Search results for: convergence check

Authors: Gbone Akou Sophie

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Lome state in Togo is considered to have the highest HIV prevalence in Togo according to NAIIS 2023, with the prevalence of 5.5%, Female Sex Workers (FSW) are one of the most vulnerable population, and they are vital in HIV programming. They have the highest HIV prevalence compared to others such as HRM, PWID and Transgender in lome State, Togo. Evidence from Integrated Biological Behavioral Surveillance Survey shows increasing burden of HIV infection from 13.7% in 20018 to 17.2% in 2020 and now 22.9% in 2021 among Female Sex Workers (FSW). This shows their HIV prevalence has been rising over time. The vulnerability status of the FSW in the riverine areas of lome is heightened because of cultural and economic issues where there is exchange of sex for commodities with cross border traders as well as limited access to HIV prevention information. Methods:A cross sectional study which recruited 120 FSW from two Riverine LGAs of Agoe and Kpehenou LGA of Lome State using both snowballing and simple random sampling technique. While semi-structured questionnaire was used as an instrument for data collection among the 120 FSW respondents. Additional information was also elicited from 10 FSW key opinion leaders and community members through in-depth interviews (IDI). Results: 44(36%) of respondents were willing to receive regular HIV care and services as well as visit for STI check-ups at any service point. However, 47(40%) were willing to receive services at private facilities alone, 10 (8%) were willing to receive services at public facilities, 6 (5%) were willing to access services in their homes rather than in the health facility. 13 (11%) were also willing to have peers assist in getting HIV testing services. Conclusion: integrated differentiated model of care for HIV services helps improve HIV services uptake among FSW community especially in the hard- to reach riverine areas which will further lead to epidemic control. Also targeted HIV information should be designed to suit the learning needs of the hard-to reach communities like the riverine areas. More peer educators should be engaged to ensure information and other HIV services reach the riverine communities.

Keywords: female sex workers ( FSW), human immuno-deficiency virus(HIV), prevanlence, service delivery

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Authors: Rose A. Yemson, Ping Jiang, Oyedeji L. Inumoh

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The deployment of wireless sensor network has rapidly increased, however with the increased capacity and diversity of sensors, and applications ranging from biological, environmental, military etc. generates tremendous volume of data’s where more attention is placed on the distributed sensing and little on how to manage, analyze, retrieve and understand the data generated. This makes it more quite difficult to process live sensor data, run concurrent control and update because sensor data are either heavyweight, complex, and slow. This work will focus on developing a web service platform for automatic detection of sensors, acquisition of sensor data, storage of sensor data into a database, processing of sensor data using reconfigurable software components. This work will also create a web service based sensor data management system to monitor physical movement of an individual wearing wireless network sensor technology (SunSPOT). The sensor will detect movement of that individual by sensing the acceleration in the direction of X, Y and Z axes accordingly and then send the sensed reading to a database that will be interfaced with an internet platform. The collected sensed data will determine the posture of the person such as standing, sitting and lying down. The system is designed using the Unified Modeling Language (UML) and implemented using Java, JavaScript, html and MySQL. This system allows real time monitoring an individual closely and obtain their physical activity details without been physically presence for in-situ measurement which enables you to work remotely instead of the time consuming check of an individual. These details can help in evaluating an individual’s physical activity and generate feedback on medication. It can also help in keeping track of any mandatory physical activities required to be done by the individuals. These evaluations and feedback can help in maintaining a better health status of the individual and providing improved health care.

Keywords: HTML, java, javascript, MySQL, sunspot, UML, web-based, wireless network sensor

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Authors: Chitsanzo Isaac

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Across the world, the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic has challenged urban systems and policy frameworks, highlighting societal vulnerabilities and systemic inequities among many communities. Measures of confinement and social distancing to contain the Covid-19 virus have fragmented the physical and social fabric of cities. This has caused urban dwellers to reassess how they engage with their urban surroundings and maintain social ties. Urbanists have presented strategies that would allow communities to survive and even thrive, in extraordinary times of crisis like the pandemic. Tactical Urbanism, particularly the 15-Minute City, has gained popularity. It is considered a resilient approach in the global north, however, it’s transferability to the global south has been called into question. To this end, this paper poses the question: to what extent is the 15-Minute City framework integral sustainable design, and are there processes that make it adoptable by cities in the global south? This paper explores four issues using secondary quantitative data analysis and convergence analysis in the Paris and Blantyre urban regions. First, it questions how the 15-Minute City has been defined and measured, and how it impacts urban dwellers. Second, it examines the extent to which the 15-minute city performs under the lens of frameworks such as Wilber’s integral theory and Fleming’s integral sustainable design theory. Thirdly this work examines the processes that can be transferred to developing cities which foster community resilience through the perspectives of experience, behaviors, cultures, and systems. Finally, it reviews the principal ways in which a multi-perspective reality can be the basis for resilient community design and sustainable urban development. This work will shed a light on the importance of a multi-perspective reality as a means of achieving sustainable urban design goals in developing urban areas.

Keywords: 15-minute city, developing cities, global south, community resilience, integral sustainable design, systems thinking, complexity, tactical urbanism

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Authors: Yeo Ryeong Jeon, Pyong Kon Cho, Eun Ok Han, Hyon Chul Jang, Yong Min Kim

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This study surveyed on recognition related to radiation safety for radiation safety managers and workers those who have been worked in Republic of Korea education and research institution. At present, South Korea has no guideline and manual of radiation safety for education and research institution. Therefore, we tried to find an educational basis for development of radiation safety guideline and manual. To check the level of knowledge, attitude, and behavior about radiation safety, we used the questionnaire that consisted of 29 questions against knowledge, attitude and behavior, 4 questions against self-efficacy and expectation based on four factors (radiation source, human, organizational and physical environment) of the Haddon's matrix. Responses were collected between May 4 and June 30, 2015. We analyzed questionnaire by means of IBM SPSS/WIN 15 which well known as statistical package for social science. The data were compared with mean, standard deviation, Pearson's correlation, ANOVA (analysis of variance) and regression analysis. 180 copies of the questionnaire were returned from 60 workplaces. The overall mean results for behavior level was relatively lower than knowledge and attitude level. In particular, organizational environment factor on the radiation safety management indicated the lowest behavior level. Most of the factors were correlated in Pearson’s correlation analysis, especially between knowledge of human factors and behavior of human factors (Pearson’s correlation coefficient 0.809, P<.01). When analysis performed in line with the main radiation source type, institutions where have been used only opened RI (radioisotope) behavior level was the lowest among all subjects. Finally, knowledge of radiation source factor (β=0.556, P<.001) and human factor(β=0.376, P<.001) had the greatest impact in terms of behavior practice. Radiation safety managers and workers think positively about radiation safety management, but are poorly informed organizational environment of their institution. Thus, each institution need to efforts to settlement of radiation safety culture. Also, pedagogical interventions for improving knowledge on radiation safety needs in terms of safety accident prevention.

Keywords: radiation safety management, factor analysis, SPSS, republic of Korea

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Authors: Dewi Retno Sari Saputro, Purnami Widyaningsih, Hendrika Handayani

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Extreme data on an observation can occur due to unusual circumstances in the observation. The data can provide important information that can’t be provided by other data so that its existence needs to be further investigated. The method for obtaining extreme data is one of them using maxima block method. The distribution of extreme data sets taken with the maxima block method is called the distribution of extreme values. Distribution of extreme values is Gumbel distribution with two parameters. The parameter estimation of Gumbel distribution with maximum likelihood method (ML) is difficult to determine its exact value so that it is necessary to solve the approach. The purpose of this study was to determine the parameter estimation of Gumbel distribution with quasi-Newton BFGS method. The quasi-Newton BFGS method is a numerical method used for nonlinear function optimization without constraint so that the method can be used for parameter estimation from Gumbel distribution whose distribution function is in the form of exponential doubel function. The quasi-New BFGS method is a development of the Newton method. The Newton method uses the second derivative to calculate the parameter value changes on each iteration. Newton's method is then modified with the addition of a step length to provide a guarantee of convergence when the second derivative requires complex calculations. In the quasi-Newton BFGS method, Newton's method is modified by updating both derivatives on each iteration. The parameter estimation of the Gumbel distribution by a numerical approach using the quasi-Newton BFGS method is done by calculating the parameter values that make the distribution function maximum. In this method, we need gradient vector and hessian matrix. This research is a theory research and application by studying several journals and textbooks. The results of this study obtained the quasi-Newton BFGS algorithm and estimation of Gumbel distribution parameters. The estimation method is then applied to daily rainfall data in Purworejo District to estimate the distribution parameters. This indicates that the high rainfall that occurred in Purworejo District decreased its intensity and the range of rainfall that occurred decreased.

Keywords: parameter estimation, Gumbel distribution, maximum likelihood, broyden fletcher goldfarb shanno (BFGS)quasi newton

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Authors: Hardik Goswami, Gayatri Swarnakar

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-Mastitis disease has been known as one of the most costly diseases of dairy cattle and observed as an inflammatory disease of cow and buffalo udder. Mastitis badly affected animal health, quality of milk and economics of milk production along with cause’s great economic loss. Bacteria have been representing the most common etiological agents of mastitis. The antibiotic sensitivity test was important to attain accurate treatment of mastitis. The aim of present research work was to explore prevalence and antibiotic susceptibility pattern of bacterial isolates recovered from cow and buffalo clinical mastitis milk sample. During the period of April 2010 to April 2014, total 1487 clinical mastitis milk samples of cow and buffalo were tested to check the prevalence of mastitis causing bacterial isolates. Milk samples were collected aseptically from the udder at the time of morning milking. The most prevalent bacterial isolates were Staphylococcus aureus (24.34%) followed by coliform bacteria (15.87%), coagulase negative Staphylococcus aureus (13.85%), non-coliform bacteria (13.05%), mixed infection (12.51%), Streptococcus spp. (10.96%). Out of 1487, 140 (9.42%) mastitis milk samples showed no growth on culture media. Identification of bacteria made on the basis of Standard Microbial features and procedures. Antibiotic susceptibility of bacterial isolates was investigated by Kirby-Bauer disk diffusion method. In vitro Antibiotic susceptibility test of bacterial isolates revealed higher sensitivity to Gentamicin (74.6%), Ciprofloxacin (62.1%) and Amikacin (59.4%). The lower susceptibility was shown to Amoxicillin (21.6%), Erythromycin (26.4%) and Ceftizoxime (29.9%). Antibiotic sensitivity pattern revealed Gentamicin are the possible effective antibiotic against the major prevalent mastitis pathogens. Present research work would be helpful in increase production, quality and quantity of milk, increase annual income of dairy owners and improve health of cow and buffaloes.

Keywords: antibiotic, buffalo, cow, mastitis, prevalence

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Authors: Zahra Ebrahimi, Abbas Moradan

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This study investigated the effect of applying different layers of activity for different Iranian intermediate EFL learner’s oral proficiency and two of its components (fluency and accura-cy) for the beneficial use of films within speaking classes. For this purpose, thirty Iranian EFL intermediate learners were selected based on availability sampling, they were divided into one experimental group and one control group, each consisting of 15 participants, who were proved to be homogeneous based on the results obtained from IELTS oral proficien-cy test prior to the treatment. Experimental Group received the treatment which was apply-ing different layers of speaking tasks according to learners’ level of fluency and accuracy. Control group received ordinal treatment of speaking classrooms. The materials for this study consisted of 11 English movies for each session, voice-recorder device, and IELTS oral proficiency tests as well as two interviews based on Ur’s oral scale for measuring fluen-cy and accuracy. The treatment was run for 12 sessions in six weeks. At the end of the treatment, all the students both in experimental and control group were given a post-test interview based on Ur’s scale. To compare and contrast the amount of progress of the learners in different groups the results of the pre-test and post-test of speaking were analysed by using T-tests. Moreover, Multivariate analysis of variance was also used to check the hypotheses. Results showed that application of different layers of activity with regard to students’ level, led to a significantly superior performance in experimental group. Thus, this study verified the positive effect of implementation of different layers of activity and tasks to achieve progress in speaking skill. It can also help to create a less stressful at-mosphere of learning in which all the students will be given specific time to speak and lead them to be autonomous learners.

Keywords: differentiated instruction, learners’ style, multiple intelligence, speaking skill, task-based activities

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Authors: Aly Kassem, Eman Sapet, Eman Abdelbaset, Hosam Mahmoud

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Objective: Hypertension is an important public health challenge being one of the most common worldwide disease-affecting human. Our aim is to study the clinical characteristics, therapeutic regimens, treatment compliance, and risk factors in a sector of of hypertensive patients at Sohag City. Subject and Methods: A cross sectional study; conducted in Sohag city; it involved 520 patients; males (45.7 %) and females (54.3 %). Their ages ranged between 35-85 years. BP measurements, BMI, blood glucose, Serum creatinine, urine analysis, serum Lipids, blood picture and ECG were done all the studied patients. Results: Hypertension presented more between non-smokers (72.55%), females (54.3%), educated patients (50.99%) and patients with low SES (54.9%). CAD presented in (51.63%) of patients, while laboratory investigations showed hyperglycaemia in (28.7%), anemia in (18.3%), high serum creatinine level in (8.49%) and proteinuria in (10.45%) of patient. Adequate BP control was achieved in (49.67%); older patients had lower adequacy of BP control in spite of the extensive use of multiple-drug therapy. Most hypertensive patients had more than one coexistent CV risk factor. Aging, being a female (54.3%), DM (32.3%), family history of hypertension (28.7%), family history of CAD (25.4%), and obesity (10%) were the common contributing risk factors. ACE-inhibitors were prescribed in (58.16%), Beta-blockers in (34.64%) of the patients. Monotherapy was prescribed for (41.17%) of the patients. (75.81%) of patients had regular use of their drug regimens. (49.67%) only of patients had their condition under control, the number of drugs was inversely related to BP control. Conclusion: Hypertensive patients in Sohag city had a profile of high CV risks, and poor blood pressure control particularly in the elderly. A multidisciplinary approach for routine clinical check-up, follow-up, physicians and patients training, prescribing simple once-daily regimens and encouraging life style modifications are recommended. Anti hypertensives, hypertension, elderly patients, risk factors, treatment compliance.

Keywords: anti hypertensives, hypertension, elderly patients, risk factors, treatment compliance

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Authors: Yuanda Ma, Zhiyong Zhang, Zailin Yang, Guanxixi Jiang

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Anisotropy is very common in underground media, such as rock, sand, and soil. Hence, the dynamic response of anisotropy medium under elastic waves is significantly different from the isotropic one. Moreover, underground heterogeneities and structures, such as pipelines, cylinders, or tunnels, are usually made by composite materials, leading to the anisotropy of these heterogeneities and structures. Both the anisotropy of the underground medium and the heterogeneities have an effect on the surface motion of the ground. Aiming at providing theoretical references for earthquake engineering and seismology, the surface motion of anisotropic half-space with a cylindrical anisotropic inclusion embedded under the SH wave is investigated in this work. Considering the anisotropy of the underground medium, the governing equation with three elastic parameters of SH wave propagation is introduced. Then, based on the complex function method and multipolar coordinates system, the governing equation in the complex plane is obtained. With the help of a pair of transformation, the governing equation is transformed into a standard form. By means of the same methods, the governing equation of SH wave propagation in the cylindrical inclusion with another three elastic parameters is normalized as well. Subsequently, the scattering wave in the half-space and the standing wave in the inclusion is deduced. Different incident wave angle and anisotropy are considered to obtain the reflected wave. Then the unknown coefficients in scattering wave and standing wave are solved by utilizing the continuous condition at the boundary of the inclusion. Through truncating finite terms of the scattering wave and standing wave, the equation of boundary conditions can be calculated by programs. After verifying the convergence and the precision of the calculation, the validity of the calculation is verified by degrading the model of the problem as well. Some parameters which influence the surface displacement of the half-space is considered: dimensionless wave number, dimensionless depth of the inclusion, anisotropic parameters, wave number ratio, shear modulus ratio. Finally, surface displacement amplitude of the half space with different parameters is calculated and discussed.

Keywords: anisotropy, complex function method, sh wave, surface displacement amplitude

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Authors: Eric Lee G. Escobedo-Wu, Nidhi Rohatgi, Fouzel Dhebar

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It is challenging for patients to navigate through healthcare systems after-hours. This leads to delays in care, patient/provider dissatisfaction, inappropriate resource utilization, readmissions, and higher costs. It is important to provide patients and providers with effective clinical decision-making tools to allow seamless connectivity and coordinated care. In August 2015, patient-centric Stanford Health Care established Clinical Advice Services (CAS) to provide clinical decision support after-hours. CAS is founded on key Lean principles: Value stream mapping, empathy mapping, waste walk, takt time calculations, standard work, plan-do-check-act cycles, and active daily management. At CAS, Clinical Assistants take the initial call and manage all non-clinical calls (e.g., appointments, directions, general information). If the patient has a clinical symptom, the CAS nurses take the call and utilize standardized clinical algorithms to triage the patient to home, clinic, urgent care, emergency department, or 911. Nurses may also contact the on-call physician based on the clinical algorithm for further direction and consultation. Since August 2015, CAS has managed 228,990 calls from 26 clinical specialties. Reporting is built into the electronic health record for analysis and data collection. 65.3% of the after-hours calls are clinically related. Average clinical algorithm adherence rate has been 92%. An average of 9% of calls was escalated by CAS nurses to the physician on call. An average of 5% of patients was triaged to the Emergency Department by CAS. Key learnings indicate that a seamless connectivity vision, cascading, multidisciplinary ownership of the problem, and synergistic enterprise improvements have contributed to this success while striving for continuous improvement.

Keywords: after hours phone calls, clinical advice services, nurse triage, Stanford Health Care

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Authors: Zahra Abdi, Roghayeh Alipour, Babak Farahi Ghasraboonasr

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Introduction: Diabetes is a serious medical condition that requires constant care. People with type 2 diabetes may also be likely to experience dry, itchy skin and poor wound healing. Some people with diabetes will have a skin problems at some time in their lives and for those not yet diagnosed with diabetes, a skin problem can be an indication of the disease. our purpose was to assess the capability and knowledge of students of Shiraz University of Medical Sciences about prevent from skin complications in diabetes type 2. Methods: In this descriptive cross-sectional study, knowledge of 360 students of Shiraz University of Medical Sciences was evaluated about different ways to avoid skin complications in diabetes type 2. Data were analyzed by spss19.(P<0.05) was considered significant. Results: 360 students of Shiraz University of Medical Sciences participated in this study. 45% of students agree with the effect of Moisturize skin daily, If Diabetics have sensitive skin, choose a fragrance-free, dye-free moisturizer that won’t irritate skin. 52% believe that Protect skin from sun can be so useful, Sun exposure is drying and aging. Use sunscreen with SPF 30 or higher whenever you’re outside. Wear gloves when doing yardwork to protect the skin on your hands. 62% of students strongly agree with Carefully clean any cuts and scrapes, If diabetics notice any sign of infection skin that’s red, swollen, or warm to the touch, or has a foul-smelling drainage or pus should consulting with a doctor immediately. Diabetics should be careful about any injury that takes longer than normal to heal and they should consulting with doctor about them too. 72% of students believe that diabetics should be diligent about daily foot care. Clean and moisturize feet each day and check each foot closely, top and bottom, for wounds even a tiny cut, blisters, or cracked skin. Conclusions: The risk of getting these diabetes complications can be lessened by controlling blood sugar. Skin complications can cause serious consequences. Taking care of skin is so important and using these tips are remarkable effective and help diabetics to look after their skin easier.

Keywords: skin complications, diabetes type 2, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, diabetics

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Authors: Oluwabukola Oluwaseyi Oduntan

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The English Language plays a central and strategic role in the school system because almost all the school subjects are taught using the English language. However, students’ achievement in this subject at senior secondary school is not encouraging. Therefore, this study examined the effects of oral-written mode of assessment on senior secondary school students’ achievement in a descriptive essay. It also examined the moderating effects of students’ gender and class on students’ achievement in a descriptive essay. The study adopted a pretest-posttest, control group, quasi-experimental design with a 2x2x3 factorial matrix. The participant consisted of 140 Senior Secondary II students drawn from four intact classes from four schools randomly selected from four Local Government Areas randomly selected from Oyo town in Oyo State. Two schools were assigned each to the treatment group and the control group. The following instruments were used for the study: Descriptive Essay Achievement Test (r = 0.78); Descriptive Achievement Test Marking Scheme; Check List of Oral-Written Assessment and Teachers’ Instructional Guide on Descriptive Essay (r = 0.81). Seven null hypotheses guided the study and tested at 0.05 level of significance. Data were analyzed using Analysis of Covariance, Estimated Marginal Means and Scheffe post-hoc test. The result revealed that treatment had a significant main effect on students’ achievement in descriptive essay (F(1,127) = 25.407, P < .05, η2 = .167). Students exposed to oral-written assessment had a higher achievement scores ((x ) ̅= 36.15) than those exposed to written assessment ((x ) ̅= 28.55). There was no significant main effect of gender on students’ achievement in descriptive essay (F₍₁, ₁₂₇₎ = .349, P > .05, η2 = .003). The result also revealed that the effects of class was not significant on students’ students’ achievement in descriptive essay (F₍₁, ₁₂₇₎ = .679, P > .05, η2 = .006). Oral-written mode of assessment enhanced students’ achievement in a descriptive essay. It is, therefore, recommended that teachers and curriculum developers should adopt the use of oral-written assessment for better improvement of students’ achievement in a descriptive essay.

Keywords: class, gender, oral-written assessment, written assessment

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Authors: Ahmad AlAbdullah, Ali AlQallaf, Mahdi Hussain, Mohammed AlAttar, Salman Ashknani, Magdy Helal

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We study the effectiveness of the parking service provided at Kuwaiti commercial malls and explore potential problems and feasible improvements. Commercial malls are important to Kuwaitis as the entertainment and shopping centers due to the lack of other alternatives. The difficulty and relatively long times wasted in finding a parking spot at the mall are real annoyances. We applied queuing analysis to one of the major malls that offer paid-parking (1040 parking spots) in addition to free parking. Patrons of the mall usually complained of the traffic jams and delays at entering the paid parking (average delay to park exceeds 15 min for about 62% of the patrons, while average time spent in the mall is about 2.6 hours). However, the analysis showed acceptable service levels at the check-in gates of the parking garage. Detailed review of the vehicle movement at the gateways indicated that arriving and departing cars both had to share parts of the gateway to the garage, which caused the traffic jams and delays. A simple comparison we made indicated that the largest commercial mall in Kuwait does not suffer such parking issues, while other smaller, yet important malls do, including the one we studied. It was suggested that well-designed inlets and outlets of that gigantic mall permitted smooth parking despite being totally free and mall is the first choice for most people for entertainment and shopping. A simulation model is being developed for further analysis and verification. Simulation can overcome the mathematical difficulty in using non-Poisson queuing models. The simulation model is used to explore potential changes to the parking garage entrance layout. And with the inclusion of the drivers’ behavior inside the parking, effectiveness indicators can be derived to address the economic feasibility of extending the parking capacity and increasing service levels. Outcomes of the study are planned to be generalized as appropriate to other commercial malls in Kuwait

Keywords: commercial malls, parking service, queuing analysis, simulation modeling

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Authors: Amal Shehata

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Low back pain related to disc prolapse is localized in the lumbar area and it may be radiated to the lower extremities, starting from neurons near or around the spinal canal. Most of the population may be affected with disc prolapse within their lifetime and leads to lost productivity, disability and loss of function. The study purpose was to examine the effect of rehabilitative nursing program on pain intensity and functional status among patients with discectomy. Design: Aquasi experimental design was utilized. Setting: The study was carried out at neurosurgery department and out patient's clinic of Menoufia University and Teaching hospitals at Menoufia governorate, Egypt. Instrument of the study: Five Instruments were used for data collection: Structured interviewing questionnaire, Functional assessment instrument, Observational check list, Numeric rating Scale and Oswestry low back pain disability questionnaire. Results: There was an improvement in mean total knowledge score about disease process, discectomy and rehabilitation program in study group (25.32%) than control group (7.32%). There was highly statistically significant improvement in lumbar flexibility among study group (80%) than control group (30%) after rehabilitation program than before. Also there was a decrease in pain score in study group (58% no pain) than control group (28% no pain) after rehabilitation program. There was an improvement in total disability score of study group (zero %) regarding effect of pain on the activity of daily living after rehabilitation program than control group (16%). Conclusion: Application of rehabilitative nursing program for patient with discectomy had proven a positive effect in relation to knowledge score, pain reduction, activity of daily living and functional abilities. Recommendation: A continuous rehabilitative nursing program should be carried out for all patients immediately after discectomy surgery on regular basis. Also A colored illustrated booklet about rehabilitation program should be available and distributed for all patients before surgery.

Keywords: discectomy, rehabilitative nursing program, pain intensity, functional status

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Authors: Charles Iledun Oyewole, Harira Shuaib

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While fulfilling the food security of an increasing population like Nigeria remains a major global concern, more than one-third of crop harvested is lost or wasted during harvesting or in postharvest operations. Reducing the harvest and postharvest losses, especially in developing countries, could be a sustainable solution to increase food availability, eliminate hunger and improve farmers’ livelihoods. Nigeria is one of the countries in sub-Saharan Africa with insufficient food production and high food import bill, which has had debilitating effects on the country’s economy. One of the goals of Nigeria’s agricultural development policy is to ensure that, the nation produces enough food and be less dependent on importation so as to ensure adequate and affordable food for all. Maize could fill the food gap in Nigeria’s effort to beat hunger and food insecurity. Maize is the most important cereal after rice and its production contributes immensely to food availability on the tables of many Nigerians. Maize grains constitute primary source of food for large percentage of the Nigerian populace, thus a considerable waste of this valuable food pre and post-harvest constitutes such a major agricultural bottleneck; that the reduction of pre and post-harvest losses is now a common food security strategy. In surveys conducted, as much as 60% maize outputs can be lost on the field and during the storage stage due to technical inefficiency. Field losses due to rodent damage alone can account for between 10% - 60% grain losses depending on the location. While the use of scientific storage methods can reduce losses below 2% in storage, timely harvesting of crop can check losses on the fields resulting from rodent damage or pest infestation. A push for increased crop production must be complemented by available and affordable post-harvest technologies that will reduce losses on farmers’ fields as well as in storage.

Keywords: government policy, maize, population increase, storage, sustainable food production, yield, yield losses

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Authors: Avitus A. Agbor

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Numerous incidents, ranging from trivial to catastrophic, do come to mind when one reflects on hate. The victims of these belong to specific identifiable groups within communities. These experiences evoke discussions on Islamophobia, xenophobia, homophobia, anti-Semitism, racism, ethnic hatred, atheism, and other brutal forms of bigotry. Common to all these is an invisible but portent force that drives all of them: hatred. Such hatred is usually fueled by a profound degree of intolerance (to diversity) and the zeal to impose on others their beliefs and practices which they consider to be the conventional norm. More importantly, the perpetuation of these hateful acts is the unfortunate outcome of an overplay of invectives and hate speech which, to a greater extent, cannot be divorced from hate. From a legal perspective, acknowledging the existence of an undeniable link between hate speech and hate is quite easy. However, both within and without legal scholarship, the notion of “hate speech” remains a conundrum: a phrase that is quite easily explained through experiences than propounding a watertight definition that captures the entire essence and nature of what it is. The problem is further compounded by a few factors: first, within the international human rights framework, the notion of hate speech is not used. In limiting the right to freedom of expression, the ICCPR simply excludes specific kinds of speeches (but does not refer to them as hate speech). Regional human rights instruments are not so different, except for the subsequent developments that took place in the European Union in which the notion has been carefully delineated, and now a much clearer picture of what constitutes hate speech is provided. The legal architecture in domestic legal systems clearly shows differences in approaches and regulation: making it more difficult. In short, what may be hate speech in one legal system may very well be acceptable legal speech in another legal system. Lastly, the cornucopia of academic voices on the issue of hate speech exude the divergence thereon. Yet, in the absence of a well-formulated and universally acceptable definition, it is important to consider how hate speech can be defined. Taking an evidence-based approach, this research looks into the issue of defining hate speech in legal scholarship and how and why such a formulation is of critical importance in the prohibition and prosecution of hate speech.

Keywords: hate speech, international human rights law, international criminal law, freedom of expression

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Authors: Christina Hagen, Pragathi Kamale Gurmurthy, Thorsten M. Buzug

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CFD simulations are performed in the upper airway of a patient suffering from obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) that is a sleep related breathing disorder characterized by repetitive partial or complete closures of the upper airways. The simulations are aimed at getting a better understanding of the pathophysiological flow patterns in an OSA patient. The simulation is compared to medical data of a sleep endoscopic examination under sedation. A digital model consisting of surface triangles of the upper airway is extracted from the MR images by a region growing segmentation process and is followed by a careful manual refinement. The computational domain includes the nasal cavity with the nostrils as the inlet areas and the pharyngeal volume with an outlet underneath the larynx. At the nostrils a flat inflow velocity profile is prescribed by choosing the velocity such that a volume flow rate of 150 ml/s is reached. Behind the larynx at the outlet a pressure of -10 Pa is prescribed. The stationary incompressible Navier-Stokes equations are numerically solved using finite elements. A grid convergence study has been performed. The results show an amplification of the maximal velocity of about 2.5 times the inlet velocity at a constriction of the pharyngeal volume in the area of the tongue. It is the same region that also shows the highest pressure drop from about 5 Pa. This is in agreement with the sleep endoscopic examinations of the same patient under sedation showing complete contractions in the area of the tongue. CFD simulations can become a useful tool in the diagnosis and therapy of obstructive sleep apnea by giving insight into the patient’s individual fluid dynamical situation in the upper airways giving a better understanding of the disease where experimental measurements are not feasible. Within this study, it could been shown on one hand that constriction areas within the upper airway lead to a significant pressure drop and on the other hand a good agreement of the area of pressure drop and the area of contraction could be shown.

Keywords: biomedical engineering, obstructive sleep apnea, pharynx, upper airways

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Authors: Shahin A. Abdel-Naby, James P. Colgan, Michael S. Pindzola

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A time-dependent close-coupling method is developed to calculate a total, double and triple autoionization rates for hollow atomic ions of four-electron systems. This work was motivated by recent observations of the four-electron Auger process in near K-edge photoionization of C+ ions. The time-dependent close-coupled equations are solved using lattice techniques to obtain a discrete representation of radial wave functions and all operators on a four-dimensional grid with uniform spacing. Initial excited states are obtained by relaxation of the Schrodinger equation in imaginary time using a Schmidt orthogonalization method involving interior subshells. The radial wave function grids are partitioned over the cores on a massively parallel computer, which is essential due to the large memory requirements needed to store the coupled-wave functions and the long run times needed to reach the convergence of the ionization process. Total, double, and triple autoionization rates are obtained by the propagation of the time-dependent close-coupled equations in real-time using integration over bound and continuum single-particle states. These states are generated by matrix diagonalization of one-electron Hamiltonians. The total autoionization rates for each L excited state is found to be slightly above the single autoionization rate for the excited configuration using configuration-average distorted-wave theory. As expected, we find the double and triple autoionization rates to be much smaller than the total autoionization rates. Future work can be extended to study electron-impact triple ionization of atoms or ions. The work was supported in part by grants from the American University of Sharjah and the US Department of Energy. Computational work was carried out at the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC) in Berkeley, California, USA.

Keywords: hollow atoms, autoionization, auger rates, time-dependent close-coupling method

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Authors: Molla Tadesse Lakew

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This study was intended to identify the factors influencing the use of mobile phones in vegetable marketing in Fogera district. The use of mobile phones in vegetable marketing and factors influencing mobile phone use were specific objectives of the study. Three kebeles from the Fogera district were selected purposively based on their vegetable production potential. A simple random sampling technique (lottery method) was used to select 153 vegetable producer farmers. Interview schedule and key informants interviews were used to collect primary data. For analyzing the data, descriptive statistics like frequency and percentage, two independent t-tests, and chi-square were used. Furthermore, econometric analysis (binary logistic model) was used to assess the factors influencing mobile phone use for vegetable market information. Contingency coefficient and variance inflation factor were used to check multicollinearity problems between the independent variables. Of 153 respondents, 82 (61.72%) were mobile phone users, while 71 (38.28 %) were mobile phone nonusers. Moreover, the main use of mobile phones in vegetable marketing includes communicating at a distance to save time and minimizing transport costs, getting vegetable marketing price information, identifying markets and buyers to sell the vegetable, deciding when to sell the vegetable, negotiating with buyers for better vegetable prices and for searching of the fast market to avoid from losing of product through perishing. The model result indicated that the level of education, size of land, income, access to credit, and age were significant variables affecting the use of mobile phones in vegetable marketing. It could be recommended to encourage adult education or give training for farmers on how to operate mobile phones and create awareness for the elderly rural farmers as they are able to use the mobile phone for their vegetable marketing. Moreover, farmers should be aware that mobile phones are very important for those who own very small land to get maximum returns from their production. Lastly, providing access to credit and improving and diversifying income sources for the farmers to have mobile phones were recommended to improve the livelihood of farmers.

Keywords: mobile phone, farmers, vegetable marketing, Fogera District

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Authors: Oluseun S. Oyelakin, Olalekan W. Olaniyi

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A field experiment was conducted at Ido town in Ido Local Government Area of Oyo state, Nigeria to determine the effects of intercropping maize (Zea mays L.) with Jack bean (Canavalia ensiformis L.) at different spacing and weeding regimes on crops productivity. The treatments were 2 x 2 x 3 factorial arrangement involving two spatial crop arrangements. Spacing of 75 cm x 50 cm and 90 cm x 42 cm (41.667 cm) with two plants per stand resulted in plant population of approximately 53,000 plants/hectare. Also, Randomized Complete Block Design (RCBD) with two cropping patterns (sole and intercrop), three weeding regimes (weedy check, weeds once, and weed twice) with three replicates was used. Data were analyzed with SAS (Statistical Analysis System) and statistical means separated using Least Significant Difference (LSD) (P ≤ 0.05). Intercropping and crop spacing did not have significant influence on the growth parameters and yield parameters. The maize grain yield of 1.11 t/ha obtained under sole maize was comparable to 1.05 t/ha from maize/jack beans. Weeding regime significantly influenced growth and yields of maize in intercropping with Jack beans. Weeding twice resulted in significantly higher growth than that of the other weeding regimes. Plant height at 6 Weeks After Sowing (WAS) under weeding twice regime (3 and 6 WAS) was 83.9 cm which was significantly different from 67.75 cm and 53.47 cm for weeding once (3 WAS) and no weeding regimes respectively. Moreover, maize grain yield of 1.3 t/ha obtained from plots weeded twice was comparable to that of 1.23 t/ha from single weeding and both were significantly higher than 0.71 t/ha maize grain yield obtained from the no weeding control. The dry matter production of Jack beans reduced at some growth stages due to intercropping of maize with Jack beans though with no significance effect on the other growth parameters of the crop. There was no effect on the growth parameters of Jack beans in maize/jack beans intercrop based on cropping spacing while comparable growth and dry matter production in Jack beans were produced in maize/Jack beans mixture with single weeding.

Keywords: crop spacing, intercropping, growth parameter, weeding regime, sole cropping, WAS, week after sowing

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Authors: Abhishek N. Srivastava, Rahul Singh, Sumedha Chakma

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The rapid urbanization in the developing countries is generating an enormous amount of waste leading to the creation of unregulated landfill sites at various places at its disposal. The liquid waste, known as leachate, produced from these landfills sites is severely affecting the surrounding water quality. The water quality in the proximity areas of the landfill is found affected by various physico-chemical parameters of leachate such as pH, alkalinity, total hardness, conductivity, chloride, total dissolved solids (TDS), total suspended solids (TSS), sulphate, nitrate, phosphate, fluoride, sodium and potassium, biological parameters such as biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD), Faecal coliform, and heavy metals such as cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb), iron (Fe), mercury (Hg), arsenic (As), cobalt (Co), manganese (Mn), zinc (Zn), copper (Cu), chromium (Cr), nickel (Ni). However, all these parameters are distributive in leachate that produced according to the nature of waste being dumped at various landfill sites, therefore, it becomes very difficult to predict the main responsible parameter of leachate for water quality contamination. The present study is endeavour the comparative analysis of the physical, chemical and biological parameters of various landfills in India viz. Okhla landfill, Ghazipur landfill, Bhalswa ladfill in NCR Delhi, Deonar landfill in Mumbai, Dhapa landfill in Kolkata and Kodungayaiyur landfill, Perungudi landfill in Chennai. The statistical analysis of the parameters was carried out using the Statistical Packages for the Social Sciences (SPSS) and LandSim 2.5 model to simulate the long term effect of various parameters on different time scale. Further, the uncertainties characterization of various input parameters has also been analysed using fuzzy alpha cut (FAC) technique to check the sensitivity of various water quality parameters at the proximity of numerous landfill sites. Finally, the study would help to suggest the best method for the prevention of pollution migration from the landfill sites on priority basis.

Keywords: landfill leachate, water quality, LandSim, fuzzy alpha cut

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Authors: Nizamuddin Khan

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Integrated livestock and cropping system is very old agricultural practice since antiquity. It is an eco-friendly and sustainable farming system in which both the resources are optimally and rationally utilized through the recycling and re-utilization of their by-products. Indian farmers follow in- farm integrated farming system unlike in developed countries where both farm and off-farm system prevailed. The data on different components of the integrated farming system is very limited and that too is not widely available in published form. The primary source is the only option for understanding the mechanism, process, evaluation and performance of integrated livestock cropping system. Researcher generated data through the field survey of sampled respondents from sampled villages from Bulandshahr district of Uttar Pradesh. The present paper aims to understand the component group of system, degree, and level of integration, level of generation of employment, income, improvement in farm ecology, the economic viability of farmers and check in rural-urban migration. The study revealed that area witnessed intra farm integration in which both livestock and cultivation of crops take place on the same farm. Buffalo, goat, and poultry are common components of integration. Wheat, paddy, sugarcane and horticulture are among the crops. The farmers are getting 25% benefit more than those who do not follow the integrated system. Livestock husbandry provides employment and income through the year, especially during agriculture offseason. 80% of farmers viewed that approximately 35% of the total expenditure incurred is met from the livestock sector. Landless, marginal and small farmers are highly benefited from agricultural integration. About 70% of farmers acknowledged that using wastes of animals and crops the soil ecology is significantly maintained. Further, the integrated farming system is helpful in reducing rural to urban migration. An incentive with credit facilities, assured marketing, technological aid and government support is urgently needed for sustainable development of agriculture and farmers.

Keywords: integrated, recycle, employment, soil ecology, sustainability

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Authors: Atiwit Sinyoo, Sekh Thanprasertsuk, Sithiporn Agthong, Pasakorn Watanatada, Shaun Peter Qureshi, Saknan Bongsebandhu-Phubhakdi

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Background: Since the SARS-CoV-2 virus became extensively disseminated throughout the world, online learning has become one of the most hotly debated topics in educational reform. While some studies have already shown the advantage of online learning, there are still questions concerning how online learning affects students’ learning behavior and academic achievement when each student learns in a different way. Hence, we aimed to develop a guide for preclinical medical students to avoid drawbacks and get benefits from online learning that possibly a double-edged sword. Methods: We used a multiple-choice questionnaire to evaluate the learning behavior of second-year Thai medical students in the neuroscience course. All traditional face-to-face lecture classes were video-recorded and promptly posted to the online learning platform throughout this course. Students could pick and choose whatever classes they wanted to attend, and they may use online learning as often as they wished. Academic performance was evaluated as summative score, spot exam score and pre-post-test improvement. Results: More frequently students used online learning platform, the less they attended lecture classes (P = 0.035). High proactive online learners (High PO) who were irregular attendee (IrA) had significantly lower summative scores (P = 0.026), spot exam score (P = 0.012) and pre-post-test improvement (P = 0.036). In the meanwhile, conditional attendees (CoA) who only attended classes with attendance check had significantly higher summative score (P = 0.025) and spot exam score (P = 0.001) if they were in the High PO group. Conclusions: The benefit and drawbacks edges of using an online learning platform were demonstrated in our research. Based on this double-edged sword effect, we believe that online learning is a valuable learning strategy, but students must carefully plan their study schedule to gain the “benefit edge” meanwhile avoiding its “drawback edge”.

Keywords: academic performance, assessment, attendance, online learning, preclinical medical students

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Authors: Hafiza Javaria Ashraf, Asim Abbasi, Muhammad Hussnain Babar, Muhammad Sufyan

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Brevicoryne brassicae (Aphid) is not only the major biotic constraint of rapeseed crop but also transmits 20 different viral pathogens that cause diseases in crucifers. Aphids cause major losses to rapeseed by stunting growth and yield, with real damage being contamination of harvested heads. The misuse of pesticides has led to tremendous economic losses and hazards to human health and environmental pollution. Thus, newer approaches for pest control are continuously being sought. The naturally occurring, biologically active plant-based products seem to have a prominent role in the development of future commercial pesticides not only for increased productivity but their eco-friendly nature. The present experiment was carried out in Research Area of Ayub Agriculture Research Institute, Faisalabad to check the efficacy of different botanicals against rapeseed aphid. The tested botanicals were, neem seed extract, neem leaf extract, dathora seed extract, kaner leaf extract and aak leaf extract. Insecticide, advantage 20 EC served as the positive control in the experiment. Data was recorded before and after 1, 3 and 7 days of treatment application. The results of the experiment revealed that neem seed extract exhibited maximum mortality (48.42%) followed by dathora (45.54%) and kaner leaf extract (40.29%) after 7 days of treatment application. However minimum mortality i.e. 26.64% was observed in case of aak leaf extract. Advantage encountered maximum mortality i.e. 86.14%. All treatments caused maximum mortality after 7 days of treatment application. In case of pollinators maximum population reduction was observed in case of insecticide (74.29%) while minimum reduction was observed in neem leaf extract (11.57%). Hence it was concluded that unlike insecticides, plant based products can be a better option for regulating pests and conserving beneficial insect fauna.

Keywords: Aphid, mortality, plant based, pollinators

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Authors: Faizan Hassan, Seema Kumari, V. P. Singh, Pradeep Das, Diwakar Singh Dinesh

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Phlebotomus argentipes is an established vector for Visceral Leishmaniasis in Indian subcontinent. Laboratory colonization of Sand flies is imperative in research on vectors, which requires a proper diet for their larvae and adult growth that ultimately affects their survival and fecundity. In most of the laboratories, adult Sand flies are reared on rabbit blood feeding/artificial blood feeding and their larvae on fine grinded rabbit faeces as a sole source of food. Rabbit faeces are unhygienic, difficult to handle, high mites infestation as well as owing to bad odour which creates menacing to human users ranging from respiratory problems to eye infection and most importantly it does not full fill all the nutrients required for proper growth and development. It is generally observed that the adult emergence is very low in comparison to egg hatched, which may be due to insufficient food nutrients provided to growing larvae. To check the role of food nutrients on larvae survival and adult emergence, a high protein rich artificial diet for sand fly larvae were used in this study. The composition of artificial diet to be tested includes fine grinded (9 gm each) Rice, Pea nuts & Soyabean balls. These three food ingredients are rich source of all essential amino acids along with carbohydrate and minerals which is essential for proper metabolism and growth. In this study artificial food was found significantly more effective for larval development and adult emergence than rabbit faeces alone (P value >0.05). The weight of individual larvae was also found higher in test pots than the control. This study suggest that protein plays an important role in insect larvae development and adding carbohydrate will also enhances the fecundity of insects larvae.

Keywords: artificial food, nutrients, Phlebotomus argentipes, sand fly

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Authors: Subodh Kumar, Sanjeev Kumar Sharma, Gaurav Kaushik, Pramod Avti, Phulen Sarma, Bikash Medhi, Krishan Lal Khanduja

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Background: It is well known that cigarette smoke is one of the causative factors in various lung diseases especially cancer. Carcinogens and oxidant molecules present in cigarette smoke not only damage the cellular constituents (lipids, proteins, DNA) but may also regulate the molecular pathways involved in inflammation and cancer. Continuous oxidative stress caused by the constituents of cigarette smoke leads to higher PhospholipaseA₂ (PLA₂) activity, resulting in elevated levels of secondary metabolites whose role is well defined in cancer. To reduce the burden of chronic inflammation as well as oxidative stress, and higher levels of secondary metabolites, we checked the curative potential of PLA₂ inhibitor Bromoenol Lactone (BEL) during continuous exposure of cigarette smoke condensate (CSC). Aim: To check the therapeutic potential of Bromoenol Lactone (BEL), an inhibitor of PhospholipaseA₂s, in pathways of CSC-induced changes in type I and type II alveolar epithelial cells. Methods: Effect of BEL on CSC-induced PLA2 activity were checked using colorimetric assay, cellular toxicity using cell viability assay, membrane integrity using fluorescein di-acetate (FDA) uptake assay, reactive oxygen species (ROS) levels and apoptosis markers through flow cytometry, and cellular regulation using MAPKinases levels, in lung epithelium. Results: BEL significantly mimicked CSC-induced PLA₂ activity, ROS levels, apoptosis, and kinases level whereas improved cellular viability and membrane integrity. Conclusions: Current observations revealed that BEL may be a potential therapeutic agent during Cigarette smoke-induced anomalies in lung epithelium.

Keywords: cigarette smoke condensate, phospholipase A₂, oxidative stress, alveolar epithelium, bromoenol lactone

Procedia PDF Downloads 165

Authors: Jéssica Ferreira Rodrigues, Júlio Silvio De Sousa Bueno Filho, Vanessa Rios De Souza, Ana Carla Marques Pinheiro

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This study aimed to evaluate the implications of the block size and testing order on efficiency and precision of preference estimation for Dulce de leche samples. Efficiency was defined as the inverse of the average variance of pairwise comparisons among treatments. Precision was defined as the inverse of the variance of treatment means (or effects) estimates. The experiment was originally designed to test 16 treatments as a series of 8 Sudoku 16x16 designs being 4 randomized independently and 4 others in the reverse order, to yield balance in testing order. Linear mixed models were assigned to the whole experiment with 112 testers and all their grades, as well as their partially balanced subgroups, namely: a) experiment with the four initial EU; b) experiment with EU 5 to 8; c) experiment with EU 9 to 12; and b) experiment with EU 13 to 16. To record responses we used a nine-point hedonic scale, it was assumed a mixed linear model analysis with random tester and treatments effects and with fixed test order effect. Analysis of a cumulative random effects probit link model was very similar, with essentially no different conclusions and for simplicity, we present the results using Gaussian assumption. R-CRAN library lme4 and its function lmer (Fit Linear Mixed-Effects Models) was used for the mixed models and libraries Bayesthresh (default Gaussian threshold function) and ordinal with the function clmm (Cumulative Link Mixed Model) was used to check Bayesian analysis of threshold models and cumulative link probit models. It was noted that the number of samples tested in the same session can influence the acceptance level, underestimating the acceptance. However, proving a large number of samples can help to improve the samples discrimination.

Keywords: acceptance, block size, mixed linear model, testing order, testing order

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Authors: Kathryn Rooney, Kaitlyn Eddy, Evan Landers, Weihui Li

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The international mortality rate for neonates and infants has been declining at a disproportionally low rate when compared to the overall decline in child mortality in recent decades. A significant portion of infant deaths could be prevented with the implementation of low-cost and easy to use physiological monitoring devices, by enabling early identification of symptoms before they progress into life-threatening illnesses. The oral diagnostic device discussed in this paper serves to continuously monitor the key vital signs of body temperature, respiratory rate, heart rate, and oxygen saturation. The device mimics an infant pacifier, designed to be easily tolerated by infants as well as orthodontically inert. The fundamental measurements are gathered via thermistors and a pulse oximeter, each encapsulated in medical-grade silicone and wired internally to a microcontroller chip. The chip then translates the raw measurements into physiological values via an internal algorithm, before outputting the data to a liquid crystal display screen and an Android application. Additionally, a biological sample collection chamber is incorporated into the internal portion of the device. The movement within the oral chamber created by sucking on the pacifier-like device pushes saliva through a small check valve in the distal end, where it is accumulated and stored. The collection chamber can be easily removed, making the sample readily available to be tested for various diseases and analytes. With the vital sign monitoring and sample collection offered by this device, abnormal fluctuations in physiological parameters can be identified and appropriate medical care can be sought. This device enables preventative diagnosis for infants who may otherwise have gone undiagnosed, due to the inaccessibility of healthcare that plagues vast numbers of underprivileged populations.

Keywords: neonate mortality, infant mortality, low-cost diagnostics, vital signs, saliva testing, preventative care

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Authors: Roengchai Tansuchat, Woraphon Yamaka, Paravee Maneejuk

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From the past recent, the global financial crisis, economic instability, and large fluctuation in agricultural commodity price have led to increased concerns about the volatility transmission among them. The problem is further exacerbated by commodities volatility caused by other commodity price fluctuations, hence the decision on hedging strategy has become both costly and useless. Thus, this paper is conducted to analysis the volatility spillover effect among major agriculture including corn, soybeans, wheat and rice, to help the commodity suppliers hedge their portfolios, and manage the risk and co-volatility of them. We provide a switching regime approach to analyzing the issue of volatility spillovers in different economic conditions, namely upturn and downturn economic. In particular, we investigate relationships and volatility transmissions between these commodities in different economic conditions. We purposed a Copula-based multivariate Markov Switching GARCH model with two regimes that depend on an economic conditions and perform simulation study to check the accuracy of our proposed model. In this study, the correlation term in the cross-hedge ratio is obtained from six copula families – two elliptical copulas (Gaussian and Student-t) and four Archimedean copulas (Clayton, Gumbel, Frank, and Joe). We use one-step maximum likelihood estimation techniques to estimate our models and compare the performance of these copula using Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC). In the application study of agriculture commodities, the weekly data used are conducted from 4 January 2005 to 1 September 2016, covering 612 observations. The empirical results indicate that the volatility spillover effects among cereal futures are different, as response of different economic condition. In addition, the results of hedge effectiveness will also suggest the optimal cross hedge strategies in different economic condition especially upturn and downturn economic.

Keywords: agricultural commodity futures, cereal, cross-hedge, spillover effect, switching regime approach

Procedia PDF Downloads 184

Authors: Thi Thanh Nga Pham, Damien Philippon, Alexis Drogoul, Thi Thu Thuy Nguyen, Tien Cong Nguyen

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Mekong River Delta region of Vietnam is recognized as one of the most vulnerable to climate change due to flooding and seawater rise and therefore an increased burden of climate change-related diseases. Changes in temperature and precipitation are likely to alter the incidence and distribution of vector-borne diseases such as dengue fever. In this region, the peak of the dengue epidemic period is around July to September during the rainy season. It is believed that climate is an important factor for dengue transmission. This study aims to enhance the capacity of dengue prediction by the relationship of dengue incidences with climate and environmental variables for Mekong River Delta of Vietnam during 2005-2015. Mathematical models for vector-host infectious disease, including larva, mosquito, and human being were used to calculate the impacts of climate to the dengue transmission with incorporating geospatial data for model input. Monthly dengue incidence data were collected at provincial level. Precipitation data were extracted from satellite observations of GSMaP (Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation), land surface temperature and land cover data were from MODIS. The value of seasonal reproduction number was estimated to evaluate the potential, severity and persistence of dengue infection, while the final infected number was derived to check the outbreak of dengue. The result shows that the dengue infection depends on the seasonal variation of climate variables with the peak during the rainy season and predicted dengue incidence follows well with this dynamic for the whole studied region. However, the highest outbreak of 2007 dengue was not captured by the model reflecting nonlinear dependences of transmission on climate. Other possible effects will be discussed to address the limitation of the model. This suggested the need of considering of both climate variables and another variability across temporal and spatial scales.

Keywords: infectious disease, dengue, geospatial data, climate

Procedia PDF Downloads 364