Search results for: supervised decision tree

Authors: Shiwani Bhatnagar, K. K. Srivastava, Sangeeta Singh, Ameen Ullah Khan, Bundesh Kumar, Lokendra Singh Rathore

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From the instigation of the world medicinal plants are treated as part and parcel of human society to fight against diseases. Azadirachta indica (Neem) a herbal plant has been used as an Indian traditional medicine since ages and its products are acknowledged to solve agricultural, forestry and public health related problems, owing to its beneficial medicinal properties. Each part of the neem tree is known for its medicinal property. Bark & leaf extracts of neem have been used to control leprosy, respiratory disorders, constipation and also as blood purifier and a general health tonic. Neem is still regarded as ' rural community dispensary' in India or a tree for solving medical problems. Use of Neem as pesticides for the management of insect pest of agriculture crops and forestry has been seen as a shift in the use of synthetic pesticides to ecofriendly botanicals. Neem oil and seed extracts possess germicidal and anti-bacterial properties which when sprayed on the plant helps in protecting them from foliage pests. Azadirachtin, the main active ingredient found in neem tree, acts as an insect repellent and antifeedant. However the young plants are susceptible to many insect pest and foliar diseases. Recently, in the avenue plantation, planted by Arid Forest Research Institute, Jodhpur, around the premises of IIT Jodhpur, two years old neem plants were found to be severely infested with tip borer Laspeyresia koenigana (Family: Eucosmidae). The adult moth of L. koenigana lays eggs on the tender shoots and the young larvae tunnel into the shoot and feed inside. A small pinhole can be seen at the entrance point, from where the larva enters in to the stem. The severely attached apical shoots exhibit profuse gum exudation resulting in development of a callus structure. The internal feeding causes the stem to wilt and the leaves to dry up from the tips resulting in growth retardation. Alternaria Leaf spot and blight symptoms were also recorded on these neem plants. For the management of tip borer and Alternaria Leaf spot, foliar spray of monocrotophos @0.05% and Dithane M-45 @ 0.15% and powermin @ 2ml/lit were found efficient in managing the insect pest and foliar disease problem. No Further incidence of pest/diseases was noticed.

Keywords: azadirachta indica, alternaria leaf spot, laspeyresia koenigana, management

Procedia PDF Downloads 477

Authors: Natacha Fery, Guilherme L. Dalledonne, Xiangyang Zheng, Cheng Tang, Roberto Mayerle

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A Decision Support System (DSS) for supporting decision makers in the management of the Shandong Peninsula has been developed. Emphasis has been given to coastal protection, coastal cage aquaculture and harbors. The investigations were done in the framework of a joint research project funded by the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). In this paper, a description of the DSS, the development of its components, and results of its application are presented. The system integrates in-situ measurements, process-based models, and a database management system. Numerical models for the simulation of flow, waves, sediment transport and morphodynamics covering the entire Bohai Sea are set up based on the Delft3D modelling suite (Deltares). Calibration and validation of the models were realized based on the measurements of moored Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCP) and High Frequency (HF) radars. In order to enable cost-effective and scalable applications, a database management system was developed. It enhances information processing, data evaluation, and supports the generation of data products. Results of the application of the DSS to the management of coastal protection, coastal cage aquaculture and harbors are presented here. Model simulations covering the most severe storms observed during the last decades were carried out leading to an improved understanding of hydrodynamics and morphodynamics. Results helped in the identification of coastal stretches subjected to higher levels of energy and improved support for coastal protection measures.

Keywords: coastal protection, decision support system, in-situ measurements, numerical modelling

Procedia PDF Downloads 195

Authors: S. Ahmad, M. Rizwan, B. Ayub, S. Mehmood, P. Akhtar

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This experiment was conducted to investigate the effect of supplementation of pure herbal blend on growth performance of boilers. One hundred and twenty birds were randomly distributed into 4 experimental units of 3 replicates (10 birds/replicate) as: negative control (basal diet), positive control (Lincomycin at the rate of 5g/bag), pure herbal blend at the rate of 150g/bag and pure herbal blend at the rate of 300g/bag. The data regarding weekly feed intake, body weight gain and feed conversion ratio were recorded, and fecal samples were collected at the end of starter and finisher phase for nutrient digestibility trial. The results of feed intake showed significant (P < 0.05) results in 1st (305g), 2nd (696.88g), 3rd (1046.9g) and 4th (1173.2g) week and feed conversion ratio indicated significant (P < 0.05) variations in 1st (2.54) and 4th (2.28) week of age. Also, both starter and finisher phase indicated significant (P < 0.05) differences among all treatment groups in feed intake (2023.4g) and (2302.6g) respectively. The statistical analysis indicated significant (P < 0.05) results in crop filling percentage (86.6%) after 2 hours of first feed supplementation. In case of nutrient digestibility trial, results showed significant (P < 0.05) values of crude protein and crude fat in starter phase as 69.65% and 56.62% respectively, and 69.57% and 48.55% respectively, in finisher phase. Based on overall results, it was concluded that the dietary inclusion of pure herbal blend containing neem tree leaves powder, garlic powder, ginger powder and turmeric powder increase the production performance of broilers.

Keywords: neem tree leave, garlic, ginger, herbal blend, broiler

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Authors: Hsin-Yi Huang, Ming-Sheng Liu, Jiun-Yan Shiau

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Planning the order picking lists of warehouses to achieve when the costs associated with logistics on the operational performance is a significant challenge. In e-commerce era, this task is especially important productive processes are high. Nowadays, many order planning techniques employ supervised machine learning algorithms. However, the definition of which features should be processed by such algorithms is not a simple task, being crucial to the proposed technique’s success. Against this background, we consider whether unsupervised algorithms can enhance the planning of order-picking lists. A Zone2 picking approach, which is based on using clustering algorithms twice, is developed. A simplified example is given to demonstrate the merit of our approach.

Keywords: order picking, warehouse, clustering, unsupervised learning

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Authors: Boukelkoul Lahcen

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The cumulative costs for O&M may represent as much as 65%-90% of the turbine's investment cost. Nowadays the cost effectiveness concept becomes a decision-making and technology evaluation metric. The cost of energy metric accounts for the effect replacement cost and unscheduled maintenance cost parameters. One key of the proposed approach is the idea of maintaining the WTs which can be captured via use of a finite state Markov chain. Such a model can be embedded within a probabilistic operation and maintenance simulation reflecting the action to be done. In this paper, an approach of estimating the cost of O&M is presented. The finite state Markov model is used for decision problems with number of determined periods (life cycle) to predict the cost according to various options of maintenance.

Keywords: cost, finite state, Markov model, operation and maintenance

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Authors: Laima Zakaraite, Vaidas Morkevicius

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The COVID-19 pandemic brought important and pressing challenges for politicians around the world. Governments, parliaments, and political leaders had to make quick decisions about containment of the pandemic, usually without clear knowledge about the factual spread of the virus, the possible expected speed of spread, and levels of mortality. Opinions of experts were also divided, as some advocated for ‘herd immunity’ without closing down the economy and public life, and others supported the idea of strict lockdown. The debates about measures of pandemic containment were heated and involved strong moral tensions with regard to the possible outcomes. This paper proposes to study the manifestations of moral imagination in the political debates regarding the COVID-19 pandemic. Importantly, moral imagination is associated with twofold abilities of a decision-making actor: the ability to discern the moral aspects embedded within a situation and the ability to envision a range of possibilities alternative solutions to the situation from a moral perspective. The concept was most thoroughly investigated in business management studies. However, its relevance for the study of political decision-making is also rather clear. The results of the study show to what extent politicians are able to discern the wide range of moral issues related to a situation (in this case, consequences of COVID-19 pandemic in a country) and how broad (especially, from a moral perspective) are discussions of the possible solutions proposed for solving the problem (situation). Arguably, political discussions and considerations are broader and affected by a wider and more varied range of actors and ideas compared to decision making in the business management sector. However, the debates and ensuing solutions may also be restricted by ideological maxims and advocacy of special interests. Therefore, empirical study of policy proposals and their debates might reveal the actual breadth of moral imagination in political discussions. For this purpose, we carried out the qualitative study of the parliamentary debates related to the COVID-19 pandemic in Lithuania during the first wave (containment of which was considered very successful) and at the beginning and consequent acceleration of the second wave (when the spread of the virus became uncontrollable).

Keywords: decision making, moral imagination, political debates, political decision

Procedia PDF Downloads 147

Authors: M. Yaqoob, C. S. O’Neill, S. Faraj, C. L. O’Neill

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This paper presents the preliminary findings from a study exploring nurse’s contributions to end of life decisions and to the care of dying patients in ICU units in the Kingdom of Bahrain. The process of dying is complex as medical clinicians are frequently unable to say with certainty when death will occur. It is generally accepted that end of life care begins when it is possible to know that death is imminent. Nurses do not make medical treatment decisions when caring for a dying patient. There are, however, many other types of decisions made when a patient is approaching the end of life and nurses are either formally or informally part of these decision making processes. This study explored nurses care practices at the end of life, in two ICU units in large hospitals in the Kingdom of Bahrain. The research design was a grounded theory approach. Ten nurses participated, six of whom were Bahraini nationals and four were Indian. A core category death avoidance talk was supported by three major subcategories, degrees of involvement in decision making; signalling and creating an awareness of death; care shifting from dying patients to family. Despite nurses asserting that they carried out the orders of doctors and had no role in decision making processes at end of life this study showed that there were degrees of nurse involvement. Doctors frequently discussed the patient’s clinical condition with nurses and also sought information regarding the family. Information about the family was of particular relevance if the doctor was considering a DNR order, which the nurses equated with dying. Families were not always informed when a DNR decision was made. When families were not informed the nurses engaged in sophisticated rituals signalling and creating awareness to family members that the death of their loved one was near. This process also involved a subtle shifting of care from the dying patient to the family. This seminar paper will focus particularly on how nurses signal and create an awareness of death in an ICU setting. The findings suggest that despite the avoidance of death talk in the ICU nurses indirectly convey and create an awareness that death is near to family members.

Keywords: decision making, dying patients, end of life, intensive care unit

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Authors: Rachel Y. Zhang, Christopher K. Anderson

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A critical aspect of revenue management is a firm’s ability to predict demand as a function of price. Historically hotels have used simple time series models (regression and/or pick-up based models) owing to the complexities of trying to build casual models of demands. Machine learning approaches are slowly attracting attention owing to their flexibility in modeling relationships. This study provides an overview of approaches to forecasting hospitality demand – focusing on the opportunities created by machine learning approaches, including K-Nearest-Neighbors, Support vector machine, Regression Tree, and Artificial Neural Network algorithms. The out-of-sample performances of above approaches to forecasting hotel demand are illustrated by using a proprietary sample of the market level (24 properties) transactional data for Las Vegas NV. Causal predictive models can be built and evaluated owing to the availability of market level (versus firm level) data. This research also compares and contrast model accuracy of firm-level models (i.e. predictive models for hotel A only using hotel A’s data) to models using market level data (prices, review scores, location, chain scale, etc… for all hotels within the market). The prospected models will be valuable for hotel revenue prediction given the basic characters of a hotel property or can be applied in performance evaluation for an existed hotel. The findings will unveil the features that play key roles in a hotel’s revenue performance, which would have considerable potential usefulness in both revenue prediction and evaluation.

Keywords: hotel revenue, k-nearest-neighbors, machine learning, neural network, prediction model, regression tree, support vector machine

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: Emanuel Koseos

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Data-Driven Decision Making (DDDM) refers to making decisions that are based on historical data in order to inform practice, develop strategies and implement policies that benefit organizational settings. In educational technology, DDDM facilitates the implementation of differential educational learning approaches such as Educational Data Mining (EDM) and Competency-Based Education (CBE), which commonly target university classrooms. There is a current need for DDDM models applied to middle and secondary schools from a concern for assessing the needs, progress and performance of students and educators with respect to regional standards, policies and evolution of curriculums. To address these concerns, we propose a DDDM reference model developed using educational key process initiatives as inputs to a machine learning framework implemented with statistical software (SAS, R) to provide a best-practices, complex-free and automated approach for educators at their regional level. We assessed the efficiency of the model over a six-year period using data from 45 schools and grades K-12 in the Langley, BC, Canada regional school district. We concluded that the model has wider appeal, such as business learning systems.

Keywords: competency-based learning, data-driven decision making, machine learning, secondary schools

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Authors: P. S. Dhananjaya Swamy, B. Chinnappa, G. B. Ramesh, Naveen P. Kumar

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Kodagu district is one of the most densely forested districts in the India as around sixty five per cent of geographical areas under tree cover. Nearly 53 per cent of the flora of Kodagu is endemic. The district is also a hotspot of endemic orchids found mainly in the Thadiandamol. Shade grown, eco-friendly coffee farms are perhaps a selected few places on this planet where nature runs wild. The Kodagu accounts for more than 8.8 per cent of floral diversity of Karnataka state. Estimation of unit cost of cultivation plays a vital role in determining the governmental program their market intervention policies. On an average, planters incurred around Rs. 17041 per acre. The extent of production risk was highest among small category of planters (66 %) compared to other two exhibiting production instability. The result shows that, the coffee productivity in medium plantations was 1051.2 kg per acre as against 758.5 and 789.2 kg in the case of small and large plantations. An annual net return per acre was highest in the case of medium planters (Rs. 26109.3) as against Rs. 20566.7 and Rs. 18572.7 in the case of small and large planters. Cost of production was lowest in the case of small planters (Rs. 18.9 per kg of output) followed by medium planters (Rs. 21.2 per kg of output) and large planters (Rs. 22.5 per kg of output). The productivity of coffee is less whenever it is grown under high shade and native tree cover; it is around 6 quintals per acre when compared with low shade conditions, which is around 8.9 quintals per acre, without a significant difference in the amount invested for growing coffee. Net gain was lower by Rs. 15.5 per kg for the planters growing under high shade and native trees cover when compared with low shade and exotic trees cover.

Keywords: coffee, cultivation, economics, Kodagu

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Authors: Ashwinder K. Dhaliwal, G. P. S. Dhillon

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Eucalyptus is one of the most important forest tree species that can tolerate and grow well on degraded and unfertile soils which are not suitable for other tree species. Besides this, these trees have a short rotation and good economic value. However, the gall inducing wasp Leptocybe invasa Fisher and La Salle has been reported from many countries throughout the world. The spread of L. invasa is of huge economic concern as more than 20,000 ha of young Eucalyptus trees have already been affected in southern states of India. The host plant resistance being the first line of defense against insect pests demands the screening of different germplasm source against L. invasa. Keeping this in view, fourteen different clones of Eucalyptus spp. were evaluated for their susceptibility to L. invasa from a replicated clonal trial planted at Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana. The degree of gall infestation was recorded from three plants of each clone in each replication. Three branches selected from the lower, middle and upper canopy of the trees were selected for recording the total number of galls induced by L. invasa. The statistical analysis was done as per the procedure laid down for completely randomised block design (CRBD), analysis of variance (ANOVA), critical difference (CD) and variance components using Proc GLM (SAS software 9.3, SAS Institute Ltd. U.S.A). All possible treatment means were compared with Duncan’s multiple range test (DMRT) at 1 % probability level. The results showed that the clones C-9, C-45 and C-42 were completely free from the infestation of L. invasa. However, there was minor infestation of L. invasa on C-2135, C-413, C-407, C-35, C-72 and C-37 clones. The clone C-6 was severely infested by L. invasa followed by C-11, C-12, F-316 and C-25 clones. The information generated by this study will be helpful for future breeding and use in afforestation programmes.

Keywords: eucalyptus clones, gall wasp, Leptocybe invasa, screening, susceptibility

Procedia PDF Downloads 221

Authors: Naser Kazemi Eilaki, Ilona Heldal, Carolyn Ahmer, Bjarne Christian Hagen

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Elderly people and people with disabilities are recognized as at-risk groups when it comes to egress and travel from hazard zone to a safe place. One's disability can negatively influence her or his escape time, and this becomes even more important when people from this target group live alone. While earlier studies have frequently addressed quantitative measurements regarding at-risk groups' physical characteristics (e.g., their speed of travel), this paper considers the influence of at-risk groups’ characteristics on their decision and determining better escape routes. Most of evacuation models are based on mapping people's movement and their behaviour to summation times for common activity types on a timeline. Usually, timeline models estimate required safe egress time (RSET) as a sum of four timespans: detection, alarm, premovement, and movement time, and compare this with the available safe egress time (ASET) to determine what is influencing the margin of safety.This paper presents a cross-sectional study for identifying the most critical items on RSET and people's decision-making and with possibilities to include safety knowledge regarding people with physical or cognitive functional impairments. The result will contribute to increased knowledge on considering at-risk groups and disabilities for designing and developing safe escape routes. The expected results can be an asset to predict the probabilistic behavioural pattern of at-risk groups and necessary components for defining a framework for understanding how stakeholders can consider various disabilities when determining the margin of safety for a safe escape route.

Keywords: fire safety, evacuation, decision-making, at-risk groups

Procedia PDF Downloads 105

Authors: Belachew Gebrewold

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The Horn of Africa is marred by complex and systematic internal and external political, economic and social-cultural causes of conflict that result in internal displacement and migration. This paper engages with them and shows how such a study can help us to understand migration, both in this region and more generally. The conflict has occurred within states, between states, among proxies, between armies. Human insecurities as a result of the state collapse of Somalia, the rise of Islamic fundamentalism in the whole region, recurrent drought affecting the livelihoods of subsistence farmers as well as nomads, exposure to hunger, environmental degradation, youth unemployment, rapid growth of slums around big cities, and political repression (especially in Eritrea) have been driving various segments of the regional population into regional and international migration. Eritrea has been going through a brutal dictatorship which pushes many Eritreans to flee their country and be exposed to human trafficking, torture, detention, and agony on their way to Europe mainly through Egypt, Libya and Israel. Similarly, Somalia has been devastated since 1991 by unending civil war, state collapse, and radical Islamists. There are some important aspects to highlight in the conflict-migration nexus in the Horn of Africa: first, the main push factor for the Somalis and Eritreans to leave their countries and risk their lives is the physical insecurity they have been facing in their countries. Secondly, as a result of the conflict the economic infrastructure is massively destroyed. Investment is rare; job opportunities are out of sight. Thirdly, in such a grim situation the politically and economically induced decision to migrate is a household decision, not only an individual decision. Based on this third point this research study took place in the Horn of Africa between 2014 and 2016 during different occasions. The main objective of the research was to understanding how the increasing migration is affecting the socio-economic and socio-political environment, and conversely how the socio-economic and socio-political environments are increasing migration decisions; and whether and how these decisions are individual or family decisions. The main finding is the higher the human insecurity, the higher the family decision; the lower the human insecurity, the higher the individual decision. These findings apply not only to the Eritrean, Somali migrants but also to Ethiopian migrants. But the general impacts of migration on sending countries’ human security is quite mixed and complex.

Keywords: Eritrea, Ethiopia, Horn of Africa, insecurity, migration, Somalia

Procedia PDF Downloads 277

Authors: Luís Marques, João Rocha, Andreia Fernandes, Maria Moura, Cláudia Caseiro, Filipa Figueiredo, João Nunes

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The implementation of circularity strategies other than recycling, such as reducing the amount of raw material, as well as reusing or sharing existing products, remains marginal. The European Commission announced that the transition towards a more circular economy could lead to the net creation of about 700,000 jobs in Europe by 2030, through additional labour demand from recycling plants, repair services and other circular activities. Efforts to create new circular business models in accordance with completely circular processes, as opposed to linear ones, have increased considerably in recent years. In order to create a societal Circular Economy transition model, it is necessary to include innovative solutions, where startups play a key role. Early-stage startups based on new business models according to circular processes often face difficulties in creating enough impact. The StartUp Zero Program designs a model and approach to increase the flow of startups in the Circular Economy field, focusing on a systemic decision analysis and multi-generational approach, considering Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis to support a decision-making tool, which is also supported by the use of a combination of an Analytical Hierarchy Process and Multi-Attribute Value Theory methods. We define principles, criteria and indicators for evaluating startup prerogatives, quantifying the evaluation process in a unique result. Additionally, this entrepreneurship program spanning 16 months involved more than 2400 young people, from ages 14 to 23, in more than 200 interaction activities.

Keywords: circular economy, entrepreneurship, startups;, multi-criteria decision analysis

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Authors: Dinesh N. Kurup, Celine Perriera

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The economic development of any country is based on the policies adopted by the government from time to time. If these policies are framed by the opinion of the people of the country, there is need for having strong knowledge base, right from the school level. There should be emphasis to provide in education, an ability to take informed decisions regarding socio-scientific issues. It would be better to adopt this practice in high school classrooms to build capacity among future citizens. This study is an attempt to provide a different approach of teaching and learning in classrooms at the high school level in Indian schools for providing opportunity for informed decision making regarding nuclear power use. A unit of work based on the 5E instructional model about the use of nuclear energy is used to build knowledge base and find out the effectiveness in terms of its influence for taking decisions as a future citizen. A sample of 120 students from three high schools using different curricula and teaching and learning methods were chosen for this study. This research used a design based research method. A pre and post questionnaire based on the theory of reasoned action, structured observations, focus group interviews and opportunity for decision making were used during the intervention. The data analysed qualitatively and quantitatively, and the qualitative data were coded into categories based on responses. The results of the study show that students were able to make informed decisions and could give reasons for their decisions. They were enthusiastic in formulating policy making based on their knowledge base and have strong held views and reasoning for their choice.

Keywords: informed decision making, socio-scientific issues, nuclear energy use, policy making

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Authors: Armand Okende, Joëlle De Weerdt, Esther Fichtler, Maaike De Ridder, Hans Beeckman

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The rainforest plays a crucial role in regulating the climate balance. The biodiversity of tropical rainforests is undeniable, but many aspects remain poorly known, which directly influences its management. Despite the efforts of sustainable forest management, human pressure in terms of exploitation and smuggling of timber forms a problem compared to exploited species whose status is considered "vulnerable" on the IUCN red list compiled by. Commercial species in Class III of the Democratic Republic of Congo are the least known in the market operating, and their biology is unknown or non-existent. Identification of wood in terms of descriptions and anatomical measurements of the wood is in great demand for various stakeholders such as scientists, customs, IUCN, etc. The objective of this study is the qualitative and quantitative description of the anatomical characteristics of commercial species in Class III of DR Congo. The site of the Luki Biosphere Reserve was chosen because of its high tree species richness. This study focuses on the wood anatomy of 14 commercial species of Class III of DR Congo. Thirty-four wooden discs were collected for these species. The following parameters were measured in the field: Diameter at breast height (DBH), total height and geographic coordinates. Microtomy, identification of vessel parameters (diameter, density and grouping) and photograph of the microscopic sections and determining age were performed in this study. The results obtained are detailed anatomical descriptions of species in Class III of the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Keywords: sustainable management of forest, rainforest, commercial species of class iii, vessel diameter, vessel density, grouping vessel

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Authors: Jennifer Leach, Umashanger Thayasivam

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The use of technology has benefited society in more ways than one ever thought possible. Unfortunately, though, as society’s knowledge of technology has advanced, so has its knowledge of ways to use technology to manipulate people. This has led to a simultaneous advancement in the world of fraud. Machine learning techniques can offer a possible solution to help decrease this advancement. This research explores how the use of various machine learning techniques can aid in detecting fraudulent activity across two different types of fraudulent data, and the accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 were recorded for each method. Each machine learning model was also tested across five different training and testing splits in order to discover which testing split and technique would lead to the most optimal results.

Keywords: data science, fraud detection, machine learning, supervised learning

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Authors: M. Kharrat, G. Moreau, Z. Aboura

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The latest advances in the weaving industry, combined with increasingly sophisticated means of materials processing, have made it possible to produce complex 3D composite structures. Mainly used in aeronautics, composite materials with 3D architecture offer better mechanical properties than 2D reinforced composites. Nevertheless, these materials require a good understanding of their behavior. Because of the complexity of such materials, the damage mechanisms are multiple, and the scenario of their appearance and evolution depends on the nature of the exerted solicitations. The AE technique is a well-established tool for discriminating between the damage mechanisms. Suitable sensors are used during the mechanical test to monitor the structural health of the material. Relevant AE-features are then extracted from the recorded signals, followed by a data analysis using pattern recognition techniques. In order to better understand the damage scenarios of interlock composite materials, a multi-instrumentation was set-up in this work for tracking damage initiation and development, especially in the vicinity of the first significant damage, called macro-damage. The deployed instrumentation includes video-microscopy, Digital Image Correlation, Acoustic Emission (AE) and micro-tomography. In this study, a multi-variable AE data analysis approach was developed for the discrimination between the different signal classes representing the different emission sources during testing. An unsupervised classification technique was adopted to perform AE data clustering without a priori knowledge. The multi-instrumentation and the clustered data served to label the different signal families and to build a learning database. This latter is useful to construct a supervised classifier that can be used for automatic recognition of the AE signals. Several materials with different ingredients were tested under various solicitations in order to feed and enrich the learning database. The methodology presented in this work was useful to refine the damage threshold for the new generation materials. The damage mechanisms around this threshold were highlighted. The obtained signal classes were assigned to the different mechanisms. The isolation of a 'noise' class makes it possible to discriminate between the signals emitted by damages without resorting to spatial filtering or increasing the AE detection threshold. The approach was validated on different material configurations. For the same material and the same type of solicitation, the identified classes are reproducible and little disturbed. The supervised classifier constructed based on the learning database was able to predict the labels of the classified signals.

Keywords: acoustic emission, classifier, damage mechanisms, first damage threshold, interlock composite materials, pattern recognition

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Authors: Ross Goroshin, Joan Bruna, Jonathan Tompson, David Eigen, Yann LeCun

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Current state-of-the-art classification and detection algorithms rely on supervised training. In this work we study unsupervised feature learning in the context of temporally coherent video data. We focus on feature learning from unlabeled video data, using the assumption that adjacent video frames contain semantically similar information. This assumption is exploited to train a convolutional pooling auto-encoder regularized by slowness and sparsity. We establish a connection between slow feature learning to metric learning and show that the trained encoder can be used to define a more temporally and semantically coherent metric.

Keywords: machine learning, pattern clustering, pooling, classification

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Authors: Rachel Goh, Alexander McNab, Brent Alsop, David O'Hare

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In a busy airport, the decision whether to take passengers aside and search their luggage for dangerous items can have important consequences. If an officer fails to search and stop a bag containing a dangerous object, a life-threatening incident might occur. But stopping a bag unnecessarily means that the officer might lose time searching the bag and face an angry passenger. Passengers’ bags, however, are often cluttered with personal belongings of varying shapes and sizes. It can be difficult to determine what is dangerous or not, especially if the decisions must be made quickly in cases of busy flight schedules. Additionally, the decision to search bags is often made with input from the surrounding officers on duty. This scenario raises several questions: 1) Past findings suggest that humans are more reliant on an automated aid when under time pressure in a visual search task, but does this translate to human-human reliance? 2) Are humans more likely to agree with another person if the person is assumed to be an expert or a novice in these ambiguous situations? In the present study, forty-one participants performed a simulated luggage-screening task. They were partnered with an advisor of two different statuses (expert vs. novice), but of equal accuracy (90% correct). Participants made two choices each trial: their first choice with no advisor input, and their second choice after advisor input. The second choice was made within either 2 seconds or 8 seconds; failure to do so resulted in a long time-out period. Under the 2-second time pressure, participants were more likely to disagree with their own first choice and agree with the expert advisor, regardless of whether the expert was right or wrong, but especially when the expert suggested that the bag was safe. The findings indicate a tendency for people to assume less responsibility for their decisions and defer to their partner, especially when a quick decision is required. This over-reliance on others’ opinions might have negative consequences in real life, particularly when relying on fallible human judgments. More awareness is needed regarding how a stressful environment may influence reliance on other’s opinions, and how better techniques are needed to make the best decisions under high stress and time pressure.

Keywords: advisors, decision-making, time pressure, trust

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Authors: Krisala Joshi, Sayanta Ghosh, Renu Lata, Jagdish C. Kuniyal

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Throughout the world, monitoring and estimating the changing pattern of forests across diverse landscapes through remote sensing is instrumental in understanding the interactions of human activities and the ecological environment with the changing climate. Forest change detection using satellite imageries has emerged as an important means to gather information on a regional scale. Kullu valley in Himachal Pradesh, India is situated in a transitional zone between the lesser and the greater Himalayas. Thus, it presents a typical rugged mountainous terrain with moderate to high altitude which varies from 1200 meters to over 6000 meters. Due to changes in agricultural cropping patterns, urbanization, industrialization, hydropower generation, climate change, tourism, and anthropogenic forest fire, it has undergone a tremendous transformation in forest cover in the past three decades. The loss and degradation of forest cover results in soil erosion, loss of biodiversity including damage to wildlife habitats, and degradation of watershed areas, and deterioration of the overall quality of nature and life. The supervised classification of LANDSAT satellite data was performed to assess the changes in forest cover in Kullu valley over the years 2000 to 2020. Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR) was calculated to discriminate between burned and unburned areas of the forest. Our study reveals that in Kullu valley, the increasing number of forest fire incidents specifically, those due to anthropogenic activities has been on a rise, each subsequent year. The main objective of the present study is, therefore, to estimate the change in the forest cover of Kullu valley and to address the various social aspects responsible for the anthropogenic forest fires. Also, to assess its impact on the significant changes in the regional climatic factors, specifically, temperature, humidity, and precipitation over three decades, with the help of satellite imageries and ground data. The main outcome of the paper, we believe, will be helpful for the administration for making a quantitative assessment of the forest cover area changes due to anthropogenic activities and devising long-term measures for creating awareness among the local people of the area.

Keywords: Anthropogenic Activities, Forest Change Detection, Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR), Supervised Classification

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Authors: Mohan Bikram Thapa

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Despite the successful implementation of community forestry program, a number of pros and cons have been raised on Terai community forestry in the case of lowland locally called Terai region of Nepal, which climatically belongs to tropical humid and possessed high-quality forests in terms of ecology and economy. The study aims to investigate the local pricing strategy of forest products and its impacts on equitable forest benefits sharing, the collection of community fund and carrying out livelihood improvement activities. The study was carried out on six community forests revealed that local people have substantially benefited from the community forests. However, being the region is heterogeneous by socio-economic conditions and forest resources have higher economic potential, the decision of low pricing strategy made by the local people have created inequality problems while sharing the forest benefits, and poorly contributed to community fund collection and consequently carrying out limited activities of livelihood improvement. The paper argued that the decision of low pricing strategy of forest products is counterproductive to promote the equitable benefit-sharing in the areas of heterogeneous socio-economic conditions with high-value forests. The low pricing strategy has been increasing accessibility of better off households at a higher rate than poor, as such households always have the higher affording capacity. It is also defective to increase the community fund and carry out activities of livelihood improvement effectively. The study concluded that unilateral decentralized forest policy and decision-making autonomy to the local people seems questionable unless their decision-making capacities are enriched sufficiently. Therefore, it is recommended that empowerments of decision-making capacity of local people and their respective institutions together with policy and program formulation are prerequisite for efficient and equitable community forest management and its long-term sustainability.

Keywords: benefit sharing, community forest, livelihood, pricing mechanism, Nepal

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Authors: A. Esra İdemen, Sinan M. Şener, Emrah Acar

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The technological paradigm of the disaster management field, especially in the case of governmental intervention strategies, is generally based on rapid and flexible accommodation solutions. From various technical solution patterns used to address the immediate housing needs of disaster victims, the adaptive re-use of existing buildings can be considered to be both low-cost and practical. However, there is a scarcity of analytical methods to screen, select and adapt buildings to help decision makers in cases of emergency. Following an extensive literature review, this paper aims to highlight key points and problem areas associated with the adaptive re-use of buildings within the disaster management context. In other disciplines such as real estate management, the adaptive re-use potential (ARP) of existing buildings is typically based on the prioritization of a set of technical and non-technical criteria which are then weighted to arrive at an economically viable investment decision. After a disaster, however, the assessment of the ARP of buildings requires consideration of different/additional layers of analysis which stem from general disaster management principles and the peculiarities of different types of disasters, as well as of their victims. In this paper, a discussion of the development of an adaptive re-use potential (ARP) assessment model is presented. It is thought that governmental and non-governmental decision makers who are required to take quick decisions to accommodate displaced masses following disasters are likely to benefit from the implementation of such a model.

Keywords: adaptive re-use of buildings, disaster management, temporary housing, assessment model

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Authors: Christoph Ostermair

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We deal with the effect of correlation between prospects on human decision making under uncertainty as proposed by the comparatively new and promising model of “salience theory of choice under risk”. In this regard, we show that the theory entails the prediction that the inconsistency of choices, known as the Allais paradox, should not be an issue in the context of “real-life decision making”, which typically corresponds to situations of subjective uncertainty. The Allais paradox, probably the best-known anomaly regarding expected utility theory, would then essentially have no practical relevance. If, however, empiricism contradicts this prediction, salience theory might suffer a serious setback. Explanations of the model for variable human choice behavior are mostly the result of a particular mechanism that does not come to play under perfect correlation. Hence, if it turns out that correlation between prospects – as typically found in real-world applications – does not influence human decision making in the expected way, this might to a large extent cost the theory its explanatory power. The empirical literature regarding the Allais paradox under subjective uncertainty is so far rather moderate. Beyond that, the results are hard to maintain as an argument, as the presentation formats commonly employed, supposably have generated so-called event-splitting effects, thereby distorting subjects’ choice behavior. In our own incentivized experimental study, we control for such effects by means of two different choice settings. We find significant event-splitting effects in both settings, thereby supporting the suspicion that the so far existing empirical results related to Allais paradoxes under subjective uncertainty may not be able to answer the question at hand. Nevertheless, we find that the basic tendency behind the Allais paradox, which is a particular switch of the preference relation due to a modified common consequence, shared by two prospects, is still existent both under an event-splitting and a coalesced presentation format. Yet, the modal choice pattern is in line with the prediction of salience theory. As a consequence, the effect of correlation, as proposed by the model, might - if anything - only weaken the systematic choice pattern behind the Allais paradox.

Keywords: Allais paradox, common consequence effect, models of decision making under risk and uncertainty, salience theory

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Authors: M. A. Mulatu, L. C. Chang, Y. S. Han

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Energy harvesting tags with cooperative communication capabilities are emerging as possible infrastructure for internet of things (IoT) applications. This paper studies about the \ cooperative transmission strategy for a network of energy harvesting active networked tags (EnHANTs), that is adapted to the available energy resource and identification request. We consider a network of EnHANT-equipped objects to communicate with the destination either directly or by cooperating with neighboring objects. We formulate the the problem as a Markov decision process (MDP) under synchronised On/Off keying (S-OOK) pulse modulation format. The simulation results are provided to show the the performance of the cooperative transmission policy and compared against the greedy and conservative policies of single-link transmission.

Keywords: cooperative communication, transmission strategy, energy harvesting, Markov decision process, value iteration

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Authors: Lucas A. Silva, Carla R. Aguiar

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This work presents a proposal to perform contextual sentiment analysis using a supervised learning algorithm and disregarding the extensive training of annotators. To achieve this goal, a web platform was developed to perform the entire procedure outlined in this paper. The main contribution of the pipeline described in this article is to simplify and automate the annotation process through a system of analysis of congruence between the notes. This ensured satisfactory results even without using specialized annotators in the context of the research, avoiding the generation of biased training data for the classifiers. For this, a case study was conducted in a blog of entrepreneurship. The experimental results were consistent with the literature related annotation using formalized process with experts.

Keywords: sentiment analysis, untrained annotators, naive bayes, entrepreneurship, contextualized classifier

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Authors: Sonia Anand Knowlton

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In many ways, judges can express their personality within and beyond their role as a judge. Judges can use their unique backgrounds and life experiences to inform their legal reasons and can also participate in certain extrajudicial activities outside of their role on the bench. For many judges, the line between the expression of this judicial personality, on the one hand, and the consequence of jeopardizing the public’s perception of their impartiality, on the other, is ambiguous if not wholly unclear. In the famous Canadian decision R v RDS, for instance, a Black judge who was hearing a case about police violence against a Black person was accused of being biased after she acknowledged that her community’s racial dynamics may have impacted the police’s conduct. Many within the legal community might find comfort in the belief that judges do not need to bring their ‘personality’ to the bench in order to uncover the law’s truths and impartially apply it. Indeed, and for a good reason, judges are often discouraged from allowing their personality to shine through in their role as a judge – because the expression of judicial personality can compromise the public perception of the impartiality of the administration of justice. This paper evaluates the theoretical constraints on the expression of judicial personality as a tool for legal decision-making and argues that judges from minority groups are held to a higher level of impartiality. Specifically, minority judges are disproportionately constrained from 1) using life experience to apply the law and 2) engaging in certain extrajudicial activities.

Keywords: judging, legal decision making, judicial personality, extrajudicial activities

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Authors: Katarina Rogulj, Ivana Racetin, Jelena Kilic

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In this study, the fuzzy logic approach (FLA) was developed for construction project management (CPM) under uncertainty and duality. The focus was on decision making in selecting the type of the glass facade for a residential-commercial building in the main design. The adoption of fuzzy sets was capable of reflecting construction managers’ reliability level over subjective judgments, and thus the robustness of the system can be achieved. An α-cuts method was utilized for discretizing the fuzzy sets in FLA. This method can communicate all uncertain information in the optimization process, taking into account the values of this information. Furthermore, FLA provides in-depth analyses of diverse policy scenarios that are related to various levels of economic aspects when it comes to the construction projects' valid decision making. The developed approach is applied to CPM to demonstrate its applicability. Analyzing the materials of glass facades, variants were defined. The development of the FLA for the CPM included relevant construction projec'ts stakeholders that were involved in the criteria definition to evaluate each variant. Using fuzzy Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory Method (DEMATEL) comparison of the glass facade was conducted. This way, a rank, according to the priorities for inclusion into the main design, of variants is obtained. The concept was tested on a residential-commercial building in the city of Rijeka, Croatia. The newly developed methodology was then compared with the existing one. The aim of the research was to define an approach that will improve current judgments and decisions when it comes to the material selection of buildings facade as one of the most important architectural and engineering tasks in the main design. The advantage of the new methodology compared to the old one is that it includes the subjective side of the managers’ decisions, as an inevitable factor in each decision making. The proposed approach can help construction projects managers to identify the desired type of glass facade according to their preference and practical conditions, as well as facilitate in-depth analyses of tradeoffs between economic efficiency and architectural design.

Keywords: construction projects management, DEMATEL, fuzzy logic approach, glass façade selection

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Authors: Zahra Abdolkarimi, Naser Zouri

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Nowadays, there is unbelievable growing of Robots created a collection of complex and motivate subject in robotic and intellectual ornate, also it made a mechatronics style base of theoretical and technical way in Robocop. Additionally, robotics system recommended RoboCup factor as a provider of some standardization and testing method in case of computer discussion widely. The actual purpose of RoboCup is creating independent team of robots in 2050 based of FiFa roles to bring the victory in compare of world star team. In addition, decision making of robots depends to environment reaction, self-player and rival player with using inductive Fuzzy system valuation subsidiary to solve issue of robots in land game. The measure of selection in compare with other methods depends to amount of victories percentage in the same team that plays accidently. Consequences, shows method of our discussion is the best way for Particle Swarm Optimization and Fuzzy system compare to other decision of robotics algorithmic.

Keywords: PSO algorithm, inference fuzzy system, chaos theory, soccer robot league

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Authors: Zahra Hamedani

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Many wonderful technological developments in recent years has opened up the possibility of using intelligent buildings for a number of important applications, ranging from minimizing resource usage as well as increasing building efficiency to maximizing comfort, adaption to inhabitants and responsiveness to environmental changes. The concept of an intelligent building refers to the highly embedded, interactive environment within which by exploiting the use of artificial intelligence provides the ability to know its configuration, anticipate the optimum dynamic response to prevailing environmental stimuli, and actuate the appropriate physical reaction to provide comfort and efficiency. This paper contains a general identification of the intelligence paradigm and its impacts on the architecture arena, that with examining the performance of artificial intelligence, a mechanism to analyze and finally for decision-making to control the environment will be described. This mechanism would be a hierarchy of the rational agents which includes decision-making, information, communication and physical layers. This multi-agent system relies upon machine learning techniques for automated discovery, prediction and decision-making. Then, the application of this mechanism regarding adaptation and responsiveness of intelligent building will be provided in two scales of environmental and user. Finally, we review the identifications of sustainability and evaluate the potentials of intelligent building systems in the creation of sustainable architecture and environment.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, intelligent building, responsiveness, adaption, sustainability

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