (2-12) months] were enrolled for participation. DM (44%) was the most common diagnosis. IIM patients exhibited frequent attenuation of retinal vessels (32.6% vs. 4.3%, p <0.001), AV nicking (14% vs. 2.2%, p=0.053), and vascular tortuosity (18.6% vs. 2.2%, p=0.012), besides decreased visual acuity (53.5% vs. 10.9%, p<0.001) and immature cataracts (34.9% vs. 2.2%, p<0.001). Attenuation of vessels [OR 10.9 (1.7-71), p=0.004] emerged as significantly different from HC after adjusting for covariates in BLR. Notably, adults with IIM were more predisposed to retinal abnormalities [21 (57%) vs. 1 (16%), p=0.068], especially attenuation of vessels [14(38%) vs. 0(0), p=0.067] than jIIM. However, no difference was found in retinal features amongst the subtypes of adult IIM, nor did they correlate with MDAAT, MDI, or HAQ-DI. Conclusion: Retinal microvasculopathy and diminution of vision occur in nearly one-third to half of the patients with IIM. Microvasculopathy occurs across subtypes of IIM, and more so in adults, calling for further investigation as a surrogate for damage assessment and potentially even systemic vascular health.Keywords: idiopathic inflammatory myopathies, vascular health, retinal microvasculopathy, arterial attenuation
Procedia PDF Downloads 91796 Electrochemical Synthesis of Copper Nanoparticles
Authors: Juan Patricio Ibáñez, Exequiel López
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A method for synthesizing copper nanoparticles through an electrochemical approach is proposed, employing surfactants to stabilize the size of the newly formed nanoparticles. The electrolyte was made up of a matrix of H₂SO₄ (190 g/L) having Cu²⁺ (from 3.2 to 9.5 g/L), sodium dodecyl sulfate -SDS- (from 0.5 to 1.0 g/L) and Tween 80 (from 0 to 7.5 mL/L). Tween 80 was used in a molar relation of 1 to 1 with SDS. A glass cell was used, which was in a thermostatic water bath to keep the system temperature, and the electrodes were cathodic copper as an anode and stainless steel 316-L as a cathode. This process was influenced by the control exerted through the initial copper concentration in the electrolyte and the applied current density. Copper nanoparticles of electrolytic purity, exhibiting a spherical morphology of varying sizes with low dispersion, were successfully produced, contingent upon the chemical composition of the electrolyte and current density. The minimum size achieved was 3.0 nm ± 0.9 nm, with an average standard deviation of 2.2 nm throughout the entire process. The deposited copper mass ranged from 0.394 g to 1.848 g per hour (over an area of 25 cm²), accompanied by an average Faradaic efficiency of 30.8% and an average specific energy consumption of 4.4 kWh/kg. The chemical analysis of the product employed X-ray powder diffraction (XRD), while physical characteristics such as size and morphology were assessed using atomic force microscopy (AFM). It was identified that the initial concentration of copper and the current density are the variables defining the size and dispersion of the nanoparticles, as they serve as reactants in the cathodic half-reaction. The presence of surfactants stabilizes the nanoparticle size as their molecules adsorb onto the nanoparticle surface, forming a thick barrier that prevents mass transfer with the exterior and halts further growth.Keywords: copper nanopowder, electrochemical synthesis, current density, surfactant stabilizer
Procedia PDF Downloads 63795 Good Governance: An Effective Public Participation Approach for Urban Development of City Centers
Authors: Lojaine Okacha
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In the past half-century, researchers started paying attention to enhancing the performance of urban spaces. Their idea of performance comprised urban climate performance, space synthesis, economic performance, and enhancing the quality of life in space. However, they all agreed that the key to achieving any of the previously mentioned development projects is good governance. Having good governance allows citizens to participate freely in the urbanization or development projects within cities. Consequently, using the city resources and assets as efficiently as possible, and ensures the fulfillment of the users’ needs and requests. This paper aims to propose an effective participation framework to help citizens have their voices heard and participate in the decisions that will affect their living situation. The framework allows governments to use their public resources to their best. However, this study focuses on public participation in third-world countries with unitary decentralized governance systems such as Egypt. It summarizes the challenges facing the participation practices, identifies the keys to a successful participation process, and draws on dominant effective participation practice lying on the relationship between the levels of participation, stakeholders participating, the urban development stages, the city-systems, and participation process. These components are integrated to create a real-world effective participation Framework. The results of the analysis were incredible and produced a functional and progressive approach for effective public participation to introduce to the governments. The model itself is combined with additional principles allowing the best practice to the process. The framework is finally compared with a real case of urban development.Keywords: public participation, good governance, urban development, city systems
Procedia PDF Downloads 195794 The Stylistic Representation of Subjectivity in Exemplary Written and Audiovisual Biographical Records about the Brazilian Modernist Artist Tarsila Do Amaral
Authors: Juliane Noack Napoles, Vivian Martins Nogueira Napoles
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This paper operates at the stylistic level of biographical records about the artist Tarsila do Amaral (1886-1973) and the various biographical modes of representation of her subjectivity. Tarsila do Amaral was a Brazilian nationalistic painter, who took part in the first half of the last century in the Antoprofágico Moviment and in the Surrealistic Movement - artistic movements that emerged in the 1920’s. The paper will be developed in the field of Cultural and Media Science and based on an understanding of biography as a subgenre of historical records that will be discussed. Doing that, the theoretical principles about the history genre will also be discussed. In this context, the analytical focus of the present project is the stylistic forms of representation of subjectivity in the postmodern period as expressed in written and audiovisual biographical representation of Tarsila do Amaral. Some exemplary audiovisual biographical records about Tarsila do Amaral will be first analyzed on their own. Then, they will be related to some written biographical records about the painter. At the end, both written and audiovisual records and their stylistic forms of representation of Tarsila do Amaral’s subjectivity are going be analyzed. Tarsila do Amaral will be considered as a Subject Form, following actual concepts about this term in Cultural Studies. For these purposes, it will also be discussed about cultural identity – gender and national identity – and developed a heuristic model so that different understandings and conceptual proposals correlate, including those pertaining to the terms biography, gender, identity, mediality, style, subject and subjectivity. This model will finally be used for the analysis of the selected biographical records.Keywords: biography, gender, identity, modernism, postmodernism, style, subject, subjectivity, surrealism, Tarsila do Amaral
Procedia PDF Downloads 176793 Copper Price Prediction Model for Various Economic Situations
Authors: Haidy S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin
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Copper is an essential raw material used in the construction industry. During the year 2021 and the first half of 2022, the global market suffered from a significant fluctuation in copper raw material prices due to the aftermath of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, which exposed its consumers to an unexpected financial risk. Thereto, this paper aims to develop two ANN-LSTM price prediction models, using Python, that can forecast the average monthly copper prices traded in the London Metal Exchange; the first model is a multivariate model that forecasts the copper price of the next 1-month and the second is a univariate model that predicts the copper prices of the upcoming three months. Historical data of average monthly London Metal Exchange copper prices are collected from January 2009 till July 2022, and potential external factors are identified and employed in the multivariate model. These factors lie under three main categories: energy prices and economic indicators of the three major exporting countries of copper, depending on the data availability. Before developing the LSTM models, the collected external parameters are analyzed with respect to the copper prices using correlation and multicollinearity tests in R software; then, the parameters are further screened to select the parameters that influence the copper prices. Then, the two LSTM models are developed, and the dataset is divided into training, validation, and testing sets. The results show that the performance of the 3-Month prediction model is better than the 1-Month prediction model, but still, both models can act as predicting tools for diverse economic situations.Keywords: copper prices, prediction model, neural network, time series forecasting
Procedia PDF Downloads 113