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Authors: Luisa Kynast

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It is obvious that buildings and infrastructure are highly impacted by climate change (CC). Both, design and material of buildings need to be resilient to weather events in order to shelter humans, animals, or goods. As well as buildings and infrastructure are exposed to weather events, the construction process itself is generally carried out outdoors without being protected from extreme temperatures, heavy rain, or storms. The production process is restricted by technical limitations for processing materials with machines and physical limitations due to human beings (“outdoor-worker”). In future due to CC, average weather patterns are expected to change as well as extreme weather events are expected to occur more frequently and more intense and therefore have a greater impact on production processes and on the construction businesses itself. This research aims to examine this impact by analyzing an association between responses to CC and financial performance of businesses within the construction industry. After having embedded the above depicted field of research into the resource dependency theory, a literature review was conducted to expound the state of research concerning a contingent relation between climate change adaptation measures (CCAM) and corporate financial performance for construction businesses. The examined studies prove that this field is rarely investigated, especially for construction businesses. Therefore, reports of the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) were analyzed by applying content analysis using the software tool MAXQDA. 58 construction companies – located worldwide – could be examined. To proceed even more systematically a coding scheme analogous to findings in literature was adopted. Out of qualitative analysis, data was quantified and a regression analysis containing corporate financial data was conducted. The results gained stress adaptation measures as a response to CC as a crucial proxy to handle climate change impacts (CCI) by mitigating risks and exploiting opportunities. In CDP reports the majority of answers stated increasing costs/expenses as a result of implemented measures. A link to sales/revenue was rarely drawn. Though, CCAM were connected to increasing sales/revenues. Nevertheless, this presumption is supported by the results of the regression analysis where a positive effect of implemented CCAM on construction businesses´ financial performance in the short-run was ascertained. These findings do refer to appropriate responses in terms of the implemented number of CCAM. Anyhow, still businesses show a reluctant attitude for implementing CCAM, which was confirmed by findings in literature as well as by findings in CDP reports. Businesses mainly associate CCAM with costs and expenses rather than with an effect on their corporate financial performance. Mostly companies underrate the effect of CCI and overrate the costs and expenditures for the implementation of CCAM and completely neglect the pay-off. Therefore, this research shall create a basis for bringing CC to the (financial) attention of corporate decision-makers, especially within the construction industry.

Keywords: climate change adaptation measures, construction businesses, financial implication, resource dependency theory

Procedia PDF Downloads 117

Authors: Claudio Lamilla, Misael Riquelme, Victoria Saez, Fernanda Sepulveda, Monica Pavez, Leticia Barrientos

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Biosurfactants are compounds synthesized by microorganisms that show various chemical structures, including glycolipids, lipopeptides, polysaccharide-protein complex, phospholipids, and fatty acids. These molecules have attracted attention in recent years due to the amphipathic nature of these compounds, which allows their application in various activities related to emulsification, foaming, detergency, wetting, dispersion and solubilization of hydrophobic compounds. Microorganisms that produce biosurfactants are ubiquitous, not only present in water, soil, and sediments but in extreme conditions of pH, salinity or temperature such as those present in Antarctic ecosystems. Due to this, it is of interest to study biosurfactants producing bacterial strains isolated from Antarctic environments, with the potential to be used in various biotechnological processes. The objective of this research was to characterize biosurfactants produced by bacterial strains isolated from Antarctic environments, with potential use in biotechnological processes for the cleaning of sites contaminated with hydrocarbons. The samples were collected from soils and sediments in the South Shetland Islands and the Antarctic Peninsula, during the Antarctic Research Expedition INACH 2016, from both pristine and human occupied areas (influenced). The bacteria isolation was performed from solid R2A, M1 and LB media. The selection of strains producing biosurfactants was done by hemolysis test on blood agar plates (5%) and blue agar (CTAB). From 280 isolates, it was determined that 10 bacterial strains produced biosurfactants after stimulation with different carbon sources. 16S rDNA taxonomic markers, using the universal primers 27F-1492R, were used to identify these bacterias. Biosurfactants production was carried out in 250 ml flasks using Bushnell Hass liquid culture medium enriched with different carbon sources (olive oil, glucose, glycerol, and hexadecane) during seven days under constant stirring at 20°C. Each cell-free supernatant was characterized by physicochemical parameters including drop collapse, emulsification and oil displacement, as well as stability at different temperatures, salinity, and pH. In addition, the surface tension of each supernatant was quantified using a tensiometer. The strains with the highest activity were selected, and the production of biosurfactants was stimulated in six liters of culture medium. Biosurfactants were extracted from the supernatants with chloroform methanol (2:1). These biosurfactants were tested against crude oil and motor oil, to evaluate their displacement activity (detergency). The characterization by physicochemical properties of 10 supernatants showed that 80% of them produced the drop collapse, 60% had stability at different temperatures, and 90% had detergency activity in motor and olive oil. The biosurfactants obtained from two bacterial strains showed a high activity of dispersion of crude oil and motor oil with halos superior to 10 cm. We can conclude that bacteria isolated from Antarctic soils and sediments provide biological material of high quality for the production of biosurfactants, with potential applications in the biotechnological industry, especially in hydrocarbons -contaminated areas such as petroleum.

Keywords: antarctic, bacteria, biosurfactants, hydrocarbons

Procedia PDF Downloads 251

Authors: Cristobal García

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The visual inspection of bolted joints in wind turbines is dangerous, expensive, and impractical due to the non-possibility to access the platform by workboat in certain sea state conditions, as well as the high costs derived from the transportation of maintenance technicians to offshore platforms located far away from the coast, especially if helicopters are involved. Consequently, the wind turbine operators have the need for simpler and less demanding techniques for the analysis of the bolts tightening. Vibration-based structural health monitoring is one of the oldest and most widely-used means for monitoring the health of onshore and offshore wind turbines. The core of this work is to find out if the modal parameters can be efficiently used as a key performance indicator (KPIs) for the assessment of joint bolts in a 1:50 scale tower of a floating offshore wind turbine (12 MW). A non-destructive vibration test is used to extract the vibration signals of the towers with different damage statuses. The procedure can be summarized in three consecutive steps. First, an artificial excitation is introduced by means of a commercial shaker mounted on the top of the tower. Second, the vibration signals of the towers are recorded for 8 s at a sampling rate of 20 kHz using an array of commercial accelerometers (Endevco, 44A16-1032). Third, the natural frequencies, damping, and overall vibration mode shapes are calculated using the software Siemens LMS 16A. Experiments show that the natural frequencies, damping, and mode shapes of the tower are directly dependent on the fixing conditions of the towers, and therefore, the variations of both parameters are a good indicator for the estimation of the static axial force acting in the bolt. Thus, this vibration-based structural method proposed can be potentially used as a diagnostic tool to evaluate the tightening torques of the bolted joints with the advantages of being an economical, straightforward, and multidisciplinary approach that can be applied for different typologies of connections by operation and maintenance technicians. In conclusion, TSI, in collaboration with the consortium of the FIBREGY project, is conducting innovative research where vibrations are utilized for the estimation of the tightening torque of a 1:50 scale steel-based tower prototype. The findings of this research carried out in the context of FIBREGY possess multiple implications for the assessment of the bolted joint integrity in multiple types of connections such as tower-to-nacelle, modular, tower-to-column, tube-to-tube, etc. This research is contextualized in the framework of the FIBREGY project. The EU-funded FIBREGY project (H2020, grant number 952966) will evaluate the feasibility of the design and construction of a new generation of marine renewable energy platforms using lightweight FRP materials in certain structural elements (e.g., tower, floating platform). The FIBREGY consortium is composed of 11 partners specialized in the offshore renewable energy sector and funded partially by the H2020 program of the European Commission with an overall budget of 8 million Euros.

Keywords: SHM, vibrations, connections, floating offshore platform

Procedia PDF Downloads 91

Authors: Nilufer Turksoy

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Social media tools successfully connect people from different milieu to each other. This easy access allows politicians with populist attitude to circulate any kind of political opinion or message, which will hardly appear in conventional media. Populism is a relevant concept, especially, in political communication research. In the last decade, populism in social media has been researched extensively. The present study focuses on how social media is used as a playground by Turkish Cypriot politicians to perform populism in Northern Cyprus. It aims to determine and understand the relationship between politicians and social media, and how they employ social media in their political lives. Northern Cyprus’s multi-faced character provides politicians with many possible frames and topics they can make demagogy about ongoing political deadlock, international isolation, economic instability or social and cultural life in the north part of the island. Thus, Northern Cyprus, bizarrely branded as a 'no man's land', is a case par excellence to show how politically and economically unstable geographies are inclined to perform populism. Northern Cyprus is legally invalid territory recognized by no member of the international community other than Turkey and a phantom state, just like Abkhazia and South Ossetia or Nagorno-Karabakh. Five ideological key elements of populism are employed in the theoretical framework of this study: (1) highlighting the sovereignty of the people, (2) attacking the elites, (3) advocacy for the people, (4) excluding others, and (5) invoking the heartland. A qualitative text analysis of typical Facebook posts was conducted. Profiles of popular political leaders who occupy top positions (e.g. member of parliament, minister, chairman, party secretary), who have different political views, and who use their profiles for political expression on daily bases are selected. All official Facebook pages of the selected politicians are examined during a period of five months (1 September 2017-31 January 2018). This period is selected since it was prior to the parliamentary elections. Finding revealed that majority of the Turkish Cypriot politicians use their social media profile to propagate their political ideology in a populist fashion. Populist statements are found across parties. Facebook give especially the left-wing political actors the freedom to spread their messages in manipulative ways, mostly by using a satiric, ironic and slandering jargon that refers to the pseudo-state, the phantom state, the unrecognized Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus state. While most of the political leaders advocate for the people, invoking the heartland are preferred by right-wing politicians. A broad range of left-wing politicians predominantly conducted attack on the economic elites and ostracism of others. The finding concluded that different politicians use social media differently according to their political standpoint. Overall, the study offers a thorough analysis of populism on social media. Considering the large role social media plays in the daily life today, the finding will shed some light on the political influence of social media and the social media usage among politicians.

Keywords: Northern Cyprus, populism, politics, qualitative text analysis, social media

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Authors: David X. Dong, Qingming Zhang, Meng Lu

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Nitrites enter waterways as runoff from croplands and are discharged from many industrial sites. Excessive nitrite inputs to water bodies lead to eutrophication. On-site rapid detection of nitrite is of increasing interest for managing fertilizer application and monitoring water source quality. Existing methods for detecting nitrites use spectrophotometry, ion chromatography, electrochemical sensors, ion-selective electrodes, chemiluminescence, and colorimetric methods. However, these methods either suffer from high cost or provide low measurement accuracy due to their poor selectivity to nitrites. Therefore, it is desired to develop an accurate and economical method to monitor nitrites in environments. We report a low-cost optical sensor, in conjunction with a machine learning (ML) approach to enable high-accuracy detection of nitrites in water sources. The sensor works under the principle of measuring molecular absorptions of nitrites at three narrowband wavelengths (295 nm, 310 nm, and 357 nm) in the ultraviolet (UV) region. These wavelengths are chosen because they have relatively high sensitivity to nitrites; low-cost light-emitting devices (LEDs) and photodetectors are also available at these wavelengths. A regression model is built, trained, and utilized to minimize cross-sensitivities of these wavelengths to the same analyte, thus achieving precise and reliable measurements with various interference ions. The measured absorbance data is input to the trained model that can provide nitrite concentration prediction for the sample. The sensor is built with i) a miniature quartz cuvette as the test cell that contains a liquid sample under test, ii) three low-cost UV LEDs placed on one side of the cell as light sources, with each LED providing a narrowband light, and iii) a photodetector with a built-in amplifier and an analog-to-digital converter placed on the other side of the test cell to measure the power of transmitted light. This simple optical design allows measuring the absorbance data of the sample at the three wavelengths. To train the regression model, absorbances of nitrite ions and their combination with various interference ions are first obtained at the three UV wavelengths using a conventional spectrophotometer. Then, the spectrophotometric data are inputs to different regression algorithm models for training and evaluating high-accuracy nitrite concentration prediction. Our experimental results show that the proposed approach enables instantaneous nitrite detection within several seconds. The sensor hardware costs about one hundred dollars, which is much cheaper than a commercial spectrophotometer. The ML algorithm helps to reduce the average relative errors to below 3.5% over a concentration range from 0.1 ppm to 100 ppm of nitrites. The sensor has been validated to measure nitrites at three sites in Ames, Iowa, USA. This work demonstrates an economical and effective approach to the rapid, reagent-free determination of nitrites with high accuracy. The integration of the low-cost optical sensor and ML data processing can find a wide range of applications in environmental monitoring and management.

Keywords: optical sensor, regression model, nitrites, water quality

Procedia PDF Downloads 47

Authors: Rebeca P Ramos-Bueno, Maria Jose Gonzalez-Fernandez, Rosa M. Moreno-Zamora, Antonia Barros Heras, Yolanda Serrano Alonso, Carolina Sanchez Barranco

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Insects are a new source of fatty acids (FA), so they are considered a sustainable and environmentally friendly alternative for both animal feed and the human diet, and furthermore, their harvesting/rearing require a low-tech and low capital investment. For that reason, lipids obtained by insect breeding open interesting possibilities with alimentary and industrial purposes, i.e., the production of biodiesel. Particularly, certain insect species, especially during the larval stage, contain high proportions of fat which is highly dependent on their feed and stage of development. Among them, Hermetia illucens larvae can be bred on food wastes to produce fat- and protein-rich raw materials for food by-product management. So, insects can act as excellent bioconverters of organic waste to nutrient-rich materials. In this regard, the aim of the study was to evaluate the effects of fruit byproducts on the FA compositions of Tenebrio molitor, Zophoba morio, and H. illucens larvae. Firstly, oil was extracted with the green solvent ethyl acetate, and FA methyl ester was obtained and analyzed by GC to show the FA profile. In addition, the triacylglycerol (TAG) profile was obtained by HPLC. Dehydrated watermelon, tomato, and papaya by-products, as well as wheat-based control feed, were assayed. High FA content was reached by Z. morio larvae fed with all fruits; however, no differences were shown in lipid profile with any change. It is worth highlighting that both Z. morio and H. illucens could be selected as the best candidates for biodiesel production due to their high content of saturated FA. On the other hand, T. molitor larvae showed a higher content of monounsaturated FA than control larvae, whereas the n-6 polyunsaturated FA content decreased in larvae fed with fruits. This result indicates that the improvement of the FA profile of Tenebrio can depend on both the type of feeding and the intended use. The lipid profile of H. illucens larvae fed with papaya and tomato showed a slight increase in the content of α-linoleic acid (ALA, 18:3n3). This FA is the precursor of docosahexaenoic acid (DHA, 22:6n3), which plays an important role as a component of structural lipids in cell membranes as well as in the synthesis of eicosanoids, protecting and resolving. Also, it was evaluated the TAG profile of Z. morio larvae due to their highest oil content. The results showed a high oleic acid (OA, 18:1n9) content, which displays modulatory effects in a wide range of physiological functions, having anti-inflammatory and anti-atherogenic properties. In conclusion, this study clearly shows that Z. morio and H. illucens larvae constitute an alternative source of OA- and ALA-rich oils, respectively, which can be devoted for food use, as well as for using in the food and pharmaceutical industries, with agronomic implications. Finally, although the profile of Z. morio was not improved with fruit feeding, this kind of feeding could be used due to its low environmental impact.

Keywords: fatty acids, fruit byproducts, Hermetia illucens, Zophoba morio, Tenebrio molitor, insect rearing

Procedia PDF Downloads 118

Authors: N. Singh, G. K. Darbha

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Since the last decade, a wave of research has begun to study the prevalence and impact of ever-increasing plastic pollution in the environment. The wide application and ubiquitous distribution of plastic have become a global concern due to its persistent nature. The disposal of plastics has emerged as one of the major challenges for waste management landfills. Microplastics (MPs) have found its existence in almost every environment, from the high altitude mountain lake to the deep sea sediments, polar icebergs, coral reefs, estuaries, beaches, and river, etc. Microplastics are fragments of plastics with size less than 5 mm. Microplastics can be classified as primary microplastics and secondary microplastics. Primary microplastics includes purposefully introduced microplastics into the end products for consumers (microbeads used in facial cleansers, personal care product, etc.), pellets (used in manufacturing industries) or fibres (from textile industries) which finally enters into the environment. Secondary microplastics are formed by disintegration of larger fragments under the exposure of sunlight, mechanical abrasive forces by rain, waves, wind and/or water. A number of factors affect the quantity of microplastic present in freshwater environments. In addition to physical forces, human population density proximal to the water body, proximity to urban centres, water residence time, and size of the water body also affects plastic properties. With time, other complex processes in nature such as physical, chemical and biological break down plastics by interfering with its structural integrity. Several studies demonstrate that microplastics found in wastewater sludge being used as manure for agricultural fields, thus having the tendency to alter the soil environment condition influencing the microbial population as well. Inadequate data are available on the fate and transport of microplastics under varying environmental conditions that are required to supplement important information for further research. In addition, microplastics have the tendency to absorb heavy metals and hydrophobic organic contaminants such as PAHs and PCBs from its surroundings and thus acting as carriers for these contaminants in the environment system. In this study, three kinds of microplastics (polyethylene, polypropylene and expanded polystyrene) of different densities were chosen. Plastic samples were placed in sand with different aqueous media (distilled water, surface water, groundwater and marine water). It was incubated at varying temperatures (25, 35 and 40 °C) and agitation levels (rpm). The results show that the number of plastic fragments enhanced with increase in temperature and agitation speed. Moreover, the rate of disintegration of expanded polystyrene is high compared to other plastics. These results demonstrate that temperature, salinity, and mechanical abrasion plays a major role in degradation of plastics. Since weathered microplastics are more harmful as compared to the virgin microplastics, long-term studies involving other environmental factors are needed to have a better understanding of degradation of plastics.

Keywords: environmental contamination, fragmentation, microplastics, temperature, weathering

Procedia PDF Downloads 136

Authors: Maryna Barushka, Aleh Meshyk

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The research analyzes absolute maximum soil temperatures registered at 36 gauge stations in Belarus from 1950 to 2013. The main method applied in the research is cartographic, in particular, trend surface analysis. Warming that had never been so long and intensive before started in 1988. The average temperature in January and February of that year exceeded the norm by 7-7.5 С, in March and April by 3-5С. In general, that year, as well as the year of 2008, happened to be the hottest ones in the whole period of instrumental observation. Yearly average air temperature in Belarus in those years was +8.0-8.2 С, which exceeded the norm by 2.0 – 2.2 С. The warming has been observed so far. The only exception was in 1996 when the yearly average air temperature in Belarus was below normal by 0.5 С. In Belarus the value of trend line of standard temperature deviation in the warmest months (July-August) has been positive for the past 25 years. In 2010 absolute maximum air and soil temperature exceeded the norm at 15 gauge stations in Belarus. The structure of natural processes includes global, regional, and local constituents. Trend surface analysis of the investigated characteristics makes it possible to determine global, regional, and local components. Linear trend surface shows the occurrence of weather deviations on a global scale, outside Belarus. Maximum soil temperature appears to be growing in the south-west direction with the gradient of 5.0 С. It is explained by the latitude factor. Polynomial trend surfaces show regional peculiarities of Belarus. Extreme temperature regime is formed due to some factors. The prevailing one is advection of turbulent flow of the ground layer of the atmosphere. In summer influence of the Azores High producing anticyclones is great. The Gulf Stream current forms the values of temperature trends in a year period. The most intensive flow of the Gulf Stream in the second half of winter and the second half of summer coincides with the periods of maximum temperature trends in Belarus. It is possible to estimate a local component of weather deviations in the analysis of the difference in values of the investigated characteristics and their trend surfaces. Maximum positive deviation (up to +4 С) of averaged soil temperature corresponds to the flat terrain in Pripyat Polesie, Brest Polesie, and Belarusian Poozerie Area. Negative differences correspond to the higher relief which partially compensates extreme heat regime of soils. Another important factor for maximum soil temperature in these areas is peat-bog soils with the least albedo of 8-15%. As yearly maximum soil temperature reaches 40-60 С, this could be both negative and positive factors for Belarus’s environment and economy. High temperature causes droughts resulting in crops dying and soil blowing. On the other hand, vegetation period has lengthened thanks to bigger heat resources, which allows planting such heat-loving crops as melons and grapes with appropriate irrigation. Thus, trend surface analysis allows determining global, regional, and local factors in accumulating heat in the soils of Belarus.

Keywords: soil, temperature, trend surface analysis, warming

Procedia PDF Downloads 107

Authors: Rachid Belhachemi, Pierre Rostan, Alexandra Rostan

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This paper develops a discrete-time option pricing model for index options. The model consists of two key ingredients. First, daily stock return innovations are driven by a continuous hidden threshold mixed skew-normal (HTSN) distribution which generates conditional non-normality that is needed to fit daily index return. The most important feature of the HTSN is the inclusion of a latent state variable with a continuum of states, unlike the traditional mixture distributions where the state variable is discrete with little number of states. The HTSN distribution belongs to the class of univariate probability distributions where parameters of the distribution capture the dependence between the variable of interest and the continuous latent state variable (the regime). The distribution has an interpretation in terms of a mixture distribution with time-varying mixing probabilities. It has been shown empirically that this distribution outperforms its main competitor, the mixed normal (MN) distribution, in terms of capturing the stylized facts known for stock returns, namely, volatility clustering, leverage effect, skewness, kurtosis and regime dependence. Second, heteroscedasticity in the model is captured by a threeexogenous-factor GARCH model (GARCHX), where the factors are taken from the principal components analysis of various world indices and presents an application to option pricing. The factors of the GARCHX model are extracted from a matrix of world indices applying principal component analysis (PCA). The empirically determined factors are uncorrelated and represent truly different common components driving the returns. Both factors and the eight parameters inherent to the HTSN distribution aim at capturing the impact of the state of the economy on price levels since distribution parameters have economic interpretations in terms of conditional volatilities and correlations of the returns with the hidden continuous state. The PCA identifies statistically independent factors affecting the random evolution of a given pool of assets -in our paper a pool of international stock indices- and sorting them by order of relative importance. The PCA computes a historical cross asset covariance matrix and identifies principal components representing independent factors. In our paper, factors are used to calibrate the HTSN-GARCHX model and are ultimately responsible for the nature of the distribution of random variables being generated. We benchmark our model to the MN-GARCHX model following the same PCA methodology and the standard Black-Scholes model. We show that our model outperforms the benchmark in terms of RMSE in dollar losses for put and call options, which in turn outperforms the analytical Black-Scholes by capturing the stylized facts known for index returns, namely, volatility clustering, leverage effect, skewness, kurtosis and regime dependence.

Keywords: continuous hidden threshold, factor models, GARCHX models, option pricing, risk-premium

Procedia PDF Downloads 279

Authors: Fadwa Al Bawardi

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In March 2021, the Saudi Arabian Council of Ministers issued a decision to form a committee called the "Higher Committee for Research, Development and Innovation," a committee linked to the Council of Economic and Development Affairs, chaired by the Chairman of the Council of Economic and Development Affairs, and concerned with the development of the research, development and innovation sector in the Kingdom. In order to talk about the dimensions of this wonderful step, let us first try to answer the following questions. Is there a difference between creativity and innovation..? What are the factors of creativity in the individual. Are they mental genetic factors or are they factors that an individual acquires through learning..? The methodology included surveys that have been conducted on more than 500 individuals, males and females, between the ages of 18 till 60. And the answer is. "Creativity" is the creation of a new idea, while "Innovation" is the development of an already existing idea in a new, successful way. They are two sides of the same coin, as the "creative idea" needs to be developed and transformed into an "innovation" in order to achieve either strategic achievements at the level of countries and institutions to enhance organizational intelligence, or achievements at the level of individuals. For example, the beginning of smart phones was just a creative idea from IBM in 1994, but the actual successful innovation for the manufacture, development and marketing of these phones was through Apple later. Nor does creativity have to be hereditary. There are three basic factors for creativity: The first factor is "the presence of a challenge or an obstacle" that the individual faces and seeks thinking to find solutions to overcome, even if thinking requires a long time. The second factor is the "environment surrounding" of the individual, which includes science, training, experience gained, the ability to use techniques, as well as the ability to assess whether the idea is feasible or otherwise. To achieve this factor, the individual must be aware of own skills, strengths, hobbies, and aspects in which one can be creative, and the individual must also be self-confident and courageous enough to suggest those new ideas. The third factor is "Experience and the Ability to Accept Risk and Lack of Initial Success," and then learn from mistakes and try again tirelessly. There are some tools and techniques that help the individual to reach creative and innovative ideas, such as: Mind Maps tool, through which the available information is drawn by writing a short word for each piece of information and arranging all other relevant information through clear lines, which helps in logical thinking and correct vision. There is also a tool called "Flow Charts", which are graphics that show the sequence of data and expected results according to an ordered scenario of events and workflow steps, giving clarity to the ideas, their sequence, and what is expected of them. There are also other great tools such as the Six Hats tool, a useful tool to be applied by a group of people for effective planning and detailed logical thinking, and the Snowball tool. And all of them are tools that greatly help in organizing and arranging mental thoughts, and making the right decisions. It is also easy to learn, apply and use all those tools and techniques to reach creative and innovative solutions. The detailed figures and results of the conducted surveys are available upon request, with charts showing the %s based on gender, age groups, and job categories.

Keywords: innovation, creativity, factors, tools

Procedia PDF Downloads 31

Authors: Aşina Gülerarslan, M. Faik Özdengül

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The new economic, social and political world order has led to the emergence of a wide range of persuasion strategies and practices based on an ever expanding marketing axis that involves organizations, ideas and persons as well as products and services. It is seen that since the 1990's, a wide variety of competitive marketing ideas have been offered systematically to target audiences in the field of politics as in other fields. When the components of marketing are taken into consideration, all kinds of communication efforts involving “political leaders”, who are conceptualized as products in terms of political marketing, serve a process of social persuasion, which cannot be restricted to election periods only, and a manageable “image”. In this context, image, which is concerned with how the political product is perceived, involves not only the political discourses shared with the public but also all kinds of biographical information about the leader, the leader’s specific way of living and routines and his/her attitudes and behaviors in their private lives, and all these are regarded as components of the “product image”. While on the one hand the leader’s verbal or supra-verbal references serve the way the “spirit of the product” is perceived –just as in brand positioning- they also show their self-esteem levels, in other words how they perceive themselves on the other hand. Indeed, their self-esteem levels are evaluated in three fundamental categories in the “Functional Analysis”, namely parent, child and adult, and it is revealed that the words, tone of voice and body language a person uses makes it easy to understand at what self-esteem level that person is. In this context, words, tone of voice and body language, which provide important clues as to the “self” of the person, are also an indication of how political leaders evaluate both “themselves” and “the mass/audience” in the communication they establish with their audiences. When the matter is taken from the perspective of Turkey, the levels of self-esteem in the relationships that the political leaders establish with the masses are also important in revealing how our society is seen from the perspective of a specific leader. Since the leader is a part of the marketing strategy of a political party as a product, this evaluation is significant in terms of the forms of relationships between political institutions in our country with the society. In this study, the self-esteem level in the documentary entitled “Master’s Story”, where Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s life history is told, is analyzed in the context of words, tone of voice and body language. Within the scope of the study, at what level of self-esteem Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was in the “Master’s Story”, a documentary broadcast on Beyaz TV, was investigated using the content analysis method. First, based on the Functional Analysis Literature, a transactional approach scale was created regarding parent, adult and child self-esteem levels. On the basis of this scale, the prime minister’s self-esteem level was determined in three basic groups, namely “tone of voice”, “the words he used” and “body language”. Descriptive analyses were made to the data within the framework of these criteria and at what self-esteem level the prime minister spoke throughout the documentary was revealed.

Keywords: political marketing, leader image, level of self-esteem, transactional approach

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Authors: Echo Wang, Andrew Li

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Transparency could be defined as the voluntary release of information by institutions that is relevant to their own evaluation. Transparency based on information disclosure is recognised to be vital for the Third Sector, as civil society organisations are under pressure to become more transparent to answer the call for accountability. The growing importance of social enterprises as hybrid organisations emerging from the nexus of the public, the private and the Third Sector makes their transparency a topic worth exploring. However, transparency for social enterprises has not yet been studied: as a new form of organisation that combines non-profit missions with commercial means, it is unclear to both the practical and the academic world if the shift in operational logics from non-profit motives to for-profit pursuits has significantly altered their transparency. This is especially so in China, where informational governance and practices of information disclosure by local governments, industries and civil society are notably different from other countries. This study investigates the transparency-seeking behaviour of social enterprises in Greater China to understand what factors at the organisational level may affect their transparency, measured by their willingness to disclose financial information. We make use of the Survey on the Models and Development Status of Social Enterprises in the Greater China Region (MDSSGCR) conducted in 2015-2016. The sample consists of more than 300 social enterprises from the Mainland, Hong Kong and Taiwan. While most respondents have provided complete answers to most of the questions, there is tremendous variation in the respondents’ demonstrated level of transparency in answering those questions related to the financial aspects of their organisations, such as total revenue, net profit, source of revenue and expense. This has led to a lot of missing data on such variables. In this study, we take missing data as data. Specifically, we use missing values as a proxy for an organisation’s level of transparency. Our dependent variables are constructed from missing data on total revenue, net profit, source of revenue and cost breakdown. In addition, we also take into consideration the quality of answers in coding the dependent variables. For example, to be coded as being transparent, an organization must report the sources of at least 50% of its revenue. We have four groups of predictors of transparency, namely nature of organization, decision making body, funding channel and field of concentration. Furthermore, we control for an organisation’s stage of development, self-identity and region. The results show that social enterprises that are at their later stages of organisational development and are funded by financial means are significantly more transparent than others. There is also some evidence that social enterprises located in the Northeast region in China are less transparent than those located in other regions probably because of local political economy features. On the other hand, the nature of the organisation, the decision-making body and field of concentration do not systematically affect the level of transparency. This study provides in-depth empirical insights into the information disclosure behaviour of social enterprises under specific social context. It does not only reveal important characteristics of Third Sector development in China, but also contributes to the general understanding of hybrid institutions.

Keywords: China, information transparency, organisational behaviour, social enterprise

Procedia PDF Downloads 154

Authors: S. H. Chew, Z. X. Eng, K. E. Chuah, T. Y. Lim, H. M. A. Yim

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In recent years, geotextile tube has been widely used in the hydraulic engineering and dewatering industry. To construct a stable containment bund with geotextile tubes, the sand slurry is always the preference infilling material. However, the shortage of sand supply posts a problem in Singapore to adopt this construction method in the actual construction of long containment bund. Hence, utilizing the soft dredged clay or the excavated soft clay as the infilling material of geotextile tubes has a great economic benefit. There are any technical issues with using this soft clayey material as infilling material, especially on the excessive settlement and stability concerns. To minimize the shape deformation and settlement of geotextile tube associated with the use of this soft clay infilling material, a modified innovative infilling material is proposed – lightly cemented soft clay. The preliminary laboratory studies have shown that the dewatering mechanism via geotextile material of the tube skin, and the introduction of cementitious chemical action of the lightly cemented soft clay will accelerate the consolidation and improve the shear strength of infill material. This study aims to extend the study by conducting a pilot test of the geotextile tube filled with lightly cemented clay. This study consists of testing on a series of miniature geo-tubes and two full-size geotextile tube. In the miniature geo-tube tests, a number of small scaled-down size of geotextile tubes were filled with cemented clay (at water content of 150%) with cement content of 0% to 8% (by weight). The shear strength development of the lightly cemented clay under dewatering mechanism was evaluated using a modified in-situ Cone Penetration Test (CPT) at 0 days, 3 days, 7 days and 28 days after the infilling. The undisturbed soil samples of lightly cemented infilled clay were also extracted at 3-days and 7-days for triaxial tests and evaluation of final water content. The results suggested that the geotextile tubes filled with un-cemented soft clay experienced very significant shape change over the days (as control test). However, geotextile mini-tubes filled with lightly cemented clay experienced only marginal shape changed, even that the strength development of this lightly cemented clay inside the tube may not show significant strength gain at the early stage. The shape stability is believed to be due to the confinement effect of the geotextile tube with clay at non-slurry state. Subsequently, a full-scale instrumented geotextile tube filled with lightly cemented clay was performed. The extensive results of strain gauges and pressure transducers installed on this full-size geotextile tube demonstrated a substantial mobilization of tensile forces on the geotextile skin corresponding to the filling activity and the subsequent dewatering stage. Shape change and the in-fill material strength development was also monitored. In summary, the construction of containment bund with geotextile tube filled with lightly cemented clay is found to be technically feasible and stable with the use of the sufficiently strong (i.e. adequate tensile strength) geotextile tube, the adequate control on the dosage of cement content, and suitable water content of infilling soft clay material.

Keywords: cemented clay, containment bund, dewatering, geotextile tube

Procedia PDF Downloads 248

Authors: Saba Rahman, Arvind K. Jain, S. D. Bharti, T. K. Datta

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Chimneys are generally tall and slender structures with circular cross-sections, due to which they are highly prone to wind forces. Wind exerts pressure on the wall of the chimneys, which produces unwanted forces. Vortex-induced oscillation is one of such excitations which can lead to the failure of the chimneys. Therefore, vortex-induced oscillation of chimneys is of great concern to researchers and practitioners since many failures of chimneys due to vortex shedding have occurred in the past. As a consequence, extensive research has taken place on the subject over decades. Many laboratory experiments have been performed to verify the theoretical models proposed to predict vortex-induced forces, including aero-elastic effects. Comparatively, very few proto-type measurement data have been recorded to verify the proposed theoretical models. Because of this reason, the theoretical models developed with the help of experimental laboratory data are utilized for analyzing the chimneys for vortex-induced forces. This calls for reliability analysis of the predictions of the responses of the chimneys produced due to vortex shedding phenomena. Although several works of literature exist on the vortex-induced oscillation of chimneys, including code provisions, the reliability analysis of chimneys against failure caused due to vortex shedding is scanty. In the present study, the reliability analysis of chimneys against vortex shedding failure is presented, assuming the uncertainty in vortex shedding phenomena to be significantly more than other uncertainties, and hence, the latter is ignored. The vortex shedding is modeled as a stationary random process and is represented by a power spectral density function (PSDF). It is assumed that the vortex shedding forces are perfectly correlated and act over the top one-third height of the chimney. The PSDF of the tip displacement of the chimney is obtained by performing a frequency domain spectral analysis using a matrix approach. For this purpose, both chimney and random wind forces are discretized over a number of points along with the height of the chimney. The method of analysis duly accounts for the aero-elastic effects. The double barrier threshold crossing level, as proposed by Vanmarcke, is used for determining the probability of crossing different threshold levels of the tip displacement of the chimney. Assuming the annual distribution of the mean wind velocity to be a Gumbel type-I distribution, the fragility curve denoting the variation of the annual probability of threshold crossing against different threshold levels of the tip displacement of the chimney is determined. The reliability estimate is derived from the fragility curve. A 210m tall concrete chimney with a base diameter of 35m, top diameter as 21m, and thickness as 0.3m has been taken as an illustrative example. The terrain condition is assumed to be that corresponding to the city center. The expression for the PSDF of the vortex shedding force is taken to be used by Vickery and Basu. The results of the study show that the threshold crossing reliability of the tip displacement of the chimney is significantly influenced by the assumed structural damping and the Gumbel distribution parameters. Further, the aero-elastic effect influences the reliability estimate to a great extent for small structural damping.

Keywords: chimney, fragility curve, reliability analysis, vortex-induced vibration

Procedia PDF Downloads 136

Authors: Parisa Shirzadeh

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Drug delivery systems in which drugs are traditionally used, multi-stage and at specified intervals by patients, do not meet the needs of the world's up-to-date drug delivery. In today's world, we are dealing with a huge number of recombinant peptide and protean drugs and analogues of hormones in the body, most of which are made with genetic engineering techniques. Most of these drugs are used to treat critical diseases such as cancer. Due to the limitations of the traditional method, researchers sought to find ways to solve the problems of the traditional method to a large extent. Following these efforts, controlled drug release systems were introduced, which have many advantages. Using controlled release of the drug in the body, the concentration of the drug is kept at a certain level, and in a short time, it is done at a higher rate. Graphene is a natural material that is biodegradable, non-toxic, and natural compared to carbon nanotubes; its price is lower than carbon nanotubes and is cost-effective for industrialization. On the other hand, the presence of highly effective surfaces and wide surfaces of graphene plates makes it more effective to modify graphene than carbon nanotubes. Graphene oxide is often synthesized using concentrated oxidizers such as sulfuric acid, nitric acid, and potassium permanganate based on Hummer 1 method. In comparison with the initial graphene, the resulting graphene oxide is heavier and has carboxyl, hydroxyl, and epoxy groups. Therefore, graphene oxide is very hydrophilic and easily dissolves in water and creates a stable solution. On the other hand, because the hydroxyl, carboxyl, and epoxy groups created on the surface are highly reactive, they have the ability to work with other functional groups such as amines, esters, polymers, etc. Connect and bring new features to the surface of graphene. In fact, it can be concluded that the creation of hydroxyl groups, Carboxyl, and epoxy and in fact graphene oxidation is the first step and step in creating other functional groups on the surface of graphene. Chitosan is a natural polymer and does not cause toxicity in the body. Due to its chemical structure and having OH and NH groups, it is suitable for binding to graphene oxide and increasing its solubility in aqueous solutions. Graphene oxide (GO) has been modified by chitosan (CS) covalently, developed for control release of doxorubicin (DOX). In this study, GO is produced by the hummer method under acidic conditions. Then, it is chlorinated by oxalyl chloride to increase its reactivity against amine. After that, in the presence of chitosan, the amino reaction was performed to form amide transplantation, and the doxorubicin was connected to the carrier surface by π-π interaction in buffer phosphate. GO, GO-CS, and GO-CS-DOX characterized by FT-IR, RAMAN, TGA, and SEM. The ability to load and release is determined by UV-Visible spectroscopy. The loading result showed a high capacity of DOX absorption (99%) and pH dependence identified as a result of DOX release from GO-CS nanosheet at pH 5.3 and 7.4, which show a fast release rate in acidic conditions.

Keywords: graphene oxide, chitosan, nanosheet, controlled drug release, doxorubicin

Procedia PDF Downloads 96

Authors: Mohammad Alipour, Ekin Esen, Riza Kizilel

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Lithium-ion batteries are a commonly used type of rechargeable batteries because of their high specific energy and specific power. With the growing popularity of electric vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles, increasing attentions have been paid to rechargeable Lithium-ion batteries. However, safety problems, high cost and poor performance in low ambient temperatures and high current rates, are big obstacles for commercial utilization of these batteries. By proper thermal management, most of the mentioned limitations could be eliminated. Temperature profile of the Li-ion cells has a significant role in the performance, safety, and cycle life of the battery. That is why little temperature gradient can lead to great loss in the performances of the battery packs. In recent years, numerous researchers are working on new techniques to imply a better thermal management on Li-ion batteries. Keeping the battery cells within an optimum range is the main objective of battery thermal management. Commercial Li-ion cells are composed of several electrochemical layers each consisting negative-current collector, negative electrode, separator, positive electrode, and positive current collector. However, many researchers have adopted a single-layer cell to save in computing time. Their hypothesis is that thermal conductivity of the layer elements is so high and heat transfer rate is so fast. Therefore, instead of several thin layers, they model the cell as one thick layer unit. In previous work, we showed that single-layer model is insufficient to simulate the thermal behavior and temperature nonuniformity of the high-capacity Li-ion cells. We also studied the effects of the number of layers on thermal behavior of the Li-ion batteries. In this work, first thermal and electrochemical behavior of the LiFePO₄ battery is modeled with 3D multilayer cell. The model is validated with the experimental measurements at different current rates and ambient temperatures. Real time heat generation rate is also studied at different discharge rates. Results showed non-uniform temperature distribution along the cell which requires thermal management system. Therefore, aluminum plates with mini-channel system were designed to control the temperature uniformity. Design parameters such as channel number and widths, inlet flow rate, and cooling fluids are optimized. As cooling fluids, water and air are compared. Pressure drop and velocity profiles inside the channels are illustrated. Both surface and internal temperature profiles of single cell and battery packs are investigated with and without cooling systems. Our results show that using optimized Mini-channel cooling plates effectively controls the temperature rise and uniformity of the single cells and battery packs. With increasing the inlet flow rate, cooling efficiency could be reached up to 60%.

Keywords: lithium ion battery, 3D multilayer model, mini-channel cooling plates, thermal management

Procedia PDF Downloads 136

Authors: Michela Del Vicario, Walter Quattrociocchi, Antonio Scala, Ana Lucía Schmidt, Fabiana Zollo

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Information, rumors, and debates may shape and impact public opinion heavily. In the latest years, several concerns have been expressed about social influence on the Internet and the outcome that online debates might have on real-world processes. Indeed, on online social networks users tend to select information that is coherent to their system of beliefs and to form groups of like-minded people –i.e., echo chambers– where they reinforce and polarize their opinions. In this way, the potential benefits coming from the exposure to different points of view may be reduced dramatically, and individuals' views may become more and more extreme. Such a context fosters misinformation spreading, which has always represented a socio-political and economic risk. The persistence of unsubstantiated rumors –e.g., the hypothetical and hazardous link between vaccines and autism– suggests that social media do have the power to misinform, manipulate, or control public opinion. As an example, current approaches such as debunking efforts or algorithmic-driven solutions based on the reputation of the source seem to prove ineffective against collective superstition. Indeed, experimental evidence shows that confirmatory information gets accepted even when containing deliberately false claims while dissenting information is mainly ignored, influences users’ emotions negatively and may even increase group polarization. Moreover, confirmation bias has been shown to play a pivotal role in information cascades, posing serious warnings about the efficacy of current debunking efforts. Nevertheless, mitigation strategies have to be adopted. To generalize the problem and to better understand social dynamics behind information spreading, in this work we rely on a tight quantitative analysis to investigate the behavior of more than 300M users w.r.t. news consumption on Facebook over a time span of six years (2010-2015). Through a massive analysis on 920 news outlets pages, we are able to characterize the anatomy of news consumption on a global and international scale. We show that users tend to focus on a limited set of pages (selective exposure) eliciting a sharp and polarized community structure among news outlets. Moreover, we find similar patterns around the Brexit –the British referendum to leave the European Union– debate, where we observe the spontaneous emergence of two well segregated and polarized groups of users around news outlets. Our findings provide interesting insights into the determinants of polarization and the evolution of core narratives on online debating. Our main aim is to understand and map the information space on online social media by identifying non-trivial proxies for the early detection of massive informational cascades. Furthermore, by combining users traces, we are finally able to draft the main concepts and beliefs of the core narrative of an echo chamber and its related perceptions.

Keywords: information spreading, misinformation, narratives, online social networks, polarization

Procedia PDF Downloads 267

Authors: Yi Wang, Greg Hearn, Terry Flew

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In order to understand how cultural innovation occurs, this paper explores the interaction in Shenzhen of China between universities, creative industries, and government in creative economic using the Triple Helix framework. During the past two decades, Triple Helix has been recognized as a new theory of innovation to inform and guide policy-making in national and regional development. Universities and governments around the world, especially in developing countries, have taken actions to strengthen connections with creative industries to develop regional economies. To date research based on the Triple Helix model has focused primarily on Science and Technology collaborations, largely ignoring other fields. Hence, there is an opportunity for work to be done in seeking to better understand how the Triple Helix framework might apply in the field of creative industries and what knowledge might be gleaned from such an undertaking. Since the late 1990s, the concept of ‘creative industries’ has been introduced as policy and academic discourse. The development of creative industries policy by city agencies has improved city wealth creation and economic capital. It claims to generate a ‘new economy’ of enterprise dynamics and activities for urban renewal through the arts and digital media, via knowledge transfer in knowledge-based economies. Creative industries also involve commercial inputs to the creative economy, to dynamically reshape the city into an innovative culture. In particular, this paper will concentrate on creative spaces (incubators, digital tech parks, maker spaces, art hubs) where academic, industry and government interact. China has sought to enhance the brand of their manufacturing industry in cultural policy. It aims to transfer the image of ‘Made in China’ to ‘Created in China’ as well as to give Chinese brands more international competitiveness in a global economy. Shenzhen is a notable example in China as an international knowledge-based city following this path. In 2009, the Shenzhen Municipal Government proposed the city slogan ‘Build a Leading Cultural City”’ to show the ambition of government’s strong will to develop Shenzhen’s cultural capacity and creativity. The vision of Shenzhen is to become a cultural innovation center, a regional cultural center and an international cultural city. However, there has been a lack of attention to the triple helix interactions in the creative industries in China. In particular, there is limited knowledge about how interactions in creative spaces co-location within triple helix networks significantly influence city based innovation. That is, the roles of participating institutions need to be better understood. Thus, this paper discusses the interplay between university, creative industries and government in Shenzhen. Secondary analysis and documentary analysis will be used as methods in an effort to practically ground and illustrate this theoretical framework. Furthermore, this paper explores how are creative spaces being used to implement Triple Helix in creative industries. In particular, the new combination of resources generated from the synthesized consolidation and interactions through the institutions. This study will thus provide an innovative lens to understand the components, relationships and functions that exist within creative spaces by applying Triple Helix framework to the creative industries.

Keywords: cultural policy, creative industries, creative city, triple Helix

Procedia PDF Downloads 174

Authors: Eliane Abdo, Olivier Colot

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SMEs are always considered as a national priority due to their contribution to job creation, innovation and growth. Once the start-up phase is crossed with encouraging results, the company enters the phase of growth. In order to improve its competitiveness, maintain and increase its market share, the company is in the necessity even the obligation to develop its tangible and intangible investments. SMEs are generally closed companies with special and critical financial situation, limited resources and difficulty to access the capital markets; their shareholders are always living in a conflict between their independence and their need to increase capital that leads to the entry of new shareholder. The capital structure was always considered the core of research in corporate finance; moreover, the financial crisis and its repercussions on the credit’s availability, especially for SMEs make SME financing a hot topic. On the other hand, financial theories do not provide answers to capital structure’s questions; they offer tools and mode of financing that are more accessible to larger companies. Yet, SME’s capital structure can’t be independent of their governance structure. The classic financial theory supposes independence between the investment decision and the financing decision. Thus, investment determines the volume of funding, but not the split between internal or external funds. In this context, we find interesting to study the hypothesis that SMEs respond positively to the financial theories applied to large firms and to check if they are constrained by conventional solutions used by large companies. In this context, this research focuses on the analysis of the resource’s structure of SME in parallel with their investments’ structure, in order to highlight a link between their assets and liabilities structure. We founded our conceptual model based on two main theoretical frameworks: the Pecking order theory, and the Trade Off theory taking into consideration the SME’s characteristics. Our data were generated from DIANE database. Five hypotheses were tested via a panel regression to understand the type of dependence between the financing methods of 3,244 French SMEs and the development of their investment over a period of 10 years (2007-2016). The results show dependence between equity and internal financing in case of intangible investments development. Moreover, this type of business is constraint to financial debts since the guarantees provided are not sufficient to meet the banks' requirements. However, for tangible investments development, SMEs count sequentially on internal financing, bank borrowing, and new shares issuance or hybrid financing. This is compliant to the Pecking Order Theory. We, therefore, conclude that unlisted SMEs incur more financial debts to finance their tangible investments more than their intangible. However, they always prefer internal financing as a first choice. This seems to be confirmed by the assumption that the profitability of the company is negatively related to the increase of the financial debt. Thus, the Pecking Order Theory predictions seem to be the most plausible. Consequently, SMEs primarily rely on self-financing and then go, into debt as a priority to finance their financial deficit.

Keywords: capital structure, investments, life cycle, pecking order theory, trade off theory

Procedia PDF Downloads 86

Authors: Timur S. Zaripov, Artur K. Gilfanov, Sergei S. Sazhin, Steven M. Begg, Morgan R. Heikal

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The calculation of the concentration of inertial droplets in complex flows is encountered in the modelling of numerous engineering and environmental phenomena; for example, fuel droplets in internal combustion engines and airborne pollutant particles. The results of recent research, focused on the development of methods for calculating concentration and their implementation in the commercial CFD code, ANSYS Fluent, is presented here. The study is motivated by the investigation of the mixture preparation processes in internal combustion engines with direct injection of fuel sprays. Two methods are used in our analysis; the Fully Lagrangian method (also known as the Osiptsov method) and the Eulerian approach. The Osiptsov method predicts droplet concentrations along path lines by solving the equations for the components of the Jacobian of the Eulerian-Lagrangian transformation. This method significantly decreases the computational requirements as it does not require counting of large numbers of tracked droplets as in the case of the conventional Lagrangian approach. In the Eulerian approach the average droplet velocity is expressed as a function of the carrier phase velocity as an expansion over the droplet response time and transport equation can be solved in the Eulerian form. The advantage of the method is that droplet velocity can be found without solving additional partial differential equations for the droplet velocity field. The predictions from the two approaches were compared in the analysis of the problem of a dilute gas-droplet flow around an infinitely long, circular cylinder. The concentrations of inertial droplets, with Stokes numbers of 0.05, 0.1, 0.2, in steady-state and transient laminar flow conditions, were determined at various Reynolds numbers. In the steady-state case, flows with Reynolds numbers of 1, 10, and 100 were investigated. It has been shown that the results predicted using both methods are almost identical at small Reynolds and Stokes numbers. For larger values of these numbers (Stokes — 0.1, 0.2; Reynolds — 10, 100) the Eulerian approach predicted a wider spread in concentration in the perturbations caused by the cylinder that can be attributed to the averaged droplet velocity field. The transient droplet flow case was investigated for a Reynolds number of 200. Both methods predicted a high droplet concentration in the zones of high strain rate and low concentrations in zones of high vorticity. The maxima of droplet concentration predicted by the Osiptsov method was up to two orders of magnitude greater than that predicted by the Eulerian method; a significant variation for an approach widely used in engineering applications. Based on the results of these comparisons, the Osiptsov method has resulted in a more precise description of the local properties of the inertial droplet flow. The method has been applied to the analysis of the results of experimental observations of a liquid gasoline spray at representative fuel injection pressure conditions. The preliminary results show good qualitative agreement between the predictions of the model and experimental data.

Keywords: internal combustion engines, Eulerian approach, fully Lagrangian approach, gasoline fuel sprays, droplets and particle concentrations

Procedia PDF Downloads 234

Authors: Jungyeol Hong, Dongjoo Park

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The urban transit system is a critical part of a solution to the economic, energy, and environmental challenges. Furthermore, it ultimately contributes the improvement of people’s quality of lives. For taking these kinds of advantages, the city of Seoul has tried to construct an integrated transit system including both subway and buses. The effort led to the fact that approximately 6.9 million citizens use the integrated transit system every day for their trips. Diagnosing the current transit network is a significant task to provide more convenient and pleasant transit environment. Therefore, the critical objective of this study is to establish a methodological framework for the analysis of an integrated bus-subway network and to examine the relationship between subway ridership and parameters such as network topology measures, bus demand, and a variety of commercial business facilities. Regarding a statistical approach to estimate subway ridership at a station level, many previous studies relied on Ordinary Least Square regression, but there was lack of studies considering the endogeneity issues which might show in the subway ridership prediction model. This study focused on both discovering the impacts of integrated transit network topology measures and endogenous effect of bus demand on subway ridership. It could ultimately contribute to developing more accurate subway ridership estimation accounting for its statistical bias. The spatial scope of the study covers Seoul city in South Korea, and it includes 243 subway stations and 10,120 bus stops with the temporal scope set during twenty-four hours with one-hour interval time panels each. The subway and bus ridership information in detail was collected from the Seoul Smart Card data in 2015 and 2016. First, integrated subway-bus network topology measures which have characteristics regarding connectivity, centrality, transitivity, and reciprocity were estimated based on the complex network theory. The results of integrated transit network topology analysis were compared to subway-only network topology. Also, the non-recursive approach which is Three-Stage Least Square was applied to develop the daily subway ridership model as capturing the endogeneity between bus and subway demands. Independent variables included roadway geometry, commercial business characteristics, social-economic characteristics, safety index, transit facility attributes, and dummies for seasons and time zone. Consequently, it was found that network topology measures were significant size effect. Especially, centrality measures showed that the elasticity was a change of 4.88% for closeness centrality, 24.48% for betweenness centrality while the elasticity of bus ridership was 8.85%. Moreover, it was proved that bus demand and subway ridership were endogenous in a non-recursive manner as showing that predicted bus ridership and predicted subway ridership is statistically significant in OLS regression models. Therefore, it shows that three-stage least square model appears to be a plausible model for efficient subway ridership estimation. It is expected that the proposed approach provides a reliable guideline that can be used as part of the spectrum of tools for evaluating a city-wide integrated transit network.

Keywords: integrated transit system, network topology measures, three-stage least squared, endogeneity, subway ridership

Procedia PDF Downloads 152

Authors: Sascha E. Oswald, Jan Busch

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The in-situ dechlorination of contamination by chlorinated solvents in groundwater via zero-valent iron (nZVI) is potentially an efficient and prompt remediation method. A key requirement is that nZVI has to be introduced in the subsurface in a way that substantial quantities of the contaminants are actually brought into direct contact with the nZVI in the aquifer. Thus it could be a more flexible and precise alternative to permeable reactive barrier techniques using granular iron. However, nZVI are often limited by fast agglomeration and sedimentation in colloidal suspensions, even more so in the aquifer sediments, which is a handicap for the application to treat source zones or contaminant plumes. Colloid-supported nZVI show promising characteristics to overcome these limitations and Carbo-Iron Colloids is a newly developed composite material aiming for that. The nZVI is built onto finely ground activated carbon of about a micrometer diameter acting as a carrier for it. The Carbo-Iron Colloids are often suspended with a polyanionic stabilizer, and carboxymethyl cellulose is one with good properties for that. We have investigated the transport behavior of Carbo-Iron Colloids (CIC) on different scales and for different conditions to assess its mobility in aquifer sediments as a key property for making its application feasible. The transport properties were tested in one-dimensional laboratory columns, a two-dimensional model aquifer and also an injection experiment in the field. Those experiments were accompanied by non-invasive tomographic investigations of the transport and filtration processes of CIC suspensions. The laboratory experiments showed that a larger part of the CIC can travel at least scales of meters for favorable but realistic conditions. Partly this is even similar to a dissolved tracer. For less favorable conditions this can be much smaller and in all cases a particular fraction of the CIC injected is retained mainly shortly after entering the porous medium. As field experiment a horizontal flow field was established, between two wells with a distance of 5 meters, in a confined, shallow aquifer at a contaminated site in North German lowlands. First a tracer test was performed and a basic model was set up to define the design of the CIC injection experiment. Then CIC suspension was introduced into the aquifer at the injection well while the second well was pumped and samples taken there to observe the breakthrough of CIC. This was based on direct visual inspection and total particle and iron concentrations of water samples analyzed in the laboratory later. It could be concluded that at least 12% of the CIC amount injected reached the extraction well in due course, some of it traveling distances larger than 10 meters in the non-uniform dipole flow field. This demonstrated that these CIC particles have a substantial mobility for reaching larger volumes of a contaminated aquifer and for interacting there by their reactivity with dissolved contaminants in the pore space. Therefore they seem suited well for groundwater remediation by in-situ formation of reactive barriers for chlorinated solvent plumes or even source removal.

Keywords: carbo-iron colloids, chlorinated solvents, in-situ remediation, particle transport, plume treatment

Procedia PDF Downloads 226

Authors: A. Odoom, A. Salama, H. Ibrahim

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Hydrogen is a clean source of energy for power production and transportation. The main source of hydrogen in this research is biodiesel. Glycerol also called glycerine is a by-product of biodiesel production by transesterification of vegetable oils and methanol. This is a reliable and environmentally-friendly source of hydrogen production than fossil fuels. A typical composition of crude glycerol comprises of glycerol, water, organic and inorganic salts, soap, methanol and small amounts of glycerides. Crude glycerol has limited industrial application due to its low purity thus, the usage of crude glycerol can significantly enhance the sustainability and production of biodiesel. Reforming techniques is an approach for hydrogen production mainly Steam Reforming (SR), Autothermal Reforming (ATR) and Partial Oxidation Reforming (POR). SR produces high hydrogen conversions and yield but is highly endothermic whereas POR is exothermic. On the downside, PO yields lower hydrogen as well as large amount of side reactions. ATR which is a fusion of partial oxidation reforming and steam reforming is thermally neutral because net reactor heat duty is zero. It has relatively high hydrogen yield, selectivity as well as limits coke formation. The complex chemical processes that take place during the production phases makes it relatively difficult to construct a reliable and robust numerical model. Numerical model is a tool to mimic reality and provide insight into the influence of the parameters. In this work, we introduce a finite volume numerical study for an 'in-house' lab-scale experiment of ATR. Previous numerical studies on this process have considered either using Comsol or nodal finite difference analysis. Since Comsol is a commercial package which is not readily available everywhere and lab-scale experiment can be considered well mixed in the radial direction. One spatial dimension suffices to capture the essential feature of ATR, in this work, we consider developing our own numerical approach using MATLAB. A continuum fixed bed reactor is modelled using MATLAB with both pseudo homogeneous and heterogeneous models. The drawback of nodal finite difference formulation is that it is not locally conservative which means that materials and momenta can be generated inside the domain as an artifact of the discretization. Control volume, on the other hand, is locally conservative and suites very well problems where materials are generated and consumed inside the domain. In this work, species mass balance, Darcy’s equation and energy equations are solved using operator splitting technique. Therefore, diffusion-like terms are discretized implicitly while advection-like terms are discretized explicitly. An upwind scheme is adapted for the advection term to ensure accuracy and positivity. Comparisons with the experimental data show very good agreements which build confidence in our modeling approach. The models obtained were validated and optimized for better results.

Keywords: autothermal reforming, crude glycerol, hydrogen, numerical model

Procedia PDF Downloads 119

Authors: Abdul Rehman, Bo Liu

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Axial flow turbines are commonly designed with high loads that generate strong secondary flows and result in high secondary losses. These losses contribute to almost 30% to 50% of the total losses. Non-axisymmetric endwall profiling is one of the passive control technique to reduce the secondary flow loss. In this paper, the non-axisymmetric endwall profile construction and optimization for the stator endwalls are presented to improve the efficiency of a high pressure turbine. The commercial code NUMECA Fine/ Design3D coupled with Fine/Turbo was used for the numerical investigation, design of experiments and the optimization. All the flow simulations were conducted by using steady RANS and Spalart-Allmaras as a turbulence model. The non-axisymmetric endwalls of stator hub and shroud were created by using the perturbation law based on Bezier Curves. Each cut having multiple control points was supposed to be created along the virtual streamlines in the blade channel. For the design of experiments, each sample was arbitrarily generated based on values automatically chosen for the control points defined during parameterization. The Optimization was achieved by using two algorithms i.e. the stochastic algorithm and gradient-based algorithm. For the stochastic algorithm, a genetic algorithm based on the artificial neural network was used as an optimization method in order to achieve the global optimum. The evaluation of the successive design iterations was performed using artificial neural network prior to the flow solver. For the second case, the conjugate gradient algorithm with a three dimensional CFD flow solver was used to systematically vary a free-form parameterization of the endwall. This method is efficient and less time to consume as it requires derivative information of the objective function. The objective function was to maximize the isentropic efficiency of the turbine by keeping the mass flow rate as constant. The performance was quantified by using a multi-objective function. Other than these two classifications of the optimization methods, there were four optimizations cases i.e. the hub only, the shroud only, and the combination of hub and shroud. For the fourth case, the shroud endwall was optimized by using the optimized hub endwall geometry. The hub optimization resulted in an increase in the efficiency due to more homogenous inlet conditions for the rotor. The adverse pressure gradient was reduced but the total pressure loss in the vicinity of the hub was increased. The shroud optimization resulted in an increase in efficiency, total pressure loss and entropy were reduced. The combination of hub and shroud did not show overwhelming results which were achieved for the individual cases of the hub and the shroud. This may be caused by fact that there were too many control variables. The fourth case of optimization showed the best result because optimized hub was used as an initial geometry to optimize the shroud. The efficiency was increased more than the individual cases of optimization with a mass flow rate equal to the baseline design of the turbine. The results of artificial neural network and conjugate gradient method were compared.

Keywords: artificial neural network, axial turbine, conjugate gradient method, non-axisymmetric endwall, optimization

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Authors: Sascha Kraus, Wolfgang Hora, Philipp Stieg, Thomas Niemand, Ferdinand Thies, Matthias Filser

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In most countries, small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) are the backbone of the economy due to their impact on job creation, innovation and wealth creation. Moreover, the ongoing globalization makes it inevitable – even for SME that traditionally focused on their domestic markets – to internationalize their business activities to realize further growth and survive in international markets. Thus, internationalization has become one of the most common growth strategies for SME and has received increasing scholarly attention over the last two decades. One the downside internationalization can be also regarded as the most complex strategy that a firm can undertake. Particularly for family firms, that are often characterized by limited financial capital, a risk-averse nature and limited growth aspirations, it could be argued that family firms are more likely to face greater challenges when taking the pathway to internationalization. Especially the triangulation of family, ownership, and management (so-called ‘familiness’) manifests in a unique behavior and decision-making process which is often characterized by the importance given to noneconomic goals and distinguishes a family firm from other businesses. Taking this into account, the concept of socio-emotional wealth (SEW) has been evolved to describe the behavior of family firms. In order to investigate how different internal and external firm characteristics shape internationalization success of family firms, we drew on a sample consisting of 297 small and medium-sized family firms from Germany, Austria, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein. Thus, we include SEW as essential family firm characteristic and added the two major intra-organizational characteristics, entrepreneurial orientation (EO), absorptive capacity (AC) as well as collaboration intensity (CI) and relational knowledge (RK) as two major external network characteristics. Based on previous research we assume that these characteristics are important to explain internationalization success of family firm SME. Regarding the data analysis, we applied a Fuzzy Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA), an approach that allows identifying configurations of firm characteristics, specifically used to study complex causal relationships where traditional regression techniques reach their limits. Results indicate that several combinations of these family firm characteristics can lead to international success, with no permanently required key characteristic. Instead, there are many roads to walk down for family firms to achieve internationalization success. Consequently, our data states that family owned SME are heterogeneous and internationalization is a complex and dynamic process. Results further show that network related characteristics occur in all sets, thus represent an essential element in the internationalization process of family owned SME. The contribution of our study is twofold, as we investigate different forms of international expansion for family firms and how to improve them. First, we are able to broaden the understanding of the intersection between family firm and SME internationalization with respect to major intra-organizational and network-related variables. Second, from a practical perspective, we offer family firm owners a basis for setting up internal capabilities to achieve international success.

Keywords: entrepreneurial orientation, family firm, fsQCA, internationalization, socio-emotional wealth

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Authors: Oibar Martinez, Clara Oliver, Jose Miguel Miranda

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In this paper, we discuss the standard improvements which can be made to reduce the earth resistance in difficult terrains for optimum lightning protection, what are the practical limitations, and how the modeling can be refined for accurate diagnostics and ground resistance minimization. Ground resistance minimization can be made via three different approaches: burying vertical electrodes connected in parallel, burying horizontal conductive plates or meshes, or modifying the own terrain, either by changing the entire terrain material in a large volume or by adding earth-enhancing compounds. The use of vertical electrodes connected in parallel pose several practical limitations. In order to prevent loss of effectiveness, it is necessary to keep a minimum distance between each electrode, which is typically around five times larger than the electrode length. Otherwise, the overlapping of the local equipotential lines around each electrode reduces the efficiency of the configuration. The addition of parallel electrodes reduces the resistance and facilitates the measurement, but the basic parallel resistor formula of circuit theory will always underestimate the final resistance. Numerical simulation of equipotential lines around the electrodes overcomes this limitation. The resistance of a single electrode will always be proportional to the soil resistivity. The electrodes are usually installed with a backfilling material of high conductivity, which increases the effective diameter. However, the improvement is marginal, since the electrode diameter counts in the estimation of the ground resistance via a logarithmic function. Substances that are used for efficient chemical treatment must be environmentally friendly and must feature stability, high hygroscopicity, low corrosivity, and high electrical conductivity. A number of earth enhancement materials are commercially available. Many are comprised of carbon-based materials or clays like bentonite. These materials can also be used as backfilling materials to reduce the resistance of an electrode. Chemical treatment of soil has environmental issues. Some products contain copper sulfate or other copper-based compounds, which may not be environmentally friendly. Carbon-based compounds are relatively inexpensive and they do have very low resistivities, but they also feature corrosion issues. Typically, the carbon can corrode and destroy a copper electrode in around five years. These compounds also have potential environmental concerns. Some earthing enhancement materials contain cement, which, after installation acquire properties that are very close to concrete. This prevents the earthing enhancement material from leaching into the soil. After analyzing different configurations, we conclude that a buried conductive ring with vertical electrodes connected periodically should be the optimum baseline solution for the grounding of a large size structure installed on a large resistivity terrain. In order to show this, a practical example is explained here where we simulate the ground resistance of a conductive ring buried in a terrain with a resistivity in the range of 1 kOhm·m.

Keywords: grounding improvements, large scale scientific instrument, lightning risk assessment, lightning standards

Procedia PDF Downloads 111

Authors: Maria C. Proença, Maria T. Rebelo, Marília Antunes, Maria J. Alves, Hugo Osório, Sofia Cunha, REVIVE team

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The environment of the mosquitoes complex Culex pipiens sl. in Portugal mainland is evaluated based in its abundance, using a data set georeferenced, collected during seven years (2006-2012) from May to October. The suitability of the different regions can be delineated using the relative abundance areas; the suitablility index is directly proportional to disease transmission risk and allows focusing mitigation measures in order to avoid outbreaks of vector-borne diseases. The interest in the Culex pipiens complex is justified by its medical importance: the females bite all warm-blooded vertebrates and are involved in the circulation of several arbovirus of concern to human health, like West Nile virus, iridoviruses, rheoviruses and parvoviruses. The abundance of Culex pipiens mosquitoes were documented systematically all over the territory by the local health services, in a long duration program running since 2006. The environmental factors used to characterize the vector habitat are land use/land cover, distance to cartographed water bodies, altitude and latitude. Focus will be on the mosquito females, which gonotrophic cycle mate-bloodmeal-oviposition is responsible for the virus transmission; its abundance is the key for the planning of non-aggressive prophylactic countermeasures that may eradicate the transmission risk and simultaneously avoid chemical ambient degradation. Meteorological parameters such as: air relative humidity, air temperature (minima, maxima and mean daily temperatures) and daily total rainfall were gathered from the weather stations network for the same dates and crossed with the standardized females’ abundance in a geographic information system (GIS). Mean capture and percentage of above average captures related to each variable are used as criteria to compute a threshold for each meteorological parameter; the difference of the mean capture above/below the threshold was statistically assessed. The meteorological parameters measured at the net of weather stations all over the country are averaged by month and interpolated to produce raster maps that can be segmented according to the meaningful thresholds for each parameter. The intersection of the maps of all the parameters obtained for each month show the evolution of the suitable meteorological conditions through the mosquito season, considered as May to October, although the first and last month are less relevant. In parallel, mean and above average captures were related to the physiographic parameters – the land use/land cover classes most relevant in each month, the altitudes preferred and the most frequent distance to water bodies, a factor closely related with the mosquito biology. The maps produced with these results were crossed with the meteorological maps previously segmented, in order to get an index of suitability for the complex Culex pipiens evaluated all over the country, and its evolution from the beginning to the end of the mosquitoes season.

Keywords: suitability index, Culex pipiens, habitat evolution, GIS model

Procedia PDF Downloads 553

Authors: Gabriel Malgaresi, Sara Borazjani, Hadi Madani, Pavel Bedrikovetsky

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Suspension-Colloidal flow in porous media occurs in numerous engineering fields, such as industrial water treatment, the disposal of industrial wastes into aquifers with the propagation of contaminants and low salinity water injection into petroleum reservoirs. The main effects are particle mobilization and captured by the porous rock, which can cause pore plugging and permeability reduction which is known as formation damage. Various factors such as fluid salinity, pH, temperature, and rock properties affect particle detachment. Formation damage is unfavorable specifically near injection and production wells. One way to control formation damage is pre-treatment of the rock with nanoparticles. Adsorption of nanoparticles on fines and rock surfaces alters zeta-potential of the surfaces and enhances the attachment force between the rock and fine particles. The main objective of this study is to develop a two-stage mathematical model for (1) flow and adsorption of nanoparticles on the rock in the pre-treatment stage and (2) fines migration and permeability reduction during the water production after the pre-treatment. The model accounts for adsorption and desorption of nanoparticles, fines migration, and kinetics of particle capture. The system of equations allows for the exact solution. The non-self-similar wave-interaction problem was solved by the Method of Characteristics. The analytical model is new in two ways: First, it accounts for the specific boundary and initial condition describing the injection of nanoparticle and production from the pre-treated porous media; second, it contains the effect of nanoparticle sorption hysteresis. The derived analytical model contains explicit formulae for the concentration fronts along with pressure drop. The solution is used to determine the optimal injection concentration of nanoparticle to avoid formation damage. The mathematical model was validated via an innovative laboratory program. The laboratory study includes two sets of core-flood experiments: (1) production of water without nanoparticle pre-treatment; (2) pre-treatment of a similar core with nanoparticles followed by water production. Positively-charged Alumina nanoparticles with the average particle size of 100 nm were used for the rock pre-treatment. The core was saturated with the nanoparticles and then flushed with low salinity water; pressure drop across the core and the outlet fine concentration was monitored and used for model validation. The results of the analytical modeling showed a significant reduction in the fine outlet concentration and formation damage. This observation was in great agreement with the results of core-flood data. The exact solution accurately describes fines particle breakthroughs and evaluates the positive effect of nanoparticles in formation damage. We show that the adsorbed concentration of nanoparticle highly affects the permeability of the porous media. For the laboratory case presented, the reduction of permeability after 1 PVI production in the pre-treated scenario is 50% lower than the reference case. The main outcome of this study is to provide a validated mathematical model to evaluate the effect of nanoparticles on formation damage.

Keywords: nano-particles, formation damage, permeability, fines migration

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Authors: Beihai Xiong, Dengke Hua, Wouter Hendriks, Wilbert Pellikaan

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To improve the energy status of dairy cows in the early lactation, lots of jobs have been done on adjusting the starch to fiber ratio in the diet. As a complex ecosystem, the rumen contains a large population of microorganisms which plays a crucial role in feed degradation. Further study on the microbiota alterations and metabolic changes under different dietary energy sources is essential and valuable to better understand the function of the ruminal microorganisms and thereby to optimize the rumen function and enlarge feed efficiency. The present study will focus on the effects of two glucogenic diets (G: ground corn and corn silage; S: steam-flaked corn and corn silage) and a lipogenic diet (L: sugar beet pulp and alfalfa silage) on rumen fermentation, gas production, the ruminal microbiota and metabolome, and also their correlations in vitro. The gas production was recorded consistently, and the gas volume and producing rate at times 6, 12, 24, 48 h were calculated separately. The fermentation end-products were measured after fermenting for 48 h. The ruminal bacteria and archaea communities were determined by 16S RNA sequencing technique, the metabolome profile was tested through LC-MS methods. Compared to the diet G and S, the L diet had a lower dry matter digestibility, propionate production, and ammonia-nitrogen concentration. The two glucogenic diets performed worse in controlling methane and lactic acid production compared to the L diet. The S diet produced the greatest cumulative gas volume at any time points during incubation compared to the G and L diet. The metabolic analysis revealed that the lipid digestion was up-regulated by the diet L than other diets. On the subclass level, most metabolites belonging to the fatty acids and conjugates were higher, but most metabolites belonging to the amino acid, peptides, and analogs were lower in diet L than others. Differences in rumen fermentation characteristics were associated with (or resulting from) changes in the relative abundance of bacterial and archaeal genera. Most highly abundant bacteria were stable or slightly influenced by diets, while several amylolytic and cellulolytic bacteria were sensitive to the dietary changes. The L diet had a significantly higher number of cellulolytic bacteria, including the genera of Ruminococcus, Butyrivibrio, Eubacterium, Lachnospira, unclassified Lachnospiraceae, and unclassified Ruminococcaceae. The relative abundances of amylolytic bacteria genera including Selenomonas_1, Ruminobacter, and Succinivibrionaceae_UCG-002 were higher in diet G and S. These affected bacteria was also proved to have high associations with certain metabolites. The Selenomonas_1 and Succinivibrionaceae_UCG-002 may contribute to the higher propionate production in the diet G and S through enhancing the succinate pathway. The results indicated that the two glucogenic diets had a greater extent of gas production, a higher dry matter digestibility, and produced more propionate than diet L. The steam-flaked corn did not show a better performance on fermentation end-products than ground corn. This study has offered a deeper understanding of ruminal microbial functions which could assistant the improvement in rumen functions and thereby in the ruminant production.

Keywords: gas production, metabolome, microbiota, rumen fermentation

Procedia PDF Downloads 125

Authors: Yichao Liu, Peter Fransson, Julian Heidecke, Jonas Wallin, Joacim Rockloev

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Dengue, a mosquito-borne viral disease, poses a significant public health challenge in endemic tropical or subtropical countries, including Sri Lanka. To reveal insights into the complexity of the dynamics of this disease and study the drivers, a comprehensive model capable of both robust forecasting and insightful inference of drivers while capturing the co-circulating of several virus strains is essential. However, existing studies mostly focus on only one aspect at a time and do not integrate and carry insights across the siloed approach. While mechanistic models are developed to capture immunity dynamics, they are often oversimplified and lack integration of all the diverse drivers of disease transmission. On the other hand, purely data-driven methods lack constraints imposed by immuno-epidemiological processes, making them prone to overfitting and inference bias. This research presents a hybrid model that combines machine learning techniques with mechanistic modelling to overcome the limitations of existing approaches. Leveraging eight years of newly reported dengue case data, along with socioeconomic factors, such as human mobility, weekly climate data from 2011 to 2018, genetic data detecting the introduction and presence of new strains, and estimates of seropositivity for different districts in Sri Lanka, we derive a data-driven vector (SEI) to human (SEIR) model across 16 regions in Sri Lanka at the weekly time scale. By conducting ablation studies, the lag effects allowing delays up to 12 weeks of time-varying climate factors were determined. The model demonstrates superior predictive performance over a pure machine learning approach when considering lead times of 5 and 10 weeks on data withheld from model fitting. It further reveals several interesting interpretable findings of drivers while adjusting for the dynamics and influences of immunity and introduction of a new strain. The study uncovers strong influences of socioeconomic variables: population density, mobility, household income and rural vs. urban population. The study reveals substantial sensitivity to the diurnal temperature range and precipitation, while mean temperature and humidity appear less important in the study location. Additionally, the model indicated sensitivity to vegetation index, both max and average. Predictions on testing data reveal high model accuracy. Overall, this study advances the knowledge of dengue transmission in Sri Lanka and demonstrates the importance of incorporating hybrid modelling techniques to use biologically informed model structures with flexible data-driven estimates of model parameters. The findings show the potential to both inference of drivers in situations of complex disease dynamics and robust forecasting models.

Keywords: compartmental model, climate, dengue, machine learning, social-economic

Procedia PDF Downloads 47