Search results for: forecast uncertainty

Authors: Darren Edwards, Thomas Pinna

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Background: Interoception and heart rate variability have been found to predict outcomes of mental health and well-being. However, these have usually been investigated independently of one another. Objectives: This review aimed to explore the associations between interoception and heart rate variability (HRV) with emotion regulation (ER) and ER strategies within the existing literature and utilizing systematic review methodology. Methods: The process of article retrieval and selection followed the preferred reporting items for systematic review and meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Databases PsychINFO, Web of Science, PubMed, CINAHL, and MEDLINE were scanned for papers published. Preliminary inclusion and exclusion criteria were specified following the patient, intervention, comparison, and outcome (PICO) framework, whilst the checklist for critical appraisal and data extraction for systematic reviews of prediction modeling studies (CHARMS) framework was used to help formulate the research question, and to critically assess for bias in the identified full-length articles. Results: 237 studies were identified after initial database searches. Of these, eight studies were included in the final selection. Six studies explored the associations between HRV and ER, whilst three investigated the associations between interoception and ER (one of which was included in the HRV selection too). Overall, the results seem to show that greater HRV and interoception are associated with better ER. Specifically, high parasympathetic activity largely predicted the use of adaptive ER strategies such as reappraisal, and better acceptance of emotions. High interoception, instead, was predictive of effective down-regulation of negative emotions and handling of social uncertainty, there was no association with any specific ER strategy. Conclusions: Awareness of one’s own bodily feelings and vagal activation seem to be of central importance for the effective regulation of emotional responses.

Keywords: emotional regulation, vagal tone, interoception, chronic conditions, health and well-being, psychological flexibility

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Authors: Emil Iskandarov, Nazrin Agayeva

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Background: The effectiveness of hormone suppressive therapy (HST) in patients with nodular goiter (NG) is controversial. The aim of this study was to identify the impact of long-time HST on the Quality of Life (QoL) of patients with NG. Material and Methods: A retrospective analysis of 146 patients with NG showed treated with HST showed that in 38,4% of cases, HST was not effective. Nodules were increased in size and moreover, and new nodules were developed. Statistical procedure identified the predictors of resistant nodules: only one nodule in the left lobe; nodule size >17mm; calcinate within the nodule. 174 patients with NG, by whom predictors of resistant nodules were established, were informed about the results of previous research and surgery was suggested. Eighty-eight patients (the basic group) agreed with surgery and thyroidectomy was led. 86 patients (control group) ignored the suggestion and wished to receive HST. 3, 6 and 12 months after starting HST; control group patients were examined. HST was non-effective and patients, due to developing symptoms, were operated on. Patients in both groups were followed up 3, 6 and 12 months after thyroidectomy. Quality of Life was checked with the SF-36 survey form and compared between groups. The statistical analysis was performed with the non-parametric Mann–Whitney U test and with the Student t-test. P values ＜0.05 were considered statistically significant. Results and Discussions: QoL of patients in the basic and control groups 3 months after surgery was almost the same. However, Emotional problems severely interfered with patients in a control group with normal social activities with family, friends, and neighbors. The causes were related to the non-effective HST treatment before surgery: stress for forgetting to take drugs timely every day for a long time; blood tests for thyroid hormone level; needle biopsies of nodules for cancer screening and regular ultrasound investigations, which showed that nodules not diminished in size. Changing the treatment method after 1-year non-effective HST and delayed surgery negatively impacted patient's QoL. Social role functioning and mental health in the control group were also impaired and the difference between the results in the basic group was statistically significant (p <0.05). Conclusion: Predictors, such as only one nodule, the width of nodules more than 17mm, and the existence of calcinate within the nodule, are able to forecast the resistant nodules. HST in patients with resistant nodules is non-effective and surgery is suggested in patients with resistant nodules in the thyroid gland. Long time HST has a negative impact on the QoL patient after surgery.

Keywords: thyroid gland, nodule, hormone suppressive therapy, quality of life

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Authors: Niroshan K. Walgama Wellalage, Tieling Zhang, Richard Dwight

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State-based Markov deterioration models (SMDM) sometimes fail to find accurate transition probability matrix (TPM) values, and hence lead to invalid future condition prediction or incorrect average deterioration rates mainly due to drawbacks of existing nonlinear optimization-based algorithms and/or subjective function types used for regression analysis. Furthermore, a set of separate functions for each condition state with age cannot be directly derived by using Markov model for a given bridge element group, which however is of interest to industrial partners. This paper presents a new approach for generating Homogeneous SMDM model output, namely, the Modified Weibull approach, which consists of a set of appropriate functions to describe the percentage condition prediction of bridge elements in each state. These functions are combined with Bayesian approach and Metropolis Hasting Algorithm (MHA) based Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation technique for quantifying the uncertainty in model parameter estimates. In this study, factors contributing to rail bridge deterioration were identified. The inspection data for 1,000 Australian railway bridges over 15 years were reviewed and filtered accordingly based on the real operational experience. Network level deterioration model for a typical bridge element group was developed using the proposed Modified Weibull approach. The condition state predictions obtained from this method were validated using statistical hypothesis tests with a test data set. Results show that the proposed model is able to not only predict the conditions in network-level accurately but also capture the model uncertainties with given confidence interval.

Keywords: bridge deterioration modelling, modified weibull approach, MCMC, metropolis-hasting algorithm, bayesian approach, Markov deterioration models

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Authors: Xavier Lorang, Ahmadali Tahmasebimoradi, Chetra Mang, Sylvain Girard

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The additive manufacturing processes (e.g. selective laser melting) allow us to produce lattice structures which have less weight, higher impact absorption capacity, and better thermal exchange property compared to the classical structures. Unfortunately, geometric imperfections (defects) in the lattice structures are by-products results of the manufacturing process. These imperfections decrease the lifetime and the strength of the lattice structures and alternate their mechanical responses. The objective of the paper is to present a simulation strategy which allows us to take into account the effect of the geometric imperfections on the mechanical response of the lattice structure. In the first part, an identification method of geometric imperfection parameters of the lattice structure based on point clouds is presented. These point clouds are based on tomography measurements. The point clouds are fed into the platform LATANA (LATtice ANAlysis) developed by IRT-SystemX to characterize the geometric imperfections. This is done by projecting the point clouds of each microbeam along the beam axis onto a 2D surface. Then, by fitting an ellipse to the 2D projections of the points, the geometric imperfections are characterized by introducing three parameters of an ellipse; semi-major/minor axes and angle of rotation. With regard to the calculated parameters of the microbeam geometric imperfections, a statistical analysis is carried out to determine a probability density law based on a statistical hypothesis. The microbeam samples are randomly drawn from the density law and are used to generate lattice structures. In the second part, a finite element model for the lattice structure with the simplified geometric imperfections (ellipse parameters) is presented. This numerical model is used to simulate the generated lattice structures. The propagation of the uncertainties of geometric imperfections is shown through the distribution of the computed mechanical responses of the lattice structures.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, finite element model, geometric imperfections, lattice structures, propagation of uncertainty

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Authors: Laura Florez

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The construction industry is labour intensive, and the behaviour and management of workers have a direct impact on the performance of construction projects. One of the issues it currently faces is how to recruit and maintain its workers. Construction is known as an industry where workers face the problem of short employment durations, frequent layoffs, and periods of unemployment between jobs. These challenges not only creates pressures on the workers but also project managers have to constantly train new workers, face skills shortage, and uncertainty on the quality of the workers it will attract. To consider worker’s needs and project managers expectations, one practice that can be implemented is to schedule construction projects to maintain a stable workforce. This paper proposes a mixed integer programming (MIP) model to schedule projects with the objective of maximising social sustainability of construction projects, that is, maximise labour stability. Aside from the social objective, the model accounts for equipment and financial resources required by the projects during the construction phase. To illustrate how the solution strategy works, a construction programme comprised of ten projects is considered. The projects are scheduled to maximise labour stability while simultaneously minimising time and minimising cost. The tradeoff between the values in terms of time, cost, and labour stability allows project managers to consider their preferences and identify which solution best suits their needs. Additionally, the model determines the optimal starting times for each of the projects, working patterns for the workers, and labour costs. This model shows that construction projects can be scheduled to not only benefit the project manager, but also benefit current workers and help attract new workers to the industry. Due to its practicality, it can be a valuable tool to support decision making and assist construction stakeholders when developing schedules that include social sustainability factors.

Keywords: labour stability, mixed-integer programming (MIP), scheduling, workforce management

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Authors: Fatmah Almathkour

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Managing and controlling the construction supply chain (CSC) are very important components of effective construction project execution. The goals of managing the CSC are to reduce uncertainty and optimize the performance of a construction project by improving efficiency and reducing project costs. The heart of much SC activity is addressing risk, and the CSC is no different. The delivery and consumption of construction materials is highly variable due to the complexity of construction operations, rapidly changing demand for certain components, lead time variability from suppliers, transportation time variability, and disruptions at the job site. Current notions of managing and controlling CSC, involve focusing on one project at a time with a push-based material ordering system based on the initial construction schedule and, then, holding a tremendous amount of inventory. A two-stage methodology was proposed to coordinate the feed-forward control of advanced order placement with a supplier to a feedback local control in the form of adding the ability to transship materials between projects to improve efficiency and reduce costs. It focused on the single supplier integrated production and transshipment problem with multiple products. The methodology is used as a design tool for the CSC because it includes an external storage site not associated with one of the projects. The idea is to add this feature to a highly constrained environment to explore its effectiveness in buffering the impact of variability and maintaining project schedule at low cost. The methodology uses deterministic optimization models with objectives that minimizing the total cost of the CSC. To illustrate how this methodology can be used in practice and the types of information that can be gleaned, it is tested on a number of cases based on the real example of multiple construction projects in Kuwait.

Keywords: construction supply chain, inventory control supply chain, transshipment

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Authors: Liane Marcia Freitas Silva, Fernando Augusto Silva Marins, Maria Silene Alexandre Leite

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The adoption of a network structure, like in the supply chains, favors the increase of dependence between companies and, by consequence, their vulnerability. Environment disasters, sociopolitical and economical events, and the dynamics of supply chains elevate the uncertainty of their operation, favoring the occurrence of events that can generate break up in the operations and other undesired consequences. Thus, supply chains are exposed to various risks that can influence the profitability of companies involved, and there are several previous studies that have proposed risk classification models in order to categorize the risks and to manage them. The objective of this paper is to analyze and discuss thirty of these risk classification models by means a theoretical survey. The research method adopted for analyzing and discussion includes three phases: The identification of the types of risks proposed in each one of the thirty models, the grouping of them considering equivalent concepts associated to their definitions, and, the analysis of these risks groups, evaluating their similarities and differences. After these analyses, it was possible to conclude that, in fact, there is more than thirty risks types identified in the literature of Supply Chains, but some of them are identical despite of be used distinct terms to characterize them, because different criteria for risk classification are adopted by researchers. In short, it is observed that some types of risks are identified as risk source for supply chains, such as, demand risk, environmental risk and safety risk. On the other hand, other types of risks are identified by the consequences that they can generate for the supply chains, such as, the reputation risk, the asset depreciation risk and the competitive risk. These results are consequence of the disagreements between researchers on risk classification, mainly about what is risk event and about what is the consequence of risk occurrence. An additional study is in developing in order to clarify how the risks can be generated, and which are the characteristics of the components in a Supply Chain that leads to occurrence of risk.

Keywords: sisks classification, survey, supply chain management, theoretical discussion

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Authors: Ozoemelam Ikechukwu Lazarus, Nizamuddin B. Zainuddi, Abdul Kafi

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Numerous studies have been carried out on Green Logistics Management Practices (GLMPs) across the globe. The study on the practices and performance of green chain practices in Africa in particular has not gained enough scholarly attention. Again, the majority of supply chain sustainability research being conducted focus on environmental sustainability. Logistics has been a major cause of supply chain resource waste and environmental damage. Many sectors of the economy that engage in logistical operations significantly rely on vehicles, which emit pollutants into the environment. Due to urbanization and industrialization, the logistical operations of manufacturing companies represent a serious hazard to the society and human life, making the sector one of the fastest expanding in the world today. Logistics companies are faced with numerous difficulties when attempting to implement logistics practices along their supply chains. In Nigeria, manufacturing companies aspire to implement reverse logistics in response to stakeholders’ requirements to reduce negative environmental consequences. However, implementing this is impeded by a criteria framework, and necessitates the careful analysis of how such criteria interact with each other in the presence of uncertainty. This study integrates most of the green logistics management practices (GLMPs) into the Nigerian firms to improve generalizability, and credibility. It examines the effect of Green Logistics Management Practices on environmental performance, social performance, market performance, and financial performance in the logistics industries. It seeks to identify the critical success factors in order to develop a model that incorporates different factors from the perspectives of the technology, organization, human and environment to inform the adoption and use of technologies for logistics supply chain social sustainability in Nigeria. It uses exploratory research approach to collect and analyse the data.

Keywords: logistics, management, sustainability, environment, operations

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Authors: Abdelrhman Elagez, Rolla Monib

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This empirical study investigates the observed risks associated with adopting Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies in the construction industry and proposes potential mitigation strategies. While AI has transformed several industries, the construction industry is slowly adopting advanced technologies like AI, introducing new risks that lack critical analysis in the current literature. A comprehensive literature review identified a research gap, highlighting the lack of critical analysis of risks and the need for a framework to measure and mitigate the risks of AI implementation in the construction industry. Consequently, an online survey was conducted with 24 project managers and construction professionals, possessing experience ranging from 1 to 30 years (with an average of 6.38 years), to gather industry perspectives and concerns relating to AI integration. The survey results yielded several significant findings. Firstly, respondents exhibited a moderate level of familiarity (66.67%) with AI technologies, while the industry's readiness for AI deployment and current usage rates remained low at 2.72 out of 5. Secondly, the top-ranked barriers to AI adoption were identified as lack of awareness, insufficient knowledge and skills, data quality concerns, high implementation costs, absence of prior case studies, and the uncertainty of outcomes. Thirdly, the most significant risks associated with AI use in construction were perceived to be a lack of human control (decision-making), accountability, algorithm bias, data security/privacy, and lack of legislation and regulations. Additionally, the participants acknowledged the value of factors such as education, training, organizational support, and communication in facilitating AI integration within the industry. These findings emphasize the necessity for tailored risk assessment frameworks, guidelines, and governance principles to address the identified risks and promote the responsible adoption of AI technologies in the construction sector.

Keywords: risk management, construction, artificial intelligence, technology

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Authors: Amy Yee Kai Wan

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The arrival of a new baby to first-time parents is an exciting and joyous occasion, yet, the daunting task of raising the baby and the uncertainty of how it will affect the lives of the couple present a great challenge to them. This study examines the causes of conflicts and needs of the new parents through a qualitative research of five pairs of new parents in Hong Kong. Semi-structured in-depth qualitative interviews were conducted to explore the changes babies brought to their marriages, sources of support they received and found important and assistance they felt would help with their transition to parenthood. Thematic analysis was used to analyze the commonalities and differences between the five couples’ subjective experiences. Narrative analysis was used to compare the experiences of two parents who are the under-functioning parent of the couple, to study the different strategies they employed in response to the over-functioning parent and to analyze how the marital relationships were affected. Four main themes emerged from the study: 1) Change and adjustment in marital relationship, 2) parents’ level of involvement, 3) support in childcaring, and 4) challenges faced by the parents. Results from the study indicated that father involvement in childcaring is an important element in mother’s marital satisfaction Father’s marital satisfaction is dependent upon the mother – her satisfaction with father involvement, which affects the mother’s marital satisfaction. Marital convergence and co-parenting alliance acted as moderators for marital satisfaction. Implications from the study include: i) offering programmes that improve couple relationship and enhance parenting efficacy in tandem to improve overall marital satisfaction, and ii) offering prenatal counselling services or provide education to new parents from prenatal to postnatal period that can help couples reduce discrepancies between expectations and realities of their marital relationship and parenting responsibilities after their baby is born.

Keywords: co-parenting alliance, father involvement, marital convergence, maternal gatekeeping, new parents, transition to parenthood

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Authors: Gulden Aykinbaeva, Assem Umirzakova, Assel Makhadiyeva

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The problem of studying of young married couples in connection with a change of social institute of a family and marriage is represented very actual for family consultation, considering a family role in the development of modern society. Results of numerous researchs say that one of difficult in formation and stabilization of a matrimony is the period of a young family. This period is characterized by various processes of integration, adaptation and emotional compatibility of spouses. The young family in it the period endures the first standard crisis which postpones a print for the further development of the family scenario. Emergence new, earlier not existing, systems of values render a huge value on the process of formation of a young family and each of spouses separately. Possibly to solve the set family tasks at the development of the uniform system of the family relations in which socially mature persons capable to consider a family as the creativity of each other act as subjects. Due to the research objective in work the following techniques were used: a questionnaire of satisfaction with V. V. Stolin's marriage and A. N. Volkova's technique directed on detection of coherence of family values and role installations in a married couple, and also content – the analysis. Development of an internal basis of a family on mutual clearing of values is important during the work with married couples. 'The mature view' of the partner in the marriage union provides coherence between the expected and real behavior of the partner that is important for the realization of the purposes of adaptation in a family. For research of communication of the data obtained by means of A. N. Volkova's techniques, V. V. Stolina and content – the analysis, the correlation analysis, with the application of the criterion of Spirmen was used. The analysis of results of the conducted research allowed us to determine the number of consistent patterns: 1. Nature of change of satisfaction with marriage at spouses testifies that the matrimonial relations undergo high-quality changes at different stages of formation of a young family. 2. The matrimonial relations in the course of their development, formation and functioning in young marriage undergo considerable changes on psychological, social and psychological and insignificant — at the psychophysiological and sociocultural levels. The material received by us allows to plan ways of further detailed researches of the development of the matrimonial relations not only in the young marriage but also at further stages of development of a matrimony. We believe that the results received in this research can be almost applied at creation of algorithms of selection of marriage partners, at diagnostics of character and the maintenance of matrimonial disharmonies, at the forecast of stability of marriage and a family.

Keywords: married couples, formation of the young family, psychological consultation, matrimony

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Authors: Daphne Fietz

Abstract:

This paper builds on a reflection on an autobiographical experience of uncanniness during fieldwork in the white Afrikaner settlement Orania in South Africa. Drawing on Kristeva’s theory of abjection to establish a theory of Whiteness which is based on boundary threats, it is argued that the uncanny experience as the emergence of the abject points to a moment of crisis of the author’s Whiteness. The emanating abject directs the author to her closeness or convergence with Orania's inhabitants, that is a reciprocity based on mutual Whiteness. The experienced confluence appeals to the author’s White complicity to racism. With recourse to Butler’s theory of subjectivation, the abject, White complicity, inhabits both the outside of a discourse on racism, and of the 'self', as 'I' establish myself in relation to discourse. In this view, the qualities of the experienced abject are linked to the abject of discourse on racism, or, in other words, its frames of intelligibility. It then becomes clear, that discourse on (overt) racism functions as a necessary counter-image through which White morality is established instead of questioned, because here, by White reasoning, the abject of complicity to racism is successfully repressed, curbed, as completely impossible in the binary construction. Hence, such discourse endangers a preservation of racism in its pre-discursive and structural forms as long as its critique does not encompass its own location and performance in discourse. Discourse on overt racism is indispensable to White ignorance as it covers underlying racism and pre-empts further critique. This understanding directs us towards a form of critique which does necessitate self-reflection, uncertainty, and vigilance, which will be referred to as a discourse of relationality. Such a discourse diverges from the presumption of a detached author as a point of reference, and instead departs from attachment, dependence, mutuality and embraces the visceral as a resource of knowledge of relationality. A discourse of relationality points to another possibility of White engagement with Whiteness and racism and further promotes a conception of responsibility, which allows for and highlights dispossession and relationality in contrast to single agency and guilt.

Keywords: abjection, discourse, relationality, the visceral, whiteness

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Authors: Mohammadreza Salek Faramarzi, Touraj Taghikhany

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In this paper, seismic fragility assessment of a recently developed hybrid structural system, known as the strongback system (SBS) is investigated. In this system, to mitigate the occurrence of the soft-story mechanism and improve the distribution of story drifts over the height of the structure, an elastic vertical truss is formed. The strengthened members of the braced span are designed to remain substantially elastic during levels of excitation where soft-story mechanisms are likely to occur and impose a nearly uniform story drift distribution. Due to the distinctive characteristics of near-field ground motions, it seems to be necessary to study the effect of these records on seismic performance of the SBS. To this end, a set of 56 near-field ground motion records suggested by FEMA P695 methodology is used. For fragility assessment, nonlinear dynamic analyses are carried out in OpenSEES based on the recommended procedure in HAZUS technical manual. Four damage states including slight, moderate, extensive, and complete damage (collapse) are considered. To evaluate each damage state, inter-story drift ratio and floor acceleration are implemented as engineering demand parameters. Further, to extend the evaluation of the collapse state of the system, a different collapse criterion suggested in FEMA P695 is applied. It is concluded that SBS can significantly increase the collapse capacity and consequently decrease the collapse risk of the structure during its life time. Comparing the observing mean annual frequency (MAF) of exceedance of each damage state against the allowable values presented in performance-based design methods, it is found that using the elastic vertical truss, improves the structural response effectively.

Keywords: IDA, near-fault, probabilistic performance assessment, seismic fragility, strongback system, uncertainty

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Authors: Dhruvit S. Berawala, Jann R. Ursin, Obrad Slijepcevic

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Shale gas is one of the most rapidly growing forms of natural gas. Unconventional natural gas deposits are difficult to characterize overall, but in general are often lower in resource concentration and dispersed over large areas. Moreover, gas is densely packed into the matrix through adsorption which accounts for large volume of gas reserves. Gas production from tight shale deposits are made possible by extensive and deep well fracturing which contacts large fractions of the formation. The conventional reservoir modelling and production forecasting methods, which rely on fluid-flow processes dominated by viscous forces, have proved to be very pessimistic and inaccurate. This paper presents a new approach to forecast shale gas production by detailed modeling of gas desorption, diffusion and non-linear flow mechanisms in combination with statistical representation of these processes. The representation of the model involves a cube as a porous media where free gas is present and a sphere (SiC: Sphere in Cube model) inside it where gas is adsorbed on to the kerogen or organic matter. Further, the sphere is considered consisting of many layers of adsorbed gas in an onion-like structure. With pressure decline, the gas desorbs first from the outer most layer of sphere causing decrease in its molecular concentration. The new available surface area and change in concentration triggers the diffusion of gas from kerogen. The process continues until all the gas present internally diffuses out of the kerogen, gets adsorbs onto available surface area and then desorbs into the nanopores and micro-fractures in the cube. Each SiC idealizes a gas pathway and is characterized by sphere diameter and length of the cube. The diameter allows to model gas storage, diffusion and desorption; the cube length takes into account the pathway for flow in nanopores and micro-fractures. Many of these representative but general cells of the reservoir are put together and linked to a well or hydraulic fracture. The paper quantitatively describes these processes as well as clarifies the geological conditions under which a successful shale gas production could be expected. A numerical model has been derived which is then compiled on FORTRAN to develop a simulator for the production of shale gas by considering the spheres as a source term in each of the grid blocks. By applying SiC to field data, we demonstrate that the model provides an effective way to quickly access gas production rates from shale formations. We also examine the effect of model input properties on gas production.

Keywords: adsorption, diffusion, non-linear flow, shale gas production

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Authors: Mattia Testuzza

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Public health is a social endeavour, which involves many different actors: from extremely stratified, structured health systems to unofficial networks of people and knowledge. Health and diseases are an intertwined individual and social experiences. Both patients and health workers navigate this public space through relations of trust. Trust in healthcare goes from the personal trust between a patient and her/his doctor to the trust of both the patient and the health worker in the medical knowledge and the healthcare system. Trust it is not a given, but it is continuously negotiated, given and gained. The key to understand these essential relations of trust in health is to recognise them as a social practice, which therefore implies agency and power. In these terms, health is constantly public and made public, as trust emerges as a meaningfully political phenomenon. Trust as a power relation can be observed at play in the implementation of public health policies such as the WHO’s Directly-Observed Theraphy Short-course (DOTS), and with the increasing concern for drug-resistance that tuberculosis pose, looking at the role of trust in the healthcare delivery system and implementation of public health policies becomes significantly relevant. The ethnographic fieldwork was carried out in four months through observation of the daily practices at the National Tuberculosis Center of Nepal, and semi-structured interviews with MultiDrug-Resistant Tuberculosis (MDR-TB) patients at different stages of the treatment, their relatives, MDR-TB specialised nurses, and doctors. Throughout the research, the role which trust plays in tuberculosis treatment emerged as one fundamental ax that cuts through all the different factors intertwined with drug-resistance development, unfolding a tension between the DOTS policy, which undermines trust, and the day-to-day healthcare relations and practices which cannot function without trust. Trust also stands out as a key component of the solutions to unforeseen issues which develop from the overall uncertainty of the context - for example, political instability and extreme poverty - in which tuberculosis treatment is carried out in Nepal.

Keywords: trust, tuberculosis, drug-resistance, politics of health

Procedia PDF Downloads 231

Authors: Ozoemelam Ikechukwu Lazarus, Nizamuddin B. Zainuddin, Abdul Kafi

Abstract:

Numerous studies have been carried out on Green Logistics Management Practices (GLMPs) across the globe. The study on the practices and performance of green chain practices in Africa in particular has not gained enough scholarly attention. Again, the majority of supply chain sustainability research being conducted focus on environmental sustainability. Logistics has been a major cause of supply chain resource waste and environmental damage. Many sectors of the economy that engage in logistical operations significantly rely on vehicles, which emit pollutants into the environment. Due to urbanization and industrialization, the logistical operations of manufacturing companies represent a serious hazard to the society and human life, making the sector one of the fastest expanding in the world today. Logistics companies are faced with numerous difficulties when attempting to implement logistics practices along their supply chains. In Nigeria, manufacturing companies aspire to implement reverse logistics in response to stakeholders’ requirements to reduce negative environmental consequences. However, implementing this is impeded by a criteria framework, and necessitates the careful analysis of how such criteria interact with each other in the presence of uncertainty. This study integrates most of the green logistics management practices (GLMPs) into the Nigerian firms to improve generalizability, and credibility. It examines the effect of Green Logistics Management Practices on environmental performance, social performance, market performance, and financial performance in the logistics industries. It seeks to identify the critical success factors in order to develop a model that incorporates different factors from the perspectives of the technology, organization, human and environment to inform the adoption and use of technologies for logistics supply chain social sustainability in Nigeria. It uses exploratory research approach to collect and analyse the data.

Keywords: logistics, managemernt, suatainability, environment, operations

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Authors: Guilhermina Torrao

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An extensive number of studies have been conducted to determine the factors which influence crash injury risk (CIR); however, uncertainties inherent to selected variables have been neglected. A review of existing literature is required to not only obtain an overview of the variables and measures but also ascertain the implications when comparing studies without a systematic view of variable taxonomy. Therefore, the aim of this literature review is to examine and report on peer-reviewed studies in the field of crash analysis and to understand the implications of broad variations in variable selection in CIR analysis. The objective of this study is to demonstrate the variance in variable selection and classification when modeling injury risk involving occupants of light vehicles by presenting an analytical review of the literature. Based on data collected from 64 journal publications reported over the past 21 years, the analytical review discusses the variables selected by each study across an organized list of predictors for CIR analysis and provides a better understanding of the contribution of accident and vehicle factors to injuries acquired by occupants of light vehicles. A cross-comparison analysis demonstrates that almost half the studies (48%) did not consider vehicle design specifications (e.g., vehicle weight), whereas, for those that did, the vehicle age/model year was the most selected explanatory variable used by 41% of the literature studies. For those studies that included speed risk factor in their analyses, the majority (64%) used the legal speed limit data as a ‘proxy’ of vehicle speed at the moment of a crash, imposing limitations for CIR analysis and modeling. Despite the proven efficiency of airbags in minimizing injury impact following a crash, only 22% of studies included airbag deployment data. A major contribution of this study is to highlight the uncertainty linked to explanatory variable selection and identify opportunities for improvements when performing future studies in the field of road injuries.

Keywords: crash, exploratory, injury, risk, variables, vehicle

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Authors: R. Hellmuth

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The method of factory planning has changed a lot, especially when it is about planning the factory building itself. Factory planning has the task of designing products, plants, processes, organization, areas, and the building of a factory. Regular restructuring is becoming more important in order to maintain the competitiveness of a factory. Restrictions in new areas, shorter life cycles of product and production technology as well as a VUCA world (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity) lead to more frequent restructuring measures within a factory. A digital factory model is the planning basis for rebuilding measures and becomes an indispensable tool. Furthermore, digital building models are increasingly being used in factories to support facility management and manufacturing processes. The main research question of this paper is, therefore: What kind of digital factory model is suitable for the different areas of application during the operation of a factory? First, different types of digital factory models are investigated, and their properties and usabilities for use cases are analysed. Within the scope of investigation are point cloud models, building information models, photogrammetry models, and these enriched with sensor data are examined. It is investigated which digital models allow a simple integration of sensor data and where the differences are. Subsequently, possible application areas of digital factory models are determined by means of a survey and the respective digital factory models are assigned to the application areas. Finally, an application case from maintenance is selected and implemented with the help of the appropriate digital factory model. It is shown how a completely digitalized maintenance process can be supported by a digital factory model by providing information. Among other purposes, the digital factory model is used for indoor navigation, information provision, and display of sensor data. In summary, the paper shows a structuring of digital factory models that concentrates on the geometric representation of a factory building and its technical facilities. A practical application case is shown and implemented. Thus, the systematic selection of digital factory models with the corresponding application cases is evaluated.

Keywords: building information modeling, digital factory model, factory planning, maintenance

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Authors: Mohamed A. Hammad, Dzul Azri Mohamed Noor, Syed Azhar Syed Sulaiman, Abeer Kharshid, Nor Azizah Aziz, Tarek M. Elsayed

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Medication safety is always an issue. In 2015, the National Pharmaceutical Control Bureau released a statement requesting all statins manufacturers in Malaysia to include the risk of diabetes information in the drug information leaflet in response to United States Food and Drug Administration (U.S. FDA) report. However, the data regarding this warning label in Malaysia is limited, so there is still some uncertainty whether such risk can also be observed in the Malaysian population or not. The study aims to determine the effect of statins on HbA1c% in type 2 diabetic outpatients in endocrine clinics at Hospital Pulau Pinang between June 2015 and May 2016 in Malaysia. In a prospective cohort study, records of 400 type 2 diabetic patients (control group 104 patients not using statin and treatment group 296 patients using statin) were reviewed to identify demographic criteria and lab tests. The prevalence of glycemic control (Glycated hemoglobin, HbA1C ≤ 7% for patient < 65 years, and < 8% for patient ≥ 65 years) was estimated, according to American Diabetes Association guidelines 2015. The results were presented as descriptive statistics. From 296 patients with Type 2 diabetes using statins cohort with a mean age of 57.52 ± 12.2 years, only 81 (27.4%) cases had controlled glycemia, and 215 (72.6%) had uncontrolled glycemia, CI: 95% (6.3–11.1). While the control group 104 diabetic patients had a mean age 46.1 ± 18 years and distributed among 59 (56.7%) patients with controlled diabetes and 45 (43.3%) cases, had uncontrolled glycemia, CI: 95% (5.2–10.3). The relative risk (RR) of uncontrolled glycemia in diabetic patients used statins was 1.68, and the excessive relative risk (ERR) was 68%. The absolute risk (AR) was 29.3%, and the number needed to harm (NNH) was 4. Diabetic patients using statins have more risk of uncontrolled glycemia than the patients with Type 2 diabetes non-using statins.

Keywords: diabetes mellitus, HbA1c, Malaysia, outpatients, statin, type 2, uncontrolled glycemia

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Authors: Oluwaseun K. Oyebode, Josiah A. Adeyemo

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Hydrological modelling plays a crucial role in the planning and management of water resources, most especially in water stressed regions where the need to effectively manage the available water resources is of critical importance. However, due to the complex, nonlinear and dynamic behaviour of hydro-climatic interactions, achieving reliable modelling of water resource systems and accurate projection of hydrological parameters are extremely challenging. Although a significant number of modelling techniques (process-based and data-driven) have been developed and adopted in that regard, the field of hydrological modelling is still considered as one that has sluggishly progressed over the past decades. This is majorly as a result of the identification of some degree of uncertainty in the methodologies and results of techniques adopted. In recent times, evolutionary computation (EC) techniques have been developed and introduced in response to the search for efficient and reliable means of providing accurate solutions to hydrological related problems. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the underlying principles, methodological needs and applications of a promising evolutionary computation modelling technique – genetic programming (GP). It examines the specific characteristics of the technique which makes it suitable to solving hydrological modelling problems. It discusses the opportunities inherent in the application of GP in water related-studies such as rainfall estimation, rainfall-runoff modelling, streamflow forecasting, sediment transport modelling, water quality modelling and groundwater modelling among others. Furthermore, the means by which such opportunities could be harnessed in the near future are discussed. In all, a case for total embracement of GP and its variants in hydrological modelling studies is made so as to put in place strategies that would translate into achieving meaningful progress as it relates to modelling of water resource systems, and also positively influence decision-making by relevant stakeholders.

Keywords: computational modelling, evolutionary algorithms, genetic programming, hydrological modelling

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Authors: Pius Borona, Cheikh Mbow, Issa Ouedraogo

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In the Sahel, climate variability has been associated with a complex web of direct and indirect impacts. This natural phenomenon has been an impediment to agro-pastoral communities who experience uncertainty while involving in farming activities which is also their key source of livelihood. In this scenario, the role of climate variability in influencing the performance, quantity and quality of staple cereals yields, vital for food and nutrition security has been a topic of importance. This response of crops and subsequent yield variability is also a subject of immense debate due to the complexity of crop development at different stages. This complexity is further compounded by influence of slowly changing non-climatic factors. With these challenges in mind, the present paper initially explores the occurrence of climate variability at an inter annual and inter decadal level in South Burkina Faso. This is evidenced by variation of the total annual rainfall and the number of rainy days among other climatic descriptors. Further, it is shown how district-scale cereal yields in the study area including maize, sorghum and millet casually associate variably to the inter-annual variation of selected climate variables. Statistical models show that the three cereals widely depict sensitivity to the length of the growing period and total dry days in the growing season. Maize yields on the other hand relate strongly to the rainfall amount variation (R2=51.8%) showing high moisture dependence during critical growth stages. Our conclusions emphasize on adoption of efficient water utilization platforms especially those that have evidently increased yields and strengthening of forecasts dissemination.

Keywords: climate variability, cereal yields, seasonality, rain fed farming, Burkina Faso, rainfall

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Authors: Dalia Kubiliūtė

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Lithuania is known as a trusted location for global business institutions, and it attracts investors with it’s competitive environment for financial service providers. Along with the aspiration to offer a strong results-oriented and innovations-driven environment for financial service providers, Lithuanian regulatory authorities consistently implement the European Union's high regulatory standards for financial activities, including sustainability-related disclosures. Since European Union directed its policy towards transition to a climate-neutral, green, competitive, and inclusive economy, additional regulatory requirements for financial market participants are adopted: disclosure of sustainable activities, transparency, prevention of greenwashing, etc. The financial sector is one of the key factors influencing the implementation of sustainability objectives in European Union policies and mitigating the negative effects of climate change –public funds are not enough to make a significant impact on sustainable investments, therefore directing public and private capital to green projects may help to finance the necessary changes. The topic of the study is original and has not yet been widely analyzed in Lithuanian legal discourse. There are used quantitative and qualitative methodologies, logical, systematic, and critical analysis principles; hence the aim of this study is to reveal the problem of the implementation of the regulation on sustainability in the Lithuanian financial sector. Additional regulatory requirements could cause serious changes in financial business operations: additional funds, employees, and time have to be dedicated in order for the companies could implement these regulations. Lack of knowledge and data on how to implement new regulatory requirements towards sustainable reporting causes a lot of uncertainty for financial market participants. And for some companies, it might even be an essential point in terms of business continuity. It is considered that the supervisory authorities should find a balance between financial market needs and legal regulation.

Keywords: financial, legal, regulatory, sustainability

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Authors: Philippa Hunter

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How might history education support teachers and students to see the past as a provocation, be open to possible futures, and act differently? As teacher educators in an age of diversity and uncertainty, we need to question history’s curriculum nature, pedagogy, and policy intent. The cultural politics of history’s identity in the senior secondary curriculum influences educational socialization (disciplinary, professional, research) and engagement with curriculum decision-making. This paper reflects on curriculum disturbance that shaped a critical pedagogy stance to problematize school history’s certainties. The context is situated in an Aotearoa New Zealand university-based initial teacher education programme. A pedagogic innovation was activated whereby problematized history pedagogy [PHP] was conceptualized as the phenomenon and method of inquiry and storied in doctoral work. The PHP was a reciprocal research process involving history class’ participants and the teacher as researcher, in fashioning teaching identities, identifying with, and thinking critically about history pedagogy. PHP findings revealed evocative discourses of embodiment, nostalgia, and connectedness about living ‘inside the past’. Participants expressed certainty about their abilities as teachers living ‘outside the past’ to interpret historical perspectives. However, discomfort was evident in relation to ‘difficult knowledge’ or unfamiliar contexts of the past that exposed exclusion, powerlessness, or silenced voices. Participants identified history programmes as strongly masculine and conflict-focused. A normalized inquiry-transmission approach to history pedagogy was identified and critiqued. Individuals’ reflexive accounts of PHP implemented whilst on practicum indicate possibilities of history pedagogy as; inclusive and democratic, social and ethical reconstruction, and as a critical project. The PHP sought to reimagine history curriculum and identify spaces of possibility in secondary postgraduate teacher education.

Keywords: curriculum, pedagogy, problematise, reciprocal

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Authors: Radzuan Junin, Dayang Zulaika A. Hasbollah

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The increasing amount of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere recently has become one of the discussed topics in relation with world’s concern on climate change. Developing countries’ emissions (such as Malaysia) are now seen to surpass developed country’s emissions due to rapid economic development growth in recent decades. This paper presents the potential storage sites suitability and storage capacity assessment for CO2 sequestration in sedimentary basins of Malaysia. This study is the first of its kind that made an identification of potential storage sites and assessment of CO2 storage capacity within the deep saline aquifers in the country. The CO2 storage capacity in saline formation assessment was conducted based on the method for quick assessment of CO2 storage capacity in closed, and semi-closed saline formations modified to suit the geology setting of Malaysia. Then, an integrated approach that involved geographic information systems (GIS) analysis and field data assessment was adopted to provide the potential storage sites and its capacity for CO2 sequestration. This study concentrated on the assessment of major sedimentary basins in Malaysia both onshore and offshore where potential geological formations which CO2 could be stored exist below 800 meters and where suitable sealing formations are present. Based on regional study and amount of data available, there are 14 sedimentary basins all around Malaysia that has been identified as potential CO2 storage. Meanwhile, from the screening and ranking exercises, it is obvious that Malay Basin, Central Luconia Province, West Baram Delta and Balingian Province are respectively ranked as the top four in the ranking system for CO2 storage. 27% of sedimentary basins in Malaysia were evaluated as high potential area for CO2 storage. This study should provide a basis for further work to reduce the uncertainty in these estimates and also provide support to policy makers on future planning of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) projects in Malaysia.

Keywords: CO₂ storage, deep saline aquifer, GIS, sedimentary basin

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Authors: Ruzanna Muradyan

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Medical data mining is a crucial field in contemporary healthcare that offers cutting-edge tactics with enormous potential to transform patient care. This abstract examines how sophisticated data mining techniques could transform the healthcare industry, with a special focus on how they might improve patient outcomes. Healthcare data repositories have dynamically evolved, producing a rich tapestry of different, multi-dimensional information that includes genetic profiles, lifestyle markers, electronic health records, and more. By utilizing data mining techniques inside this vast library, a variety of prospects for precision medicine, predictive analytics, and insight production become visible. Predictive modeling for illness prediction, risk stratification, and therapy efficacy evaluations are important points of focus. Healthcare providers may use this abundance of data to tailor treatment plans, identify high-risk patient populations, and forecast disease trajectories by applying machine learning algorithms and predictive analytics. Better patient outcomes, more efficient use of resources, and early treatments are made possible by this proactive strategy. Furthermore, data mining techniques act as catalysts to reveal complex relationships between apparently unrelated data pieces, providing enhanced insights into the cause of disease, genetic susceptibilities, and environmental factors. Healthcare practitioners can get practical insights that guide disease prevention, customized patient counseling, and focused therapies by analyzing these associations. The abstract explores the problems and ethical issues that come with using data mining techniques in the healthcare industry. In order to properly use these approaches, it is essential to find a balance between data privacy, security issues, and the interpretability of complex models. Finally, this abstract demonstrates the revolutionary power of modern data mining methodologies in transforming the healthcare sector. Healthcare practitioners and researchers can uncover unique insights, enhance clinical decision-making, and ultimately elevate patient care to unprecedented levels of precision and efficacy by employing cutting-edge methodologies.

Keywords: data mining, healthcare, patient care, predictive analytics, precision medicine, electronic health records, machine learning, predictive modeling, disease prognosis, risk stratification, treatment efficacy, genetic profiles, precision health

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Authors: Christian Ihwiwhu, Nnamdi Obioha, Udeme John, Edward Bobade, Oghenerunor Bekibele, Adedeji Awujoola, Ibi-Ada Itotoi

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Understanding the complexity in the distribution of hydrocarbon in a simple structure with flow baffles and connectivity issues is critical in targeting and developing the remaining pay in a mature asset. Subtle facies changes (heterogeneity) can have a drastic impact on reservoir fluids movement, and this can be crucial to identifying sweet spots in mature fields. This study aims to evaluate selected reservoirs in Ovhor Field, Niger Delta, Nigeria, with the objective of optimising production from the field by targeting undeveloped oil reserves, bypassed pay, and gaining an improved understanding of the selected reservoirs to increase the company’s reservoir limits. The task at the Ovhor field is complicated by poor stratigraphic seismic resolution over the field. 3-D geological (sedimentology and stratigraphy) interpretation, use of results from quantitative interpretation, and proper understanding of production data have been used in recognizing flow baffles and undeveloped compartments in the field. The full field 3-D model has been constructed in such a way as to capture heterogeneities and the various compartments in the field to aid the proper simulation of fluid flow in the field for future production prediction, proper history matching and design of good trajectories to adequately target undeveloped oil in the field. Reservoir property models (porosity, permeability, and net-to-gross) have been constructed by biasing log interpreted properties to a defined environment of deposition model whose interpretation captures the heterogeneities expected in the studied reservoirs. At least, two scenarios have been modelled for most of the studied reservoirs to capture the range of uncertainties we are dealing with. The total original oil in-place volume for the four reservoirs studied is 157 MMstb. The cumulative oil and gas production from the selected reservoirs are 67.64 MMstb and 9.76 Bscf respectively, with current production rate of about 7035 bopd and 4.38 MMscf/d (as at 31/08/2019). Dynamic simulation and production forecast on the 4 reservoirs gave an undeveloped reserve of about 3.82 MMstb from two (2) identified oil restoration activities. These activities include side-tracking and re-perforation of existing wells. This integrated approach led to the identification of bypassed oil in some areas of the selected reservoirs and an improved understanding of the studied reservoirs. New wells have/are being drilled now to test the results of our studies, and the results are very confirmatory and satisfying.

Keywords: facies, flow baffle, bypassed pay, heterogeneities, history matching, reservoir limit

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Authors: Anjali Uday, Yuting Wang, Andres Alfonso Pena Olare

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The Discrete Element Method is a promising approach to modeling microscopic behaviors of granular materials. The quality of the simulations however depends on the model parameters utilized. The present study focuses on calibration and validation of the discrete element parameters for Cuxhaven sand based on the experimental data from triaxial and oedometer tests. A sensitivity analysis was conducted during the sample preparation stage and the shear stage of the triaxial tests. The influence of parameters like rolling resistance, inter-particle friction coefficient, confining pressure and effective modulus were investigated on the void ratio of the sample generated. During the shear stage, the effect of parameters like inter-particle friction coefficient, effective modulus, rolling resistance friction coefficient and normal-to-shear stiffness ratio are examined. The calibration of the parameters is carried out such that the simulations reproduce the macro mechanical characteristics like dilation angle, peak stress, and stiffness. The above-mentioned calibrated parameters are then validated by simulating an oedometer test on the sand. The oedometer test results are in good agreement with experiments, which proves the suitability of the calibrated parameters. In the next step, the calibrated and validated model parameters are applied to forecast the micromechanical behavior including the evolution of contact force chains, buckling of columns of particles, observation of non-coaxiality, and sample inhomogeneity during a simple shear test. The evolution of contact force chains vividly shows the distribution, and alignment of strong contact forces. The changes in coordination number are in good agreement with the volumetric strain exhibited during the simple shear test. The vertical inhomogeneity of void ratios is documented throughout the shearing phase, which shows looser structures in the top and bottom layers. Buckling of columns is not observed due to the small rolling resistance coefficient adopted for simulations. The non-coaxiality of principal stress and strain rate is also well captured. Thus the micromechanical behaviors are well described using the calibrated and validated material parameters.

Keywords: discrete element model, parameter calibration, triaxial test, oedometer test, simple shear test

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Authors: Mehdi Khaki, Ehsan Forootan, Joseph Awange, Michael Kuhn

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Terrestrial water storage, as a source of freshwater, plays an important role in human lives. Hydrological models offer important tools for simulating and predicting water storages at global and regional scales. However, their comparisons with 'reality' are imperfect mainly due to a high level of uncertainty in input data and limitations in accounting for all complex water cycle processes, uncertainties of (unknown) empirical model parameters, as well as the absence of high resolution (both spatially and temporally) data. Data assimilation can mitigate this drawback by incorporating new sets of observations into models. In this effort, we use multi-mission satellite-derived remotely sensed observations to improve the performance of World-Wide Water Resources Assessment system (W3RA) hydrological model for estimating terrestrial water storages. For this purpose, we assimilate total water storage (TWS) data from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) and surface soil moisture data from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) into W3RA. This is done to (i) improve model estimations of water stored in ground and soil moisture, and (ii) assess the impacts of each satellite of data (from GRACE and AMSR-E) and their combination on the final terrestrial water storage estimations. These data are assimilated into W3RA using the Ensemble Square-Root Filter (EnSRF) filtering technique over Mississippi Basin (the United States) and Murray-Darling Basin (Australia) between 2002 and 2013. In order to evaluate the results, independent ground-based groundwater and soil moisture measurements within each basin are used.

Keywords: data assimilation, GRACE, AMSR-E, hydrological model, EnSRF

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Authors: Nancy Awuor Oduor, Nils Moosdorf

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Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) are a threat to coastal water quality, marine biodiversity, and human health. The attention on HABs and associated phycotoxins is still very low in tropical coastal developing countries despite the high dependence of local communities on coastal and marine resources for food and livelihoods and the growing evidence of the global increase in HABs frequency, toxicity, and geographical expansion. Lack of HABs monitoring thus creates a high risk of exposure due to uncertainty. This study assessed the spatial and temporal variability and effects of potential HAB-forming species in Kenya’s coastal waters. The preliminary results from 463 sampled collected over a series of 10 coastal surveys conducted over 267 Km of Kenya’s coastline between August 2021 and July 2022 revealed the presence of 87 potential algal blooming species belonging to 47 genera dominated by species capable of producing toxins, causing physical harm and high biomass at 41, 31 and 21 % respectively. The taxonomic composition was also dominated by dinoflagellates at 47%, followed by diatoms, cyanobacteria, and silicoflagellates at 39, 12, and 2%, respectively. About 92 % of the toxin-producing species were established in the creek waters. However, there were no significant variations established in species richness between the dry and wet seasons. Paralytic Shellfish Poisoning (PSP) toxin-producing dinoflagellates Alexandrium spp., Aphanizomenon spp., Gonyaulax spp., Gymnodinium spp., and Brachydinium capitatum, and Amnesic Shellfish Poisoning (ASP) Toxin producing diatoms Amphora spp., Nitzschia spp. and Pseudo-nitzschia spp. Frequented the area in low cell densities ranging between 5 and 1500 cells/L. However, no domoic acid (DA) and saxitoxins (SXTs) were detected during the July surveys. This does not mean that the toxins are absent in the area, and longer studies are recommended.

Keywords: harmful algal blooms, phycotoxins, saxitoxin, domoic acid, Kenya

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Authors: Riofrio Jonathan, Fernandez Guillermo

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Renewable energy represented around 80% of the energy matrix for power generation in Ecuador during 2020, so the deployment of current public policies is focused on taking advantage of the high presence of renewable sources to carry out several electrification projects. These projects are part of the portfolio sent to the United Nations Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as a commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in the established national determined contribution (NDC). In this sense, the Ecuadorian Organic Energy Efficiency Law (LOEE) published in 2019 promotes E-mobility as one of the main milestones. In fact, it states that the new vehicles for urban and interurban usage must be E-buses since 2025. As a result, and for a successful implementation of this technological change in a national context, it is important to deploy land surveys focused on technical and geographical areas to keep the quality of services in both the electricity and transport sectors. Therefore, this research presents a technological and energy comparison between a conventional diesel bus and its equivalent E-bus. Both vehicles fulfill all the technical requirements to ride in the study-case city, which is Ambato in the province of Tungurahua-Ecuador. In addition, the analysis includes the development of a model for the energy estimation of both technologies that are especially applied in a highland city such as Ambato. The altimetry of the most important bus routes in the city varies from 2557 to 3200 m.a.s.l., respectively, for the lowest and highest points. These operation conditions provide a grade of novelty to this paper. Complementary, the technical specifications of diesel buses are defined following the common features of buses registered in Ambato. On the other hand, the specifications for E-buses come from the most common units introduced in Latin America because there is not enough evidence in similar cities at the moment. The achieved results will be good input data for decision-makers since electric demand forecast, energy savings, costs, and greenhouse gases emissions are computed. Indeed, GHG is important because it allows reporting the transparency framework that it is part of the Paris Agreement. Finally, the presented results correspond to stage I of the called project “Analysis and Prospective of Electromobility in Ecuador and Energy Mix towards 2030” supported by Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ).

Keywords: high altitude cities, energy planning, NDC, e-buses, e-mobility

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