Search results for: long term care facility

Authors: Ellen Bryant, Virginia Behmer, Rebecca Garbed, Jeanette O’Quin, Dana Howard

Abstract:

As it currently stands, veterinary care in the United States is not accessible to everyone, and veterinarians regularly face cases of clients who are unable to provide necessary care to their animals regardless of the client’s desire to do so. There is currently limited research into how veterinarians address these issues of access to care. It is apparent that veterinarians regularly utilize funding or offer discounted services to treat cases that otherwise would go without care. With need currently exceeding the amount of funds and services available, veterinarians are tasked with deciding which cases are most deserving of assistance. This mixed methods study distributed a survey to companion animal veterinarians practicing in the United States to identify current trends in how these professionals apply principles of distributive justice in the scope of veterinary medicine. Ethical frameworks identified in human bioethics research into distributive justice were presented, along with demographic questions, to identify relationships between veterinarian priorities and the scope of their practice/respective roles/geographic region. By surveying veterinarians across a wide range of specialties, practice types, and clientele this study was able to assess how priorities and opinions shift based on external factors as well as among the respondents themselves. Participants were asked not only to choose how to distribute aid between different clients and case scenarios, but also asked directly which is the best way to distribute aid when need exceeds the resources available.

Keywords: access to veterinary care, bioethics, decision-making, distributive justice, subsidized care

Procedia PDF Downloads 66

Authors: In-Geun Lim, Sung-Woong Ra

Abstract:

As high resolution satellite images can be used, lots of studies are carried out for exploiting these images in various fields. This paper proposes the method based on mathematical morphology for extracting the ‘horse's hoof shaped object’. This proposed method can make an automatic object detection system to track the meaningful object in a large satellite image rapidly. Mathematical morphology process can apply in binary image, so this method is very simple. Therefore this method can easily extract the ‘horse's hoof shaped object’ from any images which have indistinct edges of the tracking object and have different image qualities depending on filming location, filming time, and filming environment. Using the proposed method by which ‘horse's hoof shaped object’ can be rapidly extracted, the performance of the automatic object detection system can be improved dramatically.

Keywords: facility detection, satellite image, object, mathematical morphology

Procedia PDF Downloads 382

Authors: Sarah Crawford, Gerry Lesley

Abstract:

This research is a pre-clinical assessment of anti-cancer effects of novel non-steroidal diethyl stilbestrol-like estrogen analogs in estrogen-receptor positive/ progesterone-receptor positive human breast cancer microtumors of MCF 7 cell line. Tamoxifen analog formulation (Tam A1) was used as a single agent or in combination with therapeutic concentrations of 4-hydroxytamoxifen, currently used as a long-term treatment for the prevention of breast cancer recurrence in women with estrogen receptor positive/ progesterone receptor positive malignancies. At concentrations ranging from 30-50 microM, Tam A1 induced microtumor disaggregation and cell death. Incremental cytotoxic effects correlated with increasing concentrations of Tam A1. Live tumor microscopy showed that microtumos displayed diffuse borders and substrate-attached cells were rounded-up and poorly adherent. A complete cytotoxic effect was observed using 40-50 microM Tam A1 with time course kinetics similar to 4-hydroxytamoxifen. Combined treatment with TamA1 (30-50 microM) and 4-hydroxytamoxifen (10-15 microM) induced a highly cytotoxic, synergistic combined treatment response that was more rapid and complete than using 4-hydroxytamoxifen as a single agent therapeutic. Microtumors completely dispersed or formed necrotic foci indicating a highly cytotoxic combined treatment response. Moreover, breast cancer microtumors treated with both 4-hydroxytamoxifen and Tam A1 displayed lower levels of long-term post-treatment regrowth, a critical parameter of primary drug resistance, than observed for 4-hydroxytamoxifen when used as a single agent therapeutic. Tumor regrowth at 6 weeks post-treatment with either single agent 4-hydroxy tamoxifen, Tam A1 or a combined treatment was assessed for the development of drug resistance. Breast cancer cells treated with both 4-hydroxytamoxifen and Tam A1 displayed significantly lower levels of post-treatment regrowth, indicative of decreased drug resistance, than observed for either single treatment modality. The preclinical data suggest that combined treatment involving the use of tamoxifen analogs may be a novel clinical approach for long-term maintenance therapy in patients with estrogen-receptor positive/progesterone-receptor positive breast cancer receiving hormonal therapy to prevent disease recurrence. Detailed data on time-course, IC50 and tumor regrowth assays post- treatment as well as a proposed mechanism of action to account for observed synergistic drug effects will be presented.

Keywords: 4-hydroxytamoxifen, tamoxifen analog, drug-resistance, microtumors

Procedia PDF Downloads 69

Authors: Ansari Mohammad Reza, Hiroko Ono

Abstract:

In this study, we investigated how much of the urban facilities are fairly distributing in the city of Kabul based on the factor of population. To find the answer to this question we simulated a fair model for the distribution of investigated facilities in the city which is proposed based on the consideration of two factors; the number of users for each facility and the average distance of reach of each facility. Then the model was evaluated to make sure about its efficiency. And finally, the two—the existing pattern and the simulation model—were compared to find the degree of bias in the existing pattern of distribution of facilities in the city. The result of the study clearly clarified that the facilities are not fairly distributed in Kabul city based on the factor of population. Our analysis also revealed that the education services and the parks are the most and the worst fair distributed facilities in this regard.

Keywords: Afghanistan, ArcGIS Software, Kabul City, fair distribution, urban facilities

Procedia PDF Downloads 181

Authors: Kimberly Tasha Jiayi Tang, Changqing Lin, Zhe Wang, Tze-Wai Wong, Md. Shakhaoat Hossain, Jian Yu, Alexis Lau

Abstract:

Hong Kong has practiced a risk-based Air Quality Health Index (AQHI) system that sums hospitalization risks associated with short-term exposure to air pollu-tants. As an air pollution risk communication tool, it informs the public about the current air quality, anchoring around the World Health Organization's (WHO) 2005 Air Quality Guidelines (AQGs). Given the WHO's recent update in 2021, assessing how Hong Kong’s air quality risk communication can be en-hanced using these updated guidelines is essential. Hong Kong’s AQHI is lim-ited by solely focusing on short-term health risks, which could lead the public to underestimate cumulative health impacts. Therefore, we propose the intro-duction of a composite AQHI that reports both long-term and short-term health risks. Additionally, the WHO interim targets will be considered as anchor points for various health risk categories. Furthermore, with the increasing ozone levels in Hong Kong and Southern China due to improved NOx mitigation measures, it has been a challenging task in balancing health protection against climate mitigation. However, our findings present a promising outlook. Despite the rise in ozone levels, the combined health risks in Hong Kong and Guang-dong have seen a decline, largely due to reductions in NO2 and PM concentra-tions, both having significant health implications. By shifting from a concentra-tion-based approach to a health risk-based system like the AQHI, our study highlights the prospective of harmonizing health protection and climate mitiga-tion goals. This health-focused framework suggests that rigorous NOx controls can effective-ly serve both objectives in parallel.

Keywords: air quality management, air quality health index, health risk management, air pollution

Procedia PDF Downloads 75

Authors: Huang Wei-Yi

Abstract:

Objective: This article explores the intensive care nursing experience of a terminal lung cancer patient who received palliative care after tracheal intubation. The patient was nearing death, and the family experienced sadness and grief as they faced the patient’s deteriorating condition and impending death. Methods: The patient was diagnosed with lung cancer in 2018 and received chemotherapy and radiation therapy with regular outpatient follow-ups. Due to brain metastasis and recent poor pain control and treatment outcomes, the patient was admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU), where the tracheal tube was removed, and palliative care was initiated. During the care period, a holistic assessment was conducted, addressing the physical, psychological, social, and spiritual aspects of care. Medical records were reviewed, interviews and family meetings were held, and a comprehensive assessment was carried out by the critical care team in collaboration with the palliative care team. The primary nursing issues identified included pain, ineffective breathing patterns, fear of death, and altered tissue perfusion. Results: Throughout the care process, the palliative care nurse, along with the family, utilized listening, caring, companionship, pain management, essential oil massage, distraction, and comfortable positioning to alleviate the patient’s pain and breathing difficulties. The use of Morphine 6mg in 0.9% N/S 50ml IV drip q6h reduced the FLACC pain score from 6 to 3. The patient’s respiratory rate improved from 28 breaths/min to 18-22 breaths/min, and sleep duration increased from 4 to 7 uninterrupted hours. The holistic palliative care approach, coupled with the involvement of the palliative care team, facilitated expressions of gratitude, apologies, and love between the patient and family. Visiting hours were extended, and with the nurse’s assistance, these moments were recorded and shared with the patient’s consent, providing cherished memories for the family. The patient’s end-of-life experience was thus improved, and the family was able to find peace. This case also served to promote the concept of palliative care, ensuring that more patients and families receive high-quality nursing care. Conclusion: When caring for terminal patients, collaboration with the palliative care team, including social workers, clergy, psychologists, and nutritionists, is essential. Involving the family in decision-making and providing opportunities for closeness and expressions of gratitude improve personalized care and enhance the patient's quality of life. Upon transferring to the ward, the patient’s hemodynamic stability was maintained, including SBP 110-130 mmHg, respiratory rate 20-22 breaths/min, and pain score <3. The patient was later discharged and transitioned to home hospice care for ongoing support.

Keywords: intensive care, lung cancer, palliative care, ICU

Procedia PDF Downloads 29

Authors: Ephraim Ugwu, Christopher Ehinomen

Abstract:

Despite efforts by the Nigerian government to harmonize the macroeconomic policy implementations by establishing various committees to resolve disputes between the fiscal and monetary authorities, it is still evident that the federal government had continued its expansionary policy by increasing spending, thus creating huge budget deficit. This study evaluates the effect of macroeconomic policy coordination on economic growth uncertainty in Nigeria from 1980 to 2020. Employing the Auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound testing procedures, the empirical results shows that the error correction term, ECM(-1), indicates a negative sign and is significant statistically with the t-statistic value of (-5.612882 ). Therefore, the gap between long run equilibrium value and the actual value of the dependent variable is corrected with speed of adjustment equal to 77% yearly. The long run coefficient results showed that the estimated coefficients of the intercept term indicates that other things remains the same (ceteris paribus), the economics growth uncertainty will continue reduce by 7.32%. The coefficient of the fiscal policy variable, PUBEXP, indicates a positive sign and significant statistically. This implies that as the government expenditure increases by 1%, economic growth uncertainty will increase by 1.67%. The coefficient of monetary policy variable MS also indicates a positive sign and insignificant statistically. The coefficients of merchandise trade variable, TRADE and exchange rate EXR show negative signs and significant statistically. This indicate that as the country’s merchandise trade and the rate of exchange increases by 1%, the economic growth uncertainty reduces by 0.38% and 0.06%, respectively. This study, therefore, advocate for proper coordination of monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies in order to actualize the goal of achieving a stable economic growth.

Keywords: macroeconomic, policy coordination, growth uncertainty, ARDL, Nigeria

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: Silvia D. Vaca, Benjamin J. Kuo, Joao Ricardo N. Vissoci, Catherine A. Staton, Linda W. Xu, Michael Muhumuza, Hussein Ssenyonjo, John Mukasa, Joel Kiryabwire, Henry E. Rice, Gerald A. Grant, Michael M. Haglund

Abstract:

Background: While delays to care exist in resource rich settings, greater delays are seen along the care continuum in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) largely due to limited healthcare capacity to address the disproportional rates of traumatic brain injury (TBI) in Sub Saharan Africa (SSA). While many LMICs have government subsidized systems to offset surgical costs, the burden of securing funds by the patients for medications, supplies, and CT diagnostics poses a significant challenge to timely surgical interventions. In Kampala Uganda, the challenge of obtaining timely CT scans is twofold. First, due to a lack of a functional CT scanner at the tertiary hospital, patients need to arrange their own transportation to the nearby private facility for CT scans. Second, self-financing for the private CT scans ranges from $80 - $130, which is near the average monthly income in Kampala. These bottlenecks contribute significantly to the care continuum delays and are associated with poor TBI outcomes. Objective: The objectives of this study are to 1) describe the temporal delays through a modified three delays model that fits the context of neurosurgical interventions for TBI patients in Kampala and 2) investigate the association between delays and mortality. Methods: Prospective data were collected for 563 TBI patients presenting to a tertiary hospital in Kampala from 1 June – 30 November 2016. Four time intervals were constructed along five time points: injury, hospital arrival, neurosurgical evaluation, CT results, and definitive surgery. Time interval differences among mild, moderate and severe TBI and their association with mortality were analyzed. Results: The mortality rate of all TBI patients presenting to MNRH was 9.6%, which ranged from 4.7% for mild and moderate TBI patients receiving surgery to 81.8% for severe TBI patients who failed to receive surgery. The duration from injury to surgery varied considerably across TBI severity with the largest gap seen between mild TBI (174 hours) and severe TBI (69 hours) patients. Further analysis revealed care continuum differences for interval 3 (neurosurgical evaluation to CT result) and 4 (CT result to surgery) between severe TBI patients (7 hours for interval 3 and 24 hours for interval 4) and mild TBI patients (19 hours for interval 3, and 96 hours for interval 4). These post-arrival delays were associated with mortality for mild (p=0.05) and moderate TBI (p=0.03) patients. Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is the first analysis using a modified ‘three delays’ framework to analyze the care continuum of TBI patients in Uganda from injury to surgery. We found significant associations between delays and mortality for mild and moderate TBI patients. As it currently stands, poorer outcomes were observed for these mild and moderate TBI patients who were managed non-operatively or failed to receive surgery while surgical services were shunted to more severely ill patients. While well intentioned, high mortality rates were still observed for the severe TBI patients managed surgically. These results suggest the need for future research to optimize triage practices, understand delay contributors, and improve pre-hospital logistical referral systems.

Keywords: care continuum, global neurosurgery, Kampala Uganda, LMIC, Mulago, prospective registry, traumatic brain injury

Procedia PDF Downloads 348

Authors: Ine Huybrechts, Anja Declercq, Emily Verté, Peter Raeymaeckers, Sibyl Anthierens

Abstract:

Goal-oriented care is a concept gaining increased interest as an approach to go towards more coordinated and integrated primary care. It places patients’ personal life goals at the core of health care support, hereby shifting the focus from “what’s the matter with this patient” to “what matters to this patient.” In Flanders/Belgium, various primary care providers, health and social care organizations and governmental bodies have picked up this concept and have initiated actions to facilitate this approach. The implementation of goal-oriented care not only happens on the micro-level, but it also requires efforts on the meso- and macro-level. Within implementation research, there is a growing recognition that the context in which an intervention takes place strongly relates to its implementation outcomes. However, when investigating contextual variables, the external context and its impact on implementation processes is often overlooked. This study aims to explore how we can better identify and understand the external context and how it relates to the mechanism of change within the implementation process of goal-oriented care in Flanders/Belgium. Results can be used to support and guide initiatives to introduce innovative approaches such as goal-oriented care inside an organization or in the broader primary care landscape. We have conducted qualitative research, performing in-depth interviews with n=23 respondents who have affinity with the implementation of goal-oriented care within their professional function. This lead to in-depth insights from a wide range of actors, with meso-level and/or macro-level perspectives on the implementation of goal-oriented care. This means that we have interviewed actors that are not only involved with initiatives to implement goal-oriented care, but also actors that actively give form to the external context in which goal-oriented care is implemented. Data were collected using a semi-structured interview guide, audio recorded, and analyzed first inductively and then deductively using various theories and concepts that derive from organizational research. Our preliminary findings suggest t Our findings can contribute to further define actions needed for sustainable implementation of goal-oriented primary care. It gives insights in the dynamics between contextual variables and implementation efforts, hereby indicating towards those contextual variables that can be further shaped to facilitate the implementation of an innovation such as goal-oriented care. hat organizational theories can help understand the mechanism of change of implementation processes with a macro-level perspective. Institutional theories, contingency theories, resources dependency theories and others can expose the mechanism of change for an innovation such as goal-oriented care. Our findings can contribute to further define actions needed for sustainable implementation of goal-oriented primary care. It gives insights in the dynamics between contextual variables and implementation efforts, hereby indicating towards those contextual variables that can be further shaped to facilitate the implementation of an innovation such as goal-oriented care.

Keywords: goal-oriented care, implementation processes, organizational theories, person-centered care, implementation research

Procedia PDF Downloads 82

Authors: Fazıl Gökgöz, Fahrettin Filiz

Abstract:

Load forecasting has become crucial in recent years and become popular in forecasting area. Many different power forecasting models have been tried out for this purpose. Electricity load forecasting is necessary for energy policies, healthy and reliable grid systems. Effective power forecasting of renewable energy load leads the decision makers to minimize the costs of electric utilities and power plants. Forecasting tools are required that can be used to predict how much renewable energy can be utilized. The purpose of this study is to explore the effectiveness of LSTM-based neural networks for estimating renewable energy loads. In this study, we present models for predicting renewable energy loads based on deep neural networks, especially the Long Term Memory (LSTM) algorithms. Deep learning allows multiple layers of models to learn representation of data. LSTM algorithms are able to store information for long periods of time. Deep learning models have recently been used to forecast the renewable energy sources such as predicting wind and solar energy power. Historical load and weather information represent the most important variables for the inputs within the power forecasting models. The dataset contained power consumption measurements are gathered between January 2016 and December 2017 with one-hour resolution. Models use publicly available data from the Turkish Renewable Energy Resources Support Mechanism. Forecasting studies have been carried out with these data via deep neural networks approach including LSTM technique for Turkish electricity markets. 432 different models are created by changing layers cell count and dropout. The adaptive moment estimation (ADAM) algorithm is used for training as a gradient-based optimizer instead of SGD (stochastic gradient). ADAM performed better than SGD in terms of faster convergence and lower error rates. Models performance is compared according to MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Squared Error). Best five MAE results out of 432 tested models are 0.66, 0.74, 0.85 and 1.09. The forecasting performance of the proposed LSTM models gives successful results compared to literature searches.

Keywords: deep learning, long short term memory, energy, renewable energy load forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 267

Authors: Khadija Kraiem, Salma Bessadok, Dorra Tabassi, Atef Jaouani

Abstract:

This study investigated the long-term impact of incorporating biowaste (i.e., cork and date stones) as a natural and cost-effective alternative to traditional substrates (e.g., gravel) in constructed wetlands (CWs). Results showed that pollutant removal efficiency was significantly improved after the addition of biowaste under different hydraulic retention time (HRT) conditions. The addition of cork in vertical flow constructed wetlands (VFCWs) improved chemical oxygen demand (COD) removal from 64% to 86%. Similarly, in horizontal flow constructed wetlands (HFCWs), COD removal increased from 67% to 81% with cork and 85% with date seeds. In terms of ammonium removal, cork in VFCWs increased efficiency from 34% to 56%, while in HFCWs, it improved from 24% to 47% with cork and reached 44% with date stones. Furthermore, our data showed that the addition of biowastes improved the removal of micropollutants, such as bisphenol A (BPA) and diclofenac (DFC), with the highest removal of BPA of 86% and DFC of 89% observed in the date seeds wetland. However, no significant changes were observed in pathogens removal. The evaluation of the impact of biowaste addition on the contribution of plant species and its interaction with hydraulic retention time (HRT) was also conducted for pollutant removal. The addition of biowaste resulted in a decrease in the required HRT for effective contaminant elimination, but it had no notable impact on the contribution of plant species. To summarize, our findings indicate that utilizing biowastes in artificial wetlands for the treatment of wastewater with various pollutants can result in synergistic effects, presenting potential benefits in terms of both efficiency and cost-effectiveness.

Keywords: constructed wetlands, cork, date stones, pollutant removal, wastewater

Procedia PDF Downloads 24

Authors: Caio E. G. Reis, Sara Wassell, Adriana L. Porto, Angélica A. Amato, Leslie J. C. Bluck, Teresa H. M. da Costa

Abstract:

Background: Multiple epidemiologic studies have consistently reported association between increased coffee consumption and a lowered risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus. However, the mechanisms behind this finding have not been fully elucidated. Objective: We investigate the effect of coffee (caffeinated and decaffeinated) on glucose effectiveness and insulin sensitivity using the stable isotope minimal model protocol with oral glucose administration in healthy men. Design: Fifteen healthy men underwent 5 arms randomized crossover single-blinding (researchers) clinical trial. They consumed decaffeinated coffee, caffeinated coffee (with and without sugar), and controls – water (with and without sugar) followed 1 hour by an oral glucose tolerance test (75 g of available carbohydrate) with intravenous labeled dosing interpreted by the two compartment minimal model (225 minutes). One-way ANOVA with Bonferroni adjustment were used to compare the effects of the tested beverages on glucose metabolism parameters. Results: Decaffeinated coffee resulted in 29% and 85% higher insulin sensitivity compared with caffeinated coffee and water, respectively, and the caffeinated coffee showed 15% and 60% higher glucose effectiveness compared with decaffeinated coffee and water, respectively. However, these differences were not significant (p > 0.10). In overall analyze (0 – 225 min) there were no significant differences on glucose effectiveness, insulin sensitivity, and glucose and insulin area under the curve between the groups. The beneficial effects of coffee did not seem to act in the short-term (hours) on glucose metabolism parameters mainly on insulin sensitivity indices. The benefits of coffee consumption occur in the long-term (years) as has been shown in the reduction of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus risk in epidemiological studies. The clinical relevance of the present findings is that there is no need to avoid coffee as the drink choice for healthy people. Conclusions: The findings of this study demonstrate that the consumption of caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee with or without sugar has no acute effects on glucose metabolism in healthy men. Further researches, including long-term interventional studies, are needed to fully elucidate the mechanisms behind the coffee effects on reduced risk for Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus.

Keywords: coffee, diabetes mellitus type 2, glucose, insulin

Procedia PDF Downloads 438

Authors: Jiazhi Zeng, Leiyu Shi, Xia Zou, Wen Chen, Li Ling

Abstract:

Background: China is facing the unprecedented challenge of rapidly increasing rural-to-urban migration. Due to the household registration system, migrants are in a vulnerable state when they attempt to access to primary care services. A strong primary care system can reduce health inequities and mitigate socioeconomic disparities in healthcare utilization. Literature indicated that migrants were more reliant on the primary care system than local residents. Although the Chinese government has attached great importance to creating an efficient health system, primary care services are still underutilized. The referral system between primary care institutions and hospitals has not yet been completely established in China. The general populations often go directly to hospitals instead of primary care institutions for their primary care. Primary care institutions generally consist of community health centers (CHCs) and community health stations (CHSs) in urban areas, and township health centers (THCs) and rural health stations (THSs) in rural areas. In addition, primary care services are also provided by the outpatient department of municipal hospitals and tertiary hospitals. A better understanding of migrants’ experiences with primary care in the above-mentioned medical institutions is critical for improving the performance of primary care institutions and providing indications of the attributes that require further attention. The purpose of this pioneering study is to explore rural-to-urban migrants’ experiences in primary care, compare their primary care experiences in four types of medical institutions in Guangzhou, China, and suggest implications for targeted interventions to improve primary care for the migrants. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study conducted with 736 rural-to-urban migrants in Guangzhou, China, in 2014. A multistage sampling method was employed. A validated Chinese version of Primary Care Assessment Tool - Adult Short Version (PCAT-AS) was used to collect information on migrants’ primary care experiences. The PCAT-AS consists of 10 domains. Analysis of covariance was conducted for comparison on PCAT domain scores and total scores among migrants accessing four types of medical institutions. Multiple linear regression models were used to explore factors associated with PCAT total scores. Results: After controlling for socio-demographic characteristics, migrant characteristics, health status and health insurance status, migrants accessing primary care in tertiary hospitals had the highest PCAT total scores when compared with those accessing primary care THCs/ RHSs (25.49 vs. 24.18, P=0.007) and CHCs/ CHSs(25.49 vs. 24.24, P=0.006). There was no statistical significant difference for PCAT total scores between migrants accessing primary care in CHCs/CHSs and those in municipal hospitals (24.24 vs. 25.02, P=0.436). Factors positively associated with higher PCAT total scores also included insurance covering parts of healthcare payment (P < 0.001). Conclusions: This study highlights the need for improvement in primary care provided by primary care institutions for rural-to-urban migrants. Migrants receiving primary care from THCs, RHSs, CHSs and CHSs reported worse primary care experiences than those receiving primary care from tertiary hospitals. Relevant policies related to medical insurance should be implemented for providing affordable healthcare services for migrants accessing primary care. Further research exploring the specific reasons for poorer PCAT scores of primary care institutions users will be needed.

Keywords: China, PCAT, primary care, rural-to-urban migrants

Procedia PDF Downloads 357

Authors: Masoud Swalehe, Semra Günay

Abstract:

Developed countries are losing many lives to non-communicable diseases as compared to their developing counterparts. The effects of these diseases are mostly sudden and manifest at a very short time prior to death or a dangerous attack and this has consolidated the significance of emergency medical system (EMS) as one of the vital areas of healthcare service delivery. The primary objective of this research is to reduce ambulance response times (RT) of Eskişehir province EMS since a number of studies have established a relationship between ambulance response times and survival chances of patients especially out of hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) victims. It has been found out that patients who receive out of hospital medical attention in few (4) minutes after cardiac arrest because of low ambulance response times stand higher chances of survival than their counterparts who take longer times (more than 12 minutes) to receive out of hospital medical care because of higher ambulance response times. The study will make use of geographic information systems (GIS) technology to dynamically reallocate ambulance resources according to demand and time so as to reduce ambulance response times. Geospatial-time distribution of ambulance calls (demand) will be used as a basis for optimal ambulance deployment using system status management (SSM) strategy to achieve much demand coverage with the same number of ambulance resources to cause response time reduction. Drive-time polygons will be used to come up with time specific facility coverage areas and suggesting additional facility candidate sites where ambulance resources can be moved to serve higher demands making use of network analysis techniques. Emergency Ambulance calls’ data from 1st January 2014 to 31st December 2014 obtained from Eskişehir province health directorate will be used in this study. This study will focus on the reduction of ambulance response times which is a key Emergency Medical Services performance indicator.

Keywords: emergency medical services, system status management, ambulance response times, geographic information system, geospatial-time distribution, out of hospital cardiac arrest

Procedia PDF Downloads 301

Authors: Jonathan Turner, Julie Doyle, Laura O’Philbin, Dympna O’Sullivan

Abstract:

People living with dementia should be at the centre of decision-making regarding goals for daily living. These goals include basic activities (dressing, hygiene, and mobility), advanced activities (finances, transportation, and shopping), and meaningful activities that promote well-being (pastimes and intellectual pursuits). However, there is limited involvement of people living with dementia in the design of technology to support their goals. A project is described that is co-designing intelligent computer-based support for, and with, people affected by dementia and their carers. The technology will support self-management, empower participation in shared decision-making with carers and help people living with dementia remain healthy and independent in their homes for longer. It includes information from the patient’s care plan, which documents medications, contacts, and the patient's wishes on end-of-life care. Importantly for this work, the plan can outline activities that should be maintained or worked towards, such as exercise or social contact. The authors discuss how to integrate care goal information from such a care plan with data collected from passive sensors in the patient’s home in order to deliver individualized planning and interventions for persons with dementia. A number of scientific challenges are addressed: First, to co-design with dementia patients and their carers computerized support for shared decision-making about their care while allowing the patient to share the care plan. Second, to develop a new and open monitoring framework with which to configure sensor technologies to collect data about whether goals and actions specified for a person in their care plan are being achieved. This is developed top-down by associating care quality types and metrics elicited from the co-design activities with types of data that can be collected within the home, from passive and active sensors, and from the patient’s feedback collected through a simple co-designed interface. These activities and data will be mapped to appropriate sensors and technological infrastructure with which to collect the data. Third, the application of machine learning models to analyze data collected via the sensing devices in order to investigate whether and to what extent activities outlined via the care plan are being achieved. The models will capture longitudinal data to track disease progression over time; as the disease progresses and captured data show that activities outlined in the care plan are not being achieved, the care plan may recommend alternative activities. Disease progression may also require care changes, and a data-driven approach can capture changes in a condition more quickly and allow care plans to evolve and be updated.

Keywords: care goals, decision-making, dementia, self-care, sensors

Procedia PDF Downloads 172

Authors: Nasim Hashemi, Abbas Sheikhtaheri

Abstract:

Telemedicine is the use of telecommunication and information technologies to provide health care services that would often not be consistently available in distant rural communities to people at these remote areas. Teleophthalmology is a branch of telemedicine that delivers eye care through digital medical equipment and telecommunications technology. Thus, teleophthalmology can overcome geographical barriers and improve quality, access, and affordability of eye health care services. Since teleophthalmology has been widespread applied in recent years, the aim of this study was to determine the different applications of teleophthalmology in the world. To this end, three bibliographic databases (Medline, ScienceDirect, Scopus) were comprehensively searched with these keywords: eye care, eye health care, primary eye care, diagnosis, detection, and screening of different eye diseases in conjunction with telemedicine, telehealth, teleophthalmology, e-services, and information technology. All types of papers were included in the study with no time restriction. We conducted the search strategies until 2015. Finally 70 articles were surveyed. We classified the results based on the’type of eye problems covered’ and ‘the type of telemedicine services’. Based on the review, from the ‘perspective of health care levels’, there are three level for eye health care as primary, secondary and tertiary eye care. From the ‘perspective of eye care services’, the main application of teleophthalmology in primary eye care was related to the diagnosis of different eye diseases such as diabetic retinopathy, macular edema, strabismus and aged related macular degeneration. The main application of teleophthalmology in secondary and tertiary eye care was related to the screening of eye problems i.e. diabetic retinopathy, astigmatism, glaucoma screening. Teleconsultation between health care providers and ophthalmologists and also education and training sessions for patients were other types of teleophthalmology in world. Real time, store–forward and hybrid methods were the main forms of the communication from the perspective of ‘teleophthalmology mode’ which is used based on IT infrastructure between sending and receiving centers. In aspect of specialists, early detection of serious aged-related ophthalmic disease in population, screening of eye disease processes, consultation in an emergency cases and comprehensive eye examination were the most important benefits of teleophthalmology. Cost-effectiveness of teleophthalmology projects resulted from reducing transportation and accommodation cost, access to affordable eye care services and receiving specialist opinions were also the main advantages of teleophthalmology for patients. Teleophthalmology brings valuable secondary and tertiary care to remote areas. So, applying teleophthalmology for detection, treatment and screening purposes and expanding its use in new applications such as eye surgery will be a key tool to promote public health and integrating eye care to primary health care.

Keywords: applications, telehealth, telemedicine, teleophthalmology

Procedia PDF Downloads 375

Authors: Lu Zhao, Nadir Farhi, Yeltsin Valero, Zoi Christoforou, Nadia Haddadou

Abstract:

In this paper, a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network model is proposed to replicate simultaneously car-following and lane-changing behaviors in road networks. By combining two kinds of LSTM layers and three input designs of the neural network, six variants of the LSTM model have been created. These models were trained and tested on the NGSIM 101 dataset, and the results were evaluated in terms of longitudinal speed and lateral position, respectively. Then, we compared the LSTM model with a classical car-following model (the intelligent driving model (IDM)) in the part of speed decision. In addition, the LSTM model is compared with a model using classical neural networks. After the comparison, the LSTM model demonstrates higher accuracy than the physical model IDM in terms of car-following behavior and displays better performance with regard to both car-following and lane-changing behavior compared to the classical neural network model.

Keywords: traffic modeling, neural networks, LSTM, car-following, lane-change

Procedia PDF Downloads 263

Authors: D. I. Yani, S. Isaramalai, C. Kritpracha

Abstract:

Adherence to health behaviors is essential to achieve successful TB treatment. This study aimed to examine the effect of a family-based DOTS support program on adherence to health behaviors in patients with pulmonary TB. Sixty TB patients and their families were selected using cluster randomization of community health centers. The subjects were assigned into a control group, who received the routine care, and an experimental group, who received both routine care and care from the family-based DOTS support program. Paired t-test and the independent t-test were applied. The total score of adherence to health behaviors in the experimental group was significantly higher after receiving care from the family-based DOTS support program than the pretest score (t = -10.34, p < .001). Suggestions were made to expand the application of this program in various contexts and to extend knowledge for nursing practices and research.

Keywords: self-care deficit nursing theory, family-based DOTS program, pulmonary tuberculosis, adherence, health behaviors

Procedia PDF Downloads 465

Authors: Varsha Reddy Jayar

Abstract:

Background: Our elderly family members deserve our best care. It's our responsibility to ensure they're healthy and safe. The population of India is increasing rapidly. People are literally being born in the streets, and there is a high growth on taxes and healthcare costs. Indian families are challenged with taking care of everyone. When you have elderly parents and a demanding job, it can be difficult to take care of them. You might not have enough time to care for them when you're already working or dealing with emotional difficulties. Living alone in old age can cause older individuals to face many health risks. Many seniors find living and caring for themselves challenging when they live by themselves. This study explored the factors that affect whether or not elderly people choose to live in old age homes. Methods: This study was carried out on 123 elderly people living in different old age homes in Karnataka, India. The reason for their residence at the home was explored using an interview. Results: It was found that the most common reason for living in an old age home is due to abuse from children and grandchildren; the majority reported were Daughter in law issues in the family specific to the adjustment and understanding amongst them. Conclusion: More and more elderly people in India are choosing to stay in old age homes as they get older. The government and voluntary agencies must have some sort of arrangements for institutional support.

Keywords: old age home, elderly, Aging, challenges of aging

Procedia PDF Downloads 284

Authors: Hsiao-Lin Fang

Abstract:

Every life is precious, and comprehensive care should be provided to individuals who are in the final stages of their lives. Hospice-shared care aims to provide optimal symptom control and palliative care to terminal (cancer) patients through the implementation of shared care, and to support patients and their families in making various physical and psychological adjustments in the face of death. This report examines a 10-year-boy diagnosed with Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest (OHCA). The individual fainted when swimming at school and underwent 31 minutes of cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR). While receiving treatment at the hospital, the individual received extracorporeal membrane oxygenation(ECMO) due to unstable hemodynamics. Urgent cardiac catheterization found: Suspect acute fulminant myocarditis or underlying cardiomyopathy with acute decompensation, After the active rescue by the medical team, hemodynamics still showed only mean pressure value. With respect to the patient, interdepartmental hospice-shared care was implemented and a do-not-resuscitate (DNR) order was signed after family discussions were conducted. Assistance and instructions were provided as part of the comfort care process. A farewell gathering attended by the patient’s relatives, friends, teachers, and classmates was organized in an intensive care unit (ICU) in order to look back on the patient’s life and the beautiful memories that were created, as well as to alleviate the sorrow felt by family members, including the patient’s father and sister. For example, the patient was presented with drawings and accompanied to a garden to pick flowers. In this manner, the patient was able to say goodbye before death. Finally, the patient’s grandmother and father participated in the clinical hospice care and post-mortem care processes. A hospice-shared care clinician conducted regular follow-ups and provided care to the family of the deceased, supporting family members through the sorrowful period. Birth, old age, sickness, and death are the natural phases of human life. In recent years, growing attention has been paid to human-centered hospice care. Hospice care is individual holistic care provided by a professional team and it involves the provision of comprehensive care to a terminal patient. Hospice care aims to satisfy the physical, psychological, mental, and social needs of patients and their families. It does not involve the cessation of treatment but rather avoids the exacerbation or extension of the suffering endured by patients, thereby preserving the dignity and quality of life during the end-of-life period. Patients enjoy the company of others as they complete the last phase of their lives, and their families also receive guidance on how they can move on with their own lives after the patient’s death.

Keywords: hospice-shared care, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), hospice-shared care, child patient

Procedia PDF Downloads 140

Authors: Ibragim Issabekov, Byron Crape, Lyazzat Toleubekova

Abstract:

Background: Palliative care substantially improves the quality of life of terminally-ill patients. Symptom control is one of the keystones in the management of patients in palliative care settings, lowering distress as well as improving the quality of life of patients with end-stage diseases. The most common symptoms causing significant distress for patients are pain, nausea and vomiting, increased respiratory secretions and mental health issues like depression. Aims are: 1. to identify best practices in symptom management in palliative patients in accordance with internationally approved guidelines and compare aforementioned with actual practices in Kazakhstan; to evaluate the criteria for assessing symptoms in terminally-ill patients, 2. to review the availability and utilization of pharmaceutical agents for pain control, management of excessive respiratory secretions, nausea, and vomiting, and delirium and 3. to develop recommendations for the systematic approach to end-of-life symptom management in Kazakhstan. Methods: The use of qualitative research methods together with systematic literature review have been employed to provide a rigorous research process to evaluate current approaches for symptom management of palliative patients in Kazakhstan. Qualitative methods include in-depth semi-structured interviews of the healthcare professionals involved in palliative care provision. Results: Obstacles were found in appropriate provision of palliative care. Inadequate education and training to manage severe symptoms, poorly defined laws and regulations for palliative care provision, and a lack of algorithms and guidelines for care were major barriers in the effective provision of palliative care. Conclusion: Assessment of palliative care in this medium-income transitional-economy country is one of the first steps in the initiation of integration of palliative care into the existing health system. Achieving this requires identifying obstacles and resolving these issues.

Keywords: end-of-life care, middle income country, palliative care, symptom control

Procedia PDF Downloads 201

Authors: Elizabeth Grier, Meg Gemmill, Mary Martin, Leora Reiter, Herman Tang, Alexandra Donaldson, Isis Lunsky, Mia Wu

Abstract:

Background: Individuals with Cerebral Palsy (CP) and/or IDD face numerous physical and mental health challenges, including difficulty accessing effective palliative care. The aim of this study is to assess the knowledge and comfort of healthcare providers in providing community-based palliative care for patients with Cerebral Palsy (CP) and severe to profound Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities (IDD). Methods: This study includes a mixed methods approach obtaining both quantitative and qualitative data. Quantitative data from palliative care practitioners was obtained through an online survey assessing comfort in symptom management, grief assessment, and goals of care discussion. This survey was distributed to physicians and allied health practitioners across Canada through the College of Family Physicians of Canada Member Interest Groups for Palliative Care and for IDD. Survey results guided the development of a semi-structured interview template, which was used to conduct a focus group on the same topic. Participants were four palliative care providers (3 physicians and one spiritual care practitioner). The focus group transcript is currently undergoing thematic analysis using NVivo 12 software. Results: 57 palliative care practitioners completed the survey. 87% of participants indicated they have provided palliative care services for persons with CP and/or IDD. Findings suggest practitioners are somewhat confident in identifying specific physical symptoms (dyspnea, pressure ulcers) but less confident in identifying physical/emotional pain, addressing grief, and prognosticating life expectancy in this population. 54% of responses indicated they had little/no training on palliating those with CP or IDD, and 45% somewhat or strongly disagree members of their profession can manage symptoms for this population. Focus group analysis is underway, and results will be available at the time of the poster presentation. Conclusion: Persons with CP and IDD are more likely to experience severe health inequities when accessing palliative care. Results of this study suggest further education is needed for palliative care professionals to address the barriers and challenges in providing palliative care to this patient population.

Keywords: palliative care, symptom management, health equity, community healthcare, intellectual and developmental disabilities

Procedia PDF Downloads 144

Authors: Lim Poh Im

Abstract:

This paper examines the current strategic and planning issues in the provision of affordable housing in urban centres in Malaysia from the perspective of sustainability. Sustainability here refers to social sustainability such as the need to address urban poverty and ensure better quality of life; economic sustainability in ensuring that the financial mechanisms are healthy and stable in the long-run, and to a lesser extent, environmental sustainability in reducing pollution related problems and building footprint. The Malaysian affordable housing sector has undergone tremendous transformations since the sixties, transcending from the earlier social housing catering to the poorer strata of the society, to the current state of housing woes plaguing the young urban middle class. The increase in urban land prices and construction costs, coupled with rampant property speculative and manipulative activities have resulted in situations of housing that are largely unaffordable even to the middle income sector of the urban populations. To overcome such scenario, the public as well as private sectors in the recent years, have came up with various intermediate, as well as medium-term policies aimed to curb the burning housing needs of the urban populations. Key strategies include financial intervention in regulating the interests rates, imposing property gain taxes; loosening the requirement for density and other planning requirements, faster approval of projects, compulsory contribution from developers, etc. Some of the policies are commendable, while others are ad-hoc by nature, and are not able to resolve the long-term socio-economic challenges. This paper discusses and examines the issues from the ‘sustainability’ perspective, focusing on key fiscal, land use and planning policies, as well as the more subtle (but important) political and institutional factors shaping the provision of mass housing for the urban populations in Malaysia.

Keywords: affordable housing, urban housing, sustainable housing, planning for urban housing

Procedia PDF Downloads 447

Authors: Jenny Fairthorne, Yuka Mori, Helen Leonard

Abstract:

Background: Primary care-givers of children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) or intellectual disability (ID) have poorer health and quality of life (QoL) than primary care-givers (hereafter referred to as just care-givers) of typically developing children. We aimed to review original research which described factors impacting the health of care-givers of children with ASD or ID and to discuss how these factors might influence care-giver health. Methods: We searched Web of Knowledge, Medline, Scopus and Google Scholar using selections of words from each of three groups. The first comprised terms associated with ASD and ID and included autism, pervasive development disorder, intellectual disability, mental retardation, disability, disabled, Down and Asperger. The second included terms related to health such as depression, physical, mental, psychiatric, psychological and well-being. The third was terms related to care-givers such as mother, parent and care-giver. We included an original paper in our review if it was published between 1st January 1990 and 31st December, 2016, described original research in a peer-reviewed journal and was written in English. Additional criteria were that the research used a study population of 15 persons or more; described a risk or protective factor for the health of care-givers of a child with ASD, ID or a sub-type (such as ASD with ID or Down syndrome). Using previous research, we developed a simple and objective five-level tool to assess the strength of evidence provided by the reviewed papers. Results: We retained 33 papers. Factors impacting primary care-giver health included child behaviour, level of support, socio-economic status (SES) and diagnostic issues. Challenging child behaviour, the most commonly identified risk factor for poorer care-giver health and QoL was reported in ten of the studies. A higher level of support was associated with improved care-giver health and QoL. For example, substantial evidence indicated that family support reduced care-giver burden in families with a child with ASD and that family and neighbourhood support was associated with improved care-giver mental health. Higher socio-economic status (SES) was a protective factor for care-giver health and particularly maternal health. Diagnostic uncertainty and an unclear prognosis are factors which can cause the greatest concern to care-givers of children with ASD and those for whom a cause of their child’s ID has not been identified. We explain how each of these factors might impact caregiver health and how they might act differentially in care-givers of children with different types of ASD or ID (such as Down syndrome and ASD without ID). Conclusion: Care-givers of children with ASD may be more likely to experience many risk factors and less likely to experience the protective factors we identified for poorer mental health. Interventions to reduce risk factors and increase protective factors could pave the way for improved care-giver health. For example, workshops to train care-givers to better manage challenging child behaviours and earlier diagnosis of ASD (and particularly ASD without ID) would seem likely to improve care-giver well-being. Similarly, helping to expand support networks might reduce care-giver burden and stress leading to improved health.

Keywords: autism, caregivers, health, intellectual disability, mothers, review

Procedia PDF Downloads 162

Authors: Omer Ibrahim Abdallh Omer

Abstract:

Cancer patients often face complex medication regimens, leading to challenges in treatment adherence and clinical outcomes. Pharmacist-led medication therapy management (MTM) has emerged as a potential solution to optimize medication use and improve patient outcomes in oncology settings. In this prospective intervention study, we aimed to evaluate the impact of pharmacist-led MTM on treatment adherence and clinical outcomes among cancer patients. Participants were randomized to receive either pharmacist-led MTM or standard care, with assessments conducted at baseline and follow-up visits. Pharmacist interventions included medication reconciliation, adherence counseling, and personalized care plans. Our findings reveal that pharmacist-led MTM significantly improved medication adherence rates and clinical outcomes compared to standard care. Patients receiving pharmacist interventions reported higher satisfaction levels and perceived value in pharmacist involvement in their cancer care. These results underscore the critical role of pharmacists in optimizing medication therapy and enhancing patient-centered care in oncology settings. Integration of pharmacist-led MTM into routine cancer care pathways holds promise for improving treatment outcomes and quality of life for cancer patients.

Keywords: cancer, medications adherence, medication therapy management, pharmacist

Procedia PDF Downloads 64

Authors: Camille Alexis-Garsee, Nicola Payne

Abstract:

One consequence of the pandemic has been the debilitating health impact that some people experience over a longer period of time, known as long-COVID. This has been predominately researched in adults; however, there is emerging evidence on the effects of long-COVID in children. Research has indicated over half of children who contracted COVID-19 experienced persistent symptoms four months after a confirmed diagnosis. There is little research on the impact of this on children and their families. This study aimed to explore the experiences of children with long-COVID, to enable further understanding of the impacts and needs within this group. Semi-structured interviews, facilitated by children’s drawings, were conducted with 15 children (aged 9-16, 9 females). Inductive thematic analysis was used to analyze the data. The findings tell a story of loss, change and of resilience. Many children were unable to engage in normal daily activities and were unable to attend school, however, all employed self-management techniques to cope with symptoms and were positive for the future. Four main themes were identified: (1) Education challenges: although some schools tried to accommodate the child’s new limitations with provision of flexi-attendance, online classes and a reduced timetable, children struggled to keep up with their schoolwork and needed more support; (2) Disrupted relationships: children felt socially isolated; they were forced to give up co and extra-curricular activities, were no longer in contact with friendship groups and missed out on key experiences with friends and family; (3) Diverse health-related challenges: children’s symptoms affected daily functioning but were also triggers for changes in thoughts and mood; (4) Coping and resilience: children actively engaged in symptom management and were able to ‘self-pace’ and/or employ distraction activities to cope. They were also focused on living a ‘normal’ life and looked to the future with great positivity. A key challenge of the long-term effects of COVID is recognizing and treating the illness in children and the subsequent impact on multiple aspects of their lives. Even though children described feeling disconnected in many ways, their life goals were still important. A multi-faceted approach is needed for management of this illness, with a focus on helping these children successfully reintegrate into society and achieve their dreams.

Keywords: children’s illness experience, COVID-19, long-COVID in children, long-COVID kids, qualitative research

Procedia PDF Downloads 67

Authors: Farhia Hassan Mohamed

Abstract:

This study examined the macroeconomic factors that affect the inflation Rate in Somalia using quarterly time series data from 1991q1 to 2017q4 retired from World Development Indicators and SESRIC. It employed the vector error correction model (VECM) and Granger Causality method to measure the long-run and short-run causality of the GDP, inflation exchange rate, and unemployment. The study confirmed that there is one cointegration equation between GDP, exchange rate, inflation, and unemployment in Somalia. However, the VECM model's result indicates a long-run relationship among variables. The VEC Granger causality/Block Exogeneity Wald test result confirmed that all covariates are statistically significant at 5% and are Granger's cause of inflation in the short term. Finally, the impulse response result showed that inflation responds negatively to the shocks from the exchange rate and unemployment rate and positively to GDP and itself. Drawing from the empirical findings, the study makes several policy recommendations for both the monetary and Government sides.

Keywords: CPI, OP, exchange rate, inflation ADF, Johansen, PP, VECM, impulse, ECT

Procedia PDF Downloads 49

Authors: Jadon Matthiasa, Cindy Donga, Ali Al Jibouria, Hsin Kuo

Abstract:

The environmental impact of emissions from the Covanta Waste-to-Energy facility in Burnaby, BC, was comprehensively evaluated, focusing on the dispersion of air pollutants and the subsequent assessment of heavy metal contamination in surrounding soils. A Gaussian Plume Model, implemented in MATLAB, was utilized to simulate the dispersion of key pollutants to understand their atmospheric behaviour and potential deposition patterns. The MATLAB code developed for this study enhanced the accuracy of pollutant concentration predictions and provided capabilities for visualizing pollutant dispersion in 3D plots. Furthermore, the code could predict the maximum concentration of pollutants at ground level, eliminating the need to use the Ranchoux model for predictions. Complementing the modelling approach, empirical soil sampling and analysis were conducted to evaluate heavy metal concentrations in the vicinity of the facility. This integrated methodology underscored the importance of computational modelling in air pollution assessment and highlighted the necessity of soil analysis to obtain a holistic understanding of environmental impacts. The findings emphasized the effectiveness of current emissions controls while advocating for ongoing monitoring to safeguard public health and environmental integrity.

Keywords: air emissions, Gaussian Plume Model, MATLAB, soil contamination, air pollution monitoring, waste-to-energy, pollutant dispersion visualization, heavy metal analysis, environmental impact assessment, emission control effectiveness

Procedia PDF Downloads 20

Authors: Koryukaeva Ksenia, Jinfeng Sun

Abstract:

Europe has been a traditional importer of Russian natural gas for more than 50 years. In 2021, Russian state-owned company Gazprom supplied about a third of all gas consumed in Europe. The Russia-Europe mutual dependence in terms of natural gas supplies has been causing many concerns about the energy security of the two sides for a long period of time. These days the issue has become more urgent than ever considering recent Russian invasion in Ukraine followed by increased large-scale geopolitical conflicts, making the future of Russian natural gas supplies and global gas markets as well highly uncertain. Hence, the main purpose of this study is to get insight into the possible futures of Russian pipeline natural gas exports by a scenario planning method based on Monte-Carlo simulation within LUSS model framework, and propose Russian pipeline natural gas export strategies based on the obtained scenario planning results. The scenario analysis revealed that recent geopolitical disputes disturbed the traditional, longstanding model of Russian pipeline gas exports, and, as a result, the prospects and the pathways for Russian pipeline gas on the world markets will differ significantly from those before 2022. Specifically, our main findings show, that (i) the events of 2022 generated many uncertainties for the long-term future of Russian pipeline gas export perspectives on both western and eastern supply directions, including geopolitical, regulatory, economic, infrastructure and other uncertainties; (ii) according to scenario modelling results, Russian pipeline exports will face many challenges in the future, both on western and eastern directions. A decrease in pipeline gas exports will inevitably affect country’s natural gas production and significantly reduce fossil fuel export revenues, jeopardizing the energy security of the country; (iii) according to proposed strategies, in order to ensure the long-term stable export supplies in the changing environment, Russia may need to adjust its traditional export strategy by performing export flows and product diversification, entering new markets, adapting its contracting mechanism, increasing competitiveness and gaining a reputation of a reliable gas supplier.

Keywords: Russian natural gas, Pipeline natural gas, Uncertainty, Scenario simulation, Export strategy

Procedia PDF Downloads 61

Authors: Wiseman Emmanuel Nkhomah, Chiyembekezo Kachimanga, Julia Huggins, Fabien Munyaneza

Abstract:

Background: Partners In Health – Malawi introduced one of Operational Researches called Primary Health Care (PHC) Surveys in 2020, which seeks to assess progress of delivery of care in the district. The study consists of 5 long surveys, namely; Facility assessment, General Patient, Provider, Sick Child, Antenatal Care (ANC), primarily conducted in 4 health facilities in Neno district. These facilities include Neno district hospital, Dambe health centre, Chifunga and Matope. Usually, these annual surveys are conducted from January, and the target is to present final report by June. Once data is collected and analyzed, there are a series of reviews that take place before reaching final report. In the first place, the manual process took over 9 months to present final report. Initial findings reported about 76.9% of the data that added up when cross-checked with paper-based sources. Purpose: The aim of this approach is to run away from manually pulling the data, do fresh analysis, and reporting often associated not only with delays in reporting inconsistencies but also with poor quality of data if not done carefully. This automation approach was meant to utilize features of new technologies to create visualizations, reports, and dashboards in Power BI that are directly fished from the data source – CommCare hence only require a single click of a ‘refresh’ button to have the updated information populated in visualizations, reports, and dashboards at once. Methodology: We transformed paper-based questionnaires into electronic using CommCare mobile application. We further connected CommCare Mobile App directly to Power BI using Application Program Interface (API) connection as data pipeline. This provided chance to create visualizations, reports, and dashboards in Power BI. Contrary to the process of manually collecting data in paper-based questionnaires, entering them in ordinary spreadsheets, and conducting analysis every time when preparing for reporting, the team utilized CommCare and Microsoft Power BI technologies. We utilized validations and logics in CommCare to capture data with less errors. We utilized Power BI features to host the reports online by publishing them as cloud-computing process. We switched from sharing ordinary report files to sharing the link to potential recipients hence giving them freedom to dig deep into extra findings within Power BI dashboards and also freedom to export to any formats of their choice. Results: This data automation approach reduced research timelines from the initial 9 months’ duration to 5. It also improved the quality of the data findings from the original 76.9% to 98.9%. This brought confidence to draw conclusions from the findings that help in decision-making and gave opportunities for further researches. Conclusion: These results suggest that automating the research data process has the potential of reducing overall amount of time spent and improving the quality of the data. On this basis, the concept of data automation should be taken into serious consideration when conducting operational research for efficiency and decision-making.

Keywords: reporting, decision-making, power BI, commcare, data automation, visualizations, dashboards

Procedia PDF Downloads 118