Search results for: monthly ticket

Authors: M. Dahbi, M. Sellam, A. Benatiallah, A. Harrouz

Abstract:

The wind energy is one of the most significant and rapidly developing renewable energy sources in the world and it provides a clean energy resource, which is a promising alternative in the short term in Algeria The main purpose of this paper is to compared and discuss the wind power potential in three sites located in sahara of Algeria (south west of Algeria) and to perform an investigation on the wind power potential of desert of Algeria. In this comparative, wind speed frequency distributions data obtained from the web site SODA.com are used to calculate the average wind speed and the available wind power. The Weibull density function has been used to estimate the monthly power wind density and to determine the characteristics of monthly parameters of Weibull for these three sites. The annual energy produced by the BWC XL.1 1KW wind machine is obtained and compared. The analysis shows that in the south west of Algeria, at 10 m height, the available wind power was found to vary between 136.59 W/m2 and 231.04 W/m2. The highest potential wind power was found at Adrar, with 21h per day and the mean wind speed is above 6 m/s. Besides, it is found that the annual wind energy generated by that machine lie between 512 KWh and 1643.2 kWh. However, the wind resource appears to be suitable for power production on the sahara and it could provide a viable substitute to diesel oil for irrigation pumps and rural electricity generation.

Keywords: Weibull distribution, parameters of Wiebull, wind energy, wind turbine, operating hours

Procedia PDF Downloads 495

Authors: Maria Dora Horvath, Norbert Buzas, Zsanett Tesch

Abstract:

Diabetes management poses many unique challenges for children and their parents. The use of a diabetes management device should not be one of these challenges as the purpose of these devices is to make the management more convenient. The objective of our study was to examine how demographical, psychological and diabetes-related factors determine the choices parents make regarding their child’s diabetes management technologies and how they perceive advanced devices. We conducted the study using an online questionnaire with 318 parents (mostly mothers). The questions of the survey were about demographical, diabetes-related and psychological factors (diabetes management problems, diabetes management competence). In addition, we asked the parents opinions about advanced diabetes management devices. We expanded our data with semi-structured in-depth interviews. 61 % of the participants Self-Monitored Blood Glucose (SMBG), and 39 % used a Continuous Glucose Monitoring System (CGM). Considering insulin administration, 58 % used Multiple Daily Insulin Injections (MDII) and 42 % used Continuous Subcutaneous Insulin Infusion (CSII). Parents who used diverse combinations of diabetes management devices showed significant differences in age (parents’ and child’s), the monthly cost of diabetes, the duration of diabetes, the highest level of education and average monthly household income. CGM users perceived diabetes management problems significantly more severe than SMBG users and CSII users felt significantly more competent in diabetes management than MDII users. Avoiding CGM use due to lack of financial resources was determined by diagnosis duration. While avoiding its use by the cause of the child rejecting, it was determined by the child’s age and diabetes competence. Using MDII instead of CSII because of the child’s rejection was determined by the monthly cost of diabetes and child’s age. We conducted a complex empirical study in which we examined perceptions and experiences of advanced and less advanced diabetes management technologies comprehensively. Our study highlights the factors that fundamentally influence parents’ motivations and choices about diabetes management technologies. These results could contribute to developing diabetes management technologies more suitable for children living with type 1 diabetes and their parents.

Keywords: advanced diabetes management technologies, children living with type 1 diabetes, diabetes management, motivation, parents

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: Jose Hernandez, Lina Martínez, Gustavo Gonzalez, Carlos Lázaro, Diana Castrillon, Jonathan Cardona, Laura Mejía, Yina Sanchez, Luisa Ochoa, Evert Jimenez

Abstract:

Objectives: Economic analyses of tuberculosis control interventions are usually focused on the payer’s perspective. To assess the overall economic impact of the disease, out-of-pocket and indirect costs are also required. This research is aimed to estimate overall economic impact under DOTS-strategy (Directly Observed Therapy Short Course). Methods: A cross-sectional survey of 91 adult tuberculosis patients in treatment for at least two months was conducted from the society perspective. A standardized questionnaire was used in three different cities of Colombia: Medellin (poverty is 17.7%), Monteria (poverty is 36.9%) and Quibdó (poverty is 51.2%). Costs were converted to 2013 USD and categorized into two periods: diagnostics phase and treatment. Results: The median cost during diagnostics was 13$ (±SD 9.5). The median monthly patient out-of-pocket costs during treatment were 32$ (±SD 6.8), equivalent to 17% of patient’s median monthly income, estimated in 186$ (±SD 23). Costs recorded in Medellin were 47$ in Monteria was 18$ and in Quibdó was 13$. Conclusion: Patient costs under DOTS strategy are high even when services are provided free of charge. The creation or strengthening of community-based treatment supervisors could greatly impact costs of tuberculosis and lower drop-outs.

Keywords: tuberculosis, costs and cost analysis, health promotion, Colombia

Procedia PDF Downloads 367

Authors: Seema Paul, John Mango Magero, Prosun Bhattacharya, Zahra Kalantari, Steve W. Lyon

Abstract:

The purpose of this review paper is to develop an understanding of lake hydrodynamics and the potential climate impact on the Lake Victoria (LV) catchment scale. This paper briefly discusses the main problems of lake hydrodynamics and its’ solutions that are related to quality assessment and climate effect. An empirical methodology in modeling and mapping have considered for understanding lake hydrodynamic and visualizing the long-term observational daily, monthly, and yearly mean dataset results by using geographical information system (GIS) and Comsol techniques. Data were obtained for the whole lake and five different meteorological stations, and several geoprocessing tools with spatial analysis are considered to produce results. The linear regression analyses were developed to build climate scenarios and a linear trend on lake rainfall data for a long period. A potential evapotranspiration rate has been described by the MODIS and the Thornthwaite method. The rainfall effect on lake water level observed by Partial Differential Equations (PDE), and water quality has manifested by a few nutrients parameters. The study revealed monthly and yearly rainfall varies with monthly and yearly maximum and minimum temperatures, and the rainfall is high during cool years and the temperature is high associated with below and average rainfall patterns. Rising temperatures are likely to accelerate evapotranspiration rates and more evapotranspiration is likely to lead to more rainfall, drought is more correlated with temperature and cloud is more correlated with rainfall. There is a trend in lake rainfall and long-time rainfall on the lake water surface has affected the lake level. The onshore and offshore have been concentrated by initial literature nutrients data. The study recommended that further studies should consider fully lake bathymetry development with flow analysis and its’ water balance, hydro-meteorological processes, solute transport, wind hydrodynamics, pollution and eutrophication these are crucial for lake water quality, climate impact assessment, and water sustainability.

Keywords: climograph, climate scenarios, evapotranspiration, linear trend flow, rainfall event on LV, concentration

Procedia PDF Downloads 99

Authors: Emmanuel Iyamuremye

Abstract:

Extreme rainfall events have caused significant damage to agriculture, ecology, and infrastructure, disruption of human activities, injury, and loss of life. They also have significant social, economic, and environmental consequences because they considerably damage urban as well as rural areas. Early detection of extreme maximum rainfall helps to implement strategies and measures, before they occur, hence mitigating the consequences. Extreme value theory has been used widely in modeling extreme rainfall and in various disciplines, such as financial markets, the insurance industry, failure cases. Climatic extremes have been analyzed by using either generalized extreme value (GEV) or generalized Pareto (GP) distributions, which provides evidence of the importance of modeling extreme rainfall from different regions of the world. In this paper, we focused on Peak Over Thresholds approach, where the Poisson-generalized Pareto distribution is considered as the proper distribution for the study of the exceedances. This research also considers the use of the generalized Pareto (GP) distribution with a Poisson model for arrivals to describe peaks over a threshold. The research used statistical techniques to fit models that used to predict extreme rainfall in Kigali. The results indicate that the proposed Poisson-GP distribution provides a better fit to maximum monthly rainfall data. Further, the Poisson-GP models are able to estimate various return levels. The research also found a slow increase in return levels for maximum monthly rainfall for higher return periods, and further, the intervals are increasingly wider as the return period is increasing.

Keywords: exceedances, extreme value theory, generalized Pareto distribution, Poisson generalized Pareto distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: Sukovatov K.Yu., Bezuglova N.N.

Abstract:

Winter precipitation variability over the Altai Krai was investigated by retrieving temporal patterns. The spectral singular analysis was used to describe the variance distribution and to reduce the precipitation data into a few components (modes). The associated time series were related to large-scale atmospheric and oceanic circulation indices by using lag cross-correlation and wavelet-coherence analysis. GPCC monthly precipitation data for rectangular field limited by 50-550N, 77-880E and monthly climatological circulation index data for the cold season were used to perform SSA decomposition and retrieve statistics for analyzed parameters on the time period 1951-2017. Interannual variability of winter precipitation over the Altai Krai are mostly caused by three natural factors: intensity variations of momentum exchange between mid and polar latitudes over the North Atlantic (explained variance 11.4%); wind speed variations in equatorial stratosphere (quasi-biennial oscillation, explained variance 15.3%); and surface temperature variations for equatorial Pacific sea (ENSO, explained variance 2.8%). It is concluded that under the current climate conditions (Arctic amplification and increasing frequency of meridional processes in mid-latitudes) the second and the third factors are giving more significant contribution into explained variance of interannual variability for cold season atmospheric precipitation over the Altai Krai than the first factor.

Keywords: interannual variability, winter precipitation, Altai Krai, wavelet-coherence

Procedia PDF Downloads 188

Authors: Rita A. Sunday-Kanu

Abstract:

This article reports on an evaluation of lunch hour concert and its effectiveness in improving undergraduate performance ability. In particular, it examines the aptitude of students in classroom applied music and their reaction/responses to true life concert situations. It further investigated factors affecting students’ confidence during performances, the relationship between stage fright and confidence building in regular concert participation. The Department of Music, University of Port Harcourt runs monthly lunch our concerts which are coordinated by undergraduates for the university community. Forty music students who have participated in or coordinated lunch hour concerts were chosen for this survey. Eight music lecturers who have supervised the monthly lunch hour concert were also chosen for this study. The attitude and view on the effectiveness of lunch hour concert in enhancing students’ performance skills were gotten through questionnaires survey, in-depth interview and participant observation to determine if classroom based applied music alone is as successful in grooming performance genius as the lunch hour concert. Result indicated that students’ participation in lunch hour concert did indeed broaden and strengthened their performance experiences. This observation led to a recommendation that regular community based concerts be considered as a standard for performance practices in the university curriculum since it serves as a preparatory platform for acquiring professional performance skills before graduation.

Keywords: lunch hour concert, performance, performing skill, community concert

Procedia PDF Downloads 175

Authors: Gizem Kodak, Alper Unal, Birsen Koldemir, Tayfun Acarer

Abstract:

Turkish Straits System which consists of Istanbul Strait (Bosphorus), Canakkale Strait (Dardanelles) and the Marmara Sea has a strategical location on international maritime as it is a unique waterway between the Mediterranean Sea, Black Sea and the Aegean Sea. Thus, this area has great importance since it is the only waterway between Black Sea countries and the rest of the World. Turkish Straits System has dangerous environmental factors hosts more vessel every day through developing World trade and this situation results in expanding accident risks day by day. Today, a lot of precautions have been taken to ensure safe navigation and to prevent maritime accidents, and international standards are followed to avoid maritime accidents. Despite this, the environmental factors that affect this area, trigger the maritime accidents and threaten the vessels with new accidents risks in different months with different hazards. This descriptive study consists of temporal and spatial analyses of environmental factors causing maritime accidents. This study also aims at contributing to safety navigation including monthly and regionally characteristics of variables. In this context, two different data sets are created consisting of environmental factors and accidents. This descriptive study on the accidents between 2001 and 2017 the mentioned region also studies the months and places of the accidents with environmental factor variables. Environmental factor variables are categorized as dynamic and static factors. Dynamic factors are appointed as meteorological and oceanographical while static factors are appointed as geological factors that threaten safety navigation with geometrical restricts. The variables that form dynamic factors are approached meteorological as wind direction, wind speed, wave altitude and visibility. The circulations and properties of the water mass on the system are studied as oceanographical properties. At the end of the study, the efficient meteorological and oceanographical parameters on the region are presented monthly and regionally. By this way, we acquired the monthly, seasonal and regional distributions of the accidents. Upon the analyses that are done; The Turkish Straits System that connects the Black Sea countries with the other countries and which is one of the most important parts of the world trade; is analyzed on temporal and spatial dimensions on the reasons of the accidents and have been presented as environmental factor dynamics causing maritime accidents.

Keywords: descriptive study, environmental factors, maritime accidents, statistics

Procedia PDF Downloads 202

Authors: Sulasmi Sudirman, Rachmadanty Mujah Hartika

Abstract:

Traffic violence is currently a big issue in Indonesia. However, the road users perceived risk that is caused by traffic violence is low. The lack of safety driving awareness is one of the factors that road users committed to traffic violence. There are several lists of common traffic violence in Indonesia such as lack of physical fitness, not wearing helmet, unfasten seatbelt, breaking through the traffic light, not holding a driving license, and some more violence. This research sought to explore the perception of road users toward traffic violence. The participants were road users in Makassar, Indonesia who were using cars and motorbikes. The method of the research was a qualitative approach by using a personal interview to collect data. The research showed that there three main ideas of perceiving traffic violence which are motives, environment that supported traffic violence, and reinforcement. The road users committed traffic violence had particular motive, for example, rushing. The road users committed to traffic violence when other road users and significant other did the same. The road users committed traffic violence when the police were not there to give a ticket. It can be concluded that the perception of road users toward traffic violence determined by internal aspect, the social aspect, and regulation.

Keywords: perception, road users, traffic, violence

Procedia PDF Downloads 222

Authors: Phusit Phukamchanoad

Abstract:

This research aims to analyze the fundamental factors of the community leader and citizens behind the self-sufficient living in Vientiane, Lao People's Democratic Republic. The data were collected by asking 400 citizens to fill out the questionnaires and having in-depth interviews with 30 community leaders. It was found that the factors which had influenced the practice of the sufficiency economy philosophy were age, occupation, length of time living in Vientiane, education, monthly income, monthly expense, and the sufficiency economy philosophy training. The people who had been trained could practice the sufficiency economy philosophy better at both individual and household level than the people who had not been trained. The people who were older than 36 years old had practiced the sufficiency economy philosophy more than the people who were younger than 35 years old. The people who worked in state-owned enterprises, private businesses, and government officials: teachers, police officers, soldiers, and ministers applied the sufficiency economy philosophy more than the samples who were students. The people who lived in Vientiane for more than 31 years applied the sufficiency economy philosophy more than the samples who lived in Vientiane for not more than 30 years. The people whose incomes exceeded 20,001 baht applied the sufficiency economy philosophy more than the people whose incomes did not exceed 20,000 baht. Both community leaders and citizens had a good relationship with their families and community. The community members supported each other during tough times. There were regular meetings in the community. There was unity within the families. The time to build a bond in the family was the time when everyone was eating together. Also, most community leaders and citizens had at least two jobs per one person.

Keywords: sufficiency economy philosophy, fundamental factors, way of life, Vientiane Lao PDR

Procedia PDF Downloads 143

Authors: Md. Musfiqur Rahman Bhuiya Nidalia Islam, Hossain Mohiuddin, Md. Kawser Bin Zaman

Abstract:

Dhaka North City Corporation introduced first area-based bus service on 10 August 2016 to run through Gulshan and Banani area to dilute sufferings of the people which started with the ban on movement of the bus in these areas after Holy Artisan terrorist attack. This study explores service quality performance of Dhaka Chaka on the basis of information provided by its riders on a questionnaire survey. Total thirteen service quality indicators have been ranked on a scale of 1-5, and they have been classified under three latent variables based on their correlation using eigenvalue and rotated factor matrix derived through factor analysis process. Mean, and skewness has been calculated for each indicator. It has been found that ticket price and ticketing system have relatively poor average service quality rank than other factors. All other factors have moderately good performance. The study also suggests some recommendation to improve service quality of Dhaka Chaka based on the interrelation between considered parameters.

Keywords: area based bus service, eigen value, factor analysis, correlation

Procedia PDF Downloads 189

Authors: Jonathan Iworiso

Abstract:

Forecasting the equity premium out-of-sample is a major concern to researchers in finance and emerging markets. The quest for a superior model that can forecast the equity premium with significant economic gains has resulted in several controversies on the choice of variables and suitable techniques among scholars. This research focuses mainly on the application of Regression Training (RT) techniques to forecast monthly equity premium out-of-sample recursively with an expanding window method. A broad category of sophisticated regression models involving model complexity was employed. The RT models include Ridge, Forward-Backward (FOBA) Ridge, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), Relaxed LASSO, Elastic Net, and Least Angle Regression were trained and used to forecast the equity premium out-of-sample. In this study, the empirical investigation of the RT models demonstrates significant evidence of equity premium predictability both statistically and economically relative to the benchmark historical average, delivering significant utility gains. They seek to provide meaningful economic information on mean-variance portfolio investment for investors who are timing the market to earn future gains at minimal risk. Thus, the forecasting models appeared to guarantee an investor in a market setting who optimally reallocates a monthly portfolio between equities and risk-free treasury bills using equity premium forecasts at minimal risk.

Keywords: regression training, out-of-sample forecasts, expanding window, statistical predictability, economic significance, utility gains

Procedia PDF Downloads 107

Authors: Kassahun Birhanu Tadesse, Megersa Olumana Dinka

Abstract:

Reliable future river flow information is basic for planning and management of any river systems. For data scarce river system having only a river flow records like the Waterval River, a univariate time series models are appropriate for river flow forecasting. In this study, a univariate Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was applied for forecasting Waterval River flow using GRETL statistical software. Mean monthly river flows from 1960 to 2016 were used for modeling. Different unit root tests and Mann-Kendall trend analysis were performed to test the stationarity of the observed flow time series. The time series was differenced to remove the seasonality. Using the correlogram of seasonally differenced time series, different SARIMA models were identified, their parameters were estimated, and diagnostic check-up of model forecasts was performed using white noise and heteroscedasticity tests. Finally, based on minimum Akaike Information (AIc) and Hannan-Quinn (HQc) criteria, SARIMA (3, 0, 2) x (3, 1, 3)12 was selected as the best model for Waterval River flow forecasting. Therefore, this model can be used to generate future river information for water resources development and management in Waterval River system. SARIMA model can also be used for forecasting other similar univariate time series with seasonality characteristics.

Keywords: heteroscedasticity, stationarity test, trend analysis, validation, white noise

Procedia PDF Downloads 205

Authors: Fariza Yunus, Jasmee Jaafar, Zamalia Mahmud, Nurul Nisa’ Khairul Azmi, Nursalleh K. Chang, Nursalleh K. Chang

Abstract:

Variation of air temperature from one place to another is cause by air temperature controls. In general, the most important control of air temperature is elevation. Another significant independent variable in estimating air temperature is the location of meteorological stations. Distances to coastline and land use type are also contributed to significant variations in the air temperature. On the other hand, in homogeneous terrain direct interpolation of discrete points of air temperature work well to estimate air temperature values in un-sampled area. In this process the estimation is solely based on discrete points of air temperature. However, this study presents that air temperature controls also play significant roles in estimating air temperature over homogenous terrain of Peninsular Malaysia. An Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) interpolation technique was adopted to generate continuous data of air temperature. This study compared two different datasets, observed mean monthly data of T, and estimation error of T–T’, where T’ estimated value from a multiple regression model. The multiple regression model considered eight independent variables of elevation, latitude, longitude, coastline, and four land use types of water bodies, forest, agriculture and build up areas, to represent the role of air temperature controls. Cross validation analysis was conducted to review accuracy of the estimation values. Final results show, estimation values of T–T’ produced lower errors for mean monthly mean air temperature over homogeneous terrain in Peninsular Malaysia.

Keywords: air temperature control, interpolation analysis, peninsular Malaysia, regression model, air temperature

Procedia PDF Downloads 374

Authors: Malkanthi S. H. P., Ishana A. S. F., Sivashankar P.

Abstract:

This research was conducted to study prospective visitors’ expectation and future behavior regarding agro tourism destinations in spice gardens (spice tourism) in Kolonna. A field survey was conducted for the 40 randomly selected local and foreign visitors who have come to visit three famous tourism destinations in Kolonna namely “Maduwanwela Walawwa”, “Wawulpane Limestone cave” and “Panamure Eth gala” during three month of time period from February to April 2014. Descriptive and Chi square statistical tests were used to analyze the data. The results revealed that 98% of visitors were willing to visit the spice tourism destinations. Furthermore, visitors with urban residency, higher education level and employment opportunities revealed an association with having awareness on agro tourism. Moreover, visitors having higher age, higher level of education and higher amount of monthly income revealed an association with the willingness to visit spice tourism destinations. Nevertheless, out of eight demographic factors, three factors; gender, occupation and income had significant effect on willingness to purchase spice products from Kolonna. According to research findings it can be concluded that there are large number of perspective visitors for spice tourism and they are middle aged, educated and having significant monthly income and they are also very much interest to visit spice tourism destinations and buy spice products (high demand). Therefore, it is significantly beneficial to establish spice tourism destinations in spice gardens by successful spice cultivating farmers or owners as an extra income earning activity in Kolonna area.

Keywords: agro tourism, spice gardens, perception, prospective visitors, Sri Lanka

Procedia PDF Downloads 254

Authors: Haidy S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin

Abstract:

Copper is an essential raw material used in the construction industry. During the year 2021 and the first half of 2022, the global market suffered from a significant fluctuation in copper raw material prices due to the aftermath of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, which exposed its consumers to an unexpected financial risk. Thereto, this paper aims to develop two ANN-LSTM price prediction models, using Python, that can forecast the average monthly copper prices traded in the London Metal Exchange; the first model is a multivariate model that forecasts the copper price of the next 1-month and the second is a univariate model that predicts the copper prices of the upcoming three months. Historical data of average monthly London Metal Exchange copper prices are collected from January 2009 till July 2022, and potential external factors are identified and employed in the multivariate model. These factors lie under three main categories: energy prices and economic indicators of the three major exporting countries of copper, depending on the data availability. Before developing the LSTM models, the collected external parameters are analyzed with respect to the copper prices using correlation and multicollinearity tests in R software; then, the parameters are further screened to select the parameters that influence the copper prices. Then, the two LSTM models are developed, and the dataset is divided into training, validation, and testing sets. The results show that the performance of the 3-Month prediction model is better than the 1-Month prediction model, but still, both models can act as predicting tools for diverse economic situations.

Keywords: copper prices, prediction model, neural network, time series forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 113

Authors: Iris Vogeler, Rogerio Cichota, Armin Werner

Abstract:

Dairy farms are under pressure to increase productivity while reducing environmental impacts. Effective fertiliser management practices are critical to achieve this. Determination of optimum nitrogen (N) fertilisation rates which maximise pasture growth and minimise N losses is challenging due to variability in plant requirements and likely near-future supply of N by the soil. Remote sensing can be used for mapping N nutrition status of plants and to rapidly assess the spatial variability within a field. An algorithm is, however, lacking which relates the N status of the plants to the expected yield response to additions of N. The aim of this simulation study was to develop a multi-variate model for determining N fertilisation rate for a target percentage of the maximum achievable yield based on the pasture N concentration (ii) use of an algorithm for guiding fertilisation rates, and (iii) evaluation of the model regarding pasture yield and N losses, including N leaching, denitrification and volatilisation. A simulation study was carried out using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM). The simulations were done for an irrigated ryegrass pasture in the Canterbury region of New Zealand. A multi-variate model was developed and used to determine monthly required N fertilisation rates based on pasture N content prior to fertilisation and targets of 50, 75, 90 and 100% of the potential monthly yield. These monthly optimised fertilisation rules were evaluated by running APSIM for a ten-year period to provide yield and N loss estimates from both nonurine and urine affected areas. Comparison with typical fertilisation rates of 150 and 400 kg N/ha/year was also done. Assessment of pasture yield and leaching from fertiliser and urine patches indicated a large reduction in N losses when N fertilisation rates were controlled by the multi-variate model. However, the reduction in leaching losses was much smaller when taking into account the effects of urine patches. The proposed approach based on biophysical modelling to develop a multi-variate model for determining optimum N fertilisation rates dependent on pasture N content is very promising. Further analysis, under different environmental conditions and validation is required before the approach can be used to help adjust fertiliser management practices to temporal and spatial N demand based on the nitrogen status of the pasture.

Keywords: APSIM modelling, optimum N fertilization rate, pasture N content, ryegrass pasture, three dimensional surface response function.

Procedia PDF Downloads 130

Authors: Imran Badshah

Abstract:

Pedestrian service time reflects the performance of the facility, and it’s a key parameter to analyze the capability of facilities provided to serve pedestrians. The level of service of pedestrians (LOS) mainly depends on pedestrian time and safety. The pedestrian time utilized by taking a service is mainly influenced by the number of available services and the time utilized by each pedestrian in receiving a service; that is called a delay time. In this paper, we analyzed the simulated pedestrian service time with different delay times. A simulation is performed in AnyLogic by developing a model that reflects the real scenario of pedestrian services such as ticket machine gates at rail stations, airports, shopping malls, and cinema halls. The simulated pedestrian time is determined for various delay values. The simulated result shows how pedestrian time changes with the delay pattern. The histogram and time plot graph of a model gives the mean, maximum and minimum values of the pedestrian time. This study helps us to check the behavior of pedestrian time at various services such as subway stations, airports, shopping malls, and cinema halls.

Keywords: agent-based simulation, anylogic model, pedestrian behavior, time delay

Procedia PDF Downloads 210

Authors: Pongsawee Supanonth

Abstract:

This study aims to investigate the consumer behavior and marketing mixed factor affect on consumer decision making for independent movies presented in Lido cinema. The research method will use quantitative research, data was collected by questionnaires distributed to the audience in the Lido cinema for 400 sample by accidental sampling technique. Data was analyzed by descriptive statistic including percentage, mean, standard deviation and inferential statistic including independent t-test for hypothesis testing. The results showed that marketing mixed factors affecting consumer decision-making for Independent movies presented in Lido cinema by gender as different as less than the 0.05 significance level, it was found that the kind of movie ,quality of theater ,price of ticket, facility of watching movies, staff services and promotion of Lido cinema respectively had a vital influence on their attention and response which makes the advertisement more attractive is in harmony with the research hypotheses also.

Keywords: consumer behavior, marketing mixed factor, resonance, consumer decision making, Lido cinema

Procedia PDF Downloads 311

Authors: Jackqueline Uy, Hannah Miriam Verano, Crysler Luis Verbo, Irene Gueco

Abstract:

Educational tours are part of the curriculum of the College of Tourism and Hospitality Management, De La Salle University-Dasmarinas. They are highly significant to the students, especially Tourism students. The purpose of this study was to determine how effective educational tours were as a learning tool using the Experiential Learning Theory by David Kolb. This study determined the demographic profile of the third year tourism students in terms of gender, section, educational tours joined, and monthly family income and lastly, this study determined if there is a significant difference between the demographic profile of the respondents and their assessment of educational tours as a learning tool. The researchers used a historical research design with the third-year students of the bachelor of science in tourism management as the population size and used a random sampling method. The researchers made a survey questionnaire and utilized statistical tools such as weighted mean, frequency distribution, percentage, standard deviation, T-test, and ANOVA. The result of the study answered the profile of the respondents such as the gender, section, educational tour/s joined, and family monthly income. The findings of the study showed that the 3rd year tourism management students strongly agree that educational tours are a highly effective learning tool in terms of active experimentation, concrete experience, reflective observation, and abstract conceptualisation based on the data gathered from the respondents.

Keywords: CTHM, educational tours, experiential learning theory, De La Salle University Dasmarinas, tourism

Procedia PDF Downloads 173

Authors: Hang Meng, Wen-Bin Liu, Bi Xiao, Kai-Jun Ma, Jian-Hui Xie, Geng Fei, Tian-Ye Zhang, Lu-Yi Xu, Dong-Chuan Zhang

Abstract:

The victims in water are often found in the coastal region, along river region or the region with lakes. In China, the examination for the bodies of victims in the water is conducted by forensic doctors working in the public security bureau. Because the enter water time for most of the victims are not clear, and often lack of monitor images and other information, so to find out the corpse enter water time for victims is very difficult. After the corpse of the victim enters the water, it sinks first, then corruption gas produces, which can make the density of the corpse to be less than water, and thus rise again. So the factor that determines the corpse floating time is temperature. On the basis of the temperature data obtained in Shanghai region of China (Shanghai is a north subtropical marine monsoon climate, with an average annual temperature of about 17.1℃. The hottest month is July, the average monthly temperature is 28.6℃, and the coldest month is January, the average monthly temperature is 4.8℃). This study selected about 100 cases with definite corpse enter water time and corpse floating time, analyzed the cases and obtained the empirical law of the corpse floating time. For example, in the Shanghai region, on June 15th and October 15th, the corpse floating time is about 1.5 days. In early December, the bodies who entered the water will go up around January 1st of the following year, and the bodies who enter water in late December will float in March of next year. The results of this study can be used to roughly estimate the water enter time of the victims in Shanghai. Forensic doctors around the world can also draw on the results of this study to infer the time when the corpses of the victims in the water go up.

Keywords: corpse enter water time, corpse floating time, drowning, forensic pathology, victims in the water

Procedia PDF Downloads 196

Authors: N. Damenia, E. Kharaishvili, N. Sagareishvili, M. Saghareishvili

Abstract:

Women's Employment is one of the most important issues in the global economy. The article discusses the stated topic in Georgia, through historical content, Soviet experience, and modern perspectives. The paper discusses segmentation insa terms of employment and related problems. Based on statistical analysis, women's unemployment rate and its factors are analyzed. The level of employment of women in Transcaucasia (Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan) is discussed and is compared with Baltic countries (Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia). The study analyzes women’s level of development, according to the average age of marriage and migration level. The focus is on Georgia's Association Agreement with the EU in 2014, which includes economic, social, trade and political issues. One part of it is gender equality at workplaces. According to the research, the average monthly remuneration of women managers in the financial and insurance sector equaled to 1044.6 Georgian Lari, while in overall business sector average monthly remuneration equaled to 961.1 GEL. Average salaries are increasing; however, the employment rate remains problematic. For example, in 2017, 74.6% of men and 50.8% of women were employed from a total workforce. It is also interesting that the proportion of men and women at managerial positions is 29% (women) to 71% (men). Based on the results, the main recommendation for government and civil society is to consider women as a part of the country’s economic development. In this aspect, the experience of developed countries should be considered. It is important to create additional jobs in urban or rural areas and help migrant women return and use their working resources properly.

Keywords: employment of women, segregation in terms of employment, women's employment level in Transcaucasia, migration level

Procedia PDF Downloads 116

Authors: Narumon Piaseu

Abstract:

This survey research was aimed to describe and compare consumption behavior of health risk food among students in Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. Sample included 400 undergraduate students enrolled in the first semester of 2008 academic year. Data were collected by using self reported questionnaire developed by the researcher. Data were then analyzed by descriptive statistics including frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation, and inferential statistics including independent t-test, and Oneway ANOVA. Results revealed that most of the sample were women (67%), enrolled in social related programs (74%). Approximately half of them (45.5%) stayed in dormitory. The mean of monthly income was 5,164 Baht and daily food expenditure was 114.55 Baht. Majority of them (83%) had ready-to-eat food. A major factor influencing their food selection was their parents (61%). A main reason for their food selection was food that looks good (70.75%). Almost half of them (46.25%) had heavy exercise less than 3 times per week. Regarding knowledge on health risk food, 43.5% of the sample had good knowledge. The followings were moderate (41%) and poor (41%). Most of the sample (60.75%) had consumption behavior at low risk. The following was at moderate risk (37.25%). Only 2% were at high risk. Among the sample, consumption behavior of health risk food were significantly different in years of study (F = 3.168, p = .024), daily food expenditure (F = 8.950, p <.001), and knowledge on health risk food (F = 37.856, p <.001), while no significant difference in consumption behavior of health risk food was found in those with a difference in gender, program of study, living place, and monthly income. Results indicate the importance of providing knowledge regarding health risk food for students and their parents in order to promote appropriate food consumption behavior among the students.

Keywords: food consumption, risky behavior, Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University, health risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 472

Authors: Tannia Vindel, Angel Matute, Erik Elvir, Kelvin Santos

Abstract:

Currently in Honduras, is been incentivized the generation of energy using renewable fonts, such as: hydroelectricity, wind power, biomass and, more recently with the strongest growth, photovoltaic energy. In July 2015 were installed 455.2 MW of photovoltaic energy, increasing by 24% the installed capacity of the national interconnected system existing in 2014, according the National Energy Company (NEC), that made possible reduce the thermoelectric dependency of the system. Given the good results of those large-scale photovoltaic plants, arises the question: is it interesting for the distribution utility and for the consumers the integration of photovoltaic systems in micro-scale in the urban and rural areas? To answer that question has been researched the insertion of photovoltaic energy in the residential sector in Tegucigalpa and Comayagüela (Central District), Honduras to determine the technical and economic viability. Francisco Morazán department, according the National Statistics Institute (NSI), in 2001 had more than 180,000 houses with power service. Tegucigalpa, department and Honduras capital, and Comayagüela, both, have the highest population density in the region, with 1,300,000 habitants in 2014 (NSI). The residential sector in the south-central region of Honduras represents a high percentage being 49% of total consumption, according with NEC in 2014; where 90% of this sector consumes in a range of 0 to 300 kWh / month. All this, in addition to the high level of losses in the transmission and distribution systems, 31.3% in 2014, and the availability of an annual average solar radiation of 5.20 kWh/(m2∙day) according to the NASA, suggests the feasibility of the implementation of photovoltaic systems as a solution to give a level of independency to the households, and besides could be capable of injecting the non-used energy to the grid. The capability of exchange of energy with the grid could make the photovoltaic systems acquisition more affordable to the consumers, because of the compensation energy programs or other kinds of incentives that could be created. Technical viability of the photovoltaic systems insertion has been analyzed, considering the solar radiation monthly average to determine the monthly average of energy that would be generated with the technology accessible locally and the effects of the injection of the energy locally generated on the grid. In addition, the economic viability has been analyzed too, considering the photovoltaic systems high costs, costs of the utility, location and monthly energy consumption requirements of the families. It was found that the inclusion of photovoltaic systems in Tegucigalpa and Comayagüela could decrease in 6 MW the demand for the region if 100% of the households use photovoltaic systems, which acquisition may be more accessible with the help of government incentives and/or the application of energy exchange programs.

Keywords: grid connected, photovoltaic, residential, technical analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 263

Authors: Alireza Nikbakht Shahbazi

Abstract:

There are various factors that affect climate changes; drought is one of those factors. Investigation of efficient methods for estimating climate change impacts on drought should be assumed. The aim of this paper is to investigate climate change impacts on drought in Karoon3 watershed located south-western Iran in the future periods. The atmospheric general circulation models (GCM) data under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios should be used for this purpose. In this study, watershed drought under climate change impacts will be simulated in future periods (2011 to 2099). Standard precipitation index (SPI) as a drought index was selected and calculated using mean monthly precipitation data in Karoon3 watershed. SPI was calculated in 6, 12 and 24 months periods. Statistical analysis on daily precipitation and minimum and maximum daily temperature was performed. LRAS-WG5 was used to determine the feasibility of future period's meteorological data production. Model calibration and verification was performed for the base year (1980-2007). Meteorological data simulation for future periods under General Circulation Models and climate change IPCC scenarios was performed and then the drought status using SPI under climate change effects analyzed. Results showed that differences between monthly maximum and minimum temperature will decrease under climate change and spring precipitation shall increase while summer and autumn rainfall shall decrease. The precipitation occurs mainly between January and May in future periods and summer or autumn precipitation decline and lead up to short term drought in the study region. Normal and wet SPI category is more frequent in B1 and A2 emissions scenarios than A1B.

Keywords: climate change impact, drought severity, drought frequency, Karoon3 watershed

Procedia PDF Downloads 240

Authors: Dimphna Ezikanyi, Gloria Sakwari

Abstract:

Airborne pollen and fungal spores are major triggers of allergies, and their abundance and seasonality depend on plant responses to climatic and meteorological variables. A survey of seasonal prevalence of airborne pollen and fungal spores in Nsukka, Enugu, South- East Nigeria and relationship to climatic variables were carried out from Jan-June, 2017. The aim of the study was to access climate change and variability over time in the area and their accrued influence on modern pollen and spores rain. Decadal change in climate was accessed from variables collected from meteorological centre in the study area. Airborne samples were collected monthly using a modified Tauber-like pollen samplers raised 5 ft above ground level. Aerosamples collected were subjected to acetolysis. Dominant pollen recorded were those of Poaceae, Elaeis guinensis Jacq. and Casuarina equisetifolia L. Change in weather brought by onset of rainfall evoked sporulation and dispersal of diverse spores into ambient air especially potent allergenic spores with the spores of Ovularia, Bispora, Curvularia, Nigrospora, Helminthosporium preponderant; these 'hydrophilic fungi' were abundant in the rainy season though in varying quantities. Total fungal spores correlated positively with monthly rainfall and humidity but negatively with temperature. There was a negative though not significant correlation between total pollen count and rainfall. The study revealed a strong influence of climatic variables on abundance and spatial distribution of pollen and fungal spores in the ambient atmosphere.

Keywords: allergy, fungal spores, pollen, weather parameters

Procedia PDF Downloads 176

Authors: Muhammad Faizan Rehman Qureshi, Ahmed Al-Kaisy

Abstract:

Accurate estimation of traffic loads is critical for pavement and bridge design, among other transportation applications. Given the disproportional impact of heavier axle loads on pavement and bridge structures, truck and heavy vehicle traffic is expected to be a major determinant of traffic load estimation. Further, heavy vehicle traffic is also a major input in transportation planning and economic studies. The traditional method for estimating heavy vehicle traffic primarily relies on AADT estimation using Monthly Day of the Week (MDOW) adjustment factors as well as the percent heavy vehicles observed using statewide data collection programs. The MDOW factors are developed using daily and seasonal (or monthly) variation patterns for total traffic, consisting predominantly of passenger cars and other smaller vehicles. Therefore, while using these factors may yield reasonable estimates for total traffic (AADT), such estimates may involve a great deal of approximation when applied to heavy vehicle traffic. This research aims at assessing the approximation involved in estimating heavy vehicle traffic using MDOW adjustment factors for total traffic (conventional approach) along with three other methods of using MDOW adjustment factors for total trucks (class 5-13), combination-unit trucks (class 8-13), as well as adjustment factors for each vehicle class separately. Results clearly indicate that the conventional method was outperformed by the other three methods by a large margin. Further, using the most detailed and data intensive method (class-specific adjustment factors) does not necessarily yield a more accurate estimation of heavy vehicle traffic.

Keywords: traffic loads, heavy vehicles, truck traffic, adjustment factors, traffic data collection

Procedia PDF Downloads 23

Authors: M. Mulumpwa, W. W. L. Jere, M. Lazaro, A. H. N. Mtethiwa

Abstract:

The study considered Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) processes to select an appropriate stochastic model to forecast the monthly data from the Lake Malawi water levels for the period 1986 through 2015. The appropriate model was chosen based on SARIMA (p, d, q) (P, D, Q)S. The Autocorrelation function (ACF), Partial autocorrelation (PACF), Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), Box–Ljung statistics, correlogram and distribution of residual errors were estimated. The SARIMA (1, 1, 0) (1, 1, 1)12 was selected to forecast the monthly data of the Lake Malawi water levels from August, 2015 to December, 2021. The plotted time series showed that the Lake Malawi water levels are decreasing since 2010 to date but not as much as was the case in 1995 through 1997. The future forecast of the Lake Malawi water levels until 2021 showed a mean of 474.47 m ranging from 473.93 to 475.02 meters with a confidence interval of 80% and 90% against registered mean of 473.398 m in 1997 and 475.475 m in 1989 which was the lowest and highest water levels in the lake respectively since 1986. The forecast also showed that the water levels of Lake Malawi will drop by 0.57 meters as compared to the mean water levels recorded in the previous years. These results suggest that the Lake Malawi water level may not likely go lower than that recorded in 1997. Therefore, utilisation and management of water-related activities and programs among others on the lake should provide room for such scenarios. The findings suggest a need to manage the Lake Malawi jointly and prudently with other stakeholders starting from the catchment area. This will reduce impacts of anthropogenic activities on the lake’s water quality, water level, aquatic and adjacent terrestrial ecosystems thereby ensuring its resilience to climate change impacts.

Keywords: forecasting, Lake Malawi, water levels, water level fluctuation, climate change, anthropogenic activities

Procedia PDF Downloads 230

Authors: Richard Vuijk, Arnoud Arntz

Abstract:

Rationale: To our knowledge treatment of personality disorder comorbidity in adults with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is understudied and is still in its infancy: We do not know if treatment of personality disorders may be applicable to adults with ASD. In particular, it is unknown whether patients with ASD benefit from experiential techniques that are part of schema therapy developed for the treatment of personality disorders. Objective: The aim of the study is to investigate the efficacy of a schema mode focused treatment with adult clients with ASD and comorbid personality pathology (i.e. at least one personality disorder). Specifically, we investigate if they can benefit from both cognitive-behavioral, and experiential interventions. Study design: A multiple baseline case series study. Study population: Adult individuals (age > 21 years) with ASD and at least one personality disorder. Participants will be recruited from Sarr expertise center for autism in Rotterdam. The study requires 12 participants. Intervention: The treatment protocol consists of 35 weekly offered sessions, followed by 10 monthly booster sessions. A multiple baseline design will be used with baseline varying from 5 to 10 weeks, with weekly supportive sessions. After baseline, a 5-week exploration phase follows with weekly sessions during which current and past functioning, psychological symptoms, schema modes are explored, and information about the treatment will be given. Then 15 weekly sessions with cognitive-behavioral interventions and 15 weekly sessions with experiential interventions will be given. Finally, there will be a 10-month follow-up phase with monthly booster sessions. Participants are randomly assigned to baseline length, and respond weekly during treatment and monthly at follow-up on Belief Strength of negative core beliefs (by VAS), and fill out SMI, SCL-90 and SRS-A 7 times during screening procedure (i.e. before baseline), after baseline, after exploration, after cognitive and behavioral interventions, after experiential interventions, and after 5- and 10- month follow-up. The SCID-II will be administered during screening procedure (i.e. before baseline), at 5- and at 10-month follow-up. Main study parameters: The primary study parameter is negative core beliefs. Secondary study parameters include schema modes, personality disorder manifestations, psychological symptoms, and social interaction and communication. Discussion: To the best of author’s knowledge so far no study has been published on the application of schema mode focused interventions in adult patients with ASD and comorbid PD(s). This study offers the first systematic test of application of schema therapy for adults with ASD. The results of this study will provide initial evidence for the effectiveness of schema therapy in treating adults with both ASD and PD(s). The study intends to provide valuable information for future development and implementation of therapeutic interventions for adults with both ASD and PD(s).

Keywords: adults, autism spectrum disorder, personality disorder, schema therapy

Procedia PDF Downloads 239

Authors: Osman Turkoglu, Alvin Estilo, Ritu Gupta, Liliam Pineda-Salgado, Rajesh Pandey

Abstract:

Background: Hepatotoxicity can be linked to a variety of clinical symptoms and histopathological signs, posing a great challenge in the surveillance of suspected drug-induced liver injury (DILI) cases in the safety database. Additionally, the majority of such cases are rare, idiosyncratic, highly unpredictable, and tend to demonstrate unique individual susceptibility; these qualities, in turn, lend to a pharmacovigilance monitoring process that is often tedious and time-consuming. Objective: Develop a multifactorial algorithm to assist pharmacovigilance physicians in identifying high-risk hepatotoxicity cases associated with DILI from the sponsor’s safety database (Argus). Methods: Multifactorial selection criteria were established using Structured Query Language (SQL) and the TIBCO Spotfire® visualization tool, via a combination of word fragments, wildcard strings, and mathematical constructs, based on Hy’s law criteria and pattern of injury (R-value). These criteria excluded non-eligible cases from monthly line listings mined from the Argus safety database. The capabilities and limitations of these criteria were verified by comparing a manual review of all monthly cases with system-generated monthly listings over six months. Results: On an average, over a period of six months, the algorithm accurately identified 92% of DILI cases meeting established criteria. The automated process easily compared liver enzyme elevations with baseline values, reducing the screening time to under 15 minutes as opposed to multiple hours exhausted using a cognitively laborious, manual process. Limitations of the algorithm include its inability to identify cases associated with non-standard laboratory tests, naming conventions, and/or incomplete/incorrectly entered laboratory values. Conclusions: The newly developed multifactorial algorithm proved to be extremely useful in detecting potential DILI cases, while heightening the vigilance of the drug safety department. Additionally, the application of this algorithm may be useful in identifying a potential signal for DILI in drugs not yet known to cause liver injury (e.g., drugs in the initial phases of development). This algorithm also carries the potential for universal application, due to its product-agnostic data and keyword mining features. Plans for the tool include improving it into a fully automated application, thereby completely eliminating a manual screening process.

Keywords: automation, drug-induced liver injury, pharmacovigilance, post-marketing

Procedia PDF Downloads 152