Search results for: cardiometabolic risk factors

Authors: Yusarina Mat-Isa, Zuraidah Mohd-Sanusi, Mohd-Nizal Haniff, Paul A. Barnes

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In view that money laundering has become eminent for banking institutions, it is an obligation for the banking institutions to adopt a risk-based approach as the integral component of the accepted policies on anti-money laundering. In doing so, those involved with the banking operations are the most critical group of personnel as these are the people who deal with the day-to-day operations of the banking institutions and are obligated to form a judgement on the level of impending risk. This requirement is extended to all relevant banking institutions staff, such as tellers and customer account representatives for them to identify suspicious customers and escalate it to the relevant authorities. Banking institutions staffs, however, face enormous challenges in identifying and distinguishing money launderers from other legitimate customers seeking genuine banking transactions. Banking institutions staffs are mostly educated and trained with the business objective in mind to serve the customers and are not trained to be “detectives with a detective’s power of observation”. Despite increasing awareness as well as trainings conducted for the banking institutions staff, their competency in assessing money laundering risk is still insufficient. Several gaps have prompted this study including the lack of behavioural perspectives in the assessment of money laundering risk in the banking institutions. Utilizing experimental approach, respondents are randomly assigned within a controlled setting with manipulated situations upon which judgement of the respondents is solicited based on various observations related to the situations. The study suggests that it is imperative that informed judgement is exercised in arriving at the decision to proceed with the banking services required by the customers. Judgement forms a basis of opinion for the banking institution staff to decide if the customers posed money laundering risk. Failure to exercise good judgement could results in losses and absorption of unnecessary risk into the banking institutions. Although the banking institutions are exposed with choices of automated solutions in assessing money laundering risk, the human factor in assessing the risk is indispensable. Individual staff in the banking institutions is the first line of defence who are responsible for screening the impending risk of any customer soliciting for banking services. At the end of the spectrum, the individual role involvement on the subject of money laundering risk assessment is not a substitute for automated solutions as human judgement is inimitable.

Keywords: banking institutions, experimental approach, money laundering, risk assessment

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Authors: Mohsen Shirani, Shadi Asadzandi, Micaela Demichela

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This paper presents the results of a study to assess crucial aspects and the strength of the scientific basis of a typically interdisciplinary, applied field: food supply chain risk assessment research. Our approach is based on an advanced scientometrics analysis with novel elements to assess the influence and dissemination of research results and to measure interdisciplinary. This paper aims to describe the quantity and quality of the publication trends in food supply chain risk assessment. The population under study was composed of 266 articles from database web of science. The results were analyzed based on date of publication, type of document, language of the documents, source of publications, subject areas, authors and their affiliations, and the countries involved in developing the articles.

Keywords: food supply chain, risk assessment, scientometrics, web of science

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Authors: Zohreh Khojasteh-Ghamari, Takashi Irohara

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One of the efficient ways in supply chain risk management is avoiding the interruption in Supply Chain (SC) before it occurs. Although the majority of the organizations focus on their first-tier suppliers to avoid risk in the SC, studies show that in only 60 percent of the disruption cases the reason is first tier suppliers. In the 40 percent of the SC disruptions, the reason is downstream SC, which is the second tier and lower. Due to the increasing complexity and interrelation of modern supply chains, the SC elements have become difficult to trace. Moreover, studies show that there is a vital need to better understand the integration of risk and visibility, especially in the context of multiple objectives. In this study, we propose a multi-objective programming model to avoid disruption in SC. The objective of this study is evaluating the effect of downstream SCV on managing supply chain risk. We propose a multi-objective mathematical programming model with the objective functions of minimizing the total cost and maximizing the downstream supply chain visibility (SCV). The decision variable is supplier selection. We assume there are several manufacturers and several candidate suppliers. For each manufacturer, our model proposes the best suppliers with the lowest cost and maximum visibility in downstream supply chain. We examine the applicability of the model by numerical examples. We also define several scenarios for datasets and observe the tendency. The results show that minimum visibility in downstream SC is needed to have a safe SC network.

Keywords: downstream supply chain, optimization, supply chain risk, supply chain visibility

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Authors: Rachel deCatanzaro, Madeline Austen, Ken Tuininga, Kathy St. Laurent, Christina Rohe

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In Canada, the federal Species at Risk Act (SARA) provides protection for wildlife species at risk and a national legislative framework for the conservation or recovery of species that are listed as endangered, threatened, or special concern under Schedule 1 of SARA. Key aspects of the federal species at risk program include the development of recovery documents (recovery strategies, action plans, and management plans) outlining threats, objectives, and broad strategies or measures for conservation or recovery of the species; the identification and protection of critical habitat for threatened and endangered species; and working with groups and organizations to implement on-the-ground recovery actions. Environment Canada’s progress on the development of recovery documents and on the identification and protection of critical habitat in Ontario will be presented, along with successes and challenges associated with on-the ground implementation of recovery actions. In Ontario, Environment Canada is currently involved in several recovery and monitoring programs for at-risk bird species such as the Loggerhead Shrike, Piping Plover, Golden-winged Warbler and Cerulean Warbler and has provided funding for a wide variety of recovery actions targeting priority species at risk and geographic areas each year through stewardship programs including the Habitat Stewardship Program, Aboriginal Fund for Species at Risk, and the Interdepartmental Recovery Fund. Key research needs relevant to the recovery of species at risk have been identified, and include: surveys and monitoring of population sizes and threats, population viability analyses, and addressing knowledge gaps identified for individual species (e.g., species biology and habitat needs). The engagement of all levels of government, the local and international conservation communities, and the scientific research community plays an important role in the conservation and recovery of species at risk in Ontario– through surveying and monitoring, filling knowledge gaps, conducting public outreach, and restoring, protecting, or managing habitat – and will be critical to the continued success of the federal species at risk program.

Keywords: conservation biology, habitat protection, species at risk, wildlife recovery

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Authors: Lina Najafian, Hamidreza Vakilifard

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The present study focused on the relationship between the quality of accruals and non-systematic risk. The independent study variables included the ability of accruals, the information content of accruals, and amount of discretionary accruals considered as accruals quality measures. The dependent variable was non-systematic risk based on the Fama and French Three Factor model (FFTFM) and the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). The control variables were firm size, financial leverage, stock return, cash flow fluctuations, and book-to-market ratio. The data collection method was based on library research and document mining including financial statements. Multiple regression analysis was used to analyze the data. The study results showed that there is a significant direct relationship between financial leverage and discretionary accruals and non-systematic risk based on FFTFM and CAPM. There is also a significant direct relationship between the ability of accruals, information content of accruals, firm size, and stock return and non-systematic based on both models. It was also found that there is no relationship between book-to-market ratio and cash flow fluctuations and non-systematic risk.

Keywords: accruals quality, non-systematic risk, CAPM, FFTFM

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Authors: O. O. Olawusi-Peters, K. I. Adejugbagbe

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The concentration of heavy metal (Cd, Pb, Fe, Zn, Cu) in Clarias gariepinus collected from fish markets; Fanibi (Station I) and Fiwasaye (Station II) in Akure metropolis, Ondo state, Nigeria were investigated to ascertain the safety for the consumers. 60 samples were collected from the two markets in three batches (I, II, III) for a period of six months and analyzed for heavy metals in the gills and muscles of the fish. Also, the Health Risk Index (HRI) was used to determine the health risk of these metals to the consumer. The results showed that the investigated metal concentration was higher in station I than station II, except Pb having higher concentration in station II than station I. In both stations, the highest concentration of Fe was recorded in the gills (12.60 ± 1.51; 6.94 ± 1.38) and muscles (3.72 ± 0.09; 3.86 ± 0.33) of samples in batch I. Also, the HRI revealed that consumption of Clarias gariepinus from these study areas did not pose any health risk (HRI < 1). In addition, concentrations of the heavy metals were all below the permissible limits recommended by FAO/WHO.

Keywords: health risk index, heavy metals, clarias gariepinus, akure metropolis, fish monger

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Authors: Raneem O. Salem, Najwa Al-Mously, Nihal Mohamed Nabil, Abdulmohsen H. Al-Zalabani, Abeer F. Al-Dhawi, Nasser Al-Hamdan

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Objective: There are various demographic and educational factors that affect the academic performance of undergraduate medical students. The objective of this study is to identify these factors and correlate them to the GPA of the students. Methods: A cross-sectional study design utilizing grade point averages (GPAs) of two cohorts of students in both levels of the pre-clinical phase. In addition, self-administered questionnaire was used to evaluate the effect of these factors on students with poor and good cumulative GPA. Results: Among the various factors studied, gender, marital status, and the transportation used to reach the faculty significantly affected academic performance of students. Students with a cumulative GPA of 3.0 or greater significantly differed than those with a GPA of less than 3.0 being higher in female students, in married students, and type of transportation used to reach the college. Factors including age, educational factors, and type of transportation used have shown to create a significant difference in GPA between male and females. Conclusion: Factors such as age, gender, marital status, learning resources, study time, and the transportation used have been shown to significantly affect medical student GPA as a whole batch as well as when they are tested for gender.

Keywords: academic performance, educational factors, learning resources, study time, gender, socio-demographic factors

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Authors: Eun-Chan Kim, Jeong-Hwan Oh, Seung-Guk Lee

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Billions of tones of ballast water including various aquatic organisms are being carried around the world by ships. When the ballast water is discharged into new environments, some aquatic organisms discharged with ballast water may become invasive and severely disrupt the native ecology. Thus, International Maritime Organization (IMO) adopted the Ballast Water Management Convention in 2004. Regulation A-4 of the convention states that a government in waters under their jurisdiction may grant exemptions to any requirements to ballast water management, but only when they are granted to a ship or ships on a voyage or voyages between specified ports or locations, or to a ship which operates exclusively between specified ports or locations. In order to grant exemptions, risk assessment should be conducted based on the guidelines for risk assessment developed by the IMO. For the risk assessment, it is essential to collect the relevant information and establish a database system. This paper studies the database system for ballast water risk assessment. This database consists of the shipping database, ballast water database, port environment database and species database. The shipping database has been established based on the data collected from the port management information system of Korea Government. For the ballast water database, ballast water discharge has only been estimated by the loading/unloading of the cargoes as the convention has not come into effect yet. The port environment database and species database are being established based on the reference documents, and existing and newly collected monitoring data. This database system has been approved to be a useful system, capable of appropriately analyzing the risk assessment in the all ports of Korea.

Keywords: ballast water, IMO, risk assessment, shipping, environment, species

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Authors: Lowanika Victor Tibane, David Mamba

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Human body, animals, and plants depend on certain essential metals in permissible quantities for their survival. Excessive metal concentration may cause severe malfunctioning of the organisms and even fatal in extreme cases. Because of gold mining in the Witwatersrand basin in South Africa, enormous untreated mine dumps comprise elevated concentration of essential trace elements. Elevated quantities of trace metal have direct negative impact on the quality of soil for different land use types, reduce soil efficiency for plant growth, and affect the health human and animals. A total of 21 subsoil samples were examined using inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry and X-ray fluorescence methods and the results elevated men concentration of Fe (36,433.39) > S (5,071.83) > Cu (1,717,28) > Mn (612.81) > Cr (74.52) > Zn (68.67) > Ni (40.44) > Co (9.63) > P (3.49) > Mo > (2.74), reported in mg/kg. Using various contamination indices, it was discovered that the sites surveyed are on average moderately contaminated with Co, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, S, and Zn. The ecological risk assessment revealed a low ecological risk for Cr, Ni and Zn, whereas Cu poses a very high ecological risk.

Keywords: essential trace elements, soil contamination, contamination indices, toxicity, descriptive statistics, ecological risk evaluation

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Authors: Naveed Ul Hassan, Bilal Aziz, Maryam Mushtaq, Imran Ameen Khan

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Equity risk premium (ERP) is the stock return in excess of risk free return. Even though it is an essential topic of finance but still there is no common consensus upon its forecasting. For forecasting ERP, apart from the macroeconomic variables attention is devoted to technical indicators as well. For this purpose, set of 14 technical and 14 macro-economic variables is selected and all forecasts are generated based on a standard predictive regression framework, where ERP is regressed on a constant and a lag of a macroeconomic variable or technical indicator. The comparative results showed that technical indicators provide better indications about ERP estimates as compared to macro-economic variables. The relative strength of ERP predictability is also investigated by using National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) data of business cycle expansion and recessions and found that ERP predictability is more than twice for recessions as compared to expansions.

Keywords: equity risk premium, forecasting, macroeconomic indicators, technical indicators

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Authors: Haïfa Ben Mna, Ayed Added

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To evaluate the trace metals contamination status in the Gulf of Tunis, forty one sediment samples were analyzed using different approaches. According to certain contamination and ecological risk indices (Contamination Factor, Geoaccumulation index and Ecological risk index), Hg has the highest contamination level while pollution by Ni, Pb, Cd and Cr was absent. The highest concentrations of trace metals were found in sediments collected from the offshore and coastal areas located opposite the main exchange points with the gulf particularly, the Mejerda and Meliane Rivers, the Khalij Channel, Ghar El Melh and El Malah lagoons, Tunis Lake and Sebkhat Ariana. However, further ecological indices (Potential ecological risk index, Toxic unit and Mean effect-range median quotient) and comparison with sediment quality guidelines suggest that in addition to Mercury, Cr, Pb and Ni concentrations are detrimental to biota in both the offshore and areas near to the exchange points with the gulf. Moreover, in these areas the results from sequential extraction and individual contamination factor calculation pointed to the mobility and bioavailability of Cr, Pb and Ni.

Keywords: sediment, trace metals, contamination assessment, ecological risk, Tunis gulf

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Authors: Katalin Szöllősi, László Szabó

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Introduction and purpose: Even though female sexual dysfunctions are common among women in the postpartum period, the profile of these disturbances has not been well investigated in Hungary yet. The aim of the study was to evaluate the postpartum female sexual functions in Hungary. This research sought to investigate the possible predictor factors which can influence postpartum female sexual functions. Method and sample: This was a cross-sectional study, including patients from two maternity clinics in Budapest. 113 women were recruited into our study 3 months after their childbirth. 53 had vaginal birth, 60 had a caesarian section. Data were collected from medical reports in addition by using self-developed questions and validated questionnaires in order to measure important predictors which may be responsible for postpartum sexual dysfunctions such as mode of delivery, parity, urinary incontinence and body image. Sexual functions were evaluated by the Hungarian version of the Female Sexual Function Index (FSFI). The Hungarian version of Body Image Questionnaire-Short Form14 (BSQ-SF14) was applied for assessing body image. Results: 82,3% of the participants began to have sexual intercourse within three months postpartum. 53,98% of the participants reported sexual dysfunctions (cut-off FSFI score 26,55). According to our results mode of delivery, parity, hemorrhoids, time of intercourse, resumption was not associated with female sexual dysfunctions. We found correlation at a tendential level between urinary incontinence and sexual dysfunctions (p=0,003, R=0,26). We found a negative correlation at a tendential level between the total score of BSQ-SF14 and FSFI (p=0,03, R=-0,269). Only 32,74% of women reported discussing sexual life with health care professionals. However, 67,25% of them would have had the need to be asked about their postpartum health issues. Conclusions and recommendations: The prevalence of female sexual dysfunctions were relatively high after childbirth. We found that incontinence and body image was associated with sexual dysfunctions; other risk factors remained unknown. Despite regular contact with health care professionals, women rarely get any information about postpartum sexual health issues. The high prevalence of dysfunctions indicates the need for further investigation to address other risk factors and proper counselling of women after childbirth.

Keywords: body image, postpartum, sexual dysfunction, urinary incontinence

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Authors: Mohammad Reza Abidi, Zahra Nourouz Pour, Mehdi Moudi

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In this research, firstly critical success factors and deterrent factors in implementing projects and also the factors those cause information technology productivity (IT) paradox in Islamic Azad University, Zahedan branch examined. Research method of this paper is descriptive. In fact, the researcher by using survey, proposed useful solutions. In this research, subjects’ responders to questionnaires items were based on Likert scale. In the questionnaire, economic, technical, organizational and cultural factors in the university have been assessed in order to obtain the necessary validity. We used masters and technicians of IT department’s advices to realize reliability and consistency. For the reliability test we used Cronbach’s reliability test and validity has been obtained using SPSS software. Because of the research questions and objectives, t-student test is used for hypothesis testing. Finally we analyze the findings, we offer conclusions and suggestions.

Keywords: IT projects, Islamic Azad University, success factors, deterrent factors

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Authors: Li-Ching Chen

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The case-control design has been widely applied in clinical and epidemiological studies to investigate the association between risk factors and a given disease. The retrospective design can be easily implemented and is more economical over prospective studies. To adjust effects for confounding factors, methods such as stratification at the design stage and may be adopted. When some major confounding factors are difficult to be quantified, a matching design provides an opportunity for researchers to control the confounding effects. The matching effects can be parameterized by the intercepts of logistic models and the conditional logistic regression analysis is then adopted. This study demonstrates an information-matrix-based goodness-of-fit statistic to test the validity of the logistic regression model for matched case-control data. The asymptotic null distribution of this proposed test statistic is inferred. It needs neither to employ a simulation to evaluate its critical values nor to partition covariate space. The asymptotic power of this test statistic is also derived. The performance of the proposed method is assessed through simulation studies. An example of the real data set is applied to illustrate the implementation of the proposed method as well.

Keywords: conditional logistic model, goodness-of-fit, information matrix, matched case-control studies

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Authors: Azizah Nurdin, Trika Irianta, Mardiah Tahir, Maisuri T. Chalid

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Background: Studies of anal incontinence in the general population are rare however its financial healthcare cost is significant. Women attended Hasanuddin University Teaching Hospital and its networking in Makassar, Indonesia was surveyed between February to April 2015 about their obstetrical and gynecological history. Aims: To establish obstetrical risk factor of anal incontinence among women in Makassar. Methods: In a cross sectional face to face interview study, 135 women aged 30 years or more were selected randomly. Participants were asked to complete an anal incontinence questionnaire. Results: From a total sample of 135 respondents, 42,2 % reported has flatulence incontinence. Parity, history of anal sphincter laceration, history of having large baby, history of assisted vaginal delivery were shown have no significant association with anal incontinence, while history of episiotomy was shown have a significant association with anal incontinence (p value < 0.05). The risk of flatulence incontinence was higher among women with history of episiotomy (OR : 2,85, 95 % CI = 1,58- 5,13) Conclusions: This study has confirmed that fecal incontinence is a fairly common symptom. Flatulence incontinence is the most frequent even. An obstetrical factor like episiotomy is one of risk factor that could be avoided in order to prevent anal incontinence.

Keywords: anal incontinence, flatulence incontinence, obstetrical risk factor, women

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Authors: Milton Montejano Castillo, Tarsicio Pastrana Salcedo

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Based on the hypothesis that disaster risk is constructed socially and historically, this article shows the importance of keeping alive the historical memory of disaster by means of architectural and urban heritage conservation. This is illustrated with three examples of Latin American World Heritage cities where disasters like floods and earthquakes have shaped urban form. Therefore, the study of urban form or ‘Urban Morphology’ is proposed as a tool to understand and analyze urban transformations with the documentation of the occurrence of disasters. Lessons learned from such cities may be useful to reduce disasters risk in contemporary built environments.

Keywords: conservation, disaster risk reduction, urban morphology, World Heritage

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Authors: Mustapha Achibane, Imane Allam

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Since the nineties, all Moroccan banking institutions have to respect an arsenal of prudential ratios. The respect of these prudential measures aims to ensure the financial system stability. In order to do so, regulatory authorities tried to reduce the financial and operational risks incurred by the banking entities. Meanwhile, regulatory authorities demanded a balance sheet management work from banks. They also asked them to establish a management control system to manage operational risk, as well as an effort in terms of incurred risk-based commitments. Therefore, the prudential approach has a macroeconomic nature and it is presented as a determinant of the operational, microeconomic approach. This operational approach takes the form of a strategy that each banking entity must develop to manage the different banking risks. This study seeks to analyze the problem of risk management between the prudential and the operational approaches. It was processed through a literature review followed by an analysis of the Moroccan banking sector’s performance. At first, we will reconcile the inductive logic and then, the analytical one. The first approach consists of analyzing the phenomenon from a normative and conceptual perspective, while the second one will consist of considering the Moroccan banking system and analyzing the behavior of Moroccan banking entities in terms of risk management and performance. The results identified a favorable growth in terms of performance, despite the huge provisioning effort made to meet the international standards and the harmonization of the regulations.

Keywords: banking performance, financial intermediation, operational approach, prudential standards, risk management

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Authors: Safia Hocine, Zina Benouaret, Djamil A¨ıssani

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In this paper, we study the performance of the strong stability method of the univariate classical risk model. We interest to the stability bounds established using two approaches. The first based on the strong stability method developed for a general Markov chains. The second approach based on the regenerative processes theory . By adopting an algorithmic procedure, we study the performance of the stability method in the case of exponential distribution claim amounts. After presenting numerically and graphically the stability bounds, an interpretation and comparison of the results have been done.

Keywords: Marcov chain, regenerative process, risk model, ruin probability, strong stability

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Authors: Lina Dagilienė

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The article explores the impact of normative institutional factors on the development of sustainability reporting. The vast majority of research in the scientific literature focuses on mandatory institutional factors, i.e. how public institutions and market regulators affect sustainability reporting. Meanwhile, there is lack of empirical data for the impact of normative institutional factors. The effect of normative factors in this paper is based on the role of non-governmental organizations (NGO) and institutional theory. The case of Global Compact Local Network in the developing country was examined. The research results revealed that in the absence of regulated factors, companies were not active with regard to social disclosures; they presented non-systemized social information of a descriptive nature. Only 10% of sustainability reports were prepared using the GRI methodology. None of the reports were assured by third parties.

Keywords: institutional theory, normative, sustainability reporting, Global Compact Local Network

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Authors: Sibusiso Mkwananzi

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The health of mother and child remain at risk among pregnant adolescents. Nevertheless, these are placed in even greater jeopardy when an expectant adolescent experiences violence. This paper sought to explore the levels and determinants of expecting adolescents in five Southern African countries. The study used the most recent (2010/2015) nationally representative demographic health survey (DHS) data from Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. The highest levels of violence during pregnancy occurred amongst adolescent females living in Zimbabwe at 11.4%, followed by Zambia (8.3%) and Namibia (7.7%). Lowest levels were seen in Mozambique at 3.6%. Additionally, the determinants of experiencing violence during pregnancy included educational attainment, marital status, wealth and place of residence. Expectant adolescents that had a higher likelihood of experiencing violence were married and lived predominantly in rural settings. Higher risk was also associated with lower acquisition of education and poverty. These results show a very similar pattern to the risk factors associated with early pregnancy in the region. The predictors point to issues of possible lowered empowerment amongst younger women in their relationships and the structural challenges faced by this fledgling group. Nevertheless, addressing these dynamics could go a long way in not only decreasing the likelihood of unwanted motherhood at this early stage of the life course, but indeed even ensuring the prevention of violence during wanted early pregnancy. This would lead to improved levels of maternal and child health despite younger maternal age and aid in achieving a number of sustainable development goals.

Keywords: adolescents, determinants, Southern Africa, violence during pregnancy

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Authors: Malvina Hoxha, Valerie Capra, Carola Buccellati, Angelo Sala, Clara Cena, Roberta Fruttero, Massimo Bertinaria, G. Enrico Rovati

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Today COXIBs are used in the treatment of arthritis and many other painful conditions in selected patients with high gastrointestinal risk and low CV risk. Previously we found a new mechanism of action of a traditional NSAID (diclofenac) and a COXIB (lumiracoxib) that possess weak competitive antagonism at the TP receptor. We hypothesize that modifying the structure of a known specific inhibitor of cyclooxygenase-2 (COXIB), so that it becomes also a more potent thromboxane antagonist will preserve the anti-inflammatory and gastrointestinal safety typical of COXIBs and prevent the cardiovascular risk associated with long term therapy.

Keywords: cyclooxygenase, inflammation, lumiracoxib, thromboxane A2

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Authors: Christian Perrin, Nicholas Blagden, Louise Allen, Sarah Impey

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Social workers in the UK and professionals globally are faced with a particular challenge when dealing with allegations of child sexual abuse (CSA) in the community. In the absence of a conviction or incontestable evidence, staff can often find themselves unable to take decisive action to remove a child from harm, even though there may be a credible threat to their welfare. Conversely, practitioners may over-calculate risk through fear of being accountable for harm. This is, in part, due to the absence of a structured and evidence-based risk assessment tool which can predict the likelihood of a person committing child sexual abuse. Such assessments are often conducted by forensic professionals who utilise offence-specific data and personal history information to calculate risk. In situations where only allegations underpin a case, this mode of assessment is not viable. There are further ethical issues surrounding the assessment of risk in this area which require expert consideration and sensitive planning. This paper explores this entangled problem extant in the wider call to prevent sexual and child sexual abuse in the community. To this end, 32 qualitative interviews were undertaken with social workers dealing with CSA cases. Results were analysed using thematic analysis and operationalised to formulate a risk and protection protocol for use in case management. This paper reports on the early findings associated with the initial indications of protocol reliability. Implications for further research and practice are discussed.

Keywords: sexual offending, child sexual offence, offender rehabilitation, risk assessment, offence prevention

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Authors: Giriraj Achari, Malay Bhattacharyya

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In this paper, the effectiveness of Copula Markov Switching Multifractal (MSM) models at forecasting Value-at-Risk of a two-stock portfolio is studied. The innovations are allowed to be drawn from distributions that can capture skewness and leptokurtosis, which are well documented empirical characteristics observed in financial returns. The candidate distributions considered for this purpose are Johnson-SU, Pearson Type-IV and α-Stable distributions. The two univariate marginal distributions are combined using the Student-t copula. The estimation of all parameters is performed by Maximum Likelihood Estimation. Finally, the models are compared in terms of accurate Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts using tests of unconditional coverage and independence. It is found that Copula-MSM-models with leptokurtic innovation distributions perform slightly better than Copula-MSM model with Normal innovations. Copula-MSM models, in general, produce better VaR forecasts as compared to traditional methods like Historical Simulation method, Variance-Covariance approach and Copula-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (Copula-GARCH) models.

Keywords: Copula, Markov Switching, multifractal, value-at-risk

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Authors: Yongrong Liu, Xin Tang

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Background: Persistent atrial fibrillation is a common arrhythmia closely related to heart failure. Heart rate control is an essential strategy for treating persistent atrial fibrillation. Still, the understanding of the relationship between different heart rate control levels and the risk of heart failure rehospitalization is limited. Objective: The objective of the study is to determine the relationship between different levels of heart rate control in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation and the risk of readmission for heart failure. Methods: We conducted a retrospective dual-centre cohort study, collecting data from patients with persistent atrial fibrillation who received outpatient treatment at two tertiary hospitals in central and western China from March 2019 to March 2020. The collected data included age, gender, body mass index (BMI), medical history, and hospitalization frequency due to heart failure. Patients were divided into three groups based on their heart rate control levels: Group I with a resting heart rate of less than 80 beats per minute, Group II with a resting heart rate between 80 and 100 beats per minute, and Group III with a resting heart rate greater than 100 beats per minute. The readmission rates due to heart failure within one year after discharge were statistically analyzed using propensity score matching in a 1:1 ratio. Differences in readmission rates among the different groups were compared using one-way ANOVA. The impact of varying levels of heart rate control on the risk of readmission for heart failure was assessed using the Cox proportional hazards model. Binary logistic regression analysis was employed to control for potential confounding factors. Results: We enrolled a total of 1136 patients with persistent atrial fibrillation. The results of the one-way ANOVA showed that there were differences in readmission rates among groups exposed to different levels of heart rate control. The readmission rates due to heart failure for each group were as follows: Group I (n=432): 31 (7.17%); Group II (n=387): 11.11%; Group III (n=317): 90 (28.50%) (F=54.3, P<0.001). After performing 1:1 propensity score matching for the different groups, 223 pairs were obtained. Analysis using the Cox proportional hazards model showed that compared to Group I, the risk of readmission for Group II was 1.372 (95% CI: 1.125-1.682, P<0.001), and for Group III was 2.053 (95% CI: 1.006-5.437, P<0.001). Furthermore, binary logistic regression analysis, including variables such as digoxin, hypertension, smoking, coronary heart disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease as independent variables, revealed that coronary heart disease and COPD also had a significant impact on readmission due to heart failure (p<0.001). Conclusion: The correlation between the heart rate control level of patients with persistent atrial fibrillation and the risk of heart failure rehospitalization is positive. Reasonable heart rate control may significantly reduce the risk of heart failure rehospitalization.

Keywords: heart rate control levels, heart failure rehospitalization, persistent atrial fibrillation, retrospective cohort study

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Authors: Dieudonne Uwizeye, Reuben Muhayiteto

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Teenage pregnancy is a challenging problem for sustainable development due to restrictions it poses to socioeconomic opportunities for young mothers, their children and families. Being unable to take appropriate economic and social responsibilities, teen mothers get trapped into poverty and become economic burden to their family and country. Besides, teenage pregnancy is also a health problem because children born to very young mothers are vulnerable with greater risk of illnesses and deaths, and teenage mothers are more likely to be exposed to greater risk of maternal mortality and to other health and psychological problems. In Kigali city, in Rwanda, teenage pregnancy rate is currently high and its increase in recent years is worrisome. However, only individual factors influencing the teenage pregnancy tend to be the basis of interventions. It is important to understand the important socioeconomic factors at the household level that are associated with teenage pregnancy to help government, parents, and other stakeholders to appropriately address the problem with sustainable measures. This study analyzed secondary data from the Fifth Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey (RDHS-V 2014-2015) conducted by the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR). The aim was to examine household socio-economic factors that are associated with incidence of teenage pregnancies in Kigali city. In addition to descriptive analysis, Pearson’s Chi Square and Binary Logistic Regression were used in the analysis. Findings indicate that marital status and age of household head, number of members in a household, number of rooms used for sleeping, educational level of the household head and household's wealth are significantly associated with teenage pregnancy in Rwanda ( p< 0.05). It was found that teenagers living with parents, those having parents with higher education and those from richer families are less likely to become pregnant. Age of household head was pinpointed as factor to teenage pregnancy, with teenage-headed households being more vulnerable. The findings also revealed that household composition correlates with the probability of teenage pregnancy (p < 0.05) with teenagers from households with less number of members being more vulnerable. Regarding the size of the house, the study suggested that the more rooms available in households, the less incidences of teenage pregnancy are likely to be observed (p < 0.05). However, teenage pregnancy was not significantly associated with physical violence among parents (p = 0.65) and sex of household heads (p = 0.52), except in teen-headed households of which female are predominantly heads. The study concludes that teenage pregnancy remains a serious social, economic and health problem in Rwanda. The study informs government officials, parents and other stakeholders to take interventions and preventive measures through community sex education, policies and strategies to foster effective parental guidance, care and control of young girls through meeting their necessary social and financial needs within households.

Keywords: household socio-economic factors, Rwanda, Rwanda demographic and health survey, teenage pregnancy

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Authors: Nurul Noraziemah Mohd Pauzi, Muhammad Fauzi Mohd Zain

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The rapid advance in the electronic industry has led to the increase amount of the waste cathode ray tube (CRT) devices. The management of CRT waste upon disposal haves become a major issue of environmental concern as it contains toxic elements (i.e. lead, barium, zinc, etc.) which has a risk of leaching if it is not managed appropriately. Past studies have reported regarding the possible use of CRT glass as a part of aggregate in concrete production. However, incorporating waste CRT glass may present an environmental risk via leachability of toxic elements. Accordingly, the preventive measures for reducing the risk was proposed. The current work presented the experimental results regarding potential leaching of toxic elements from four types of concrete mixed, each compromising waste CRT glass as coarse aggregate with different shape and properties. Concentrations of detected elements are measure in the leachates by using atomic absorption spectrometry (AAS). Results indicate that the concentration of detected elements were found to be below applicable risk, despite the higher content of toxic elements in CRT glass. Therefore, the used of waste CRT glass as coarse aggregate in hardened concrete does not pose any risk of leachate of heavy metals to the environment.

Keywords: recycled CRT glass, coarse aggregate, physical properties, leaching, toxic elements

Procedia PDF Downloads 356

Authors: Aida Alemany, Laura Ballester, Ana González-Urteaga

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From 2007 subprime crisis to the recent Eurozone debt crisis the European banking industry has experienced a terrible financial instability situation with increasing levels of CDS spreads (used as a proxy of credit risk). This paper investigates whether volatility transmission channels in European banking markets have changed after three significant crises’ events during the period January 2006 to March 2013. The global financial crisis is characterized by a unidirectional volatility shocks spillovers effect in credit risk from inside to outside the Eurozone. By contrast, the Eurozone debt crisis is revealed to be local in nature with the euro as the key element suggesting a market fragmentation between distressed peripheral and non-distressed core Eurozone countries, whereas retaining the local currency have acted as a firewall. With these findings we are able to shed light on the impact of the different crises on the European banking credit risk dynamics.

Keywords: CDS spreads, credit risk, volatility spillovers, financial crisis

Procedia PDF Downloads 466

Authors: Hadi Abdollahi, Bijan Iraj, Maryam Mirpourian, Behzad Shariatifar

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Background: The aim of the present study was to determine the relationship between neck circumferences (NC), as an indicator of upper body obesity, with anthropometric and cardio-metabolic factors among the first degree relatives of diabetes patients. Materials and Methods: This cross-sectional study was performed on first degree relatives of diabetes patients (n = 213). Weight, height, waist circumference (WC), hip circumference (HC), systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and NC were measured. Laboratory data included oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) results, high density lipoprotein (HDL), low density lipoprotein, triglyceride (TG) and total cholesterol. Results: There was no difference in NC among different results of OGTT in men or women. Factors including weight, body mass index (BMI), WC and HC were strongly associated with NC in both genders (r = 0.420-0.711). NC was weakly associated with SBP in women (r = 0.195) and moderately with DBP in men (r = 0.314). Regarding lipid profile, HDL and TG were associated with NC only in women (r = −0.268-0.325). Conclusions: NC has a significant correlation with gender and anthropometric variables, including BMI, weight and waist and HCs in both men and women, but it does not differ significantly in patients with different status in OGTT.

Keywords: body mass index, cardiovascular, diabetes, neck circumference, obesity

Procedia PDF Downloads 74

Authors: Yawen Xia, Rubi Yang, Jing Zhao

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By using the Reputation Risk Index (RRI) to measure company environmental, social, and governance (ESG) activities, this research studies firms’ ESG comovement with their industry and local peers. This comovement is attenuated during the Covid-19 pandemic. Further analysis shows that corporate governance plays an important role in comovement decrease. We classify companies by region (city, state, region) and industry and calculate the average RRI of companies of the same type. We run separate regressions to test 1) industry comovement; 2) local comovement; 3) Covid-19 pandemic and reputation risk comovement; 4) corporate governance and reputation risk comovement. Our findings are consistent with previous literature that companies follow their industry and local counterparts in engaging in irresponsible activities and reducing ESG engagement. We speculate Covid shock led to a reduction in social activities and information sharing among enterprise managers, and comovement between enterprises, as a result, decreased during the pandemic.

Keywords: ESG, Covid, peer pressure, local comovement, corporate governance

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: Szu-Hua Wang

Abstract:

Urban ecosystems, as complex coupled human-environment systems, contain abundant natural resources for breeding natural assets and, at the same time, attract urban assets and consume natural resources, triggered by urban development. Land use change illustrates the interaction between human activities and environments factually. However, IPCC (2014) announces that land use change and urbanization due to human activities are the major cause of climate change, leading to serious impacts on urban ecosystem resilience and risk. For this reason, risk assessment and resilience analysis are the keys for responding to climate change on urban ecosystems. Urban spatial planning can guide urban development by land use planning, transportation planning, and environmental planning and affect land use allocation and human activities by building major constructions and protecting important national land resources simultaneously. Urban spatial planning can aggravate climate change and, on the other hand, mitigate and adapt climate change. Research on effects of spatial planning on land use change and climate change is one of intense issues currently. Therefore, this research focuses on developing frameworks for risk assessment and resilience analysis from the aspect of ecosystem based on typhoon precipitation in Taipei area. The integrated method of risk assessment and resilience analysis will be also addressed for applying spatial planning practice and sustainable development.

Keywords: ecosystem, land use change, risk analysis, resilience

Procedia PDF Downloads 415