Search results for: demand estimation

Authors: Phibankhamti Ryngnga

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It is a common phenomenon worldwide that farmland has been gradually converted for urban development particularly in the 21st century keeping in mind the population increase on the other hand. Since food demand and supply are not in equilibrium in urban set up, therefore, there is a need for alternative to feed the hungry urban settlers worldwide. In this regard, urban rooftop farming is the only way out to meet the growing demand for food production with the extra benefits of making our urban areas and cities greener and when the populace is exposed to nature and vegetation, it in turn provides an array of psychological benefits, from decreased anxiety to increased productivity. Bare roofs in cities absorb and then radiate heat — a phenomenon known as the “heat island effect. This increases energy usage and contributes to the poor air quality that often plagues big cities. But Urban rooftop farming do provide many solutions to help cool buildings, ultimately reducing carbon emissions, and by growing food in the communities they serve, rooftop farmers lessen the environmental impact of food transportation. This paper will emphasise the significance of Urban roof farming in the present century which in itself a multi-solution to various city problems.

Keywords: urban, roof farming, smart solution, sustainability

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Authors: Moiz Masood Syed, Seong-Jun Hong, Geun-Hie Rim, Kyung-Ae Cho, Hyoung-Suk Kim

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In the near future, energy storage will play a vital role to enhance the present changing technology. Energy storage with power generation becomes necessary when renewable energy sources are connected to the grid which consequently adjoins to the total energy in the system since utilities require more power when peak demand occurs. This paper describes the operational function of a 3 kW grid-connected residential Energy Storage System (ESS) which is connected with Photovoltaic (PV) at its input side. The system can perform bidirectional functions of charging from the grid and discharging to the grid when power demand becomes high and low respectively. It consists of PV module, Power Conditioning System (PCS) containing a bidirectional DC/DC Converter and bidirectional DC/AC inverter and a Lithium-ion battery pack. ESS Configuration, specifications, and control are described. The bidirectional DC/DC converter tracks the maximum power point (MPPT) and maintains the stability of PV array in case of power deficiency to fulfill the load requirements. The bidirectional DC/AC inverter has good voltage regulation properties like low total harmonic distortion (THD), low electromagnetic interference (EMI), faster response and anti-islanding characteristics. Experimental results satisfy the effectiveness of the proposed system.

Keywords: energy storage system, photovoltaic, DC/DC converter, DC/AC inverter

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Authors: Ana Caroline Ibrahim Lino, Denise Bomtempo Birche de Carvalho

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The background of this research is the international process of control and monitoring of illicit psychoactive substances that has commenced in the early 20th century. This process was intensified with the UN Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs of 1961 and had its culmination in the 1970s with the "War on drugs", a doctrine undertaken by the United States of America. Since then, the phenomenon of drug prohibition has been pushing debates around alternatives of public policies to confront their consequences at a global level and in the specific context of Latin America. Previous research has answered the following key questions: a) With what characteristics and models has the international illicit drug control system consolidated in Latin America with the creation of the Organization of American States (OAS) and the Inter-American Drug Abuse Control Commission (CICAD)? b) What drug policies and programs were determined as guidelines for the member states by the OAS and CICAD? The present paper mainly addresses the analysis of the drug strategies developed by the OAS/CICAD for the Americas from 2004 to 2016. The primary sources have been extracted from the OAS/CICAD documents and reports, listed on the Internet sites of these organizations. Secondary sources refer to bibliographic research on the subject with the following descriptors: illicit drugs, public policies, international organizations, OAS, CICAD, and reducing the demand and supply of illicit drugs. The "content analysis" technique was used to organize the collected material and to choose the axes of analysis. The results show that the policies, strategies, and action plans for Latin America had been focused on anti-drug actions since the creation of the Commission until 2010. The discourses and policies to reduce drug demand and supply were of great importance for solving the problem. However, the real focus was on eliminating the substances by controlling the production, marketing, and distribution of illicit drugs. Little attention was given to the users and their families. The research is of great relevance to the Social Work. The guidelines and parameters of the Social Worker's profession are in line with the need for social, ethical, and political strengthening of any dimension that guarantees the rights of users of psychoactive substances. In addition, it contributed to the understanding of the political, economic, social, and cultural factors that structure the prohibitionism, whose matrix anchors the deprivation of rights and violence.

Keywords: illicit drug policies, international organizations, latin America, prohibitionism, reduce the demand and supply of illicit drugs

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Authors: Emmanuel Adu-Ofori, Richard Amfo-Otu, Isaac O. A. Hodgson

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The study was conducted to determine the treatment performance of waste stabilization ponds in Akosombo. A total of 15 samples were taken for four consecutive months from the inlet, facultative pond and outlet of maturation pond. The samples were preserved and transported to Water Research Institute for laboratory analysis. The wastewater quality parameters analysed to assess the treatment performance were total suspended solids (TSS), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD), ammonia and phosphate. The results of the laboratory analysis showed that the ponds achieved TSS, BOD and COD removals of about 30, 82 and 75 per cent respectively. Statistically, the BOD (t = 10.27, p = 6.68 x 10-6) and COD (t = 4.23, p = 0.0029) of the raw sewage were significantly different from the total effluent at 95% confidence interval. The ammonia and phosphate removal was as high as 92% and 84% respectively. The quality parameters analysed for the final effluent from the Waste Stabilisation Pond was within the EPA guideline values. The general treatment performances were very good with respect to the parameters studied and does not pose threat to the receiving water body. A further study to examine the bacteriological treatment performance was recommended.

Keywords: waste stabilization pond, wast water, treatment performance, nutrient, Ghana

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Authors: Ainoa Guinart, Maria Korpidou, Daniel Doellerer, Cornelia Palivan, Ben L. Feringa

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Stimuli responsive systems arise from the need to meet unsolved needs of current molecular drugs. Our study presents the design of a delivery system with high spatiotemporal control and tuneable release profiles. We study the incorporation of a hydrophobic synthetic molecular motor into PDMS-b-PMOXA block copolymer vesicles to create a self-assembled system. We prove their successful incorporation and selective activation by low powered visible light (λ 430 nm, 6.9 mW). We trigger the release of a fluorescent dye with high release efficiencies over sequential cycles (up to 75%) with the ability to turn on and off the release behaviour on demand by light irradiation. Low concentrations of photo-responsive units are proven to trigger release down to 1 mol% of molecular motor. Finally, we test our system in relevant physiological conditions using a lung cancer cell line and the encapsulation of an approved drug. Similar levels of cell viability are observed compared to the free-given drugshowing the potential of our platform to deliver functional drugs on demand with the same efficiency and lower toxicity.

Keywords: molecular motor, polymer, drug delivery, light-responsive, cancer, selfassembly

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Authors: Nasir Ashraf, Sajid Rahid Ahmad, Adeel Ahmad

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Pakistan is a major tea consumer country and ranked as the third largest importer of tea worldwide. Out of all beverage consumed in Pakistan, tea is the one with most demand for which tea import is inevitable. Being an agrarian country, Pakistan should cultivate its own tea and save the millions of dollars cost from tea import. So the need is to identify the most suitable areas with favorable weather condition and suitable soils where tea can be planted. This research is conducted over District Mansehra and District Abbottabad in Khyber Pakhtoonkhwah Province of Pakistan where the most favorable conditions for tea cultivation already exist and National Tea Research Institute has done successful experiments to cultivate high quality tea. High tech approach is adopted to meet the objectives of this research by using the remotely sensed data i.e. Aster DEM, Landsat8 Imagery. The Remote Sensing data was processed in Erdas Imagine, Envi and further analyzed in ESRI ArcGIS spatial analyst for final results and representation of result data in map layouts. Integration of remote sensing data with GIS provided the perfect suitability analysis. The results showed that out of all study area, 13.4% area is highly suitable while 33.44% area is suitable for tea plantation. The result of this research is an impressive GIS based outcome and structured format of data for the agriculture planners and Tea growers. Identification of suitable tea growing areas by using remotely sensed data and GIS techniques is a pressing need for the country. Analysis of this research lets the planners to address variety of action plans in an economical and scientific manner which can lead tea production in Pakistan to meet demand. This geomatics based model and approach may be used to identify more areas for tea cultivation to meet our demand which we can reduce by planting our own tea, and our country can be independent in tea production.

Keywords: agrarian country, GIS, geoinformatics, suitability analysis, remote sensing

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Authors: Georgiana Onicescu, Yuqian Shen

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Due to the complex nature of geo-referenced data, multicollinearity of the risk factors in public health spatial studies is a commonly encountered issue, which leads to low parameter estimation accuracy because it inflates the variance in the regression analysis. To address this issue, we proposed a two-stage variable selection method by extending the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) to the Bayesian spatial setting, investigating the impact of risk factors to health outcomes. Specifically, in stage I, we performed the variable selection using Bayesian Lasso and several other variable selection approaches. Then, in stage II, we performed the model selection with only the selected variables from stage I and compared again the methods. To evaluate the performance of the two-stage variable selection methods, we conducted a simulation study with different distributions for the risk factors, using geo-referenced count data as the outcome and Michigan as the research region. We considered the cases when all candidate risk factors are independently normally distributed, or follow a multivariate normal distribution with different correlation levels. Two other Bayesian variable selection methods, Binary indicator, and the combination of Binary indicator and Lasso were considered and compared as alternative methods. The simulation results indicated that the proposed two-stage Bayesian Lasso variable selection method has the best performance for both independent and dependent cases considered. When compared with the one-stage approach, and the other two alternative methods, the two-stage Bayesian Lasso approach provides the highest estimation accuracy in all scenarios considered.

Keywords: Lasso, Bayesian analysis, spatial analysis, variable selection

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Authors: Ece Cigdem Mutlu, Burak Alakent

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Maintaining the quality of manufactured products at a desired level depends on the stability of process dispersion and location parameters and detection of perturbations in these parameters as promptly as possible. Shewhart control chart is the most widely used technique in statistical process monitoring to monitor the quality of products and control process mean and variability. In the application of Xbar control charts, sample standard deviation and sample mean are known to be the most efficient conventional estimators in determining process dispersion and location parameters, respectively, based on the assumption of independent and normally distributed datasets. On the other hand, there is no guarantee that the real-world data would be normally distributed. In the cases of estimated process parameters from Phase I data clouded with outliers, efficiency of traditional estimators is significantly reduced, and performance of Xbar charts are undesirably low, e.g. occasional outliers in the rational subgroups in Phase I data set may considerably affect the sample mean and standard deviation, resulting a serious delay in detection of inferior products in Phase II. For more efficient application of control charts, it is required to use robust estimators against contaminations, which may exist in Phase I. In the current study, we present a simple approach to construct robust Xbar control charts using average distance to the median, Qn-estimator of scale, M-estimator of scale with logistic psi-function in the estimation of process dispersion parameter, and Harrell-Davis qth quantile estimator, Hodge-Lehmann estimator and M-estimator of location with Huber psi-function and logistic psi-function in the estimation of process location parameter. Phase I efficiency of proposed estimators and Phase II performance of Xbar charts constructed from these estimators are compared with the conventional mean and standard deviation statistics both under normality and against diffuse-localized and symmetric-asymmetric contaminations using 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations on MATLAB. Consequently, it is found that robust estimators yield parameter estimates with higher efficiency against all types of contaminations, and Xbar charts constructed using robust estimators have higher power in detecting disturbances, compared to conventional methods. Additionally, utilizing individuals charts to screen outlier subgroups and employing different combination of dispersion and location estimators on subgroups and individual observations are found to improve the performance of Xbar charts.

Keywords: average run length, M-estimators, quality control, robust estimators

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Authors: Patikineti Sreenivasulu, K. srinivasa Rao, A. Vinaya Babu

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The demand for portability, performance and high functional integration density of digital devices leads to the scaling of complementary metal oxide semiconductor (CMOS) devices inevitable. The increase in power consumption, coupled with the increasing demand for portable/hand-held electronics, has made power consumption a dominant concern in the design of VLSI circuits today. MTCMOS technology provides low leakage and high performance operation by utilizing high speed, low Vt (LVT) transistors for logic cells and low leakage, high Vt (HVT) devices as sleep transistors. Sleep transistors disconnect logic cells from the supply and/or ground to reduce the leakage in the sleep mode. In this technology, energy consumption while doing the mode transition and minimum time required to turn ON the circuit upon receiving the wake up signal are issues to be considered because these can adversely impact the performance of VLSI circuit. In this paper we are introducing an enhancing method of MTCMOS technology to optimize the power in MTCMOS sequential circuits.

Keywords: power consumption, ultra-low power, leakage, sub threshold, MTCMOS

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Authors: Siti Indati Mustapa, Hussain Ali Bekhet

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Transportation sector represents more than 40% of total energy consumption in Malaysia. This sector is a major user of fossils based fuels, and it is increasingly being highlighted as the sector which contributes least to CO2 emission reduction targets. Considering this fact, this paper attempts to investigate the problem of reducing CO2 emission using linear programming approach. An optimization model which is used to investigate the optimal level of CO2 emission reduction in the road transport sector is presented. In this paper, scenarios have been used to demonstrate the emission reduction model: (1) utilising alternative fuel scenario, (2) improving fuel efficiency scenario, (3) removing fuel subsidy scenario, (4) reducing demand travel, (5) optimal scenario. This study finds that fuel balancing can contribute to the reduction of the amount of CO2 emission by up to 3%. Beyond 3% emission reductions, more stringent measures that include fuel switching, fuel efficiency improvement, demand travel reduction and combination of mitigation measures have to be employed. The model revealed that the CO2 emission reduction in the road transportation can be reduced by 38.3% in the optimal scenario.

Keywords: CO2 emission, fuel consumption, optimization, linear programming, transportation sector, Malaysia

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Authors: Kaushal Kishore

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Immense amount of imported fuels are used in Fiji for electricity generation, transportation and for carrying out miscellaneous household work. To alleviate its dependency on fossil fuel, paramount importance has been given to instigate the utilization of renewable energy sources for power generation and to reduce the environmental dilapidation. Amongst the many renewable energy sources, wind has been considered as one of the best identified renewable sources that are comprehensively available in Fiji. In this study the wind resource assessment for three locations in Rakiraki, Fiji has been carried out. The wind resource estimation at Rokavukavu, Navolau and at Tuvavatu has been analyzed. The average wind speed at 55 m above ground level (a.g.l) at Rokavukavu, Navolau, and Tuvavatu sites are 5.91 m/s, 8.94 m/s and 8.13 m/s with the turbulence intensity of 14.9%, 17.1%, and 11.7% respectively. The moment fitting method has been used to estimate the Weibull parameter and the power density at each sites. A high resolution wind resource map for the three locations has been developed by using Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program (WAsP). The results obtained from WAsP exhibited good wind potential at Navolau and Tuvavatu sites. A wind farm has been proposed at Navolau and Tuvavatu site that comprises six Vergnet 275 kW wind turbines at each site. The annual energy production (AEP) for each wind farm is estimated and an economic analysis is performed. The economic analysis for the proposed wind farms at Navolau and Tuvavatu sites showed a payback period of 5 and 6 years respectively.

Keywords: annual energy production, Rakiraki Fiji, turbulence intensity, Weibull parameter, wind speed, Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program

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Authors: Hesam Gholami

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Elevated suspended sediment loads in riverine systems resulting from accelerated erosion due to human activities are a serious threat to the sustainable management of watersheds and ecosystem services therein worldwide. Therefore, mitigation of deleterious sediment effects as a distributed or non-point pollution source in the catchments requires reliable provenance information. Sediment tracing or sediment fingerprinting, as a combined process consisting of sampling, laboratory measurements, different statistical tests, and the application of mixing or unmixing models, is a useful technique for discriminating the sources of sediments. From 1996 to the present, different aspects of this technique, such as grouping the sources (spatial and individual sources), discriminating the potential sources by different statistical techniques, and modification of mixing and unmixing models, have been introduced and modified by many researchers worldwide, and have been applied to identify the provenance of fine materials in agricultural, rural, mountainous, and coastal catchments, and in large catchments with numerous lakes and reservoirs. In the last two decades, efforts exploring the uncertainties associated with sediment fingerprinting results have attracted increasing attention. The frameworks used to quantify the uncertainty associated with fingerprinting estimates can be divided into three groups comprising Monte Carlo simulation, Bayesian approaches and generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE). Given the above background, the primary goal of this study was to apply geochemical fingerprinting within the GLUE framework in the estimation of sub-basin spatial sediment source contributions in the arid Mehran River catchment in southern Iran, which drains into the Persian Gulf. The accuracy of GLUE predictions generated using four different sets of statistical tests for discriminating three sub-basin spatial sources was evaluated using 10 virtual sediments (VS) samples with known source contributions using the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). Based on the results, the contributions modeled by GLUE for the western, central and eastern sub-basins are 1-42% (overall mean 20%), 0.5-30% (overall mean 12%) and 55-84% (overall mean 68%), respectively. According to the mean absolute fit (MAF; ≥ 95% for all target sediment samples) and goodness-of-fit (GOF; ≥ 99% for all samples), our suggested modeling approach is an accurate technique to quantify the source of sediments in the catchments. Overall, the estimated source proportions can help watershed engineers plan the targeting of conservation programs for soil and water resources.

Keywords: sediment source tracing, generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation, virtual sediment mixtures, Iran

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Authors: Akiko Kondo, Akio Kondo

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We are facing regional problems to low birth rate and longevity in Japan. Under this situation, there are some local municipalities which lose their vitality. The aims of this study are to clarify the present state of local public transportation services in local municipalities and relation between local public transportation services and population quantitatively. We conducted a questionnaire survey concerning regional agenda in all local municipalities in Japan. We obtained responses concerning the present state of convenience in use of public transportation and local public transportation services. Based on the data gathered from the survey, it is apparent that we should some sort of measures concerning public transportation services. Convenience in use of public transportation becomes an object of public concern in many rural regions. It is also clarified that some local municipalities introduce a demand bus for the purpose of promotion of administrative and financial efficiency. They also introduce a demand taxi in order to secure transportation to weak people in transportation and eliminate of blank area related to public transportation services. In addition, we construct a population model which includes explanatory variables of present states of local public transportation services. From this result, we can clarify the relation between public transportation services and population quantitatively.

Keywords: public transportation, local municipality, regional analysis, regional issue

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Authors: Lenshie, Nsemba Edward

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This paper examines political sexuality as an identity construct, which imparts on democratic practices globally. The manifestation of political sexuality reflect on the dynamics of social, economic, cultural and political relations among different gender affecting a number of issues, such as the questions of citizenship, poverty alleviation, property rights, ownership and inheritance, rights to sexual consent, polygamous marriage, governance and representation among other issues. This paper is concerned with the aspect of political participation among different genders in Nigeria. This paper posit that political sexuality is an outcome of ‘sexuality differences’, which seeks to glorify and gratify the superiority of a particular sexuality over another. Political sexuality, therefore, motivate and exacerbate socio-cultural, economic, and political struggles among different sexualities. The paper asserts further that majority of women have been discriminated, sexually harassed, and are often denied certain rights and privileges in Nigeria. A few number of women who have found themselves at the corridors of government have used the Beijing protocol on Women to demand for ‘affirmative action’ to expand their political space. It contends that the ‘affirmative action’ in Nigeria is far from achieving it throughout the country. The paper conclude that women require more than just a ‘self-rediscovery’ to assertively demand for a more and proper inclusion in Nigeria’s democratic process.

Keywords: gender democracy, identity, politics, political sexuality

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Authors: Shohreh Azizi, Wag Nel

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The rapid population growth in South Africa has increased the requirement of waste water treatment facilities. The aim of this study is to assess the potential use of Fluidized bed Bio Reactor for Mmabatho sewage treatment plant. The samples were collected from the Inlet and Outlet of reactor daily to analysis the pH, Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD), Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD), Total Suspended Solid (TSS) as per standard method APHA 2005. The studies were undertaken on a continue laboratory scale, and analytical data was collected before and after treatment. The reduction of 87.22 % COD, 89.80 BOD % was achieved. Fluidized Bed Bio Reactor remove Bod/COD removal as well as nutrient removal. The efforts also made to study the impact of the biological system if the domestic wastewater gets contaminated with any industrial contamination and the result shows that the biological system can tolerate high Total dissolved solids up to 6000 mg/L as well as high heavy metal concentration up to 4 mg/L. The data obtained through the experimental research are demonstrated that the FBBR may be used (<3 h total Hydraulic Retention Time) for secondary treatment in Mmabatho wastewater treatment plant.

Keywords: fluidized bed bioreactor, wastewater treatment plant, biological system, high TDS, heavy metal

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Authors: Swapna Begum, Higano Yoshiro

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Dhaka is the capital city of Bangladesh. It is considered as one of the traffic congested cities in the world. The growth of the population of this city is increasing day by day. The land use pattern and the increased socio-economic characteristics increase the motor vehicle ownership of this city. The rapid unplanned urbanization and poor transportation planning have deteriorated the transport environment of this city. Also, the huge travel demand with non-motorized traffics on streets is accounted for enormous traffic congestion in this city. The land transport sector in Dhaka is mainly dependent on road transport comprised of both motorized and non-motorized modes of travel. This improper modal mix and the un-integrated system have resulted in huge traffic congestion in this city. Moreover, this city has no well-organized public transport system and any Mass Transit System to cope with this ever increasing demand. Traffic congestion causes serious air pollution and adverse impact on the economy by deteriorating the accessibility, level of service, safety, comfort and operational efficiency. Therefore, there is an imperative need to introduce a well-organized, properly scheduled mass transit system like (Bus Rapid Transit) BRT minimizing the existing problems.

Keywords: air pollution, BRT, mass transit, traffic congestion

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Authors: Hugo Badia

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This research answers which is the most suitable transit network structure to serve specific demand requirements in an increasing urban dispersion process. Two main approaches of network design are found in the literature. On the one hand, a traditional answer, widespread in our cities, that develops a high number of lines to connect most of origin-destination pairs by direct trips; an approach based on the idea that users averse to transfers. On the other hand, some authors advocate an alternative design characterized by simple networks where transfer is essential to complete most of trips. To answer which of them is the best option, we use a two-step methodology. First, by means of an analytical model, three basic network structures are compared: a radial scheme, starting point for the other two structures, a direct trip-based network, and a transfer-based one, which represent the two alternative transit network designs. The model optimizes the network configuration with regard to the total cost for each structure. For a scenario of dispersion, the best alternative is the structure with the minimum cost. This dispersion degree is defined in a simple way considering that only a central area attracts all trips. If this area is small, we have a high concentrated mobility pattern; if this area is too large, the city is highly decentralized. In this first step, we can determine the area of applicability for each structure in function to that urban dispersion degree. The analytical results show that a radial structure is suitable when the demand is so centralized, however, when this demand starts to scatter, new transit lines should be implemented to avoid transfers. If the urban dispersion advances, the introduction of more lines is no longer a good alternative, in this case, the best solution is a change of structure, from direct trips to a network based on transfers. The area of applicability of each network strategy is not constant, it depends on the characteristics of demand, city and transport technology. In the second step, we translate analytical results to a real case study by the relationship between the parameters of dispersion of the model and direct measures of dispersion in a real city. Two dimensions of the urban sprawl process are considered: concentration, defined by Gini coefficient, and centralization by area based centralization index. Once it is estimated the real dispersion degree, we are able to identify in which area of applicability the city is located. In summary, from a strategic point of view, we can obtain with this methodology which is the best network design approach for a city, comparing the theoretical results with the real dispersion degree.

Keywords: analytical network design model, network structure, public transport, urban dispersion

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Authors: Niyati Sharma, Om Anand, Sanjeev Kumar Prasad

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Assuming future sale value for any of the organizations is one of the major essential characteristics of tactical development. Walmart Sales Forecasting is the finest illustration to work with as a beginner; subsequently, it has the major retail data set. Walmart uses this sales estimate problem for hiring purposes also. We would like to analyzing how the internal and external effects of one of the largest companies in the US can walk out their Weekly Sales in the future. Demand forecasting is the planned prerequisite of products or services in the imminent on the basis of present and previous data and different stages of the market. Since all associations is facing the anonymous future and we do not distinguish in the future good demand. Hence, through exploring former statistics and recent market statistics, we envisage the forthcoming claim and building of individual goods, which are extra challenging in the near future. As a result of this, we are producing the required products in pursuance of the petition of the souk in advance. We will be using several machine learning models to test the exactness and then lastly, train the whole data by Using linear regression and fitting the training data into it. Accuracy is 8.88%. The extra trees regression model gives the best accuracy of 97.15%.

Keywords: random forest algorithm, linear regression algorithm, extra trees classifier, mean absolute error

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Authors: Nathenal Thomas Lambamo

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Based on the fact that more than 85% of the labor force and 90% of the export earnings are taken by agriculture in Ethiopia and it can be said that it is the backbone of the overall socio-economic activities in the country. Among the cereal crops that the agriculture sector provides for the country, wheat is the third-ranking one preceding teff and maize. In the present day, wheat is in higher demand related to the expansion of industries that use them as the main ingredient for their products. The local supply of wheat for these companies covers only 35 to 40% and the rest 60 to 65% percent is imported on behalf of potential customers that exhaust the country’s foreign currency reserves. The above facts show that the need for this crop in the country is too high and in reverse, the productivity of the crop is very less because of these reasons. Wheat disease is the most devastating disease that contributes a lot to this unbalance in the demand and supply status of the crop. It reduces both the yield and quality of the crop by 27% on average and up to 37% when it is severe. This study aims to detect the most frequent and degrading wheat diseases, Septoria and Leaf rust, using the most efficiently used subset of machine learning technology, deep learning. As a state of the art, a deep learning class classification technique called Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) has been used to detect diseases and has an accuracy of 99.01% is achieved.

Keywords: septoria, leaf rust, deep learning, CNN

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Authors: Ahmed Z. Mazen, Nejat Rahmanian, Iqbal Mujtaba, Ali Hassanpour

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In oil and gas well drilling, the drill bit is an important part of the Bottom Hole Assembly (BHA), which is installed and designed to drill and produce a hole by several mechanisms. The efficiency of the bit depends on many drilling parameters such as weight on bit, rotary speed, and mud properties. When the bit is pulled out of the hole, the evaluation of the bit damage must be recorded very carefully to guide engineers in order to select the bits for further planned wells. Having a worn bit for hole drilling may cause severe damage to bit leading to cutter or cone losses in the bottom of hole, where a fishing job will have to take place, and all of these will increase the operating cost. The main factor to reduce the cost of drilling operation is to maximize the rate of penetration by analyzing real-time data to predict the drill bit wear while drilling. There are numerous models in the literature for prediction of the rate of penetration based on drilling parameters, mostly based on empirical approaches. One of the most commonly used approaches is Bourgoyne and Young model, where the rate of penetration can be estimated by the drilling parameters as well as a wear index using an empirical correlation, provided all the constants and coefficients are accurately determined. This paper introduces a new methodology to estimate the eight coefficients for Bourgoyne and Young model using the gPROMS parameters estimation GPE (Version 4.2.0). Real data collected form similar formations (12 ¼’ sections) in two different fields in Libya are used to estimate the coefficients. The estimated coefficients are then used in the equations and applied to nearby wells in the same field to predict the bit wear.

Keywords: Bourgoyne and Young model, bit wear, gPROMS, rate of penetration

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Authors: Seada Hussen, Frie Ayalew

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Integrating different energy resources, like solar PV and hydro, is used to ensure reliable power to rural communities like Hara village in Ethiopia. Hybrid power system offers power supply for rural villages by providing an alternative supply for the intermittent nature of renewable energy resources. The intermittent nature of renewable energy resources is a challenge to electrifying rural communities in a sustainable manner with solar resources. Major rural villages in Ethiopia are suffering from a lack of electrification, that cause our people to suffer deforestation, travel for long distance to fetch water, and lack good services like clinic and school sufficiently. The main objective of this project is to provide a balanced, stable, reliable supply for Hara village, Ethiopia using solar power with a pumped hydro energy storage system. The design of this project starts by collecting data from villages and taking solar irradiance data from NASA. In addition to this, geographical arrangement and location are also taken into consideration. After collecting this, all data analysis and cost estimation or optimal sizing of the system and comparison of solar with pumped hydro and solar with battery storage system is done using Homer Software. And since solar power only works in the daytime and pumped hydro works at night time and also at night and morning, both load will share to cover the load demand; this need controller designed to control multiple switch and scheduling in this project fuzzy logic controller is used to control this scenario. The result of the simulation shows that solar with pumped hydro energy storage system achieves good results than with a battery storage system since the comparison is done considering storage reliability, cost, storage capacity, life span, and efficiency.

Keywords: pumped hydro storage, solar energy, solar PV, battery energy storage, fuzzy logic controller

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Authors: Aysun Pınarbaşı, Béla Vizvári

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The countries are the units that procure the vaccines during the COVID-19 pandemic. The delivered quantities are huge. The countries must bear the inventory holding cost according to the variation of stock quantities. This cost depends on the speed of the vaccination in the country. This speed is time-dependent. The vaccinated portion of the population can be approximated by the cumulative distribution function of the Cauchy distribution. A model is provided for determining the minimal-cost inventory policy, and its optimality conditions are provided. The model is solved for 20 countries for different numbers of procurements. The results reveal the individual behavior of each country. We provide an inventory policy for the pandemic period for the countries. This paper presents a deterministic model for vaccines with a demand rate variable over time for the countries. It is aimed to provide an analytical model to deal with the minimization of holding cost and develop inventory policies regarding this aim to be used for a variety of perishable products such as vaccines. The saturation process is introduced, and an approximation of the vaccination curve of the countries has been discussed. According to this aspect, a deterministic model for inventory policy has been developed.

Keywords: covid-19, vaccination, inventory policy, bounded total demand, inventory holding cost, cauchy distribution, sigmoid function

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Authors: R. Sharma, S. Kumar, C. Sharma

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A number of toxic chlorophenolic compounds are formed during pulp bleaching. The nature and concentration of these chlorophenolic compounds largely depends upon the amount and nature of bleaching chemicals used. These compounds are highly recalcitrant and difficult to remove but are partially removed by the biochemical treatment processes adopted by the paper industry. Identification and estimation of these chlorophenolic compounds has been carried out in the primary and secondary clarified effluents from the paper mill by GCMS. Twenty-six chorophenolic compounds have been identified and estimated in paper mill waste waters. Electrochemical treatment is an efficient method for oxidation of pollutants and has successfully been used to treat textile and oil waste water. Electrochemical treatment using less expensive anode material, stainless steel electrodes has been tried to study their removal. The electrochemical assembly comprised a DC power supply, a magnetic stirrer and stainless steel (316 L) electrode. The optimization of operating conditions has been carried out and treatment has been performed under optimized treatment conditions. Results indicate that 68.7% and 83.8% of cholorphenolic compounds are removed during 2 h of electrochemical treatment from primary and secondary clarified effluent respectively. Further, there is a reduction of 65.1, 60 and 92.6% of COD, AOX and color, respectively for primary clarified and 83.8%, 75.9% and 96.8% of COD, AOX and color, respectively for secondary clarified effluent. EC treatment has also been found to increase significantly the biodegradability index of wastewater because of conversion of non- biodegradable fraction into biodegradable fraction. Thus, electrochemical treatment is an efficient method for the degradation of cholorophenolic compounds, removal of color, AOX and other recalcitrant organic matter present in paper mill waste water.

Keywords: chlorophenolics, effluent, electrochemical treatment, wastewater

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Authors: Sarbjit Singh, Amit Kumar Lal

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In India there is no governing body to control advertisement apart from ASCI due to which most of the companies are targeting children in their advertisements that have a negative impact on their behaviour. The main purpose of this research paper is to find out the impact of the television advertisement on the behaviour of the children as observed and reported by parents. The exploratory research design is adopted by using in-depth interviews with 20 parents in various cities of Punjab on the basis semi-structured interviews a self-administered structured Questionnaire was developed for data collection. Exploratory factor analysis using varimax rotation is used to analyse the data from 100 parents from the conjoint cities of Punjab. (Jalandhar, Amritsar and Ludhiana) The finding suggests that children demand those products which are more advertised. Parents believe that television advertisements are affecting the study of their children. Moreover, the children are becoming more violent, stubborn and rebellious. They try to start copying from the advertisements and indulge in bad habits. Children demand, nag and pester their parents to purchase the advertised product. This research paper would help advertisers to understand children behaviour towards advertisements and more over what should be done to control the negative impact of advertisement on children. Advertisers can also understand the parental perception towards advertisement.

Keywords: advertisement, consumer behaviour, children perception, teen marketing

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Authors: Cem Isik Dogru, Salih Tekin, Kursad Derinkuyu

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Electric vehicle (EV) carsharing is an alternative method to tackle urban transportation problems. This method can be applied by several options. One of the options is the one-way carsharing, which allow an EV to be taken at a designated location and leaving it on another specified location customer desires. Although it may increase users’ satisfaction, the issues, namely, demand dissatisfaction, relocation of EVs and charging schedules, must be dealt with. Also, excessive electricity has to be stored in batteries of EVs. To cope with aforementioned issues, two-step mixed integer programming (MIP) model is proposed. In first step, the integer programming model is used to determine amount of electricity to be sold to the grid in terms of time periods for extra profit. Determined amounts are provided from the batteries of EVs. Also, this step works in day-ahead electricity markets with forecast of periodical electricity prices. In second step, other MIP model optimizes daily operations of one-way carsharing: charging-discharging schedules, relocation of EVs to serve more demand and renting to maximize the profit of EV fleet owner. Due to complexity of the models, heuristic methods are introduced to attain a feasible solution and different price information scenarios are compared.

Keywords: electric vehicles, forecasting, mixed integer programming, one-way carsharing

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Authors: R. Santos Alimi

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Using time-series techniques, this study empirically tested the validity of existing theory which stipulates there is a nonlinear relationship between government size and economic growth; such that government spending is growth-enhancing at low levels but growth-retarding at high levels, with the optimal size occurring somewhere in between. This study employed three estimation equations. First, for the size of government, two measures are considered as follows: (i) share of total expenditures to gross domestic product, (ii) share of recurrent expenditures to gross domestic product. Second, the study adopted real GDP (without government expenditure component), as a variant measure of economic growth other than the real total GDP, in estimating the optimal level of government expenditure. The study is based on annual Nigeria country-level data for the period 1970 to 2012. Estimation results show that the inverted U-shaped curve exists for the two measures of government size and the estimated optimum shares are 19.81% and 10.98%, respectively. Finally, with the adoption of real GDP (without government expenditure component), the optimum government size was found to be 12.58% of GDP. Our analysis shows that the actual share of government spending on average (2000 - 2012) is about 13.4%.This study adds to the literature confirming that the optimal government size exists not only for developed economies but also for developing economy like Nigeria. Thus, a public intervention threshold level that fosters economic growth is a reality; beyond this point economic growth should be left in the hands of the private sector. This finding has a significant implication for the appraisal of government spending and budgetary policy design.

Keywords: public expenditure, economic growth, optimum level, fully modified OLS

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Authors: Habib Alshuwaikhat, Nahid Hossain

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Residential sector consumes more than half of the produced electricity in Saudi Arabia, and fossil fuel is the main source of energy to meet growing household electricity demand in the Kingdom. Several studies forecasted and expressed concern that unless the domestic energy demand growth is controlled, it will reduce Saudi Arabia’s crude oil export capacity within a decade and the Kingdom is likely to be incapable of exporting crude oil within next three decades. Though the Saudi government has initiated to address the domestic energy demand growth issue, the demand side energy management policies and programs are focused on industrial and commercial sectors. It is apparent that there is an urgent need to develop a comprehensive energy efficiency strategy for addressing efficient energy use in residential sector in the Kingdom. Then again as Saudi Arabia is at its primary stage in addressing energy efficiency issues in its residential sector, there is a scope for the Kingdom to learn from global energy efficiency practices and design its own energy efficiency policies and programs. However, in order to do that sustainable, it is essential to address local contexts of energy efficiency. It is also necessary to find out the policies and programs that will fit to the local contexts. Thus the objective of this study was set to identify globally best practice energy efficiency policies and programs in residential sector that have replication potential in Saudi Arabia. In this regard two sets of multi-criteria decision analysis matrices were developed to evaluate the energy efficiency policies and programs. The first matrix was used to evaluate the global energy efficiency policies and programs, and the second matrix was used to evaluate the replication potential of global best practice energy efficiency policies and programs for Saudi Arabia. Wuppertal Institute’s guidelines for energy efficiency policy evaluation were used to develop the matrices, and the different attributes of the matrices were set through available literature review. The study reveals that the best practice energy efficiency policies and programs with good replication potential for Saudi Arabia are those which have multiple components to address energy efficiency and are diversified in their characteristics. The study also indicates the more diversified components are included in a policy and program, the more replication potential it has for the Kingdom. This finding is consistent with other studies, where it is observed that in order to be successful in energy efficiency practices, it is required to introduce multiple policy components in a cluster rather than concentrate on a single policy measure. The developed multi-criteria decision analysis matrices for energy efficiency policy and program evaluation could be utilized to assess the replication potential of other globally best practice energy efficiency policies and programs for the residential sector of the Kingdom. In addition it has potential to guide Saudi policy makers to adopt and formulate its own energy efficiency policies and programs for Saudi Arabia.

Keywords: Saudi Arabia, residential sector, energy efficiency, policy evaluation

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Authors: Alexander N. Pisarchik, Parth Chholak

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Intrinsic brain noise was estimated via magneto-encephalograms (MEG) recorded during perception of flickering visual stimuli with frequencies of 6.67 and 8.57 Hz. First, we measured the mean phase difference between the flicker signal and steady-state event-related field (SSERF) in the occipital area where the brain response at the flicker frequencies and their harmonics appeared in the power spectrum. Then, we calculated the probability distribution of the phase fluctuations in the regions of frequency locking and computed its kurtosis. Since kurtosis is a measure of the distribution’s sharpness, we suppose that inverse kurtosis is related to intrinsic brain noise. In our experiments, the kurtosis value varied among subjects from K = 3 to K = 5 for 6.67 Hz and from 2.6 to 4 for 8.57 Hz. The majority of subjects demonstrated leptokurtic kurtosis (K < 3), i.e., the distribution tails approached zero more slowly than Gaussian. In addition, we found a strong correlation between kurtosis and brain complexity measured as the correlation dimension, so that the MEGs of subjects with higher kurtosis exhibited lower complexity. The obtained results are discussed in the framework of nonlinear dynamics and complex network theories. Specifically, in a network of coupled oscillators, phase synchronization is mainly determined by two antagonistic factors, noise, and the coupling strength. While noise worsens phase synchronization, the coupling improves it. If we assume that each neuron and each synapse contribute to brain noise, the larger neuronal network should have stronger noise, and therefore phase synchronization should be worse, that results in smaller kurtosis. The described method for brain noise estimation can be useful for diagnostics of some brain pathologies associated with abnormal brain noise.

Keywords: brain, flickering, magnetoencephalography, MEG, visual perception, perception time

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Authors: Saeed Sayyad Hagh Shomar

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Traffic congestion pricing – as a strategy in travel demand management in urban areas to reduce traffic congestion, air pollution and noise pollution – has drawn many attentions towards itself. Unlike the satisfying findings in this method, there are still problems in determining the best functional congestion pricing scheme with regard to the situation. The so-called problems in this process will result in further complications and even the scheme failure. That is why having proper knowledge of the significance of congestion pricing schemes and the effective factors in choosing them can lead to the success of this strategy. In this study, first, a variety of traffic congestion pricing schemes and their components are introduced; then, their functional usage is discussed. Next, by analyzing and comparing the barriers, limitations and advantages, the selection criteria of pricing schemes are described. The results, accordingly, show that the selection of the best scheme depends on various parameters. Finally, based on examining the effective parameters, it is concluded that the implementation of area-based schemes (cordon and zonal) has been more successful in non-diversion of traffic. That is considering the topology of the cities and the fact that traffic congestion is often created in the city centers, area-based schemes would be notably functional and appropriate.

Keywords: congestion pricing, demand management, flat toll, variable toll

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Authors: Mrinal Saurabh Bhaskar, Rahul E Ravindranathan, Priyangana Borah

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Energy plays a key role and as a driving force for economic and social growth for any country. To manage the energy sources and its efficient utilization in different economic sectors, energy policy of a country is critical. The energy performance of a country is measured in Energy Intensity and India’s Energy Intensity due to several policies interventions has reduced from 0.53 toe/1000USD (2010) in the year 2000 to 0.38 toe/1000USD (2010) in the year 2014, which is about 28 per cent reduction. The Government of India has taken several initiates to manage their increasing energy demand and meet the climate change goals defined by them. The major policy milestones in India related to energy are (i) Enactment of Energy Conservation (EC) Act 2001 (ii) Establishment of Bureau of Energy Efficiency 2001 (iii) National Action Plan on Climate Change (iv) Launch of Demand Side Management schemes (v) Amendment of EC Act 2010 (vi) Launch of Perform Achieve and Trade scheme 2012. Through a critical review, this paper highlights the key energy policy interventions by India, its benefits and impact, challenges faced and efforts of the Government to overcome such challenges. Such take away would be helpful for other countries who are proposing to prepare or amend their energy policy for their different economic sectors.

Keywords: energy, efficiency, climate, policy

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