Search results for: coupled Markov random field (MRF)

Authors: Sung-Chul Hwang, Di Ren, Sang-Moon Yoon, Jong-Chun Park, Abbas Khayyer, Hitoshi Gotoh

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The slamming impact problem has a very important engineering background. For seaplane landing, recycling for the satellite re-entry capsule, and the impact load of the bow in the adverse sea conditions, the slamming problem always plays the important role. Due to its strong nonlinear effect, however, it seems to be not easy to obtain the accurate simulation results. Combined with the strong interaction between the fluid field and the elastic structure, the difficulty for the simulation leads to a new level for challenging. This paper presents a fully Lagrangian coupled solver for simulations of fluid-structure interactions, which is based on the Moving Particle Semi-implicit (MPS) method to solve the governing equations corresponding to incompressible flows as well as elastic structures. The developed solver is verified by reproducing the high velocity impact loads of deformable thin wedges with two different materials such as aluminum and steel on water entry. The present simulation results are compared with analytical solution derived using the hydrodynamic Wagner model and linear theory by Wan.

Keywords: fluid-structure interaction, moving particle semi-implicit (MPS) method, elastic structure, incompressible flow, wedge slamming impact

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Authors: Nadarajah I. Ramesh

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Much of the research on stochastic point process models for rainfall has focused on Poisson cluster models constructed from either the Neyman-Scott or Bartlett-Lewis processes. The doubly stochastic Poisson process provides a rich class of point process models, especially for fine-scale rainfall modelling. This paper provides an account of recent development on this topic and presents the results based on some of the fine-scale rainfall models constructed from this class of stochastic point processes. Amongst the literature on stochastic models for rainfall, greater emphasis has been placed on modelling rainfall data recorded at hourly or daily aggregation levels. Stochastic models for sub-hourly rainfall are equally important, as there is a need to reproduce rainfall time series at fine temporal resolutions in some hydrological applications. For example, the study of climate change impacts on hydrology and water management initiatives requires the availability of data at fine temporal resolutions. One approach to generating such rainfall data relies on the combination of an hourly stochastic rainfall simulator, together with a disaggregator making use of downscaling techniques. Recent work on this topic adopted a different approach by developing specialist stochastic point process models for fine-scale rainfall aimed at generating synthetic precipitation time series directly from the proposed stochastic model. One strand of this approach focused on developing a class of doubly stochastic Poisson process (DSPP) models for fine-scale rainfall to analyse data collected in the form of rainfall bucket tip time series. In this context, the arrival pattern of rain gauge bucket tip times N(t) is viewed as a DSPP whose rate of occurrence varies according to an unobserved finite state irreducible Markov process X(t). Since the likelihood function of this process can be obtained, by conditioning on the underlying Markov process X(t), the models were fitted with maximum likelihood methods. The proposed models were applied directly to the raw data collected by tipping-bucket rain gauges, thus avoiding the need to convert tip-times to rainfall depths prior to fitting the models. One advantage of this approach was that the use of maximum likelihood methods enables a more straightforward estimation of parameter uncertainty and comparison of sub-models of interest. Another strand of this approach employed the DSPP model for the arrivals of rain cells and attached a pulse or a cluster of pulses to each rain cell. Different mechanisms for the pattern of the pulse process were used to construct variants of this model. We present the results of these models when they were fitted to hourly and sub-hourly rainfall data. The results of our analysis suggest that the proposed class of stochastic models is capable of reproducing the fine-scale structure of the rainfall process, and hence provides a useful tool in hydrological modelling.

Keywords: fine-scale rainfall, maximum likelihood, point process, stochastic model

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Authors: Ehsan Asgari, Meisam Afazeli, Nezhla Attarchian

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Post-earthquake fire is considered as a major threat in seismic areas. After an earthquake, fire is possible in structures. In this research, the effect of post-earthquake fire on steel moment frames with and without fireproofing coating is investigated. For this purpose, finite element method is employed. For the verification of finite element results, the results of an experimental study carried out by previous researchers are used, and the predicted FE results are compared with the test results, and good agreement is observed. After ensuring the accuracy of the predictions of finite element models, the effect of post-earthquake fire on the frames is investigated taking into account the parameters including the presence or absence of fire protection, frame design assumptions, earthquake type and different fire scenario. Ordinary fire and post-earthquake fire effect on the frames is also studied. The plastic hinges induced by earthquake in the structure are determined in the beam to the column connection and in panel zone. These areas should be accurately considered when providing fireproofing coatings. The results of the study show that the occurrence of fire beside corner columns is the most damaging scenario that results in progressive collapse of structure. It was also concluded that the behavior of structure in fire after a strong ground motion is significantly different from that in a normal fire.

Keywords: post earthquake fire, moment frame, finite element simulation, coupled temperature-displacement analysis, fire scenario

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Authors: Yves Lacroix, Van Van Than, Didier Léandri, Pierre Liardet

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The western Tombolo of the Giens peninsula in southern France, known as Almanarre beach, is subject to coastal erosion. We are trying to use computer simulation in order to propose solutions to stop this erosion. Our aim was first to determine the main factors for this erosion and successfully apply a coupled hydro-sedimentological numerical model based on observations and measurements that have been performed on the site for decades. We have gathered all available information and data about waves, winds, currents, tides, bathymetry, coastal line, and sediments concerning the site. These have been divided into two sets: one devoted to calibrating a numerical model using Mike 21 software, the other to serve as a reference in order to numerically compare the present situation to what it could be if we implemented different types of underwater constructions. This paper presents the first part of the study: selecting and melting different sources into a coherent data basis, identifying the main erosion factors, and calibrating the coupled software model against the selected reference period. Our results bring calibration of the numerical model with good fitting coefficients. They also show that the winter South-Western storm events conjugated to depressive weather conditions constitute a major factor of erosion, mainly due to wave impact in the northern part of the Almanarre beach. Together, current and wind impact is shown negligible.

Keywords: Almanarre beach, coastal erosion, hydro-sedimentological, numerical model

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Authors: Babagana Abubakar, Alhaji Kuya

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Although the field of Space weather science is a young field among the space sciences, but yet history has it that activities related to this science began since the year 1859 when the great solar storm happened which resulted in the disruptions of telegraphs operations around the World at that particular time subsequently making it possible for the scientist Richard Carrington to be able to connect the Solar flare observed a day earlier before the great storm and the great deflection of the Earth’s Magnetic field (geometric storm) simultaneous with the telegraph disruption. However years later as at today with the advent of and the coming into existence of the Explorer 1, the Luna 1 and the establishments of the United States International Space Weather Program, International Geophysical Year (IGY) as well as the International Center for Space Weather Sciences and Education (ICSWSE) have made us understand the Space weather better and enable us well define the field of Space weather science. Despite the successes recorded in the development of Space sciences as a whole over the last century and the coming onboard of specialized bodies/programs on space weather like the International Space Weather Program and the ICSWSE, the majority of Africans including institutions, research organizations and even some governments are still ignorant about the existence of theSpace weather science,because apart from some very few countries like South Africa, Nigeria and Egypt among some few others the majority of the African nations and their academic institutions have no knowledge or idea about the existence of this field of Space science (Space weather).

Keywords: Africa, space, weather, education, science

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Authors: K. P. Ganesh, T. Gomathi, L. Arul Pragasan

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Degradation of lake water quality is one of the serious environmental threats for the last few decades, particularly, the lakes situated in and around urban and industrial areas. The present study aimed to analyze the physicochemical and biological parameters, and metal elements to determine the water quality of Krishnampathi, Ukkadam, Kurichi, Sulur and Singanallur Lakes. Of the 23 physicochemical parameters analyzed in the five lakes, except TDS, Chloride and Total hardness values all the 20 parameters were found within the prescribed limit as recommended by World Health Organization (WHO) and Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS). In case of biological parameter, both Total Coliform and Fecal Coliform bacteria (Escherichia coli) were identified. This indicates the contamination of lakes by fecal matter, and warns of potential of disease causing by viruses, bacteria and other organisms. Among the twelve metal elements (Al, Cr, Mn, Fe, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Se, Mo, Cd and Pb) determined by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectroscopy, except Cd (for all lakes), and Pb (for Ukkadam, Kurichi, Sulur & Singanallur), all the elements were found above the prescribed limits of BIS. The results of the present study revealed that all the five major lakes of Coimbatore were contaminated. It is recommended that proper implementation of the new wetland waste management system and monitoring of water quality be of the urgent need to sustain the water bodies for future generations.

Keywords: heavy metals, inductively coupled plasma-mass spectroscopy, physicochemical and biological parameters, water quality

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Authors: Zhenyu Yang, Qiunan Chen, Xiaocheng Huang

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Reliable prediction of tunnel collapse remains a prominent challenge in the field of civil engineering. In this study, leveraging the nonlinear Hoek-Brown failure criterion and the upper-bound theorem, an analytical solution for the collapse surface of shallowly buried circular tunnels was derived, taking into account the coupled effects of surface loads and pore water pressures. Initially, surface loads and pore water pressures were introduced as external force factors, equating the energy dissipation rate to the external force, yielding our objective function. Subsequently, the variational method was employed for optimization, and the outcomes were juxtaposed with previous research findings. Furthermore, we utilized the deduced equation set to systematically analyze the influence of various rock mass parameters on collapse shape and extent. To validate our analytical solutions, a comparison with prior studies was executed. The corroboration underscored the efficacy of our proposed methodology, offering invaluable insights for collapse risk assessment in practical engineering applications.

Keywords: tunnel roof stability, analytical solution, hoek–brown failure criterion, limit analysis

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Authors: Sugandha Gupta, Arun Kumar Jha

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A large number of ferroelectric materials have been intensely investigated for applications in non-volatile ferroelectric random access memories (FeRAMs), piezoelectric transducers, actuators, pyroelectric sensors, high dielectric constant capacitors, etc. Bismuth layered ferroelectric materials such as Strontium Bismuth Tantalate (SBT) has attracted a lot of attention due to low leakage current, high remnant polarization and high fatigue endurance up to 1012 switching cycles. However, pure SBT suffers from various major limitations such as high dielectric loss, low remnant polarization values, high processing temperature, bismuth volatilization, etc. Significant efforts have been made to improve the dielectric and ferroelectric properties of this compound. Firstly, it has been reported that electrical properties vary with the Sr/ Bi content ratio in the SrBi2Ta2O9 compsition i.e. non-stoichiometric compositions with Sr-deficient / Bi excess content have higher remnant polarization values than stoichiometic SBT compositions. With the objective to improve structural, dielectric, ferroelectric and piezoelectric properties of SBT compound, rare earth holmium (Ho3+) was chosen as a donor cation for substitution onto the Bi2O2 layer. Moreover, hardly any report on holmium substitution in stoichiometric SrBi2Ta2O9 and non-stoichiometric Sr0.8Bi2.2Ta2O9 compositions were available in the literature. The holmium substituted SrBi2-xHoxTa2O9 (x= 0.00-2.0) and Sr0.8Bi2.2Ta2O9 (x=0.0 and 0.01) compositions were synthesized by the solid state reaction method. The synthesized specimens were characterized for their structural and electrical properties. X-ray diffractograms reveal single phase layered perovskite structure formation for holmium content in stoichiometric SBT samples up to x ≤ 0.1. The granular morphology of the samples was investigated using scanning electron microscope (Hitachi, S-3700 N). The dielectric measurements were carried out using a precision LCR meter (Agilent 4284A) operating at oscillation amplitude of 1V. The variation of dielectric constant with temperature shows that the Curie temperature (Tc) decreases on increasing the holmium content. The specimen with x=2.0 i.e. the bismuth free specimen, has very low dielectric constant and does not show any appreciable variation with temperature. The dielectric loss reduces significantly with holmium substitution. The polarization–electric field (P–E) hysteresis loops were recorded using a P–E loop tracer based on Sawyer–Tower circuit. It is observed that the ferroelectric property improve with Ho substitution. Holmium substituted specimen exhibits enhanced value of remnant polarization (Pr= 9.22 μC/cm²) as compared to holmium free specimen (Pr= 2.55 μC/cm²). Piezoelectric co-efficient (d33 values) was measured using a piezo meter system (Piezo Test PM300). It is observed that holmium substitution enhances piezoelectric coefficient. Further, the optimized holmium content (x=0.01) in stoichiometric SrBi2-xHoxTa2O9 composition has been substituted in non-stoichiometric Sr0.8Bi2.2Ta2O9 composition to obtain further enhanced structural and electrical characteristics. It is expected that a new class of ferroelectric materials i.e. Rare Earth Layered Structured Ferroelectrics (RLSF) derived from Bismuth Layered Structured Ferroelectrics (BLSF) will generate which can be used to replace static (SRAM) and dynamic (DRAM) random access memories with ferroelectric random access memories (FeRAMS).

Keywords: dielectrics, ferroelectrics, piezoelectrics, strontium bismuth tantalate

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Authors: Ashish Dhamaniya, Vineet Jain, Rajesh Chouhan

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Traffic management is one of the gigantic issue in most of the urban roads in al-most all metropolitan cities in India. Speed is one of the critical traffic parameters for effective Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) implementation as it decides the arrival rate of vehicles on an intersection which are majorly the point of con-gestions. The study aimed to leverage Machine Learning (ML) models to produce precise predictions of speed on urban roadway links. The research objective was to assess how categorized traffic volume and road width, serving as variables, in-fluence speed prediction. Four tree-based regression models namely: Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), Extra Tree (ET), and Extreme Gradient Boost (XGB)are employed for this purpose. The models' performances were validated using test data, and the results demonstrate that Random Forest surpasses other machine learning techniques and a conventional utility theory-based model in speed prediction. The study is useful for managing the urban roadway network performance under mixed traffic conditions and effective implementation of ITS.

Keywords: stream speed, urban roads, machine learning, traffic flow

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Authors: Ouabel Habib, Taleb Mohamed Lamine, Ben Zohra Mohamed Nadjib

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The Tissemsilt Province occupies a natural transitional zone and is dedicated to cereal production, dry forage, and livestock farming. It encompasses an agricultural domain covering an area of 181,097 hectares, of which 143,451 hectares are considered arable land. A field study was conducted along a west-to-east transect, covering six zones within the province, including Maacem, Ammari, Tissemsilt, Khemisti, Laayoune, Theniet el Had, and Taza. Random soil samples were collected from each region for laboratory analyses to assess soil types and quality, ultimately aiming to identify soil diversity within the Tissemsilt Province. Within the agricultural zones, approximately 40 soil samples were collected, revealing that the province contains moderately high-quality clayey soils, semi-rich in organic matter. However, as one moves southward, this richness diminishes. This leads us to predict that the agricultural zone is an ideal region for cereal cultivation. Nonetheless, this situation is challenged by the decreasing precipitation, which affects overall yields.

Keywords: soil, biodiversity, semi-arid, agriculture

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Authors: Xuguang Leng

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The crater pattern on the Moon indicates the Moon was captured by Earth in the more recent years, disproves the theory that the Moon was born as a satellite to the Earth. The Moon was tidal locked since it became the satellite of the Earth. Moon’s near side is shielded by Earth from asteroid/comet collisions, with the center of the near side most protected. Yet the crater pattern on the Moon is fairly random, with no distinguishable empty spot/strip, no distinguishable difference near side vs. far side. Were the Moon born as Earth’s satellite, there would be a clear crater free spot, or strip should the tial lock shifts over time, on the near side; and far more craters on the far side. The nonexistence of even a vague crater free spot on the near side of the Moon indicates the capture was a more recent event. Given Earth’s much larger mass and sphere size over the Moon, Earth should have collided with asteroids and comets in much higher frequency, resulting in significant mass gain over the lifespan. Earth’s larger mass and magnetic field are better at retaining water and gas from solar wind’s stripping effect, thus accelerating the mass gain. A dwarf planet Moon can be pulled closer and closer to the Earth over time as Earth’s gravity grows stronger, eventually being captured as a satellite. Given enough time, it is possible Earth’s mass would be large enough to cause the Moon to collide with Earth.

Keywords: moon, origin, crater, pattern

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Authors: Musa Auwal Mamman, S. G. Isa

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This study was carried out in order to investigate the effectiveness of GeoGebra software in teaching and learning of linear and quadratic equations amongst senior secondary school students in Fagge Local Government Area, Kano State–Nigeria. Five research items were raised in objectives, research questions and hypotheses respectively. A random sampling method was used in selecting 398 students from a population of 2098 of SS2 students. The experimental group was taught using the GeoGebra software while the control group was taught using the conventional teaching method. The instrument used for the study was the mathematics performance test (MPT) which was administered at the beginning and at the end of the study. The results of the study revealed that students taught with GeoGebra software (experimental group) performed better than students taught with traditional teaching method. The t- test was used to analyze the data obtained from the study.

Keywords: GeoGebra Software, mathematics performance, random sampling, mathematics teaching

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Authors: Abderrahmane Hemmani, Hamid Khachab, Dennai Benmoussa, Hassane Benslimane, Abderrachid Helmaoui

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Back surface field GaAs with n -p-p+ structures are found to have better characteristics than the conventional solar cells. A theory, based on the transport of both minority carriers under the charge neutrality condition, has been developed in the present paper which explains behavior of the back surface field solar cells. That is reported with an efficiency of 25,05% (Jsc=33.5mA/cm2, Vco=0.87v and fill factor 86% under AM1.5 global conditions). We present the effect of technological parameters of the p+ layer on the conversion efficiency on the solar cell. Good agreement is achieved between our results and the simulation results given the variation of the equivalent recombination velocity to p+ layer as a function of BSF thickness and BSF doping.

Keywords: back surface field, GaAs, solar cell, technological parameters

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Authors: Michael Zimba

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A novel set of features for copy-move image forgery, CMIF, detection method is proposed. The proposed set presents a new approach which relies on electrostatic field theory, EFT. Solely for the purpose of reducing the dimension of a suspicious image, firstly performs discrete wavelet transform, DWT, of the suspicious image and extracts only the approximation subband. The extracted subband is then bijectively mapped onto a virtual electrostatic field where concepts of EFT are utilised to extract robust features. The extracted features are shown to be invariant to additive noise, JPEG compression, and affine transformation. The proposed features can also be used in general object matching.

Keywords: virtual electrostatic field, features, affine transformation, copy-move image forgery

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Authors: K. Ghosh, S. N. Tripathi, Manish Joshi, Y. S. Mayya, Arshad Khan, B. K. Sapra

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We have developed a CFD coupled aerosol microphysics model in the context of aerosol generation from a glowing wire. The governing equations can be solved implicitly for mass, momentum, energy transfer along with aerosol dynamics. The computationally efficient framework can simulate temporal behavior of total number concentration and number size distribution. This formulation uniquely couples standard K-Epsilon scheme with boundary layer model with detailed aerosol dynamics through residence time. This model uses measured temperatures (wire surface and axial/radial surroundings) and wire compositional data apart from other usual inputs for simulations. The model predictions show that bulk fluid motion and local heat distribution can significantly affect the aerosol behavior when the buoyancy effect in momentum transfer is considered. Buoyancy generated turbulence was found to be affecting parameters related to aerosol dynamics and transport as well. The model was validated by comparing simulated predictions with results obtained from six controlled experiments performed with a laboratory-made hot wire nanoparticle generator. Condensation particle counter (CPC) and scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS) were used for measurement of total number concentration and number size distribution at the outlet of reactor cell during these experiments. Our model-predicted results were found to be in reasonable agreement with observed values. The developed model is fast (fully implicit) and numerically stable. It can be used specifically for applications in the context of the behavior of aerosol particles generated from glowing wire technique and in general for other similar large scale domains. Incorporation of CFD in aerosol microphysics framework provides a realistic platform to study natural convection driven systems/ applications. Aerosol dynamics sub-modules (nucleation, coagulation, wall deposition) have been coupled with Navier Stokes equations modified to include buoyancy coupled K-Epsilon turbulence model. Coupled flow-aerosol dynamics equation was solved numerically and in the implicit scheme. Wire composition and temperature (wire surface and cell domain) were obtained/measured, to be used as input for the model simulations. Model simulations showed a significant effect of fluid properties on the dynamics of aerosol particles. The role of buoyancy was highlighted by observation and interpretation of nucleation zones in the planes above the wire axis. The model was validated against measured temporal evolution, total number concentration and size distribution at the outlet of hot wire generator cell. Experimentally averaged and simulated total number concentrations were found to match closely, barring values at initial times. Steady-state number size distribution matched very well for sub 10 nm particle diameters while reasonable differences were noticed for higher size ranges. Although tuned specifically for the present context (i.e., aerosol generation from hotwire generator), the model can also be used for diverse applications, e.g., emission of particles from hot zones (chimneys, exhaust), fires and atmospheric cloud dynamics.

Keywords: nanoparticles, k-epsilon model, buoyancy, CFD, hot wire generator, aerosol dynamics

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Authors: Balaji Viswanathan, Tim Oates

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A number of pilot projects have commenced across the world to use robots for senior care. We aim to measure the likeability of these robots among seniors and help robot designers focus on the features that matter. We built a robot likability score with over 30 parameters and used this to interview 50 seniors in various locations in the United States. This paper presents the results of this field research.

Keywords: HRI, assistive robotics, social robotics, HCI, aging

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Authors: Hassan Younis

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Purpose: The objective of this study is to review influential papers in the sustainability and supply chain studies domain, leveraging insights from this review to develop a structured framework for academics and researchers. This framework aims to assist scholars in identifying the most impactful publications for their scholarly pursuits. Subsequently, the study will apply and trial the developed framework on selected scholarly articles within the sustainability and supply chain studies domain to evaluate its efficacy, practicality, and reliability. Design/Methodology/Approach: Utilizing the "Publish or Perish" tool, a search was conducted to locate papers incorporating "sustainability" and "supply chain" in their titles. After rigorous filtering steps, a panel of university professors identified five crucial criteria for evaluating research robustness: average yearly citation counts (25%), scholarly contribution (25%), alignment of findings with objectives (15%), methodological rigor (20%), and journal impact factor (15%). These five evaluation criteria are abbreviated as “ACMAJ" framework. Each paper then received a tiered score (1-3) for each criterion, normalized within its category, and summed using weighted averages to calculate a Final Normalized Score (FNS). This systematic approach allows for objective comparison and ranking of the research based on its impact, novelty, rigor, and publication venue. Findings: The study's findings highlight the lack of structured frameworks for assessing influential sustainability research in supply chain management, which often results in a dependence on citation counts. A complete model that incorporates five essential criteria has been suggested as a response. By conducting a methodical trial on specific academic articles in the field of sustainability and supply chain studies, the model demonstrated its effectiveness as a tool for identifying and selecting influential research papers that warrant additional attention. This work aims to fill a significant deficiency in existing techniques by providing a more comprehensive approach to identifying and ranking influential papers in the field. Practical Implications: The developed framework helps scholars identify the most influential sustainability and supply chain publications. Its validation serves the academic community by offering a credible tool and helping researchers, students, and practitioners find and choose influential papers. This approach aids field literature reviews and study suggestions. Analysis of major trends and topics deepens our grasp of this critical study area's changing terrain. Originality/Value: The framework stands as a unique contribution to academia, offering scholars an important and new tool to identify and validate influential publications. Its distinctive capacity to efficiently guide scholars, learners, and professionals in selecting noteworthy publications, coupled with the examination of key patterns and themes, adds depth to our understanding of the evolving landscape in this critical field of study.

Keywords: supply chain management, sustainability, framework, model

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Authors: Matthew David Marmet

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Knowing your audience is important regardless of what profession you are in. Whether this audience is comprised of customers or students, having an idea of who these people are, where they come from, and some of the challenges they may have faced allows us to build better relationships with them. This paper will recap a field study experience that has been dubbed a "reverse field trip" to a local high school. Here, going back in time produced not only a great deal of nostalgia, but also served as a reminder of who prospective university students are before they arrive. This information is invaluable as it can help inform classroom (and other) strategies that may help them succeed, and persist through the college years, which will no doubt present them with undeniable changes and challenges. Interviews with school staff and observations of student behavior, both inside and outside the classroom, yielded several lessons learned (i.e., issues to address). These include considerations of regimen, three separate yet related levels of context, and expectation-setting. Each issue will be presented in detail, along with pedagogical strategies to help address them. These strategies have both student-level and institutional benefits as they have the potential not only to increase student engagement, but also improve retention rates.

Keywords: pedagogy, Student engagement, student retention, teaching strategy

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Authors: N. F. M. Mokhtar, N. Z. A. Hamid

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This paper reports an analytical investigation of the stability and thermal convection in a horizontal anisotropic porous medium in the presence of Coriolis force and magnetic field. The Darcy model is used in the momentum equation and Boussinesq approximation is considered for the density variation of the porous medium. The upper and lower boundaries of the porous medium are assumed to be conducting to temperature perturbation and we used first order Chebyshev polynomial Tau method to solve the resulting eigenvalue problem. Analytical solution is obtained for the case of stationary convection. It is found that the porous layer system becomes unstable when the mechanical anisotropy parameter elevated and increasing the Coriolis force and magnetic field help to stabilize the anisotropy porous medium.

Keywords: anisotropic, Chebyshev tau method, Coriolis force, Magnetic field

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Authors: Vaidehi Iyer, Konstantin Borozdin

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Time series prediction problems have many important practical applications, but are notoriously difficult for statistical modeling. Recently, machine learning methods have been attracted significant interest as a practical tool applied to a variety of problems, even though developments in this field tend to be semi-empirical. This paper explores application of Long Short Term Memory based Recurrent Neural Networks to the one-step prediction of time series for both trend and stochastic components. Two types of data are analyzed - daily stock prices, that are often considered to be a typical example of a random walk, - and weather patterns dominated by seasonal variations. Results from both analyses are compared, and reinforced learning framework is used to select more efficient between Recurrent Neural Networks and more traditional auto regression methods. It is shown that both methods are able to follow long-term trends and seasonal variations closely, but have difficulties with reproducing day-to-day variability. Future research directions and potential real world applications are briefly discussed.

Keywords: long short term memory, prediction methods, recurrent neural networks, reinforcement learning

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Authors: Sonal Budhiraja, Biswabrata Pradhan

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This work considers statistical inference based on progressive Type-I interval censored data with random removal. The scheme of progressive Type-I interval censoring with random removal can be described as follows. Suppose n identical items are placed on a test at time T0 = 0 under k pre-fixed inspection times at pre-specified times T1 < T2 < . . . < Tk, where Tk is the scheduled termination time of the experiment. At inspection time Ti, Ri of the remaining surviving units Si, are randomly removed from the experiment. The removal follows a binomial distribution with parameters Si and pi for i = 1, . . . , k, with pk = 1. In this censoring scheme, the number of failures in different inspection intervals and the number of randomly removed items at pre-specified inspection times are observed. Asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) are established under some regularity conditions. A β-content γ-level tolerance interval (TI) is determined for two parameters Weibull lifetime model using the asymptotic properties of MLEs. The minimum sample size required to achieve the desired β-content γ-level TI is determined. The performance of the MLEs and TI is studied via simulation.

Keywords: asymptotic normality, consistency, regularity conditions, simulation study, tolerance interval

Procedia PDF Downloads 239

Authors: R. Tudugala, B. M. A. I. Balasooriya, W. M. Ediri Arachchi, R. W. M. W. K. Rathnayake, T. D. Premaratna

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Brachytherapy involves placing a source of radiation near the cancer site which gives promising prognosis for cervical cancer treatments. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of random variation of treated volumes in between fractions in the 2D image based fractionated high dose rate brachytherapy for cervical cancer at National Cancer Institute Maharagama, Sri Lanka. Dose plans were analyzed for 150 cervical cancer patients with orthogonal radiographs (2D) based brachytherapy. ICRU treated volumes was modeled by translating the applicators with the help of “Multisource HDR plus software”. The difference of treated volumes with respect to the applicator geometry was analyzed by using SPSS 18 software; to derived patient population based estimates of delivered treated volumes relative to ideally treated volumes. Packing was evaluated according to bladder dose, rectum dose and geometry of the dose distribution by three consultant radiation oncologist. The difference of treated volumes depends on types of the applicators, which was used in fractionated brachytherapy. The means of the “Difference of Treated Volume” (DTV) for “Evenly activated tandem (ET)” length” group was ((X_1)) -0.48 cm3 and ((X_2)) 11.85 cm3 for “Unevenly activated tandem length (UET) group. The range of the DTV for ET group was 35.80 cm3 whereas UET group 104.80 cm3. One sample T test was performed to compare the DTV with “Ideal treatment volume difference (0.00cm3)”. It is evident that P value was 0.732 for ET group and for UET it was 0.00 moreover independent two sample T test was performed to compare ET and UET groups and calculated P value was 0.005. Packing was evaluated under three categories 59.38% used “Convenient Packing Technique”, 33.33% used “Fairly Packing Technique” and 7.29% used “Not Convenient Packing” in their fractionated brachytherapy treatments. Random variation of treated volume in ET group is much lower than UET group and there is a significant difference (p<0.05) in between ET and UET groups which affects the dose distribution of the treatment. Furthermore, it can be concluded nearly 92.71% patient’s packing were used acceptable packing technique at NCIM, Sri Lanka.

Keywords: brachytherapy, cervical cancer, high dose rate, tandem, treated volumes

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Authors: M. Z. Raqab, Debasis Kundu, M. A. Meraou

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In this paper, we have analyzed maximum precipitation data during a particular period of time obtained from different stations in the Global Historical Climatological Network of the USA. One important point to mention is that some stations are shut down on certain days for some reason or the other. Hence, the maximum values are recorded by excluding those readings. It is assumed that the number of stations that operate follows zero-truncated Poisson random variables, and the daily precipitation follows a lognormal random variable. We call this model a compound truncated Poisson lognormal model. The proposed model has three unknown parameters, and it can take a variety of shapes. The maximum likelihood estimators can be obtained quite conveniently using Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. Approximate maximum likelihood estimators are also derived. The associated confidence intervals also can be obtained from the observed Fisher information matrix. Simulation results have been performed to check the performance of the EM algorithm, and it is observed that the EM algorithm works quite well in this case. When we analyze the precipitation data set using the proposed model, it is observed that the proposed model provides a better fit than some of the existing models.

Keywords: compound Poisson lognormal distribution, EM algorithm, maximum likelihood estimation, approximate maximum likelihood estimation, Fisher information, skew distribution

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Authors: Jagul Huma Lashari, Arabella Bhutto

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Last few years have shown increased an interest of researchers in knowledge and technology transfer. However, facts show fewer types of knowledge transfer practices in the developing countries. This article focuses on assessment transfer channels of academic research produced by highly qualified academicians working in universities in Sindh offering degrees in field of an Environment in Sindh Pakistan. The academic field has been chosen because in field of the environment there is alarming need of research into practice for sustainable development. Using case study approach; in this research qualitative interviews have been conducted from PhD faculty members working in the universities offering degrees in field of environment. Obtained data is analyzed using descriptive statistics and chi-square test with the help of statistical packages for social sciences (SPSS). Research explored 31 channels of academic knowledge transfer from detailed review of literature and exploratory interviews with participants. Identified knowledge transfer channels have been grouped together in 6 groups of knowledge transfer channels; As knowledge transfer through publications, networking, mobility of researchers, joint research, intellectual property and co-operations. Results revealed that academic knowledge have been transferred through publications, networking, and co-operation. However, less number of academic knowledge has been transferred through groups of knowledge transfer channels such as Intellectual Property and joint research.

Keywords: environment, research knowledge, transfer channels, universities

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Authors: Khwaja Naweed Seddiqi

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Hydrocarbon resources are important for the redevelopment and sustainable progress of Afghanistan’s infrastructure. This paper aim is to increase the oil recovery of Hitervian reservoir of Angut oil field in north part of Afghanistan by an easy and available method, which is Buckley-Leveret frontal displacement theory. In this paper oil displacement by water that takes placed by injecting water into the under laying petroleum reservoir which called waterflooding technique is investigated. The theory is investigated in a laboratory experiment first then applied in Angut oil field which is now under the operation of a private petroleum company. Based on this study oil recovery of Angut oil field, residual oil saturation, Buckle-Leveret saturation and FBL is determined.

Keywords: waterflooding technique, two phase fluid flow, Buckley-Leveret, petroleum engineering

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Authors: Prashant Verma

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Commercial banks are facing immense pressure, including financial disintermediation, interest rate volatility and digital ways of finance. Retaining an existing customer is 5 to 25 less expensive than acquiring a new one. This paper explores customer churn prediction, based on various statistical & machine learning models and uses under-sampling, to improve the predictive power of these models. The results show that out of the various machine learning models, Random Forest which predicts the churn with 78% accuracy, has been found to be the most powerful model for the scenario. Customer vintage, customer’s age, average balance, occupation code, population code, average withdrawal amount, and an average number of transactions were found to be the variables with high predictive power for the churn prediction model. The model can be deployed by the commercial banks in order to avoid the customer churn so that they may retain the funds, which are kept by savings bank (SB) customers. The article suggests a customized campaign to be initiated by commercial banks to avoid SB customer churn. Hence, by giving better customer satisfaction and experience, the commercial banks can limit the customer churn and maintain their deposits.

Keywords: savings bank, customer churn, customer retention, random forests, machine learning, under-sampling

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Authors: Gurubasavaraju T. M.

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The magnetorheological (MR) damper could provide variable damping force with respect to the different input magnetic field. The damping force could be estimated through computational analysis using finite element and computational fluid dynamics analysis. The double-ended damper operates without changing the total volume of fluid. In this paper, damping force of double ended damper under different magnetic field is computed. Initially, the magneto-statics analysis carried out to evaluate the magnetic flux density across the fluid flow gap. The respective change in the rheology of the MR fluid is computed by using the experimentally fitted polynomial equation of shear stress versus magnetic field plot of MR fluid. The obtained values are substituted in the Herschel Buckley model to express the non-Newtonian behavior of MR fluid. Later, using computational fluid dynamic (CFD) analysis damping characteristics in terms of force versus velocity and force versus displacement for the respective magnetic field is estimated. The purpose of the present approach is to characterize the preliminary designed MR damper before fabricating.

Keywords: MR fluid, double ended MR damper, CFD, FEA

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Authors: Bharti Gupta, Alaukik Sharma

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The first aim is to determine the effect of the Earth's magnetic field on the motion of a conductor to evaluate the variations of the orbital elements of the conductor due to these effects. The effects of Earth's magnetic field on the motion of conductors have been studied at different heights, longitudes and latitudes. When the conductor cut the geomagnetic line of force, then an electro-motive force (EMF) is induced across to the conductor. Due to this induced EMF, an induced current will flow through the conductor. Resulting, a Lorentz force will be applied on the conductor who opposes the motion of the conductor. So our second aim is to determine the accurate value of Induced EMF and induced Lorentz Force at different heights, longitudes and latitudes.

Keywords: induced EMF, Lorentz force, geomagnetic lines of force, moving conductor

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Authors: Nur Dayana Khairunnisa Rosli, Seripah Awang Kechil

Abstract:

Swirling flows with velocity slip are important in nature and industrial processes. The present work considers the effects of velocity slip, temperature jump and suction/injection on the flow and heat transfer of power-law fluids due to a rotating disk in the presence of magnetic field. The system of the partial differential equations is highly non-linear. The number of independent variables is reduced by transforming the system into a system of coupled non-linear ordinary differential equations using similarity transformations. The effects of suction/injection, velocity slip and temperature jump on the flow rates are investigated for various cases of shear thinning and shear thickening power law fluids. The thermal and velocity jump strongly reduce the heat transfer rate and skin friction coefficient. Suction decreases the radial and tangential skin friction coefficient and the rate of heat transfer. It is also observed that the effects are more pronounced in the case of shear thinning fluids as compared to shear thickening fluids.

Keywords: heat transfer, power-law fluids, rotating disk, suction or injection, temperature jump, velocity slip

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Authors: Mihai-Alexandru Florea, Veronica Drumea, Roxana Nita, Cerasela Gird, Laura Olariu

Abstract:

The aim of this study was to investigate the residues of pesticide found in tea water infusions. A multi-residues method to determine 147 pesticides has been developed using the QuEChERS (Quick, Easy, Cheap, Effective, Rugged, Safe) procedure and dispersive solid phase extraction (d-SPE) for the cleanup the pesticides from complex matrices such as plants and tea. Sample preparation was carefully optimized for the efficient removal of coextracted matrix components by testing more solvent systems. Determination of pesticides was performed using GC-MS/MS (100 of pesticides) and LC-MS/MS (47 of pesticides). The selected reaction monitoring (SRM) mode was chosen to achieve low detection limits and high compounds selectivity and sensitivity. Overall performance was evaluated and validated according to DG-SANTE Guidelines. To assess the pesticide residue transfer rate (qualitative) from dried tea in infusions the samples (tea) were spiked with a mixture of pesticides at the maximum residues level accepted for teas and herbal infusions. In order to investigate the release of the pesticides in tea preparations, the medicinal plants were prepared in four ways by variation of water temperature and the infusion time. The pesticides from infusions were extracted using two methods: QuEChERS versus solid-phase extraction (SPE). More that 90 % of the pesticides studied was identified in infusion.

Keywords: tea, solid-phase extraction (SPE), selected reaction monitoring (SRM), QuEChERS

Procedia PDF Downloads 210