Search results for: Cox regression model

Authors: Kaisy Xinhong Ye, Su Lin Lim, Jialiang Li, Lei Feng

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background: Multiple healthful dietary patterns have been linked with dementia, but limited studies have looked at the role of diet in cognitive health in Asians whose eating habits are very different from their counterparts in the west. This study aimed to derive a dietary pattern that is associated with the risk of cognitive impairment (CI) in the Singaporean population. Method: The analysis was based on 719 community older adults aged 60 and above. Dietary intake was measured using a validated semi-quantitative food-frequency questionnaire (FFQ). Reduced rank regression (RRR) was used to extract dietary pattern from 45 food groups, specifying sugar, dietary fiber, vitamin A, calcium, and the ratio of polyunsaturated fat to saturated fat intake (P:S ratio) as response variables. The RRR-derived dietary patterns were subsequently investigated using multivariate logistic regression models to look for associations with the risk of CI. Results: A dietary pattern characterized by greater intakes of green leafy vegetables, red-orange vegetables, wholegrains, tofu, nuts, and lower intakes of biscuits, pastries, local sweets, coffee, poultry with skin, sugar added to beverages, malt beverages, roti, butter, and fast food was associated with reduced risk of CI [multivariable-adjusted OR comparing extreme quintiles, 0.29 (95% CI: 0.11, 0.77); P-trend =0.03]. This pattern was positively correlated with P:S ratio, vitamin A, and dietary fiber and negatively correlated with sugar. Conclusion: A dietary pattern providing high P:S ratio, vitamin A and dietary fiber, and a low level of sugar may reduce the risk of cognitive impairment in old age. The findings have significance in guiding local Singaporeans to dementia prevention through food-based dietary approaches.

Keywords: dementia, cognitive impairment, diet, nutrient, elderly

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Authors: Jeeban Amgain

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This paper investigates the impact of the size and composition of government expenditure and tax on GDP per capita growth in 36 Asian economies over the period of 1991-2012. The research employs the technique of panel regression; Fixed Effects and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) as well as other statistical and descriptive approaches. The finding concludes that the size of government expenditure and tax revenue are generally low in this region. GDP per capita growth is strongly negative in response to Government expenditure, however, no significant relationship can be measured in case of size of taxation although it is positively correlated with economic growth. Panel regression of decomposed fiscal components also shows that the pattern of allocation of expenditure and taxation really matters on growth. Taxes on international trade and property have a significant positive impact on growth. In contrast, a major portion of expenditure, i.e. expenditure on general public services, health and education are found to have significant negative impact on growth, implying that government expenditures are not being productive in the Asian region for some reasons. Comparatively smaller and efficient government size would enhance the growth.

Keywords: government expenditure, tax, GDP per capita growth, composition

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Authors: Javier E. García-Gallo, Nelson J. Fonseca-Ruiz, John F. Duitama-Munoz

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Sepsis is a syndrome that occurs with physiological and biochemical abnormalities induced by severe infection and carries a high mortality and morbidity, therefore the severity of its condition must be interpreted quickly. After patient admission in an intensive care unit (ICU), it is necessary to synthesize the large volume of information that is collected from patients in a value that represents the severity of their condition. Traditional severity of illness scores seeks to be applicable to all patient populations, and usually assess in-hospital mortality. However, the use of machine learning techniques and the data of a population that shares a common characteristic could lead to the development of customized mortality prediction scores with better performance. This study presents the development of a score for the one-year mortality prediction of the patients that are admitted to an ICU with a sepsis diagnosis. 5650 ICU admissions extracted from the MIMICIII database were evaluated, divided into two groups: 70% to develop the score and 30% to validate it. Comorbidities, demographics and clinical information of the first 24 hours after the ICU admission were used to develop a mortality prediction score. LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) and SGB (Stochastic Gradient Boosting) variable importance methodologies were used to select the set of variables that make up the developed score; each of this variables was dichotomized and a cut-off point that divides the population into two groups with different mean mortalities was found; if the patient is in the group that presents a higher mortality a one is assigned to the particular variable, otherwise a zero is assigned. These binary variables are used in a logistic regression (LR) model, and its coefficients were rounded to the nearest integer. The resulting integers are the point values that make up the score when multiplied with each binary variables and summed. The one-year mortality probability was estimated using the score as the only variable in a LR model. Predictive power of the score, was evaluated using the 1695 admissions of the validation subset obtaining an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.7528, which outperforms the results obtained with Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Oxford Acute Severity of Illness Score (OASIS) and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPSII) scores on the same validation subset. Observed and predicted mortality rates within estimated probabilities deciles were compared graphically and found to be similar, indicating that the risk estimate obtained with the score is close to the observed mortality, it is also observed that the number of events (deaths) is indeed increasing as the outcome go from the decile with the lowest probabilities to the decile with the highest probabilities. Sepsis is a syndrome that carries a high mortality, 43.3% for the patients included in this study; therefore, tools that help clinicians to quickly and accurately predict a worse prognosis are needed. This work demonstrates the importance of customization of mortality prediction scores since the developed score provides better performance than traditional scoring systems.

Keywords: intensive care, logistic regression model, mortality prediction, sepsis, severity of illness, stochastic gradient boosting

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Authors: Fatemeh Abdollahi, Munn-Sann Lye, Jamshid Yazdani Charati, Mehran Zarghami

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Fathers are at risk of depression during the postpartum period. Some studies have been reported maternal depression is the key predictor of paternal postpartum depression (PPD). This study aimed to estimate the prevalence and predictors of parental PPD and its association with maternal PPD. In a cross-sectional study, via a stratified random and convenience sampling method, participants referring to health centers during 2-8 weeks postpartum were recruited from March to October 2017. Paternal PPD and its relation to maternal PPD and other related factors were assessed using multiple logistic regression. Participants were 591 literate couples who referred to Mazandaran province primary health centers during to study period. Couples were screened for depression using Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS). Fathers provided information on socio-demographic characteristics, life events, neonatal stressor, perceived stress (Perceived Stress Scale), social support (Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support), and general health status using General Health Questionnaire (GHQ) as well. Data on mothers ‘demographic characteristics and obstetrics factors was also gathered. Overall, 93 fathers (15.7%) and 188 mothers (31.8%) reported depressive symptoms above the cut-off EPDS score of 12. In the multiple logistic regression model, older age [OR=1.20, (95%CI: 1.05- 1.36)], maternal depressive symptoms [OR=1.15, (95%CI: 1.04-1.27)], higher GHQ scores [OR=1.21, (95%CI: 1.11-1.33)] and increased recent life events [OR=1.42, (95%CI: 1.01-1.2.00)] were related to paternal PPD. A significant inverse association was found between number of children and paternal PPD [OR=0.20, (95%CI: 0.07-0.53)]. Depressive symptoms, especially in first-time fathers following the birth of a child, are not uncommon. Maternal depressive symptoms and paternal well-being were strong predictors of parental PPD. Creating opportunities for men to access special health care services, parental education to help adapting to parenthood, screening programs, and psychiatric/psychosocial interventions to decrease the suffering of depression for both depressed parents are recommended.

Keywords: depression, men, postpartum, risk factors, women

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Authors: Davod Ahmadigheidari

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The main objective of this study was to explore prevalence of anthropometric indicators as well the factors associated with the anthropometric indications in Mali. Data on 2015, downloaded from the website of Unicef, were analyzed. A total of 16,467 women (ages 15-49 years) and 16,467 children (ages 0-59 months) were selected for the sample. Different statistical analyses, such as descriptive, crosstabs and binary logistic regression form the basis of this study. Child anthropometric indicators (i.e., wasting, stunting, underweight and BMI for age) were used as the dependent variables. SPSS Syntax from WHO was used to create anthropometric indicators. Different factors, such as child’s sex, child’s age groups, child’s diseases symptoms (i.e., diarrhea, cough and fever), maternal education, household wealth index and area of residence were used as independent variables. Results showed more than forty percent of Malian households were in nutritional crises (stunting (42%) and underweight (34%). Findings from logistic regression analyses indicated that low score of wealth index, low maternal education and experience of diarrhea in last two weeks increase the probability of child malnutrition.

Keywords: Mali, wasting, stunting, underweight, BMI for age and wealth index

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Authors: Naser Zourikalatehsamad, Seyed Abdorreza Payambarpour, Ibrahim Alwashali, Zahra Abdolkarimi

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The paper aims to evaluate the effect of online advertising on consumer purchase behavior in Malaysian organizations. The paper has potential to extend and refine theory. A survey was distributed among Students of UTM university during the winter 2014 and 160 responses were collected. Regression analysis was used to test the hypothesized relationships of the model. Result shows that the predictors (cost saving factor, convenience factor and customized product or services) have positive impact on intention to continue seeking online advertising.

Keywords: consumer purchase, convenience, customized product, cost saving, customization, flow theory, mass communication, online advertising ads, online advertising measurement, online advertising mechanism, online intelligence system, self-confidence, willingness to purchase

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Authors: Prateek Singh, Dilshad Ahmad

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Growing demand for high-quality steel products has inspired researchers to investigate the unit operations involved in the manufacturing of these products (slabs, rods, sheets, etc.). One such operation is tundish operation, in which a vessel (tundish) acts as a buffer of molten steel for the solidification operation in mold. It is observed that tundish also plays a crucial role in the quality and cleanliness of the steel produced, besides merely acting as a reservoir for the mold. It facilitates removal of dissolved oxygen (inclusions) from the molten steel thus improving its cleanliness. Inclusion removal can be enhanced by increasing the residence time of molten steel in the tundish by incorporation of flow modifiers like dams, weirs, turbo-pad, etc. These flow modifiers also help in reducing the dead or short circuit zones within the tundish which is significant for maintaining thermal and chemical homogeneity of molten steel. Thus, it becomes important to analyze the flow of molten steel in the tundish for different configuration of flow modifiers. In the present work, effect of varying positions and heights/depths of dam and weir on the dead volume in tundish is studied. Steady state thermal and flow profiles of molten steel within the tundish are obtained using OpenFOAM. Subsequently, Residence Time Distribution analysis is performed to obtain the percentage of dead volume in the tundish. Design of Experiment method is then used to configure different tundish geometries for varying positions and heights/depths of dam and weir, and dead volume for each tundish design is obtained. A second-degree polynomial with two-term interactions of independent variables to predict the dead volume in the tundish with positions and heights/depths of dam and weir as variables are computed using Multiple Linear Regression model. This polynomial is then used in an optimization framework to obtain the optimal tundish geometry for minimizing dead volume using Sequential Quadratic Programming optimization.

Keywords: design of experiments, multiple linear regression, OpenFOAM, residence time distribution, sequential quadratic programming optimization, steel, tundish

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Authors: M. A. C. S. Sampath Fernando, James M. Curran, Renate Meyer

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Model assessment, in the Bayesian context, involves evaluation of the goodness-of-fit and the comparison of several alternative candidate models for predictive accuracy and improvements. In posterior predictive checks, the data simulated under the fitted model is compared with the actual data. Predictive model accuracy is estimated using information criteria such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the Deviance information criterion (DIC), and the Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC). The goal of an information criterion is to obtain an unbiased measure of out-of-sample prediction error. Since posterior checks use the data twice; once for model estimation and once for testing, a bias correction which penalises the model complexity is incorporated in these criteria. Cross-validation (CV) is another method used for examining out-of-sample prediction accuracy. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) is the most computationally expensive variant among the other CV methods, as it fits as many models as the number of observations. Importance sampling (IS), truncated importance sampling (TIS) and Pareto-smoothed importance sampling (PSIS) are generally used as approximations to the exact LOO-CV and utilise the existing MCMC results avoiding expensive computational issues. The reciprocals of the predictive densities calculated over posterior draws for each observation are treated as the raw importance weights. These are in turn used to calculate the approximate LOO-CV of the observation as a weighted average of posterior densities. In IS-LOO, the raw weights are directly used. In contrast, the larger weights are replaced by their modified truncated weights in calculating TIS-LOO and PSIS-LOO. Although, information criteria and LOO-CV are unable to reflect the goodness-of-fit in absolute sense, the differences can be used to measure the relative performance of the models of interest. However, the use of these measures is only valid under specific circumstances. This study has developed 11 models using normal, log-normal, gamma, and student’s t distributions to improve the PCR stutter prediction with forensic data. These models are comprised of four with profile-wide variances, four with locus specific variances, and three which are two-component mixture models. The mean stutter ratio in each model is modeled as a locus specific simple linear regression against a feature of the alleles under study known as the longest uninterrupted sequence (LUS). The use of AIC, BIC, DIC, and WAIC in model comparison has some practical limitations. Even though, IS-LOO, TIS-LOO, and PSIS-LOO are considered to be approximations of the exact LOO-CV, the study observed some drastic deviations in the results. However, there are some interesting relationships among the logarithms of pointwise predictive densities (lppd) calculated under WAIC and the LOO approximation methods. The estimated overall lppd is a relative measure that reflects the overall goodness-of-fit of the model. Parallel log-likelihood profiles for the models conditional on equal posterior variances in lppds were observed. This study illustrates the limitations of the information criteria in practical model comparison problems. In addition, the relationships among LOO-CV approximation methods and WAIC with their limitations are discussed. Finally, useful recommendations that may help in practical model comparisons with these methods are provided.

Keywords: cross-validation, importance sampling, information criteria, predictive accuracy

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Authors: M. Ben Slimene, M.-S. Ouali

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Asset management of urban infrastructures faces a multitude of challenges that need to be overcome to obtain a reliable measurement of performances. Predicting the performance of slowly aging systems is one of those challenges, which helps the asset manager to investigate specific failure modes and to undertake the appropriate maintenance and rehabilitation interventions to avoid catastrophic failures as well as to optimize the maintenance costs. This article presents a methodology for modeling the deterioration of slowly degrading assets based on an operating history. It consists of extracting degradation profiles by grouping together assets that exhibit similar degradation sequences using an unsupervised classification technique derived from artificial intelligence. The obtained clusters are used to build the performance prediction models. This methodology is applied to a sample of a stormwater drainage culvert dataset.

Keywords: artificial Intelligence, clustering, culvert, regression model, slow degradation

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Authors: Jeffrey Tzu-Hao Tsai, Yi-Shan Wong

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This article proposes a cohort-age-period (CAP) model to characterize multi-population mortality processes using cohort, age, and period variables. Distinct from the factor-based Lee-Carter-type decomposition mortality model, this approach is empirically based and includes the age, period, and cohort variables into the equation system. The model not only provides a fruitful intuition for explaining multivariate mortality change rates but also has a better performance in forecasting future patterns. Using the US and the UK mortality data and performing ten-year out-of-sample tests, our approach shows smaller mean square errors in both countries compared to the models in the literature.

Keywords: longevity risk, stochastic mortality model, multivariate mortality rate, risk management

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Authors: Hadi Farhadian, Homayoon Katibeh

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Groundwater inflow to the tunnels is one of the most important problems in tunneling operation. The objective of this study is the investigation of model dimension effects on tunnel inflow assessment in discontinuous rock masses using numerical modeling. In the numerical simulation, the model dimension has an important role in prediction of water inflow rate. When the model dimension is very small, due to low distance to the tunnel border, the model boundary conditions affect the estimated amount of groundwater flow into the tunnel and results show a very high inflow to tunnel. Hence, in this study, the two-dimensional universal distinct element code (UDEC) used and the impact of different model parameters, such as tunnel radius, joint spacing, horizontal and vertical model domain extent has been evaluated. Results show that the model domain extent is a function of the most significant parameters, which are tunnel radius and joint spacing.

Keywords: water inflow, tunnel, discontinues rock, numerical simulation

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Authors: Hamed Rashid Sarand, Kemal Selçuk Öğüt

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Speed is one of the fundamental variables of road traffic flow that stands as an important evaluation criterion for traffic analyses in several aspects. In particular, varieties of speed variable, such as average speed, free flow speed, optimum speed (capacity speed), acceleration/deceleration speed and so on, have been explicitly considered in the analysis of not only road safety but also road capacity. In the purpose of realizing 'road speed – maximum speed difference across lanes' and 'road flow rate – maximum speed difference across lanes' relations on freeway traffic, this study presents a case study conducted on a basic freeway segment of O-2 in Istanbul. The traffic data employed in this study have been obtained from 5 remote traffic microwave sensors operated by Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality. The study stretch is located between two successive freeway interchanges: Ümraniye and Kavacık. Daily traffic data of 4 years (2011-2014) summer months, July and August are used. The speed data are analyzed into two main flow areas such as uncongested and congested flows. In this study, the regression analyses were carried out in order to examine the relationship between maximum speed difference across lanes and road speed. These investigations were implemented at uncongested and congested flows, separately. Moreover, the relationship between maximum speed difference across lanes and road flow rate were evaluated by applying regression analyses for both uncongested and congested flows separately. It is concluded that there is the moderate relationship between maximum speed difference across lanes and road speed in 50% cases. Additionally, it is indicated that there is the moderate relationship between maximum speed difference across lanes and road flow rate in 30% cases. The maximum speed difference across lanes decreases as the road flow rate increases.

Keywords: maximum speed difference, regression analysis, remote traffic microwave sensor, speed differentiation, traffic flow

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Authors: Michelle R. Sullivan

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Positive romantic relationships and marriages offer a buffer against a host of physical and emotional difficulties. Conversely, poor relationship quality and marital discord can have deleterious consequences for individuals and families. Research has described non-monogamy, infidelity, and consensual non-monogamy, as both consequential and causal of relationship difficulty, or as a unique way a couple strives to make a relationship work. Much research on consensual non-monogamy has built on feminist theory and critique. To the author’s best knowledge, to date, no studies have examined the predictive relationship between individual and relationship characteristics and expectations of non-monogamy. The current longitudinal study: 1) estimated the prevalence of expectations of partner non-monogamy and 2) evaluated whether gender, sexual identity, age, education, how a couple met, and relationship quality were predictive expectations of partner non-monogamy. This study utilized the publically available longitudinal dataset, How Couples Meet and Stay Together. Adults aged 18- to 98-years old (n=4002) were surveyed by phone over 5 waves from 2009-2014. Demographics and how a couple met were gathered through self-report in Wave 1, and relationship quality and expectations of partner non-monogamy were gathered through self-report in Waves 4 and 5 (n=1047). The prevalence of expectations of partner non-monogamy (encompassing both infidelity and consensual non-monogamy) was 4.8%. Logistic regression models indicated that sexual identity, gender, education, and relationship quality were significantly predictive of expectations of partner non-monogamy. Specifically, male gender, lower education, identifying as lesbian, gay, or bisexual, and a lower relationship quality scores were predictive of expectations of partner non-monogamy. Male gender was not predictive of expectations of partner non-monogamy in the follow up logistic regression model. Age and whether a couple met online were not associated with expectations of partner non-monogamy. Clinical implications include awareness of the increased likelihood of lesbian, gay, and bisexual individuals to have an expectation of non-monogamy and the sequelae of relationship dissatisfaction that may be related. Future research directions could differentiate between non-monogamy subtypes and the person and relationship variables that lead to the likelihood of consensual non-monogamy and infidelity as separate constructs, as well as explore the relationship between predicting partner behavior and actual partner behavioral outcomes.

Keywords: open relationship, polyamory, infidelity, relationship satisfaction

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Authors: Tatsuya Yamazaki, Kazuya Miyakawa, Tomohiko Sugiyama, Toshitaka Iwatani

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The introduction of sensor technologies into agriculture is a necessary step to realize Precision Agriculture. Although sensing methodologies themselves have been prevailing owing to miniaturization and reduction in costs of sensors, there are some difficulties to analyze and understand the sensing data. Targeting at pears ’Le Lectier’, which is particular to Niigata in Japan, cultivation environmental data have been collected at pear fields by eight sorts of sensors: field temperature, field humidity, rain gauge, soil water potential, soil temperature, soil moisture, inner-bag temperature, and inner-bag humidity sensors. With regard to the inner-bag temperature and humidity sensors, they are used to measure the environment inside the fruit bag used for pre-harvest bagging of pears. In this experiment, three kinds of fruit bags were used for the pre-harvest bagging. After over 100 days continuous measurement, volumes of sensing data have been collected. Firstly, correlation analysis among sensing data measured by respective sensors reveals that one sensor can replace another sensor so that more efficient and cost-saving sensing systems can be proposed to pear farmers. Secondly, differences in characteristic and performance of the three kinds of fruit bags are clarified by the measurement results by the inner-bag environmental sensing. It is found that characteristic and performance of the inner-bags significantly differ from each other by statistical analysis. Lastly, a relational model between the sensing data and the pear outlook quality is established by use of Structural Equation Model (SEM). Here, the pear outlook quality is related with existence of stain, blob, scratch, and so on caused by physiological impair or diseases. Conceptually SEM is a combination of exploratory factor analysis and multiple regression. By using SEM, a model is constructed to connect independent and dependent variables. The proposed SEM model relates the measured sensing data and the pear outlook quality determined on the basis of farmer judgement. In particularly, it is found that the inner-bag humidity variable relatively affects the pear outlook quality. Therefore, inner-bag humidity sensing might help the farmers to control the pear outlook quality. These results are supported by a large quantity of inner-bag humidity data measured over the years 2014, 2015, and 2016. The experimental and analytical results in this research contribute to spreading Precision Agriculture technologies among the farmers growing ’Le Lectier’.

Keywords: precision agriculture, pre-harvest bagging, sensor fusion, structural equation model

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Authors: Mohammad Rahim Rahnama

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The study employs Monte Carlo method for simulation of rented housing in Mashhad second largest city in Iran. A total number of 334 rental residential units in Mashhad, including both apartments and houses (villa), were randomly selected from advertisements placed in Khorasan Newspapers during the months of July and August of 2015. In order to simulate the monthly rent price, the rent index was calculated through combining the mortgage and the rent price. In the next step, the relation between the variables of the floor area and that of the number of bedrooms for each unit, in both apartments and houses(villa), was calculated through multivariate regression using SPSS and was coded in XML. The initial model was called using simulation button in SPSS and was simulated using triangular and binominal algorithms. The findings revealed that the average simulated rental index was 548.5$ per month. Calculating the sensitivity of rental index to a number of bedrooms we found that firstly, 97% of units have three bedrooms, and secondly as the number of bedrooms increases from one to three, for the rent price of less than 200$, the percentage of units having one bedroom decreases from 10% to 0. Contrariwise, for units with the rent price of more than 571.4$, the percentage of bedrooms increases from 37% to 48%. In the light of these findings, it becomes clear that planning to build rental residential units, overseeing the rent prices, and granting subsidies to rental residential units, for apartments with two bedrooms, present a felicitous policy for regulating residential units in Mashhad.

Keywords: Mashhad, Monte Carlo, simulation, rent price, residential unit

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Authors: Emmanuel Ukpe, S. M. F. D. Syed Mustapha

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Trust in an organization has been perceived as one of the key factors behind knowledge sharing, mainly in an unstructured work environment. In an informal working environment, to instill trust among individuals is a challenge and even more in the virtual environment. The study has contributed in developing the framework for building trust in an unstructured organization in performing knowledge sharing in a virtual environment. The artifact called KAPE (Knowledge Acquisition, Processing, and Exchange) was developed for knowledge sharing for the informal organization where the framework was incorporated. It applies to Cassava farmers to facilitate knowledge sharing using web-based platform. A survey was conducted; data were collected from 382 farmers from 21 farm communities. Multiple regression technique, Cronbach’s Alpha reliability test; Tukey’s Honestly significant difference (HSD) analysis; one way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), and all trust acceptable measures (TAM) were used to test the hypothesis and to determine noteworthy relationships. The results show a significant difference when there is a trust in knowledge sharing between farmers, the ones who have high in trust acceptable factors found in the model (M = 3.66 SD = .93) and the ones who have low on trust acceptable factors (M = 2.08 SD = .28), (t (48) = 5.69, p = .00). Furthermore, when applying Cognitive Expectancy Theory, the farmers with cognitive-consonance show higher level of trust and satisfaction with knowledge and information from KAPE, as compared with a low level of cognitive-dissonance. These results imply that the adopted trust model KAPE positively improved knowledge sharing activities in an informal environment amongst rural farmers.

Keywords: trust, knowledge, sharing, knowledge acquisition, processing and exchange, KAPE

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Authors: Fazeelat Duran, Darren Bishopp, Jessica Woodhams

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Psychological contract refers to the perceptions of an employee and their employer regarding their mutual obligations towards each other. The rationale for applying the psychological contract theory in UK policing was to investigate its impact on their wellbeing because the psychological contract is a useful tool in identifying factors having a negative effect on the wellbeing of employees. The paper will report on a study, which examined how occupational stressors and psychological contract violation may influence the wellbeing (e.g. Physical Stress and General Health) of a sample of police officers (N=127). The design of the study was cross-sectional and based on data collected through a self-report survey. The results of hierarchical regression analyses and structural equation model, suggest that occupational stressors and psychological contract violation play a critical role in both physical and psychological health. The implications of these findings and the utility of considering the psychological contract will be discussed.

Keywords: police officers, psychological contract, occupational stressors, wellbeing

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Authors: Kambiz Rasoulkhani, Jeanne Cole, Sybil Sharvelle, Ali Mostafavi

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Dual water distribution systems have been proposed as solutions to enhance the sustainability and resilience of urban water systems by improving performance and decreasing energy consumption. The objective of this study was to evaluate the long-term resilience and robustness of dual water distribution systems versus singular water distribution systems under various stressors such as demand fluctuation, aging infrastructure, and funding constraints. To this end, the long-term dynamics of these infrastructure systems was captured using a simulation model that integrates institutional agency decision-making processes with physical infrastructure degradation to evaluate the long-term transformation of water infrastructure. A set of model parameters that varies for dual and singular distribution infrastructure based on the system attributes, such as pipes length and material, energy intensity, water demand, water price, average pressure and flow rate, as well as operational expenditures, were considered and input in the simulation model. Accordingly, the model was used to simulate various scenarios of demand changes, funding levels, water price growth, and renewal strategies. The long-term resilience and robustness of each distribution infrastructure were evaluated based on various performance measures including network average condition, break frequency, network leakage, and energy use. An ecologically-based resilience approach was used to examine regime shifts and tipping points in the long-term performance of the systems under different stressors. Also, Classification and Regression Tree analysis was adopted to assess the robustness of each system under various scenarios. Using data from the City of Fort Collins, the long-term resilience and robustness of the dual and singular water distribution systems were evaluated over a 100-year analysis horizon for various scenarios. The results of the analysis enabled: (i) comparison between dual and singular water distribution systems in terms of long-term performance, resilience, and robustness; (ii) identification of renewal strategies and decision factors that enhance the long-term resiliency and robustness of dual and singular water distribution systems under different stressors.

Keywords: complex systems, dual water distribution systems, long-term resilience performance, multi-agent modeling, sustainable and resilient water systems

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Authors: Mahdi Shaghaghi, Amir Ghaebi, Fariba Ahmadi

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Purpose: The main purpose of the present research is to analyze the knowledge creation environment at a Iranian University (Alzahra University) as a typical University in Iran, using a combination of the i-System and Ba models. This study is necessary for understanding the determinants of knowledge creation at Alzahra University as a typical University in Iran. Methodology: To carry out the present research, which is an applied study in terms of purpose, a descriptive survey method was used. In this study, a combination of the i-System and Ba models has been used to analyze the knowledge creation environment at Alzahra University. i-System consists of 5 constructs including intervention (input), intelligence (process), involvement (process), imagination (process), and integration (output). The Ba environment has three pillars, namely the infrastructure, the agent, and the information. The integration of these two models resulted in 11 constructs which were as follows: intervention (input), infrastructure-intelligence, agent-intelligence, information-intelligence (process); infrastructure-involvement, agent-involvement, information-involvement (process); infrastructure-imagination, agent-imagination, information-imagination (process); and integration (output). These 11 constructs were incorporated into a 52-statement questionnaire and the validity and reliability of the questionnaire were examined and confirmed. The statistical population included the faculty members of Alzahra University (344 people). A total of 181 participants were selected through the stratified random sampling technique. The descriptive statistics, binomial test, regression analysis, and structural equation modeling (SEM) methods were also utilized to analyze the data. Findings: The research findings indicated that among the 11 research constructs, the levels of intervention, information-intelligence, infrastructure-involvement, and agent-imagination constructs were average and not acceptable. The levels of infrastructure-intelligence and information-imagination constructs ranged from average to low. The levels of agent-intelligence and information-involvement constructs were also completely average. The level of infrastructure-imagination construct was average to high and thus was considered acceptable. The levels of agent-involvement and integration constructs were above average and were in a highly acceptable condition. Furthermore, the regression analysis results indicated that only two constructs, viz. the information-imagination and agent-involvement constructs, positively and significantly correlate with the integration construct. The results of the structural equation modeling also revealed that the intervention, intelligence, and involvement constructs are related to the integration construct with the complete mediation of imagination. Discussion and conclusion: The present research suggests that knowledge creation at Alzahra University relatively complies with the combination of the i-System and Ba models. Unlike this model, the intervention, intelligence, and involvement constructs are not directly related to the integration construct and this seems to have three implications: 1) the information sources are not frequently used to assess and identify the research biases; 2) problem finding is probably of less concern at the end of studies and at the time of assessment and validation; 3) the involvement of others has a smaller role in the summarization, assessment, and validation of the research.

Keywords: i-System, Ba model , knowledge creation , knowledge management, knowledge creation environment, Iranian Universities

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Authors: Thien X. Dinh, Peter Witt

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A one-dimensional model for the simulation of condensation and solidification of a metallurgical vapor in the mixture of gas during supersonic expansion is presented. In the model, condensation is based on critical nucleation and drop-growth theory. When the temperature falls below the supercooling point, all the formed liquid droplets in the condensation phase are assumed to solidify at an infinite rate. The model was verified with a Computational Fluid Dynamics simulation of magnesium vapor condensation and solidification. The obtained results are in reasonable agreement with CFD data. Therefore, the model is a promising, efficient tool for use in the design process for supersonic nozzles applied in mineral processes since it is faster than the CFD counterpart by an order of magnitude.

Keywords: condensation, metallurgical flow, solidification, supersonic expansion

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Authors: Meriem Mossaddek, El Mehdi Laadissi, El Mehdi Loualid, Chouaib Ennawaoui, Sohaib Bouzaid, Abdelowahed Hajjaji

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An electrochemical system is a subset of mechatronic systems that includes a wide variety of batteries and nickel-cadmium, lead-acid batteries, and lithium-ion. Those structures have several non-linear behaviors and uncertainties in their running range. This paper studies an effective technique for modeling Lithium-Ion (Li-Ion) batteries using a Nonlinear Auto-Regressive model with exogenous input (NARX). The Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is trained to employ the data collected from the battery testing process. The proposed model is implemented on a Li-Ion battery cell. Simulation of this model in MATLAB shows good accuracy of the proposed model.

Keywords: lithium-ion battery, neural network, energy storage, battery model, nonlinear models

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Authors: Wondmnew Derebe Yohannis

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Farming irrigation plays a crucial role in rural development strategies, impacting both annual household income and livelihood. This research aims to evaluate the factors influencing irrigation participation and assess the impact of small-scale irrigation on rural households' annual income. The study collected data from 287 farmers in the Dahana district of northern Ethiopia. The research investigates the driving forces behind farmers' decisions to adopt small-scale irrigation and its effect on annual income gain. The findings reveal that several factors positively influence the probability of adoption, including access to credit, cultivated land size, livestock holding, extension contact, and the education level of the household head. Conversely, the distance to local markets and water schemes negatively affects the likelihood of adoption. To understand the differences in annual income between farm households that adopted irrigation and those that did not, a simultaneous equations model with endogenous switching regression is estimated. This accounts for the heterogeneity in the adoption decision and unobservable characteristics of farmers and their farms. The analysis compares the expected income gain under actual and counterfactual scenarios, considering whether the farm household adopted irrigation or not. The study reveals that the group of farm households that adopted irrigation has distinct characteristics compared to those that did not adopt it. Furthermore, the research demonstrates that the adoption of irrigation practices leads to an increase in annual income. Interestingly, the impact of small-scale irrigation on annual income is greater for the farm households that actually adopted irrigation compared to those in the counterfactual scenario where they did not adopt. Based on the findings, the researcher concludes that small-scale irrigation is a practical solution for meeting household financial needs in the study area. It is recommended that investments in small-scale irrigation continue to further improve the livelihoods of rural farming communities by enhancing annual income gains.

Keywords: small-scale irrigation, income, rural farm households, endogenous switching regression, user, non-user

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Authors: Hanna Gulema, Meaza Demissie, Alemayehu Worku, Tesfaye Assebe Yadeta, Yemane Berhane

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Background: In patriarchal societies, female caregivers decide on food allocation within a family based on prevailing gender and age norms, which may lead to inequality that does not favor young adolescent girls. This study evaluated the effect of a community-based social norm intervention involving female caregivers in West Hararghe, Ethiopia. The intervention was engaging female caregivers along with other adult influential community members to deliberate and act on food allocation social norms in a process referred to as Social Analysis and Action (SAA). Method: We used data from a large quasi-experimental study to compare family eating practices between those who participated in the Social Analyses and Action intervention and those who did not. The respondents were female caregivers in households with young adolescent girls (ages 13 and 14 years). The study’s outcome was the practice of family eating together from the same dish. The difference in difference (DID) analysis with the Mixed effect logistic regression model was used to examine the effect of the intervention. Result: The results showed improved family eating practices in both groups, but the improvement was greater in the intervention group. The DID analysis showed an 11.99 percentage points greater improvement in the intervention arm than in the control arm. The mixed-effect regression produced an adjusted odds ratio of 2.08 (95% CI [1.06–4.09]) after controlling selected covariates, p-value 0.033. Conclusions: The involvement of influential adult community members significantly improves the family practice of eating together in households where adolescent girls are present in our study. The intervention has great potential to minimize household food allocation inequalities and thus improve the nutritional status of young adolescents. Further studies are necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of the intervention in different social norm contexts to formulate policy and guidelines for scale-up.

Keywords: family eating practice, social norm intervention, adolescence girls, caregiver

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Authors: Rosa Hendijani, Mohammadhesam Hajighasemi

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As of late, the sharing economy has become an important type of business model. Online taxi services are one example that has grown rapidly around the world. This study examines the factors influencing the use of online taxis as one form of IT-enabled sharing services based on the theory of planned behavior (TPB). Based on the theory of planned behavior, these factors can be divided into three categories, including the ones related to attitude (e.g., image and perceived usefulness), normative believes (e.g., subjective norms), and behavioral control (e.g., technology facilitating conditions and self-efficacy). Three other factors were also considered based on the literature, including perceived economic benefits, openness towards using shared services, and perceived availability. The effect of all these variables was tested both directly and indirectly through intention as the mediating variable. A survey method was used to test the research hypotheses. In total, 361 individuals partook in the study. The results of a multiple regression analysis on behavior showed that perceived economic benefits, compatibility, and subjective norms were important factors influencing behavior among online taxi users. In addition, intention partially mediated the effect of perceived economic benefits and compatibility on behavior. It can be concluded that perceived economic benefits, compatibility, and subjective norms are the three main factors that influence behavior among online taxi users.

Keywords: collaborative consumption, IT-enabled sharing services model, online taxi, sharing economy, theory of planned behavior

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Authors: Asaiel Alohaly

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A theoretical framework for corporate governance is needed to bridge the gap between the corporate governance of private companies and State-owned Enterprises (SOEs). The two dominant models, being shareholder and stakeholder, do not always address the specific requirements and challenges posed by ‘hybrid’ companies; namely, previously national bodies that have been privatised bffu t where the government retains significant control or holds a majority of shareholders. Thus, an exploratory theoretical study is needed to identify how ‘hybrid’ companies should be defined and why the state model should be acknowledged since it is the less conspicuous model in comparison with the shareholder and stakeholder models. This research focuses on ‘the state model of corporate governance to understand the complex ownership, control pattern, goals, and corporate governance of these hybrid companies. The significance of this research lies in the fact that there is a limited available publication on the state model. The outcomes of this research are as follows. It became evident that the state model exists in the ecosystem. However, corporate governance theories have not extensively covered this model. Though, there is a lot being said about it by OECD and the World Bank. In response to this gap between theories and industry practice, this research argues for the state model, which proceeds from an understanding of the institutionally embedded character of hybrid companies where the government is either a majority of the total shares or a controlling shareholder.

Keywords: corporate governance, control, shareholders, state model

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Authors: Suryapeta Harini

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Road surface roughness is one of the essential aspects of the road's functional condition, indicating riding comfort in both the transverse and longitudinal directions. The government of India has made maintaining good surface evenness a prerequisite for all highway projects. Pavement distress data was collected with a Network Survey Vehicle (NSV) on a National Highway. It determines the smoothness and frictional qualities of the pavement surface, which are related to driving safety and ease. Based on the data obtained in the field, a regression equation was created with the IRI value and the visual distresses. The suggested system can use wireless acceleration sensors and GPS to gather vehicle status and location data, as well as calculate the international roughness index (IRI). Potholes, raveling, rut depth, cracked area, and repair work are all affected by pavement roughness, according to the current study. The study was carried out in one location. Data collected through using Bump integrator was used for the validation. The bump integrator (BI) obtained using deflection from the network survey vehicle was correlated with the distress parameter to establish an equation.

Keywords: roughness index, network survey vehicle, regression, correlation

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Authors: Kedwadee Sombultawee, Sakun Boon-Itt

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This research demonstrates a systematic literature review of 62 peer-reviewed articles published in academic journals from 2000-2016 focusing on the operation and marketing interface area. The findings show the three major clusters of recent research domains, which is a review of the alignment between operations and marketing, identification of variables that impact the company and analysis of the effect of interface. Moreover, the Main Path Analysis (MPA) is mapped to show the knowledge structure of the operation and marketing interface issue. Most of the empirical research focused on company performance and new product development then analyzed the data by the structural equation model or regression. Whereas, some scholars studied the conflict of these two functions and proposed the requirement or step for alignment. Finally, the gaps in the literature are provided for future research directions.

Keywords: operations management, marketing, interface, systematic literature review

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Authors: Waqas Ali

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Concrete is broadly used as a structural material in the construction of buildings. When the concrete is exposed to elevated temperature, its strength evaluation is very necessary in the existing structure. In this study, the effect of temperature and the reliability of the core test has been evaluated. For this purpose, the cylindrical cores were extracted from High strength concrete (HSC) specimens that were exposed to the temperature ranging from 300 ℃ to 900 ℃ with a constant duration of 4 hr. This study compares the difference between the standard heated cylinders and the cores taken from them after curing of 90 days. The difference of cylindrical control and binary mix samples and extracted cores revealed that there is 12.19 and 12.38% difference at 300℃, while this difference was found to increase up to 12.89%, 13.03% at 500 ℃. Furthermore, this value is recorded as 12.99%, 13.57% and 14.40%, 14.38% at 700 ℃ and 900 ℃, respectively. A total of four equations were developed through a regression model for the prediction of the strength of concrete for both standard cylinders and extracted cores whose R square values were 0.9733, 0.9627 and 0.9473, 0.9452, respectively.

Keywords: high strength, temperature, core, reliability

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Authors: Miguel Cañon, Darwin Mena, Ivan Cabeza

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In this work was compared and evaluated the applicability of statistical methods for the estimation of missing precipitations data in the basin of the river Lenguazaque located in the departments of Cundinamarca and Boyacá, Colombia. The methods used were the method of simple linear regression, distance rate, local averages, mean rates, correlation with nearly stations and multiple regression method. The analysis used to determine the effectiveness of the methods is performed by using three statistical tools, the correlation coefficient (r2), standard error of estimation and the test of agreement of Bland and Altmant. The analysis was performed using real rainfall values removed randomly in each of the seasons and then estimated using the methodologies mentioned to complete the missing data values. So it was determined that the methods with the highest performance and accuracy in the estimation of data according to conditions that were counted are the method of multiple regressions with three nearby stations and a random application scheme supported in the precipitation behavior of related data sets.

Keywords: statistical comparison, precipitation data, river subbasin, Bland and Altmant

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Authors: Vhahangwele Belemu, Isaac Busayo Oluwatayo

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Post-harvest losses pose a serious challenge to smallholder fruit crop farmers, especially in the rural communities of South Africa, affecting their economic livelihoods and food security. This study investigated the post-harvest handling practices and technologies harnessed by smallholder fruit crop farmers in the Vhembe district of Limpopo province, South Africa. Data were collected on a random sample of 224 smallholder fruit crop farmers selected from the four municipalities of the district using a multistage sampling technique. Analytical tools employed include descriptive statistics and the tobit regression model. A descriptive analysis of farmers’ socioeconomic characteristics showed that a sizeable number of these farmers are still in their active working age (mean = 52 years) with more males (63.8%) than their female (36.2%) counterparts. Respondents’ distribution by educational status revealed that only a few of these had no formal education (2.2%), with the majority having secondary education (48.7%). Results of data analysis further revealed that the prominent post-harvest technologies and handling practices harnessed by these farmers include using appropriate harvesting techniques (20.5%), selling at a reduced price (19.6%), transportation consideration (18.3%), cleaning and disinfecting (17.9%), sorting and grading (16.5%), manual cleaning (15.6%) and packaging technique (11.6%) among others. The result of the Tobit regression analysis conducted to examine the determinants of post-harvest technologies and handling practices harnessed showed that age, educational status of respondents, awareness of technology/handling practices, farm size, access to credit, extension contact, and membership of association were the significant factors. The study suggests enhanced awareness creation, access to credit facility and improved access to market as important factors to consider by relevant stakeholders to assist smallholder fruit crop farmers in the study area.

Keywords: fruit crop farmers, handling practices, post harvest losses, smallholder, Vhembe District, South Africa

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