Search results for: probability

Authors: M. Gulam Kibria, Shourav Ahmed, Kais Zaman

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In system analysis, the information on the uncertain input variables cause uncertainty in the system responses. Different probabilistic approaches for uncertainty representation and propagation in such cases exist in the literature. Different uncertainty representation approaches result in different outputs. Some of the approaches might result in a better estimation of system response than the other approaches. The NASA Langley Multidisciplinary Uncertainty Quantification Challenge (MUQC) has posed challenges about uncertainty quantification. Subproblem A, the uncertainty characterization subproblem, of the challenge posed is addressed in this study. In this subproblem, the challenge is to gather knowledge about unknown model inputs which have inherent aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in them with responses (output) of the given computational model. We use two different methodologies to approach the problem. In the first methodology we use sampling-based uncertainty propagation with first order error analysis. In the other approach we place emphasis on the use of Percentile-Based Optimization (PBO). The NASA Langley MUQC’s subproblem A is developed in such a way that both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties need to be managed. The challenge problem classifies each uncertain parameter as belonging to one the following three types: (i) An aleatory uncertainty modeled as a random variable. It has a fixed functional form and known coefficients. This uncertainty cannot be reduced. (ii) An epistemic uncertainty modeled as a fixed but poorly known physical quantity that lies within a given interval. This uncertainty is reducible. (iii) A parameter might be aleatory but sufficient data might not be available to adequately model it as a single random variable. For example, the parameters of a normal variable, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, might not be precisely known but could be assumed to lie within some intervals. It results in a distributional p-box having the physical parameter with an aleatory uncertainty, but the parameters prescribing its mathematical model are subjected to epistemic uncertainties. Each of the parameters of the random variable is an unknown element of a known interval. This uncertainty is reducible. From the study, it is observed that due to practical limitations or computational expense, the sampling is not exhaustive in sampling-based methodology. That is why the sampling-based methodology has high probability of underestimating the output bounds. Therefore, an optimization-based strategy to convert uncertainty described by interval data into a probabilistic framework is necessary. This is achieved in this study by using PBO.

Keywords: aleatory uncertainty, epistemic uncertainty, first order error analysis, uncertainty quantification, percentile-based optimization

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Authors: Giorgio Bertolazzi, Panayiotis Benos, Michele Tumminello, Claudia Coronnello

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MicroRNAs are small non-coding RNAs that post-transcriptionally regulate the expression levels of messenger RNAs. MicroRNA regulation activity depends on the recognition of binding sites located on mRNA molecules. ComiR (Combinatorial miRNA targeting) is a user friendly web tool realized to predict the targets of a set of microRNAs, starting from their expression profile. ComiR incorporates miRNA expression in a thermodynamic binding model, and it associates each gene with the probability of being a target of a set of miRNAs. ComiR algorithms were trained with the information regarding binding sites in the 3’UTR region, by using a reliable dataset containing the targets of endogenously expressed microRNA in D. melanogaster S2 cells. This dataset was obtained by comparing the results from two different experimental approaches, i.e., inhibition, and immunoprecipitation of the AGO1 protein; this protein is a component of the microRNA induced silencing complex. In this work, we tested whether including coding region binding sites in the ComiR algorithm improves the performance of the tool in predicting microRNA targets. We focused the analysis on the D. melanogaster species and updated the ComiR underlying database with the currently available releases of mRNA and microRNA sequences. As a result, we find that the ComiR algorithm trained with the information related to the coding regions is more efficient in predicting the microRNA targets, with respect to the algorithm trained with 3’utr information. On the other hand, we show that 3’utr based predictions can be seen as complementary to the coding region based predictions, which suggests that both predictions, from 3'UTR and coding regions, should be considered in a comprehensive analysis. Furthermore, we observed that the lists of targets obtained by analyzing data from one experimental approach only, that is, inhibition or immunoprecipitation of AGO1, are not reliable enough to test the performance of our microRNA target prediction algorithm. Further analysis will be conducted to investigate the effectiveness of the tool with data from other species, provided that validated datasets, as obtained from the comparison of RISC proteins inhibition and immunoprecipitation experiments, will be available for the same samples. Finally, we propose to upgrade the existing ComiR web-tool by including the coding region based trained model, available together with the 3’UTR based one.

Keywords: AGO1, coding region, Drosophila melanogaster, microRNA target prediction

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Authors: Sohyoung Won, Heebal Kim, Dajeong Lim

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Genomic prediction is an effective way to measure the abilities of livestock for breeding based on genomic estimated breeding values, statistically predicted values from genotype data using best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP). Using haplotypes, clusters of linked single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), as markers instead of individual SNPs can improve the reliability of genomic prediction since the probability of a quantitative trait loci to be in strong linkage disequilibrium (LD) with markers is higher. To efficiently use haplotypes in genomic prediction, finding optimal ways to define haplotypes is needed. In this study, 770K SNP chip data was collected from Hanwoo (Korean cattle) population consisted of 2506 cattle. Haplotypes were first defined in three different ways using 770K SNP chip data: haplotypes were defined based on 1) length of haplotypes (bp), 2) the number of SNPs, and 3) k-medoids clustering by LD. To compare the methods in parallel, haplotypes defined by all methods were set to have comparable sizes; in each method, haplotypes defined to have an average number of 5, 10, 20 or 50 SNPs were tested respectively. A modified GBLUP method using haplotype alleles as predictor variables was implemented for testing the prediction reliability of each haplotype set. Also, conventional genomic BLUP (GBLUP) method, which uses individual SNPs were tested to evaluate the performance of the haplotype sets on genomic prediction. Carcass weight was used as the phenotype for testing. As a result, using haplotypes defined by all three methods showed increased reliability compared to conventional GBLUP. There were not many differences in the reliability between different haplotype defining methods. The reliability of genomic prediction was highest when the average number of SNPs per haplotype was 20 in all three methods, implying that haplotypes including around 20 SNPs can be optimal to use as markers for genomic prediction. When the number of alleles generated by each haplotype defining methods was compared, clustering by LD generated the least number of alleles. Using haplotype alleles for genomic prediction showed better performance, suggesting improved accuracy in genomic selection. The number of predictor variables was decreased when the LD-based method was used while all three haplotype defining methods showed similar performances. This suggests that defining haplotypes based on LD can reduce computational costs and allows efficient prediction. Finding optimal ways to define haplotypes and using the haplotype alleles as markers can provide improved performance and efficiency in genomic prediction.

Keywords: best linear unbiased predictor, genomic prediction, haplotype, linkage disequilibrium

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Authors: Amritee Bora, B. S. Mipun

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Land degradation is often used to describe the land environmental phenomena that reduce land’s original productivity both qualitatively and quantitatively. The study of land degradation vulnerability primarily deals with “Environmentally Sensitive Areas” (ESA) and the amount of topsoil loss due to erosion. In many studies, it is observed that the assessment of the existing status of land degradation is used to represent the vulnerability. Moreover, it is also noticed that in most studies, the primary emphasis of land degradation vulnerability is to assess its sensitivity to soil erosion only. However, the concept of land degradation vulnerability can have different objectives depending upon the perspective of the study. It shows the extent to which changes in land use land cover can imprint their effect on the land. In other words, it represents the susceptibility of a piece of land to degrade its productive quality permanently or in the long run. It is also important to mention that the vulnerability of land degradation is not a single factor outcome. It is a probability assessment to evaluate the status of land degradation and needs to consider both biophysical and human induce parameters. To avoid the complexity of the previous models in this regard, the present study has emphasized on to generate a simplified model to assess the land degradation vulnerability in terms of its current human population pressure, land use practices, and existing biophysical conditions. It is a “Mixed-Method” termed as the land degradation vulnerability index (LDVi). It was originally inspired by the MEDALUS model (Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use), 1999, and Farazadeh’s 2007 revised version of it. It has followed the guidelines of Space Application Center, Ahmedabad / Indian Space Research Organization for land degradation vulnerability. The model integrates the climatic index (Ci), vegetation index (Vi), erosion index (Ei), land utilization index (Li), population pressure index (Pi), and cover management index (CMi) by giving equal weightage to each parameter. The final result shows that the very high vulnerable zone primarily indicates three (3) prominent circumstances; land under continuous population pressure, high concentration of human settlement, and high amount of topsoil loss due to surface runoff within the study sites. As all the parameters of the model are amalgamated with equal weightage further with the help of regression analysis, the LDVi model also provides a strong grasp of each parameter and how far they are competent to trigger the land degradation process.

Keywords: population pressure, land utilization, soil erosion, land degradation vulnerability

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Authors: Idit Kalisher, Israel Luski

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One result of the growing dynamicity of labor markets in recent decades is a wider scope of employment mobility – i.e., transitions between employers, either within or between careers. Employment mobility decisions are primarily affected by the current employment status of the worker, which is reflected in wage and tenure. Using 34,328 observations from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLS79), which were derived from the USA population between 1990 and 2012, this paper aims to investigate the effects of wage and tenure over employment mobility choices, and additionally to examine the effects of other personal characteristics, individual labor market characteristics and macroeconomic factors. The estimation strategy was designed to address two challenges that arise from the combination of the model and the data: (a) endogeneity of the wage and the tenure in the choice equation; and (b) unobserved heterogeneity, as the data of this research is longitudinal. To address (a), estimation was performed using two-stage limited dependent variable procedure (2SLDV); and to address (b), the second stage was estimated using femlogit – an implementation of the multinomial logit model with fixed effects. Among workers who have experienced at least one turnover, the wage was found to have a main effect on career turnover likelihood of all workers, whereas the wage effect on job turnover likelihood was found to be dependent on individual characteristics. The wage was found to negatively affect the turnover likelihood and the effect was found to vary across wage level: high-wage workers were more affected compared to low-wage workers. Tenure was found to have a main positive effect on both turnover types’ likelihoods, though the effect was moderated by the wage. The findings also reveal that as their wage increases, women are more likely to turnover than men, and academically educated workers are more likely to turnover within careers. Minorities were found to be as likely as Caucasians to turnover post wage-increase, but less likely to turnover with each additional tenure year. The wage and the tenure effects were found to vary also between careers. The difference in attitude towards money, labor market opportunities and risk aversion could explain these findings. Additionally, the likelihood of a turnover was found to be affected by previous unemployment spells, age, and other labor market and personal characteristics. The results of this research could assist policymakers as well as business owners and employers. The former may be able to encourage women and older workers’ employment by considering the effects of gender and age on the probability of a turnover, and the latter may be able to assess their employees’ likelihood of a turnover by considering the effects of their personal characteristics.

Keywords: employment mobility, endogeneity, femlogit, turnover

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Authors: C. Romero, R. Ortega, P. Sánchez-Camacho, P. Aguilar, V. Segur, J. Ruiz, G. Gutiérrez

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Introduction: Breast cancer is a leading cause of death in CLM. (2.8% of all deaths in women and 13,8% of deaths from tumors in womens). It is the most tumor incidence in CLM region with 26.1% from all tumours, except nonmelanoma skin (Cancer Incidence in Five Continents, Volume X, IARC). Cancer registries are a good information source to estimate cancer incidence, however the data are usually available with a lag which makes difficult their use for health managers. By contrast, mortality and survival statistics have less delay. In order to serve for resource planning and responding to this problem, a method is presented to estimate the incidence of mortality and survival data. Objectives: To estimate the incidence of breast cancer by age group in CLM in the period 1991-2013. Comparing the data obtained from the model with current incidence data. Sources: Annual number of women by single ages (National Statistics Institute). Annual number of deaths by all causes and breast cancer. (Mortality Registry CLM). The Breast cancer relative survival probability. (EUROCARE, Spanish registries data). Methods: A Weibull Parametric survival model from EUROCARE data is obtained. From the model of survival, the population and population data, Mortality and Incidence Analysis MODel (MIAMOD) regression model is obtained to estimate the incidence of cancer by age (1991-2013). Results: The resulting model is: Ix,t = Logit [const + age1*x + age2*x2 + coh1*(t – x) + coh2*(t-x)2] Where: Ix,t is the incidence at age x in the period (year) t; the value of the parameter estimates is: const (constant term in the model) = -7.03; age1 = 3.31; age2 = -1.10; coh1 = 0.61 and coh2 = -0.12. It is estimated that in 1991 were diagnosed in CLM 662 cases of breast cancer (81.51 per 100,000 women). An estimated 1,152 cases (112.41 per 100,000 women) were diagnosed in 2013, representing an increase of 40.7% in gross incidence rate (1.9% per year). The annual average increases in incidence by age were: 2.07% in women aged 25-44 years, 1.01% (45-54 years), 1.11% (55-64 years) and 1.24% (65-74 years). Cancer registries in Spain that send data to IARC declared 2003-2007 the average annual incidence rate of 98.6 cases per 100,000 women. Our model can obtain an incidence of 100.7 cases per 100,000 women. Conclusions: A sharp and steady increase in the incidence of breast cancer in the period 1991-2013 is observed. The increase was seen in all age groups considered, although it seems more pronounced in young women (25-44 years). With this method you can get a good estimation of the incidence.

Keywords: breast cancer, incidence, cancer registries, castilla-la mancha

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Authors: S. R. Dehghani, G. F. Naterer, Y. S. Muzychka

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Wave-impact sea spray creates many droplets which form a spray cloud traveling over marine objects same as marine vessels and offshore structures. In cold climates such as Arctic reigns, sea spray icing, which is ice accretion on cold substrates, is strongly dependent on the wave-impact sea spray. The rate of cooling of droplets affects the process of icing that can yield to dry or wet ice accretion. Trajectories of droplets determine the potential places for ice accretion. Combining two models of trajectories and heat transfer for droplets can predict the risk of ice accretion reasonably. The majority of the cooling of droplets is because of droplet evaporations. In this study, a combined model using trajectory and heat transfer evaluate the situation of a cloud of spray from the generation to impingement. The model uses some known geometry and initial information from the previous case studies. The 3D model is solved numerically using a standard numerical scheme. Droplets are generated in various size ranges from 7 mm to 0.07 mm which is a suggested range for sea spray icing. The initial temperature of droplets is considered to be the sea water temperature. Wind velocities are assumed same as that of the field observations. Evaluations are conducted using some important heading angles and wind velocities. The characteristic of size-velocity dependence is used to establish a relation between initial sizes and velocities of droplets. Time intervals are chosen properly to maintain a stable and fast numerical solution. A statistical process is conducted to evaluate the probability of expected occurrences. The medium size droplets can reach the highest heights. Very small and very large droplets are limited to lower heights. Results show that higher initial velocities create the most expanded cloud of spray. Wind velocities affect the extent of the spray cloud. The rate of droplet cooling at the start of spray formation is higher than the rest of the process. This is because of higher relative velocities and also higher temperature differences. The amount of water delivery and overall temperature for some sample surfaces over a marine vessel are calculated. Comparing results and some field observations show that the model works accurately. This model is suggested as a primary model for ice accretion on marine vessels.

Keywords: evaporation, sea spray, marine icing, numerical solution, trajectory

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Authors: Mohamed Abdelkareem

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Remote sensing data contributed on predicting the prospective areas of water resources. Integration of microwave and multispectral data along with climatic, hydrologic, and geological data has been used here. In this article, Sentinel-2, Landsat-8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), and Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) Phased Array Type L‐band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR) data were utilized to identify the geological, hydrologic and structural features of Wadi Asyuti which represents a defunct tributary of the Nile basin, in the eastern Sahara. The image transformation of Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 data allowed characterizing the different varieties of rock units. Integration of microwave remotely-sensed data and GIS techniques provided information on physical characteristics of catchments and rainfall zones that are of a crucial role for mapping groundwater prospective zones. A fused Landsat-8 OLI and ALOS/PALSAR data improved the structural elements that difficult to reveal using optical data. Lineament extraction and interpretation indicated that the area is clearly shaped by the NE-SW graben that is cut by NW-SE trend. Such structures allowed the accumulation of thick sediments in the downstream area. Processing of recent OLI data acquired on March 15, 2014, verified the flood potential maps and offered the opportunity to extract the extent of the flooding zone of the recent flash flood event (March 9, 2014), as well as revealed infiltration characteristics. Several layers including geology, slope, topography, drainage density, lineament density, soil characteristics, rainfall, and morphometric characteristics were combined after assigning a weight for each using a GIS-based knowledge-driven approach. The results revealed that the predicted groundwater potential zones (GPZs) can be arranged into six distinctive groups, depending on their probability for groundwater, namely very low, low, moderate, high very, high, and excellent. Field and well data validated the delineated zones.

Keywords: GIS, remote sensing, groundwater, Egypt

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Authors: Osama Moustafa Zayed

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Aim of the work: To evaluate the effectiveness of venous glucose, levels of serum lactate and base deficit in polytraumatized patients as simple parameters to predict the mortality in these patients. Compared to the predictive value of Trauma and injury severity (TRISS) and Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation IV (APACHE IV). Introduction: Trauma is a serious global health problem, accounting for approximately one in 10 deaths worldwide. Trauma accounts for 5 million deaths per year. Prediction of mortality in trauma patients is an important part of trauma care. Several trauma scores have been devised to predict injury severity and risk of mortality. The trauma and injury severity score (TRISS) was most common used. Regardless of the accuracy of trauma scores, is based on an anatomical description of every injury and cannot be assigned to the patients until a full diagnostic procedure has been performed. So we hypothesized that alterations in admission glucose, lactate levels and base deficit would be an early and easy rapid predictor of mortality. Patient and Method: a comparative cross-sectional study. 282 Polytraumatized patients attended to the Emergency Department(ED) of the Suez Canal university Hospital constituted. The period from 1/1/2012 to 1/4/2013 was included. Results: We found that the best cut off value of TRISS probability of survival score for prediction of mortality among poly-traumatized patients is = 90, with 77% sensitivity and 89% specificity using area under the ROC curve (0.89) at (95%CI). APACHE IV demonstrated 67% sensitivity and 95% specificity at 95% CI at cut off point 99. The best cutoff value of Random Blood Sugar (RBS) for prediction of mortality was>140 mg/dl, with 89%, sensitivity, 49% specificity. The best cut off value of base deficit for prediction of mortality was less than -5.6 with 64% sensitivity, 93% specificity. The best cutoff point of lactate for prediction of mortality was > 2.6 mmol/L with 92%, sensitivity, 42% specificity. Conclusion: According to our results from all evaluated predictors of mortality (laboratory and scores) and mortality based on the estimated cutoff values using ROC curves analysis, the highest risk of mortality was found using a cutoff value of 90 in TRISS score while with laboratory parameters the highest risk of mortality was with serum lactate > 2.6 . Although that all of the three parameter are accurate in predicting mortality in poly-traumatized patients and near with each other, as in serum lactate the area under the curve 0.82, in BD 0.79 and 0.77 in RBS.

Keywords: APACHE IV, emergency department, polytraumatized patients, serum lactate

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Authors: Christian Skowronski, Andrew Shanholtzer, Brent Yelton, Muayad Almahariq, Daniel J. Krauss

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Prostate cancer has the third highest incidence rate and is the second leading cause of cancer death for men in the United States. Of the diagnostic tools available for intermediate-risk prostate cancer, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) provides superior soft tissue delineation serving as a valuable tool for both diagnosis and treatment planning. Currently, there is minimal data regarding the practical utility of MRI for evaluation of intermediate-risk prostate cancer. As such, the National Comprehensive Cancer Network’s guidelines indicate MRI as optional in intermediate-risk prostate cancer evaluation. This project aims to elucidate whether MRI affects radiation treatment decisions for intermediate-risk prostate cancer. This was a retrospective study evaluating 210 patients with intermediate-risk prostate cancer, treated with definitive radiotherapy at our institution between 2019-2020. NCCN risk stratification criteria were used to define intermediate-risk prostate cancer. Patients were divided into two groups: those with pretreatment prostate MRI, and those without pretreatment prostate MRI. We compared the use of external beam radiotherapy, brachytherapy alone, brachytherapy boost, and androgen depravation therapy between the two groups. Inverse probability of treatment weighting was used to match the two groups for age, comorbidity index, American Urologic Association symptoms index, pretreatment PSA, grade group, and percent core involvement on prostate biopsy. Wilcoxon Rank Sum and Chi-squared tests were used to compare continuous and categorical variables. Of the patients who met the study’s eligibility criteria, 133 had a prostate MRI and 77 did not. Following propensity matching, there were no differences between baseline characteristics between the two groups. There were no statistically significant differences in treatments pursued between the two groups: 42% vs 47% were treated with brachytherapy alone, 40% vs 42% were treated with external beam radiotherapy alone, 18% vs 12% were treated with external beam radiotherapy with a brachytherapy boost, and 24% vs 17% received androgen deprivation therapy in the non-MRI and MRI groups, respectively. This analysis suggests that pretreatment MRI does not significantly impact radiation therapy or androgen deprivation therapy decisions in patients with intermediate-risk prostate cancer. Obtaining a pretreatment prostate MRI should be used judiciously and pursued only to answer a specific question, for which the answer is likely to impact treatment decision. Further follow up is needed to correlate MRI findings with their impacts on specific oncologic outcomes.

Keywords: magnetic resonance imaging, prostate cancer, definitive radiotherapy, gleason score 7

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Authors: Gulnara Galeeva, Yulia Kasperskaya

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The study deals with the relevant problem related to the formation of the efficient investment portfolio of an enterprise. The structure of the investment portfolio is connected to the degree of influence of intangible assets on the enterprise’s income. This determines the importance of research on the content of intangible assets. However, intangible assets studies do not take into consideration how the enterprise state can affect the content and the importance of intangible assets for the enterprise`s income. This affects accurateness of the calculations. In order to study this problem, the research was divided into several stages. In the first stage, intangible assets were classified based on their synergies as the underlying intangibles and the additional intangibles. In the second stage, this classification was applied. It showed that the lifecycle model and the theory of abrupt development of the enterprise, that are taken into account while designing investment projects, constitute limit cases of a more general theory of bifurcations. The research identified that the qualitative content of intangible assets significant depends on how close the enterprise is to being in crisis. In the third stage, the author developed and applied the Wide Pairwise Comparison Matrix method. This allowed to establish that using the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean value of the elements of the vector of priority of intangible assets makes it possible to estimate the probability of a full-blown crisis of the enterprise. The author has identified a criterion, which allows making fundamental decisions on investment feasibility. The study also developed an additional rapid method of assessing the enterprise overall status based on using the questionnaire survey with its Director. The questionnaire consists only of two questions. The research specifically focused on the fundamental role of stochastic resonance in the emergence of bifurcation (crisis) in the economic development of the enterprise. The synergetic approach made it possible to describe the mechanism of the crisis start in details and also to identify a range of universal ways of overcoming the crisis. It was outlined that the structure of intangible assets transforms into a more organized state with the strengthened synchronization of all processes as a result of the impact of the sporadic (white) noise. Obtained results offer managers and business owners a simple and an affordable method of investment portfolio optimization, which takes into account how close the enterprise is to a state of a full-blown crisis.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, bifurcation, investment portfolio, intangible assets, wide matrix

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Authors: Dedjo Yao Simon, Takahiro Saito, Norikazu Inuzuka, Ikuo Sugiyama

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Abidjan city (Republic of Ivory Coast) is an emerging megacity and an urban coastal area where the number of floods reported is on a rapid increase due to climate change and unplanned urbanization. However, comprehensive disaster mitigation plans, policies, and financial resources are still lacking as the population ignores the extent and location of the flood zones; making them unprepared to mitigate the damages. Considering the existing condition, this paper aims to discuss an approach for flood risk reduction in Cocody Commune through value capture strategy and flood risk communication. Using geospatial techniques and hydrological simulation, we start our study by delineating flood zones and depths under several return periods in the study area. Then, through a questionnaire a field survey is conducted in order to validate the flood maps, to estimate the flood risk and to collect some sample of the opinion of residents on how the flood risk information disclosure could affect the values of property located inside and outside the flood zones. The results indicate that the study area is highly vulnerable to 5-year floods and more, which can cause serious harm to human lives and to properties as demonstrated by the extent of the 5-year flood of 2014. Also, it is revealed there is a high probability that the values of property located within flood zones could decline, and the values of surrounding property in the safe area could increase when risk information disclosure commences. However in order to raise public awareness of flood disaster and to prevent future housing promotion in high-risk prospective areas, flood risk information should be disseminated through the establishment of an early warning system. In order to reduce the effect of risk information disclosure and to protect the values of property within the high-risk zone, we propose that property tax increments in flood free zones should be captured and be utilized for infrastructure development and to maintain the early warning system that will benefit people living in flood prone areas. Through this case study, it is shown that combination of value capture strategy and risk communication could be an effective tool to educate citizen and to invest in flood risk reduction in emerging countries.

Keywords: Cocody-Abidjan, flood, geospatial techniques, risk communication, value capture

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Authors: Shriya Chawla, Vinayak Malhotra

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Space exploration has noted an exponential rise in the past two decades. The world has started probing the alternatives for efficient and resourceful sustenance along with utilization of advanced technology viz., satellites on earth. Space propulsion forms the core of space exploration. Of all the issues encountered, space debris has increasingly threatened the space exploration and propulsion. The efforts have resulted in the presence of disastrous space debris fragments orbiting the earth at speeds up to several kilometres per hour. Debris are well known as a potential damage to the future missions with immense loss of resources, mankind, and huge amount of money is invested in active research on them. Appreciable work had been done in the past relating to active space debris-removal technologies such as harpoon, net, drag sail. The primary emphasis is laid on confined removal. In recently, remove debris spacecraft was used for servicing and capturing cargo ships. Airbus designed and planned the debris-catching net experiment, aboard the spacecraft. The spacecraft represents largest payload deployed from the space station. However, the magnitude of the issue suggests that active space debris-removal technologies, such as harpoons and nets, still would not be enough. Thus, necessitating the need for better and operative space debris removal system. Techniques based on diverting the path of debris or the spacecraft to avert damage have turned out minimal usage owing to limited predictions. Present work focuses on an active hybrid space debris removal system. The work is motivated by the need to have safer and efficient space missions. The specific objectives of the work are 1) to thoroughly analyse the existing and conventional debris removal techniques, their working, effectiveness and limitations under varying conditions, 2) to understand the role of key controlling parameters in coupled operation of debris capturing and removal. The system represents the utilization of the latest autonomous technology available with an adaptable structural design for operations under varying conditions. The design covers advantages of most of the existing technologies while removing the disadvantages. The system is likely to enhance the probability of effective space debris removal. At present, systematic theoretical study is being carried out to thoroughly observe the effects of pseudo-random debris occurrences and to originate an optimal design with much better features and control.

Keywords: space exploration, debris removal, space crafts, space accidents

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Authors: Jeewantha Ranawaka, Gunawardane Kapila, Wijethunaga Mudiyanselage B. G. Jayathilake

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Introduction: Sweeping of the membranes is a fairly simple technique that may positively influence the shift from maintenance of pregnancy to the beginning of labor. Objective: To assess the effectiveness and acceptability of twice versus once-only membrane sweeping in uncomplicated primi gravid at 40 weeks of gestational age in a tertiary care hospital in Sri Lanka. Methods: A randomized controlled clinical trial was done in Ward 05 of Teaching Hospital, Kandy. The participants were primi-gravida with a singleton live fetus who was at 40 weeks of gestation with intact fetal membranes and with a Modified Bishop’s score <5. After randomization both groups received membrane sweeping at 40 weeks of gestation and the experimental group received membrane sweeping after 48 hours (40+2 days). The modified Bishop Score was assessed at 40+5 days. In two groups who did not go into natural labor at 40+5 days were managed according to the ward policy of cervical ripening and with labor induction at 40+5 days. Two different methods were used to assess discomfort and pain. Patient acceptability was assessed using recommendation to another patient and acceptance during next pregnancy. Perinatal, maternal and labour outcomes were assessed. Results: A change of the Bishops score was 67.3% (n= 31 of 46) in experimental group whereas in control group it was 57.5% (n= 38 of 66). (p = 0.21, OR-1.52, CI = 0.6 -3.34). Mean (SD) of Modified Bishop score was 6.36 (1.94) in experimental group and 6.03 (.84) in control group (p = 0.354). The probability of having the spontaneous onset of labour in experimental group was 61.6% (n=74 of 120) whereas in control group it was 45% (n= 54 of 120) (p=0.01, OR-1.966, CI = 1.17 – 3.28 NNT = 5.99). Recommending the method to another among experimental group was 75% (n= 90 of 120) whereas in control group it was 79.2% (n= 95 of 120) (p= 0.443). Accepting membrane Sweeping for subsequent pregnancy among experimental was 72.5% (n=87 of 120) whereas in control group was 72.5% (n=87 of 120) (p= 1.00) Need of formal induction of labour at 40+ 5 days in experimental group was 38.4% (n=46 of 120) whereas in control group was 61.6% (n=66 of 120) (p=0.01, OR=0.5, CI= 0.3 – 0.8, NNT=6). Neonatal outcome, labour outcome such as Cesarean -section rate, need for augmentation and maternal complications such as fever, Premature rupture of membrane, bleeding were comparable in two groups. Conclusions and Recommendations: It can be concluded that twice sweeping of membrane was effective to reduce the need of formal induction of labour and increase the chances of having spontaneous onset of labour (SOL) at 40+5 days without increasing maternal or fetal morbidity. Acceptability of twice sweeping is not different from sweeping once. Hence we recommend consideration of multiple membranes sweeping as first line for women at 40 weeks of gestation.

Keywords: acceptability, induction, labour, membrane sweeping

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Authors: Adel S. Alanazi

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The transition of a student with a disability from school to work is the most crucial phase while moving from the stage of adolescence into early adulthood. In this process, young individuals face various difficulties and challenges in order to accomplish the next venture of life successfully. In this respect, this paper aims to examine the challenges encountered by the individuals with intellectual disabilities in transition to work in Saudi Arabia. For this purpose, this study has undertaken a qualitative research-based methodology; wherein interpretivist philosophy has been followed along with inductive approach and exploratory research design. The data for the research has been gathered with the help of semi-structured interviews, whose findings are analysed with the help of thematic analysis. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with parents of persons with intellectual disabilities, officials, supervisors and specialists of two vocational rehabilitation centres providing training to intellectually disabled students, in addition to that, directors of companies and websites in hiring those individuals. The total number of respondents for the interview was 15. The purposive sampling method was used to select the respondents for the interview. This sampling method is a non-probability sampling method which draws respondents from a known population and allows flexibility and suitability in selecting the participants for the study. The findings gathered from the interview revealed that the lack of awareness among their parents regarding the rights of their children who are intellectually disabled; the lack of adequate communication and coordination between various entities; concerns regarding their training and subsequent employment are the key difficulties experienced by the individuals with intellectual disabilities. Training in programmes such as bookbinding, carpentry, computing, agriculture, electricity and telephone exchange operations were involved as key training programmes. The findings of this study also revealed that information technology and media were playing a significant role in smoothing the transition to employment of individuals with intellectual disabilities. Furthermore, religious and cultural attitudes have been identified to be restricted for people with such disabilities in seeking advantages from job opportunities. On the basis of these findings, it can be implied that the information gathered through this study will serve to be highly beneficial for Saudi Arabian schools/ rehabilitation centres for individuals with intellectual disability to facilitate them in overcoming the problems they encounter during the transition to work.

Keywords: intellectual disability, transition services, rehabilitation centre, employment

Procedia PDF Downloads 160

Authors: M. A. C. S. Sampath Fernando, James M. Curran, Renate Meyer

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Forensic DNA analysis has received much attention over the last three decades, due to its incredible usefulness in human identification. The statistical interpretation of DNA evidence is recognised as one of the most mature fields in forensic science. Peak heights in an Electropherogram (EPG) are approximately proportional to the amount of template DNA in the original sample being tested. A stutter is a minor peak in an EPG, which is not masking as an allele of a potential contributor, and considered as an artefact that is presumed to be arisen due to miscopying or slippage during the PCR. Stutter peaks are mostly analysed in terms of stutter ratio that is calculated relative to the corresponding parent allele height. Analysis of mixture profiles has always been problematic in evidence interpretation, especially with the presence of PCR artefacts like stutters. Unlike binary and semi-continuous models; continuous models assign a probability (as a continuous weight) for each possible genotype combination, and significantly enhances the use of continuous peak height information resulting in more efficient reliable interpretations. Therefore, the presence of a sound methodology to distinguish between stutters and real alleles is essential for the accuracy of the interpretation. Sensibly, any such method has to be able to focus on modelling stutter peaks. Bayesian nonparametric methods provide increased flexibility in applied statistical modelling. Mixture models are frequently employed as fundamental data analysis tools in clustering and classification of data and assume unidentified heterogeneous sources for data. In model-based clustering, each unknown source is reflected by a cluster, and the clusters are modelled using parametric models. Specifying the number of components in finite mixture models, however, is practically difficult even though the calculations are relatively simple. Infinite mixture models, in contrast, do not require the user to specify the number of components. Instead, a Dirichlet process, which is an infinite-dimensional generalization of the Dirichlet distribution, is used to deal with the problem of a number of components. Chinese restaurant process (CRP), Stick-breaking process and Pólya urn scheme are frequently used as Dirichlet priors in Bayesian mixture models. In this study, we illustrate an infinite mixture of simple linear regression models for modelling stutter ratio and introduce some modifications to overcome weaknesses associated with CRP.

Keywords: Chinese restaurant process, Dirichlet prior, infinite mixture model, PCR stutter

Procedia PDF Downloads 331

Authors: Priyanka V. Janbandhu, Santosh B. Phad, Dhananjay W. Bansod

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The current changing scenario of the family is a compelling aged group not only to be alone in a nuclear family but also to join the old age institutions. The consequences of it are feeling of neglected or left alone by the children, adding a touch of helpless in the absence of lack of expected care and support. The accretion of all these feelings and unpleasant events ignite a question in their mind that – who is there for me? The efforts have taken to highlight the issues of the elderly after joining the old age home and their perception about the current life as an institutional inmate. This attempt to cover up the condition, adjustment, changed lifestyle and perspective in the association with several issues of the elderly, which have an essential effect on their well-being. The present research piece has collected the information about institutionalized elderly with the help of a semi-structured questionnaire. This study interviewed 500 respondents from 22 old age homes of Pune city of Maharashtra State, India. This data collection methodology consists of Multi-stage random sampling. In which the stratified random sampling adopted for the selection of old age homes and sample size determination, sample selection probability proportional to the size and simple random sampling techniques implemented. The study provides that around five percent of the elderly shifted to old age home along with their spouse, whereas ten percent of the elderly are staying away from their spouse. More than 71 percent of the elderly have children, and they are an involuntary inmate of the old age institution, even less than one-third of the elderly consulted to the institution before the joining it. More than sixty percent of the elderly have children, but they joined institution due to the unpleasant response of their children only. Around half of the elderly responded that there are issues while adjusting to this environment, many of them are still persistent. At least one elderly out of ten is there who is suffering from the feeling of loneliness and left out by children and other family members. In contrast, around 97 percent of the elderly are very happy or satisfied with the institutional facilities. It illustrates that the issues are associated with their children and other family members, even though they left their home before a year or more. When enquired about this loneliness feeling few of them are suffering from it before leaving their homes, it was due to lack of interaction with children, as they are too busy to have time for the aged parents. Additionally, the conflicts or fights within the family due to the presence of old persons in the family contributed to establishing another feeling of insignificance among the elderly parents. According to these elderly, have more than 70 percent of the share, the children are ready to spend money indirectly for us through these institutions, but not prepared to provide some time and very few amounts of all this expenditure directly for us.

Keywords: elderly, old age homes, life style changes and adjustment, India

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Authors: Robert Ab Butarbutar, Sutan Musa Buyana

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Purpose: The purpose of this study is to empirically test the correlation between several variables: perceived quality, overall customer satisfaction and brand attitude to brand loyalty on Maxim magazine in Indonesia. Since the room of adult magazine in Indonesia is restricted, the study of this category has became so interesting to reveal how those variables occur. Design/ methodology/ approach: The combination of exploratory, descriptive and causal research design used in this study. Non-probability sampling, specifically purposive sampling used to determine 160 respondents. Path analysis used to examine the contribution of antecedents variables, perceived quality, overall satisfaction and brand attitude in contribution to brand loyalty. Additional respondents serve for in-depth interview to enrich findings from questionnaire that directly distributed. Findings: The research shows that perceived quality positively contribute to overall satisfaction and brand attitude. Overall satisfaction also positively influence brand attitude and brand loyalty. Finally, brand attitude directly impact to brand loyalty. Despite the hypothesis testing, qualitative research also shows specific behavior of Indonesian customer in consuming adult magazine. Research limitation/implication: This research limited to adult male (18 years at minimum) and who live in big city as Jakarta. Broader geographical coverage is advisable for further research. This study also serves a call for additional empirical research into different product category that targeted to adult male, Since the research of this segment is quite scarce. Managerial Implications: Since findings show perceived quality positively impact and strong contribute to overall satisfaction and brand attitude, it implies for adult magazine to be driven by quality of content. The selection of model, information of current lifestyle of urban male became prioritizes in developing perceived quality. Differentiation also emerges as critical issues since consumer difficult to differentiate significantly one magazine to another. The way magazine deliver its content toward distinctive communication is highly recommended. Furthermore, brand loyalty faces big challenge. Interactivity toward events and social media become critically important. Originality/ value: perceived quality plays as prerequisite to develop overall satisfaction and brand attitude. Finding shows customer difficult to differentiate among adult magazines. Therefore, brand loyalty become a big challenge for company.

Keywords: perceived quality, overall satisfaction, brand attitude, adult magazine

Procedia PDF Downloads 408

Authors: Mengestie Mulugeta Belay, Serebe Abay Gebrie, Biruk Lambbiso Wamisho, Amare Worku

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Background: Low back pain (LBP) related to nursing profession, is a very common public health problem throughout the world. Various risk factors have been implicated in the etiology and LBP is assumed to be of multi-factorial origin as individual, work-related and psychosocial factors can contribute to its development. Objectives: To determine the prevalence and to identify risk factors of LBP among nurses working in Addis Ababa City Public Hospitals, Ethiopia, in the year 2015. Settings: Addis Ababa University, Black-Lion (‘Tikur Anbessa’) Hospital-BLH, is the country’s highest tertiary level referral and teaching Hospital. The three departments in connection with this study: Radiology, Pathology and Orthopedics, run undergraduate and residency programs and receive referred patients from all over the country. Methods: A cross-sectional study with internal comparison was conducted throughout the period October-December, 2015. Sample was chosen by simple random sampling technique by taken the lists of nurses from human resource departments as a sampling frame. A well-structured, pre-tested and self-administered questionnaire was used to collect quantifiable information. The questionnaire included socio-demographic, back pain features, consequences of back pain, work-related and psychosocial factors. The collected data was entered into EpiInfo version 3.5.4 and was analyzed by SPSS. A probability level of 0.05 or less and 95% confidence level was used to indicate statistical significance. Ethical clearance was obtained from all respected administrative bodies, Hospitals and study participants. Results: The study included 395 nurses and gave a response rate of 91.9%. The mean age was 30.6 (±8.4) years. Majority of the respondents were female (285, 72.2%). Nearly half of the participants (n=181, 45.8% (95% CI (40.8%- 50.6%))) were complained low back pain. There was statistical significant association between low back pain and working shift, physical activities at work; sleep disturbance and felt little pleasure by doing things. Conclusion: A high prevalence of low back pain was found among nurses working in Addis Ababa Public Hospitals. Recognition and preventive measures like providing resting periods should be taken to reduce the risk of low back pain in nurses working in Public hospitals.

Keywords: low back pain, risk factors, nurses, public hospitals

Procedia PDF Downloads 314

Authors: Rutcher M. Lacaza, Stephen Jun V. Villejo

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This paper investigated the patterns of private transfers in the Philippines using the Family Income Expenditure Survey (FIES) 2009, conducted by the Philippine government’s National Statistics Office (NSO) every three years. The paper performed bivariate analysis on net transfers, using the identified determinants for a household to be either a net receiver or a net giver. The household characteristics considered are the following: age, sex, marital status, employment status and educational attainment of the household head, and also size, location, pre-transfer income and the number of employed members of the household. The variables net receiver and net giver are determined by computing the net transfer, subtracting total gifts from total receipts. The receipts are defined as the sum of cash received from abroad, cash received from domestic sources, total gifts received and inheritance. While gifts are defined as the sum of contributions and donations to church and other religious institutions, contributions and donations to other institutions, gifts and contributions to others, and gifts and assistance to private individuals outside the family. Both in kind and in cash transfers are considered in the analysis. It also performed a multiple regression analysis on transfers received and income including other household characteristics to examine the motives for giving transfers – whether altruism or exchanged. It also used the binary logistic regression to estimate the probability of being a net receiver or net giver given the household characteristics. The study revealed that receiving tends to be universal – both the non-poor and the poor benefit although the poor receive substantially less than the non-poor. Regardless of whether households are net receivers or net givers, households in the upper deciles generally give and receive more than those in the lower deciles. It also appears that private transfers may just flow within economic groups. Big amounts of transfers are, therefore, directed to the non-poor and the small amounts go to the poor. This was also supported by the increasing function of gross transfers received and the income of households – the poor receiving less and the non-poor receiving more. This is contrary to the theory that private transfers can help equalize the distribution of income. This suggested that private transfers in the Philippines are not altruistically motivated but exchanged. However, bilateral data on transfers received or given is needed to test this theory directly. The results showed that transfers are much needed by the poor and it is important to understand the nature of private transfers, to ensure that government transfer programs are properly designed and targeted so as to prevent the duplication of private safety nets already present among the non-poor.

Keywords: private transfers, net receiver, net giver, altruism, exchanged.

Procedia PDF Downloads 216

Authors: Kumar Shashvat, Amol P. Bhondekar

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In the midst of the five senses, odor is the most reminiscent and least understood. Odor testing has been mysterious and odor data fabled to most practitioners. The delinquent of recognition and classification of odor is important to achieve. The facility to smell and predict whether the artifact is of further use or it has become undesirable for consumption; the imitation of this problem hooked on a model is of consideration. The general industrial standard for this classification is color based anyhow; odor can be improved classifier than color based classification and if incorporated in machine will be awfully constructive. For cataloging of odor for peas, trees and cashews various discriminative approaches have been used Discriminative approaches offer good prognostic performance and have been widely used in many applications but are incapable to make effectual use of the unlabeled information. In such scenarios, generative approaches have better applicability, as they are able to knob glitches, such as in set-ups where variability in the series of possible input vectors is enormous. Generative models are integrated in machine learning for either modeling data directly or as a transitional step to form an indeterminate probability density function. The algorithms or models Linear Discriminant Analysis and Naive Bayes Classifier have been used for classification of the odor of cashews. Linear Discriminant Analysis is a method used in data classification, pattern recognition, and machine learning to discover a linear combination of features that typifies or divides two or more classes of objects or procedures. The Naive Bayes algorithm is a classification approach base on Bayes rule and a set of qualified independence theory. Naive Bayes classifiers are highly scalable, requiring a number of restraints linear in the number of variables (features/predictors) in a learning predicament. The main recompenses of using the generative models are generally a Generative Models make stronger assumptions about the data, specifically, about the distribution of predictors given the response variables. The Electronic instrument which is used for artificial odor sensing and classification is an electronic nose. This device is designed to imitate the anthropological sense of odor by providing an analysis of individual chemicals or chemical mixtures. The experimental results have been evaluated in the form of the performance measures i.e. are accuracy, precision and recall. The investigational results have proven that the overall performance of the Linear Discriminant Analysis was better in assessment to the Naive Bayes Classifier on cashew dataset.

Keywords: odor classification, generative models, naive bayes, linear discriminant analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 390

Authors: Alvaro Figueira, Bruno Cabral

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Nowadays, students are used to be assessed through an online platform. Educators have stepped up from a period in which they endured the transition from paper to digital. The use of a diversified set of question types that range from quizzes to open questions is currently common in most university courses. In many courses, today, the evaluation methodology also fosters the students’ online participation in forums, the download, and upload of modified files, or even the participation in group activities. At the same time, new pedagogy theories that promote the active participation of students in the learning process, and the systematic use of problem-based learning, are being adopted using an eLearning system for that purpose. However, although there can be a lot of feedback from these activities to student’s, usually it is restricted to the assessments of online well-defined tasks. In this article, we propose an automatic system that informs students of abnormal deviations of a 'correct' learning path in the course. Our approach is based on the fact that by obtaining this information earlier in the semester, may provide students and educators an opportunity to resolve an eventual problem regarding the student’s current online actions towards the course. Our goal is to prevent situations that have a significant probability to lead to a poor grade and, eventually, to failing. In the major learning management systems (LMS) currently available, the interaction between the students and the system itself is registered in log files in the form of registers that mark beginning of actions performed by the user. Our proposed system uses that logged information to derive new one: the time each student spends on each activity, the time and order of the resources used by the student and, finally, the online resource usage pattern. Then, using the grades assigned to the students in previous years, we built a learning dataset that is used to feed a machine learning meta classifier. The produced classification model is then used to predict the grades a learning path is heading to, in the current year. Not only this approach serves the teacher, but also the student to receive automatic feedback on her current situation, having past years as a perspective. Our system can be applied to online courses that integrate the use of an online platform that stores user actions in a log file, and that has access to other student’s evaluations. The system is based on a data mining process on the log files and on a self-feedback machine learning algorithm that works paired with the Moodle LMS.

Keywords: data mining, e-learning, grade prediction, machine learning, student learning path

Procedia PDF Downloads 123

Authors: Debasmita Misra, Arthur Nash

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Energy security and sufficiency enables the economic development and welfare of a nation or a society. Currently, the global energy system is dominated by fossil fuels, which is a non-renewable energy resource, which renders vulnerability to energy security. Hence, many nations have begun augmenting their energy system with renewable energy resources, such as solar, wind, biomass and hydro. However, with climate change, how sustainable are some of the renewable energy resources in the future is a matter of concern. Geothermal energy resources have been underexplored or underexploited in global renewable energy production and security, although it is gaining attractiveness as a renewable energy resource. The question is, whether geothermal energy resources are more sustainable than other renewable energy resources. High-temperature reservoirs (> 220 °F) can produce electricity from flash/dry steam plants as well as binary cycle production facilities. Most of the world’s high enthalpy geothermal resources are within the seismo-tectonic belt. However, exploration for geothermal energy is of great importance in conventional geothermal systems in order to improve its economic viability. In recent years, there has been an increase in the use and development of several exploration methods for geo-thermal resources, such as seismic or electromagnetic methods. The thermal infrared band of the Landsat can reflect land surface temperature difference, so the ETM+ data with specific grey stretch enhancement has been used to explore underground heat water. Another way of exploring for potential power is utilizing fairway play analysis for sites without surface expression and in rift zones. Utilizing this type of analysis can improve the success rate of project development by reducing exploration costs. Identifying the basin distribution of geologic factors that control the geothermal environment would help in identifying the control of resource concentration aside from the heat flow, thus improving the probability of success. The first step is compiling existing geophysical data. This leads to constructing conceptual models of potential geothermal concentrations which can then be utilized in creating a geodatabase to analyze risk maps. Geospatial analysis and other GIS tools can be used in such efforts to produce spatial distribution maps. The goal of this paper is to discuss how climate change may impact renewable energy resources and how could a synthesized analysis be developed for geothermal resources to ensure sustainable and cost effective exploitation of the resource.

Keywords: exploration, geothermal, renewable energy, sustainable

Procedia PDF Downloads 154

Authors: Mompi Sharma, Labananda Choudhury, Anjana M. Saikia

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Background: The period life table is entirely based on the assumption that the mortality patterns of the population existing in the given period will persist throughout their lives. However, it has been observed that the mortality rate continues to decline. As such, if the rates of change of probabilities of death are considered in a life table then we get a dynamic life table. Although, mortality has been declining in all parts of India, one may be interested to know whether these declines had appeared more in an urban area of underdeveloped regions like North-Eastern India. So, attempt has been made to know the mortality pattern and the life expectancy under dynamic scenario in Guwahati, the biggest city of North Eastern India. Further, if the probabilities of death changes then there is a possibility that its different constituent probabilities will also change. Since cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in Guwahati. Therefore, an attempt has also been made to formulate dynamic cause specific death ratio and probabilities of death due to CVD. Objectives: To construct dynamic life table for Guwahati for the year 2011 based on the rates of change of probabilities of death over the previous 10 and 25 years (i.e.,2001 and 1986) and to compute corresponding dynamic cause specific death ratio and probabilities of death due to CVD. Methodology and Data: The study uses the method proposed by Denton and Spencer (2011) to construct dynamic life table for Guwahati. So, the data from the Office of the Birth and Death, Guwahati Municipal Corporation for the years 1986, 2001 and 2011 are taken. The population based data are taken from 2001 and 2011 census (India). However, the population data for 1986 has been estimated. Also, the cause of death ratio and probabilities of death due to CVD are computed for the aforementioned years and then extended to dynamic set up for the year 2011 by considering the rates of change of those probabilities over the previous 10 and 25 years. Findings: The dynamic life expectancy at birth (LEB) for Guwahati is found to be higher than the corresponding values in the period table by 3.28 (5.65) years for males and 8.30 (6.37) years for females during the period of 10 (25) years. The life expectancies under dynamic consideration in all the other age groups are also seen higher than the usual life expectancies, which may be possible due to gradual decline in probabilities of death since 1986-2011. Further, a continuous decline has also been observed in death ratio due to CVD along with cause specific probabilities of death for both sexes. As a consequence, dynamic cause of death probability due to CVD is found to be less in comparison to usual procedure. Conclusion: Since incorporation of changing mortality rates in period life table for Guwahati resulted in higher life expectancies and lower probabilities of death due to CVD, this would possibly bring out the real situation of deaths prevailing in the city.

Keywords: cause specific death ratio, cause specific probabilities of death, dynamic, life expectancy

Procedia PDF Downloads 232

Authors: Elsadig Naseraddeen Ahmed Mohamed

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In contrast to the uncertainty and complementary principle, it will be shown in the present paper that the probability of the simultaneous occupation event of any definite values of coordinates by any definite values of momentum and energy at any definite instance of time can be described by a binary definite function equivalent to the difference between their numbers of occupation and evacuation epochs up to that time and also equivalent to the number of exchanges between those occupation and evacuation epochs up to that times modulus two, these binary definite quantities can be defined at all point in the time’s real-line so it form a binary signal represent a complete mechanical description of physical reality, the time of these exchanges represent the boundary of occupation and evacuation epochs from which we can calculate these binary signals using the fact that the time of universe events actually extends in the positive and negative of time’s real-line in one direction of extension when these number of exchanges increase, so there exists noninvertible transformation matrix can be defined as the matrix multiplication of invertible rotation matrix and noninvertible scaling matrix change the direction and magnitude of exchange event vector respectively, these noninvertible transformation will be called actual transformation in contrast to information transformations by which we can navigate the universe’s events transformed by actual transformations backward and forward in time’s real-line, so these information transformations will be derived as an elements of a group can be associated to their corresponded actual transformations. The actual and information model of the universe will be derived by assuming the existence of time instance zero before and at which there is no coordinate occupied by any definite values of momentum and energy, and then after that time, the universe begin its expanding in spacetime, this assumption makes the need for the existence of Laplace’s demon who at one moment can measure the positions and momentums of all constituent particle of the universe and then use the law of classical mechanics to predict all future and past of universe’s events, superfluous, we only need for the establishment of our analog to digital converters to sense the binary signals that determine the boundaries of occupation and evacuation epochs of the definite values of coordinates relative to its origin by the definite values of momentum and energy as present events of the universe from them we can predict approximately in high precision it's past and future events.

Keywords: binary-signal mechanics, actual-information model of the universe, actual-transformation, information-transformation, uncertainty principle, Laplace's demon

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Authors: Yagya Murti Aryal, Bipin Adhikari, Pradeep Gyawali

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The Lesser Himalaya zone of Nepal consists of thrusting and folding belts, which play an important role in the sustainable management of groundwater in the Himalayan regions. The study area is located in the Dolakha and Ramechhap Districts of Bagmati Province, Nepal. Geologically, these districts are situated in the Lesser Himalayas and partly encompass the Higher Himalayan rock sequence, which includes low-grade to high-grade metamorphic rocks. Following the Gorkha Earthquake in 2015, numerous springs dried up, and many others are currently experiencing depletion due to the distortion of the natural groundwater flow. The primary objective of this study is to identify potential groundwater areas and determine suitable sites for artificial groundwater recharge. Two distinct statistical approaches were used to develop models: The Frequency Ratio (FR) and Shannon Entropy (SE) methods. The study utilized both primary and secondary datasets and incorporated significant role and controlling factors derived from field works and literature reviews. Field data collection involved spring inventory, soil analysis, lithology assessment, and hydro-geomorphology study. Additionally, slope, aspect, drainage density, and lineament density were extracted from a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) using GIS and transformed into thematic layers. For training and validation, 114 springs were divided into a 70/30 ratio, with an equal number of non-spring pixels. After assigning weights to each class based on the two proposed models, a groundwater potential map was generated using GIS, classifying the area into five levels: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. The model's outcome reveals that over 41% of the area falls into the low and very low potential categories, while only 30% of the area demonstrates a high probability of groundwater potential. To evaluate model performance, accuracy was assessed using the Area under the Curve (AUC). The success rate AUC values for the FR and SE methods were determined to be 78.73% and 77.09%, respectively. Additionally, the prediction rate AUC values for the FR and SE methods were calculated as 76.31% and 74.08%. The results indicate that the FR model exhibits greater prediction capability compared to the SE model in this case study.

Keywords: groundwater potential mapping, frequency ratio, Shannon’s Entropy, Lesser Himalaya Zone, sustainable groundwater management

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Authors: Mohamed Mouloud Haddak, Bouthayna Hayou

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Road accidents in French overseas territories have been understudied, with relevant data often collected late and incompletely. Although these territories account for only 3% to 4% of road traffic injuries in France, their unique characteristics merit closer attention. Despite lower mobility and, consequently, lower exposure to road risks, the actual road risk in Overseas France is as high or even higher than in Metropolitan France. Significant disparities exist not only between Metropolitan France and Overseas territories but also among the overseas territories themselves. The varying population densities in these regions do not fully explain these differences, as each territory has its own distinct vulnerabilities and road safety challenges. This analysis, based on BAAC data files from 2005 to 2018 for both Metropolitan France and the overseas departments and regions, examines key variables such as gender, age, type of road user, type of obstacle hit, type of trip, road category, traffic conditions, weather, and location of accidents. Logistic regression models were built for each region to investigate the risk factors associated with fatal road accidents, focusing on the probability of being killed versus injured. Due to insufficient data, Mayotte and the Overseas Communities (French Polynesia and New Caledonia) were not included in the models. The findings reveal that road safety is worse in the overseas territories compared to Metropolitan France, particularly for vulnerable road users such as pedestrians and motorized two-wheelers. These territories present an accident profile that sits between that of Metropolitan France and middle-income countries. A pressing need exists to standardize accident data collection between Metropolitan and Overseas France to allow for more detailed comparative analyses. Further epidemiological studies could help identify the specific road safety issues unique to each territory, particularly with regards to socio-economic factors such as social cohesion, which may influence road safety outcomes. Moreover, the lack of data on new modes of travel, such as electric scooters, and the absence of socio-economic details of accident victims complicate the evaluation of emerging risk factors. Additional research, including sociological and psychosocial studies, is essential for understanding road users' behavior and perceptions of road risk, which could also provide valuable insights into accident trends in peri-urban areas in France.

Keywords: multivariate logistic regression, french overseas regions, road safety, road traffic accidents, territorial inequalities

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Authors: Mohammad Didar Hossain

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Background/Purpose: The purpose of this study was to examine the associations between productive engagements and the psychological well-being of older adults in the U.S by analyzing cross-sectional data from a secondary dataset. Specifically, this paper analyzed the associations of 4 different types of productive engagements, including current work status, caregiving to the family members, volunteering and religious strengths with the psychological well-being as an outcome variable. Methods: Data and sample: The study used the data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). The HRS is a nationally representative prospective longitudinal cohort study that has been conducting biennial surveys since 1992 to community-dwelling individuals 50 years of age or older on diverse issues. This analysis was based on the 2016 wave (cross-sectional) of the HRS dataset and the data collection period was April 2016 through August 2017. The samples were recruited from a multistage, national area-clustered probability sampling frame. Measures: Four different variables were considered as the predicting variables in this analysis. Firstly, current working status was a binary variable that measured by 0=Yes and 1= No. The second and third variables were respectively caregiving and volunteering, and both of them were measured by; 0=Regularly, 1= Irregularly. Finally, find in strength was measured by 0= Agree and 1= Disagree. Outcome (Wellbeing) variable was measured by 0= High level of well-being, 1= Low level of well-being. Control variables including age were measured in years, education in the categories of 0=Low level of education, 1= Higher level of education and sex r in the categories 0=male, 1= female. Analysis and Results: Besides the descriptive statistics, binary logistic regression analyses were applied to examine the association between independent and dependent variables. The results showed that among the four independent variables, three of them including working status (OR: .392, p<.001), volunteering (OR: .471, p<.003) and strengths in religion (OR .588, p<.003), were significantly associated with psychological well-being while controlling for age, gender and education factors. Also, no significant association was found between the caregiving engagement of older adults and their psychological well-being outcome. Conclusions and Implications: The findings of this study are mostly consistent with the previous studies except for the caregiving engagements and their impact on older adults’ well-being outcomes. Therefore, the findings support the proactive initiatives from different micro to macro levels to facilitate opportunities for productive engagements for the older adults, and all of these may ultimately benefit their psychological well-being and life satisfaction in later life.

Keywords: productive engagements, older adults, psychological wellbeing, productive aging

Procedia PDF Downloads 157

Authors: Iulia E. Falcan

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The transition of the European power sector towards a clean, renewable energy (RE) system faces the challenge of meeting power demand in times of low wind speed and low solar radiation, at a reasonable cost. This is likely to be achieved through a combination of 1) energy storage technologies, 2) development of the cross-border power grid, 3) installed overcapacity of RE and 4) dispatchable power sources – such as biomass. This paper uses NASA; derived hourly data on weather patterns of sixteen European countries for the past twenty-five years, and load data from the European Network of Transmission System Operators-Electricity (ENTSO-E), to develop a stochastic optimization model. This model aims to understand the synergies between the four classes of technologies mentioned above and to determine the optimal configuration of the energy technologies portfolio. While this issue has been addressed before, it was done so using deterministic models that extrapolated historic data on weather patterns and power demand, as well as ignoring the risk of an unbalanced grid-risk stemming from both the supply and the demand side. This paper aims to explicitly account for the inherent uncertainty in the energy system transition. It articulates two levels of uncertainty: a) the inherent uncertainty in future weather patterns and b) the uncertainty of fully meeting power demand. The first level of uncertainty is addressed by developing probability distributions for future weather data and thus expected power output from RE technologies, rather than known future power output. The latter level of uncertainty is operationalized by introducing a Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) constraint in the portfolio optimization problem. By setting the risk threshold at different levels – 1%, 5% and 10%, important insights are revealed regarding the synergies of the different energy technologies, i.e., the circumstances under which they behave as either complements or substitutes to each other. The paper concludes that allowing for uncertainty in expected power output - rather than extrapolating historic data - paints a more realistic picture and reveals important departures from results of deterministic models. In addition, explicitly acknowledging the risk of an unbalanced grid - and assigning it different thresholds - reveals non-linearity in the cost functions of different technology portfolio configurations. This finding has significant implications for the design of the European energy mix.

Keywords: cross-border grid extension, energy storage technologies, energy system transition, stochastic portfolio optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 171

Authors: Jae Hyun Park, Sangmi Chai, Minkyun Kim

Abstract:

As users spend more time on the Internet, the probability of their personal information being exposed has been growing. This research has a main purpose of investigating factors and examining relationships when Internet users recognize their value of private information with a perspective of an economic asset. The study is targeted on Internet users, and the value of their private information will be converted into economic figures. Moreover, how economic value changes in relation with individual attributes, dealer’s traits, circumstantial properties will be studied. In this research, the changes in factors on private information value responding to different situations will be analyzed in an economic perspective. Additionally, this study examines the associations between users’ perceived risk and value of their personal information. By using the cost-benefit analysis framework, the hypothesis that the user’s sense in private information value can be influenced by individual attributes and situational properties will be tested. Therefore, this research will attempt to provide answers for three research objectives. First, this research will identify factors that affect value recognition of users’ personal information. Second, it provides evidences that there are differences on information system users’ economic value of information responding to personal, trade opponent, and situational attributes. Third, it investigates the impact of those attributes on individuals’ perceived risk. Based on the assumption that personal, trade opponent and situation attributes make an impact on the users’ value recognition on private information, this research will present the understandings on the different impacts of those attributes in recognizing the value of information with the economic perspective and prove the associative relationships between perceived risk and decision on the value of users’ personal information. In order to validate our research model, this research used the regression methodology. Our research results support that information breach experience and information security systems is associated with users’ perceived risk. Information control and uncertainty are also related to users’ perceived risk. Therefore, users’ perceived risk is considered as a significant factor on evaluating the value of personal information. It can be differentiated by trade opponent and situational attributes. This research presents new perspective on evaluating the value of users’ personal information in the context of perceived risk, personal, trade opponent and situational attributes. It fills the gap in the literature by providing how users’ perceived risk are associated with personal, trade opponent and situation attitudes in conducting business transactions with providing personal information. It adds to previous literature that the relationship exists between perceived risk and the value of users’ private information in the economic perspective. It also provides meaningful insights to the managers that in order to minimize the cost of information breach, managers need to recognize the value of individuals’ personal information and decide the proper amount of investments on protecting users’ online information privacy.

Keywords: private information, value, users, perceived risk, online information privacy, attributes

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