Search results for: General Linear Model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 22307

Search results for: General Linear Model

12557 Fertility Transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Role Family Planning Programs

Authors: Vincent Otieno, Alfred Agwanda, Anne Khasakhala

Abstract:

Among the neo-Malthusian adherents, it is believed that rapid population growth strain countries’ capacity and performance. Fertility have however decelerated in most of the countries in the recent past. Scholars have concentrated on wide range of factors associated with fertility majorly at the national scale with some opining that analysis of trends and differentials in the various fertility parameters have been discussed extensively. However, others believe that considerably less attention has been paid to the fertility preference- a pathway through which various variables act on fertility. The Sub-Saharan African countries’ disparities amid almost similarities in policies is a cause of concern to demographers. One would point at the meager synergies that have been focused on the fertility preference as well, especially at the macro scale. Using Bongaarts reformulation of Easterlin and Crimmins (1985) conceptual scheme, the understanding of the current transition based on the fertility preference in general would help to provide explanations to the observed latest dynamics. This study therefore is an attempt to explain the current fertility transition through women’s fertility preference. Results reveal that indeed fertility transition is on course in most of the sub-Saharan countries with huge disparities in fertility preferences and its implementation indices.

Keywords: fertility preference, the degree of implementation index, sub-Saharan Africa, transition

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12556 Influence of Intra-Yarn Permeability on Mesoscale Permeability of Plain Weave and 3D Fabrics

Authors: Debabrata Adhikari, Mikhail Matveev, Louise Brown, Andy Long, Jan Kočí

Abstract:

A good understanding of mesoscale permeability of complex architectures in fibrous porous preforms is of particular interest in order to achieve efficient and cost-effective resin impregnation of liquid composite molding (LCM). Fabrics used in structural reinforcements are typically woven or stitched. However, 3D fabric reinforcement is of particular interest because of the versatility in the weaving pattern with the binder yarn and in-plain yarn arrangements to manufacture thick composite parts, overcome the limitation in delamination, improve toughness etc. To predict the permeability based on the available pore spaces between the inter yarn spaces, unit cell-based computational fluid dynamics models have been using the Stokes Darcy model. Typically, the preform consists of an arrangement of yarns with spacing in the order of mm, wherein each yarn consists of thousands of filaments with spacing in the order of μm. The fluid flow during infusion exchanges the mass between the intra and inter yarn channels, meaning there is no dead-end of flow between the mesopore in the inter yarn space and the micropore in the yarn. Several studies have employed the Brinkman equation to take into account the flow through dual-scale porosity reinforcement to estimate their permeability. Furthermore, to reduce the computational effort of dual scale flow, scale separation criteria based on the ratio between yarn permeability to the yarn spacing was also proposed to quantify the dual scale and negligible micro-scale flow regime for the prediction of mesoscale permeability. In the present work, the key parameter to identify the influence of intra yarn permeability on the mesoscale permeability has been investigated with the systematic study of weft and warp yarn spacing on the plane weave as well as the position of binder yarn and number of in-plane yarn layers on 3D weave fabric. The permeability tensor has been estimated using an OpenFOAM-based model for the various weave pattern with idealized geometry of yarn implemented using open-source software TexGen. Additionally, scale separation criterion has been established based on the various configuration of yarn permeability for the 3D fabric with both the isotropic and anisotropic yarn from Gebart’s model. It was observed that the variation of mesoscale permeability Kxx within 30% when the isotropic porous yarn is considered for a 3D fabric with binder yarn. Furthermore, the permeability model developed in this study will be used for multi-objective optimizations of the preform mesoscale geometry in terms of yarn spacing, binder pattern, and a number of layers with an aim to obtain improved permeability and reduced void content during the LCM process.

Keywords: permeability, 3D fabric, dual-scale flow, liquid composite molding

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12555 A Simulation-Optimization Approach to Control Production, Subcontracting and Maintenance Decisions for a Deteriorating Production System

Authors: Héctor Rivera-Gómez, Eva Selene Hernández-Gress, Oscar Montaño-Arango, Jose Ramon Corona-Armenta

Abstract:

This research studies the joint production, maintenance and subcontracting control policy for an unreliable deteriorating manufacturing system. Production activities are controlled by a derivation of the Hedging Point Policy, and given that the system is subject to deterioration, it reduces progressively its capacity to satisfy product demand. Multiple deterioration effects are considered, reflected mainly in the quality of the parts produced and the reliability of the machine. Subcontracting is available as support to satisfy product demand; also overhaul maintenance can be conducted to reduce the effects of deterioration. The main objective of the research is to determine simultaneously the production, maintenance and subcontracting rate which minimize the total incurred cost. A stochastic dynamic programming model is developed and solved through a simulation-based approach composed of statistical analysis and optimization with the response surface methodology. The obtained results highlight the strong interactions between production, deterioration and quality which justify the development of an integrated model. A numerical example and a sensitivity analysis are presented to validate our results.

Keywords: subcontracting, optimal control, deterioration, simulation, production planning

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12554 Floodplain Modeling of River Jhelum Using HEC-RAS: A Case Study

Authors: Kashif Hassan, M.A. Ahanger

Abstract:

Floods have become more frequent and severe due to effects of global climate change and human alterations of the natural environment. Flood prediction/ forecasting and control is one of the greatest challenges facing the world today. The forecast of floods is achieved by the use of hydraulic models such as HEC-RAS, which are designed to simulate flow processes of the surface water. Extreme flood events in river Jhelum , lasting from a day to few are a major disaster in the State of Jammu and Kashmir, India. In the present study HEC-RAS model was applied to two different reaches of river Jhelum in order to estimate the flood levels corresponding to 25, 50 and 100 year return period flood events at important locations and to deduce flood vulnerability of important areas and structures. The flow rates for the two reaches were derived from flood-frequency analysis of 50 years of historic peak flow data. Manning's roughness coefficient n was selected using detailed analysis. Rating Curves were also generated to serve as base for determining the boundary conditions. Calibration and Validation procedures were applied in order to ensure the reliability of the model. Sensitivity analysis was also performed in order to ensure the accuracy of Manning's n in generating water surface profiles.

Keywords: flood plain, HEC-RAS, Jhelum, return period

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12553 Analytical Authentication of Butter Using Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy Coupled with Chemometrics

Authors: M. Bodner, M. Scampicchio

Abstract:

Fourier Transform Infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy coupled with chemometrics was used to distinguish between butter samples and non-butter samples. Further, quantification of the content of margarine in adulterated butter samples was investigated. Fingerprinting region (1400-800 cm–1) was used to develop unsupervised pattern recognition (Principal Component Analysis, PCA), supervised modeling (Soft Independent Modelling by Class Analogy, SIMCA), classification (Partial Least Squares Discriminant Analysis, PLS-DA) and regression (Partial Least Squares Regression, PLS-R) models. PCA of the fingerprinting region shows a clustering of the two sample types. All samples were classified in their rightful class by SIMCA approach; however, nine adulterated samples (between 1% and 30% w/w of margarine) were classified as belonging both at the butter class and at the non-butter one. In the two-class PLS-DA model’s (R2 = 0.73, RMSEP, Root Mean Square Error of Prediction = 0.26% w/w) sensitivity was 71.4% and Positive Predictive Value (PPV) 100%. Its threshold was calculated at 7% w/w of margarine in adulterated butter samples. Finally, PLS-R model (R2 = 0.84, RMSEP = 16.54%) was developed. PLS-DA was a suitable classification tool and PLS-R a proper quantification approach. Results demonstrate that FT-IR spectroscopy combined with PLS-R can be used as a rapid, simple and safe method to identify pure butter samples from adulterated ones and to determine the grade of adulteration of margarine in butter samples.

Keywords: adulterated butter, margarine, PCA, PLS-DA, PLS-R, SIMCA

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12552 In-Situ Redevelopment in Urban India: Two Case Studies from Delhi and Mumbai

Authors: Ashok Kumar, Anjali Sharma

Abstract:

As cities grow and expand spatially, redevelopment in urban India is beginning to emerge as a new mode of urban expansion sweeping low-income informal settlements. This paper examines the extent and nature of expanding urban frontier before examining implications for the families living in these settlements. Displacement of these families may appear to be an obvious consequence. However, we have conducted ethnographic studies over the past several months in a Delhi slum named Kathputli Colony, Delhi. In depth analysis of the study for this slum appears to present a variegated set of consequences for the residents of informal settlements including loss of livelihoods, dismantling of family ties, and general anxiety arising out of uncertainty about resettlement. Apart from Delhi case study, we also compare and contrast another redevelopment case from Mumbai located at Bhendi Bazar. These examples from the two mega cities of Mumbai and Delhi are analysed to understand and explore expanding urban frontiers and their consequences for informing future public policy.

Keywords: informal settlements, policy, redevelopment, urban

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12551 Numerical Modeling to Validate Theoretical Models of Toppling Failure in Rock Slopes

Authors: Hooman Dabirmanesh, Attila M. Zsaki

Abstract:

Traditionally, rock slope stability is carried out using limit equilibrium analysis when investigating toppling failure. In these equilibrium methods, internal forces exerted between columns are not clearly defined, and to the authors’ best knowledge, there is no consensus in literature with respect to the results of analysis. A discrete element method-based numerical model was developed and applied to simulate the behavior of rock layers subjected to toppling failure. Based on this calibrated numerical model, a study of the location and distribution of internal forces that result in equilibrium was carried out. The sum of side forces was applied at a point on a block which properly represents the force to determine the inter-column force distribution. In terms of the side force distribution coefficient, the result was compared to those obtained from laboratory centrifuge tests. The results of the simulation show the suitable criteria to select the correct position for the internal exerted force between rock layers. In addition, the numerical method demonstrates how a theoretical method could be reliable by considering the interaction between the rock layers.

Keywords: contact bond, discrete element, force distribution, limit equilibrium, tensile stress

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12550 Numerical Investigation on Transient Heat Conduction through Brine-Spongy Ice

Authors: S. R. Dehghani, Y. S. Muzychka, G. F. Naterer

Abstract:

The ice accretion of salt water on cold substrates creates brine-spongy ice. This type of ice is a mixture of pure ice and liquid brine. A real case of creation of this type of ice is superstructure icing which occurs on marine vessels and offshore structures in cold and harsh conditions. Transient heat transfer through this medium causes phase changes between brine pockets and pure ice. Salt rejection during the process of transient heat conduction increases the salinity of brine pockets to reach a local equilibrium state. In this process the only effect of passing heat through the medium is not changing the sensible heat of the ice and brine pockets; latent heat plays an important role and affects the mechanism of heat transfer. In this study, a new analytical model for evaluating heat transfer through brine-spongy ice is suggested. This model considers heat transfer and partial solidification and melting together. Properties of brine-spongy ice are obtained using properties of liquid brine and pure ice. A numerical solution using Method of Lines discretizes the medium to reach a set of ordinary differential equations. Boundary conditions are chosen using one of the applicable cases of this type of ice; one side is considered as a thermally isolated surface, and the other side is assumed to be suddenly affected by a constant temperature boundary. All cases are evaluated in temperatures between -20 C and the freezing point of brine-spongy ice. Solutions are conducted using different salinities from 5 to 60 ppt. Time steps and space intervals are chosen properly to maintain the most stable and fast solution. Variation of temperature, volume fraction of brine and brine salinity versus time are the most important outputs of this study. Results show that transient heat conduction through brine-spongy ice can create a various range of salinity of brine pockets from the initial salinity to that of 180 ppt. The rate of variation of temperature is found to be slower for high salinity cases. The maximum rate of heat transfer occurs at the start of the simulation. This rate decreases as time passes. Brine pockets are smaller at portions closer to the colder side than that of the warmer side. A the start of the solution, the numerical solution tends to increase instabilities. This is because of sharp variation of temperature at the start of the process. Changing the intervals improves the unstable situation. The analytical model using a numerical scheme is capable of predicting thermal behavior of brine spongy ice. This model and numerical solutions are important for modeling the process of freezing of salt water and ice accretion on cold structures.

Keywords: method of lines, brine-spongy ice, heat conduction, salt water

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12549 Pre-Analytical Laboratory Performance Evaluation Utilizing Quality Indicators between Private and Government-Owned Hospitals Affiliated to University of Santo Tomas

Authors: A. J. Francisco, K. C. Gallosa, R. J. Gasacao, J. R. Ros, B. J. Viado

Abstract:

The study focuses on the use of quality indicators (QI)s based on the standards made by the (IFCC), that could effectively identify and minimize errors occurring throughout the total testing process (TTP), in order to improve patient safety. The study was conducted through a survey questionnaire that was given to a random sample of 19 respondents (eight privately-owned and eleven government-owned hospitals), mainly CMTs, MTs, and Supervisors from UST-affiliated hospitals. The pre-analytical laboratory errors, which include misidentification errors, transcription errors, sample collection errors and sample handling and transportation errors, were considered as variables according to the IFCC WG-LEPS. Data gathered were analyzed using the Mann-Whitney U test, Percentile, Linear Regression, Percentage, and Frequency. The laboratory performance of both hospitals is High level. There is no significant difference between the laboratory performance between the two stated variables. Moreover, among the four QIs, sample handling and transportation errors contributed most to the difference between the two variables. Outcomes indicate satisfactory performance between both variables. However, in order to ensure high-quality and efficient laboratory operation, constant vigilance and improvements in pre-analytical QI are still needed. Expanding the coverage of the study, the inclusion of other phases, utilization of parametric tests are recommended.

Keywords: pre-analytical phase, quality indicators, laboratory performance, pre-analytical error

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12548 Creation and Annihilation of Spacetime Elements

Authors: Dnyanesh P. Mathur, Gregory L. Slater

Abstract:

Gravitation and the expansion of the universe at a large scale are generally regarded as two completely distinct phenomena. Yet, in general, relativity theory, they both manifest as 'curvature' of spacetime. We propose a hypothesis which treats these two 'curvature-producing' phenomena as aspects of an underlying process. This process treats spacetime itself as composed of discrete units (Plancktons) and is 'dynamic' in the sense that these elements of spacetime are continually being both created and annihilated. It is these two complementary processes of Planckton creation and Planckton annihilation which manifest themselves as - 'cosmic expansion' on the one hand and as 'gravitational attraction’ on the other. The Planckton hypothesis treats spacetime as a perfect fluid in the same manner as the co-moving frame of reference of Friedman equations and the Gullstrand-Painleve metric; i.e.Planckton hypothesis replaces 'curvature' of spacetime by the 'flow' of Plancktons (spacetime). Here we discuss how this perspective may allow a unified description of both cosmological and gravitational acceleration as well as providing a mechanism for inducing an irreducible action at every point associated with the creation and annihilation of Plancktons, which could be identified as the zero point energy.

Keywords: discrete spacetime, spacetime flow, zero point energy, planktons

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12547 Determining the Appropriate Methodology for the Security Evaluation of Equipment Related to Information and Communication Technology in the Industry

Authors: Sofia Ahanj Sofia Ahanj, Mahsa Rahmani Mahsa Rahmani, Zahra Sadeghigol, Vida Nobakht Vida Nobakht

Abstract:

Providing security in the electricity industry, as one of the vital infrastructures of the country, is one of the essential operations that must be taken in order to improve the security of the country. Resistant security strategies need to be regularly implemented as a dynamic process to improve security, and security evaluation is one of the most important steps in this process. Methodology in the field of evaluation in both technical and managerial dimensions is discussed in the laboratory. There are various standards in the field of general ICT technical-security evaluation. The most important are ISO / IEC 15408, ISO / IEC 27001 and NIST SP 800-53. In the present paper, these standards are first examined. Then, the standards and reports in the industrial field have been reviewed and compared, and finally, based on the results and special considerations of information and communication technology equipment in the electricity industry, the appropriate methodology has been presented.

Keywords: security standards, ISO/IEC 15408, ISA/IEC 62443 series, NIST SP 800-53, NISTIR 7628

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12546 Aflatoxins Characterization in Remedial Plant-Delphinium denudatum by High-Performance Liquid Chromatography–Tandem Mass Spectrometry

Authors: Nadeem A. Siddique, Mohd Mujeeb, Kahkashan

Abstract:

Introduction: The objective of the projected work is to study the occurrence of the aflatoxins B1, B2, G1and G2 in remedial plants, exclusively in Delphinium denudatum. The aflatoxins were analysed by high-performance liquid chromatography–tandem quadrupole mass spectrometry with electrospray ionization (HPLC–MS/MS) and immunoaffinity column chromatography were used for extraction and purification of aflatoxins. PDA media was selected for fungal count. Results: A good quality linear relationship was originated for AFB1, AFB2, AFG1 and AFG2 at 1–10 ppb (r > 0.9995). The analyte precision at three different spiking levels was 88.7–109.1 %, by means of low per cent relative standard deviations in each case. Within 5 to7 min aflatoxins can be separated using an Agilent XDB C18-column. We found that AFB1 and AFB2 were not found in D. denudatum. This was reliable through exceptionally low figures of fungal colonies observed after 6 hr of incubation. The developed analytical method is straightforward, be successfully used to determine the aflatoxins. Conclusion: The developed analytical method is straightforward, simple, accurate, economical and can be successfully used to find out the aflatoxins in remedial plants and consequently to have power over the quality of products. The presence of aflatoxin in the plant extracts was interrelated to the least fungal load in the remedial plants examined.

Keywords: aflatoxins, delphinium denudatum, liquid chromatography, mass spectrometry

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12545 Development of a Scale for Evaluating the Efficacy of Vacationing

Authors: Ju Yeon Lee, Seol Ah Oh, Hong il Kim, Hae Yong Do, Sung Won Choi

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to develop a Well-being and Moments Scale (WAMS) for evaluating the efficacy of ‘vacationing’ as a form of mental health recuperation. ‘Vacationing’ is defined as a going outside one’s usual environment to seek refreshment and relief from one’s daily life. To develop WAMS, we followed recommended procedures for scale development, including reviewing related studies, conducting focus group interviews to elucidate the need for this assessment area, and modifying items based on expert opinion. Through this process, we developed the WAMS. The psychometric properties of the WAMS were then tested in two separate samples. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) was conducted using 1.41 participants (mean age = 30.45 years; range: 20-50 years) to identify the underlying 3-factor structure of 'Positive Emotions', 'Life Satisfaction' and 'Self-Confidence.' The 26 items retained based on the EFA procedures were associated with excellent reliability (i.e., α = 0.93). Confirmatory factor analysis was then conducted using 200 different participants (mean age = 29.51 years; range: 20-50 years) and revealed good model fit for our hypothesized 3-factor model. Convergent validity tests also revealed correlations with other scales in the expected direction and range. Study limitations as well as the importance and utility of WMAS are also discussed.

Keywords: vacationing, positive affect, life satisfaction, self-confidence, WAMS

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12544 Climate Change and Rural-Urban Migration in Brazilian Semiarid Region

Authors: Linda Márcia Mendes Delazeri, Dênis Antônio Da Cunha

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Over the past few years, the evidence that human activities have altered the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have become stronger, indicating that this accumulation is the most likely cause of climate change observed so far. The risks associated with climate change, although uncertain, have the potential to increase social vulnerability, exacerbating existing socioeconomic challenges. Developing countries are potentially the most affected by climate change, since they have less potential to adapt and are those most dependent on agricultural activities, one of the sectors in which the major negative impacts are expected. In Brazil, specifically, it is expected that the localities which form the semiarid region are among the most affected, due to existing irregularity in rainfall and high temperatures, in addition to economic and social factors endemic to the region. Given the strategic limitations to handle the environmental shocks caused by climate change, an alternative adopted in response to these shocks is migration. Understanding the specific features of migration flows, such as duration, destination and composition is essential to understand the impacts of migration on origin and destination locations and to develop appropriate policies. Thus, this study aims to examine whether climatic factors have contributed to rural-urban migration in semiarid municipalities in the recent past and how these migration flows will be affected by future scenarios of climate change. The study was based on microeconomic theory of utility maximization, in which, to decide to leave the countryside and move on to the urban area, the individual seeks to maximize its utility. Analytically, we estimated an econometric model using the modeling of Fixed Effects and the results confirmed the expectation that climate drivers are crucial for the occurrence of the rural-urban migration. Also, other drivers of the migration process, as economic, social and demographic factors were also important. Additionally, predictions about the rural-urban migration motivated by variations in temperature and precipitation in the climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5 were made for the periods 2016-2035 and 2046-2065, defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results indicate that there will be increased rural-urban migration in the semiarid region in both scenarios and in both periods. In general, the results of this study reinforce the need for formulations of public policies to avoid migration for climatic reasons, such as policies that give support to the productive activities generating income in rural areas. By providing greater incentives for family agriculture and expanding sources of credit for the farmer, it will have a better position to face climate adversities and to settle in rural areas. Ultimately, if migration becomes necessary, there must be the adoption of policies that seek an organized and planned development of urban areas, considering migration as an adaptation strategy to adverse climate effects. Thus, policies that act to absorb migrants in urban areas and ensure that they have access to basic services offered to the urban population would contribute to the social costs reduction of climate variability.

Keywords: climate change, migration, rural productivity, semiarid region

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12543 Music Piracy Revisited: Agent-Based Modelling and Simulation of Illegal Consumption Behavior

Authors: U. S. Putro, L. Mayangsari, M. Siallagan, N. P. Tjahyani

Abstract:

National Collective Management Institute (LKMN) in Indonesia stated that legal music products were about 77.552.008 unit while illegal music products were about 22.0688.225 unit in 1996 and this number keeps getting worse every year. Consequently, Indonesia named as one of the countries with high piracy levels in 2005. This study models people decision toward unlawful behavior, music content piracy in particular, using agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS). The classification of actors in the model constructed in this study are legal consumer, illegal consumer, and neutral consumer. The decision toward piracy among the actors is a manifestation of the social norm which attributes are social pressure, peer pressure, social approval, and perceived prevalence of piracy. The influencing attributes fluctuate depending on the majority of surrounding behavior called social network. There are two main interventions undertaken in the model, campaign and peer influence, which leads to scenarios in the simulation: positively-framed descriptive norm message, negatively-framed descriptive norm message, positively-framed injunctive norm with benefits message, and negatively-framed injunctive norm with costs message. Using NetLogo, the model is simulated in 30 runs with 10.000 iteration for each run. The initial number of agent was set 100 proportion of 95:5 for illegal consumption. The assumption of proportion is based on the data stated that 95% sales of music industry are pirated. The finding of this study is that negatively-framed descriptive norm message has a worse reversed effect toward music piracy. The study discovers that selecting the context-based campaign is the key process to reduce the level of intention toward music piracy as unlawful behavior by increasing the compliance awareness. The context of Indonesia reveals that that majority of people has actively engaged in music piracy as unlawful behavior, so that people think that this illegal act is common behavior. Therefore, providing the information about how widespread and big this problem is could make people do the illegal consumption behavior instead. The positively-framed descriptive norm message scenario works best to reduce music piracy numbers as it focuses on supporting positive behavior and subject to the right perception on this phenomenon. Music piracy is not merely economical, but rather social phenomenon due to the underlying motivation of the actors which has shifted toward community sharing. The indication of misconception of value co-creation in the context of music piracy in Indonesia is also discussed. This study contributes theoretically that understanding how social norm configures the behavior of decision-making process is essential to breakdown the phenomenon of unlawful behavior in music industry. In practice, this study proposes that reward-based and context-based strategy is the most relevant strategy for stakeholders in music industry. Furthermore, this study provides an opportunity that findings may generalize well beyond music piracy context. As an emerging body of work that systematically constructs the backstage of law and social affect decision-making process, it is interesting to see how the model is implemented in other decision-behavior related situation.

Keywords: music piracy, social norm, behavioral decision-making, agent-based model, value co-creation

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12542 Analyzing Behaviour of the Utilization of the Online News Clipping Database: Experience in Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University

Authors: Siriporn Poolsuwan, Kanyarat Bussaban

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This research aims to investigate and analyze user’s behaviour towards the utilization of the online news clipping database at Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University, Thailand. Data is gathered from 214 lecturers and 380 undergraduate students by using questionnaires. Findings show that most users knew the online news clipping service from their friends, library’s website and their teachers. The users learned how to use it by themselves and others learned by training of SSRU library. Most users used the online news clipping database one time per month at home and always used the service for general knowledge, up-to-date academic knowledge and assignment reference. Moreover, the results of using the online news clipping service problems include the users themselves, service management, service device- computer and tools – and the network, service provider, and publicity. This research would be benefit for librarians and teachers for planning and designing library services in their works and organization.

Keywords: online database, user behavior, news clipping, library services

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12541 Behind Egypt’s Financial Crisis: Dollarization

Authors: Layal Mansour

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This paper breaks down Egypt’s financial crisis by constructing a customized financial stress index by including the vulnerable economic indicator “dollarization” as a vulnerable indicator in the credit and exchange sector. The Financial Stress Index for Egypt (FSIE) includes informative vulnerable indicators of the main financial sectors: the banking sector, the equities market, and the foreign exchange market. It is calculated on a monthly basis from 2010 to December 2022, so to report the two recent world’s most devastating financial crises: Covid 19 crisis and Ukraine-Russia War, in addition to the local 2016 and 2022 financial crises. We proceed first by a graphical analysis then by empirical analysis in running under Vector Autoregression (VAR) Model, dynamic causality tests between foreign reserves, dollarization rate, and FSIE. The graphical analysis shows that unexpectedly, Egypt’s economy seems to be immune to internal economic/political instabilities, however it is highly exposed to the foreign and exchange market. Empirical analysis confirms the graphical observations and proves that dollarization, or more precisely debt in foreign currency seems to be the main trigger of Egypt’s current financial crisis.

Keywords: egypt, financial crisis, financial stress index, dollarization, VAR model, causality tests

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12540 Investigating the Process Kinetics and Nitrogen Gas Production in Anammox Hybrid Reactor with Special Emphasis on the Role of Filter Media

Authors: Swati Tomar, Sunil Kumar Gupta

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Anammox is a novel and promising technology that has changed the traditional concept of biological nitrogen removal. The process facilitates direct oxidation of ammonical nitrogen under anaerobic conditions with nitrite as an electron acceptor without the addition of external carbon sources. The present study investigated the feasibility of anammox hybrid reactor (AHR) combining the dual advantages of suspended and attached growth media for biodegradation of ammonical nitrogen in wastewater. The experimental unit consisted of 4 nos. of 5L capacity AHR inoculated with mixed seed culture containing anoxic and activated sludge (1:1). The process was established by feeding the reactors with synthetic wastewater containing NH4-H and NO2-N in the ratio 1:1 at HRT (hydraulic retention time) of 1 day. The reactors were gradually acclimated to higher ammonium concentration till it attained pseudo steady state removal at a total nitrogen concentration of 1200 mg/l. During this period, the performance of the AHR was monitored at twelve different HRTs varying from 0.25-3.0 d with increasing NLR from 0.4 to 4.8 kg N/m3d. AHR demonstrated significantly higher nitrogen removal (95.1%) at optimal HRT of 1 day. Filter media in AHR contributed an additional 27.2% ammonium removal in addition to 72% reduction in the sludge washout rate. This may be attributed to the functional mechanism of filter media which acts as a mechanical sieve and reduces the sludge washout rate many folds. This enhances the biomass retention capacity of the reactor by 25%, which is the key parameter for successful operation of high rate bioreactors. The effluent nitrate concentration, which is one of the bottlenecks of anammox process was also minimised significantly (42.3-52.3 mg/L). Process kinetics was evaluated using first order and Grau-second order models. The first-order substrate removal rate constant was found as 13.0 d-1. Model validation revealed that Grau second order model was more precise and predicted effluent nitrogen concentration with least error (1.84±10%). A new mathematical model based on mass balance was developed to predict N2 gas in AHR. The mass balance model derived from total nitrogen dictated significantly higher correlation (R2=0.986) and predicted N2 gas with least error of precision (0.12±8.49%). SEM study of biomass indicated the presence of the heterogeneous population of cocci and rod shaped bacteria of average diameter varying from 1.2-1.5 mm. Owing to enhanced NRE coupled with meagre production of effluent nitrate and its ability to retain high biomass, AHR proved to be the most competitive reactor configuration for dealing with nitrogen laden wastewater.

Keywords: anammox, filter media, kinetics, nitrogen removal

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12539 Italian Speech Vowels Landmark Detection through the Legacy Tool 'xkl' with Integration of Combined CNNs and RNNs

Authors: Kaleem Kashif, Tayyaba Anam, Yizhi Wu

Abstract:

This paper introduces a methodology for advancing Italian speech vowels landmark detection within the distinctive feature-based speech recognition domain. Leveraging the legacy tool 'xkl' by integrating combined convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and recurrent neural networks (RNNs), the study presents a comprehensive enhancement to the 'xkl' legacy software. This integration incorporates re-assigned spectrogram methodologies, enabling meticulous acoustic analysis. Simultaneously, our proposed model, integrating combined CNNs and RNNs, demonstrates unprecedented precision and robustness in landmark detection. The augmentation of re-assigned spectrogram fusion within the 'xkl' software signifies a meticulous advancement, particularly enhancing precision related to vowel formant estimation. This augmentation catalyzes unparalleled accuracy in landmark detection, resulting in a substantial performance leap compared to conventional methods. The proposed model emerges as a state-of-the-art solution in the distinctive feature-based speech recognition systems domain. In the realm of deep learning, a synergistic integration of combined CNNs and RNNs is introduced, endowed with specialized temporal embeddings, harnessing self-attention mechanisms, and positional embeddings. The proposed model allows it to excel in capturing intricate dependencies within Italian speech vowels, rendering it highly adaptable and sophisticated in the distinctive feature domain. Furthermore, our advanced temporal modeling approach employs Bayesian temporal encoding, refining the measurement of inter-landmark intervals. Comparative analysis against state-of-the-art models reveals a substantial improvement in accuracy, highlighting the robustness and efficacy of the proposed methodology. Upon rigorous testing on a database (LaMIT) speech recorded in a silent room by four Italian native speakers, the landmark detector demonstrates exceptional performance, achieving a 95% true detection rate and a 10% false detection rate. A majority of missed landmarks were observed in proximity to reduced vowels. These promising results underscore the robust identifiability of landmarks within the speech waveform, establishing the feasibility of employing a landmark detector as a front end in a speech recognition system. The synergistic integration of re-assigned spectrogram fusion, CNNs, RNNs, and Bayesian temporal encoding not only signifies a significant advancement in Italian speech vowels landmark detection but also positions the proposed model as a leader in the field. The model offers distinct advantages, including unparalleled accuracy, adaptability, and sophistication, marking a milestone in the intersection of deep learning and distinctive feature-based speech recognition. This work contributes to the broader scientific community by presenting a methodologically rigorous framework for enhancing landmark detection accuracy in Italian speech vowels. The integration of cutting-edge techniques establishes a foundation for future advancements in speech signal processing, emphasizing the potential of the proposed model in practical applications across various domains requiring robust speech recognition systems.

Keywords: landmark detection, acoustic analysis, convolutional neural network, recurrent neural network

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12538 The Mediating Role of Social Connectivity in the Effect of Positive Personality and Alexithymia on Life Satisfaction: Analysis Based on Structural Equation Model

Authors: Yulin Zhang, Kaixi Dong, Guozhen Zhao

Abstract:

Background: Different levels of life satisfaction are associated with some individual differences. Understanding the mechanism between them will help to enhance an individual’s well-being. On the one hand, traditional personality such as extraversion has been considered as the most stable and effective factor in predicting life satisfaction to the author’s best knowledge. On the other, individual emotional difference, such as alexithymia (difficulties identifying and describing one’s own feelings), is also closely related to life satisfaction. With the development of positive psychology, positive personalities such as virtues attract wide attention. And according to the broaden-and-build theory, social connectivity may mediate between emotion and life satisfaction. Therefore, the current study aims to explore the mediating role of social connectivity in the effect of positive personality and alexithymia on life satisfaction. Method: This study was conducted with 318 healthy Chinese college students whose age range from 18 to 30. Positive personality (including interpersonal, vitality, and cautiousness) was measured by the Chinese version of Values in Action Inventory of Strengths (VIA-IS). Alexithymia was measured by the Toronto Alexithymia Scale (TAS), and life satisfaction was measured by Satisfaction With Life Scale (SWLS). And social connectivity was measured by six items which have been used in previous studies. Each scale showed high reliability and validity. The mediating model was examined in Mplus 7.2 within a structural equation modeling (SEM) framework. Findings: The model fitted well and results revealed that both positive personality (95% confidence interval of indirect effect was [0.023, 0.097]) and alexithymia (95% confidence interval of indirect effect was [-0.270, -0.089]) predicted life satisfaction level significantly through social connectivity. Also, only positive personality significantly and directly predicted life satisfaction compared to alexithymia (95% confidence interval of direct effect was [0.109, 0.260]). Conclusion: Alexithymia predicts life satisfaction only through social connectivity, which emphasizes the importance of social bonding in enhancing the well-being of Chinese college students with alexithymia. And the positive personality can predict life satisfaction directly or through social connectivity, which provides implications for enhancing the well-being of Chinese college students by cultivating their virtue and positive psychological quality.

Keywords: alexithymia, life satisfaction, positive personality, social connectivity

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12537 Simulation on Influence of Environmental Conditions on Part Distortion in Fused Deposition Modelling

Authors: Anto Antony Samy, Atefeh Golbang, Edward Archer, Alistair McIlhagger

Abstract:

Fused deposition modelling (FDM) is one of the additive manufacturing techniques that has become highly attractive in the industrial and academic sectors. However, parts fabricated through FDM are highly susceptible to geometrical defects such as warpage, shrinkage, and delamination that can severely affect their function. Among the thermoplastic polymer feedstock for FDM, semi-crystalline polymers are highly prone to part distortion due to polymer crystallization. In this study, the influence of FDM processing conditions such as chamber temperature and print bed temperature on the induced thermal residual stress and resulting warpage are investigated using the 3D transient thermal model for a semi-crystalline polymer. The thermo-mechanical properties and the viscoelasticity of the polymer, as well as the crystallization physics, which considers the crystallinity of the polymer, are coupled with the evolving temperature gradient of the print model. From the results, it was observed that increasing the chamber temperature from 25°C to 75°C lead to a decrease of 1.5% residual stress, while decreasing bed temperature from 100°C to 60°C, resulted in a 33% increase in residual stress and a significant rise of 138% in warpage. The simulated warpage data is validated by comparing it with the measured warpage values of the samples using 3D scanning.

Keywords: finite element analysis, fused deposition modelling, residual stress, warpage

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12536 Provenance in Scholarly Publications: Introducing the provCite Ontology

Authors: Maria Joseph Israel, Ahmed Amer

Abstract:

Our work aims to broaden the application of provenance technology beyond its traditional domains of scientific workflow management and database systems by offering a general provenance framework to capture richer and extensible metadata in unstructured textual data sources such as literary texts, commentaries, translations, and digital humanities. Specifically, we demonstrate the feasibility of capturing and representing expressive provenance metadata, including more of the context for citing scholarly works (e.g., the authors’ explicit or inferred intentions at the time of developing his/her research content for publication), while also supporting subsequent augmentation with similar additional metadata (by third parties, be they human or automated). To better capture the nature and types of possible citations, in our proposed provenance scheme metaScribe, we extend standard provenance conceptual models to form our proposed provCite ontology. This provides a conceptual framework which can accurately capture and describe more of the functional and rhetorical properties of a citation than can be achieved with any current models.

Keywords: knowledge representation, provenance architecture, ontology, metadata, bibliographic citation, semantic web annotation

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12535 Comparison of the Effectiveness of Tree Algorithms in Classification of Spongy Tissue Texture

Authors: Roza Dzierzak, Waldemar Wojcik, Piotr Kacejko

Abstract:

Analysis of the texture of medical images consists of determining the parameters and characteristics of the examined tissue. The main goal is to assign the analyzed area to one of two basic groups: as a healthy tissue or a tissue with pathological changes. The CT images of the thoracic lumbar spine from 15 healthy patients and 15 with confirmed osteoporosis were used for the analysis. As a result, 120 samples with dimensions of 50x50 pixels were obtained. The set of features has been obtained based on the histogram, gradient, run-length matrix, co-occurrence matrix, autoregressive model, and Haar wavelet. As a result of the image analysis, 290 descriptors of textural features were obtained. The dimension of the space of features was reduced by the use of three selection methods: Fisher coefficient (FC), mutual information (MI), minimization of the classification error probability and average correlation coefficients between the chosen features minimization of classification error probability (POE) and average correlation coefficients (ACC). Each of them returned ten features occupying the initial place in the ranking devised according to its own coefficient. As a result of the Fisher coefficient and mutual information selections, the same features arranged in a different order were obtained. In both rankings, the 50% percentile (Perc.50%) was found in the first place. The next selected features come from the co-occurrence matrix. The sets of features selected in the selection process were evaluated using six classification tree methods. These were: decision stump (DS), Hoeffding tree (HT), logistic model trees (LMT), random forest (RF), random tree (RT) and reduced error pruning tree (REPT). In order to assess the accuracy of classifiers, the following parameters were used: overall classification accuracy (ACC), true positive rate (TPR, classification sensitivity), true negative rate (TNR, classification specificity), positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV). Taking into account the classification results, it should be stated that the best results were obtained for the Hoeffding tree and logistic model trees classifiers, using the set of features selected by the POE + ACC method. In the case of the Hoeffding tree classifier, the highest values of three parameters were obtained: ACC = 90%, TPR = 93.3% and PPV = 93.3%. Additionally, the values of the other two parameters, i.e., TNR = 86.7% and NPV = 86.6% were close to the maximum values obtained for the LMT classifier. In the case of logistic model trees classifier, the same ACC value was obtained ACC=90% and the highest values for TNR=88.3% and NPV= 88.3%. The values of the other two parameters remained at a level close to the highest TPR = 91.7% and PPV = 91.6%. The results obtained in the experiment show that the use of classification trees is an effective method of classification of texture features. This allows identifying the conditions of the spongy tissue for healthy cases and those with the porosis.

Keywords: classification, feature selection, texture analysis, tree algorithms

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12534 Investigation of Maritime Accidents with Exploratory Data Analysis in the Strait of Çanakkale (Dardanelles)

Authors: Gizem Kodak

Abstract:

The Strait of Çanakkale, together with the Strait of Istanbul and the Sea of Marmara, form the Turkish Straits System. In other words, the Strait of Çanakkale is the southern gate of the system that connects the Black Sea countries with the other countries of the world. Due to the heavy maritime traffic, it is important to scientifically examine the accident characteristics in the region. In particular, the results indicated by the descriptive statistics are of critical importance in order to strengthen the safety of navigation. At this point, exploratory data analysis offers strategic outputs in terms of defining the problem and knowing the strengths and weaknesses against possible accident risk. The study aims to determine the accident characteristics in the Strait of Çanakkale with temporal and spatial analysis of historical data, using Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) as the research method. The study's results will reveal the general characteristics of maritime accidents in the region and form the infrastructure for future studies. Therefore, the text provides a clear description of the research goals and methodology, and the study's contributions are well-defined.

Keywords: maritime accidents, EDA, Strait of Çanakkale, navigational safety

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12533 Opportunity Integrated Assessment Facilitating Critical Thinking and Science Process Skills Measurement on Acid Base Matter

Authors: Anggi Ristiyana Puspita Sari, Suyanta

Abstract:

To recognize the importance of the development of critical thinking and science process skills, the instrument should give attention to the characteristics of chemistry. Therefore, constructing an accurate instrument for measuring those skills is important. However, the integrated instrument assessment is limited in number. The purpose of this study is to validate an integrated assessment instrument for measuring students’ critical thinking and science process skills on acid base matter. The development model of the test instrument adapted McIntire model. The sample consisted of 392 second grade high school students in the academic year of 2015/2016 in Yogyakarta. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) was conducted to explore construct validity, whereas content validity was substantiated by Aiken’s formula. The result shows that the KMO test is 0.714 which indicates sufficient items for each factor and the Bartlett test is significant (a significance value of less than 0.05). Furthermore, content validity coefficient which is based on 8 expert judgments is obtained at 0.85. The findings support the integrated assessment instrument to measure critical thinking and science process skills on acid base matter.

Keywords: acid base matter, critical thinking skills, integrated assessment instrument, science process skills, validity

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12532 Fulfillment of Models of Prenatal Care in Adolescents from Mexico and Chile

Authors: Alejandra Sierra, Gloria Valadez, Adriana Dávalos, Mirliana Ramírez

Abstract:

For years, the Pan American Health Organization/World Health Organization and other organizations have made efforts to the improve access and the quality of prenatal care as part of comprehensive programs for maternal and neonatal health, the standards of care have been renewed in order to migrate from a medical perspective to a holistic perspective. However, despite the efforts currently antenatal care models have not been verified by a scientific evaluation in order to determine their effectiveness. The teenage pregnancy is considered as a very important phenomenon since it has been strongly associated with inequalities, poverty and the lack of gender quality; therefore it is important to analyze the antenatal care that’s been given, including not only the clinical intervention but also the activities surrounding the advertising and the health education. In this study, the objective was to describe if the previously established activities (on the prenatal care models) are being performed in the care of pregnant teenagers attending prenatal care in health institutions in two cities in México and Chile during 2013. Methods: Observational and descriptive study, of a transversal cohort. 170 pregnant women (13-19 years) were included in prenatal care in two health institutions (100 women from León-Mexico and 70 from Chile-Coquimbo). Data collection: direct survey, perinatal clinical record card which was used as checklists: WHO antenatal care model WHO-2003, Official Mexican Standard NOM-007-SSA2-1993 and Personalized Service Manual on Reproductive Process- Chile Crece Contigo; for data analysis descriptive statistics were used. The project was approved by the relevant ethics committees. Results: Regarding the fulfillment of interventions focused on physical, gynecological exam, immunizations, monitoring signs and biochemical parameters in both groups was met by more than 84%; the activities of guidance and counseling pregnant teenagers in Leon compliance rates were below 50%, on the other hand, although pregnant women in Coquimbo had a higher percentage of compliance, no one reached 100%. The topics that less was oriented were: family planning, signs and symptoms of complications and labor. Conclusions: Although the coverage of the interventions indicated in the prenatal care models was high, there were still shortcomings in the fulfillment of activities to orientation, education and health promotion. Deficiencies in adherence to prenatal care guidelines could be due to different circumstances such as lack of registration or incomplete filling of medical records, lack of medical supplies or health personnel, absences of people at prenatal check-up appointments, among many others. Therefore, studies are required to evaluate the quality of prenatal care and the effectiveness of existing models, considering the role of the different actors (pregnant women, professionals and health institutions) involved in the functionality and quality of prenatal care models, in order to create strategies to design or improve the application of a complete process of promotion and prevention of maternal and child health as well as sexual and reproductive health in general.

Keywords: adolescent health, health systems, maternal health, primary health care

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12531 Design and Fabrication of a Parabolic trough Collector and Experimental Investigation of Direct Steam Production in Tehran

Authors: M. Bidi, H. Akhbari, S. Eslami, A. Bakhtiari

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Due to the high potential of solar energy utilization in Iran, development of related technologies is of great necessity. Linear parabolic collectors are among the most common and most efficient means to harness the solar energy. The main goal of this paper is design and construction of a parabolic trough collector to produce hot water and steam in Tehran. To provide precise and practical plans, 3D models of the collector under consideration were developed using Solidworks software. This collector was designed in a way that the tilt angle can be adjusted manually. To increase concentraion ratio, a small diameter absorber tube is selected and to enhance solar absorbtion, a shape of U-tube is used. One of the outstanding properties of this collector is its simple design and use of low cost metal and plastic materials in its manufacturing procedure. The collector under consideration was installed in Shahid Beheshti University of Tehran and the values of solar irradiation, ambient temperature, wind speed and collector steam production rate were measured in different days and hours of July. Results revealed that a 1×2 m parabolic trough collector located in Tehran is able to produce steam by the rate of 300ml/s under the condition of atmospheric pressure and without using a vacuum cover over the absorber tube.

Keywords: desalination, parabolic trough collector, direct steam production, solar water heater, design and construction

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12530 CFD Analysis of Multi-Phase Reacting Transport Phenomena in Discharge Process of Non-Aqueous Lithium-Air Battery

Authors: Jinliang Yuan, Jong-Sung Yu, Bengt Sundén

Abstract:

A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model is developed for rechargeable non-aqueous electrolyte lithium-air batteries with a partial opening for oxygen supply to the cathode. Multi-phase transport phenomena occurred in the battery are considered, including dissolved lithium ions and oxygen gas in the liquid electrolyte, solid-phase electron transfer in the porous functional materials and liquid-phase charge transport in the electrolyte. These transport processes are coupled with the electrochemical reactions at the active surfaces, and effects of discharge reaction-generated solid Li2O2 on the transport properties and the electrochemical reaction rate are evaluated and implemented in the model. The predicted results are discussed and analyzed in terms of the spatial and transient distribution of various parameters, such as local oxygen concentration, reaction rate, variable solid Li2O2 volume fraction and porosity, as well as the effective diffusion coefficients. It is found that the effect of the solid Li2O2 product deposited at the solid active surfaces is significant on the transport phenomena and the overall battery performance.

Keywords: Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), modeling, multi-phase, transport phenomena, lithium-air battery

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12529 US Track And Field System: Examining Micro-Level Practices against a Global Model for Integrated Development of Mass and Elite Sport

Authors: Peter Smolianov, Steven Dion, Christopher Schoen, Jaclyn Norberg, Nicholas Stone, Soufiane Rafi

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This study assessed the micro-level elements of track and field development in the US against a model for integrating high-performance sport with mass participation. This investigation is important for the country’s international sport performance, which declined relative to other countries and wellbeing, which in its turn deteriorated as over half of the US population became overweight. A questionnaire was designed for the following elements of the model: talent identification and development as well as advanced athlete support. Survey questions were validated by 12 experts, including academics, executives from sport governing bodies, coaches, and administrators. To determine the areas for improvement, the questionnaires were completed by 102 US track and field coaches representing the country’s regions and coaching levels. Possible advancements were further identified through semi-structured discussions with 10 US track and field administrators. The study found that talent search and development is a critically important area for improvement: 49 percent of respondents had overall negative perceptions, and only 16 percent were positive regarding these US track and field practices. Both quantitative survey results and open responses revealed that the key reason for the inadequate athlete development was a shortage of well-educated and properly paid coaches: 77 percent of respondents indicated that coach expertise is never or rarely high across all participant ages and levels. More than 40 percent of the respondents were uncertain of or not familiar with world’s best talent identification and development practices, particularly methods of introducing children to track and field from outside the sport’s participation base. Millions more could be attracted to the sport by adopting best international practices. First, physical education should be offered a minimum three times a week in all school grades, and track and field together with other healthy sports, should be taught at school to all children. Second, multi-sport events, including track and field disciplines, should be organized for everyone within and among all schools, cities and regions. Three, Australian and Eastern European methods of talent search at schools should be utilized and tailored to the US conditions. Four, comprehensive long term athlete development guidelines should be used for the advancement of the American Development Model, particularly track and field tests and guidelines as part of both school education and high-performance athlete development for every age group from six to over 70 years old. These world’s best practices are to improve the country’s international performance while increasing national sport participation and positively influencing public health.

Keywords: high performance, mass participation, sport development, track and field, USA

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12528 Exploring the Quest for Centralized Identity in Mohsin Hamid's "The Last White Man": Post-Apocalyptic Transformations and Societal Reconfigurations

Authors: Kashifa Khalid, Eesham Fatima

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This study aims to analyze the loss of identity and its impact on one’s life in ‘The Last White Man’ by Mohsin Hamid. The theory of Alienation Effect by Bertolt Brecht has been applied to the text as Hamid offers the readers a unique perspective, alluding to significant themes like identity, race, and death. The aspects of defamiliarization align impeccably with the plot, as existence and the corresponding concept of identity seem to have dissolved into utter chaos. This extends from the unexplained transformation to the way the entire world unravels from its general norm into a dystopian mayhem. The characters, starting with the protagonist Anders, have lost their center. One’s own self transforms into the ‘other,’ and the struggle is to get refamiliarized with one’s own self. Alienation and isolation only rise as the construct of race and identity is taken apart brick by brick, ironically at its own pace as many new realities are blown to bits. The inseparable relationship between identity and grief under the ever-looming cloud of ‘death’ is studied in detail. The theoretical framework and thematic aspects harmonize in accordance with the writing style put forth by Hamid, tying all the loose ends together.

Keywords: alienation, chaos, identity, transformation

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