Search results for: ontological modelling

Authors: Elizabeth Stojanovski

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Associations between life events and various forms of cancers have been identified. The purpose of a recent random-effects meta-analysis was to identify studies that examined the association between adverse events associated with changes to financial status including decreased income and breast cancer risk. The same association was studied in four separate studies which displayed traits that were not consistent between studies such as the study design, location and time frame. It was of interest to pool information from various studies to help identify characteristics that differentiated study results. Two random-effects Bayesian meta-analysis models are proposed to combine the reported estimates of the described studies. The proposed models allow major sources of variation to be taken into account, including study level characteristics, between study variance, and within study variance and illustrate the ease with which uncertainty can be incorporated using a hierarchical Bayesian modelling approach.

Keywords: random-effects, meta-analysis, Bayesian, variation

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Authors: Matar Celine, Gaucel Sebastien, Gontard Nathalie, Guilbert Stephane, Guillard Valerie

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To increase the very short shelf life of fresh fruits and vegetable, Modified Atmosphere Packaging (MAP) allows an optimal atmosphere composition to be maintained around the product and thus prevent its decay. This technology relies on the modification of internal packaging atmosphere due to equilibrium between production/consumption of gases by the respiring product and gas permeation through the packaging material. While, to the best of our knowledge, benefit of MAP for fresh fruits and vegetable has been widely demonstrated in the literature, its effect on shelf life increase has never been quantified and formalized in a clear and simple manner leading difficult to anticipate its economic and environmental benefit, notably through the decrease of food losses. Mathematical modelling of mass transfers in the food/packaging system is the basis for a better design and dimensioning of the food packaging system. But up to now, existing models did not permit to estimate food quality nor shelf life gain reached by using MAP. However, shelf life prediction is an indispensable prerequisite for quantifying the effect of MAP on food losses reduction. The objective of this work is to propose an innovative approach to predict shelf life of MAP food product and then to link it to a reduction of food losses and wastes. In this purpose, a ‘Virtual MAP modeling tool’ was developed by coupling a new predictive deterioration model (based on visual surface prediction of deterioration encompassing colour, texture and spoilage development) with models of the literature for respiration and permeation. A major input of this modelling tool is the maximal percentage of deterioration (MAD) which was assessed from dedicated consumers’ studies. Strawberries of the variety Charlotte were selected as the model food for its high perishability, high respiration rate; 50-100 ml CO₂/h/kg produced at 20°C, allowing it to be a good representative of challenging post-harvest storage. A value of 13% was determined as a limit of acceptability for the consumers, permitting to define products’ shelf life. The ‘Virtual MAP modeling tool’ was validated in isothermal conditions (5, 10 and 20°C) and in dynamic temperature conditions mimicking commercial post-harvest storage of strawberries. RMSE values were systematically lower than 3% for respectively, O₂, CO₂ and deterioration profiles as a function of time confirming the goodness of model fitting. For the investigated temperature profile, a shelf life gain of 0.33 days was obtained in MAP compared to the conventional storage situation (no MAP condition). Shelf life gain of more than 1 day could be obtained for optimized post-harvest conditions as numerically investigated. Such shelf life gain permitted to anticipate a significant reduction of food losses at the distribution and consumer steps. This food losses' reduction as a function of shelf life gain has been quantified using a dedicated mathematical equation that has been developed for this purpose.

Keywords: food losses and wastes, modified atmosphere packaging, mathematical modeling, shelf life prediction

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Authors: S. A. Che Osmi, W. M. F. W. Ishak, S. F. Che Osmi

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Nowadays the issues of water quality and water pollution have been a major problem across the country. A lot of management attempt to develop their own TMDL database in order to control the river pollution. Over the past decade, the mathematical modeling has been used as the tool for the development of TMDL. This paper presents the application of water quality modeling to develop the total maximum daily load (TMDL) information. To obtain the reliable database of TMDL, the appropriate water quality modeling should choose based on the available data provided. This paper will discuss on the use of several water quality modeling such as QUAL2E, QUAL2K, and EFDC to develop TMDL. The attempts to integrate several modeling are also being discussed in this paper. Based on this paper, the differences in the application of water quality modeling based on their properties such as one, two or three dimensional are showing their ability to develop the modeling of TMDL database.

Keywords: TMDL, water quality modeling, QUAL2E, EFDC

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Authors: Vahidullah Tac, Ercan Gurses

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There have been numerous attempts at modelling carbon nanotube – polymer composites micromechanically in recent years, albeit to limited success. One of the major setbacks of the models used in the scientific community is the lack of regard to the different phases present in a nanocomposite. We employ a multi-phase micromechanical model that allows functionally grading certain phases to determine the mechanical properties of nanocomposites. The model has four distinct phases; the nanotube, the interface between the nanotube and polymer, the interphase, and the bulk matrix. Among the four phases, the interphase is functionally graded such that its moduli gradually decrease from some predetermined values to those of the bulk polymer. We find that the interface plays little role in stiffening/softening of the polymer per se , but instead, it is responsible for load transfer between the polymer and the carbon nanotube. Our results indicate that the carbon nanotube, as well as the interphase, have significant roles in stiffening the composite. The results are then compared to experimental findings and the interphase is tuned accordingly.

Keywords: carbon nanotube, composite, interphase, micromechanical modeling

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Authors: Reneiloe Seodigeng, Malwandla Hanabe, Haleden Chiririwa, Hilary Rutto, Tumisang Seodigeng

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Neutralisation of acid-mine drainage (AMD) using limestone is cost effective, and good results can be obtained. However, this process has its limitations; it cannot be used for highly acidic water which consists of Fe(III). When Fe(III) reacts with CaCO₃, it results in armoring. Armoring slows the reaction, and additional alkalinity can no longer be generated. Limestone is easily accessible, so this problem can be easily dealt with. Experiments were carried out to evaluate the effect of PVC pipe length on ferric and ferrous ions. It was found that the shorter the pipe length the more these dissolved metals precipitate. The effect of the pipe length on the hydrogen ions was also studied, and it was found that these two have an inverse relationship. Experimental data were further compared with the model prediction data to see if they behave in a similar fashion. The model was able to predict the behaviour of 1.5m and 2 m pipes in ferric and ferrous ion precipitation.

Keywords: acid mine drainage, neutralisation, limestone, mathematical modelling

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Authors: Ali Aghazadegan, Ali Shokri, Julia Mullarney

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River confluences are areas where there is a lot of mixing, which is often caused by the formation of shear layers and helical motions. The hydrodynamics of secondary circulation at river confluences with low flow discharge ratios and a 90° junction angle are investigated in this study. The analysis is based on Delft 3D modelling, which includes a three-dimensional time-averaged velocity field, turbulence, and water surface levels that have been validated using laboratory data. Confluence structure was characterized by shear layer, secondary circulation, and mixing at the junction and post confluence channel. This study analysis formation of the shear layer by generation of secondary circulations in variation discharge ratios. The values of streamwise, cross-wise, and vertical components are used to estimate the secondary circulation observed within and downstream of the tributary mouth. These variables are estimated for three horizontal planes at Z = [0.14; 0.07; 0.02] and for eight cross-sections at X = [-0.1; 0.00; 0.10; 0.2; 0.30; 0.4; 0.5; 0.6] within a range of 0.05 Y 0.30.

Keywords: river confluence, shear layer, secondary circulation, hydrodynamics

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Authors: Lu Zhao, Nadir Farhi, Yeltsin Valero, Zoi Christoforou, Nadia Haddadou

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In this paper, a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network model is proposed to replicate simultaneously car-following and lane-changing behaviors in road networks. By combining two kinds of LSTM layers and three input designs of the neural network, six variants of the LSTM model have been created. These models were trained and tested on the NGSIM 101 dataset, and the results were evaluated in terms of longitudinal speed and lateral position, respectively. Then, we compared the LSTM model with a classical car-following model (the intelligent driving model (IDM)) in the part of speed decision. In addition, the LSTM model is compared with a model using classical neural networks. After the comparison, the LSTM model demonstrates higher accuracy than the physical model IDM in terms of car-following behavior and displays better performance with regard to both car-following and lane-changing behavior compared to the classical neural network model.

Keywords: traffic modeling, neural networks, LSTM, car-following, lane-change

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Authors: Sungyani Tripathy, Atul Desai

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Turbo machinery Frame Foundation is very important for power generation, gas, steam, hydro, geothermal and nuclear power plants. The Turbo machinery Foundation system was simulated in SAP: 2000 software and dynamic response of foundation was analysed. In this paper, the detailed study of turbo machinery foundation with different running speed has considered. The different revolution per minute considered in this study is 4000 rpm, 6000 rpm, 8000 rpm, 1000 rpm and 12000 rpm. The above analysis has been carried out considering Winkler spring soil model, solid finite element modelling and dynamic analysis of Turbo machinery foundations. The comparison of frequency and time periods at various mode shapes are addressed in this study. Current work investigates the effect of damping on the response spectra curve at the foundation top deck, considering the dynamic machine load. It has been found that turbo generator foundation with haunches remains more elastic during seismic action for different running speeds.

Keywords: turbo machinery, SAP: 2000, response spectra, running speeds

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Authors: Toushik Maiti, Saibal Chatterjee, Kamaljyoti Gogoi, Arijit Basuray

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Eastern Regional(ER) Grid and North Eastern Regional (NER) Grid are two major grids of Eastern Part of India. Both of the grid consists of voltage level 765kV, 400 kV, 220 kV and numerous buses at lower voltage range. Eastern Regional Grid and North Eastern Regional Grid are not only connected among themselves but are also connected to various other grids of India. ER and NER Grid having various HVDC lines or back to back systems which form the total network. The studied system comprises of 340 buses of different voltage levels and transmission lines running over a length of 32089 km. The validation of load flow has been done using IEEE STANDARD 30 bus system. The power flow simulation analysis has been performed after synchronizing both the Eastern Grid and North-Eastern Regional Grid of India using Power System Simulators for Engineering (PSS®E) Important inferences has been drawn from the study.

Keywords: HVDC, load flow, PSS®E, unsymmetrical and symmetrical faults

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Authors: Khelfaoui Rachid, Chekifi Tawfiq, Dennai Brahim, Maazouzi A. Hak

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A numerical and experimental studies of passive micro drops production have been presented. This paper focuses on the modeling of micro-oscillators systems which are composed by passive amplifier without moving part. The micro-system modeling is based on geometrical oscillators form. An asymmetric micro-oscillator design that is based on a bistable fluidic amplifier is proposed. The characteristic size of the channels is generally about 35 microns of depth. The numerical results indicate that the production and manipulation of microdrops are possible with passive device within a typical oscillators chamber of 2.25 mm diameter and 0.20 mm length when the Reynolds number is Re = 490. The novel micro drops method that is presented in this study provides a simple solution about the production of microdrops problems in micro system. We undertake an experimental step. The first part is based on the realisation of sample oscillator; the second part is consisted of visualization, production and manipulation of microdrops.

Keywords: modelling, miscible, micro drops, production, oscillator sample, capillary

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Authors: Natia Gigauri, Aleksandre Surmava

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According to observational data, experimental measurements, and numerical modeling, is assessed pollution of one of the industrial centers of Georgia, Rustavi city’s atmosphere with microaerosols. Monthly, daily and hourly changes of the concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 in the city atmosphere are analyzed. It is accepted that PM2.5 concentrations are always lower than PM10 concentrations, but their change curve is the same. In addition, it has been noted that the maximum concentrations of particles in the atmosphere of Rustavi city will be reached at any part of the day, which is determined by the total impact of the traffic flow and industrial facilities. By numerical modeling has calculated the influence of background western light air and gentle and fresh breeze on the distribution of PM particles in the atmosphere. Calculations showed that background light air and gentle breeze lead to an increase the concentrations of microaerosols in the city's atmosphere, while fresh breeze contribute to the dispersion of dusty clouds. As a result, the level of dust in the city is decreasing, but the distribution area is expanding.

Keywords: pollution, modelling, PM2.5, PM10, experimental measurement

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Authors: Alberto Alcalá-Alvarez, Pablo Padilla-Longoria

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The present paper describes a framework for constructing mathematical networks encoding relevant musical information from a music score for structural analysis. These graphs englobe statistical information about music elements such as notes, chords, rhythms, intervals, etc., and the relations among them, and so become helpful in visualizing and understanding important stylistic features of a music fragment. In order to build such networks, musical data is parsed out of a digital symbolic music file. This data undergoes different analytical procedures from Graph Theory, such as measuring the centrality of nodes, community detection, and entropy calculation. The resulting networks reflect important structural characteristics of the fragment in question: predominant elements, connectivity between them, and complexity of the information contained in it. Music pieces in different styles are analyzed, and the results are contrasted with the traditional analysis outcome in order to show the consistency and potential utility of this method for music analysis.

Keywords: computational musicology, mathematical music modelling, music analysis, style classification

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Authors: A. Satty, H. Mwambi

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Much clinical trials data-based research are characterized by the unavoidable problem of dropout as a result of missing or erroneous values. This paper aims to review some of the various techniques to address the dropout problems in longitudinal clinical trials. The fundamental concepts of the patterns and mechanisms of dropout are discussed. This study presents five general techniques for handling dropout: (1) Deletion methods; (2) Imputation-based methods; (3) Data augmentation methods; (4) Likelihood-based methods; and (5) MNAR-based methods. Under each technique, several methods that are commonly used to deal with dropout are presented, including a review of the existing literature in which we examine the effectiveness of these methods in the analysis of incomplete data. Two application examples are presented to study the potential strengths or weaknesses of some of the methods under certain dropout mechanisms as well as to assess the sensitivity of the modelling assumptions.

Keywords: incomplete longitudinal clinical trials, missing at random (MAR), imputation, weighting methods, sensitivity analysis

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Authors: Xiaohui Zhao, Shahan Mafuz

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Context-aware technologies provide system applications with the awareness of environmental conditions, customer behaviour, object movements, etc. Further, with such capability system applications can be smart to adapt intelligently their responses to the changing conditions. Concerning business operations, this promises businesses that their business processes can run more intelligently, adaptively and flexibly, and thereby either improve customer experience, enhance reliability of service delivery, or lower operational cost, to make the business more competitive and sustainable. Aiming at realizing such context-aware business process management, this paper firstly explores its potential benefit and then identifies some gaps between the current business process management support and the expected. In addition, some preliminary solutions are also discussed with context definition, rule-based process execution, run-time process evolution, etc. A framework is also presented to give a conceptual architecture of context-aware business process management system to guide system implementation.

Keywords: business process adaptation, business process evolution, business process modelling, and context awareness

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Authors: Emilia Hunt, Sally C. Reynolds, Fiona Coward, Fabio Parracho Silva, Philip Hopley

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Ecological niche modeling is widely used in conservation studies, but application to the extinct hominin species is a relatively new approach. Being able to understand what ecological niches were occupied by respective hominin species provides a new perspective into influences on evolutionary processes. Niche separation or overlap can tell us more about specific requirements of the species within the given timeframe. Many of the ancestral species lived through enormous climate changes: glacial and interglacial periods, changes in rainfall, leading to desertification or flooding of regions and displayed impressive levels of adaptation necessary for their survival. This paper reviews niche modeling methodologies and their application to hominin studies. Traditional conservation methods might not be directly applicable to extinct species and are not comparable to hominins. Hominin niche also includes aspects of technologies, use of fire and extended communication, which are not traditionally used in building conservation models. Future perspectives on how to improve niche modeling for extinct hominin species will be discussed.

Keywords: hominin niche, climate change, evolution, adaptation, ecological niche modelling

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Authors: A. F. Jaber, E. Dean, M. Liu, J. He, D. Sabata, J. Radel

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Background: Stroke is a serious health care concern and a major cause of disability in the United States. This condition impacts the individual’s functional ability to perform daily activities. Predicting functional performance of people with stroke assists health care professionals in optimizing the delivery of health services to the affected individuals. The purpose of this study was to identify significant predictors of Motor FIM and of Cognitive FIM subscores among individuals with stroke after discharge from inpatient rehabilitation (typically 4-6 weeks after stroke onset). A second purpose is to explore the relation among personal characteristics, health status, and functional performance of daily activities within 2 weeks of stroke onset. Methods: This study used a retrospective chart review to conduct a secondary analysis of data obtained from the Healthcare Enterprise Repository for Ontological Narration (HERON) database. The HERON database integrates de-identified clinical data from seven different regional sources including hospital electronic medical record systems of the University of Kansas Health System. The initial HERON data extract encompassed 1192 records and the final sample consisted of 207 participants who were mostly white (74%) males (55%) with a diagnosis of ischemic stroke (77%). The outcome measures collected from HERON included performance scores on the National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), and the Functional Independence Measure (FIM). The data analysis plan included descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation analysis, and Stepwise regression analysis. Results: significant predictors of discharge Motor FIM subscores included age, baseline Motor FIM subscores, discharge NIHSS scores, and comorbid electrolyte disorder (R2 = 0.57, p <0.026). Significant predictors of discharge Cognitive FIM subscores were age, baseline cognitive FIM subscores, client cooperative behavior, comorbid obesity, and the total number of comorbidities (R2 = 0.67, p <0.020). Functional performance on admission was significantly associated with age (p < 0.01), stroke severity (p < 0.01), and length of hospital stay (p < 0.05). Conclusions: our findings show that younger age, good motor and cognitive abilities on admission, mild stroke severity, fewer comorbidities, and positive client attitude all predict favorable functional outcomes after inpatient stroke rehabilitation. This study provides health care professionals with evidence to evaluate predictors of favorable functional outcomes early at stroke rehabilitation, to tailor individualized interventions based on their client’s anticipated prognosis, and to educate clients about the benefits of making lifestyle changes to improve their anticipated rate of functional recovery.

Keywords: functional performance, predictors, stroke, recovery

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Authors: Yichao Liu, Peter Fransson, Julian Heidecke, Jonas Wallin, Joacim Rockloev

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Dengue, a mosquito-borne viral disease, poses a significant public health challenge in endemic tropical or subtropical countries, including Sri Lanka. To reveal insights into the complexity of the dynamics of this disease and study the drivers, a comprehensive model capable of both robust forecasting and insightful inference of drivers while capturing the co-circulating of several virus strains is essential. However, existing studies mostly focus on only one aspect at a time and do not integrate and carry insights across the siloed approach. While mechanistic models are developed to capture immunity dynamics, they are often oversimplified and lack integration of all the diverse drivers of disease transmission. On the other hand, purely data-driven methods lack constraints imposed by immuno-epidemiological processes, making them prone to overfitting and inference bias. This research presents a hybrid model that combines machine learning techniques with mechanistic modelling to overcome the limitations of existing approaches. Leveraging eight years of newly reported dengue case data, along with socioeconomic factors, such as human mobility, weekly climate data from 2011 to 2018, genetic data detecting the introduction and presence of new strains, and estimates of seropositivity for different districts in Sri Lanka, we derive a data-driven vector (SEI) to human (SEIR) model across 16 regions in Sri Lanka at the weekly time scale. By conducting ablation studies, the lag effects allowing delays up to 12 weeks of time-varying climate factors were determined. The model demonstrates superior predictive performance over a pure machine learning approach when considering lead times of 5 and 10 weeks on data withheld from model fitting. It further reveals several interesting interpretable findings of drivers while adjusting for the dynamics and influences of immunity and introduction of a new strain. The study uncovers strong influences of socioeconomic variables: population density, mobility, household income and rural vs. urban population. The study reveals substantial sensitivity to the diurnal temperature range and precipitation, while mean temperature and humidity appear less important in the study location. Additionally, the model indicated sensitivity to vegetation index, both max and average. Predictions on testing data reveal high model accuracy. Overall, this study advances the knowledge of dengue transmission in Sri Lanka and demonstrates the importance of incorporating hybrid modelling techniques to use biologically informed model structures with flexible data-driven estimates of model parameters. The findings show the potential to both inference of drivers in situations of complex disease dynamics and robust forecasting models.

Keywords: compartmental model, climate, dengue, machine learning, social-economic

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Authors: Mohanad Talal Alfach

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This paper concerns the seismic behaviour of soil-piles-bridge reinforced by additional micropiles. The analysis carried out by three-dimensional finite element modelling using the FE software ABAQUS. The soil behaviour is assumed to be elastic with Rayleigh damping, while the micropiles are modeled as 3D elastic beam elements. The bridge deck slab was represented by a concentrated mass at the top of the pier column. The interaction between the added micropiles and the existing piles as well as the performance of the retrofitted soil-pile-superstructure system were investigated for different configurations of additional micropiles (number, position, inclination). Numerical simulation results show that additional micropiles constitute an efficient retrofitting solution. Analysis of results also shows that spacing between existing piles and retrofitting micropiles has little effect; while it is observed a substantial improvement (in case of weak piles/micropiles - soil interface) with reducing the inclination angle of retrofitting micropiles.

Keywords: retrofitting, seismic, finite element, micropiles, elastic

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Authors: Apolinar Picado, Ronald Solís, Rafael Gamero

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The thin-layer drying characteristics of instant coffee solution were investigated in a laboratory tunnel dryer. Drying experiments were carried out at three temperatures (80, 100 and 120 °C) and an air velocity of 1.2 m/s. Drying experimental data obtained are fitted to six (6) thin-layer drying models using the non-linear least squares regression analysis. The acceptability of the thin-layer drying model has been based on a value of the correlation coefficient that should be close to one, and low values for root mean square error (RMSE) and chi-square (x²). According to this evaluation, the most suitable model for describing drying process of thin-layer instant coffee solution is the Page model. Further, the effective moisture diffusivity and the activation energy were computed employing the drying experimental data. The effective moisture diffusivity values varied from 1.6133 × 10⁻⁹ to 1.6224 × 10⁻⁹ m²/s over the temperature range studied and the activation energy was estimated to be 162.62 J/mol.

Keywords: activation energy, diffusivity, instant coffee, thin-layer models

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Authors: Fernando P. Silva, Valter J. S. Leite, Erivelton G. Nepomuceno

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In this paper, a nonlinear controller design for an omnidirectional mobile is presented. The robot controller consists of an inner-loop controller and an outer-loop controller, the first is designed using state feedback (robust allocation) and the second controller is designed based on Robust Multi Inversion (RMI) approach. The objective of RMI controller is rendering the robust inversion of the dynamic, when the model is affected by uncertainties. A model nonlinear MIMO of an omni-directional robot (small-league of Robocup) is used to simulate the RMI approach. The parameters of linear and nonlinear model are varied to cause modelling uncertainties among the model and the real model (real system) generating an error in inner-loop controller signal that must be compensated by RMI controller. The simulation test results show that the RMI is capable of compensating the uncertainties and keep the system stable and controlled under uncertainties.

Keywords: robust multi inversion, omni-directional robot, robocup, nonlinear control

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Authors: T. Zitoun, M. Bouhadef

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When a partially or completely immersed solid moves in a liquid such as water, it undergoes a force called hydrodynamic drag. Reducing this force has always been the objective of hydrodynamic engineers to make water slide better on submerged bodies. This paper deals with the examination of the different terms composing the analytical solution of the flow over an obstacle embedded at the bottom of a hydraulic channel. We have chosen to use a linear method to study a two-dimensional flow over an obstacle, in order to understand the evolution of the drag. We set the following assumptions: incompressible inviscid fluid, irrotational flow, low obstacle height compared to the water height. Those assumptions allow overcoming the difficulties associated with modelling these waves. We will mathematically formulate the equations that allow the determination of the stream function, and then the free surface equation. A similar method is used to determine the exact analytical solution for an obstacle in the shape of a sinusoidal arch.

Keywords: analytical solution, free-surface wave, hydraulic channel, inviscid fluid

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Authors: Cynthia Sau Chun Yip, Richard Fielding

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High meat and especially red meat intakes are significantly and positively associated with a multiple burden of diseases and also high greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study investigated population meat intake patterns in Hong Kong. It quantified the burden of disease and GHG emission outcomes by modeling to adjust Hong Kong population meat intakes to recommended healthy levels. It compared age- and sex-specific population meat, fruit and vegetable intakes obtained from a population survey among adults aged 20 years and over in Hong Kong in 2005-2007, against intake recommendations suggested in the Modelling System to Inform the Revision of the Australian Guide to Healthy Eating (AGHE-2011-MS) technical document. This study found that meat and meat alternatives, especially red meat intakes among Hong Kong males aged 20+ years and over are significantly higher than recommended. Red meat intakes among females aged 50-69 years and other meat and alternatives intakes among aged 20-59 years are also higher than recommended. Taking the 2005-07 age- and sex-specific population meat intake as baselines, three counterfactual scenarios of adjusting Hong Kong adult population meat intakes to AGHE-2011-MS and Pre-2011 AGHE recommendations by the year 2030 were established. Consequent energy intake gaps were substituted with additional legume, fruit and vegetable intakes. To quantify the consequent GHG emission outcomes associated with Hong Kong meat intakes, Cradle-to-ready-to-eat lifecycle assessment emission outcome modelling was used. Comparative risk assessment of burden of disease model was used to quantify the health outcomes. This study found adjusting meat intakes to recommended levels could reduce Hong Kong GHG emission by 17%-44% when compared against baseline meat intake emissions, and prevent 2,519 to 7,012 premature deaths in males and 53 to 1,342 in females, as well as multiple burden of diseases when compared to the baseline meat intake scenario. Comparing lump sum meat intake reduction and outcome measures across the entire population, and using emission factors, and relative risks from individual studies in previous co-benefit studies, this study used age- and sex-specific input and output measures, emission factors and relative risks obtained from high quality meta-analysis and meta-review respectively, and has taken government dietary recommendations into account. Hence evaluations in this study are of better quality and more reflective of real life practices. Further to previous co-benefit studies, this study pinpointed age- and sex-specific population and meat-type-specific intervention points and leverages. When compared with similar studies in Australia, this study also showed that intervention points and leverages among populations in different geographic and cultural background could be different, and that globalization also globalizes meat consumption emission effects. More regional and cultural specific evaluations are recommended to promote more sustainable meat consumption and enhance global food security.

Keywords: burden of diseases, greenhouse gas emissions, Hong Kong diet, sustainable meat consumption

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Authors: M. Karimpour, N. Elkhoury, L. Hitihamillage, S. Moridpour, R. Hesami

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There is a necessity among rail transportation authorities for a superior understanding of the rail track degradation overtime and the factors influencing rail degradation. They need an accurate technique to identify the time when rail tracks fail or need maintenance. In turn, this will help to increase the level of safety and comfort of the passengers and the vehicles as well as improve the cost effectiveness of maintenance activities. An accurate model can play a key role in prediction of the long-term behaviour of railroad tracks. An accurate model can decrease the cost of maintenance. In this research, the rail track degradation is predicted using an autoregressive moving average with exogenous input (ARMAX). An ARMAX has been implemented on Melbourne tram data to estimate the values for the tram track degradation. Gauge values and rail usage in Million Gross Tone (MGT) are the main parameters used in the model. The developed model can accurately predict the future status of the tram tracks.

Keywords: ARMAX, dynamic systems, MGT, prediction, rail degradation

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Authors: Preeti Aghalayam, Jay Shah

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Underground coal gasification (UCG) is the in-situ gasification of unmineable coals to produce syngas. In UCG, gasifying agents are injected into the coal seam, and a reactive cavity is formed due to coal consumption. The cavity formed is typically hemispherical, and this report consists of the MATLAB model of the UCG cavity to predict the composition of the output gases. There are seven radial and two time-variant ODEs. A MATLAB solver (ode15s) is used to solve the radial ODEs from the above equations. Two for-loops are implemented in the model, i.e., one for time variations and another for radial variation. In the time loop, the radial odes are solved using the MATLAB solver. The radial loop is nested inside the time loop, and the density odes are numerically solved using the Euler method. The model is validated by comparing it with the literature results of laboratory-scale experiments. The model predicts the radial and time variation of the product gases inside the cavity.

Keywords: gasification agent, MATLAB model, syngas, underground coal gasification (UCG)

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Authors: Sidi Yang, Haiyi Zhang

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Twitter is a microblogging platform, where millions of users daily share their attitudes, views, and opinions. Using a probabilistic Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) topic model to discern the most popular topics in the Twitter data is an effective way to analyze a large set of tweets to find a set of topics in a computationally efficient manner. Sentiment analysis provides an effective method to show the emotions and sentiments found in each tweet and an efficient way to summarize the results in a manner that is clearly understood. The primary goal of this paper is to explore text mining, extract and analyze useful information from unstructured text using two approaches: LDA topic modelling and sentiment analysis by examining Twitter plain text data in English. These two methods allow people to dig data more effectively and efficiently. LDA topic model and sentiment analysis can also be applied to provide insight views in business and scientific fields.

Keywords: text mining, Twitter, topic model, sentiment analysis

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Authors: Nasser Salah Eldin Mohammed Salih Shebka

Abstract:

Current problematic issues in AI fields are mainly due to those of knowledge representation conceptual theories, which in turn reflected on the entire scope of cognitive sciences. Knowledge representation methods and tools are driven from theoretical concepts regarding human scientific perception of the conception, nature, and process of knowledge acquisition, knowledge engineering and knowledge generation. And although, these theoretical conceptions were themselves driven from the study of the human knowledge representation process and related theories; some essential factors were overlooked or underestimated, thus causing critical methodological deficiencies in the conceptual theories of human knowledge and knowledge representation conceptions. The evaluation criteria of human cumulative knowledge from the perspectives of nature and theoretical aspects of knowledge representation conceptions are affected greatly by the very materialistic nature of cognitive sciences. This nature caused what we define as methodological deficiencies in the nature of theoretical aspects of knowledge representation concepts in AI. These methodological deficiencies are not confined to applications of knowledge representation theories throughout AI fields, but also exceeds to cover the scientific nature of cognitive sciences. The methodological deficiencies we investigated in our work are: - The Segregation between cognitive abilities in knowledge driven models.- Insufficiency of the two-value logic used to represent knowledge particularly on machine language level in relation to the problematic issues of semantics and meaning theories. - Deficient consideration of the parameters of (existence) and (time) in the structure of knowledge. The latter requires that we present a more detailed introduction of the manner in which the meanings of Existence and Time are to be considered in the structure of knowledge. This doesn’t imply that it’s easy to apply in structures of knowledge representation systems, but outlining a deficiency caused by the absence of such essential parameters, can be considered as an attempt to redefine knowledge representation conceptual approaches, or if proven impossible; constructs a perspective on the possibility of simulating human cognition on machines. Furthermore, a redirection of the aforementioned expressions is required in order to formulate the exact meaning under discussion. This redirection of meaning alters the role of Existence and time factors to the Frame Work Environment of knowledge structure; and therefore; knowledge representation conceptual theories. Findings of our work indicate the necessity to differentiate between two comparative concepts when addressing the relation between existence and time parameters, and between that of the structure of human knowledge. The topics presented throughout the paper can also be viewed as an evaluation criterion to determine AI’s capability to achieve its ultimate objectives. Ultimately, we argue some of the implications of our findings that suggests that; although scientific progress may have not reached its peak, or that human scientific evolution has reached a point where it’s not possible to discover evolutionary facts about the human Brain and detailed descriptions of how it represents knowledge, but it simply implies that; unless these methodological deficiencies are properly addressed; the future of AI’s qualitative progress remains questionable.

Keywords: cognitive sciences, knowledge representation, ontological reasoning, temporal logic

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Authors: Alexander Blokhin, Ekaterina Kruglova, Boris Semisalov

Abstract:

Mathematical model based on the mesoscopic theory of polymer dynamics is developed for numerical simulation of the flows of polymeric liquid between two coaxial cylinders. This model is a system of nonlinear partial differential equations written in the cylindrical coordinate system and coupled with the heat conduction equation including a specific dissipation term. The stationary flows similar to classical Poiseuille ones are considered, and the resolving equations for the velocity of flow and for the temperature are obtained. For solving them, a fast pseudospectral method is designed based on Chebyshev approximations, that enables one to simulate the flows through the channels with extremely small relative values of the radius of inner cylinder. The numerical analysis of the dependance of flow on this radius and on the values of dissipation constant is done.

Keywords: dynamics of polymeric liquid, heat dissipation, singularly perturbed problem, pseudospectral method, Chebyshev polynomials, stabilization technique

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Authors: Mohammed Nabeel Khan, C. Perisamy

Abstract:

Convective vortices are normal highlights of air that ingest lower-entropy-energy at higher temperatures than they dismiss higher-entropy-energy to space. By means of the thermodynamic proficiency, it has been anticipated that the force of convective vortices relies upon the profundity of the convective layer. The atmospheric vortex engine is proposed as a gadget for delivering mechanical energy by methods for artificially produced vortex. The task of the engine is in view of the certainties that the environment is warmed from the base and cooled from the top. By generation of the artificial vortex, it is planned to take out the physical solar updraft tower and decrease the capital of the solar chimney power plants. The study shows the essentials of the atmospheric vortex engine, furthermore, audits the cutting edge in subject. Moreover, the study talks about a thought on using the solar energy as heat source to work the framework. All in all, the framework is attainable and promising for electrical power production.

Keywords: AVE, atmospheric vortex engine, atmosphere, updraft, vortex

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Authors: Stuart W. Campbell, Alexander M. Galloway, Norman A. McPherson, Duncan Camilleri, Daniel Micallef

Abstract:

Gas tungsten arc welding requires a gas shield to be present in order to protect the arc area from contamination by atmospheric gases. As a result of each gas having its own unique thermophysical properties, the shielding gas selected can have a major influence on the arc stability, welding speed, weld appearance and geometry, mechanical properties and fume generation. Alternating shielding gases is a relatively new method of discreetly supplying two different shielding gases to the welding region in order to take advantage of the beneficial properties of each gas, as well as the inherent pulsing effects generated. As part of an ongoing process to fully evaluate the effects of this novel supply method, a computational fluid dynamics model has been generated to include the gas dependent thermodynamic and transport properties in order to evaluate the effects that an alternating gas supply has on the arc plasma. Experimental trials have also been conducted to validate the model arc profile predictions.

Keywords: Alternating shielding gases, ANSYS CFX, Gas tungsten arc welding(GTAW), magnetohydrodynamics(MHD)

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Authors: Jessemyn Modiini, Timothy Lynar, Elena Sitnikova

Abstract:

We present a novel enhanced compartmental model for malware spread analysis in cyber security. This paper applies cyber security data features to epidemiological compartmental models to model the infectious potential of malware. Compartmental models are most efficient for calculating the infectious potential of a disease. In this paper, we discuss and profile epidemiologically relevant data features from a Domain Name System (DNS) dataset. We then apply these features to epidemiological compartmental models to network traffic features. This paper demonstrates how epidemiological principles can be applied to the novel analysis of key cybersecurity behaviours and trends and provides insight into threat modelling above that of kill-chain analysis. In applying deterministic compartmental models to a cyber security use case, the authors analyse the deficiencies and provide an enhanced stochastic model for cyber epidemiology. This enhanced compartmental model (SUEICRN model) is contrasted with the traditional SEIR model to demonstrate its efficacy.

Keywords: cybersecurity, epidemiology, cyber epidemiology, malware

Procedia PDF Downloads 91