Search results for: long axial length
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 8839

Search results for: long axial length

7879 Partial Discharge Characteristics of Free- Moving Particles in HVDC-GIS

Authors: Philipp Wenger, Michael Beltle, Stefan Tenbohlen, Uwe Riechert

Abstract:

The integration of renewable energy introduces new challenges to the transmission grid, as the power generation is located far from load centers. The associated necessary long-range power transmission increases the demand for high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission lines and DC distribution grids. HVDC gas-insulated switchgears (GIS) are considered being a key technology, due to the combination of the DC technology and the long operation experiences of AC-GIS. To ensure long-term reliability of such systems, insulation defects must be detected in an early stage. Operational experience with AC systems has proven evidence, that most failures, which can be attributed to breakdowns of the insulation system, can be detected and identified via partial discharge (PD) measurements beforehand. In AC systems the identification of defects relies on the phase resolved partial discharge pattern (PRPD). Since there is no phase information within DC systems this method cannot be transferred to DC PD diagnostic. Furthermore, the behaviour of e.g. free-moving particles differs significantly at DC: Under the influence of a constant direct electric field, charge carriers can accumulate on particles’ surfaces. As a result, a particle can lift-off, oscillate between the inner conductor and the enclosure or rapidly bounces at just one electrode, which is known as firefly motion. Depending on the motion and the relative position of the particle to the electrodes, broadband electromagnetic PD pulses are emitted, which can be recorded by ultra-high frequency (UHF) measuring methods. PDs are often accompanied by light emissions at the particle’s tip which enables optical detection. This contribution investigates PD characteristics of free moving metallic particles in a commercially available 300 kV SF6-insulated HVDC-GIS. The influences of various defect parameters on the particle motion and the PD characteristic are evaluated experimentally. Several particle geometries, such as cylinder, lamella, spiral and sphere with different length, diameter and weight are determined. The applied DC voltage is increased stepwise from inception voltage up to UDC = ± 400 kV. Different physical detection methods are used simultaneously in a time-synchronized setup. Firstly, the electromagnetic waves emitted by the particle are recorded by an UHF measuring system. Secondly, a photomultiplier tube (PMT) detects light emission with a wavelength in the range of λ = 185…870 nm. Thirdly, a high-speed camera (HSC) tracks the particle’s motion trajectory with high accuracy. Furthermore, an electrically insulated electrode is attached to the grounded enclosure and connected to a current shunt in order to detect low frequency ion currents: The shunt measuring system’s sensitivity is in the range of 10 nA at a measuring bandwidth of bw = DC…1 MHz. Currents of charge carriers, which are generated at the particle’s tip migrate through the gas gap to the electrode and can be recorded by the current shunt. All recorded PD signals are analyzed in order to identify characteristic properties of different particles. This includes e.g. repetition rates and amplitudes of successive pulses, characteristic frequency ranges and detected signal energy of single PD pulses. Concluding, an advanced understanding of underlying physical phenomena particle motion in direct electric field can be derived.

Keywords: current shunt, free moving particles, high-speed imaging, HVDC-GIS, UHF

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7878 Evaluation of Tensile Strength of Natural Fibres Reinforced Epoxy Composites Using Fly Ash as Filler Material

Authors: Balwinder Singh, Veerpaul Kaur Mann

Abstract:

A composite material is formed by the combination of two or more phases or materials. Natural minerals-derived Basalt fiber is a kind of fiber being introduced in the polymer composite industry due to its good mechanical properties similar to synthetic fibers and low cost, environment friendly. Also, there is a rising trend towards the use of industrial wastes as fillers in polymer composites with the aim of improving the properties of the composites. The mechanical properties of the fiber-reinforced polymer composites are influenced by various factors like fiber length, fiber weight %, filler weight %, filler size, etc. Thus, a detailed study has been done on the characterization of short-chopped Basalt fiber-reinforced polymer matrix composites using fly ash as filler. Taguchi’s L9 orthogonal array has been used to develop the composites by considering fiber length (6, 9 and 12 mm), fiber weight % (25, 30 and 35 %) and filler weight % (0, 5 and 10%) as input parameters with their respective levels and a thorough analysis on the mechanical characteristics (tensile strength and impact strength) has been done using ANOVA analysis with the help of MINITAB14 software. The investigation revealed that fiber weight is the most significant parameter affecting tensile strength, followed by fiber length and fiber weight %, respectively, while impact characterization showed that fiber length is the most significant factor, followed by fly ash weight, respectively. Introduction of fly ash proved to be beneficial in both the characterization with enhanced values upto 5% fly ash weight. The present study on the natural fibres reinforced epoxy composites using fly ash as filler material to study the effect of input parameters on the tensile strength in order to maximize tensile strength of the composites. Fabrication of composites based on Taguchi L9 orthogonal array design of experiments by using three factors fibre type, fibre weight % and fly ash % with three levels of each factor. The Optimization of composition of natural fibre reinforces composites using ANOVA for obtaining maximum tensile strength on fabricated composites revealed that the natural fibres along with fly ash can be successfully used with epoxy resin to prepare polymer matrix composites with good mechanical properties. Paddy- Paddy fibre gives high elasticity to the fibre composite due to presence of approximately hexagonal structure of cellulose present in paddy fibre. Coir- Coir fibre gives less tensile strength than paddy fibre as Coir fibre is brittle in nature when it pulls breakage occurs showing less tensile strength. Banana- Banana fibre has the least tensile strength in comparison to the paddy & coir fibre due to less cellulose content. Higher fibre weight leads to reduction in tensile strength due to increased nuclei of air pockets. Increasing fly ash content reduces tensile strength due to nonbonding of fly ash particles with natural fibre. Fly ash is also not very strong as compared to the epoxy resin leading to reduction in tensile strength.

Keywords: tensile strength and epoxy resin. basalt Fiber, taguchi, polymer matrix, natural fiber

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7877 New Kinetic Effects in Spatial Distribution of Electron Flux and Excitation Rates in Glow Discharge Plasmas in Middle and High Pressures

Authors: Kirill D. Kapustin, Mikhail B. Krasilnikov, Anatoly A. Kudryavtsev

Abstract:

Physical formation mechanisms of differential electron fluxes is high pressure positive column gas discharge are discussed. It is shown that the spatial differential fluxes of the electrons are directed both inward and outward depending on the energy relaxation law. In some cases the direction of energy differential flux at intermediate energies (5-10eV) in whole volume, except region near the wall, appeared to be down directed, so electron in this region dissipate more energy than gain from axial electric field. Paradoxical behaviour of electron flux in spatial-energy space is presented.

Keywords: plasma kinetics, electron distribution function, excitation and radiation rates, local and nonlocal EDF

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7876 Testing Serum Proteome between Elite Sprinters and Long-Distance Runners

Authors: Hung-Chieh Chen, Kuo-Hui Wang, Tsu-Lin Yeh

Abstract:

Proteomics represent the performance of genomic complement proteins and the protein level on functional genomics. This study adopted proteomic strategies for comparing serum proteins among three groups: elite sprinter (sprint runner group, SR), long-distance runners (long-distance runner group, LDR), and the untrained control group (control group, CON). Purposes: This study aims to identify elite sprinters and long-distance runners’ serum protein and to provide a comparison of their serum proteome’ composition. Methods: Serum protein fractionations that separated by sodium dodecyl sulfate-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (SDS-PAGE) and analyzed by a quantitative nano-LC-MS/MS-based proteomic profiling. The one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Scheffe post hoc comparison (α= 0.05) was used to determine whether there is any significant difference in each protein level among the three groups. Results: (1) After analyzing the 307 identified proteins, there were 26 unique proteins in the SR group, and 18 unique proteins in the LDR group. (2) For the LDR group, 7 coagulation function-associated proteins’ expression levels were investigated: vitronectin, serum paraoxonase/arylesterase 1, fibulin-1, complement C3, vitamin K-dependent protein, inter-alpha-trypsin inhibitor heavy chain H3 and von Willebrand factor, and the findings show the seven coagulation function-associated proteins were significantly lower than the group of SR. (3) Comparing to the group of SR, this study found that the LDR group’s expression levels of the 2 antioxidant proteins (afamin and glutathione peroxidase 3) were also significantly lower. (4) The LDR group’s expression levels of seven immune function-related proteins (Ig gamma-3 chain C region, Ig lambda-like polypeptide 5, clusterin, complement C1s subcomponent, complement factor B, complement C4-A, complement C1q subcomponent subunit A) were also significantly lower than the group of SR. Conclusion: This study identified the potential serum protein markers for elite sprinters and long-distance runners. The changes in the regulation of coagulation, antioxidant, or immune function-specific proteins may also provide further clinical applications for these two different track athletes.

Keywords: biomarkers, coagulation, immune response, oxidative stress

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7875 Study on the Pavement Structural Performance of Highways in the North China Region Based on Pavement Distress and Ground Penetrating Radar

Authors: Mingwei Yi, Liujie Guo, Zongjun Pan, Xiang Lin, Xiaoming Yi

Abstract:

With the rapid expansion of road construction mileage in China, the scale of road maintenance needs has concurrently escalated. As the service life of roads extends, the design of pavement repair and maintenance emerges as a crucial component in preserving the excellent performance of the pavement. The remaining service life of asphalt pavement structure is a vital parameter in the lifecycle maintenance design of asphalt pavements. Based on an analysis of pavement structural integrity, this study introduces a characterization and assessment of the remaining life of existing asphalt pavement structures. It proposes indicators such as the transverse crack spacing and the length of longitudinal cracks. The transverse crack spacing decreases with an increase in maintenance intervals and with the extended use of semi-rigid base layer structures, although this trend becomes less pronounced after maintenance intervals exceed 4 years. The length of longitudinal cracks increases with longer maintenance intervals, but this trend weakens after five years. This system can support the enhancement of standardization and scientific design in highway maintenance decision-making processes.

Keywords: structural integrity, highways, pavement evaluation, asphalt concrete pavement

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7874 Visualization of Wave Propagation in Monocoupled System with Effective Negative Stiffness, Effective Negative Mass, and Inertial Amplifier

Authors: Abhigna Bhatt, Arnab Banerjee

Abstract:

A periodic system with only a single coupling degree of freedom is called a monocoupled system. Monocoupled systems with mechanisms like mass in the mass system generates effective negative mass, mass connected with rigid links generates inertial amplification, and spring-mass connected with a rigid link generateseffective negative stiffness. In this paper, the representative unit cell is introduced, considering all three mechanisms combined. Further, the dynamic stiffness matrix of the unit cell is constructed, and the dispersion relation is obtained by applying the Bloch theorem. The frequency response function is also calculated for the finite length of periodic unit cells. Moreover, the input displacement signal is given to the finite length of periodic structure and using inverse Fourier transform to visualize the wave propagation in the time domain. This visualization explains the sudden attenuation in metamaterial due to energy dissipation by an embedded resonator at the resonance frequency. The visualization created for wave propagation is found necessary to understand the insights of physics behind the attenuation characteristics of the system.

Keywords: mono coupled system, negative effective mass, negative effective stiffness, inertial amplifier, fourier transform

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7873 The Biomechanical Assessment of Balance and Gait for Stroke Patients and the Implications in the Diagnosis and Rehabilitation

Authors: A. Alzahrani, G. Arnold, W. Wang

Abstract:

Background: Stroke commonly occurs in middle-aged and elderly populations, and the diagnosis of early stroke is still difficult. Patients who have suffered a stroke have different balance and gait patterns from healthy people. Advanced techniques of motion analysis have been routinely used in the clinical assessment of cerebral palsy. However, so far, little research has been done on the direct diagnosis of early stroke patients using motion analysis. Objectives: The aim of this study was to investigate whether patients with stroke have different balance and gait from healthy people and which biomechanical parameters could be used to predict and diagnose potential patients who are at a potential risk to stroke. Methods: Thirteen patients with stroke were recruited as subjects whose gait and balance was analysed. Twenty normal subjects at the matched age participated in this study as a control group. All subjects’ gait and balance were collected using Vicon Nexus® to obtain the gait parameters, kinetic, and kinematic parameters of the hip, knee, and ankle joints in three planes of both limbs. Participants stood on force platforms to perform a single leg balance test. Then, they were asked to walk along a 10 m walkway at their comfortable speed. Participants performed 6 trials of single-leg balance for each side and 10 trials of walking. From the recorded trials, three good ones were analysed using the Vicon Plug-in-Gait model to obtain gait parameters, e.g., walking speed, cadence, stride length, and joint parameters, e.g., joint angle, force, moments, etc. Result: The temporal-spatial variables of Stroke subjects were compared with the healthy subjects; it was found that there was a significant difference (p < 0.05) between the groups. The step length, speed, cadence were lower in stroke subjects as compared to the healthy groups. The stroke patients group showed significantly decreased in gait speed (mean and SD: 0.85 ± 0.33 m/s), cadence ( 96.71 ± 16.14 step/min), and step length (0.509 ± 017 m) in compared to healthy people group whereas the gait speed was 1.2 ± 0.11 m/s, cadence 112 ± 8.33 step/min, and step length 0.648 ± 0.43 m. Moreover, it was observed that patients with stroke have significant differences in the ankle, hip, and knee joints’ kinematics in the sagittal and coronal planes. Also, the result showed that there was a significant difference between groups in the single-leg balance test, e.g., maintaining single-leg stance time in the stroke patients showed shorter duration (5.97 ± 6.36 s) in compared to healthy people group (14.36 ± 10.20 s). Conclusion: Our result showed that there are significantly differences between stroke patients and healthy subjects in the various aspects of gait analysis and balance test, as a consequences of these findings some of the biomechanical parameters such as joints kinematics, gait parameters, and single-leg stance balance test could be used in clinical practice to predict and diagnose potential patients who are at a high risk of further stroke.

Keywords: gait analysis, kinetics, kinematics, single-leg stance, Stroke

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7872 Genome-Wide Analysis of Long Terminal Repeat (LTR) Retrotransposons in Rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus)

Authors: Zeeshan Khan, Faisal Nouroz, Shumaila Noureen

Abstract:

European or common rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) belongs to class Mammalia, order Lagomorpha of family Leporidae. They are distributed worldwide and are native to Europe (France, Spain and Portugal) and Africa (Morocco and Algeria). LTR retrotransposons are major Class I mobile genetic elements of eukaryotic genomes and play a crucial role in genome expansion, evolution and diversification. They were mostly annotated in various genomes by conventional approaches of homology searches, which restricted the annotation of novel elements. Present work involved de novo identification of LTR retrotransposons by LTR_FINDER in haploid genome of rabbit (2247.74 Mb) distributed in 22 chromosomes, of which 7,933 putative full-length or partial copies were identified containing 69.38 Mb of elements, accounting 3.08% of the genome. Highest copy numbers (731) were found on chromosome 7, followed by chromosome 12 (705), while the lowest copy numbers (27) were detected in chromosome 19 with no elements identified from chromosome 21 due to partially sequenced chromosome, unidentified nucleotides (N) and repeated simple sequence repeats (SSRs). The identified elements ranged in sizes from 1.2 - 25.8 Kb with average sizes between 2-10 Kb. Highest percentage (4.77%) of elements was found in chromosome 15, while lowest (0.55%) in chromosome 19. The most frequent tRNA type was Arginine present in majority of the elements. Based on gained results, it was estimated that rabbit exhibits 15,866 copies having 137.73 Mb of elements accounting 6.16% of diploid genome (44 chromosomes). Further molecular analyses will be helpful in chromosomal localization and distribution of these elements on chromosomes.

Keywords: rabbit, LTR retrotransposons, genome, chromosome

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7871 Investigation of the Fading Time Effects on Microstructure and Mechanical Properties in Vermicular Cast Iron

Authors: Mehmet Ekici

Abstract:

In this study, the fading time affecting the mechanical properties and microstructures of vermicular cast iron were studied. Pig iron and steel scrap weighing about 12 kg were charged into the high-frequency induction furnace crucible and completely melted for production of vermicular cast iron. The slag was skimmed using a common flux. After fading time was set at 1. 3 and 5 minutes. In this way, three vermicular cast iron was produced that same composition but different phase structures. The microstructure of specimens was investigated, and uni-axial tensile test and the Charpy impact test were performed, and their micro-hardness measurements were done in order to characterize the mechanical behaviours of vermicular cast iron.

Keywords: vermicular cast iron, fading time, hardness, tensile test and impact test

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7870 Assessment of Post-surgical Donor-Site Morbidity in Vastus lateralis Free Flap for Head and Neck Reconstructive Surgery: An Observational Study

Authors: Ishith Seth, Lyndel Hewitt, Takako Yabe, James Wykes, Jonathan Clark, Bruce Ashford

Abstract:

Background: Vastus lateralis (VL) can be used to reconstruct defects of the head and neck. Whilst the advantages are documented, donor-site morbidity is not well described. This study aimed to assess donor-site morbidity after VL flap harvest. The results will determine future directions for preventative and post-operative care to improve patient health outcomes. Methods: Ten participants (mean age 55 years) were assessed for the presence of donor-site morbidity after VL harvest. Musculoskeletal (pain, muscle strength, muscle length, tactile sensation), quality of life (SF-12), and lower limb function (lower extremity function, gait (function and speed), sit to stand were assessed using validated and standardized procedures. Outcomes were compared to age-matched healthy reference values or the non-operative side. Analyses were conducted using descriptive statistics and non-parametric tests. Results: There was no difference in muscle strength (knee extension), muscle length, ability to sit-to-stand, or gait function (all P > 0.05). Knee flexor muscle strength was significantly less on the operated leg compared to the non-operated leg (P=0.02) and walking speed was slower than age-matched healthy values (P<0.001). Thigh tactile sensation was impaired in 89% of participants. Quality of life was significantly less for the physical health component of the SF-12 (P<0.001). The mental health component of the SF-12 was similar to healthy controls (P=0.26). Conclusion: There was no effect on donor site morbidity with regards to knee extensor strength, pain, walking function, ability to sit-to-stand, and muscle length. VL harvest affected donor-site knee flexion strength, walking speed, tactile sensation, and physical health-related quality of life.

Keywords: vastus lateralis, morbidity, head and neck, surgery, donor-site morbidity

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7869 Taking the Whole Picture to Your Supply Chain; Customers Will Take Selfies When Expectations Are Met

Authors: Marcelo Sifuentes López

Abstract:

Strategic performance definition and follow-up processes have to be clear in order to provide value in today’s competitive world. Customer expectations must be linked to internal organization strategic objectives leading to profitability and supported by visibility and flexibility among others.By taking a whole picture of the supply chain, the executive, and its team will define the current supply chain situation and an insight into potential opportunities to improve processes and provide value to main stakeholders. A systematic performance evaluation process based on operational and financial indicators defined by customer requirements needs to be implemented and periodically reviewed in order to mitigate costs and risks on time.Supplier long term relationship and collaboration plays a key role using resources available, real-time communication, innovation and new ways to capitalize global opportunities like emerging markets; efforts have to focus on the reduction of uncertainties in supply and demand. Leadership has to promote consistency of communication and execution involving suppliers, customers, and the entire organization through the support of a strategic sourcing methodology that assure the targeted competitive strategy and sustainable growth. As customer requirements and expectations are met, results could be captured in a casual picture like a “selfie”; where outcomes could be perceived from any desired angle by them; or like most “selfies”, can be taken with a camera held at arm's length by a third party company rather than using a self-timer.

Keywords: supply chain management, competitive advantage, value creation, collaboration and innovation, global marketplace

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7868 By-Line Analysis of Determinants Insurance Premiums : Evidence from Tunisian Market

Authors: Nadia Sghaier

Abstract:

In this paper, we aim to identify the determinants of the life and non-life insurance premiums of different lines for the case of the Tunisian insurance market over a recent period from 1997 to 2019. The empirical analysis is conducted using the linear cointegration techniques in the panel data framework, which allow both long and short-run relationships. The obtained results show evidence of long-run relationship between premiums, losses, and financial variables (stock market indices and interest rate). Furthermore, we find that the short-run effect of explanatory variables differs across lines. This finding has important implications for insurance tarification and regulation.

Keywords: insurance premiums, lines, Tunisian insurance market, cointegration approach in panel data

Procedia PDF Downloads 191
7867 Identification of Outliers in Flood Frequency Analysis: Comparison of Original and Multiple Grubbs-Beck Test

Authors: Ayesha S. Rahman, Khaled Haddad, Ataur Rahman

Abstract:

At-site flood frequency analysis is used to estimate flood quantiles when at-site record length is reasonably long. In Australia, FLIKE software has been introduced for at-site flood frequency analysis. The advantage of FLIKE is that, for a given application, the user can compare a number of most commonly adopted probability distributions and parameter estimation methods relatively quickly using a windows interface. The new version of FLIKE has been incorporated with the multiple Grubbs and Beck test which can identify multiple numbers of potentially influential low flows. This paper presents a case study considering six catchments in eastern Australia which compares two outlier identification tests (original Grubbs and Beck test and multiple Grubbs and Beck test) and two commonly applied probability distributions (Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and Log Pearson type 3 (LP3)) using FLIKE software. It has been found that the multiple Grubbs and Beck test when used with LP3 distribution provides more accurate flood quantile estimates than when LP3 distribution is used with the original Grubbs and Beck test. Between these two methods, the differences in flood quantile estimates have been found to be up to 61% for the six study catchments. It has also been found that GEV distribution (with L moments) and LP3 distribution with the multiple Grubbs and Beck test provide quite similar results in most of the cases; however, a difference up to 38% has been noted for flood quantiles for annual exceedance probability (AEP) of 1 in 100 for one catchment. These findings need to be confirmed with a greater number of stations across other Australian states.

Keywords: floods, FLIKE, probability distributions, flood frequency, outlier

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7866 The Effect of Soil in the Allelopathic Potential of Artemisia herba-alba and Oudneya africana Crude Powder on Growth of Weeds

Authors: Salhi Nesrine, Salama M. El-Darier, Halilat M. El-Taher

Abstract:

The present study aimed to investigate the effect of two type of soil (clay and sandy soils) in the potential allelopathic effects of Artemisia herba-alba, Oudneya africana crude powder on some growth parameters and phytomass of two weeds (Bromus tectorum and Melilotus indica) under laboratory conditions (pot experiment). The experimental findings have reported that the donor species crude powder concentrations were suppressing to shoot length (SL), root length (RL), fresh and dry weight of shoot and root (SFw, RFw, SDw and RDw, respectively and the leaf number (LN)) in both soil types and caused a gradual reduction particularly when they are high. However, the reduction degree was varied and species, concentration dependent. The suppressive effect of all the eight donors on the two weedy species was in the following order Bromus tectorum> Melilotus indica. Generally, the growth parameters of two recipient species were significantly decreased with the increase of each of the donor species crude powder concentration levels. Concerning the type of sol the t-test indicated that the difference was insignificant between clay and sandy soils.

Keywords: allelopathy, soil, Artemisia herba-alba, Oudneya africana, growth, weeds

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7865 Effect of Phytohormones on the Development and Nutraceutical Characteristics of the Fruit Capsicum annuum

Authors: Rossy G. Olan Villegas, Gerardo Acosta Garcia, Aurea Bernardino Nicanor, Leopoldo Gonzalez Cruz, Humberto Ramirez Medina

Abstract:

Capsicum annuum is a crop of agricultural and economic importance in Mexico and other countries. The fruit (pepper) contains bioactive components such as carotenoids, phenolic compounds and capsaicinoids that improve health. However, pepper cultivation is affected by biotic and abiotic factors that decrease yield. Some phytohormones like gibberellins and auxins induce the formation and development of fruit in several plants. In this study, we evaluated the effect of the exogenous application of phytohormones like gibberellic acid and indolbutyric acid on fruit development of jalapeno pepper plants, the protein profile of plant tissues, the accumulation of bioactive compounds and antioxidant activity in the pericarp and seeds. For that, plants were sprinkled with these phytohormones. The fruit collection for the control, indolbutyric acid and gibberellic acid treatments was 7 peppers per plant; however, for the treatment that combines indolbutyric acid and gibberellic acid, a fruit with the shortest length (1.52 ± 1.00 cm) and weight (0.41 ± 1.0 g) was collected compared to fruits of plants grown under other treatments. The length (4,179 ± 0,130 cm) and weight of the fruit (8,949 ± 0.583 g) increased in plants treated with indolbutyric acid, but these characteristics decreased with the application of GA3 (length of 3,349 ± 0.127 cm and a weight 4,429 ± 0.144 g). The content of carotenes and phenolic compounds increased in plants treated with GA3 (1,733 ± 0.092 and 1,449 ± 0.009 mg / g, respectively) or indolbutyric acid (1,164 ± 0.042 and 0.970 ± 0.003 mg / g). However, this effect was not observed in plants treated with both phytohormones (0.238 ± 0.021 and 0.218 ± 0.004 mg / g). Capsaicin content was higher in all treatments; but it was more noticeable in plants treated with both phytohormones, the value being 0.913 ± 0.001 mg / g (three times greater in amount). The antioxidant activity was measured by 3 different assays, 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH), antioxidant power of ferric reduction (FRAP) and 2,2'-Azinobis-3-ethyl-benzothiazoline-6-sulfonic acid ( ABTS) to find the minimum inhibitory concentration of the reducing radical (IC50 and EC50). Significant differences were observed from the application of the phytohormone, being the fruits treated with gibberellins, which had a greater accumulation of bioactive compounds. Our results suggest that the application of phytohormones modifies the development of fruit and its content of bioactive compounds.

Keywords: auxins, capsaicinoids, carotenoids, gibberellins

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7864 Buckling Analysis of 2D Frames Using the Modified Newmark Method

Authors: Seyed Amin Vakili, Sahar Sadat Vakili, Seyed Ehsan Vakili, Nader Abdoli Yazdi

Abstract:

The main purpose of this paper is to present the Modified Newmark Method of buckling analysis frame considering the effect of the axial load. The discussion will be restricted to plane frameworks containing a constant cross-section for each element. In addition, it is assumed that the frames are prevented from out-of-plane deflection. In this method, stiffness matrix of the structure is considered to be constant. The most important advantage of such a method is that it obtains both upper and lower critical loads. The advanced of the present method is fast convergence, ability to use computer simulations, and ability to model structures with semi-rigid support conditions using linear and rotational spring.

Keywords: buckling, stability, frame, modified newmark method

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7863 Barriers and Facilitators to Physical Activity Among Older Adults Living in Long‐Term Care Facilities: A Systematic Review with Qualitative Evidence Synthesis

Authors: Ying Shi, June Zhang, Lu Shao, Xiyan Xie, Aidi Lao, Zhangan Wang

Abstract:

Background: Low levels of physical activity are associated with poorer health outcomes, and this situation is more critical in older adults living in long‐term care facilities. Objectives: To systematically identify, appraise, and synthesize current qualitative research evidence regarding the barriers and facilitators to physical activity as reported by older adults and care staff in long‐term care facilities. Design: This is a systematic review with qualitative evidence synthesis adhering to PRISMA guidelines. Methods: We conducted a systematic search on PubMed, Science Citation Index Expanded, Social Sciences Citation Index, EMBASE, CINAHL, and PsychInfo databases from inception until 30 June 2023. Thematic synthesis was undertaken to identify the barriers and facilitators relating to physical activity. Then, we mapped them onto the Capability, Opportunity, Motivation, and Behavior model and Theoretical Domains Framework. Methodological quality was assessed using the CASP Qualitative Studies Checklist, and confidence in review findings was assessed using the GRADE-CERQual approach. Results: We included 32 studies after screening 10496 citations and 177 full texts. Seven themes and 17 subthemes were identified relating to barriers and facilitators influencing physical activity in elderly residents. The main themes were mapped onto COM-B) model-Capability (physical activity knowledge gaps and individual health issues), Opportunity (social support and macro-level resources) and Motivation (health beliefs, fear of falling or injury, and personal and social incentives to physical activity). Most subthemes were graded as high (n = 9) or moderate (n = 3) confidence. Conclusions and Implications: Our comprehensive synthesis of 32 studies provides a wealth of knowledge of barriers and facilitators to physical activity from both residents and care staff’s perspectives. Intervention components were also suggested within the context of long‐term care facilities. End users such as older residents, care staff, and researchers can have confidence in our findings when formulating policies and guidance on promoting physical activity among elderly residents in long‐term care facilities.

Keywords: long‐term care, older adults, physical activity, qualitative, systematic review

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7862 The Effect of Exposure to High Noise Level on the Performance and Rate of Error in Manual Activities

Authors: Zahra Zamanian, Alireza Zamanian, Jafar Hasanzadeh

Abstract:

Background: Unwanted sound, as one of the most important physical factors in the majority of production units, imposes a great number of problems on the industrial workers. Sound is one of the environmental factors which can cause physical as well as psychological damages and also affects the individuals’ performance and productivity. Therefore, the present study aimed to determine the effect of noise exposure on human performance. Methods: The present study assessed the effect of noise on the performance of 50 students of Shiraz University of Medical Sciences (25 males and 25 females) at the sound pressures of 70, 90, and 110 dB by using two factors of physical features and the creation of different conditions of sound pressure source as well as applying Two-Arm coordination Test. Results: The results of the present study revealed no significant difference between male and female subjects as well as different conditions of creating sound pressure regarding the length of performance (p> 0.05). In addition, as the sound pressure increased, the length of performance increased, as well. According to the results, no significant difference was found between the performance at 70 and 90 dB. On the other hand, the performance at 110 dB was significantly different from the performance at 70 and 90 dB (p<0.05 and p<0.001). Conclusion: In general, as the sound pressure increases, the performance decreases which results in a considerable increase in the individuals’ rate of error.

Keywords: physical factors, two-arm coordination test, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, noise

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7861 Laparoscopic Resection Shows Comparable Outcomes to Open Thoracotomy for Thoracoabdominal Neuroblastomas: A Meta-Analysis and Systematic Review

Authors: Peter J. Fusco, Dave M. Mathew, Chris Mathew, Kenneth H. Levy, Kathryn S. Varghese, Stephanie Salazar-Restrepo, Serena M. Mathew, Sofia Khaja, Eamon Vega, Mia Polizzi, Alyssa Mullane, Adham Ahmed

Abstract:

Background: Laparoscopic (LS) removal of neuroblastomas in children has been reported to offer favorable outcomes compared to the conventional open thoracotomy (OT) procedure. Critical perioperative measures such as blood loss, operative time, length of stay, and time to postoperative chemotherapy have all supported laparoscopic use rather than its more invasive counterpart. Herein, a pairwise meta-analysis was performed comparing perioperative outcomes between LS and OT in thoracoabdominal neuroblastoma cases. Methods: A comprehensive literature search was performed on PubMed, Ovid EMBASE, and Scopus databases to identify studies comparing the outcomes of pediatric patients with thoracoabdominal neuroblastomas undergoing resection via OT or LS. After deduplication, 4,227 studies were identified and subjected to initial title screening with exclusion and inclusion criteria to ensure relevance. When studies contained overlapping cohorts, only the larger series were included. Primary outcomes include estimated blood loss (EBL), hospital length of stay (LOS), and mortality, while secondary outcomes were tumor recurrence, post-operative complications, and operation length. The “meta” and “metafor” packages were used in R, version 4.0.2, to pool risk ratios (RR) or standardized mean differences (SMD) in addition to their 95% confidence intervals in the random effects model via the Mantel-Haenszel method. Heterogeneity between studies was assessed using the I² test, while publication bias was assessed via funnel plot. Results: The pooled analysis included 209 patients from 5 studies (141 OT, 68 LS). Of the included studies, 2 originated from the United States, 1 from Toronto, 1 from China, and 1was from a Japanese center. Mean age between study cohorts ranged from 2.4 to 5.3 years old, with female patients occupying between 30.8% to 50% of the study populations. No statistically significant difference was found between the two groups for LOS (SMD -1.02; p=0.083), mortality (RR 0.30; p=0.251), recurrence(RR 0.31; p=0.162), post-operative complications (RR 0.73; p=0.732), or operation length (SMD -0.07; p=0.648). Of note, LS appeared to be protective in the analysis for EBL, although it did not reach statistical significance (SMD -0.4174; p= 0.051). Conclusion: Despite promising literature assessing LS removal of pediatric neuroblastomas, results showed it was non-superior to OT for any explored perioperative outcomes. Given the limited comparative data on the subject, it is evident that randomized trials are necessary to further the efficacy of the conclusions reached.

Keywords: laparoscopy, neuroblastoma, thoracoabdominal, thoracotomy

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7860 Healthcare Associated Infections in an Intensive Care Unit in Tunisia: Incidence and Risk Factors

Authors: Nabiha Bouafia, Asma Ben Cheikh, Asma Ammar, Olfa Ezzi, Mohamed Mahjoub, Khaoula Meddeb, Imed Chouchene, Hamadi Boussarsar, Mansour Njah

Abstract:

Background: Hospital acquired infections (HAI) cause significant morbidity, mortality, length of stay and hospital costs, especially in the intensive care unit (ICU), because of the debilitated immune systems of their patients and exposure to invasive devices. The aims of this study were to determine the rate and the risk factors of HAI in an ICU of a university hospital in Tunisia. Materials/Methods: A prospective study was conducted in the 8-bed adult medical ICU of a University Hospital (Sousse Tunisia) during 14 months from September 15th, 2015 to November 15th, 2016. Patients admitted for more than 48h were included. Their surveillance was stopped after the discharge from ICU or death. HAIs were defined according to standard Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria. Risk factors were analyzed by conditional stepwise logistic regression. The p-value of < 0.05 was considered significant. Results: During the study, 192 patients had admitted for more than 48 hours. Their mean age was 59.3± 18.20 years and 57.1% were male. Acute respiratory failure was the main reason of admission (72%). The mean SAPS II score calculated at admission was 32.5 ± 14 (range: 6 - 78). The exposure to the mechanical ventilation (MV) and the central venous catheter were observed in 169 (88 %) and 144 (75 %) patients, respectively. Seventy-three patients (38.02%) developed 94 HAIs. The incidence density of HAIs was 41.53 per 1000 patient day. Mortality rate in patients with HAIs was 65.8 %( n= 48). Regarding the type of infection, Ventilator Associated Pneumoniae (VAP) and central venous catheter Associated Infections (CVC AI) were the most frequent with Incidence density: 14.88/1000 days of MV for VAP and 20.02/1000 CVC days for CVC AI. There were 5 Peripheral Venous Catheter Associated Infections, 2 urinary tract infections, and 21 other HAIs. Gram-negative bacteria were the most common germs identified in HAIs: Multidrug resistant Acinetobacter Baumanii (45%) and Klebsiella pneumoniae (10.96%) were the most frequently isolated. Univariate analysis showed that transfer from another hospital department (p= 0.001), intubation (p < 10-4), tracheostomy (p < 10-4), age (p=0.028), grade of acute respiratory failure (p=0.01), duration of sedation (p < 10-4), number of CVC (p < 10-4), length of mechanical ventilation (p < 10-4) and length of stay (p < 10-4), were associated to high risk of HAIS in ICU. Multivariate analysis reveals that independent risk factors for HAIs are: transfer from another hospital department: OR=13.44, IC 95% [3.9, 44.2], p < 10-4, duration of sedation: OR= 1.18, IC 95% [1.049, 1.325], p=0.006, high number of CVC: OR=2.78, IC 95% [1.73, 4.487], p < 10-4, and length of stay in ICU: OR= 1.14, IC 95% [1.066,1.22], p < 10-4. Conclusion: Prevention of nosocomial infections in ICUs is a priority of health care systems all around the world. Yet, their control requires an understanding of epidemiological data collected in these units.

Keywords: healthcare associated infections, incidence, intensive care unit, risk factors

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7859 Electrical Machine Winding Temperature Estimation Using Stateful Long Short-Term Memory Networks (LSTM) and Truncated Backpropagation Through Time (TBPTT)

Authors: Yujiang Wu

Abstract:

As electrical machine (e-machine) power density re-querulents become more stringent in vehicle electrification, mounting a temperature sensor for e-machine stator windings becomes increasingly difficult. This can lead to higher manufacturing costs, complicated harnesses, and reduced reliability. In this paper, we propose a deep-learning method for predicting electric machine winding temperature, which can either replace the sensor entirely or serve as a backup to the existing sensor. We compare the performance of our method, the stateful long short-term memory networks (LSTM) with truncated backpropagation through time (TBTT), with that of linear regression, as well as stateless LSTM with/without residual connection. Our results demonstrate the strength of combining stateful LSTM and TBTT in tackling nonlinear time series prediction problems with long sequence lengths. Additionally, in industrial applications, high-temperature region prediction accuracy is more important because winding temperature sensing is typically used for derating machine power when the temperature is high. To evaluate the performance of our algorithm, we developed a temperature-stratified MSE. We propose a simple but effective data preprocessing trick to improve the high-temperature region prediction accuracy. Our experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method in accurately predicting winding temperature, particularly in high-temperature regions, while also reducing manufacturing costs and improving reliability.

Keywords: deep learning, electrical machine, functional safety, long short-term memory networks (LSTM), thermal management, time series prediction

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7858 Investigating the Flow Physics within Vortex-Shockwave Interactions

Authors: Frederick Ferguson, Dehua Feng, Yang Gao

Abstract:

No doubt, current CFD tools have a great many technical limitations, and active research is being done to overcome these limitations. Current areas of limitations include vortex-dominated flows, separated flows, and turbulent flows. In general, turbulent flows are unsteady solutions to the fluid dynamic equations, and instances of these solutions can be computed directly from the equations. One of the approaches commonly implemented is known as the ‘direct numerical simulation’, DNS. This approach requires a spatial grid that is fine enough to capture the smallest length scale of the turbulent fluid motion. This approach is called the ‘Kolmogorov scale’ model. It is of interest to note that the Kolmogorov scale model must be captured throughout the domain of interest and at a correspondingly small-time step. In typical problems of industrial interest, the ratio of the length scale of the domain to the Kolmogorov length scale is so great that the required grid set becomes prohibitively large. As a result, the available computational resources are usually inadequate for DNS related tasks. At this time in its development, DNS is not applicable to industrial problems. In this research, an attempt is made to develop a numerical technique that is capable of delivering DNS quality solutions at the scale required by the industry. To date, this technique has delivered preliminary results for both steady and unsteady, viscous and inviscid, compressible and incompressible, and for both high and low Reynolds number flow fields that are very accurate. Herein, it is proposed that the Integro-Differential Scheme (IDS) be applied to a set of vortex-shockwave interaction problems with the goal of investigating the nonstationary physics within the resulting interaction regions. In the proposed paper, the IDS formulation and its numerical error capability will be described. Further, the IDS will be used to solve the inviscid and viscous Burgers equation, with the goal of analyzing their solutions over a considerable length of time, thus demonstrating the unsteady capabilities of the IDS. Finally, the IDS will be used to solve a set of fluid dynamic problems related to flow that involves highly vortex interactions. Plans are to solve the following problems: the travelling wave and vortex problems over considerable lengths of time, the normal shockwave–vortex interaction problem for low supersonic conditions and the reflected oblique shock–vortex interaction problem. The IDS solutions obtained in each of these solutions will be explored further in efforts to determine the distributed density gradients and vorticity, as well as the Q-criterion. Parametric studies will be conducted to determine the effects of the Mach number on the intensity of vortex-shockwave interactions.

Keywords: vortex dominated flows, shockwave interactions, high Reynolds number, integro-differential scheme

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7857 Development of Ultrasounf Probe Holder for Automatic Scanning Asymmetric Reflector

Authors: Nabilah Ibrahim, Hafiz Mohd Zaini, Wan Fatin Liyana Mutalib

Abstract:

Ultrasound equipment or machine is capable to scan in two dimensional (2D) areas. However there are some limitations occur during scanning an object. The problem will occur when scanning process that involving the asymmetric object. In this project, the ultrasound probe holder for asymmetric reflector scanning in 3D image is proposed to make easier for scanning the phantom or object that has asymmetric shape. Initially, the constructed asymmetric phantom that construct will be used in 2D scanning. Next, the asymmetric phantom will be interfaced by the movement of ultrasound probe holder using the Arduino software. After that, the performance of the ultrasound probe holder will be evaluated by using the various asymmetric reflector or phantom in constructing a 3D image

Keywords: ultrasound 3D images, axial and lateral resolution, asymmetric reflector, Arduino software

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7856 Design of an Eddy Current Brake System for the Use of Roller Coasters Based on a Human Factors Engineering Approach

Authors: Adam L. Yanagihara, Yong Seok Park

Abstract:

The goal of this paper is to converge upon a design of a brake system that could be used for a roller coaster found at an amusement park. It was necessary to find what could be deemed as a “comfortable” deceleration so that passengers do not feel as if they are suddenly jerked and pressed against the restraining harnesses. A human factors engineering approach was taken in order to determine this deceleration. Using a previous study that tested the deceleration of transit vehicles, it was found that a -0.45 G deceleration would be used as a design requirement to build this system around. An adjustable linear eddy current brake using permanent magnets would be the ideal system to use in order to meet this design requirement. Anthropometric data were then used to determine a realistic weight and length of the roller coaster that the brake was being designed for. The weight and length data were then factored into magnetic brake force equations. These equations were used to determine how the brake system and the brake run layout would be designed. A final design for the brake was determined and it was found that a total of 12 brakes would be needed with a maximum braking distance of 53.6 m in order to stop a roller coaster travelling at its top speed and loaded to maximum capacity. This design is derived from theoretical calculations, but is within the realm of feasibility.

Keywords: eddy current brake, engineering design, design synthesis, human factors engineering

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7855 Co-Integration and Error Correction Mechanism of Supply Response of Sugarcane in Pakistan (1980-2012)

Authors: Himayatullah Khan

Abstract:

This study estimates supply response function of sugarcane in Pakistan from 1980-81 to 2012-13. The study uses co-integration approach and error correction mechanism. Sugarcane production, area and price series were tested for unit root using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF). The study found that these series were stationary at their first differenced level. Using the Augmented Engle-Granger test and Cointegrating Regression Durbin-Watson (CRDW) test, the study found that “production and price” and “area and price” were co-integrated suggesting that the two sets of time series had long-run or equilibrium relationship. The results of the error correction models for the two sets of series showed that there was disequilibrium in the short run there may be disequilibrium. The Engle-Granger residual may be thought of as the equilibrium error which can be used to tie the short-run behavior of the dependent variable to its long-run value. The Granger-Causality test results showed that log of price granger caused both the long of production and log of area whereas, the log of production and log of area Granger caused each other.

Keywords: co-integration, error correction mechanism, Granger-causality, sugarcane, supply response

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7854 Evaluation Method for Fouling Risk Using Quartz Crystal Microbalance

Authors: Natsuki Kishizawa, Keiko Nakano, Hussam Organji, Amer Shaiban, Mohammad Albeirutty

Abstract:

One of the most important tasks in operating desalination plants using a reverse osmosis (RO) method is preventing RO membrane fouling caused by foulants found in seawater. Optimal design of the pre-treatment process of RO process for plants enables the reduction of foulants. Therefore, a quantitative evaluation of the fouling risk in pre-treated water, which is fed to RO, is required for optimal design. Some measurement methods for water quality such as silt density index (SDI) and total organic carbon (TOC) have been conservatively applied for evaluations. However, these methods have not been effective in some situations for evaluating the fouling risk of RO feed water. Furthermore, stable management of plants will be possible by alerts and appropriate control of the pre-treatment process by using the method if it can be applied to the inline monitoring system for the fouling risk of RO feed water. The purpose of this study is to develop a method to evaluate the fouling risk of RO feed water. We applied a quartz crystal microbalance (QCM) to measure the amount of foulants found in seawater using a sensor whose surface is coated with polyamide thin film, which is the main material of a RO membrane. The increase of the weight of the sensor after a certain length of time in which the sample water passes indicates the fouling risk of the sample directly. We classified the values as “FP: Fouling Potential”. The characteristics of the method are to measure the very small amount of substances in seawater in a short time: < 2h, and from a small volume of the sample water: < 50mL. Using some RO cell filtration units, a higher correlation between the pressure increase given by RO fouling and the FP from the method than SDI and TOC was confirmed in the laboratory-scale test. Then, to establish the correlation in the actual bench-scale RO membrane module, and to confirm the feasibility of the monitoring system as a control tool for the pre-treatment process, we have started a long-term test at an experimental desalination site by the Red Sea in Jeddah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Implementing inline equipment for the method made it possible to measure FP intermittently (4 times per day) and automatically. Moreover, for two 3-month long operations, the RO operation pressure among feed water samples of different qualities was compared. The pressure increase through a RO membrane module was observed at a high FP RO unit in which feed water was treated by a cartridge filter only. On the other hand, the pressure increase was not observed at a low FP RO unit in which feed water was treated by an ultra-filter during the operation. Therefore, the correlation in an actual scale RO membrane was established in two runs of two types of feed water. The result suggested that the FP method enables the evaluation of the fouling risk of RO feed water.

Keywords: fouling, monitoring, QCM, water quality

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7853 Determinants of Long Acting Reversible Contraception Utilization among Women (15-49) in Uganda: Analysis of 2016 PMA2020 Uganda Survey

Authors: Nulu Nanono

Abstract:

Background: The Ugandan national health policy and the national population policy all recognize the need to increase access to quality, affordable, acceptable and sustainable contraceptive services for all people but provision and utilization of quality services remains low. Two contraceptive methods are categorized as long-acting temporary methods: intrauterine contraceptive devices (IUCDs) and implants. Copper-containing IUCDs, generally available in Ministry of Health (MoH) family planning programs and is effective for at least 12 years while Implants, depending on the type, last for up to three to seven years. Uganda’s current policy and political environment are favorable towards achieving national access to quality and safe contraceptives for all people as evidenced by increasing government commitments and innovative family planning programs. Despite the increase of modern contraception use from 14% to 26%, long acting reversible contraceptive (LARC) utilization has relatively remained low with less than 5% using IUDs & Implants which in a way explains Uganda’s persistent high fertility rates. Main question/hypothesis: The purpose of the study was to examine relationship between the demographic, socio-economic characteristics of women, health facility factors and long acting reversible contraception utilization. Methodology: LARC utilization was investigated comprising of the two questions namely are you or your partner currently doing something or using any method to delay or avoid getting pregnant? And which method or methods are you using? Data for the study was sourced from the 2016 Uganda Performance Monitoring and Accountability 2020 Survey comprising of 3816 female respondents aged 15 to 49 years. The analysis was done using the Chi-squared tests and the probit regression at bivariate and multivariate levels respectively. The model was further tested for validity and normality of the residuals using the Sharipo wilks test and test for kurtosis and skewness. Results: The results showed the model the age, parity, marital status, region, knowledge of LARCs, availability of LARCs to be significantly associated with long acting contraceptive utilization with p value of less than 0.05. At the multivariate analysis level, women who had higher parities (0.000) tertiary education (0.013), no knowledge about LARCs (0.006) increases their probability of using LARCs. Furthermore while women age 45-49, those who live in the eastern region reduces their probability of using LARCs. Knowledge contribution: The findings of this study join the debate of prior research in this field and add to the body of knowledge related to long acting reversible contraception. An outstanding and queer finding from the study is the non-utilization of LARCs by women who are aware and have knowledge about them, this may be an opportunity for further research to investigate the attribution to this.

Keywords: contraception, long acting, utilization, women (15-49)

Procedia PDF Downloads 197
7852 The Behaviour of Laterally Loaded Piles Installed in the Sand with Enlarged Bases

Authors: J. Omer, H. Haroglu

Abstract:

Base enlargement in piles was invented to enhance pile resistance in downward loading, but the contribution of an enlarged base to the lateral load resistance of a pile has not been fully exploited or understood. This paper presents a laboratory investigation of the lateral capacity and deformation response of small-scale steel piles with enlarged bases installed in dry sand. Static loading tests were performed on 24 model piles having different base-to-shaft diameter ratios. The piles were installed in a box filled with dry sand, and lateral loads were applied to the pile tops using a pulley system. The test piles had shaft diameters of 20 mm, 16 mm, and 10 mm; base diameters of 900 mm, 700 mm, and 500 mm. As a control, a pile without base enlargement was tested to allow comparisons with the enlarged base piles. Incremental maintained loads were applied until pile failure approached while recording pile head deflections with high-precision dial gauges. The results showed that the lateral capacity increased with an increase in base diameter, albeit by different percentages depending on the shaft diameters and embedment length in the sand. There was always an increase in lateral capacity with increasing embedment length. Also, it was observed that an enlarged pile base had deflected less at a given load when compared to the control pile. Therefore, the research demonstrated the benefits of lateral capacity and stability of enlarging a pile base.

Keywords: pile foundations, enlarged base, lateral loading

Procedia PDF Downloads 147
7851 Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain Method for Corn and Soybean Price Forecasting in North Carolina Markets

Authors: Selin Guney, Andres Riquelme

Abstract:

Among the main purposes of optimal and efficient forecasts of agricultural commodity prices is to guide the firms to advance the economic decision making process such as planning business operations and marketing decisions. Governments are also the beneficiaries and suppliers of agricultural price forecasts. They use this information to establish a proper agricultural policy, and hence, the forecasts affect social welfare and systematic errors in forecasts could lead to a misallocation of scarce resources. Various empirical approaches have been applied to forecast commodity prices that have used different methodologies. Most commonly-used approaches to forecast commodity sectors depend on classical time series models that assume values of the response variables are precise which is quite often not true in reality. Recently, this literature has mostly evolved to a consideration of fuzzy time series models that provide more flexibility in terms of the classical time series models assumptions such as stationarity, and large sample size requirement. Besides, fuzzy modeling approach allows decision making with estimated values under incomplete information or uncertainty. A number of fuzzy time series models have been developed and implemented over the last decades; however, most of them are not appropriate for forecasting repeated and nonconsecutive transitions in the data. The modeling scheme used in this paper eliminates this problem by introducing Markov modeling approach that takes into account both the repeated and nonconsecutive transitions. Also, the determination of length of interval is crucial in terms of the accuracy of forecasts. The problem of determining the length of interval arbitrarily is overcome and a methodology to determine the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series to improve forecast accuracy is proposed. The specific purpose of this paper is to propose and investigate the potential of a new forecasting model that integrates methodologies for determining the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series and Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain model. Moreover, the accuracy of the forecasting performance of proposed integrated model is compared to different univariate time series models and the superiority of proposed method over competing methods in respect of modelling and forecasting on the basis of forecast evaluation criteria is demonstrated. The application is to daily corn and soybean prices observed at three commercially important North Carolina markets; Candor, Cofield and Roaring River for corn and Fayetteville, Cofield and Greenville City for soybeans respectively. One main conclusion from this paper is that using fuzzy logic improves the forecast performance and accuracy; the effectiveness and potential benefits of the proposed model is confirmed with small selection criteria value such MAPE. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of integrating fuzzy logic and nonarbitrary determination of length of interval for the reliability and accuracy of price forecasts. The empirical results represent a significant contribution to our understanding of the applicability of fuzzy modeling in commodity price forecasts.

Keywords: commodity, forecast, fuzzy, Markov

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7850 Civil Engineering Tool Kit for Making Perfect Ellipses of Desired Dimensions on Very Large Surfaces

Authors: Karam Chand Gupta

Abstract:

If an ellipse is to be drawn of given dimensions on a large ground, there is no formula, method or set of calculations & procedure available which will help in drawing an ellipse of given length and width on ground. Whenever a field engineer is to start the work of an ellipse-shaped structure like elliptical conference hall, screening chamber and pump chamber in disposal work etc., it is cumbersome for him to give demarcation of the structure on the big surface of the ground. No procedure is available, even in Google. A set of formulas with calculations has been made which helps the field engineer to draw an true and perfect ellipse of given length and width on the large ground very easily so as to start the construction work of elliptical structure. Based on these formulas a civil Engineering tool kit has been made with the help of which we can make perfect ellipse of desired dimensions on very large surface. The Patent of the tool kit has been filed in Intellectual Property India with Patent Filing Number: 201611026153 and Patent Application Filing Date: 30.07.2016. An App named ‘KC’s Mesh Formula’ has also been made to ease the calculation work. This can be downloaded from Play Store. After adopting these formulas and tool kit, a field engineer will not face difficulty in drawing ellipse on the ground to start the work.

Keywords: ellipse, elliptical structure, foci, string, wooden peg

Procedia PDF Downloads 264