Search results for: sub-humid warm weather

Authors: Abderrhamane Jarou, Dominique Sauter, Christophe Aubrun

Abstract:

Over the past decade, the growing demand for energy efficiency in buildings has attracted the attention of the control community. Failures in HVAC (heating, ventilation and air conditioning) systems in buildings can have a significant impact on the desired and expected energy performance of buildings and on the user's comfort as well. FTC is a recent technology area that studies the adaptation of control algorithms to faulty operating conditions of a system. The application of Fault-Tolerant Control (FTC) in HVAC systems has gained attention in the last two decades. The objective is to maintain the variations in system performance due to faults within an acceptable range with respect to the desired nominal behavior. This paper considers the so-called active approach, which is based on fault and identification scheme combined with a control reconfiguration algorithm that consists in determining a new set of control parameters so that the reconfigured performance is "as close as possible, "in some sense, to the nominal performance. Thermal models of buildings and their HVAC systems are described by non-linear (usually bi-linear) equations. Most of the works carried out so far in FDI (fault diagnosis and isolation) or FTC consider a linearized model of the studied system. However, this model is only valid in a reduced range of variation. This study presents a new fault diagnosis (FD) algorithm based on a bilinear observer for the detection and accurate estimation of the magnitude of the HVAC system failure. The main contribution of the proposed FD algorithm is that instead of using specific linearized models, the algorithm inherits the structure of the actual bilinear model of the building thermal dynamics. As an immediate consequence, the algorithm is applicable to a wide range of unpredictable operating conditions, i.e., weather dynamics, outdoor air temperature, zone occupancy profile. A bilinear fault detection observer is proposed for a bilinear system with unknown inputs. The residual vector in the observer design is decoupled from the unknown inputs and, under certain conditions, is made sensitive to all faults. Sufficient conditions are given for the existence of the observer and results are given for the explicit computation of observer design matrices. Dedicated observer schemes (DOS) are considered for sensor FDI while unknown input bilinear observers are considered for actuator or system components FDI. The proposed strategy for FTC works as follows: At a first level, FDI algorithms are implemented, making it also possible to estimate the magnitude of the fault. Once the fault is detected, the fault estimation is then used to feed the second level and reconfigure the control low so that that expected performances are recovered. This paper is organized as follows. A general structure for fault-tolerant control of buildings is first presented and the building model under consideration is introduced. Then, the observer-based design for Fault Diagnosis of bilinear systems is studied. The FTC approach is developed in Section IV. Finally, a simulation example is given in Section V to illustrate the proposed method.

Keywords: bilinear systems, fault diagnosis, fault-tolerant control, multi-zones building

Procedia PDF Downloads 171

Authors: Suneet Jagdev, Hrishabh Amrodia, Siddharth Menon, Abhishek Singh, Mansi Shivhare

Abstract:

Delhi, the National Capital, has undergone a surge in development rate, consequently engendering an unprecedented increase in population. Over the years the city has transformed into a car-centric infrastructure with high-speed corridors, flyovers and fast lanes. A considerable section of the population is hankering to rehabilitate to the good old cycling days, in order to contribute towards a green environment as well as to maintain their physical well-being. Furthermore, an extant section of Delhi’s population relies on cycles as their primary means of commuting in the city. Delhi has the highest number of cyclists and second highest number of pedestrians in the country. However, the tumultuous problems of unregulated traffic, inadequate space on roads, adverse weather conditions stifle them to opt for cycling. Lately, the city has been facing a conglomeration of problems such as haphazard traffic movement, clogged roads, congestion, pollution, accidents, safety issues, etc. In 1957, Delhi’s cyclists accounted for 36 per cent of trips which dropped down to a mere 4 per cent in 2008. The declining rate is due to unsafe roads and lack of proper cycle lanes. Now as the 10 percent of the city has cycle tracks. There is also a lack of public recreational activities in the city. These conundrums incite the need of a covered elevated cycling bridge track to facilitate the safe and smooth cycle commutation in the city which would also serve the purpose of an alternate urban public space over the cycle bridge reducing the cost as well as the space requirement for the same, developing a user–friendly transportation and public interaction system for urban areas in the city. Based on the archival research methodologies, the following research draws information and extracts records from the data accounts of the Delhi Metro Rail Corporation Ltd. as well as the Centre for Science and Environment, India. This research will predominantly focus on developing a prototype design for high speed elevated bicycle lanes based on different road typologies, which can be replicated with minor variations in similar situations, all across the major cities of our country including the proposed smart cities. Furthermore, how these cycling lanes could be utilized for the place making process accommodating cycle parking and renting spaces, public recreational spaces, food courts as well as convenient shopping facilities with appropriate optimization. How to preserve and increase the share of smooth and safe cycling commute cycling for the routine transportation of the urban community of the polluted capital which has been on a steady decline over the past few decades.

Keywords: bicycle track, prototype, road safety, urban spaces

Procedia PDF Downloads 159

Authors: Paula Marín, Mohammad Saffari, Alvaro de Gracia, Luisa F. Cabeza, Svetlana Ushak

Abstract:

Climate control represents an important issue when referring to energy consumption of buildings and associated expenses, both in installation or operation periods. The climate control of a building relies on several factors. Among them, localization, orientation, architectural elements, sources of energy used, are considered. In order to study the thermal behaviour of a building set up, the present study proposes the use of energy simulation program Energy Plus. In recent years, energy simulation programs have become important tools for evaluation of thermal/energy performance of buildings and facilities. Besides, the need to find new forms of passive conditioning in buildings for energy saving is a critical component. The use of phase change materials (PCMs) for heat storage applications has grown in importance due to its high efficiency. Therefore, the climatic conditions of Northern Chile: high solar radiation and extreme temperature fluctuations ranging from -10°C to 30°C (Calama city), low index of cloudy days during the year are appropriate to take advantage of solar energy and use passive systems in buildings. Also, the extensive mining activities in northern Chile encourage the use of large numbers of containers to harbour workers during shifts. These containers are constructed with lightweight construction systems, requiring heating during night and cooling during day, increasing the HVAC electricity consumption. The use of PCM can improve thermal comfort and reduce the energy consumption. The objective of this study was to evaluate the thermal and energy performance of containers of 2.5×2.5×2.5 m3, located in four cities of Chile: Antofagasta, Calama, Santiago, and Concepción. Lightweight envelopes, typically used in these building prototypes, were evaluated considering a container without PCM inclusion as the reference building and another container with PCM-enhanced envelopes as a test case, both of which have a door and a window in the same wall, orientated in two directions: North and South. To see the thermal response of these containers in different seasons, the simulations were performed considering a period of one year. The results show that higher energy savings for the four cities studied are obtained when the distribution of door and window in the container is in the north direction because of higher solar radiation incidence. The comparison of HVAC consumption and energy savings in % for north direction of door and window are summarised. Simulation results show that in the city of Antofagasta 47% of heating energy could be saved and in the cities of Calama and Concepción the biggest savings in terms of cooling could be achieved since PCM reduces almost all the cooling demand. Currently, based on simulation results, four containers have been constructed and sized with the same structural characteristics carried out in simulations, that are, containers with/without PCM, with door and window in one wall. Two of these containers will be placed in Antofagasta and two containers in a copper mine near to Calama, all of them will be monitored for a period of one year. The simulation results will be validated with experimental measurements and will be reported in the future.

Keywords: energy saving, lightweight construction, PCM, simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 281

Authors: Olga Hernán-Vega, Patricia López-Rodríguez, David Escot-Bocanegra, Raúl Fernández-Recio, Ignacio Bravo

Abstract:

Non-Cooperative Target Identification has become a key research domain in the Defense industry since it provides the ability to recognize targets at long distance and under any weather condition. High Resolution Range Profiles, one-dimensional radar images where the reflectivity of a target is projected onto the radar line of sight, are widely used for identification of flying targets. According to that, to face this problem, an approach to Non-Cooperative Target Identification based on the exploitation of Singular Value Decomposition to a matrix of range profiles is presented. Target Identification based on one-dimensional radar images compares a collection of profiles of a given target, namely test set, with the profiles included in a pre-loaded database, namely training set. The classification is improved by using Singular Value Decomposition since it allows to model each aircraft as a subspace and to accomplish recognition in a transformed domain where the main features are easier to extract hence, reducing unwanted information such as noise. Singular Value Decomposition permits to define a signal subspace which contain the highest percentage of the energy, and a noise subspace which will be discarded. This way, only the valuable information of each target is used in the recognition process. The identification algorithm is based on finding the target that minimizes the angle between subspaces and takes place in a transformed domain. Two metrics, F1 and F2, based on Singular Value Decomposition are accomplished in the identification process. In the case of F2, the angle is weighted, since the top vectors set the importance in the contribution to the formation of a target signal, on the contrary F1 simply shows the evolution of the unweighted angle. In order to have a wide database or radar signatures and evaluate the performance, range profiles are obtained through numerical simulation of seven civil aircraft at defined trajectories taken from an actual measurement. Taking into account the nature of the datasets, the main drawback of using simulated profiles instead of actual measured profiles is that the former implies an ideal identification scenario, since measured profiles suffer from noise, clutter and other unwanted information and simulated profiles don't. In this case, the test and training samples have similar nature and usually a similar high signal-to-noise ratio, so as to assess the feasibility of the approach, the addition of noise has been considered before the creation of the test set. The identification results applying the unweighted and weighted metrics are analysed for demonstrating which algorithm provides the best robustness against noise in an actual possible scenario. So as to confirm the validity of the methodology, identification experiments of profiles coming from electromagnetic simulations are conducted, revealing promising results. Considering the dissimilarities between the test and training sets when noise is added, the recognition performance has been improved when weighting is applied. Future experiments with larger sets are expected to be conducted with the aim of finally using actual profiles as test sets in a real hostile situation.

Keywords: HRRP, NCTI, simulated/synthetic database, SVD

Procedia PDF Downloads 354

Authors: Juan Du

Abstract:

Climate change is one of the most crucial issues of this era, with contentious debates on it among scholars. But there are sparse studies on climate change discourse in China. Including China in the study of climate change is essential for a sociological understanding of climate change. China -- as a developing country and an essential player in tackling climate change -- offers an ideal case for studying climate change for scholars moving beyond developed countries and enriching their understandings of climate change by including diverse social settings. This project contrasts the macro- and micro-level understandings of climate change in China, which helps scholars move beyond a focus on climate skepticism and denialism and enriches sociology of climate change knowledge. The macro-level understanding of climate change is obtained by analyzing over 4,000 newspaper articles from various official outlets in China. State-controlled newspapers play an essential role in transmitting essential and high-quality information and promoting broader public understanding of climate change and its anthropogenic nature. Thus, newspaper articles can be seen as tools employed by governments to mobilize the public in terms of supporting the development of a strategy shift from economy-growth to an ecological civilization. However, media is just one of the significant factors influencing an individual’s climate change concern. Extreme weather events, access to accurate scientific information, elite cues, and movement/countermovement advocacy influence an individual’s perceptions of climate change. Hence, there are differences in the ways that both newspaper articles and the public frame the issues. The online forum is an informative channel for scholars to understand the public’s opinion. The micro-level data comes from Zhihu, which is China’s equivalence of Quora. Users can propose, answer, and comment on questions. This project analyzes the questions related to climate change which have over 20 answers. By open-coding both the macro- and micro-level data, this project will depict the differences between ideology as presented in government-controlled newspapers and how people talk and act with respect to climate change in cyberspace, which may provide an idea about any existing disconnect in public behavior and their willingness to change daily activities to facilitate a greener society. The contemporary Yellow Vest protests in France illustrate that the large gap between governmental policies of climate change mitigation and the public’s understanding may lead to social movement activity and social instability. Effective environmental policy is impossible without the public’s support. Finding existing gaps in understanding may help policy-makers develop effective ways of framing climate change and obtain more supporters of climate change related policies. Overall, this qualitative project provides answers to the following research questions: 1) How do different state-controlled newspapers transmit their ideology on climate change to the public and in what ways? 2) How do individuals frame climate change online? 3) What are the differences between newspapers’ framing and individual’s framing?

Keywords: climate change, China, framing theory, media, public’s climate change concern

Procedia PDF Downloads 131

Authors: Same Noel Ngando, Yakub Abdulfatai Olatunji

Abstract:

Renewable energy micro-grids, such as those powered by solar or wind energy, are often intermittent in nature. This means that the amount of energy generated by these systems can vary depending on weather conditions or other factors, which can make it difficult to ensure a steady supply of power. To address this issue, energy storage systems have been developed to increase the reliability of renewable energy micro-grids. Battery systems have been the dominant energy storage technology for renewable energy micro-grids. Batteries can store large amounts of energy in a relatively small and compact package, making them easy to install and maintain in a micro-grid setting. Additionally, batteries can be quickly charged and discharged, allowing them to respond quickly to changes in energy demand. However, the process involved in recycling batteries is quite costly and difficult. An alternative energy storage system that is gaining popularity is hydrogen storage. Hydrogen is a versatile energy carrier that can be produced from renewable energy sources such as solar or wind. It can be stored in large quantities at low cost, making it suitable for long-distance mass storage. Unlike batteries, hydrogen does not degrade over time, so it can be stored for extended periods without the need for frequent maintenance or replacement, allowing it to be used as a backup power source when the micro-grid is not generating enough energy to meet demand. When hydrogen is needed, it can be converted back into electricity through a fuel cell. Energy consumption data is got from a particular residential area in Daegu, South Korea, and the data is processed and analyzed. From the analysis, the total energy demand is calculated, and different hybrid energy system configurations are designed using HOMER Pro (Hybrid Optimization for Multiple Energy Resources) and MATLAB software. A techno-economic and environmental comparison and life cycle assessment (LCA) of the different configurations using battery and hydrogen as storage systems are carried out. The various scenarios included PV-hydrogen-grid system, PV-hydrogen-grid-wind, PV-hydrogen-grid-biomass, PV-hydrogen-wind, PV-hydrogen-biomass, biomass-hydrogen, wind-hydrogen, PV-battery-grid-wind, PV- battery -grid-biomass, PV- battery -wind, PV- battery -biomass, and biomass- battery. From the analysis, the least cost system for the location was the PV-hydrogen-grid system, with a net present cost of about USD 9,529,161. Even though all scenarios were environmentally friendly, taking into account the recycling cost and pollution involved in battery systems, all systems with hydrogen as a storage system produced better results. In conclusion, hydrogen is becoming a very prominent energy storage solution for renewable energy micro-grids. It is easier to store compared with electric power, so it is suitable for long-distance mass storage. Hydrogen storage systems have several advantages over battery systems, including flexibility, long-term stability, and low environmental impact. The cost of hydrogen storage is still relatively high, but it is expected to decrease as more hydrogen production, and storage infrastructure is built. With the growing focus on renewable energy and the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, hydrogen is expected to play an increasingly important role in the energy storage landscape.

Keywords: renewable energy systems, microgrid, hydrogen production, energy storage systems

Procedia PDF Downloads 92

Authors: Piotr A. Kowalski, Kasper Sapala, Wiktor Warchalowski

Abstract:

PM10 is a suspended dust that primarily has a negative effect on the respiratory system. PM10 is responsible for attacks of coughing and wheezing, asthma or acute, violent bronchitis. Indirectly, PM10 also negatively affects the rest of the body, including increasing the risk of heart attack and stroke. Unfortunately, Poland is a country that cannot boast of good air quality, in particular, due to large PM concentration levels. Therefore, based on the dense network of Airly sensors, it was decided to deal with the problem of prediction of suspended particulate matter concentration. Due to the very complicated nature of this issue, the Machine Learning approach was used. For this purpose, Convolution Neural Network (CNN) neural networks have been adopted, these currently being the leading information processing methods in the field of computational intelligence. The aim of this research is to show the influence of particular CNN network parameters on the quality of the obtained forecast. The forecast itself is made on the basis of parameters measured by Airly sensors and is carried out for the subsequent day, hour after hour. The evaluation of learning process for the investigated models was mostly based upon the mean square error criterion; however, during the model validation, a number of other methods of quantitative evaluation were taken into account. The presented model of pollution prediction has been verified by way of real weather and air pollution data taken from the Airly sensor network. The dense and distributed network of Airly measurement devices enables access to current and archival data on air pollution, temperature, suspended particulate matter PM1.0, PM2.5, and PM10, CAQI levels, as well as atmospheric pressure and air humidity. In this investigation, PM2.5, and PM10, temperature and wind information, as well as external forecasts of temperature and wind for next 24h served as inputted data. Due to the specificity of the CNN type network, this data is transformed into tensors and then processed. This network consists of an input layer, an output layer, and many hidden layers. In the hidden layers, convolutional and pooling operations are performed. The output of this system is a vector containing 24 elements that contain prediction of PM10 concentration for the upcoming 24 hour period. Over 1000 models based on CNN methodology were tested during the study. During the research, several were selected out that give the best results, and then a comparison was made with the other models based on linear regression. The numerical tests carried out fully confirmed the positive properties of the presented method. These were carried out using real ‘big’ data. Models based on the CNN technique allow prediction of PM10 dust concentration with a much smaller mean square error than currently used methods based on linear regression. What's more, the use of neural networks increased Pearson's correlation coefficient (R²) by about 5 percent compared to the linear model. During the simulation, the R² coefficient was 0.92, 0.76, 0.75, 0.73, and 0.73 for 1st, 6th, 12th, 18th, and 24th hour of prediction respectively.

Keywords: air pollution prediction (forecasting), machine learning, regression task, convolution neural networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 148

Authors: Sunil Chandra, Himanshu Rawat, Vikas Gusain, Triparna Barman

Abstract:

Forest fires are a recurrent phenomenon in the Himalayan region owing to the presence of vulnerable forest types, topographical gradients, climatic weather conditions, and anthropogenic pressure. The present study focuses on the identification of forest fire-affected areas in a small part of the West Himalayan region using a differential normalized burnt ratio method and spectral unmixing methods. The study area has a rugged terrain with the presence of sub-tropical pine forest, montane temperate forest, and sub-alpine forest and scrub. The major reason for fires in this region is anthropogenic in nature, with the practice of human-induced fires for getting fresh leaves, scaring wild animals to protect agricultural crops, grazing practices within reserved forests, and igniting fires for cooking and other reasons. The fires caused by the above reasons affect a large area on the ground, necessitating its precise estimation for further management and policy making. In the present study, two approaches have been used for carrying out a burnt area analysis. The first approach followed for burnt area analysis uses a differenced normalized burnt ratio (dNBR) index approach that uses the burnt ratio values generated using the Short-Wave Infrared (SWIR) band and Near Infrared (NIR) bands of the Sentinel-2 image. The results of the dNBR have been compared with the outputs of the spectral mixing methods. It has been found that the dNBR is able to create good results in fire-affected areas having homogenous forest stratum and with slope degree <5 degrees. However, in a rugged terrain where the landscape is largely influenced by the topographical variations, vegetation types, tree density, the results may be largely influenced by the effects of topography, complexity in tree composition, fuel load composition, and soil moisture. Hence, such variations in the factors influencing burnt area assessment may not be effectively carried out using a dNBR approach which is commonly followed for burnt area assessment over a large area. Hence, another approach that has been attempted in the present study utilizes a spectral mixing method where the individual pixel is tested before assigning an information class to it. The method uses a neural network approach utilizing Sentinel-2 bands. The training and testing data are generated from the Sentinel-2 data and the national field inventory, which is further used for generating outputs using ML tools. The analysis of the results indicates that the fire-affected regions and their severity can be better estimated using spectral unmixing methods, which have the capability to resolve the noise in the data and can classify the individual pixel to the precise burnt/unburnt class.

Keywords: categorical data, log linear modeling, neural network, shifting cultivation

Procedia PDF Downloads 53

Authors: Eugene Aninagyei-Bonsu

Abstract:

Introduction: Agriculture has been a cornerstone of human civilization, ensuring food security and livelihoods for billions of people worldwide. In recent decades, rapid advancements in technology have revolutionized the agricultural sector, offering innovative solutions to enhance productivity, sustainability, and efficiency. This abstract summarizes key findings from a research study that explores the impacts of technology in modern agriculture and its implications for future food production systems. Methodologies: The research study employed a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative data analysis with qualitative interviews and surveys to gain a comprehensive understanding of the role of technology in agriculture. Data was collected from various stakeholders, including farmers, agricultural technicians, and industry experts, to capture diverse perspectives on the adoption and utilization of agricultural technologies. The study also utilized case studies and literature reviews to contextualize the findings within the broader agricultural landscape. Major Findings: The research findings reveal that technology plays a pivotal role in transforming traditional farming practices and driving innovation in agriculture. Advanced technologies such as precision agriculture, drone technology, genetic engineering, and smart irrigation systems have significantly improved crop yields, reduced environmental impact, and optimized resource utilization. Farmers who have embraced these technologies have reported increased productivity, enhanced profitability, and improved resilience to environmental challenges. Furthermore, the study highlights the importance of accessible and affordable technology solutions for smallholder farmers in developing countries. Mobile applications, sensor technologies, and digital platforms have enabled small-scale farmers to access market information, weather forecasts, and agricultural best practices, empowering them to make informed decisions and improve their livelihoods. The research emphasizes the need for targeted policies and investments to bridge the digital divide and promote equitable technology adoption in agriculture. Conclusion: In conclusion, this research underscores the transformative potential of technology in agriculture and its critical role in advancing sustainable food production systems. The findings suggest that harnessing technology can address key challenges facing the agricultural sector, including climate change, resource scarcity, and food insecurity. By embracing innovation and leveraging technology, farmers can enhance their productivity, profitability, and resilience in a rapidly evolving global food system. Moving forward, policymakers, researchers, and industry stakeholders must collaborate to facilitate the adoption of appropriate technologies, support capacity building, and promote sustainable agricultural practices for a more resilient and food-secure future.

Keywords: technology development in modern agriculture, the influence of information technology access in agriculture, analyzing agricultural technology development, analyzing of the frontier technology of agriculture loT

Procedia PDF Downloads 35

Authors: William Ho, Agus Wicaksana

Abstract:

Anecdotal evidence in the last decade shows that the occurrence of disruptive events and uncertainties in the supply chain is increasing. The coupling of these events with the nature of an increasingly complex and interdependent business environment leads to devastating impacts that quickly propagate within and across organizations. For example, the recent COVID-19 pandemic increased the global supply chain disruption frequency by at least 20% in 2020 and is projected to have an accumulative cost of $13.8 trillion by 2024. This crisis raises attention to organizational resilience to weather business uncertainty. However, the concept has been criticized for being vague and lacking a consistent definition, thus reducing the significance of the concept for practice and research. This study is intended to solve that issue by providing a comprehensive review of the conceptualization, measurement, and antecedents of operational resilience that have been discussed in the supply chain risk management literature (SCRM). We performed a Scholarly Network Analysis, combining citation-based and text-based approaches, on 252 articles published from 2000 to 2021 in top-tier journals based on three parameters: AJG ranking and ABS ranking, UT Dallas and FT50 list, and editorial board review. We utilized a hybrid scholarly network analysis by combining citation-based and text-based approaches to understand the conceptualization, measurement, and antecedents of operational resilience in the SCRM literature. Specifically, we employed a Bibliographic Coupling Analysis in the research cluster formation stage and a Co-words Analysis in the research cluster interpretation and analysis stage. Our analysis reveals three major research clusters of resilience research in the SCRM literature, namely (1) supply chain network design and optimization, (2) organizational capabilities, and (3) digital technologies. We portray the research process in the last two decades in terms of the exemplar studies, problems studied, commonly used approaches and theories, and solutions provided in each cluster. We then provide a conceptual framework on the conceptualization and antecedents of resilience based on studies in these clusters and highlight potential areas that need to be studied further. Finally, we leverage the concept of abnormal operating performance to propose a new measurement strategy for resilience. This measurement overcomes the limitation of most current measurements that are event-dependent and focus on the resistance or recovery stage - without capturing the growth stage. In conclusion, this study provides a robust literature review through a scholarly network analysis that increases the completeness and accuracy of research cluster identification and analysis to understand conceptualization, antecedents, and measurement of resilience. It also enables us to perform a comprehensive review of resilience research in SCRM literature by including research articles published during the pandemic and connects this development with a plethora of articles published in the last two decades. From the managerial perspective, this study provides practitioners with clarity on the conceptualization and critical success factors of firm resilience from the SCRM perspective.

Keywords: supply chain risk management, organizational resilience, scholarly network analysis, systematic literature review

Procedia PDF Downloads 73

Authors: Pia Ulvenblad, Henrik Barth, Jennie Cederholm BjöRklund, Maya Hoveskog, Per-Ola Ulvenblad

Abstract:

The importance of business model innovation (BMI) is widely recognized. This is also valid for firms in the agri-food industry, closely connected to global challenges. Worldwide food production will have to increase 70% by 2050 and the United Nations’ sustainable development goals prioritize research and innovation on food security and sustainable agriculture. The firms of the agri-food industry have opportunities to increase their competitive advantage through BMI. However, the process of BMI is complex and the implementation of new business models is associated with high degree of risk and failure. Thus, managers from all industries and scholars need to better understand how to address this complexity. Therefore, the research presented in this paper (i) explores different categories of barriers in research literature on business models in the agri-food industry, and (ii) illustrates categories of barriers with empirical cases. This study is addressing the rather limited understanding on barriers for BMI in the agri-food industry, through a systematic literature review (SLR) of 570 peer-reviewed journal articles that contained a combination of ‘BM’ or ‘BMI’ with agriculture-related and food-related terms (e.g. ‘agri-food sector’) published in the period 1990-2014. The study classifies the barriers in several categories and illustrates the identified barriers with ten empirical cases. Findings from the literature review show that barriers are mainly identified as outcomes. It can be assumed that a perceived barrier to growth can often be initially exaggerated or underestimated before being challenged by appropriate measures or courses of action. What may be considered by the public mind to be a barrier could in reality be very different from an actual barrier that needs to be challenged. One way of addressing barriers to growth is to define barriers according to their origin (internal/external) and nature (tangible/intangible). The framework encompasses barriers related to the firm (internal addressing in-house conditions) or to the industrial or national levels (external addressing environmental conditions). Tangible barriers can include asset shortages in the area of equipment or facilities, while human resources deficiencies or negative willingness towards growth are examples of intangible barriers. Our findings are consistent with previous research on barriers for BMI that has identified human factors barriers (individuals’ attitudes, histories, etc.); contextual barriers related to company and industry settings; and more abstract barriers (government regulations, value chain position, and weather). However, human factor barriers – and opportunities - related to family-owned businesses with idealistic values and attitudes and owning the real estate where the business is situated, are more frequent in the agri-food industry than other industries. This paper contributes by generating a classification of the barriers for BMI as well as illustrating them with empirical cases. We argue that internal barriers such as human factors barriers; values and attitudes are crucial to overcome in order to develop BMI. However, they can be as hard to overcome as for example institutional barriers such as governments’ regulations. Implications for research and practice are to focus on cognitive barriers and to develop the BMI capability of the owners and managers of agri-industry firms.

Keywords: agri-food, barriers, business model, innovation

Procedia PDF Downloads 232

Authors: Noorh Albadi, Salha Khayyat

Abstract:

People's moods and well-being are affected by their environment. The built environment impacts one's level of activity and health. In order to enhance users' physical health, sustainable design strategies have been developed for the physical environment to improve users' health. This study aimed to determine whether adult resorts in Saudi Arabia meet standards that ensure physical wellness to identify the needed requirements. It will be significant to the Ministry of Tourism, Sports, developers, and designers. Physical activity affects human health physically and mentally. In Saudi Arabia, the percentage of people who practiced sports in the Kingdom in 2019 was 20.04% - males and females older than 15. On the other hand, there is a lack of physical activity in Saudi Arabia; 90% of the Kingdom's population spends more than two hours sitting down without moving, which puts them at risk of contracting a non-communicable disease. The lack of physical activity and movement led to an increase in the rate of obesity among Saudis by 59% in 2020 and consequently could cause chronic diseases or death. The literature generally endorses that leading an active lifestyle improves physical health and affects mental health. Therefore, the United Nations has set 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs) to ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all ages. One of SDG3's targets is reducing mortality, which can be achieved by raising physical activity. In order to support sustainable design, many rating systems and strategies have been developed, such as WELL building, Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design, (LEED), Active design strategies, and RIPA plan of work. The survey was used to gather qualitative and quantitative information. It was designed based on the Active Design and WELL building theories targeting beach resorts visitors, professional and beginner athletes, and non-athletics to ask them about the beach resorts they visited in the Kingdom and whether they met the criteria of sports resorts and healthy and active design theories, in addition to gathering information about the preferences of physical activities in the Saudi society in terms of the type of activities that young people prefer, where they prefer to engage in and under any thermal and light conditions. The final section asks about the design of residential units in beach sports resorts, the data collected from 127 participants. Findings revealed that participants prefer outdoor activities in moderate weather and sunlight or the evening with moderate and sufficient lighting and that no beach sports resorts in the country are constructed to support sustainable design criteria for physical activity. Participants agreed that several measures that lessen tension at beach resorts and enhance movement and activity are needed by Saudi society. The study recommends designing resorts that meet the sustainable design criteria regarding physical activity in Saudi Arabia to increase physical activity to achieve psychological and physical benefits and avoid psychological and physical diseases related to physical inactivity.

Keywords: sustainable design, SDGs, active design strategies, well building, beach resort design

Procedia PDF Downloads 119

Authors: Deepak Loura

Abstract:

Climate change is considered one of the major environmental problems of the 21st century and a lasting change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods ranging from decades to millions of years. Agriculture and climate change are internally correlated with each other in various aspects, as the threat of varying global climate has greatly driven the attention of scientists, as these variations are imparting a negative impact on global crop production and compromising food security worldwide. The fast pace of development and industrialization and indiscriminate destruction of the natural environment, more so in the last century, have altered the concentration of atmospheric gases that lead to global warming. Carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), and nitrous oxide (NO) are important biogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) from the agricultural sector contributing to global warming and their concentration is increasing alarmingly. Agricultural productivity can be affected by climate change in 2 ways: first, directly, by affecting plant growth development and yield due to changes in rainfall/precipitation and temperature and/or CO₂ levels, and second, indirectly, there may be considerable impact on agricultural land use due to snow melt, availability of irrigation, frequency and intensity of inter- and intra-seasonal droughts and floods, soil organic matter transformations, soil erosion, distribution and frequency of infestation by insect pests, diseases or weeds, the decline in arable areas (due to submergence of coastal lands), and availability of energy. An increase in atmospheric CO₂ promotes the growth and productivity of C3 plants. On the other hand, an increase in temperature, can reduce crop duration, increase crop respiration rates, affect the equilibrium between crops and pests, hasten nutrient mineralization in soils, decrease fertilizer- use efficiencies, and increase evapotranspiration among others. All these could considerably affect crop yield in long run. Climate resilient agriculture consisting of adaptation, mitigation, and other agriculture practices can potentially enhance the capacity of the system to withstand climate-related disturbances by resisting damage and recovering quickly. Climate resilient agriculture turns the climate change threats that have to be tackled into new business opportunities for the sector in different regions and therefore provides a triple win: mitigation, adaptation, and economic growth. Improving the soil organic carbon stock of soil is integral to any strategy towards adapting to and mitigating the abrupt climate change, advancing food security, and improving the environment. Soil carbon sequestration is one of the major mitigation strategies to achieve climate-resilient agriculture. Climate-smart agriculture is the only way to lower the negative impact of climate variations on crop adaptation before it might affect global crop production drastically. To cope with these extreme changes, future development needs to make adjustments in technology, management practices, and legislation. Adaptation and mitigation are twin approaches to bringing resilience to climate change in agriculture.

Keywords: climate change, global warming, crop production, climate resilient agriculture

Procedia PDF Downloads 72

Authors: Mark R. Leipnik, Dahlia Durga, Linda Johnson-Bhola

Abstract:

Kaieteur is the most iconic National Park in the rainforest-clad nation of Guyana in South America. However, the magnificent 226-meter-high waterfall at its center is virtually inaccessible by surface transportation, and the occasional charter flights to the small airstrip in the park are too expensive for many tourists and residents. Thus, the largest waterfall in all of Amazonia, where the Potaro River plunges over a single free drop twice as high as Victoria Falls, remains preserved in splendid isolation inside a 57,000-hectare National Park established by the British in 1929, in the deepest recesses of a remote jungle canyon. Kaieteur Falls are largely unseen firsthand, but images of the falls are depicted on the Guyanese twenty dollar note, in every Guyanese tourist promotion, and on many items in the national capital of Georgetown. Georgetown is only 223-241 kilometers away from the falls. The lack of a single mileage figure demonstrates there is no single overland route. Any journey, except by air, involves changes of vehicles, a ferry ride, and a boat ride up a jungle river. It also entails hiking for many hours to view the falls. Surface access from Georgetown (or any city) is thus a 3-5 day-long adventure; even in the dry season, during the two wet seasons, travel is a particularly sticky proposition. This journey was made overland by the paper's co-author Dahlia Durga. This paper focuses on potential ways to improve overland tourist access to Kaieteur National Park from Georgetown. This is primarily a GIS-based analysis, using multiple criteria to determine the least cost means of creating all-weather road access to the area near the base of the falls while minimizing distance and elevation changes. Critically, it also involves minimizing the number of new bridges required to be built while utilizing the one existing ferry crossings of a major river. Cost estimates are based on data from road and bridge construction engineers operating currently in the interior of Guyana. The paper contains original maps generated with ArcGIS of the potential routes for such an overland connection, including the one deemed optimal. Other factors, such as the impact on endangered species habitats and Indigenous populations, are considered. This proposed infrastructure development is taking place at a time when Guyana is undergoing the largest boom in its history due to revenues from offshore oil and gas development. Thus, better access to the most important tourist attraction in the country is likely to happen eventually in some manner. But the questions of the most environmentally sustainable and least costly alternatives for such access remain. This paper addresses those questions and others related to access to this magnificent natural treasure and the tradeoffs such access will have on the preservation of the currently pristine natural environment of Kaieteur Falls.

Keywords: nature tourism, GIS, Amazonia, national parks

Procedia PDF Downloads 164

Authors: Jean Felix Tuyisingize

Abstract:

Speeding or inappropriate speed is a major problem worldwide, contributing to 10-15% of road crashes and 30% of fatal injury crashes. The consequences of speeding put the driver's life at risk and the lives of other road users like motorists, cyclists, and pedestrians. To control vehicle speeds, governments, and traffic authorities enforced speed regulations through speed cameras and speed section control, which monitor all vehicle speeds and detect plate numbers to levy penalties. However, speed limit violations are prevalent, even on motorways with speed cameras. The problem with speed cameras is that they alter driver behaviors, and their effect declines with increasing distance from the speed camera location. Drivers decelerate short distances before the camera and vigorously accelerate above the speed limit just after passing by the camera. The sudden decelerating near cameras causes the drivers to try to make up for lost time after passing it, and they do this by speeding up, resulting in a phenomenon known as the "Kangaroo jump" or "V-profile" around camera/ASSC areas. This study investigated the impact of speed enforcement devices, specifically Average Speed Section Control (ASSCs) and fixed cameras, on acceleration and deceleration events within their vicinity. The research employed advanced statistical and Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis on naturalistic driving data, to uncover speeding patterns near the speed enforcement systems. The study revealed a notable concentration of events within a 600-meter radius of enforcement devices, suggesting their influence on driver behaviors within a specific range. However, most of these events are of low severity, suggesting that drivers may not significantly alter their speed upon encountering these devices. This behavior could be attributed to several reasons, such as consistently maintaining safe speeds or using real-time in-vehicle intervention systems. The complexity of driver behavior is also highlighted, indicating the potential influence of factors like traffic density, road conditions, weather, time of day, and driver characteristics. Further, the study highlighted that high-severity events often occurred outside speed enforcement zones, particularly around intersections, indicating these as potential hotspots for drastic speed changes. These findings call for a broader perspective on traffic safety interventions beyond reliance on speed enforcement devices. However, the study acknowledges certain limitations, such as its reliance on a specific geographical focus, which may impact the broad applicability of the findings. Additionally, the severity of speed modification events was categorized into low, medium, and high, which could oversimplify the continuum of speed changes and potentially mask trends within each category. This research contributes valuable insights to traffic safety and driver behavior literature, illuminating the complexity of driver behavior and the potential influence of factors beyond the presence of speed enforcement devices. Future research directions may employ various categories of event severity. They may also explore the role of in-vehicle technologies, driver characteristics, and a broader set of environmental variables in driving behavior and traffic safety.

Keywords: acceleration, deceleration, speeding, inappropriate speed, speed enforcement cameras

Procedia PDF Downloads 32

Authors: Stefan W. Kienzle

Abstract:

The increasing number of occurrences of extreme weather and climate events have significant impacts on society and are the cause of continued and increasing loss of human and animal lives, loss or damage to property (houses, cars), and associated stresses to the public in coping with a changing climate. A climate index breaks down daily climate time series into meaningful derivatives, such as the annual number of frost days. Climate indices allow for the spatially consistent analysis of a wide range of climate-dependent variables, which enables the quantification and mapping of historical and future climate change across regions. As trends of phenomena such as the length of the growing season change differently in different hydro-climatological regions, mapping needs to be carried out at a high spatial resolution, such as the 10km by 10km Canadian Climate Grid, which has interpolated daily values from 1950 to 2017 for minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation. Climate indices form the basis for the analysis and comparison of means, extremes, trends, the quantification of changes, and their respective confidence levels. A total of 39 temperature indices and 16 precipitation indices were computed for the period 1951 to 2017 for the Province of Alberta. Temperature indices include the annual number of days with temperatures above or below certain threshold temperatures (0, +-10, +-20, +25, +30ºC), frost days, and timing of frost days, freeze-thaw days, growing or degree days, and energy demands for air conditioning and heating. Precipitation indices include daily and accumulated 3- and 5-day extremes, days with precipitation, period of days without precipitation, and snow and potential evapotranspiration. The rank-based nonparametric Mann-Kendall statistical test was used to determine the existence and significant levels of all associated trends. The slope of the trends was determined using the non-parametric Sen’s slope test. The Google mapping interface was developed to create the website albertaclimaterecords.com, from which beach of the 55 climate indices can be queried for any of the 6833 grid cells that make up Alberta. In addition to the climate indices, climate normals were calculated and mapped for four historical 30-year periods and one future period (1951-1980, 1961-1990, 1971-2000, 1981-2017, 2041-2070). While winters have warmed since the 1950s by between 4 - 5°C in the South and 6 - 7°C in the North, summers are showing the weakest warming during the same period, ranging from about 0.5 - 1.5°C. New agricultural opportunities exist in central regions where the number of heat units and growing degree days are increasing, and the number of frost days is decreasing. While the number of days below -20ºC has about halved across Alberta, the growing season has expanded by between two and five weeks since the 1950s. Interestingly, both the number of days with heat waves and cold spells have doubled to four-folded during the same period. This research demonstrates the enormous potential of using climate indices at the best regional spatial resolution possible to enable society to understand historical and future climate changes of their region.

Keywords: climate change, climate indices, habitat risk, regional, mapping, extremes

Procedia PDF Downloads 92

Authors: Kimberley Adamek

Abstract:

According to the Council on Tall Buildings, there has been a rapid increase in the construction of tall or “megatall” buildings over the past two decades. Simultaneously, the New England Journal of Medicine has reported that there has been a steady increase in climate related natural disasters since the 1970s; the eastern expansion of the USA's infamous Tornado Alley being just one of many current issues. In the future, this could mean that tall buildings, which already guide high speed winds down to pedestrian levels would have to withstand stronger forces and protect pedestrians in more extreme ways. Although many projects are required to be verified within wind tunnels and a handful of cities such as San Francisco have included wind testing within building code standards, there are still many examples where wind is only considered for basic loading. This typically results in and an increase of structural expense and unwanted mitigation strategies that are proposed late within a project. When building cities, architects rarely consider how each building alters the invisible patterns of wind and how these alterations effect other areas in different ways later on. It is not until these forces move, overpower and even destroy cities that people take notice. For example, towers have caused winds to blow objects into people (Walkie-Talkie Tower, Leeds, England), cause building parts to vibrate and produce loud humming noises (Beetham Tower, Manchester), caused wind tunnels in streets as well as many other issues. Alternatively, there exist towers which have used their form to naturally draw in air and ventilate entire facilities in order to eliminate the needs for costly HVAC systems (The Met, Thailand) and used their form to increase wind speeds to generate electricity (Bahrain Tower, Dubai). Wind and weather exist and effect all parts of the world in ways such as: Science, health, war, infrastructure, catastrophes, tourism, shopping, media and materials. Working in partnership with a leading wind engineering company RWDI, a series of tests, images and animations documenting discovered interactions of different building forms with wind will be collected to emphasize the possibilities for wind use to architects. A site within San Francisco (due to its increasing tower development, consistently wind conditions and existing strict wind comfort criteria) will host a final design. Iterations of this design will be tested within the wind tunnel and computational fluid dynamic systems which will expose, utilize and manipulate wind flows to create new forms, technologies and experiences. Ultimately, this thesis aims to question the amount which the environment is allowed to permeate building enclosures, uncover new programmatic possibilities for wind in buildings, and push the boundaries of working with the wind to ensure the development and safety of future cities. This investigation will improve and expand upon the traditional understanding of wind in order to give architects, wind engineers as well as the general public the ability to broaden their scope in order to productively utilize this living phenomenon that everyone constantly feels but cannot see.

Keywords: wind engineering, climate, visualization, architectural aerodynamics

Procedia PDF Downloads 358

Authors: Shanaka Gunasekara, Maleen Jayasuriya, Nalin Harischandra, Lilantha Samaranayake, Gamini Dissanayake

Abstract:

One serious facet of the worsening Human-Elephant conflict (HEC) in nations such as Sri Lanka involves elephant-train collisions. Endangered Asian elephants are maimed or killed during such accidents, which also often result in orphaned or disabled elephants, contributing to the phenomenon of lone elephants. These lone elephants are found to be more likely to attack villages and showcase aggressive behaviour, which further exacerbates the overall HEC. Furthermore, Railway Services incur significant financial losses and disruptions to services annually due to such accidents. Most elephant-train collisions occur due to a lack of adequate reaction time. This is due to the significant stopping distance requirements of trains, as the full braking force needs to be avoided to minimise the risk of derailment. Thus, poor driver visibility at sharp turns, nighttime operation, and poor weather conditions are often contributing factors to this problem. Initial investigations also indicate that most collisions occur in localised “hotspots” where elephant pathways/corridors intersect with railway tracks that border grazing land and watering holes. Taking these factors into consideration, this work proposes the leveraging of recent developments in Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) technology to detect elephants using an RGB/infrared capable camera around known hotspots along the railway track. The CNN was trained using a curated dataset of elephants collected on field visits to elephant sanctuaries and wildlife parks in Sri Lanka. With this vision-based detection system at its core, a prototype unit of an early warning system was designed and tested. This weatherised and waterproofed unit consists of a Reolink security camera which provides a wide field of view and range, an Nvidia Jetson Xavier computing unit, a rechargeable battery, and a solar panel for self-sufficient functioning. The prototype unit was designed to be a low-cost, low-power and small footprint device that can be mounted on infrastructures such as poles or trees. If an elephant is detected, an early warning message is communicated to the train driver using the GSM network. A mobile app for this purpose was also designed to ensure that the warning is clearly communicated. A centralized control station manages and communicates all information through the train station network to ensure coordination among important stakeholders. Initial results indicate that detection accuracy is sufficient under varying lighting situations, provided comprehensive training datasets that represent a wide range of challenging conditions are available. The overall hardware prototype was shown to be robust and reliable. We envision a network of such units may help contribute to reducing the problem of elephant-train collisions and has the potential to act as an important surveillance mechanism in dealing with the broader issue of human-elephant conflicts.

Keywords: computer vision, deep learning, human-elephant conflict, wildlife early warning technology

Procedia PDF Downloads 225

Authors: Panagiota Katsikouli, William Hamilton Byrne, Thomas Gammeltoft-Hansen, Tijs Slaats

Abstract:

An individual who demonstrates a well-founded fear of persecution or faces real risk of being subjected to torture is eligible for asylum. In Danish law, the exact legal thresholds reflect those established by international conventions, notably the 1951 Refugee Convention and the 1950 European Convention for Human Rights. These international treaties, however, remain largely silent when it comes to how states should assess asylum claims. As a result, national authorities are typically left to determine an individual’s legal eligibility on a narrow basis consisting of an oral testimony, which may itself be hampered by several factors, including imprecise language interpretation, insecurity or lacking trust towards the authorities among applicants. The leaky ground, on which authorities must assess their subjective perceptions of asylum applicants' credibility, questions whether, in all cases, adjudicators make the correct decision. Moreover, the subjective element in these assessments raises questions on whether individual asylum cases could be afflicted by implicit biases or stereotyping amongst adjudicators. In fact, recent studies have uncovered significant correlations between decision outcomes and the experience and gender of the assigned judge, as well as correlations between asylum outcomes and entirely external events such as weather and political elections. In this study, we analyze a publicly available dataset containing approximately 8,000 summaries of asylum cases, initially rejected, and re-tried by the Refugee Appeals Board (RAB) in Denmark. First, we look for variations in the recognition rates, with regards to a number of applicants’ features: their country of origin/nationality, their identified gender, their identified religion, their ethnicity, whether torture was mentioned in their case and if so, whether it was supported or not, and the year the applicant entered Denmark. In order to extract those features from the text summaries, as well as the final decision of the RAB, we applied natural language processing and regular expressions, adjusting for the Danish language. We observed interesting variations in recognition rates related to the applicants’ country of origin, ethnicity, year of entry and the support or not of torture claims, whenever those were made in the case. The appearance (or not) of significant variations in the recognition rates, does not necessarily imply (or not) bias in the decision-making progress. None of the considered features, with the exception maybe of the torture claims, should be decisive factors for an asylum seeker’s fate. We therefore investigate whether the decision can be predicted on the basis of these features, and consequently, whether biases are likely to exist in the decisionmaking progress. We employed a number of machine learning classifiers, and found that when using the applicant’s country of origin, religion, ethnicity and year of entry with a random forest classifier, or a decision tree, the prediction accuracy is as high as 82% and 85% respectively. tentially predictive properties with regards to the outcome of an asylum case. Our analysis and findings call for further investigation on the predictability of the outcome, on a larger dataset of 17,000 cases, which is undergoing.

Keywords: asylum adjudications, automated decision-making, machine learning, text mining

Procedia PDF Downloads 94

Authors: Saul Ngarava, Leocadia Zhou, Nomakhaya Monde

Abstract:

Water crises have the fourth most significant societal impact after weapons of mass destruction, climate change, and extreme weather conditions, ahead of natural disasters. Intricacies between women and water are central to achieving the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The majority of the 1.2 billion poor people worldwide, with two-thirds being women, and mostly located in Sub Sahara Africa (SSA) and South Asia, do not have access to safe and reliable sources of water. There exist gendered differences in water security based on the division of labour associating women with water. Globally, women and girls are responsible for water collection in 80% of the households which have no water on their premises. Women spend 16 million hours a day collecting water, while men and children spend 6 million and 4 million per day, respectively, which is time foregone in the pursuit of other livelihood activities. Due to their proximity and activities concerning water, women are vulnerable to water insecurity through exposures to water-borne diseases, fatigue from physically carrying water, and exposure to sexual and physical harassment, amongst others. Proximity to treated water and their wellbeing also has an effect on their sensitivity and adaptive capacity to water insecurity. The great distances, difficult terrain and heavy lifting expose women to vulnerabilities of water insecurity. However, few studies have quantified the vulnerabilities and burdens on women, with a few taking a phenomenological qualitative approach. Vulnerability studies have also been scanty in the water security realm, with most studies taking linear forms of either quantifying exposures, sensitivities or adaptive capacities in climate change studies. The current study argues for the need for a water insecurity vulnerability assessment, especially for women into research agendas as well as policy interventions, monitoring, and evaluation. The study sought to identify and provide pathways through which female-headed households were water insecure in South Africa, the 30th driest country in the world. This was through linking the drinking water decision as well as the vulnerability frameworks. Secondary data collected during the 2016 General Household Survey (GHS) was utilised, with a sample of 5928 female-headed households. Principal Component Analysis and Structural Equation Modelling were used to analyse the data. The results show dynamic relationships between water characteristics and water treatment. There were also associations between water access and wealth status of the female-headed households. Association was also found between water access and water treatment as well as between wealth status and water treatment. The study concludes that there are dynamic relationships in water insecurity (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity) for female-headed households in South Africa. The study recommends that a multi-prong approach is required in tackling exposures, sensitivities, and adaptive capacities to water insecurity. This should include capacitating and empowering women for wealth generation, improve access to water treatment equipment as well as prioritising the improvement of infrastructure that brings piped and safe water to female-headed households.

Keywords: gender, principal component analysis, structural equation modelling, vulnerability, water insecurity

Procedia PDF Downloads 120

Authors: Deepak Loura

Abstract:

The most contemporary method of producing horticulture crops both qualitatively and quantitatively is protected cultivation, or greenhouse cultivation, which has gained widespread acceptance in recent decades. Protected farming, commonly referred to as controlled environment agriculture (CEA), is extremely productive, land- and water-wise, as well as environmentally friendly. The technology entails growing horticulture crops in a controlled environment where variables such as temperature, humidity, light, soil, water, fertilizer, etc. are adjusted to achieve optimal output and enable a consistent supply of them even during the off-season. Over the past ten years, protected cultivation of high-value crops and cut flowers has demonstrated remarkable potential. More and more agricultural and horticultural crop production systems are moving to protected environments as a result of the growing demand for high-quality products by global markets. By covering the crop, it is possible to control the macro- and microenvironments, enhancing plant performance and allowing for longer production times, earlier harvests, and higher yields of higher quality. These shielding features alter the environment of the plant while also offering protection from wind, rain, and insects. Protected farming opens up hitherto unexplored opportunities in agriculture as the liberalised economy and improved agricultural technologies advance. Typically, the revenues from fruit, vegetable, and flower crops are 4 to 8 times higher than those from other crops. If any of these high-value crops are cultivated in protected environments like greenhouses, net houses, tunnels, etc., this profit can be multiplied. Vegetable and cut flower post-harvest losses are extremely high (20–0%), however sheltered growing techniques and year-round cropping can greatly minimize post-harvest losses and enhance yield by 5–10 times. Seasonality and weather have a big impact on the production of vegetables and flowers. The variety of their products results in significant price and quality changes for vegetables. For the application of current technology in crop production, achieving a balance between year-round availability of vegetables and flowers with minimal environmental impact and remaining competitive is a significant problem. The future of agriculture will be protected since population growth is reducing the amount of land that may be held. Protected agriculture is a particularly profitable endeavor for tiny landholdings. Small greenhouses, net houses, nurseries, and low tunnel greenhouses can all be built by farmers to increase their income. Protected agriculture is also aided by the rise in biotic and abiotic stress factors. As a result of the greater productivity levels, these technologies are not only opening up opportunities for producers with larger landholdings, but also for those with smaller holdings. Protected cultivation can be thought of as a kind of precise, forward-thinking, parallel agriculture that covers almost all aspects of farming and is rather subject to additional inspection for technical applicability to circumstances, farmer economics, and market economics.

Keywords: protected cultivation, horticulture, greenhouse, vegetable, controlled environment agriculture

Procedia PDF Downloads 75

Authors: Manta Nowbuth, Marie Anais Kimberley Therese

Abstract:

The vulnerability of coastal areas to storm surges stands as a critical global concern. The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events have increased the risks faced by communities living along the coastlines Worldwide. Small Island developing states (SIDS) stands out as being exceptionally vulnerable, coastal regions, ecosystems of human habitation and natural forces, bear witness to the frontlines of climate-induced challenges, and the intensification of storm surges underscores the urgent need for a comprehensive understanding of coastal vulnerability. With limited landmass, low-lying terrains, and resilience on coastal resources, SIDS face an amplified vulnerability to the consequences of storm surges, the delicate balance between human activities and environmental dynamics in these island nations increases the urgency of tailored strategies for assessing and mitigating coastal vulnerability. This research uses an approach to evaluate the vulnerability of coastal communities in Mauritius. The Satellite imagery analysis makes use of sentinel satellite imageries, modified normalised difference water index, classification techniques and the DSAS add on to quantify the extent of shoreline erosion or accumulation, providing a spatial perspective on coastal vulnerability. The coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) is applied by Gonitz et al Formula, this index considers factors such as coastal slope, sea level rise, mean significant wave height, and tidal range. Weighted assessments identify regions with varying levels of vulnerability, ranging from low to high. The study was carried out in a Village Located in the south of Mauritius, namely Rivière des Galets, with a population of about 500 people over an area of 60,000m². The Village of Rivière des Galets being located in the south, and the southern coast of Mauritius being exposed to the open Indian ocean, is vulnerable to swells, The swells generated by the South east trade winds can lead to large waves and rough sea conditions along the Southern Coastline which has an impact on the coastal activities, including fishing, tourism and coastal Infrastructures, hence, On the one hand, the results highlighted that from a stretch of 123km of coastline the linear rate regression for the 5 –year span varies from-24.1m/yr. to 8.2m/yr., the maximum rate of change in terms of eroded land is -24m/yr. and the maximum rate of accretion is 8.2m/yr. On the other hand, the coastal vulnerability index varies from 9.1 to 45.6 and it was categorised into low, moderate, high and very high risks zones. It has been observed that region which lacks protective barriers and are made of sandy beaches are categorised as high risks zone and hence it is imperative to high risk regions for immediate attention and intervention, as they will most likely be exposed to coastal hazards and impacts from climate change, which demands proactive measures for enhanced resilience and sustainable adaptation strategies.

Keywords: climate change, coastal vulnerability, disaster management, remote sensing, satellite imagery, storm surge

Procedia PDF Downloads 8

Authors: Małgorzata Golonka, Jadwiga Laska

Abstract:

Among self-healing materials, the most unexplored group are thermoplastic polymers. These polymers are used not only to produce packaging with a relatively short life but also to obtain coatings, insulation, casings, or parts of machines and devices. Due to its exceptional resistance to weather conditions, hydrophobicity, sufficient mechanical strength, and ease of extrusion, polyethylene is used in the production of polymer pipelines and as an insulating layer for steel pipelines. Polyethylene or PE coated steel pipelines can be used in difficult conditions such as underground or underwater installations. Both installation and use under such conditions are associated with high stresses and consequently the formation of microdamages in the structure of the material, loss of its integrity and final applicability. The ideal solution would be to include a self-healing system in the polymer material. In the presented study the behavior of resin-coated microcapsules in the extrusion process of low-density polyethylene was examined. Microcapsules are a convenient element of the repair system because they can be filled with appropriate reactive substances to ensure the repair process, but the main problem is their durability under processing conditions. Rapeseed oil, which has a relatively high boiling point of 240⁰C and low volatility, was used as the core material that simulates the reactive agents. The capsule shell, which is a key element responsible for its mechanical strength, was obtained by in situ polymerising urea-formaldehyde, melamine-urea-formaldehyde or melamine-formaldehyde resin on the surface of oil droplets dispersed in water. The strength of the capsules was compared based on the shell material, and in addition, microcapsules with single- and multilayer shells were obtained using different combinations of the chemical composition of the resins. For example, the first layer of appropriate tightness and stiffness was made of melamine-urea-formaldehyde resin, and the second layer was a melamine-formaldehyde reinforcing layer. The size, shape, distribution of capsule diameters and shell thickness were determined using digital optical microscopy and electron microscopy. The efficiency of encapsulation (i.e., the presence of rapeseed oil as the core) and the tightness of the shell were determined by FTIR spectroscopic examination. The mechanical strength and distribution of microcapsules in polyethylene were tested by extruding samples of crushed low-density polyethylene mixed with microcapsules in a ratio of 1 and 2.5% by weight. The extrusion process was carried out in a mini extruder at a temperature of 150⁰C. The capsules obtained had a diameter range of 70-200 µm. FTIR analysis confirmed the presence of rapeseed oil in both single- and multilayer shell microcapsules. Microscopic observations of cross sections of the extrudates confirmed the presence of both intact and cracked microcapsules. However, the melamine-formaldehyde resin shells showed higher processing strength compared to that of the melamine-urea-formaldehyde coating and the urea-formaldehyde coating. Capsules with a urea-formaldehyde shell work very well in resin coating systems and cement composites, i.e., in pressureless processing and moulding conditions. The addition of another layer of melamine-formaldehyde coating to both the melamine-urea-formaldehyde and melamine-formaldehyde resin layers significantly increased the number of microcapsules undamaged during the extrusion process. The properties of multilayer coatings were also determined and compared with each other using computer modelling.

Keywords: self-healing polymers, polyethylene, microcapsules, extrusion

Procedia PDF Downloads 28

Authors: Tanveer Ahmed Choudhury

Abstract:

Background: Bangladesh is one of the largest deltas in the world, with high population density and high rates of poverty and illiteracy. 80% of the country is on low-lying floodplains, leaving the country one of the most vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change: sea level rise, cyclones and storms, salinity intrusion, rising temperatures and heavy monsoon downpours. Such climatic events already limit Economic Development in the country. Although Bangladesh has had little responsibility in contributing to global climatic change, it is vulnerable to both its direct and indirect impacts. Real threats include reduced agricultural production, worsening food security, increased incidence of flooding and drought, spreading disease and an increased risk of conflict over scarce land and water resources. Currently, 8.3 million Bangladeshis live in cyclone high risk areas. However, by 2050 this is expected to grow to 20.3 million people, if proper adaptive actions are not taken. Under a high emissions scenario, an additional 7.6 million people will be exposed to very high salinity by 2050 compared to current levels. It is also projected that, an average of 7.2 million people will be affected by flooding due to sea level rise every year between 2070-2100 and If global emissions decrease rapidly and adaptation interventions are taken, the population affected by flooding could be limited to only about 14,000 people. To combat the climate change adverse effects, Bangladesh government has initiated many adaptive measures specially in infrastructure and renewable energy sector. Government is investing huge money and initiated many projects which have been proved very success full. Objectives: The objective of this paper is to describe some successful measures initiated by Bangladesh government in its effort to make the country a Climate Resilient. Methodology: Review of operation plan and activities of different relevant Ministries of Bangladesh government. Result: The following initiative projects, programs and activities are considered as best practices for Climate Change adaptation successes for Bangladesh: 1. The Infrastructure Development Company Limited (IDCOL); 2. Climate Change and Health Promotion Unit (CCHPU); 3. The Climate Change Trust Fund (CCTF); 4. Community Climate Change Project (CCCP); 5. Health, Population, Nutrition Sector Development Program (HPNSDP, 2011-2016)- "Climate Change and Environmental Issues"; 6. Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Bangladesh and WHO Collaboration; - National Adaptation Plan. -"Building adaptation to climate change in health in least developed countries through resilient WASH". 7. COP-21 “Climate and health country profile -2015 Bangladesh. Conclusion: Due to a vast coastline, low-lying land and abundance of rivers, Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to climate change. Having extensive experience with facing natural disasters, Bangladesh has developed a successful adaptation program, which led to a significant reduction in casualties from extreme weather events. In a low income country setting, Bangladesh had successfully adapted various projects and initiatives to combat future Climate Change challenges.

Keywords: climate, change, success, Bangladesh

Procedia PDF Downloads 248

Authors: Payam Mousavi, Andrew L. Stewart, Huiwen You, Aryeh F. G. Fayerman

Abstract:

We present a decision-support tool to assist an operator in the detection and tracking of a suspect vehicle traveling to an unknown target destination. Multiple data sources, such as traffic cameras, traffic information, weather, etc., are integrated and processed in real-time to infer a suspect’s intended destination chosen from a list of pre-determined high-value targets. Previously, we presented our work in the detection and tracking of vehicles using traffic and airborne cameras. Here, we focus on the fusion and processing of that information to predict a suspect’s behavior. The network of cameras is represented by a directional graph, where the edges correspond to direct road connections between the nodes and the edge weights are proportional to the average time it takes to travel from one node to another. For our experiments, we construct our graph based on the greater Los Angeles subset of the Caltrans’s “Performance Measurement System” (PeMS) dataset. We propose a Bayesian approach where a posterior probability for each target is continuously updated based on detections of the suspect in the live video feeds. Additionally, we introduce the concept of ‘soft interventions’, inspired by the field of Causal Inference. Soft interventions are herein defined as interventions that do not immediately interfere with the suspect’s movements; rather, a soft intervention may induce the suspect into making a new decision, ultimately making their intent more transparent. For example, a soft intervention could be temporarily closing a road a few blocks from the suspect’s current location, which may require the suspect to change their current course. The objective of these interventions is to gain the maximum amount of information about the suspect’s intent in the shortest possible time. Our system currently operates in a human-on-the-loop mode where at each step, a set of recommendations are presented to the operator to aid in decision-making. In principle, the system could operate autonomously, only prompting the operator for critical decisions, allowing the system to significantly scale up to larger areas and multiple suspects. Once the intended target is identified with sufficient confidence, the vehicle is reported to the authorities to take further action. Other recommendations include a selection of road closures, i.e., soft interventions, or to continue monitoring. We evaluate the performance of the proposed system using simulated scenarios where the suspect, starting at random locations, takes a noisy shortest path to their intended target. In all scenarios, the suspect’s intended target is unknown to our system. The decision thresholds are selected to maximize the chances of determining the suspect’s intended target in the minimum amount of time and with the smallest number of interventions. We conclude by discussing the limitations of our current approach to motivate a machine learning approach, based on reinforcement learning in order to relax some of the current limiting assumptions.

Keywords: autonomous surveillance, Bayesian reasoning, decision support, interventions, patterns of life, predictive analytics, predictive insights

Procedia PDF Downloads 114

Authors: Vidhya Venugopal, Jeremiah Chinnadurai, Rebekah A. I. Lucas, Tord Kjellstrom, Bruno Lemke

Abstract:

Introduction: The effects of climate change (CC) are largely discussed across the globe in terms of impacts on the environment and the general population, but the impacts on workers remain largely unexplored. The predicted rise in temperatures and heat events in the CC scenario have health implications on millions of workers in physically exerting jobs. The current health and productivity risks associated with heat exposures are characterized, future risk estimates as temperature rises and recommendations towards developing protective and preventive occupational health and safety guidelines for India are discussed. Methodology: Cross-sectional studies were conducted in several occupational sectors with workers engaged in moderate to heavy labor (n=1580). Quantitative data on heat exposures (WBGT°C), physiological heat strain indicators viz., Core temperature (CBT), Urine specific gravity (USG), Sweat rate (SwR) and qualitative data on heat-related health symptoms and productivity losses were collected. Data were analyzed for associations between heat exposures, health and productivity outcomes related to heat stress. Findings: Heat conditions exceeded the Threshold Limit Value (TLV) for safe manual work in 66% of the workers across several sectors (Avg.WBGT of 28.7°C±3.1°C). Widespread concerns about heat-related health outcomes (86%) were prevalent among workers exposed to high TLVs, with excessive sweating, fatigue and tiredness being commonly reported by workers. The heat stress indicators, core temperature (14%), Sweat rate (8%) and USG (9%), were above normal levels in the study population. A significant association was found between rise in Core Temperatures and WBGT exposures (p=0.000179) Elevated USG and SwR in the worker population indicate moderate dehydration, with potential risks of developing heat-related illnesses. In a steel industry with high heat exposures, an alarming 9% prevalence of kidney/urogenital anomalies was observed in a young workforce. Heat exposures above TLVs were associated with significantly increased odds of various adverse health outcomes (OR=2.43, 95% CI 1.88 to 3.13, p-value = <0.0001) and productivity losses (OR=1.79, 95% CI 1.32 to 2.4, p-value = 0.0002). Rough estimates for the number of workers who would be subjected to higher than TLV levels in the various RCP scenarios are RCP2.6 =79%, RCP4.5 & RCP6 = 81% and at RCP 8.5 = 85%. Rising temperatures due to CC has the capacity to further reduce already compromised health and productivity by subjecting the workers to increased heat exposures in the RCP scenarios are of concern for the country’s occupational health and economy. Conclusion: The findings of this study clearly identify that health protection from hot weather will become increasingly necessary in the Indian subcontinent and understanding the various adaptation techniques needs urgent attention. Further research with a multi-targeted approach to develop strategies for implementing interventions to protect the millions of workers is imperative. Approaches to include health aspects of climate change within sectoral and climate change specific policies should be encouraged, via a number of mechanisms, such as the “Health in All Policies” approach to avert adverse health and productivity consequences as climate change proceeds.

Keywords: heat stress, occupational health, productivity loss, heat strain, adverse health outcomes

Procedia PDF Downloads 323

Authors: Soheila Sadeghi

Abstract:

Accurate cost prediction is essential for effective project management and decision-making in the construction industry. This study aims to develop a cost prediction model for construction projects using Machine Learning techniques and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The research utilizes a comprehensive dataset containing project cost estimates, actual costs, resource details, and project performance metrics from a road reconstruction project. The methodology involves data preprocessing, feature selection, and the development of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model optimized using PSO. The study investigates the impact of various input features, including cost estimates, resource allocation, and project progress, on the accuracy of cost predictions. The performance of the optimized ANN model is evaluated using metrics such as Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and R-squared. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in predicting project costs, outperforming traditional benchmark models. The feature selection process identifies the most influential variables contributing to cost variations, providing valuable insights for project managers. However, this study has several limitations. Firstly, the model's performance may be influenced by the quality and quantity of the dataset used. A larger and more diverse dataset covering different types of construction projects would enhance the model's generalizability. Secondly, the study focuses on a specific optimization technique (PSO) and a single Machine Learning algorithm (ANN). Exploring other optimization methods and comparing the performance of various ML algorithms could provide a more comprehensive understanding of the cost prediction problem. Future research should focus on several key areas. Firstly, expanding the dataset to include a wider range of construction projects, such as residential buildings, commercial complexes, and infrastructure projects, would improve the model's applicability. Secondly, investigating the integration of additional data sources, such as economic indicators, weather data, and supplier information, could enhance the predictive power of the model. Thirdly, exploring the potential of ensemble learning techniques, which combine multiple ML algorithms, may further improve cost prediction accuracy. Additionally, developing user-friendly interfaces and tools to facilitate the adoption of the proposed cost prediction model in real-world construction projects would be a valuable contribution to the industry. The findings of this study have significant implications for construction project management, enabling proactive cost estimation, resource allocation, budget planning, and risk assessment, ultimately leading to improved project performance and cost control. This research contributes to the advancement of cost prediction techniques in the construction industry and highlights the potential of Machine Learning and PSO in addressing this critical challenge. However, further research is needed to address the limitations and explore the identified future research directions to fully realize the potential of ML-based cost prediction models in the construction domain.

Keywords: cost prediction, construction projects, machine learning, artificial neural networks, particle swarm optimization, project management, feature selection, road reconstruction

Procedia PDF Downloads 57

Authors: Juan A. Arzate, Funda C. Ertem, M. Nicolas Cruz-Bournazou, Peter Neubauer, Stefan Junne

Abstract:

— One of the biggest challenges the world faces today is global warming that is caused by greenhouse gases (GHGs) coming from the combustion of fossil fuels for energy generation. In order to mitigate climate change, the European Union has committed to reducing GHG emissions to 80–95% below the level of the 1990s by the year 2050. Renewable technologies are vital to diminish energy-related GHG emissions. Since water and biomass are limited resources, the largest contributions to renewable energy (RE) systems will have to come from wind and solar power. Nevertheless, high proportions of fluctuating RE will present a number of challenges, especially regarding the need to balance the variable energy demand with the weather dependent fluctuation of energy supply. Therefore, biogas plants in this content would play an important role, since they are easily adaptable. Feedstock availability varies locally or seasonally; however there is a lack of knowledge in how biogas plants should be operated in a stable manner by local feedstock. This problem may be prevented through suitable control strategies. Such strategies require the development of convenient mathematical models, which fairly describe the main processes. Modelling allows us to predict the system behavior of biogas plants when different feedstocks are used with different loading rates. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a technique for analyzing several sides from evolution of a product till its disposal in an environmental point of view. It is highly recommend to use as a decision making tool. In order to achieve suitable strategies, the combination of a flexible energy generation provided by biogas plants, a secure production process and the maximization of the environmental benefits can be obtained by the combination of process modelling and LCA approaches. For this reason, this study focuses on the biogas plant which flexibly generates required energy from the co-digestion of maize, grass and cattle manure, while emitting the lowest amount of GHG´s. To achieve this goal AMOCO model was combined with LCA. The program was structured in Matlab to simulate any biogas process based on the AMOCO model and combined with the equations necessary to obtain climate change, acidification and eutrophication potentials of the whole production system based on ReCiPe midpoint v.1.06 methodology. Developed simulation was optimized based on real data from operating biogas plants and existing literature research. The results prove that AMOCO model can successfully imitate the system behavior of biogas plants and the necessary time required for the process to adapt in order to generate demanded energy from available feedstock. Combination with LCA approach provided opportunity to keep the resulting emissions from operation at the lowest possible level. This would allow for a prediction of the process, when the feedstock utilization supports the establishment of closed material circles within a smart bio-production grid – under the constraint of minimal drawbacks for the environment and maximal sustainability.

Keywords: AMOCO model, GHG emissions, life cycle assessment, modelling

Procedia PDF Downloads 188

Authors: Festus Okotie

Abstract:

Nigeria is the giant of Africa with great and diverse transport potentials yet to be fully tapped into and explored.it is the most populated nation in Africa with nearly 200 million people, the sixth largest oil producer overall and largest oil producer in Africa with proven oil and gas reserves of 37 billion barrels and 192 trillion cubic feet, over 300 square kilometers of arable land and significant deposits of largely untapped minerals. A world bank indicator which measures trading across border ranked Nigeria at 183 out of 185 countries in 2017 and although different governments in the past made efforts through different interventions such as 2007 ports reforms led by Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, a former minister of Finance and world bank managing director also attempted to resolve some of the challenges such as infrastructure shortcomings, policy and regulatory inconsistencies, overlapping functions and duplicated roles among the different MDA’S. It is one of the fundamental structures smart nations and cities are using to improve the living conditions of its citizens and achieving sustainability. Examples of some of its benefits includes tracking high pedestrian areas, traffic patterns, railway stations, planning and scheduling bus times, it also enhances interoperability, creates alerts of transport situation and has swift capacity to share information among the different platforms and transport modes. It also offers a comprehensive approach to risk management, putting emergency procedures and response capabilities in place, identifying dangers, including vandalism or violence, fare evasion, and medical emergencies. The Nigerian transport system is urgently in need of modern infrastructures such as ITS. Smart city transport technology helps cities to function productively, while improving services for businesses and lives of is citizens. This technology has the ability to improve travel across traditional modes of transport, such as cars and buses, with immediate benefits for city dwellers and also helps in managing transport systems such as dangerous weather conditions, heavy traffic, and unsafe speeds which can result in accidents and loss of lives. Intelligent transportation systems help in traffic control such as permitting traffic lights to react to changing traffic patterns, instead of working on a fixed schedule in traffic. Intelligent transportation systems is very important in Nigeria’s transportation sector and so would require trained personnel to drive its efficiency to greater height because the purpose of introducing it is to add value and at the same time reduce motor vehicle miles and traffic congestion which is a major challenge around Tin can island and Apapa Port, a major transportation hub in Nigeria. The need for the federal government, state governments, houses of assembly to organise a national transportation workshop to begin the process of addressing the challenges in our nation’s transport sector is highly expedient and so bills that will facilitate the implementation of policies to promote intelligent transportation systems needs to be sponsored because of its potentials to create thousands of jobs for our citizens, provide farmers with better access to cities and a better living condition for Nigerians.

Keywords: intelligent, transport, system, Nigeria

Procedia PDF Downloads 115

Authors: Farzaneh Sasanpour, Saeed Amini Varaki

Abstract:

Resilience is an important goal for cities as urban areas face an increasing range of challenges in the 21st century; therefore, according to the characteristics of risks, adopting an approach that responds to sensitive conditions in the risk management process is the resilience of cities. In the meantime, most of the resilience assessments have dealt with natural hazards and less attention has been paid to pandemics.In the covid-19 pandemic, the country of Iran and especially the metropolis of Tehran, was not immune from the crisis caused by its effects and consequences and faced many challenges. One of the methods that can increase the resilience of Tehran's metropolis against possible crises in the future is future studies. This research is practical in terms of type. The general pattern of the research will be descriptive-analytical and from the point of view that it is trying to communicate between the components and provide urban resilience indicators with pandemic crises and explain the scenarios, its future studies method is exploratory. In order to extract and determine the key factors and driving forces effective on the resilience of Tehran's urban areas against pandemic crises (Covid-19), the method of structural analysis of mutual effects and Micmac software was used. Therefore, the primary factors and variables affecting the resilience of Tehran's urban areas were set in 5 main factors, including physical-infrastructural (transportation, spatial and physical organization, streets and roads, multi-purpose development) with 39 variables based on mutual effects analysis. Finally, key factors and variables in five main areas, including managerial-institutional with five variables; Technology (intelligence) with 3 variables; economic with 2 variables; socio-cultural with 3 variables; and physical infrastructure, were categorized with 7 variables. These factors and variables have been used as key factors and effective driving forces on the resilience of Tehran's urban areas against pandemic crises (Covid-19), in explaining and developing scenarios. In order to develop the scenarios for the resilience of Tehran's urban areas against pandemic crises (Covid-19), intuitive logic, scenario planning as one of the future research methods and the Global Business Network (GBN) model were used. Finally, four scenarios have been drawn and selected with a creative method using the metaphor of weather conditions, which is indicative of the general outline of the conditions of the metropolis of Tehran in that situation. Therefore, the scenarios of Tehran metropolis were obtained in the form of four scenarios: 1- solar scenario (optimal governance and management leading in smart technology) 2- cloud scenario (optimal governance and management following in intelligent technology) 3- dark scenario (optimal governance and management Unfavorable leader in intelligence technology) 4- Storm scenario (unfavorable governance and management of follower in intelligence technology). The solar scenario shows the best situation and the stormy scenario shows the worst situation for the Tehran metropolis. According to the findings obtained in this research, city managers can, in order to achieve a better tomorrow for the metropolis of Tehran, in all the factors and components of urban resilience against pandemic crises by using future research methods, a coherent picture with the long-term horizon of 2050, from the path Provide urban resilience movement and platforms for upgrading and increasing the capacity to deal with the crisis. To create the necessary platforms for the realization, development and evolution of the urban areas of Tehran in a way that guarantees long-term balance and stability in all dimensions and levels.

Keywords: future research, resilience, crisis, pandemic, covid-19, Tehran

Procedia PDF Downloads 66