Search results for: adaptive probabilistic sampling
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 4135

Search results for: adaptive probabilistic sampling

3235 Study on the Effect of Weather Variables on the Spider Abundance in Two Ecological Zones of Ogun State, Nigeria

Authors: Odejayi Adedayo Olugbenga, Aina Adebisi

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Weather variables (rainfall and temperature) affect the diversity and abundance of both fauna and flora species. This study compared the weather variables with spider abundance in two ecological zones of Ogun State, Nigeria namely Ago-iwoye (Rainforest) in the Ijebu axis and Aiyetoro (Derived Savannah) in the Yewa axis. Seven study sites chosen by Simple Random Sampling in each ecosystem were used for the study. In each sampling area, a 60 m x 120 m land area was marked and sampled, spider collection techniques were; hand picking, use of sweep netting, and Pitfall trap. Adult spiders were identified to the species level. Species richness was estimated by a non-parametric species estimator while the diversity of spider species was assessed by Simpson Diversity Index and Species Richness by One-way Analysis of Variance. Results revealed that spiders were more abundant in rainforest zones than in derived savannah ecosystems. However, the pattern of spider abundance in rainforest zone and residential areas were similar. During high temperatures, the activities of spiders tended to increase according to this study. In contrast, results showed that there was a negative correlation between rainfall and spider species abundance in addition to a negative and weak correlation between rainfall and species richness. It was concluded that heavy downpour has lethal effects on both immature and sometimes matured spiders, which could lead to the extinction of some unknown species of spiders. Tree planting should be encouraged, as this shelters the spider.

Keywords: spider, abundance, species richness, species diversity

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3234 Prevalence and Factors Associated With Concurrent Use of Herbal Medicine and Anti-retroviral Therapy Among HIV/Aids Patients Attending Selected HIV Clinics in Wakiso District

Authors: Nanteza Rachel

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Background: Worldwide, there were 36.7 million people living with Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) in 2015, up from 35 million at the end of 2013. Wakiso district is one of the hotspots for the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)/ Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) infection in Uganda, with the prevalence of 8.1 %. Herbal medicine has gained popularity among Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)/ Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) patients as adjuvant therapy to reduce the adverse effects of ART. Regardless of the subsidized and physical availability of the Anti-Retroviral Therapy (ART), majority of Africans living with Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)/ Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) resort to adding to their ART traditional medicine. Result found out from a pilot observation made by the PI that indicate 13 out of 30 People Living with AIDS(PLWA) who are attending Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) clinics in Wakiso district reported to be using herbal preparations despite the fact that they were taking Anti Retro Viral (ARVs) this prompted this study to be done. Purpose of the study: To determine the prevalence and factors associated with concurrent use of herbal medicine and anti-retroviral therapy among HIV/AIDS patients attending selected HIV clinics in Wakiso district. Methodology: This was a cross sectional study with both quantitative data collection (use of a questionnaire) and qualitative data collection (key informants’ interviews). A mixed method of sampling was used, that is, purposive and random sampling. Purposive sampling was based on the location in the district and used to select 7 health facilities basing on the 7 health sub districts from Wakiso. Simple random sampling was used to select one HIV clinic from each of the 7 health sub districts. Furthermore, the study units were enrolled in to the study as they entered into the HIV clinics, and 105 respondents were interviewed. Both manual and computer packages (SPSS) were used to analyze the data Results: The prevalence of concurrent use of herbal medicine and ART was 38 (36.2%). Commonly HIV symptom treated with herbs was fever 27(71.1%), diarrhea 3(7.9%) and cough 2(5.3%). Commonly used herbs for fever (Omululuza (Vernonica amydalina), Ekigagi (Aloe sp), Nalongo (Justicia betonica Linn) while for diarrhea was Ntwatwa. The side effects also included; too much pain, itchy pain of HIV, aneamia,felt sick, loss/gain appetite, joint pain and bad dreams. Herbs used to sooth the side effects were; for aneamia was avocado leaves Parea Americana mill The significant factors associated with concurrent use of herbal medicine were being familiar with herbs and conventional medicine for management HIV symptoms being expensive. The other significant factor was exhibiting hostility to patients by health personnel providing HIV care. Conclusion: Herbal medicine is widely used by clients in HIV/AIDS care. Patients being familiar with herbs and conventional medicine being expensive were associated with concurrent use of herbal medicine and ART. The exhibition of hostility to the HIV/AIDS patients by the health care providers was also associated with concurrent use of herbal medicine and ART among HIV/AIDS patients.

Keywords: HIV patients, herbal medicine, antiretroviral therapy, factors associated

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3233 Prevalence of Lupus Glomerulonephritis in Renal Biopsies in an Eastern Region of the Arab World

Authors: M. Fayez Al Homsi, Reem Al Homsi

Abstract:

Renal disease is a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Glomerular diseases make a small portion of the renal disease. Lupus glomerulonephritis (GN) is the commonest among the GN of systemic diseases. More than a hundred and eighty-eight consecutive renal biopsies are performed and evaluated for clinically suspected glomerular diseases over a period of two years. As in a standard practice after receiving the ultrasound-guided renal biopsies, the fresh biopsy is divided to three parts, one part is frozen for immunofluorescence evaluation, the second part is placed in 4% glutaraldehyde for electron microscopic evaluation, and the third part is placed in 10% buffered formalin for light microscopic evaluation. Primary glomerular diseases are detected in 83 biopsies; glomerulonephritis (GN) of systemic diseases are identified in 88, glomerular lesions in vascular diseases in 3, glomerular lesions in metabolic diseases in 7, hereditary nephropathies in 2, end-stage kidney in 2, and glomerular lesions in transplantation in 3 biopsies. Among the primary lesions, focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (28) and mesangial proliferative GN (26) were the most common. Lupus GN (67) and Ig A nephropathy (20) were the most common of the GN of systemic diseases. Lupus nephritis biopsies included one biopsy diagnosed as class 1 (normal), 17 biopsies class 2 (mesangial proliferation), 5 biopsies class 3 (focal proliferative GN), 39 biopsies class 4 diffuse proliferative GN), 3 biopsies class 5 (membranous GN), and 2 biopsies class 6 (crescentic GN). Lupus GN is the most common among GN of systemic diseases. While diabetes is very common here, diabetic GN (3 biopsies) is not as common as might one expects. Most likely this is due to sampling and reluctance on part of nephrologists and patients in sampling the kidney in diabetes mellitus.

Keywords: diabetes, glomerulonephritis, lupus, mesangial proliferation, nephropathy

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3232 Impact of Extension Services Pastoralists’ Vulnerability to Climate Change in Northern Guinea Savannah of Nigeria

Authors: Sidiqat A. Aderinoye-Abdulwahab, Lateef L. Adefalu, Jubril O. Animashaun

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Pastoralists in Nigeria are situated in dry regions - where water and pasture for livestock are particularly scarce, as well as areas with poor availability of social amenities and infrastructure. This study therefore explored how extension service could be used to reduce the exposure of nomads to effects of seasonality, climate change, and the poor environmental conditions. The study was carried out in Northern guinea Savannah region of Nigeria because pastoralists have settled there in large numbers due to desertification and low rainfall in the arid regions. A multi-stage sampling procedure was used to arrive at the selection of two states (Kwara and Nassarawa) in the region. A total of 63 respondents were randomly chosen using simple random sampling. Focus group discussions and questionnaire were used to gather information while the data was analysed using content analysis. The facilities required by the sampled households are milking machine, cheese making machine, and preservatives to increase the shelf life of cheese. Whilst, the extension service required are demonstration on cheese making, training and seminars on animal husbandry. Additionally, livestock of pastoralists often encroach on farmers’ plots which usually result in pastoralist-farmer conflicts. The study thus recommends diversification of economic activity from livestock to non-livestock related activities as well as creation of grazing routes to reduce pastoralist/farmer conflict.

Keywords: arid region, coping strategies, livestock, livelihood

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3231 Young’s Modulus Variability: Influence on Masonry Vault Behavior

Authors: Abdelmounaim Zanaz, Sylvie Yotte, Fazia Fouchal, Alaa Chateauneuf

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This paper presents a methodology for probabilistic assessment of bearing capacity and prediction of failure mechanism of masonry vaults at the ultimate state with consideration of the natural variability of Young’s modulus of stones. First, the computation model is explained. The failure mode is the most reported mode, i.e. the four-hinge mechanism. Based on this assumption, the study of a vault composed of 16 segments is presented. The Young’s modulus of the segments is considered as random variable defined by a mean value and a coefficient of variation CV. A relationship linking the vault bearing capacity to the modulus variation of voussoirs is proposed. The failure mechanisms, in addition to that observed in the deterministic case, are identified for each CV value as well as their probability of occurrence. The results show that the mechanism observed in the deterministic case has decreasing probability of occurrence in terms of CV, while the number of other mechanisms and their probability of occurrence increase with the coefficient of variation of Young’s modulus. This means that if a significant change in the Young modulus of the segments is proven, taken it into account in computations becomes mandatory, both for determining the vault bearing capacity and for predicting its failure mechanism.

Keywords: masonry, mechanism, probability, variability, vault

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3230 Microplastics in the Seine River Catchment: Results and Lessons from a Pluriannual Research Programme

Authors: Bruno Tassin, Robin Treilles, Cleo Stratmann, Minh Trang Nguyen, Sam Azimi, Vincent Rocher, Rachid Dris, Johnny Gasperi

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Microplastics (<5mm) in the environment and in hydro systems is one of the major present environmental issues. Over the last five years a research programme was conducted in order to assess the behavior of microplastics in the Seine river catchment, in a Man-Land-Sea continuum approach. Results show that microplastic concentration varies at the seasonal scale, but also at much smaller scales, during flood events and with tides in the estuary for instance. Moreover, microplastic sampling and characterization issues emerged throughout this work. The Seine river is a 750km long river flowing in Northwestern France. It crosses the Paris megacity (12 millions inhabitants) and reaches the English Channel after a 170 km long estuary. This site is a very relevant one to assess the effect of anthropogenic pollution as the mean river flow is low (mean flow around 350m³/s) while the human presence and activities are very intense. Monthly monitoring of the microplastic concentration took place over a 19-month period and showed significant temporal variations at all sampling stations but no significant upstream-downstream increase, indicating a possible major sink to the sediment. At the scale of a major flood event (winter and spring 2018), microplastic concentration shows an evolution similar to the well-known suspended solids concentration, with an increase during the increase of the flow and a decrease during the decrease of the flow. Assessing the position of the concentration peak in relation to the flow peak was unfortunately impossible. In the estuary, concentrations vary with time in connection with tides movements and in the water column in relation to the salinity and the turbidity. Although major gains of knowledge on the microplastic dynamics in the Seine river have been obtained over the last years, major gaps remain to deal mostly with the interaction with the dynamics of the suspended solids, the selling processes in the water column and the resuspension by navigation or shear stress increase. Moreover, the development of efficient chemical characterization techniques during the 5 year period of this pluriannual research programme led to the improvement of the sampling techniques in order to access smaller microplastics (>10µm) as well as larger but rare ones (>500µm).

Keywords: microplastics, Paris megacity, seine river, suspended solids

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3229 A Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) for Forensic Soil Analysis: Tested Using a Simulated Crime Scene

Authors: Samara A. Testoni, Vander F. Melo, Lorna A. Dawson, Fabio A. S. Salvador

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Soil traces are useful as forensic evidence due to their potential to transfer and adhere to different types of surfaces on a range of objects or persons. The great variability expressed by soil physical, chemical, biological and mineralogical properties show soil traces as complex mixtures. Soils are continuous and variable, no two soil samples being indistinguishable, nevertheless, the complexity of soil characteristics can provide powerful evidence for comparative forensic purposes. This work aimed to establish a Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) for forensic soil analysis in Brazil. We carried out a simulated crime scene with double blind sampling to calibrate the sampling procedures. Samples were collected at a range of locations covering a range of soil types found in South of Brazil: Santa Candida and Boa Vista, neighbourhoods from Curitiba (State of Parana) and in Guarani and Guaraituba, neighbourhoods from Colombo (Curitiba Metropolitan Region). A previously validated sequential analyses of chemical, physical and mineralogical analyses was developed in around 2 g of soil. The suggested SOP and the sequential range of analyses were effective in grouping the samples from the same place and from the same parent material together, as well as successfully discriminated samples from different locations and originated from different rocks. In addition, modifications to the sample treatment and analytical protocol can be made depending on the context of the forensic work.

Keywords: clay mineralogy, forensic soils analysis, sequential analyses, kaolinite, gibbsite

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3228 Second Order Statistics of Dynamic Response of Structures Using Gamma Distributed Damping Parameters

Authors: Badreddine Chemali, Boualem Tiliouine

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This article presents the main results of a numerical investigation on the uncertainty of dynamic response of structures with statistically correlated random damping Gamma distributed. A computational method based on a Linear Statistical Model (LSM) is implemented to predict second order statistics for the response of a typical industrial building structure. The significance of random damping with correlated parameters and its implications on the sensitivity of structural peak response in the neighborhood of a resonant frequency are discussed in light of considerable ranges of damping uncertainties and correlation coefficients. The results are compared to those generated using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. The numerical results obtained show the importance of damping uncertainty and statistical correlation of damping coefficients when obtaining accurate probabilistic estimates of dynamic response of structures. Furthermore, the effectiveness of the LSM model to efficiently predict uncertainty propagation for structural dynamic problems with correlated damping parameters is demonstrated.

Keywords: correlated random damping, linear statistical model, Monte Carlo simulation, uncertainty of dynamic response

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3227 The Fantasy of the Media and the Sexual World of Adolescents: The Relationship between Viewing Sexual Content on Television and Sexual Behaviour of Adolescents

Authors: Ifeanyi Adigwe

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The influence of television on adolescents is prevalent and widespread because television is a powerful sex educator for adolescents. This study examined the relationship between viewing sexual content on television and sexual behaviour of adolescents in public senior secondary schools in Lagos, Nigeria. The study employed a survey research design with a structured questionnaire as instrument. The multi-stage sampling technique was adopted. Firstly, purposive sampling was adopted in selecting 3 educational districts namely: Agege, Maryland, and Agboju. These educational districts were chosen for convenience and its wide coverage area of public senior secondary schools in Lagos State. Secondly, the researcher adopted systematic sampling to select the schools. The schools were listed in alphabetical order in each district and every 10th school were selected, yielding 13 schools altogether. A total of 501 copies of questionnaire were administered to the students and a total 491 copies of the questionnaire were retrieved. Only 453 copies of the questionnaire met the inclusion criteria and were used for analysis. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, Pearson Correlation, Principal components analysis, and regression analysis. Results of correlation analysis showed a positive and significant relationship between adolescent sexual belief and their preference for sexual content in television (r =0.117, N =453, p=0.13), viewing sexual content on television and adolescent sexual behavior, (r =-0.112, N =453, p<0.05), adolescent television preference and their preference for sexual content in television (r =0.328, N =453, p<0.05), adolescent television preference and adolescent’s sexual behavior (r=0.093, N =453, p<0.05). However, a negative but significant relationship exists between adolescent’s sexual knowledge and their sexual behavior (r=-122, N=453, p=0.0009). Pearson’s correlation between adolescents’ sexual knowledge and sexual behavior shows that there is a positive significant but strong relationship between adolescent’s sexual knowledge and their sexual behavior (r=0.967, N=453, p<0.05). The results also show that adolescent’s preference for sexual content in television informs them about their sexuality, development and sexual health. The descriptive and inferential analysis of data revealed that the interaction among adolescent sexual belief, knowledge and adolescents’ preference of sexual in television and its resultant effect on adolescent sexual behavior is apparent because sexual belief and norms about sex of an adolescent can induce his television preference of sexual content on television. The study concludes that exposure to sexual content in television can impact on adolescent sexual behaviour. There is no doubt that the actual outcome of television viewing and adolescent sexual behavior remains controversial because adolescent sexual behavior is multifaceted and multi-dimensional. Since behavior is learned overtime, the frequency of exposure and nature of sexual content viewed overtime induces and hastens sexual activity.

Keywords: adolescent sexual behavior, Nigeria, sexual belief, sexual content, sexual knowledge, television preference

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3226 Spatial Variation of Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Potassium Contents of Tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) Plants Grown in Greenhouses (Springs) in Elmali-Antalya Region

Authors: Namik Kemal Sonmez, Sahriye Sonmez, Hasan Rasit Turkkan, Hatice Tuba Selcuk

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In this study, the spatial variation of plant and soil nutrition contents of tomato plants grown in greenhouses was investigated in Elmalı region of Antalya. For this purpose, total of 19 sampling points were determined. Coordinates of each sampling points were recorded by using a hand-held GPS device and were transferred to satellite data in GIS. Soil samples were collected from two different depths, 0-20 and 20-40 cm, and leaf were taken from different tomato greenhouses. The soil and plant samples were analyzed for N, P and K. Then, attribute tables were created with the analyses results by using GIS. Data were analyzed and semivariogram models and parameters (nugget, sill and range) of variables were determined by using GIS software. Kriged maps of variables were created by using nugget, sill and range values with geostatistical extension of ArcGIS software. Kriged maps of the N, P and K contents of plant and soil samples showed patchy or a relatively smooth distribution in the study areas. As a result, the N content of plants were sufficient approximately 66% portion of the tomato productions. It was determined that the P and K contents were sufficient of 70% and 80% portion of the areas, respectively. On the other hand, soil total K contents were generally adequate and available N and P contents were found to be highly good enough in two depths (0-20 and 20-40 cm) 90% portion of the areas.

Keywords: Elmali, nutrients, springs greenhouses, spatial variation, tomato

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3225 The Use of Nano-Crystalline Starch in Probiotic Yogurt and Its Effects on the Physicochemical and Biological Properties

Authors: Ali Seirafi

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The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect and application of starch nanocrystals on physicochemical and microbial properties in the industrial production of probiotic yogurt. In this study, probiotic yoghurt was manufactured by industrial method with the optimization and control of the technological factors affecting the probabilistic biomass, using probiotic bacteria Lactobacillus acidophilus and Bifidobacterium bifidum with commonly used yogurt primers. Afterwards, the effects of different levels of fat (1.3%, 2.5 and 4%), as well as the effects of various perbiotic compounds include starch nanocrystals (0.5%, 1 and 1.5%), galactolegalosaccharide (0.5% 1 and 1.5%) and fructooligosaccharide (0.5%, 1 and 1.5%) were evaluated. In addition, the effect of packaging (polyethylene and glass) was studied, while the effect of pH changes and final acidity were studied at each stage. In this research, all experiments were performed in 3 replications and the results were analyzed in a completely randomized design with SAS version 9.1 software. The results of this study showed that the addition of starch nanocrystal compounds as well as the use of glass packaging had the most positive effects on the survival of Lactobacillus acidophilus bacteria and the addition of nano-crystals and the increase in the cooling rate of the product, had the most positive effects on the survival of bacteria Bifidobacterium bifidum.

Keywords: Bifidobacterium bifidum, Lactobacillus acidophilus, prebiotics, probiotic yogurt

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3224 Retrospective Analysis Demonstrates No Difference in Percutaneous Native Renal Biopsy Adequacy Between Nephrologists and Radiologists in University Hospital Crosshouse

Authors: Nicole Harley, Mahmoud Eid, Abdurahman Tarmal, Vishal Dey

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Histological sampling plays an integral role in the diagnostic process of renal diseases. Percutaneous native renal biopsy is typically performed under ultrasound guidance, with this service usually being provided by nephrologists. In some centers, there is a role for radiologists in performing renal biopsies. Previous comparative studies have demonstrated non-inferiority between outcomes of percutaneous native renal biopsies performed by nephrologists compared with radiologists. We sought to compare biopsy adequacy between nephrologists and radiologists in University Hospital Crosshouse. The online system SERPR (Scottish Electronic Renal Patient Record) contains information pertaining to patients who have undergone renal biopsies. An online search was performed to acquire a list of all patients who underwent renal biopsy between 2013 and 2020 in University Hospital Crosshouse. 355 native renal biopsies were performed in total across this 7-year period. A retrospective analysis was performed on these cases, with records and reports being assessed for: the total number of glomeruli obtained per biopsy, whether the number of glomeruli obtained was adequate for diagnosis, as per an internationally agreed standard, and whether a histological diagnosis was achieved. Nephrologists performed 43.9% of native renal biopsies (n=156) and radiologists performed 56.1% (n=199). The mean number of glomeruli obtained by nephrologists was 17.16+/-10.31. The mean number of glomeruli obtained by radiologists was 18.38+/-10.55. T-test demonstrated no statistically significant difference between specialties comparatively (p-value 0.277). Native renal biopsies are required to obtain at least 8 glomeruli to be diagnostic as per internationally agreed criteria. Nephrologists met these criteria in 88.5% of native renal biopsies (n=138) and radiologists met this criteria in 89.5% (n=178). T-test and Chi-squared analysis demonstrate there was no statistically significant difference between the specialties comparatively (p-value 0.663 and 0.922, respectively). Biopsies performed by nephrologists yielded tissue that was diagnostic in 91.0% (n=142) of sampling. Biopsies performed by radiologists yielded tissue that was diagnostic in 92.4% (n=184) of sampling. T-test and Chi-squared analysis demonstrate there was no statistically significant difference between the specialties comparatively (p-value 0.625 and 0.889, respectively). This project demonstrates that at University Hospital Crosshouse, there is no statistical difference between radiologists and nephrologists in terms of glomeruli acquisition or samples achieving a histological diagnosis. Given the non-inferiority between specialties demonstrated by previous studies and this project, this evidence could support the restructuring of services to allow more renal biopsies to be performed by renal services and allow reallocation of radiology department resources.

Keywords: biopsy, medical imaging, nephrology, radiology

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3223 Performance and Limitations of Likelihood Based Information Criteria and Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation Approximation Methods

Authors: M. A. C. S. Sampath Fernando, James M. Curran, Renate Meyer

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Model assessment, in the Bayesian context, involves evaluation of the goodness-of-fit and the comparison of several alternative candidate models for predictive accuracy and improvements. In posterior predictive checks, the data simulated under the fitted model is compared with the actual data. Predictive model accuracy is estimated using information criteria such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the Deviance information criterion (DIC), and the Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC). The goal of an information criterion is to obtain an unbiased measure of out-of-sample prediction error. Since posterior checks use the data twice; once for model estimation and once for testing, a bias correction which penalises the model complexity is incorporated in these criteria. Cross-validation (CV) is another method used for examining out-of-sample prediction accuracy. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) is the most computationally expensive variant among the other CV methods, as it fits as many models as the number of observations. Importance sampling (IS), truncated importance sampling (TIS) and Pareto-smoothed importance sampling (PSIS) are generally used as approximations to the exact LOO-CV and utilise the existing MCMC results avoiding expensive computational issues. The reciprocals of the predictive densities calculated over posterior draws for each observation are treated as the raw importance weights. These are in turn used to calculate the approximate LOO-CV of the observation as a weighted average of posterior densities. In IS-LOO, the raw weights are directly used. In contrast, the larger weights are replaced by their modified truncated weights in calculating TIS-LOO and PSIS-LOO. Although, information criteria and LOO-CV are unable to reflect the goodness-of-fit in absolute sense, the differences can be used to measure the relative performance of the models of interest. However, the use of these measures is only valid under specific circumstances. This study has developed 11 models using normal, log-normal, gamma, and student’s t distributions to improve the PCR stutter prediction with forensic data. These models are comprised of four with profile-wide variances, four with locus specific variances, and three which are two-component mixture models. The mean stutter ratio in each model is modeled as a locus specific simple linear regression against a feature of the alleles under study known as the longest uninterrupted sequence (LUS). The use of AIC, BIC, DIC, and WAIC in model comparison has some practical limitations. Even though, IS-LOO, TIS-LOO, and PSIS-LOO are considered to be approximations of the exact LOO-CV, the study observed some drastic deviations in the results. However, there are some interesting relationships among the logarithms of pointwise predictive densities (lppd) calculated under WAIC and the LOO approximation methods. The estimated overall lppd is a relative measure that reflects the overall goodness-of-fit of the model. Parallel log-likelihood profiles for the models conditional on equal posterior variances in lppds were observed. This study illustrates the limitations of the information criteria in practical model comparison problems. In addition, the relationships among LOO-CV approximation methods and WAIC with their limitations are discussed. Finally, useful recommendations that may help in practical model comparisons with these methods are provided.

Keywords: cross-validation, importance sampling, information criteria, predictive accuracy

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3222 Reliability Analysis of Soil Liquefaction Based on Standard Penetration: A Case Study in Babol City

Authors: Mehran Naghizaderokni, Asscar Janalizadechobbasty

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There are more probabilistic and deterministic liquefaction evaluation procedures in order to judge whether liquefaction will occur or not. A review of this approach reveals that there is a need for a comprehensive procedure that accounts for different sources of uncertainty in liquefaction evaluation. In fact, for the same set of input parameters, different methods provide different factors of safety and/or probabilities of liquefaction. To account for the different uncertainties, including both the model and measurement uncertainties, reliability analysis is necessary. This paper has obtained information from Standard Penetration Test (SPT) and some empirical approaches such as: Seed et al, Highway bridge of Japan approach to soil liquefaction, The Overseas Coastal Area Development Institute of Japan (OCDI) and reliability method to studying potential of liquefaction in soil of Babol city in the north of Iran are compared. Evaluation potential of liquefaction in soil of Babol city is an important issue since the soil of some area contains sand, seismic area, increasing level of underground waters and consequently saturation of soil; therefore, one of the most important goals of this paper is to gain suitable recognition of liquefaction potential and find the most appropriate procedure of evaluation liquefaction potential to decrease related damages.

Keywords: reliability analysis, liquefaction, Babol, civil, construction and geological engineering

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3221 Study of a Few Additional Posterior Projection Data to 180° Acquisition for Myocardial SPECT

Authors: Yasuyuki Takahashi, Hirotaka Shimada, Takao Kanzaki

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A Dual-detector SPECT system is widely by use of myocardial SPECT studies. With 180-degree (180°) acquisition, reconstructed images are distorted in the posterior wall of myocardium due to the lack of sufficient data of posterior projection. We hypothesized that quality of myocardial SPECT images can be improved by the addition of data acquisition of only a few posterior projections to ordinary 180° acquisition. The proposed acquisition method (180° plus acquisition methods) uses the dual-detector SPECT system with a pair of detector arranged in 90° perpendicular. Sampling angle was 5°, and the acquisition range was 180° from 45° right anterior oblique to 45° left posterior oblique. After the acquisition of 180°, the detector moved to additional acquisition position of reverse side once for 2 projections, twice for 4 projections, or 3 times for 6 projections. Since these acquisition methods cannot be done in the present system, actual data acquisition was done by 360° with a sampling angle of 5°, and projection data corresponding to above acquisition position were extracted for reconstruction. We underwent the phantom studies and a clinical study. SPECT images were compared by profile curve analysis and also quantitatively by contrast ratio. The distortion was improved by 180° plus method. Profile curve analysis showed increased of cardiac cavity. Analysis with contrast ratio revealed that SPECT images of the phantoms and the clinical study were improved from 180° acquisition by the present methods. The difference in the contrast was not clearly recognized between 180° plus 2 projections, 180° plus 4 projections, and 180° plus 6 projections. 180° plus 2 projections method may be feasible for myocardial SPECT because distortion of the image and the contrast were improved.

Keywords: 180° plus acquisition method, a few posterior projections, dual-detector SPECT system, myocardial SPECT

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3220 Electrocardiogram Signal Denoising Using a Hybrid Technique

Authors: R. Latif, W. Jenkal, A. Toumanari, A. Hatim

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This paper presents an efficient method of electrocardiogram signal denoising based on a hybrid approach. Two techniques are brought together to create an efficient denoising process. The first is an Adaptive Dual Threshold Filter (ADTF) and the second is the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT). The presented approach is based on three steps of denoising, the DWT decomposition, the ADTF step and the highest peaks correction step. This paper presents some application of the approach on some electrocardiogram signals of the MIT-BIH database. The results of these applications are promising compared to other recently published techniques.

Keywords: hybrid technique, ADTF, DWT, thresholding, ECG signal

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3219 An Efficient Strategy for Relay Selection in Multi-Hop Communication

Authors: Jung-In Baik, Seung-Jun Yu, Young-Min Ko, Hyoung-Kyu Song

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This paper proposes an efficient relaying algorithm to obtain diversity for improving the reliability of a signal. The algorithm achieves time or space diversity gain by multiple versions of the same signal through two routes. Relays are separated between a source and destination. The routes between the source and destination are set adaptive in order to deal with different channels and noises. The routes consist of one or more relays and the source transmits its signal to the destination through the routes. The signals from the relays are combined and detected at the destination. The proposed algorithm provides a better performance than the conventional algorithms in bit error rate (BER).

Keywords: multi-hop, OFDM, relay, relaying selection

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3218 A Bayesian Network Approach to Customer Loyalty Analysis: A Case Study of Home Appliances Industry in Iran

Authors: Azam Abkhiz, Abolghasem Nasir

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To achieve sustainable competitive advantage in the market, it is necessary to provide and improve customer satisfaction and Loyalty. To reach this objective, companies need to identify and analyze their customers. Thus, it is critical to measure the level of customer satisfaction and Loyalty very carefully. This study attempts to build a conceptual model to provide clear insights of customer loyalty. Using Bayesian networks (BNs), a model is proposed to evaluate customer loyalty and its consequences, such as repurchase and positive word-of-mouth. BN is a probabilistic approach that predicts the behavior of a system based on observed stochastic events. The most relevant determinants of customer loyalty are identified by the literature review. Perceived value, service quality, trust, corporate image, satisfaction, and switching costs are the most important variables that explain customer loyalty. The data are collected by use of a questionnaire-based survey from 1430 customers of a home appliances manufacturer in Iran. Four scenarios and sensitivity analyses are performed to run and analyze the impact of different determinants on customer loyalty. The proposed model allows businesses to not only set their targets but proactively manage their customer behaviors as well.

Keywords: customer satisfaction, customer loyalty, Bayesian networks, home appliances industry

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3217 Investigating the Effect of Brand Equity on Competitive Advantage in the Banking Industry

Authors: Rohollah Asadian Kohestani, Nazanin Sedghi

Abstract:

As the number of banks and financial institutions working in Iran has been significantly increased, the attracting and retaining customers and encouraging them to continually use the modern banking services have been important and vital issues. Therefore, there would be a serious competition without a deep perception of consumers and fitness of banking services with their needs in the current economic conditions of Iran. It should be noted that concepts such as 'brand equity' is defined based on the view of consumers; however, it is also focused by shareholders, competitors and other beneficiaries of a firm in addition to bank and its consumers. This study examines the impact of brand equity on the competitive advantage in the banking industry as intensive competition between brands of different banks leads to pay more attention to the brands. This research is based on the Aaker’s model examining the impact of four dimensions of brand equity on the competitive advantage of private banks in Behshahr city. Moreover, conducting an applied research and data analysis has been carried out by a descriptive method. Data collection was done using literature review and questionnaire. A 'simple random' methodology was selected for sampling staff of banks while sampling methodology to select consumers of banks was the distribution of questionnaire between staff and consumers of five private banks including Tejarat, Mellat, Refah K., Ghavamin and, Tose’e Ta’avon banks. Results show that there is a significant relationship between brand equity and their competitive advantage. In this research, software of SPSS 16 and LISREL 8.5, as well as different methods of descriptive inferential statistics for analyzing data and test hypotheses, were employed.

Keywords: brand awareness, brand loyalty, brand equity, competitive advantage

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3216 Structure of the Working Time of Nurses in Emergency Departments in Polish Hospitals

Authors: Jadwiga Klukow, Anna Ksykiewicz-Dorota

Abstract:

An analysis of the distribution of nurses’ working time constitutes vital information for the management in planning employment. The objective of the study was to analyze the distribution of nurses’ working time in an emergency department. The study was conducted in an emergency department of a teaching hospital in Lublin, in Southeast Poland. The catalogue of activities performed by nurses was compiled by means of continuous observation. Identified activities were classified into four groups: Direct care, indirect care, coordination of work in the department and personal activities. Distribution of nurses’ working time was determined by work sampling observation (Tippett) at random intervals. The research project was approved by the Research Ethics Committee by the Medical University of Lublin (Protocol 0254/113/2010). On average, nurses spent 31% of their working time on direct care, 47% on indirect care, 12% on coordinating work in the department and 10% on personal activities. The most frequently performed direct care tasks were diagnostic activities – 29.23% and treatment-related activities – 27.69%. The study has provided information on the complexity of performed activities and utilization of nurses’ working time. Enhancing the effectiveness of nursing actions requires working out a strategy for improved management of the time nurses spent at work. Increasing the involvement of auxiliary staff and optimizing communication processes within the team may lead to reduction of the time devoted to indirect care for the benefit of direct care.

Keywords: emergency nurses, nursing care, workload, work sampling

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3215 Decision Making, Reward Processing and Response Selection

Authors: Benmansour Nassima, Benmansour Souheyla

Abstract:

The appropriate integration of reward processing and decision making provided by the environment is vital for behavioural success and individuals’ well being in everyday life. Functional neurological investigation has already provided an inclusive image on affective and emotional (motivational) processing in the healthy human brain and has recently focused its interest also on the assessment of brain function in anxious and depressed individuals. This article offers an overview on the theoretical approaches that relate emotion and decision-making, and spotlights investigation with anxious or depressed individuals to reveal how emotions can interfere with decision-making. This research aims at incorporating the emotional structure based on response and stimulation with a Bayesian approach to decision-making in terms of probability and value processing. It seeks to show how studies of individuals with emotional dysfunctions bear out that alterations of decision-making can be considered in terms of altered probability and value subtraction. The utmost objective is to critically determine if the probabilistic representation of belief affords could be a critical approach to scrutinize alterations in probability and value representation in subjective with anxiety and depression, and draw round the general implications of this approach.

Keywords: decision-making, motivation, alteration, reward processing, response selection

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3214 Using Probe Person Data for Travel Mode Detection

Authors: Muhammad Awais Shafique, Eiji Hato, Hideki Yaginuma

Abstract:

Recently GPS data is used in a lot of studies to automatically reconstruct travel patterns for trip survey. The aim is to minimize the use of questionnaire surveys and travel diaries so as to reduce their negative effects. In this paper data acquired from GPS and accelerometer embedded in smart phones is utilized to predict the mode of transportation used by the phone carrier. For prediction, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) are employed. Moreover a unique method to improve the prediction results from these algorithms is also proposed. Results suggest that the prediction accuracy of AdaBoost after improvement is relatively better than the rest.

Keywords: accelerometer, AdaBoost, GPS, mode prediction, support vector machine

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3213 Personality Across Different Castes: A Quantitative Study of Three Castes

Authors: Huma Aly, Caramel Rodger, Saman Zafar

Abstract:

The present study explored the role of caste system in determining and understanding various personality characteristics related to different castes. It analyzed various personality characteristics of Arains, Jutts and Sheikhs caste of Pakistan. Reasons for the emphasis on within caste marriage in relation to personality characteristics were identified. In the present study a sample of 200 unmarried students were taken from different institutes of Lahore, Pakistan. 117 students were taken from Fast University and 83 from LUMS (Lahore University of Management and Sciences) on the basis of purposive and convenience sampling. 76 Arains, 59 Sheikhs and 65 Jutts were taken. Non-probability purposive sampling, quantitative research method, big five personality scale were used. Kruskal Wallis test was used as three independent groups were taken in the study. Results revealed various personality characteristics associated with different castes namely Arain, Jutts and Sheikhs. Individuals belonging to Jutts caste were reported to be high on being talkative, findings faults, doing thorough job, being depressed, reservedness, quarrelling, reliable, tensed, deep thinker, worrying a lot, imaginative, lazy, inventive, assertive, cold aloof, preserved and rude. Arains were reported to be original, helpful, careless,relaxed, curious, enthusiastic, forgiving, quiet, trusting, moody, shy, retaining anger, routinely working, planners, nervous, playing with ideas, artistic, cooperative, easily distracted and sophisticated. Lastly, Sheikhs were reported to be energetic, disorganized, stable. This study will play a significant part in changing the traditional viewpoint of majority of elders of our society who still have immense association with the caste they belong to.

Keywords: castes, personality, Arains, Jutts, Sheikhs, Pakistan

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3212 The Martingale Options Price Valuation for European Puts Using Stochastic Differential Equation Models

Authors: H. C. Chinwenyi, H. D. Ibrahim, F. A. Ahmed

Abstract:

In modern financial mathematics, valuing derivatives such as options is often a tedious task. This is simply because their fair and correct prices in the future are often probabilistic. This paper examines three different Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) models in finance; the Constant Elasticity of Variance (CEV) model, the Balck-Karasinski model, and the Heston model. The various Martingales option price valuation formulas for these three models were obtained using the replicating portfolio method. Also, the numerical solution of the derived Martingales options price valuation equations for the SDEs models was carried out using the Monte Carlo method which was implemented using MATLAB. Furthermore, results from the numerical examples using published data from the Nigeria Stock Exchange (NSE), all share index data show the effect of increase in the underlying asset value (stock price) on the value of the European Put Option for these models. From the results obtained, we see that an increase in the stock price yields a decrease in the value of the European put option price. Hence, this guides the option holder in making a quality decision by not exercising his right on the option.

Keywords: equivalent martingale measure, European put option, girsanov theorem, martingales, monte carlo method, option price valuation formula

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3211 The Application of Lesson Study Model in Writing Review Text in Junior High School

Authors: Sulastriningsih Djumingin

Abstract:

This study has some objectives. It aims at describing the ability of the second-grade students to write review text without applying the Lesson Study model at SMPN 18 Makassar. Second, it seeks to describe the ability of the second-grade students to write review text by applying the Lesson Study model at SMPN 18 Makassar. Third, it aims at testing the effectiveness of the Lesson Study model in writing review text at SMPN 18 Makassar. This research was true experimental design with posttest Only group design involving two groups consisting of one class of the control group and one class of the experimental group. The research populations were all the second-grade students at SMPN 18 Makassar amounted to 250 students consisting of 8 classes. The sampling technique was purposive sampling technique. The control class was VIII2 consisting of 30 students, while the experimental class was VIII8 consisting of 30 students. The research instruments were in the form of observation and tests. The collected data were analyzed using descriptive statistical techniques and inferential statistical techniques with t-test types processed using SPSS 21 for windows. The results shows that: (1) of 30 students in control class, there are only 14 (47%) students who get the score more than 7.5, categorized as inadequate; (2) in the experimental class, there are 26 (87%) students who obtain the score of 7.5, categorized as adequate; (3) the Lesson Study models is effective to be applied in writing review text. Based on the comparison of the ability of the control class and experimental class, it indicates that the value of t-count is greater than the value of t-table (2.411> 1.667). It means that the alternative hypothesis (H1) proposed by the researcher is accepted.

Keywords: application, lesson study, review text, writing

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3210 Overview of Pre-Analytical Lab Errors in a Tertiary Care Hospital at Rawalpindi, Pakistan

Authors: S. Saeed, T. Butt, M. Rehan, S. Khaliq

Abstract:

Objective: To determine the frequency of pre-analytical errors in samples taken from patients for various lab tests at Fauji Foundation Hospital, Rawalpindi. Material and Methods: All the lab specimens for diagnostic purposes received at the lab from Fauji Foundation hospital, Rawalpindi indoor and outdoor patients were included. Total number of samples received in the lab is recorded in the computerized program made for the hospital. All the errors observed for pre-analytical process including patient identification, sampling techniques, test collection procedures, specimen transport/processing and storage were recorded in the log book kept for the purpose. Results: A total of 476616 specimens were received in the lab during the period of study including 237931 and 238685 from outdoor and indoor patients respectively. Forty-one percent of the samples (n=197976) revealed pre-analytical discrepancies. The discrepancies included Hemolyzed samples (34.8%), Clotted blood (27.8%), Incorrect samples (17.4%), Unlabeled samples (8.9%), Insufficient specimens (3.9%), Request forms without authorized signature (2.9%), Empty containers (3.9%) and tube breakage during centrifugation (0.8%). Most of these pre-analytical discrepancies were observed in samples received from the wards revealing that inappropriate sample collection by the medical staff of the ward, as most of the outdoor samples are collected by the lab staff who are properly trained for sample collection. Conclusion: It is mandatory to educate phlebotomists and paramedical staff particularly performing duties in the wards regarding timing and techniques of sampling/appropriate container to use/early delivery of the samples to the lab to reduce pre-analytical errors.

Keywords: pre analytical lab errors, tertiary care hospital, hemolyzed, paramedical staff

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3209 Characteristics of Cumulative Distribution Function of Grown Crack Size at Specified Fatigue Crack Propagation Life under Different Maximum Fatigue Loads in AZ31

Authors: Seon Soon Choi

Abstract:

Magnesium alloy has been widely used in structure such as an automobile. It is necessary to consider probabilistic characteristics of a structural material because a fatigue behavior of a structure has a randomness and uncertainty. The purpose of this study is to find the characteristics of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the grown crack size at a specified fatigue crack propagation life and to investigate a statistical crack propagation in magnesium alloys. The statistical fatigue data of the grown crack size are obtained through the fatigue crack propagation (FCP) tests under different maximum fatigue load conditions conducted on the replicated specimens of magnesium alloys. The 3-parameter Weibull distribution is used to find the CDF of grown crack size. The CDF of grown crack size in case of larger maximum fatigue load has longer tail in below 10 percent and above 90 percent. The fatigue failure occurs easily as the tail of CDF of grown crack size becomes long. The fatigue behavior under the larger maximum fatigue load condition shows more rapid propagation and failure mode.

Keywords: cumulative distribution function, fatigue crack propagation, grown crack size, magnesium alloys, maximum fatigue load

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3208 Sampling and Chemical Characterization of Particulate Matter in a Platinum Mine

Authors: Juergen Orasche, Vesta Kohlmeier, George C. Dragan, Gert Jakobi, Patricia Forbes, Ralf Zimmermann

Abstract:

Underground mining poses a difficult environment for both man and machines. At more than 1000 meters underneath the surface of the earth, ores and other mineral resources are still gained by conventional and motorised mining. Adding to the hazards caused by blasting and stone-chipping, the working conditions are best described by the high temperatures of 35-40°C and high humidity, at low air exchange rates. Separate ventilation shafts lead fresh air into a mine and others lead expended air back to the surface. This is essential for humans and machines working deep underground. Nevertheless, mines are widely ramified. Thus the air flow rate at the far end of a tunnel is sensed to be close to zero. In recent years, conventional mining was supplemented by mining with heavy diesel machines. These very flat machines called Load Haul Dump (LHD) vehicles accelerate and ease work in areas favourable for heavy machines. On the other hand, they emit non-filtered diesel exhaust, which constitutes an occupational hazard for the miners. Combined with a low air exchange, high humidity and inorganic dust from the mining it leads to 'black smog' underneath the earth. This work focuses on the air quality in mines employing LHDs. Therefore we performed personal sampling (samplers worn by miners during their work), stationary sampling and aethalometer (Microaeth MA200, Aethlabs) measurements in a platinum mine in around 1000 meters under the earth’s surface. We compared areas of high diesel exhaust emission with areas of conventional mining where no diesel machines were operated. For a better assessment of health risks caused by air pollution we applied a separated gas-/particle-sampling tool (or system), with first denuder section collecting intermediate VOCs. These multi-channel silicone rubber denuders are able to trap IVOCs while allowing particles ranged from 10 nm to 1 µm in diameter to be transmitted with an efficiency of nearly 100%. The second section is represented by a quartz fibre filter collecting particles and adsorbed semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOC). The third part is a graphitized carbon black adsorber – collecting the SVOCs that evaporate from the filter. The compounds collected on these three sections were analyzed in our labs with different thermal desorption techniques coupled with gas chromatography and mass spectrometry (GC-MS). VOCs and IVOCs were measured with a Shimadzu Thermal Desorption Unit (TD20, Shimadzu, Japan) coupled to a GCMS-System QP 2010 Ultra with a quadrupole mass spectrometer (Shimadzu). The GC was equipped with a 30m, BP-20 wax column (0.25mm ID, 0.25µm film) from SGE (Australia). Filters were analyzed with In-situ derivatization thermal desorption gas chromatography time-of-flight-mass spectrometry (IDTD-GC-TOF-MS). The IDTD unit is a modified GL sciences Optic 3 system (GL Sciences, Netherlands). The results showed black carbon concentrations measured with the portable aethalometers up to several mg per m³. The organic chemistry was dominated by very high concentrations of alkanes. Typical diesel engine exhaust markers like alkylated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons were detected as well as typical lubrication oil markers like hopanes.

Keywords: diesel emission, personal sampling, aethalometer, mining

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3207 Future Prospects of Female Journalists in Mass Media of Bangladesh

Authors: M. Nurus Safa, Jiang Jinzhang, Akter Tahera

Abstract:

This study explores the female are overcoming the odds and doing well as journalist during the last decade in Bangladesh. Female journalists are contributing to the society for economic prosperity and changing the attitude towards the development concept and process. But the path is not smooth for involving women in journalism. The findings are female journalist facing many barriers like family pressure, Society problem, pay-allowances, gender discrimination, sexual harassment and even lack of workplace. According to their skill and merit, they face problems in getting maternity leave and assignments. But their role in this sector cannot be neglected. It is possible to survive if have the passion, professionalism, and love on this profession. Day by day, the female participation in journalism sector is increasing in Bangladesh. Despite the barriers, female journalists are showing strong interest in journalism as a career. As much gender balance in Mass media as the women's freedom and scope will increase. As a result, the spread of female’s workplace in the media will spread. Good number of female journalists is working in different policy making positions of the organization. In future, experienced female journalists will be more because now day's they taking challenges and working religiously according to the company and public need. In recent time Bangladesh is encouraging her women to work outside of home. Currently, a significant change has come into the social attitude which represents by women’s advancement in journalism sector of Bangladesh. This study uses the survey method and 6 depth interview to find out a fruitful result. As a sampling, the study uses purposive sampling technique to collect the data from the 120 female respondents of television, online and print media journalists.

Keywords: attitude, Bangladesh, challenges, female journalists, prospects

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3206 A Digital Twin Approach to Support Real-time Situational Awareness and Intelligent Cyber-physical Control in Energy Smart Buildings

Authors: Haowen Xu, Xiaobing Liu, Jin Dong, Jianming Lian

Abstract:

Emerging smart buildings often employ cyberinfrastructure, cyber-physical systems, and Internet of Things (IoT) technologies to increase the automation and responsiveness of building operations for better energy efficiency and lower carbon emission. These operations include the control of Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) and lighting systems, which are often considered a major source of energy consumption in both commercial and residential buildings. Developing energy-saving control models for optimizing HVAC operations usually requires the collection of high-quality instrumental data from iterations of in-situ building experiments, which can be time-consuming and labor-intensive. This abstract describes a digital twin approach to automate building energy experiments for optimizing HVAC operations through the design and development of an adaptive web-based platform. The platform is created to enable (a) automated data acquisition from a variety of IoT-connected HVAC instruments, (b) real-time situational awareness through domain-based visualizations, (c) adaption of HVAC optimization algorithms based on experimental data, (d) sharing of experimental data and model predictive controls through web services, and (e) cyber-physical control of individual instruments in the HVAC system using outputs from different optimization algorithms. Through the digital twin approach, we aim to replicate a real-world building and its HVAC systems in an online computing environment to automate the development of building-specific model predictive controls and collaborative experiments in buildings located in different climate zones in the United States. We present two case studies to demonstrate our platform’s capability for real-time situational awareness and cyber-physical control of the HVAC in the flexible research platforms within the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) main campus. Our platform is developed using adaptive and flexible architecture design, rendering the platform generalizable and extendable to support HVAC optimization experiments in different types of buildings across the nation.

Keywords: energy-saving buildings, digital twins, HVAC, cyber-physical system, BIM

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