Search results for: demand forecast updating

Authors: Swati Sundararajan, , Asit B. Samui, Prashant S. Kulkarni

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The global energy crisis has led to extensive research on alternative sources of energy. The gap between energy supply and demand can be met by thermal energy storage techniques, of which latent heat storage is most effective in the form of phase change materials (PCMs). Phase change materials utilize latent heat absorbed or released over a narrow temperature range of the material undergoing phase transformation, to store energy. The latent heat can be utilized for heating or cooling purposes. It can also be used for converting to electricity. All these actions amount to minimizing the load on electricity demand. These materials retain this property over repeated number of cycles. Different PCMs differ in the phase change temperature and the heat storage capacities. Poly(ethylene glycol) (PEG) was cross-linked to hydroxyl-terminated poly(dimethyl siloxane) (PDMS) in the presence of cross-linker, tetraethyl orthosilicate (TEOS) and catalyst, dibutyltin dilaurate. Four different ratios of PEG and PDMS were reacted together, and the composition with the lowest PEG concentration resulted in the formation of a flexible solid-solid phase change membrane. The other compositions are obtained in powder form. The enthalpy values of the prepared PCMs were studied by using differential scanning calorimetry and the crystallization properties were analyzed by using X-ray diffraction and polarized optical microscopy. The incorporation of silicone moiety was expected to reduce the hydrophilic character of PEG, which was evaluated by measurement of contact angle. The membrane forming ability of this crosslinked polymer can be extended to several smart packaging, building and textile applications. The detailed synthesis, characterization and performance evaluation of the crosslinked polymer blend will be incorporated in the presentation.

Keywords: phase change materials, poly(ethylene glycol), poly(dimethyl siloxane), thermal energy storage

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Authors: Ajab G. Majidi, Bilal Bingölbali, Adem Akpınar

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This study aims to investigate the amount of energy (economic wave energy potential) that can be obtained from the existing wave energy converters in the high wave energy potential region of the Black Sea in terms of wave energy potential and their performance at different depths in the region. The data needed for this purpose were obtained using the calibrated nested layered SWAN wave modeling program version 41.01AB, which was forced with Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) winds from 1979 to 2009. The wave dataset at a time interval of 2 hours was accumulated for a sub-grid domain for around Karaburun beach in Arnavutkoy, a district of Istanbul city. The annual sea state characteristic matrices for the five different depths along with a vertical line to the coastline were calculated for 31 years. According to the power matrices of different wave energy converter systems and characteristic matrices for each possible installation depth, the probability distribution tables of the specified mean wave period or wave energy period and significant wave height were calculated. Then, by using the relationship between these distribution tables, according to the present wave climate, the energy that the wave energy converter systems at each depth can produce was determined. Thus, the economically feasible potential of the relevant coastal zone was revealed, and the effect of different depths on energy converter systems is presented. The Oceantic at 50, 75 and 100 m depths and Oyster at 5 and 25 m depths presents the best performance. In the 31-year long period 1998 the most and 1989 is the least dynamic year.

Keywords: annual power production, Black Sea, efficiency, power production performance, wave energy converter

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Authors: Bhavishya Ramchandani

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A little electronic device that is worn on the finger is called a smart ring. It incorporates mobile technology and has features that make it simple to use the device. These gadgets, which resemble conventional rings and are usually made to fit on the finger, are outfitted with features including access management, gesture control, mobile payment processing, and activity tracking. A poor sleep pattern, an irregular schedule, and bad eating habits are all part of the problems with health that a lot of people today are facing. Diets lacking fruits, vegetables, legumes, nuts, and whole grains are common. Individuals in India also experience metabolic issues. In the medical field, smart rings will help patients with problems relating to stomach illnesses and the incapacity to consume meals that are tailored to their bodies' needs. The smart ring tracks all bodily functions, including blood sugar and glucose levels, and presents the information instantly. Based on this data, the ring generates what the body will find to be perfect insights and a workable site layout. In addition, we conducted focus groups and individual interviews as part of our core approach and discussed the difficulties they're having maintaining the right diet, as well as whether or not the smart ring will be beneficial to them. However, everyone was very enthusiastic about and supportive of the concept of using smart rings in healthcare, and they believed that these rings may assist them in maintaining their health and having a well-balanced diet plan. This response came from the primary data, and also working on the Emerging Technology Canvas Analysis of smart rings in healthcare has led to a significant improvement in our understanding of the technology's application in the medical field. It is believed that there will be a growing demand for smart health care as people become more conscious of their health. The majority of individuals will finally utilize this ring after three to four years when demand for it will have increased. Their daily lives will be significantly impacted by it.

Keywords: smart ring, healthcare, electronic wearable, emerging technology

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Authors: Nasrin Hosseinzad, Ramin Ghasemi Shayan

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Chemotherapy is the most common procedure in the treatment of advanced cancers but is justsoberlyoperativeand toxic. Nevertheless, the efficiency of chemotherapy is restrictedowing to multiple drug resistance(MDR). Lately, plentiful preclinical experiments have revealedthatPaclitaxel-Curcumin could be an ultimateapproach to converse MDR and synergistically increase their efficiency. The connotationsamongst B-cell-lymphoma2(BCL-2) and multi-drug-resistance-associated-P-glycoprotein(MDR1) consequence of patients forecast the efficiency of paclitaxel-built chemoradiotherapy. There are evidences of the efficacy of paclitaxel in the treatment of surface-transmission of bladder-cell-carcinoma by manipulating bio-adhesive microspheres accomplishedthroughout measured release of drug at urine epithelium. In Genetically-Modified method, muco-adhesive oily constructionoftricaprylin, Tween 80, and paclitaxel group showed slighter toxicity than control in therapeutic dose. Postoperative chemotherapy-Paclitaxel might be more advantageous for survival than adjuvant chemo-radio-therapy, and coulddiminish postoperative complications in cervical cancer patients underwent a radical hysterectomy.HA-Se-PTX(Hyaluronic acid, Selenium, Paclitaxel) nanoparticles could observablyconstrain the proliferation, transmission, and invasion of metastatic cells and apoptosis. Furthermore, they exhibitedvast in vivo anti-tumor effect. Additionally, HA-Se-PTX displayedminor toxicity on mice-chef-organs. Briefly, HA-Se-PTX mightprogress into a respectednano-scale agentinrespiratory cancers. To sum up, Paclitaxel is considered a profitable anti-cancer drug in the treatment and anti-progress symptoms in malignant cancers.

Keywords: cancer, paclitaxel, chemotherapy, tumor

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Authors: Vandna Raghuvanshi, Vikrant Thakur, Anupam Jhobta

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Objective: To design HRCT criterion to forecast the threat of pulmonary tuberculosis. Material and methods: This was a prospective study of 69 patients with clinical suspicion of pulmonary tuberculosis. We studied their medical characteristics, numerous separate HRCT-results, and a combination of HRCT findings to foresee the danger for PTB by utilizing univariate and multivariate investigation. Temporary HRCT diagnostic criteria were planned in view of these outcomes to find out the risk of PTB and tested these criteria on our patients. Results: The results of HRCT chest were analyzed, and Rank was given from 1 to 4 according to the HRCT chest findings. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were calculated. Rank 1: Highly suspected PTB. Rank 2: Probable PTB Rank 3: Nonspecific or difficult to differentiate from other diseases Rank 4: Other suspected diseases • Rank 1 (Highly suspected TB) was present in 22 (31.9%) patients, all of them finally diagnosed to have pulmonary tuberculosis. The sensitivity, specificity, and negative likelihood ratio for RANK 1 on HRCT chest was 53.6%, 100%, and 0.43, respectively. • Rank 2 (Probable TB) was present in 13 patients, out of which 12 were tubercular, and 1 was non-tubercular. • The sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, and negative likelihood ratio of the combination of Rank 1 and Rank 2 was 82.9%, 96.4%, 23.22, and 0.18, respectively. • Rank 3 (Non-specific TB) was present in 25 patients, and out of these, 7 were tubercular, and 18 were non-tubercular. • When all these 3 ranks were considered together, the sensitivity approached 100% however, the specificity reduced to 35.7%. The positive likelihood ratio and negative likelihood ratio were 1.56 and 0, respectively. • Rank 4 (Other specific findings) was given to 9 patients, and all of these were non-tubercular. Conclusion: HRCT is useful in selecting individuals with greater chances of pulmonary tuberculosis.

Keywords: pulmonary, tuberculosis, multivariate, HRCT

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Authors: Farzaneh Tahmoorian, Bijan Samali, John Yeaman

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Road networks are expanding all over the world during the past few decades to meet the increasing freight volumes created by the population growth and industrial development. At the same time, the rate of generation of solid wastes in the society is increasing with the population growth, technological development, and changes in the lifestyle of people. Thus, the management of solid wastes has become an acute problem. Accordingly, there is a need for greater efficiency in the construction and maintenance of road networks, in reducing the overall cost, especially the utilization of natural materials such as aggregates. An efficient means to reduce construction and maintenance costs of road networks is to replace natural (virgin) materials by secondary, recycled materials. Recycling will also help to reduce pressure on landfills and demand for extraction of natural virgin materials thus ensuring sustainability. Application of solid wastes in asphalt layer reduces not only environmental issues associated with waste disposal but also the demand for virgin materials which will subsequently result in sustainability. Therefore, this research aims to investigate the feasibility of the application of some of the waste materials such as glass, construction and demolition wastes, etc. as alternative materials in pavement construction, particularly flexible pavements. To this end, various combination of different waste materials in certain percentages is considered in designing the asphalt mixture. One of the goals of this research is to determine the optimum percentage of all these materials in the mixture. This is done through a series of tests to evaluate the volumetric properties and resilient modulus of the mixture. The information and data collected from these tests are used to select the adequate samples for further assessment through advanced tests such as triaxial dynamic test and fatigue test, in order to investigate the asphalt mixture resistance to permanent deformation and also cracking. This paper presents the results of these investigations on the application of waste materials in asphalt mixture for production of a sustainable asphalt mix.

Keywords: asphalt, glass, pavement, recycled aggregate, sustainability

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Authors: Dewi Retno Sari Saputro, Purnami Widyaningsih, Hendrika Handayani

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Extreme data on an observation can occur due to unusual circumstances in the observation. The data can provide important information that can’t be provided by other data so that its existence needs to be further investigated. The method for obtaining extreme data is one of them using maxima block method. The distribution of extreme data sets taken with the maxima block method is called the distribution of extreme values. Distribution of extreme values is Gumbel distribution with two parameters. The parameter estimation of Gumbel distribution with maximum likelihood method (ML) is difficult to determine its exact value so that it is necessary to solve the approach. The purpose of this study was to determine the parameter estimation of Gumbel distribution with quasi-Newton BFGS method. The quasi-Newton BFGS method is a numerical method used for nonlinear function optimization without constraint so that the method can be used for parameter estimation from Gumbel distribution whose distribution function is in the form of exponential doubel function. The quasi-New BFGS method is a development of the Newton method. The Newton method uses the second derivative to calculate the parameter value changes on each iteration. Newton's method is then modified with the addition of a step length to provide a guarantee of convergence when the second derivative requires complex calculations. In the quasi-Newton BFGS method, Newton's method is modified by updating both derivatives on each iteration. The parameter estimation of the Gumbel distribution by a numerical approach using the quasi-Newton BFGS method is done by calculating the parameter values that make the distribution function maximum. In this method, we need gradient vector and hessian matrix. This research is a theory research and application by studying several journals and textbooks. The results of this study obtained the quasi-Newton BFGS algorithm and estimation of Gumbel distribution parameters. The estimation method is then applied to daily rainfall data in Purworejo District to estimate the distribution parameters. This indicates that the high rainfall that occurred in Purworejo District decreased its intensity and the range of rainfall that occurred decreased.

Keywords: parameter estimation, Gumbel distribution, maximum likelihood, broyden fletcher goldfarb shanno (BFGS)quasi newton

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Authors: Adamu Muhammed Tukur

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Pulp and paper industry is one of the fastest growing industries due to an increased demand in paper products. For it to satisfy this ever increasing demand, it adopts new technological innovations some of which are proved to affect our environment negatively. Global consumption of paper has increased by 400% in the last four decades and this suggests that more research is required to assess the impact of industrial effluents to our environment and public health. Paper products are generally biodegradable, however, the processes involved in its production which involve the use of mainly bleaching agents and other non-biodegradable substances pose serious problem to the environment. There are more than 250 chemicals released in paper mill waste and some are xenobiotics. Different methods such as physical and chemical methods can be adopted for the remediation of the effluents but are proved to be costly and not safe to the environment. On the other hand, biological method is shown to be less costly and environmentally friendly. Microorganisms and their enzymes have shown a promising future for bioremediation of effluents related to paper mill. Many studies prove that one of the major pollutants in the paper mill effluent is phenol especially its chlorinated derivatives. Pentachlorophenol is extremely hazardous to living cells and therefore need to be removed from the environment. Microorganisms including bacteria and fungi have the potential to degrade phenolic compounds e.g. Bacillus stearothermiphilus, Pseudomonas putida, Coricus versicolor, Sphingomonas chlorophenolica, Fusarium sp, Bacillus subtilis and P. aeroginosa. Enzymes used for the degradation include phenol hydrooxylase, polyphenoloxylase, laccase, peroxidase among others. Lignin is another important pollutant and is resistant to microbial degradation but it has been proved that certain bacteria and fungi like can degrade it. Among the fungi white-rot fungi like Fomes lividus and Trametes vesicolor are the most important bioremediators. This review focused on use of microorganism to reduce or eradicate pollutants released from the paper industry. It can serve as a review for further research to be conducted especially in the field of Biotechnology.

Keywords: bioremediation, pulp and paper, pentachlorophenol, environment

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Authors: Reshu Yadav, Himanshu Joshi, S. K. Tripathi

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Fresh water is a scarce resource which is essential for humans and ecosystems, but its distribution is uneven. Agricultural production accounts for 70% of all surface water supplies. It is projected that against the expansion in the area equipped for irrigation by 0.6% per year, the global potential irrigation water demand would rise by 9.5% during 2021-25. This would, on one hand, have to compete against the sharply rising urban water demand. On the other, it would also have to face the fear of climate change, as temperatures rise and crop yields could drop from 10-30% in many large areas. The huge demand for irrigation combined with fresh water scarcity encourages to explore the reuse of wastewater as a resource. However, the use of such wastewater is often linked to the safety issues when used non judiciously or with poor safeguards while irrigating food crops. Paddy is one of the major crops globally and amongst the most important in South Asia and Africa. In many parts of the world, use of municipal wastewater has been promoted as a viable option in this regard. In developing and fast growing countries like India, regularly increasing wastewater generation rates may allow this option to be considered quite seriously. In view of this, a pilot field study was conducted at the Jagjeetpur Municipal Sewage treatment plant situated in the Haridwar town of Uttarakhand state, India. The objectives of the present study were to study the effect of treated wastewater on the production of various paddy varieties (Sharbati, PR-114, PB-1, Menaka, PB1121 and PB 1509) and emission of GHG gases (CO2, CH4 and N2O) as compared to the same varieties grown in the control plots irrigated with fresh water. Of late, the concept of water footprint assessment has emerged, which explains enumeration of various types of water footprints of an agricultural entity from its production to processing stages. Paddy, the most water demanding staple crop of Uttarakhand state, displayed a high green water footprint value of 2966.538 m3/ton. Most of the wastewater irrigated varieties displayed upto 6% increase in production, except Menaka and PB-1121, which showed a reduction in production (6% and 3% respectively), due to pest and insect infestation. The treated wastewater was observed to be rich in Nitrogen (55.94 mg/ml Nitrate), Phosphorus (54.24 mg/ml) and Potassium (9.78 mg/ml), thus rejuvenating the soil quality and not requiring any external nutritional supplements. Percentage increase of GHG gases on irrigation with treated municipal waste water as compared to control plots was observed as 0.4% - 8.6% (CH4), 1.1% - 9.2% (CO2), and 0.07% - 5.8% (N2O). The variety, Sharbati, displayed maximum production (5.5 ton/ha) and emerged as the most resistant variety against pests and insects. The emission values of CH4 ,CO2 and N2O were 729.31 mg/m2/d, 322.10 mg/m2/d and 400.21 mg/m2/d in water stagnant condition. This study highlighted a successful possibility of reuse of wastewater for non-potable purposes offering the potential for exploiting this resource that can replace or reduce existing use of fresh water sources in agricultural sector.

Keywords: greenhouse gases, nutrients, water footprint, wastewater irrigation

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Authors: Orit Wolf

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Classical music confronts a crucial challenge: updating cherished concert traditions for the digital age. This paper is a journey, and a quest to make classical concerts resonate with a new generation. It's not just about asking questions; it's about exploring the future of classical concerts and their potential to captivate and connect with today's audience in an era defined by change. The younger generation, known for their love of diversity, interactive experiences, and multi-sensory immersion, cannot be overlooked. This paper explores innovative strategies that forge deep connections with audiences whose relationship with classical music differs from the past. The urgency of this challenge drives the transformation of classical concerts. Examining classical concerts is necessary to understand how they can harmonize with contemporary sensibilities. New dimensions in audiovisual experiences that enchant the emerging generation are sought. Classical music must embrace the technological era while staying open to fusion and cross-cultural collaboration possibilities. The role of technology and Artificial Intelligence (AI) in reshaping classical concerts is under research. The fusion of classical music with digital experiences and dynamic interdisciplinary collaborations breathes new life into the concert experience. It aligns classical music with the expectations of modern audiences, making it more relevant and engaging. Exploration extends to the structure of classical concerts. Conventions are challenged, and ways to make classical concerts more accessible and captivating are sought. Inspired by innovative artistic collaborations, musical genres and styles are redefined, transforming the relationship between performers and the audience. This paper, therefore, aims to be a catalyst for dialogue and a beacon of innovation. A set of critical inquiries integral to reshaping classical concerts for the digital age is presented. As the world embraces digital transformation, classical music seeks resonance with contemporary audiences, redefining the concert experience while remaining true to its roots and embracing revolutions in the digital age.

Keywords: new concert formats, reception of classical music, interdiscplinary concerts, innovation in the new musical era, mash-up, cross culture, innovative concerts, engaging musical performances

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Authors: Deniz Guven, Wil Ward, Jinming Duan, Li Bai

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Over the past two decades or so, Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT) has been used to diagnose retina and optic nerve diseases. The retinal nerve fibre layer, for example, is a powerful diagnostic marker for detecting and staging glaucoma. With the advances in optical imaging hardware, the adoption of OCT is now commonplace in clinics. More and more OCT images are being generated, and for these OCT images to have clinical applicability, accurate automated OCT image segmentation software is needed. Oct image segmentation is still an active research area, as OCT images are inherently noisy, with the multiplicative speckling noise. Simple edge detection algorithms are unsuitable for detecting retinal layer boundaries in OCT images. Intensity fluctuation, motion artefact, and the presence of blood vessels also decrease further OCT image quality. In this paper, we introduce a new method for segmenting three-dimensional (3D) OCT images. This involves the use of a Kalman filter, which is commonly used in computer vision for object tracking. The Kalman filter is applied to the 3D OCT image volume to track the retinal layer boundaries through the slices within the volume and thus segmenting the 3D image. Specifically, after some pre-processing of the OCT images, points on the retinal layer boundaries in the first image are identified, and curve fitting is applied to them such that the layer boundaries can be represented by the coefficients of the curve equations. These coefficients then form the state space for the Kalman Filter. The filter then produces an optimal estimate of the current state of the system by updating its previous state using the measurements available in the form of a feedback control loop. The results show that the algorithm can be used to segment the retinal layers in OCT images. One of the limitations of the current algorithm is that the curve representation of the retinal layer boundary does not work well when the layer boundary is split into two, e.g., at the optic nerve, the layer boundary split into two. This maybe resolved by using a different approach to representing the boundaries, such as b-splines or level sets. The use of a Kalman filter shows promise to developing accurate and effective 3D OCT segmentation methods.

Keywords: optical coherence tomography, image segmentation, Kalman filter, object tracking

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Authors: Tim Steinhaus, Christian Beidl

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Urban air quality and climate protection are two major challenges for future mobility systems. Despite the steady reduction of pollutant emissions from vehicles over past decades, local immission load within cities partially still reaches heights, which are considered hazardous to human health. Although traffic-related emissions account for a major part of the overall urban pollution, modeling the exact interaction remains challenging. In this paper, a novel approach for the determination of the emission-immission interaction on the basis of neural network modeling for traffic induced NO2-immission load within a near-traffic hot-spot scenario is presented. In a detailed sensitivity analysis, the significance of relevant influencing variables on the prevailing NO2 concentration is initially analyzed. Based on this, the generation process of the model is described, in which not only environmental influences but also the vehicle fleet composition including its associated segment- and certification-specific real driving emission factors are derived and used as input quantities. The validity of this approach, which has been presented in the past, is re-examined in this paper using updated data on vehicle emissions and recent immission measurement data. Within the framework of a final scenario analysis, the future development of the immission load is forecast for different developments in the vehicle fleet composition. It is shown that immission levels of less than half of today’s yearly average limit values are technically feasible in hot-spot situations.

Keywords: air quality, emission, emission-immission-interaction, immission, NO2, zero impact

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Authors: Sobar M. Johari, Ida Putri Anjarsari

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In the transmission of monetary instrument towards real sector of the economy, Bank Indonesia as monetary authority has developed Islamic Bank Indonesia Certificate (abbreviated as SBIS) as an instrument in Islamic open market operation. One of the monetary transmission channels could take place through financing channel from which the fund is used as the source of banking financing. This study aims to analyse the impact of Islamic monetary instrument towards output or economic growth. Data used in this research is taken from Bank Indonesia and Central Board of Statistics for the period of January 2008 until December 2015. The study employs Granger Causality Test, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Impulse Response Function (IRF) technique and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) as its analytical methods. The results show that, first, the transmission mechanism of banking financing channel are not linked to output. Second, estimation results of VECM show that SBIS, PUAS, and FIN have significant impact in the long term towards output. When there is monetary shock, output or economic growth could be recovered and stabilized in the short term. FEVD results show that Islamic banking financing contributes 1.33 percent to increase economic growth.

Keywords: Islamic monetary instrument, Islamic banking financing channel, economic growth, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)

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Authors: Tesfahiwot Abay Weldearegay

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Ethiopian Federal ministry of health, in collaboration with different partners, provides financial support from sustainable development grants and global fund budget sources to Regional health science colleges through the regional health bureau to improve the quality of training and avail professionals based on the regional health bureau demand from the year of 2012 to 2019EC. It was mainly focused on health extension workers (HEW) Level III&IV, Health Information technicians (HIT), Emergency Medical technicians (EMT), laboratory technicians, Pharmacy technicians, Anesthesia Level V, Radiography, midwifery, Environmental health and biomedical equipment technician. Laboratory technician, Radiography and Pharmacy technician, was retooling program. The study aims at assessing the Utilization and outcome of budgets transferred through regional health bureau to regional health science colleges. The study used both quantitative and qualitative approaches to develop sufficient data to explain the utilization of the budget, and outcomes obtained from the transferred budget and to identify the gaps. The data for the study were obtained through structured questionnaires and interviews was conducted to increase the reliability of the data. Nationally, students enrolled in different disciplines at RHSC through budget support for RHB to improve the quality of training were 87 840 students and the total Budget transferred, according to MOU was 895,752,038 Ethiopian birr. Among the students enrolled nationally in different disciplines at RHSC through budget support only 72% of students have graduated from different disciplines. In Hareri and Addis Ababa, all enrolled students were graduated (100%). At the same time, Oromia 69%, Amara 77%, SNNP 58% students graduated, respectively. The demand of the regional health bureau and the enrollment capacity of health science colleges increased from year to year. The financial support added great value to the HSCs to cop with problems related to student fees, skill lab materials and renovation.

Keywords: emergency medical technician, radiography, Biomedical, health extension

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Authors: Elias Jemal Abdella

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The Blue Nile River is an important shared resource of Ethiopia, Sudan and also, because it is the major contributor of water to the main Nile River, Egypt. Despite the potential benefits of regional cooperation and integrated joint basin management, all three countries continue to pursue unilateral plans for development. Besides, there is great uncertainty about the likely impacts of climate change in water availability for existing as well as proposed irrigation and hydropower projects in the Blue Nile Basin. The main objective of this study is to quantitatively assess the impact of climate change on the hydrological regime of the upper Blue Nile basin, western Ethiopia. Three models were combined, a dynamic Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) regional climate model (RCM) that is used to determine climate projections for the Upper Blue Nile basin for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios for the period 2021-2050. The outputs generated from multimodel ensemble of four (4) CORDEX-RCMs (i.e., rainfall and temperature) were used as input to a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model which was setup, calibrated and validated with observed climate and hydrological data. The outputs from the SWAT model (i.e., projections in river flow) were used as input to a Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) water resources model which was used to determine the water resources implications of the changes in climate. The WEAP model was set-up to simulate three development scenarios. Current Development scenario was the existing water resource development situation, Medium-term Development scenario was planned water resource development that is expected to be commissioned (i.e. before 2025) and Long-term full Development scenario were all planned water resource development likely to be commissioned (i.e. before 2050). The projected change of mean annual temperature for period (2021 – 2050) in most of the basin are warmer than the baseline (1982 -2005) average in the range of 1 to 1.4oC, implying that an increase in evapotranspiration loss. Subbasins which already distressed from drought may endure to face even greater challenges in the future. Projected mean annual precipitation varies from subbasin to subbasin; in the Eastern, North Eastern and South western highland of the basin a likely increase of mean annual precipitation up to 7% whereas in the western lowland part of the basin mean annual precipitation projected to decrease by 3%. The water use simulation indicates that currently irrigation demand in the basin is 1.29 Bm3y-1 for 122,765 ha of irrigation area. By 2025, with new schemes being developed, irrigation demand is estimated to increase to 2.5 Bm3y-1 for 277,779 ha. By 2050, irrigation demand in the basin is estimated to increase to 3.4 Bm3y-1 for 372,779 ha. The hydropower generation simulation indicates that 98 % of hydroelectricity potential could be produced if all planned dams are constructed.

Keywords: Blue Nile River, climate change, hydropower, SWAT, WEAP

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Authors: Zhang Cong, Cai Runlin, Jia Fengjiao

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The evolution of the urban agglomeration spatial structure requires strong support of the inter-city traffic system. And the inter-city traffic system can not only meet the demand of the urban agglomeration transportation but also guide the economic development. To correctly understand the relationship between inter-city traffic planning and urban agglomeration can help the urban agglomeration coordinated developing with the inter-city traffic system. The Yangtze River Delta is one of the most representative urban agglomerations in China with strong economic vitality, high city levels, diversified urban space form, and improved transport infrastructure. With the promotion of industrial division in the Yangtze River Delta and the regional travel facilitation brought by inter-city traffic, the urban agglomeration is characterized by highly increasing of inter-city transportation demand, the urbanization of regional traffic, adjacent regional transportation links breaking administrative boundaries, the networked channels and so on. Therefore, the development of inter-city traffic system presents new trends and challenges. This paper studies the interactions between inter-city traffic system and regional economic growth, regional factor flow, and regional spatial structure evolution in the Yangtze River Delta from two dimensions of time and space. On this basis, the adaptability of inter-city traffic development mode and urban agglomeration space structure is analyzed. First of all, the coordination between urban agglomeration planning and inter-city traffic planning is judged from the planning level. Secondly, the coordination between inter-city traffic elements and industries and population distributions is judged from the perspective of space. Finally, the coordination of the cross-regional planning and construction of inter-city traffic system is judged. The conclusions can provide an empirical reference for intercity traffic planning in Yangtze River Delta region and other urban agglomerations, and it is also of great significance to optimize the allocation of urban agglomerations and the overall operational efficiency.

Keywords: evolution, interaction, inter-city traffic system, spatial structure

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Authors: Fazıl Gökgöz, Fahrettin Filiz

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Electricity prices have sophisticated features such as high volatility, nonlinearity and high frequency that make forecasting quite difficult. Electricity price has a volatile and non-random character so that, it is possible to identify the patterns based on the historical data. Intelligent decision-making requires accurate price forecasting for market traders, retailers, and generation companies. So far, many shallow-ANN (artificial neural networks) models have been published in the literature and showed adequate forecasting results. During the last years, neural networks with many hidden layers, which are referred to as DNN (deep neural networks) have been using in the machine learning community. The goal of this study is to investigate electricity price forecasting performance of the shallow-ANN and DNN models for the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. The forecasting accuracy of the models has been evaluated with publicly available data from the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. Both shallow-ANN and DNN approach would give successful result in forecasting problems. Historical load, price and weather temperature data are used as the input variables for the models. The data set includes power consumption measurements gathered between January 2016 and December 2017 with one-hour resolution. In this regard, forecasting studies have been carried out comparatively with shallow-ANN and DNN models for Turkish electricity markets in the related time period. The main contribution of this study is the investigation of different shallow-ANN and DNN models in the field of electricity price forecast. All models are compared regarding their MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Square) results. DNN models give better forecasting performance compare to shallow-ANN. Best five MAE results for DNN models are 0.346, 0.372, 0.392, 0,402 and 0.409.

Keywords: deep learning, artificial neural networks, energy price forecasting, turkey

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Authors: Almas Hamid, Ghazala Yaqub, Aqsa Riaz

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Qualitative validation was performed to detect the presence of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in various wastewater samples collected from domestic sources (Askari XI housing society, Bedian road Lahore) industrial sources (PET bottles, pharmaceutical, textile) and a municipal drain (Hudiara drain) in Lahore. In addition wastewater analysis of the selected parameter was carried out. pH for wastewater samples from Askari XI, PET bottles, pharmaceutical, textile and Hudiara drain were 6.9, 6.7, 6.27, 7.18 and 7.9 respectively, within the NEQS Pakistan range that is 6-9. TSS for the respective samples was 194, 241, 254, 140 and 251 mg/L, in effluent for pet bottle industry, pharmaceutical and Hudiara drain and exceeded the NEQS Pakistan. Chemical oxygen demand (COD) for the wastewater samples was 896 mg/L, 166 mg/L, 419 mg/L, 812 mg/L and 610 mg/L respectively, all in excess of NEQS (150 mg/L). Similarly the biological oxygen demand (BOD) values (110.8, 170, 423, 355 and 560 mg/L respectively) were also above NEQS limits (80 mg/L). Chloride (Cl-) content, total dissolved solids (TDS) and temperature were found out to be within the prescribed standard limits. The POPs selected for analysis included five pesticides/insecticides (D. D, Karate, Commando, Finis insect killer, Bifenthrin) and three polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) (naphthalene, anthracene, phenanthrene). Peak values of standards were compared with that of wastewater samples. The results showed the presence of D.D in all wastewater samples, pesticide Karate was identified in Askari XI and textile industry sample. Pesticide Commando, Finis (insect killer) and Bifenthrin were detected in Askari XI and Hudiara drain wastewater samples. In case of PAHs; naphthalene was identified in all the five wastewater samples whereas anthracene and phenanthrene were detected in samples of Askari XI housing society, PET bottles industry, pharmaceutical industry and textile industry but totally absent in Hudiara drain wastewater. Practical recommendations have been put forth to avoid hazardous impacts of incurred samples.

Keywords: HPLC studies, lahore, physicochemical analysis, wastewater

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Authors: Farhad Salek, Shahaboddin Resalati

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The production of electric vehicles (EVs) featuring lithium-ion battery technology has substantially escalated over the past decade, demonstrating a steady and persistent upward trajectory. The imminent retirement of electric vehicle (EV) batteries after approximately eight years underscores the critical need for their redirection towards recycling, a task complicated by the current inadequacy of recycling infrastructures globally. A potential solution for such concerns involves extending the operational lifespan of electric vehicle (EV) batteries through their utilization in stationary energy storage systems during secondary applications. Such adoptions, however, require addressing the safety concerns associated with batteries’ knee points and thermal runaways. This paper develops an accurate mathematical model representative of the second-life battery packs from a cell-to-pack scale using an equivalent circuit model (ECM) methodology. Neural network algorithms are employed to forecast the degradation parameters based on the EV batteries' aging history to develop a degradation model. The degradation model is integrated with the ECM to reflect the impacts of the cycle aging mechanism on battery parameters during operation. The developed model is tested under real-life load profiles to evaluate the life span of the batteries in various operating conditions. The methodology and the algorithms introduced in this paper can be considered the basis for Battery Management System (BMS) design and techno-economic analysis of such technologies.

Keywords: second life battery, electric vehicles, degradation, neural network

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Authors: Abhishek N. Srivastava, Rahul Singh, Sumedha Chakma

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The rapid urbanization in the developing countries is generating an enormous amount of waste leading to the creation of unregulated landfill sites at various places at its disposal. The liquid waste, known as leachate, produced from these landfills sites is severely affecting the surrounding water quality. The water quality in the proximity areas of the landfill is found affected by various physico-chemical parameters of leachate such as pH, alkalinity, total hardness, conductivity, chloride, total dissolved solids (TDS), total suspended solids (TSS), sulphate, nitrate, phosphate, fluoride, sodium and potassium, biological parameters such as biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD), Faecal coliform, and heavy metals such as cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb), iron (Fe), mercury (Hg), arsenic (As), cobalt (Co), manganese (Mn), zinc (Zn), copper (Cu), chromium (Cr), nickel (Ni). However, all these parameters are distributive in leachate that produced according to the nature of waste being dumped at various landfill sites, therefore, it becomes very difficult to predict the main responsible parameter of leachate for water quality contamination. The present study is endeavour the comparative analysis of the physical, chemical and biological parameters of various landfills in India viz. Okhla landfill, Ghazipur landfill, Bhalswa ladfill in NCR Delhi, Deonar landfill in Mumbai, Dhapa landfill in Kolkata and Kodungayaiyur landfill, Perungudi landfill in Chennai. The statistical analysis of the parameters was carried out using the Statistical Packages for the Social Sciences (SPSS) and LandSim 2.5 model to simulate the long term effect of various parameters on different time scale. Further, the uncertainties characterization of various input parameters has also been analysed using fuzzy alpha cut (FAC) technique to check the sensitivity of various water quality parameters at the proximity of numerous landfill sites. Finally, the study would help to suggest the best method for the prevention of pollution migration from the landfill sites on priority basis.

Keywords: landfill leachate, water quality, LandSim, fuzzy alpha cut

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Authors: Piyanee Khumpao

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Under the Thai Penal Code and Customs Act, sex toys are criminalized and completely prohibited through the legal interpretation as obscene objects by law enforcement, despite there is no explicit legal sanction against them. The purpose of preventing people from accessing sex toys is to preserve public morals. However, sex toys are still available, exposed, and sold publicly in main cities throughout Thailand. They are easily observed by people of any age. This paper argues that sexuality is human nature and human right. Human deserves sexual pleasure as long as getting sexual pleasure does not inflict any harm on others. Using sex toys in private (individually and/or as a couple with mutual consent) does not constitute any harm nor degrade public moral. Therefore, the complete ban of sex toys shall be lifted and decriminalized. Nevertheless, the economic analysis illustrates that criminalization and prohibition of sex toys would lead to its black market – higher price and lower quantity. Although it is socially desirable to have fewer sex toys in the market, there will usually be high demand for them because sexual pleasure is natural and, hence, people have a lower price elasticity of demand for such things, including pornography. Thus, its deterrent effect is not very effective. Moreover, sex toys vendors still always exist because higher price incentivizes them to act illegally and may gain benefits from selling low-quality sex toys. Consequently, consumers do not have a choice to select high-quality sex toys at a reasonable price. Then, they are forced to purchase low quality sex toys at a higher price. They also may suffer from health issues as well as other harms from its dangerous/toxic substances since lower quality products are manufactured poorly to save costs. A law and economics approach supports the decriminalization of sex toys in Thailand. Other measures to control its availability shall be adopted to protect the vulnerable, such as children. Options are i) zoning or regulation on-premises selling sex toys as in Singapore, Japan, and China, ii) regulations of sex toys as medical apparatus like in the state of Alabama, and iii) the prevention of sex toys exposure in the real (physical) appearance (i.e., allowing virtual exposure of sex toys) like in India.

Keywords: human nature, law and economics approach, sex toys, sexual pleasure

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Authors: Alexander Hedlund, Anna-Karin Stengard, Olof Björkqvist

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A step towards reducing greenhouse gases and energy consumption is to collaborate with the energy system between several industries. This work is based on a case study on integration of pulp and paper mills with a district heating system in Sundsvall, Sweden. Present research shows that it is possible to make a significant reduction in the electricity demand in the mechanical pulping process. However, the profitability of the efficiency measures could be an issue, as the excess steam recovered from the refiners decreases with the electricity consumption. A consequence will be that the fuel demand for steam production will increase. If the fuel price is similar to the electricity price it would reduce the profit of such a project. If the paper mill can be integrated with a district heating system, it is possible to upgrade excess heat from a nearby kraft pulp mill to process steam via the district heating system in order to avoid the additional fuel need. The concept is investigated by using a simulation model describing both the mass and energy balance as well as the operating margin. Three scenarios were analyzed: reference, electricity reduction and energy substitution. The simulation show that the total input to the system is lowest in the Energy substitution scenario. Additionally, in the Energy substitution scenario the steam from the incineration boiler covers not only the steam shortage but also a part of the steam produced using the biofuel boiler, the cooling tower connected to the incineration boiler is no longer needed and the excess heat can cover the whole district heating load during the whole year. The study shows a substantial economic advantage if all stakeholders act together as one system. However, costs and benefits are unequally shared between the actors. This means that there is a need for new business models in order to share the system costs and benefits.

Keywords: energy system, cooperation, simulation method, excess heat, district heating

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Authors: S. Jayasinghe, R. B. N. Dissanayake

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Optimization modelling together with the Network models and Linear Programming techniques is a powerful tool in problem solving and decision making in real world applications. This study developed a mathematical model to optimize the net profit by minimizing the transportation cost. This model focuses the transportation among decentralized production plants to a centralized distribution centre and then the distribution among island wide agencies considering the customer satisfaction as a requirement. This company produces basically 9 types of food items with 82 different varieties and 4 types of non-food items with 34 different varieties. Among 6 production plants, 4 were located near the city of Mawanella and the other 2 were located in Galewala and Anuradhapura cities which are 80 km and 150 km away from Mawanella respectively. The warehouse located in the Mawanella was the main production plant and also the only distribution plant. This plant distributes manufactured products to 39 agencies island-wide. The average values and average amount of the goods for 6 consecutive months from May 2013 to October 2013 were collected and then average demand values were calculated. The following constraints are used as the necessary requirement to satisfy the optimum condition of the model; there was one source, 39 destinations and supply and demand for all the agencies are equal. Using transport cost for a kilometer, total transport cost was calculated. Then the model was formulated using distance and flow of the distribution. Network optimization and linear programming techniques were used to originate the model while excel solver is used in solving. Results showed that company requires total transport cost of Rs. 146, 943, 034.50 to fulfil the customers’ requirement for a month. This is very much less when compared with data without using the model. Model also proved that company can reduce their transportation cost by 6% when distributing to island-wide customers. Company generally satisfies their customers’ requirements by 85%. This satisfaction can be increased up to 97% by using this model. Therefore this model can be used by other similar companies in order to reduce the transportation cost.

Keywords: mathematical model, network optimization, linear programming

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Authors: Rahul Ravindranathan, R. P. Gokul

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India, in its efforts towards economic and social development, is currently experiencing a heavy demand for energy. Due to the lack of sufficient domestic energy reserves, the country is highly dependent on energy imports which has increased rapidly at a rate of about 12 % per annum since 2005. Hence, India is currently focusing its efforts to manage this energy supply and demand gap and eventually achieve energy security. One of the most cost effective means to reduce this gap is by adopting Energy efficiency measures in the country. Initial assessments have shown that Energy efficiency measures have an energy conservation potential of about 23%. For an estimated investment potential of USD 8 Billion, the annual energy savings was estimated to be about 180 Billion Units per annum. In order to explore this huge energy conservation potential, many critical factors need to be considered to achieve practical energy savings. Financing options for these investments is one such major factor. Not only has India come out with various policy level as well as technology level drives to promote Energy efficiency but it has also developed various financing schemes to promote investment in Energy Efficiency projects. The Public sector has already come out with certain financing schemes such as the Partial Risk Guarantee Fund (PRGF), Venture Capital Fund (VCF), Partial Risk Sharing Fund (PRSF) etc., and various sectors are gradually utilizing these schemes to implement energy saving measures. However, additional financing options are required in order to explore the untouched energy conservation potential in the country. Hence, there is a need to develop some innovative financing options for India which would motivate the private sectors as well as financing institutions to invest in these energy saving measures. This paper shall review the existing financing schemes launched by the Government of India and highlight the key benefits as well as challenges with respect to these schemes. In addition to this, the paper would also review new and innovative financing schemes for India and how the same could be adopted in other parts of the globe especially in South and South East Asia. This review would provide an insight to the various Governments as well as Financial Institutions in coming out with new financing schemes for their country.

Keywords: energy, efficiency, financing, India

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Authors: Talha Ali Khan

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Discovering different energy resources to full fill the world growing demand is now one of the society’s bigger challenge for the next half-century. The main task is to convert the sun radiation into electricity via photovoltaic solar cells which is suddenly decreasing $/watt of delivered solar electricity. Therefore, in this context, the sun trackers are those devices that can be used to ameliorate efficiency. In this paper, a variety of the sun tracking systems are evaluated and their merits and demerits are highlighted. The most adept and proficient sun-tracking devices are polar axis and azimuth-elevation types.

Keywords: dual axis, fixed axis, sun tracker, MPPT

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Authors: Habtamu Tkubet Ebuy

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Purpose Conventional dynamic energy simulation tools go beyond the static dimension of simplified methods by providing better and more accurate prediction of building performance. However, their ability to forecast actual performance is undermined by a low representation of human interactions. The purpose of this study is to examine the potential benefits of incorporating information on occupant diversity into occupant behavior models used to simulate building performance. The co-simulation of the stochastic behavior of the occupants substantially increases the accuracy of the simulation. Design/methodology/approach In this article, probabilistic models of the "opening and closing" behavior of the window of inhabitants have been developed in a separate multi-agent platform, SimOcc, and implemented in the building simulation, TRNSYS, in such a way that the behavior of the window with the interconnectivity can be reflected in the simulation analysis of the building. Findings The results of the study prove that the application of complex behaviors is important to research in predicting actual building performance. The results aid in the identification of the gap between reality and existing simulation methods. We hope this study and its results will serve as a guide for researchers interested in investigating occupant behavior in the future. Research limitations/implications Further case studies involving multi-user behavior for complex commercial buildings need to more understand the impact of the occupant behavior on building performance. Originality/value This study is considered as a good opportunity to achieve the national strategy by showing a suitable tool to help stakeholders in the design phase of new or retrofitted buildings to improve the performance of office buildings.

Keywords: occupant behavior, co-simulation, energy consumption, thermal comfort

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Authors: Haj Najafi Leila, Tehranizadeh Mohsen

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Dependencies between diverse factors involved in probabilistic seismic loss evaluation are recognized to be an imperative issue in acquiring accurate loss estimates. Dependencies among component damage costs could be taken into account considering two partial distinct states of independent or perfectly-dependent for component damage states; however, in our best knowledge, there is no available procedure to take account of loss dependencies in story level. This paper attempts to present a method called "modal cost superposition method" for decoupling story damage costs subjected to earthquake ground motions dealt with closed form differential equations between damage cost and engineering demand parameters which should be solved in complex system considering all stories' cost equations by the means of the introduced "substituted matrixes of mass and stiffness". Costs are treated as probabilistic variables with definite statistic factors of median and standard deviation amounts and a presumed probability distribution. To supplement the proposed procedure and also to display straightforwardness of its application, one benchmark study has been conducted. Acceptable compatibility has been proven for the estimated damage costs evaluated by the new proposed modal and also frequently used stochastic approaches for entire building; however, in story level, insufficiency of employing modification factor for incorporating occurrence probability dependencies between stories has been revealed due to discrepant amounts of dependency between damage costs of different stories. Also, more dependency contribution in occurrence probability of loss could be concluded regarding more compatibility of loss results in higher stories than the lower ones, whereas reduction in incorporation portion of cost modes provides acceptable level of accuracy and gets away from time consuming calculations including some limited number of cost modes in high mode situation.

Keywords: dependency, story-cost, cost modes, engineering demand parameter

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Authors: Qiu Jian-Rong, Li Qing-Hui, Zhan Dong, Zhang Lei

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Facing the problem of the demand of economic restructuring and risk of social economy stagnation due to the ageing of population, the Health Service Industry will play a very important role in the structure of industry in the future. During the process, the orient of Chinese sports medicine as well as the joint with preventive medicine, and the integration with data bank and cloud computing will be involved.

Keywords: China, the health service industry, mass sport, data bank

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Authors: D. A. S. Gamage, B. F. A Basnayake, W. A. J. M. de Costa

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Rice is one of the world’s most important cereals. Increasing food production both to meet in-country requirements and to help overcome food crises is one of the major issues facing Sri Lanka today. However, productive land is limited and has mostly been utilized either for food crop production or other uses. Agriculture plays an important and strategic role in the performance of Sri Lankan national economy. A variety of modern agricultural inputs have been introduced, namely ploughs and harvesters, pesticides, fertilizers and lime. Besides, there are several agricultural institutions developing and updating the management of agricultural sector. Modern agricultural inputs cooperate as a catalyst in raising the productivity. However, in the eagerness of gaining profits from the efficient and productive techniques, this modern agricultural input has affected the environment and living things especially those which have been blended from various chemical substance. The increased pressure to maintain a high level of rice output for consumption has resulted in increased use of pesticides and inorganic fertilizer on rice fields in Sri Lanka. The application of inorganic fertilizer has become a burdened to the country in many ways. The excessive reuse of the ground water resources with a considerable application of organic and chemical fertilizers will lead to a deterioration of the quality and quantity of water. Biochar is a form of charcoal produced through the heating of natural organic materials. It has received significant attention recently for its potential as a soil conditioner, a fertilizer and as a means of storing carbon in a sustainable manner. It is the best solution for managing the agricultural wastes while providing a useful product for increasing agricultural productivity and protecting the environment. The objective of this study was to evaluate rice husk charcoal coated urea as a slow releasing fertilizer and compare the total N, P, K, organic matter in soil and yield of rice production.

Keywords: biochar, paddy husk, soil conditioner, rice straw compost

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Authors: Risikat Oladoyin S. Dauda, Onyebuchi Iwegbu

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This study investigates the response of human development outcomes to selected macroeconomic indicators in Nigeria. Human development outcomes is measured by human development index while the selected macroeconomic variables are inflation rate, real interest rate, government capital expenditure, real exchange rate, current account balance, and savings. Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) technique is employed in examining the response of human development index to the macroeconomic shocks. The result from the forecast error variance decomposition and Impulse-Response analysis reveals that fiscal policy (government capital expenditure) shock is the greatest determinant of human development outcomes. This result reiterates the role which the government plays in improving the welfare of the citizenry. The fiscal policy tool is pivotal in human development which comes in the form of investment in education, health, housing, and infrastructure. Further conclusion drawn from this study is that human development outcome positively and significantly responds to shocks from real interest rate, a monetary policy transmission variable and is felt greatly in the short run period. The policy implication of this study is that if capital budget implementation falls below expectations, human development will be engendered. Hence, efforts should be made to ensure that full implementation and appraisal of government capital expenditure is taken sacrosanct as any shock from such plan, engenders human development outcome.

Keywords: human development outcome, macroeconomic outcomes, structural vector autoregression, SVAR

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