Search results for: high risk groups

Authors: M. V. Shivaani, P. K. Jain, Surendra S. Yadav

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Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs), being government-owned organizations have commitments for the economic and social wellbeing of the society; this commitment needs to be reflected in their risk-taking, decision-making and governance structures. Therefore, the primary objective of the study is to suggest measures that may lead to improvement in performance of PSUs. To achieve this objective two normative frameworks (one relating to risk levels and other relating to governance structure) are being put forth. The risk index is based on nine risks, such as, solvency risk, liquidity risk, accounting risk, etc. and each of the risks have been scored on a scale of 1 to 5. The governance index is based on eleven variables, such as, board independence, diversity, risk management committee, etc. Each of them are scored on a scale of 1 to five. The sample consists of 39 PSUs that featured in Nifty 500 index and, the study covers a 10 year period from April 1, 2005 to March, 31, 2015. Return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) have been used as proxies of firm performance. The control variables used in the model include, age of firm, growth rate of firm and size of firm. A dummy variable has also been used to factor in the effects of recession. Given the panel nature of data and possibility of endogeneity, dynamic panel data- generalized method of moments (Diff-GMM) regression has been used. It is worth noting that the corporate governance index is positively related to both ROA and ROE, indicating that with the improvement in governance structure, PSUs tend to perform better. Considering the components of CGI, it may be suggested that (i). PSUs ensure adequate representation of women on Board, (ii). appoint a Chief Risk Officer, and (iii). constitute a risk management committee. The results also indicate that there is a negative association between risk index and returns. These results not only validate the framework used to develop the risk index but also provide a yardstick to PSUs benchmark their risk-taking if they want to maximize their ROA and ROE. While constructing the CGI, certain non-compliances were observed, even in terms of mandatory requirements, such as, proportion of independent directors. Such infringements call for stringent penal provisions and better monitoring of PSUs. Further, if the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) bring about such reforms in the PSUs and make mandatory the adherence to the normative frameworks put forth in the study, PSUs may have more effective and efficient decision-making, lower risks and hassle free management; all these ultimately leading to better ROA and ROE.

Keywords: PSU, risk governance, diff-GMM, firm performance, the risk index

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Authors: Clara Luwe, Oliver Harness, Helena Meally, Kim Martin, Alexandra Harrington

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Background: The role of ‘Renal Specialist Podiatrist’ originated in 2022 due to prevailing evidence of patients with diabetes and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) on haemodialysis (HD) and active ulcerations that were at higher risk of rapid deterioration, foot-related hospital admissions, and lower limb amputations. This role started in April 2022 with the aim of screening all patients on haemodialysis and instigating preventative measures to reduce serious foot related complications. Methods: A comprehensive neurovascular foot assessment was completed to establish baseline vascular status and identify those with peripheral arterial disease (PAD) for all patients on HD. Individual’s foot risk was stratified, advice and education tailored and issued. Identifying all diabetes patients on HD as high-risk for diabetic foot complications. Major Findings: All patients screened revealed over half of the caseload had diabetes, and more than half had a clinical presentation of PAD. All those presenting with ulcerations had a diagnosis of diabetes. Of the presenting ulcerations, the majority of these ulcers predated the renal specialist post and were classified as severe >3 SINBAD Score. Since April’22, complications have been identified quicker, reducing the severity (SINBAD<3 or below), and have improved healing times, in line with the national average. During the eight months of the role being in place, we have seen a reduction in minor amputations and no major amputations. Conclusion: By screening all patients on haemodialysis and focusing on education, early recognition of complications, appropriate treatment, and timely onward referral, we can reduce the risk of foot Diabetic foot ulcerations and lower limb amputations. Having regular podiatry input to stratify and facilitate high-risk, active wound patients across different services has helped to keep these patients stable, prevent amputations, and reduce foot-related hospital admissions and mortality from foot-related disease. By improving the accessibility to a specialist podiatrist, patients felt able to raise concerns sooner. This has helped to implement treatment at the earliest possible opportunity, enabling the identification and healing of ulcers at an earlier and less complex stage (SINBAD <3), thus, preventing potential limb-threatening complications.

Keywords: renal, podiatry, haemodialysis, prevention, early detection

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Authors: Ahmed O. Babaleye, Rafet E. Kurt

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The global oil and gas industry is beginning to witness an increase in the number of installations moving towards decommissioning. Decommissioning of offshore installations is a complex, costly and hazardous activity, making safety one of the major concerns. Among existing removal options, complete and partial removal options pose the highest risks. Therefore, a dynamic risk model of the accidents from the two options is important to assess the risks on an overall basis. In this study, a risk-based safety model is developed to conduct quantitative risk analysis (QRA) for jacket structure systems failure. Firstly, bow-tie (BT) technique is utilised to model the causal relationship between the system failure and potential accident scenarios. Subsequently, to relax the shortcomings of BT, Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) were established to dynamically assess associated uncertainties and conditional dependencies. The BBN is developed through a similitude mapping of the developed bow-tie. The BBN is used to update the failure probabilities of the contributing elements through diagnostic analysis, thus, providing a case-specific and realistic safety analysis method when compared to a bow-tie. This paper presents the application of dynamic safety analysis to guide the allocation of risk control measures and consequently, drive down the avoidable cost of remediation.

Keywords: Bayesian belief network, offshore decommissioning, dynamic safety model, quantitative risk analysis

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Authors: K. Shyamnath, K. Suresh Kutty

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The purpose of the study was to find out the effect of three resistance training methods on performance-related variables of powerlifters. A total of forty male students (N=40) who had participated in Kannur University powerlifting championship were selected as subjects. The age group of the subjects ranged from 18 years old to 25 years old. The selected subjects were equally divided into four groups (n=10) of three experimental groups and a control group. The experimental Group I underwent traditional resistance training (TRTG), Group II underwent combined traditional resistance training and plyometrics (TRTPG), and Group III underwent combined traditional resistance training and resistance training with high rhythm (TRTHRG). Group IV acted as the control group (CG) receiving no training during the experimental period. The duration of the experimental period was sixteen weeks, five days per week. Powerlifting performance was assessed by the 1RM test in the squat, bench press and deadlift. Performance-related variables assessed were chest girth, arm girth, forearm girth, thigh girth, and calf girth. Pre-test and post-test were conducted a day before and two days after the experimental period on all groups. Analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was applied to analyze the significant difference. The 0.05 level of confidence was fixed as the level of significance to test the F ratio obtained by the analysis of covariance. The result indicates that there is a significant effect of all the selected resistance training methods on the performance and selected performance-related variables of powerlifters. Combined traditional resistance training and plyometrics and combined traditional resistance training and resistance training with high rhythm proved better than the traditional resistance training in improving performance and selected performance-related variables of powerlifters. There was no significant difference between combined traditional resistance training and plyometrics and combined traditional resistance training and resistance training with high rhythm in improving performance and selected performance-related variables of powerlifters.

Keywords: girth, plyometrics, powerlifting, resistance training

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Authors: Ahmad Shanei, Milad Baradaran-Ghahfarokhi

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This study aimed to investigate testicular dose (TD) and the associated risk of heritable disease from common pelvis radiotherapy of male patients in Iran. In this work, the relation between TD and changes in beam energy, pelvis size, source to skin distance (SSD) and beam directions (anterior or posterior) were also evaluated. The values of TDs were measured on 67 randomly selected male patients during common pelvis radiotherapy using 1.17 and 1.33 MeV, Theratron Cobalt-60 unit at SSD of 80 cm and 9 MV, Neptun 10 PC and 18 MV, GE Saturne 20 at SSD of 100 cm at Seyed-Al Shohada Hospital, Isfahan, Iran. Results showed that the maximum TD was up to 12% of the tumor dose. Considering the risk factor for radiation-induced heritable disorders of 0.1% per Sv, an excess risk of hereditary disorders of 72 per 10000 births was conservatively calculated. There was a significant difference in the measured TD using different treatment machines and energies (P < 0.001). The TD at 100 cm SSD were much less than that for 80 cm SSD (P <0.001). The Pearson Correlation test showed that, as expected, there was a strong correlation between TD and patient’s pelvis size (r = 0.275, P <0.001). Using the student’s t-tests, it was found that, there was not a significant difference between TD and beam direction (P = 0.231). Iranian male patients undergoing pelvic radiotherapy have the potential of receiving a TD of more than 1 Gy which might result in temporary azoospermia. The risk for induction of hereditary disorders in future generations should be considered as low but not negligible in comparison with the correspondent nominal risk.

Keywords: pelvis radiotherapy, testicular dose, infertility, hereditary effects

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Authors: Leif Inge Tjelta, Gerd Lise Nordbotten, Cathrine Nyhus Hagum, Merete Hagen Helland

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Overweight and obesity can lead to numerous health problems, and inactive people are more often overweight and obese compared to physically active people. Even a moderate weight loss can improve cardiovascular and endocrine disease risk factors. The aim of the study was to examine to what extent overweight and obese adults starting up with two weekly intensive running sessions had an increase in aerobic capacity, reduction in BMI and waist circumference and changes in body composition after 33 weeks of training. An additional aim was to see if there were differences between participants who, in addition to training, also received lifestyle modification education, including practical cooking (nutritional guidance and training group (NTG =32)) compared to those who were not given any nutritional guidance (training group (TG=40)). 72 participants (49 women), mean age of 46.1 ( ± 10.4) were included. Inclusion Criteria: Previous untrained and inactive adults in all age groups, BMI ≥ 25, desire to become fitter and reduce their BMI. The two weekly supervised training sessions consisted of 10 min warm up followed by 20 to 21 min effective interval running where the participants’ heart rate were between 82 and 92% of hearth rate maximum. The sessions were completed with ten minutes whole body strength training. Measures of BMI, waist circumference (WC) and 3000m running time were performed at the start of the project (T1), after 15 weeks (T2) and at the end of the project (T3). Measurements of fat percentage, muscle mass, and visceral fat were performed at T1 and T3. Twelve participants (9 women) from both groups, who all scored around average on the 3000 m pre-test, were chosen to do a VO₂max test at T1 and T3. The NTG were given ten theoretical sessions (80 minutes each) and eight practical cooking sessions (140 minutes each). There was a significant reduction in bout groups for WC and BMI from T1 to T2. There was not found any further reduction from T2 to T3. Although not significant, NTG reduced their WC more than TG. For both groups, the percentage reduction in WC was similar to the reduction in BMI. There was a decrease in fat percentage in both groups from pre-test to post-test, whereas, for muscle mass, a small, but insignificant increase was observed for both groups. There was a decrease in 3000m running time for both groups from T1 to T2 as well as from T2 to T3. The difference between T2 and T3 was not statistically significant. The 12 participants who tested VO₂max had an increase of 2.86 ( ± 3.84) mlkg⁻¹ min⁻¹ in VO₂max and 3:02 min (± 2:01 min) reduction in running time over 3000 m from T1 until T3. There was a strong, negative correlation between the two variables. The study shows that two intensive running session in 33 weeks can increase aerobic fitness and reduce BMI, WC and fat percent in inactive adults. Cost guidance in addition to training will give additional effect.

Keywords: interval training, nutritional guidance, fitness, BMI

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Authors: Marwa Mamdouh Shaban, Nagat Saied Habib, Shireen Ezz El-Din Taha, Eman Mahmoud Seif El-Naser

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Background: Dental nurses and dentists were constantly exposed to a number of specific work related health risk factors which develop and intensify with years. Awareness regarding these work-related health risk factors and implementation of preventive health care measures could provide a safe work environment for all dental nurses and dentists. Aim of the study: to assess the work-related health risk factors among dental nurses and dentists and preventive health care measures applied among dental nurses and dentists. Research design: A descriptive design was utilized. Sample: Convenience sample of 50 dental nurses and 150 dentists were included in the current study. Setting: This study was conducted at the dental clinics at faculty of oral and dental medicine, Al-Kasr Al Ainy Hospital. Tools of data collection: Three tools were developed, tested for clarity, and feasibility: a-Socio-demographic data sheet, b-Work-related health risk factors questionnaire, and c-structured observational checklist. Results: The most common work risk factors prevailing among dental nurses were emotional exhaustion (82%), low back pain (76%) and latex allergy (62%) and the most common work risk factors prevailing among dentists were percutaneous exposure incident (100%), emotional exhaustion (100%) and low back pain (93.3%). Also, statistically significant negative correlation (r=-0.274, at p = 0.045) between the incidence of chemical health risk factors and application of chemical preventive measures among dental nurses. A statistically significant negative correlation (r=-0.177, at p = 0.030) between the incidences of mechanical health risk factors among dentists and application of mechanical preventive measures. Conclusion: The studied dental nurses and dentists exposed to many work related health risk factors as latex allergy, percutaneous exposure incidents, low back pain and emotional exhaustion related to inappropriate application of preventive health care measures. Recommendation: Raise awareness of dental nurses and dentists about work-related health risk factors, design and implement health education program for preventive health care measures.

Keywords: work-related risk factors, preventive measures, nurses, dentists

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Authors: Renny Wulandari

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This study aims to determine how the influence of Non Performing Financing, Financing Deposit Ratio, Operating Expenses and Operating Revenue and Net Income Margin on the disclosure of financial risk in Sharia banks. To achieve these objectives conducted associative research method with data source in the form of secondary data that is annual report data with period 2013-2016. The population in this study is the sharia banking industry in Indonesia and who issued the annual financial statements. A method of sampling use probability sampling. Analysis in this research is with SEM-PLS. The result is Net Income Margin has a significant effect on financial risk disclosure while Non Performing Financing (NPF) Financing to Deposit Ratio (FDR), Operating Expenses and Operating Revenue (OEOR) have no effect on the disclosure of financial risk in sharia bank.

Keywords: Sharia banks, disclosure of risk financial, non performing financing, financing deposit ratio, operating expenses and operating revenue, net income margin

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Authors: Samir Srairi

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This paper investigates the impact of the internal corporate governance on bank performance by constructing a corporate governance index (CGI) for 27 Islamic banks operating in five Arab Gulf countries. Using content analysis on the banks’ annual reports for 3 years (2011-2013), the index construction uses information on six important corporate governance mechanisms, namely board structure, risk management, transparency and disclosure, audit committee, Sharia supervisory board and investment account holders. The results demonstrate that Islamic banks adhere to 54% of the attributes addressed in the CGI. The most frequently reported and disclosed elements are Sharia supervisory board followed by board structure and risk management. The findings related to countries revealed that only two countries, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, possess a higher level of CGI. Our regression results provide evidence that Islamic banks with higher levels of corporate governance report high operating performance measured by return on assets and net interest margin. Finally, as of the effect of internal and external factors, we identified four variables that were associated with bank performance, namely size, equity, risk and concentration.

Keywords: governance mechanisms, corporate governance index, bank performance, Islamic banks, GCC countries

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Authors: Mathewos Temesgen, Lemi Geleta

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Lake Koka is one of the Ethiopian Central Rift Valleys lakes, where the absorbance of domestic, agricultural, and industrial waste from the nearby industrial and agro-industrial activities is very common. The aim of this research was to assess the heavy metal bioaccumulation in edible parts of common carp (Cyprinus carpio) in Lake Koka and the health risks associated with the dietary intake of the fish. Three sampling sites were selected randomly for primary data collection. Physicochemical parameters (pH, Total Dissolved Solids, Dissolved Oxygen and Electrical Conductivity) were measured in-situ. Four heavy metals (Cd, Cr, Pb, and Zn) in water and bio-accumulation in the edible parts of the fish were analyzed with flame atomic absorption spectrometry. The mean values of TDS, EC, DO and pH of the lake water were 458.1 mg/L, 905.7 µ s/cm, 7.36 mg/L, and 7.9, respectively. The mean concentrations of Zn, Cr, and Cd in the edible part of fish were also 0.18 mg/kg, ND-0.24 mg/kg, and ND-0.03 mg/kg, respectively. Pb was, however, not identified. The amount of Cr in the examined fish muscle was above the level set by FAO, and the accumulation of the metals showed marked differences between sampling sites (p<0.05). The concentrations of Cd, Pb and were below the maximum permissible limit. The results also indicated that Cr has a high transfer factor value and Zn has the lowest. The carcinogenic hazard ratio values were below the threshold value (<1) for the edible parts of fish. The estimated weekly intake of heavy metals from fish muscles ranked as Cr>Zn>Cd, but the values were lower than the Reference Dose limit for metals. The carcinogenic risk values indicated a low health risk due to the intake of individual metals from fish. Furthermore, the hazard index of the edible part of fish was less than unity. Generally, the water quality is not a risk for the survival and reproduction of fish, and the heavy metal contents in the edible parts of fish exhibited low carcinogenic risk through the food chain.

Keywords: bio-accumulation, cyprinus carpio, hazard index, heavy metals, Lake Koka

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Authors: Sam Weber, Deepak Mishra, Susan Wilde, Elizabeth Kramer

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The frequency and severity of cyanobacteria harmful blooms (CyanoHABs) have been increasing over time, with point and non-point source eutrophication and shifting climate paradigms being blamed as the primary culprits. Excessive nutrients, warm temperatures, quiescent water, and heavy and less regular rainfall create more conducive environments for CyanoHABs. CyanoHABs have the potential to produce a spectrum of toxins that cause gastrointestinal stress, organ failure, and even death in humans and animals. To promote enhanced, proactive CyanoHAB management, risk modeling using geospatial tools can act as predictive mechanisms to supplement current CyanoHAB monitoring, management and mitigation efforts. The risk maps would empower water managers to focus their efforts on high risk water bodies in an attempt to prevent CyanoHABs before they occur, and/or more diligently observe those waterbodies. For this research, exploratory spatial data analysis techniques were used to identify the strongest predicators for CyanoHAB blooms based on remote sensing-derived cyanobacteria cell density values for 771 waterbodies in the Georgia Piedmont and landscape characteristics of their watersheds. In-situ datasets for cyanobacteria cell density, nutrients, temperature, and rainfall patterns are not widely available, so free gridded geospatial datasets were used as proxy variables for assessing CyanoHAB risk. For example, the percent of a watershed that is agriculture was used as a proxy for nutrient loading, and the summer precipitation within a watershed was used as a proxy for water quiescence. Cyanobacteria cell density values were calculated using atmospherically corrected images from the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-2A satellite and multispectral instrument sensor at a 10-meter ground resolution. Seventeen explanatory variables were calculated for each watershed utilizing the multi-petabyte geospatial catalogs available within the Google Earth Engine cloud computing interface. The seventeen variables were then used in a multiple linear regression model, and the strongest predictors of cyanobacteria cell density were selected for the final regression model. The seventeen explanatory variables included land cover composition, winter and summer temperature and precipitation data, topographic derivatives, vegetation index anomalies, and soil characteristics. Watershed maximum summer temperature, percent agriculture, percent forest, percent impervious, and waterbody area emerged as the strongest predictors of cyanobacteria cell density with an adjusted R-squared value of 0.31 and a p-value ~ 0. The final regression equation was used to make a normalized cyanobacteria cell density index, and a Jenks Natural Break classification was used to assign waterbodies designations of low, medium, or high risk. Of the 771 waterbodies, 24.38% were low risk, 37.35% were medium risk, and 38.26% were high risk. This study showed that there are significant relationships between free geospatial datasets representing summer maximum temperatures, nutrient loading associated with land use and land cover, and the area of a waterbody with cyanobacteria cell density. This data analytics approach to CyanoHAB risk assessment corroborated the literature-established environmental triggers for CyanoHABs, and presents a novel approach for CyanoHAB risk mapping in waterbodies across the greater southeastern United States.

Keywords: cyanobacteria, land use/land cover, remote sensing, risk mapping

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Authors: Semachew M. Kassa, Africa M Geremew, Tezera F. Azmatch, Nandyala Darga Kumar

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Frequency ratio (FR) and analytical hierarchy process (AHP) methods are developed based on past landslide failure points to identify the landslide susceptibility mapping because landslides can seriously harm both the environment and society. However, it is still difficult to select the most efficient method and correctly identify the main driving factors for particular regions. In this study, we used fourteen landslide conditioning factors (LCFs) and five soft computing algorithms, including Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Logistic Regression (LR), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Naïve Bayes (NB), to predict the landslide susceptibility at 12.5 m spatial scale. The performance of the RF (F1-score: 0.88, AUC: 0.94), ANN (F1-score: 0.85, AUC: 0.92), and SVM (F1-score: 0.82, AUC: 0.86) methods was significantly better than the LR (F1-score: 0.75, AUC: 0.76) and NB (F1-score: 0.73, AUC: 0.75) method, according to the classification results based on inventory landslide points. The findings also showed that around 35% of the study region was made up of places with high and very high landslide risk (susceptibility greater than 0.5). The very high-risk locations were primarily found in the western and southeastern regions, and all five models showed good agreement and similar geographic distribution patterns in landslide susceptibility. The towns with the highest landslide risk include Amhara Saint Town's western part, the Northern part, and St. Gebreal Church villages, with mean susceptibility values greater than 0.5. However, rainfall, distance to road, and slope were typically among the top leading factors for most villages. The primary contributing factors to landslide vulnerability were slightly varied for the five models. Decision-makers and policy planners can use the information from our study to make informed decisions and establish policies. It also suggests that various places should take different safeguards to reduce or prevent serious damage from landslide events.

Keywords: artificial neural network, logistic regression, landslide susceptibility, naïve Bayes, random forest, support vector machine

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Authors: Dmitry Yu. Korulkin, Raissa A. Muzychkina

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Currently to treat infectious diseases bioactive substances of plant origin having fewer side effects than synthetic medicines and medicines similar to natural components of a human body by the structure and action, become very important. One of the groups of secondary metabolites of the plants - alkaloids can be related the number of the most promising sources of medicines of plant origin. Currently, the structure of more than 7500 compounds has been identified. Analyzing the scope of research in the field of chemistry, pharmacology and technology of alkaloids, we can make a conclusion about that there is no system approach during the research of relation structure-activity on different groups of these substances. It is connected not only with a complex structure of their molecules, but also with insufficient information on the nature of their effect on organs, tissues and other targets in organism. The purpose of this research was to identify pharmacophore groups in the structure of alkaloids of endemic Polygonum L. plants growing in Kazakhstan responsible for their antiviral action. To isolate alkaloids pharmacopoeian methods were used. Antiviral activity of alkaloids of Polygonum L. plants was researched in the Institute of Microbiology and Virology of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Virus-inhibiting properties of compounds were studies in experiments with ortho- and paramyxoviruses on the model of chick-embryos. Anti-viral properties were determined using ‘screening test’ method designed to neutralization of a virus at the amount of 100EID50 with set concentrations of medicines. The difference of virus titer compared to control group was deemed as the criterion of antiviral action. It has been established that Polygonum L. alkaloids has high antiviral effect to influenza and parainfluenza viruses. The analysis of correlation of the structure and antiviral activity of alkaloids allowed identifying the main pharmacophore groups, among which the most important are glycosidation, the presence of carbonyl and hydroxyl groups, molecular weight and molecular size.

Keywords: alkaloids, antiviral, bioactive substances, isolation, pharmacophore groups, Polygonum L.

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Authors: Regan Harper, Song Yang, Douglas Adams

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During the historically unprecedent time of Covid-19 pandemic, we survey college students with social issue generators to measure their core discussion groups. For the total 191 students, we elicit 847 conversation partners (alters) with our five social issue generators such as school closing, facemasks, collegiate sports, race and policing, and social inequality, producing an average of 4.43 alters per respondent. The core discussion groups of our sample are very gender balanced, with female alters slightly outnumbering male alters. However, the core discussion groups are racially homogenous, consisting of mostly white students (around or above 80 percent). Explanatory analyses reveal that gender and race of respondents significantly impact the size, gender composition, and racial composition of their core discussion networks. We discuss those major findings and implications of future studies in our conclusion section.

Keywords: core discussion groups, social issue generators, ego-centric network, Covid-19 pandemic

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Authors: Beenish Urooj, Ubaid Ullah, Sidra Riasat

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National Testing Service-Pakistan (NTS) is an agency in Pakistan that conducts student success appraisal examinations. In this research paper, we must present a security model for the NTS organization. The security model will depict certain security countermeasures for a better defense against certain types of breaches and system malware. We will provide a security roadmap, which will help the company to execute its further goals to maintain security standards and policies. We also covered multiple aspects in securing the environment of the organization. We introduced the processes, architecture, data classification, auditing approaches, survey responses, data handling, and also training and awareness of risk for the company. The primary contribution is the Risk Survey, based on the maturity model meant to assess and examine employee training and knowledge of risks in the company's activities.

Keywords: NTS, risk assessment, threat factors, security, services

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Authors: Luna Degife, Desalegn Belay, Yoseph Worku, Tigist Tesfaye, Assefa Tufa, Abyot Bekele, Zegeye Hailemariam, Abay Hagos

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Half of the world’s population is at risk of Dengue Fever (DF), a highly under-recognized and underreported mosquito-borne viral disease with high prevalence in the tropical and subtropical regions. Globally, an estimated 50 to 200 million cases and 20, 000 DF deaths occur annually as per the world health organization report. In Ethiopia, the first outbreak occurred in 2013 in Diredawa administration city. Afterward, three outbreaks have been reported from the eastern part of the country. We received a report of the fifth DF outbreak for Ethiopia and the second for Diredawa city on October 4, 2015. We conducted the investigation to confirm the outbreak, identify the risk factors for the repeatedly occurrence of the disease and implement control measures. We conducted un- matched case-control study and defined a suspected DF case as any person with fever of 2-7 days and 2 or more of the following: a headache, arthralgia, myalgia, rash, or bleeding from any part of the body. Controls were residents of Diredawa city without DF symptoms. We interviewed 70 Cases and 140 controls from all health facilities in Diredawa city from October 7 to 15; 2015. Epi Info version 7.1.5.0 was used to analyze the data and multivariable logistic regression was conducted to assess risk factors for DF. Sixty-nine blood samples were collected for Laboratory confirmation.The mean age for cases was 23.7±9.5 standard deviation (SD) and for controls 31.2±13 SD. Close contact with DF patient (Adjusted odds ratio (AOR)=5.36, 95% confidence interval(CI): 2.75-10.44), nonuse of long-lasting insecticidal nets (AOR=2.74, 95% CI: 1.06-7.08) and availability of stagnant water in the village (AOR=3.61, 95% CI:1.31-9.93) were independent risk factors associated with higher rates of the disease. Forty-two samples were tested positive. Endemicity of DF is becoming a concern for Diredawa city after the first outbreak. Therefore, effective vector control activities need to be part of long-term preventive measures.

Keywords: dengue fever, Diredawa, outbreak, risk factors, second

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Authors: Bright Annang Baah

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Evaluating public perceptions of climate change risk and the elements that impact them has been shown to be critical in developing support for climate change action. Previous research has found a variety of elements, including the experience of extreme weather events, that impact public perceptions and worries about climate change. However, little is known about the public's perception of climate change risks and the variables that influence them in developing countries. Using a household survey, this study attempted to evaluate respondents' risk perceptions of climate change, as well as the impact of flooding experience on such beliefs. The findings demonstrate that flood victims have a greater risk perception and are more concerned about climate change than non-victims. Concerns regarding the effects of climate change, on the other hand, were found to be the lowest when compared to other pressing challenges confronting the country. This study's findings contribute to the understanding of climate change risk perception and the impact of extreme weather events from the perspective of a developing nation.

Keywords: climate change risk perception, harsh weather, perceived concern, Accra, Ghana

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Authors: Vladyslav Povoroznyuk, Larysa Martynyuk, Iryna Syzonenko, Liliya Martynyuk

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Osteoporosis is one of the important problems in postmenopausal women due to an increased risk of sudden and unexpected fractures. This study is aimed to determine the connection between bone mineral density (BMD) and trabecular bone score (TBS) in Ukrainian women suffering from metabolic syndrome. Participating in the study, 566 menopausal women aged 50-79 year-old were examined and divided into two groups: Group A included 336 women with no obesity (BMI ≤ 29.9 kg/m²), and Group B – 230 women with metabolic syndrome (diagnosis according to IDF criteria, 2005). Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry was used for measuring of lumbar spine (L1-L4), femoral neck, total body and forearm BMD and bone quality indexes (last according to Med-Imaps installation). Data were analyzed using Statistical Package 6.0. A significant increase of lumbar spine (L1-L4), femoral neck, total body and ultradistal radius BMD was found in women with metabolic syndrome compared to those without obesity (p < 0.001) both in their totality and in groups of 50-59 years, 60-69 years, and 70-79 years. TBS was significantly higher in non-obese women compared to metabolic syndrome patients of 50-59 years and in the general sample (p < 0.05). Analysis showed significant positive correlation between body mass index (BMI) and BMD at all levels. Significant negative correlation between BMI and TBS (L1-L4) was established. Despite the fact that BMD indexes were significantly higher in women with metabolic syndrome, the frequency of vertebral and non-vertebral fractures did not differ significantly in the groups of patients.

Keywords: bone mineral density, trabecular bone score, metabolic syndrome, fracture

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Authors: Israel Ropo Orimoloye, Johanes A. Belle, Olusola Adeyemi, Olusola O. Ololade

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With more than 100,000 orbits during the past 20 years, Terra has significantly improved our knowledge of the Earth's climate and its implications on societies and ecosystems of human activity and natural disasters, including drought events. With Terra instrument's performance and the free distribution of its products, this study utilised Terra MOD13Q1 satellite data to assess drought disaster events and its spatiotemporal patterns over the Free State Province of South Africa between 2001 and 2019 for summer, autumn, winter, and spring seasons. The study also used high-resolution downscaled climate change projections under three representative concentration pathways (RCP). Three future periods comprising the short (the 2030s), medium (2040s), and long term (2050s) compared to the current period are analysed to understand the potential magnitude of projected climate change-related drought. The study revealed that the year 2001 and 2016 witnessed extreme drought conditions where the drought index is between 0 and 20% across the entire province during summer, while the year 2003, 2004, 2007, and 2015 observed severe drought conditions across the region with variation from one part to the another. The result shows that from -24.5 to -25.5 latitude, the area witnessed a decrease in precipitation (80 to 120mm) across the time slice and an increase in the latitude -26° to -28° S for summer seasons, which is more prominent in the year 2041 to 2050. This study emphasizes the strong spatio-environmental impacts within the province and highlights the associated factors that characterise high drought stress risk, especially on the environment and ecosystems. This study contributes to a disaster risk framework to identify areas for specific research and adaptation activities on drought disaster risk and for environmental planning in the study area, which is characterised by both rural and urban contexts, to address climate change-related drought impacts.

Keywords: remote sensing, drought disaster, climate scenario, assessment

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Authors: Salma Aboussalam, Karima Khalil, Khalid Elkalay

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In order to understand the structure, functioning, and current state of the Moroccan Mediterranean Sea ecosystem, an Ecopath mass balance model was applied. The model was based on 31 functional groups, which included 21 fish species, 7 invertebrates, 2 primary producers, and one detritus group. The trophic interactions between these groups were analyzed, and the system's average trophic transfer efficiency was found to be 23%. The total primary production and total respiration were calculated to be greater than 1, indicating that the system produces more energy than it respires. The ecosystem was found to have a high level of respiration and consumption flows, and indicators of stability and development showed low values for the Finn cycle index (13.97), system omnivory index (0.18), and average Finn path length (3.09), indicating that the ecosystem is disturbed and has a linear rather than web-like trophic structure. Keystone species were identified using the keystone index and mixed trophic impact analysis, with other demersal invertebrates, zooplankton, and cephalopods found to have a significant impact on other groups.

Keywords: ecopath, food web, trophic flux, moroccan mediterranean sea

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Authors: Allaeddine Athmani, Abdelhacine Gouasmia, Tiago Ferreira, Romeu Vicente

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Seismic vulnerability assessment of masonry buildings is a fundamental issue even for moderate to low seismic hazard regions. This fact is even more important when dealing with old structures such as those located in Annaba city (Algeria), which the majority of dates back to the French colonial era from 1830. This category of buildings is in high risk due to their highly degradation state, heterogeneous materials and intrusive modifications to structural and non-structural elements. Furthermore, they are usually shelter a dense population, which is exposed to such risk. In order to undertake a suitable seismic risk mitigation strategies and reinforcement process for such structures, it is essential to estimate their seismic resistance capacity at a large scale. In this sense, two seismic vulnerability index methods and damage estimation have been adapted and applied to a pilot-scale building area located in the moderate seismic hazard region of Annaba city: The first one based on the EMS-98 building typologies, and the second one derived from the Italian GNDT approach. To perform this task, the authors took the advantage of an existing data survey previously performed for other purposes. The results obtained from the application of the two methods were integrated and compared using a geographic information system tool (GIS), with the ultimate goal of supporting the city council of Annaba for the implementation of risk mitigation and emergency planning strategies.

Keywords: Annaba city, EMS98 concept, GNDT method, old city center, seismic vulnerability index, unreinforced masonry buildings

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Authors: M. V. Shivaani, P. K. Jain, Surendra S. Yadav

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Risk management has been gaining extensive focus from international organizations like Committee of Sponsoring Organizations and Financial Stability Board, and, the foundation of such an effective and efficient risk management system lies in a strong risk governance structure. In view of this, an attempt (perhaps a first of its kind) has been made to develop a risk governance index, which could be used as proxy for quality of risk governance structures. The index (normative framework) is based on eleven variables, namely, size of board, board diversity in terms of gender, proportion of executive directors, executive/non-executive status of chairperson, proportion of independent directors, CEO duality, chief risk officer (CRO), risk management committee, mandatory committees, voluntary committees and existence/non-existence of whistle blower policy. These variables are scored on a scale of 1 to 5 with the exception of the variables, namely, status of chairperson and CEO duality (which have been scored on a dichotomous scale with the score of 3 or 5). In case there is a legal/statutory requirement in respect of above-mentioned variables and there is a non-compliance with such requirement a score of one has been envisaged. Though there is no legal requirement, for the larger part of study, in context of CRO, risk management committee and whistle blower policy, still a score of 1 has been assigned in the event of their non-existence. Recognizing the importance of these variables in context of risk governance structure and the fact that the study basically focuses on risk governance, the absence of these variables has been equated to non-compliance with a legal/statutory requirement. Therefore, based on this the minimum score is 15 and the maximum possible is 55. In addition, an attempt has been made to explore the determinants of this index. For this purpose, the sample consists of non-financial companies (429) that constitute S&P CNX500 index. The study covers a 10 years period from April 1, 2005 to March 31, 2015. Given the panel nature of data, Hausman test was applied, and it suggested that fixed effects regression would be appropriate. The results indicate that age and size of firms have significant positive impact on its risk governance structures. Further, post-recession period (2009-2015) has witnessed significant improvement in quality of governance structures. In contrast, profitability (positive relationship), leverage (negative relationship) and growth (negative relationship) do not have significant impact on quality of risk governance structures. The value of rho indicates that about 77.74% variation in risk governance structures is due to firm specific factors. Given the fact that each firm is unique in terms of its risk exposure, risk culture, risk appetite, and risk tolerance levels, it appears reasonable to assume that the specific conditions and circumstances that a company is beset with, could be the biggest determinants of its risk governance structures. Given the recommendations put forth in the paper (particularly for regulators and companies), the study is expected to be of immense utility in an important yet neglected aspect of risk management.

Keywords: corporate governance, ERM, risk governance, risk management

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Authors: Chang-Fa Liu, Yi-Ting Wang, Yuan Liu, Hai-Feng Wei, Lei Fang, Jin Li

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Heavy metals in sediments can cause adverse ecological effects while it exceeds a given criteria. The present study investigated sediment environmental quality, pollutant enrichment, ecological risk, and source identification for copper, cadmium, lead, zinc, mercury, and arsenic in the sediments collected from tidal flat marsh of Shuangtai estuary, China. The arithmetic mean integrated pollution index, geometric mean integrated pollution index, fuzzy integrated pollution index, and principal component score were used to characterize sediment environmental quality; fuzzy similarity and geo-accumulation Index were used to evaluate pollutant enrichment; correlation matrix, principal component analysis, and cluster analysis were used to identify source of pollution; environmental risk index and potential ecological risk index were used to assess ecological risk. The environmental qualities of sediment are classified to very low degree of contamination or low contamination. The similar order to element background of soil in the Liaohe plain is region of Sanjiaozhou, Honghaitan, Sandaogou, Xiaohe by pollutant enrichment analysis. The source identification indicates that correlations are significantly among metals except between copper and cadmium. Cadmium, lead, zinc, mercury, and arsenic will be clustered in the same clustering as the first principal component. Copper will be clustered as second principal component. The environmental risk assessment level will be scaled to no risk in the studied area. The order of potential ecological risk is As > Cd > Hg > Cu > Pb > Zn.

Keywords: ecological risk assessment, heavy metals, sediment, marsh, Shuangtai estuary

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Authors: Shaine Mehta, Neelam Parmar, Patrick White, Mark Ashworth

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Patients with a history of substance have a high prevalence of comorbidities, including asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Mortality rates are higher than that of the general population and the link to respiratory disease is reported. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) support opioid substitution therapy as an effective means for harm reduction. However, whilst a high proportion of patients receiving opioid substitution therapy are smokers, to the author’s best knowledge there have been no studies of respiratory disease and smoking intensity in these patients. A cross sectional prevalence study was conducted using an anonymised patient-level database in primary care, Lambeth DataNet (LDN). We included patients aged 18 years and over who had records of ever having been prescribed methadone in primary care. Patients under 18 years old or prescribed buprenorphine (because of uncertainty about the prescribing indication) were excluded. Demographic, smoking, alcohol and asthma and COPD coding data were extracted. Differences between methadone and non-methadone users were explored with multivariable analysis. LDN contained data on 321, 395 patients ≥ 18 years; 676 (0.16%) had a record of methadone prescription. Patients prescribed methadone were more likely to be male (70.7% vs. 50.4%), older (48.9yrs vs. 41.5yrs) and less likely to be from an ethnic minority group (South Asian 2.1% vs. 7.8%; Black African 8.9% vs. 21.4%). Almost all those prescribed methadone were smokers or ex-smokers (97.3% vs. 40.9%); more were non-alcohol drinkers (41.3% vs. 24.3%). We found a high prevalence of COPD (12.4% vs 1.4%) and asthma (14.2% vs 4.4%). Smoking intensity data shows a high prevalence of ≥ 20 cigarettes per day (21.5% vs. 13.1%). Risk of COPD, adjusted for age, gender, ethnicity and deprivation, was raised in smokers: odds ratio 14.81 (95%CI 11.26, 19.47), and in the methadone group: OR 7.51 (95%CI: 5.78, 9.77). Furthermore, after adjustment for smoking intensity (number of cigarettes/day), the risk was raised in methadone group: OR 4.77 (95%CI: 3.13, 7.28). High burden of respiratory disease compounded by the high rates of smoking is a public health concern. This supports an integrated approach to health in patients treated for opiate dependence, with access to smoking cessation support. Further work may evaluate the current structure and commissioning of substance misuse services, including smoking cessation. Regression modelling highlights that methadone as a ‘risk factor’ was independently associated with COPD prevalence, even after adjustment for smoking intensity. This merits further exploration, as the association may be related to unexplored aspects of smoking (such as the number of years smoked) or may be related to other related exposures, such as smoking heroin or crack cocaine.

Keywords: methadone, respiratory disease, smoking cessation, substance misuse

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Authors: Srikantan L. Jayasri, James Gan

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The changes in Singapore’s land use, natural preference of long-tailed macaques (Macaca fascicularis) to live in forest edges and their adaptability has led to interface between humans and macaques. Studies have shown that two-third of human-macaque interactions in Singapore were related to human food. We aimed to assess differences among macaques groups in their dependence on human food and interaction with humans as indicators of the level of interface. Field observations using instantaneous scan sampling and all occurrence ad-lib sampling were carried out for 23 macaque groups over 28 days recording 71.5 hours of observations. Data on macaque behaviour, demography, frequency, and nature of human-macaque interactions were collected. None of the groups were found to completely rely on human food source. Of the 23 groups, 40% of them were directly or indirectly provisioned by humans. One-third of the groups observed engaged in some form of interactions with the humans. Three groups that were directly fed by humans contributed to 83% of the total human-macaque interactions observed during the study. Our study indicated that interactions between humans and macaques exist in specific groups and in those fed by humans regularly. Although feeding monkeys is illegal in Singapore, such incidents seem to persist in specific locations. We emphasize the importance of group and location-specific assessment of the existing human-wildlife interactions. Conflict management strategies developed should be location specific to address the cause of interactions.

Keywords: primates, Southeast Asia, wildlife management, Singapore

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Authors: Philip Feig, Klaus Gschwendtner, Julian Schatz, Frank Diermeyer

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Projects of accident research analysis are mostly focused on accidents involving personal damage. Property damage only has a high frequency of occurrence combined with high economic impact. This paper describes main influencing parameters for the extent of damage and presents a repair cost model. For a prospective evaluation method of the monetary effect of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), it is necessary to be aware of and quantify all influencing parameters. Furthermore, this method allows the evaluation of vehicle concepts in combination with an ADAS at an early point in time of the product development process. In combination with a property damage database and the introduced repair cost model relevant test scenarios for specific vehicle configurations and their individual property damage risk may be determined. Currently, equipment rates of ADAS are low and a purchase incentive for customers would be beneficial. The next ADAS generation will prevent property damage to a large extent or at least reduce damage severity. Both effects may be a purchasing incentive for the customer and furthermore contribute to increased traffic safety.

Keywords: accident research, accident scenarios, ADAS, effectiveness, property damage analysis

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Authors: Vanessa Bennemann, Gabriela Laste, Márcia Inês Goettert

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The gestational period is a phase in which the pregnant woman undergoes constant physiological and hormonal changes, which are part of the woman’s biological cycle, the development of the fetus, childbirth, and lactation. These are factors of response to the immunological adaptation of the human reproductive process that is directly related to the pregnancy’s well-being and development. Although most pregnancies occur without complications, about 15% of pregnant women will develop potentially fatal complications, implying maternal and fetal risk. Therefore, requiring specialized care for high-risk pregnant women (HRPW) with obstetric interventions for the survival of the mother and/or fetus. Among the risk factors that characterize HRPW are the women's age, gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), autoimmune diseases, infectious diseases such as syphilis and HIV, hypertension (SAH), preeclampsia, eclampsia, HELLP syndrome, uterine contraction abnormalities, and premature placental detachment (PPD), thyroid disorders, among others. Thus, pregnancy has an impact on the thyroid gland causing changes in the functioning of the mother's thyroid gland, altering the thyroid hormone (TH) profiles and production as pregnancy progresses. Considering, throughout the gestational period, the interpretation of the results of the tests to evaluate the thyroid functioning depends on the stage in which the pregnancy is. Thyroid disorders are directly related to adverse obstetric outcomes and in child development. Therefore, the adequate release of TH is important for a pregnancy without complications and optimal fetal growth and development. Objective: Investigate the physiological effects caused by thyroid disorders in the gestational period. Methods: A search for articles indexed in PubMed, Scielo, and MDPI databases, was performed using the term “AND”, with the descriptors: Pregnancy, Thyroid. With several combinations that included: Melatonin, Thyroidopathy, Inflammatory processes, Cytokines, Anti-inflammatory, Antioxidant, High-risk pregnancy. Subsequently, the screening was performed through the analysis of titles and/or abstracts. The criteria were: including clinical studies in general, randomized or not, in the period of 10 years prior to the research, in the English literature; excluded: experimental studies, case reports, research in the development phase. Results: In the preliminary results, a total of studies (n=183) were found, (n=57) excluded, such as studies of cancer, diabetes, obesity, and skin diseases. Conclusion: To date, it has been identified that thyroid diseases can impair the fetus’s brain development. Further research is suggested on this matter to identify new substances that may have a potential therapeutic effect to aid the gestational period with thyroid diseases.

Keywords: pregnancy, thyroid, melatonin, high-risk pregnancy

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Authors: Mónika Ditta Tóth, Ádám Fritz, Balázs Hankó, György Purebl

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Communication training about depression and suicide prevention for pharmacists – A Hungarian pilot study Mónika Ditta Tóth1, Ádám Fritz2, Balázs Hankó2, György Purebl1 1: Semmelweis University, Institute of Behavioural Sciences 2: Semmelweis University, University Pharmacy Department of Pharmacy Administration Background: Suicide rates in Hungary have been one of the highest in the European Union. Depression is one of the main risk factors for suicide and recognizing and treating depression is an effective way to prevent suicidal behaviour. In their daily practice, pharmacists meet patients with high risk of mental health problems. Therefore they have a key role in the prevention of depression and suicide. Aim: The main aim of this study is to raise pharmacists’ awareness about depression and suicide to enable better recognation of verbal and non-verbal signs of these deseases. Another important objective is to reduce their stigma about depression and increase their confidence in communication with depressed and/or suicidal patients. Methods: A 3-hour communication workshop has been delivered in this pilot study about the reasons, trigger factors, verbal and non-verbal signs of depression and suicide. The training includes communication techniques which have been developed to patients needs, as well as role-playing scenarios. Depression Stigma and Morris Confidence Scales were applied before, after and 6 weeks following the training. The results of the training group are then compared with two of the following pharmacist groups: 1. written material only (N=15), 2. no material (N=15). Results: One-way ANOVA revealed significant differences in the training group regarding the level of confidence in treating and communicating with patients with depression and/or suicide following the training, and after 6 weeks (F(2, 24)= 7,135, p=,004; baseline: 20,37, after training: 30,00, follow up: 27,66). After the 3-hour workshop the personal stigma about depression decreased (baselin: 19,75 after training: 17,00, p=0,075) in the training group (N=9), whilst the perceived stigma did not change (before: 33.54, after: 33,44, p=NS). Trainees assessed the workshop as ‘useful’ and ‘gap filling’. No significant differences was found in the group of pharmacisists who got written material only. Conclusions: Despite the high rates of depression and suicide in Hungary, pharmacists do not receive lectures or seminars about mental health during their university studies. Such half-day workshops could fill this gap and give practical help to recognize and communicate with depressed and/or suicidal patients in a more effective way. This way pharmacists, as community gate-keepers, could contribute to a more effective suicide prevention program in Hungary.

Keywords: communication training, pharmacists, depression, suicide

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Authors: Anna Rinaldi, Pierfrancesco Dellino

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COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy can be observed at different rates in different countries. In June 2021, 1,068 people were surveyed in France and Italy to inquire about individual potential acceptance, focusing on time preferences in a risk-return framework: having the vaccination today, in a month, and in 3 months; perceived risks of vaccination and COVID-19; and expected benefit of the vaccine. A randomized controlled trial was conducted to understand how everyday stimuli like fact-based news about vaccines impact an audience's acceptance of vaccination. The main experiment involved two groups of participants and two different articles about vaccine-related thrombosis taken from two Italian newspapers. One article used a more abstract description and language, and the other used a more anecdotal description and concrete language; each group read only one of these articles. Two other groups were assigned categorization tasks; one was asked to complete a concrete categorization task, and the other an abstract categorization task. Individual preferences for vaccination were found to be variable and unstable over time, and individual choices of accepting, refusing, or delaying could be affected by the way news is written. In order to understand these dynamic preferences, the present work proposes a new model based on seven categories of human behaviors that were validated by a neural network. A treatment effect was observed: participants who read the articles shifted to vaccine hesitancy categories more than participants assigned to other treatments and control. Furthermore, there was a significant gender effect, showing that the type of language leading to a lower hesitancy rate for men is correlated with a higher hesitancy rate for women and vice versa. This outcome should be taken into consideration for an appropriate gender-based communication campaign aimed at achieving herd immunity. The trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05582564 (17/10/2022).

Keywords: vaccine hesitancy, risk elicitation, neural network, covid19

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Authors: Alicja Reuben, Amira Annabi

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In this paper, we explore the relationship between the selection of valuation techniques by investment banks and the banks’ risk perceptions and performance in the context of the theory of performativity. We use inferential statistics to study these relationships by building a unique dataset based on the disclosure of 12 investment banks’ 2012-2015 annual financial statements. Moreover, we create two constructs, namely intensity of use and risk perception. We measure the intensity of use as a frequency metric of how often a particular bank adopts valuation techniques for a particular asset or liability. We measure risk perception based on disclosed ranges of values for unobservable inputs. Our results are twofold: we find a significant negative correlation between (1) intensity of use and investment bank performance and (2) intensity of use and risk perception. These results indicate that a performative process takes place, and the valuation techniques are enacting their environment.

Keywords: language, linguistics, performativity, financial techniques

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