Search results for: contingency conditions
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 9972

Search results for: contingency conditions

732 The Role of Macroeconomic Condition and Volatility in Credit Risk: An Empirical Analysis of Credit Default Swap Index Spread on Structural Models in U.S. Market during Post-Crisis Period

Authors: Xu Wang

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This research builds linear regressions of U.S. macroeconomic condition and volatility measures in the investment grade and high yield Credit Default Swap index spreads using monthly data from March 2009 to July 2016, to study the relationship between different dimensions of macroeconomy and overall credit risk quality. The most significant contribution of this research is systematically examining individual and joint effects of macroeconomic condition and volatility on CDX spreads by including macroeconomic time series that captures different dimensions of the U.S. economy. The industrial production index growth, non-farm payroll growth, consumer price index growth, 3-month treasury rate and consumer sentiment are introduced to capture the condition of real economic activity, employment, inflation, monetary policy and risk aversion respectively. The conditional variance of the macroeconomic series is constructed using ARMA-GARCH model and is used to measure macroeconomic volatility. The linear regression model is conducted to capture relationships between monthly average CDX spreads and macroeconomic variables. The Newey–West estimator is used to control for autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity in error terms. Furthermore, the sensitivity factor analysis and standardized coefficients analysis are conducted to compare the sensitivity of CDX spreads to different macroeconomic variables and to compare relative effects of macroeconomic condition versus macroeconomic uncertainty respectively. This research shows that macroeconomic condition can have a negative effect on CDX spread while macroeconomic volatility has a positive effect on determining CDX spread. Macroeconomic condition and volatility variables can jointly explain more than 70% of the whole variation of the CDX spread. In addition, sensitivity factor analysis shows that the CDX spread is the most sensitive to Consumer Sentiment index. Finally, the standardized coefficients analysis shows that both macroeconomic condition and volatility variables are important in determining CDX spread but macroeconomic condition category of variables have more relative importance in determining CDX spread than macroeconomic volatility category of variables. This research shows that the CDX spread can reflect the individual and joint effects of macroeconomic condition and volatility, which suggests that individual investors or government should carefully regard CDX spread as a measure of overall credit risk because the CDX spread is influenced by macroeconomy. In addition, the significance of macroeconomic condition and volatility variables, such as Non-farm Payroll growth rate and Industrial Production Index growth volatility suggests that the government, should pay more attention to the overall credit quality in the market when macroecnomy is low or volatile.

Keywords: autoregressive moving average model, credit spread puzzle, credit default swap spread, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model, macroeconomic conditions, macroeconomic uncertainty

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731 Quality by Design in the Optimization of a Fast HPLC Method for Quantification of Hydroxychloroquine Sulfate

Authors: Pedro J. Rolim-Neto, Leslie R. M. Ferraz, Fabiana L. A. Santos, Pablo A. Ferreira, Ricardo T. L. Maia-Jr., Magaly A. M. Lyra, Danilo A F. Fonte, Salvana P. M. Costa, Amanda C. Q. M. Vieira, Larissa A. Rolim

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Initially developed as an antimalarial agent, hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) sulfate is often used as a slow-acting antirheumatic drug in the treatment of disorders of connective tissue. The United States Pharmacopeia (USP) 37 provides a reversed-phase HPLC method for quantification of HCQ. However, this method was not reproducible, producing asymmetric peaks in a long analysis time. The asymmetry of the peak may cause an incorrect calculation of the concentration of the sample. Furthermore, the analysis time is unacceptable, especially regarding the routine of a pharmaceutical industry. The aiming of this study was to develop a fast, easy and efficient method for quantification of HCQ sulfate by High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC) based on the Quality by Design (QbD) methodology. This method was optimized in terms of peak symmetry using the surface area graphic as the Design of Experiments (DoE) and the tailing factor (TF) as an indicator to the Design Space (DS). The reference method used was that described at USP 37 to the quantification of the drug. For the optimized method, was proposed a 33 factorial design, based on the QbD concepts. The DS was created with the TF (in a range between 0.98 and 1.2) in order to demonstrate the ideal analytical conditions. Changes were made in the composition of the USP mobile-phase (USP-MP): USP-MP: Methanol (90:10 v/v, 80:20 v/v and 70:30 v/v), in the flow (0.8, 1.0 and 1.2 mL) and in the oven temperature (30, 35, and 40ºC). The USP method allowed the quantification of drug in a long time (40-50 minutes). In addition, the method uses a high flow rate (1,5 mL.min-1) which increases the consumption of expensive solvents HPLC grade. The main problem observed was the TF value (1,8) that would be accepted if the drug was not a racemic mixture, since the co-elution of the isomers can become an unreliable peak integration. Therefore, the optimization was suggested in order to reduce the analysis time, aiming a better peak resolution and TF. For the optimization method, by the analysis of the surface-response plot it was possible to confirm the ideal setting analytical condition: 45 °C, 0,8 mL.min-1 and 80:20 USP-MP: Methanol. The optimized HPLC method enabled the quantification of HCQ sulfate, with a peak of high resolution, showing a TF value of 1,17. This promotes good co-elution of isomers of the HCQ, ensuring an accurate quantification of the raw material as racemic mixture. This method also proved to be 18 times faster, approximately, compared to the reference method, using a lower flow rate, reducing even more the consumption of the solvents and, consequently, the analysis cost. Thus, an analytical method for the quantification of HCQ sulfate was optimized using QbD methodology. This method proved to be faster and more efficient than the USP method, regarding the retention time and, especially, the peak resolution. The higher resolution in the chromatogram peaks supports the implementation of the method for quantification of the drug as racemic mixture, not requiring the separation of isomers.

Keywords: analytical method, hydroxychloroquine sulfate, quality by design, surface area graphic

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730 Identifying the Needs for Renewal of Urban Water Infrastructure Systems: Analysis of Material, Age, Types and Areas: Case Study of Linköping in Sweden

Authors: Eman Hegazy, Stefan Anderberg, Joakim Krook

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Urban water infrastructure is crucial for efficient and reliable water supply in growing cities. With the growth of cities, the need for maintenance and renewal of these systems increases but often goes unfulfilled due to a variety of reasons, such as limited funding, political priorities, or lack of public awareness. Neglecting the renewal needs of these systems can lead to frequent malfunctions and reduced quality and reliability of water supply, as well as increased costs and health and environmental hazards. It is important for cities to prioritize investment in water infrastructure and develop long-term plans to address renewal needs. Drawing general conclusions about the rate of renewal of urban water infrastructure systems at an international or national level can be challenging due to the influence of local management decisions. In many countries, the responsibility for water infrastructure management lies with the municipal authorities, who are responsible for making decisions about the allocation of resources for repair, maintenance, and renewal. These decisions can vary widely based on factors such as local finances, political priorities, and public perception of the importance of water infrastructure. As a result, it is difficult to make generalizations about the rate of renewal across different countries or regions. In Sweden, the situation is not different, and the information from Svenskt Vatten indicates that the rate of renewal varies across municipalities and can be insufficient, leading to a buildup of maintenance and renewal needs. This study aims to examine the adequacy of the rate of renewal of urban water infrastructure in Linköping case city in Sweden. Using a case study framework, the study will assess the current status of the urban water system and the need for renewal. The study will also consider the role of factors such as proper identification processes, limited funding, competing for political priorities, and local management decisions in contributing to insufficient renewal. The study investigates the following questions: (1) What is the current status of water and sewerage networks in terms of length, age distribution, and material composition, estimated total water leakage in the network per year, damages, leaks, and outages occur per year, both overall and by district? (2) What are the main causes of these damages, leaks, and interruptions, and how are they related to lack of maintenance and renewal? (3) What is the current status of renewal work for the water and sewerage networks, including the renewal rate and changes over time, recent renewal material composition, and the budget allocation for renewal and emergency repairs? (4) What factors influence the need for renewal and what conditions should be considered in the assessment? The findings of the study provide insights into the challenges facing urban water infrastructure and identify strategies for improving the rate of renewal to ensure a reliable and sustainable water supply.

Keywords: case study, infrastructure, management, renewal need, Sweden

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729 Comparison of Equivalent Linear and Non-Linear Site Response Model Performance in Kathmandu Valley

Authors: Sajana Suwal, Ganesh R. Nhemafuki

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Evaluation of ground response under earthquake shaking is crucial in geotechnical earthquake engineering. Damage due to seismic excitation is mainly correlated to local geological and geotechnical conditions. It is evident from the past earthquakes (e.g. 1906 San Francisco, USA, 1923 Kanto, Japan) that the local geology has strong influence on amplitude and duration of ground motions. Since then significant studies has been conducted on ground motion amplification revealing the importance of influence of local geology on ground. Observations from the damaging earthquakes (e.g. Nigata and San Francisco, 1964; Irpinia, 1980; Mexico, 1985; Kobe, 1995; L’Aquila, 2009) divulged that non-uniform damage pattern, particularly in soft fluvio-lacustrine deposit is due to the local amplification of seismic ground motion. Non-uniform damage patterns are also observed in Kathmandu Valley during 1934 Bihar Nepal earthquake and recent 2015 Gorkha earthquake seemingly due to the modification of earthquake ground motion parameters. In this study, site effects resulting from amplification of soft soil in Kathmandu are presented. A large amount of subsoil data was collected and used for defining the appropriate subsoil model for the Kathamandu valley. A comparative study of one-dimensional total-stress equivalent linear and non-linear site response is performed using four strong ground motions for six sites of Kathmandu valley. In general, one-dimensional (1D) site-response analysis involves the excitation of a soil profile using the horizontal component and calculating the response at individual soil layers. In the present study, both equivalent linear and non-linear site response analyses were conducted using the computer program DEEPSOIL. The results show that there is no significant deviation between equivalent linear and non-linear site response models until the maximum strain reaches to 0.06-0.1%. Overall, it is clearly observed from the results that non-linear site response model perform better as compared to equivalent linear model. However, the significant deviation between two models is resulted from other influencing factors such as assumptions made in 1D site response, lack of accurate values of shear wave velocity and nonlinear properties of the soil deposit. The results are also presented in terms of amplification factors which are predicted to be around four times more in case of non-linear analysis as compared to equivalent linear analysis. Hence, the nonlinear behavior of soil prevails the urgent need of study of dynamic characteristics of the soft soil deposit that can specifically represent the site-specific design spectra for the Kathmandu valley for building resilient structures from future damaging earthquakes.

Keywords: deep soil, equivalent linear analysis, non-linear analysis, site response

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728 Cloning and Expression a Gene of β-Glucosidase from Penicillium echinulatum in Pichia pastoris

Authors: Amanda Gregorim Fernandes, Lorena Cardoso Cintra, Rosalia Santos Amorim Jesuino, Fabricia Paula De Faria, Marcio José Poças Fonseca

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Bioethanol is one of the most promising biofuels and able to replace fossil fuels and reduce its different environmental impacts and can be generated from various agroindustrial waste. The Brazil is in first place in bioethanol production to be the largest producer of sugarcane. The bagasse sugarcane (SCB) has lignocellulose which is composed of three major components: cellulose, hemicellulose and lignin. Cellulose is a homopolymer of glucose units connected by glycosidic linkages. Among all species of Penicillium, Penicillium echinulatum has been the focus of attention because they produce high quantities of cellulase and the mutant strain 9A02S1 produces higher enzyme levels compared to the wild. Among the cellulases, the cellobiohydrolases enzymes are the main components of the cellulolytic system of fungi, and are also responsible for most of the potential hydrolytic in enzyme cocktails for the industrial processing of plant biomass and several cellobiohydrolases Penicillium had higher specific activity against cellulose compared to CBH I from Trichoderma reesei. This fact makes it an interesting pattern for higher yields in the enzymatic hydrolysis, and also they are important enzymes in the hydrolysis of crystalline regions of cellulose. Therefore, finding new and more active enzymes become necessary. Meanwhile, β-glycosidases act on soluble substrates and are highly dependent on cellobiohydrolases and endoglucanases action to provide the substrate in the hydrolysis of the biomass, but the cellobiohydrolases and endoglucanases are highly dependent β-glucosidases to maintain efficient hydrolysis. Thus, there is a need to understand the structure-function relationships that govern the catalytic activity of cellulolytic enzymes to elucidate its mechanism of action and optimize its potential as industrial biocatalysts. To evaluate the enzyme β-glucosidase of Penicillium echinulatum (PeBGL1) the gene was synthesized from the assembly sequence from a library in induction conditions and then the PeBGL1 gene was cloned in the vector pPICZαA and transformed into P. pastoris GS115. After processing, the producers of PeBGL1 were analyzed for enzyme activity and protein profile where a band of approximately 100 kDa was viewed. It was also carried out the zymogram. In partial characterization it was determined optimum temperature of 50°C and optimum pH of 6,5. In addition, to increase the secreted recombinant PeBGL1 production by Pichia pastoris, three parameters of P. pastoris culture medium were analysed: methanol, nitrogen source concentrations and the inoculum size. A 23 factorial design was effective in achieving the optimum condition. Altogether, these results point to the potential application of this P. echinulatum β-glucosidase in hydrolysis of cellulose for the production of bioethanol.

Keywords: bioethanol, biotechnology, beta-glucosidase, penicillium echinulatum

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727 The Effect of Slum Neighborhoods on Pregnancy Outcomes in Tanzania: Secondary Analysis of the 2015-2016 Tanzania Demographic and Health Survey Data

Authors: Luisa Windhagen, Atsumi Hirose, Alex Bottle

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Global urbanization has resulted in the expansion of slums, leaving over 10 million Tanzanians in urban poverty and at risk of poor health. Whilst rural residence has historically been associated with an increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes, recent studies found higher perinatal mortality rates in urban Tanzania. This study aims to understand to what extent slum neighborhoods may account for the spatial disparities seen in Tanzania. We generated a slum indicator based on UN-HABITAT criteria to identify slum clusters within the 2015-2016 Tanzania Demographic and Health Survey. Descriptive statistics, disaggregated by urban slum, urban non-slum, and rural areas, were produced. Simple and multivariable logistic regression examined the association between cluster residence type and neonatal mortality and stillbirth. For neonatal mortality, we additionally built a multilevel logistic regression model, adjusting for confounding and clustering. The neonatal mortality ratio was highest in slums (38.3 deaths per 1000 live births); the stillbirth rate was three times higher in slums (32.4 deaths per 1000 births) than in urban non-slums. Neonatal death was more likely to occur in slums than in urban non-slums (aOR=2.15, 95% CI=1.02-4.56) and rural areas (aOR=1.78, 95% CI=1.15-2.77). Odds of stillbirth were over five times higher among rural than urban non-slum residents (aOR=5.25, 95% CI=1.31-20.96). The results suggest that slums contribute to the urban disadvantage in Tanzanian neonatal health. Higher neonatal mortality in slums may be attributable to lack of education, lower socioeconomic status, poor healthcare access, and environmental factors, including indoor and outdoor air pollution and unsanitary conditions from inadequate housing. However, further research is required to ascertain specific causalities as well as significant associations between residence type and other pregnancy outcomes. The high neonatal mortality, stillbirth, and slum formation rates in Tanzania signify that considerable change is necessary to achieve international goals for health and human settlements. Disparities in access to adequate housing, safe water and sanitation, high standard antenatal, intrapartum, and neonatal care, and maternal education need to urgently be addressed. This study highlights the spatial neonatal mortality shift from rural settings to urban informal settlements in Tanzania. Importantly, other low- and middle-income countries experiencing overwhelming urbanization and slum expansion may also be at risk of a reversing trend in residential neonatal health differences.

Keywords: urban health, slum residence, neonatal mortality, stillbirth, global urbanisation

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726 Students’ Opinions Related to Virtual Classrooms within the Online Distance Education Graduate Program

Authors: Secil Kaya Gulen

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Face to face and virtual classrooms that came up with different conditions and environments, but similar purposes have different characteristics. Although virtual classrooms have some similar facilities with face-to-face classes such as program, students, and administrators, they have no walls and corridors. Therefore, students can attend the courses from a distance and can control their own learning spaces. Virtual classrooms defined as simultaneous online environments where students in different places come together at the same time with the guidance of a teacher. Distance education and virtual classes require different intellectual and managerial skills and models. Therefore, for effective use of virtual classrooms, the virtual property should be taken into consideration. One of the most important factors that affect the spread and effective use of the virtual classrooms is the perceptions and opinions of students -as one the main participants-. Student opinions and recommendations are important in terms of providing information about the fulfillment of expectation. This will help to improve the applications and contribute to the more efficient implementations. In this context, ideas and perceptions of the students related to the virtual classrooms, in general, were determined in this study. Advantages and disadvantages of virtual classrooms expected contributions to the educational system and expected characteristics of virtual classrooms have examined in this study. Students of an online distance education graduate program in which all the courses offered by virtual classrooms have asked for their opinions. Online Distance Education Graduate Program has totally 19 students. The questionnaire that consists of open-ended and multiple choice questions sent to these 19 students and finally 12 of them answered the questionnaire. Analysis of the data presented as frequencies and percentages for each item. SPSS for multiple-choice questions and Nvivo for open-ended questions were used for analyses. According to the results obtained by the analysis, participants stated that they did not get any training on virtual classes before the courses; but they emphasize that newly enrolled students should be educated about the virtual classrooms. In addition, all participants mentioned that virtual classroom contribute their personal development and they want to improve their skills by gaining more experience. The participants, who mainly emphasize the advantages of virtual classrooms, express that the dissemination of virtual classrooms will contribute to the Turkish Education System. Within the advantages of virtual classrooms, ‘recordable and repeatable lessons’ and ‘eliminating the access and transportation costs’ are most common advantages according to the participants. On the other hand, they mentioned ‘technological features and keyboard usage skills affect the attendance’ is the most common disadvantage. Participants' most obvious problem during virtual lectures is ‘lack of technical support’. Finally ‘easy to use’, ‘support possibilities’, ‘communication level’ and ‘flexibility’ come to the forefront in the scope of expected features of virtual classrooms. Last of all, students' opinions about the virtual classrooms seems to be generally positive. Designing and managing virtual classrooms according to the prioritized features will increase the students’ satisfaction and will contribute to improve applications that are more effective.

Keywords: distance education, virtual classrooms, higher education, e-learning

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725 A Study of Status of Women by Incorporating Literacy and Employment in India and Some Selected States

Authors: Barnali Thakuria, Labananda Choudhury

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Gender equality and women’s empowerment is one of the components of eight Millennium Development Goal (MDG).Literacy and employment are the parameters which reflect the empowerment of women. But in a developing country like India, literacy and working status among the females are not satisfactory. Both literacy and employment technically can be measured by Literate Life Expectancy (LLE) and Working Life Expectancy (WLE).One can also combine both the factors literacy and working to get a better new measure. The proposed indicator can be called literate-working life expectancy (LWLE). LLE gives an average number of years a person lives in a literate state under current mortality and literacy conditions while WLE defined as average number of years a person lives in a working state if current mortality and working condition prevails. Similarly, LWLE gives number of expected years by a person living under both literate and working state. The situation of females cannot be figured out without comparing both the sexes. In the present paper an attempt has been made to estimate LLE and WLE in India along with some selected states from various zones of India namely Assam from the North-East, Gujarat from the West, Kerala from the South, Rajasthan from the North, Uttar Pradesh from the Central and West Bengal from the East respectively for both the sexes based on 2011 census. Furthermore, we have also developed a formula for a new indicator namely Literate-Working Life Expectancy (LWLE) and the proposed index has been applied in India and the selected states mentioned above for both males and females. Data has been extracted from SRS(Sample Registration System) based Abridged Life Table and Census of India. The computation of LLE follows the method developed by Lutz while WLE has followed the method developed by Saw Swee Hock. By combining both the factors literacy and employment, the new indicator LWLE also follows the method like LLE and WLE. Contrasted results have been found in different parts of India. The result shows that LLE at birth is highest(lowest) in the state Kerala(Uttar Pradesh) with 61.66 (39.51) years among the males. A similar situation is also observed among the females with 62.58 years and 25.11 years respectively. But male WLE at birth is highest (lowest) in Rajasthan(Kerala) with 37.11 (32.64) years. Highest female WLE at birth is also observed in Rajasthan with 23.51 years and the lowest is concentrated in Uttar Pradesh with 11.76 years. It is also found that Kerala’s performance is exceptionally good in terms of LWLE at birth while the lowest LWLE at birth prevails in the state Uttar Pradesh among the males. Female LWLE at birth is highest(lowest) in Kerala(Uttar Pradesh) with 19.73(4.77)years. The corresponding value of the index increases as the number of factors involved in the life expectancy decrease. It is found that women are lagging behind in terms of both literacy and employment. Findings of the study will help the planners to take necessary steps to improve the position of women.

Keywords: life expectancy, literacy, literate life expectancy, working life expectancy

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724 Genetically Modified Fuel-Ethanol Industrial Yeast Strains as Biocontrol Agents

Authors: Patrícia Branco, Catarina Prista, Helena Albergaria

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Industrial fuel-ethanol fermentations are carried out under non-sterile conditions, which favors the development of microbial contaminants, leading to huge economic losses. Wild yeasts such as Brettanomyces bruxellensis and lactic acid bacteria are the main contaminants of industrial bioethanol fermentation, affecting Saccharomyces cerevisiae performance and decreasing ethanol yields and productivity. In order to control microbial contaminations, the fuel-ethanol industry uses different treatments, including acid washing and antibiotics. However, these control measures carry environmental risks such as acid toxicity and the rise of antibiotic-resistant bacteria. Therefore, it is crucial to develop and apply less toxic and more environmentally friendly biocontrol methods. In the present study, an industrial fuel-ethanol starter, S. cerevisiae Ethanol-Red, was genetically modified to over-express AMPs with activity against fuel-ethanol microbial contaminants and evaluated regarding its biocontrol effect during mixed-culture alcoholic fermentations artificially contaminated with B. bruxellensis. To achieve this goal, S. cerevisiae Ethanol-Red strain was transformed with a plasmid containing the AMPs-codifying genes, i.e., partial sequences of TDH1 (925-963 bp) and TDH2/3 (925-963 bp) and a geneticin resistance marker. The biocontrol effect of those genetically modified strains was evaluated against B. bruxellensis and compared with the antagonistic effect exerted by the modified strain with an empty plasmid (without the AMPs-codifying genes) and the non-modified strain S. cerevisiae Ethanol-Red. For that purpose, mixed-culture alcoholic fermentations were performed in a synthetic must use the modified S. cerevisiae Ethanol-Red strains together with B. bruxellensis. Single-culture fermentations of B. bruxellensis strains were also performed as a negative control of the antagonistic effect exerted by S. cerevisiae strains. Results clearly showed an improved biocontrol effect of the genetically-modified strains against B. bruxellensis when compared with the modified Ethanol-Red strain with the empty plasmid (without the AMPs-codifying genes) and with the non-modified Ethanol-Red strain. In mixed-culture fermentation with the modified S. cerevisiae strain, B. bruxellensis culturability decreased from 5×104 CFU/mL on day-0 to less than 1 CFU/mL on day-10, while in single-culture B. bruxellensis increased its culturability from 6×104 to 1×106 CFU/mL in the first 6 days and kept this value until day-10. Besides, the modified Ethanol-Red strain exhibited an enhanced antagonistic effect against B. bruxellensis when compared with that induced by the non-modified Ethanol-Red strain. Indeed, culturability loss of B. bruxellensis after 10 days of fermentation with the modified Ethanol-Red strain was 98.7 and 100% higher than that occurred in fermentations performed with the non-modified Ethanol-Red and the empty-plasmid modified strain, respectively. Therefore, one can conclude that the S. cerevisiae genetically modified strain obtained in the present work may be a valuable solution for the mitigation of microbial contamination in fuel-ethanol fermentations, representing a much safer and environmentally friendly preservation strategy than the antimicrobial treatments (acid washing and antibiotics) currently applied in fuel-ethanol industry.

Keywords: antimicrobial peptides, fuel-ethanol microbial contaminations, fuel-ethanol fermentation, biocontrol agents, genetically-modified yeasts

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723 Determinants of Walking among Middle-Aged and Older Overweight and Obese Adults: Demographic, Health, and Socio-Environmental Factors

Authors: Samuel N. Forjuoh, Marcia G. Ory, Jaewoong Won, Samuel D. Towne, Suojin Wang, Chanam Lee

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The public health burden of obesity is well established as is the influence of physical activity (PA) on the health and wellness of individuals who are obese. This study examined the influence of selected demographic, health, and socioenvironmental factors on the walking behaviors of middle-aged and older overweight and obese adults. Online and paper surveys were administered to community-dwelling overweight and obese adults aged ≥ 50 years residing in four cities in central Texas and seen by a family physician in the primary care clinic from October 2013 to June 2014. Descriptive statistics were used to characterize participants’ anthropometric and demographic data as well as their health conditions and walking, socioenvironmental, and more broadly defined PA behaviors. Then Pearson chi-square tests were used to assess differences between participants who reported walking the recommended ≥ 150 minutes for any purpose in a typical week as a proxy to meeting the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s PA guidelines and those who did not. Finally, logistic regression was used to predict walking the recommended ≥ 150 minutes for any purpose, controlling for covariates. The analysis was conducted in 2016. Of the total sample (n=253, survey response rate of 6.8%), the majority were non-Hispanic white (81.7%), married (74.5%), male (53.5%), and reported an annual household income of ≥ $50,000 (65.7%). Approximately, half were employed (49.6%), or had at least a college degree (51.8%). Slightly more than 1 in 5 (n=57, 22.5%) reported walking the recommended ≥150 minutes for any purpose in a typical week. The strongest predictors of walking the recommended ≥ 150 minutes for any purpose in a typical week in adjusted analysis were related to education and a high favorable perception of the neighborhood environment. Compared to those with a high school diploma or some college, participants with at least a college degree were five times as likely to walk the recommended ≥ 150 minutes for any purpose (OR=5.55, 95% CI=1.79-17.25). Walking the recommended ≥ 150 minutes for any purpose was significantly associated with participants who disagreed that there were many distracted drivers (e.g., on the cell phone while driving) in their neighborhood (OR=4.08, 95% CI=1.47-11.36) and those who agreed that there are sidewalks or protected walkways (e.g., walking trails) in their neighborhood (OR=3.55, 95% CI=1.10-11.49). Those employed were less likely to walk the recommended ≥ 150 minutes for any purpose compared to those unemployed (OR=0.31, 95% CI=0.11-0.85) as were those who reported some difficulty walking for a quarter of a mile (OR=0.19, 95% CI=0.05-0.77). Other socio-environmental factors such as having care-giver responsibilities for elders, someone to walk with, or a dog in the household as well as Walk Score™ were not significantly associated with walking the recommended ≥ 150 minutes for any purpose in a typical week. Neighborhood perception appears to be an important factor associated with the walking behaviors of middle-aged and older overweight and obese individuals. Enhancing the neighborhood environment (e.g., providing walking trails) may promote walking among these individuals.

Keywords: determinants of walking, obesity, older adults, physical activity

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722 Bioflavonoids Derived from Mandarin Processing Wastes: Functional Hydrogels as a Sustainable Food Systems

Authors: Niharika Kaushal, Minni Singh

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Fruit crops are widely cultivated throughout the World, with citrus being one of the most common. Mandarins, oranges, grapefruits, lemons, and limes are among the most frequently grown varieties. Citrus cultivars are industrially processed into juice, resulting in approx. 25-40% by wt. of biomass in the form of peels and seeds, generally considered as waste. In consequence, a significant amount of this nutraceutical-enriched biomass goes to waste, which, if utilized wisely, could revolutionize the functional food industry, as this biomass possesses a wide range of bioactive compounds, mainly within the class of polyphenols and terpenoids, making them an abundant source of functional bioactive. Mandarin is a potential source of bioflavonoids with putative antioxidative properties, and its potential application for developing value-added products is obvious. In this study, ‘kinnow’ mandarin (Citrus nobilis X Citrus deliciosa) biomass was studied for its flavonoid profile. For this, dried and pulverized peels were subjected to green and sustainable extraction techniques, namely, supercritical fluid extraction carried out under conditions pressure: 330 bar, temperature: 40 ̊ C and co-solvent: 10% ethanol. The obtained extract was observed to contain 47.3±1.06 mg/ml rutin equivalents as total flavonoids. Mass spectral analysis revealed the prevalence of polymethoxyflavones (PMFs), chiefly tangeretin and nobiletin. Furthermore, the antioxidant potential was analyzed by the 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH) method, which was estimated to be at an IC₅₀ of 0.55μg/ml. The pre-systemic metabolism of flavonoids limits their functionality, as was observed in this study through in vitro gastrointestinal studies where nearly 50.0% of the flavonoids were degraded within 2 hours of gastric exposure. We proposed nanoencapsulation as a means to overcome this problem, and flavonoids-laden polylactic-co-glycolic acid (PLGA) nano encapsulates were bioengineered using solvent evaporation method, and these were furnished to a particle size between 200-250nm, which exhibited protection of flavonoids in the gastric environment, allowing only 20% to be released in 2h. A further step involved impregnating the nano encapsulates within alginate hydrogels which were fabricated by ionic cross-linking, which would act as delivery vehicles within the gastrointestinal (GI) tract. As a result, 100% protection was achieved from the pre-systemic release of bioflavonoids. These alginate hydrogels had key significant features, i.e., less porosity of nearly 20.0%, and Cryo-SEM (Cryo-scanning electron microscopy) images of the composite corroborate the packing ability of the alginate hydrogel. As a result of this work, it is concluded that the waste can be used to develop functional biomaterials while retaining the functionality of the bioactive itself.

Keywords: bioflavonoids, gastrointestinal, hydrogels, mandarins

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721 Arc Plasma Application for Solid Waste Processing

Authors: Vladimir Messerle, Alfred Mosse, Alexandr Ustimenko, Oleg Lavrichshev

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Hygiene and sanitary study of typical medical-biological waste made in Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus and other countries show that their risk to the environment is much higher than that of most chemical wastes. For example, toxicity of solid waste (SW) containing cytotoxic drugs and antibiotics is comparable to toxicity of radioactive waste of high and medium level activity. This report presents the results of the thermodynamic analysis of thermal processing of SW and experiments at the developed plasma unit for SW processing. Thermodynamic calculations showed that the maximum yield of the synthesis gas at plasma gasification of SW in air and steam mediums is achieved at a temperature of 1600K. At the air plasma gasification of SW high-calorific synthesis gas with a concentration of 82.4% (СO – 31.7%, H2 – 50.7%) can be obtained, and at the steam plasma gasification – with a concentration of 94.5% (СO – 33.6%, H2 – 60.9%). Specific heat of combustion of the synthesis gas produced by air gasification amounts to 14267 kJ/kg, while by steam gasification - 19414 kJ/kg. At the optimal temperature (1600 K), the specific power consumption for air gasification of SW constitutes 1.92 kWh/kg, while for steam gasification - 2.44 kWh/kg. Experimental study was carried out in a plasma reactor. This is device of periodic action. The arc plasma torch of 70 kW electric power is used for SW processing. Consumption of SW was 30 kg/h. Flow of plasma-forming air was 12 kg/h. Under the influence of air plasma flame weight average temperature in the chamber reaches 1800 K. Gaseous products are taken out of the reactor into the flue gas cooling unit, and the condensed products accumulate in the slag formation zone. The cooled gaseous products enter the gas purification unit, after which via gas sampling system is supplied to the analyzer. Ventilation system provides a negative pressure in the reactor up to 10 mm of water column. Condensed products of SW processing are removed from the reactor after its stopping. By the results of experiments on SW plasma gasification the reactor operating conditions were determined, the exhaust gas analysis was performed and the residual carbon content in the slag was determined. Gas analysis showed the following composition of the gas at the exit of gas purification unit, (vol.%): СO – 26.5, H2 – 44.6, N2–28.9. The total concentration of the syngas was 71.1%, which agreed well with the thermodynamic calculations. The discrepancy between experiment and calculation by the yield of the target syngas did not exceed 16%. Specific power consumption for SW gasification in the plasma reactor according to the results of experiments amounted to 2.25 kWh/kg of working substance. No harmful impurities were found in both gas and condensed products of SW plasma gasification. Comparison of experimental results and calculations showed good agreement. Acknowledgement—This work was supported by Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan and Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation (Agreement on grant No. 14.607.21.0118, project RFMEF160715X0118).

Keywords: coal, efficiency, ignition, numerical modeling, plasma-fuel system, plasma generator

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720 Effects of Prescribed Surface Perturbation on NACA 0012 at Low Reynolds Number

Authors: Diego F. Camacho, Cristian J. Mejia, Carlos Duque-Daza

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The recent widespread use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) has fueled a renewed interest in efficiency and performance of airfoils, particularly for applications at low and moderate Reynolds numbers, typical of this kind of vehicles. Most of previous efforts in the aeronautical industry, regarding aerodynamic efficiency, had been focused on high Reynolds numbers applications, typical of commercial airliners and large size aircrafts. However, in order to increase the levels of efficiency and to boost the performance of these UAV, it is necessary to explore new alternatives in terms of airfoil design and application of drag reduction techniques. The objective of the present work is to carry out the analysis and comparison of performance levels between a standard NACA0012 profile against another one featuring a wall protuberance or surface perturbation. A computational model, based on the finite volume method, is employed to evaluate the effect of the presence of geometrical distortions on the wall. The performance evaluation is achieved in terms of variations of drag and lift coefficients for the given profile. In particular, the aerodynamic performance of the new design, i.e. the airfoil with a surface perturbation, is examined under conditions of incompressible and subsonic flow in transient state. The perturbation considered is a shaped protrusion prescribed as a small surface deformation on the top wall of the aerodynamic profile. The ultimate goal by including such a controlled smooth artificial roughness was to alter the turbulent boundary layer. It is shown in the present work that such a modification has a dramatic impact on the aerodynamic characteristics of the airfoil, and if properly adjusted, in a positive way. The computational model was implemented using the unstructured, FVM-based open source C++ platform OpenFOAM. A number of numerical experiments were carried out at Reynolds number 5x104, based on the length of the chord and the free-stream velocity, and angles of attack 6° and 12°. A Large Eddy Simulation (LES) approach was used, together with the dynamic Smagorinsky approach as subgrid scale (SGS) model, in order to account for the effect of the small turbulent scales. The impact of the surface perturbation on the performance of the airfoil is judged in terms of changes in the drag and lift coefficients, as well as in terms of alterations of the main characteristics of the turbulent boundary layer on the upper wall. A dramatic change in the whole performance can be appreciated, including an arguably large level of lift-to-drag coefficient ratio increase for all angles and a size reduction of laminar separation bubble (LSB) for a twelve-angle-of-attack.

Keywords: CFD, LES, Lift-to-drag ratio, LSB, NACA 0012 airfoil

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719 Developing Sustainable Tourism Practices in Communities Adjacent to Mines: An Exploratory Study in South Africa

Authors: Felicite Ann Fairer-Wessels

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There has always been a disparity between mining and tourism mainly due to the socio-economic and environmental impacts of mines on both the adjacent resident communities and the areas taken up by the mining operation. Although heritage mining tourism has been actively and successfully pursued and developed in the UK, largely Wales, and Scandinavian countries, the debate whether active mining and tourism can have a mutually beneficial relationship remains imminent. This pilot study explores the relationship between the ‘to be developed’ future Nokeng Mine and its adjacent community, the rural community of Moloto, will be investigated in terms of whether sustainable tourism and livelihood activities can potentially be developed with the support of the mine. Concepts such as social entrepreneur, corporate social responsibility, sustainable development and triple bottom line are discussed. Within the South African context as a mineral rich developing country, the government has a statutory obligation to empower disenfranchised communities through social and labour plans and policies. All South African mines must preside over a Social and Labour Plan according to the Mineral and Petroleum Resources Development Act, No 28 of 2002. The ‘social’ component refers to the ‘social upliftment’ of communities within or adjacent to any mine; whereas the ‘labour’ component refers to the mine workers sourced from the specific community. A qualitative methodology is followed using the case study as research instrument for the Nokeng Mine and Moloto community with interviews and focus group discussions. The target population comprised of the Moloto Tribal Council members (8 in-depth interviews), the Moloto community members (17: focus groups); and the Nokeng Mine representatives (4 in-depth interviews). In this pilot study two disparate ‘worlds’ are potentially linked: on the one hand, the mine as social entrepreneur that is searching for feasible and sustainable ideas; and on the other hand, the community adjacent to the mine, with potentially sustainable tourism entrepreneurs that can tap into the resources of the mine should their ideas be feasible to build their businesses. Being an exploratory study the findings are limited but indicate that the possible success of tourism and sustainable livelihood activities lies in the fact that both the Mine and Community are keen to work together – the mine in terms of obtaining labour and profit; and the community in terms of improved and sustainable social and economic conditions; with both parties realizing the importance to mitigate negative environmental impacts. In conclusion, a relationship of trust is imperative between a mine and a community before a long term liaison is possible. However whether tourism is a viable solution for the community to engage in is debatable. The community could initially rather pursue the sustainable livelihoods approach and focus on life-supporting activities such as building, gardening, etc. that once established could feed into possible sustainable tourism activities.

Keywords: community development, mining tourism, sustainability, South Africa

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718 Belonging in South Africa: Networks among African Immigrants and South African Natives

Authors: Efe Mary Isike

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The variety of relationships between migrants and host communities is an enduring theme of migration studies. On one extreme, there are numerous examples of hostility towards ‘strangers’ who are either ejected from society or denied access to jobs, housing, education, healthcare and other aspects of normal life. More moderate treatments of those identified as different include expectations of assimilation in which host communities expect socially marginalized groups to conform to norms that they define. Both exclusion and assimilation attempt to manage the problem of difference by removing it. South Africa experienced great influx of African immigrants who worked in mines and farms under harsh and exploitative conditions before and after the institutionalization of apartheid. Although these labour migrants contributed a great deal to the economic development of South Africa, they were not given citizenship status. The formal democratization in 1994 came with dreams and expectations of a more inclusive South Africa, where black South Africans hoped to maximize their potential in a more free, fair and equal society. In the same vein, it also opened spaces for an influx of especially African immigrants into the country which set the stage for a new form of contest for belonging between South African citizens and African migrant settlers. One major manifestation of this contest was the violent xenophobic attacks against African immigrants which predate that of May 2008 and has continued with lower intensity across the country since then. While it is doubtless possible to find abundant evidence of antagonism in the relations between South Africans and African immigrants, the purpose of this study is to investigate the everyday realities of migrants in ordinary places who interact with a variety of people through their livelihood activities, marriages and social relationships, moving around towns and cities, in their residential areas, in faith-based organizations and other elements of everyday life. Rather than assuming all relations are hostile, this study intends to look at the breadth of everyday relationships within a specific context. Based on the foregoing, the main task of this study is to holistically examine and explain the nature of interactions between African migrants and South African citizens by analysing the social network ties that connect them in the specific case of Umhlathuze municipality. It will also investigate the variety of networks that exists between African migrants and South Africans and examine the nature of the linkages in the various networks identified between these two groups in Umhlathuze Municipality. Apart from a review of relevant literature, policies and other official documents, this paper will employ a purposive sample survey and in-depth interview of African immigrants and South Africans within their networks in selected suburbs in KwaZulu-Natal.

Keywords: migration, networks, development, host communities

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717 Upgrading of Bio-Oil by Bio-Pd Catalyst

Authors: Sam Derakhshan Deilami, Iain N. Kings, Lynne E. Macaskie, Brajendra K. Sharma, Anthony V. Bridgwater, Joseph Wood

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This paper reports the application of a bacteria-supported palladium catalyst to the hydrodeoxygenation (HDO) of pyrolysis bio-oil, towards producing an upgraded transport fuel. Biofuels are key to the timely replacement of fossil fuels in order to mitigate the emissions of greenhouse gases and depletion of non-renewable resources. The process is an essential step in the upgrading of bio-oils derived from industrial by-products such as agricultural and forestry wastes, the crude oil from pyrolysis containing a large amount of oxygen that requires to be removed in order to create a fuel resembling fossil-derived hydrocarbons. The bacteria supported catalyst manufacture is a means of utilizing recycled metals and second life bacteria, and the metal can also be easily recovered from the spent catalysts after use. Comparisons are made between bio-Pd, and a conventional activated carbon supported Pd/C catalyst. Bio-oil was produced by fast pyrolysis of beechwood at 500 C at a residence time below 2 seconds, provided by Aston University. 5 wt % BioPd/C was prepared under reducing conditions, exposing cells of E. coli MC4100 to a solution of sodium tetrachloropalladate (Na2PdCl4), followed by rinsing, drying and grinding to form a powder. Pd/C was procured from Sigma-Aldrich. The HDO experiments were carried out in a 100 mL Parr batch autoclave using ~20g bio-crude oil and 0.6 g bio-Pd/C catalyst. Experimental variables investigated for optimization included temperature (160-350C) and reaction times (up to 5 h) at a hydrogen pressure of 100 bar. Most of the experiments resulted in an aqueous phase (~40%) and an organic phase (~50-60%) as well as gas phase (<5%) and coke (<2%). Study of the temperature and time upon the process showed that the degree of deoxygenation increased (from ~20 % up to 60 %) at higher temperatures in the region of 350 C and longer residence times up to 5 h. However minimum viscosity (~0.035 Pa.s) occurred at 250 C and 3 h residence time, indicating that some polymerization of the oil product occurs at the higher temperatures. Bio-Pd showed a similar degree of deoxygenation (~20 %) to Pd/C at lower temperatures of 160 C, but did not rise as steeply with temperature. More coke was formed over bio-Pd/C than Pd/C at temperatures above 250 C, suggesting that bio-Pd/C may be more susceptible to coke formation than Pd/C. Reactions occurring during bio-oil upgrading include catalytic cracking, decarbonylation, decarboxylation, hydrocracking, hydrodeoxygenation and hydrogenation. In conclusion, it was shown that bio-Pd/C displays an acceptable rate of HDO, which increases with residence time and temperature. However some undesirable reactions also occur, leading to a deleterious increase in viscosity at higher temperatures. Comparisons are also drawn with earlier work on the HDO of Chlorella derived bio-oil manufactured from micro-algae via hydrothermal liquefaction. Future work will analyze the kinetics of the reaction and investigate the effect of bi-metallic catalysts.

Keywords: bio-oil, catalyst, palladium, upgrading

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716 A Finite Element Analysis of Hexagonal Double-Arrowhead Auxetic Structure with Enhanced Energy Absorption Characteristics and Stiffness

Authors: Keda Li, Hong Hu

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Auxetic materials, as an emerging artificial designed metamaterial has attracted growing attention due to their promising negative Poisson’s ratio behaviors and tunable properties. The conventional auxetic lattice structures for which the deformation process is governed by a bending-dominated mechanism have faced the limitation of poor mechanical performance for many potential engineering applications. Recently, both load-bearing and energy absorption capabilities have become a crucial consideration in auxetic structure design. This study reports the finite element analysis of a class of hexagonal double-arrowhead auxetic structures with enhanced stiffness and energy absorption performance. The structure design was developed by extending the traditional double-arrowhead honeycomb to a hexagon frame, the stretching-dominated deformation mechanism was determined according to Maxwell’s stability criterion. The finite element (FE) models of 2D lattice structures established with stainless steel material were analyzed in ABAQUS/Standard for predicting in-plane structural deformation mechanism, failure process, and compressive elastic properties. Based on the computational simulation, the parametric analysis was studied to investigate the effect of the structural parameters on Poisson’s ratio and mechanical properties. The geometrical optimization was then implemented to achieve the optimal Poisson’s ratio for the maximum specific energy absorption. In addition, the optimized 2D lattice structure was correspondingly converted into a 3D geometry configuration by using the orthogonally splicing method. The numerical results of 2D and 3D structures under compressive quasi-static loading conditions were compared separately with the traditional double-arrowhead re-entrant honeycomb in terms of specific Young's moduli, Poisson's ratios, and specified energy absorption. As a result, the energy absorption capability and stiffness are significantly reinforced with a wide range of Poisson’s ratio compared to traditional double-arrowhead re-entrant honeycomb. The auxetic behaviors, energy absorption capability, and yield strength of the proposed structure are adjustable with different combinations of joint angle, struts thickness, and the length-width ratio of the representative unit cell. The numerical prediction in this study suggests the proposed concept of hexagonal double-arrowhead structure could be a suitable candidate for the energy absorption applications with a constant request of load-bearing capacity. For future research, experimental analysis is required for the validation of the numerical simulation.

Keywords: auxetic, energy absorption capacity, finite element analysis, negative Poisson's ratio, re-entrant hexagonal honeycomb

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715 The Need for Sustaining Hope during Communication of Unfavourable News in the Care of Children with Palliative Care Needs: The Experience of Mothers and Health Professionals in Jordan

Authors: Maha Atout, Pippa Hemingway, Jane Seymour

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A preliminary systematic review shows that health professionals experience a tension when communicating with the parents and family members of children with life-threatening and life-limiting conditions. On the one hand, they want to promote open and honest communication, while on the other, they are apprehensive about fostering an unrealistic sense of hope. Defining the boundaries between information that might offer reasonable hope versus that which results in false reassurance is challenging. Some healthcare providers worry that instilling a false sense of hope could motivate parents to seek continued aggressive treatment for their child, which in turn might cause the patient further unnecessary suffering. To date, there has been a lack of research in the Middle East regarding how healthcare providers do or should communicate bad news; in particular, the issue of hope in the field of paediatric palliative care has not been researched thoroughly. This study aims to explore, from the perspective of patients’ mothers, physicians, and nurses, the experience of communicating and receiving bad news in the care of children with palliative care needs. Data were collected using a collective qualitative case study approach across three paediatric units in a Jordanian hospital. Two data collection methods were employed: participant observation and semi-structured interviews. The overall number of cases was 15, with a total of 56 interviews with mothers (n=24), physicians (n=12), and nurses (n=20) completed, as well as 197 observational hours logged. The findings demonstrate that mothers wanted their doctors to provide them with hopeful information about the future progression of their child’s illness. Although some mothers asked their doctors to provide them with honest information regarding the condition of their child, they still considered a sense of hope to be essential for coping with caring for their child. According to mothers, hope was critical to treatment as it helped them to stay committed to the treatment and protected them to some extent from the extreme emotional suffering that would occur if they lost hope. The health professionals agreed with the mothers on the importance of hope, so long as it was congruent with the stage and severity of each patient’s disease. The findings of this study conclude that while parents typically insist on knowing all relevant information when their child is diagnosed with a severe illness, they considered hope to be an essential part of life, and they found it very difficult to handle suffering without any glimmer of it. This study finds that using negative terms has extremely adverse effects on the parents’ emotions. Hence, although the mothers asked the doctors to be as honest as they could, they still wanted the physicians to provide them with a positive message by communicating this information in a sensitive manner including hope.

Keywords: health professionals, children, communication, hope, information, mothers, palliative care

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714 Triple Case Phantom Tumor of Lungs

Authors: Angelis P. Barlampas

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Introduction: The term phantom lung mass describes the ovoid collection of fluid within the interlobular fissure, which initially creates the impression of a mass. The problem of correct differential diagnosis is great, especially in plain radiography. A case is presented with three nodular pulmonary foci, the shape, location, and density of which, as well as the presence of chronic loculated pleural effusions, suggest the presence of multiple phantom tumors of the lung. Purpose: The aim of this paper is to draw the attention of non-experienced and non-specialized physicians to the existence of benign findings that mimic pathological conditions and vice versa. The careful study of a radiological examination and the comparison with previous exams or further control protect against quick wrong conclusions. Methods: A hospitalized patient underwent a non-contrast CT scan of the chest as part of the general control of her situation. Results: Computed tomography revealed pleural effusions, some of them loculated, increased cardiothoracic index, as well as the presence of three nodular foci, one in the left lung and two in the right with a maximum density of up to 18 Hounsfield units and a mean diameter of approximately five centimeters. Two of them are located in the characteristical anatomical position of the major interlobular fissure. The third one is located in the area of the right lower lobe’s posterior basal part, and it presents the same characteristics as the previous ones and is likely to be a loculated fluid collection, within an auxiliary interlobular fissure or a cyst, in the context of the patient's more general pleural entrapments and loculations. The differential diagnosis of nodular foci based on their imaging characteristics includes the following: a) rare metastatic foci with low density (liposarcoma, mucous tumors of the digestive or genital system, necrotic metastatic foci, metastatic renal cancer, etc.), b) necrotic multiple primary lung tumor locations (squamous epithelial cancer, etc. ), c) hamartomas of the lung, d) fibrotic tumors of the interlobular fissures, e) lipoid pneumonia, f) fluid concentrations within the interlobular fissures, g) lipoma of the lung, h) myelolipomas of the lung. Conclusions: The collection of fluid within the interlobular fissure of the lung can give the false impression of a lung mass, particularly on plain chest radiography. In the case of computed tomography, the ability to measure the density of a lesion, combined with the provided high anatomical details of the location and characteristics of the lesion, can lead relatively easily to the correct diagnosis. In cases of doubt or image artifacts, comparison with previous or subsequent examinations can resolve any disagreements, while in rare cases, intravenous contrast may be necessary.

Keywords: phantom mass, chest CT, pleural effusion, cancer

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713 Strength Evaluation by Finite Element Analysis of Mesoscale Concrete Models Developed from CT Scan Images of Concrete Cube

Authors: Nirjhar Dhang, S. Vinay Kumar

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Concrete is a non-homogeneous mix of coarse aggregates, sand, cement, air-voids and interfacial transition zone (ITZ) around aggregates. Adoption of these complex structures and material properties in numerical simulation would lead us to better understanding and design of concrete. In this work, the mesoscale model of concrete has been prepared from X-ray computerized tomography (CT) image. These images are converted into computer model and numerically simulated using commercially available finite element software. The mesoscale models are simulated under the influence of compressive displacement. The effect of shape and distribution of aggregates, continuous and discrete ITZ thickness, voids, and variation of mortar strength has been investigated. The CT scan of concrete cube consists of series of two dimensional slices. Total 49 slices are obtained from a cube of 150mm and the interval of slices comes approximately 3mm. In CT scan images, the same cube can be CT scanned in a non-destructive manner and later the compression test can be carried out in a universal testing machine (UTM) for finding its strength. The image processing and extraction of mortar and aggregates from CT scan slices are performed by programming in Python. The digital colour image consists of red, green and blue (RGB) pixels. The conversion of RGB image to black and white image (BW) is carried out, and identification of mesoscale constituents is made by putting value between 0-255. The pixel matrix is created for modeling of mortar, aggregates, and ITZ. Pixels are normalized to 0-9 scale considering the relative strength. Here, zero is assigned to voids, 4-6 for mortar and 7-9 for aggregates. The value between 1-3 identifies boundary between aggregates and mortar. In the next step, triangular and quadrilateral elements for plane stress and plane strain models are generated depending on option given. Properties of materials, boundary conditions, and analysis scheme are specified in this module. The responses like displacement, stresses, and damages are evaluated by ABAQUS importing the input file. This simulation evaluates compressive strengths of 49 slices of the cube. The model is meshed with more than sixty thousand elements. The effect of shape and distribution of aggregates, inclusion of voids and variation of thickness of ITZ layer with relation to load carrying capacity, stress-strain response and strain localizations of concrete have been studied. The plane strain condition carried more load than plane stress condition due to confinement. The CT scan technique can be used to get slices from concrete cores taken from the actual structure, and the digital image processing can be used for finding the shape and contents of aggregates in concrete. This may be further compared with test results of concrete cores and can be used as an important tool for strength evaluation of concrete.

Keywords: concrete, image processing, plane strain, interfacial transition zone

Procedia PDF Downloads 240
712 Integration of Corporate Social Responsibility Criteria in Employee Variable Remuneration Plans

Authors: Jian Wu

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Since a few years, some French companies have integrated CRS (corporate social responsibility) criteria in their variable remuneration plans to ‘restore a good working atmosphere’ and ‘preserve the natural environment’. These CSR criteria are based on concerns on environment protection, social aspects, and corporate governance. In June 2012, a report on this practice has been made jointly by ORSE (which means Observatory on CSR in French) and PricewaterhouseCoopers. Facing this initiative from the business world, we need to examine whether it has a real economic utility. We adopt a theoretical approach for our study. First, we examine the debate between the ‘orthodox’ point of view in economics and the CSR school of thought. The classical economic model asserts that in a capitalist economy, exists a certain ‘invisible hand’ which helps to resolve all problems. When companies seek to maximize their profits, they are also fulfilling, de facto, their duties towards society. As a result, the only social responsibility that firms should have is profit-searching while respecting the minimum legal requirement. However, the CSR school considers that, as long as the economy system is not perfect, there is no ‘invisible hand’ which can arrange all in a good order. This means that we cannot count on any ‘divine force’ which makes corporations responsible regarding to society. Something more needs to be done in addition to firms’ economic and legal obligations. Then, we reply on some financial theories and empirical evident to examine the sound foundation of CSR. Three theories developed in corporate governance can be used. Stakeholder theory tells us that corporations owe a duty to all of their stakeholders including stockholders, employees, clients, suppliers, government, environment, and society. Social contract theory tells us that there are some tacit ‘social contracts’ between a company and society itself. A firm has to respect these contracts if it does not want to be punished in the form of fine, resource constraints, or bad reputation. Legitime theory tells us that corporations have to ‘legitimize’ their actions toward society if they want to continue to operate in good conditions. As regards empirical results, we present a literature review on the relationship between the CSR performance and the financial performance of a firm. We note that, due to difficulties in defining these performances, this relationship remains still ambiguous despite numerous research works realized in the field. Finally, we are curious to know whether the integration of CSR criteria in variable remuneration plans – which is practiced so far in big companies – should be extended to other ones. After investigation, we note that two groups of firms have the greatest need. The first one involves industrial sectors whose activities have a direct impact on the environment, such as petroleum and transport companies. The second one involves companies which are under pressures in terms of return to deal with international competition.

Keywords: corporate social responsibility, corporate governance, variable remuneration, stakeholder theory

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711 Single Centre Retrospective Analysis of MR Imaging in Placenta Accreta Spectrum Disorder with Histopathological Correlation

Authors: Frank Dorrian, Aniket Adhikari

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The placenta accreta spectrum (PAS), which includes placenta accreta, increta, and percreta, is characterized by the abnormal implantation of placental chorionic villi beyond the decidua basalis. Key risk factors include placenta previa, prior cesarean sections, advanced maternal age, uterine surgeries, multiparity, pelvic radiation, and in vitro fertilization (IVF). The incidence of PAS has increased tenfold over the past 50 years, largely due to rising cesarean rates. PAS is associated with significant peripartum and postpartum hemorrhage. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and ultrasound assist in the evaluation of PAS, enabling a multidisciplinary approach to mitigate morbidity and mortality. This study retrospectively analyzed PAS cases at Royal Prince Alfred Hospital, Sydney, Australia. Using the SAR-ESUR joint consensus statement, seven imaging signs were reassessed for their sensitivity and specificity in predicting PAS, with histopathological correlation. The standardized MRI protocols for PAS at the institution were also reviewed. Data were collected from the picture archiving and communication system (PACS) records from 2010 to July 2024, focusing on cases where MR imaging and confirmed histopathology or operative notes were available. This single-center, observational study provides insights into the reliability of MRI for PAS detection and the optimization of imaging protocols for accurate diagnosis. The findings demonstrate that intraplacental dark bands serve as highly sensitive markers for diagnosing PAS, achieving sensitivities of 88.9%, 85.7%, and 100% for placenta accreta, increta, and percreta, respectively, with a combined specificity of 42.9%. Sensitivity for abnormal vascularization was lower (33.3%, 28.6%, and 50%), with a specificity of 57.1%. The placenta bulge exhibited sensitivities of 55.5%, 57.1%, and 100%, with a specificity of 57.1%. Loss of the T2 hypointense interface had sensitivities of 66.6%, 85.7%, and 100%, with 42.9% specificity. Myometrial thinning showed high sensitivity across PAS conditions (88.9%, 71.4%, and 100%) and a specificity of 57.1%. Bladder wall thinning was sensitive only for placenta percreta (50%) but had a specificity of 100%. Focal exophytic mass displayed variable sensitivity (22.9%, 42.9%, and 100%) with a specificity of 85.7%. These results highlight the diagnostic variability among markers, with intraplacental dark bands and myometrial thinning being useful in detecting abnormal placentation, though they lack high specificity. The literature and the results of our study highlight that while no single feature can definitively diagnose PAS, the presence of multiple features -especially when combined with elevated clinical risk- significantly increases the likelihood of an underlying PAS. A thorough understanding of the range of MRI findings associated with PAS, along with awareness of the clinical significance of each sign, helps the radiologist more accurately diagnose the condition and assist in surgical planning, ultimately improving patient care.

Keywords: placenta, accreta, spectrum, MRI

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710 Sustainable Production of Pharmaceutical Compounds Using Plant Cell Culture

Authors: David A. Ullisch, Yantree D. Sankar-Thomas, Stefan Wilke, Thomas Selge, Matthias Pump, Thomas Leibold, Kai Schütte, Gilbert Gorr

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Plants have been considered as a source of natural substances for ages. Secondary metabolites from plants are utilized especially in medical applications but are more and more interesting as cosmetical ingredients and in the field of nutraceuticals. However, supply of compounds from natural harvest can be limited by numerous factors i.e. endangered species, low product content, climate impacts and cost intensive extraction. Especially in the pharmaceutical industry the ability to provide sufficient amounts of product and high quality are additional requirements which in some cases are difficult to fulfill by plant harvest. Whereas in many cases the complexity of secondary metabolites precludes chemical synthesis on a reasonable commercial basis, plant cells contain the biosynthetic pathway – a natural chemical factory – for a given compound. A promising approach for the sustainable production of natural products can be plant cell fermentation (PCF®). A thoroughly accomplished development process comprises the identification of a high producing cell line, optimization of growth and production conditions, the development of a robust and reliable production process and its scale-up. In order to address persistent, long lasting production, development of cryopreservation protocols and generation of working cell banks is another important requirement to be considered. So far the most prominent example using a PCF® process is the production of the anticancer compound paclitaxel. To demonstrate the power of plant suspension cultures here we present three case studies: 1) For more than 17 years Phyton produces paclitaxel at industrial scale i.e. up to 75,000 L in scale. With 60 g/kg dw this fully controlled process which is applied according to GMP results in outstanding high yields. 2) Thapsigargin is another anticancer compound which is currently isolated from seeds of Thapsia garganica. Thapsigargin is a powerful cytotoxin – a SERCA inhibitor – and the precursor for the derivative ADT, the key ingredient of the investigational prodrug Mipsagargin (G-202) which is in several clinical trials. Phyton successfully generated plant cell lines capable to express this compound. Here we present data about the screening for high producing cell lines. 3) The third case study covers ingenol-3-mebutate. This compound is found in the milky sap of the intact plants of the Euphorbiacae family at very low concentrations. Ingenol-3-mebutate is used in Picato® which is approved against actinic keratosis. Generation of cell lines expressing significant amounts of ingenol-3-mebutate is another example underlining the strength of plant cell culture. The authors gratefully acknowledge Inspyr Therapeutics for funding.

Keywords: Ingenol-3-mebutate, plant cell culture, sustainability, thapsigargin

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709 Recent Advances in Research on Carotenoids: From Agrofood Production to Health Outcomes

Authors: Antonio J. Melendez-Martinez

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Beyond their role as natural colorants, some carotenoids are provitamins A and may be involved in health-promoting biological actions and contribute to reducing the risk of developing non-communicable diseases, including several types of cancer, cardiovascular disease, eye conditions, skin disorders or metabolic disorders. Given the versatility of carotenoids, the COST-funded European network to advance carotenoid research and applications in agro-food and health (EUROCAROTEN) is aimed at promoting health through the diet and increasing well-being by means. Stakeholders from 38 countries participate in this network, and one of its main objectives is to promote research on little-studied carotenoids. In this contribution, recent advances of our research group and collaborators in the study of two such understudied carotenoids, namely phytoene and phytofluene, the colorless carotenoids, are outlined. The study of these carotenoids is important as they have been largely neglected despite they are present in our diets, fluids, and tissues, and evidence is accumulating that they may be involved in health-promoting actions. More specifically, studies on their levels in diverse tomato and orange varieties were carried out as well as on their potential bioavailability from different dietary sources. Furthermore, the potential effect of these carotenoids on an animal model subjected to oxidative stress was evaluated. The tomatoes were grown in research greenhouses, and some of them were subjected to regulated deficit irrigation, a sustainable agronomic practice. The citrus samples were obtained from an experimental field. The levels of carotenoids were assessed using HPLC according to routine methodologies followed in our lab. Regarding the potential bioavailability (bioaccessibility) studies, different products containing colorless carotenoids, like fruits, juices, were subjected to simulated in vitro digestions, and their incorporation into mixed micelles was assessed. The effect of the carotenoids on oxidative stress was evaluated on the Caenorhabditis elegans model. For that purpose, the worms were subjected to oxidative stress by means of a hydrogen peroxide challenge. In relation to the presence of colorless carotenoids in tomatoes and orange varieties, it was observed that they are widespread in such products and that there are mutants with very high quantities of them, for instance, the Cara Cara or Pinalate mutant oranges. The studies on their bioaccessibility revealed that, in general, phytoene and phytofluene are more bioaccessible than other common dietary carotenoids, probably due to their distinctive chemical structure. About the in vivo antioxidant capacity of phytoene and phytofluene, it was observed that they both exerted antioxidant effects at certain doses. In conclusion, evidence on the importance of phytoene and phytofluene as dietary easily bioavailable and antioxidant carotenoids has been obtained in recent studies from our group, which can be important shortly to innovate in health-promotion through the development of functional foods and related products.

Keywords: carotenoids, health, functional foods, nutrition, phytoene, phytofluene

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708 Generation of Knowlege with Self-Learning Methods for Ophthalmic Data

Authors: Klaus Peter Scherer, Daniel Knöll, Constantin Rieder

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Problem and Purpose: Intelligent systems are available and helpful to support the human being decision process, especially when complex surgical eye interventions are necessary and must be performed. Normally, such a decision support system consists of a knowledge-based module, which is responsible for the real assistance power, given by an explanation and logical reasoning processes. The interview based acquisition and generation of the complex knowledge itself is very crucial, because there are different correlations between the complex parameters. So, in this project (semi)automated self-learning methods are researched and developed for an enhancement of the quality of such a decision support system. Methods: For ophthalmic data sets of real patients in a hospital, advanced data mining procedures seem to be very helpful. Especially subgroup analysis methods are developed, extended and used to analyze and find out the correlations and conditional dependencies between the structured patient data. After finding causal dependencies, a ranking must be performed for the generation of rule-based representations. For this, anonymous patient data are transformed into a special machine language format. The imported data are used as input for algorithms of conditioned probability methods to calculate the parameter distributions concerning a special given goal parameter. Results: In the field of knowledge discovery advanced methods and applications could be performed to produce operation and patient related correlations. So, new knowledge was generated by finding causal relations between the operational equipment, the medical instances and patient specific history by a dependency ranking process. After transformation in association rules logically based representations were available for the clinical experts to evaluate the new knowledge. The structured data sets take account of about 80 parameters as special characteristic features per patient. For different extended patient groups (100, 300, 500), as well one target value as well multi-target values were set for the subgroup analysis. So the newly generated hypotheses could be interpreted regarding the dependency or independency of patient number. Conclusions: The aim and the advantage of such a semi-automatically self-learning process are the extensions of the knowledge base by finding new parameter correlations. The discovered knowledge is transformed into association rules and serves as rule-based representation of the knowledge in the knowledge base. Even more, than one goal parameter of interest can be considered by the semi-automated learning process. With ranking procedures, the most strong premises and also conjunctive associated conditions can be found to conclude the interested goal parameter. So the knowledge, hidden in structured tables or lists can be extracted as rule-based representation. This is a real assistance power for the communication with the clinical experts.

Keywords: an expert system, knowledge-based support, ophthalmic decision support, self-learning methods

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707 Age-Related Health Problems and Needs of Elderly People Living in Rural Areas in Poland

Authors: Anna Mirczak

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Introduction: In connection with the aging of the population and the increase in the number of people with chronic illnesses, the priority objective for public health has become not only lengthening life, but also improving quality of life in older persons, as well as maintenance of their relative independence and active participation in social life. The most important determinant of a person’s quality of life is health. According to the literature, older people with chronic illness who live in rural settings are at greater risk for poor outcomes than their urban counterparts. Furthermore research characterizes the rural elderly as having a higher incidence of sickness, dysfunction, disability, restricted mobility, and acute and chronic conditions than their urban citizens. It is dictated by the overlapping certain specific socio-economic factors typical for rural areas which include: social and geography exclusion, limited access to health care centers, and low socioeconomic status. Aim of the study: The objective of this study was to recognize health status and needs of older people living in selected rural areas in Poland and evaluate the impacts of working in the farm on their health status. Material and methods: The study was performed personally, using interviews based on the structural questionnaires, during the period from March 2011 to October 2012. The group of respondents consisted 203 people aged 65 years and over living in selected rural areas in Poland. The analysis of collected research material was performed using the statistical package SPSS 19 for Windows. The level of significance for the tested the hypotheses assumed value of 0.05. Results: The mean age of participants was 75,5 years (SD=5,7) range from 65 to 94 years. Most of the interviewees had children (89.2%) and grandchildren (83.7) and lived mainly with family members (75.9%) mostly in double (46.8%) and triple (20.8%) household. The majority of respondents (71,9%) were physical working on the farm. At the time of interview, each of the respondents reported that they had been diagnosed with at least one chronic diseases by their GP. The most common were: hypertension (67,5%), osteoarthritis (44,8%), atherosclerosis (43,3%), cataract (40,4%), arrhythmia (28,6%), diabetes mellitus (19,7%) and stomach or duodenum ulcer diseases (17,2%).The number of diseases occurring of the sample was dependent on gender and age. Significant associations were observed between working on the farm and frequency of occurrence cardiovascular diseases, the gastrointestinal tract dysfunction and sensory disorders. Conclusions: The most common causes of disability among older citizens were: chronic diseases, malnutrition and complaints about access to health services (especially to cardiologist and an ophthalmologist). Health care access and health status are a particular concern in rural areas where the population is older, has lower education and income levels, and is more likely to be living in medically underserved areas than is the case in urban areas.

Keywords: ageing, health status, older people, rural

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706 Continuous Professional Development of Teachers: Implementation Mechanisms in the Republic of Kazakhstan Based on the Professional Standard 'Teacher'

Authors: Yelena Agranovich, Larissa Ageyeva, Aigul Syzdykbayeva, Violetta Tyan

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The modernization of the education system in the Republic of Kazakhstan is aimed at improving the quality of teacher training and enhancing key competencies among teachers. The current professional standard ‘Teacher’ defines the general characteristics of teachers’ activities, key competencies, and criteria according to relevant qualification categories structured on the principle of progression, thereby enabling Continuous Professional Development (CPD). The essence of CPD lies in the constant integration of new knowledge and skills that help teachers adapt to changes in the education system, in technologies, and teaching methods. This developmental process enables teachers to stay updated on recent scientific achievements, innovations, and modern pedagogical practices. Continuous learning helps teachers remain flexible and open to new developments, creating conditions for improving educational quality and fostering students' personal growth. This study aims to address the following objectives: analysis of international CPD practices, identification of conceptual foundations, and investigation of CPD implementation mechanisms in Kazakhstan. The core principles of CPD are identified as longitudinality, systematicity, and fragmentation. CPD implementation is based on various theoretical approaches: axiological, systemic, competency-based, activity-based, and learner-centered. The study analyzes leading models of teacher CPD, with a target sample that includes countries such as Australia, Japan, South Korea, England, Singapore, Sweden, Finland, and Kazakhstan. The research methods include analysis (comparative, historical, content analysis, systematic), case studies of CPD models, and synthesis and systematization of scientific data. As research results, the mechanisms for CPD implementation in Kazakhstan will be identified, along with further perspectives on transforming resources within the teacher professional development system. In comparing CPD models from various countries, it is noted that teacher CPD in the Republic of Kazakhstan: (1) is implemented through educational programs, professional development courses, teacher certification, professional networks, in-school professional development, self-education, and self-assessment; (2) includes the development of pedagogical values and competencies (tolerance, inclusivity, communication, critical thinking, creativity, reflection, etc.); (3) is carried out based on traditional forms (professional development courses, retraining) and informal forms (self-learning, self-development, experience sharing and exchange). Further research will focus on creating a digital ecosystem for teacher CPD, based on an educational platform that facilitates individualized professional development pathways for teachers (competency diagnostics, course selection, and a methodological system of course and post-course support for teachers).

Keywords: continuous professional development, CPD models, professional development, professional upgrading, teacher, teacher training

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705 Content Monetization as a Mark of Media Economy Quality

Authors: Bela Lebedeva

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Characteristics of the Web as a channel of information dissemination - accessibility and openness, interactivity and multimedia news - become wider and cover the audience quickly, positively affecting the perception of content, but blur out the understanding of the journalistic work. As a result audience and advertisers continue migrating to the Internet. Moreover, online targeting allows monetizing not only the audience (as customarily given to traditional media) but also the content and traffic more accurately. While the users identify themselves with the qualitative characteristics of the new market, its actors are formed. Conflict of interests is laid in the base of the economy of their relations, the problem of traffic tax as an example. Meanwhile, content monetization actualizes fiscal interest of the state too. The balance of supply and demand is often violated due to the political risks, particularly in terms of state capitalism, populism and authoritarian methods of governance such social institutions as the media. A unique example of access to journalistic material, limited by monetization of content is a television channel Dozhd' (Rain) in Russian web space. Its liberal-minded audience has a better possibility for discussion. However, the channel could have been much more successful in terms of unlimited free speech. Avoiding state pressure and censorship its management has decided to save at least online performance and monetizing all of the content for the core audience. The study Methodology was primarily based on the analysis of journalistic content, on the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the audience. Reconstructing main events and relationships of actors on the market for the last six years researcher has reached some conclusions. First, under the condition of content monetization the capitalization of its quality will always strive to quality characteristics of user, thereby identifying him. Vice versa, the user's demand generates high-quality journalism. The second conclusion follows the previous one. The growth of technology, information noise, new political challenges, the economy volatility and the cultural paradigm change – all these factors form the content paying model for an individual user. This model defines him as a beneficiary of specific knowledge and indicates the constant balance of supply and demand other conditions being equal. As a result, a new economic quality of information is created. This feature is an indicator of the market as a self-regulated system. Monetized information quality is less popular than that of the Public Broadcasting Service, but this audience is able to make decisions. These very users keep the niche sectors which have more potential of technology development, including the content monetization ways. The third point of the study allows develop it in the discourse of media space liberalization. This cultural phenomenon may open opportunities for the development of social and economic relations architecture both locally and regionally.

Keywords: content monetization, state capitalism, media liberalization, media economy, information quality

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704 Comparison of Gestational Diabetes Influence on the Ultrastructure of Rectus Abdominis Muscle in Women and Rats

Authors: Giovana Vesentini, Fernanda Piculo, Gabriela Marini, Debora Damasceno, Angelica Barbosa, Selma Martheus, Marilza Rudge

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Problem statement: Skeletal muscle is highly adaptable, muscle fiber composition and size can respond to a variety of stimuli, such physiologic, as pregnancy, and metabolic abnormalities, as Diabetes mellitus. This study aimed to analyze the effects of pregnancy-associated diabetes on the rectus abdominis muscle (RA), and to compare this changes in rats and women. Methods: Female Wistar rats were maintained under controlled conditions and distributed in Pregnant (P) and Long-term mild pregnant diabetic (LTMd) (n=3 r/group). Diabetes in rats was induced by streptozotocin (100mg/Kg, sc) on the first day of life, for a hyperglycemic state between 120-300 mg/dL in adult life. Female rats were mated overnight, at day 21 of pregnancy were anesthetized, and killed for the harvesting of maternal RA. Pregnant women who attended the Diabetes Prenatal Care Clinic of Botucatu Medical School were distributed in Pregnant non-diabetic (Pnd) and Gestational Diabetic (GDM) (n=3 w/group). The diagnosis of GDM was established according to ADA’s criteria (2016). The harvesting of RA was during the cesarean section. Transversal cross-sections of the RA of both women and rats were analyzed by transmission electron microscopy. All procedures were approved by the Ethics Committee on Animal Experiments of the Botucatu Medical School (Protocol Number 1003/2013) and by the Botucatu Medical School Ethical Committee for Human Research in Medical Sciences (CAAE: 41570815.0.0000.5411). Results: The photomicrographs of the RA of rats revealed disorganized Z lines, thinning sarcomeres, and a usual quantity of intermyofibrillar mitochondria in the P group. The LTMd group showed swollen sarcoplasmic reticulum, dilated T tubes and areas with sarcomere disruption. The ultrastructural analysis of Pnd non-diabetic women in the RA showed well-organized myofibrils forming intact sarcomeres, organized Z lines and a normal distribution of intermyofibrillar mitochondria. The GDM group revealed increase in intermyofibrillar mitochondria, areas with sarcomere disruption and increased lipid droplets. Conclusion: Pregnancy and diabetes induce adaptations in the ultrastructure of the rectus abdominis muscle for both women and rats, changing the architectural design of these tissues. However, in rats these changes are more severe maybe because, besides the high blood glucose levels, the quadrupedal animal may suffer an excessive mechanical tension during pregnancy by gravity. Probably, these findings may suggest that these alterations are a risk factor that contributes to the development of muscle dysfunction in women with GDM and may motivate treatment strategies in these patients.

Keywords: gestational diabetes, muscle dysfunction, pregnancy, rectus abdominis

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703 Transition Dynamic Analysis of the Urban Disparity in Iran “Case Study: Iran Provinces Center”

Authors: Marzieh Ahmadi, Ruhullah Alikhan Gorgani

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The usual methods of measuring regional inequalities can not reflect the internal changes of the country in terms of their displacement in different development groups, and the indicators of inequalities are not effective in demonstrating the dynamics of the distribution of inequality. For this purpose, this paper examines the dynamics of the urban inertial transport in the country during the period of 2006-2016 using the CIRD multidimensional index and stochastic kernel density method. it firstly selects 25 indicators in five dimensions including macroeconomic conditions, science and innovation, environmental sustainability, human capital and public facilities, and two-stage Principal Component Analysis methodology are developed to create a composite index of inequality. Then, in the second stage, using a nonparametric analytical approach to internal distribution dynamics and a stochastic kernel density method, the convergence hypothesis of the CIRD index of the Iranian provinces center is tested, and then, based on the ergodic density, long-run equilibrium is shown. Also, at this stage, for the purpose of adopting accurate regional policies, the distribution dynamics and process of convergence or divergence of the Iranian provinces for each of the five. According to the results of the first Stage, in 2006 & 2016, the highest level of development is related to Tehran and zahedan is at the lowest level of development. The results show that the central cities of the country are at the highest level of development due to the effects of Tehran's knowledge spillover and the country's lower cities are at the lowest level of development. The main reason for this may be the lack of access to markets in the border provinces. Based on the results of the second stage, which examines the dynamics of regional inequality transmission in the country during 2006-2016, the first year (2006) is not multifaceted and according to the kernel density graph, the CIRD index of about 70% of the cities. The value is between -1.1 and -0.1. The rest of the sequence on the right is distributed at a level higher than -0.1. In the kernel distribution, a convergence process is observed and the graph points to a single peak. Tends to be a small peak at about 3 but the main peak at about-0.6. According to the chart in the final year (2016), the multidimensional pattern remains and there is no mobility in the lower level groups, but at the higher level, the CIRD index accounts for about 45% of the provinces at about -0.4 Take it. That this year clearly faces the twin density pattern, which indicates that the cities tend to be closely related to each other in terms of development, so that the cities are low in terms of development. Also, according to the distribution dynamics results, the provinces of Iran follow the single-density density pattern in 2006 and the double-peak density pattern in 2016 at low and moderate inequality index levels and also in the development index. The country diverges during the years 2006 to 2016.

Keywords: Urban Disparity, CIRD Index, Convergence, Distribution Dynamics, Random Kernel Density

Procedia PDF Downloads 124