Search results for: evolution equation

Authors: Faisal Nouroz, Mukaramin Mukaramin

Abstract:

Of the transposable elements (TEs), the retrotransposons are the most copious elements identified from many sequenced genomes. They have played a major role in genome evolution, rearrangement, and expansions based on their copy and paste mode of proliferation. They are further divided into LTR and Non-LTR retrotransposons. The purpose of the current study was to identify the LTR REs in sequenced Phoenix dactylifera genome and to study their structural diversity. A total of 150 P. dactylifera BAC sequences with > 60kb sizes were randomly retrieved from National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI) database and screened for the presence of LTR retrotransposons. Seven bacterial artificial chromosomes (BAC) sequences showed full-length LTR Retrotransposons with 4 Copia and 3 Gypsy families having variable copy numbers in respective families. Reverse transcriptase (RT) domain was found as the most conserved domain among Copia and Gypsy superfamilies and was used to deduce evolutionary analysis. The amino acid residues among various RT sequences showed variability in their percentages indicating post divergence evolution. Amino acid Leucine was found in highest proportions followed by Lysine, while Methionine and Tryptophan were in lowest percentages. The phylogenetic analysis based on RT domains confirmed that although having most conserved RT regions, several evolutionary events occurred causing nucleotide polymorphisms and hence clustering of Gypsy and Copia superfamilies into their respective lineages. The study will be helpful in identification and annotation of these elements in other species and genera and their distribution patterns on chromosomes by fluorescent in situ hybridization techniques.

Keywords: transposable elements, Phoenix dactylifera, retrotransposons, phylogenetic analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 127

Authors: Ramin Mansouri

Abstract:

Due to the contrast of rivers discharge regime with water demands, one of the best ways to use water resources is to regulate the natural flow of the rivers and supplying water needs to construct dams. Optimal utilization of reservoirs, consideration of multiple important goals together at the same is of very high importance. To study about analyzing this method, statistical data of Bakhtiari and Roudbar dam over 46 years (1955 until 2001) is used. Initially an appropriate objective function was specified and using DE algorithm, the rule curve was developed. In continue, operation policy using rule curves was compared to standard comparative operation policy. The proposed method distributed the lack to the whole year and lowest damage was inflicted to the system. The standard deviation of monthly shortfall of each year with the proposed algorithm was less deviated than the other two methods. The Results show that median values for the coefficients of F and Cr provide the optimum situation and cause DE algorithm not to be trapped in local optimum. The most optimal answer for coefficients are 0.6 and 0.5 for F and Cr coefficients, respectively. After finding the best combination of coefficients values F and CR, algorithms for solving the independent populations were examined. For this purpose, the population of 4, 25, 50, 100, 500 and 1000 members were studied in two generations (G=50 and 100). result indicates that the generation number 200 is suitable for optimizing. The increase in time per the number of population has almost a linear trend, which indicates the effect of population in the runtime algorithm. Hence specifying suitable population to obtain an optimal results is very important. Standard operation policy had better reversibility percentage, but inflicts severe vulnerability to the system. The results obtained in years of low rainfall had very good results compared to other comparative methods.

Keywords: reservoirs, differential evolution, dam, Optimal operation

Procedia PDF Downloads 76

Authors: Ohud Alharbi, Emily Baines

Abstract:

The animation industry is one of the creative industries that have attracted recent historiographical attention. However, there has been very limited research on Saudi Arabian and wider Arabian animation industries, while there are a large number of studies that have covered this issue for North America, Europe and East Asia. The existing studies show that developed countries such as USA, Japan and the UK have reached the Maturity stage in their animation industry life-cycle. On the other hand, developing countries that are still in the Introduction phase of the industry life-cycle face challenges to improve their industry. Saudi Arabia is one of the countries whose animation industry is still in its infancy. Thus, the aim of this paper is to address the main barriers that hinder the evolution of the industry life-cycle for Saudi animation – challenges that are also relevant to many other early stage industries in developing countries. These barriers have been analysed using the early mobility barriers defined by Porter, to provide a conceptual structure for defining recommendations to enable the transition to a strong Growth phase industry. This study utilized qualitative methods to collect data, which involved in-depth interviews, document analysis and observations. It also undertook a comparative case study approach to investigate the animation industry life-cycle, with three selected case studies that have a more developed industry than Saudi animation. Case studies include: the United Kingdom, which represents a Mature animation industry; Egypt, which represents an established Growth stage industry; and the United Arab of Emirates, which is an early Growth stage industry. This study suggests adopting appropriate strategies that arise as findings from the comparative case studies, to overcome barriers and facilitate the growth of the Saudi animation industry.

Keywords: barriers, industry life-cycle, Saudi animation, industry

Procedia PDF Downloads 576

Authors: Kwan U Kim, Jin Sim, Ryong Jin Jang, Sung Duk Kim

Abstract:

108 years have passed since a great number of physicists explained astronomical and physical phenomena by solving geodesic equations in the Schwarzschild metric. However, when solving the geodesic equations in Schwarzschild metric, they did not correctly solve one branch of the component of space among spatial and temporal components of four-dimensional force and did not come up with physical laws correctly by means of physical analysis from the results obtained by solving the geodesic equations. In addition, they did not treat the astronomical and physical phenomena in a physical way based on the correct physical laws obtained from the solution of the geodesic equations in the Schwarzschild metric. Therefore, some former scholars mentioned that Einstein’s theoretical basis of a general theory of relativity was obscure and incorrect, but they did not give a correct physical solution to the problems. Furthermore, since the general theory of relativity has not given a quantitative solution to obscure and incorrect problems, the generalization of gravitational theory has not yet been successfully completed, although former scholars have thought of it and tried to do it. In order to solve the problems, it is necessary to explore the obscure and incorrect problems in a general theory of relativity based on the physical laws and to find out the methodology for solving the problems. Therefore, as the first step toward achieving this purpose, the right solution of the geodesic equation in the Schwarzschild metric has been presented. Next, the correct physical laws found by making a physical analysis of the results have been presented, the obscure and incorrect problems have been shown, and an analysis of them has been made based on the physical laws. In addition, the experimental verification of the physical laws found by us has been made.

Keywords: equivalence principle, general relativity, geometrodynamics, Schwarzschild, Poincaré

Procedia PDF Downloads 11

Authors: J.R.S.S. Kumara, M.A.R.M. Fernando, S.Venkatesh, D.K. Jayaratne

Abstract:

Protection of heritage monuments against lightning has become extremely important as far as their historical values are concerned. When such structures are large and tall, the risk of lightning initiated from both cloud and ground can be high. This paper presents a lightning risk analysis of three giant stupas in Anuradhapura era (fourth century BC onwards) in Sri Lanka. The three stupas are Jethawaaramaya (269-296 AD), Abayagiriya (88-76 BC) and Ruwanweliseya (161-137 BC), the third, fifth and seventh largest ancient structures in the world. These stupas are solid brick structures consisting of a base, a near hemispherical dome and a conical spire on the top. The ancient stupas constructed with a dielectric crystal on the top and connected to the ground through a conducting material, was considered as the hypothesis for their original lightning protection technique. However, at present, all three stupas are protected with Franklin rod type air termination systems located on top of the spire. First, a risk analysis was carried out according to IEC 62305 by considering the isokeraunic level of the area and the height of the stupas. Then the standard protective angle method and rolling sphere method were used to locate the possible touching points on the surface of the stupas. The study was extended to estimate the critical current which could strike on the unprotected areas of the stupas. The equations proposed by (Uman 2001) and (Cooray2007) were used to find the striking distances. A modified version of rolling sphere method was also applied to see the effects of upward leaders. All these studies were carried out for two scenarios: with original (i.e. ancient) lightning protection system and with present (i.e. new) air termination system. The field distribution on the surface of the stupa in the presence of a downward leader was obtained using finite element based commercial software COMSOL Multiphysics for further investigations of lightning risks. The obtained results were analyzed and compared each other to evaluate the performance of ancient and new lightning protection methods and identify suitable methods to design lightning protection systems for stupas. According to IEC standards, all three stupas with new and ancient lightning protection system has Level IV protection as per protection angle method. However according to rolling sphere method applied with Uman’s equation protection level is III. The same method applied with Cooray’s equation always shows a high risk with respect to Uman’s equation. It was found that there is a risk of lightning strikes on the dome and square chamber of the stupa, and the corresponding critical current values were different with respect to the equations used in the rolling sphere method and modified rolling sphere method.

Keywords: Stupa, heritage, lightning protection, rolling sphere method, protection level

Procedia PDF Downloads 250

Authors: L. K. Nivedha, V. Maruthapandian, R. Kothandaraman

Abstract:

Rechargeable zinc-air batteries (ZAB) are gaining significant research attention owing to their high energy density and copious zinc resources worldwide. However, the unsolved obstacles such as dendrites, passivation, depth of discharge and the lack of an efficient cathode catalyst restrict their practical application1. By and large, non-noble transition metal-based catalysts are well-reputed materials for catalysing oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) and oxygen evolution reaction (OER) with greater stability in alkaline medium2. Herein, we report the synthesis and application of Mn₃O4-NiFeLDH/Carbon composite as a cathode catalyst for rechargeable ZAB. The synergetic effects of the mixed transition metals (Mn/Ni/Fe) have aided in catalysing ORR and OER in alkaline electrolyte with a shallow potential gap of 0.7 V. The composite, by its distinctive physicochemical characteristics, shows an excellent OER activity with a current density of 1.5 mA cm⁻² at a potential of 1.6 V and a superior ORR activity with an onset potential of 0.8 V when compared with their counterparts. Nevertheless, the catalyst prefers a two-electron pathway for the electrochemical reduction of oxygen which results in a limiting current density of 2.5 mA cm⁻². The bifunctional activity of the Mn₃O₄-NiFeLDH/Carbon composite was utilized in developing rechargeable ZAB. The fully fabricated ZAB delivers an open circuit voltage of 1.4 V, a peak power density of 70 mW cm⁻², and a specific capacity of 800 mAh g⁻¹ at a current density of 20 mA cm⁻² with an average discharge voltage of 1 V and the cell is operable upto 50 mA cm-2. Rechargeable ZAB demonstrated over 110 h at 10 mA cm⁻². Further, the cause for the diminished charge-discharge performance experienced beyond the 100th cycle was investigated, and carbon corrosion was testified using Infrared spectroscopy.

Keywords: rechargeable zinc-air battery, oxygen evolution reaction, bifunctional catalyst, alkaline medium

Procedia PDF Downloads 78

Authors: Sara Sallam, Mohamed Taqi, Naoual Belouaggadia

Abstract:

Solar thermal power plants using parabolic trough collectors (PTC) are currently a powerful technology for generating electricity. Most of these solar power plants use thermal oils as heat transfer fluid. The latter is heated in the solar field and transfers the heat absorbed in an oil-water heat exchanger for the production of steam driving the turbines of the power plant. Currently, we are seeking to develop PTCs with direct steam generation (DSG). This process consists of circulating water under pressure in the receiver tube to generate steam directly into the solar loop. This makes it possible to reduce the investment and maintenance costs of the PTCs (the oil-water exchangers are removed) and to avoid the environmental risks associated with the use of thermal oils. The pressure drops in these systems are an important parameter to ensure their proper operation. The determination of these losses is complex because of the presence of the two phases, and most often we limit ourselves to describing them by models using empirical correlations. A comparison of these models with experimental data was performed. Our calculations focused on the evolution of the pressure of the liquid-vapor mixture along the receiver tube of a PTC-DSG for pressure values and inlet flow rates ranging respectively from 3 to 10 MPa, and from 0.4 to 0.6 kg/s. The comparison of the numerical results with experience allows us to demonstrate the validity of some models according to the pressures and the flow rates of entry in the PTC-DSG receiver tube. The analysis of these two parameters’ effects on the evolution of the pressure along the receiving tub, shows that the increase of the inlet pressure and the decrease of the flow rate lead to minimal pressure losses.

Keywords: direct steam generation, parabolic trough collectors, Ppressure drop, empirical models

Procedia PDF Downloads 138

Authors: Karla Cautivo, Thomas Riley, Daniel Knight

Abstract:

Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is the most common cause of infectious diarrhea in hospitalised humans. C. difficile colonises the gastrointestinal tract, causes disease in a variety of animal species and can persist as a spore in diverse environments. Genetic overlap between C. difficile strains from human, animal and environmental sources suggests CDI has a zoonotic or foodborne aetiology. In Australia, C. difficile PCR ribotype RT014 (MLST clade 1) and several ST11 (MLST clade 5) RTs are found commonly in livestock. The high prevalence and diversity of ST11 strains in Australian production animals indicates Australia might be the ancestral home for this lineage. This project describes for the first time the ecology of C. difficile in Australian native animals, providing insights into the prevalence, molecular epidemiology and evolution of C. difficile in this unique environment and a possible role in CDI in humans and animals in Australia. Faecal samples were collected from wild/captive reptiles (n=37), mammals (n=104) and birds (n=102) in Western Australia in 2020/21. Anaerobic enrichment culture was performed, and C. difficile isolates were characterised by PCR ribotyping and toxin gene profiling. Seventy isolates of C. difficile were recovered (prevalence of C. difficile in faecal samples 28%, n=68/243); 27 unique RTs were identified, 5 were novel. The prevalence of C. difficile was similar for reptiles and mammals, 46% (n=17/37) and 43%(n=45/104), respectively, but significantly lower in birds (7.8%, n=8/102; p<0.00001 for both reptiles and mammals). Of the 57 isolates available for typing, RT237 (clade 5) and RT002 (clade 2) were the most prevalent, 15.8% (n=9/57) and 14% (n=8/57), respectively. The high prevalence of C. difficile in reptiles and mammals, particularly clade 5 strains, supported by previous studies of C. difficile in Australian soils, suggest that Australia might be the ancestral home of MLST clade 5.

Keywords: Clostridium difficile, zoonosis, molecular epidemiology, ecology and evolution

Procedia PDF Downloads 207

Authors: H. Khanfari, M. Johari Fard

Abstract:

Dealing with carbonate reservoirs can be mind-boggling for the reservoir engineers due to various digenetic processes that cause a variety of properties through the reservoir. A good estimation of the reservoir heterogeneity which is defined as the quality of variation in rock properties with location in a reservoir or formation, can better help modeling the reservoir and thus can offer better understanding of the behavior of that reservoir. Most of reservoirs are heterogeneous formations whose mineralogy, organic content, natural fractures, and other properties vary from place to place. Over years, reservoir engineers have tried to establish methods to describe the heterogeneity, because heterogeneity is important in modeling the reservoir flow and in well testing. Geological methods are used to describe the variations in the rock properties because of the similarities of environments in which different beds have deposited in. To illustrate the heterogeneity of a reservoir vertically, two methods are generally used in petroleum work: Dykstra-Parsons permeability variations (V) and Lorenz coefficient (L) that are reviewed briefly in this paper. The concept of Lorenz is based on statistics and has been used in petroleum from that point of view. In this paper, we correlated the statistical-based Lorenz method to a petroleum concept, i.e. Kozeny-Carman equation and derived the straight line plot of Lorenz graph for a homogeneous system. Finally, we applied the two methods on a heterogeneous field in South Iran and discussed each, separately, with numbers and figures. As expected, these methods show great departure from homogeneity. Therefore, for future investment, the reservoir needs to be treated carefully.

Keywords: carbonate reservoirs, heterogeneity, homogeneous system, Dykstra-Parsons permeability variations (V), Lorenz coefficient (L)

Procedia PDF Downloads 218

Authors: Nargis Ali

Abstract:

Since the modest fashion market is growing in the UK, there is still little understanding and more concerns found among researchers and marketers about Muslim consumers. Therefore, the present study is designed to explore critical factors influencing Muslim women’s intention to purchase clothing and to identify the differences in the purchase intention of ethnic minority groups in the UK. The conceptual framework is designed using the theory of planned behavior and social identity theory. In order to satisfy the research objectives, a structured online questionnaire was published on Facebook from 20 November to 21 March. As a result, 1087 usable questionnaires were received and used to assess the proposed model fit through structural equation modeling. Results revealed that social media does influence the purchase intention of Muslim women. Muslim women search for stylish clothes that provide comfort during summer while they prefer soft and subdued colors. Furthermore, religious knowledge and religious practice, and fashion uniqueness strongly influence their purchase intention, while hybrid identity is negatively related to the purchase intention of Muslim women. This research contributes to the literature linked to Muslim consumers at a time when the UK's large retailers were seeking to attract Muslim consumers through modestly designed outfits. Besides, it will be helpful to formulate or revise product and marketing strategies according to UK’s Muslim women’s tastes and needs.

Keywords: fashion uniqueness, hybrid identity, religiosity, social media, social identity theory, structural equation modeling, theory of planned behavior

Procedia PDF Downloads 223

Authors: A. K. Borah, A. K. Singh

Abstract:

In this paper we deal building blocks of the computer simulation of the multiphase flows. Whole simulation procedure can be viewed as two super procedures; The implementation of VOF method and the solution of Navier Stoke’s Equation. Moreover, a sequential code for a Navier Stoke’s solver has been studied.

Keywords: Bi-conjugate gradient stabilized (Bi-CGSTAB), ILUT function, krylov subspace, multifluid flows preconditioner, simple algorithm

Procedia PDF Downloads 526

Authors: Tarek Sabri Duzan

Abstract:

Knowledge of the magnitude of Geo-pressures (Pore, Fracture & Over-burden pressures) is vital especially during drilling, completions, stimulations, Enhance Oil Recovery. Many times problems, like lost circulation could have been avoided if techniques for calculating Geo-pressures had been employed in the well planning, mud weight plan, and casing design. In this paper, we focused on the relationships between Geo-pressures and wave velocities (P-Wave (Vp) and S-wave (Vs)) in shallow Libyan carbonate reservoir in the western part of the Sirte Basin (Dahra F-Area). The data used in this report was collected from four new wells recently drilled. Those wells were scattered throughout the interested reservoir as shown in figure-1. The data used in this work are bulk density, Formation Mult -Tester (FMT) results and Acoustic wave velocities. Furthermore, Eaton Method is the most common equation used in the world, therefore this equation has been used to calculate Fracture pressure for all wells using dynamic Poisson ratio calculated by using acoustic wave velocities, FMT results for pore pressure, Overburden pressure estimated by using bulk density. Upon data analysis, it has been found that there is a linear relationship between Geo-pressures (Pore, Fracture & Over-Burden pressures) and wave velocities ratio (Vp/Vs). However, the relationship was not clear in the high-pressure area, as shown in figure-10. Therefore, it is recommended to use the output relationship utilizing the new seismic data for shallow carbonate reservoir to predict the Geo-pressures for future oil operations. More data can be collected from the high-pressure zone to investigate more about this area.

Keywords: bulk density, formation mult-tester (FMT) results, acoustic wave, carbonate shalow reservoir, d/jfield velocities

Procedia PDF Downloads 286

Authors: Jyh Sheen, Yong-Lin Wang

Abstract:

This research dedicates to find a different measurement procedure of microwave dielectric properties of ceramic materials with high dielectric constants. For the composite of ceramic dispersed in the polymer matrix, the dielectric constants of the composites with different concentrations can be obtained by various mixture equations. The other development of mixture rule is to calculate the permittivity of ceramic from measurements on composite. To do this, the analysis method and theoretical accuracy on six basic mixture laws derived from three basic particle shapes of ceramic fillers have been reported for dielectric constants of ceramic less than 40 at microwave frequency. Similar researches have been done for other well-known mixture rules. They have shown that both the physical curve matching with experimental results and low potential theory error are important to promote the calculation accuracy. Recently, a modified of mixture equation for high dielectric constant ceramics at microwave frequency has also been presented for strontium titanate (SrTiO3) which was selected from five more well known mixing rules and has shown a good accuracy for high dielectric constant measurements. However, it is still not clear the accuracy of this modified equation for other high dielectric constant materials. Therefore, the five more well known mixing rules are selected again to understand their application to other high dielectric constant ceramics. The other high dielectric constant ceramic, TiO2 with dielectric constant 100, was then chosen for this research. Their theoretical error equations are derived. In addition to the theoretical research, experimental measurements are always required. Titanium dioxide is an interesting ceramic for microwave applications. In this research, its powder is adopted as the filler material and polyethylene powder is like the matrix material. The dielectric constants of those ceramic-polyethylene composites with various compositions were measured at 10 GHz. The theoretical curves of the five published mixture equations are shown together with the measured results to understand the curve matching condition of each rule. Finally, based on the experimental observation and theoretical analysis, one of the five rules was selected and modified to a new powder mixture equation. This modified rule has show very good curve matching with the measurement data and low theoretical error. We can then calculate the dielectric constant of pure filler medium (titanium dioxide) by those mixing equations from the measured dielectric constants of composites. The accuracy on the estimating dielectric constant of pure ceramic by various mixture rules will be compared. This modified mixture rule has also shown good measurement accuracy on the dielectric constant of titanium dioxide ceramic. This study can be applied to the microwave dielectric properties measurements of other high dielectric constant ceramic materials in the future.

Keywords: microwave measurement, dielectric constant, mixture rules, composites

Procedia PDF Downloads 365

Authors: D. T. Chabalala, J. M. Ndambuki, M. F. Ilunga

Abstract:

Sedimentation includes the processes of erosion, transportation, deposition, and the compaction of sediment. Sedimentation in reservoir results in a decrease in water storage capacity, downstream problems involving aggregation and degradation, blockage of the intake, and change in water quality. A study was conducted in Caledon River catchment in the upstream of Welbedacht Reservoir located in the South Eastern part of Free State province, South Africa. The aim of this research was to investigate and develop a model for an Integrated Catchment Modelling of Sedimentation processes and management for the Welbedacht reservoir. Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) was applied to determine sources of sediment at different areas of the catchment. The model has been also used to determine the impact of changes from management practice on erosion generation. The results revealed that the main sources of sediment in the watershed are cultivated land (273 ton per hectare), built up and forest (103.3 ton per hectare), and grassland, degraded land, mining and quarry (3.9, 9.8 and 5.3 ton per hectare) respectively. After application of soil conservation practices to developed Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation model, the results revealed that the total average annual soil loss in the catchment decreased by 76% and sediment yield from cultivated land decreased by 75%, while the built up and forest area decreased by 42% and 99% respectively. Thus, results of this study will be used by government departments in order to develop sustainable policies.

Keywords: Welbedacht reservoir, sedimentation, RUSLE, Caledon River

Procedia PDF Downloads 192

Authors: C. Shekhar Parajulee

Abstract:

Nepal practiced a centralized unitary governing system for a long and has gone through the federal system after the promulgation of the new constitution on 20 September 2015. There is a big paradigm shift in terms of governance after it. Now, there are three levels of governments, one federal government in the center, seven provincial governments and 753 local governments. Federalism refers to a political governing system with multiple tiers of government working together with coordination. It is preferred for self and shared rule. Though it has opened the door for rights of the people, political stability, state restructuring, and sustainable peace and development, there are many prospects and challenges for its proper implementation. This research analyzes the discourses of federalism implementation in Nepal with special reference to one of seven provinces, Gandaki. Federalism is a new phenomenon in Nepali politics and informed debates on it are required for its right evolution. This research will add value in this regard. Moreover, tracking its evolution and the exploration of the attitudes and behaviors of key actors and stakeholders in a new experiment of a new governing system is also important. The administrative and political system of Gandaki province in terms of service delivery and development will critically be examined. Besides demonstrating the performances of the provincial government and assembly, it will analyze the inter-governmental relation of Gandaki with the other two tiers of government. For this research, people from provincial and local governments (elected representatives and government employees), provincial assembly members, academicians, civil society leaders and journalists are being interviewed. The interview findings will be analyzed by supplementing with published documents. Just going into the federal structure is not the solution. As in the case of other provincial governments, Gandaki had also to start from scratch. It gradually took a shape of government and has been functioning sluggishly. The provincial government has many challenges ahead, which has badly hindered its plans and actions. Additionally, fundamental laws, infrastructures and human resources are found to be insufficient at the sub-national level. Lack of clarity in the jurisdiction is another main challenge. The Nepali Constitution assumes cooperation, coexistence and coordination as the fundamental principles of federalism which, unfortunately, appear to be lacking among the three tiers of government despite their efforts. Though the devolution of power to sub-national governments is essential for the successful implementation of federalism, it has apparently been delayed due to the centralized mentality of bureaucracy as well as a political leader. This research will highlight the reasons for the delay in the implementation of federalism. There might be multiple underlying reasons for the slow pace of implementation of federalism and identifying them is very tough. Moreover, the federal spirit is found to be absent in the main players of today's political system, which is a big irony. So, there are some doubts about whether the federal system in Nepal is just a keepsake or a substantive.

Keywords: federalism, inter-governmental relations, Nepal, provincial government

Procedia PDF Downloads 188

Authors: Sun fang, Zhang Wenxin

Abstract:

This paper establishes an evaluation index system for spatio-temporal patterns of urbanization, with the county as research unit. We use the Entropy Weight method, coefficient variance, the Theil index and ESDA-GIS to analyze spatial patterns and evolutionary characteristics of New-Type Urbanization in the Central Plains Economic Region (CPER) between 2000 and 2011. Results show that economic benefit, non-agricultural employment level and level of market development are the most important factors influencing the level of New-Type Urbanization in the CPER; overall regional differences in New-Type Urbanization have declined while spatial correlations have increased from 2000 to 2011. The overall spatial pattern has changed little, however; differences between the western and eastern areas of the CPER are clear, and the pattern of a strong west and weak east did not change significantly over the study period. Areas with high levels of New-Type Urbanization were mostly distributed along the Beijing-Guangzhou and LongHai Railways on both sides, a new influx of urbanization was tightly clustered around ZhengZhou in the Central Henan Urban Agglomeration, but this trend was found to be weakening slightly. The level of New-Type Urbanization in municipal districts was found to be much higher than it was in the county generally. Provincial borders experienced a lower rate of growth and a lower level of New-Type Urbanization than did any other areas, consistently forming clusters of cold spots and sub-cold spots. The analysis confirms that historical development, location, and diffusion effects of urban agglomeration are the main drivers of changes in New-Type Urbanization patterns in CPER.

Keywords: new-type urbanization, spatial pattern, central plains economic region, spatial evolution

Procedia PDF Downloads 291

Authors: Triveni Gogoi, Rima Chatterjee

Abstract:

Shear wave velocity (Vs) estimation is an important approach in the seismic exploration and characterization of a hydrocarbon reservoir. There are varying methods for prediction of S-wave velocity, if recorded S-wave log is not available. But all the available methods for Vs prediction are empirical mathematical models. Shear wave velocity can be estimated using P-wave velocity by applying Castagna’s equation, which is the most common approach. The constants used in Castagna’s equation vary for different lithologies and geological set-ups. In this study, multiple regression analysis has been used for estimation of S-wave velocity. The EMERGE module from Hampson-Russel software has been used here for generation of S-wave log. Both single attribute and multi attributes analysis have been carried out for generation of synthetic S-wave log in Upper Assam basin. Upper Assam basin situated in North Eastern India is one of the most important petroleum provinces of India. The present study was carried out using four wells of the study area. Out of these wells, S-wave velocity was available for three wells. The main objective of the present study is a prediction of shear wave velocities for wells where S-wave velocity information is not available. The three wells having S-wave velocity were first used to test the reliability of the method and the generated S-wave log was compared with actual S-wave log. Single attribute analysis has been carried out for these three wells within the depth range 1700-2100m, which corresponds to Barail group of Oligocene age. The Barail Group is the main target zone in this study, which is the primary producing reservoir of the basin. A system generated list of attributes with varying degrees of correlation appeared and the attribute with the highest correlation was concerned for the single attribute analysis. Crossplot between the attributes shows the variation of points from line of best fit. The final result of the analysis was compared with the available S-wave log, which shows a good visual fit with a correlation of 72%. Next multi-attribute analysis has been carried out for the same data using all the wells within the same analysis window. A high correlation of 85% has been observed between the output log from the analysis and the recorded S-wave. The almost perfect fit between the synthetic S-wave and the recorded S-wave log validates the reliability of the method. For further authentication, the generated S-wave data from the wells have been tied to the seismic and correlated them. Synthetic share wave log has been generated for the well M2 where S-wave is not available and it shows a good correlation with the seismic. Neutron porosity, density, AI and P-wave velocity are proved to be the most significant variables in this statistical method for S-wave generation. Multilinear regression method thus can be considered as a reliable technique for generation of shear wave velocity log in this study.

Keywords: Castagna's equation, multi linear regression, multi attribute analysis, shear wave logs

Procedia PDF Downloads 226

Authors: Weirong Wang, Shenghong Huang, Xisheng Luo, Zhenyu Li

Abstract:

Material mixing process and related dynamic issues at extreme compressing conditions have gained more and more concerns in last ten years because of the engineering appealings in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) and hypervelocity aircraft developments. However, there lacks models and methods that can handle fully coupled turbulent material mixing and complex fluid evolution under conditions of high energy density regime up to now. In aspects of macro hydrodynamics, three numerical methods such as direct numerical simulation (DNS), large eddy simulation (LES) and Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes equations (RANS) has obtained relative acceptable consensus under the conditions of low energy density regime. However, under the conditions of high energy density regime, they can not be applied directly due to occurrence of dissociation, ionization, dramatic change of equation of state, thermodynamic properties etc., which may make the governing equations invalid in some coupled situations. However, in view of micro/meso scale regime, the methods based on Molecular Dynamics (MD) as well as Monte Carlo (MC) model are proved to be promising and effective ways to investigate such issues. In this study, both classical MD and first-principle based electron force field MD (eFF-MD) methods are applied to investigate Richtmyer-Meshkov Instability of metal Lithium and gas Hydrogen (Li-H2) interface mixing at different shock loading speed ranging from 3 km/s to 30 km/s. It is found that: 1) Classical MD method based on predefined potential functions has some limits in application to extreme conditions, since it cannot simulate the ionization process and its potential functions are not suitable to all conditions, while the eFF-MD method can correctly simulate the ionization process due to its ‘ab initio’ feature; 2) Due to computational cost, the eFF-MD results are also influenced by simulation domain dimensions, boundary conditions and relaxation time choices, etc., in computations. Series of tests have been conducted to determine the optimized parameters. 3) Ionization induced by strong shock compression has important effects on Li-H2 interface evolutions of RMI, indicating a new micromechanism of RMI under conditions of high energy density regime.

Keywords: first-principle, ionization, molecular dynamics, material mixture, Richtmyer-Meshkov instability

Procedia PDF Downloads 224

Authors: W. Meron Mebrahtu, R. Absi

Abstract:

Velocity distribution in turbulent open-channel flows is organized in a complex manner. This is due to the large spatial and temporal variability of fluid motion resulting from the free-surface turbulent flow condition. This phenomenon is complicated further due to the complex geometry of channels and the presence of solids transported. Thus, several efforts were made to understand the phenomenon and obtain accurate mathematical models that are suitable for engineering applications. However, predictions are inaccurate because oversimplified assumptions are involved in modeling this complex phenomenon. Therefore, the aim of this work is to study velocity distribution profiles and obtain simple, more accurate, and predictive mathematical models. Particular focus will be made on the acceptable simplification of the general transport equations and an accurate representation of eddy viscosity. Wide rectangular open-channel seems suitable to begin the study; other assumptions are smooth-wall, and sediment-free flow under steady and uniform flow conditions. These assumptions will allow examining the effect of the bottom wall and the free surface only, which is a necessary step before dealing with more complex flow scenarios. For this flow condition, two ordinary differential equations are obtained for velocity profiles; from the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equation and equilibrium consideration between turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) production and dissipation. Then different analytic models for eddy viscosity, TKE, and mixing length were assessed. Computation results for velocity profiles were compared to experimental data for different flow conditions and the well-known linear, log, and log-wake laws. Results show that the model based on the RANS equation provides more accurate velocity profiles. In the viscous sublayer and buffer layer, the method based on Prandtl’s eddy viscosity model and Van Driest mixing length give a more precise result. For the log layer and outer region, a mixing length equation derived from Von Karman’s similarity hypothesis provides the best agreement with measured data except near the free surface where an additional correction based on a damping function for eddy viscosity is used. This method allows more accurate velocity profiles with the same value of the damping coefficient that is valid under different flow conditions. This work continues with investigating narrow channels, complex geometries, and the effect of solids transported in sewers.

Keywords: accuracy, eddy viscosity, sewers, velocity profile

Procedia PDF Downloads 110

Authors: Swati Arun

Abstract:

The present paper argues that Balance of Power (BOP) needs to conjugate with certain contingencies like geography. It is evident that sea powers (‘insular’ for better clarity) are not balanced (if at all) in the same way as land powers. Its apparent that artificial insularity that the US has achieved reduces the chances of balancing (constant) and helps it maintain preponderance (variable). But how precise is this approach in assessing the dynamics between China’s rise and reaction of other powers and US. The ‘evolved’ theory can be validated by putting China and US in the equation. Systemic Relation between the nations was explained through the Balance of Power theory much before the systems theory was propounded. The BOP is the crux of functionality of ‘power relation’ dynamics which has played its role in the most astounding ways leading to situations of war and peace. Whimsical; but true that, the BOP has remained a complicated and indefinable concepts since Hans. Morganthau to Kenneth Waltz. A challenge of the BOP, however remains; “ that it has too many meanings”. In the recent times it has become evident that the myriad of expectations generated by BOP has not met the practicality of the current world politics. It is for this reason; the BoP has been replaced by Preponderance Theory (PT) to explain prevailing power situation. PT does provide an empirical reasoning for the success of this theory but fails in a abstract logical reasoning required for making a theory universal. Unipolarity clarifies the current system as one where balance of power has become redundant. It seems to reach beyond the contours of BoP, where a superpower does what it must to remain one. The centrality of this arguments pivots around - an exception, every time BOP fails to operate, preponderance of power emerges. PT does not sit well with the primary logic of a theory because it works on an exception. The evolution of such a pattern and system where BOP fails and preponderance emerges is absent. The puzzle here is- if BOP really has become redundant or it needs polishing. The international power structure changed from multipolar to bipolar to unipolar. BOP was looked at to provide inevitable logic behind such changes and answer the dilemma we see today- why US is unchecked, unbalanced? But why was Britain unchecked in 19th century and why China was unbalanced in 13th century? It is the insularity of the state that makes BOP reproduce “imbalance of power”, going a level up from off-shore balancer. This luxury of a state to maintain imbalance in the region of competition or threat is the causal relation between BOP’s and geography. America has applied imbalancing- meaning disequilibrium (in its favor) to maintain the regional balance so that over time the weaker does not get stronger and pose a competition. It could do that due to the significant parity present between the US and the rest.

Keywords: balance of power, china, preponderance of power, US

Procedia PDF Downloads 277

Authors: Vyacheslav Furtak, Merja Roivainen, Olga Mirochnichenko, Majid Laassri, Bella Bidzhieva, Tatiana Zagorodnyaya, Vladimir Chizhikov, Konstantin Chumakov

Abstract:

Molecular epidemiology and environmental surveillance are parts of a rational strategy to control infectious diseases. They have been widely used in the worldwide campaign to eradicate poliomyelitis, which otherwise would be complicated by the inability to rapidly respond to outbreaks and determine sources of the infection. The conventional scheme involves isolation of viruses from patients and the environment, followed by their identification by nucleotide sequences analysis to determine phylogenetic relationships. This is a tedious and time-consuming process that yields definitive results when it may be too late to implement countermeasures. Because of the difficulty of high-throughput full-genome sequencing, most such studies are conducted by sequencing only capsid genes or their parts. Therefore the important information about the contribution of other parts of the genome and inter- and intra-species recombination to viral evolution is not captured. Here we propose a new approach based on the rapid concentration of sewage samples with tangential flow filtration followed by deep sequencing and reconstruction of nucleotide sequences of viruses present in the samples. The entire nucleic acids content of each sample is sequenced, thus preserving in digital format the complete spectrum of viruses. A set of rapid algorithms was developed to separate deep sequence reads into discrete populations corresponding to each virus and assemble them into full-length consensus contigs, as well as to generate a complete profile of sequence heterogeneities in each of them. This provides an effective approach to study molecular epidemiology and evolution of natural viral populations.

Keywords: poliovirus, eradication, environmental surveillance, laboratory diagnosis

Procedia PDF Downloads 281

Authors: Mehran Nozari-Asbemarz, Italo Pisano, Simin Arshi, Edmond Magner, James J. Leahy

Abstract:

Integrating electrolytic synthesis with renewable energy makes it feasible to address urgent environmental and energy challenges. Conventional water electrolyzers concurrently produce H₂ and O₂, demanding additional procedures in gas separation to prevent contamination of H₂ with O₂. Moreover, the oxygen evolution reaction (OER), which is sluggish and has a low overall energy conversion efficiency, does not deliver a significant value product on the electrode surface. Compared to conventional water electrolysis, integrating electrolytic hydrogen generation from water with thermodynamically more advantageous aqueous organic oxidation processes can increase energy conversion efficiency and create value-added compounds instead of oxygen at the anode. One strategy is to use renewable and sustainable carbon sources from biomass, which has a large annual production capacity and presents a significant opportunity to supplement carbon sourced from fossil fuels. Numerous catalytic techniques have been researched in order to utilize biomass economically. Because of its safe operating conditions, excellent energy efficiency, and reasonable control over production rate and selectivity using electrochemical parameters, electrocatalytic upgrading stands out as an appealing choice among the numerous biomass refinery technologies. Therefore, we propose a broad framework for coupling H2 generation from water splitting with oxidative biomass upgrading processes. Four representative biomass targets were considered for oxidative upgrading that used a hierarchically porous CoFe-MOF/LDH @ Graphite Paper bifunctional electrocatalyst, including glucose, ethanol, benzyl, furfural, and 5-hydroxymethylfurfural (HMF). The potential required to support 50 mA cm-2 is considerably lower than (~ 380 mV) the potential for OER. All four compounds can be oxidized to yield liquid byproducts with economic benefit. The electrocatalytic oxidation of glucose to the value-added products, gluconic acid, glucuronic acid, and glucaric acid, was examined in detail. The cell potential for combined H₂ production and glucose oxidation was substantially lower than for water splitting (1.44 V(RHE) vs. 1.82 V(RHE) for 50 mA cm-2). In contrast, the oxidation byproduct at the anode was significantly more valuable than O₂, taking advantage of the more favorable glucose oxidation in comparison to the OER. Overall, such a combination of HER and oxidative biomass valorization using electrocatalysts prevents the production of potentially explosive H₂/O₂mixtures and produces high-value products at both electrodes with lower voltage input, thereby increasing the efficiency and activity of electrocatalytic conversion.

Keywords: biomass, electrocatalytic, glucose oxidation, hydrogen evolution

Procedia PDF Downloads 93

Authors: S. Al-Fadala, J. Chakkamalayath, S. Al-Bahar, A. Al-Aibani, S. Ahmed

Abstract:

Globally, the use of pozzolan in blended cement is gaining great interest due to the desirable effect of pozzolan from the environmental and energy conservation standpoint and the technical benefits they provide to the performance of cement. The deterioration of concrete structures in the marine environment and extreme climates demand the use of pozzolana cement in concrete construction in the Gulf region. Also, natural sources of cement clinker materials are limited in the Gulf region, and cement industry imports the raw materials for the production of Portland cement, resulting in an increase in the greenhouse gas effect due to the CO₂ emissions generated from transportation. Even though the Gulf region has vast deposits of natural pozzolana, it is not explored properly for the production of high performance concrete. Hence, an optimum use of regionally available natural pozzolana for the production of blended cement can result in sustainable construction. This paper investigates the effect of incorporating natural pozzolan sourced from the Gulf region on the performance of blended cement in terms of heat evolution and strength development. For this purpose, a locally produced Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) and pozzolan-incorporated blended cements containing different amounts of natural pozzolan (volcanic ash) were prepared on laboratory scale. The strength development and heat evolution were measured and quantified. Promising results of strength development were obtained for blends with the percentages of Volcanic Ash (VA) replacement varying from 10 to 30%. Results showed that the heat of hydration decreased with increase in percentage of replacement of OPC with VA, indicating increased retardation in hydration due to the addition of VA. This property could be used in mass concreting in which a reduction in heat of hydration is required to reduce cracking in concrete, especially in hot weather concreting.

Keywords: blended cement, hot weather, hydration, volcanic ash

Procedia PDF Downloads 323

Authors: Mihaly Homostrei, Tamas Simon, Dorottya Schnider

Abstract:

The topic of oscillation in physics is one of the key ideas which is usually taught based on the concept of harmonic oscillation. It can be an interesting activity to deal with a frictional oscillator in advanced high school classes or in university courses. Its mechanics are investigated in this research, which shows that the motion of the frictional oscillator is more complicated than a simple harmonic oscillator. The physics of the applied model in this study seems to be interesting and useful for undergraduate students. The study presents a well-known physical system, which is mostly discussed theoretically in high school and at the university. The ideal frictional oscillator is normally used as an example of harmonic oscillatory motion, as its theory relies on the constant coefficient of sliding friction. The structure of the system is simple: a rod with a homogeneous mass distribution is placed on two rotating identical cylinders placed at the same height so that they are horizontally aligned, and they rotate at the same angular velocity, however in opposite directions. Based on this setup, one could easily show that the equation of motion describes a harmonic oscillation considering the magnitudes of the normal forces in the system as the function of the position and the frictional forces with a constant coefficient of frictions are related to them. Therefore, the whole description of the model relies on simple Newtonian mechanics, which is available for students even in high school. On the other hand, the phenomenon of the described frictional oscillator does not seem to be so straightforward after all; experiments show that the simple harmonic oscillation cannot be observed in all cases, and the system performs a much more complex movement, whereby the rod adjusts itself to a non-harmonic oscillation with a nonzero stable amplitude after an unconventional damping effect. The stable amplitude, in this case, means that the position function of the rod converges to a harmonic oscillation with a constant amplitude. This leads to the idea of a more complex model which can describe the motion of the rod in a more accurate way. The main difference to the original equation of motion is the concept that the frictional coefficient varies with the relative velocity. This dependence on the velocity was investigated in many different research articles as well; however, this specific problem could demonstrate the key concept of the varying friction coefficient and its importance in an interesting and demonstrative way. The position function of the rod is described by a more complicated and non-trivial, yet more precise equation than the usual harmonic oscillation description of the movement. The study discusses the structure of the measurements related to the frictional oscillator, the qualitative and quantitative derivation of the theory, and the comparison of the final theoretical function as well as the measured position-function in time. The project provides useful materials and knowledge for undergraduate students and a new perspective in university physics education.

Keywords: friction, frictional coefficient, non-harmonic oscillator, physics education

Procedia PDF Downloads 191

Authors: Jonathan K. Hill

Abstract:

The transportation networks throughout Africa remain the only transportation infrastructure system in the world that is attacked by terrorists at a high frequency, so the international community can learn from each attack. The targeting of transportation should be recognized as a direct attack against a civilian population, so the international community should work to better understand the types of attacks utilized, the types of improvised explosive device designs adapted to transportation targets, and the ways the various modes of transportation have been attacked throughout the continent. Some countries have seen grenade attacks that have resulted in only injuries, while some countries have experienced large vehicle bombings that have resulted in hundreds of injuries and numerous deaths. With insurgencies, explosive devices have been small, complex, and generally target an enemy of the insurgency. With terrorist bombings, the explosive devices have been large, brazen, and targeted at civilian populations. And, these civilian populations are easily targeted within the transportation system. The presentation provided by Assess Africa LLC is titled ‘Evolution of Bombings Against Transportation Infrastructure’ and covers improvised explosive device characteristics, how improvised explosive devices have been adapted to transportation targets in Africa, analyses recent incidents, and provides some advice for effective protective measures. A main component of the improvised explosive device characteristics portion of the presentation focuses on the link between explosive device components, the intelligence network, and the bomb-builder’s network. By understanding the components, how the use of various components can be linked to a terrorist group’s capabilities, and how the bomb-builder acquires materials, the analysis of improvised explosive device attacks takes on a new direction – one that focuses on defeating the network instead of merely reviewing incidents of the past.

Keywords: Africa, bombings, critical infrastructure protection, transportation security

Procedia PDF Downloads 424

Authors: Johnson Audu, Faisal Fairag

Abstract:

In a bounded subset of R^d, d=2 or 3, we consider the Darcy-Forchheimer power model with the exponent 1 < m ≤ 2 for a single-phase strong-inertia fluid flow in a porous medium. Under necessary compatibility condition, and some mild regularity assumptions on the interior and the boundary data, we prove the existence and uniqueness of solution (u, p) in L^(m+1 ) (Ω)^d X (W^(1,(m+1)/m) (Ω)^d ⋂L_0^2 (Ω)^d) and its stability.

Keywords: porous media, power law, strong inertia, nonlinear, monotone type

Procedia PDF Downloads 313

Authors: Nada Abdelsadig Moahamed Saied

Abstract:

Female Genital Mutilation (FGM) and other similar traditional cultural practices pose a significant problem for Sudanese society. Such actions are severe and seriously detrimental to people's health since they are based on false social perceptions. To address these problems, numerous institutions and organizations were compelled to act rapidly. Female circumcision, or FGM, is one of the riskiest practices. It is referred to as the excision of the genitalia. Any surgeries involving the total or partial removal of the external female genitalia for non-medical reasons fall under this category. The results of FGM can vary depending on the kind and degree of the operation. These can be categorized as short-term, mid-term, or long-term issues. Infections, including the Human, blood, discomfort, and difficulty urinating are the immediate effects. FGM is defined by the World Health Organization (WHO) as practices that purposefully damage or modify female genital organs for non-medical purposes. It often takes place between the ages of one and fifteen. The girl's right to decide on important choices affecting her sexual and reproductive health is violated because the act is usually performed without her consent and frequently against her will. UNICEF, the United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund, aggressively combats the issue of FGM in Sudan. Numerous programs were started by NGOs to stop the practice. To our knowledge, no scientific study has been conducted to evaluate the effects of such social marketing techniques on simulating and comprehending society’s feelings surrounding FGM. This study proposes the development of a structural equation model aiming to determine the impact of awareness programs on people’s intentions to adopt the behavior of abandoning FGM based on theoretical models of behavior change. The model incorporates all the relevant factors that contribute to FGM and possible strategic actions to tackle this problem. The theoretical backdrop for FGM is presented in the next section, which also explains the practice's history, justifications, and potential treatments. The methodology section that follows describes the structural equation model. The proposed model, which compiles all the pertinent elements into a single image, is presented in the fourth part. Finally, conclusions are reached, and suggestions for further research are made.

Keywords: social marketing, policy-making, behavioral change, female genital mutilation, culture

Procedia PDF Downloads 73

Authors: M. A. Hernández-Ceballos, E. G. San Miguel, C. Galán, J. P. Bolívar

Abstract:

The evolution of 7Be and 210Pb activity concentrations in surface air along the Guadalquivir valley (southern Iberian Peninsula) is presented in this study. Samples collected for 48 h, every fifteen days, from September 2012 to November 2013 at two sampling sites (Huelva city in the mouth and Cordoba city in the middle (located 250 km far away)), are used to 1) analysing the spatial variability and 2) understanding the influence of wind conditions on 7Be and 210Pb. Similar average concentrations were registered along the valley. The mean 7Be activity concentration was 4.46 ± 0.21 mBq/m3 at Huelva and 4.33 ± 0.20 mBq/m3 at Cordoba, although registering higher maximum and minimum values at Cordoba (9.44 mBq/m3 and 1.80 mBq/m3) than at Huelva (7.95 mBq/m3 and 1.04 mBq/m3). No significant differences were observed in the 210Pb mean activity concentrations between Cordoba (0.40 ± 0.04 mBq/m3) and Huelva (0.35 ± 0.04 mBq/m3), although the maximum (1.10 mBq/m3 and 0.87 mBq/m3) and minimum (0.02 mBq/m3 and 0.04 mBq/m3) values were recorded in Cordoba. Although similar average concentrations were obtained in both sites, the temporal evolution of both natural radionuclides presents differences between them. The meteorological analysis of two sampling periods, in which large differences on 7Be and 210Pb concentrations are observed, indicates the different impact of surface and upper wind dynamics. The analysis reveals the different impact of the two sea-land breeze patterns usually observed along the valley (pure and non-pure) and the corresponding air masses at higher layers associated with each one. The pure, with short development (around 30 km inland) and increasing accumulation process, favours high concentrations of both radionuclides in Huelva (coastal site), while the non-pure, with winds sweeping the valley until arrive to Cordoba (250 km far away), causes high activity values at this site. These results reveal the impact of mesoscale conditions on these two natural radionuclides, and the importance of these circulations on its spatial and temporal variability.

Keywords: 7Be, 210Pb, air masses, mesoscale process

Procedia PDF Downloads 408

Authors: Diana F. Lopes, Jorge Simoes, José Martins, Eduardo Castro

Abstract:

Health professionals are the keystone of any health system, by delivering health services to the population. Given the time and cost involved in training new health professionals, the planning process of the health workforce is particularly important as it ensures a proper balance between the supply and demand of these professionals and it plays a central role on the Health 2020 policy. In the past 40 years, the planning of the health workforce in Portugal has been conducted in a reactive way lacking a prospective vision based on an integrated, comprehensive and valid analysis. This situation may compromise not only the productivity and the overall socio-economic development but the quality of the healthcare services delivered to patients. This is even more critical given the expected shortage of the health workforce in the future. Furthermore, Portugal is facing an aging context of some professional classes (physicians and nurses). In 2015, 54% of physicians in Portugal were over 50 years old, and 30% of all members were over 60 years old. This phenomenon associated to an increasing emigration of young health professionals and a change in the citizens’ illness profiles and expectations must be considered when planning resources in healthcare. The perspective of sudden retirement of large groups of professionals in a short time is also a major problem to address. Another challenge to embrace is the health workforce imbalances, in which Portugal has one of the lowest nurse to physician ratio, 1.5, below the European Region and the OECD averages (2.2 and 2.8, respectively). Within the scope of the HEALTH 2040 project – which aims to estimate the ‘Future needs of human health resources in Portugal till 2040’ – the present study intends to get a comprehensive dynamic approach of the problem, by (i) estimating the needs of physicians and nurses in Portugal, by specialties and by quinquenium till 2040; (ii) identifying the training needs of physicians and nurses, in medium and long term, till 2040, and (iii) estimating the number of students that must be admitted into medicine and nursing training systems, each year, considering the different categories of specialties. The development of such approach is significantly more critical in the context of limited budget resources and changing health care needs. In this context, this study presents the drivers of the healthcare needs’ evolution (such as the demographic and technological evolution, the future expectations of the users of the health systems) and it proposes a Bayesian methodology, combining the best available data with experts opinion, to model such evolution. Preliminary results considering different plausible scenarios are presented. The proposed methodology will be integrated in a user-friendly decision support system so it can be used by politicians, with the potential to measure the impact of health policies, both at the regional and the national level.

Keywords: bayesian estimation, health economics, health workforce planning, human health resources planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 251

Authors: Einav Srulovici, Michal Grinstein-Weiss, George Knafl, Linda Beeber, Shawn Kneipp, Barbara Mark

Abstract:

Background: The asset-building theoretical framework (ABTF) is acknowledged as the most complete framework thus far for depicting the relationships between asset accumulation (the stock of a household’s saved resources available for future investment) and health outcomes. Although the ABTF takes into consideration the reciprocal relationship between asset accumulation and health, no ABTF based study has yet examined this relationship. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to test the ABTF and psychological distress, focusing on the reciprocal relationship between assets accumulation and psychological distress. Methods: The study employed longitudinal data from 6,295 families from the 2001 and 2007 Panel Study of Income Dynamics data sets. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to test the reciprocal relationship between asset accumulation and psychological distress. Results: In general, the data displayed a good fit to the model. The longitudinal SEM found that asset accumulation significantly increased with a decreased in psychological distress over time, while psychological distress significantly increased with an increase in asset accumulation over time, confirming the existence of the hypothesized reciprocal relationship. Conclusions: Individuals who are less psychological distressed might have more energy to engage in activities, such as furthering their education or obtaining better jobs that are in turn associated with greater asset accumulation, while those who have greater assets may invest those assets in riskier investments, resulting in increased psychological distress. The confirmation of this reciprocal relationship highlights the importance of conducting longitudinal studies and testing the reciprocal relationship between asset accumulation and other health outcomes.

Keywords: asset-building theoretical framework, psychological distress, structural equation modeling, reciprocal relationship

Procedia PDF Downloads 392