Search results for: fundamental models

Authors: Asrat M.Belachew, Tiago Pereira, Institute of Mathematics, Computer Sciences, Avenida Trabalhador São Carlense, 400, São Carlos, 13566-590, Brazil

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Infectious diseases are among the most prominent threats to human beings. They cause morbidity and mortality to an individual and collapse the social, economic, and political systems of the whole world collectively. Mathematical models are fundamental tools and provide a comprehensive understanding of how infectious diseases spread and designing the control strategy to mitigate infectious diseases from the host population. Modeling the spread of infectious diseases using a compartmental model of inhomogeneous populations is good in terms of complexity. However, in the real world, there is a situation that accounts for heterogeneity, such as ages, locations, and contact patterns of the population which are ignored in a homogeneous setting. In this work, we study how classical an SEIR infectious disease spreading of the compartmental model can be extended by incorporating the mobility of population between heterogeneous cities during an outbreak of infectious disease. We have formulated an SEIR multi-cities epidemic spreading model using a system of 4k ordinary differential equations to describe the disease transmission dynamics in k-cities during the day and night. We have shownthat the model is epidemiologically (i.e., variables have biological interpretation) and mathematically (i.e., a unique bounded solution exists all the time) well-posed. We constructed the next-generation matrix (NGM) for the model and calculated the basic reproduction number R0for SEIR-epidemic spreading model with cities mobility. R0of the disease depends on the spectral radius mobility operator, and it is a threshold between asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium and disease persistence. Using the eigenvalue perturbation theorem, we showed that sending a fraction of the population between cities decreases the reproduction number of diseases in interconnected cities. As a result, disease transmissiondecreases in the population.

Keywords: SEIR-model, mathematical model, city mobility, epidemic spreading

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Authors: Liam Fassam, Pouria Liravi, Jacquie Bridgman

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Introduction: The way we travel is rapidly changing, car ownership and use are declining among young people and those residents in urban areas. Also, the increasing role and popularity of sharing economy companies like Uber highlight a movement towards consuming transportation solutions as a service [Mobility of a Service]. This research looks to bridge the knowledge gap that exists between city mobility, smart cities, sharing economy and social entrepreneurship business models. Understanding of this subject is crucial for smart city design, as access to affordable transport has been identified as a contributing factor to social isolation leading to issues around health and wellbeing. Methodology: To explore the current fit vis-a-vis transportation business models and social impact this research undertook a comparative analysis between a systematic literature review and a Delphi study. The systematic literature review was undertaken to gain an appreciation of the current academic thinking on ‘social entrepreneurship and smart city mobility’. The second phase of the research initiated a Delphi study across a group of 22 participants to review future opinion on ‘how social entrepreneurship can assist city mobility sharing models?’. The Delphi delivered an initial 220 results, which once cross-checked for duplication resulted in 130. These 130 answers were sent back to participants to score importance against a 5-point LIKERT scale, enabling a top 10 listing of areas for shared user transports in society to be gleaned. One further round (4) identified no change in the coefficient of variant thus no further rounds were required. Findings: Initial results of the literature review returned 1,021 journals using the search criteria ‘social entrepreneurship and smart city mobility’. Filtering allied to ‘peer review’, ‘date’, ‘region’ and ‘Chartered associated of business school’ ranking proffered a resultant journal list of 75. Of these, 58 focused on smart city design, 9 on social enterprise in cityscapes, 6 relating to smart city network design and 3 on social impact, with no journals purporting the need for social entrepreneurship to be allied to city mobility. The future inclusion factors from the Delphi expert panel indicated that smart cities needed to include shared economy models in their strategies. Furthermore, social isolation born by costs of infrastructure needed addressing through holistic A-political social enterprise models, and a better understanding of social benefit measurement is needed. Conclusion: In investigating the collaboration between key public transportation stakeholders, a theoretical model of social enterprise transportation models that positively impact upon the smart city needs of reduced transport poverty and social isolation was formed. As such, the research has identified how a revised business model of Mobility of a Service allied to a social entrepreneurship can deliver impactful measured social benefits associated to smart city design existent research.

Keywords: social enterprise, collaborative transportation, new models of ownership, transport social impact

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Authors: Mathias B. Michael, Esther T. Akinlabi, Tien-Chien Jen

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Thermal energy consumption in palm oil production plant comprises mainly of steam, hot water and hot air. In most efficient plants, hot water and air are generated from the steam supply system. Research has shown that thermal energy utilize in palm oil production plants is about 70 percent of the total energy consumption of the plant. In order to manage the plants’ energy efficiently, the energy systems are modelled and optimized. This paper aimed to present the model of steam supply systems of a typical palm oil production plant in Ghana. The models include exergy and energy models of steam boiler, steam turbine and the palm oil mill. The paper further simulates the virtual plant model to obtain the thermal energy performance of the plant under study. The simulation results show that, under normal operating condition, the boiler energy performance is considerably below the expected level as a result of several factors including intermittent biomass fuel supply, significant moisture content of the biomass fuel and significant heat losses. The total thermal energy performance of the virtual plant is set as a baseline. The study finally recommends number of energy efficiency measures to improve the plant’s energy performance.

Keywords: palm biomass, steam supply, exergy and energy models, energy performance benchmark

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Authors: Reza E. Sedgh, Rajesh P. Dhakal

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Shear walls have been used extensively as the main lateral force resisting systems in multi-storey buildings. The recent development in performance based design urges practicing engineers to conduct nonlinear static or dynamic analysis to evaluate seismic performance of multi-storey shear wall buildings by employing distinct analytical models suggested in the literature. For practical purpose, application of macroscopic models to simulate the global and local nonlinear behavior of structural walls outweighs the microscopic models. The skill level, computational time and limited access to RC specialized finite element packages prevents the general application of this method in performance based design or assessment of multi-storey shear wall buildings in design offices. Hence, this paper organized to verify capability of nonlinear shell element in commercially available package (Sap2000) in simulating results of some specimens under monotonic and cyclic loads with very oversimplified available cyclic material laws in the analytical tool. The selection of constitutive models, the determination of related parameters of the constituent material and appropriate nonlinear shear model are presented in detail. Adoption of proposed simple model demonstrated that the predicted results follow the overall trend of experimental force-displacement curve. Although, prediction of ultimate strength and the overall shape of hysteresis model agreed to some extent with experiment, the ultimate displacement(significant strength degradation point) prediction remains challenging in some cases.

Keywords: analytical model, nonlinear shell element, structural wall, shear behavior

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Authors: Chloe Fauchon

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In Europe, the right to a fair trial is enshrined in the European Convention on Human Rights, signed in 1950, in its famous Article 6, and, in the field of the European Union, in Article 47 of the Charter of Fundamental Rights, binding since 2009. The right to a fair trial is, therefore, a fundamental right protected by all the relevant treaties. The right to a fair trial is an "umbrella right" which encompasses various sub-rights and principles. Although this right applies in all the proceedings, it gets a special relevance in criminal matters and, particularly, regarding the defendant. In criminal proceedings, the parties are not equal: the accusation is represented by a State-organ, with specific prerogatives, and the defense does not benefit from these specific powers and is often inexperienced in criminal law. Equality of arms, and consequently the right to a fair trial, needs some specific mechanisms to be effective in criminal proceedings. For instance, the defendant benefits from some procedural rights, such as the right to a lawyer, the right to be informed of the charges against them, the right to confront witnesses, and so on. These rights aim to give the defendant the tools to dispute the accusation. The role of the defense is, therefore, very important in criminal matters to avoid unjustified convictions. This specificity of criminal matters justifies that the focus will be put on them during this study. Then this paper will also focus on French and Spanish legal orders. Indeed, if the European Court and Convention on Human Rights are the most famous instruments to protect the right to a fair trial, this right is also guaranteed at a constitutional level in European national legal orders in Europe. However, this enshrinement differs from one country to the other: for instance, in Spain, the right to a fair trial is protected explicitly by the 1978 constitutional text, whereas, in France, it is more of a case-law construction. Nevertheless, this difference between both legal orders does not imply huge variations in the substantive aspect of the right to a fair trial. This can be specifically explained by the submission of both States to the European Convention on Human Rights. This work aims to show that, although the French and Spanish legal orders differ in the way they protect the right to a fair trial, this right eventually has the same substantive meaning in both legal orders.

Keywords: right to a fair trial, constitutional law, French law, Spanish law, European Court of Human Rights

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Authors: Chandra Prayaga, Aaron Wade, Lakshmi Prayaga, Gopi Shankar Mallu

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This paper presents the use of machine learning algorithms to predict the success of students in an introductory physics course. Data having 140 rows pertaining to the performance of two batches of students was used. The lack of sufficient data to train robust machine learning models was compensated for by generating synthetic data similar to the real data. CTGAN and CTGAN with Gaussian Copula (Gaussian) were used to generate synthetic data, with the real data as input. To check the similarity between the real data and each synthetic dataset, pair plots were made. The synthetic data was used to train machine learning models using the PyCaret package. For the CTGAN data, the Ada Boost Classifier (ADA) was found to be the ML model with the best fit, whereas the CTGAN with Gaussian Copula yielded Logistic Regression (LR) as the best model. Both models were then tested for accuracy with the real data. ROC-AUC analysis was performed for all the ten classes of the target variable (Grades A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D, F). The ADA model with CTGAN data showed a mean AUC score of 0.4377, but the LR model with the Gaussian data showed a mean AUC score of 0.6149. ROC-AUC plots were obtained for each Grade value separately. The LR model with Gaussian data showed consistently better AUC scores compared to the ADA model with CTGAN data, except in two cases of the Grade value, C- and A-.

Keywords: machine learning, student success, physics course, grades, synthetic data, CTGAN, gaussian copula CTGAN

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Authors: Stefano Frassinelli, Alessandro Niccolai, Riccardo E. Zich

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Diving is an important Olympic sport. In this sport, the effective performance of the athlete is related to his capability to interact correctly with the springboard. In fact, the elevation of the jump and the correctness of the dive are influenced by the vibrations of the board. In this paper, the vibrations of the springboard will be analyzed by means of typical tools for vibration analysis: Firstly, a modal analysis will be done on two different models of the springboard, then, these two model and another one will be analyzed with a time analysis, done integrating the equations of motion od deformable bodies. All these analyses will be compared with experimental data measured on a real springboard by means of a 6-axis accelerometer; these measurements are aimed to assess the models proposed. The acquired data will be analyzed both in frequency domain and in time domain.

Keywords: springboard analysis, modal analysis, time domain analysis, vibrations

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Authors: Harika Dasari, Eric Eisenbraun

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The present study models the role of electrode structural characteristics on the thermal behavior of lithium-ion batteries. Preliminary modeling runs have employed a 1D lithium-ion battery coupled to a two-dimensional axisymmetric model using silicon as the battery anode material. The two models are coupled by the heat generated and the average temperature. Our study is focused on the silicon anode particle sizes and it is observed that silicon anodes with nano-sized particles reduced the temperature of the battery in comparison to anodes with larger particles. These results are discussed in the context of the relationship between particle size and thermal transport properties in the electrode.

Keywords: particle size, NMC, silicon, heat generation, separator

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Authors: M. A. Sohaly, M. A. Elfouly

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Parkinson's disease (PD) is a heterogeneous movement disorder that often appears in the elderly. PD is induced by a loss of dopamine secretion. Some drugs increase the secretion of dopamine. In this paper, we will simply study the stability of PD models as a nonlinear delay differential equation. After a period of taking drugs, these act as positive feedback and increase the tremors of patients, and then, the differential equation has positive coefficients and the system is unstable under these conditions. We will present a set of suggested modifications to make the system more compatible with the biodynamic system. When giving a set of numerical examples, this research paper is concerned with the mathematical analysis, and no clinical data have been used.

Keywords: Parkinson's disease, stability, simulation, two delay differential equation

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Authors: Sheikh Samsuzzhan Alam

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The present study investigates the selection of variogram model in analyzing spatial variations of environmental variables with the trend. Sometimes, the autofitted theoretical variogram does not really capture the true nature of the empirical semivariogram. So proper exploration and analysis are needed to select the best variogram model. For this study, an open source data collected from California Soil Resource Lab1 is used to explain the problems when fitting a theoretical variogram. Five most commonly used variogram models: Linear, Gaussian, Exponential, Matern, and Spherical were fitted to the experimental semivariogram. Ordinary kriging methods were considered to evaluate the accuracy of the selected variograms through cross-validation. This study is beneficial for selecting an appropriate theoretical variogram model for environmental variables.

Keywords: anisotropy, cross-validation, environmental variables, kriging, variogram models

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Authors: Sanja Podunavac-Kuzmanović, Denis Kučević, Strahinja Kovačević, Milica Karadžić, Lidija Jevrić

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The present study describes the application of chemometric methods in analysis of milk samples which were collected in a conventional dairy farm and an organic dairy farm in AP Vojvodina, Republic of Serbia. The chemometric analysis included the application of univariate regression modeling and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) method. The ANOVA was used in order to determine the differences in fatty acids content in the milk samples from conventional and organic farm. The results of the ANOVA testing indicate that there is a highly statistically significant difference between the content of fatty acid (saturated fatty acid vs. unsaturated fatty acids) in different dairy farming. Besides, the linear univariate models have been obtained as a result of modeling the linear relationships between the milk fat content and saturated fatty acids content, and the linear relationships between the milk fat content and unsaturated fatty acids content. The models obtained on the basis of the milk samples which originate from the organic farming are statistically better than the models based on the milk samples from conventional farming.

Keywords: hemometrics, milk, organic farming, quality control

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Authors: Yina F. Muñoz, Alexander Paz, Hanns De La Fuente-Mella, Joaquin V. Fariña, Guilherme M. Sales

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The primary approach for estimating bridge deterioration uses Markov-chain models and regression analysis. Traditional Markov models have problems in estimating the required transition probabilities when a small sample size is used. Often, reliable bridge data have not been taken over large periods, thus large data sets may not be available. This study presents an important change to the traditional approach by using the Small Data Method to estimate transition probabilities. The results illustrate that the Small Data Method and traditional approach both provide similar estimates; however, the former method provides results that are more conservative. That is, Small Data Method provided slightly lower than expected bridge condition ratings compared with the traditional approach. Considering that bridges are critical infrastructures, the Small Data Method, which uses more information and provides more conservative estimates, may be more appropriate when the available sample size is small. In addition, regression analysis was used to calculate bridge deterioration. Condition ratings were determined for bridge groups, and the best regression model was selected for each group. The results obtained were very similar to those obtained when using Markov chains; however, it is desirable to use more data for better results.

Keywords: concrete bridges, deterioration, Markov chains, probability matrix

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Authors: Arian Hosseini, Mahmudul Hasan

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To address the increasing need for efficient and accurate content moderation, we propose an efficient and lightweight deep classification ensemble structure. Our approach is based on a combination of simple visual features, designed for high-accuracy classification of violent content with low false positives. Our ensemble architecture utilizes a set of lightweight models with narrowed-down color features, and we apply it to both images and videos. We evaluated our approach using a large dataset of explosion and blast contents and compared its performance to popular deep learning models such as ResNet-50. Our evaluation results demonstrate significant improvements in prediction accuracy, while benefiting from 7.64x faster inference and lower computation cost. While our approach is tailored to explosion detection, it can be applied to other similar content moderation and violence detection use cases as well. Based on our experiments, we propose a "think small, think many" philosophy in classification scenarios. We argue that transforming a single, large, monolithic deep model into a verification-based step model ensemble of multiple small, simple, and lightweight models with narrowed-down visual features can possibly lead to predictions with higher accuracy.

Keywords: deep classification, content moderation, ensemble learning, explosion detection, video processing

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Authors: Nessreen Y. Ibrahim

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Designing the future according to realistic analytical study for the futuristic market needs can be a milestone strategy to make a huge improvement in developing countries economics. In developing countries, access to high technology and latest science approaches is very limited. The financial problems in low and medium income countries have negative effects on the kind and quality of imported new technologies and application for their markets. Thus, there is a strong need for shifting paradigm thinking in the design process to improve and evolve their development strategy. This paper discusses future possibilities in developing countries, and how they can design their own future according to specific future models FDM (Future Design Models), which established to solve certain economical problems, as well as political and cultural conflicts. FDM is strategic thinking framework provides an improvement in both content and process. The content includes; beliefs, values, mission, purpose, conceptual frameworks, research, and practice, while the process includes; design methodology, design systems, and design managements tools. In this paper the main objective was building an innovative economic model to design a chosen possible futuristic scenario; by understanding the market future needs, analyze real world setting, solve the model questions by future driven design, and finally interpret the results, to discuss to what extent the results can be transferred to the real world. The paper discusses Egypt as a potential case study. Since, Egypt has highly complex economical problems, extra-dynamic political factors, and very rich cultural aspects; we considered Egypt is a very challenging example for applying FDM. The paper results recommended using FDM numerical modeling as a starting point to design the future.

Keywords: developing countries, economic models, future design, possible futures

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Authors: Yeliz Ekinci, Melis Koyuncu

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Successful planning of solid waste management systems requires successful prediction of the amount of solid waste generated in an area. Waste management planning can protect the environment and human health, hence it is tremendously important for countries. The lack of information in waste generation can cause many environmental and health problems. Turkey is a country that plans to join European Union, hence, solid waste management is one of the most significant criteria that should be handled in order to be a part of this community. Solid waste management system requires a good forecast of solid waste generation. Thus, this study aims to forecast solid waste generation in Turkey. Artificial Neural Network and Linear Regression models will be used for this aim. Many models will be run and the best one will be selected based on some predetermined performance measures.

Keywords: forecast, solid waste generation, solid waste management, Turkey

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Authors: Shahroz Khan, Erkan Gunpinar, Kemal Mart

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Recently parametric design techniques became a vital concept in the field of Computer Aided Design (CAD), which helps to provide sophisticated platform to the designer in order to automate the design process in efficient time. In these techniques, design process starts by parameterizing the important features of design models (typically the key dimensions), with the implementation of design constraints. The design constraints help to retain the overall shape of the model while modifying its parameters. However, the process of initializing an appropriate number of design parameters and constraints is the crucial part of parametric design techniques, especially for complex surface models such as yacht hull. This paper introduces a method to create complex surface models in favor of parametric design techniques, a method to define the right number of parameters and respective design constraints, and a system to implement design parameters in contract to design constraints schema. For this, in our proposed approach the design process starts by dividing the yacht hull into three sections. Each section consists of different shape lines, which form the overall shape of yacht hull. The shape lines are created using Cubic Bezier Curves, which allow larger design flexibility. Design parameters and constraints are defined on the shape lines in 3D design space to facilitate the designers for better and individual handling of parameters. Afterwards, shape modifiers are developed, which allow the modification of each parameter while satisfying the respective set of criteria and design constraints. Such as, geometric continuities should be maintained between the shape lines of the three sections, fairness of the hull surfaces should be preserved after modification and while design modification, effect of a single parameter should be negligible on other parameters. The constraints are defined individually on shape lines of each section and mutually between the shape lines of two connecting sections. In order to validate and visualize design results of our shape modifiers, a real time graphic interface is created.

Keywords: design parameter, design constraints, shape modifies, yacht hull

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Authors: Gelacio JuáRez-Luna, Daniel Enrique GonzáLez-RamíRez, Enrique Tenorio-Montero

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Frame elements coupled with springs elements are used for modelling the development of hinges in segmented tunnels, the spring elements modelled the rotational, transversal and axial failure. These spring elements are equipped with constitutive models to include independently the moment, shear force and axial force, respectively. These constitutive models are formulated based on damage mechanics and experimental test reported in the literature review. The mesh of the segmented tunnels was discretized in the software GID, and the nonlinear analyses were carried out in the finite element software ANSYS. These analyses provide the capacity curve of the primary and secondary lining of a segmented tunnel. Two numerical examples of segmented tunnels show the capability of the spring elements to release energy by the development of hinges. The first example is a segmental concrete lining discretized with frame elements loaded until hinges occurred in the lining. The second example is a tunnel with primary and secondary lining, discretized with a double ring frame model. The outer ring simulates the segmental concrete lining and the inner ring simulates the secondary cast-in-place concrete lining. Spring elements also modelled the joints between the segments in the circumferential direction and the ring joints, which connect parallel adjacent rings. The computed load vs displacement curves are congruent with numerical and experimental results reported in the literature review. It is shown that the modelling of a tunnel with primary and secondary lining with frame elements and springs provides reasonable results and save computational cost, comparing with 2D or 3D models equipped with smeared crack models.

Keywords: damage, hinges, lining, tunnel

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Authors: Pratiksha Dubey, Praveen Singh, Shantanu Sen Gupta, Anand K. Bachhawat

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5-oxoproline (pyroglutamic acid) is a cyclic lactam of glutamic acid. In the cell, it can be produced by several different pathways and is metabolized into glutamate with the help of the 5-oxoprolinase enzyme (OPLAH or OXP1). The inhibition of 5-oxoprolinase enzyme in mammals was found to result in heart failure and is thought to be a consequence of oxidative stress [1]. To analyze the consequences of 5-oxoproline accumulation more clearly, we are generating models for 5-oxoproline accumulation in yeast. The 5-oxoproline accumulation model in yeast is being developed by two different strategies. The first one is by overexpression of the mouse  -glutamylcyclotransferase enzyme. It degrades -glu-met dipeptide into 5-oxoproline and methionine taken by the cell from the medium. The second strategy is by providing high concentration of 5-oxoproline externally to the yeast cells. The intracellular 5-oxoproline levels in both models are being evaluated. In addition, the metabolic and cellular consequences are being investigated.

Keywords: 5-oxoproline, pyroglutamic acid, yeast, genetics

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Authors: Mohammad Namazi, Mohammad Sadeghzadeh Maharluie

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Predicting earnings management is vital for the capital market participants, financial analysts and managers. The aim of this research is attempting to respond to this query: Is there a significant difference between the regression model and neural networks’ models in predicting earnings management, and which one leads to a superior prediction of it? In approaching this question, a Linear Regression (LR) model was compared with two neural networks including Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), and Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN). The population of this study includes 94 listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) market from 2003 to 2011. After the results of all models were acquired, ANOVA was exerted to test the hypotheses. In general, the summary of statistical results showed that the precision of GRNN did not exhibit a significant difference in comparison with MLP. In addition, the mean square error of the MLP and GRNN showed a significant difference with the multi variable LR model. These findings support the notion of nonlinear behavior of the earnings management. Therefore, it is more appropriate for capital market participants to analyze earnings management based upon neural networks techniques, and not to adopt linear regression models.

Keywords: earnings management, generalized linear regression, neural networks multi-layer perceptron, Tehran stock exchange

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Authors: Daleesha M. Viswanathan, Sumam Mary Idicula

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Dynamic hand gestures are an intrinsic component in sign language communication. Extracting spatial temporal features of the hand gesture trajectory plays an important role in a dynamic gesture recognition system. Finding a discrete feature descriptor for the motion trajectory based on the orientation feature is the main concern of this paper. Kalman filter algorithm and Hidden Markov Models (HMM) models are incorporated with this recognition system for hand trajectory tracking and for spatial temporal classification, respectively.

Keywords: orientation features, discrete feature vector, HMM., Indian sign language

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Authors: Laura Çami (Vorpsi), Xhon Skënderi

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In today's rapidly evolving technological landscape, the traditional principles of contract law are facing significant challenges. The emergence of new technologies, such as electronic signatures, smart contracts, and online dispute resolution mechanisms, is transforming the way contracts are formed, interpreted, and enforced. This paper examines the implications of these technological advancements on the constitutional principles of contract law. One of the fundamental principles of contract law is freedom of contract, which ensures that parties have the autonomy to negotiate and enter into contracts as they see fit. However, the use of technology in the contracting process has the potential to disrupt this principle. For example, online platforms and marketplaces often offer standard-form contracts, which may not reflect the specific needs or interests of individual parties. This raises questions about the equality of bargaining power between parties and the extent to which parties are truly free to negotiate the terms of their contracts. Another important principle of contract law is the requirement of consideration, which requires that each party receives something of value in exchange for their promise. The use of digital assets, such as cryptocurrencies, has created new challenges in determining what constitutes valuable consideration in a contract. Due to the ambiguity in this area, disagreements about the legality and enforceability of such contracts may arise. Furthermore, the use of technology in dispute resolution mechanisms, such as online arbitration and mediation, may raise concerns about due process and access to justice. The use of algorithms and artificial intelligence to determine the outcome of disputes may also raise questions about the impartiality and fairness of the process. Finally, it should be noted that there are many different and complex effects of technical improvements on the fundamental constitutional foundations of contract law. As technology continues to evolve, it will be important for policymakers and legal practitioners to consider the potential impacts on contract law and to ensure that the principles of fairness, equality, and access to justice are preserved in the contracting process.

Keywords: technological advancements, constitutional principles, contract law, smart contracts, online dispute resolution, freedom of contract

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Authors: Peng Liu, Chyng Wen Tee, Xiaofei Xu

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This paper integrates machine learning forecasting techniques into the multi-period portfolio optimization framework, enabling dynamic asset allocation based on multiple future periods. We explore both theoretical foundations and practical applications, employing diverse machine learning models for return forecasting. This comprehensive guide demonstrates the superiority of multi-period optimization over single-period approaches, particularly in risk mitigation through strategic rebalancing and enhanced market trend forecasting. Our goal is to promote wider adoption of multi-period optimization, providing insights that can significantly enhance the decision-making capabilities of practitioners and researchers alike.

Keywords: multi-period portfolio optimization, look-ahead constrained optimization, machine learning, sequential decision making

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Authors: Alba Francesca Canta

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The present is one of those times when what normally seems to constitute a reason for living vanishes, particularly in times of crisis, during which certainties of all times crumble, and critical issues emerge, especially in already problematic areas such as the role of women and children. This paper aims to explore the issue of gender and highlight the importance of education for people’s development and well-being. The study is part of the broader framework of the capability approach, a multidimensional approach based on the need to consider a person’s wealth by virtue of their opportunity and freedom to live a ‘life of worth. The results of empirical research conducted in 2020 will be presented, the main objective of which was to measure, through qualitative (project techniques, focus groups, interviews with key informants) and quantitative (questionnaire) methods, the level of empowerment of women in two Italian territories and the consequent well-being of their children. By means of the relationship study, the present research results show that a higher level of women’s empowerment corresponds to a higher level of children’s well-being in a positive virtuous process. The opportunity structure and education are the main driving guide both to women’s empowerment and children’s well-being, emphasizing the importance of education to gender culture as a key factor for the development of the whole society. Among all the traumatic events that broke the harmony of the world and caused an abrupt turn in all areas of society, the crisis of democracy and education are some of the harshest. Nevertheless, education continues to be a fundamental pillar of Global Development Agendas, and above all, democratic education is the main factor in the development of a generative society, capable of forming people who know how to live in society. In this context, recovering democratic and inclusive education can be the key to a breakthrough. In the capability approach Sen, and other Scholars, point out education from two different perspectives: a. education as a fundamental right capable of influencing other real fields of people’s life (i.e., being educated to prevent illness, to vote, etc.) and b. spread communitarian education, tolerance, inclusive, democratic, and respectful, capable of forming human beings. This kind of educational system can directly lead to a general process of gender education that presupposes respect for essential principles: equality, uniqueness, and the participation of all in the processes of defining a democratic society. Many practices of women and children’s exclusions essentially derive from social factors (norms, values, quality of institutions, relations of power, educational and cultural practices) that can build strong barriers. Respect for these principles and education for gender culture could foster the renewal of society and the acquisition of fundamental skills for a generative and inclusive society, such as critical skills, cosmopolitan skills, and narrative imagination.

Keywords: capability approach, children’s well-being, education, women’s empowerment

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Authors: Maria Elisabete da Costa Ferreira

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Violent crimes, such as terrorism, organized crime and homicides, are increasing all around the World. This fact calls for the necessity to reflect upon the effectiveness of the deterrence offered by the criminal sanctions set today. The severity of the penalties depends on the social, cultural and even religious background of the State in question. In some States, such as Portugal, the common citizen finds the sentences too soft on the perpetrator and too long to be obtained. On the other hand, in 2023, several States still apply the death penalty, among which the USA, China, and most Middle Eastern countries. As for life in prison without the possibility of parole, the number of countries accepting this possibility in their criminal law is much higher, including England and Wales, the Netherlands, Moldova, Bulgaria, Italy, Ukraine, Poland, Turkey, Russia, and Serbia. This research aims to demonstrate that both the death penalty and life in prison penalty violate the principles of human dignity and social rehabilitation of the perpetrator and propose alternative penalties that can effectively protect society from crime. The research utilizes three main methodologies: the historical method, the comparative method, and the critical method. The historical method is employed to investigate the evolution of criminal penalties over time. The comparative method is used to compare the practices of different states regarding the death penalty and life in prison penalty. Finally, the critical method is applied to analyze and evaluate the shortcomings of these penalties. From a theoretical point of view, there have been drawn several theories throughout the years to support the idea that perpetrators of crimes should be punished. Today, one of the most commonly accepted theories sustains that the penalty will only be legitimate when necessary to protect society from the perpetrator and to rehabilitate him into society. Foremost, the choice of the penalty and the form of its execution should be guided by the principle of human dignity. The death penalty and life in prison penalty fail to achieve the goal of rehabilitation and disregard the human dignity principle. The right to life is a fundamental right declared in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and stated in most Constitutions in the World. In conclusion, the research demonstrates that the death penalty and life in prison penalty are in violation of the principles of human dignity and social rehabilitation. These penalties fail to achieve their intended goals and disregard fundamental human rights. Although it may sound tempting to some States to rethink the current system of instated penalties to the admission of these penalties, it is imperative to take the inverse road because the protection of society must be achieved with respect to the perpetrator's fundamental rights, so, alternative penalties must be enforced. Society's belief in its citizen's ability to change must be reinforced, and, ultimately, the belief in Humankind. The findings of this research contribute to the discussion on the use of these penalties and aim to contribute to their decreasing usage in society.

Keywords: death penalty, life in prison penalty, human dignity, rehabilitation

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Authors: Tesfaye Mengistu

Abstract:

Power cables play a crucial role in the transmission and distribution of electrical energy. As the electricity generation, transmission, distribution, and storage systems become smarter, there is a growing emphasis on incorporating intelligent approaches to ensure the reliability of power cables. Various types of electrical cables are employed for transmitting and distributing electrical energy, with cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) cables being widely utilized due to their exceptional electrical and mechanical properties. However, insulation defects can occur in XLPE cables due to subpar manufacturing techniques during production and cable joint installation. To address this issue, experts have proposed different methods for monitoring XLPE cables. Some suggest the use of interdigital capacitive (IDC) technology for online monitoring, while others propose employing continuous wave (CW) terahertz (THz) imaging systems to detect internal defects in XLPE plates used for power cable insulation. In this study, we have developed models that employ a custom dataset collected locally to classify the physical safety status of individual power cables. Our models aim to replace physical inspections with computer vision and image processing techniques to classify defective power cables from non-defective ones. The implementation of our project utilized the Python programming language along with the TensorFlow package and a convolutional neural network (CNN). The CNN-based algorithm was specifically chosen for power cable defect classification. The results of our project demonstrate the effectiveness of CNNs in accurately classifying power cable defects. We recommend the utilization of similar or additional datasets to further enhance and refine our models. Additionally, we believe that our models could be used to develop methodologies for detecting power cable defects from live video feeds. We firmly believe that our work makes a significant contribution to the field of power cable inspection and maintenance. Our models offer a more efficient and cost-effective approach to detecting power cable defects, thereby improving the reliability and safety of power grids.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, computer vision, defect detection, convolutional neural net

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Authors: Li Yu, Chenlu Jiao, Hongrun Xin, Yan Wang, Kaiyang Wang

Abstract:

In order to study the impact of various factors on the housing price, we propose to build different prediction models based on deep learning to determine the existing data of the real estate in order to more accurately predict the housing price or its changing trend in the future. Considering that the factors which affect the housing price vary widely, the proposed prediction models include two categories. The first one is based on multiple characteristic factors of the real estate. We built Convolution Neural Network (CNN) prediction model and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network prediction model based on deep learning, and logical regression model was implemented to make a comparison between these three models. Another prediction model is time series model. Based on deep learning, we proposed an LSTM-1 model purely regard to time series, then implementing and comparing the LSTM model and the Auto-Regressive and Moving Average (ARMA) model. In this paper, comprehensive study of the second-hand housing price in Beijing has been conducted from three aspects: crawling and analyzing, housing price predicting, and the result comparing. Ultimately the best model program was produced, which is of great significance to evaluation and prediction of the housing price in the real estate industry.

Keywords: deep learning, convolutional neural network, LSTM, housing prediction

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Authors: Gayathri Sadanala, Shibam Pokhrel, Owen Murphy

Abstract:

In the ever-evolving landscape of education, Virtual Reality (VR) environments offer a promising avenue for enhancing student engagement and learning experiences. However, understanding and predicting student behavior within these immersive settings remain challenging tasks. This paper presents a comprehensive study on the predictive modeling of student behavior in VR using machine learning techniques. We introduce a rich data set capturing student interactions, movements, and progress within a VR orientation program. The dataset is divided into training and testing sets, allowing us to develop and evaluate predictive models for various aspects of student behavior, including engagement levels, task completion, and performance. Our machine learning approach leverages a combination of feature engineering and model selection to reveal hidden patterns in the data. We employ regression and classification models to predict student outcomes, and the results showcase promising accuracy in forecasting behavior within VR environments. Furthermore, we demonstrate the practical implications of our predictive models for personalized VR-based learning experiences and early intervention strategies. By uncovering the intricate relationship between student behavior and VR interactions, we provide valuable insights for educators, designers, and developers seeking to optimize virtual learning environments.

Keywords: interaction, machine learning, predictive modeling, virtual reality

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Authors: Wang Mimi, Jiang Changjun, Liu Guanjun, Fang Xianwen

Abstract:

Loop structure often appears in the business process modeling, analyzing the consistency of corresponding workflow net models containing loop structure is a problem, the existing behavior consistency methods cannot analyze effectively the process models with the loop structure. In the paper, by analyzing five kinds of behavior relations of transitions, a three-dimensional figure and two-dimensional behavior relation matrix are proposed. Based on this, analysis method of behavior consistency of business process based on Petri net branching processes is proposed. Finally, an example is given out, which shows the method is effective.

Keywords: workflow net, behavior consistency measures, loop, branching process

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Authors: Tadashi Watanabe, Jinya Katsuyama, Akihiro Mano

Abstract:

The estimation of leak flow rates through narrow cracks in structures is of importance for nuclear reactor safety, since the leak flow could be detected before occurrence of loss-of-coolant accidents. The two-phase critical leak flow rates are calculated using the system analysis code, and two representative non-homogeneous critical flow models, Henry-Fauske model and Ransom-Trapp model, are compared. The pressure decrease and vapor generation in the crack, and the leak flow rates are found to be larger for the Henry-Fauske model. It is shown that the leak flow rates are not affected by the structural temperature, but affected largely by the roughness of crack surface.

Keywords: crack, critical flow, leak, roughness

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Authors: Elisabeth Maidl

Abstract:

The interdependence of climate change and natural hazard goes along with large uncertainties regarding future risks. Regional stakeholders, experts in natural hazards management and scientists have specific knowledge, resp. mental models on such risks. This diversity of views makes it difficult to find common and broadly accepted prevention measures. If the specific knowledge of these types of actors is shared in an interactive knowledge production process, this enables a broader and common understanding of complex risks and allows to agree on long-term solution strategies. Previous studies on mental models confirm that actors with specific vulnerabilities perceive different aspects of a topic and accordingly prefer different measures. In bringing these perspectives together, there is the potential to reduce uncertainty and to close blind spots in solution finding. However, studies that examine the mental models of regional actors on future concrete mass movement risks are lacking so far. The project tests and evaluates the feasibility of knowledge co-creation for the anticipatory prevention of climate change-induced mass movement risks in the Alps. As a key element, mental models of the three included groups of actors are compared. Being integrated into the research program Climate Change Impacts on Alpine Mass Movements (CCAMM2), this project is carried out in two Swiss mountain regions. The project is structured in four phases: 1) the preparatory phase, in which the participants are identified, 2) the baseline phase, in which qualitative interviews and a quantitative pre-survey are conducted with actors 3) the knowledge-co-creation phase, in which actors have a moderated exchange meeting, and a participatory modelling workshop on specific risks in the region, and 4) finally a public information event. Results show that participants' mental models are based on the place of origin, profession, believes, values, which results in narratives on climate change and hazard risks. Further, the more intensively participants interact with each other, the more likely is that they change their views. This provides empirical evidence on how changes in opinions and mindsets can be induced and fostered.

Keywords: climate change, knowledge-co-creation, participatory process, natural hazard risks

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